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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot

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  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Councils in England are planning an average council tax increase this year of 0.6%, according to a survey.

    The annual survey was carried out by the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA).

    Communities Secretary Eric Pickles said the government had "worked with councils to freeze council tax", and had cut it in real terms.

    The biggest increase will occur in the South East outside London, where average council tax is set to go up by 0.8%, or £11.35.
    Continue reading the main story

    In London, the average bill will fall by £5.39

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26420496

    Council tax in Cardiff will rise by 3.97% which is quite typical of Wales under Welsh Labour.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    edited March 2014

    According to last night's Radio Scotland news interview with Aberdeen Labour Cllr Willie Rennie it will be every SNP Scottish government minister who is banned from all Aberdeen council property.
    Willie Young.
    I think Cllr Young might actually be a wee bit deranged. Not very impressive whichever way you look at him, which makes the SNP retention of Aberdeen Donside a slightly hollow victory.


  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    edited March 2014
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Antifrabk

    antifrank said:

    London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

    I watched that program, it was very interesting.

    Not sure that anyone has any real solutions to the 'issue', or even if anything should be done about it...
    Oh no! What a terrible disaster! Britain has one of the world's most successful city (perhaps even the world's most successful city). What fresh calamity can be heaped on our heads?

    The comedy moment was when the bloke from Yorkshire said "we've got plenty of space up here" pointing to verdant hills. Given that it's near impossible to get so much as 25 houses built anywhere near anyone in such rural outposts I did wonder what planet he was living on.
    The most unrealistic moment came when Evan turned his hand to being a Tube ticket barrier man. He did a great job when being a dock crane worker but was far too helpful and polite when giving directions as a Tube worker -how unrealistic can you get!
    He even smiled as he gave advice which surely must be against Union rules
    What did the programme tell us that we didn't already know?
    A few things - Evan can land a cargo for instance but most things were just confirming things we suspected like Yorkshire has grumpy men and hills and everyone rushes around without talking to anyone in London. You cannot tell if people are grumpy in London or just mute as they never speak. There are however hybrids who travel from the north (presumably to get away from professional northerners) and once they arrive in London try to be jolly and talkative even if its about silly things like marketing . They get weird looks
    It was reasonably interesting if you like infrastructure and buildings and transport stuff though -like me
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    George Eaton bigs up Ed's role in SIndyRef:

    Why Ed Miliband is Alex Salmond's biggest foe in the fight for Scottish independence
    The Scottish First Minister's claim that independence would make Scotland and the rest of the UK more "progressive" is undermined by the prospect of the election of Labour in 2015.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/why-ed-miliband-alex-salmonds-biggest-foe-fight-scottish-independence
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    It's going to really annoy me if the BBC is going to pronounce Sevastopol as SevasTOPol instead of as we know and love SeVAStopol. The "v" is bad enough as it is.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited March 2014
    After the threat of war in the Ukraine has somewhat diminished, the markets have recovered some of their losses of yesterday.

    Brent crude has recovered 1.4% and the FTSE just over 1%, but markets are very nervous and any bashing of swords on shields from the USA today could reverse the situation.

    Has Putin's bluff been called or has he achieved his objective?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Charles said:



    The point isn't that they ever voted Tory, although i'm sure plenty voted for Thatcher; the point is they aren't going to be voting LD now either. Hence they are back with Labour. Which will keep Labour around the mid to high 30s.

    Yes, though I'm not sure that will persist after some years of relatively austere Labour government (which is what we'll get, Tory propaganda and far-left hopes to the contrary). The public sector vote tends to be anti-government since the government are seen as the bosses. In fact I suspect (but am too lazy to check) that much of the decline in the Labour vote from 1997-2010 was in the public sector.

    The big worry I have about Labour is not the headline spending - which will be constrained. It's the fact that they are captured by the vested interests in sectors that need major reform - education, health and welfare - in order to meet ever increasing consumer demands and to equip the next generation for an ever more competitive world.
    So after 5 years of fruitless Tory meddling education, welfare and health would STILL need reform?

    Labour will win govern a few months, and at the Autuimn Statement, will rightly trash Osborne's legacy and pivot away from it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,959
    edited March 2014
    An interesting piece about calcium and concrete, but it does make a schoolboy error:
    "Nevertheless, these early concretes remained brittle and weak, which is why most buildings continued to be made of stone and brick.

    The breakthrough came in the 1840s."

    Concrete was used in the Colosseum's construction. Not sure 'brittle' or 'weak' would be the first adjectives that spring to mind when describing it.

    Also, the Romans developed cement that would set underwater and used it to improve their harbours.

    Edited extra bit, ahem 2, forgot the link (again): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26416749
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Just noticed a move in IndyRef prices from Ladbrokes - No 1/6, Yes 11/2, under/over Yes % 40

    How queer... You can back yes at 11/2 and no at 1/4

    £15.30@11/2 and £80@1/4 and you have a free pint of lager
    A free pint in September - that's the problem :)

    Does seem that Yes's heart not head strategy isn't cutting the mustard.
    Or have ten time those amounts on, and a free lunch for onewith no alcohol at the restaurant under discussion last night... In Sep!

    Surely that 11/2 will get smashed? For one it is almost 3% better than Betfair, and @Stuart Dickson who seems to know betting, reckons 4/1 was decent

    If the 11/2 lasts more than an hour or two it is would seem the Nats on here don't believe what they say
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    George Eaton bigs up Ed's role in SIndyRef:

    Why Ed Miliband is Alex Salmond's biggest foe in the fight for Scottish independence
    The Scottish First Minister's claim that independence would make Scotland and the rest of the UK more "progressive" is undermined by the prospect of the election of Labour in 2015.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/why-ed-miliband-alex-salmonds-biggest-foe-fight-scottish-independence

    So Ed is helping by doing nothing ? Probably true...


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Financier said:

    After the threat of war in the Ukraine has somewhat diminished, the markets have recovered some of their losses of yesterday.

    Brent crude has recovered 1.4% and the FTSE just over 1%, but markets are very nervous and any bashing of swords on shields from the USA today could reverse the situation.

    Has Putin's bluff been called or has he achieved his objective?

    Brent crude recovered ? Its never really gone down.

    Putin's objective always was simply to gain back the Crimea. He'll achieve it with the snap referendum to be held there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Russia and China said to be in agreement over Ukraine.

    I wonder if the Republic of China is looking nervously at developments from Taipei.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Re: the London programme.

    Regret I could not watch it, as just as I settled down to do so was interrupted by a 2 hour call by elder son from Kerala.

    However I am in London enough to know that London has become a mecca for multinational young people (aged 25-45) who are educated, aspirational, are doers and achievers and who very often are successful.

    Then I return to some of our regions where success is viewed as getting short term funding or grants from the local authority!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    Miss Vance, I saw on the news last night that Salmond was coming to London for a speech.

    He's not 'jetting in for the day' to 'deliver a lecture' surely? I thought he didn't approve of that sort of thing?

    I wonder if he's going to do an interview with the SNP's broadcaster of choice, Russia TV too?
    I didn't know that London was having a referendum to separate from the UK, in Unionist parlance ...





  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    The wall of good news is built brick by brick

    Yesterday manufacturing, today construction. The CIPS/Markit PMI for UK Construction was released a few minutes ago.

    Headline Points

    - Construction increases for tenth month in a row
    - Civil Engineering overtakes housing as strongest area of growth
    - Job creation hits three month high

    The overall index however fell off its 77 month high in January, recording 62.6 against 64.6. Given the record rainfall in February and the impact of the consequent floods, this is an extremely strong reading.

    Services PMI tomorrow - the big one for impact on GDP - but it is beginning to look as if 2014 is continuing the strong, above forecast, growth, of the last year. This bodes well for all key metrics of the economy, particularly debt, deficits and cash pots with which "to reward the success of hard working families" in upcoming budgets.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited March 2014
    TGOHF said:

    George Eaton bigs up Ed's role in SIndyRef:

    Why Ed Miliband is Alex Salmond's biggest foe in the fight for Scottish independence
    The Scottish First Minister's claim that independence would make Scotland and the rest of the UK more "progressive" is undermined by the prospect of the election of Labour in 2015.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/why-ed-miliband-alex-salmonds-biggest-foe-fight-scottish-independence

    So Ed is helping by doing nothing ? Probably true...


    "But its appeal is diluted by one central fact: there is a better-than-average chance that the next UK general election will result in the formation of a RADICAL Labour government.", says Mr Eaton (capitals mine) ..."He has pledged to scrap the bedroom tax (which, like the Poll Tax, has become a symbol of Conservative callousness in Scotland), to reverse the privatisation of the NHS, to invest more in early-years education and childcare, to reintroduce the 50p tax rate, to spread the use of the living wage, to rebalance the economy and to increase infrastructure spending. He has condemned the invasion of Iraq (which so alienated progressives in Scotland and elsewhere), prevented a rush to war in Syria and pledged to pursue a foreign policy based on "values, not alliances". He has denounced the rise in income inequality and has made its reversal his defining mission. "

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Carnyx said:

    TGOHF said:

    George Eaton bigs up Ed's role in SIndyRef:

    Why Ed Miliband is Alex Salmond's biggest foe in the fight for Scottish independence
    The Scottish First Minister's claim that independence would make Scotland and the rest of the UK more "progressive" is undermined by the prospect of the election of Labour in 2015.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/why-ed-miliband-alex-salmonds-biggest-foe-fight-scottish-independence

    So Ed is helping by doing nothing ? Probably true...


    "But its appeal is diluted by one central fact: there is a better-than-average chance that the next UK general election will result in the formation of a RADICAL Labour government.", says Mr Eaton (capitals mine) ..."He has pledged to scrap the bedroom tax (which, like the Poll Tax, has become a symbol of Conservative callousness in Scotland), to reverse the privatisation of the NHS, to invest more in early-years education and childcare, to reintroduce the 50p tax rate, to spread the use of the living wage, to rebalance the economy and to increase infrastructure spending. He has condemned the invasion of Iraq (which so alienated progressives in Scotland and elsewhere), prevented a rush to war in Syria and pledged to pursue a foreign policy based on "values, not alliances". He has denounced the rise in income inequality and has made its reversal his defining mission. "

    If anyone believes that then they will be sorely disappointed next May and for the next 5 years.

  • Patrick said:

    Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

    It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

    Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

    If anything Devo-Max is even more messy in terms of negotiations than full independence is.
    Yeah but at least we get to keep the £ ;-)

    Quite what will happen to the West Lothian Question with Devo-Max is anyone's guess.
    Then there is the Barnett formula too, given the greater fiscal autonomy that any settlement would confer...
    WLQ is the most important. We need to stop Scottish MPs voting on English health, education, policing , etc bills. It's wrong.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited March 2014
    See that Wales has finally woken up to the facts that:

    1. Children need parental interest and encouragement to progress in Maths and not to hear the subject being disparaged at home.

    2. Good teachers are essential and that it takes over one year to remove bad ones.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26423130

    Surely this is just common sense for even Welsh Labour!!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    'Russian soldiers have fired warning shots into the air as around 300 Ukrainian troops demanded their jobs back at Belbek air base in Crimea.'

    http://news.sky.com/story/1220477/ukraine-russian-troops-fire-warning-shots

    Dumb move. One doesn't want disgruntled, unemployed soldiers on the loose if you're trying to keep everyone onside, and peaceful. The US learnt that in Iraq.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Just noticed a move in IndyRef prices from Ladbrokes - No 1/6, Yes 11/2, under/over Yes % 40

    How queer... You can back yes at 11/2 and no at 1/4

    £15.30@11/2 and £80@1/4 and you have a free pint of lager
    A free pint in September - that's the problem :)

    Does seem that Yes's heart not head strategy isn't cutting the mustard.
    Or have ten time those amounts on, and a free lunch for onewith no alcohol at the restaurant under discussion last night... In Sep!

    Surely that 11/2 will get smashed? For one it is almost 3% better than Betfair, and @Stuart Dickson who seems to know betting, reckons 4/1 was decent

    If the 11/2 lasts more than an hour or two it is would seem the Nats on here don't believe what they say
    Hills have taken £200 at 1/4 for No. Laddies max stake £25 at 11/2
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    AveryLP said:

    The wall of good news is built brick by brick

    Yesterday manufacturing, today construction. The CIPS/Markit PMI for UK Construction was released a few minutes ago.

    Headline Points

    - Construction increases for tenth month in a row
    - Civil Engineering overtakes housing as strongest area of growth
    - Job creation hits three month high

    The overall index however fell off its 77 month high in January, recording 62.6 against 64.6. Given the record rainfall in February and the impact of the consequent floods, this is an extremely strong reading.

    Services PMI tomorrow - the big one for impact on GDP - but it is beginning to look as if 2014 is continuing the strong, above forecast, growth, of the last year. This bodes well for all key metrics of the economy, particularly debt, deficits and cash pots with which "to reward the success of hard working families" in upcoming budgets.

    We've seen a lot recently of how the relentlessly sunny uplands painted by the PMIs get tempered by actual hard data.

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    So the story so far is..an adviser on child porn has some on his computer..wow..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

    It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

    Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

    If anything Devo-Max is even more messy in terms of negotiations than full independence is.
    Yeah but at least we get to keep the £ ;-)

    Quite what will happen to the West Lothian Question with Devo-Max is anyone's guess.
    Then there is the Barnett formula too, given the greater fiscal autonomy that any settlement would confer...
    WLQ is the most important. We need to stop Scottish MPs voting on English health, education, policing , etc bills. It's wrong.
    Bur do they really? Really, is this a problem at all? Most of those bills aren't 'English' at all as they have Barnett consequentials. The SNP don't vote on truly English bills. Okay, Labour do, but they are Unionists and One Nationers anyway.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Shadsy the Ladbrokes odds compiler also likes to have a punt.

    I'd imagine he's hammered into the 1/4 with his own money at Hills.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468

    An interesting piece about calcium and concrete, but it does make a schoolboy error:
    "Nevertheless, these early concretes remained brittle and weak, which is why most buildings continued to be made of stone and brick.

    The breakthrough came in the 1840s."

    Concrete was used in the Colosseum's construction. Not sure 'brittle' or 'weak' would be the first adjectives that spring to mind when describing it.

    Also, the Romans developed cement that would set underwater and used it to improve their harbours.

    Edited extra bit, ahem 2, forgot the link (again): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26416749

    Without turning the thread into an engineering-fest, I think the poor qualities of Roman and early concretes was a reason why it did not catch on.

    Even nowadays, getting consistency between concrete batches is important, and slump cones and sample tests are done, often daily. Back in those days, getting it right would have been guesswork rather than a science.

    Perhaps what we are seeing are the 'good' bits of concrete that they got right, the poor bits long since having been destroyed or fallen down.

    Interestingly for me, there are newish forms of concrete that instead of rebar, use fibres thrown into the matrix to prevent cracking, an analogue of the horsehair used by the Romans and others.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concrete_slump_test
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Just did today's Yougov VI poll with supplementaries on attitudes to Putin/Ukraine and on taking out products from firms based in an independent Scotland.
  • Carnyx said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

    It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

    Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

    If anything Devo-Max is even more messy in terms of negotiations than full independence is.
    Yeah but at least we get to keep the £ ;-)

    Quite what will happen to the West Lothian Question with Devo-Max is anyone's guess.
    Then there is the Barnett formula too, given the greater fiscal autonomy that any settlement would confer...
    WLQ is the most important. We need to stop Scottish MPs voting on English health, education, policing , etc bills. It's wrong.
    Bur do they really? Really, is this a problem at all? Most of those bills aren't 'English' at all as they have Barnett consequentials. The SNP don't vote on truly English bills. Okay, Labour do, but they are Unionists and One Nationers anyway.

    Scottish Labour MPs most certianly do vote on eg education bills. Even though their constituents are not impacted. I don't care if they are unionists. In that case let Westminster decide Scottish education policy. If not their MPs should not vote. It is simply wrong.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    OT

    Interesting Report on the Subject

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/10673512/Britains-schools-need-a-Chinese-lesson.html

    "Shanghai is ... a city on the rise, in every sense. The real surprises, though, are to be found in its schools....

    By age 16, the average pupil in Shanghai is three years ahead of ours in maths. Their poorest pupils are a full year ahead of our richest.

    The teachers are... friendly and professional. The children were excited to be there, answering questions and rushing up to the blackboard to explain their solution to the rest of the class. Teachers explained the concepts clearly; students then practised the questions for short, concentrated bursts and were given instant feedback.

    In China, topics were dissected and discussed to a much greater extent. Examples got progressively harder throughout the lesson. Children faced the front of the class, so there was complete focus on the teacher – who was able to spot whether the children were paying attention. Teachers specialise at primary as well as in secondary school, with separate instructors for maths and English. And crucially, they spend much of their day giving feedback to students and discussing the best techniques with their colleagues.

    Actually, their teaching time is similar to ours. But they use it much more efficiently. Children practise some examples at home and the teacher marks the work straight away, providing one-to-one support if the child does not get it. Problems are diagnosed through feedback. Maths is taught every day in primary and secondary school. They make sure that no child falls behind.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Carnyx said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

    It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

    Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

    If anything Devo-Max is even more messy in terms of negotiations than full independence is.
    Yeah but at least we get to keep the £ ;-)

    Quite what will happen to the West Lothian Question with Devo-Max is anyone's guess.
    Then there is the Barnett formula too, given the greater fiscal autonomy that any settlement would confer...
    WLQ is the most important. We need to stop Scottish MPs voting on English health, education, policing , etc bills. It's wrong.
    Bur do they really? Really, is this a problem at all? Most of those bills aren't 'English' at all as they have Barnett consequentials. The SNP don't vote on truly English bills. Okay, Labour do, but they are Unionists and One Nationers anyway.

    One nation under God, One nation under Ed Miliband.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    Patrick said:

    Carnyx said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

    It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

    Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

    If anything Devo-Max is even more messy in terms of negotiations than full independence is.
    Yeah but at least we get to keep the £ ;-)

    Quite what will happen to the West Lothian Question with Devo-Max is anyone's guess.
    Then there is the Barnett formula too, given the greater fiscal autonomy that any settlement would confer...
    WLQ is the most important. We need to stop Scottish MPs voting on English health, education, policing , etc bills. It's wrong.
    Bur do they really? Really, is this a problem at all? Most of those bills aren't 'English' at all as they have Barnett consequentials. The SNP don't vote on truly English bills. Okay, Labour do, but they are Unionists and One Nationers anyway.

    Scottish Labour MPs most certianly do vote on eg education bills. Even though their constituents are not impacted. I don't care if they are unionists. In that case let Westminster decide Scottish education policy. If not their MPs should not vote. It is simply wrong.

    One might wonder, when it was for so long acceptable for EWNI MPs to vote on Scottish bills, why the WLQ has suddenly become a problem. But, seriously, I take the point - if it is seen as a problem then it may be one.

    I'm just sceptical how much it is a real problem and how much it is genuine at all given the prevalence of the Barnett formula and how much it is being whipped up spuriously for whatever motives the perpetrators have. Is there any decent recent study?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BenM said:

    AveryLP said:

    The wall of good news is built brick by brick

    Yesterday manufacturing, today construction. The CIPS/Markit PMI for UK Construction was released a few minutes ago.

    Headline Points

    - Construction increases for tenth month in a row
    - Civil Engineering overtakes housing as strongest area of growth
    - Job creation hits three month high

    The overall index however fell off its 77 month high in January, recording 62.6 against 64.6. Given the record rainfall in February and the impact of the consequent floods, this is an extremely strong reading.

    Services PMI tomorrow - the big one for impact on GDP - but it is beginning to look as if 2014 is continuing the strong, above forecast, growth, of the last year. This bodes well for all key metrics of the economy, particularly debt, deficits and cash pots with which "to reward the success of hard working families" in upcoming budgets.

    We've seen a lot recently of how the relentlessly sunny uplands painted by the PMIs get tempered by actual hard data.

    We have, Ben?

    I haven't noticed. Perhaps you should give some examples.

    In construction, the corrections made have been in the completely opposite direction to that you have claimed. Early ONS figures, such as the -0.3% fall in 2013 Q4 Construction Sector output, were revised upward in their second estimate by 0.5%, indicating that the PMIs were more accurate indicators of real performance than ONS's first estimates.

    I wouldn't go so far as to suggest that you are spamming PB with misinformation, but your post does contain some suspicious allegations. Perhaps you should, like ONS, issue a revised second estimate?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    BenM said:

    AveryLP said:

    The wall of good news is built brick by brick

    Yesterday manufacturing, today construction. The CIPS/Markit PMI for UK Construction was released a few minutes ago.

    Headline Points

    - Construction increases for tenth month in a row
    - Civil Engineering overtakes housing as strongest area of growth
    - Job creation hits three month high

    The overall index however fell off its 77 month high in January, recording 62.6 against 64.6. Given the record rainfall in February and the impact of the consequent floods, this is an extremely strong reading.

    Services PMI tomorrow - the big one for impact on GDP - but it is beginning to look as if 2014 is continuing the strong, above forecast, growth, of the last year. This bodes well for all key metrics of the economy, particularly debt, deficits and cash pots with which "to reward the success of hard working families" in upcoming budgets.

    We've seen a lot recently of how the relentlessly sunny uplands painted by the PMIs get tempered by actual hard data.

    The picture which they paint is pretty similar.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited March 2014
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100261889/ukip-are-now-a-racist-party/
    What tree is this chap swinging from? I've never read him before, but I do wonder. I don't know my Kipper politics - but it was a bunch of radical lefties, one of the two arrested being English, who chased Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (and that is hardly cruelty to Mr F). If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-hits-back-at-fascist-hecklers-in-edinburgh-pub-8619819.html
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @JJ

    I love Scotch as much as you do, but you really need to open your mind to whiskeys from nations other than Scotland. The Welsh do a sublime single malt called Penderynn, while there are plenty of superb Irish brews. If you are in the mood for a sweeter tot I can recommend Woodford Reserve or the harder-to-find Elijah Craig from the United States.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Is ComRes out today?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Unfortunately , the figures in the tables in the header are incorrect . As I have pointed out before the figures given are after eliminating DKs and WNV .
    For Populus the correct figures are on Table 2 Q2 Page 17
    LD to Lab switchers 25% and Con to UKIP switchers 15%

    That's how we do polling analysis. We net them off.
    Otherwise we'd have polls with both big parties marooned somewhere in the 20s.

    Who is we? People that can't interpret numbers properly?
    Do you think you might be a teensy weensy bit obsessed? If you really don't like the way the numbers are presented you might be better off writing to Mike and the the Daily Mail rather than badgering me. It's tiresome.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Carnyx said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100261889/ukip-are-now-a-racist-party/
    What tree is this chap swinging from? I've never read him before, but I do wonder. I don't know my Kipper politics - but it was a bunch of radical lefties, one of the two arrested being English, who chased Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (and that is hardly cruelty to Mr F). If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-hits-back-at-fascist-hecklers-in-edinburgh-pub-8619819.html

    Other than that, Hodges is (strangely) right.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Carnyx said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100261889/ukip-are-now-a-racist-party/
    What tree is this chap swinging from? I've never read him before, but I do wonder. I don't know my Kipper politics - but it was a bunch of radical lefties, one of the two arrested being English, who chased Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (and that is hardly cruelty to Mr F). If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-hits-back-at-fascist-hecklers-in-edinburgh-pub-8619819.html

    When reading Dan Hodges you have to bear in mind the overriding imperative that everything should be bad for Ed Miliband. So the correct way to parse this article would be to remember that continuing UKIP success will make it easier for Labour to win more seats. Hodges doesn't want this, so it's time to try and undermine UKIP.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    Carnyx said:

    If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    Just one of many strong contenders for reasons why Hodges shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    @isam You've said previously that bookies are just reacting to the money on the YES/NO price for Scottish independence.

    I think this 11/2 from Ladbrokes is different - This is their odds compiler, Shadsy saying it WON'T happen and hoovering up all the Yes cash. He's taking quite a big view considering every other bookie is at 7-2 best price ! And he's often right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    @Theuniondivvie I assume you've made several shop trips to take out a wodge of the 11/2 from Ladbrokes on YES ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    Carnyx said:

    If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    Just one of many strong contenders for reasons why Hodges shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.
    Polruan said:

    Carnyx said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100261889/ukip-are-now-a-racist-party/
    What tree is this chap swinging from? I've never read him before, but I do wonder. I don't know my Kipper politics - but it was a bunch of radical lefties, one of the two arrested being English, who chased Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (and that is hardly cruelty to Mr F). If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-hits-back-at-fascist-hecklers-in-edinburgh-pub-8619819.html

    When reading Dan Hodges you have to bear in mind the overriding imperative that everything should be bad for Ed Miliband. So the correct way to parse this article would be to remember that continuing UKIP success will make it easier for Labour to win more seats. Hodges doesn't want this, so it's time to try and undermine UKIP.
    Thanks to both of you. A curious view for a Labour activist, even a pro-Dave M one, so I've just looked him up on Wikipedia - I'm not sure I'm left much the wiser!

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited March 2014
    Carnyx said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100261889/ukip-are-now-a-racist-party/
    What tree is this chap swinging from? I've never read him before, but I do wonder. I don't know my Kipper politics - but it was a bunch of radical lefties, one of the two arrested being English, who chased Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (and that is hardly cruelty to Mr F). If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-hits-back-at-fascist-hecklers-in-edinburgh-pub-8619819.html

    Breitbart say they were from the 'Radical Independence Campaign' which looks like an SWP type outfit.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/02/11/Anti-Israel-anti-UKIP-anti-Thatcher-activist-to-be-handed-Scottish-tax-payer-cash

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_Independence_Campaign

    But the Independent article you link to has an SNP spokesman defending their behaviour, so Mr Hodges linking them to the SNP is not so odd.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    Pulpstar said:

    @Theuniondivvie I assume you've made several shop trips to take out a wodge of the 11/2 from Ladbrokes on YES ?

    I've already got quite a bit on at 11/2 & 5/1 from months ago. Spare cash is going on the campaign at the moment.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Carnyx said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100261889/ukip-are-now-a-racist-party/
    What tree is this chap swinging from? I've never read him before, but I do wonder. I don't know my Kipper politics - but it was a bunch of radical lefties, one of the two arrested being English, who chased Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (and that is hardly cruelty to Mr F). If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-hits-back-at-fascist-hecklers-in-edinburgh-pub-8619819.html

    It's a pretty thin article, like Damian Thompson's.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited March 2014

    Carnyx said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100261889/ukip-are-now-a-racist-party/
    What tree is this chap swinging from? I've never read him before, but I do wonder. I don't know my Kipper politics - but it was a bunch of radical lefties, one of the two arrested being English, who chased Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (and that is hardly cruelty to Mr F). If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-hits-back-at-fascist-hecklers-in-edinburgh-pub-8619819.html

    Breitbart say they were from the 'Radical Independence Campaign' which looks like an SWP type outfit.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/02/11/Anti-Israel-anti-UKIP-anti-Thatcher-activist-to-be-handed-Scottish-tax-payer-cash

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_Independence_Campaign

    But the Independent article you link to has an SNP spokesman defending their behaviour, so Mr Hodges linking them to the SNP is not so odd.
    [edited] Thanks - my knowledge of Sparts tends to be restricted to the traditional Tommy Sheridan Trots. But the SNP person doesn't defend the Wolfies, surely? The SNP person talks about something completely different, a BBC interview, no mention of the demo.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    In reply to Nick's question:

    At the last Euro election votes were counted by council area in England and Scotland, and by Westminster constituency in Wales. I don't know the reason for the difference.

    In fact I think this is how results have been counted since 1999:

    1999: by Westminster constituency in the whole of GB
    2004: by council area in England, by Westminster constituency in Scotland and Wales
    2009: by council area in England and Scotland, by Westminster constituency in Wales

    Maybe they'll change it again this time and count by council area everywhere in GB.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014
    BobaFett said:

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Unfortunately , the figures in the tables in the header are incorrect . As I have pointed out before the figures given are after eliminating DKs and WNV .
    For Populus the correct figures are on Table 2 Q2 Page 17
    LD to Lab switchers 25% and Con to UKIP switchers 15%

    That's how we do polling analysis. We net them off.
    Otherwise we'd have polls with both big parties marooned somewhere in the 20s.

    Who is we? People that can't interpret numbers properly?
    Do you think you might be a teensy weensy bit obsessed? If you really don't like the way the numbers are presented you might be better off writing to Mike and the the Daily Mail rather than badgering me. It's tiresome.
    You keep using the word obsessed, not at all

    Is it possible to be a "teensy weeny bit " obsessed? If it were only a teensy weensy bit, it wouldn't be obessive would it.

    You showed complete inability to interpret polling numbers and I love proving you wrong, the Mail and Mike have nothing to do with it

    You produced a poll that showed labour to have the lowest percentage ofworking age people in work , then said it showed labour were the party o f the working man! Priceless!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @isam

    You choose to interpret them that way. If you don't like the way Mike and the Daily Mail have chosen to interpret them, you would probably be better off writing to them than obsessing over me. Good luck with your campaign. This matter is closed from my POV and I won't be responding to anymore of your posts on it, it being entirely boring to me and everyone else.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Carnyx said:

    It's a curious idea, given the likely public meetings that we will be seeing over the next few months. And given the kind of people they already welcome to Aberdeen Council property ...

    http://wklondon.typepad.com/welcome_to_optimism/2014/02/mrs-christie-michael-gove-and-old-school-strictness.html


    SNP also having their conference in Aberdeen in council owned building, Young is a halfwit, Labour have lost the plot.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Miss Vance, I saw on the news last night that Salmond was coming to London for a speech.

    He's not 'jetting in for the day' to 'deliver a lecture' surely? I thought he didn't approve of that sort of thing?

    I wonder if he's going to do an interview with the SNP's broadcaster of choice, Russia TV too?
    Unlike the cowards in Westminster he is able to answer questions and is happy to talk to the press, he does not need prearranged lapdogs to ask patsy questions. Keep up the good work.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    AndyJS said:

    In reply to Nick's question:

    At the last Euro election votes were counted by council area in England and Scotland, and by Westminster constituency in Wales. I don't know the reason for the difference.

    In fact I think this is how results have been counted since 1999:

    1999: by Westminster constituency in the whole of GB
    2004: by council area in England, by Westminster constituency in Scotland and Wales
    2009: by council area in England and Scotland, by Westminster constituency in Wales

    Maybe they'll change it again this time and count by council area everywhere in GB.

    For London - is 'Council Area' equivalent to London Borough, or do they do something odd like Assembly seats (Lambeth + Southwark together)?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    There are about 160 000 doctors in the country, and according to Pulse surveys more than half voted Conservative in 2010. The public sector is not monolithically Labour, though mostly more left wing than similar private sector earners.



    TGOHF said:

    One of those key sectors of the electorate is disproportionately represented by public sector workers - especially professionals, and lord only knows that the current administration, and in particular the Tory part, has done nothing whatsoever to endear themselves to it. They are going to Labour and not coming back. The other sector could be categorised broadly as disgruntled boomers; they despise Cameron and Clegg and like politics the way The Daily Express and Farage package it. If Farage gets airtime in the run up to GE 2015, he may just hold onto enough of these people.

    Not sure public sector workers ever voted Con in great swathes - and its a shrinking group as spending returns to more affordable levels.
    What do you expect , the very highly paid doctors vote Tory to keep their high pay while the arse wipers vote Labour to try and get a decent wage. Same as most other jobs, the elite are for the Tories , surprise surprise.
    Malcolm you should know full well that in Scotland large swathes of what you describe as "the elite" vote Liberal. It is no accident that 20% of Scottish LibDem MPs come from the Landed Gentry/Aristocracy, i.e. my MP the Viscount Thurso and Aberdeenshire West's brainy Baronet Sir Robert Smith.
    Easterross , I should have elaborated but was quoting on the rUK , given Fox was talking about the English NHS.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    So the story so far is..an adviser on child porn has some on his computer..wow..

    That struck me too - he could be one of the few people in the country to legitimately be in possession of such images....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Oh goody! Salmond to denounce Osbourne's 'monumental error' just as the polls turn:

    Independence support drops after George Osborne's Scottish pound warning
    But Alex Salmond will today argue the Chancellor's rejection of a currency union with an independent Scotland is a "monumental error".


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10674124/Independence-support-drops-after-George-Osbornes-Scottish-pound-warning.html

    Keep the lies coming , you and Scottp make a fair pair of wally dugs.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    Miss Vance, I saw on the news last night that Salmond was coming to London for a speech.

    He's not 'jetting in for the day' to 'deliver a lecture' surely? I thought he didn't approve of that sort of thing?

    I wonder if he's going to do an interview with the SNP's broadcaster of choice, Russia TV too?
    he does not need prearranged lapdogs to ask patsy questions. Keep up the good work.
    You mean like when he delivered his counter blast (sic) to Osborne to a pro-Indy business group? Feel the courage!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Just noticed a move in IndyRef prices from Ladbrokes - No 1/6, Yes 11/2, under/over Yes % 40

    How queer... You can back yes at 11/2 and no at 1/4

    £15.30@11/2 and £80@1/4 and you have a free pint of lager
    A free pint in September - that's the problem :)

    Does seem that Yes's heart not head strategy isn't cutting the mustard.
    Only seems that way from down south, in the real world it is a different story.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    Oh goody! Salmond to denounce Osbourne's 'monumental error' just as the polls turn:

    Independence support drops after George Osborne's Scottish pound warning
    But Alex Salmond will today argue the Chancellor's rejection of a currency union with an independent Scotland is a "monumental error".


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10674124/Independence-support-drops-after-George-Osbornes-Scottish-pound-warning.html

    Keep the lies coming , you and Scottp make a fair pair of wally dugs.
    What lies?

    The Ipsos MORI survey for STV found 34 per cent of undecided voters are more likely to vote ‘no’ in September’s referendum following Mr Osborne’s warning the remainder of the UK would refuse a formal deal to share the pound.

    This compared with 16 per cent who said they were more inclined to back independence after the Chancellor’s intervention and 44 per cent who said their position had not changed.

    Overall, support for leaving the UK was down two points at 32 per cent compared to an identical survey conducted in December, while opposition to independence remained unchanged at 57 per cent.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    BobaFett said:

    @isam

    You choose to interpret them that way. If you don't like the way Mike and the Daily Mail have chosen to interpret them, you would probably be better off writing to them than obsessing over me. Good luck with your campaign. This matter is closed from my POV and I won't be responding to anymore of your posts on it, it being entirely boring to me and everyone else.

    For some reason some people do not like the idea that the poll in question indicates that Labour has a higher percentage of its supporters in work than any other party. I am not sure why they would have a problem with that, but there you go.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    edited March 2014

    So the story so far is..an adviser on child porn has some on his computer..wow..

    That struck me too - he could be one of the few people in the country to legitimately be in possession of such images....
    If so, then a complete feckin idiot for not having it triple stamped, franked and sanctioned before hand.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Just noticed a move in IndyRef prices from Ladbrokes - No 1/6, Yes 11/2, under/over Yes % 40

    How queer... You can back yes at 11/2 and no at 1/4

    £15.30@11/2 and £80@1/4 and you have a free pint of lager
    A free pint in September - that's the problem :)

    Does seem that Yes's heart not head strategy isn't cutting the mustard.
    Or have ten time those amounts on, and a free lunch for onewith no alcohol at the restaurant under discussion last night... In Sep!

    Surely that 11/2 will get smashed? For one it is almost 3% better than Betfair, and @Stuart Dickson who seems to know betting, reckons 4/1 was decent

    If the 11/2 lasts more than an hour or two it is would seem the Nats on here don't believe what they say
    Or they also cannot afford the cheap restaurant from last night and have more pressing needs for their cash or do not want to bet on it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Pulpstar said:

    Shadsy the Ladbrokes odds compiler also likes to have a punt.

    I'd imagine he's hammered into the 1/4 with his own money at Hills.

    Money down the drain
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Drive-by question: whatever happened to Rennard and his legal threats? Did I miss something?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    In reply to Nick's question:

    At the last Euro election votes were counted by council area in England and Scotland, and by Westminster constituency in Wales. I don't know the reason for the difference.

    In fact I think this is how results have been counted since 1999:

    1999: by Westminster constituency in the whole of GB
    2004: by council area in England, by Westminster constituency in Scotland and Wales
    2009: by council area in England and Scotland, by Westminster constituency in Wales

    Maybe they'll change it again this time and count by council area everywhere in GB.

    For London - is 'Council Area' equivalent to London Borough, or do they do something odd like Assembly seats (Lambeth + Southwark together)?
    No it's just ordinary council areas like Lambeth. In places with two councils it's the district/borough council, not the county council.

    The 2009 results are on pages 41-50 of this document:

    http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2009/rp09-053.pdf

    UKIP carried 9 council areas: Hull, Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Dudley, Hartlepool, Torridge, Plymouth, North Devon, Torbay.

    In 2004 they carried places like Castle Point.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BobaFett said:

    @isam

    You choose to interpret them that way. If you don't like the way Mike and the Daily Mail have chosen to interpret them, you would probably be better off writing to them than obsessing over me. Good luck with your campaign. This matter is closed from my POV and I won't be responding to anymore of your posts on it, it being entirely boring to me and everyone else.

    Mike didn't interpret them any way that I have seen, I don't know why you keep mentioning him.

    You interpreted them incorrectly to proclaim it was proof the Labour were the party of the working man

    I'm not personally attacking you, I would appreciate it if you stopped trying to make it seem as if that were the case. I'm merely correcting your misinformed interpretation... Not Mikes, not the .mails, yours.

    Imagine there are four hospitals in a county

    Hospital A saves 810 out of 1000 patients that have cancer
    Hospital B saves 168 out of 200 patients
    Hospital C saves 430 out of 500 patients
    Hospital D saves 675 out of 750 patients

    What you are saying is that Hospital A is the Hospital of cancer recovery, because it saved the most patients, but it would be misleading because it has the worst strike rate of the four in terms of saving lives

    This is a betting site, and boring as it maybe for you, interpreting stats correctly is crucially important
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100261889/ukip-are-now-a-racist-party/
    What tree is this chap swinging from? I've never read him before, but I do wonder. I don't know my Kipper politics - but it was a bunch of radical lefties, one of the two arrested being English, who chased Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (and that is hardly cruelty to Mr F). If Mr Hodges can't tell the difference between Labour and the SNP, maybe he shouldn't be writing a newspaper column.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-hits-back-at-fascist-hecklers-in-edinburgh-pub-8619819.html

    Breitbart say they were from the 'Radical Independence Campaign' which looks like an SWP type outfit.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/02/11/Anti-Israel-anti-UKIP-anti-Thatcher-activist-to-be-handed-Scottish-tax-payer-cash

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_Independence_Campaign

    But the Independent article you link to has an SNP spokesman defending their behaviour, so Mr Hodges linking them to the SNP is not so odd.
    [edited] Thanks - my knowledge of Sparts tends to be restricted to the traditional Tommy Sheridan Trots. But the SNP person doesn't defend the Wolfies, surely? The SNP person talks about something completely different, a BBC interview, no mention of the demo.

    Carnyx, I have told you before, any lie will do on here if it is used against the SNP. They are strangers to using the truth.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Without turning the thread into an engineering-fest"

    Why not Mr. Jessop, it would make a nice change from endless threads dominated by half a dozen ro so people stating their opinions on issues around Scottish independence.

    On a separate note from an earlier post, I think your friend is most misguided in declining to drink whiskey. I am a Laphroaig man myself but sometimes you can't get it and it isn't really a drink suitable for every occasion. If I am drinking a blend then I do tend to go for the Irish as I find them smoother, more mellow and better value than the Scottish equivalent.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014

    BobaFett said:

    @isam

    You choose to interpret them that way. If you don't like the way Mike and the Daily Mail have chosen to interpret them, you would probably be better off writing to them than obsessing over me. Good luck with your campaign. This matter is closed from my POV and I won't be responding to anymore of your posts on it, it being entirely boring to me and everyone else.

    For some reason some people do not like the idea that the poll in question indicates that Labour has a higher percentage of its supporters in work than any other party. I am not sure why they would have a problem with that, but there you go.
    Because it is misleading when not compared with the fact they also have the most of working age who are not working

    I thought you were a clever guy. This is obvious.


    This isn't a partisan point, I don't have a reason to big up Tories and denegrate labour, but the poll In question is bad for Labour on the point @Bobafett tried to make, and good for the Conservatives.

    Not personal, not partisan, just looking for the statistical truth
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,959
    Because the BBC cretinously decided to axe Gary Anderson I can't read all his stuff on Autosport. However, my extensive research (I typed 'Gary Anderson F1' into Twitter) reveals that he reckons Force India are third fastest with Ferrari fourth. I'd guess Mercedes are top, and perhaps Williams (or McLaren?) second.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    @isam - Labour is ahead in the polls and 60% of those saying they would vote Labour are in work. That is higher percentage than for any other party. Thus, more working people support Labour than support any other party - both in absolute and in percentage terms. There is no way around that, I'm afraid.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,959
    Mr. Jessop, not really my field, but I'd be surprised if the Romans didn't work out how to use concrete properly and consistently.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    In 2004 UKIP won loads of council areas in the East Midlands thanks to Robert Kilroy-Silk:

    http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2004/rp04-050.pdf

    It wasn't Castle Point they won in 2004, it was Tendring.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    This is very damaging to the Tories and underlines why there won't be a polling crossover anytime soon:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/04/o-10-ukraine-sanctions-gaffe-city-profits-diplomacy-britain-russia
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,959
    F1: final procrastinating post before I get some writing done, but James Allen largely agrees with that order:
    http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/analysis-the-pecking-order-after-the-most-unpredictable-f1-winter-tests-for-years/

    He has Mercedes then Williams, with Ferrari third and then Force India/McLaren a little way back.

    It'd be quite good if Williams bounced back, and amusing if Massa got axed and then found his way to a better team (in the same way Hulkenberg got turned down [effectively] by Lotus and seems to have ended up in a faster car).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Lord Ashcroft tells it like it is:

    The Conservative Party’s problem, then, is not that it is not attracting enough women; it is that it is not attracting enough of anybody. The striking thing in the polls is not the gender gap but the overall numbers of either sex who are prepared to say the Tories stand for opportunity or are on their side. It is not women who have a problem with the Conservatives, it is voters.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/03/conservatives-dont-attract-women-attract-everyone/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014

    @isam - Labour is ahead in the polls and 60% of those saying they would vote Labour are in work. That is higher percentage than for any other party. Thus, more working people support Labour than support any other party - both in absolute and in percentage terms. There is no way around that, I'm afraid.

    They also have more people of working age out of work in both absolute and percentage terms, but I m not using that as an argument because it is statistically misleading, as is the one you have just made

    I'm not saying what you say is untrue, but that given labour also lead the out of work numbers, it is not right to call them the party of the working man unless you are happy for them to be called the party of the unemployed
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    AndyJS said:

    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    In reply to Nick's question:

    At the last Euro election votes were counted by council area in England and Scotland, and by Westminster constituency in Wales. I don't know the reason for the difference.

    In fact I think this is how results have been counted since 1999:

    1999: by Westminster constituency in the whole of GB
    2004: by council area in England, by Westminster constituency in Scotland and Wales
    2009: by council area in England and Scotland, by Westminster constituency in Wales

    Maybe they'll change it again this time and count by council area everywhere in GB.

    For London - is 'Council Area' equivalent to London Borough, or do they do something odd like Assembly seats (Lambeth + Southwark together)?
    No it's just ordinary council areas like Lambeth. In places with two councils it's the district/borough council, not the county council.

    The 2009 results are on pages 41-50 of this document:

    http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2009/rp09-053.pdf

    UKIP carried 9 council areas: Hull, Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Dudley, Hartlepool, Torridge, Plymouth, North Devon, Torbay.

    In 2004 they carried places like Castle Point.
    Thanks very much - that's very helpful.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @isam

    You choose to interpret them that way. If you don't like the way Mike and the Daily Mail have chosen to interpret them, you would probably be better off writing to them than obsessing over me. Good luck with your campaign. This matter is closed from my POV and I won't be responding to anymore of your posts on it, it being entirely boring to me and everyone else.

    For some reason some people do not like the idea that the poll in question indicates that Labour has a higher percentage of its supporters in work than any other party. I am not sure why they would have a problem with that, but there you go.
    Because it is misleading when not compared with the fact they also have the most of working age who are not working
    Why is it misleading to mention a statistic without mentioning another statistic from a field of thousands of possible statistics, few of which will be mentioned? It may be another interesting way of looking at the data, but so would breaking it out by retirees, those of working age who are long-term vs short-term unemployed.... and so on.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    isam said:

    @isam - Labour is ahead in the polls and 60% of those saying they would vote Labour are in work. That is higher percentage than for any other party. Thus, more working people support Labour than support any other party - both in absolute and in percentage terms. There is no way around that, I'm afraid.

    They also have more people of working age out of work in both absolute and percentage terms, but I m not using that as an argument because it is statistically misleading, as is the one you have just made

    Why is it misleading? It is a statement of fact in terms of what the poll in question reported.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:

    Charles said:



    The point isn't that they ever voted Tory, although i'm sure plenty voted for Thatcher; the point is they aren't going to be voting LD now either. Hence they are back with Labour. Which will keep Labour around the mid to high 30s.

    Yes, though I'm not sure that will persist after some years of relatively austere Labour government (which is what we'll get, Tory propaganda and far-left hopes to the contrary). The public sector vote tends to be anti-government since the government are seen as the bosses. In fact I suspect (but am too lazy to check) that much of the decline in the Labour vote from 1997-2010 was in the public sector.

    The big worry I have about Labour is not the headline spending - which will be constrained. It's the fact that they are captured by the vested interests in sectors that need major reform - education, health and welfare - in order to meet ever increasing consumer demands and to equip the next generation for an ever more competitive world.
    So after 5 years of fruitless Tory meddling education, welfare and health would STILL need reform?

    Labour will win govern a few months, and at the Autuimn Statement, will rightly trash Osborne's legacy and pivot away from it.
    And that's exactly the problem. You want to reverse the changes without thought. They are not perfect, and I am sure there can be improvements, but a reversal just condemns another generation.

    Health - our resident (LibDem) doctor, foxinsox, was nervous at first but thinks they are working well in practice

    Welfare - the principal of making sure that you are better off working than on welfare at every point is good surely? There are significant non-financial benefits to the individuals of being in work

    Education - we've 30 years of LEA/local authority dominated education failing, and it continues to fail in Wales. Free Schools are still in their infancy, but seem to be offering a way out. What are you going to replace them with that hasn't been proven to fail in the past?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BenM said:

    This is very damaging to the Tories and underlines why there won't be a polling crossover anytime soon:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/04/o-10-ukraine-sanctions-gaffe-city-profits-diplomacy-britain-russia

    No it isn't 'very damaging to the Tories' and has as much to do with polling crossover as Harman's PIE. What will bring about 'crossover' is the economy - which is why the government is wise to avoid damaging it.....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    Mr. Jessop, not really my field, but I'd be surprised if the Romans didn't work out how to use concrete properly and consistently.

    One thinks of the Pantheon and, closer to home, the Roman Baths at Bath and the foundations of the temple at Colchester (now under the Castle I believe).

    Mr Jessop's point about a sort of Darwinian process of survival of old structures is however a good one - and is also applicable to much flimsier ones, e.g. the rarity of survival of ordinary domestic cottages unless there is some special reason (such as preservation as the birthplace of a Great Man).

    To be fair to the Romans, there have been cockups even in recent decades concrete-wise. One thinks of the high alumina cement of the 1970s that deteriorated too quickly, leadingb to collapsed roofs such as that at a Leicester University building.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    BenM said:

    This is very damaging to the Tories and underlines why there won't be a polling crossover anytime soon:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/04/o-10-ukraine-sanctions-gaffe-city-profits-diplomacy-britain-russia

    The Guardian has, as so often, jumped to a conclusion that is not justified by the facts - there is nothing in the memo which refers to protecting the interests of the City. However, let's imagine that that is indeed the motivation. Are we supposed to conclude that good government, seeking to protect our most important industry and the ONLY industry which has the faintest chance of generating significant growth in the short to medium term, is damaging to the Tories?

    Maybe so. Maybe cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-your face envy is a dominant political force in the UK. Maybe people really do want to wreck our most successful industry. In that case, the country will deserve everything it gets from the disaster of PM Miliband. The only consolation will be the amusement of watching the horror of Labour supporters as the consequences materialise.
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    If anyone wants to back YES in the indyref at 11/2, you can do so now at Ladbrokes. Obviously, that won't last for long, given that the best price with any other bookie is 7/2. Most people should be able to get £100 or so on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Russian President Vladimir Putin says there is no need yet to send Russian troops into Ukraine, but he does not rule out doing so as a "last resort".

    -----------

    Were troops into Iraq a last resort for us back in the day ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,959
    Mr. Carnyx, yeah, I do agree the Darwinian (as you put it) aspect has at least some truth to it. We see it with pop music (people remember Queen and the Beatles, but not Love Is A Rubber Ball Bouncing Back To Me) in living memory.

    That said, I also maintain that the Romans were clever chaps who would've worked that sort of thing out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited March 2014
    Paddy Power Annual report:

    In the first half of the year sports results went backwards and forwards like a naked Miley Cyrus riding a wrecking ball but overall showed their tendency to normalise with time (we hope the same is true for Miley!). After a strong start to the year, then a Cheltenham to forget (let’s just say that record for Irish-trained winners better never be broken), we got a dream Grand National result when Auroras Encore romped home at 66/1.

    We also teamed up with Stonewall, the lesbian, gay and bisexual charity, to tackle homophobia in football with our ‘Rainbow Laces’ campaign. We got the campaign noticed and trending globally on Twitter with messages like ‘We don’t care what team you play for’ and Paddy Power 'Right behind gay footballers' (#RBGF). Yes, the puns were a bit ‘Carry on Matron’, but it did the
    trick and players from 54 professional British clubs wore the rainbow laces. Social media and over 400 pieces of media coverage generated over half a billion impressions, and over a quarter of the UK adult population heard about the campaign. The campaign, like many of our initiatives, can be re-used in other geographies and we launched ‘Rainbow Laces’ in Italy last month.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BobaFett said:

    @JJ

    I love Scotch as much as you do, but you really need to open your mind to whiskeys from nations other than Scotland. The Welsh do a sublime single malt called Penderynn, while there are plenty of superb Irish brews. If you are in the mood for a sweeter tot I can recommend Woodford Reserve or the harder-to-find Elijah Craig from the United States.

    "Scotch" and "whiskey" indeed.

    BURN THE HERETIC

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Polruan said:

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @isam

    You choose to interpret them that way. If you don't like the way Mike and the Daily Mail have chosen to interpret them, you would probably be better off writing to them than obsessing over me. Good luck with your campaign. This matter is closed from my POV and I won't be responding to anymore of your posts on it, it being entirely boring to me and everyone else.

    For some reason some people do not like the idea that the poll in question indicates that Labour has a higher percentage of its supporters in work than any other party. I am not sure why they would have a problem with that, but there you go.
    Because it is misleading when not compared with the fact they also have the most of working age who are not working
    Why is it misleading to mention a statistic without mentioning another statistic from a field of thousands of possible statistics, few of which will be mentioned? It may be another interesting way of looking at the data, but so would breaking it out by retirees, those of working age who are long-term vs short-term unemployed.... and so on.
    Actually the example of the hospitals I gave earlier isn't correct, as labour do have the most people in work as a percentage, apologies.

    It is misleading because because it makes it seem as if you are more likely to have a job if you vote labour when you are also more likely to be unemployed.

    If it were on a programme like Watchdog, @Bobafett claim that labour are the part of the working man, would be ripped apart when it turned out they were also the party of the unemployed
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So the story so far is..an adviser on child porn has some on his computer..wow..

    Yes "wow".

    A good adviser should be able to work from prose descriptions, not actually need to view the images. If he had viewed the images then - at best - it could be morbid curiousity.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Theuniondivvie I assume you've made several shop trips to take out a wodge of the 11/2 from Ladbrokes on YES ?

    I've just had me some of that 11/2 on YES, as a hedge against my £100 with uniondivvie on NO, at... *cough*.... EVENS.
    Whatever it takes to get the capon to the cockfight.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014

    isam said:

    @isam - Labour is ahead in the polls and 60% of those saying they would vote Labour are in work. That is higher percentage than for any other party. Thus, more working people support Labour than support any other party - both in absolute and in percentage terms. There is no way around that, I'm afraid.

    They also have more people of working age out of work in both absolute and percentage terms, but I m not using that as an argument because it is statistically misleading, as is the one you have just made

    Why is it misleading? It is a statement of fact in terms of what the poll in question reported.

    Well that's exactly why it's misleading!

    Because it relies on another part of the poll, the fact that labour could just as easily be called the party of the unemployed, being hidden.

    If you went to a hospital for cancer treatment because it had the most people that survived five years, but weren't told it also had the most people who died instantly during treatment, wouldnt you think that misleading??
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Charles said:

    BenM said:

    Charles said:



    The point isn't that they ever voted Tory, although i'm sure plenty voted for Thatcher; the point is they aren't going to be voting LD now either. Hence they are back with Labour. Which will keep Labour around the mid to high 30s.

    Yes, though I'm not sure that will persist after some years of relatively austere Labour government (which is what we'll get, Tory propaganda and far-left hopes to the contrary). The public sector vote tends to be anti-government since the government are seen as the bosses. In fact I suspect (but am too lazy to check) that much of the decline in the Labour vote from 1997-2010 was in the public sector.

    The big worry I have about Labour is not the headline spending - which will be constrained. It's the fact that they are captured by the vested interests in sectors that need major reform - education, health and welfare - in order to meet ever increasing consumer demands and to equip the next generation for an ever more competitive world.
    So after 5 years of fruitless Tory meddling education, welfare and health would STILL need reform?

    Labour will win govern a few months, and at the Autuimn Statement, will rightly trash Osborne's legacy and pivot away from it.

    Welfare - the principal of making sure that you are better off working than on welfare at every point is good surely? There are significant non-financial benefits to the individuals of being in work
    It's not necessarily value for money. A large number of welfare recipients are carers - either for sick/disabled relatives, or for their children. For the statement "better off working" to be meaningful in respect of those people it means "earning enough to pay for the care that you would have been providing when not working" - that or the state has to provide free/subsidised care. The logic of carers' allowance arrangements tends to be that it's far cheaper to pay relatives to care than to fund state care services.

    The other consideration is that, at the margins of poverty incomes, you'd need a substantial premium for work to be worthwhile. For starters, the additional income from being in work has to cover basics like travel, suitable clothing and so on. And then there's the phenomenon we're aware of at the other end of the scale - the more hours you work, the more expensive life gets. If the difference between earning £50k and £100k is needing to buy more prepared food, take more taxis, hire a cleaner and so on, that's probably a good deal. It's not so good if the delta is a few hundred pounds a year.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sounds like the Cabinet meeting this am was fun..

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/cameron-and-osborne-lead-ambush-of-the-lib-dems-over-the-contents-of-the-queens-speech/

    "A dramatic Cabinet this morning as the Tories ambushed the Lib Dems over the contents of the Queen’s Speech. First, Cameron took them by surprise by demanding that a recall bill be included in the speech. This was quite a slap to the Liberal Democrats seeing as just last month they were publicly blaming Cameron and Osborne for the fact that a recall bill was not going to be included in the Queen’s Speech.

    But this wasn’t the only bit of Tory aggression this morning. For Osborne then took up the baton, pushing for the inclusion of an EU referendum bill in the coalition’s legislative agenda. David Laws and Nick Clegg dismissed this idea. But IDS then pointed out that the Liberal Democrats used to boast of being in favour of an In / Out referendum."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    shadsy said:

    If anyone wants to back YES in the indyref at 11/2, you can do so now at Ladbrokes. Obviously, that won't last for long, given that the best price with any other bookie is 7/2. Most people should be able to get £100 or so on.

    It's a stonking price for sure - whatever your view on the outcome.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    shadsy said:

    If anyone wants to back YES in the indyref at 11/2, you can do so now at Ladbrokes. Obviously, that won't last for long, given that the best price with any other bookie is 7/2. Most people should be able to get £100 or so on.

    It's a stonking price for sure - whatever your view on the outcome.
    Yes, what a pity it's a stonking price on the wrong side!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    David Cameron will never win a Commons majority!
This discussion has been closed.