"England, Wales and Scotland all now in favour of Irish unification, research shows The 2023 State of the Union survey examines attitudes towards constitutional issues in the UK"
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
"England, Wales and Scotland all now in favour of Irish unification, research shows The 2023 State of the Union survey examines attitudes towards constitutional issues in the UK"
“There are different reasons in different parts of the UK explaining the views taken about Northern Ireland leaving the Union. In England, it’s probably more the ‘bugger off’ variety. In Scotland, it’s probably, ‘Go and live your best life’.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
If you believe this, head over to Betfair and take the small amount of 1000/1 (well, 999/1) against a May election.
Is anyone watching ITV News? Rageh Omaar doesn’t seem at all well. I don’t think this is an auto cue problem but he’s finding it difficult to speak properly.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
If you believe this, head over to Betfair and take the small amount of 1000/1 (well, 999/1) against a May election.
Oops. Sorry. Did not read it properly: you predict a July election which is only 10 (or 9/1) on Betfair.
Bookmakers go 6/1 against July but also 6/1 (13/2 in a place) July to September. This shows how little attention bookmakers generally pay to politics markets, which is why there is occasionally good value, albeit to limited stakes.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Tory restaurant? Surely it has to be Le Gavroche. Inexplicably popular for 40 years, but tired and played out a long time ago. Finally went out of business as the result of the overpriced property market, the cost of living crisis and the loss of the patronage of Crispin Odey...
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
Good morning.
Top notch spoof, unless you are actually being serious. The Conservatives will not be trusted to run the economy again for a very long time.
John Major polled 30.7% in 1997 and there is no way this time they are going to get that high. Sub 30 looks odds on, evidenced by the ongoing slump in their opinion poll ratings. They are currently polling 6-9% below the 1997 figures for the commensurate period. That’s the maths of it.
The only part of your post which has possibility of traction is the July election. An intriguing idea. Unlikely, but not impossible.
I am just not buying the late GE. Even conservative home can see that a summer election is for the best
"When the public have decided a government is doomed, it can do little to shift its fate. Just ask John Major or Gordon Brown. We’re at the end of an age. It may be unappetising, but the voters are ready for Labour. The longer Sunak is seen to delay Starmer’s arrival out of a mixture of timidity and vanity, the angrier the voters will become at his squatting. Things can always get worse."
I am just not buying the late GE. Even conservative home can see that a summer election is for the best
"When the public have decided a government is doomed, it can do little to shift its fate. Just ask John Major or Gordon Brown. We’re at the end of an age. It may be unappetising, but the voters are ready for Labour. The longer Sunak is seen to delay Starmer’s arrival out of a mixture of timidity and vanity, the angrier the voters will become at his squatting. Things can always get worse."
David Davis has become a reverse bellwether. Whatever he says, you can know the opposite is the truth.
The longer this drags on now, the worse the Conservatives will perform. Especially if they take it into late autumn. November and January are the most miserable months of the year and it will be an even bigger electoral disaster if Sunak procrastinates until then.
p.s. if it’s true that Sunak is suddenly more relaxed then that might mean he has indeed decided to call an election. It has happened before with leaders: that once the speculation is over, and they see a flight to Rwanda LAX ahead, they relax.
I am just not buying the late GE. Even conservative home can see that a summer election is for the best
"When the public have decided a government is doomed, it can do little to shift its fate. Just ask John Major or Gordon Brown. We’re at the end of an age. It may be unappetising, but the voters are ready for Labour. The longer Sunak is seen to delay Starmer’s arrival out of a mixture of timidity and vanity, the angrier the voters will become at his squatting. Things can always get worse."
ConHome can see a summer election is best for whom? That is the key question imo.
Best for the country? No, Tories genuinely believe they are better than Labour for Britain. Best for Rishi? No, because his career in top-level politics will end. Best for backbenchers? No for most because they will stop being paid. Yes for others if they have a better chance of reelection. Best for the Conservative Party? Possibly but that is CCHQ's problem (and maybe ConHome's).
So of those groups, who controls or even influences the election date?
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
p.s. if it’s true that Sunak is suddenly more relaxed then that might mean he has indeed decided to call an election. It has happened before with leaders: that once the speculation is over, and they see a flight to Rwanda LAX ahead, they relax.
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Tory restaurant? Surely it has to be Le Gavroche. Inexplicably popular for 40 years, but tired and played out a long time ago. Finally went out of business as the result of the overpriced property market, the cost of living crisis and the loss of the patronage of Crispin Odey...
I've had two incredible meals at Gavroche, and one very disappointing one.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
Tomorrow morning I will do just over 1,000 vertical meters on my bike. As you are a lot more serious biker than me, I thought I should mention it.
"Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."
I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel
Presumably the point of the Kristi Noem dog/goat/horses story is the logical end of the gun ownership movement. What’s the point of having all those guns if you’re not going to use them? The gun fetishists will lap it up.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
Tomorrow morning I will do just over 1,000 vertical meters on my bike. As you are a lot more serious biker than me, I thought I should mention it.
700 VAM is the level for the keen amateur so your goal time is 1h 18m.
I've done Angliru, Zoncolan and Ventoux (all 1,500m+) and would say Angliru is the worst or best, depending on one's perspective and capacity to endure suffering.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
Tomorrow morning I will do just over 1,000 vertical meters on my bike. As you are a lot more serious biker than me, I thought I should mention it.
700 VAM is the level for the keen amateur so your goal time is 1h 18m.
I've done Angliru, Zoncolan and Ventoux (all 1,500m+) and would say Angliru is the worst or best, depending on one's perspective and capacity to endure suffering.
It's two 300m climbs and a 450m one, with some "relaxing" downhills in-between. I'll beat two hours, but I'd be overjoyed if I'm less than 1h50.
"Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."
I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel
I suppose it really hinges on how stupid the electorate is. When all is said and done, if people are capable of being taken in by this Rwanda stunt they probably deserve a few more years of Conservative government. But I don't think they are.
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
No way Trump will pick her now, then. He fails on both counts.
And if she did shoot him, as a Republican president she'd probably have immunity.
We know this because she told us in her book. She mentioned it "in an effort to show she's capable of dealing with anything that's 'difficult, messy and ugly."
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
There’s a certain amount of overconfidence there!
I’d say good morning everybody, but it appears to have been raining all night! And it’s still drizzling here. “Oh to be in England and now that April is here!” Mind, it was quite good yesterday!
No enthusiasm for SKS either so yes a turnout similar to 2001 is very likely imo..
Really interesting was 1997 when despite great need for change and enthusiasm for Blair, turnout fell quite sharply from 1992 and it's never been over 70% since.
"Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."
I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel
Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights… As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
Tomorrow morning I will do just over 1,000 vertical meters on my bike. As you are a lot more serious biker than me, I thought I should mention it.
700 VAM is the level for the keen amateur so your goal time is 1h 18m.
I've done Angliru, Zoncolan and Ventoux (all 1,500m+) and would say Angliru is the worst or best, depending on one's perspective and capacity to endure suffering.
It's two 300m climbs and a 450m one, with some "relaxing" downhills in-between. I'll beat two hours, but I'd be overjoyed if I'm less than 1h50.
42km for me yesterday, with 106 metres of ascent and descent. For some odd reason, it's quite hard to find decent climbs in this area...
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
No enthusiasm for SKS either so yes a turnout similar to 2001 is very likely imo..
Really interesting was 1997 when despite great need for change and enthusiasm for Blair, turnout fell quite sharply from 1992 and it's never been over 70% since.
Actually, in the great scheme of things, that’s quite a worrying thought!
No enthusiasm for SKS either so yes a turnout similar to 2001 is very likely imo..
Really interesting was 1997 when despite great need for change and enthusiasm for Blair, turnout fell quite sharply from 1992 and it's never been over 70% since.
The big drop was 2001 from 1997. I think due to being a foregone conclusion coupled with New Lab doing OK.
The "kick them out" motivation was there in 1997 and 2010, and will be there again this time too. I reckon a turnout something around 65%, but dropping sharply for 2028/9 GE.
The deciding factor may well be which demographics turn out. I expect a lack of enthusiasm from Tory CDE voters and the young.
Presumably the point of the Kristi Noem dog/goat/horses story is the logical end of the gun ownership movement. What’s the point of having all those guns if you’re not going to use them? The gun fetishists will lap it up.
Er nope.
The armaments are there (for MAGA grade righties) to Defend Your Family Against The Dark Horde*.
Part of this cult is the dog that, ideally, is part wolf. Will kill all strangers. Especially Dark Horde Strangers. Mans Best Friend - more than the wife.
So the Lone Hero And His Dog. And all the AR-15 clones.
See John Wick, Shooter etc. Killing the dog justifies any amount of murderous rampage.
*the Dark Horde includes slightly confused, bespectacled Asian teenagers knocking on your door to ask directions.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
Tomorrow morning I will do just over 1,000 vertical meters on my bike. As you are a lot more serious biker than me, I thought I should mention it.
700 VAM is the level for the keen amateur so your goal time is 1h 18m.
I've done Angliru, Zoncolan and Ventoux (all 1,500m+) and would say Angliru is the worst or best, depending on one's perspective and capacity to endure suffering.
It's two 300m climbs and a 450m one, with some "relaxing" downhills in-between. I'll beat two hours, but I'd be overjoyed if I'm less than 1h50.
42km for me yesterday, with 106 metres of ascent and descent. For some odd reason, it's quite hard to find decent climbs in this area...
Off to row on the Tideway today. Green flag for a change.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
Tomorrow morning I will do just over 1,000 vertical meters on my bike. As you are a lot more serious biker than me, I thought I should mention it.
700 VAM is the level for the keen amateur so your goal time is 1h 18m.
I've done Angliru, Zoncolan and Ventoux (all 1,500m+) and would say Angliru is the worst or best, depending on one's perspective and capacity to endure suffering.
It's two 300m climbs and a 450m one, with some "relaxing" downhills in-between. I'll beat two hours, but I'd be overjoyed if I'm less than 1h50.
42km for me yesterday, with 106 metres of ascent and descent. For some odd reason, it's quite hard to find decent climbs in this area...
It's not so much the kilometers that worry me, so much as the meters.
There are some fearsome hills here, and there's nothing worse than already being knackered when you hit a few hundred meters of 12%.
No enthusiasm for SKS either so yes a turnout similar to 2001 is very likely imo..
Really interesting was 1997 when despite great need for change and enthusiasm for Blair, turnout fell quite sharply from 1992 and it's never been over 70% since.
Actually, in the great scheme of things, that’s quite a worrying thought!
A lot of people have simply given up on voting it seems, particularly the young. Corbyn was the only one to get their juices flowing, albeit at the cost of motivating others to vote against. For many it becomes a lifelong habit.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Stephen Timms, the chair of an influential parliamentary committee, said he was “very troubled” that scores of carers were being forced into financial distress as a result of the government’s mistakes.
He said the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) should be “helping them not harassing them” and added: “It does sound to me as though things are going quite badly wrong at the moment.”
Timms, the chair of the Commons work and pensions committee and the Labour MP for East Ham, told BBC Radio 4’s Money Box programme that the DWP seemed to “completely ignore” the notifications it received when an unpaid carer earned more than the £151-a-week limit.
Instead, he said, the department was allowing people to incur “enormous accidental overpayments”, often over several years. In dozens of cases these bills have totalled more than £20,000.
The Guardian revealed this week that 156,000 unpaid carers are now repaying severe penalties – pushing many into debt or financial distress – for often unwittingly overstepping the small earnings limit while caring for a loved one. Roughly one in five unpaid carers in part-time work breached the earnings limit last year...
These are likely people struggling to cope without such government action. And likely save government huge costs by keeping those they care for out of care homes.
Such incompetence from the DWP, coupled with draconian punishment, is likely to cost the government financially as well as morally.
Dealing with means tested benefits isn't an easy problem, but they're getting this one very wrong.
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
"Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."
I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel
Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights… As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
No enthusiasm for SKS either so yes a turnout similar to 2001 is very likely imo..
Really interesting was 1997 when despite great need for change and enthusiasm for Blair, turnout fell quite sharply from 1992 and it's never been over 70% since.
Actually, in the great scheme of things, that’s quite a worrying thought!
A lot of people have simply given up on voting it seems, particularly the young. Corbyn was the only one to get their juices flowing, albeit at the cost of motivating others to vote against. For many it becomes a lifelong habit.
The reality is that voting is an irrational thing to do from an individual point of view. If there's even a tiny amount of inconvenience involved then it will outweigh the tiny chance that your vote makes a difference to the outcome. Voting only makes sense as an expression of your civic duty and a sense of taking part in something beautiful and precious, a free people choosing who rules them. This to my mind is why the voter ID rules are so pernicious, as they create an additional barrier for precisely the kind of people who already vote in fewer numbers and thus make it harder for them to experience and acquire the magical irrational mindset that underpins democracy and a free society.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Thirty years ago it was pretty good. They used to do a fantastic crab salad if you weren't in the mood for pizza - which also was much better than it usually is now.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Gets the hate for SKS pretty well. Guardianistas look down on it for not being authentic, those with working class chips on their shoulders think it's putting on airs and graces.
And no, I've never had a memorably good meal at one. But I've also never had a memorably bad one.
Stephen Timms, the chair of an influential parliamentary committee, said he was “very troubled” that scores of carers were being forced into financial distress as a result of the government’s mistakes.
He said the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) should be “helping them not harassing them” and added: “It does sound to me as though things are going quite badly wrong at the moment.”
Timms, the chair of the Commons work and pensions committee and the Labour MP for East Ham, told BBC Radio 4’s Money Box programme that the DWP seemed to “completely ignore” the notifications it received when an unpaid carer earned more than the £151-a-week limit.
Instead, he said, the department was allowing people to incur “enormous accidental overpayments”, often over several years. In dozens of cases these bills have totalled more than £20,000.
The Guardian revealed this week that 156,000 unpaid carers are now repaying severe penalties – pushing many into debt or financial distress – for often unwittingly overstepping the small earnings limit while caring for a loved one. Roughly one in five unpaid carers in part-time work breached the earnings limit last year...
These are likely people struggling to cope without such government action. And likely save government huge costs by keeping those they care for out of care homes.
Such incompetence from the DWP, coupled with draconian punishment, is likely to cost the government financially as well as morally.
Dealing with means tested benefits isn't an easy problem, but they're getting this one very wrong.
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
I can't decide if this is performance art or a genuine mental health crisis.
Tomorrow morning I will do just over 1,000 vertical meters on my bike. As you are a lot more serious biker than me, I thought I should mention it.
700 VAM is the level for the keen amateur so your goal time is 1h 18m.
I've done Angliru, Zoncolan and Ventoux (all 1,500m+) and would say Angliru is the worst or best, depending on one's perspective and capacity to endure suffering.
It's two 300m climbs and a 450m one, with some "relaxing" downhills in-between. I'll beat two hours, but I'd be overjoyed if I'm less than 1h50.
42km for me yesterday, with 106 metres of ascent and descent. For some odd reason, it's quite hard to find decent climbs in this area...
It's not so much the kilometers that worry me, so much as the meters.
There are some fearsome hills here, and there's nothing worse than already being knackered when you hit a few hundred meters of 12%.
Ouch. In terms of elevation, that's slightly more climb than hiking Ben Nevis. In a slightly shorter distance, I think (depending on whether you start in Fort Bill or at the base).
So that ride is like riding up and down Ben Nevis. I've heard of people doing that, but they're nutters.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Jimmy Saville slurs on SKS will be hurled around by right wing press at GE2024/5
SKS has demonstrated zero ability to think on his feet when awkward questions arise on other matters too
I am still comfortable with my NOM betting position despite the current lead of almost 20%
It will be hurled around by astroturf groups online. Loads of ads targeted on facebook from groups called "Parents for Child Safety" and they will be vicious.
If Labour do manage to win it's something they will want to tighten up on.
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Gets the hate for SKS pretty well. Guardianistas look down on it for not being authentic, those with working class chips on their shoulders think it's putting on airs and graces.
And no, I've never had a memorably good meal at one. But I've also never had a memorably bad one.
I like their pizzas. Not the best, but thin crust for me every time. Their Venezia was my favourite.
I have a soft spot for them, as my first date with Mrs Foxy was there, and I have a sentimental streak.
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Gets the hate for SKS pretty well. Guardianistas look down on it for not being authentic, those with working class chips on their shoulders think it's putting on airs and graces.
And no, I've never had a memorably good meal at one. But I've also never had a memorably bad one.
For some reason I am reminded of the time that Gordon Brown tried to go after the head of the armed forces.
By leaking to the press that he was going, a lot, to Aske. A Pizza Express level pizza and pasta place.
This rather failed when it turned out he was entertaining heads of foreign armies there (among other dignatories). Yup, the head of the U.K. armed forces was entertaining the head of the German military with £12 a bottle Pino Grigio.
Poshness means literally zero if it can’t be exercised to effect in the socio-political world
You describe an interesting phenomena that is probably a more useful term than "posh" these days for the reasons you give. But you don't get to redefine the original term. Come up with one of your own. That way you even get to name it
For "posh" as used by individuals of themselves today, I would suggest "SOPT" - Self-Obsessed Pretentious Tw*ts".
Not-quite-getting-there aspirants to Alan Clarke's 'effortless' "international rich" demographic, which now perhaps consists of "moneyed with a family office". That is, people who don't even know what assets they own because there are too many.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Gets the hate for SKS pretty well. Guardianistas look down on it for not being authentic, those with working class chips on their shoulders think it's putting on airs and graces.
And no, I've never had a memorably good meal at one. But I've also never had a memorably bad one.
I like their pizzas. Not the best, but thin crust for me every time. Their Venezia was my favourite.
I have a soft spot for them, as my first date with Mrs Foxy was there, and I have a sentimental streak.
For their time (1960s/70s) they were good - but now almost equally good pizzas are available from the "cooked here" counter in any decent supermarket.
I look down on Guardianistas for not being authentic.
Stephen Timms, the chair of an influential parliamentary committee, said he was “very troubled” that scores of carers were being forced into financial distress as a result of the government’s mistakes.
He said the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) should be “helping them not harassing them” and added: “It does sound to me as though things are going quite badly wrong at the moment.”
Timms, the chair of the Commons work and pensions committee and the Labour MP for East Ham, told BBC Radio 4’s Money Box programme that the DWP seemed to “completely ignore” the notifications it received when an unpaid carer earned more than the £151-a-week limit.
Instead, he said, the department was allowing people to incur “enormous accidental overpayments”, often over several years. In dozens of cases these bills have totalled more than £20,000.
The Guardian revealed this week that 156,000 unpaid carers are now repaying severe penalties – pushing many into debt or financial distress – for often unwittingly overstepping the small earnings limit while caring for a loved one. Roughly one in five unpaid carers in part-time work breached the earnings limit last year...
These are likely people struggling to cope without such government action. And likely save government huge costs by keeping those they care for out of care homes.
Such incompetence from the DWP, coupled with draconian punishment, is likely to cost the government financially as well as morally.
Dealing with means tested benefits isn't an easy problem, but they're getting this one very wrong.
To be honest, in the scheme of things it's such a small payment, compared to the cost of the state having to care for the person, and the fact that the claimant has to be the equivalent of a full time carer (35 hours a week), I'm surprised it has to be means tested.
No enthusiasm for SKS either so yes a turnout similar to 2001 is very likely imo..
Really interesting was 1997 when despite great need for change and enthusiasm for Blair, turnout fell quite sharply from 1992 and it's never been over 70% since.
1992 was a genuine touch and go election where almost every part of the electorate was highly motivated. Labour voters to kick out the Tories and put an end to Thatcherism. Tories to stop the socialist hordes. Swing voters who might not bother if couldn't decide but this time knew they'd be decisive.
Comparatively, in 1997 you had a highly motivated Labour vote, but a totally demoralised and disillusioned Tory one. And little incentive for those who didn't much care either way to make a choice given the result was fairly certain.
You'd say 2024/25 could be similar - with a highly motivated anti-Tory vote and a more depressed Tory one.
I seriously doubt we're looking at 2001 turnout. As the 'lack of enthusiasm' for Starmer is him posting similar personal numbers to Cameron before 2010 and there's a much stronger anger among its opponents towards the government.
You'd rather be Blair, but it's not going to stop those desperate to boot out the government voting apart from the small number of people who want to make a point because they loathe Starmer's Labour for not being Corbyn's - who'll probably still turn out to register a protest vote because they're some of the most politically engaged people in the country. You'd say mid to high 60s again.
2001 really was a nothingy 'who cares' election as everyone knew Blair would be re-elected and the Tories didn't have much to say. 2024 isn't like that, whatever one thinks of Starmer.
I don't think poshness is changing. Of course, social kudos is always changing - girls want to be instafamous now, they don't all dream of being Lady Diana Spencer. However, I think poshness is at it ever was. And indeed, the young lady at the centre of swirling rumours concerning the Wales's marriage, has nothing going for her that Kate doesn't (I think she's less good looking), except that she is firmly of the horsey upper class. The comfort zone of posh is posh.
No, I’m sorry, that’s wrong
Poshness means literally zero if it can’t be exercised to effect in the socio-political world
Class still matters of course (esp in the UK) - but once you’ve learned to speak RP and learned how to use a knife and say scone (like “gone”) and how to do all the other tiny things that bespeak social elevation then it fades away entirely these days. And, btw, it takes about 12 weeks to learn the social codes of English poshness if you really insist on doing it
Beyond that, what does it mean? Nothing. If someone met me and said in the second sentence “by the way I’m the 13th Duke of Lancashire” I’d think 1. That’s mildly interesting and 2. This person is a fucking twat
So how does he announce that he is socially and - more importantly - where does this alleged superiority get him with me? Nowhere. It is positively counter productive for the personal reasons I’ve delineated (I’ve done more than him and been more places than him and earned more from my own brain than him, for sure)
What, then, is his poshness? How does it matter?
To me it doesn’t. To my daughters maybe yes a tiny bit (for marriage) but they’d be far better off marrying a Silicon Valley tech bro and they’d also be more engaged by that
There! I have my gazette article
POSHNESS IS OVER
Thanks (also I do really believe this)
Is that not just a sign of the world in which there are far, far more rich Americans than there are rich, posh English? The newly rich from many countries may try to emulated 'posh', but Americans are far more brash with their wealth.
But for Brits, in practice there are still a significant number of well paid areas where the upper echelons are for the posh.
The solution of course is to ignore those areas and make money somewhere they don't care about 'poshness'. The posh will become increasingly diminished even within the UK.
Poshness is just short hand for “someone who is broadly accepted to be in the top echelon of society”.
Every society is different - in the US it is money or philanthropy. I would argue that Lilly, Pritzker or Phipps families are far “posher” than Musk. But you’ve probably never heard of them…
In the UK it is lineage. The Beckhams are admired for what they have achieved as individuals. But no one has that much positive to say about the kids.
But it’s bollocks. Who can personally call Vlad Putin and expect an immediate reply? It’s not the 19th earl of Shropshire is it? Nor is it the Pritzkers
Its Musk
Outside major major political leaders he has greater actual power and higher social standing than any of them. And by a vast distance
The Habsburgs USED to have that. Now it is merely a quaint surname and a knowledge to leave the last waistcoat button, unbuttoned
Getting through to world leaders is about power, or maybe influence, not poshness.
We need a new word then
Because if poshness bestows little to zero social benefit on its owners then what is it? Maybe it becomes mere etiquette, and about as important. Not nothing, but not much either
It has social benefit. It’s the entry to a world where people are relaxed in each other’s company, never worry about money and have nothing to prove.
That’s not power, or fame, access, or wealth. It’s “an England at ease with itself”
Who gives a fuck about miserable old England
You are denying it because you don’t understand it. You feel excluded and insecure about it. You envy and fear it. It’s an ineffable sense of being. It’s like obscenity: you can’t define it but you know when you see it.
Yep. Not sure I've ever seen a worse take on Poshness than Leon's last night.
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
"England, Wales and Scotland all now in favour of Irish unification, research shows The 2023 State of the Union survey examines attitudes towards constitutional issues in the UK"
"There are different reasons in different parts of the UK explaining the views taken about Northern Ireland leaving the Union. In England, it’s probably more the ‘bugger off’ variety. In Scotland, it’s probably, ‘Go and live your best life’."
At the 2019 GE 2019 were 47,074,800 voters registered. In December 2023 - 46,560,452 - Half a million voters gone.
I would guess a good chunk of those would be the reduction of students not having a double registration because of Covid and studying from home. We had 2 years of that so there will have been several hundred thousand affected. The starting of that process again will still not have reached a full cohort.
The Campaign Against Antisemitism's [*] pro-Israeli "we should be able to walk where we want" march today in London, which would have opposed the pro-Palestinian march which is expected to draw hundreds of thousands of opponents of genocide, has been cancelled. Organisers say the police couldn't guarantee their safety.
But there will be another pro-Israeli march today, organised by Enough is Enough.
*The CAA is the organisation from which the chief executive Gideon Falter walked out into the middle of a pro-Palestinian march to the aims of which he is strongly opposed - a march in which many Jews were participating - and then said he thought he was being discriminated against for being Jewish.
"Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."
I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel
Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights… As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.
This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
I think 2001 levels or worse are possible. The Tories should take comfort in that, it may mean they are running 4 years ahead in recovery terms vs 1997.
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Just topped up on my Jan 25 election bet (now at 20s on bf).
I don't believe he will call it on Monday and every week gives a chance to eg stop the boats, launch a plane towards Rwanda, shake hands with HMK at the Birthday Parade, etc.
No enthusiasm for SKS either so yes a turnout similar to 2001 is very likely imo..
Really interesting was 1997 when despite great need for change and enthusiasm for Blair, turnout fell quite sharply from 1992 and it's never been over 70% since.
1992 was a genuine touch and go election where almost every part of the electorate was highly motivated. Labour voters to kick out the Tories and put an end to Thatcherism. Tories to stop the socialist hordes. Swing voters who might not bother if couldn't decide but this time knew they'd be decisive.
Comparatively, in 1997 you had a highly motivated Labour vote, but a totally demoralised and disillusioned Tory one. And little incentive for those who didn't much care either way to make a choice given the result was fairly certain.
You'd say 2024/25 could be similar - with a highly motivated anti-Tory vote and a more depressed Tory one.
I seriously doubt we're looking at 2001 turnout. As the 'lack of enthusiasm' for Starmer is him posting similar personal numbers to Cameron before 2010 and there's a much stronger anger among its opponents towards the government.
You'd rather be Blair, but it's not going to stop those desperate to boot out the government voting apart from the small number of people who want to make a point because they loathe Starmer's Labour for not being Corbyn's - who'll probably still turn out to register a protest vote because they're some of the most politically engaged people in the country. You'd say mid to high 60s again.
2001 really was a nothingy 'who cares' election as everyone knew Blair would be re-elected and the Tories didn't have much to say. 2024 isn't like that, whatever one thinks of Starmer.
I'd rather not have a Blair.
One plus of Starmer is that I don't think his self-image will go to his head.
I'd hope for a Government that is not seen to do much in the immediate term for image reasons, but builds a broad base of approximately-right effective reform over a decade.
"England, Wales and Scotland all now in favour of Irish unification, research shows The 2023 State of the Union survey examines attitudes towards constitutional issues in the UK"
"There are different reasons in different parts of the UK explaining the views taken about Northern Ireland leaving the Union. In England, it’s probably more the ‘bugger off’ variety. In Scotland, it’s probably, ‘Go and live your best life’."
Lol.
I'm relaxed about the idea, though sometimes it's a bit strange when quite casual people simplify the issue to one of common sense that islands should be unified, when there's lots of islands that are not proposed to be (or would like not to be as in Britain itself).
Finally and more importantly, if Starmer were a restaurant, what restaurant would he be?
“Pizza Express – bit boring, middle of the road, totally vanilla, inoffensive. You know it’s not going to be really awful”; “Wagamama because it’s trying to rebrand”; “Burger King or McDonald’s because everyone can afford to eat there. Labour’s a bit more budget;” “Pizza Hut. Old school, cheap and cheerful. Well, I don’t think Labour are cheerful. But it’s always been there in the background and people don’t really use it that much”; “Wetherspoons. Youngsters and working-class people. But they don’t really advertise do they? People just have an assumption that they might do this or that.”
And the Tory restaurant?
“A pretentious place that has a tasting menu with foams. All front but no action”; “Nando’s. Quick turnaround, you’re in and out of the door. And spicy – they try and dress it up but at the end of the day it’s just chicken”; “Jamie’s Italian. The empire crumbled – that’s how it’s looking isn’t it? They failed because they tried to run it by image, but the actual food was awful”; “The kitchen at Fawlty Towers. The menu is duck à l’orange and meanwhile in the back room all hell’s breaking loose and the chef is drunk”; and:
Gets the hate for SKS pretty well. Guardianistas look down on it for not being authentic, those with working class chips on their shoulders think it's putting on airs and graces.
And no, I've never had a memorably good meal at one. But I've also never had a memorably bad one.
And I think Jamie’s is good too.
Trying to appeal to the ordinary bloke the the street but too expensive for them, while not delivering on the quality that would justify the cost. Basically doesn’t really define its target market appropriately and therefore appeals to no one
As for pizzas the crust has to be thin but not too thin. I like Pizza Express but a lot of the supermarket pizzas are good also. The key is to elevate them on a rack so they are not cooking directly on their base, and to drizzle generously with olive oil.
Incidentally I don't sense the feeling of hate towards Starmer, apart from the Corbynite left.
Just a very palpable lack of enthusiasm.
Varies with the area, I suspect. Talking to collesgues in other CLPs, there's a LOT of enthusiasm in places like mine (Didcot and Wantage) where Labour has never won and has a decent chance this time - merely having street stands and canvass teams is seen as exciting and passers-by really want to engage, while in Tower Hamlets it would, I suspect, be seen with a weary shrug. Even on the left (including me) there's a level of gratitude to Starmer for getting us to this point.
Stardust and the lack of it is still an issue - we had one former-Tory-now-dunno yesterday who said he'd vote for Tont Blair but he doubted he'd bother for Starmer. But in general I think people are wary of stardust in the post-Boris era.
"England, Wales and Scotland all now in favour of Irish unification, research shows The 2023 State of the Union survey examines attitudes towards constitutional issues in the UK"
"There are different reasons in different parts of the UK explaining the views taken about Northern Ireland leaving the Union. In England, it’s probably more the ‘bugger off’ variety. In Scotland, it’s probably, ‘Go and live your best life’."
Lol.
Extremely misleading headline from the Irish Times. It was not even a straight poll but sliding scale where English voters put themselves at just +0.9 out of 10 on accepting Irish unity.
In any case it is up to Northern Irish voters ultimately and most polls show they still want to stay in the UK
"Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."
I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel
Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights… As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.
This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
How are these confused? It could be terrible for those people who are sent *and* ineffective in deterring boat crossings.
Has this been discussed? Potential Trump VP pick Kristi Noem gunned down her dog as it wasn't behaving properly and then decided to kill the family goat at the same time, for being too smelly.
"Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."
I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel
Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights… As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.
This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
How are these confused? It could be terrible for those people who are sent *and* ineffective in deterring boat crossings.
If you're using terror to describe the prospect of a handful of people (if it all) being sent to Rwanda for their claims to be processed, whilst meanwhile millions are genuinely terrorised by awful regimes in hellholes around the world, then you're just posturing.
And very interestingly not a single word on the BBC news app about the post office enquiry. The story appears nowhere.
Perhaps these quasi-government run institutions realise that they are all rotten to the core and don't want to be poked.
FFS, there’s no need for more nonsense conspiracy theories. The BBC has reported on the PO inquiry regularly. On the website now, there’s this story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c88z431n2v5o
The lack of awareness by some politicians is jaw dropping . So the dog and goat killer from South Dakota thought it would show how strong she was . Instead it shows levels of cruelty that might be too much even for Trump to pick her as his VP nominee .
Comments
The 2023 State of the Union survey examines attitudes towards constitutional issues in the UK"
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/03/21/england-wales-and-scotland-all-now-in-favour-of-irish-unification-research-shows/
Rishi Sunak is announcing the General Election date 1037hrs 13th May.The 2024 General Election is being held on 4th July. Parliament will end on 23rd May.
There is only one political party who can be seen to lose this election from here, so it will be a very difficult campaign for Labour, obvious jitters with polls tightening once election called. 9th May BOE interest rate cut announced, 10th May UK comes out of recession with good first quarter growth, 22nd May Inflation will fall below 2% - no arguing or doubt about this because its based on energy prices. Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. The sunny economic news will contrast with the depth of credit crisis in voters minds and credit given to Rishi and Hunt for the financial turnaround pulls rug from under Labours best argument for voters to switch to them. The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening.
Also as background narrative to the campaign, the last week of June and into July will be near record breaking heatwave in UK, throwing attention to how major parties have backed away from climate commitments ahead of this election. Escalating events in the Gaza War will return to the conflict to greater attention than it is currently getting, and make UKs political leaders look impotent and without influence at the worst possible moment for them.
I can give you the July election result right now, in shares and seats.
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN4 SNP2
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 (Bristols not Brightons) SNP21 PLD4
Consider this my entry in the inevitable PB competition when it comes.
What a tit.
His Oxford-educated father was short-listed for the Booker Prize FFS.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/entertainment/tv/itv-news-presenter-rageh-omaar-receiving-medical-care-after-being-unwell-live-on-air/ar-AA1nKcuy
Bookmakers go 6/1 against July but also 6/1 (13/2 in a place) July to September. This shows how little attention bookmakers generally pay to politics markets, which is why there is occasionally good value, albeit to limited stakes.
Surely it has to be Le Gavroche.
Inexplicably popular for 40 years, but tired and played out a long time ago. Finally went out of business as the result of the overpriced property market, the cost of living crisis and the loss of the patronage of Crispin Odey...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-68760746
Top notch spoof, unless you are actually being serious. The Conservatives will not be trusted to run the economy again for a very long time.
John Major polled 30.7% in 1997 and there is no way this time they are going to get that high. Sub 30 looks odds on, evidenced by the ongoing slump in their opinion poll ratings. They are currently polling 6-9% below the 1997 figures for the commensurate period. That’s the maths of it.
The only part of your post which has possibility of traction is the July election. An intriguing idea. Unlikely, but not impossible.
"When the public have decided a government is doomed, it can do little to shift its fate. Just ask John Major or Gordon Brown. We’re at the end of an age. It may be unappetising, but the voters are ready for Labour. The longer Sunak is seen to delay Starmer’s arrival out of a mixture of timidity and vanity, the angrier the voters will become at his squatting. Things can always get worse."
https://conservativehome.com/2024/04/26/a-summer-election-may-be-sunaks-only-hope-of-avoiding-a-wipeout/
David Davis has become a reverse bellwether. Whatever he says, you can know the opposite is the truth.
The longer this drags on now, the worse the Conservatives will perform. Especially if they take it into late autumn. November and January are the most miserable months of the year and it will be an even bigger electoral disaster if Sunak procrastinates until then.
RwandaLAX ahead, they relax.On the other hand he is never knowingly decisive.
Best for the country? No, Tories genuinely believe they are better than Labour for Britain.
Best for Rishi? No, because his career in top-level politics will end.
Best for backbenchers? No for most because they will stop being paid. Yes for others if they have a better chance of reelection.
Best for the Conservative Party? Possibly but that is CCHQ's problem (and maybe ConHome's).
So of those groups, who controls or even influences the election date?
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1783991738807247047
https://twitter.com/RealJakeBroe/status/1783973226689011730
(BTW, "I feel maybe it’s wrong that we aren’t talking enough about the goat" would make the great first line of a book.")
Didn't know it had shut.
Turnout
1997 71.4%
2001 59.4%
2005 61.4%
2010 65.1%
2015 66.2%
2017 68.8%
2019 67.3%
F1: Hulkenberg going to Sauber/Audi.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/analysis-why-the-audi-factor-was-too-tempting-for-hulkenberg-to-turn-down-as.CqmjYnSMbJfKNMJ0e7b2p
"Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."
I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel
I've done Angliru, Zoncolan and Ventoux (all 1,500m+) and would say Angliru is the worst or best, depending on one's perspective and capacity to endure suffering.
"in an effort to show she's capable of dealing with anything that's 'difficult, messy and ugly."
Jimmy Saville slurs on SKS will be hurled around by right wing press at GE2024/5
SKS has demonstrated zero ability to think on his feet when awkward questions arise on other matters too
I am still comfortable with my NOM betting position despite the current lead of almost 20%
I've refrained from either shooting or clubbing them with a baseball bat.
I’d say good morning everybody, but it appears to have been raining all night! And it’s still drizzling here.
“Oh to be in England and now that April is here!”
Mind, it was quite good yesterday!
As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
"Just say where you want to go, and Tesla FSD 12.3.5 will take you there"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Lrrhn0CMk
The "kick them out" motivation was there in 1997 and 2010, and will be there again this time too. I reckon a turnout something around 65%, but dropping sharply for 2028/9 GE.
The deciding factor may well be which demographics turn out. I expect a lack of enthusiasm from Tory CDE voters and the young.
The armaments are there (for MAGA grade righties) to Defend Your Family Against The Dark Horde*.
Part of this cult is the dog that, ideally, is part wolf. Will kill all strangers. Especially Dark Horde Strangers. Mans Best Friend - more than the wife.
So the Lone Hero And His Dog. And all the AR-15 clones.
See John Wick, Shooter etc. Killing the dog justifies any amount of murderous rampage.
*the Dark Horde includes slightly confused, bespectacled Asian teenagers knocking on your door to ask directions.
There are some fearsome hills here, and there's nothing worse than already being knackered when you hit a few hundred meters of 12%.
Work and pensions committee chair tells ministers to fix carer’s allowance issues
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/27/work-and-pensions-committee-chair-tells-ministers-to-fix-carers-allowance-issues
Ministers have been told to “immediately” fix the issues causing tens of thousands of unpaid carers to incur “enormous accidental overpayments” amid growing anger over the carer’s allowance scandal.
Stephen Timms, the chair of an influential parliamentary committee, said he was “very troubled” that scores of carers were being forced into financial distress as a result of the government’s mistakes.
He said the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) should be “helping them not harassing them” and added: “It does sound to me as though things are going quite badly wrong at the moment.”
Timms, the chair of the Commons work and pensions committee and the Labour MP for East Ham, told BBC Radio 4’s Money Box programme that the DWP seemed to “completely ignore” the notifications it received when an unpaid carer earned more than the £151-a-week limit.
Instead, he said, the department was allowing people to incur “enormous accidental overpayments”, often over several years. In dozens of cases these bills have totalled more than £20,000.
The Guardian revealed this week that 156,000 unpaid carers are now repaying severe penalties – pushing many into debt or financial distress – for often unwittingly overstepping the small earnings limit while caring for a loved one. Roughly one in five unpaid carers in part-time work breached the earnings limit last year...
These are likely people struggling to cope without such government action. And likely save government huge costs by keeping those they care for out of care homes.
Such incompetence from the DWP, coupled with draconian punishment, is likely to cost the government financially as well as morally.
Dealing with means tested benefits isn't an easy problem, but they're getting this one very wrong.
That captures the nihilism of MAGA quite well.
They used to do a fantastic crab salad if you weren't in the mood for pizza - which also was much better than it usually is now.
I am not a fan of Pizza Express, their bases are so thin.
And no, I've never had a memorably good meal at one. But I've also never had a memorably bad one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_childcare_benefits_scandal
Morons with read only minds found a process. And clung to it like a drowning man.
So that ride is like riding up and down Ben Nevis. I've heard of people doing that, but they're nutters.
They just don't cook them as well as they used to.
If Labour do manage to win it's something they will want to tighten up on.
I have a soft spot for them, as my first date with Mrs Foxy was there, and I have a sentimental streak.
By leaking to the press that he was going, a lot, to Aske. A Pizza Express level pizza and pasta place.
This rather failed when it turned out he was entertaining heads of foreign armies there (among other dignatories). Yup, the head of the U.K. armed forces was entertaining the head of the German military with £12 a bottle Pino Grigio.
Not-quite-getting-there aspirants to Alan Clarke's 'effortless' "international rich" demographic, which now perhaps consists of "moneyed with a family office". That is, people who don't even know what assets they own because there are too many.
I look down on Guardianistas for not being authentic.
Just a very palpable lack of enthusiasm.
Comparatively, in 1997 you had a highly motivated Labour vote, but a totally demoralised and disillusioned Tory one. And little incentive for those who didn't much care either way to make a choice given the result was fairly certain.
You'd say 2024/25 could be similar - with a highly motivated anti-Tory vote and a more depressed Tory one.
I seriously doubt we're looking at 2001 turnout. As the 'lack of enthusiasm' for Starmer is him posting similar personal numbers to Cameron before 2010 and there's a much stronger anger among its opponents towards the government.
You'd rather be Blair, but it's not going to stop those desperate to boot out the government voting apart from the small number of people who want to make a point because they loathe Starmer's Labour for not being Corbyn's - who'll probably still turn out to register a protest vote because they're some of the most politically engaged people in the country. You'd say mid to high 60s again.
2001 really was a nothingy 'who cares' election as everyone knew Blair would be re-elected and the Tories didn't have much to say. 2024 isn't like that, whatever one thinks of Starmer.
So, how is she getting on with governing South Dakota?
Lol.
But there will be another pro-Israeli march today, organised by Enough is Enough.
*The CAA is the organisation from which the chief executive Gideon Falter walked out into the middle of a pro-Palestinian march to the aims of which he is strongly opposed - a march in which many Jews were participating - and then said he thought he was being discriminated against for being Jewish.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/apr/26/campaign-against-antisemitism-cancels-counter-protest-london-pro-palestinian-march
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc
There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.
This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
I don't believe he will call it on Monday and every week gives a chance to eg stop the boats, launch a plane towards Rwanda, shake hands with HMK at the Birthday Parade, etc.
I just can't see him going early. Never could.
One plus of Starmer is that I don't think his self-image will go to his head.
I'd hope for a Government that is not seen to do much in the immediate term for image reasons, but builds a broad base of approximately-right effective reform over a decade.
I find the way he has turned the tables on them and left them completely powerless and isolated truly admirable.
Trying to appeal to the ordinary bloke the the street but too expensive for them, while not delivering on the quality that would justify the cost. Basically doesn’t really define its target market appropriately and therefore appeals to no one
It's a bit like being genuinely Cornish, in that sense.
Perhaps these quasi-government run institutions realise that they are all rotten to the core and don't want to be poked.
Stardust and the lack of it is still an issue - we had one former-Tory-now-dunno yesterday who said he'd vote for Tont Blair but he doubted he'd bother for Starmer. But in general I think people are wary of stardust in the post-Boris era.
When people accuse me of being a toff/posh I argue that I am the grandson of immigrants, how an earth can I be a toff/posh?
In any case it is up to Northern Irish voters ultimately and most polls show they still want to stay in the UK
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/2018#total-number-of-uk-parliamentary-electors-decreases
So it increased 1.3m in a year then by the 2019 GE.
So I wouldn't be massively concerned, it may already be back above the 2019 level since the 2023 figures as far as we know.