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A new Street victory? – politicalbetting.com
A new Street victory? – politicalbetting.com
Richard Parker leads Andy Street by 14%.West Midlands Mayoral Election VI (10-14 April):Richard Parker (Lab) 42%Andy Street (Cons) 28%Elaine Williams (Ref) 13%Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 7%Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 7%Other 2%https://t.co/BmEcOjM5q4 pic.twitter.com/oluoaQ5xdl
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Berlin launches global call to help protect cities, troops and infrastructure from Russia’s ‘murderous onslaught’
https://www.ft.com/content/6db9f905-2dc3-41fd-b57a-1d062a62cc69
Probably too late in the day to do so and there's no casus belli: his moment would have been when HS2 got screwed around with.
https://edoc.unibas.ch/56152/1/20170920162155_59c2798357d20.pdf
He deserves to lose.
There are 2 further by-elections tomorrow - a Lib Dem defence in East Cambridgeshire and a Residents defence in Waverley.
One would need to establish whether such adverse reactions are due to taking the equivalent of a couple of bottles of whisky (or a methanol-based drink) of MDMA or whether it's possible from taking the equivalent of a clean pint of session IPA.
The problem with making it legal (or one of the problems) is the deaths from taking MDMA. It doesn't matter that they were almost certainly mostly due to contamenents, You can imagine the campaigns from mothers of deceased kids all over BBC breakfast...
The main benefit afaics is that they create longer time horizons for local / regional policies and settlements.
Street has created an authority doing things in transport with capability to deliver active travel schemes (one of only 5 places outside London assessed as Level 3), which is significant.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12090/a-new-street-victory-politicalbetting-com#latest
The biggest mess that has come out of the devolution movement is that we now have so many different systems at play, nobody has a clue who does what or where the power lies. Which has, I will add, allowed many devolved governments to get away with blaming everyone else but themselves.
So not a complete loss. It's probably unfair to contrast with London since Street is in the ruling party and has more leverage, but I can't think of much if anything that Sadiq has managed successfully to lobby for on behalf of London.
I wouldn't bet on it, but it's plausible that in 20-30 years a Tory leader who's emerged from what you might call the 'techbro' right, puts it in a manifesto in a bid to convince voters his or her party has changed and is modern.
I am pretty confident of a Labour majority. The gap seems too far and the Tories have been in too long, and are associated with the bad things that have happened (rightly or wrongly) since 2016. (Brexit was their fault, Covid and Ukraine not). But election campaigns sometimes do move the dial. Who saw May calling the 2017 election and imagined her crawly off with a stuffed bag of notes to the DUP six weeks later?
Sadly his prognosis for the Lib Dems' seat count is both downbeat and worryingly credible.
I don't think governments handle drug law at all well. The safety or not rarely matches the legal status.
And horse riding.
CON: 25% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)
RFM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @savanta_UK, 12-14 Apr.
Changes w/ 5-7 Apr."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/drug-safety-testing-centres-recreational-ecstasy-the-loop-georgia-jones-daniel-spargo-mabbs-a8649101.html
1. Risk of harm to user
2. Risk of harm to others
3. Non-health costs of making / remaining illegal
4. Non-health benefits of making / remaining legal
Actually I probably wouldn't because it would have alcohol high up on 1 and extremely high up on 2.
Dead
Fast forward to 2024 and a winning Farnham Resident found she was too busy and abruptly resigned her seat. That should have created an opportunity for Labour ("the Resident evidently couldn't be bothered, why not try us"), but the LibDems decided the pact was over and are contesting the seat too. So you're now seeing Labour bar charts showing LibDems on zero ("didn't even stand last time"). Meanwhile we are all still in amicable coalition (though I've stepped down from the Exec and am phasing out my involvement).
I did a couple of hours' phone canvassing there, but am little the wiser. Could be Farnham Res, LDs, Lab or even Tories, though the last is IMO unlikely.
LLG 57%, RefCon 34%.
Something looks odd in the maths though. 43+25+10+9+4+3=94%. Are "other - misc" really on 6%, or even 5% assuming rounding's part of the issue? 1% for Plaid, maybe 1-2% for UKIP at a push.
(Hope it wasn't upthread)
A feasible path to him staying as Tory leader is what, exactly? The party will only win the election without him. With him, it would get walloped. Either way, he goes.
*And yes, I know that almost all, if not all, will have been down to impure, illegal MDMA.
It's a miracle that anyone wants to run local/metro government.
"#1 Best Seller in Philosopher Biographies"
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ten-Years-Save-West-conservative/dp/178590857X
Man + conker = death
How do you even negotiate that, philosophically? I just hope he wasn’t saying “obbly obbly onker, my first conker” the moment it happened. Because it might have been true. But his first conker was also his last
😶
Might also be that stone of the other others are people who would say Reform if they were prompted for - would have to check how they ask the questions. May indicate that a lot of the Reform voted picked up by other pollsters is a pure NOTA. If that vote is going to Reform, rather than Lib Dems, will help to explain why the LDM polling is still stuck at a relatively low level.
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/moving-the-needle-what-kind-of-swing-to-expect-at-the-next-election-d1f164f0ab35
C 26% -
L 43% -
LD 10% -
R 11% (-1)
G 6% (+1)
SNP 3% -
On their website https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/voting-intention/
they have an interactive graphic which looks at voting percentage for each of their seven segments as well as their top issues.
Conservatives are still ahead of Labour in Backbone Conservatives (44-30) and Disengaged Traditionalists (35-34) segments.
He's not the only one who is similarly confused but he's particularly unaware I would say.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Semi Bird pleaded guilty in 1993 to a misdemeanor count of bank larceny for lying on a credit application by using the name and Social Security number of his father, records show.
According to the previously unreported federal conviction, Bird, then 30 and living in Sunnyside, Yakima County, falsified a 1991 credit application “with intent to steal and purloin” funds from U.S. Bank.
Under the plea agreement, signed May 11, 1993, Bird, whose full name is Misipati Semi Bird, was sentenced to two years of probation and agreed to pay restitution of $1,963 and a fine of $500.
n an interview Tuesday, Bird, now 63, said he makes no excuses for the mistake decades ago.
“Guilty as charged — 100%,” he said. “It was wrong . . . . “there was no excuse.”
SSI - Timing of this revelation is quite interesting, coming on eve of this week's WA State Republican Convention. Which will endorse candidates for Governor and other state & federal offices on August primary ballot.
Top Republican candidate for Gov - and sole credible hope for the general election - is former WA congressman and King Co sheriff Dave Reichert. My guess is this story MAY (emphasis on conditional) help him at a convention sure to be dominated by wingnuts.
But maybe not.
BTW, Reichert tried to help himself on that front, by stating before a GOPer audience that, “No. 1, my wife is a woman and I’m a man . . . There’s only man and woman. I was raised as a Christian. And marriage is between a man and a woman.”
This was an ad hoc response, to questions about his position of transgender issues. Will NOT hurt him with GOP convention delegates & politicos. BUT likely will NOT help him in the general election PROVIDED he makes it through the "Top Two" primary. Which is a VERY good bet IMHO.
Q> Would they do better at impending general election IF they defenestrated Ed Davey? Or worse? Or no difference?
I wonder why the Tories are struggling in the polls at the moment?
Daisy Cooper looks like catnip for older Waitrose types.
Doubly so when set aside grey Keir and shite Sunak.
Rishi is also ideologically opposed to public infrastructure, with the possible exception of chess boards.
- On purely leadership terms, no difference
- As a result of the actual defenestration process and the message that sends, probably worse
There are OK candidates waiting in the wings for next time but no obvious king/queen across the water. The personality of the local PPC will matter more than the leader I think, come the election. After all the LDs are unlikely to provide the next prime minister, or indeed be in coalition.
As part of an assessment, where I work, we looked into the programming capability of various "AI" including the latest from OpenAI.
The overall conclusion was that while they make interesting code completion tools (write a short, specific piece of code for a simple task), when task went beyond fragments, the results were unusable. And took more time to correct than coding from scratch.
New blog post on the search for MH370 by Richard Godfrey, who had a "Eureka moment" about 3 years ago that WSPR radio signals could be used to detect where the plane crashed.
https://www.mh370search.com/2024/04/17/was-the-original-target-mh370-or-mh150/