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A plea to the bookies – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    That thread is well worth a read.

    Ever wonder why our councils are skint...

    Not tackling the children's mental health crisis further upstream proves to be very expensive indeed.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    darkage said:

    So, it transpires that the Australian 'terrorist' was an all-Australian surfer boy with mental health issues, which must come as a shock to those who assumed (hoped?) that it was an Islamic terrorist. The normal suspects seem not to be following the story any more.

    It's high time that Australia clamped down on the influx of deranged surfers. Maybe extradite them to Rwanda?

    The one thing about this story is how the police officer who shot the guy involved has been recognised as a hero. Common sense. I wonder though if that would happen in the UK?
    John Smeaton says hi, ya bawbag.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128

    MattW said:

    nico679 said:

    In other news the Tories will cut cold weather payments to disabled people if they win the election .

    #ToryScum

    Do we have a cite for that?

    I would not be surprised btw,

    It would be just like Sunak's measure to get more disabled people off benefit by making the Work Capability Assessment even more abusive than it is already - ask some disabled friends if you doubt that - whilst simultaneously trying to close all the ticket offices so disabled people find it more difficult to *get* to work.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/14/leak-reveals-tory-plan-to-cut-cold-weather-cash-for-disabled-people
    That's a very good piece.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    Isn’t the allegation that the address on her signed nomination papers for the election, was that of the house she’d sold some months previously?

    Personally can’t see it coming to anything, as there’s a statute of limitations on most electoral offences.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Meanwhile, missiles and drones shot by Iran at Israel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68810053

    And the Heil leads on Angela Rayner!!

    Good morning everyone!
    The Mail must think they have a chance of getting Rayner's scalp. Not sure what that would do other than feed into a low-vote "They're all as bad as each other" meme.

    Sunday Times also has a front page piece "BBC pulled Rayner clip after Labour complaint". Some nervousness in Labour circles?
    Gets worse for Rayner.

    Angela Rayner’s former aide contradicts her claim in tax row

    Matt Finnegan, who wrote a novel about a smart, northerner ‘diva’ MP, has made a statement to police


    A few weeks before Angela Rayner was elected Labour’s deputy leader in 2020, her former adviser published a thriller about an ambitious trade union official turned MP known to her staff as “the Diva”.

    Its author, Matt Finnegan, had recently left Rayner’s employment with a £20,000 payout and non-disclosure agreement after accusing her of disability discrimination and unfair dismissal. He insisted the novel Betrayal was “complete fiction”, meaning lurid claims about the private life of its protagonist — a smart and combative northerner with a penchant for shoes who had other striking similarities to his former boss — were ignored.

    Yet it is his allegations of fact that will trouble Rayner after he gave a statement to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) saying he visited her at a property in Lowndes Lane, Stockport, in the summer of 2014, around the time she became a parliamentary candidate.

    It contradicts her claim to have lived elsewhere. “There was no doubt in my mind that this was Ms Rayner’s family home, where she lived with her then husband, Mark,” his letter states.

    “I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayners-former-aide-contradicts-her-claim-in-tax-row-zm2xgpq2k
    "Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car" is certainly conducive to more than one interpretation. As is "around the time she became a parliamentary candidate", given that the house sale was years before.

    I've worked with people for decades and have no idea of their arrangements ...
    "The first and only time I visited" isn't much in the way of evidence.
    the barrel is being well and truly scraped
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Sandpit said:

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    Isn’t the allegation that the address on her signed nomination papers for the election, was that of the house she’d sold some months previously?

    Personally can’t see it coming to anything, as there’s a statute of limitations on most electoral offences.
    I thought it was for her personal vote on the voters' register. On reflection, that is so last week.

    They keep changing the supposed crime almost weekly. Next it'll be pulling up a daffodil in the public park when she was 4.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    darkage said:

    So, it transpires that the Australian 'terrorist' was an all-Australian surfer boy with mental health issues, which must come as a shock to those who assumed (hoped?) that it was an Islamic terrorist. The normal suspects seem not to be following the story any more.

    It's high time that Australia clamped down on the influx of deranged surfers. Maybe extradite them to Rwanda?

    The one thing about this story is how the police officer who shot the guy involved has been recognised as a hero. Common sense. I wonder though if that would happen in the UK?
    Good morning

    Australian police are armed unlike ours and the officer involved yesterday ran to the attacker in the mall, she was on her own, and in challenging him he turned round threatening her and she shot him dead

    As I said yesterday she is a heroine but I doubt she expected to shoot dead someone when she went on duty, and she should be given as much support as possible if she suffers mental health issues later

    It would have required an armed police response here in the UK
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620

    Oh dear, we are approaching Iain Gray levels here.

    Humza Yousaf’s popularity has plunged with the Scottish public and his own supporters after controversies around new hate crime laws, a poll has found.

    In a major blow to the first minister, more SNP voters believe he is doing a bad job than think he is performing well as his overall personal rating dips to around the same level as Conservative leaders in Scotland.

    Just 29 per cent of people who voted for the nationalists at the last general election believe he is doing a good job, compared with 36 per cent who think he has been poor in office, while the rest are either neutral or unsure.


    This gives Yousaf a net score of -7 among the independence supporters who are crucial to his electoral fortunes and represents a huge fall since January, when he scored +14 amongst SNP voters....

    ...There was also a marked dip in enthusiasm for both Sir Keir Starmer, the UK Labour leader, and his Scottish counterpart, Anas Sarwar, whose popularity dropped by 13 points and 14 points respectively.

    Starmer’s rating of -26 and Sarwar’s score of -17 has coincided with a fall in Labour’s vote share since Norstat’s last poll in January but the party is still on course to gain seats in Scotland that could be key to it securing a majority in the House of Commons.

    Yousaf suffered the most with a 15-point fall in his approval ratings to -32 with the general public. This puts him just three points ahead of Rishi Sunak after the prime minister bucked the trend to increase his popularity by 10 points to a still lowly -35.

    Support for Labour has fallen by four points to 32 per cent while backing for the SNP had fallen by one point to the same level.

    This is the lowest score the nationalists have recorded with Norstat since the 2014 independence referendum and, according to analysis by Curtice, would result in them returning just 18 MPs in a dramatic reversal of fortunes. By contrast, Labour would win 28 constituencies and be the largest party in Scotland.

    Support for independence is at 47 per cent when undecided voters are excluded, compared with 53 per cent backing the Union.






    This is from Norstat which is the pollster formerly known as Panelbase.

    What’s that on the Truss scale?
    He's not at that level, yet.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    Or even attacks that aren't attacks at all. Bin lorries in Glasgow come to mind.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,307

    So, it transpires that the Australian 'terrorist' was an all-Australian surfer boy with mental health issues, which must come as a shock to those who assumed (hoped?) that it was an Islamic terrorist. The normal suspects seem not to be following the story any more.

    It's high time that Australia clamped down on the influx of deranged surfers. Maybe extradite them to Rwanda?

    With a history of violence against women and who targeted women in his attack.

    It is not often noted but in the case of many school shootings in the US and Islamist attacks, the perpetrator has a history of violence against women.

    Bizarrely here for a brief moment some people claimed the attacker was a young Jewish man and plastered the name of an entirely innocent man over social media.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Good morning, everyone.

    Meanwhile, missiles and drones shot by Iran at Israel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68810053

    And the Heil leads on Angela Rayner!!

    Good morning everyone!
    The Mail must think they have a chance of getting Rayner's scalp. Not sure what that would do other than feed into a low-vote "They're all as bad as each other" meme.

    Sunday Times also has a front page piece "BBC pulled Rayner clip after Labour complaint". Some nervousness in Labour circles?
    Gets worse for Rayner.

    Angela Rayner’s former aide contradicts her claim in tax row

    Matt Finnegan, who wrote a novel about a smart, northerner ‘diva’ MP, has made a statement to police


    A few weeks before Angela Rayner was elected Labour’s deputy leader in 2020, her former adviser published a thriller about an ambitious trade union official turned MP known to her staff as “the Diva”.

    Its author, Matt Finnegan, had recently left Rayner’s employment with a £20,000 payout and non-disclosure agreement after accusing her of disability discrimination and unfair dismissal. He insisted the novel Betrayal was “complete fiction”, meaning lurid claims about the private life of its protagonist — a smart and combative northerner with a penchant for shoes who had other striking similarities to his former boss — were ignored.

    Yet it is his allegations of fact that will trouble Rayner after he gave a statement to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) saying he visited her at a property in Lowndes Lane, Stockport, in the summer of 2014, around the time she became a parliamentary candidate.

    It contradicts her claim to have lived elsewhere. “There was no doubt in my mind that this was Ms Rayner’s family home, where she lived with her then husband, Mark,” his letter states.

    “I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayners-former-aide-contradicts-her-claim-in-tax-row-zm2xgpq2k
    So what ?
    In politics, sadly, perceptions often matter much than the facts, and people will see the headline.

    He appears to be a bloke with an axe to grind.
    Either the police charge her, or they don't.
    'Perceptions' at that point will be irrelevant.

    Note it's entirely possible (though not usual) to have more than one address which could be deemed 'permanent' for electoral registration purposes.
    It's not that rare. I've been in that situation occasionally and Mrs PtP is currently. Don't students regularly find themselves in that position?

    If she's committed a misdemeanour, it seems likely to have been of the most minor kind. As long as she wasn't trying to vote twice, or use the two addreses for some other illicit advantage I don't see this having much traction with the Great British Public.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited April 14
    A youth mobility scheme would help but that doesn’t seem to be likely.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    I think it's reasonable to make an assumption. Saves time at the risk of being wrong on occasion.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited April 14
    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    edited April 14

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    It’s time barred by a decade and it’s literally she used address 1 in the constituency rather than address 2 in the same constituency.

    It’s about as none story as possible because our current MP didn’t even publish his address when he stood last time round (you can opt just to say if you live I the constituency or not).

    Good job too as it tied him to a law firm that had recently gone / went bankrupt.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,286

    Good morning, everyone.

    Meanwhile, missiles and drones shot by Iran at Israel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68810053

    And the Heil leads on Angela Rayner!!

    Good morning everyone!
    The Mail must think they have a chance of getting Rayner's scalp. Not sure what that would do other than feed into a low-vote "They're all as bad as each other" meme.

    Sunday Times also has a front page piece "BBC pulled Rayner clip after Labour complaint". Some nervousness in Labour circles?
    Gets worse for Rayner.

    Angela Rayner’s former aide contradicts her claim in tax row

    Matt Finnegan, who wrote a novel about a smart, northerner ‘diva’ MP, has made a statement to police


    A few weeks before Angela Rayner was elected Labour’s deputy leader in 2020, her former adviser published a thriller about an ambitious trade union official turned MP known to her staff as “the Diva”.

    Its author, Matt Finnegan, had recently left Rayner’s employment with a £20,000 payout and non-disclosure agreement after accusing her of disability discrimination and unfair dismissal. He insisted the novel Betrayal was “complete fiction”, meaning lurid claims about the private life of its protagonist — a smart and combative northerner with a penchant for shoes who had other striking similarities to his former boss — were ignored.

    Yet it is his allegations of fact that will trouble Rayner after he gave a statement to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) saying he visited her at a property in Lowndes Lane, Stockport, in the summer of 2014, around the time she became a parliamentary candidate.

    It contradicts her claim to have lived elsewhere. “There was no doubt in my mind that this was Ms Rayner’s family home, where she lived with her then husband, Mark,” his letter states.

    “I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayners-former-aide-contradicts-her-claim-in-tax-row-zm2xgpq2k
    tl;dr

    There was an aide called Matthew Finnegan
    He's had a say on Rayner's shenanigans
    He had to wait for her to be in again
    Poor old Matthew Finnegan, this ditty ends.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    This is the background of the killer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-who-was-the-queensland-man-who-carried-out-the-bondi-junction-mass-stabbing

    His parents have confirmed this, and expressed support for the police officer who shot him.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-14/westfield-bondi-junction-attacker-identified-what-we-know/103706236

    He came from Toowoomba, where I have friends.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    I mean it is an Islamist MO for several people to rampage through a public space. Assuming this was one of those instances and not a disgruntled, misogynist surfer affects the response in terms of actions on. I would prefer the assumption be made and then further responders stood down.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    He can get to call himself the Modern Day Mandela only when he's served 27 years in jail....
    The most shocking thing about that quote is I'm old enough to think the original Nelson Mandela is still the "Modern Day" one.

    Trump obviously more down with the kids than me.

    (or possibly he's confusing Nelson Mandela with Horatio Nelson).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    edited April 14
    Cyclefree said:

    So, it transpires that the Australian 'terrorist' was an all-Australian surfer boy with mental health issues, which must come as a shock to those who assumed (hoped?) that it was an Islamic terrorist. The normal suspects seem not to be following the story any more.

    It's high time that Australia clamped down on the influx of deranged surfers. Maybe extradite them to Rwanda?

    With a history of violence against women and who targeted women in his attack.

    It is not often noted but in the case of many school shootings in the US and Islamist attacks, the perpetrator has a history of violence against women.

    Bizarrely here for a brief moment some people claimed the attacker was a young Jewish man and plastered the name of an entirely innocent man over social media.
    Misogyny may well be a cause, but so could other things, such as drug abuse.

    Did he have a history of violence against women? Do you have a link?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    TOPPING said:

    I mean it is an Islamist MO for several people to rampage through a public space. Assuming this was one of those instances and not a disgruntled, misogynist surfer affects the response in terms of actions on. I would prefer the assumption be made and then further responders stood down.

    What actions are you expecting people on PB to take?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    .
    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    They've given him far too much preferential treatment already, IMO.
    Now he's displaying open contempt for court orders on a daily basis.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    eek said:

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    It’s time barred by a decade and it’s literally she used address 1 in the constituency rather than address 2 in the same constituency.

    It’s about as none story as possible because our current MP didn’t even publish his address when he stood last time round (you can opt just to say if you live I the constituency or not).

    Good job too as it tied him to a law firm that had recently gone / went bankrupt.
    Serious question- are the Tories bonkers? They have been caught with the fingers in the till. Vast amounts of public money corruptly embezzled Gongs sold for cash. And they think there are votes in going after Rayner? For this?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    This is the background of the killer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-who-was-the-queensland-man-who-carried-out-the-bondi-junction-mass-stabbing

    His parents have confirmed this, and expressed support for the police officer who shot him.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-14/westfield-bondi-junction-attacker-identified-what-we-know/103706236

    He came from Toowoomba, where I have friends.
    Funny old world etc


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    THe latter are certainly going up the agenda. I noticed in a recent EH email that they had put a listings order on one. It does look splendid.

    https://historicengland.org.uk/listing/the-list/list-entry/1487715?section=official-list-entry
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    I think it's reasonable to make an assumption. Saves time at the risk of being wrong on occasion.
    Or of sounding like Leon...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    “Biden has privately expressed concern that Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. more deeply into a broader conflict, according to three people familiar with his comments.”
    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1779359648681783430
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    The Daily Mail has just published a video interview with Britain's greatest (and possibly next) Prime Minister.

    ‘I felt DOOMED!’ Andrew Pierce grills Liz Truss over shortest term as PM in HISTORY | The Reaction
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oe20p923Qdg
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321

    Off topic, can anyone suggest a decent alternative to the RAC's breakdown service?

    They let me down badly recently. It seems they don't take phone calls any more. You have to report via the internet. The downsides will be immediately obvious to both my readers so I won't bother to list them. Just note that they haven't occurred to the RAC so if you are with them and you don't wish to be stranded as I was recently, you might like to change to a different outfit before you find out the hard way.

    The AA, they have never let me down, the RAC on the other hand.
    Thanks, TSE. They are top of my list at the moment.
    Avoid Green Flag and others, they just are a network of local breakdown companies, so can be hit and miss, not been with them but heard horror stories about them.

    RAC screwed me over a few years. One time they cancelled a callout to my home because they thought I didn't have home start (I did) and once they made me wait 3 hours when I was broken down away from home.
    The estimated wait time was between 4 and 7 hours. We were five miles from Haverfordwest on a Wednesday afternoon, so not quite the back of beyond. I wasn't too fazed by the wait time though. It wasn't a dangerous situation (we'd gone off-road and got stuck in mud) and we were only 30 mins walk from the hotel. The problem was no internet access, so it was impossible to contact the RAC direct. In the end I phoned a friend who reported the breakdown by the internet and we walked back to the hotel. The staff there contacted a local farmer who pulled us out of the mud with his tractor, so problem solved.

    Not exactly a great advert for the RAC though.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214

    eek said:

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    It’s time barred by a decade and it’s literally she used address 1 in the constituency rather than address 2 in the same constituency.

    It’s about as none story as possible because our current MP didn’t even publish his address when he stood last time round (you can opt just to say if you live I the constituency or not).

    Good job too as it tied him to a law firm that had recently gone / went bankrupt.
    Serious question- are the Tories bonkers? They have been caught with the fingers in the till. Vast amounts of public money corruptly embezzled Gongs sold for cash. And they think there are votes in going after Rayner? For this?
    Given that we're talking about Rayner, rather than What d'ye call him — Thing'em-bob, and likewise — Never-mind,
    And 'St— 'st— 'st— and What's-his-name, and also You-know-who —
    The task of filling up the blanks I'd rather leave to you.
    , it's probably a case of job done.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    Foxy said:

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
    Last Friday's Masterchef included a "traditional British" balti pie.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    Good morning, everyone.

    Meanwhile, missiles and drones shot by Iran at Israel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68810053

    And the Heil leads on Angela Rayner!!

    Good morning everyone!
    The Mail must think they have a chance of getting Rayner's scalp. Not sure what that would do other than feed into a low-vote "They're all as bad as each other" meme.

    Sunday Times also has a front page piece "BBC pulled Rayner clip after Labour complaint". Some nervousness in Labour circles?
    "That's quite a charge".

    Not so fast on the BBC being in the pocket of socialist cabals and the Liberal elite.

    Laura Kuenssberg went studs up yesterday suggesting that the Rayner corruption scandal would be the tip of the iceberg for Starmer-Labour who the headline implies are way more corrupt than the Johnsonian and post-
    Johnsonian Conservative Party. Laura explains that Rayner ( and Starmer) demanded the innocent Boris Johnson stand down over Partygate (remember he was not even investigated for the illegal parties he attended, so he did nothing wrong) whilst not standing down themselves when they were banged to rights over Beergate. Laura also points out that Labour fronting the Party with a fishwife draw on the consequences. It is a remarkable piece.

    She has a point, the column inches alone prove this to be the biggest corruption scandal of our time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68805211
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    kamski said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean it is an Islamist MO for several people to rampage through a public space. Assuming this was one of those instances and not a disgruntled, misogynist surfer affects the response in terms of actions on. I would prefer the assumption be made and then further responders stood down.

    What actions are you expecting people on PB to take?
    Oh I was thinking of the SF on site.

    But sure I was wrong. Marauding attack with knife as a weapon and you thought must be an Aussie surfer. Or you thought wait and see.

    No fun/efficacy in that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    I think it's reasonable to make an assumption. Saves time at the risk of being wrong on occasion.
    Or of sounding like Leon...
    Yikes
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865

    eek said:

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    It’s time barred by a decade and it’s literally she used address 1 in the constituency rather than address 2 in the same constituency.

    It’s about as none story as possible because our current MP didn’t even publish his address when he stood last time round (you can opt just to say if you live I the constituency or not).

    Good job too as it tied him to a law firm that had recently gone / went bankrupt.
    Serious question- are the Tories bonkers? They have been caught with the fingers in the till. Vast amounts of public money corruptly embezzled Gongs sold for cash. And they think there are votes in going after Rayner? For this?
    Raynergate is not about votes. It is a dead cat to distract from claims of Tory corruption like those you mention, and so far it is working.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
    Again, though, why would you contact with heavily debt laden foreign private equity owned companies to provide public services ?

    There's an obvious danger of their failing, having extracted as much cash as possible, and leaving you in the lurch. With little or no recourse.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Foxy said:

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
    Last Friday's Masterchef included a "traditional British" balti pie.
    Yep, best one of Pukka Pies.

    https://www.pukkapies.co.uk/out-and-about/

    Pukka being a word we have magpied from India too.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
    Last Friday's Masterchef included a "traditional British" balti pie.
    Yep, best one of Pukka Pies.

    https://www.pukkapies.co.uk/out-and-about/

    Pukka being a word we have magpied from India too.
    M and S do a lovely chicken tikka pie . Certainly that one on Masterchef looked amazing .
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    If you read the article it has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit

    It’s the government policy on the minimum salary you have to earn to get a visa plus the cost of living.

    So valid concerns but just to say “because Brexit” makes it much harder to address the causes of the issue
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
    My aunt is in a private care home (are there NHS ones?) and as you go in the doors there is a board with the staff on it. I'm thinking there are max 40 residents, perhaps fewer, and there are 60 staff.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    They've given him far too much preferential treatment already, IMO.
    Now he's displaying open contempt for court orders on a daily basis.
    I am really not seeing how that is not a breach of his gag order. His bail should be revoked.

    Tomorrow the court starts jury selection which may well take 2-3 weeks (our juries are usually selected in about 10 minutes). Can we really have this sort of nonsense being espoused for those potential jurors to hear and read? Its truly extraordinary. Once again we see Trump double standards: he can't get a fair trial in Manhattan because New Yorkers are biased against him but he can seek to influence jurors with the most outrageous allegations of judicial bias.

    The latest I have picked up on this is that the prosecution actually have a tape recording of Trump himself discussing and authorising the cover up of the payments to Daniels. This is a far from objective assessment but contains that nugget: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-is-going-down-in-flames-when-powerful-evidence-hits-at-trial-ex-prosecutor/ar-BB1lxw9Y

    This strikes me as a slightly odd charge, there may be an argument that what we have here is a misdemeanour rather than a felony let alone 30 odd felonies. It's not of itself enormously serious but even Donald Trump does not actually contest he did it. All he contests is the right of anyone to hold him accountable for it. He seriously seems to believe that he is above the law. In fairness, he has got away with so much in his life that he has a lot of evidence to point to to back up that belief. Hopefully, this is about to change.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
    Last Friday's Masterchef included a "traditional British" balti pie.
    Yep, best one of Pukka Pies.

    https://www.pukkapies.co.uk/out-and-about/

    Pukka being a word we have magpied from India too.
    Pies ARE traditionally British.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    I think it's reasonable to make an assumption. Saves time at the risk of being wrong on occasion.
    I doubted an Islamist connection when it was reported - fairly soon - that the killer had been in the centre, left, and then returned with a knife. Odd behaviour for a planned attack.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
    Last Friday's Masterchef included a "traditional British" balti pie.
    Yep, best one of Pukka Pies.

    https://www.pukkapies.co.uk/out-and-about/

    Pukka being a word we have magpied from India too.
    M and S do a lovely chicken tikka pie . Certainly that one on Masterchef looked amazing .
    Had it last night
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    This is the background of the killer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-who-was-the-queensland-man-who-carried-out-the-bondi-junction-mass-stabbing

    His parents have confirmed this, and expressed support for the police officer who shot him.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-14/westfield-bondi-junction-attacker-identified-what-we-know/103706236

    He came from Toowoomba, where I have friends.
    This can't be right.

    We were assured by several
    of the usual suspects on here on Friday evening that this was an Islamic terror plot.

    Go back and research the right answer!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    edited April 14
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
    Again, though, why would you contact with heavily debt laden foreign private equity owned companies to provide public services ?

    There's an obvious danger of their failing, having extracted as much cash as possible, and leaving you in the lurch. With little or no recourse.
    Not only that, but if the profit can only be made by offshore financial engineering that takes money out of British taxes, is it a structure that we should permit?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    eek said:

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    It’s time barred by a decade and it’s literally she used address 1 in the constituency rather than address 2 in the same constituency.

    It’s about as none story as possible because our current MP didn’t even publish his address when he stood last time round (you can opt just to say if you live I the constituency or not).

    Good job too as it tied him to a law firm that had recently gone / went bankrupt.
    Serious question- are the Tories bonkers? They have been caught with the fingers in the till. Vast amounts of public money corruptly embezzled Gongs sold for cash. And they think there are votes in going after Rayner? For this?
    Raynergate is not about votes. It is a dead cat to distract from claims of Tory corruption like those you mention, and so far it is working.
    How is it working? For the 11 remaining Tory voters they get something to harrumph about. But social media is now full of people talking about Tory corruption as a direct response to the Rayner story.

    Social media has a much larger reach to swing voters than the Heil on Sunday and GBeebies
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    I think it's reasonable to make an assumption. Saves time at the risk of being wrong on occasion.
    I doubted an Islamist connection when it was reported - fairly soon - that the killer had been in the centre, left, and then returned with a knife. Odd behaviour for a planned attack.
    Not at all - standard recce MO.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    This is the background of the killer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-who-was-the-queensland-man-who-carried-out-the-bondi-junction-mass-stabbing

    His parents have confirmed this, and expressed support for the police officer who shot him.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-14/westfield-bondi-junction-attacker-identified-what-we-know/103706236

    He came from Toowoomba, where I have friends.
    This can't be right.

    We were assured by several
    of the usual suspects on here on Friday evening that this was an Islamic terror plot.

    Go back and research the right answer!
    As I said I was one of those and I think it perfectly reasonable to have done so. Your on the one handness could get people killed.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
    Now is now £22k. Your estimate for staff is wrong 168 a week is minimum 4 staff probably 5 to cover gaps and breaks. You then forget holiday pay / cover so you need a minimum of .6 workers to cover that if not another full time one.

    That’s £132,000 in staff costs for minimum wage workers alone - can easily see why the minimum cost is £150,000 per child because it adds up incredibly quickly..l
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    eek said:

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    It’s time barred by a decade and it’s literally she used address 1 in the constituency rather than address 2 in the same constituency.

    It’s about as none story as possible because our current MP didn’t even publish his address when he stood last time round (you can opt just to say if you live I the constituency or not).

    Good job too as it tied him to a law firm that had recently gone / went bankrupt.
    Serious question- are the Tories bonkers? They have been caught with the fingers in the till. Vast amounts of public money corruptly embezzled Gongs sold for cash. And they think there are votes in going after Rayner? For this?
    Raynergate is not about votes. It is a dead cat to distract from claims of Tory corruption like those you mention, and so far it is working.
    How is it working? For the 11 remaining Tory voters they get something to harrumph about. But social media is now full of people talking about Tory corruption as a direct response to the Rayner story.

    Social media has a much larger reach to swing voters than the Heil on Sunday and GBeebies
    The BBC have gone in with their boots on too. I suspect Laura has had to re-edit her entire programme today. If only Iran had held off for 24 hours.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
    Again, though, why would you contact with heavily debt laden foreign private equity owned companies to provide public services ?

    There's an obvious danger of their failing,
    having extracted as much cash as possible, and leaving you in the lurch. With little or no recourse.
    CareTech is the market leader in the UK and was a publicly listed company until about 2 years ago. It was then bought out *by the founder and his brother* who already owned about 40% with support from some investors. I assume they used Jersey for tax reasons.

    As to why you would contract with them these are relationship driven businesses. The local commissioners already have a view which provider would be most suitable for an individual case and talk to them directly rather than putting it out for tender. Financial stability is a factor that is considered but track record in the local area is far more important.

    (As an aside CareTech has had some staffing issues as they cocked up their international recruitment execution, but that’s not relevant to this argument)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Way off-topic;

    This is fun: tracking light planes during the eclipse in the US:
    https://twitter.com/DJSnM/status/1779344357017174290
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    This is the background of the killer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-who-was-the-queensland-man-who-carried-out-the-bondi-junction-mass-stabbing

    His parents have confirmed this, and expressed support for the police officer who shot him.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-14/westfield-bondi-junction-attacker-identified-what-we-know/103706236

    He came from Toowoomba, where I have friends.
    This can't be right.

    We were assured by several
    of the usual suspects on here on Friday evening that this was an Islamic terror plot.

    Go back and research the right answer!
    As I said I was one of those and I think it perfectly reasonable to have done so. Your on the one handness could get people killed.
    Ridiculous, are the Australian authorities not responding because MexicanPete isn't sure what kind of attack it is?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
    My aunt is in a private care home (are there NHS ones?) and as you go in the doors there is a board with the staff on it. I'm
    thinking there are max 40 residents,
    perhaps fewer, and there are 60 staff.
    That’s about right for the staff ratio and a decent size for a home: 40-50 residents is about right.

    All homes are private but there is a mix between LA and private funding. NHS only pays for nursing care if required as a supplement



  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    kamski said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    This is the background of the killer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-who-was-the-queensland-man-who-carried-out-the-bondi-junction-mass-stabbing

    His parents have confirmed this, and expressed support for the police officer who shot him.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-14/westfield-bondi-junction-attacker-identified-what-we-know/103706236

    He came from Toowoomba, where I have friends.
    This can't be right.

    We were assured by several
    of the usual suspects on here on Friday evening that this was an Islamic terror plot.

    Go back and research the right answer!
    As I said I was one of those and I think it perfectly reasonable to have done so. Your on the one handness could get people killed.
    Ridiculous, are the Australian authorities not responding because MexicanPete isn't sure what kind of attack it is?
    Could be if those in charge are avid PB fans.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    I think it's reasonable to make an assumption. Saves time at the risk of being wrong on occasion.
    I doubted an Islamist connection when it was reported - fairly soon - that the killer had been in the centre, left, and then returned with a knife. Odd behaviour for a planned attack.
    Not at all - standard recce MO.
    I disagree. It sounded much more to me like someone who had had an argument with someone / shop, then went back armed later.

    We're talking about pretty much immediately returning, not a gap of hours or days.

    Can you name attacks where the recce occurred *immediately* before the attack?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    TOPPING said:

    For the nth time it doesn't matter where she was actually living it matters what address she nominated, if any, as her primary residence for tax purposes.

    According to Neidle that doesn't matter either. You can nominate whichever property you want or none of them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    They've given him far too much preferential treatment already, IMO.
    Now he's displaying open contempt for court orders on a daily basis.
    I am really not seeing how that is not a breach of his gag order. His bail should be revoked.

    Tomorrow the court starts jury selection which may well take 2-3 weeks (our juries are usually selected in about 10 minutes). Can we really have this sort of nonsense being espoused for those potential jurors to hear and read? Its truly extraordinary. Once again we see Trump double standards: he can't get a fair trial in Manhattan because New Yorkers are biased against him but he can seek to influence jurors with the most outrageous allegations of judicial bias.

    The latest I have picked up on this is that the prosecution actually have a tape recording of Trump himself discussing and authorising the cover up of the payments to Daniels. This is a far from objective assessment but contains that nugget: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-is-going-down-in-flames-when-powerful-evidence-hits-at-trial-ex-prosecutor/ar-BB1lxw9Y

    This strikes me as a slightly odd charge, there may be an argument that what we have here is a misdemeanour rather than a felony let alone 30 odd felonies. It's not of itself enormously serious but even Donald Trump does not actually contest he did it. All he contests is the right of anyone to hold him accountable for it. He seriously seems to believe that he is above the law. In fairness, he has got away with so much in his life that he has a lot of evidence to point to to back up that belief. Hopefully, this is about to change.
    It is possible the excitement gets dissipated if Trump pleads guilty to a series of downgraded misdemeanour charges and gets a fine. Misdemeanour being less politically toxic than "convicted felon Donald Trump...".

    However, uncertain whether that would be offered or accepted. Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer/consiglieri, has done jail time for the very felony circumstances at the centre of this case. And Cohen wants vengeance. This is not about "bookkeeping errors". This is about hiding from the voters that Trump bought the silence of those who would otherwise have shared with the voters the true nature of the candidate. You might call it election interference.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    Isn’t Trump himself from New York?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    This is the background of the killer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-who-was-the-queensland-man-who-carried-out-the-bondi-junction-mass-stabbing

    His parents have confirmed this, and expressed support for the police officer who shot him.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-14/westfield-bondi-junction-attacker-identified-what-we-know/103706236

    He came from Toowoomba, where I have friends.
    This can't be right.

    We were assured by several
    of the usual suspects on here on Friday evening that this was an Islamic terror plot.

    Go back and research the right answer!
    As I said I was one of those and I think it perfectly reasonable to have done so. Your on the one handness could get people killed.
    What?

    Have you recently been dropped on your head?

    How it is safety first to stereotypically blame Muslims for every tragic psycho drama that plays out on the streets?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
    Last Friday's Masterchef included a "traditional British" balti pie.
    Yep, best one of Pukka Pies.

    https://www.pukkapies.co.uk/out-and-about/

    Pukka being a word we have magpied from India too.
    Pukka Pies are rubbish, with hardly any filling!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
    Nmw is now £22k. Your estimate for staff is wrong 168 a week is minimum 4 staff probably 5 to cover gaps and breaks. You then forget holiday pay / cover so you need a minimum of .6 workers to cover that if not another full time one.

    That’s £132,000 in staff costs for minimum wage workers alone - can easily see why
    the minimum cost is £150,000 per child because it adds up incredibly quickly..l
    Thanks - googled to get the NMW and must have picked up an old number. Good point on holiday cover etc. (corrected typo in your original post to make it easier to follow discussion - nmw instead of now)
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Foxy said:

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
    Last Friday's Masterchef included a "traditional British" balti pie.
    That’s because if you want to please John Torode you have to serve up spicy food, ideally South Asian or Caribbean. Classical French, Italian, British … meh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    It’s negotiated dependent on the services required.

    I assume that the children in the Observer article are the most challenging cases.

    Let’s say they need 2 staff members available for 24/7 care (and some cases, especially where there the children can be violent you can have 3x24/7)

    NMW of £18k x 2 x 3 (2 staff, 3 shifts) = £108k. Add in some for accommodation and ancillaries plus a margin and you very quickly get to £150k

    Financing / corporate overhead are paid for out of the margin.
    My aunt is in a private care home (are there NHS ones?) and as you go in the doors there is a board with the staff on it. I'm thinking there are max 40 residents, perhaps fewer, and there are 60 staff.
    Of whom an average of 20 will be on duty in each 8 hour period (probably more during the day and less at night). The staffing ratios required for those unable to care for themselves, whether young children in care or senile old folks in a home are frightening. 24 hour care is a hell of a commitment for anyone, ask the prison service.

    I used to do some work for the SSSC who regulate care homes in Scotland. Many of those homes were private companies but they needed a proportion of their residents to be private payers who could cross subsidise those for whom the home got the local authority rate. Homes simply could not afford to meet the staffing ratios on the local authority rate. The system runs on a shoe string and the days when a care home was a licence to print money are a distant memory.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Morning all!

    So have Iran and Israel nuked each other yet? :lol:
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    edited April 14

    eek said:

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    It’s time barred by a decade and it’s literally she used address 1 in the constituency rather than address 2 in the same constituency.

    It’s about as none story as possible because our current MP didn’t even publish his address when he stood last time round (you can opt just to say if you live I the constituency or not).

    Good job too as it tied him to a law firm that had recently gone / went bankrupt.
    Serious question- are the Tories bonkers? They have been caught with the fingers in the till. Vast amounts of public money corruptly embezzled Gongs sold for cash. And they think there are votes in going after Rayner? For this?
    I think what they are doing makes sense (in terms of winning an election, which they won't), although it is far from moral:

    a) Put in people's minds that all politicians are all as bad as one another
    b) Get this story in the media so as to squeeze out any other stories. All the voters hear about are dodgy Labour and nothing else.

    Most voters are neither reading the details nor following politics on social media. It is all background stuff that works.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    edited April 14
    TOPPING said:

    I mean it is an Islamist MO for several people to rampage through a public space. Assuming this was one of those instances and not a disgruntled, misogynist surfer affects the response in terms of actions on. I would prefer the assumption be made and then further responders stood down.

    Nice try. I'm not suggesting the police don't cover all eventualities. We were discussing people on social media making assumptions and calling for policy responses as a result.

    I don't think waiting a few hours for the facts to emerge is too much to ask in such circumstances. It would save a lot of wasted discussion on false premises.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    I'm confused - is it impossible for an Italian restaurant to employ someone not from Italy??
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    Morning all!

    So have Iran and Israel nuked each other yet? :lol:

    A bit early. Bart hasn't risen yet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    Foxy said:

    Excellent. 17.4m people voted to shut down places selling foreign muck and replace them with Pie and Mash shops.
    Sadly pie and mash shops are closing too.

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/after-100-years-this-iconic-london-pie-and-mash-shop-is-closing-for-good-011624
    Last Friday's Masterchef included a "traditional British" balti pie.
    That’s because if you want to please John Torode you have to serve up spicy food, ideally South Asian or Caribbean. Classical French, Italian, British … meh.
    I really like the program but it is hard not to groan out loud when you find that the solution the contestant has come up with is yet another curry. They really need to try to encourage a broader range of produce. Jay Rayner's test of producing a pie was a good example of how this can be done.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    Isn’t Trump himself from New York?
    Monday should be fun. Is he going to be held on remand. A fine is pointless. I can't see him coping in jail and I think he may be very wrong in thinking that will make him a martyr.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    This is the background of the killer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-who-was-the-queensland-man-who-carried-out-the-bondi-junction-mass-stabbing

    His parents have confirmed this, and expressed support for the police officer who shot him.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-14/westfield-bondi-junction-attacker-identified-what-we-know/103706236

    He came from Toowoomba, where I have friends.
    This can't be right.

    We were assured by several
    of the usual suspects on here on Friday evening that this was an Islamic terror plot.

    Go back and research the right answer!
    As I said I was one of those and I think it perfectly reasonable to have done so. Your on the one handness could get people killed.
    What?

    Have you recently been dropped on your head?

    How it is safety first to stereotypically blame Muslims for every tragic psycho drama that plays out on the streets?
    The police and other responders have a difficult position to take in such an event: is this attack by a single person, more than one person, or part of a concerted campaign, perhaps at multiple sites? (Some, like ?Brevik? or Cumbria can be one person at multiple locations). Making the wrong assumptions can prove fatal, as we saw at the Manchester bombing a few years back, where medics were delayed going in.

    But assumptions of whether this is a Muslim or a.n.other attack probably matters little on the ground - the type of attack matters much more.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Douglas Murray said the one potential additional chapter of his book 'the madness of crowds' was 'mental health'.
    It would be interesting to see if mental health is ultimately accepted as an explanation for a terrorist style rampage or crashing a passenger aeroplane in to a mountain - if there are no political/religious associations.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited April 14
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    They've given him far too much preferential treatment already, IMO.
    Now he's displaying open contempt for court orders on a daily basis.
    I am really not seeing how that is not a breach of his gag order. His bail should be revoked.

    Tomorrow the court starts jury selection which may well take 2-3 weeks (our juries are usually selected in about 10 minutes). Can we really have this sort of nonsense being espoused for those potential jurors to hear and read? Its truly extraordinary. Once again we see Trump double standards: he can't get a fair trial in Manhattan because New Yorkers are biased against him but he can seek to influence jurors with the most outrageous allegations of judicial bias.

    The latest I have picked up on this is that the prosecution actually have a tape recording of Trump himself discussing and authorising the cover up of the payments to Daniels. This is a far from objective assessment but contains that nugget: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-is-going-down-in-flames-when-powerful-evidence-hits-at-trial-ex-prosecutor/ar-BB1lxw9Y

    This strikes me as a slightly odd charge, there may be an argument that what we have here is a misdemeanour rather than a felony let alone 30 odd felonies. It's not of itself enormously serious but even Donald Trump does not actually contest he did it. All he contests is the right of anyone to hold him accountable for it. He seriously seems to believe that he is above the law. In fairness, he has got away with so much in his life that he has a lot of evidence to point to to back up that belief. Hopefully, this is about to change.
    The one I quoted is typical of his constant 79 times a day commentary.

    One of Trump's other latest is that he can't get a fair trial because of all the publicity poisoning the Jury pool. I think the Judge has filed that one in the round filing cabinet.

    Another one he is trying is to see if he can be tried for the misdemeanour charge of falsifying business records, instead of or as well as the felony charge that those offences were committed in order to manipulate an election (which clearly they were). That requires the Judge (who he has been abusing as above) to make a suitable ruling.

    And he has another attempt to get SCOTUS to run interference for him for more delay, around iirc this Civil Case should be delayed because SCOTUS are still thinking about an issue in another Criminal Case that he wants to pretend is relevant.

    On the social media statements, if it is not witnessed by the Judge there has to be some sort of evidence / finding process.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871
    Morning all :)

    I suspect, knowing Israel has one of the most powerful air defence systems in the world, Tehran knew full well drones wouldn't make much of an impact.

    It was a gesture - after the attack on the Iranian Consulate building in Damascus, they had to do something though their own weakness and Israel's strength meant it had to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. All last night told us was at the moment drones may work in some wars but they won't work against serious military tech and defences.

    After all, Iraq's Scud missiles had only a limited impact more than 30 years ago and the world has moved on a lot since then. Yes, we can accentuate the "threat" (and that serves military, industrial and political interests) but Iran isn't any threat in and of itself though its proxies may be.

    I'm not particularly worried about Russia either - they aren't the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact with 100 armoured divisions two hours drive from the Rhine. Nuclear weapons, of course, but they have them for the same reason we have them, not to use them but because their key rivals have them.

    That doesn't mean we should relax our guard - it isn't a right of self defence but an obligation. Protecting your citizens is up there as one of the main responsibilities of any Government. One of the failings of this administration (and arguably its predecessors) has been the neglect of our defences and it isn't about money or share of GDP. It's simply about making sure what you have works and is available and is keeping abreast of technological and strategic developments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    Isn’t Trump himself from New York?
    Monday should be fun. Is he going to be held on remand. A fine is pointless. I can't see him coping in jail and I think he may be very wrong in thinking that will make him a martyr.
    They'll never put him in jail and he knows it. But I'm thinking the judge is holding off any other sanctions until trial starts at least.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Good morning, everyone.

    Meanwhile, missiles and drones shot by Iran at Israel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68810053

    And the Heil leads on Angela Rayner!!

    Good morning everyone!
    The Mail must think they have a chance of getting Rayner's scalp. Not sure what that would do other than feed into a low-vote "They're all as bad as each other" meme.

    Sunday Times also has a front page piece "BBC pulled Rayner clip after Labour complaint". Some nervousness in Labour circles?
    Gets worse for Rayner.

    Angela Rayner’s former aide contradicts her claim in tax row

    Matt Finnegan, who wrote a novel about a smart, northerner ‘diva’ MP, has made a statement to police


    A few weeks before Angela Rayner was elected Labour’s deputy leader in 2020, her former adviser published a thriller about an ambitious trade union official turned MP known to her staff as “the Diva”.

    Its author, Matt Finnegan, had recently left Rayner’s employment with a £20,000 payout and non-disclosure agreement after accusing her of disability discrimination and unfair dismissal. He insisted the novel Betrayal was “complete fiction”, meaning lurid claims about the private life of its protagonist — a smart and combative northerner with a penchant for shoes who had other striking similarities to his former boss — were ignored.

    Yet it is his allegations of fact that will trouble Rayner after he gave a statement to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) saying he visited her at a property in Lowndes Lane, Stockport, in the summer of 2014, around the time she became a parliamentary candidate.

    It contradicts her claim to have lived elsewhere. “There was no doubt in my mind that this was Ms Rayner’s family home, where she lived with her then husband, Mark,” his letter states.

    “I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayners-former-aide-contradicts-her-claim-in-tax-row-zm2xgpq2k

    Hilarious ...

    “I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    They've given him far too much preferential treatment already, IMO.
    Now he's displaying open contempt for court orders on a daily basis.
    I am really not seeing how that is not a breach of his gag order. His bail should be revoked.

    Tomorrow the court starts jury selection which may well take 2-3 weeks (our juries are usually selected in about 10 minutes). Can we really have this sort of nonsense being espoused for those potential jurors to hear and read? Its truly extraordinary. Once again we see Trump double standards: he can't get a fair trial in Manhattan because New Yorkers are biased against him but he can seek to influence jurors with the most outrageous allegations of judicial bias.

    The latest I have picked up on this is that the prosecution actually have a tape recording of Trump himself discussing and authorising the cover up of the payments to Daniels. This is a far from objective assessment but contains that nugget: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-is-going-down-in-flames-when-powerful-evidence-hits-at-trial-ex-prosecutor/ar-BB1lxw9Y

    This strikes me as a slightly odd charge, there may be an argument that what we have here is a misdemeanour rather than a felony let alone 30 odd felonies. It's not of itself enormously serious but even Donald Trump does not actually contest he did it. All he contests is the right of anyone to hold him accountable for it. He seriously seems to believe that he is above the law. In fairness, he has got away with so much in his life that he has a lot of evidence to point to to back up that belief. Hopefully, this is about to change.
    It is possible the excitement gets dissipated if Trump pleads guilty to a series of downgraded misdemeanour charges and gets a fine. Misdemeanour being less politically toxic than "convicted felon Donald Trump...".

    However, uncertain whether that would be offered or accepted. Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer/consiglieri, has done jail time for the very felony circumstances at the centre of this case. And Cohen wants vengeance. This is not about "bookkeeping errors". This is about hiding from the voters that Trump bought the silence of those who would otherwise have shared with the voters the true nature of the candidate. You might call it election interference.
    You might but that is not the charge. And suggesting that politicians trying to hide a bit of bad or embarrassing news is "election interference" is a somewhat tricky road to go down. Was Blair's lies about Iraq in the 2005 election interference?

    I did read a piece indicating that the smart move by Trump's lawyers was to offer pleas to a misdemeanour charge but I am not sure he would let them do it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767

    If you read the article it has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit

    It’s the government policy on the minimum salary you have to earn to get a visa plus the cost of living.

    So valid concerns but just to say “because Brexit” makes it much harder to address the causes of the issue
    Er, without Brexit the Italian waiters wouldn't need visas!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for Australia, I assumed it was an Islamist marauding attack.

    You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.

    There have been enough attacks - like the recent one in Nottingham - that haven't been Islamist, that there's no way of knowing until the evidence one way or the other emerges.

    So, yeah, it's obviously likely, but you'd have to be pretty dense to assume anything about it.
    I think it's reasonable to make an assumption. Saves time at the risk of being wrong on occasion.
    I doubted an Islamist connection when it was reported - fairly soon - that the killer had been in the centre, left, and then returned with a knife. Odd behaviour for a planned attack.
    Well that’s the real scoop, there in plain sight!

    The attacker was on the centre-left.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @guardian

    Even Europe’s far-right firebrands seem to sense Brexit is a disaster | William Keegan

    https://t.co/lWyeDquyJL
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Off topic - at every point of the income scale, people in England live longer than people in the US. I would not have thought that at the top end. The gap at the bottom is truly remarkable.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1779077095454281774
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Good morning, everyone.

    Meanwhile, missiles and drones shot by Iran at Israel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68810053

    And the Heil leads on Angela Rayner!!

    Good morning everyone!
    The Mail must think they have a chance of getting Rayner's scalp. Not sure what that would do other than feed into a low-vote "They're all as bad as each other" meme.

    Sunday Times also has a front page piece "BBC pulled Rayner clip after Labour complaint". Some nervousness in Labour circles?
    Gets worse for Rayner.

    Angela Rayner’s former aide contradicts her claim in tax row

    Matt Finnegan, who wrote a novel about a smart, northerner ‘diva’ MP, has made a statement to police


    A few weeks before Angela Rayner was elected Labour’s deputy leader in 2020, her former adviser published a thriller about an ambitious trade union official turned MP known to her staff as “the Diva”.

    Its author, Matt Finnegan, had recently left Rayner’s employment with a £20,000 payout and non-disclosure agreement after accusing her of disability discrimination and unfair dismissal. He insisted the novel Betrayal was “complete fiction”, meaning lurid claims about the private life of its protagonist — a smart and combative northerner with a penchant for shoes who had other striking similarities to his former boss — were ignored.

    Yet it is his allegations of fact that will trouble Rayner after he gave a statement to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) saying he visited her at a property in Lowndes Lane, Stockport, in the summer of 2014, around the time she became a parliamentary candidate.

    It contradicts her claim to have lived elsewhere. “There was no doubt in my mind that this was Ms Rayner’s family home, where she lived with her then husband, Mark,” his letter states.

    “I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayners-former-aide-contradicts-her-claim-in-tax-row-zm2xgpq2k

    Hilarious ...

    “I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”

    Which begs the question how did he know her exact living arrangements if he was only there once .
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    If you read the article it has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit

    It’s the government policy on the minimum salary you have to earn to get a visa plus the cost of living.

    So valid concerns but just to say “because Brexit” makes it much harder to address the causes of the issue
    Er, without Brexit the Italian waiters wouldn't need visas!
    I suspect it’s not just about Italian waiters. My experience of mid range European restaurants in London pre-Brexit (and still now, to some extent), is most staff were Eastern European, particularly Polish. True of most of the hospitality sector.

    Most migration is now from Africa or the subcontinent but you don’t tend to see many African or Asian waiting staff in European restaurants for some reason. Perhaps because there are jobs in Indian restaurants.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224
    edited April 14
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    I missed this:
    "I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela" - Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/06/trump-being-jailed-for-gag-order-violation-would-be-great-honor.html

    I'd say the US Justice System needs to apply its principle of equality before the law to ex-Presidents who are convicted of, or on trial for, civil or criminal offences.

    This is the most recent I've noticed. For some reason he does not mention his exploitation of his position as owner / promoter of pageants to wander around the back rooms of pageants filled with half dressed teenage girls.
    They've given him far too much preferential treatment already, IMO.
    Now he's displaying open contempt for court orders on a daily basis.
    I am really not seeing how that is not a breach of his gag order. His bail should be revoked.

    Tomorrow the court starts jury selection which may well take 2-3 weeks (our juries are usually selected in about 10 minutes). Can we really have this sort of nonsense being espoused for those potential jurors to hear and read? Its truly extraordinary. Once again we see Trump double standards: he can't get a fair trial in Manhattan because New Yorkers are biased against him but he can seek to influence jurors with the most outrageous allegations of judicial bias.

    The latest I have picked up on this is that the prosecution actually have a tape recording of Trump himself discussing and authorising the cover up of the payments to Daniels. This is a far from objective assessment but contains that nugget: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-is-going-down-in-flames-when-powerful-evidence-hits-at-trial-ex-prosecutor/ar-
    BB1lxw9Y


    This strikes me as a slightly odd charge, there
    may be an argument that what we have here is a
    misdemeanour rather than a felony let alone 30
    odd felonies. It's not of itself enormously serious
    but even Donald Trump does not actually contest
    he did it. All he contests is the right of anyone to
    hold him accountable for it. He seriously seems
    to believe that he is above the law. In fairness, he
    has got away with so much in his life that he has
    a lot of evidence to point to to back up that belief.
    Hopefully, this is about to change.
    He's just a tin-pot JK Rowling, isn't he?

    Taunting the authorities to apply their own laws, knowing that his celebrity power will stop them.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I suspect, knowing Israel has one of the most powerful air defence systems in the world, Tehran knew full well drones wouldn't make much of an impact.

    It was a gesture - after the attack on the Iranian Consulate building in Damascus, they had to do something though their own weakness and Israel's strength meant it had to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. All last night told us was at the moment drones may work in some wars but they won't work against serious military tech and defences.

    After all, Iraq's Scud missiles had only a limited impact more than 30 years ago and the world has moved on a lot since then. Yes, we can accentuate the "threat" (and that serves military, industrial and political interests) but Iran isn't any threat in and of itself though its proxies may be.

    I'm not particularly worried about Russia either - they aren't the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact with 100 armoured divisions two hours drive from the Rhine. Nuclear weapons, of course, but they have them for the same reason we have them, not to use them but because their key rivals have them.

    That doesn't mean we should relax our guard - it isn't a right of self defence but an obligation. Protecting your citizens is up there as one of the main responsibilities of any Government. One of the failings of this administration (and arguably its predecessors) has been the neglect of our defences and it isn't about money or share of GDP. It's simply about making sure what you have works and is available and is keeping abreast of technological and strategic developments.

    Nevertheless the first direct flights from Iran to Israel since 1979....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Carnyx said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Meanwhile, missiles and drones shot by Iran at Israel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68810053

    And the Heil leads on Angela Rayner!!

    Good morning everyone!
    The Mail must think they have a chance of getting Rayner's scalp. Not sure what that would do other than feed into a low-vote "They're all as bad as each other" meme.

    Sunday Times also has a front page piece "BBC pulled Rayner clip after Labour complaint". Some nervousness in Labour circles?
    Gets worse for Rayner.

    Angela Rayner’s former aide contradicts her claim in tax row

    Matt Finnegan, who wrote a novel about a smart, northerner ‘diva’ MP, has made a statement to police


    A few weeks before Angela Rayner was elected Labour’s deputy leader in 2020, her former adviser published a thriller about an ambitious trade union official turned MP known to her staff as “the Diva”.

    Its author, Matt Finnegan, had recently left Rayner’s employment with a £20,000 payout and non-disclosure agreement after accusing her of disability discrimination and unfair dismissal. He insisted the novel Betrayal was “complete fiction”, meaning lurid claims about the private life of its protagonist — a smart and combative northerner with a penchant for shoes who had other striking similarities to his former boss — were ignored.

    Yet it is his allegations of fact that will trouble Rayner after he gave a statement to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) saying he visited her at a property in Lowndes Lane, Stockport, in the summer of 2014, around the time she became a parliamentary candidate.

    It contradicts her claim to have lived elsewhere. “There was no doubt in my mind that this was Ms Rayner’s family home, where she lived with her then husband, Mark,” his letter states.

    “I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayners-former-aide-contradicts-her-claim-in-tax-row-zm2xgpq2k
    "Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car" is certainly conducive to more than one interpretation. As is "around the time she became a parliamentary candidate", given that the house sale was years before.

    I've worked with people for decades and have no idea of their arrangements ...
    Sad git looking to make money on his grudge. It was 10 years ago so absolute bollox.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @BethRigby

    Victoria Atkins tells @TrevorPTweets govt is planning for flights to Rwanda “within weeks” as bill returns to HoC in coming days

    @lizziedearden

    The scale of the Rwanda scheme is now very different to the large-scale and systematic removals originally promised by ministers

    A civil servant told me efforts are geared towards a single flight as “proof of concept”, calling it an “election vanity scam”
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kjh said:

    eek said:

    If I understand correctly, the latest Raynergate scandal is that she allegedly broke electoral law by registering at the wrong address.

    Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.

    High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.

    It’s time barred by a decade and it’s literally she used address 1 in the constituency rather than address 2 in the same constituency.

    It’s about as none story as possible because our current MP didn’t even publish his address when he stood last time round (you can opt just to say if you live I the constituency or not).

    Good job too as it tied him to a law firm that had recently gone / went bankrupt.
    Serious question- are the Tories bonkers? They have been caught with the fingers in the till. Vast amounts of public money corruptly embezzled Gongs sold for cash. And they think there are votes in going after Rayner? For this?
    I think what they are doing makes sense (in terms of winning an election, which they won't), although it is far from moral:

    a) Put in people's minds that all politicians are all as bad as one another
    b) Get this story in the media so as to squeeze out any other stories. All the voters hear about are dodgy Labour and nothing else.

    Most voters are neither reading the details nor following politics on social media. It is all background stuff that works.
    I'm not sure they are thinking it through to that extent Those with an agenda against Rayner including the Conservative Party and allied media see a target so go in for the attack.

    However I am much more interested in the honeytrap story, which is much more widespread and organised than just William Wragg, and which certain parts of the media have very limited interest in investigating for some reason. Maybe it's your point (b).

    It would of course be concerning if a foreign security service was successfully sexting lots of MPs, but seemingly this isn't the case. So who is behind this and why? That's perhaps even more worrying.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68796369
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    kamski said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean it is an Islamist MO for several people to rampage through a public space. Assuming this was one of those instances and not a disgruntled, misogynist surfer affects the response in terms of actions on. I would prefer the assumption be made and then further responders stood down.

    What actions are you expecting people on PB to take?
    We stand at our keyboards: ready.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the private system is providing extra capacity at an average cost of £150 000 per year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england

    Most of that is staff costs. These organisations work on a negotiated price which is cost + margin

    Depends what you count as costs. It all smells rather like Thames Water...

    CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.

    https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
    That thread is well worth a read.

    Ever wonder why our councils are skint...

    Not tackling the children's mental health crisis further upstream proves to be very expensive indeed.
    Indeed.

    How to deal with those abuses, which are afaics all about Private Equity getting access to public sector stable cashflows via as-low-tax-as-possible arrangements which are here via Jersey offshore companies.

    Can a future Govt (Cons won't do it obviously) apply "onshoring" requirements for companies providing public sector services?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @FreddieBailey96

    These Tory MPs calling for Angela Rayner to resign over £1,500 actually went out and defended Tory MP Nadhim Zahawi when he owed HMRC £4.8 MILLION QUID.
This discussion has been closed.