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A plea to the bookies – politicalbetting.com
A plea to the bookies – politicalbetting.com
Can we please have constituency markets and spreads for the general election?
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Meanwhile, missiles and drones shot by Iran at Israel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68810053
Spread betting and exchanges set themselves, but do need liquidity, but the usual constituency markets at orthodox bookies are simply risky. Which Con seat should be a 1.02 to hold now, when we are in Lab take Fidcot territory?
Good morning everyone!
1. Iran will claim that their attack was a proportionate response to Damascus attack and is now complete. Their population will claim victory.
2. America will put extreme pressure on Israel to stand down. They will claim that US, UK, Jordan & Saudi were all actively involved in defence of Israel and enough is enough.
3. Israel will grudgingly accept that nothing was hit - they will seethe and plot but will agree to stand down.
But in the longer term....the long awaited Iran v Saudi/UAE war will kick off
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/13/vulnerable-children-illegal-unregulated-care-homes-england
Israel is that internet wanker who always has to have the last word.
Iran's mission to the UN cited the UN Charter provision for self defence, under Article 51, and said that it considered the "matter... concluded"
I do wonder if part of the aim last night was to better understand Israeli defences, and to deplete them of missiles/ammo somewhat.
Oh, and he was a Lib Dem...
But yes, I suspect that they won't fire any more missiles unless Netanyahu wades full in. They didn't actually achieve anything after all other than to look rather inept. And I don't think even Netanyahu's crazy enough to launch a full-scale war with Iran.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/13/a-russian-pacifist-helped-ukrainians-flee-the-country-then-the-kremlin-caught-him
Private Equity seeing an opportunity to buy in and charge whatever they damn well please.
It was bound to end like this. Ted Heath on faces of capitalism rather applies here. (Would Rishi, bless him, be able to make the same point, or have large chunks of capitalism just become too faceless?)
It feels like what could have been a very high moment of danger has receded a bit. The question now is how Israel responds.
My concern is that Israel now knows its enemy will casually lob some missiles at it from its territory. At the moment it’s conventional drones and missiles. But at what point in the future could it fire a WMD?
There must be a train of thinking in the Israeli government that the time to strike the Iranian nuclear sites is now.
Assuming no significant Israeli response, all this latest episode has done is reinforced, if anyone was still doubtful, that we need to start investing more in defence, pronto. We can’t rely on states in our rapidly destabilising world to play nicely and in a de-escalatory manner, and our tech and capabilities need to be rock-solid.
The only one he'll perhaps listen (somewhat) to is Biden and the US, so they'll no doubt be setting out the limits to him this morning.
In addition, Iran has been doing these attacks for years; but just using proxies.
Don't fall into the trap of making the Iranians out to be the victims, or even the good guys, in this. Israel *may* be the 'bad' guys; but if so, then they're not alone.
I can’t help thinking that it is not going to do much for their somewhat battered morale.
So far, his strategy in widening the war to take the pressure off his forces in Ukraine has had some positive effect for him. It's destabilised the US Congress allowing his stooges there to block aid, distracted Biden by causing him electoral pressure in an election year, and put pressure on oil prices meaning the Ukrainians will be unpopular when they strike Russian oil refining capacity to undercut the economy.
A full war between Israel and Iran would drag the US in and I can't imagine that's what he wants. There are so many potential downsides for him if it goes badly - not least, the loss of Iranian weaponry that's crucial to Russian operations in Ukraine.
Equally, Putin has not been making the sanest decisions in recent years (since 2014 when the Iron Maidan Revolution took place, really) so this is a pretty dangerous moment.
Those two may have swapped roles, regularly.
Only explanation.
I’ve also had success on constituency markets by listening to locals. It was kind of @Taz to hat tip my Woking prediction for the LibDems at the last locals.
One of the best features of this site is when knowledgeable people bracket their own desires, or even prejudices, to offer insights. When @MikeSmithson gave that brilliant Chesham & Amersham tip some of us did very well. We need more of this kind of thing please.
Bet with your head not your heart. Easy to say, sometimes hard to practice.
I wonder if they now regret their intransigence. After all, they ended up being targeted anyway.
It does serve him somewhat in it reinforces the “look how dangerous the world has gotten under Biden” right wing talking point. Although actually (and with the caveat that we are not through this particular crisis yet) what last night and this morning has actually shown, conversely, is that Biden is once again a rather skilled diplomatic operator. Whether it will be seen like that (hint, in many quarters, it won’t) is another matter.
I frankly wonder how we would have coped.
But yes, Israel's 'support' of Russia early on in this conflict was hideous, and their backtracking in the last year far too late, and far too weak.
Israel picked the wrong side.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/04/13/top-10-tory-donors-mansour-sainsbury-honours-row-labour-tra/ (£££)
I’ll leave you men to your war talk …
Have a nice day. xx
Lots of love xxx
It’s a much smaller and cheaper system than Patriot, aimed at smaller missiles as have characterised the attacks on Israel in recent years, costs $50k a missile, vs $4m for Patriot, the larger system being more useful against incoming aircraft and large missiles.
It would definitely be useful for Ukraine, and there’s a formal request to Israel to allow the export of the technology from the US. The Israelis do have half a point about capture though, Iran would put a large bounty on stealing parts of the system for analysis.
It's high time that Australia clamped down on the influx of deranged surfers. Maybe extradite them to Rwanda?
I think Sporting have been burned once or twice, which would explain their caution, but obviously if they use suspensions excessively they are blunting one of the punters most important tools, namely the ability to move swiftly in and out of positions as circumstances require.
I wouldn't avoid Sporting, but be aware they can do this and exercise caution accordingly.
Humza Yousaf’s popularity has plunged with the Scottish public and his own supporters after controversies around new hate crime laws, a poll has found.
In a major blow to the first minister, more SNP voters believe he is doing a bad job than think he is performing well as his overall personal rating dips to around the same level as Conservative leaders in Scotland.
Just 29 per cent of people who voted for the nationalists at the last general election believe he is doing a good job, compared with 36 per cent who think he has been poor in office, while the rest are either neutral or unsure.
This gives Yousaf a net score of -7 among the independence supporters who are crucial to his electoral fortunes and represents a huge fall since January, when he scored +14 amongst SNP voters....
...There was also a marked dip in enthusiasm for both Sir Keir Starmer, the UK Labour leader, and his Scottish counterpart, Anas Sarwar, whose popularity dropped by 13 points and 14 points respectively.
Starmer’s rating of -26 and Sarwar’s score of -17 has coincided with a fall in Labour’s vote share since Norstat’s last poll in January but the party is still on course to gain seats in Scotland that could be key to it securing a majority in the House of Commons.
Yousaf suffered the most with a 15-point fall in his approval ratings to -32 with the general public. This puts him just three points ahead of Rishi Sunak after the prime minister bucked the trend to increase his popularity by 10 points to a still lowly -35.
Support for Labour has fallen by four points to 32 per cent while backing for the SNP had fallen by one point to the same level.
This is the lowest score the nationalists have recorded with Norstat since the 2014 independence referendum and, according to analysis by Curtice, would result in them returning just 18 MPs in a dramatic reversal of fortunes. By contrast, Labour would win 28 constituencies and be the largest party in Scotland.
Support for independence is at 47 per cent when undecided voters are excluded, compared with 53 per cent backing the Union.
This is from Norstat which is the pollster formerly known as Panelbase.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-struggling-to-escape-electoral-quagmire-k7jcpvm39
They let me down badly recently. It seems they don't take phone calls any more. You have to report via the internet. The downsides will be immediately obvious to both my readers so I won't bother to list them. Just note that they haven't occurred to the RAC so if you are with them and you don't wish to be stranded as I was recently, you might like to change to a different outfit before you find out the hard way.
Additional clearer footage of Israeli Arrow ABM conducting an exoatmospheric (space) kill on an Iranian ballistic missile earlier tonight.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779312589039694002
Though a Russia which occupied Ukraine would be much more of a threat than the current version.
RAC screwed me over a few years. One time they cancelled a callout to my home because they thought I didn't have home start (I did) and once they made me wait 3 hours when I was broken down away from home.
#ToryScum
Netenyahu was doing his whole “eye for an eye” routine last night.
I would hope that *America* would do a proportionate response on Israel’s behalf and then they could all just go back to peaceably hating each other
I don't recall the police being hailed as heroes, though I'm sure people were grateful they were there and did what needed to be done. The people who have been hailed as heroes have been people like the chap with the narwhal horn, or the lady who intervened with Lee Rigby's killer.
People have only criticised the police when they've unloaded their weapons into complete innocents, like Harry Stanley or Jean Charles de Menezes.
Ukraine's airforce is barely able to offer air defence over its own terrotory.
Which makes DuraAce's assurance from a couple of years back that F16s would be useless to them look nonsense.
Sunday Times also has a front page piece "BBC pulled Rayner clip after Labour complaint". Some nervousness in Labour circles?
They replaced a tyre on Mrs Foxy's car, and 100 miles later the car lost control on a motorway putting her in hospital, and the car and another one was a total write off. It was too damaged for the investigators to prove a cause, but my suspicions remain.
Angela Rayner’s former aide contradicts her claim in tax row
Matt Finnegan, who wrote a novel about a smart, northerner ‘diva’ MP, has made a statement to police
A few weeks before Angela Rayner was elected Labour’s deputy leader in 2020, her former adviser published a thriller about an ambitious trade union official turned MP known to her staff as “the Diva”.
Its author, Matt Finnegan, had recently left Rayner’s employment with a £20,000 payout and non-disclosure agreement after accusing her of disability discrimination and unfair dismissal. He insisted the novel Betrayal was “complete fiction”, meaning lurid claims about the private life of its protagonist — a smart and combative northerner with a penchant for shoes who had other striking similarities to his former boss — were ignored.
Yet it is his allegations of fact that will trouble Rayner after he gave a statement to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) saying he visited her at a property in Lowndes Lane, Stockport, in the summer of 2014, around the time she became a parliamentary candidate.
It contradicts her claim to have lived elsewhere. “There was no doubt in my mind that this was Ms Rayner’s family home, where she lived with her then husband, Mark,” his letter states.
“I remember it quite vividly because Ms Rayner was not at home at first and I had to wait for some time in my car before she eventually arrived. It was also memorable in that it was the first and only time I visited her home during the course of my voluntary work for her.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayners-former-aide-contradicts-her-claim-in-tax-row-zm2xgpq2k
Can we have a bet about ex-MPs on GB News as well, since there are more of them?
Are there any other places with TWO MPs there - we have both Leeanderthal and Gloria, if she is still in the bunker. Though "lunchtime with" needs to be "out to lunch with", given some of the guests.
I've worked with people for decades and have no idea of their arrangements ...
Brilliant.
He appears to be a bloke with an axe to grind.
CareTech is owned through a company called Amalfi Midco, which is based in Jersey, to the benefit of international investors. They have loaded the company with debts of £780 million, charging CareTech tens of millions of pounds in interest and financial fees.
https://twitter.com/MartinBarrow/status/1772328757124038730
I would not be surprised btw,
It would be just like Sunak's measure to get more disabled people off benefit by making the Work Capability Assessment even more abusive than it is already - ask some disabled friends if you doubt that - whilst simultaneously trying to close all the ticket offices so disabled people find it more difficult to *get* to work.
(A bit knackered and off the soccer this afternoon, so had to be brief.)
You'd have to be pretty dense, and oblivious to previous attacks and Islamist MOs not to consider that as a likely option.
Instead of registering at her true address in Stockport, she instead was registered at her other address in Stockport. Thus falsely getting her a vote in Stockport instead of the constituency she should have voted in which was Stockport.
High crimes and misdemeanours indeed. Thank god the Tories - who are free from sin - are doing the public a favour by going after this one.
The only way that Hunt's fiscal projections remotely pass muster is to have spending cuts at this level of brutality. We just don't know what they are planned to be yet.
Kaliningrad to London is less than Tehran to Jerusalem, just saying.
'Perceptions' at that point will be irrelevant.
Note it's entirely possible (though not usual) to have more than one address which could be deemed 'permanent' for electoral registration purposes.