... is going to be problematic for Osborne after 19 September if the result is Yes.
If it is a No then both Cameron and Osborne are going to be smelling of roses. They have both taken huge risks during the IndyRef campaign, and a No would be an immense personal boost for both of them.
Ah, the southron attitude in a nutshell; the Scots are wise people if they vote No, and they can **** off if they vote Yes. Btw, most 'Cybernats' know enough about politics south of the border to be able to spell the chancellor's name correctly.
Replying to EiT (am having trouble with 'quotes'):
That assumes we get continual growth, something which governments have a habit of assuming. Unfortunately recessions always occur at some point.
And the growth we're seeing is yet agin concentrated in wealth consumption not wealth creation - all that talk of rebalancing the economy now having been forgotten.
The economic cycle used to go as follows:
1) Wealth creation and wealth consumption high 2) Wealth creation falls in a recession 3) Wealth consumption falls in austerity 4) Wealth creation rises in recovery 5) Wealth consumption rises in boom
The present 'recovery' has largely skiped steps (3) and (4).
On the subject of productivity while you are correct that it has been a long term problem for Britain the ONS stats show that it has become much worse during the last decade and this has happened at a time when we have ever more competitors around the world.
Ha! I rather like that endorsement Stuart - I suspect I fall into a small group of PBers who will have heard of her (parents of children under six who do the morning drop off!) but those that have heard of her, hear from her every weekday morning.
Quite interesting, her comments on culture vs economics - I wonder how many Scots fall into that camp?
Boris is moving towards hubris. When a politician gets it into his head that he is "loved", "liked", "can communicate with one and all" then he is in very dangerous territory. Boris twice narrowly defeated the by then unelectable Ken Livingstone for a job that in the great scheme of things does not matter very much. It will not end well for him.
... is going to be problematic for Osborne after 19 September if the result is Yes.
.
Ah, the southron attitude in a nutshell; the Scots are wise people if they vote No, and they can **** off if they vote Yes. Btw, most 'Cybernats' know enough about politics south of the border to be able to spell the chancellor's name correctly.
well-adjusted adults, they lash out.
M25.
I thibk there are far fewer unionists than you think, outside Scotland because it honestly makes no perceptible difference to anyone living south of Carlisle. Scotland has problems specific to itself which aren't going to be addressed by a Westminster government with one MP north of the border, so if Scotland opts for independence good luck to it (and it will genuinely have the good will of most sane EWNI residents)..
A much larger movement than unionism is the "let's all laugh at Eck" tendency which is legitimate and beneficial if it helps to clarify in any way at all what the Scots are voting for.
I agree, most people in England are too busy getting on with their life or don't really care and think it is up to Scottish people to decide. However the establishment , ie the ones coining in the benefits are shrieking at the thought that they lose their power, they and their propaganda unit BBC and their friends in the MSM are stirring it big style. You then get supposed intelligent people like Fox pontificating from a totally ignorant viewpoint because he read it in some London rag. His unconscious bias cannot be kept in check. He has to speak down to people thinking as a pillar of the establishment that he understands that these pesky natives should be jolly glad him and his chums are looking after them.
"I'm not interested in the economics and the politics of it, it's the culture of it that really would make me very happy if we could become independent."
If you genuinely want to know, then I would suggest that you buy the Orange Book. It is availible on Amazon. Essentially it is centrist Social Democracy for the 21st Century.
I suspect though, that you are implying that the 60%ish of the electorate to the right of Labour are all Cameroons, in which case you need more enlightening than I can supply.
You then get supposed intelligent people like Fox pontificating from a totally ignorant viewpoint because he read it in some London rag. His unconscious bias cannot be kept in check.
That is quite someone who previously said anyone who didn't agree with him by voting no at the ballot box was insane!
It is due to their attitude that they are superior and that we should not have the temerity to question the fact.
Like when a CyberNat, who may live in Sweden for example, claims that another poster doesn't know anything about Scotland?
Yes, that is really going to win friends and influence people
Scott, when comparing your input and that of Stuart, it is very obvious who has a clue about Scotland.
Malcolm, do you seriously dispute that 'more Scottish than thou' and 'no true Scot' are not the gambits of the Nats?
Carlotta, I was commenting on the input, Stuart rightly or wrongly provides input and opinions that can be discussed , some positive and some negative for YES, but SCott just regurgitates negative stereotype pap of how poor , wee and stupid Scotland is. Scott has no personal input , just a droid parroting other negative opinions, every post negative and forlorn of hope. Win or lose he is a NO hoper, Stuart at least has a vision and will have optimism for the future regardless of the result. That is the key difference. If I was going for a pint I know whose company I would prefer.
PS your question is bollocks, we are all Scots and everybody who votes is entitled to vote YES or NO. I am of the opinion that YES people have hope and ambition , NO are just insecure people who lack hope and ambition. However good luck to all of them and we will get the country we vote for.
Just posturing..Can Ukraine really take on Russia?
If the Ukrainians want to overthrow a democratically elected government,then Russia has the right to protect ethnic Russians in my view.
What exactly are the Russian occupation forces protecting ethnic Russians from ?
Does Putin have the "right" to protect ethnic Russians and occupy other east European states? :
Latvia - 27% ethnic Russian Estonia - 26% Lithuania - 6% Belarus - 8% Moldova - 6%
Not forgetting New York, London, Juan-les-Pins etc.
I have an acquaintance who has (or at least had) a Latvian passport. However she described herself as “Russian”. Young woman, in her early 30’s I think. Economist/accountant. Educated in Germany, working in UK.
You then get supposed intelligent people like Fox pontificating from a totally ignorant viewpoint because he read it in some London rag. His unconscious bias cannot be kept in check.
That is quite someone who previously said anyone who didn't agree with him by voting no at the ballot box was insane!
You are obviously thick and do not understand humour. Seek help to have your humour bypass removed.
You then get supposed intelligent people like Fox pontificating from a totally ignorant viewpoint because he read it in some London rag. His unconscious bias cannot be kept in check.
That is quite someone who previously said anyone who didn't agree with him by voting no at the ballot box was insane!
You are obviously thick and do not understand humour. Seek help to have your humour bypass removed.
Whoosh. The wink was there for a reason. Although I clearly can't type out my sentences properly this morning.
Just posturing..Can Ukraine really take on Russia?
If the Ukrainians want to overthrow a democratically elected government,then Russia has the right to protect ethnic Russians in my view.
What exactly are the Russian occupation forces protecting ethnic Russians from ?
Does Putin have the "right" to protect ethnic Russians and occupy other east European states? :
Latvia - 27% ethnic Russian Estonia - 26% Lithuania - 6% Belarus - 8% Moldova - 6%
Not forgetting New York, London, Juan-les-Pins etc.
The ethnic makeup of Belgravia has changed markedly over the past few years - invasion by Russian multi-millionaires/billionaires armed with a vast pile of cash is a wee bit different from the present Crimean annexation.
Although Mrs JackW had something of a confrontation in Harrods food hall with a Russian "lady" and her burly "friend" over the quant British custom of polite queueing.
There was only ever going to be one winner. Centuries of Scottish noble breeding instils a natural aura that few can withstand.
There are and will be some interesting indicators today regarding the Ukrainian military and also Russian military moves in the east of the country. Also some of the key actors are being revealed.
Note, there are Russian security service and military elements in other parts of the Ukraine not just Crimea. No one really seems to have mentioned it, it is small scale, but they were sighted yesterday.
Apart from the increased US 6th fleet presence sitting and heading towards the Straits of Bosphorus no point talking about the West response yet as there hasn't been an overt or covert physical one, yet.
Just posturing..Can Ukraine really take on Russia?
If the Ukrainians want to overthrow a democratically elected government,then Russia has the right to protect ethnic Russians in my view.
What exactly are the Russian occupation forces protecting ethnic Russians from ?
Does Putin have the "right" to protect ethnic Russians and occupy other east European states? :
Latvia - 27% ethnic Russian Estonia - 26% Lithuania - 6% Belarus - 8% Moldova - 6%
Not forgetting New York, London, Juan-les-Pins etc.
I have an acquaintance who has (or at least had) a Latvian passport. However she described herself as “Russian”. Young woman, in her early 30’s I think. Economist/accountant. Educated in Germany, working in UK.
Latvian... careful now, it only needs someone to mention homophobes and Scrapheap's prediction will surely come true!
PPP Iowa Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016? •Hillary Clinton 67% {71%} [68%] (58%) {60%} [62%] (44%) •Joe Biden 12% {12%} [21%] (17%) {18%} [14%] (13%) •Elizabeth Warren 5% {5%} [2%] (3%) {3%} [4%] •Mark Warner 3% {2%} [2%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (1%) •Andrew Cuomo 2% {1%} [2%] (6%) {3%} [4%] (7%) •Cory Booker 1% {1%} (3%) •Kirsten Gillibrand 0% {2%} [0%] •Martin O’Malley 0% {1%} [0%] (0%) {0%} [1%] •Brian Schweitzer 0% {0%} [0%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) •Someone else/Not sure 10% {5%} [3%] (13%) {14%} [9%] (21%)
Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016? •Joe Biden 40% {51%} [58%] (40%) {36%} [28%] •Elizabeth Warren 13% {16%} [7%] (9%) {8%} [10%] •Andrew Cuomo 8% {9%} [13%] (14%) {14%} [14%] •Martin O’Malley 5% {2%} [0%] (4%) {2%} [0%] •Cory Booker 2% {6%} •Kirsten Gillibrand 2% {2%} [6%] •Mark Warner 2% {1%} [2%] (1%) {3%} [1%] •Brian Schweitzer 1% {0%} [1%] (1%) {4%} [2%] •Someone else/Not sure 28% {13%} [11%] (28%) {34%} [36%]
If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for President in 2016, who would you most like to see as the Democratic nominee? •Elizabeth Warren 21% {20%} [17%] (13%) {11%} [13%] •Andrew Cuomo 11% {18%} [26%] (30%) {20%} [17%] •Cory Booker 8% {12%} •Martin O’Malley 6% {4%} [8%] (3%) {2%} [3%] •Kirsten Gillibrand 3% {7%} [5%] •Brian Schweitzer 2% {3%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [4%] •Mark Warner 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {6%} [1%] •Someone else/Not sure 47% {33%} [37%] (46%) {53%} [47%]
The core Unionist problem is that deep down they feel hurt. But instead of dealing with their inner turmoil like well-adjusted adults, they lash out.
The core Nat problem is that deep down they feel hurt because they are losing. But instead of dealing with their inner turmoil like well-adjusted adults, they lash out like children, scweaming "It's not fair, nasty bully saying things we don't like to hear!"
what a saddo, try having an original thought
Malcolm you do nothing to promote your side of the argument by constantly insulting anyone who happens to disagree with you. Scott P has as clear an insight into 21st century Scotland as you, Stuart, me or any other resident of Scotland. He just happens to see things in a different way from you.
One thing I agree with is that Scotland will get what it votes for. I fear that will be independence. Before you start accusing me of being anti-Scottish, just remember I know and can name my ancestors who fought at Bannockburn including The Bruce and equally those who signed the Declaration of Arbroath. Can you?
On Osborne, it surely depends on the election result. If Cameron loses then Osborne goes down with him, and the leadership election would probably end up as Boris v Theresa May.
If Cameron wins or leads the largest party again (either in a minority government or another Coalition) then Osborne would be the 'heir apparent' and Boris yesterday's news once his mayoral term ends in 2016
You then get supposed intelligent people like Fox pontificating from a totally ignorant viewpoint because he read it in some London rag. His unconscious bias cannot be kept in check.
That is quite someone who previously said anyone who didn't agree with him by voting no at the ballot box was insane!
You are obviously thick and do not understand humour. Seek help to have your humour bypass removed.
Whoosh. The wink was there for a reason. Although I clearly can't type out my sentences properly this morning.
Rob , when you are an old codger you do not see winks , put some spaces in next time and give me a chance, I have removed my foot from my mouth and normal service will be resumed. I promise to concentrate a bit harder and read to the very end. I will also shave an inch or two off my thickness.
The core Unionist problem is that deep down they feel hurt. But instead of dealing with their inner turmoil like well-adjusted adults, they lash out.
The core Nat problem is that deep down they feel hurt because they are losing. But instead of dealing with their inner turmoil like well-adjusted adults, they lash out like children, scweaming "It's not fair, nasty bully saying things we don't like to hear!"
what a saddo, try having an original thought
Malcolm you do nothing to promote your side of the argument by constantly insulting anyone who happens to disagree with you. Scott P has as clear an insight into 21st century Scotland as you, Stuart, me or any other resident of Scotland. He just happens to see things in a different way from you.
One thing I agree with is that Scotland will get what it votes for. I fear that will be independence. Before you start accusing me of being anti-Scottish, just remember I know and can name my ancestors who fought at Bannockburn including The Bruce and equally those who signed the Declaration of Arbroath. Can you?
Easterross I would normally agree with you , but not in the case of Scott. I am afraid I cannot stomach people who can only denigrate Scotland, he surely has some positive for his opinion or the country. Fine to have opinions either way but not to put down Scotland 100% of the time.
While I like most sane people try and steer clear of the unionist/scots nat handbag fight I was so bemused by this I thought I would bring it to the PB and share it
Ha! I rather like that endorsement Stuart - I suspect I fall into a small group of PBers who will have heard of her (parents of children under six who do the morning drop off!) but those that have heard of her, hear from her every weekday morning.
Quite interesting, her comments on culture vs economics - I wonder how many Scots fall into that camp?
A lot.
Of course, the culture vs economics arguments are not mutually exclusive. A sound economy, competent public administration, a flourishing culture, and popular democracy. Those concepts are deeply intertwined with each other.
England/Wales/NI should keep the name "United Kingdom: +60 Indy Scot should keep the £: -15 Indy Scot should pay its share of UK debt: +69 Indy Scot should apply to join EU vs auto-membership: +55 Indy Scot full ownership of North Sea oil: -12
"I'm not interested in the economics and the politics of it, it's the culture of it that really would make me very happy if we could become independent."
You could call Mairi Hedderwick many things, but a "luvvie" is not one of them.
While I like most sane people try and steer clear of the unionist/scots nat handbag fight I was so bemused by this I thought I would bring it to the PB and share it
While I like most sane people try and steer clear of the unionist/scots nat handbag fight I was so bemused by this I thought I would bring it to the PB and share it
Replying to EiT (am having trouble with 'quotes'):
That assumes we get continual growth, something which governments have a habit of assuming. Unfortunately recessions always occur at some point.
And the growth we're seeing is yet agin concentrated in wealth consumption not wealth creation - all that talk of rebalancing the economy now having been forgotten.
The economic cycle used to go as follows:
1) Wealth creation and wealth consumption high 2) Wealth creation falls in a recession 3) Wealth consumption falls in austerity 4) Wealth creation rises in recovery 5) Wealth consumption rises in boom
The present 'recovery' has largely skiped steps (3) and (4).
On the subject of productivity while you are correct that it has been a long term problem for Britain the ONS stats show that it has become much worse during the last decade and this has happened at a time when we have ever more competitors around the world.
Great to see you back, ar. I was beginning to mourn your absence.
Though judging by your posts on Osborne this morning it seems you have learned little whilst away.
George is not borrowing £100 bn a year. Even when measured by the fantasy constructs of the ONS and OBR.
House prices have fallen in real terms since 2007 and all key affordability ratios have improved.
There is no artificial house price boom stoked by excessive credit.
The Help to Buy scheme is aimed at, and succeeding in achieving, increased home ownership (or more accurately it is at this stage stemming its decline) by easing deposit raising constraints on first time buyers.
Debating with SNats is futile: Dimmer-switches have more potential. Case-in-point:
They spout that Faslane could be turned over to the Chinese or Russians; how stupid is that? A few rust-buckets brim-filled with toxic warheads would show 'us Engerlisch' how to respect them...?
Look at the Indian Naval Service: At least their Admiral had some decency and resigned. Scotland should become 'nae mah' than a shadow of the Oirish Republic and thank God for the English....
While I like most sane people try and steer clear of the unionist/scots nat handbag fight I was so bemused by this I thought I would bring it to the PB and share it
Not sure I agree with OGH's comment as regards Osborne's supposed lack of charisma - as CoE he is given very little opportunity to express his true self and outside the straight-laced confines of his necessarily serious political demeanour, he is said to be very engaging company. The very fact that he WANTS the top job must make this a value bet - where btw those nice people at William Hill are offering best odds of 16/1. I'm on!
"I'm not interested in the economics and the politics of it, it's the culture of it that really would make me very happy if we could become independent."
While I like most sane people try and steer clear of the unionist/scots nat handbag fight I was so bemused by this I thought I would bring it to the PB and share it
very interesting and informative. No hope of BBC changing their bias however.
A blogpost complaining about cartographic accuracy should get its figures right. Their coastline lengths appear utterly incorrect.
“We have more coast. Scotland has 10,246 miles of coastline. England’s coastline is 1,988 miles.”
Yet from (1): England is 6261 miles, Scotland 11,550 miles, both figures including islands. It looks like they got their figures from Wiki (2), which seems *way* out. But please let's not get started on the fractal nature of the coast ...
Project Fear accepts that it called itself Project Fear, but doesn't want to talk about it.
'No interview with McDougall would be complete without mention of "Project Fear", the in-house joke that got out - via the Sunday Herald - and came back to bite the campaign. An ironic name for Better Together among its own staff, it was seized on by the Yes side as the perfect summation of the Unionist campaign. He no longer denies the phrase came from Better Together, and tries to laugh it off as trivia, but he's obviously uncomfortable. Is he still kicking himself? "Not particularly, no. Look, these things, people get very excited about them, but are they really going to influence people's views in terms of how they vote? I don't think so." Was it his personal coinage? "No." Has he stopped using it? "I don't think we're going to get into this." Did Alistair Darling not pick up the phone and say, "What the hell was that about?" There is a weary pause. "I think we've said everything we've got to say."
But Roger has never held to a principle for longer than it takes to down a bottle of champagne!
He should return immediately!
This post has no sober purpose but to agree with your analysis: Wee-timmy should also return. Maybe - if only we could - we should make it a bit more explicit...?
This post has no sober purpose but to agree with your analysis:
<i>Wee-timmy</i> should also return.
Yeah right. As a middle class Lancashire lad, comprehensive educated, now living in the provincial East Midlands, I am a pillar of the establishment. That establishment that encompasses just about everyone!
If anyone speaks down and pontificates it is yourself, malcolmg. After all you know better than the sixty percent of Scots planning to vote No, and the pollsters who report their fairly consistent position.
... is going to be problematic for Osborne after 19 September if the result is Yes.
.
Ah, the southron attitude in a nutshell; the Scots are wise people if they vote No, and they can **** off if they vote Yes. Btw, most 'Cybernats' know enough about politics south of the border to be able to spell the chancellor's name correctly.
well-adjusted adults, they lash out.
M25.
I .
I agree, most people in England are too busy getting on with their life or don't really care and think it is up to Scottish people to decide. However the establishment , ie the ones coining in the benefits are shrieking at the thought that they lose their power, they and their propaganda unit BBC and their friends in the MSM are stirring it big style. You then get supposed intelligent people like Fox pontificating from a totally ignorant viewpoint because he read it in some London rag. His unconscious bias cannot be kept in check. He has to speak down to people thinking as a pillar of the establishment that he understands that these pesky natives should be jolly glad him and his chums are looking after them.
Yet from (1): England is 6261 miles, Scotland 11,550 miles, both figures including islands. It looks like they got their figures from Wiki (2), which seems *way* out. But please let's not get started on the fractal nature of the coast ...
While I like most sane people try and steer clear of the unionist/scots nat handbag fight I was so bemused by this I thought I would bring it to the PB and share it
very interesting and informative. No hope of BBC changing their bias however.
A blogpost complaining about cartographic accuracy should get its figures right. Their coastline lengths appear utterly incorrect.
“We have more coast. Scotland has 10,246 miles of coastline. England’s coastline is 1,988 miles.”
Yet from (1): England is 6261 miles, Scotland 11,550 miles, both figures including islands. It looks like they got their figures from Wiki (2), which seems *way* out. But please let's not get started on the fractal nature of the coast ...
Oh, I don't know - we seemingly need to get into fractality. The Scottish coast is going to be on a higher level of fractal dimensionality than the English coast, on average, thanks to pretty much universal glaciation, sealochs/firths, raised beaches and so on, and even the voes/wicks of the Old Red Sandstone terrain, so you have to add that dimensionality to your linear measure ...
Looking at the various drivers' prospects for the forthcoming F1 season, new Ferrari man Kimi Raikkonen appears to be particularly generously priced imo at 14/1 with Ladbrokes.
"I'm not interested in the economics and the politics of it, it's the culture of it that really would make me very happy if we could become independent."
"I'm not interested in the economics and the politics of it, it's the culture of it that really would make me very happy if we could become independent."
Mr. Putney, Raikkonen has two potential hurdles. The first is the car. I think Ferrari is fairly high on the reliability side, but pace is hard to judge. He also has the problem of Alonso, who is a very good driver indeed.
Odd that Magnussen and Raikkonen have identical odds.
Just posturing..Can Ukraine really take on Russia?
If the Ukrainians want to overthrow a democratically elected government,then Russia has the right to protect ethnic Russians in my view.
What the hell are you talking about? The Ukrainians didn't storm the government and replace them with violence: the Ukrainian parliament legitimately voted to remove the President from power. It's like saying that the Brits overthrow their government in 1990.
And since when did left-wingers support the right for countries to invade their neighbours because of ethnic ties? Would it have been ok for Albania to invade Kosovo? Was it ok for Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait?
I've been shocked by the remarks of the left on here in recent days. What we have is the most blatant illegal invasion of a neighbouring country, and yet a number of posters are defending it using the most contorted of reasons that don't stand up to a moment's scrutiny. It's not even like back in the 1980s when there was some sort of ideological kinship with the communist USSR: Putin's is a reactionary, nationalist regime backed up by the Orthodox church. It just must be that these people hate the West so much that they are taking an "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" mentality, even when it may result in the collapse of an entire nation thats struggling towards democracy.
If anyone speaks down and pontificates it is yourself, malcolmg. After all you know better than the sixty percent of Scots planning to vote No, and the pollsters who report their fairly consistent position.
60% of Scots plan to vote No? Can we we get a link to this amazing poll, or are your maths as atrocious as your spelling.
On topic: I made a modest investment in Osborne as next Tory leader a few days ago. It looks to me as though he is on manoeuvres, with a series of interviews and photo-opportunities clearly designed to increase and round out his public profile. He wouldn't be doing this if he didn't think there will in due course be an opportunity to take the credit for what is increasingly being seen for what it is - an extremely impressive Chancellorship.
We shouldn't fuss too much about the exact circumstances under which Osborne might become leader. Politics is too uncertain and the greasy pole too full of surprises. All you need to know is that he is one of the prime contenders by virtue of his position and influence; when a leadership contest eventually happens, he may well be one of the candidates. The important thing to remember is that the party membership don't get a say until the final round, so to win this contest a politician first has to position himself amongst MPs, and secondly try to manoeuvre things in such a way as to be merely the more highly regarded (amongst members) of the two who make it to the final round.
Given all the uncertainties, though, I wouldn't go much below 12/1.
Will the Conscripts turn up? and if so for which side.
The substantial minority of ethnic Russians, and of Russian speaking Ukranians may not be keen to fight alongside the Right Sector, who have just abolished their language as an official language of Ukraine, and may not want to recieve orders in Ukranian.
There are and will be some interesting indicators today regarding the Ukrainian military and also Russian military moves in the east of the country. Also some of the key actors are being revealed.
Note, there are Russian security service and military elements in other parts of the Ukraine not just Crimea. No one really seems to have mentioned it, it is small scale, but they were sighted yesterday.
Apart from the increased US 6th fleet presence sitting and heading towards the Straits of Bosphorus no point talking about the West response yet as there hasn't been an overt or covert physical one, yet.
Most polls have a roughly sixty/forty split, discounting the undecideds. Past experience in referenda is that the undecideds tend either to not vote or to go to the status quo.
We shall see in time who is right, but polls putting Yes ahead are few and far between.
If anyone speaks down and pontificates it is yourself, malcolmg. After all you know better than the sixty percent of Scots planning to vote No, and the pollsters who report their fairly consistent position.
60% of Scots plan to vote No? Can we we get a link to this amazing poll, or are your maths as atrocious as your spelling.
On topic: I made a modest investment in Osborne as next Tory leader a few days ago. It looks to me as though he is on manoeuvres, with a series of interviews and photo-opportunities clearly designed to increase and round out his public profile. He wouldn't be doing this if he didn't think there will in due course be an opportunity to take the credit for what is increasingly being seen for what it is - an extremely impressive Chancellorship.
We shouldn't fuss too much about the exact circumstances under which Osborne might become leader. Politics is too uncertain and the greasy pole too full of surprises. All you need to know is that he is one of the prime contenders by virtue of his position and influence; when a leadership contest eventually happens, he may well be one of the candidates. The important thing to remember is that the party membership don't get a say until the final round, so to win this contest a politician first has to position himself amongst MPs, and secondly try to manoeuvre things in such a way as to be merely the more highly regarded (amongst members) of the two who make it to the final round.
Given all the uncertainties, though, I wouldn't go much below 12/1.
Richard
The George and Boris scrap is not directly about leadership ambitions, although I accept this is a subtext. It is more about George asserting his alpha-male role and bringing Boris into line in support of the Conservatives 2015 re-election campaign.
George knows you can't be disloyal and subsequently win a Tory leadership campaign so he is applying the pressure on Boris to commit.
Boris no doubt resents being bullied in this way but I suspect the message has been received. Sometimes George isn't very nice but he is effective.
If Boris did announce that he was seeking a HoC seat in 2015, the press would have announced it as a leadership challenge to Cameron. Now George has intervened it is more likely to be portrayed as loyal support for Cameron and a public show of team spirit.
Doesn't fractality mean that coastlines are infinite in length?
I told you not to get started on this! ;-)
The great Mandelbrots' first mathematical paper on fractals was called "How Long Is the Coast of Britain? Statistical Self-Similarity and Fractional Dimension"
And yes, the more detailed you go, the longer it gets until, in theory, at infinite detail you have infinite length. That is why the OS usually uses the (I think) high-tide mark. But again, it depends on the scale of the map used. That's why it's best to use figures for all nations derived from the same organisation that has used the same criteria.
Having walked the coastlines of mainland England, Scotland and Wales, I make it as 6,266.5 walker-miles in length. ;-)
Doesn't fractality mean that coastlines are infinite in length?
Yes. However there is not one infinity. There are orders of magnitude of infinities or to put it more simply some infinities are bigger than others. Therefore it is entirely possible that the Scottish coastline (an infinite line encompassing a finite area) is much longer than the English coastline (another infinite line which encompasses a bigger area).
Replying to EiT (am having trouble with 'quotes'):
That assumes we get continual growth, something which governments have a habit of assuming. Unfortunately recessions always occur at some point.
And the growth we're seeing is yet agin concentrated in wealth consumption not wealth creation - all that talk of rebalancing the economy now having been forgotten.
The economic cycle used to go as follows:
1) Wealth creation and wealth consumption high 2) Wealth creation falls in a recession 3) Wealth consumption falls in austerity 4) Wealth creation rises in recovery 5) Wealth consumption rises in boom
The present 'recovery' has largely skiped steps (3) and (4).
On the subject of productivity while you are correct that it has been a long term problem for Britain the ONS stats show that it has become much worse during the last decade and this has happened at a time when we have ever more competitors around the world.
Great to see you back, ar. I was beginning to mourn your absence.
Though judging by your posts on Osborne this morning it seems you have learned little whilst away.
George is not borrowing £100 bn a year. Even when measured by the fantasy constructs of the ONS and OBR.
House prices have fallen in real terms since 2007 and all key affordability ratios have improved.
There is no artificial house price boom stoked by excessive credit.
The Help to Buy scheme is aimed at, and succeeding in achieving, increased home ownership (or more accurately it is at this stage stemming its decline) by easing deposit raising constraints on first time buyers.
Glad to have stopped your mourning Avery, I like to take a break from pb bubble now and again and have used the extra spare time on my investments. I have been fortunate to buy KAZ and TRP at exactly the right time although slightly concerned that events in Ukraine might have an effect on KAZ next week.
I did look in occassionally and saw you fooling BenM with your Maxwell style accounting.
I on the other hand know something about accounts and that government borrowing has been per calendar year:
2011 £118bn 2012 £120bn 2013 £110bn
as five minutes perusal at the ONS website will show.
I would expect government borrowing to fall below £100bn during calendar year 2014 but with the collorary that household borrowing will show a large increase.
And please do not deny that the government is trying to raise house prices, Osborne saw nothing wrong with that when Labour were in government so he's going to see nothing wrong with it now.
Most polls have a roughly sixty/forty split, discounting the undecideds. Past experience in referenda is that the undecideds tend either to not vote or to go to the status quo.
We shall see in time who is right, but polls putting Yes ahead are few and far between.
If anyone speaks down and pontificates it is yourself, malcolmg. After all you know better than the sixty percent of Scots planning to vote No, and the pollsters who report their fairly consistent position.
60% of Scots plan to vote No? Can we we get a link to this amazing poll, or are your maths as atrocious as your spelling.
60% of 5m Scots? No. 60% of 4m Scottish electorate? No. 60% of Scots intending to vote? No. 60% of all current polling? No.
'Poll of polls shows monthly move towards Yes voteNovember average (excluding undecideds):
Yes: 38% No: 62% December average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 39% No: 61% January average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 41% No: 59% February average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 42% No: 58%'
Dr. Leonid Reshetnikov, the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Research and a leading Russian political analyst, [speaking about the Ukrainian Government's announcement of a military draft] told Itar-Tass .
“That’s a rather demonstrative action and an attempt to scare Russia and, in the first place, the sections of Ukrainian population that continue speaking against the fascizoids who have seized power in Kiev,” he said.
The prospects for drafting the needed number of men are very dim “because it’s extremely difficult to do a sizable mobilization today,” Dr. Reshetnikov said. “Scarcely anyone will rush to the drafting stations in the eastern and southern regions of the country and those willing to report for the call-up in the central and western regions won’t be many either.” “I think the process of shirking mobilization will be a massive and active one at the same time,” he said.
“Except one or two units, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are rather weak now” and heavily disoriented in the political sense. It is running the risks of demoralization if it fails to assimilate the newcomers quickly,” Dr. Reshetnikov said.
“That’s why I expect this mobilization will be a purely formal action, provided it takes place at all,” he said.
What a wonderful new word: "fascizoid". SeanT would be proud of that one.
Will the Conscripts turn up? and if so for which side.
The substantial minority of ethnic Russians, and of Russian speaking Ukranians may not be keen to fight alongside the Right Sector, who have just abolished their language as an official language of Ukraine, and may not want to recieve orders in Ukranian.
There are and will be some interesting indicators today regarding the Ukrainian military and also Russian military moves in the east of the country. Also some of the key actors are being revealed.
Note, there are Russian security service and military elements in other parts of the Ukraine not just Crimea. No one really seems to have mentioned it, it is small scale, but they were sighted yesterday.
Apart from the increased US 6th fleet presence sitting and heading towards the Straits of Bosphorus no point talking about the West response yet as there hasn't been an overt or covert physical one, yet.
Most polls have a roughly sixty/forty split, discounting the undecideds. Past experience in referenda is that the undecideds tend either to not vote or to go to the status quo.
We shall see in time who is right, but polls putting Yes ahead are few and far between.
If anyone speaks down and pontificates it is yourself, malcolmg. After all you know better than the sixty percent of Scots planning to vote No, and the pollsters who report their fairly consistent position.
60% of Scots plan to vote No? Can we we get a link to this amazing poll, or are your maths as atrocious as your spelling.
60% of 5m Scots? No. 60% of 4m Scottish electorate? No. 60% of Scots intending to vote? No. 60% of all current polling? No.
'Poll of polls shows monthly move towards Yes voteNovember average (excluding undecideds):
Yes: 38% No: 62% December average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 39% No: 61% January average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 41% No: 59% February average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 42% No: 58%'
58% and 60% are almost indistinguishable in opinion polls. So are 56% and 58%!
The problem is that Osborne is tied too closely to Cameron to make him a plausible leadership candidate (unless Cameron suddenly stands down for some personal reason, which nobody expects). If Cameron does unexpectedly well next year, he'll just carry on. If he does badly, he and Osborne will share the blame.
As will Boris, if he's part of a losing side in 2015, hence, presumably, his explosive reaction to the apparently harmless suggestion that he ought to stand.
Meanwhile, the Greens have picked a candidate in Broxtowe (David Kirwan), and UKIP seem close to it (probably Bob Heeley). The Libdems are still giving the matter further thought - their former candidate in the last 3 has said he doesn't want to do it, and there aren't obvious alternatives, though one will be found.
Morris - I await with interest the bookies' odds on which Ferrari comes out top - I suspect Alonso to be the very short odds-on favourite. Personally, I'll be backing the Finn to win this particular duel. He may not be the better driver but I rate him as being the more competitive of the two. With the new engines, etc I agree it is particularly difficult at this stage to second guess which team will emerge as top dog - but I expect Ferrari to be right up there and I've taken the precaution of backing Raikkonen each way (1/5 the odds for top 3 place), which at 14/1 would still represent a half decent return.
Since our leaders were wise enough to guarantee Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity are we now at war with Russia? Or is this a far away country about which we know little? Being at war with a major nuclear power is possibly even more important than Scottish independence. In fact it might make it somewhat academic.
Most polls have a roughly sixty/forty split, discounting the undecideds. Past experience in referenda is that the undecideds tend either to not vote or to go to the status quo.
We shall see in time who is right, but polls putting Yes ahead are few and far between.
If anyone speaks down and pontificates it is yourself, malcolmg. After all you know better than the sixty percent of Scots planning to vote No, and the pollsters who report their fairly consistent position.
60% of Scots plan to vote No? Can we we get a link to this amazing poll, or are your maths as atrocious as your spelling.
60% of 5m Scots? No. 60% of 4m Scottish electorate? No. 60% of Scots intending to vote? No. 60% of all current polling? No.
'Poll of polls shows monthly move towards Yes voteNovember average (excluding undecideds):
Yes: 38% No: 62% December average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 39% No: 61% January average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 41% No: 59% February average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 42% No: 58%'
58% and 60% are almost indistinguishable in opinion polls. So are 56% and 58%!
Yep, but aggregates of polls are probably the only approximate way to get the sense of a trend, and I'm happy with small increments at this stage. Of course when the Yes campaign's gazillion pound fighting fund/long term scaremongering from Operation Dambuster starts biting(delete to taste), we may get a few lurches.
Most polls have a roughly sixty/forty split, discounting the undecideds. Past experience in referenda is that the undecideds tend either to not vote or to go to the status quo.
We shall see in time who is right, but polls putting Yes ahead are few and far between.
If anyone speaks down and pontificates it is yourself, malcolmg. After all you know better than the sixty percent of Scots planning to vote No, and the pollsters who report their fairly consistent position.
60% of Scots plan to vote No? Can we we get a link to this amazing poll, or are your maths as atrocious as your spelling.
.
'Poll of polls shows monthly move towards Yes vote November average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 38% No: 62% December average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 39% No: 61% January average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 41% No: 59% February average (excluding undecideds): Yes: 42% No: 58%'
I know its naughty to average averages......but the average of those averages is 60:40.
Were you trying to support foxinsocksuk point?
If so, well done! Case made - the polls do average 60:40
Easterross I would normally agree with you , but not in the case of Scott. I am afraid I cannot stomach people who can only denigrate Scotland, he surely has some positive for his opinion or the country. Fine to have opinions either way but not to put down Scotland 100% of the time.
And the legendary CyberNat charm offensive continues unabated...
Malcolm, just because my vision for Scotland does not include Alex "President for Life Salmond" does not mean I denigrate Scotland.
Scotland is not the SNP.The SNP is not Scotland, and does not speak for my Scotland.
I know that is religious heresy to the true believers, but truth often is.
I do not denigrate Scotland, the country of my birth and my forefathers.
I will of course continue to pour scorn on the petty Nationalists who would tear it apart to farther their own political ambitions.
On topic: I made a modest investment in Osborne as next Tory leader a few days ago. It looks to me as though he is on manoeuvres, with a series of interviews and photo-opportunities clearly designed to increase and round out his public profile. He wouldn't be doing this if he didn't think there will in due course be an opportunity to take the credit for what is increasingly being seen for what it is - an extremely impressive Chancellorship.
We shouldn't fuss too much about the exact circumstances under which Osborne might become leader. Politics is too uncertain and the greasy pole too full of surprises. All you need to know is that he is one of the prime contenders by virtue of his position and influence; when a leadership contest eventually happens, he may well be one of the candidates. The important thing to remember is that the party membership don't get a say until the final round, so to win this contest a politician first has to position himself amongst MPs, and secondly try to manoeuvre things in such a way as to be merely the more highly regarded (amongst members) of the two who make it to the final round.
Given all the uncertainties, though, I wouldn't go much below 12/1.
Sometimes George isn't very nice but he is effective.
Line of the morning (if I have managed to edit it on this damned iphone) and very true as the SNP found out.
Glad to have stopped your mourning Avery, I like to take a break from pb bubble now and again and have used the extra spare time on my investments. I have been fortunate to buy KAZ and TRP at exactly the right time although slightly concerned that events in Ukraine might have an effect on KAZ next week.
I did look in occassionally and saw you fooling BenM with your Maxwell style accounting.
I on the other hand know something about accounts and that government borrowing has been per calendar year:
2011 £118bn 2012 £120bn 2013 £110bn
as five minutes perusal at the ONS website will show.
I would expect government borrowing to fall below £100bn during calendar year 2014 but with the collorary that household borrowing will show a large increase.
And please do not deny that the government is trying to raise house prices, Osborne saw nothing wrong with that when Labour were in government so he's going to see nothing wrong with it now.
On borrowing
There is no point using the ONS figures on borrowing when it is clear that the government is taking no notice of them and is fitting their spending plans to net cash requirement figures (i.e. real borrowing).
I would even go further and claim Osborne is using the ONS figures and the media's misperception of the "deficit" as a screen behind which he can talk up the short term need for austerity up while cashing in behind the scenes.
On house prices
In mid 2012 it looked as if house prices were about to crash. I agree that rebuilding confidence in the housing market became a government priority and that Help to Buy (and other credit easing measures targetted at the housing market) had a wider aim than simply to support first time buyers.
The problem any government faces is that bank balance sheets are only robust on the back of stable or growing house prices. The financial sector's stability is dependent upon a stable housing market and its value increases in proportion with house values.
This ruled out the policy option of deliberately deflating the UK housing market or allowing prices to fall at continental rates. If George had done that we would now be in deep recession following the government having to finance a second round of bank bailouts.
Given the absence of housing price deflation as an option George and the BoE seem to be done an excellent job of averting a second crash and restoring confidence in the housing market without creating a credit bubble.
There is a difference between house prices rising in nominal but not real terms without being fuelled by a credit bubble, and, the credit splurged Brownian housing boom and bust in the early noughties.
I do not denigrate Scotland, the country of my birth and my forefathers.
Feckin hell, yet another ethnic nationalist! Who apart from you should give a toss where you or your forefathers were born? I'll take the opinion of the Polish mechanic who's chosen to make his life here over some expat bleating about his forefathers any day.
I do not denigrate Scotland, the country of my birth and my forefathers.
Feckin hell, yet another ethnic nationalist! Who apart from you should give a toss where you or your forefathers were born? I'll take the opinion of the Polish mechanic who's chosen to make his life here over some expat bleating about his forefathers any day.
@SocialInSeattle: Film star Sean Connery urges Scots to leave UK: Film star Sean Connery is urging fellow Scots to vote for inde... http://t.co/r3jDkbiqMf
I do not denigrate Scotland, the country of my birth and my forefathers.
Feckin hell, yet another ethnic nationalist! Who apart from you should give a toss where you or your forefathers were born? I'll take the opinion of the Polish mechanic who's chosen to make his life here over some expat bleating about his forefathers any day.
That's Mr Dickson told!
Cor, an almost instantaneous echo! Don't remember Stuart bleating about the land of his birth and forefathers.
@SocialInSeattle: Film star Sean Connery urges Scots to leave UK: Film star Sean Connery is urging fellow Scots to vote for inde... http://t.co/r3jDkbiqMf
Morris: "Odd that Magnussen and Raikkonen have identical odds."
Not strictly the case - those nice people at Betdaq currently have Magnussen at a stand-out price of 23 (or 21/1 net in real money). If McLaren really have sorted themselves out (big if that one), then this could prove to be a very tasty trading bet.
I cannot see the Ukranian military taking on the Russians in an organised way. They are too integrated with them, and are largely dependent on them for supplies.
I can see leakage of soldiers and light equipment to the Bandera-ites, but these are only strong in the areas already under control of the new parliament, I cannot see these taking back Crimea and the Donbass, or even the Odessa Oblast.
I can see a standoff developing with a few skirmishes, before new elections, and possibly a more federal Ukranian state as a precursor to formal seperation.
I do not think that the West Ukraine will get a lot of support from the EU, The Right Sector are worse than the Hungarian Jobbik, and this part of the country has more in common with the economy of africa, with incomes to match. It makes Romania look wealthy.
Galicia was a reasonably prosperous place when part of Austria, but it has fallen a long way behind the rest of europe.
I know its naughty to average averages......but the average of those averages is 60:40.
No, just stupid in the context of taking data points over a 4 month period, as is using the term '60% of Scots'.
Not nearly as stupid as thinking 'visual evidence' is more accurate than polling data though, is it?
Ooh, you are touchy, harbouring a grudge over what someone said to you on the internet is...risible.
I didn't say 'visual evidence' is more accurate than polling data, just a LOT better* than your weedy anecdotes about seeing 4 No campaigners on your street or your 'contacts' at Project Fear.
Comments
Do you think the government will reconsider the wisdom of shutting down Eggborough and Ferrybridge ?
Do we really want to be over reliant on the largesse of Putin ?
That assumes we get continual growth, something which governments have a habit of assuming. Unfortunately recessions always occur at some point.
And the growth we're seeing is yet agin concentrated in wealth consumption not wealth creation - all that talk of rebalancing the economy now having been forgotten.
The economic cycle used to go as follows:
1) Wealth creation and wealth consumption high
2) Wealth creation falls in a recession
3) Wealth consumption falls in austerity
4) Wealth creation rises in recovery
5) Wealth consumption rises in boom
The present 'recovery' has largely skiped steps (3) and (4).
On the subject of productivity while you are correct that it has been a long term problem for Britain the ONS stats show that it has become much worse during the last decade and this has happened at a time when we have ever more competitors around the world.
:muppet-watch:
Quite interesting, her comments on culture vs economics - I wonder how many Scots fall into that camp?
You then get supposed intelligent people like Fox pontificating from a totally ignorant viewpoint because he read it in some London rag. His unconscious bias cannot be kept in check. He has to speak down to people thinking as a pillar of the establishment that he understands that these pesky natives should be jolly glad him and his chums are looking after them.
"I'm not interested in the economics and the politics of it, it's the culture of it that really would make me very happy if we could become independent."
I suspect though, that you are implying that the 60%ish of the electorate to the right of Labour are all Cameroons, in which case you need more enlightening than I can supply.
PS your question is bollocks, we are all Scots and everybody who votes is entitled to vote YES or NO. I am of the opinion that YES people have hope and ambition , NO are just insecure people who lack hope and ambition. However good luck to all of them and we will get the country we vote for.
Young woman, in her early 30’s I think. Economist/accountant. Educated in Germany, working in UK.
Although Mrs JackW had something of a confrontation in Harrods food hall with a Russian "lady" and her burly "friend" over the quant British custom of polite queueing.
There was only ever going to be one winner. Centuries of Scottish noble breeding instils a natural aura that few can withstand.
There are and will be some interesting indicators today regarding the Ukrainian military and also Russian military moves in the east of the country. Also some of the key actors are being revealed.
Note, there are Russian security service and military elements in other parts of the Ukraine not just Crimea. No one really seems to have mentioned it, it is small scale, but they were sighted yesterday.
Apart from the increased US 6th fleet presence sitting and heading towards the Straits of Bosphorus no point talking about the West response yet as there hasn't been an overt or covert physical one, yet.
Will hopefully post more on this later.
Latvian... careful now, it only needs someone to mention homophobes and Scrapheap's prediction will surely come true!
Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
•Hillary Clinton 67% {71%} [68%] (58%) {60%} [62%] (44%)
•Joe Biden 12% {12%} [21%] (17%) {18%} [14%] (13%)
•Elizabeth Warren 5% {5%} [2%] (3%) {3%} [4%]
•Mark Warner 3% {2%} [2%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (1%)
•Andrew Cuomo 2% {1%} [2%] (6%) {3%} [4%] (7%)
•Cory Booker 1% {1%} (3%)
•Kirsten Gillibrand 0% {2%} [0%]
•Martin O’Malley 0% {1%} [0%] (0%) {0%} [1%]
•Brian Schweitzer 0% {0%} [0%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%)
•Someone else/Not sure 10% {5%} [3%] (13%) {14%} [9%] (21%)
Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
•Joe Biden 40% {51%} [58%] (40%) {36%} [28%]
•Elizabeth Warren 13% {16%} [7%] (9%) {8%} [10%]
•Andrew Cuomo 8% {9%} [13%] (14%) {14%} [14%]
•Martin O’Malley 5% {2%} [0%] (4%) {2%} [0%]
•Cory Booker 2% {6%}
•Kirsten Gillibrand 2% {2%} [6%]
•Mark Warner 2% {1%} [2%] (1%) {3%} [1%]
•Brian Schweitzer 1% {0%} [1%] (1%) {4%} [2%]
•Someone else/Not sure 28% {13%} [11%] (28%) {34%} [36%]
If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for President in 2016, who would you most like to see as the Democratic nominee?
•Elizabeth Warren 21% {20%} [17%] (13%) {11%} [13%]
•Andrew Cuomo 11% {18%} [26%] (30%) {20%} [17%]
•Cory Booker 8% {12%}
•Martin O’Malley 6% {4%} [8%] (3%) {2%} [3%]
•Kirsten Gillibrand 3% {7%} [5%]
•Brian Schweitzer 2% {3%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [4%]
•Mark Warner 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {6%} [1%]
•Someone else/Not sure 47% {33%} [37%] (46%) {53%} [47%]
•Mike Huckabee 17% (16%) {15%} [17%] (16%)
•Rand Paul 14% [18%] (15%) {5%} [11%] (9%)
•Jeb Bush 13% [14%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (10%)
•Chris Christie 10% [16%] (12%) {12%} [16%] (15%)
•Ted Cruz 10% [10%]
•Paul Ryan 9% [15%] (10%) {12%} [6%] (5%)
•Scott Walker 7%
•Bobby Jindal 7% [2%] (3%)
•Marco Rubio 3% [11%] (16%) {12%} [10%] (7%)
•Someone else/Not sure 11% [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (10%)
General Election
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
•Mike Huckabee (R) 42%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (50%)
•Jeb Bush (R) 41% (36%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (48%)
•Rand Paul (R) 42% (37%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (43%)
•Chris Christie (R) 39% (36%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {44%} (47%)
•Chris Christie (R) 41% {43%} (42%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {52%} [52%]
•Rand Paul (R) 38% {40%} [37%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {51%} [53%]
•Rick Santorum (R) 37% {38%} [36%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {52%}
•Jeb Bush (R) 36% {36%}
•Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {54%}
•Ted Cruz (R) 34% {36%}
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-26383185
Swiss productions tend to be 'questionable'. Most successful companies* I have worked with use Arial....
* Neevah-evah workeded in da meejia innit....
One thing I agree with is that Scotland will get what it votes for. I fear that will be independence. Before you start accusing me of being anti-Scottish, just remember I know and can name my ancestors who fought at Bannockburn including The Bruce and equally those who signed the Declaration of Arbroath. Can you?
If Cameron wins or leads the largest party again (either in a minority government or another Coalition) then Osborne would be the 'heir apparent' and Boris yesterday's news once his mayoral term ends in 2016
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/3/1_Paul_Craig_Roberts_-_World_Is_Now_On_The_Edge_Of_Nuclear_War.html
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/02/27/honey-i-shrunk-the-country/
Of course, the culture vs economics arguments are not mutually exclusive. A sound economy, competent public administration, a flourishing culture, and popular democracy. Those concepts are deeply intertwined with each other.
England/Wales/NI should keep the name "United Kingdom: +60
Indy Scot should keep the £: -15
Indy Scot should pay its share of UK debt: +69
Indy Scot should apply to join EU vs auto-membership: +55
Indy Scot full ownership of North Sea oil: -12
Or just have a 2d map? Or is it 1d?!
A flat map rather than a spherical
This trick was also exposed in the tv show the west wing
http://youtu.be/n8zBC2dvERM
Though judging by your posts on Osborne this morning it seems you have learned little whilst away.
George is not borrowing £100 bn a year. Even when measured by the fantasy constructs of the ONS and OBR.
House prices have fallen in real terms since 2007 and all key affordability ratios have improved.
There is no artificial house price boom stoked by excessive credit.
The Help to Buy scheme is aimed at, and succeeding in achieving, increased home ownership (or more accurately it is at this stage stemming its decline) by easing deposit raising constraints on first time buyers.
Today is Oscars day and there is no sight or sound of him.
Has he become a contented Tory and emigrated to Villeneuve-sur-Mer to live a contented retirement on his lifetime's earnings?
They spout that Faslane could be turned over to the Chinese or Russians; how stupid is that? A few rust-buckets brim-filled with toxic warheads would show 'us Engerlisch' how to respect them...?
Look at the Indian Naval Service: At least their Admiral had some decency and resigned. Scotland should become 'nae mah' than a shadow of the Oirish Republic and thank God for the English....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26119778
He should return immediately!
The very fact that he WANTS the top job must make this a value bet - where btw those nice people at William Hill are offering best odds of 16/1.
I'm on!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10670875/Scottish-independence-is-opportunity-not-to-be-missed-says-Sean-Connery.html
(1): http://www.cartography.org.uk/default.asp?contentID=749
(2): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_England
'No interview with McDougall would be complete without mention of "Project Fear", the in-house joke that got out - via the Sunday Herald - and came back to bite the campaign.
An ironic name for Better Together among its own staff, it was seized on by the Yes side as the perfect summation of the Unionist campaign.
He no longer denies the phrase came from Better Together, and tries to laugh it off as trivia, but he's obviously uncomfortable.
Is he still kicking himself?
"Not particularly, no. Look, these things, people get very excited about them, but are they really going to influence people's views in terms of how they vote? I don't think so."
Was it his personal coinage? "No."
Has he stopped using it? "I don't think we're going to get into this."
Did Alistair Darling not pick up the phone and say, "What the hell was that about?"
There is a weary pause. "I think we've said everything we've got to say."
http://tinyurl.com/pmjd5sc
This post has no sober purpose but to agree with your analysis: <i>Wee-timmy</i> should also return.Ahhh...; Catharsis....
If anyone speaks down and pontificates it is yourself, malcolmg. After all you know better than the sixty percent of Scots planning to vote No, and the pollsters who report their fairly consistent position.
(1): http://www.cartography.org.uk/default.asp?contentID=749
(2): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_England
Oh, I don't know - we seemingly need to get into fractality. The Scottish coast is going to be on a higher level of fractal dimensionality than the English coast, on average, thanks to pretty much universal glaciation, sealochs/firths, raised beaches and so on, and even the voes/wicks of the Old Red Sandstone terrain, so you have to add that dimensionality to your linear measure ...
Odd that Magnussen and Raikkonen have identical odds.
And since when did left-wingers support the right for countries to invade their neighbours because of ethnic ties? Would it have been ok for Albania to invade Kosovo? Was it ok for Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait?
I've been shocked by the remarks of the left on here in recent days. What we have is the most blatant illegal invasion of a neighbouring country, and yet a number of posters are defending it using the most contorted of reasons that don't stand up to a moment's scrutiny. It's not even like back in the 1980s when there was some sort of ideological kinship with the communist USSR: Putin's is a reactionary, nationalist regime backed up by the Orthodox church. It just must be that these people hate the West so much that they are taking an "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" mentality, even when it may result in the collapse of an entire nation thats struggling towards democracy.
We shouldn't fuss too much about the exact circumstances under which Osborne might become leader. Politics is too uncertain and the greasy pole too full of surprises. All you need to know is that he is one of the prime contenders by virtue of his position and influence; when a leadership contest eventually happens, he may well be one of the candidates. The important thing to remember is that the party membership don't get a say until the final round, so to win this contest a politician first has to position himself amongst MPs, and secondly try to manoeuvre things in such a way as to be merely the more highly regarded (amongst members) of the two who make it to the final round.
Given all the uncertainties, though, I wouldn't go much below 12/1.
I am not sure there is much to set apart Boris, David and George. They are all rich, out-of-touch, public school, Oxford, Buller boys.
My only wish is that at least one of them could be a bit more like Putin.
At least then we wouldn't have to wait until September to get the Scottish referendum result.
There is always a time and place for decisive politics.
The Ukranian flagship has raised the Russian flag and is sailing home:
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/
And in the Crimea, Ukranian forces have dispersed and resigned.
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-military-russia-resign-437/
Both according to Russian sources, of course...
Will the Conscripts turn up? and if so for which side.
The substantial minority of ethnic Russians, and of Russian speaking Ukranians may not be keen to fight alongside the Right Sector, who have just abolished their language as an official language of Ukraine, and may not want to recieve orders in Ukranian.
We shall see in time who is right, but polls putting Yes ahead are few and far between.
The George and Boris scrap is not directly about leadership ambitions, although I accept this is a subtext. It is more about George asserting his alpha-male role and bringing Boris into line in support of the Conservatives 2015 re-election campaign.
George knows you can't be disloyal and subsequently win a Tory leadership campaign so he is applying the pressure on Boris to commit.
Boris no doubt resents being bullied in this way but I suspect the message has been received. Sometimes George isn't very nice but he is effective.
If Boris did announce that he was seeking a HoC seat in 2015, the press would have announced it as a leadership challenge to Cameron. Now George has intervened it is more likely to be portrayed as loyal support for Cameron and a public show of team spirit.
The great Mandelbrots' first mathematical paper on fractals was called "How Long Is the Coast of Britain? Statistical Self-Similarity and Fractional Dimension"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_Long_Is_the_Coast_of_Britain?_Statistical_Self-Similarity_and_Fractional_Dimension
And yes, the more detailed you go, the longer it gets until, in theory, at infinite detail you have infinite length. That is why the OS usually uses the (I think) high-tide mark. But again, it depends on the scale of the map used. That's why it's best to use figures for all nations derived from the same organisation that has used the same criteria.
Having walked the coastlines of mainland England, Scotland and Wales, I make it as 6,266.5 walker-miles in length. ;-)
You don't need to - he's currently 16/1 with Hills!
http://www.turkishpress.com/news/393234/
Maths is fun.
I did look in occassionally and saw you fooling BenM with your Maxwell style accounting.
I on the other hand know something about accounts and that government borrowing has been per calendar year:
2011 £118bn
2012 £120bn
2013 £110bn
as five minutes perusal at the ONS website will show.
I would expect government borrowing to fall below £100bn during calendar year 2014 but with the collorary that household borrowing will show a large increase.
And please do not deny that the government is trying to raise house prices, Osborne saw nothing wrong with that when Labour were in government so he's going to see nothing wrong with it now.
60% of 4m Scottish electorate? No.
60% of Scots intending to vote? No.
60% of all current polling? No.
'Poll of polls shows monthly move towards Yes voteNovember average (excluding undecideds):
Yes: 38%
No: 62%
December average (excluding undecideds):
Yes: 39%
No: 61%
January average (excluding undecideds):
Yes: 41%
No: 59%
February average (excluding undecideds):
Yes: 42%
No: 58%'
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=uk&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/03/2/7016948/
The Russian military experts are in no doubt:
Dr. Leonid Reshetnikov, the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Research and a leading Russian political analyst, [speaking about the Ukrainian Government's announcement of a military draft] told Itar-Tass .
“That’s a rather demonstrative action and an attempt to scare Russia and, in the first place, the sections of Ukrainian population that continue speaking against the fascizoids who have seized power in Kiev,” he said.
The prospects for drafting the needed number of men are very dim “because it’s extremely difficult to do a sizable mobilization today,” Dr. Reshetnikov said. “Scarcely anyone will rush to the drafting stations in the eastern and southern regions of the country and those willing to report for the call-up in the central and western regions won’t be many either.”
“I think the process of shirking mobilization will be a massive and active one at the same time,” he said.
“Except one or two units, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are rather weak now” and heavily disoriented in the political sense. It is running the risks of demoralization if it fails to assimilate the newcomers quickly,” Dr. Reshetnikov said.
“That’s why I expect this mobilization will be a purely formal action, provided it takes place at all,” he said.
What a wonderful new word: "fascizoid". SeanT would be proud of that one.
As will Boris, if he's part of a losing side in 2015, hence, presumably, his explosive reaction to the apparently harmless suggestion that he ought to stand.
Meanwhile, the Greens have picked a candidate in Broxtowe (David Kirwan), and UKIP seem close to it (probably Bob Heeley). The Libdems are still giving the matter further thought - their former candidate in the last 3 has said he doesn't want to do it, and there aren't obvious alternatives, though one will be found.
With the new engines, etc I agree it is particularly difficult at this stage to second guess which team will emerge as top dog - but I expect Ferrari to be right up there and I've taken the precaution of backing Raikkonen each way (1/5 the odds for top 3 place), which at 14/1 would still represent a half decent return.
Were you trying to support foxinsocksuk point?
If so, well done! Case made - the polls do average 60:40
Malcolm, just because my vision for Scotland does not include Alex "President for Life Salmond" does not mean I denigrate Scotland.
Scotland is not the SNP.The SNP is not Scotland, and does not speak for my Scotland.
I know that is religious heresy to the true believers, but truth often is.
I do not denigrate Scotland, the country of my birth and my forefathers.
I will of course continue to pour scorn on the petty Nationalists who would tear it apart to farther their own political ambitions.
Glad to have stopped your mourning Avery, I like to take a break from pb bubble now and again and have used the extra spare time on my investments. I have been fortunate to buy KAZ and TRP at exactly the right time although slightly concerned that events in Ukraine might have an effect on KAZ next week.
I did look in occassionally and saw you fooling BenM with your Maxwell style accounting.
I on the other hand know something about accounts and that government borrowing has been per calendar year:
2011 £118bn
2012 £120bn
2013 £110bn
as five minutes perusal at the ONS website will show.
I would expect government borrowing to fall below £100bn during calendar year 2014 but with the collorary that household borrowing will show a large increase.
And please do not deny that the government is trying to raise house prices, Osborne saw nothing wrong with that when Labour were in government so he's going to see nothing wrong with it now.
On borrowing
There is no point using the ONS figures on borrowing when it is clear that the government is taking no notice of them and is fitting their spending plans to net cash requirement figures (i.e. real borrowing).
I would even go further and claim Osborne is using the ONS figures and the media's misperception of the "deficit" as a screen behind which he can talk up the short term need for austerity up while cashing in behind the scenes.
On house prices
In mid 2012 it looked as if house prices were about to crash. I agree that rebuilding confidence in the housing market became a government priority and that Help to Buy (and other credit easing measures targetted at the housing market) had a wider aim than simply to support first time buyers.
The problem any government faces is that bank balance sheets are only robust on the back of stable or growing house prices. The financial sector's stability is dependent upon a stable housing market and its value increases in proportion with house values.
This ruled out the policy option of deliberately deflating the UK housing market or allowing prices to fall at continental rates. If George had done that we would now be in deep recession following the government having to finance a second round of bank bailouts.
Given the absence of housing price deflation as an option George and the BoE seem to be done an excellent job of averting a second crash and restoring confidence in the housing market without creating a credit bubble.
There is a difference between house prices rising in nominal but not real terms without being fuelled by a credit bubble, and, the credit splurged Brownian housing boom and bust in the early noughties.
@SocialInSeattle: Film star Sean Connery urges Scots to leave UK: Film star Sean Connery is urging fellow Scots to vote for inde... http://t.co/r3jDkbiqMf
Don't remember Stuart bleating about the land of his birth and forefathers.
Not strictly the case - those nice people at Betdaq currently have Magnussen at a stand-out price of 23 (or 21/1 net in real money).
If McLaren really have sorted themselves out (big if that one), then this could prove to be a very tasty trading bet.
I cannot see the Ukranian military taking on the Russians in an organised way. They are too integrated with them, and are largely dependent on them for supplies.
I can see leakage of soldiers and light equipment to the Bandera-ites, but these are only strong in the areas already under control of the new parliament, I cannot see these taking back Crimea and the Donbass, or even the Odessa Oblast.
I can see a standoff developing with a few skirmishes, before new elections, and possibly a more federal Ukranian state as a precursor to formal seperation.
I do not think that the West Ukraine will get a lot of support from the EU, The Right Sector are worse than the Hungarian Jobbik, and this part of the country has more in common with the economy of africa, with incomes to match. It makes Romania look wealthy.
Galicia was a reasonably prosperous place when part of Austria, but it has fallen a long way behind the rest of europe.
I didn't say 'visual evidence' is more accurate than polling data, just a LOT better* than your weedy anecdotes about seeing 4 No campaigners on your street or your 'contacts' at Project Fear.
*Correction, a whole SH!TLOAD better.