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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reconsidering the case for George Osborne as next Tory leader
Until now I’ve always discounted George Osborne as Cameron’s successor. He generally polls badly and has nothing of the charisma or presence of a Boris or a Dave.
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George Osborne will never be Prime Minister
After the years of Brown at the treasury, that's quite a welcome relief.
Where Osborne looks plausible is as an in-office successor to Cameron. The person who takes over while still in government doesn't have to be particularly charismatic. John Major, Al Gore, George H W Bush, Gordon Brown - they're all insider technocrats. Osborne can build up a machine while still in office - the Chancellor spot is a great place to reward friends and smite rivals - but he needs to be in government when the succession comes.
That makes Osborne a very strong contender if Cameron hangs on to power, which makes 15/1 sound pretty good, except that if it pays out it probably won't be for at least 5 years...
However, he stands a much better chance if David Cameron leaves vaguely of his own free will than if Mr Cameron is defenestrated. The two are too closely linked for George Osborne to be a change candidate.
He would be an excellent party chairman and would draw huge crowds to fundraisers on the rubber chicken circuit in the provinces.
If Boris has any sense he should stick to being London mayor and media personality. I am not sure why he is so offended by being asked to stand as an MP, but it does whiff of an ego battle more than anything else.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/17/george-osborne-approach-scotland-currency-union
... is going to be problematic for Osborne after 19 September if the result is Yes.
If it is a No then both Cameron and Osborne are going to be smelling of roses. They have both taken huge risks during the IndyRef campaign, and a No would be an immense personal boost for both of them.
Well, I doubt it, and therefore your statement is factually inaccurate. ;-)
As for his operation being identical to Gordon Brown? How? The Labour Party was riven between Blairites, and Brownites for over ten years, a situation that was only resolved by a purge of the former. I see no real indication of Osborne purposefully stabbing Cameron in the back, as the Brownite thugs repeatedly did. And they were thugs, and Labour MPs sickeningly crowned the chief thug as PM.
The Conservatives have a split on Europe, but it would be hard to put a cigarette paper between Osborne and Cameron on that issue.
(As a counter factual aside: no Perot, no Clinton 1, 2, 3, or 4. Possibly no George W either. )
I still think Jeb's boy is the one to watch.
Cybernats are always saying that those south of the border do not understand Scottish politics, but the converse is even more true.
The response to a yes vote in England would be: You have made your choice; now go forth and multiply.
Interesting thought upthread though; will a NO vote in Scotland mean that Cameron is the man who “saved the Union”? I don’t think the results of the referenda in Canada has ever had a discernible effect on the position of the Federal Premier, though.
Although I’m sure someone here knows better!
However, I'd just point out that John Major was about the 10th annointed successor to Maggie Thatcher. The other 9 all blew up before the ever-moving finish line was ever reached. Eg. anybody remember this bloke?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Moore,_Baron_Moore_of_Lower_Marsh
Nope? Thought not. Well, he was once the next prime minister of the United Kingdom.
The only people who could claim that accolade would be the wise people of the Scottish electorate.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielknowles/100144229/george-osbornes-aim-be-like-neville-chamberlain/
Utter Bollocks, there as as many rich Tories as there are champagne Socialists. The difference is that champagne Socialists like Miliband like to preach and tell us how it should be whilst not being affected in any way by the misery they force on others. The coffee saga is only the beginning of the nightmare Labour would enact
If I want a free cup of Coffee at Waitrose, MIliband and his cronies can F off, Its none of their ffing business.
How many of the rich Labour donors did well out of supporting Labour one wonders.
F1: Mercedes delayed. Their gearbox seems a bit fragile.
Comrade Root, under the wise helmsmanship of Chairman Miliband, the People's Communal Market of Goods will supply you with all your coffee needs! Do not succumb to the vile temptations of the capitalist pigdogs of Waitrose! The so-called 'free' coffee is merely there to lure you into bourgeois decadence.
BBC Wales's Tomos Livingstone reports that Aberavon shortlist is
Parmjit Dhanda (former Gloucester MP)
Gavin Freeguard (former SpAd to Harriet)
Mark Fisher (UNISON officer Neath/Port Talbot Branch Local Government; Neath town councillor)
Stephen Kinnock http://www.stephenkinnock.co.uk/
Jeremy Miles (solicitor from Swansea, stood in Beaconsfield in 2010)
Suzanne Paddison (local Cllr)
Sarah Woodall (from Cambridge)
A very long shortlist. I think Miles was the one with the highest number of male nominations from ward branches (7 out of 16 wards).
- The "fence-sitting period" is well and truly over, declares Blair McDougall. http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/no-boss-unionist-parties-cant-agree-on-more-powers.23568841
There is more chance of Boris as leader than Osborne.
Btw, most 'Cybernats' know enough about politics south of the border to be able to spell the chancellor's name correctly.
Where is Charlie Kennedy for example? Or Margaret Curran? Or Jim Murphy?
I'm beginning to wonder if a lot of key Unionist players are going to just sit on the sidelines and watch where this is going before jumping.
I've been picturing Putin decisively moving little flags on a map and his military bods standing round looking sheepish cos all their tanks are at the dry cleaners.
You've provoked this occasional poster here with that comment. Though he fancies his chances, Osborne would win little support from grassroots and therefore has no chance.
The core Unionist problem is that deep down they feel hurt. But instead of dealing with their inner turmoil like well-adjusted adults, they lash out.
A political, rather than economic, Chancellor building an Emperor's New Clothes economy on rising house prices, off balance sheet financing and people spending money the country doesn't have.
Someone who is all tactics and no strategy.
But whereas Brown looked the part as the 'Iron Chancellor', 'Son of the Manse', man of gravitas etc Osborne looks like a ToryBoy who has never grown up.
Now as to Osborne becoming Conservative leader, assuming Conservative MPs don't reject outright the idea of repeating Labour's error with Brown there are two possiblities:
1) The Conservatives lose in 2015. In which case Osborne as master strategist and in charge of the economy will get the blame.
2) The Conservatives win in 2015. In which case Osborne will have his reputation ruined when economic reality arrives shortly afterwards.
Osborne is only a good bet if you think Britain can continually spend over £100bn more than it earns each and every year and that being a high cost country with stagnant productivity is irrelevant in a globalised world economy.
Latest poll has opposition to SIndy keeping the £ 46:31 - no wonder Eck thinks the rUK electorate shouldn't be allowed to vote on it!
Worse news on the EU - should have to apply to join: 67:12
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/01/english-welsh-majority-against-scots-independence
The exit polls in 1992 showed Perot taking votes pretty much equally from Bush and Clinton. And, to be honest, if you pick up less than 40% of the vote with all the resources of the Presidency behind you and off the back of winning a war, you can't really blame a "spoiler"... the blame lies far closer to home.
MacDonald/Baldwin/Chamberlain/Churchill does however give a sequence of more than one successive ex-Chancellor becoming PM, as does Campbell Bannerman/Asquith/Lloyd George/Bonar Law/Baldwin.
PS , most of us know what is happening in the rest of the UK, they only know what is happening inside the M25.
Yes, that is really going to win friends and influence people
I wonder why several teams have had gearbox problems during the test? It'd be nice to know where the ERS systems take / add energy into the powertrain, and how much the 'boxes have had to change from last year. Or it might be that the 'boxes haven't changed internally but they've had to repackage them.
The only scenario in which I can see him becoming next Con leader is if the Conservatives win the next election outright and he then seeks to build his own support base in time for a 2018/19 handover (Cameron would have been leader for some 13 years or so by then). That, however is a long time to tie money up for and introduces any number of uncertainties.
In any other situation, he's either discredited by being associated too closely with the Cameron regime - which if there's a leadership election, we have to assume would have suffered failure of some sort - or is starting from too far back.
How I would interpret the (second-hand) Boris-Osborne reports is that it's more part of a 'stop Boris' campaign than a 'vote George' one.
It seems to be a leftist wet-dream, someone they'd want to become PM just so they can attack them easily.
However I've found it difficult to persuade Scottish LibDems that the route to the wonders of yellow peril heaven may be found through Auchentennah .... it's a mystery ?!?
I am not particularly Unionist either! I dislike the Yes campaign for its mendacious "it will be all right, Salmond has a cunning plan" style. But If the Scottish people are wise enough to see through Salmonds bluster they will vote no. The Yes campaign should have gone for real independence and taken the "It will be difficult at first, but in the long term Scotland will be a better place" line.
rUK politics will be very different after a Yes vote, but largely unchanged by No. I did observe yesterday about the Ukranian situation that revolutions rarely produce good governments, but failed ones often bring about concessions and progress (either that or a bloodbath). I think much the same about the Indy ref.
Incidently my money is on yes at 4:1
I wonder if Williams might be a surprisingly good team. Ferrari also appear to be somewhat under the radar, which is a bit odd considering their drivers.
This is fundamentally different from their traditional strategy of encouraging increasing home OWNERSHIP.
At heart the Conservatives have traditionally had a problem of being seen as the party of the 'rich'. They countered this with a succession of lower middle class made good leaders - Heath, Thatcher, Major - and emphasising aspiration and self-responsibility. But they have stumbled on a situation where their leadership is based on inherited wealth and are applying policies which increase inequality in a world where inequality is already increasing. All the while whilst exuding a sense of entitlement.
Now it may be that rising house prices help keep the over 50s voting Conservative in 2015 but the long term effect may be to permanently disaffect potential supporters among the under 30s.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-declares-war-ukraine-and-us-or-nato-wont-do-much
They want to "look after us" in the same way the mafia "looks after" opponents in the movies.
I for one am looking forward to him taking the stage. If he takes the stage.
He is one of very few Unionists who is still respected and liked by broad sections of the Scottish public.
1) Mercedes
2) Williams
3) Ferrari
4) McLaren
5) Force India
Mercedes being top is hardly surprising, or Ferrari third, but Williams and FI are. especially as before last season I thought FI would not see it through to 2014 as a team ...
Very interesting, if you can find a copy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26405082
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/now-katie-morag-well-her-creator-backs-indy-yes-vote.1393750590
If the Ukrainians want to overthrow a democratically elected government,then Russia has the right to protect ethnic Russians in my view.
I'm afraid that Unionists are judged by their frequent uncharitable actions rather than any occasionally charitable words.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/andrew-wilson-actions-speak-louder-than-words-1-3325036
A much larger movement than unionism is the "let's all laugh at Eck" tendency which is legitimate and beneficial if it helps to clarify in any way at all what the Scots are voting for.
Does Putin have the "right" to protect ethnic Russians and occupy other east European states? :
Latvia - 27% ethnic Russian
Estonia - 26%
Lithuania - 6%
Belarus - 8%
Moldova - 6%
Both are viewed as London centric with little interest outside it and frankly Boris has insulted too much of the rest of the country at some time or another to be accepted.
I would expect David Cameron's successor who will be elected as leader circa 2020 (barring DC having an accident) will be a current junior/middle ranking minister who gets to shine in his post 2015 cabinet.