Jesus, Mary & Joseph, and the wee donkey – politicalbetting.com

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Jesus, Mary & Joseph, and the wee donkey – politicalbetting.com

Exclusive: Senior Conservative MP William Wragg has admitted his involvement in a ‘honeytrap’ sexting scandal targeting a minster and fellow MPs.The Times approached Wragg after speaking to victims who believed he was involved.Wragg told me he was “so sorry” for providing…

Read the full story here

BatteryCorrectHorse

First! Never happened before

ydoethur

Subtle reference?

I was expecting something about Wragg's small ass.

LongDongSilver was quite good though. Did he hang out there a lot?

williamglenn

Sunak does have a tendency to lose his Wragg.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

ydoethur

williamglenn said:

Sunak does have a tendency to lose his Wragg.

Somebody give Wragg a rag to cover his Willie.

Carnyx

ydoethur said:

Subtle reference?

I was expecting something about Wragg's small ass.

Donkeys aren't famous for that. They're famous for something else. Which tabloid newspapers love. Really love. What can it be?

*remembers*

Ah yes, it's BAAAAAD for LoTos to buy fields to put donkeys in.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

Subtle reference?

I was expecting something about Wragg's small ass.

LongDongSilver was quite good though. Did he hang out there a lot?

I am very subtle compared to the people on Grindr, that was my benchmark.

My legendary modesty is also evident in the postscript.

Mexicanpete

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

First! Never happened before

I am asking for VAR.

ydoethur

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Subtle reference?

I was expecting something about Wragg's small ass.

Donkeys aren't famous for that. They're famous for something else. Which tabloid newspapers love. Really love. What can it be?

*remembers*

Ah yes, it's BAAAAAD for LoTos to buy fields to put donkeys in.

Especially if you buy breeding pairs.

They cry foal over that.

Malmesbury

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Subtle reference?

I was expecting something about Wragg's small ass.

Donkeys aren't famous for that. They're famous for something else. Which tabloid newspapers love. Really love. What can it be?

*remembers*

Ah yes, it's BAAAAAD for LoTos to buy fields to put donkeys in.

Especially if you buy breeding pairs.

They cry foal over that.

I thought that was giraffes?

TheScreamingEagles

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

First! Never happened before

I am asking for VAR.

I miss being first.

ydoethur

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Subtle reference?

I was expecting something about Wragg's small ass.

Donkeys aren't famous for that. They're famous for something else. Which tabloid newspapers love. Really love. What can it be?

*remembers*

Ah yes, it's BAAAAAD for LoTos to buy fields to put donkeys in.

Especially if you buy breeding pairs.

They cry foal over that.

I thought that was giraffes?

Nah. Giraffes are a good investment. Significant neck benefit to the purchaser.

Donkeys, you just end up assing about.

Alanbrooke

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

ToryJim

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

First! Never happened before

I am asking for VAR.

I miss being first.

In some circles coming first is frowned upon.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

ydoethur

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

First! Never happened before

I am asking for VAR.

I miss being first.

In some circles coming first is frowned upon.

Coming first in Lady Chatterley was considered unfair.

TheScreamingEagles

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

First! Never happened before

I am asking for VAR.

I miss being first.

In some circles coming first is frowned upon.

I've read that in a few Grindr profiles.

Alanbrooke

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

Which coalition is that ? They have progressively pissed off of most sets of voters.

TheScreamingEagles

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

ToryJim

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

Which coalition is that ? They have progressively pissed off of most sets of voters.

The coalition of the willing.

SandyRentool

Nobody has every sent me a photograph of their private parts.

Have I lived as sheltered life?

ydoethur

SandyRentool said:

Nobody has every sent me a photograph of their private parts.

Have I lived as sheltered life?

A cop out instead of a cock out.

Alanbrooke

ToryJim said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

Which coalition is that ? They have progressively pissed off of most sets of voters.

The coalition of the willing.

Ah, The Few

TheScreamingEagles

SandyRentool said:

Nobody has every sent me a photograph of their private parts.

Have I lived as sheltered life?

Yes.

ydoethur

Alanbrooke said:

ToryJim said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

Which coalition is that ? They have progressively pissed off of most sets of voters.

The coalition of the willing.

Ah, The Few

Never in the whole field of human endeavour have so many been buggered about so much by so few.

With apologies to the Allied forces in Crete.

Carnyx

SandyRentool said:

Nobody has every sent me a photograph of their private parts.

Have I lived as sheltered life?

Nah, we're too old and with proper IT security. Be more likely to get a pic of a Class 20 or whatever. Whether that is more exciting at one's age is another matter which I won't go into.

bigjohnowls

3 Poor By Election results for Labour last night

One that was a nailed on Gain was lost and the other 2 no real swing to Lab

Why do we think that is?

Local factors?

Mexicanpete

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

ToryJim said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

Which coalition is that ? They have progressively pissed off of most sets of voters.

The coalition of the willing.

Ah, The Few

Never in the whole field of human endeavour have so many been buggered about so much by so few.

With apologies to the Allied forces in Crete.

Allied forces in Singapore wave hello.

As an aside I've got an upcoming thread that discusses the Battle of Crete and how people can make different decisions from the same event.

Yes, I am talking about the use of paratroopers.

Anabobazina

Wragg and Boner Man

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

ToryJim said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

Which coalition is that ? They have progressively pissed off of most sets of voters.

The coalition of the willing.

Ah, The Few

Never in the whole field of human endeavour have so many been buggered about so much by so few.

With apologies to the Allied forces in Crete.

Allied forces in Singapore wave hello.

As an aside I've got an upcoming thread that discusses the Battle of Crete and how people can make different decisions from the same event.

Yes, I am talking about the use of paratroopers.

Umbrella thread?

kinabalu

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Do you not think they can score about that in a GE?

BatteryCorrectHorse

40 odd percent seems about right where Labour will fall IMHO.

Chris

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

OnlyLivingBoy

Carnyx said:

SandyRentool said:

Nobody has every sent me a photograph of their private parts.

Have I lived as sheltered life?

Nah, we're too old and with proper IT security. Be more likely to get a pic of a Class 20 or whatever. Whether that is more exciting at one's age is another matter which I won't go into.

Yeah I have to say I've lived a very sheltered life in this area. I've never even watched pornography let alone sent or received any rude pictures. I can't say I really see the appeal. I don't think I'd get too excited about a shot of an English Electric Type 1, but a Type 5 is a different matter altogether!

SandyRentool

Carnyx said:

SandyRentool said:

Nobody has every sent me a photograph of their private parts.

Have I lived as sheltered life?

Nah, we're too old and with proper IT security. Be more likely to get a pic of a Class 20 or whatever. Whether that is more exciting at one's age is another matter which I won't go into.

A Class 20 is the sort of Chopper I'm more interested in seeing anyway!

kinabalu

Crossover! Big Fat Rancid Orange no longer fav for WH24!

TheScreamingEagles

kinabalu said:

Crossover! Big Fat Rancid Orange no longer fav for WH24!

***Legendary Modesty Klaxon***

TheScreamingEagles

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Mexicanpete

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Do you not think they can score about that in a GE?

It's cats living with dogs territory if they do. I still worry about 1992. Imagine the disappointment.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

If only other things had been covered.

kinabalu

TheScreamingEagles said:

kinabalu said:

Crossover! Big Fat Rancid Orange no longer fav for WH24!

***Legendary Modesty Klaxon***

And me. Drip drip drip. People waking up. They're not that far gone. America won't do it. Not a cat's chance. He's toast, he's toast!

kinabalu

Mexicanpete said:

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Do you not think they can score about that in a GE?

It's cats living with dogs territory if they do. I still worry about 1992. Imagine the disappointment.

I try not to. If Labour don't win and Trump does that will be me and politics done.

Mexicanpete

kinabalu said:

Crossover! Big Fat Rancid Orange no longer fav for WH24!

Although he does think he is against Obama by recent Maga events.

Alanbrooke

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Do you not think they can score about that in a GE?

It's cats living with dogs territory if they do. I still worry about 1992. Imagine the disappointment.

I try not to. If Labour don't win and Trump does that will be me and politics done.

You realise you are challenging the Fates.

viewcode

FPT

Selebian said:

DavidL said:

Interesting 15 year study from the Netherlands which finds that gender discontentedness is common in early adolescence but in very large part disappears with age (the cohort who have been followed since 11 are now 26).

The discontent seems to be closely linked to concepts of self worth and mental health generally with a slightly increased propensity amongst those who are not heterosexual.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/

What it appears to me that this piece of substantial research indicates, once again, is that giving adolescents who have such anxieties puberty blockers and hormone treatment is neither necessary nor desirable. My view, rather than that of the authors, is that such interventions are far more likely to do harm than good for problems that have a very high propensity to resolve over time without them. It concerns me greatly that in Scotland there is still rigorous denial of this reality and a desire to use such troubled children as pawns in a game which seems designed to show that trans is more prevalent than it actually is.

Interesting. There are some other studies with similar findings.

The main limitation I see (from a quick skim - and they don't seem to discuss it) is that they don't appear to have any data on treatment for gender dysphoria, so they don't know whether gender dysphoria is resolving by itself or in response to treatment (psychological, puberty blockers, x-sex hormones). Worth noting that we also can't do that with any certainty in the UK (well, England at least - not certain for other nations) using already-collected data as the GIDS and adult clinics data are not readily available for research and there are legal barriers to linkage if someone has gained a gender recognition certificate.

ETA: On the main message, it certainly seems like there is a group that experiences temporary gender dysphoria that does resolve (it may in those cases be a mask for other, different, underlying issues - not fitting in, mental health and gender seeming like the problem and solution). But then there is another group with persistent (or 'real', if you like) gender dysphoria and that group seems to benefit from the interventions. The trouble is that ideally you need to correctly discriminate those groups before puberty, to put the second group on the blockers and then the x-sex hormones (and likely, eventually, surgery) and to put the first group, if needed, on appropriate treatments for the real problem (and not blockers or x-sex hormones). But how do you tell which troubled young people are in which group?

@Selebian, @DavidL

Sources

• The study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/
  
• The Daily Mail article: https://archive.ph/G1rnV
  
• The activist rebuttal: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/fact-check-no-a-new-study-does-not
  

(I am tempted to do AI summaries of all three, but I'll leave you to make up your own minds... )

I will go to my grave saying this: you need to know three things about a datum to understand it: absolute values, relative values, and threshold. Crudely, how big is it, how big is it compared to others, how big is big enough. In this study it refers to "gender non-contentedness", but the authors believe it to not meet the threshold for "gender dysphoria", so it's not strictly applicable: see man-flu vs proper flu for a comparator.

With the regards to the treatment for gender dysphoria (if it meets the disease paradigm at all - I have thoughts, see previous posts), we need to know how to diagnose, how to treat, how to assess failure and success. The second is hotly debated and occasionally mentioned on PB, the first and the third rarely. I would humbly point out that the first and third are very important.

Mexicanpete

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Do you not think they can score about that in a GE?

It's cats living with dogs territory if they do. I still worry about 1992. Imagine the disappointment.

I try not to. If Labour don't win and Trump does that will be me and politics done.

It's OK the World will be done shortly after.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

Broken, sleazy Tories and LibDems on the slide!

Carnyx

Somewhat startling assessment:

'The same WhatsApp numbers were also used to target multiple victims over several months, in another sign that this may not be a high-tech operation. This has led to speculation that it could be a rogue political insider who enjoyed gathering compromising material on their colleagues.

Catfishing – where someone is convinced they are talking to a potential love interest under false pretences – is not illegal in the UK. Nor is convincing someone to willingly share naked photos under false pretences. But an individual who publishes those pictures at a later date could be convicted of breaking revenge porn laws, while police are assessing potential for blackmail offences.'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/05/who-is-behind-westminster-whatsapp-honeytrap-stings-mp-william-wragg

Sunil_Prasannan

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Subtle reference?

I was expecting something about Wragg's small ass.

Donkeys aren't famous for that. They're famous for something else. Which tabloid newspapers love. Really love. What can it be?

*remembers*

Ah yes, it's BAAAAAD for LoTos to buy fields to put donkeys in.

Especially if you buy breeding pairs.

They cry foal over that.

I thought that was giraffes?

"Those giraffes you sold me. They won't mate. They just walk around all day, eating, and not mating. You sold me... queer giraffes. I want my money back!"

Chris

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Unfortunately you forgot to mention the betting implications in your header.

Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.

Mexicanpete

TheScreamingEagles said:

kinabalu said:

Crossover! Big Fat Rancid Orange no longer fav for WH24!

***Legendary Modesty Klaxon***

Does this mean fewer positive polls for Trump posted on here by @williamglenn ? I do hope so.

noneoftheabove

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

Broken, sleazy Tories and LibDems on the slide!

LDs starting to suffer the inevitable as more comes out about the "Daveygate" Post Office scandal.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

Which coalition is that ? They have progressively pissed off of most sets of voters.

It would have to be a new coalition of voters. This current leadership couldn't do it though.

Heathener

Good evening all.

I’m slightly wary about holiday polling but 5 x consecutive polls this week have 20%+ Labour leads, which is the first time this has happened since September last year.

Polling all took place before the latest tory sleaze scandal.

A number of people, myself included, are of the opinion that the tories have nowhere near bottomed out yet and are on a downward trajectory which may not cease this side of the election even if Sunak dilly-dallies until January.

Things can only get worser …

Foxy

viewcode said:

FPT

Selebian said:

DavidL said:

Interesting 15 year study from the Netherlands which finds that gender discontentedness is common in early adolescence but in very large part disappears with age (the cohort who have been followed since 11 are now 26).

The discontent seems to be closely linked to concepts of self worth and mental health generally with a slightly increased propensity amongst those who are not heterosexual.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/

What it appears to me that this piece of substantial research indicates, once again, is that giving adolescents who have such anxieties puberty blockers and hormone treatment is neither necessary nor desirable. My view, rather than that of the authors, is that such interventions are far more likely to do harm than good for problems that have a very high propensity to resolve over time without them. It concerns me greatly that in Scotland there is still rigorous denial of this reality and a desire to use such troubled children as pawns in a game which seems designed to show that trans is more prevalent than it actually is.

Interesting. There are some other studies with similar findings.

The main limitation I see (from a quick skim - and they don't seem to discuss it) is that they don't appear to have any data on treatment for gender dysphoria, so they don't know whether gender dysphoria is resolving by itself or in response to treatment (psychological, puberty blockers, x-sex hormones). Worth noting that we also can't do that with any certainty in the UK (well, England at least - not certain for other nations) using already-collected data as the GIDS and adult clinics data are not readily available for research and there are legal barriers to linkage if someone has gained a gender recognition certificate.

ETA: On the main message, it certainly seems like there is a group that experiences temporary gender dysphoria that does resolve (it may in those cases be a mask for other, different, underlying issues - not fitting in, mental health and gender seeming like the problem and solution). But then there is another group with persistent (or 'real', if you like) gender dysphoria and that group seems to benefit from the interventions. The trouble is that ideally you need to correctly discriminate those groups before puberty, to put the second group on the blockers and then the x-sex hormones (and likely, eventually, surgery) and to put the first group, if needed, on appropriate treatments for the real problem (and not blockers or x-sex hormones). But how do you tell which troubled young people are in which group?

@Selebian, @DavidL

Sources

• The study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/
  
• The Daily Mail article: https://archive.ph/G1rnV
  
• The activist rebuttal: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/fact-check-no-a-new-study-does-not
  

(I am tempted to do AI summaries of all three, but I'll leave you to make up your own minds... )

I will go to my grave saying this: you need to know three things about a datum to understand it: absolute values, relative values, and threshold. Crudely, how big is it, how big is it compared to others, how big is big enough. In this study it refers to "gender non-contentedness", but the authors believe it to not meet the threshold for "gender dysphoria", so it's not strictly applicable: see man-flu vs proper flu for a comparator.

With the regards to the treatment for gender dysphoria (if it meets the disease paradigm at all - I have thoughts, see previous posts), we need to know how to diagnose, how to treat, how to assess failure and success. The second is hotly debated and occasionally mentioned on PB, the first and the third rarely. I would humbly point out that the first and third are very important.

I could only read the abstract, and there agree that "gender non-content" is not the same as gender dysphoria.

The other striking thing is that while many of these did grow out of it, some went the other way and at age 26, 4% felt "gender not-content". Four % is a lot of the population.

viewcode

noneoftheabove said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

Broken, sleazy Tories and LibDems on the slide!

LDs starting to suffer the inevitable as more comes out about the "Daveygate" Post Office scandal.

That would assume that the press mention the LDs. This would seem to be a flaw in your plan.

(speaking seriously, this should be a perfect storm for the LDs, with an unscary Lab leader and disenchanted Con voters they should be hoovering up the protest votes. They aren't. It's Liberdammerung, if you'll excuse the DayTodayism. )

viewcode

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Unfortunately you forgot to mention the betting implications in your header.

Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.

The @Cleitophon Criterion
"A PB header should have a betting implication"

It's met less often than you'd think.

LostPassword

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Do you not think they can score about that in a GE?

It's cats living with dogs territory if they do. I still worry about 1992. Imagine the disappointment.

I try not to. If Labour don't win and Trump does that will be me and politics done.

I'd hardly be confident about the outcome of a political vote on the basis of the betting odds.

You seem to be trying very hard to convince yourself. I do hope you're right, but I have very grave doubts and fears.

Daveyboy1961

noneoftheabove said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

Broken, sleazy Tories and LibDems on the slide!

LDs starting to suffer the inevitable as more comes out about the "Daveygate" Post Office scandal.

I think it's more likely lack of coverage. As it stands ReFuk is etting more coverage and they don't have any bona fide MPs as yet.

HYUFD

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

TheScreamingEagles

viewcode said:

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Unfortunately you forgot to mention the betting implications in your header.

Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.

The @Cleitophon Criterion
"A PB header should have a betting implication"

It's met less often than you'd think.

Sadly there are no constituency markets or seat spreads available at the moment which is bloody annoying in an election year.

Same applies to electoral college vote spreads.

bigjohnowls

Methinks Mike Katz should lawyer up or withdraw his tweet from yesterday

https://twitter.com/childofeternity/status/1776030324150911046/photo/1

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

Once they reach crossover, they could be propelled into the high 20s and start eating into the Labour lead.

Heathener

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

I don’t think they will, no. But I equally don’t think those votes will simply transfer back to the Conservatives at the GE.

The Conservative brand is by now so toxic that it’s done for.

Foxy

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

I don't, and looking at polling before other General Elections generally we see Referendum/UKIP/BXP fade in the last months as the campaign proper starts.

I think single figures % myself and no seats.

Alanbrooke

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

Depends on turnout.

viewcode

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Unfortunately you forgot to mention the betting implications in your header.

Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.

The @Cleitophon Criterion
"A PB header should have a betting implication"

It's met less often than you'd think.

Sadly there are no constituency markets or seat spreads available at the moment which is bloody annoying in an election year.

Same applies to electoral college vote spreads.

I've had a look at betfairEx and Oddschecker: you're right...

Although you can still get 1/8 on Biden being the nominee and 1/16 on the election being won by a man. Both appear to be value, if you discount the chance of him dying.

noneoftheabove

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Unfortunately you forgot to mention the betting implications in your header.

Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.

The @Cleitophon Criterion
"A PB header should have a betting implication"

It's met less often than you'd think.

Sadly there are no constituency markets or seat spreads available at the moment which is bloody annoying in an election year.

Same applies to electoral college vote spreads.

I've had a look at betfairEx and Oddschecker: you're right...

Although you can still get 1/8 on Biden being the nominee and 1/16 on the election being won by a man. Both appear to be value, if you discount the chance of him dying.

Are you sure Trump is human?

OldKingCole

noneoftheabove said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

Broken, sleazy Tories and LibDems on the slide!

LDs starting to suffer the inevitable as more comes out about the "Daveygate" Post Office scandal.

Why, what’s come out now?
More likely either a rogue poll, or the lack of coverage.

bigjohnowls

Heathener said:

Good evening all.

I’m slightly wary about holiday polling but 5 x consecutive polls this week have 20%+ Labour leads, which is the first time this has happened since September last year.

Polling all took place before the latest tory sleaze scandal.

A number of people, myself included, are of the opinion that the tories have nowhere near bottomed out yet and are on a downward trajectory which may not cease this side of the election even if Sunak dilly-dallies until January.

Things can only get worser …

I mean seriously. 2 were by the same pollster one of those last 5 came out on exactly the same day as 2 other polls that were both below 20%

I hear the IDF have some vacancies if your interested

GIN1138

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

I'd take 10% off REFORM and give most of it back to CON. You can also probably take 4% off GREEN and give it back to Lab

A result like Con 30% Lab 45% Lib-Dem 12% REF 6% GREEN 3% seems most likely to me in the end?

That comes out quite close to 1997 I think?

Malmesbury

ToryJim said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Alanbrooke said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Foxy said:

I have said before that the Tories can only win again when they revert to the pro-EU party that they were for the half century to 2016.

It will probably take them over a decade to realise it of course.

A Tory Party offering action on housing, tuition fees and supporting common sense things like public ownership of the railways would do very well with younger voters.

But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.

The Tories problem is they can say what they want but few will believe them. If they wanted to do something on housing why arent they doing it ?

Because their electoral coalition doesn't need it?

Which coalition is that ? They have progressively pissed off of most sets of voters.

The coalition of the willing.

It’s more that any attempt at real change faces being nibbled to death by ducks, as Londo Molari put it.

Not one big mob with a pitchfork, but a succession of people/groups saying not this, not that.

To push through that, politically, requires an expert politician to build the case for it within their party, vote by vote. Then push it through the permanent structures of government.

This requires commitment, determination and skill.

viewcode

noneoftheabove said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Unfortunately you forgot to mention the betting implications in your header.

Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.

The @Cleitophon Criterion
"A PB header should have a betting implication"

It's met less often than you'd think.

Sadly there are no constituency markets or seat spreads available at the moment which is bloody annoying in an election year.

Same applies to electoral college vote spreads.

I've had a look at betfairEx and Oddschecker: you're right...

Although you can still get 1/8 on Biden being the nominee and 1/16 on the election being won by a man. Both appear to be value, if you discount the chance of him dying.

Are you sure Trump is human?

Well he's made of sweat, meat and fats, that's for sure. I'm less sure as to genus, and can't definitively rule out orang-utan, but I'll go for hom.sap. as an initial guess.

Heathener

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

I'd take 10% off REFORM and give most of it back to CON. You can also probably take 4% off GREEN and give is back to Lab

A result like Con 30% Lab 45% Lib-Dem 12% REF 6% GREEN 3% seems most likely to me in the end?

As you’ve put a question mark, I’ll respond only to say that I don’t think the Conservatives are going to reach 30%. Equally I’m not convinced Labour will poll as high as 45%.

In 1997 the Conservatives managed 30.7%. Yes, they were very unpopular but it was more about a desire for change and the economy was in pretty darned rude health.

Tony Blair’s wave of euphoria ‘only’ led to 43.2% and Keir Starmer doesn’t have the same charisma.

I’d probably have Labour above 40% but the real story will be just how poorly the Conservatives fare. In our lifetimes, that’s every single person on this forum - even Big John of Sheffield - there has never been a governing party more unpopular or ridiculed by the voting public.

They may surpass 25% but I’m not risking my money on it.

Just my take, of course

bigjohnowls

Heathener said:

Good evening all.

I’m slightly wary about holiday polling but 5 x consecutive polls this week have 20%+ Labour leads, which is the first time this has happened since September last year.

Polling all took place before the latest tory sleaze scandal.

A number of people, myself included, are of the opinion that the tories have nowhere near bottomed out yet and are on a downward trajectory which may not cease this side of the election even if Sunak dilly-dallies until January.

Things can only get worser …

Wishful thinking

Your last 5 polls

We Think lab lead now 21 now compared to 23 on 24th March 24
You Gov 23 compared to 25 on 23rd March
Techne 21 compared to 21 on 2ist March
R&W 24 compared to 26 on 18th March

In excited Centrist voice we have seen a decline in the 5 latest Polls compared to those pollster in the week before the holiday is it a trend! Of course not but that is equally pathetic to what you posted

Plus the Pollsters that havent reported since easter are 4 of the 5 which show lower leads ie

More in Common
Opinium
Deltapoll
Survation

Heathener

You’re a bit desperate John tbh. In a kind of myopic way, especially your dislike of SKS which comes across as slightly unhinged.

Meant kindly. Just something to consider.

Have a nice evening all.

xx

kle4

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

I don't, and looking at polling before other General Elections generally we see Referendum/UKIP/BXP fade in the last months as the campaign proper starts.

I think single figures % myself and no seats.

I'm not sure what their actual ambitions are - or rather whether the leadership's ambitions might be different than those of people who are being swept up in grand visions of beating the Tories. I suspect the leadership are content to help add to Tory woes, since that itself will add to the pressure for any Tory revitalisation attempt to be as close to Reform as possible anyway.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

Once they reach crossover, they could be propelled into the high 20s and start eating into the Labour lead.

If they reach crossover, under FPTP that just ensures a Labour landslide and a split right as in Canada post 1993 ensured re elected Liberal governments until the Canadian Tories and the successor of their Reform Party merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada. Which finally won power in 2006 under Harper.

You can afford a centre right and populist party both getting significant votes under PR, as happens in many European nations, Israel and New Zealand but not under FPTP if you want a right of centre government

BatteryCorrectHorse

Heathener said:

You’re a bit desperate John tbh. In a kind of myopic way, especially your dislike of SKS which comes across as slightly unhinged.

Meant kindly. Just something to consider.

Have a nice evening all.

xx

I do wish you'd post more often, your posts are some of the best.

Foxy

Heathener said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

I'd take 10% off REFORM and give most of it back to CON. You can also probably take 4% off GREEN and give is back to Lab

A result like Con 30% Lab 45% Lib-Dem 12% REF 6% GREEN 3% seems most likely to me in the end?

As you’ve put a question mark, I’ll respond only to say that I don’t think the Conservatives are going to reach 30%. Equally I’m not convinced Labour will poll as high as 45%.

In 1997 the Conservatives managed 30.7%. Yes, they were very unpopular but it was more about a desire for change and the economy was in pretty darned rude health.

Tony Blair’s wave of euphoria ‘only’ led to 43.2% and Keir Starmer doesn’t have the same charisma.

I’d probably have Labour above 40% but the real story will be just how poorly the Conservatives fare. In our lifetimes, that’s every single person on this forum - even Big John of Sheffield - there has never been a governing party more unpopular or ridiculed by the voting public.

They may surpass 25% but I’m not risking my money on it.

Just my take, of course

Just a bit of fun but I make that:

Lab 485
Con75
LD 49
SNP 18
Green 2
Ref nil

Not quite the landslide of 1931, but we do need to go back to that for a bigger majority.

Foxy

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

I don't, and looking at polling before other General Elections generally we see Referendum/UKIP/BXP fade in the last months as the campaign proper starts.

I think single figures % myself and no seats.

I'm not sure what their actual ambitions are - or rather whether the leadership's ambitions might be different than those of people who are being swept up in grand visions of beating the Tories. I suspect the leadership are content to help add to Tory woes, since that itself will add to the pressure for any Tory revitalisation attempt to be as close to Reform as possible anyway.

Yes, the Referendum, UKIP and Brexit Party all had a single issue to unite and motivate them, but post Brexit there is no similar policy.

NickPalmer

bigjohnowls said:

Heathener said:

Good evening all.

I’m slightly wary about holiday polling but 5 x consecutive polls this week have 20%+ Labour leads, which is the first time this has happened since September last year.

Polling all took place before the latest tory sleaze scandal.

A number of people, myself included, are of the opinion that the tories have nowhere near bottomed out yet and are on a downward trajectory which may not cease this side of the election even if Sunak dilly-dallies until January.

Things can only get worser …

I mean seriously. 2 were by the same pollster one of those last 5 came out on exactly the same day as 2 other polls that were both below 20%

I hear the IDF have some vacancies if your interested

The last 4 were sampling between 3 and 8 days later than the earlier two (which showed 19% leads). And the earlier two have both had more recent polls above 20. I get that you disapprove of Starmer but you can't seriously dispute that polling is very consistently showing a 20-point lead.

williamglenn

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

I don't, and looking at polling before other General Elections generally we see Referendum/UKIP/BXP fade in the last months as the campaign proper starts.

I think single figures % myself and no seats.

I'm not sure what their actual ambitions are - or rather whether the leadership's ambitions might be different than those of people who are being swept up in grand visions of beating the Tories. I suspect the leadership are content to help add to Tory woes, since that itself will add to the pressure for any Tory revitalisation attempt to be as close to Reform as possible anyway.

Yes, the Referendum, UKIP and Brexit Party all had a single issue to unite and motivate them, but post Brexit there is no similar policy.

Destroying the Conservative party is now the cause that unites liberals and 'reformers'.

anothernick

Heathener said:

Good evening all.

I’m slightly wary about holiday polling but 5 x consecutive polls this week have 20%+ Labour leads, which is the first time this has happened since September last year.

Polling all took place before the latest tory sleaze scandal.

A number of people, myself included, are of the opinion that the tories have nowhere near bottomed out yet and are on a downward trajectory which may not cease this side of the election even if Sunak dilly-dallies until January.

Things can only get worser …

Yougov particular noteworthy as it suggests their last poll with a 4% drop in the Labour share and a lead of 19% was an outlier.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Hey @NickPalmer are you planning to stand as a candidate again for Parliament?

bigjohnowls

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Heathener said:

You’re a bit desperate John tbh. In a kind of myopic way, especially your dislike of SKS which comes across as slightly unhinged.

Meant kindly. Just something to consider.

Have a nice evening all.

xx

I do wish you'd post more often, your posts are some of the best.

He literally posted "the last 5 polls" when over that exact timescale there were 7 but amazingly the 2 with less than 20% lead were cut off even though they came out on the same day as his 5th

Anyway Centrist overestimating how great the GE2024 results is going to be really funny

Green votes arent coming back to Lab SKS maximum is 40% same as worst Lab leader ever in 2017 IMO

But lets see who is right I forecast

LAB 38/39
Con 32/33
Green 6/7
Others 25 ish

Cleitophon

The last five polls' labour leads: 21, 24, 23, 23, 21 .... OUCH.... adding the two MRP polls. That is catastrophic for the right.... 500 labour seats (out of 650) for the techne poll for instance... and the expresserati still say reform is on a path to total victory 🤣🤣🤣

I have been saying all along that the tories need a GE yesterday - waiting will only get worse. These numbers seem to agree. The need to pull the cord and just face the music or it will be a Canada 93 situation by autumn.

OldKingCole

viewcode said:

noneoftheabove said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Unfortunately you forgot to mention the betting implications in your header.

Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.

The @Cleitophon Criterion
"A PB header should have a betting implication"

It's met less often than you'd think.

Sadly there are no constituency markets or seat spreads available at the moment which is bloody annoying in an election year.

Same applies to electoral college vote spreads.

I've had a look at betfairEx and Oddschecker: you're right...

Although you can still get 1/8 on Biden being the nominee and 1/16 on the election being won by a man. Both appear to be value, if you discount the chance of him dying.

Are you sure Trump is human?

Well he's made of sweat, meat and fats, that's for sure. I'm less sure as to genus, and can't definitively rule out orang-utan, but I'll go for hom.sap. as an initial guess.

His arms are too short for an orang-utan.

rcs1000

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

FPT

Selebian said:

DavidL said:

Interesting 15 year study from the Netherlands which finds that gender discontentedness is common in early adolescence but in very large part disappears with age (the cohort who have been followed since 11 are now 26).

The discontent seems to be closely linked to concepts of self worth and mental health generally with a slightly increased propensity amongst those who are not heterosexual.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/

What it appears to me that this piece of substantial research indicates, once again, is that giving adolescents who have such anxieties puberty blockers and hormone treatment is neither necessary nor desirable. My view, rather than that of the authors, is that such interventions are far more likely to do harm than good for problems that have a very high propensity to resolve over time without them. It concerns me greatly that in Scotland there is still rigorous denial of this reality and a desire to use such troubled children as pawns in a game which seems designed to show that trans is more prevalent than it actually is.

Interesting. There are some other studies with similar findings.

The main limitation I see (from a quick skim - and they don't seem to discuss it) is that they don't appear to have any data on treatment for gender dysphoria, so they don't know whether gender dysphoria is resolving by itself or in response to treatment (psychological, puberty blockers, x-sex hormones). Worth noting that we also can't do that with any certainty in the UK (well, England at least - not certain for other nations) using already-collected data as the GIDS and adult clinics data are not readily available for research and there are legal barriers to linkage if someone has gained a gender recognition certificate.

ETA: On the main message, it certainly seems like there is a group that experiences temporary gender dysphoria that does resolve (it may in those cases be a mask for other, different, underlying issues - not fitting in, mental health and gender seeming like the problem and solution). But then there is another group with persistent (or 'real', if you like) gender dysphoria and that group seems to benefit from the interventions. The trouble is that ideally you need to correctly discriminate those groups before puberty, to put the second group on the blockers and then the x-sex hormones (and likely, eventually, surgery) and to put the first group, if needed, on appropriate treatments for the real problem (and not blockers or x-sex hormones). But how do you tell which troubled young people are in which group?

@Selebian, @DavidL

Sources

• The study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/
  
• The Daily Mail article: https://archive.ph/G1rnV
  
• The activist rebuttal: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/fact-check-no-a-new-study-does-not
  

(I am tempted to do AI summaries of all three, but I'll leave you to make up your own minds... )

I will go to my grave saying this: you need to know three things about a datum to understand it: absolute values, relative values, and threshold. Crudely, how big is it, how big is it compared to others, how big is big enough. In this study it refers to "gender non-contentedness", but the authors believe it to not meet the threshold for "gender dysphoria", so it's not strictly applicable: see man-flu vs proper flu for a comparator.

With the regards to the treatment for gender dysphoria (if it meets the disease paradigm at all - I have thoughts, see previous posts), we need to know how to diagnose, how to treat, how to assess failure and success. The second is hotly debated and occasionally mentioned on PB, the first and the third rarely. I would humbly point out that the first and third are very important.

I could only read the abstract, and there agree that "gender non-content" is not the same as gender dysphoria.

The other striking thing is that while many of these did grow out of it, some went the other way and at age 26, 4% felt "gender not-content". Four % is a lot of the population.

That's almost LibDem 2017 vote levels.

RochdalePioneers

I get repeated approached on LinkedIn, all with the same MO. PM comes in, hi I'm getting in touch on behalf of my boss who is senior bod (sometimes of a named company, sometimes not). They are looking to expand the business into your territory and your resume (never CV) looks interesting. We'd love to get in touch and discuss the opportunity. Can we use WhatsApp?

LinkedIn - going off my feed - has almost as many cocks as Grindr. I don;'t understand how someone can fall for something so obviously fake?

"I met you at an event. Phwoar. Please show me your cock" Come on...

Foxy

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

noneoftheabove said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TSE on 4 April: "I AM NOT WRITING A THREAD ON THAT "

TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"

When I reflected on the story overnight I realised there were some betting implications so was obliged to cover the story.

Unfortunately you forgot to mention the betting implications in your header.

Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.

The @Cleitophon Criterion
"A PB header should have a betting implication"

It's met less often than you'd think.

Sadly there are no constituency markets or seat spreads available at the moment which is bloody annoying in an election year.

Same applies to electoral college vote spreads.

I've had a look at betfairEx and Oddschecker: you're right...

Although you can still get 1/8 on Biden being the nominee and 1/16 on the election being won by a man. Both appear to be value, if you discount the chance of him dying.

Are you sure Trump is human?

Well he's made of sweat, meat and fats, that's for sure. I'm less sure as to genus, and can't definitively rule out orang-utan, but I'll go for hom.sap. as an initial guess.

His arms are too short for an orang-utan.

His hands are too small too. Also Orang Utans can show empathy.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

FPT

Selebian said:

DavidL said:

Interesting 15 year study from the Netherlands which finds that gender discontentedness is common in early adolescence but in very large part disappears with age (the cohort who have been followed since 11 are now 26).

The discontent seems to be closely linked to concepts of self worth and mental health generally with a slightly increased propensity amongst those who are not heterosexual.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/

What it appears to me that this piece of substantial research indicates, once again, is that giving adolescents who have such anxieties puberty blockers and hormone treatment is neither necessary nor desirable. My view, rather than that of the authors, is that such interventions are far more likely to do harm than good for problems that have a very high propensity to resolve over time without them. It concerns me greatly that in Scotland there is still rigorous denial of this reality and a desire to use such troubled children as pawns in a game which seems designed to show that trans is more prevalent than it actually is.

Interesting. There are some other studies with similar findings.

The main limitation I see (from a quick skim - and they don't seem to discuss it) is that they don't appear to have any data on treatment for gender dysphoria, so they don't know whether gender dysphoria is resolving by itself or in response to treatment (psychological, puberty blockers, x-sex hormones). Worth noting that we also can't do that with any certainty in the UK (well, England at least - not certain for other nations) using already-collected data as the GIDS and adult clinics data are not readily available for research and there are legal barriers to linkage if someone has gained a gender recognition certificate.

ETA: On the main message, it certainly seems like there is a group that experiences temporary gender dysphoria that does resolve (it may in those cases be a mask for other, different, underlying issues - not fitting in, mental health and gender seeming like the problem and solution). But then there is another group with persistent (or 'real', if you like) gender dysphoria and that group seems to benefit from the interventions. The trouble is that ideally you need to correctly discriminate those groups before puberty, to put the second group on the blockers and then the x-sex hormones (and likely, eventually, surgery) and to put the first group, if needed, on appropriate treatments for the real problem (and not blockers or x-sex hormones). But how do you tell which troubled young people are in which group?

@Selebian, @DavidL

Sources

• The study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/
  
• The Daily Mail article: https://archive.ph/G1rnV
  
• The activist rebuttal: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/fact-check-no-a-new-study-does-not
  

(I am tempted to do AI summaries of all three, but I'll leave you to make up your own minds... )

I will go to my grave saying this: you need to know three things about a datum to understand it: absolute values, relative values, and threshold. Crudely, how big is it, how big is it compared to others, how big is big enough. In this study it refers to "gender non-contentedness", but the authors believe it to not meet the threshold for "gender dysphoria", so it's not strictly applicable: see man-flu vs proper flu for a comparator.

With the regards to the treatment for gender dysphoria (if it meets the disease paradigm at all - I have thoughts, see previous posts), we need to know how to diagnose, how to treat, how to assess failure and success. The second is hotly debated and occasionally mentioned on PB, the first and the third rarely. I would humbly point out that the first and third are very important.

I could only read the abstract, and there agree that "gender non-content" is not the same as gender dysphoria.

The other striking thing is that while many of these did grow out of it, some went the other way and at age 26, 4% felt "gender not-content". Four % is a lot of the population.

That's almost LibDem 2017 vote levels.

Was Jo Swinson suffering from power dysphoria when she self-identified as a PM in waiting?

BatteryCorrectHorse

Retired Maj Gen Yoav Har-Even described how the IDF's drone operators mistook an aid worker carrying a bag for a gunman, and then targeted one of the World Central Kitchen vehicles with a missile. The IDF then described how two people escaped that vehicle and got into a second car, which was hit by another missile from a drone."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68738452

RochdalePioneers

Foxy said:

Heathener said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Does anybody really believe Reform will get 16% in a FPTP general election? That is LDs 1997 levels and well over even UKIP 2015 levels.

Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense

I'd take 10% off REFORM and give most of it back to CON. You can also probably take 4% off GREEN and give is back to Lab

A result like Con 30% Lab 45% Lib-Dem 12% REF 6% GREEN 3% seems most likely to me in the end?

As you’ve put a question mark, I’ll respond only to say that I don’t think the Conservatives are going to reach 30%. Equally I’m not convinced Labour will poll as high as 45%.

In 1997 the Conservatives managed 30.7%. Yes, they were very unpopular but it was more about a desire for change and the economy was in pretty darned rude health.

Tony Blair’s wave of euphoria ‘only’ led to 43.2% and Keir Starmer doesn’t have the same charisma.

I’d probably have Labour above 40% but the real story will be just how poorly the Conservatives fare. In our lifetimes, that’s every single person on this forum - even Big John of Sheffield - there has never been a governing party more unpopular or ridiculed by the voting public.

They may surpass 25% but I’m not risking my money on it.

Just my take, of course

Just a bit of fun but I make that:

Lab 485
Con75
LD 49
SNP 18
Green 2
Ref nil

Not quite the landslide of 1931, but we do need to go back to that for a bigger majority.

With regards to the coming election, I think the error some (not you!) are making is caring about things like national percentages. There is absolutely no such thing as UNS any more, and you can't take any % for any party and just apply it as a blanket.

Some of the sillier wipeout forecasts do that, then again the MRP polls keep moving in that same direction - the trend towards ELE is clearly there.

Two key factors - turnout and tactical voting.
I have little doubt that turnout will be down, which will restrict the size of majorities in some seats. But "I don't need to vote, Labour will win" only works in safe seats. I don't expect that en masse.
Tactical voting will make people vote, because the mood amongst practically everyone is smash the Tories. Dreams of ReFUK voters 'coming home' are dreams - come home to what? Ex Tory voters in voting ReFUK are voting Real Tory, not Blue Labour. And the not voting > UKIP > ReFUK red wall voter? They didn't vote Tory last time - or did so once and once only. They aren't voting Tory this time.

What can change the trend towards ELE? A massive sex scandal involving DPP SKS, some nuns and a vat of Hummus? Otherwise, there is nothing the Tories can do to recover ground but endless things they are doing to lose more ground...

BatteryCorrectHorse

williamglenn said:

Was Jo Swinson suffering from power dysphoria when she self-identified as a PM in waiting?

That has to be one of the dumbest political moments of my life.

kinabalu

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SKS fans please explain.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)

Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421

This is bollocks. Reform are spectacularly high.

Do you not think they can score about that in a GE?

It's cats living with dogs territory if they do. I still worry about 1992. Imagine the disappointment.

I try not to. If Labour don't win and Trump does that will be me and politics done.

I'd hardly be confident about the outcome of a political vote on the basis of the betting odds.

You seem to be trying very hard to convince yourself. I do hope you're right, but I have very grave doubts and fears.

No, I'm genuinely confident that Trump won't win. The view predates the drift in odds, it isn't caused by it. Course confident doesn't mean certain. I give him a 25% chance and that's way too high for comfort given the disaster it would be on every level. Plus I'm short at an average 4 on the exchange so at his current price I'm still way underwater.

rottenborough

Somebody make it all stop.

BatteryCorrectHorse

rottenborough said:

Somebody make it all stop.

Is everything okay?

viewcode

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

FPT

Selebian said:

DavidL said:

Interesting 15 year study from the Netherlands which finds that gender discontentedness is common in early adolescence but in very large part disappears with age (the cohort who have been followed since 11 are now 26).

The discontent seems to be closely linked to concepts of self worth and mental health generally with a slightly increased propensity amongst those who are not heterosexual.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/

What it appears to me that this piece of substantial research indicates, once again, is that giving adolescents who have such anxieties puberty blockers and hormone treatment is neither necessary nor desirable. My view, rather than that of the authors, is that such interventions are far more likely to do harm than good for problems that have a very high propensity to resolve over time without them. It concerns me greatly that in Scotland there is still rigorous denial of this reality and a desire to use such troubled children as pawns in a game which seems designed to show that trans is more prevalent than it actually is.

Interesting. There are some other studies with similar findings.

The main limitation I see (from a quick skim - and they don't seem to discuss it) is that they don't appear to have any data on treatment for gender dysphoria, so they don't know whether gender dysphoria is resolving by itself or in response to treatment (psychological, puberty blockers, x-sex hormones). Worth noting that we also can't do that with any certainty in the UK (well, England at least - not certain for other nations) using already-collected data as the GIDS and adult clinics data are not readily available for research and there are legal barriers to linkage if someone has gained a gender recognition certificate.

ETA: On the main message, it certainly seems like there is a group that experiences temporary gender dysphoria that does resolve (it may in those cases be a mask for other, different, underlying issues - not fitting in, mental health and gender seeming like the problem and solution). But then there is another group with persistent (or 'real', if you like) gender dysphoria and that group seems to benefit from the interventions. The trouble is that ideally you need to correctly discriminate those groups before puberty, to put the second group on the blockers and then the x-sex hormones (and likely, eventually, surgery) and to put the first group, if needed, on appropriate treatments for the real problem (and not blockers or x-sex hormones). But how do you tell which troubled young people are in which group?

@Selebian, @DavidL

Sources

• The study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/
  
• The Daily Mail article: https://archive.ph/G1rnV
  
• The activist rebuttal: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/fact-check-no-a-new-study-does-not
  

(I am tempted to do AI summaries of all three, but I'll leave you to make up your own minds... )

I will go to my grave saying this: you need to know three things about a datum to understand it: absolute values, relative values, and threshold. Crudely, how big is it, how big is it compared to others, how big is big enough. In this study it refers to "gender non-contentedness", but the authors believe it to not meet the threshold for "gender dysphoria", so it's not strictly applicable: see man-flu vs proper flu for a comparator.

With the regards to the treatment for gender dysphoria (if it meets the disease paradigm at all - I have thoughts, see previous posts), we need to know how to diagnose, how to treat, how to assess failure and success. The second is hotly debated and occasionally mentioned on PB, the first and the third rarely. I would humbly point out that the first and third are very important.

I could only read the abstract, and there agree that "gender non-content" is not the same as gender dysphoria.

The other striking thing is that while many of these did grow out of it, some went the other way and at age 26, 4% felt "gender not-content". Four % is a lot of the population.

That's almost LibDem 2017 vote levels.

Was Jo Swinson suffering from power dysphoria when she self-identified as a PM in waiting?

(I'm certain you meant that satirically, but, being really pedantic, technically the answer to that is yes. Now consider why you think power dysphoria isn't a mental illness but gender dysphoria is)