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Jesus, Mary & Joseph, and the wee donkey – politicalbetting.com
Jesus, Mary & Joseph, and the wee donkey – politicalbetting.com
Exclusive: Senior Conservative MP William Wragg has admitted his involvement in a ‘honeytrap’ sexting scandal targeting a minster and fellow MPs.The Times approached Wragg after speaking to victims who believed he was involved.Wragg told me he was “so sorry” for providing…
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I was expecting something about Wragg's small ass.
LongDongSilver was quite good though. Did he hang out there a lot?
But the Tories that are left seem to actively hate the young. They will have to lose very badly and keep losing if they are to change. Labour has had go to through the same process (in reverse) since 2010.
*remembers*
Ah yes, it's BAAAAAD for LoTos to buy fields to put donkeys in.
My legendary modesty is also evident in the postscript.
They cry foal over that.
Donkeys, you just end up assing about.
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Apr)
Con: 20% (-1 from 26-27 Mar)
Lab: 43% (+3)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Lib Dem: 8% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1776197554830553421
Have I lived as sheltered life?
With apologies to the Allied forces in Crete.
One that was a nailed on Gain was lost and the other 2 no real swing to Lab
Why do we think that is?
Local factors?
As an aside I've got an upcoming thread that discusses the Battle of Crete and how people can make different decisions from the same event.
Yes, I am talking about the use of paratroopers.
TSE on 5 April: "As a regular user of the Grindr app of many years I didn’t think anything could shock me when it came to that app but the behaviour of William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove, has managed to leave me shocked and speechless. [click bait follows]"
And me. Drip drip drip. People waking up. They're not that far gone. America won't do it. Not a cat's chance. He's toast, he's toast!
Sources
- The study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38413534/
- The Daily Mail article: https://archive.ph/G1rnV
- The activist rebuttal: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/fact-check-no-a-new-study-does-not
(I am tempted to do AI summaries of all three, but I'll leave you to make up your own minds...I will go to my grave saying this: you need to know three things about a datum to understand it: absolute values, relative values, and threshold. Crudely, how big is it, how big is it compared to others, how big is big enough. In this study it refers to "gender non-contentedness", but the authors believe it to not meet the threshold for "gender dysphoria", so it's not strictly applicable: see man-flu vs proper flu for a comparator.
With the regards to the treatment for gender dysphoria (if it meets the disease paradigm at all - I have thoughts, see previous posts), we need to know how to diagnose, how to treat, how to assess failure and success. The second is hotly debated and occasionally mentioned on PB, the first and the third rarely. I would humbly point out that the first and third are very important.
'The same WhatsApp numbers were also used to target multiple victims over several months, in another sign that this may not be a high-tech operation. This has led to speculation that it could be a rogue political insider who enjoyed gathering compromising material on their colleagues.
Catfishing – where someone is convinced they are talking to a potential love interest under false pretences – is not illegal in the UK. Nor is convincing someone to willingly share naked photos under false pretences. But an individual who publishes those pictures at a later date could be convicted of breaking revenge porn laws, while police are assessing potential for blackmail offences.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/05/who-is-behind-westminster-whatsapp-honeytrap-stings-mp-william-wragg
Don't get me wrong. I think the antics of our betters are always interesting and entertaining to discuss. In this case, as he was an openly gay man, apparently single, not even planning to stand for election to Parliament again, it's interesting to speculate what he could have done that was so bad as to force him to deliver up his friends into the hands of these blackmailers and possible enemy agents.
I’m slightly wary about holiday polling but 5 x consecutive polls this week have 20%+ Labour leads, which is the first time this has happened since September last year.
Polling all took place before the latest tory sleaze scandal.
A number of people, myself included, are of the opinion that the tories have nowhere near bottomed out yet and are on a downward trajectory which may not cease this side of the election even if Sunak dilly-dallies until January.
Things can only get worser …
The other striking thing is that while many of these did grow out of it, some went the other way and at age 26, 4% felt "gender not-content". Four % is a lot of the population.
(speaking seriously, this should be a perfect storm for the LDs, with an unscary Lab leader and disenchanted Con voters they should be hoovering up the protest votes. They aren't. It's Liberdammerung, if you'll excuse the DayTodayism.
"A PB header should have a betting implication"
It's met less often than you'd think.
You seem to be trying very hard to convince yourself. I do hope you're right, but I have very grave doubts and fears.
Yes they will get some protest votes against Rishi but the Reform ramping by Godwin is becoming absurd and he and Yougov have Reform far higher than other polls, mainly at Tory expense
Same applies to electoral college vote spreads.
https://twitter.com/childofeternity/status/1776030324150911046/photo/1
The Conservative brand is by now so toxic that it’s done for.
I think single figures % myself and no seats.
Although you can still get 1/8 on Biden being the nominee and 1/16 on the election being won by a man. Both appear to be value, if you discount the chance of him dying.
More likely either a rogue poll, or the lack of coverage.
I hear the IDF have some vacancies if your interested
A result like Con 30% Lab 45% Lib-Dem 12% REF 6% GREEN 3% seems most likely to me in the end?
That comes out quite close to 1997 I think?
Not one big mob with a pitchfork, but a succession of people/groups saying not this, not that.
To push through that, politically, requires an expert politician to build the case for it within their party, vote by vote. Then push it through the permanent structures of government.
This requires commitment, determination and skill.
In 1997 the Conservatives managed 30.7%. Yes, they were very unpopular but it was more about a desire for change and the economy was in pretty darned rude health.
Tony Blair’s wave of euphoria ‘only’ led to 43.2% and Keir Starmer doesn’t have the same charisma.
I’d probably have Labour above 40% but the real story will be just how poorly the Conservatives fare. In our lifetimes, that’s every single person on this forum - even Big John of Sheffield - there has never been a governing party more unpopular or ridiculed by the voting public.
They may surpass 25% but I’m not risking my money on it.
Just my take, of course
Your last 5 polls
We Think lab lead now 21 now compared to 23 on 24th March 24
You Gov 23 compared to 25 on 23rd March
Techne 21 compared to 21 on 2ist March
R&W 24 compared to 26 on 18th March
In excited Centrist voice we have seen a decline in the 5 latest Polls compared to those pollster in the week before the holiday is it a trend! Of course not but that is equally pathetic to what you posted
Plus the Pollsters that havent reported since easter are 4 of the 5 which show lower leads ie
More in Common
Opinium
Deltapoll
Survation
Meant kindly. Just something to consider.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
You can afford a centre right and populist party both getting significant votes under PR, as happens in many European nations, Israel and New Zealand but not under FPTP if you want a right of centre government
Lab 485
Con75
LD 49
SNP 18
Green 2
Ref nil
Not quite the landslide of 1931, but we do need to go back to that for a bigger majority.
Anyway Centrist overestimating how great the GE2024 results is going to be really funny
Green votes arent coming back to Lab SKS maximum is 40% same as worst Lab leader ever in 2017 IMO
But lets see who is right I forecast
LAB 38/39
Con 32/33
Green 6/7
Others 25 ish
I have been saying all along that the tories need a GE yesterday - waiting will only get worse. These numbers seem to agree. The need to pull the cord and just face the music or it will be a Canada 93 situation by autumn.
LinkedIn - going off my feed - has almost as many cocks as Grindr. I don;'t understand how someone can fall for something so obviously fake?
"I met you at an event. Phwoar. Please show me your cock" Come on...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68738452
Some of the sillier wipeout forecasts do that, then again the MRP polls keep moving in that same direction - the trend towards ELE is clearly there.
Two key factors - turnout and tactical voting.
I have little doubt that turnout will be down, which will restrict the size of majorities in some seats. But "I don't need to vote, Labour will win" only works in safe seats. I don't expect that en masse.
Tactical voting will make people vote, because the mood amongst practically everyone is smash the Tories. Dreams of ReFUK voters 'coming home' are dreams - come home to what? Ex Tory voters in voting ReFUK are voting Real Tory, not Blue Labour. And the not voting > UKIP > ReFUK red wall voter? They didn't vote Tory last time - or did so once and once only. They aren't voting Tory this time.
What can change the trend towards ELE? A massive sex scandal involving DPP SKS, some nuns and a vat of Hummus? Otherwise, there is nothing the Tories can do to recover ground but endless things they are doing to lose more ground...