Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
There's the minor issue of what benefits do we get from rejoining and at what price ?
You noticeably pass over this.
Frictionless trade, freedom of movement, social and legal constraints that forbid corporal and capital punishment. That would be enough for me, but there are others (ironically) CAP for British farmers, Erasmus, Euratom and all those other organisations we set up and belonged to before 1973 and left in 2019.
But it's not going to happen. Any rejoin terms will be vastly inferior to those we had in 2019, so what's the point?
Best to make of what we can with Brexit. Perhaps a turd can be polished to a degree.
By the way, the EU is a far from perfect organisation, it's just leaving was far worse, and for what?
On William Wragg, I don't think the content of the messages, or the pictures, is of anything but prurient interest. The fact is that he gave out the phone numbers of colleagues he worked with, without their consent, to a third party.
If I'd done that in my job (Civil Service), regardless of any defence I put forward, I'd have been unceremoniously sacked for gross misconduct.
He has already said he won't be a candidate at the next general election. If his constituents wants a recall petition for a by election before that that is up to them
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
Neither a genuinely free market nor any other sort of libertarianism is even close to the Overton window now; nor will it be.
Take one tiny example: How many people would vote now for a banking system in which a non-wealthy retail depositor had no protection from the state against their bank becoming insolvent (currently £85K). None.
Which is an extreme position
But many would say that we need failure to mean failure.
I want Thames Water to fail, the bond holders and shareholders to get wiped out. To send a message. To encourage the others.
Agree. And I note that the describe a free market/libertarian position in a very specific instance as 'extreme'. Which confirms the suggestion that it is way outside the Overton window. A hallmark of libertarianism is 'caveat emptor'.
Incidentally, the Thames bond/share holders will, at the bottom of the indirect paper trail, include pensioners and future pensioners of modest means.
Depositor insurance is a very old, early protection against bank failures causing panics.
It should be combined with “Living Wills” for corporations and banks - go bankrupt, and the essential parts of the business should keep moving. The management, bond holders and shareholders should be the victims.
People with pension plans have the ability to see where their pension pot is invested. And very often can move it between funds…. Think of it as a tree of responsibility.
The total capitalisation of Thames Water is a tiny fraction of the money in private pension plans. Unless someone has been a twat and bet everything on zero on the Roulette, this shouldn’t be existential.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
Man, there are going to be some scales falling from eyes when Labour get in and turn out not to be magic pixies.
...I think that if the 1944 plot to kill Hitler in the Wolf's Lair had succeeded, the Allies would have still insisted on Unconditional Surrender and Allied Occupation...
FPT - my sense is Israel won't take the gloves off until all the hostages are released and Hamas are destroyed. And since the hostages are basically the only leverage Hamas still has they won't release them.
Israel is (still) very, very angry. They have little respect for the Palestinians anyway - who they probably hold collectively culpable for Hamas being ensconced in Gaza in the first place - and it blinds them to any recklessness in their actions. And they don't care because they don't think they should have been there in the first place, and now they've attacked them they will experience their full unchained wrath in all its hideous glory and any amd all consequences are entirely on them.
Unfortunately, this has now gotten so severe that it's changed my mind on the issue. Dropping targeted ordinance on aid workers on a safe route and engineering famine as a weapon of war is not ok. And I talk as someone who holds no candle whatsoever for the Palestinians or the assortment of Islamists, Marxists and socialist workers who associate with them. They've lost their sense of proportion. They've lost their friends. Yes, there is antisemitism around but that's not a free pass to rebut any and all criticism of their state policy and military actions, particularly when it comes from their friends.
Israel might not care but they need to be made to care for their own sake: when you have clear splits at the top of the Tory party, Biden dropping ultimatums and calling for a ceasefire and even Trump telling you to pack it in you know you have a problem.
I still find it difficult to believe that an aid convoy of foreign nationals would be deliberately targeted by the Israelis at the top level, precisely because of the international reaction they would know it would bring.
I’m sure there have also been a number of war crimes committed by Ukranians in the last couple of years, but it doesn’t mean their overall aims are not just or that we should stop supporting them.
War is horrible, but also something that thankfully few of us in the West have experienced in our lives. But for some people in the world, most obviously the Ukranians and Israelis at the moment, it’s an existential threat.
Of course, it might just be that the Israelis have ceased to care what anyone else thinks, and are going to make life utter Hell for Hamas-controlled areas until they surrender and hand over their hostages and weapons. We already know that the Russians and Hamas don’t care what the rest of the world thinks about their behaviour, and see local civilians as fair game in their wars despite international agreements and understandings on such things.
An attack on an aid convoy of foreign nationals is exactly what the flotilla massacre of 2010 was. Israeli armed forces murdered 10 unarmed aid workers, wounding dozens more, and the Israeli Home Front Defence Minister declared there were no innocents among the dead.
The response to this week's attack on the vehicles including from Biden will have been gamed out.
They probably want certain aid groups and shall we say those with military experience from certain foreign countries out of the way.
In this case the aid group was one the Israelis themselves had selected to cooperate with in the delivery of aid.
I think your last two paragraphs are fanciful.
FWIW, the impression I have is that once the rules of engagement have been set by the politicians, there's a substantial amount of autonomy allowed to the military on the spot. Which is not in any way to absolve the politicians of responsibility; I just think you're implying a level of control which doesn't exist
Can they get their money back from Lavender as over half the deaths are women and children so targeting Hamas operatives is either a lie or a complete failure
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
Man, there are going to be some scales falling from eyes when Labour get in and turn out not to be magic pixies.
Not so much Labou, as that the EU won’t suddenly be offering sweet deals.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
This William Wragg story looks like it’s going to explode !!
I'm just baffled why anyone would do what is alleged. Giving out private details of friends and acquaintances to a unknown third party because you think the third party can compromise you - wtf?
He had already announced himself as a stand-down at the next Election, BTW.
And sending naked photos of himself to someone, as an elected politician with risks that are obvious. Where do the parties get these people from?
Remember the post I've made many times
No one sane wants to be an MP, there are easier ways to make more money and easier ways to make the changes you wish to make...
Work for a lobbyist. Get a grant of the govt to then lobby the govt for the policy you want. You get the change you want with no accountability and you get well paid for it.
That is the next scandal. Or rather it's already happening. But we aren't paying enough attention. Yet. Unaccountable lobbyists are the overmighty union barons or over-indulged City of our time.
Utility companies wave hello.
How's this for a funny one? I'm suing A Certain Company because they repeatedly attempted to swindle me. They've just applied to dismiss the case. The only reason they give is that they do not consider it to have merit. The real reason (and I am not making this up) is as they made clear when asking me for yet another extension for their reply is they have lost the paperwork...
I hope you are taping your calls with them.
It's all been by email.
But yes, future calls will be taped.
You’re sueing them, and they’re *still* sending you emails?
This could be fun 🍿
The number of people who think that the story about the hole and digging means they should hire this to fix the problem….
Been to one of the old opencast shale pits in Germany. It's enormous. I'm not sure machines like those dig a hole so much as make the hole disappear, they dig out such a wide space.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Broadly agree- I simply don't see how this sticks when it's already unpopular and the demographics are so against it. If there were visible concrete benefits, that would be different, but there aren't. We're aleady at MOE for rejoin even if the cost is adopting the Euro.
One Archeresque twist in the tale, though. It's pretty clear that Starmer is going to do TCA with actual co-operation, his successor likely being the one to move to single customs and market union. Actual rejoin (2040ish?) being a Conservative policy- something about how, if we're following the rules, Britain should be making them...
That's if there is a recognisable Conservative party in 2040.
The EFTA/EEA route is the one, not the EU. I don't think the Euro is going to be sellable at least for this generation.
We're talking 2040ish, though, which is a Scottish generation from now and a real generation from the Brexit vote. And whilst EFTA/EEA is clearly better for citizens and businesses than what we have, it does have an element of waiting in the lobby while the actual decisions are made in the meeting room. And I can't see partisans of the "second most powerful country in the world" theory (go on, say it in the voice of Mrs Doyle from Father Ted) enjoying that.
...I think that if the 1944 plot to kill Hitler in the Wolf's Lair had succeeded, the Allies would have still insisted on Unconditional Surrender and Allied Occupation...
Weren't some of the Germans and Italians who signed and organised the surrender of Caserta treated more leniently because they did that (fairly useless) surrender?
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Only because of the past - and because UK has been shite at introducing customs. Just wait for the first full year's stats after that.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Only because of the past - and because UK has been shite at introducing customs. Just wait for the first full year's stats after that.
“The sky hasn’t fallen yet, but it will! Just you wait!”
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain whatsoever.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
This William Wragg story looks like it’s going to explode !!
I'm just baffled why anyone would do what is alleged. Giving out private details of friends and acquaintances to a unknown third party because you think the third party can compromise you - wtf?
He had already announced himself as a stand-down at the next Election, BTW.
And sending naked photos of himself to someone, as an elected politician with risks that are obvious. Where do the parties get these people from?
Remember the post I've made many times
No one sane wants to be an MP, there are easier ways to make more money and easier ways to make the changes you wish to make...
Work for a lobbyist. Get a grant of the govt to then lobby the govt for the policy you want. You get the change you want with no accountability and you get well paid for it.
That is the next scandal. Or rather it's already happening. But we aren't paying enough attention. Yet. Unaccountable lobbyists are the overmighty union barons or over-indulged City of our time.
Utility companies wave hello.
How's this for a funny one? I'm suing A Certain Company because they repeatedly attempted to swindle me. They've just applied to dismiss the case. The only reason they give is that they do not consider it to have merit. The real reason (and I am not making this up) is as they made clear when asking me for yet another extension for their reply is they have lost the paperwork...
I hope you are taping your calls with them.
It's all been by email.
But yes, future calls will be taped.
You’re sueing them, and they’re *still* sending you emails?
This could be fun 🍿
The number of people who think that the story about the hole and digging means they should hire this to fix the problem….
Been to one of the old opencast shale pits in Germany. It's enormous. I'm not sure machines like those dig a hole so much as make the hole disappear, they dig out such a wide space.
I made a very large Lego model of one of those. It cost an ****** fortune in Lego. If I get a spare month or two I might rebuild it. Although I think a transporter bridge might be next.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
If the net effect of more border friction ends up stimulating the domestic economy, would that be a bad thing? Why are our manufacturing PMIs better than France or Germany?
This William Wragg story looks like it’s going to explode !!
I'm just baffled why anyone would do what is alleged. Giving out private details of friends and acquaintances to a unknown third party because you think the third party can compromise you - wtf?
He had already announced himself as a stand-down at the next Election, BTW.
And sending naked photos of himself to someone, as an elected politician with risks that are obvious. Where do the parties get these people from?
He lives and works in central London, where there’s an Old Compton St full of gay men to find that doesn’t involve sending compromising pictures of yourself to others.
I now suspect by default, that these stories are the result of explicit targeting of individuals by foreign state actors.
Very probably.
Might get a better idea of which particular foreign power if the serving government minister, broadcaster, and chair of an APPG were all identified.
I was looking at Wragg's APPG interests. They include Antigua and Barbuda, and Thailand. Curiously both of those groups have Wragg as the vice-chair and Graham Brady as the chair...mirroring the 1922 Committee where Brady is chair and Wragg is one of the vice chairs.
Antigua is known for its shipping registry.
An interesting post, which goes beyond the obvious suspects of Russia and China - although perhaps we are looking at these larger nations using spooks in smaller nations to work their spooky ways.
I suspect that this isn’t some random guy on Grindr, but rather an elaborate setup involving a number of accounts on that service and a small number of wel-researched and high-profile targets that they set up to befriend, as in an old-fashioned honey trap from the days before the internet.
That Wragg is openly gay, rather than closeted, possibly saw him let his guard down a little on a gay dating site, whereas a closeted man with a public profile would be very worried about being ‘outed’ by blackmail and possibly more circumspect.
I do actually feel a little sorry for the guy, even though he clearly messed up. It’s not as if contact details for people can’t be found by anyone with the will to go looking.
...I think that if the 1944 plot to kill Hitler in the Wolf's Lair had succeeded, the Allies would have still insisted on Unconditional Surrender and Allied Occupation...
Weren't some of the Germans and Italians who signed and organised the surrender of Caserta treated more leniently because they did that (fairly useless) surrender?
Italians only, and I think you mean Cassabile (8th Sep 1943).
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
If the net effect of more border friction ends up stimulating the domestic economy, would that be a bad thing? Why are our manufacturing PMIs better than France or Germany?
So there is more border friction? I thought you just said there wasn't.
This William Wragg story looks like it’s going to explode !!
I'm just baffled why anyone would do what is alleged. Giving out private details of friends and acquaintances to a unknown third party because you think the third party can compromise you - wtf?
He had already announced himself as a stand-down at the next Election, BTW.
I lurk over on the reddit channel r/scams, and the amount of sextortion scams is astronomical. But the answer is always the same. You do not engage with these people, even if you think they have something compromising about you; they're entire power comes from the threat. If they actually did release whatever they said they would, then they lose power.
So block, ignore, whatever. Never answer. Never.
The rise of AI is pretty much going to make all this irrelevent anyway. If someone really wanted, they could use AI to generate pictures of anyone in compromising positions. And therefore the answer to any picture is simply, "It's fake AI generated."
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain whatsoever.
Speaking of post-imperial delusions, surely any action of the second most powerful country in the world would make Israel take notice? And isn’t British soft power the envy of the globe?
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
If the net effect of more border friction ends up stimulating the domestic economy, would that be a bad thing? Why are our manufacturing PMIs better than France or Germany?
When your narrative was anti- Brexit your arguments were robust and convincing. It doesn't seem like you have your heart in Brexit. See below.
You quote manufacturing PMI for March every day as the single indicator that Brexit is working.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
If the net effect of more border friction ends up stimulating the domestic economy, would that be a bad thing? Why are our manufacturing PMIs better than France or Germany?
So there is more border friction? I thought you just said there wasn't.
Maybe there isn’t enough. Should we have given the EU tariff-free access to our domestic market?
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Many on the left are also uninterested in international Humanitarian Law - at least where it suits them. Which is why some excuse or ignore what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Because Russia stronk, or some shit like that.
Fortunately, many on the left do criticise all such evils, wherever they occur. Many on the right do, as well - as such morality is not strictly the domain of left or right.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
If the net effect of more border friction ends up stimulating the domestic economy, would that be a bad thing? Why are our manufacturing PMIs better than France or Germany?
So there is more border friction? I thought you just said there wasn't.
Maybe there isn’t enough. Should we have given the EU tariff-free access to our domestic market?
Ah, we're back to 'WTO Terms'. That's a blast from the past!
...I think that if the 1944 plot to kill Hitler in the Wolf's Lair had succeeded, the Allies would have still insisted on Unconditional Surrender and Allied Occupation...
Weren't some of the Germans and Italians who signed and organised the surrender of Caserta treated more leniently because they did that (fairly useless) surrender?
Italians only, and I think you mean Cassabile (8th Sep 1943).
Four or five days before the end of the war in Europe. The argument *against* being that the protracted 'negotiation' for the surrender was unnecessary; a much simpler and quicker surrender could have been negotiated which would have saved many lives. Instead, the Germans and Italians involved were more interested in saving their own necks. Karl Wolf being one such example.
Over the period 2005 to 2019 covered by the scandal there were of course Labour and LD Business Secretaries, Lord Mandelson and Vince Cable as well as Tory Business Secretaries. What they knew and when, if anything
You can't really be stop at 2019 when we now have stories of compensation suppression from the Treasury and Badenoch's performance to date has been diabolical.
I think you can also ask questions of Ministers in the early Blair years wtf they were doing pulling the Fujitsu software from Government departments because it was discovered to be shite and allow the Post Office to run with it. Likewise Ministers at the tail end of the Major Government.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Are the ones interested or not interested in International Humanitarian Law the same ones as are interested in The International Convention against the Taking of Hostages.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
If the net effect of more border friction ends up stimulating the domestic economy, would that be a bad thing? Why are our manufacturing PMIs better than France or Germany?
So there is more border friction? I thought you just said there wasn't.
Maybe there isn’t enough. Should we have given the EU tariff-free access to our domestic market?
Ah, we're back to 'WTO Terms'. That's a blast from the past!
How would the Tories be polling under Esther McVey?
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Broadly agree- I simply don't see how this sticks when it's already unpopular and the demographics are so against it. If there were visible concrete benefits, that would be different, but there aren't. We're aleady at MOE for rejoin even if the cost is adopting the Euro.
One Archeresque twist in the tale, though. It's pretty clear that Starmer is going to do TCA with actual co-operation, his successor likely being the one to move to single customs and market union. Actual rejoin (2040ish?) being a Conservative policy- something about how, if we're following the rules, Britain should be making them...
That's if there is a recognisable Conservative party in 2040.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Are the ones interested or not interested in International Humanitarian Law the same ones as are interested in The International Convention against the Taking of Hostages.
Are you still justifying the Genocide?
Not aware of anyone on here supporting the taking of hostages.
Aware of plenty who defended Israel killing innocents by the thousands.
Although the numbers are dwindling and most now condemn Israels actions.
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
If the net effect of more border friction ends up stimulating the domestic economy, would that be a bad thing? Why are our manufacturing PMIs better than France or Germany?
So there is more border friction? I thought you just said there wasn't.
Maybe there isn’t enough. Should we have given the EU tariff-free access to our domestic market?
Ah, we're back to 'WTO Terms'. That's a blast from the past!
How would the Tories be polling under Esther McVey?
Last week it was Mordaunt, followed by one of Jenrick, Braverman and Badenoch, this morning the silver bullet was Patel and now you are pitching for Lady Davies?
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Many on the left are also uninterested in international Humanitarian Law - at least where it suits them. Which is why some excuse or ignore what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Because Russia stronk, or some shit like that.
Fortunately, many on the left do criticise all such evils, wherever they occur. Many on the right do, as well - as such morality is not strictly the domain of left or right.
Well I would agree with that. Particularly your last para.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
This William Wragg story looks like it’s going to explode !!
I'm just baffled why anyone would do what is alleged. Giving out private details of friends and acquaintances to a unknown third party because you think the third party can compromise you - wtf?
He had already announced himself as a stand-down at the next Election, BTW.
And sending naked photos of himself to someone, as an elected politician with risks that are obvious. Where do the parties get these people from?
He lives and works in central London, where there’s an Old Compton St full of gay men to find that doesn’t involve sending compromising pictures of yourself to others.
I now suspect by default, that these stories are the result of explicit targeting of individuals by foreign state actors.
Very probably.
Might get a better idea of which particular foreign power if the serving government minister, broadcaster, and chair of an APPG were all identified.
I was looking at Wragg's APPG interests. They include Antigua and Barbuda, and Thailand. Curiously both of those groups have Wragg as the vice-chair and Graham Brady as the chair...mirroring the 1922 Committee where Brady is chair and Wragg is one of the vice chairs.
Antigua is known for its shipping registry.
An interesting post, which goes beyond the obvious suspects of Russia and China - although perhaps we are looking at these larger nations using spooks in smaller nations to work their spooky ways.
I suspect that this isn’t some random guy on Grindr, but rather an elaborate setup involving a number of accounts on that service and a small number of wel-researched and high-profile targets that they set up to befriend, as in an old-fashioned honey trap from the days before the internet.
That Wragg is openly gay, rather than closeted, possibly saw him let his guard down a little on a gay dating site, whereas a closeted man with a public profile would be very worried about being ‘outed’ by blackmail and possibly more circumspect.
I do actually feel a little sorry for the guy, even though he clearly messed up. It’s not as if contact details for people can’t be found by anyone with the will to go looking.
Wragg's Wikipedia entry hints at another potential susect: "On 20 January 2022, Wragg accused whips of blackmail against Conservative MPs who were believed to support ousting Johnson as prime minister. He said he has heard stories of MPs being told they could face loss of public investment in their constituencies and releasing of embarrassing stories."
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Would you take the pay cut to do the job?
I wouldn’t.
No, I would be quite happy with the pay. No party would have me though. Too idiosyncratic in my views.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Are the ones interested or not interested in International Humanitarian Law the same ones as are interested in The International Convention against the Taking of Hostages.
Are you still justifying the Genocide?
Not aware of anyone on here supporting the taking of hostages.
Aware of plenty who defended Israel killing innocents by the thousands.
Although the numbers are dwindling and most now condemn Israels actions.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain whatsoever.
Speaking of post-imperial delusions, surely any action of the second most powerful country in the world would make Israel take notice? And isn’t British soft power the envy of the globe?
We could put a fairly big stone in their shoe via the F35 program. Big and Expensive has its fingers in many pies. By withdrawing consent to sales of weapons that have U.K. participation, we could effect even more
See the number of Argentine weapons deals that we have stuffed up since 1982.
The problem is that this gets noted on the international arms market. South Korea is making a killing at the moment, because they have a rep for selling for cash, no questions. As opposed to the Germans, Swiss and others who spent their time equivocating over Ukraine.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Would you take the pay cut to do the job?
I wouldn’t.
No, I would be quite happy with the pay. No party would have me though. Too idiosyncratic in my views.
I suspect the subset of people who would be happy being an MP on £200k per year, but not happy being an MP on current terms are no better suited to being MPs than the current lot.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
So where does his interest in maritime commerce in Antigua spring from? Curiouser and curiouser.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Are the ones interested or not interested in International Humanitarian Law the same ones as are interested in The International Convention against the Taking of Hostages.
Are you still justifying the Genocide?
Not aware of anyone on here supporting the taking of hostages.
Aware of plenty who defended Israel killing innocents by the thousands.
Although the numbers are dwindling and most now condemn Israels actions.
It isn't genocide. It's war.
The line between the two can be so thin it becomes nonexistent.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Would you take the pay cut to do the job?
I wouldn’t.
No, I would be quite happy with the pay. No party would have me though. Too idiosyncratic in my views.
I suspect the subset of people who would be happy being an MP on £200k per year, but not happy being an MP on current terms are no better suited to being MPs than the current lot.
If you don’t pay the rate, people will leave the profession and quality will decline.
It is certainly the case in the permanent structure of government, where they try and get software developers for £35k a year. In London.
It also works that way for doctors, I hear.
Sure, you can fill the jobs. Expecting quality by “sacrifice for public duty” is a management game.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Are the ones interested or not interested in International Humanitarian Law the same ones as are interested in The International Convention against the Taking of Hostages.
Are you still justifying the Genocide?
Not aware of anyone on here supporting the taking of hostages.
Aware of plenty who defended Israel killing innocents by the thousands.
Although the numbers are dwindling and most now condemn Israels actions.
It isn't genocide. It's war.
The line between the two can be so thin it becomes nonexistent.
The transition between two states normally happens over a small change. But, still, it is useful to draw a distinction between different categories.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
So where does his interest in maritime commerce in Antigua spring from? Curiouser and curiouser.
He enjoys the hardships of visiting the countries his political work involves?
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain whatsoever.
Speaking of post-imperial delusions, surely any action of the second most powerful country in the world would make Israel take notice? And isn’t British soft power the envy of the globe?
We could put a fairly big stone in their shoe via the F35 program. Big and Expensive has its fingers in many pies. By withdrawing consent to sales of weapons that have U.K. participation, we could effect even more
The UK has no power over F-35 sales as they are US FMS government to government deals and the UK government isn't one of the two in that deal. As if the US would EVER give the UK veto power over an F-35 deal!
They could order BAE/RR to hold deliveries of F-35 components (this might need primary legislation) but obviously wouldn't fucking dare.
The new pay deal for Consultants (a significantly better offer than the one rejected in January, and far better than the one last summer) has just been accepted by ballot of members of the BMA and HCSA. So no more Consultant strikes. I think we got the best raise of all public sector workers, albeit not as good as the triple lock.
The government now needs to engage with the Juniors and SAS grades to stop the strikes with a similar deal.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Are the ones interested or not interested in International Humanitarian Law the same ones as are interested in The International Convention against the Taking of Hostages.
Are you still justifying the Genocide?
Not aware of anyone on here supporting the taking of hostages.
Aware of plenty who defended Israel killing innocents by the thousands.
Although the numbers are dwindling and most now condemn Israels actions.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Would you take the pay cut to do the job?
I wouldn’t.
No, I would be quite happy with the pay. No party would have me though. Too idiosyncratic in my views.
I suspect the subset of people who would be happy being an MP on £200k per year, but not happy being an MP on current terms are no better suited to being MPs than the current lot.
If you don’t pay the rate, people will leave the profession and quality will decline.
It is certainly the case in the permanent structure of government, where they try and get software developers for £35k a year. In London.
It also works that way for doctors, I hear.
Sure, you can fill the jobs. Expecting quality by “sacrifice for public duty” is a management game.
Unless you only want people of private means?
I think its more complicated than you suggest. An MP is very different to a software developer or a doctor, so I don't think the comparison applies.
To get "normal" people in, and reduce the power of the whips, my preference is for 10% or so of MPs through sortition.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain whatsoever.
Speaking of post-imperial delusions, surely any action of the second most powerful country in the world would make Israel take notice? And isn’t British soft power the envy of the globe?
We could put a fairly big stone in their shoe via the F35 program. Big and Expensive has its fingers in many pies. By withdrawing consent to sales of weapons that have U.K. participation, we could effect even more
The UK has no power over F-35 sales as they are US FMS government to government deals and the UK government isn't one of the two in that deal. As if the US would EVER give the UK veto power over an F-35 deal!
They could order BAE/RR to hold deliveries of F-35 components (this might need primary legislation) but obviously wouldn't fucking dare.
That’s what I meant - could withhold F35 components.
In fact, if an arms embargo was applied this would lead to an interesting situation regarding such sales - unless there was an exception, they would *have* to stop
This William Wragg story looks like it’s going to explode !!
I'm just baffled why anyone would do what is alleged. Giving out private details of friends and acquaintances to a unknown third party because you think the third party can compromise you - wtf?
He had already announced himself as a stand-down at the next Election, BTW.
And sending naked photos of himself to someone, as an elected politician with risks that are obvious. Where do the parties get these people from?
Remember the post I've made many times
No one sane wants to be an MP, there are easier ways to make more money and easier ways to make the changes you wish to make...
Work for a lobbyist. Get a grant of the govt to then lobby the govt for the policy you want. You get the change you want with no accountability and you get well paid for it.
That is the next scandal. Or rather it's already happening. But we aren't paying enough attention. Yet. Unaccountable lobbyists are the overmighty union barons or over-indulged City of our time.
Utility companies wave hello.
How's this for a funny one? I'm suing A Certain Company because they repeatedly attempted to swindle me. They've just applied to dismiss the case. The only reason they give is that they do not consider it to have merit. The real reason (and I am not making this up) is as they made clear when asking me for yet another extension for their reply is they have lost the paperwork...
I hope you are taping your calls with them.
It's all been by email.
But yes, future calls will be taped.
You’re sueing them, and they’re *still* sending you emails?
This could be fun 🍿
The number of people who think that the story about the hole and digging means they should hire this to fix the problem….
Been to one of the old opencast shale pits in Germany. It's enormous. I'm not sure machines like those dig a hole so much as make the hole disappear, they dig out such a wide space.
I made a very large Lego model of one of those. It cost an ****** fortune in Lego. If I get a spare month or two I might rebuild it. Although I think a transporter bridge might be next.
If I ever get the time...
It's indeed such an intriguing machine that I actually bought a plastic kit of that very excavator many, many years ago and built it. It was enormous even at 1:200 scale.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
The new pay deal for Consultants (a significantly better offer than the one rejected in January, and far better than the one last summer) has just been accepted by ballot of members of the BMA and HCSA. So no more Consultant strikes. I think we got the best raise of all public sector workers, albeit not as good as the triple lock.
The government now needs to engage with the Juniors and SAS grades to stop the strikes with a similar deal.
So no more opportunities to do extra private work while on strike. That amounts to a pay cut!
This William Wragg story looks like it’s going to explode !!
I'm just baffled why anyone would do what is alleged. Giving out private details of friends and acquaintances to a unknown third party because you think the third party can compromise you - wtf?
He had already announced himself as a stand-down at the next Election, BTW.
I lurk over on the reddit channel r/scams, and the amount of sextortion scams is astronomical. But the answer is always the same. You do not engage with these people, even if you think they have something compromising about you; they're entire power comes from the threat. If they actually did release whatever they said they would, then they lose power.
So block, ignore, whatever. Never answer. Never.
The rise of AI is pretty much going to make all this irrelevent anyway. If someone really wanted, they could use AI to generate pictures of anyone in compromising positions. And therefore the answer to any picture is simply, "It's fake AI generated."
You mean Putin and Modi have not been photographed sharing a bed?
Edit: PS He does call for the expulsion from the party of alleged national security risk Priti Patel.
My goodness, the Israeli lobby has truly infected British politics. That headline is a massive distortion from what Alan Duncan actually said. Which is always the case when anyone has the balls to call put Israel on its colonization and theft of Palestinian land.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
So where does his interest in maritime commerce in Antigua spring from? Curiouser and curiouser.
Is there a word meaning "shares both a chair and a vice-chair with"? Because if there is, it would apply to the 1922 Committee and the Antigua and Barbuda APPG.
The following may be of interest to those pulling on the Antigua thread:
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Are the ones interested or not interested in International Humanitarian Law the same ones as are interested in The International Convention against the Taking of Hostages.
Are you still justifying the Genocide?
Not aware of anyone on here supporting the taking of hostages.
Aware of plenty who defended Israel killing innocents by the thousands.
Although the numbers are dwindling and most now condemn Israels actions.
It isn't genocide. It's war.
Genocide is a form of war.
Did you think it was a form of peace?
That is the most ridiculous logical flaw that one can expect from Russian shills. Just because genocide is a form of war doesn't mean all war is genocide. My 8 year old could spot this error.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
Electoral calculus says this gives 500 labour seats. 55 tory seats and ZERO Reform seats.... that is nuts
EC was never intended as anything other than the crudest of benchmarks, but it is a rough guide of sorts and when you have polling leads of this size, the message is clear.
If you are thinking of placing bets on this, you need to consider the likely impact of two large probabilities - swingback and tactical voting. They work in opposite directions, and you could get both, or neither, or one without the other. The difference they make is likely to be huge. I would say that at the extremes the Tories could be down to 25 seats, or finish on a relatively satisfactory 175.
The Betfair betting markets appear by and large to have factored this in.
Having spent my 62 years under mainly Conservative administrations I cannot imagine the Conservatives on 25 seats. A bad night for me would be Cons on 175 which is at the top of your range and a good night with a 25 seat majority.
The evidence points to your scenario, but that is so unbelievable I can't countenance it. Even when catastrophe looms they pull something out of the hat. Take last years locals, poor, but not the disaster forecast.
No one has voted yet and of those who vote most are not doing terribly badly, so in the privacy of the voting booth won't we reflect on our palatial home our prestige cars and Labour's VAT on school fees and think, nah, I'll give Rishi another punt.
In this election, I think for the first time, the number of Millenials registered to vote exceeds the number of Boomers. Turnout will be key, but Millenials have not trended Tory over time in the way that previous generations did. I see this with my own son, now 30, engaged, and a homeowner with a professional career. He is doing well and in previous generations would likely be trending Tory, but absolutely no sign of that happening at all. He is appalled at the Culture War stuff.
Even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
The Conservatives are now more likely to win white working class Leavers than middle class Remainers too
Looking at the Data tables I don't think that true.
Lab have a comfortable lead in C2DE as well as ABC1, and are not far behind in 2016 Leavers, with only 34% of 2016 Leavers supporting Con in the latest YouGov.
It is true.
Yougov has the Tories on 22% with C2DEs but 21% with ABC1s.
The Conservatives as you say are on 34% with Leavers but just 12% with Remainers.
So Brexit vote is a far bigger determinant of voting intention now than class, indeed if anything the Conservatives now do at least as well if not better with working class than middle class voters
Yes, the Tories are doing less badly with Leavers than Remainers, but that is just polishing a turd. They are doing badly with both!
ABC1 voters are more likely to turn out to vote too.
If the 34% the Tories are on with Leavers was their national rating we would be heading for a hung parliament potentially.
It is the Conservatives dire rating with Remainers which will give Starmer a majority.
Working class pensioners are also more likely to vote than middle class under 30s
That is the Tories problem in a nutshell. Their vote is a declining demographic of retired C2DE Leavers. A demographic that is not philosophically sympathetic to a libertarian freebooting change in direction.
If the Conservatives want to win back voters who are interested in free enterprise, dynamic business, personal responsibility and freedom then there is a potential pool of voters. It isn't one that combines with its current Brexit nativism.
Free market libertarian non Brexit supporting voters are probably even fewer, less than 10% of the electorate certainly.
How a likely Labour government performs on the economy will in any case affect the Tory voteshare in opposition far more than what they decide to do in opposition
I think the rejoin project looks like this:
1) kick out the tories and the right and realign, join erasmus and other secondary programmes 2) customs union and security agreement, 3) single market for 10 years beginning in labour's second term, as old age thins out the eu hating boomer cohort and make a reversion impossible, 4) rejoin - probably in around 15 years.
Will the eu loving millenial cohort taking centre stage in this period, I don't see how anybody can prevent this. If Trump becomes president, it might go even faster.
Erasmus was down to an absurd demand for contributions.
The EU didn’t want us in the secondary programs - they made that quite clear.
I think nobody in europe will give the tories an easy ride. That party is not trusted in europe after the way they negotiated brexit. I suspect the eu will lavish labour with sweet deals. The eu has an interest in a pro-eu stance improving life for Brits.
There isn’t a “sweet deal” to be had. The reality is that the deal we’ve got is already good.
It's shite and you know it. It's just better than Johnson's dog's dinner was.
In global terms it’s a very close trading relationship.
Tell that to the EU drivers I passed queueing in Operation Stack last Friday.
Brexit isn’t responsible for our geography, and Operation Stack goes back 20 years.
That's cobblers, there are significantly more documentary checks at Dover than there ever were.
If the net effect of more border friction ends up stimulating the domestic economy, would that be a bad thing? Why are our manufacturing PMIs better than France or Germany?
So there is more border friction? I thought you just said there wasn't.
Maybe there isn’t enough. Should we have given the EU tariff-free access to our domestic market?
Ah, we're back to 'WTO Terms'. That's a blast from the past!
Cutting through the back and forth, the reality is that the UK has outgrown the EU since we fully left.
The new pay deal for Consultants (a significantly better offer than the one rejected in January, and far better than the one last summer) has just been accepted by ballot of members of the BMA and HCSA. So no more Consultant strikes. I think we got the best raise of all public sector workers, albeit not as good as the triple lock.
The government now needs to engage with the Juniors and SAS grades to stop the strikes with a similar deal.
Thank goodness! Some of the best paid people in the country have managed to get a further pay rise. Move straight past the Macans and onto the GT3R.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
This William Wragg story looks like it’s going to explode !!
I'm just baffled why anyone would do what is alleged. Giving out private details of friends and acquaintances to a unknown third party because you think the third party can compromise you - wtf?
He had already announced himself as a stand-down at the next Election, BTW.
And sending naked photos of himself to someone, as an elected politician with risks that are obvious. Where do the parties get these people from?
Remember the post I've made many times
No one sane wants to be an MP, there are easier ways to make more money and easier ways to make the changes you wish to make...
Work for a lobbyist. Get a grant of the govt to then lobby the govt for the policy you want. You get the change you want with no accountability and you get well paid for it.
That is the next scandal. Or rather it's already happening. But we aren't paying enough attention. Yet. Unaccountable lobbyists are the overmighty union barons or over-indulged City of our time.
Utility companies wave hello.
How's this for a funny one? I'm suing A Certain Company because they repeatedly attempted to swindle me. They've just applied to dismiss the case. The only reason they give is that they do not consider it to have merit. The real reason (and I am not making this up) is as they made clear when asking me for yet another extension for their reply is they have lost the paperwork...
I hope you are taping your calls with them.
It's all been by email.
But yes, future calls will be taped.
You’re sueing them, and they’re *still* sending you emails?
This could be fun 🍿
The number of people who think that the story about the hole and digging means they should hire this to fix the problem….
Been to one of the old opencast shale pits in Germany. It's enormous. I'm not sure machines like those dig a hole so much as make the hole disappear, they dig out such a wide space.
I made a very large Lego model of one of those. It cost an ****** fortune in Lego. If I get a spare month or two I might rebuild it. Although I think a transporter bridge might be next.
If I ever get the time...
That reminds me, I have a half-built LEGO Concorde, a Christmas present that I haven’t touched since Boxing Day. I’ve moved house and got a promotion since then, and have very little free time at the moment - but it’s the Eid holiday next week so I might get some time off
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee calls for Arms Sales to Israel to be banned.
SKS fans (and Sunak fans if there are any) please explain where has your boys have been for the last 6 months
Apart from cheering on Genocide from the sidelines and ignoring International law Obvs
The call to ban arms to Israel rather sums up the post-Imperial delusions that even those who view themselves as 'anti-imperialists' share. As well as that MPs can be very silly in the name of grandstanding.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports
unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain
whatsoever.
Are you not interested in the law around International Humanitarian Law. Afraid that trumps a bit of financial trauma.
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Are the ones interested or not interested in International Humanitarian Law the same ones as are interested in The International Convention against the Taking of Hostages.
Are you still justifying the Genocide?
Not aware of anyone on here supporting the taking of hostages.
Aware of plenty who defended Israel killing innocents by the thousands.
Although the numbers are dwindling and most now condemn Israels actions.
It isn't genocide. It's war.
Genocide is a form of war.
Did you think it was a form of peace?
That is the most ridiculous logical flaw that one can expect from Russian shills. Just because genocide is a form of war doesn't mean all war is genocide. My 8 year old could spot this error.
No, it's not. It was a response to Topping's point, and logically means no more than that some wars are also genocides.
I'm not endorsing the argument, but it's logically fine.
I am sure Alan Duncan's comments will have a week of daily headlines, because everyone knows anti-Semitism is treated equally whether you are a Labour or Tory MP.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
So where does his interest in maritime commerce in Antigua spring from? Curiouser and curiouser.
Is there a word meaning "shares both a chair and a vice-chair with"? Because if there is, it would apply to the 1922 Committee and the Antigua and Barbuda APPG.
The following may be of interest to those pulling on the Antigua thread:
The emergence of the internet, and now AI, makes me think we might be heading back to a time where people are more socially prudent. At first these advances in technology encouraged over sharing of personal info, I think in future they will act as a kind of church/school/government/village gossip that shames people into conformity
I am sure Alan Duncan's comments will have a week of daily headlines, because everyone knows anti-Semitism is treated equally whether you are a Labour or Tory MP.
The emergence of the internet, and now AI, makes me think we might be heading back to a time where people will become more socially prudent. At first these advances in technology encouraged over sharing of personal info, I think in future they will act as a kind of church/school/government/village gossip that shames people into conformity
An interesting thought, but not much sign of social prudence from Mr Wragg and his mates so far.
The William Wragg story has me gobsmacked. Why anyone sends compromising pictures to strangers goodness knows, but if you are an MP? Honestly. And then when being blackmailed for telephone numbers you think by supplying them it will not make things worse? Really? And then the reaction? Today it is a middling story. Once upon a time this would have been huge. A senior MP succumbing to blackmail. We have reached the point of scandals where this is trivial by comparison.
Your thinking seems to be, "It's very risky, so why do it?" The obvious answer is, "Because it's very risky". Some people get a thrill out of that.
On succumbing to the subsequent blackmail, people often panic and succumb to blackmail - that's why blackmailers do it.
It clearly wasn't wise of William Wragg, but none of it is a particularly deep psychological mystery.
What is a bit of a mystery is how a 36 year old who's been in Parliament nine years, has never had a government job, and announced he'd be standing down at the next election some 18 months ago now, gets described as a "senior MP". The bar on that title has been lowered considerably over the years!
That’s what senior MPs are now.
The job pays about what people get about 5 years into a good job in London.
So that’s what you get.
Maybe we should cast the net for our MPs a little wider than people who consider £90 000 plus allowances a starting salary.
Just a thought...
Given Wragg used to be a primary school teacher and was then an MP's caseworker for a year before election in 2015, I doubt even he does
In the interests of party political balance, shouldn't someone post the Grindr picture of Bryant in his pants?
The emergence of the internet, and now AI, makes me think we might be heading back to a time where people will become more socially prudent. At first these advances in technology encouraged over sharing of personal info, I think in future they will act as a kind of church/school/government/village gossip that shames people into conformity
An interesting thought, but not much sign of social prudence from Mr Wragg and his mates so far.
That’s what prompted my idea. Surely soon people will look at these incidents and think ‘not for me’, before they send such photographs
It used to be that God saw everything and you were judged on your behaviour when you passed away. I used to think of it as a kind of ‘This is Your Life’. If AI and technology can access everything you’ve ever said, every picture you’ve sent, every post you’ve like online or via WhatsApp, they become God, and the whole world your jury whilst you’re still breathing
I am sure Alan Duncan's comments will have a week of daily headlines, because everyone knows anti-Semitism is treated equally whether you are a Labour or Tory MP.
Alan Duncan rightly criticized Israel's long policies of colonization of Palestinian land. Jeremy Corbyn openly praised murals of money-grabbing, big-nosed Jews crushing the world's poor. What a ridiculous comparison.
Comments
But it's not going to happen. Any rejoin terms will be vastly inferior to those we had in 2019, so what's the point?
Best to make of what we can with Brexit. Perhaps a turd can be polished to a degree.
By the way, the EU is a far from perfect organisation, it's just leaving was far worse, and for what?
Wragg the dog.
It should be combined with “Living Wills” for corporations and banks - go bankrupt, and the essential parts of the business should keep moving. The management, bond holders and shareholders should be the victims.
People with pension plans have the ability to see where their pension pot is invested. And very often can move it between funds…. Think of it as a tree of responsibility.
The total capitalisation of Thames Water is a tiny fraction of the money in private pension plans. Unless someone has been a twat and bet everything on zero on the Roulette, this shouldn’t be existential.
The ‘street fighter’ and a £70k donation: how Christen Ager-Hanssen got close to the Tories
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/05/the-street-fighter-and-a-70k-donation-how-christen-ager-hanssen-got-close-to-the-tories
I love cricket, that’s no secret.
So I’m pleased that today we can support even more young people to get into the game.
We’re investing £35 million in grassroots cricket to help over 900,000 young people into playing cricket.
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1776162261972693436
Purdah is for little people.
We barely sell any arms to Israel, as the annual value of exports wouldn't buy you a top Premier League midfielder. They are also all components in wider defence projects and collaborations. We don't sell them any actual weapons systems.
If wanting to take a moral stance that had some real-world impact you'd be better off banning arms imports from Israel. Though that impact would by and large be on us and contributing to our armed forces falling apart more than they already are.
Which is why the government won't ban exports unilaterally - for the sake of nothing, if reciprocated, we'd be almost entirely damaging ourselves for no gain whatsoever.
If I ever get the time...
I suspect that this isn’t some random guy on Grindr, but rather an elaborate setup involving a number of accounts on that service and a small number of wel-researched and high-profile targets that they set up to befriend, as in an old-fashioned honey trap from the days before the internet.
That Wragg is openly gay, rather than closeted, possibly saw him let his guard down a little on a gay dating site, whereas a closeted man with a public profile would be very worried about being ‘outed’ by blackmail and possibly more circumspect.
I do actually feel a little sorry for the guy, even though he clearly messed up. It’s not as if contact details for people can’t be found by anyone with the will to go looking.
So block, ignore, whatever. Never answer. Never.
The rise of AI is pretty much going to make all this irrelevent anyway. If someone really wanted, they could use AI to generate pictures of anyone in compromising positions. And therefore the answer to any picture is simply, "It's fake AI generated."
You quote manufacturing PMI for March every day as the single indicator that Brexit is working.
Wealden council: 3.9% Lab->Con swing
Cornwall council: 8.6% LD->Con swing
Conservative surge! Sunak victorious!
If we don't we will be legally complicit in Genocide.
Fortunately, many on the left do criticise all such evils, wherever they occur. Many on the right do, as well - as such morality is not strictly the domain of left or right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrender_of_Caserta
Four or five days before the end of the war in Europe. The argument *against* being that the protracted 'negotiation' for the surrender was unnecessary; a much simpler and quicker surrender could have been negotiated which would have saved many lives. Instead, the Germans and Italians involved were more interested in saving their own necks. Karl Wolf being one such example.
I think you can also ask questions of Ministers in the early Blair years wtf they were doing pulling the Fujitsu software from Government departments because it was discovered to be shite and allow the Post Office to run with it. Likewise Ministers at the tail end of the Major Government.
Not aware of anyone on here supporting the taking of hostages.
Aware of plenty who defended Israel killing innocents by the thousands.
Although the numbers are dwindling and most now condemn Israels actions.
So on that basis alone, no more than Sunak.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/03/17/the-paradox-that-the-tory-party-cannot-currently-solve/
And he has imminent news.
A return to Parliament, a shoo in to Scott Benton's Blackpool seat and Nige is your uncle, the next Conservative Prime Minister.
Honestly there have to be some standards.
Here is something suitable for all sorts of occasions.
"On 20 January 2022, Wragg accused whips of blackmail against Conservative MPs who were believed to support ousting Johnson as prime minister. He said he has heard stories of MPs being told they could face loss of public investment in their constituencies and releasing of embarrassing stories."
See the number of Argentine weapons deals that we have stuffed up since 1982.
The problem is that this gets noted on the international arms market. South Korea is making a killing at the moment, because they have a rep for selling for cash, no questions. As opposed to the Germans, Swiss and others who spent their time equivocating over Ukraine.
F1: lack of running + wet weather = no bet.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/04/japan-pre-qualifying-2024.html
It is certainly the case in the permanent structure of government, where they try and get software developers for £35k a year. In London.
It also works that way for doctors, I hear.
Sure, you can fill the jobs. Expecting quality by “sacrifice for public duty” is a management game.
Unless you only want people of private means?
They could order BAE/RR to hold deliveries of F-35 components (this might need primary legislation) but obviously wouldn't fucking dare.
The government now needs to engage with the Juniors and SAS grades to stop the strikes with a similar deal.
Did you think it was a form of peace?
To get "normal" people in, and reduce the power of the whips, my preference is for 10% or so of MPs through sortition.
In fact, if an arms embargo was applied this would lead to an interesting situation regarding such sales - unless there was an exception, they would *have* to stop
Will you be examining the current investigation by the Conservative Party into National Treasure Alan Duncan in a thread header?
https://news.sky.com/story/sir-alan-duncan-former-tory-minister-under-investigation-criticised-for-latest-israel-comments-13107957
Edit: PS He does call for the expulsion from the party of alleged national security risk Priti Patel.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68729123
The following may be of interest to those pulling on the Antigua thread:
Lloyds List, 21 March 2024
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1148615/Antigua-and-Barbuda-fresh-flag-of-choice-for-Russia-calling-dark-fleet-tankers
This is their report from last year, with the (slaps thigh) title "Shifty Shades of Grey":
https://image.info.lloydslistintelligence.com/Web/MaritimeInsightsIntelligenceLimited/{cf88b663-f7c5-4871-99e6-aa61dfa46b47}_Whitepaper_-_Shifty_Shades_of_Grey.pdf
It was a response to Topping's point, and logically means no more than that some wars are also genocides.
I'm not endorsing the argument, but it's logically fine.
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1bwce45/percentage_of_muslims_in_favor_of_making_sharia/
(Apart from me, very early in this thread).
https://x.com/atticumfloreat/status/1776190481820533213?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
It used to be that God saw everything and you were judged on your behaviour when you passed away. I used to think of it as a kind of ‘This is Your Life’. If AI and technology can access everything you’ve ever said, every picture you’ve sent, every post you’ve like online or via WhatsApp, they become God, and the whole world your jury whilst you’re still breathing