I'd take 19% and no seats, and the LDs getting 28 seats with 10% just to see them try and justify it with a straight face!
To put that into context, were those vote shares realised under a fully proportional list PR system (and obviously, changing the system would change how people voted so I'm not suggesting we can read straight across), the number of MPs would be something like:
Lab: 215 Con: 183 UKIP: 120 LD: 63 Others: 69
Personally I think pr/av etc is too complicated for voters... Having one box to tick makes it nice and easy
My solution would be to have 630 constituencies and allocate the other 20 seats on national vote share. Something like one seat for each five percent. So if the results were as this poll suggested, ukip could choose 3 candidates to represent them in the House of Commons and their constituency would be 19% of the country spread about
You then end up with 20 second-class MPs who are not elected by their constituents but from the scraps from the master's table.
So you'd rather 25% of people that bother to vote were unrepresented, while some parties have 29 more MPs on half the vote of other parties. Fair enough, each to their own,
Many of the 20 MPs you call seconds class would be from the 20 constituencies that were abolished anyway, but at least parties that get decent vote nationwide would be able to represent the nations wishes
Sun comes out is bad news for Ed Miliband Two plus Two equaling four is bad news for Ed Miliband Marginal voter losing the tv remote is bad news for Ed Miliband Floating voter finding lost sock in the fridge is bad news for Ed Miliband Labour majority will be bad news for Ed Miliband Curtains clashing with your wallpaper is bad news for Ed Miliband
In other news strange how the last Populus poll was given the full squirrel treatment on here and produce a full two posts, whilst todays Opinium gave us a bit of excitement among the usual suspects, despite both having the same Labour lead percentage.
Show me the crossover......Show me the crossover!
Erm,were you on a train with nigel farage recently by any chance?
With all these polls, is it possible to contract battle fatigue before the election even starts?
Who needs polls, Gideon and Boris are doing the Battle of the Bullingdons.
Rage of Boris at 'Osborne the liar.'
The simmering ‘Boris versus George’ leadership feud burst into the open over reports that Mr Osborne had ‘delivered personally’ a message to Mr Johnson that David Cameron wants him to stand as a parliamentary candidate at the next Election.
The aim was said to be to force Mr Johnson to prove his loyalty by ‘pinning his political fate to that of the Prime Minister’. But it sparked a fierce backlash from Mr Johnson.
A well-placed source says that, when he was told Mr Osborne had approached him about the matter, the Mayor exclaimed: ‘Bull****! There has been no such conversation. They are trying to tie me in.’
Mr Johnson believes the manoeuvre is a ploy to ensure he gets equal blame if the Tories lose power, and make it easier for Mr Osborne to beat him in a subsequent race to succeed Mr Cameron.
There is a growing rift between the two men, now seen as the main candidates in the race to succeed Mr Cameron in the event of a Tory flop at the next Election.
With all these polls, is it possible to contract battle fatigue before the election even starts?
Who needs polls, Gideon and Boris are doing the Battle of the Bullingdons.
The simmering ‘Boris versus George’ leadership feud burst into the open over reports that Mr Osborne had ‘delivered personally’ a message to Mr Johnson that David Cameron wants him to stand as a parliamentary candidate at the next Election.
The aim was said to be to force Mr Johnson to prove his loyalty by ‘pinning his political fate to that of the Prime Minister’. But it sparked a fierce backlash from Mr Johnson.
A well-placed source says that, when he was told Mr Osborne had approached him about the matter, the Mayor exclaimed: ‘Bull****! There has been no such conversation. They are trying to tie me in.’
Mr Johnson believes the manoeuvre is a ploy to ensure he gets equal blame if the Tories lose power, and make it easier for Mr Osborne to beat him in a subsequent race to succeed Mr Cameron.
There is a growing rift between the two men, now seen as the main candidates in the race to succeed Mr Cameron in the event of a Tory flop at the next Election.
The SNP wanted the old Royal High School on Calton Hill. It was Mr Dewar and Labour (then as ever run from London) who refused to accept such common sense and who made the disastrous key decisions well before the Scottish Parliament was even convened. It was only the expenses scandals at Westminster, and the fact that Holyrood had got its act sorted out well before, that remedied that in terms of public perception.
To be fair to the architect, he was dying of a brain tumour, I believe.
What are your views on Portcullis House, in terms of architecture, sustainability and budget for function (as an office block for only a minority of Westminster MPs)?
I love much modern architecture, but Edinburgh - one of the world's most beautiful capitals - is blemished by TWO hideous modern buildings, the Museum of Scotland, and the Scottish Parliament. They just don't work, and they are big: they positively prolapse into the cityscape.
And, unfortunately, Edinburgh is quite a small capital, so it is damaged by these buildings. By contrast a vast city like London, less obviously handsome than Edinburgh, but much grander in size and swagger, can absorb some ugly intrusions (which is lucky, as there have been many).
And the Scots Parliament cost so much!
Terrible shame. It could and should have been a masterpiece.
The Museum of Scotland was a Tory carbuncle (Michael Forsyth).
The Holyrood building was a Labour carbuncle (Donald Dewar).
Terrible shame. It could and should have been a masterpiece.
This would have been amazing
the Campaign for a Scottish Parliament yesterday urged Mr Dewar to back a legislative ''campus'' spread across Calton Hill, Regent Road and Waterloo Place encompassing several buildings including the former General Post Office.
Terrible shame. It could and should have been a masterpiece.
This would have been amazing
the Campaign for a Scottish Parliament yesterday urged Mr Dewar to back a legislative ''campus'' spread across Calton Hill, Regent Road and Waterloo Place encompassing several buildings including the former General Post Office.
I'm digging that jumper, would keep me warm for the match.
If you watched the football I watched today,no jumper would have warmed you up ;-)
I see what you mean. On the footballing note, has Pardew lost the plot. He is in a long term contract, on very high wages and knows full well that the only way the club could get rid of him without paying up would be some sort of misconduct, so he goes and buts an opposition player. The mans an idiot.
Sunday People run the government funding for PIE story.
Huge sums of TAXPAYER'S cash 'handed to vile child-sex pervert group' by Home Office officials
The claim is that £70,000 was provided by the Home Office between 1977 and 1980. The Civil Servant who "rubber stamped" the payments is identified as Clifford Hindley.
It seems that all three main parties are tarnished by the revelations.
The funding was originally authorised by the Labour Government under Callaghan.
It was renewed by the Tories under Thatcher.
Clifford Hindley who unusually for the time was openly gay, was well known in Whitehall as a pal of Jeremy Thorpe, the ex-Liberal leader who was acquitted in a sensational murder trial
@toadmeister: Horrified by prospect of country led by homophobic gangster invading Ukraine. Hope to join @OwenJones84 and pals soon. When's the protest?
I'm digging that jumper, would keep me warm for the match.
If you watched the football I watched today,no jumper would have warmed you up ;-)
I see what you mean. On the footballing note, has Pardew lost the plot. He is in a long term contract, on very high wages and knows full well that the only way the club could get rid of him without paying up would be some sort of misconduct, so he goes and buts an opposition player. The mans an idiot.
BBC Sport @BBCSport · 13 mins Newcastle issue statement saying manager Alan Pardew has been issued with a £100,000 fine and formal warning from the club #nufc #MOTD
So your response to tantrums is incoherent rage. Most amusing and not hilarious proof at all.
Haha you got me, I'm livid! Damn this incoherent rage!
I understand why you're always so touchy, I hate the eu ruling England so lord knows how it must feel to be Scottish with us bossing you about for the last 300 years or so
Somewhat puzzling why wee Willie Hague wasn't called a "fruitcake, loony and closet racist" for that though luckily Cammie was only a prospective MP at that time.
So your response to tantrums is incoherent rage. Most amusing and not hilarious proof at all.
Haha you got me, I'm livid! Damn this incoherent rage!
I understand why you're always so touchy, I hate the eu ruling England so lord knows how it must feel to be Scottish with us bossing you about for the last 300 years or so
Looks like the succession war has started in the Tory party.Not sure why as Cameron is not that far behind.
Seems bizarre - still too early for them to throw the towel in. Extraordinary stuff - although Boris' I'll discipline is legend. Who are his key allies in the House?
Looks like the succession war has started in the Tory party.Not sure why as Cameron is not that far behind.
True but the incompetent fop failed to get boundary changes and the gullible tory eurosceptics are going to erupt again soon enough. Likely around about May.
Somewhat puzzling why wee Willie Hague wasn't called a "fruitcake, loony and closet racist" for that though luckily Cammie was only a prospective MP at that time.
So your response to tantrums is incoherent rage. Most amusing and not hilarious proof at all.
Haha you got me, I'm livid! Damn this incoherent rage!
I understand why you're always so touchy, I hate the eu ruling England so lord knows how it must feel to be Scottish with us bossing you about for the last 300 years or so
Looks like the succession war has started in the Tory party.Not sure why as Cameron is not that far behind.
Seems bizarre - still too early for them to throw the towel in. Extraordinary stuff - although Boris' I'll discipline is legend. Who are his key allies in the House?
Not sure about the House but he might have a mole in number 10 in Lynton Crosby.
Talking of Boris, the Mayor of London's Office has set up a large stage with stands in Trafalgar Square, for the start of 'Russia Week' tomorrow. Fortuitous timing.
Can't see the festival passing off without some disruption in light of current events in the East.
Looks like the succession war has started in the Tory party.Not sure why as Cameron is not that far behind.
True but the incompetent fop failed to get boundary changes and the gullible tory eurosceptics are going to erupt again soon enough. Likely around about May.
Bit unfair to blame Dave for losing boundary reforms given Tory rebels shot down Lord`s reform and Clegg vetoed boundary changes in revenge.
Dr Strangelove Threads By Dawn's Early Light The War Game The Day After Fail Safe On The Beach Planet of the Apes
Terminator Oblivion Book of Eli Independence Day
World War III (Der Dritte Weltkrieg) * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III_(film) * h ttp://tu.tv/videos/zdf-tv-docudrama-world-war-3
Without Warning (1984) * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Without_Warning_(1994_film) * h ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9xMTA7qhZM Fail Safe (2000) * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail_Safe_(2000_TV_film)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=djqlAT-7be4
Countdown to Looking Glass (1984) * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countdown_to_Looking_Glass
www.youtube.com/watch?v=knSSUEdLcvg
Special Bulletin (1983) * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Bulletin * h ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKY-2zkWJuo
Testament (1983) * h ttp://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/testament-1983 * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Testament_(film) www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuOe57HG_MU www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOcVbQpUhuw www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNFPpdrn9dM www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGxbQSdua54 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ba2ITH1Wzks www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvyr_0sJrM0 www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EakU0s5FxI
First Strike (1979) * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Strike_(1979_film) www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlPEBROvR9w www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlPEBROvR9w
Talking of Boris, the Mayor of London's Office has set up a large stage with stands in Trafalgar Square, for the start of 'Russia Week' tomorrow. Fortuitous timing.
So Putins homophobia vs the homophobic fascists. It is really quite hard to pick sides with this one. Perhaps best to decide what Britains interests are before getting too deep in the mire of competing slavic nationalisms.
@toadmeister: Horrified by prospect of country led by homophobic gangster invading Ukraine. Hope to join @OwenJones84 and pals soon. When's the protest?
Talking of Boris, the Mayor of London's Office has set up a large stage with stands in Trafalgar Square, for the start of 'Russia Week' tomorrow. Fortuitous timing.
Absolute classic!
Is the incompetent fop going to do another 'Syria' in the commons and risk getting humiliated by his own side again? I somehow doubt it.
Looks like the succession war has started in the Tory party.Not sure why as Cameron is not that far behind.
True but the incompetent fop failed to get boundary changes and the gullible tory eurosceptics are going to erupt again soon enough. Likely around about May.
Bit unfair to blame Dave for losing boundary reforms given Tory rebels shot down Lord`s reform and Clegg vetoed boundary changes in revenge.
John Major no doubt also felt hard done by but a weak PM is a weak PM. They're Cameron's backbenchers and he keeps taking them for gullible fools. So they're obviously going to hit back hard every time they belatedly realise they've been had.
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Looks like the succession war has started in the Tory party.Not sure why as Cameron is not that far behind.
True but the incompetent fop failed to get boundary changes and the gullible tory eurosceptics are going to erupt again soon enough. Likely around about May.
Bit unfair to blame Dave for losing boundary reforms given Tory rebels shot down Lord`s reform and Clegg vetoed boundary changes in revenge.
Nothing to do with HoL reform.
"Matthew D'Ancona says in his book In It Together (p. 289), based on his own direct conversations, that by the summer of 2012 Nick Clegg had come to believe that the boundary changes constituted "an existential threat" to the Liberal Democrats. In his exact words, quoted by D'Ancona, "I can't, under any circumstances, allow these boundary changes to take place before the next election. This is an existential threat.""
I rather worry that 24h news is creating the crisis in Ukraine. The BBC sensationalising every step for example.
I imagine the reality of their state's disintegration for most Ukrainians is very dull indeed. I'm rather hoping that it stays dull.
The newspapers are just trying to keep up with the TV stations in terms of sensationalism, and given they only get one shot per day they have to try even harder.
As near as you can get in diplomatic language to telling the leader of the western world to f*ck off:
Official release by Kremlin through ITAR-TASS:
MOSCOW, March 02, /ITAR-TASS/.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. counterpart Barack Obama discussed in detail “different aspects of an extraordinary situation in Ukraine” in a telephone conversation, the Kremlin press service reported on Sunday.
The Russian president noted that Russia retained the right to protect country’s interests and Russian speakers living in Ukraine if violence spread on eastern Ukrainian regions and the Crimea. Putin stated about real threats to life and health of Russian citizens and numerous compatriots living in the country.
In reply to Obama’s concern voiced over plans on possible use of Russian armed forces in Ukraine Putin noted provocative and criminal actions by ultra-nationalistic elements that are actually encouraged by current authorities in Kiev.
The United States initiated the telephone conversation.
And in case anyone thought that the report of this call reflected the poor personal relationship between Putin and Obama, see also:
ITAR-TASS links:
Putin tells UN head Russia can’t stay aside if violence flares in Ukraine Putin tells France president about real threats to life of Russian citizens in Ukraine
The west have so far handled this crisis with total lack of vision, strategy and understanding of where real power lies.
It looks as though Putin has committed to fast and decisive action (no doubt to be justified by some provocative incidents tomorrow).
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
That's all polls. In close detail YouGov is far more spiky and somewhat erratic at times and not just because of the sheer volume of their polling.
You can see for yourself as the all polls trend does include all the polling companies where you can pick out YouGov's figures individually on any set date they were done.
In the Sunday Times there's a story about Lord Howard at a private dinner at a think thank
A source said Howard’s message was “forget the obsession with UKIP, we need to target the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and one of the ways to do this is to face down the climate sceptics”.
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
In the Sunday Times there's a story about Lord Howard at a private dinner at a think thank
A source said Howard’s message was “forget the obsession with UKIP, we need to target the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and one of the ways to do this is to face down the climate sceptics”.
He actually thinks there are votes in the Conservatives attacking climate sceptics?
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
In the Sunday Times there's a story about Lord Howard at a private dinner at a think thank
A source said Howard’s message was “forget the obsession with UKIP, we need to target the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and one of the ways to do this is to face down the climate sceptics”.
He actually thinks there are votes in the Conservatives attacking climate sceptics?
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
From the Sunday Times, Better Together don't have a pot to piss in.
BETTER TOGETHER, the cross-party campaign to save the Union, faces a financial crisis after failing to raise even half its £7m funding target.
With 200 days to go till the Scottish referendum, the group led by Alistair Darling says it fears public opinion could swing the nationalists’ way because it cannot match the yes camp’s war chest.
Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows the Lib Dems at just 9%, three points behind UKIP. Labour is on 38%, four points ahead of the Conservatives.
Interesting the tories seem to have moved up a notch and to be sticking around 34% in some recent polls,when previous weeks below 34%.
There's a great graphic in the Sunday Times showing the VI trends with YouGov.
Is it pretty much dead flat? There's been no movement of any note, in any direction, for months on end.
Lord Howard seems to be doing a Matthew Paris as he gets older - ie. becoming more and more left-wing.
If the Conservatives want to purge their voting coalition of those with impure views on this week's theory of what voters want, I'm sure UKIP will appreciate the help.
Obama's somewhat lengthier response to Putin and record of their 90 minute telephone conversation:
President Obama spoke for 90 minutes this afternoon with President Putin of Russia about the situation in Ukraine. President Obama expressed his deep concern over Russia's clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law, including Russia’s obligations under the UN Charter, and of its 1997 military basing agreement with Ukraine, and which is inconsistent with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the Helsinki Final Act. The United States condemns Russia’s military intervention into Ukrainian territory.
"The United States calls on Russia to de-escalate tensions by withdrawing its forces back to bases in Crimea and to refrain from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine. We have consistently said that we recognize Russia’s deep historic and cultural ties to Ukraine and the need to protect the rights of ethnic Russian and minority populations within Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has made clear its commitment to protect the rights of all Ukrainians and to abide by Ukraine’s international commitments, and we will continue to urge them to do so.
"President Obama told President Putin that, if Russia has concerns about the treatment of ethnic Russian and minority populations in Ukraine, the appropriate way to address them is peacefully through direct engagement with the government of Ukraine and through the dispatch of international observers under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). As a member of both organizations, Russia would be able to participate. President Obama urged an immediate effort to initiate a dialogue between Russia and the Ukrainian government, with international facilitation, as appropriate. The United States is prepared to participate.
"President Obama made clear that Russia’s continued violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would negatively impact Russia’s standing in the international community. In the coming hours and days, the United States will urgently consult with allies and partners in the UN Security Council, the North Atlantic Council, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and with the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum. The United States will suspend upcoming participation in preparatory meetings for the G-8. Going forward, Russia’s continued violation of international law will lead to greater political and economic isolation.
"The people of Ukraine have the right to determine their own future. President Obama has directed his Administration to continue working urgently with international partners to provide support for the Ukrainian government, including urgent technical and financial assistance. Going forward, we will continue consulting closely with allies and partners, the Ukrainian government and the International Monetary Fund, to provide the new government with significant assistance to secure financial stability, to support needed reforms, to allow Ukraine to conduct successful elections, and to support Ukraine as it pursues a democratic future."
As near as you can get in diplomatic language to telling the leader of the western world to f*ck off:
Putin has everything to lose. He simply has to make gestures. The only gain he can make is if he can offer a serious olive branch at some key point. If he marches into Ukraine he'll scupper everything, but being seen as able to march into Ukraine is very helpful.
The Chinese won't want Russian forces demonstrating any rights to an extended sphere of influence too. It's unhelpful for them because of the bordering states, but also because they really don't want to be seen to have any option in contested regions. Waving the flag in the vicinity of the Japanese islands is good, but actually doing something about them isn't.
However, it may be that these big issues aren't right. If in the personal files of the Ukrainian President there is stuff that would implicate senior Russian politicians then it won't be terribly surprising if they seek cover.
British politicians? Oh, yeah, they're over there, on that rock.
The field work for the Opinium poll was 25th-28th. The new immigration statistics story seems to have hit the papers websites on the 27th. It would be interesting to know if there was any marked change before/after that.
As near as you can get in diplomatic language to telling the leader of the western world to f*ck off:
Putin has everything to lose. He simply has to make gestures. The only gain he can make is if he can offer a serious olive branch at some key point. If he marches into Ukraine he'll scupper everything, but being seen as able to march into Ukraine is very helpful.
The Chinese won't want Russian forces demonstrating any rights to an extended sphere of influence too. It's unhelpful for them because of the bordering states, but also because they really don't want to be seen to have any option in contested regions. Waving the flag in the vicinity of the Japanese islands is good, but actually doing something about them isn't.
However, it may be that these big issues aren't right. If in the personal files of the Ukrainian President there is stuff that would implicate senior Russian politicians then it won't be terribly surprising if they seek cover.
British politicians? Oh, yeah, they're over there, on that rock.
I have always expected Russia under Putin to use its forces to intervene in the Ukraine, but have been surprised at the speed with which Putin is moving (probably faster than the capabilities of his military but Y0kel is a better source for that assessment).
I don't see much fighting taking place. Maybe a few token skirmishes, but there will be no contested war.
Once Putin has realised his military objectives he will recover diplomatic ground lost by being entirely reasonable in negotiating with the international community. From Putin's point of view, Russia has to maximise its negotiating power by first optimising his negotiating strength.
Possession of territory and frustrating the development of the new Ukrainian government's relationships with the West is all.
The problem of taking a hard line with Russia and Putin on the Ukraine is that once he is in we will want him out, which means offering concessions to induce withdrawal.
Interesting story about the funding picture in Scotland. Do we know where Yes's funding is coming from? American money (apparently there are 25m Scots-Americans)?
It is an ominous sign when ITAR-TASS are publishing articles at 4:55 am (Moscow time).
And all the more ominous when the article published is an account of lawlessness in Kharkov with "extremists" attempting to occupy the region's administrative building.
The article talks of gunshots, explosions, automatic rifle fire, smashed windows, attempted "lynch trials" and a "peaceful rally in protection of the city that gathered 10 to 15 thousand people" but descended due to the actions of "far right extremists" into "bloody clashes that wounded 111 people".
Of course the beleaguered local Mayor is in despair and is indirectly calling on Moscow to help:
Kharkov Mayor Gennady Kernes also confirmed that “there is information about buses with extremists.” At the same time he demanded that law enforcement agencies should do their best to prevent Bandera extremists from entering the city.”
All this could have been written in advance or copied from Russia's copious historic files.
Sunrise will no doubt see these "buses with extremists" arrive and further unrest.
It looks very much like Russian forces are going to move into Kharkov today.
Lord Howard seems to be doing a Matthew Paris as he gets older - ie. becoming more and more left-wing.
Dealing with climate change has long been Conservative policy. It's a goal of conservatives everywhere, with the possible exception of the US, where politicians need a lot of money and politics is driven by industry lobbying in a way that most democracies aren't.
As far as the political actual strategy goes, it should be fairly obvious that a lot of the swing voters in 2015 will be people who voted LibDem in 2010. Some of them are left-wingers who went LibDem over Iraq etc and they may be hopeless for the Tories, but a fair few will be centrist people who got caught up in the Cleggasm. These people should be winnable by Con, and Cameron originally had a strategy to win them over, which he'd probably have stuck to if it they didn't have those crazy leadership rules that meant he had to be looking over his shoulder at the fringes of his party the whole time.
Or maybe instead of "had" a strategy to win the centrists over, we should say, Cameron originally _was_ a strategy to win them over. Michael Howard's strategy.
Comments
Many of the 20 MPs you call seconds class would be from the 20 constituencies that were abolished anyway, but at least parties that get decent vote nationwide would be able to represent the nations wishes
You need to dine at the Bullingdon not a food bank to understand.
They will both be sober in the morning.
The simmering ‘Boris versus George’ leadership feud burst into the open over reports that Mr Osborne had ‘delivered personally’ a message to Mr Johnson that David Cameron wants him to stand as a parliamentary candidate at the next Election.
The aim was said to be to force Mr Johnson to prove his loyalty by ‘pinning his political fate to that of the Prime Minister’. But it sparked a fierce backlash from Mr Johnson.
A well-placed source says that, when he was told Mr Osborne had approached him about the matter, the Mayor exclaimed: ‘Bull****! There has been no such conversation. They are trying to tie me in.’
Mr Johnson believes the manoeuvre is a ploy to ensure he gets equal blame if the Tories lose power, and make it easier for Mr Osborne to beat him in a subsequent race to succeed Mr Cameron.
There is a growing rift between the two men, now seen as the main candidates in the race to succeed Mr Cameron in the event of a Tory flop at the next Election.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2571103/Rage-Boris-Osborne-liar-Johnson-savage-attack-dirty-tricks-plot-No11-derail-leadership-hopes.html
A fop flop? Preposterous!
*chortle*
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/08/30/article-2407406-1B8A4305000005DC-25_634x489.jpg
Your next infraction will earn you a 7 day ban.
Understood?
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/02/06/article-1354152-0D0EB53C000005DC-519_233x437.jpg
Oh, wait...
In case anyone has missed it, no accusing new posters of being other posters
The Holyrood building was a Labour carbuncle (Donald Dewar).
The plan was a glass roof, a bit like the British Library. Sadly not to be
ROFL
The plan was a glass roof, a bit like the British Library. Sadly not to be
- "Sadly not to be" ??
Ho ho. This from a Scottish Tory!
Do you want us to remind you which party consistently opposed the campaign for a Scottish Parliament?
Given the choice between the epic disaster of Holyrood and the plan I mentioned, I am sad Waterloo Place didn't happen.
Still, I am sure your random mention of Scottish Tories will cheer up your Nat pals. They seem quite unhappy at the moment.
Huge sums of TAXPAYER'S cash 'handed to vile child-sex pervert group' by Home Office officials
The claim is that £70,000 was provided by the Home Office between 1977 and 1980. The Civil Servant who "rubber stamped" the payments is identified as Clifford Hindley.
It seems that all three main parties are tarnished by the revelations.
The funding was originally authorised by the Labour Government under Callaghan.
It was renewed by the Tories under Thatcher.
Clifford Hindley who unusually for the time was openly gay, was well known in Whitehall as a pal of Jeremy Thorpe, the ex-Liberal leader who was acquitted in a sensational murder trial
The full sorry story here: http://bit.ly/1d8cf51
This revelation, anticipated by coverage in the Mail, may go some way to explain why Dacre ran the NCCL/PIE story to burn out last week.
LOL
So your response to tantrums is incoherent rage. Most amusing and not hilarious proof at all.
http://www.nufc.co.uk/articles/20140301/club-statement-alan-pardew_2281670_3693543
BBC Sport @BBCSport · 13 mins
Newcastle issue statement saying manager Alan Pardew has been issued with a £100,000 fine and formal warning from the club #nufc #MOTD
I understand why you're always so touchy, I hate the eu ruling England so lord knows how it must feel to be Scottish with us bossing you about for the last 300 years or so
This "foreign land" line of Farage's is nicked from William Hague, isn't it? http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/28/nigel-farage-ukip-immigration-speech …
Yup.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1201755.stm
Somewhat puzzling why wee Willie Hague wasn't called a "fruitcake, loony and closet racist" for that though luckily Cammie was only a prospective MP at that time.
Twitter suggests so.
"us" Comedy Gold.
*chortle*
Nadine Dorries MP ✔ @NadineDorriesMP
Given that I wrote this two weeks ago in the MoS, I am slightly fascinated with MoS front page tomorrow... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2560408/MP-NADINE-DORRIES-Launch-secret-weapon-Dave-Get-Boris-Number-10-make-Deputy-Prime-Minister.html …
Ps I never open the links x
Can't see the festival passing off without some disruption in light of current events in the East.
* h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III_(film)
* h ttp://tu.tv/videos/zdf-tv-docudrama-world-war-3
Without Warning (1984)
* h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Without_Warning_(1994_film)
* h ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9xMTA7qhZM
Fail Safe (2000)
* h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail_Safe_(2000_TV_film)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=djqlAT-7be4
Countdown to Looking Glass (1984)
* h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countdown_to_Looking_Glass
www.youtube.com/watch?v=knSSUEdLcvg
Special Bulletin (1983)
* h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Bulletin
* h ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKY-2zkWJuo
Testament (1983)
* h ttp://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/testament-1983
* h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Testament_(film)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuOe57HG_MU
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOcVbQpUhuw
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNFPpdrn9dM
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGxbQSdua54
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ba2ITH1Wzks
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvyr_0sJrM0
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EakU0s5FxI
First Strike (1979)
* h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Strike_(1979_film)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlPEBROvR9w
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlPEBROvR9w
Yes Clydesdale @YesClydesdale 6h
New @YouGov poll puts Yes at 40% - the sixth poll in a row to put support for Yes in the 40's. http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/mar/40-yes-vote-yougov-poll-first-launch … #indyref
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/01/crimean-putin-russia-ukraine/5922731/
Lord Owen has ended his 33 year estrangement from Labour by backing Ed Miliband over party reform + donating £7.5k
You must be proud,could we see David owen rejoining labour,tell ed to keep away from his top pocket ;-)
Con 34
Lab 38
LD 9
UKIP 12
So Putins homophobia vs the homophobic fascists. It is really quite hard to pick sides with this one. Perhaps best to decide what Britains interests are before getting too deep in the mire of competing slavic nationalisms.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-owen-returns-labour-party-3197563?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
34% of voters think Harman and Dromey should apologise, while 32% believe the controversy is a storm in a teacup and they do not need to do so.
The YouGov poll found that only 5% of people believed the NCCL was right to let Pie become an affiliate, while 69% thought it was wrong.
Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft)
28/02/2014 12:08
Perhaps @bobscartoons sums it up..... pic.twitter.com/L6VGAjX62x
"Matthew D'Ancona says in his book In It Together (p. 289), based on his own direct conversations, that by the summer of 2012 Nick Clegg had come to believe that the boundary changes constituted "an existential threat" to the Liberal Democrats. In his exact words, quoted by D'Ancona, "I can't, under any circumstances, allow these boundary changes to take place before the next election. This is an existential threat.""
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jessenorman/100258267/the-masters-of-truthiness-are-spreading-ignorance-about-lords-reform/
I imagine the reality of their state's disintegration for most Ukrainians is very dull indeed. I'm rather hoping that it stays dull.
The newspapers are just trying to keep up with the TV stations in terms of sensationalism, and given they only get one shot per day they have to try even harder.
Official release by Kremlin through ITAR-TASS:
MOSCOW, March 02, /ITAR-TASS/.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. counterpart Barack Obama discussed in detail “different aspects of an extraordinary situation in Ukraine” in a telephone conversation, the Kremlin press service reported on Sunday.
The Russian president noted that Russia retained the right to protect country’s interests and Russian speakers living in Ukraine if violence spread on eastern Ukrainian regions and the Crimea. Putin stated about real threats to life and health of Russian citizens and numerous compatriots living in the country.
In reply to Obama’s concern voiced over plans on possible use of Russian armed forces in Ukraine Putin noted provocative and criminal actions by ultra-nationalistic elements that are actually encouraged by current authorities in Kiev.
The United States initiated the telephone conversation.
And in case anyone thought that the report of this call reflected the poor personal relationship between Putin and Obama, see also:
ITAR-TASS links:
Putin tells UN head Russia can’t stay aside if violence flares in Ukraine
Putin tells France president about real threats to life of Russian citizens in Ukraine
The west have so far handled this crisis with total lack of vision, strategy and understanding of where real power lies.
It looks as though Putin has committed to fast and decisive action (no doubt to be justified by some provocative incidents tomorrow).
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
You can see for yourself as the all polls trend does include all the polling companies where you can pick out YouGov's figures individually on any set date they were done.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
A source said Howard’s message was “forget the obsession with UKIP, we need to target the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and one of the ways to do this is to face down the climate sceptics”.
The sign posts are clear.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB now
YouGov VI trends in this parliament.
pic.twitter.com/gc2AvqcKXr
[Jeremiah 5:21]
Groan.
BETTER TOGETHER, the cross-party campaign to save the Union, faces a financial crisis after failing to raise even half its £7m funding target.
With 200 days to go till the Scottish referendum, the group led by Alistair Darling says it fears public opinion could swing the nationalists’ way because it cannot match the yes camp’s war chest.
That's been flattened to high heaven.
Doesn't quite cover the actual detail but the very broadest of strokes are fair enough.
Compare with this UK polling report of YouGov VI.
(which for reasons best known to themselves they still leave out the kippers)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
*that said there is nothing inherently left wing about believing in climate change.
President Obama spoke for 90 minutes this afternoon with President Putin of Russia about the situation in Ukraine. President Obama expressed his deep concern over Russia's clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law, including Russia’s obligations under the UN Charter, and of its 1997 military basing agreement with Ukraine, and which is inconsistent with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the Helsinki Final Act. The United States condemns Russia’s military intervention into Ukrainian territory.
"The United States calls on Russia to de-escalate tensions by withdrawing its forces back to bases in Crimea and to refrain from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine. We have consistently said that we recognize Russia’s deep historic and cultural ties to Ukraine and the need to protect the rights of ethnic Russian and minority populations within Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has made clear its commitment to protect the rights of all Ukrainians and to abide by Ukraine’s international commitments, and we will continue to urge them to do so.
"President Obama told President Putin that, if Russia has concerns about the treatment of ethnic Russian and minority populations in Ukraine, the appropriate way to address them is peacefully through direct engagement with the government of Ukraine and through the dispatch of international observers under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). As a member of both organizations, Russia would be able to participate. President Obama urged an immediate effort to initiate a dialogue between Russia and the Ukrainian government, with international facilitation, as appropriate. The United States is prepared to participate.
[to be continued]
"President Obama made clear that Russia’s continued violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would negatively impact Russia’s standing in the international community. In the coming hours and days, the United States will urgently consult with allies and partners in the UN Security Council, the North Atlantic Council, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and with the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum. The United States will suspend upcoming participation in preparatory meetings for the G-8. Going forward, Russia’s continued violation of international law will lead to greater political and economic isolation.
"The people of Ukraine have the right to determine their own future. President Obama has directed his Administration to continue working urgently with international partners to provide support for the Ukrainian government, including urgent technical and financial assistance. Going forward, we will continue consulting closely with allies and partners, the Ukrainian government and the International Monetary Fund, to provide the new government with significant assistance to secure financial stability, to support needed reforms, to allow Ukraine to conduct successful elections, and to support Ukraine as it pursues a democratic future."
The Chinese won't want Russian forces demonstrating any rights to an extended sphere of influence too. It's unhelpful for them because of the bordering states, but also because they really don't want to be seen to have any option in contested regions. Waving the flag in the vicinity of the Japanese islands is good, but actually doing something about them isn't.
However, it may be that these big issues aren't right. If in the personal files of the Ukrainian President there is stuff that would implicate senior Russian politicians then it won't be terribly surprising if they seek cover.
British politicians? Oh, yeah, they're over there, on that rock.
http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_25_02_2014.pdf
https://mobile.twitter.com/yowflier
I don't see much fighting taking place. Maybe a few token skirmishes, but there will be no contested war.
Once Putin has realised his military objectives he will recover diplomatic ground lost by being entirely reasonable in negotiating with the international community. From Putin's point of view, Russia has to maximise its negotiating power by first optimising his negotiating strength.
Possession of territory and frustrating the development of the new Ukrainian government's relationships with the West is all.
The problem of taking a hard line with Russia and Putin on the Ukraine is that once he is in we will want him out, which means offering concessions to induce withdrawal.
The West should have stood back and waited.
Interesting story about the funding picture in Scotland. Do we know where Yes's funding is coming from? American money (apparently there are 25m Scots-Americans)?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IEwBrJzhlg
And all the more ominous when the article published is an account of lawlessness in Kharkov with "extremists" attempting to occupy the region's administrative building.
The article talks of gunshots, explosions, automatic rifle fire, smashed windows, attempted "lynch trials" and a "peaceful rally in protection of the city that gathered 10 to 15 thousand people" but descended due to the actions of "far right extremists" into "bloody clashes that wounded 111 people".
Of course the beleaguered local Mayor is in despair and is indirectly calling on Moscow to help:
Kharkov Mayor Gennady Kernes also confirmed that “there is information about buses with extremists.” At the same time he demanded that law enforcement agencies should do their best to prevent Bandera extremists from entering the city.”
All this could have been written in advance or copied from Russia's copious historic files.
Sunrise will no doubt see these "buses with extremists" arrive and further unrest.
It looks very much like Russian forces are going to move into Kharkov today.
As far as the political actual strategy goes, it should be fairly obvious that a lot of the swing voters in 2015 will be people who voted LibDem in 2010. Some of them are left-wingers who went LibDem over Iraq etc and they may be hopeless for the Tories, but a fair few will be centrist people who got caught up in the Cleggasm. These people should be winnable by Con, and Cameron originally had a strategy to win them over, which he'd probably have stuck to if it they didn't have those crazy leadership rules that meant he had to be looking over his shoulder at the fringes of his party the whole time.
Or maybe instead of "had" a strategy to win the centrists over, we should say, Cameron originally _was_ a strategy to win them over. Michael Howard's strategy.