Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010
The fortnightly online poll by Opinium for the Observer is out and sees the LAB lead down to 5% and the party with its smallest share with the firm since 2010.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Nice to see you on, MrsB
Can't quite believe Lib Dem 10 and UKIP 19.
FPT: Mr. Cooke, the fallen angel line is interesting. It reminds me of the Lucifer/Prometheus comparison. Both were punished for giving the light of knowledge to man (the fruit of knowledge in Eden and fire in Greek mythology). But Lucifer's considered wicked, and Prometheus is seen as a force for enlightenment and progress.
I predict a small drop in Labour's lead middle of next week.
[I'm rewatching the second series of Game of Thrones].
I have not been keeping such a close eye on English politics, but that figure of 19% strikes me as quite stunning, if anywhere close to reality. Of course, under FPTP it will do them bugger all good, but this Euro election (under the D'Honte system) will be fascinating.
Personally I think PR based on party 'fairness' is a rotten system even though it would mean seats for UKIP. But it is hardly reasonable to attack the Lib Dems for benefiting under a system they have consistently opposed
Is Hunchman about? I can see the equity markets taking "a bit of a dip" on Monday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669670/Ukraine-live-Crimea-leader-appeals-to-Putin-to-help-as-Obama-warns-of-costs-to-Moscow.html
http://t.co/QEUEqRihbs
Personally I have no big opinion on voting systems., 19% and no seats would just mean even greater public hatred of the political class and system and ukip growing fasteri in my opinion. I d rather that than 10% and two seats
More than mildly unnerving methinks.
All Labour need now is for the Mail to remind us that Ed's grandfather, Sam, served in the Red Army.
(The 15 greatest of the angel-analogues were the "Powers" of Earth (Archangel-analogues) ("The Valar"), and one of the most powerful (either the most powerful or equal most powerful) was the original Dark Lord, Morgoth, Sauron's master.
Sauron was one of the greatest of the angel-analogues below the Valar ("The Maiar", or hands of the Powers).)
Morgoth's motivation was utter nihilism: he hated that there were creations not subservient to his will so wished to destroy all. Sauron's motivation was subtler: he wished to order everything for the greater good, but to do that, he just had to take control. And he admired Morgoth for the latter's decisiveness and sheer power at getting things done (the other Valar were worried about damaging God's Creation). He then fell to darkness by following Morgoth and losing sight of his destination for the journey; valuing force and fear for its ability to get things done.
(Tolkien also had Morgoth causing the Fall of Man off-scene, but referred to in an unpublished story)
Must admit that, whilst I've done more background work than I reveal in books, to keep things consistent, I haven't gone into anywhere near the same level of detail where the gods are concerned.
"The LDs get best Opinium figures since 2011"
And what exactly is that score I hear you ask .........
10% ..... yes that's right 10% LOL ..... LOL ..... LOL ..... LOL ..
They get the bunting out for 10%, and yet Mark Senior scoffs when the SNP poll 44%. Odd folk those Lib Dems.
Dare I say it, they appear to have introduced a rule change which may improve the sport?
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/9190724/f1s-strategy-group-has-approved-changes-to-the-qualifying-format
The flip side of that is the unequal distribution - which implicitly is NOT built into the seats projection - would have an impact on how all the other seats went.
The seats outcome in 2015 based on this poll sounds about right to me give or take a dozen seats for each party.
Russia March 01, 22:39 UTC+4
Irina Yarovaya reiterated the repeatedly pronounced position of Russian parliamentarians that power in Ukraine was seized by force.
The propaganda war rages.
Kippers should be encouraged that the Russian Duma is full of elected fruitcakes.
The rant in its full glory: http://bit.ly/1mNeOzR
In terms of English voters that must be near 40%
Are you suggesting that Sam Miliband was one of those "KGB Colonels" instead?
Source: Ralph Miliband: Biography by John Simkin
Sam Miliband, a former member of the Red Army, had left Poland after the First World War and became a leather worker in Belgium. His mother, Renia Miliband, travelled around selling women's hats.
I wouldn't be surprised if the "women's hats" bit was more damaging to Labour's cause.
Perhaps we should be calling EM, Ed Milliner.
Whether war would be justified is questionable but there really ought to be some serious diplomatic consequences if an invasion / occupation / unilaterally recognised declaration of independence and alliance occurs. The next G8 is scheduled to take place in Sochi in June. The withdrawal of the other seven and a G7 meeting elsewhere - indeed, the reversion of the G8 to the G7 - might be a start.
Unspoofable.
Comrade!
When an American diplomat remarked to Stalin how grateful he must be to see Russian troops in Berlin in 1945, he reportedly replied: "Tsar Alexander reached Paris*."
* in 1814, when Napoleon first abdicated.
I do wonder if the Lib Dems might suddenly discover the merits of AMS, which is kinder to parties in the 7-15% range.
In Scotland it is just 47% for "the main two" (sic) and 54% for "the main three" (sic) Westminster parties.
If the decay is far gone in England, it is terminal in Scotland.
USUSSR
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces
Add in the other European countries that might get drawn in, and Russia (on its own) looks rather overstretched in purely military terms. But history shows that such comparisons are often false, from Napoleon's adventures in Russia, to the Russians in Afghanistan. For this reason, the row in the table that means the most is the last one.
(*) I'd do this in a yellow table if I could be bothered...
Will anyone want their son to fight and die to preserve the lands East of the Dnieper for a government of dubious legality? I appreciate that it is often said that Milliband Snr was in the Red army, but it seems actual evidence is thin, though possibly at least one sibling did. As a Jewish Marxist he may have been person non Grata in Pilduskis Poland whatever his military role. Much of what is now Western Ukraine was Polish at the time.
Lab: 215
Con: 183
UKIP: 120
LD: 63
Others: 69
1. Provoke Russia into stepping up its military alertness
2. Pledge unlimited support for whoever happens to be the President of Ukraine at the moment
3. Ramp up the rhetoric as Russian and Ukrainian forces clash, demand NATO comes in to defend the freedom and democracy lovers in the Ukraine
4. Get Britain nuked
5. Retain power of whatever is left
See, crossover is coming! Our Trident D3s crossing over the pole one way, and Russia's SS-18s crossing the other way....
The more interesting thing from Opinium is the kippers bump up from 17 to 19 simply because Opinium have had them rock steady on 17 for their last four polls and from the end of December.
Way too soon and too small for it to be anything other than interesting and worth keeping an eye on of course, but it would be somewhat surprising if Cameron's Cast Iron Immigration Pledge exploding in his face had no effect at all.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsokGIeQFFI
LOL
My solution would be to have 630 constituencies and allocate the other 20 seats on national vote share. Something like one seat for each five percent. So if the results were as this poll suggested, ukip could choose 3 candidates to represent them in the House of Commons and their constituency would be 19% of the country spread about
If we get it, I hope they have a proper building instead of some poncey modern structure.
Dr Strangelove
Threads
By Dawn's Early Light
The War Game
The Day After
Fail Safe
On The Beach
Planet of the Apes
For me, it's the "Don't Knows" who did vote last time that are the muddying factor. If these - who never fully defected from who they supported last time - start trickling back as the reality of the oncoming election looms, we will see some shift in the polls. And not to Labour's advantage.
It's horrible,badly built and ruinously expensive to maintain.There's a growing movement calling for its demolition.
Only been to Scotland once, but I'm sure Edinburgh must have splendid architecture that can be used as inspiration for a better building.
Using the same turnout 36% of the eligible electorate would have collectively supported Labour or Tory and just 40% of those registered to vote. Similarly only 41% of those eligible to vote support the the three establishment parties collectively and 47% of those registered to vote. Some might say the post war consensus no longer has a mandate.
Anyway the vote totals based on 2010's turnout for such vote shares are not happy reading for the establishment parties.
Con 8.6 million
Lab 10.1 million
LD 3 million
Oblivion
Book of Eli
Independence Day
Sun comes out is bad news for Ed Miliband
Two plus Two equaling four is bad news for Ed Miliband
Marginal voter losing the tv remote is bad news for Ed Miliband
Floating voter finding lost sock in the fridge is bad news for Ed Miliband
Labour majority will be bad news for Ed Miliband
Curtains clashing with your wallpaper is bad news for Ed Miliband
In other news strange how the last Populus poll was given the full squirrel treatment on here and produce a full two posts, whilst todays Opinium gave us a bit of excitement among the usual suspects, despite both having the same Labour lead percentage.
Show me the crossover......Show me the crossover!
Then we have interweaved and interchanging melodies in harmony with each other as the Ainur do just that to create a greater Music, and all is going well.
Then Melkor decides to interweave matters that aren't actually compatible with the foundation that Eru laid down (as if he's trying to use a different key, cadence and entire fundamental theme to everyone else, not just add to and feed off of it - like jamming with someone who's actively trying to screw up the music), not in accord with the theme itself, rather than simply adorn it with his own imagination in harmony with the others, and in the discord, some start to attune their music with his entirely new theme (which is incompatible with the original overarching theme), causing the original melodies to founder.
After the new themes were introduced by Iluvatar to combat this, you have two themes battling each other; Melkors "essayed to drown out the other music by the violence of its voice" (but failing as the strongest blasts are woven into Iluvatar's melody).
So it's not because he amended the music, but specifically tried to alter it "in [Eru's] despite" and make it all in accordance with his own will alone.
The SNP wanted the old Royal High School on Calton Hill. It was Mr Dewar and Labour (then as ever run from London) who refused to accept such common sense and who made the disastrous key decisions well before the Scottish Parliament was even convened. It was only the expenses scandals at Westminster, and the fact that Holyrood had got its act sorted out well before, that remedied that in terms of public perception.
To be fair to the architect, he was dying of a brain tumour, I believe.
What are your views on Portcullis House, in terms of architecture, sustainability and budget for function (as an office block for only a minority of Westminster MPs)?
Mail on Sunday front page – “Rage of Boris at ‘Osborne the liar’” #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/EgGLn6Y5nv
Erm,were you on a train with nigel farage recently by any chance?
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/93808/the_mail_on_sunday_sunday_2nd_march_2014.html
Yes 9/2 (Betfair)
No 1/4 (Hills)
Arb anybody?