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A Crime of a Law – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 1 in General
imageA Crime of a Law – politicalbetting.com

“You do not examine legislation in the light of the benefits it will convey if properly administered but in the light of the wrongs it would do and the harms it would cause if improperly administered.” (LBJ)

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,888
    Happy Easter Monday everyone x
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,198
    edited April 1
    For its front page April Fools story, the Financial Times warns about AI hype ;);)

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,377
    Is the new Scottish act an April fools?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810

    Is the new Scottish act an April fools?

    We are not laughing at it for sure, the fools are Useless and his mob of wrong un's ruining the country.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    So how does this affect people in the U.K. who make a comment that can be read in Scotland ? I had read on legal twitter a comment made anywhere that could be read in Scotland is reportable.not quite sure the Scottish police will be popping south of the border to interview people being mean on twitter but it’s interesting.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,377
    If Scottish police come down and start menacing English people can we call the English police?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    edited April 1

    If Scottish police come down and start menacing English people can we call the English police?

    AIUI before operating in an area controlled by another police service they would have to contact that police service and explain what they were doing.

    So if they turn up without the aforesaid English police yes, you should call them.

    Edit - also, it occurs to me that if they attempt that they will be making laws for England, which would breach a reserved matter. So either they must have given assurances on this point before the bill was submitted for Royal Assent, or they might find it overturned in the courts on a different point from the one @Cyclefree raises.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,043
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/01/migrant-workers-greater-risk-modern-slavery-brexit-research

    Brexit has increased the risks of worker exploitation (who could have guessed a project backed enthusiastically by dark money and rogue capital would have had this effect, eh?)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,479
    It seems extraordinary for a party leader to publicly say this about an MP in a rival party.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Bedtime reading for everyone’s favourite ramper of the Orange Haired One, if he still comes here:

    https://www.salon.com/2023/12/10/trump-derangement-syndrome-is-real--but-its-not-what-they-say-it-is/

    I wonder if The Kitchen Cabinet will ever realise that his hurling around of epithets like ‘fascist’or accusing his many critics of mental illness are a sign that he himself has a screw loose?

    Trump of course has not so much a screw as a whole houseful of them loose, judging by his latest tirades on Truth Social…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Foxy said:

    It seems extraordinary for a party leader to publicly say this about an MP in a rival party.


    Especially if he’s hoping to recruit him for ReFuk.
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 120
    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,043
    Foxy said:

    It seems extraordinary for a party leader to publicly say this about an MP in a rival party.


    If Reform ever surplant the Tories as the main party on the right I suspect many of us will say come back the Conservative and Unionist Party, all is forgiven.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    ’Alexa, show me what electoral suicide looks like.’
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Why am I suddenly reminded of Margaret Beckett nominating Corbyn?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,191

    Foxy said:

    It seems extraordinary for a party leader to publicly say this about an MP in a rival party.


    If Reform ever surplant the Tories as the main party on the right I suspect many of us will say come back the Conservative and Unionist Party, all is forgiven.
    Under PR, they'd be most welcome...
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,191
    edited April 1
    Breaking - "SWIMMING LANES INTRODUCED TO FACILITATE FREE CROSS-SOLENT CROSSINGS"

    https://www.islandecho.co.uk/swimming-lanes-introduced-to-facilitate-free-cross-solent-crossings/

    "REVOLUTIONARY £2.2M 'BANANA FLOAT FLEET' TO REPLACE TROUBLED ISLE OF WIGHT FLOATING BRIDGE"

    https://www.iwradio.co.uk/news/local-community-news/revolutionary-2-2m-banana-float-fleet-to-replace-troubled-isle-of-wight-floating-bridge/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,581
    Dreadful and impractical law. Sheer stubbornness to pretend no issue and have passed it.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,958
    Wings over Scotland has received detailed legal opinion regarding the Hate Crime Bill. https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/
    What do you think of the opinion, lawyers? @Cyclefree, @DavidL, @TSE and others?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,134
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking - "SWIMMING LANES INTRODUCED TO FACILITATE FREE CROSS-SOLENT CROSSINGS"

    https://www.islandecho.co.uk/swimming-lanes-introduced-to-facilitate-free-cross-solent-crossings/

    "REVOLUTIONARY £2.2M 'BANANA FLOAT FLEET' TO REPLACE TROUBLED ISLE OF WIGHT FLOATING BRIDGE"

    https://www.iwradio.co.uk/news/local-community-news/revolutionary-2-2m-banana-float-fleet-to-replace-troubled-isle-of-wight-floating-bridge/

    This is going to be an interesting April Fool's day, in which we try to filter the "trying to be funny" lies from the usual barrage of lies.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017

    Wings over Scotland has received detailed legal opinion regarding the Hate Crime Bill. https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/
    What do you think of the opinion, lawyers? @Cyclefree, @DavidL, @TSE and others?

    The Hate Monster as an avatar 😂
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    In your magnificent shoes I would be more worried about mobs of infuriated flag shaggers protesting about being compared to Humza Yousaf.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,581
    With any legislation you have to ask what problem is it aiming to solve. Then figure out whether it is in fact a problem at all and, if so, does the legislation address it, and even if it does what is the cost of that? Is it disproportionate, have unintended effects etc?

    It does not feel as though this passes muster, as the general defences seem to come down to 'we must do something' and 'it'll be fine, stop worrying'.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    They’ll be waiting for you to cross the border.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    This one is excellent:

    https://twitter.com/EdinburghTrams/status/1774693178769072537?t=2SLjD_GzhLn1zMGRq7PKzA&s=19

    (Edinburgh Trams are much maligned for having no ability to remove cars blocking the tram tracks - the council only have a crane which would be dangerous to use under the power lines)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Fortunately, Mogg is not 'all Tories.'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    Taz said:

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    They’ll be waiting for you to cross the border.
    I’m in Scotland in September.

    I am staying at Trump’s hotel.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    kle4 said:

    With any legislation you have to ask what problem is it aiming to solve. Then figure out whether it is in fact a problem at all and, if so, does the legislation address it, and even if it does what is the cost of that? Is it disproportionate, have unintended effects etc?

    It does not feel as though this passes muster, as the general defences seem to come down to 'we must do something' and 'it'll be fine, stop worrying'.

    I’ve been trying to find articles supporting it to see what the positives are.

    This was the only once I could find. The law could save lives apparently.

    https://metro.co.uk/2024/03/21/scotlands-new-hate-crime-law-isnt-a-threat-free-speech-save-life-20506135/
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,958

    Taz said:

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    They’ll be waiting for you to cross the border.
    I’m in Scotland in September.

    I am staying at Trump’s hotel.
    I hope you haven’t paid in advance, unless with a credit card.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017

    Taz said:

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    They’ll be waiting for you to cross the border.
    I’m in Scotland in September.

    I am staying at Trump’s hotel.
    Lock him up
    Lock him up
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Eabhal said:

    This one is excellent:

    https://twitter.com/EdinburghTrams/status/1774693178769072537?t=2SLjD_GzhLn1zMGRq7PKzA&s=19

    (Edinburgh Trams are much maligned for having no ability to remove cars blocking the tram tracks - the council only have a crane which would be dangerous to use under the power lines)

    They had the same problem in Weymouth, on the old Harbour Tramway. There's a car being moved out of the way by hand in this video:

    https://youtu.be/x6XEVvVRB_4?si=2B4RbtkXXaBMXNJe
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215

    Taz said:

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    They’ll be waiting for you to cross the border.
    I’m in Scotland in September.

    I am staying at Trump’s hotel.
    I hope you haven’t paid in advance, unless with a credit card.
    It’s on my work credit card.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    Eabhal said:

    This one is excellent:

    https://twitter.com/EdinburghTrams/status/1774693178769072537?t=2SLjD_GzhLn1zMGRq7PKzA&s=19

    (Edinburgh Trams are much maligned for having no ability to remove cars blocking the tram tracks - the council only have a crane which would be dangerous to use under the power lines)

    Ah, a variation on Babbage's most famous invention. ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090

    Taz said:

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    They’ll be waiting for you to cross the border.
    I’m in Scotland in September.

    I am staying at Trump’s hotel.
    I hope you haven’t paid in advance, unless with a credit card.
    With Trump now being allowed to pay peanuts to appeal, and the appeal not due to be rostered before September, he should be OK.

    Unless, of course, Trump runs out of cash some other way and defaults on his mortgages, but the adoring MAGA worshippers pumping cash into his Truth Social nonsense seems to preclude that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,958

    Taz said:

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    They’ll be waiting for you to cross the border.
    I’m in Scotland in September.

    I am staying at Trump’s hotel.
    I hope you haven’t paid in advance, unless with a credit card.
    It’s on my work credit card.
    Ah, a tax deductible expense. I hope you’ve booked a suite.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    A bad and pointless law. Sadly, the constitutional divide means many will vote for SNP, regardless of their behaviour.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    I see labour abandoning its pledge to nationalise water companies.

    Privatisation is not so much the issue than lax regulation and allowing these companies to be acquired and effectively taken private.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    A country that continually lives beyond its means inevitably sees more and more of its assets bought by foreigners in exchange for current goods and services.

    Those assets sold to foreigners can include businesses as well as government bonds, Mayfair mansions and football clubs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Taz said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    I see labour abandoning its pledge to nationalise water companies.

    Privatisation is not so much the issue than lax regulation and allowing these companies to be acquired and effectively taken private.
    Lax regulation is certainly an issue. As is shockingly inept, possibly criminal, mismanagement. As is the age of our water infrastructure, much of it Victorian. As is the enormous growth of the population. As is, silly though their claims may sound, bad weather, given most houses built before the 1990s discharge rainwater to the sewers and not to soakaways.

    There is plenty of blame to go around with what's happening. But we are where we are.

    My big worry is I don't see any serious thought given to how we really improve matters. Nationalisation may be the answer, but given the dismal performance of historical and indeed current nationalised water entities that seems unlikely. Local authority management is pretty much out both due to the size of these companies (with rare exceptions like South Staffs or Northumbrian Water) and the impending implosion of multiple local authorities.

    So some radical and imaginative thinking, using in-depth knowledge of what's going on and a clear-eyed understanding of what we want is required.

    Alas, we are stuck with Sunak and Starmer being sniped at by followers of Mogg and Corbyn.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    He's right on Begum.

    He's kind of missing the point on Thames Water. First off, "wipe out the share and bondholders" clearly ought to happen. Whether that's enough to create a viable company going forward is another matter. Secondly, the people who loaded the company up with debt to pay themselves big dividends left the scene years ago. And apparently setting a time bomb ticking under a major utility is OK.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    edited April 1

    Wings over Scotland has received detailed legal opinion regarding the Hate Crime Bill. https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/
    What do you think of the opinion, lawyers? @Cyclefree, @DavidL, @TSE and others?

    I suspect this is a law that is going to be more honoured in the breach than in the observance.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    Another 10 point deduction incoming for Everton. I really do fear for them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/mar/31/evertons-financial-woes-continue-as-loss-doubles-to-89m

    Going concern issues as well.

    Moshiri hasn't provided any "letter of support" regarding Going Concern in the latest Everton accounts

    https://twitter.com/slbsn/status/1774508830984200307
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816
    Morning everyone :)

    Belated Easter greetings to all and another day which has dawned fine in my part of the world but whether it will remain as pleasant is open to question.

    As usual, I'm about 16 threads behind the curve so a quick catch up - anyone who thinks MRP seat projections are a sound basis for political betting investments probably also thinks a morning dip in the Thames a nice healthy way to start the day.

    At the moment, credibility is staring down reality. The polling figures are there and consistent and yet no one seems quite to believe or trust them. I'm all for healthy scepticism but poll after poll suggests Labour are well ahead (15-20 points) and the combined Lab/LD/Green number of 58-60 sits in front of the Con/Ref number of 35-37.

    What of the Reform vote? As @Sean_Fear pointed out, and according to R&W, roughly two thirds of that share is 2019 Conservative voters with the rest coming from ex-Brexit party supporters and those who didn't vote last time.

    Assuming Reform are on 12%, IF all the former Conservatives returned to the fold, you'd see Reform back to 4% and the Conservatives at 31-33% (in other words more akin to the Conservative-Referendum split in 1997).

    However, all the evidence shows only one third of the Reform vote would go back to the Conservatives in the event of there being no Reform candidate in their constituency (as far as I am aware, Tice intends to run a full slate of candidates) so that would leave Reform on 8% and the Conservatives in the high twenties.

    Roughly a sixth of the Reform vote say they would vote Labour absent a Reform candidate with half staying at home so this notion a wave of ex-Reform voters will come over the hill to save the Tories doesn't stand up to evidence at this time. Indeed, I'd argue the leadership of Reform (Tice, Farage) are essentially small state tax cutting Thatcherites yet the Reform voters are more in the Boris Johnson mould of wanting to see plenty of public money in WWC areas. That will probably be what does for Reform after the election when I suspect some of the leadership will move back over to a Badenoch or Braverman-led opposition.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    A police source this morning tells Wings that by just 8am on Day 1, a single division has already received more than a dozen Hate Crime complaints about Humza Yousaf's "WHITE!" speech 😄
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    I see labour abandoning its pledge to nationalise water companies.

    Privatisation is not so much the issue than lax regulation and allowing these companies to be acquired and effectively taken private.
    Lax regulation is certainly an issue. As is shockingly inept, possibly criminal, mismanagement. As is the age of our water infrastructure, much of it Victorian. As is the enormous growth of the population. As is, silly though their claims may sound, bad weather, given most houses built before the 1990s discharge rainwater to the sewers and not to soakaways.

    There is plenty of blame to go around with what's happening. But we are where we are.

    My big worry is I don't see any serious thought given to how we really improve matters. Nationalisation may be the answer, but given the dismal performance of historical and indeed current nationalised water entities that seems unlikely. Local authority management is pretty much out both due to the size of these companies (with rare exceptions like South Staffs or Northumbrian Water) and the impending implosion of multiple local authorities.

    So some radical and imaginative thinking, using in-depth knowledge of what's going on and a clear-eyed understanding of what we want is required.

    Alas, we are stuck with Sunak and Starmer being sniped at by followers of Mogg and Corbyn.
    Blocked drains is another issue. The ones on the gateshead flyover have been clogged for at least a couple of years. There are plenty round here clogged up.

    We just have to hope that Starmer gets sufficient majority not to be beholden to the hard left. I feel little enthusiasm for labour, which is why I won’t vote next time, however Rachel Reeves does seem to be competent.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    stodge said:

    Morning everyone :)

    Belated Easter greetings to all and another day which has dawned fine in my part of the world but whether it will remain as pleasant is open to question.

    As usual, I'm about 16 threads behind the curve so a quick catch up - anyone who thinks MRP seat projections are a sound basis for political betting investments probably also thinks a morning dip in the Thames a nice healthy way to start the day.

    At the moment, credibility is staring down reality. The polling figures are there and consistent and yet no one seems quite to believe or trust them. I'm all for healthy scepticism but poll after poll suggests Labour are well ahead (15-20 points) and the combined Lab/LD/Green number of 58-60 sits in front of the Con/Ref number of 35-37.

    What of the Reform vote? As @Sean_Fear pointed out, and according to R&W, roughly two thirds of that share is 2019 Conservative voters with the rest coming from ex-Brexit party supporters and those who didn't vote last time.

    Assuming Reform are on 12%, IF all the former Conservatives returned to the fold, you'd see Reform back to 4% and the Conservatives at 31-33% (in other words more akin to the Conservative-Referendum split in 1997).

    However, all the evidence shows only one third of the Reform vote would go back to the Conservatives in the event of there being no Reform candidate in their constituency (as far as I am aware, Tice intends to run a full slate of candidates) so that would leave Reform on 8% and the Conservatives in the high twenties.

    Roughly a sixth of the Reform vote say they would vote Labour absent a Reform candidate with half staying at home so this notion a wave of ex-Reform voters will come over the hill to save the Tories doesn't stand up to evidence at this time. Indeed, I'd argue the leadership of Reform (Tice, Farage) are essentially small state tax cutting Thatcherites yet the Reform voters are more in the Boris Johnson mould of wanting to see plenty of public money in WWC areas. That will probably be what does for Reform after the election when I suspect some of the leadership will move back over to a Badenoch or Braverman-led opposition.

    Farage is a Trussite not a Thatcherite.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    A country that continually lives beyond its means inevitably sees more and more of its assets bought by foreigners in exchange for current goods and services.

    Those assets sold to foreigners can include businesses as well as government bonds, Mayfair mansions and football clubs.
    I don't disagree and in a free market that's one of the consequences. I recall the Thatcher Government was enthusiastic about the trading aspects of the Single European Act and indeed free marketers should support the four freedoms.

    The problem is economic liberalism bumps up against cultual protectionism - many would prefer to buy British from British owned companies though we all know if the quality comes from abroad, we'll buy the import every time.

    That isn't the end of cultural protectionism - the free market in goods and services is one thing but the free market in people is something else. People have always moved to where the money is and it was an inevitable consequence of freedom of movement people from poorer parts of Europe would move to the richer parts. There's economic sense in that just as there is for richer people in the north of Europe to move to the sunnier climes of the south bringing their capital to invigorate the local economies.

    As to "living beyond its means", again, I don't disagree but where do you start in terms of reducing the deficit and returning to a balanced budget? Some on the Conservative side actively supported borrowing at low interest rates (thougn that's kicking an ever bigger can down the road) but how do you bring the public finances back?

    Do we cut spending, raise taxes or both? What do we cut - apparently health, welfare and defence are off limits (not sure why) and we can't raise taxes without howls of anguish? Is it time for Land Value Taxation or do we continue to tax consumption?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    I see labour abandoning its pledge to nationalise water companies.

    Privatisation is not so much the issue than lax regulation and allowing these companies to be acquired and effectively taken private.
    Lax regulation is certainly an issue. As is shockingly inept, possibly criminal, mismanagement. As is the age of our water infrastructure, much of it Victorian. As is the enormous growth of the population. As is, silly though their claims may sound, bad weather, given most houses built before the 1990s discharge rainwater to the sewers and not to soakaways.

    There is plenty of blame to go around with what's happening. But we are where we are.

    My big worry is I don't see any serious thought given to how we really improve matters. Nationalisation may be the answer, but given the dismal performance of historical and indeed current nationalised water entities that seems unlikely. Local authority management is pretty much out both due to the size of these companies (with rare exceptions like South Staffs or Northumbrian Water) and the impending implosion of multiple local authorities.

    So some radical and imaginative thinking, using in-depth knowledge of what's going on and a clear-eyed understanding of what we want is required.

    Alas, we are stuck with Sunak and Starmer being sniped at by followers of Mogg and Corbyn.
    Blocked drains is another issue. The ones on the gateshead flyover have been clogged for at least a couple of years. There are plenty round here clogged up.

    We just have to hope that Starmer gets sufficient majority not to be beholden to the hard left. I feel little enthusiasm for labour, which is why I won’t vote next time, however Rachel Reeves does seem to be competent.
    That's already a local authority matter, not a water company matter.

    I can't help but feel blocked drains on the national road network, irritating though they are, probably help water companies by diverting water away from the sewage network.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    Minister Hollinrake disgracing himself once again on LBC .

    Defending the legislation on homelessness and admitting he hasn’t even read it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090

    Wings over Scotland has received detailed legal opinion regarding the Hate Crime Bill. https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/
    What do you think of the opinion, lawyers? @Cyclefree, @DavidL, @TSE and others?

    I suspect this is a law that is going to be more honoured in the breach than in the observance.
    We call those a 'Donald law.'
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    Elon Musks April Fool. Don’t give up the day job !!

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774702734047883410?s=61
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816
    Taz said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    I see labour abandoning its pledge to nationalise water companies.

    Privatisation is not so much the issue than lax regulation and allowing these companies to be acquired and effectively taken private.
    Again, I don't disagree. The likes of OFCOM and OFWHAT really are toothless but who put the regulatory regime in place and on what basis?

    Regulation is a dirty word (apposite in terms of Thames Water however). For example, I'm a big supporter of an active and properly regulated public and private property rental market. We need a strong rental sector as people's circumstances vary and not everyone wants or can afford to buy outright. Renting is a step forward for many but the private rental sector is a disgrace with rapacious landlords encouraging a new generation of slums on top of which the monstrosity of HMOs where in London 12-20 people live in a 3-bedroom semi which is effectively dormitory accommodation for construction workers from all over the world.

    Yes, it's not slavery but it's not a dignified or civilised way for people to live in the 21st century.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Taz said:

    Elon Musks April Fool. Don’t give up the day job !!

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774702734047883410?s=61

    He seems very animated about it.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,327

    Another 10 point deduction incoming for Everton. I really do fear for them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/mar/31/evertons-financial-woes-continue-as-loss-doubles-to-89m

    Going concern issues as well.

    Moshiri hasn't provided any "letter of support" regarding Going Concern in the latest Everton accounts

    https://twitter.com/slbsn/status/1774508830984200307

    The people trying to buy them also don't exactly seem on the level.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a225cb7d-ccdd-495d-b7f1-a8124129b8bf
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    I see labour abandoning its pledge to nationalise water companies.

    Privatisation is not so much the issue than lax regulation and allowing these companies to be acquired and effectively taken private.
    Lax regulation is certainly an issue. As is shockingly inept, possibly criminal, mismanagement. As is the age of our water infrastructure, much of it Victorian. As is the enormous growth of the population. As is, silly though their claims may sound, bad weather, given most houses built before the 1990s discharge rainwater to the sewers and not to soakaways.

    There is plenty of blame to go around with what's happening. But we are where we are.

    My big worry is I don't see any serious thought given to how we really improve matters. Nationalisation may be the answer, but given the dismal performance of historical and indeed current nationalised water entities that seems unlikely. Local authority management is pretty much out both due to the size of these companies (with rare exceptions like South Staffs or Northumbrian Water) and the impending implosion of multiple local authorities.

    So some radical and imaginative thinking, using in-depth knowledge of what's going on and a clear-eyed understanding of what we want is required.

    Alas, we are stuck with Sunak and Starmer being sniped at by followers of Mogg and Corbyn.
    Blocked drains is another issue. The ones on the gateshead flyover have been clogged for at least a couple of years. There are plenty round here clogged up.

    We just have to hope that Starmer gets sufficient majority not to be beholden to the hard left. I feel little enthusiasm for labour, which is why I won’t vote next time, however Rachel Reeves does seem to be competent.
    That's already a local authority matter, not a water company matter.

    I can't help but feel blocked drains on the national road network, irritating though they are, probably help water companies by diverting water away from the sewage network.
    I don’t recall claiming it was anything to do with the water companies. Just a contributing factor as is, apparently, concreting over lawns.

    Blocked drains certainly do us cyclists no favours.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,029
    edited April 1
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Some of the most vociferous critics of the current iteration of the Conservative Party on PB are generally sympathetic to the cause of "genuine Conservatism". You shouldn't blame them when scoundrels have stolen the Party.

    Also you are clearly yet to read a BJO post.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,557

    Wings over Scotland has received detailed legal opinion regarding the Hate Crime Bill. https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/
    What do you think of the opinion, lawyers? @Cyclefree, @DavidL, @TSE and others?

    I suspect this is a law that is going to be more honoured in the breach than in the observance.
    What's with the "Yousaf Humza", btw? And the stray 'Humza', presumably? A deliberate mistake to see if anyone spots it?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    stodge said:

    Morning everyone :)

    Belated Easter greetings to all and another day which has dawned fine in my part of the world but whether it will remain as pleasant is open to question.

    As usual, I'm about 16 threads behind the curve so a quick catch up - anyone who thinks MRP seat projections are a sound basis for political betting investments probably also thinks a morning dip in the Thames a nice healthy way to start the day.

    At the moment, credibility is staring down reality. The polling figures are there and consistent and yet no one seems quite to believe or trust them. I'm all for healthy scepticism but poll after poll suggests Labour are well ahead (15-20 points) and the combined Lab/LD/Green number of 58-60 sits in front of the Con/Ref number of 35-37.

    What of the Reform vote? As @Sean_Fear pointed out, and according to R&W, roughly two thirds of that share is 2019 Conservative voters with the rest coming from ex-Brexit party supporters and those who didn't vote last time.

    Assuming Reform are on 12%, IF all the former Conservatives returned to the fold, you'd see Reform back to 4% and the Conservatives at 31-33% (in other words more akin to the Conservative-Referendum split in 1997).

    However, all the evidence shows only one third of the Reform vote would go back to the Conservatives in the event of there being no Reform candidate in their constituency (as far as I am aware, Tice intends to run a full slate of candidates) so that would leave Reform on 8% and the Conservatives in the high twenties.

    Roughly a sixth of the Reform vote say they would vote Labour absent a Reform candidate with half staying at home so this notion a wave of ex-Reform voters will come over the hill to save the Tories doesn't stand up to evidence at this time. Indeed, I'd argue the leadership of Reform (Tice, Farage) are essentially small state tax cutting Thatcherites yet the Reform voters are more in the Boris Johnson mould of wanting to see plenty of public money in WWC areas. That will probably be what does for Reform after the election when I suspect some of the leadership will move back over to a Badenoch or Braverman-led opposition.

    MRP can't get the Lib Dems right, because there's no way of incorporating their "40 simultaneous by-elections" style of campaign. But what it can do is say that the Conservatives currently look set to lose big, and these are the sort of places those losses might happen.

    The other issue with the presentation of MRP is that a tight win gets presented as a win. Much like FPTP. This looks like a neat quick'n'dirty kludge;

    Across the trio of MRPs released this year, only 460 (70%) seats have held the same projected winner on all three, with nearly a third showing a different winner on at least one (shown in paler tones) and seven even producing different results each time (light grey).

    https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1774502392282661255
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,029
    nico679 said:

    Minister Hollinrake disgracing himself once again on LBC .

    Defending the legislation on homelessness and admitting he hasn’t even read it.

    Homeless people don't vote so no harm done, Onwards and upwards.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,557
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    I see labour abandoning its pledge to nationalise water companies.

    Privatisation is not so much the issue than lax regulation and allowing these companies to be acquired and effectively taken private.
    Lax regulation is certainly an issue. As is shockingly inept, possibly criminal, mismanagement. As is the age of our water infrastructure, much of it Victorian. As is the enormous growth of the population. As is, silly though their claims may sound, bad weather, given most houses built before the 1990s discharge rainwater to the sewers and not to soakaways.

    There is plenty of blame to go around with what's happening. But we are where we are.

    My big worry is I don't see any serious thought given to how we really improve matters. Nationalisation may be the answer, but given the dismal performance of historical and indeed current nationalised water entities that seems unlikely. Local authority management is pretty much out both due to the size of these companies (with rare exceptions like South Staffs or Northumbrian Water) and the impending implosion of multiple local authorities.

    So some radical and imaginative thinking, using in-depth knowledge of what's going on and a clear-eyed understanding of what we want is required.

    Alas, we are stuck with Sunak and Starmer being sniped at by followers of Mogg and Corbyn.
    Blocked drains is another issue. The ones on the gateshead flyover have been clogged for at least a couple of years. There are plenty round here clogged up.

    We just have to hope that Starmer gets sufficient majority not to be beholden to the hard left. I feel little enthusiasm for labour, which is why I won’t vote next time, however Rachel Reeves does seem to be competent.
    That's already a local authority matter, not a water company matter.

    I can't help but feel blocked drains on the national road network, irritating though they are, probably help water companies by diverting water away from the sewage network.
    I don’t recall claiming it was anything to do with the water companies. Just a contributing factor as is, apparently, concreting over lawns.

    Blocked drains certainly do us cyclists no favours.
    I have to report the local ones every now and then on the local council reporting form on their website - especially if a messy builder has been working uphill from the drain in question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    MJW said:

    Another 10 point deduction incoming for Everton. I really do fear for them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/mar/31/evertons-financial-woes-continue-as-loss-doubles-to-89m

    Going concern issues as well.

    Moshiri hasn't provided any "letter of support" regarding Going Concern in the latest Everton accounts

    https://twitter.com/slbsn/status/1774508830984200307

    The people trying to buy them also don't exactly seem on the level.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a225cb7d-ccdd-495d-b7f1-a8124129b8bf
    There's so many red flags about 777, they will make Hicks & Gillett look like good owners.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    A country that continually lives beyond its means inevitably sees more and more of its assets bought by foreigners in exchange for current goods and services.

    Those assets sold to foreigners can include businesses as well as government bonds, Mayfair mansions and football clubs.
    I don't disagree and in a free market that's one of the consequences. I recall the Thatcher Government was enthusiastic about the trading aspects of the Single European Act and indeed free marketers should support the four freedoms.

    The problem is economic liberalism bumps up against cultual protectionism - many would prefer to buy British from British owned companies though we all know if the quality comes from abroad, we'll buy the import every time.

    That isn't the end of cultural protectionism - the free market in goods and services is one thing but the free market in people is something else. People have always moved to where the money is and it was an inevitable consequence of freedom of movement people from poorer parts of Europe would move to the richer parts. There's economic sense in that just as there is for richer people in the north of Europe to move to the sunnier climes of the south bringing their capital to invigorate the local economies.

    As to "living beyond its means", again, I don't disagree but where do you start in terms of reducing the deficit and returning to a balanced budget? Some on the Conservative side actively supported borrowing at low interest rates (thougn that's kicking an ever bigger can down the road) but how do you bring the public finances back?

    Do we cut spending, raise taxes or both? What do we cut - apparently health, welfare and defence are off limits (not sure why) and we can't raise taxes without howls of anguish? Is it time for Land Value Taxation or do we continue to tax consumption?
    The rich and consumers will have to pay more tax.
    The poor and old will have to receive less.
    The workers will have to work longer and increase their productivity.

    The proportions of pain between the various groups will be where the debate is but there will be many unhappy whatever the outcome.

    As to Thatcher and the development of the single market that was a time when the UK ran a trade surplus, had net emigration and the single market was a much smaller group of countries with fewer economic differences between them.

    How she would have viewed the larger, more varied and more chaotic current global economy I don't know.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    Ugh. The seizure of phones, computers, etc, to investigate a report of an offence could be used to make an individual's life impossible. And all this following anonymous crime reports - think how easy it would be for an abusive ex to harass someone by making vexatious reports - anonymously.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816

    stodge said:

    Morning everyone :)

    Belated Easter greetings to all and another day which has dawned fine in my part of the world but whether it will remain as pleasant is open to question.

    As usual, I'm about 16 threads behind the curve so a quick catch up - anyone who thinks MRP seat projections are a sound basis for political betting investments probably also thinks a morning dip in the Thames a nice healthy way to start the day.

    At the moment, credibility is staring down reality. The polling figures are there and consistent and yet no one seems quite to believe or trust them. I'm all for healthy scepticism but poll after poll suggests Labour are well ahead (15-20 points) and the combined Lab/LD/Green number of 58-60 sits in front of the Con/Ref number of 35-37.

    What of the Reform vote? As @Sean_Fear pointed out, and according to R&W, roughly two thirds of that share is 2019 Conservative voters with the rest coming from ex-Brexit party supporters and those who didn't vote last time.

    Assuming Reform are on 12%, IF all the former Conservatives returned to the fold, you'd see Reform back to 4% and the Conservatives at 31-33% (in other words more akin to the Conservative-Referendum split in 1997).

    However, all the evidence shows only one third of the Reform vote would go back to the Conservatives in the event of there being no Reform candidate in their constituency (as far as I am aware, Tice intends to run a full slate of candidates) so that would leave Reform on 8% and the Conservatives in the high twenties.

    Roughly a sixth of the Reform vote say they would vote Labour absent a Reform candidate with half staying at home so this notion a wave of ex-Reform voters will come over the hill to save the Tories doesn't stand up to evidence at this time. Indeed, I'd argue the leadership of Reform (Tice, Farage) are essentially small state tax cutting Thatcherites yet the Reform voters are more in the Boris Johnson mould of wanting to see plenty of public money in WWC areas. That will probably be what does for Reform after the election when I suspect some of the leadership will move back over to a Badenoch or Braverman-led opposition.

    Farage is a Trussite not a Thatcherite.
    I think he was a Thatcherite first in the 1990s - as to the nuances between Thatcherism and Trussite policies I'll leave those to the experts.

    Both seem predicated on cutting taxes for the wealthy in the hope the extra funds will "trickle down" to the rest of the economy. The evidence for that is flimsy at best and the other side of the "supply side" reforms usually involves having to make deep cuts in public spending to offset the revenue lost from cutting higher tax rates.

    As I recall, Truss also wanted to throw public money at helping soften the rises in energy bills so the public finances were being battered from both sides (bit like a nice piece of fish). Less Trussite and more like Haddockism.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,126
    "The police now risk appearing to be the enforcement arm of activists."
    Let's see whether and how they avoid that

    The whole thing looks like an April Fool's joke on Police Scotland
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711

    nico679 said:

    Minister Hollinrake disgracing himself once again on LBC .

    Defending the legislation on homelessness and admitting he hasn’t even read it.

    Homeless people don't vote so no harm done, Onwards and upwards.
    No surprise that this legislation was put forward by the stain on humanity Braverman.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,029
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning everyone :)

    Belated Easter greetings to all and another day which has dawned fine in my part of the world but whether it will remain as pleasant is open to question.

    As usual, I'm about 16 threads behind the curve so a quick catch up - anyone who thinks MRP seat projections are a sound basis for political betting investments probably also thinks a morning dip in the Thames a nice healthy way to start the day.

    At the moment, credibility is staring down reality. The polling figures are there and consistent and yet no one seems quite to believe or trust them. I'm all for healthy scepticism but poll after poll suggests Labour are well ahead (15-20 points) and the combined Lab/LD/Green number of 58-60 sits in front of the Con/Ref number of 35-37.

    What of the Reform vote? As @Sean_Fear pointed out, and according to R&W, roughly two thirds of that share is 2019 Conservative voters with the rest coming from ex-Brexit party supporters and those who didn't vote last time.

    Assuming Reform are on 12%, IF all the former Conservatives returned to the fold, you'd see Reform back to 4% and the Conservatives at 31-33% (in other words more akin to the Conservative-Referendum split in 1997).

    However, all the evidence shows only one third of the Reform vote would go back to the Conservatives in the event of there being no Reform candidate in their constituency (as far as I am aware, Tice intends to run a full slate of candidates) so that would leave Reform on 8% and the Conservatives in the high twenties.

    Roughly a sixth of the Reform vote say they would vote Labour absent a Reform candidate with half staying at home so this notion a wave of ex-Reform voters will come over the hill to save the Tories doesn't stand up to evidence at this time. Indeed, I'd argue the leadership of Reform (Tice, Farage) are essentially small state tax cutting Thatcherites yet the Reform voters are more in the Boris Johnson mould of wanting to see plenty of public money in WWC areas. That will probably be what does for Reform after the election when I suspect some of the leadership will move back over to a Badenoch or Braverman-led opposition.

    Farage is a Trussite not a Thatcherite.
    I think he was a Thatcherite first in the 1990s - as to the nuances between Thatcherism and Trussite policies I'll leave those to the experts.

    Both seem predicated on cutting taxes for the wealthy in the hope the extra funds will "trickle down" to the rest of the economy. The evidence for that is flimsy at best and the other side of the "supply side" reforms usually involves having to make deep cuts in public spending to offset the revenue lost from cutting higher tax rates.

    As I recall, Truss also wanted to throw public money at helping soften the rises in energy bills so the public finances were being battered from both sides (bit like a nice piece of fish). Less Trussite and more like Haddockism.
    Is Truss even an "ism" and are there "ites"? The daft fool is given far too much credence for her crackpottery.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,377
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning everyone :)

    Belated Easter greetings to all and another day which has dawned fine in my part of the world but whether it will remain as pleasant is open to question.

    As usual, I'm about 16 threads behind the curve so a quick catch up - anyone who thinks MRP seat projections are a sound basis for political betting investments probably also thinks a morning dip in the Thames a nice healthy way to start the day.

    At the moment, credibility is staring down reality. The polling figures are there and consistent and yet no one seems quite to believe or trust them. I'm all for healthy scepticism but poll after poll suggests Labour are well ahead (15-20 points) and the combined Lab/LD/Green number of 58-60 sits in front of the Con/Ref number of 35-37.

    What of the Reform vote? As @Sean_Fear pointed out, and according to R&W, roughly two thirds of that share is 2019 Conservative voters with the rest coming from ex-Brexit party supporters and those who didn't vote last time.

    Assuming Reform are on 12%, IF all the former Conservatives returned to the fold, you'd see Reform back to 4% and the Conservatives at 31-33% (in other words more akin to the Conservative-Referendum split in 1997).

    However, all the evidence shows only one third of the Reform vote would go back to the Conservatives in the event of there being no Reform candidate in their constituency (as far as I am aware, Tice intends to run a full slate of candidates) so that would leave Reform on 8% and the Conservatives in the high twenties.

    Roughly a sixth of the Reform vote say they would vote Labour absent a Reform candidate with half staying at home so this notion a wave of ex-Reform voters will come over the hill to save the Tories doesn't stand up to evidence at this time. Indeed, I'd argue the leadership of Reform (Tice, Farage) are essentially small state tax cutting Thatcherites yet the Reform voters are more in the Boris Johnson mould of wanting to see plenty of public money in WWC areas. That will probably be what does for Reform after the election when I suspect some of the leadership will move back over to a Badenoch or Braverman-led opposition.

    Farage is a Trussite not a Thatcherite.
    I think he was a Thatcherite first in the 1990s - as to the nuances between Thatcherism and Trussite policies I'll leave those to the experts.

    Both seem predicated on cutting taxes for the wealthy in the hope the extra funds will "trickle down" to the rest of the economy. The evidence for that is flimsy at best and the other side of the "supply side" reforms usually involves having to make deep cuts in public spending to offset the revenue lost from cutting higher tax rates.

    As I recall, Truss also wanted to throw public money at helping soften the rises in energy bills so the public finances were being battered from both sides (bit like a nice piece of fish). Less Trussite and more like Haddockism.
    Lettucism?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    A country that continually lives beyond its means inevitably sees more and more of its assets bought by foreigners in exchange for current goods and services.

    Those assets sold to foreigners can include businesses as well as government bonds, Mayfair mansions and football clubs.
    I don't disagree and in a free market that's one of the consequences. I recall the Thatcher Government was enthusiastic about the trading aspects of the Single European Act and indeed free marketers should support the four freedoms.

    The problem is economic liberalism bumps up against cultual protectionism - many would prefer to buy British from British owned companies though we all know if the quality comes from abroad, we'll buy the import every time.

    That isn't the end of cultural protectionism - the free market in goods and services is one thing but the free market in people is something else. People have always moved to where the money is and it was an inevitable consequence of freedom of movement people from poorer parts of Europe would move to the richer parts. There's economic sense in that just as there is for richer people in the north of Europe to move to the sunnier climes of the south bringing their capital to invigorate the local economies.

    As to "living beyond its means", again, I don't disagree but where do you start in terms of reducing the deficit and returning to a balanced budget? Some on the Conservative side actively supported borrowing at low interest rates (thougn that's kicking an ever bigger can down the road) but how do you bring the public finances back?

    Do we cut spending, raise taxes or both? What do we cut - apparently health, welfare and defence are off limits (not sure why) and we can't raise taxes without howls of anguish? Is it time for Land Value Taxation or do we continue to tax consumption?
    The rich and consumers will have to pay more tax.
    The poor and old will have to receive less.
    The workers will have to work longer and increase their productivity.

    The proportions of pain between the various groups will be where the debate is but there will be many unhappy whatever the outcome.

    As to Thatcher and the development of the single market that was a time when the UK ran a trade surplus, had net emigration and the single market was a much smaller group of countries with fewer economic differences between them.

    How she would have viewed the larger, more varied and more chaotic current global economy I don't know.
    You're not wrong and unfortunately the siren calls of populism will no doubt resonate when it comes to the debate. There'll be charismatic and less charismatic figures arguing the problems can be solved if either "someone else" takes the hit (demonising groups or sections or society) or there's no hit needing to be taken (kicking the can down the road via yet more borrowing).

    The former is already evident (the "rich" and the "pensioners" being singled out) and the latter is probably going to be an integral part of the policies of all parties.

    In politics, unfortunately, you can only move at a speed commensurate with public opinion. Thatcher, to her credit, tried to persuade the eelctorate of the validity of her positions by argument. Sunak and Starmer allow the public to lead them and as you say no one is making the case for living within our means or articulating the hard options.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,029

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    A country that continually lives beyond its means inevitably sees more and more of its assets bought by foreigners in exchange for current goods and services.

    Those assets sold to foreigners can include businesses as well as government bonds, Mayfair mansions and football clubs.
    I don't disagree and in a free market that's one of the consequences. I recall the Thatcher Government was enthusiastic about the trading aspects of the Single European Act and indeed free marketers should support the four freedoms.

    The problem is economic liberalism bumps up against cultual protectionism - many would prefer to buy British from British owned companies though we all know if the quality comes from abroad, we'll buy the import every time.

    That isn't the end of cultural protectionism - the free market in goods and services is one thing but the free market in people is something else. People have always moved to where the money is and it was an inevitable consequence of freedom of movement people from poorer parts of Europe would move to the richer parts. There's economic sense in that just as there is for richer people in the north of Europe to move to the sunnier climes of the south bringing their capital to invigorate the local economies.

    As to "living beyond its means", again, I don't disagree but where do you start in terms of reducing the deficit and returning to a balanced budget? Some on the Conservative side actively supported borrowing at low interest rates (thougn that's kicking an ever bigger can down the road) but how do you bring the public finances back?

    Do we cut spending, raise taxes or both? What do we cut - apparently health, welfare and defence are off limits (not sure why) and we can't raise taxes without howls of anguish? Is it time for Land Value Taxation or do we continue to tax consumption?
    The rich and consumers will have to pay more tax.
    The poor and old will have to receive less.
    The workers will have to work longer and increase their productivity.

    The proportions of pain between the various groups will be where the debate is but there will be many unhappy whatever the outcome.

    As to Thatcher and the development of the single market that was a time when the UK ran a trade surplus, had net emigration and the single market was a much smaller group of countries with fewer economic differences between them.

    How she would have viewed the larger, more varied and more chaotic current global economy I don't know.
    I normally baulk at your various theses. However the proclamations in your first paragraph are more than likely salient. I would add the caveat of how do "the poor and the (poor- my edit) old live on fresh air alone? The social contract between workers (and former workers) and society is broken. It was broken by your party over the last decade, either by accident or intent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    Carnyx said:

    Wings over Scotland has received detailed legal opinion regarding the Hate Crime Bill. https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/
    What do you think of the opinion, lawyers? @Cyclefree, @DavidL, @TSE and others?

    I suspect this is a law that is going to be more honoured in the breach than in the observance.
    What's with the "Yousaf Humza", btw? And the stray 'Humza', presumably? A deliberate mistake to see if anyone spots it?
    Early morning brain fart.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    stodge said:

    Morning everyone :)

    Belated Easter greetings to all and another day which has dawned fine in my part of the world but whether it will remain as pleasant is open to question.

    As usual, I'm about 16 threads behind the curve so a quick catch up - anyone who thinks MRP seat projections are a sound basis for political betting investments probably also thinks a morning dip in the Thames a nice healthy way to start the day.

    At the moment, credibility is staring down reality. The polling figures are there and consistent and yet no one seems quite to believe or trust them. I'm all for healthy scepticism but poll after poll suggests Labour are well ahead (15-20 points) and the combined Lab/LD/Green number of 58-60 sits in front of the Con/Ref number of 35-37.

    What of the Reform vote? As @Sean_Fear pointed out, and according to R&W, roughly two thirds of that share is 2019 Conservative voters with the rest coming from ex-Brexit party supporters and those who didn't vote last time.

    Assuming Reform are on 12%, IF all the former Conservatives returned to the fold, you'd see Reform back to 4% and the Conservatives at 31-33% (in other words more akin to the Conservative-Referendum split in 1997).

    However, all the evidence shows only one third of the Reform vote would go back to the Conservatives in the event of there being no Reform candidate in their constituency (as far as I am aware, Tice intends to run a full slate of candidates) so that would leave Reform on 8% and the Conservatives in the high twenties.

    Roughly a sixth of the Reform vote say they would vote Labour absent a Reform candidate with half staying at home so this notion a wave of ex-Reform voters will come over the hill to save the Tories doesn't stand up to evidence at this time. Indeed, I'd argue the leadership of Reform (Tice, Farage) are essentially small state tax cutting Thatcherites yet the Reform voters are more in the Boris Johnson mould of wanting to see plenty of public money in WWC areas. That will probably be what does for Reform after the election when I suspect some of the leadership will move back over to a Badenoch or Braverman-led opposition.

    I can’t see the Reform vote showing up anywhere in actual elections. Even with a near full slate of candidates, I don’t think they’ll outpoll the Referendum Party.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,473
    Two notes from R4 Today this morning, both indicative of trends.

    The Scottish minister for hate crimes didn't want to talk about the criminal aspects of abuse etc towards JK Rowling.

    The UN bloke in Gaza (BTW I am not unsympathetic and don't want his job) seemed remarkably well informed and full of opinions about the evils perpetrated by the IDF, but an absolute blank stone wall, both on facts and opinions, on the subject of Hamas's sub-optimal actions, and in particular whether it had interactions with Gaza hospital sites.

    The impression that the UN and its agencies are not neutral actors is strong.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,029

    Taz said:

    Humza Yousaf is a fanny.

    He’s also a flag shagger.

    I await my visit from Police Scotland.

    They’ll be waiting for you to cross the border.
    As W.H. Auden didn't quite say:

    This is the blogger crossing the border.
    About to receive a restraining order.
    Frame that post!

    The Night Mail could be renamed "On Police bail".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    I can see people pushing the boundaries of this law very, very quickly. And deliberately.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    Ha ha Scotland, you thought you could pass an act by a vote in your own parliament that then went through a series of cross party amendments, but no, those great moral philosophers of our age Musk and Rowling plus PB A.N.Other randoms have spoken, April Fool!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Some of the most vociferous critics of the current iteration of the Conservative Party on PB are generally sympathetic to the cause of "genuine Conservatism". You shouldn't blame them when scoundrels have stolen the Party.

    Also you are clearly yet to read a BJO post.
    TBF, given the rabbit warren BJO has run down with such vigour and elan that's a sound strategy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,565
    So I think I'm on safe ground with this:

    To anyone in Scotland with religious beliefs - it's a load of nonsense you daft bunch.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090

    Ha ha Scotland, you thought you could pass an act by a vote in your own parliament that then went through a series of cross party amendments, but no, those great moral philosophers of our age Musk and Rowling plus PB A.N.Other randoms have spoken, April Fool!

    As Mel Gibson said in Chicken Run:

    'Was that English?'
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,493

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    A country that continually lives beyond its means inevitably sees more and more of its assets bought by foreigners in exchange for current goods and services.

    Those assets sold to foreigners can include businesses as well as government bonds, Mayfair mansions and football clubs.
    I don't disagree and in a free market that's one of the consequences. I recall the Thatcher Government was enthusiastic about the trading aspects of the Single European Act and indeed free marketers should support the four freedoms.

    The problem is economic liberalism bumps up against cultual protectionism - many would prefer to buy British from British owned companies though we all know if the quality comes from abroad, we'll buy the import every time.

    That isn't the end of cultural protectionism - the free market in goods and services is one thing but the free market in people is something else. People have always moved to where the money is and it was an inevitable consequence of freedom of movement people from poorer parts of Europe would move to the richer parts. There's economic sense in that just as there is for richer people in the north of Europe to move to the sunnier climes of the south bringing their capital to invigorate the local economies.

    As to "living beyond its means", again, I don't disagree but where do you start in terms of reducing the deficit and returning to a balanced budget? Some on the Conservative side actively supported borrowing at low interest rates (thougn that's kicking an ever bigger can down the road) but how do you bring the public finances back?

    Do we cut spending, raise taxes or both? What do we cut - apparently health, welfare and defence are off limits (not sure why) and we can't raise taxes without howls of anguish? Is it time for Land Value Taxation or do we continue to tax consumption?
    The rich and consumers will have to pay more tax.
    The poor and old will have to receive less.
    The workers will have to work longer and increase their productivity.

    The proportions of pain between the various groups will be where the debate is but there will be many unhappy whatever the outcome.

    As to Thatcher and the development of the single market that was a time when the UK ran a trade surplus, had net emigration and the single market was a much smaller group of countries with fewer economic differences between them.

    How she would have viewed the larger, more varied and more chaotic current global economy I don't know.
    There are other approaches you’ve not considered. We could grow the economy. For example, let’s try to remove frictions in trade. More free trade will be a boost.

    Large multinationals have developed many ways of avoiding tax. Let’s target those, which will probably require multinational collaboration.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    algarkirk said:

    Two notes from R4 Today this morning, both indicative of trends.

    The Scottish minister for hate crimes didn't want to talk about the criminal aspects of abuse etc towards JK Rowling.

    The UN bloke in Gaza (BTW I am not unsympathetic and don't want his job) seemed remarkably well informed and full of opinions about the evils perpetrated by the IDF, but an absolute blank stone wall, both on facts and opinions, on the subject of Hamas's sub-optimal actions, and in particular whether it had interactions with Gaza hospital sites.

    The impression that the UN and its agencies are not neutral actors is strong.

    What are the criminal aspects of abuse etc towards JK Rowling?
    In any case she certainly seems to think there are limits to free speech. Luckily for her she's rich enough to wield the big stick of the law within previous legal structures.

    https://tinyurl.com/38jkv8s7
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    algarkirk said:

    Two notes from R4 Today this morning, both indicative of trends.

    The Scottish minister for hate crimes didn't want to talk about the criminal aspects of abuse etc towards JK Rowling.

    The UN bloke in Gaza (BTW I am not unsympathetic and don't want his job) seemed remarkably well informed and full of opinions about the evils perpetrated by the IDF, but an absolute blank stone wall, both on facts and opinions, on the subject of Hamas's sub-optimal actions, and in particular whether it had interactions with Gaza hospital sites.

    The impression that the UN and its agencies are not neutral actors is strong.

    I suspect that the IDF have overegged the situation regarding hospital sites and by the time you can investigate the claim there is no evidence left to confirm things one way or another.

    Phrasing that in an interview in a way that doesn't even more anti IDF is probably impossible so you end up skirting round the issue...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    algarkirk said:

    Two notes from R4 Today this morning, both indicative of trends.

    The Scottish minister for hate crimes didn't want to talk about the criminal aspects of abuse etc towards JK Rowling.

    The UN bloke in Gaza (BTW I am not unsympathetic and don't want his job) seemed remarkably well informed and full of opinions about the evils perpetrated by the IDF, but an absolute blank stone wall, both on facts and opinions, on the subject of Hamas's sub-optimal actions, and in particular whether it had interactions with Gaza hospital sites.

    The impression that the UN and its agencies are not neutral actors is strong.

    UN is full of crooks and wrong un's, it is a joke and only for grifters.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,029
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Some of the most vociferous critics of the current iteration of the Conservative Party on PB are generally sympathetic to the cause of "genuine Conservatism". You shouldn't blame them when scoundrels have stolen the Party.

    Also you are clearly yet to read a BJO post.
    TBF, given the rabbit warren BJO has run down with such vigour and elan that's a sound strategy.
    In that case, perhaps BJO's critique of Sir Keir Evil is valid because Starmer ate his baby bunnies.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    sbjme19 said:

    On Conhome a post saying Rishi will step down after the locals to be replaced by Mogg. April fool....but with the Tories you never quite know....

    Nah. JRM is a fool every month of the year.

    (Yes, I know he's made squillions. But as he would no doubt put it, for what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? And a fool can still be successful and a successful fool is still a fool.)
    Yet he’s right about Shamima Begums citizenship and right about letting Thames Water fall and the shareholders take the hit.
    So he's right as often as the average stopped clock?
    Sorry, I’m forgetting the PB rule. All Tories are wrong uns and labour can do no wrong 👍

    As balanced as Bart’s view on the Israel Gaza conflict.
    Oh, please. I see there's plenty of room in the ditch for you and Rishi.

    JRM is right on Thames Water, no argument, but then a broken clock is correct twice a day. The truth is the privatisation regime put in place by the Conservatives has brought us to this point and I don't hear JRM criticising that.
    A country that continually lives beyond its means inevitably sees more and more of its assets bought by foreigners in exchange for current goods and services.

    Those assets sold to foreigners can include businesses as well as government bonds, Mayfair mansions and football clubs.
    I don't disagree and in a free market that's one of the consequences. I recall the Thatcher Government was enthusiastic about the trading aspects of the Single European Act and indeed free marketers should support the four freedoms.

    The problem is economic liberalism bumps up against cultual protectionism - many would prefer to buy British from British owned companies though we all know if the quality comes from abroad, we'll buy the import every time.

    That isn't the end of cultural protectionism - the free market in goods and services is one thing but the free market in people is something else. People have always moved to where the money is and it was an inevitable consequence of freedom of movement people from poorer parts of Europe would move to the richer parts. There's economic sense in that just as there is for richer people in the north of Europe to move to the sunnier climes of the south bringing their capital to invigorate the local economies.

    As to "living beyond its means", again, I don't disagree but where do you start in terms of reducing the deficit and returning to a balanced budget? Some on the Conservative side actively supported borrowing at low interest rates (thougn that's kicking an ever bigger can down the road) but how do you bring the public finances back?

    Do we cut spending, raise taxes or both? What do we cut - apparently health, welfare and defence are off limits (not sure why) and we can't raise taxes without howls of anguish? Is it time for Land Value Taxation or do we continue to tax consumption?
    The rich and consumers will have to pay more tax.
    The poor and old will have to receive less.
    The workers will have to work longer and increase their productivity.

    The proportions of pain between the various groups will be where the debate is but there will be many unhappy whatever the outcome.

    As to Thatcher and the development of the single market that was a time when the UK ran a trade surplus, had net emigration and the single market was a much smaller group of countries with fewer economic differences between them.

    How she would have viewed the larger, more varied and more chaotic current global economy I don't know.
    I normally baulk at your various theses. However the proclamations in your first paragraph are more than likely salient. I would add the caveat of how do "the poor and the (poor- my edit) old live on fresh air alone? The social contract between workers (and former workers) and society is broken. It was broken by your party over the last decade, either by accident or intent.
    I'm not and have never been a member of a political party and have voted for multiple parties during my life.

    Now as to those who receive the largest amounts of government payments and services - the old and the poor - they will have to do what anyone else does when their income isn't as high as they want that is adapt to their lesser means.

    How much they will need to adapt depends on what 'proportion of pain' they have to accept.

    Not to mention many oldies are among the affluent and as a group dominate the asset rich.

    The government was predicted to spend £341bn on social protection, £245bn on health and £43bn on personal social services in the last year:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45814459

    I'm not sure how that equates to the 'social contract is broken'.

    As for workers we currently have full employment - something which for those whose formative years were after 1975 would never have been expected to happen.

    And which, if those who predict the mass economic disruption of AI are correct, might be looked back on as a brief interlude between periods of high unemployment.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,473

    Wings over Scotland has received detailed legal opinion regarding the Hate Crime Bill. https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/
    What do you think of the opinion, lawyers? @Cyclefree, @DavidL, @TSE and others?

    Not a Scottish lawyer, so not getting involved; but reading the opinion (does the word 'opine' ever arise non-ironically other than from Scottish lawyers?) suggests that the act itself is, with regard to convictions, reasonably harmless as long as Roddy Dunlop is your lawyer.

    (But the greater substance of the criticism of this bad act is the 'chilling' effect on ordinary people who will be rendered doubtful in expressing views, and in the keeping of records by police of non-criminal activity in a world where no-one will trust what use will be made of them.)

    I think we can rely on Wings Over Scotland and others to test all this out in court.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    Given the workload that the police are already under, I can't see this having a noticeable effect on people in Scotland beyond the end of this week. The novelty of reporting random people twitter will die off quickly, and the police will slot this stuff just under dodgy buzzard deaths on grouse moors.

    My concern is that someone like me will have a few vexatious complaints on my record and I will never know about it given the lack of investigation. The sensible approach will be to do a subject access request* every few months to check, and certainly before I go for a new job/flat/promotion etc. This will just swamp the police with even more paperwork, and possibly backfire if it means they subsequently open an investigation as I keep bringing attention to my online activity.

    Hmmm.

    * I assume this will work.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,473

    algarkirk said:

    Two notes from R4 Today this morning, both indicative of trends.

    The Scottish minister for hate crimes didn't want to talk about the criminal aspects of abuse etc towards JK Rowling.

    The UN bloke in Gaza (BTW I am not unsympathetic and don't want his job) seemed remarkably well informed and full of opinions about the evils perpetrated by the IDF, but an absolute blank stone wall, both on facts and opinions, on the subject of Hamas's sub-optimal actions, and in particular whether it had interactions with Gaza hospital sites.

    The impression that the UN and its agencies are not neutral actors is strong.

    What are the criminal aspects of abuse etc towards JK Rowling?
    In any case she certainly seems to think there are limits to free speech. Luckily for her she's rich enough to wield the big stick of the law within previous legal structures.

    https://tinyurl.com/38jkv8s7
    Ask the minister who didn't want to talk about it to Justin Webb. She is Siobhian Brown.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    algarkirk said:

    Wings over Scotland has received detailed legal opinion regarding the Hate Crime Bill. https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/
    What do you think of the opinion, lawyers? @Cyclefree, @DavidL, @TSE and others?

    Not a Scottish lawyer, so not getting involved; but reading the opinion (does the word 'opine' ever arise non-ironically other than from Scottish lawyers?) suggests that the act itself is, with regard to convictions, reasonably harmless as long as Roddy Dunlop is your lawyer.

    (But the greater substance of the criticism of this bad act is the 'chilling' effect on ordinary people who will be rendered doubtful in expressing views, and in the keeping of records by police of non-criminal activity in a world where no-one will trust what use will be made of them.)

    I think we can rely on Wings Over Scotland and others to test all this out in court.
    It won't survive the Fringe. Every comedian in the country will be desperate to be the first to get nicked.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    DavidL said:

    Wings over Scotland is sufficiently concerned by this law as to have taken Counsel's Opinion and he has now published this opinion here: https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-thousand-paper-cranes/#more-142127

    The Opinion considers the Act in some detail. The principal author, Mr Dunlop KC, is the Dean of Faculty of the Scottish Bar*. He has not, to my knowledge, been an Advocate Depute responsible for marking controversial cases nor does he have, to my knowledge, much direct knowledge or experience of dealing with criminal proceedings. He is an acknowledged expert in regulatory and administrative law as well as human rights. His Junior in this matter has similar experience and lack of criminal experience.

    I have 2 reservations about his opinion. Firstly, how the Act will be interpreted, at least as far as prosecution is concerned, will be determined by the policies and decisions of Crown Office. If the intention is that certain groups, specifically those advocating controversial positions on the transgender issue, be held accountable by this law I think that some of the Opinions as to what is thought to be an offence and what is not may not be agreed with.

    Secondly, whilst he may well prove to be correct as to the view that a court or even a jury might take at the end of the day it is the threat of prosecution, successful or otherwise, that has the chilling effect on public discourse. I agree with @Cyclefree's observations on that.


    *I am also a member of the Scottish bar and am currently a serving Advocate Depute but well below the pay grade of those responsible for policy.

    I thought Dunlop was off to England because of the SNP's iniquitous tax regime? Great to hear that he's decided to stick around!
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