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Some good news for Sunak – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 31 in General
imageSome good news for Sunak – politicalbetting.com

If Sunak were disposed most of the public say that there should be an immediate General Election including over half of 2019 Conservative voters. pic.twitter.com/Ji16wVpl70

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    First as Sunak will be (in Richmondshire)..
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,406
    Someone needs to doorstep Brenda from Bristol on this question. Like an electoral Paul the Octopus, where she goes the nation follows.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537
    Martin Lewis? I always had him as slightly left of centre.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234

    Martin Lewis? I always had him as slightly left of centre.

    Who knows ?
    But apparent his popularity suggests a desire for someone at least competent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    TimS said:

    Someone needs to doorstep Brenda from Bristol on this question. Like an electoral Paul the Octopus, where she goes the nation follows.

    Paul is no more.

    Don't know about Brenda.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,565
    edited March 31
    Sorry to immediately refer to the previous thread but it is something I feel strongly about. There was a discussion on assisted dying and the discussion got away from the original point. I have no issues with people of sound mind deciding to end their life. However that is a whole different kettle of fish to what @Trent was advocating which was others deciding to end other people's lives on the basis of cost which is disgusting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    Caught by the new thread
    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,043
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    Someone needs to doorstep Brenda from Bristol on this question. Like an electoral Paul the Octopus, where she goes the nation follows.

    Paul is no more.

    Don't know about Brenda.
    Paul was cancelled because he was Antisemitic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    Meanwhile, I went to a London PL match yesterday. Thudding and incredibly loud drum and bass before the kick off, but that seems endemic now at football, rugby, and limited overs cricket fixtures, oh and bonfire nights.

    As if somehow the entertainment on offer isn’t sufficient? Or have we become as a race incapable of quiet, collecting thoughts, or savouring natural atmosphere?

    I guess for a nature-lover like me, this is basically London life and so I can’t have it both ways. Come here for a long weekend and it’s what you get.

    Anyway off to Borough market for some nosh and then Greenwich.

    xx
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,406
    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    MRP seems to routinely overstate Labour and understate Lib Dem in areas of LD strength. Which is great fodder for Labour leaflets in those areas for local parties so inclined, and thereby excellent news for Tory incumbents.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478

    Martin Lewis? I always had him as slightly left of centre.

    I think he is quite careful to avoid party politics in his pronouncements.

    The Reform to Mordaunt switchers in the header are an interesting group. They cannot be interested by her Woke policy's surely? Is it her sword carrying skills? Boufant hair, or colour of her skin?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    The Aster 30 is a pretty capable missile, very roughly equivalent to the Patriot.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,184
    FPT

    Where's @BartholomewRoberts ?

    "Boat Race: Oxford rowers criticise sewage levels in River Thames"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68701486
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    MRP seems to routinely overstate Labour and understate Lib Dem in areas of LD strength. Which is great fodder for Labour leaflets in those areas for local parties so inclined, and thereby excellent news for Tory incumbents.
    Next it will be forecasting Eastbourne as a 3 way marginal ! If the Tories were to hang on here it would be a terrible night for those of us wanting rid of them .
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.

    A November GE is my expectation. The sheer stupidity of it - with countless senior Tories spending the entire autumn cheering on Trump and tying the Conservative brand to him - is absolutely quintessential Sunak.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    MRP seems to routinely overstate Labour and understate Lib Dem in areas of LD strength. Which is great fodder for Labour leaflets in those areas for local parties so inclined, and thereby excellent news for Tory incumbents.
    I am not sure that the IoW is an area of LD strength anymore, gone to the Greens I think.

    In real elections Lab has been second place, so the obvious tactical vote. I agree though that where LD was second in 2019 that the MRP may be misleading.

    Will the LDs have a 1997 type surge in seat numbers on Labour's coat tails? I am not convinced as yet. Ed Davey is an astute tactician but no Paddy Ashdown in charisma. On the other hand Starmer is no Blair and Sunak no Major. As a general rule Lib/LD seat numbers go up when Lab ones do too, so maybe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.

    A November GE is my expectation. The sheer stupidity of it - with countless senior Tories spending the entire autumn cheering on Trump and tying the Conservative brand to him - is absolutely quintessential Sunak.

    I think September or October. No way does Sunak want to face another Conference.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,677
    edited March 31
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    MRP seems to routinely overstate Labour and understate Lib Dem in areas of LD strength. Which is great fodder for Labour leaflets in those areas for local parties so inclined, and thereby excellent news for Tory incumbents.
    I suspect MRP can be good at predicting how small but significant movements play out on the ground, but is less good at working out the specific effects of big movements.

    On current polling there should be plenty of places where Labour will come from third to take the seat. MRP is unlikely to know where the Lib Dems can persuade previous Tory voters to choose them rather than Labour, as they would likely do in other seats.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    edited March 31
    Foxy said:

    Martin Lewis? I always had him as slightly left of centre.

    I think he is quite careful to avoid party politics in his pronouncements.

    The Reform to Mordaunt switchers in the header are an interesting group. They cannot be interested by her Woke policy's surely? Is it her sword carrying skills? Boufant hair, or colour of her skin?
    I think it’s a combo of the three . Her hair especially is marvelous and very Bondesque from a time of more simple pleasures .

    She could of course tailor her message. In urban areas she should wheel out her hunky gay twin brother on the campaign trail , preferably dressed in just his boxers!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234

    Korean lenders expand presence in Central Europe
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=371768
    Local commercial and state-run lenders are rushing to establish offices in Poland and Hungary, buoyed by rapid growth of integrated economic activities between Korean businesses and their Central Europe peers, market watchers said Sunday.

    Chief among them are car and battery manufacturing, Korea's growth driver industries seeking to make greater strides in the European market together with their smaller partner firms making automotive parts and rechargeable equipment. Industry leaders with production facilities there include Hyundai Motor and its sister firm Kia, LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI and SK On.

    Further brightening Korea's prospects is the growth of defense industries in the region, as best encapsulated by Korea's over 9 billion won ($6.6 million) worth of defense exports to Poland last year. The 14.8 percent year-on-year increase pushed up Poland as Korea's fifth surplus-generating trading partner, up from the previous seventh.

    Korea's leading commercial lenders aim to provide a combined financing of 10 trillion won to facilitate the country's arms equipment exports to Poland to the tune of 47 trillion won. The deal signed last year will be mediated primarily by the state-run Export-Import Bank of Korea (Eximbank) and Korea Trade Insurance Corp (K-Sure).

    The expanded presence will help Korean entities join nearby Ukraine's post-war reconstruction projects anticipated to be worth about $750 billion in total...


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    Here is something that might boost morale in Britain. Road safety is still something that Britain is doing well at. The latest statistics show a continuing decline in road fatalities on British roads.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2023/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2023

    This is in contrast to the figures from the EU, which are overall static, and particularly Ireland, where they are sharply up last year, and more so this year to date.

    https://transport.ec.europa.eu/news-events/news/2023-figures-show-stalling-progress-reducing-road-fatalities-too-many-countries-2024-03-08_en

    The increases in Ireland are really quite shocking. Up by 19% last year, 31% on 2019, and up by another third so far this year. It's kinda baffling to explain what could have changed so drastically in such a short period of time that hasn't changed in Britain, or Europe.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,052
    So the highest support for the Cons ditching Sunak comes from Labour supporters despite Labour having a large and consistent poll lead against him. You'd have thought Labour supporters would be content with this and not wish to see a rock thrown in the pond. That's certainly how I feel.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100
    Nigelb said:


    Korean lenders expand presence in Central Europe
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=371768
    Local commercial and state-run lenders are rushing to establish offices in Poland and Hungary, buoyed by rapid growth of integrated economic activities between Korean businesses and their Central Europe peers, market watchers said Sunday.

    Chief among them are car and battery manufacturing, Korea's growth driver industries seeking to make greater strides in the European market together with their smaller partner firms making automotive parts and rechargeable equipment. Industry leaders with production facilities there include Hyundai Motor and its sister firm Kia, LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI and SK On.

    Further brightening Korea's prospects is the growth of defense industries in the region, as best encapsulated by Korea's over 9 billion won ($6.6 million) worth of defense exports to Poland last year. The 14.8 percent year-on-year increase pushed up Poland as Korea's fifth surplus-generating trading partner, up from the previous seventh.

    Korea's leading commercial lenders aim to provide a combined financing of 10 trillion won to facilitate the country's arms equipment exports to Poland to the tune of 47 trillion won. The deal signed last year will be mediated primarily by the state-run Export-Import Bank of Korea (Eximbank) and Korea Trade Insurance Corp (K-Sure).

    The expanded presence will help Korean entities join nearby Ukraine's post-war reconstruction projects anticipated to be worth about $750 billion in total...


    Its amazing what opportunities open up to you when you run a consistent surplus and how many doors shut in your face when you don't.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    kinabalu said:

    So the highest support for the Cons ditching Sunak comes from Labour supporters despite Labour having a large and consistent poll lead against him. You'd have thought Labour supporters would be content with this and not wish to see a rock thrown in the pond. That's certainly how I feel.

    Ironically it’s much better for Labour if the Tories do better than expected at the locals . The last thing they want is a change of leader . Of course this relies on the Tories not picking someone worse than Sunak .
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    This is a bit like winning the public vote to be captain of the Titanic.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,796
    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile, I went to a London PL match yesterday. Thudding and incredibly loud drum and bass before the kick off, but that seems endemic now at football, rugby, and limited overs cricket fixtures, oh and bonfire nights.

    As if somehow the entertainment on offer isn’t sufficient? Or have we become as a race incapable of quiet, collecting thoughts, or savouring natural atmosphere?

    I guess for a nature-lover like me, this is basically London life and so I can’t have it both ways. Come here for a long weekend and it’s what you get.

    Anyway off to Borough market for some nosh and then Greenwich.

    xx

    For my sins, I am a St Mirren season ticket holder.
    The last two songs played over the PA before kick-off are:
    "The Saints Are Coming" by The Skids, and
    "Baker Street" by Gerry Rafferty.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.

    A November GE is my expectation. The sheer stupidity of it - with countless senior Tories spending the entire autumn cheering on Trump and tying the Conservative brand to him - is absolutely quintessential Sunak.

    I think September or October. No way does Sunak want to face another Conference.
    They are coming for Sunak straight after the locals. Whilst I don't expect them to succeed, they will do yet more damage to the government with more holes below the water line.

    There is a very real risk that the government simply collapses. Truss lost authority over the party and was gone quickly. In this scenario Sunak can't be gone as he'd already defeated the May putsch attempt. So the government would be gone - a collapse election in the summer.

    If he makes it that far we can all conceive what the summer would be like. So calling an election as soon as parliament resumes at the start of September would make a lot of sense. Because we can all conceive what the Tory conference would be like!

    But as always, remember that the easiest decision is indecision. Letting things like conference just happen is an easy out...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100

    This is a bit like winning the public vote to be captain of the Titanic.

    That's exactly what I was thinking. Admiral Byng had a fine fleet and excellent prospects by comparison.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile, I went to a London PL match yesterday. Thudding and incredibly loud drum and bass before the kick off, but that seems endemic now at football, rugby, and limited overs cricket fixtures, oh and bonfire nights.

    As if somehow the entertainment on offer isn’t sufficient? Or have we become as a race incapable of quiet, collecting thoughts, or savouring natural atmosphere?

    I guess for a nature-lover like me, this is basically London life and so I can’t have it both ways. Come here for a long weekend and it’s what you get.

    Anyway off to Borough market for some nosh and then Greenwich.

    xx

    For my sins, I am a St Mirren season ticket holder.
    The last two songs played over the PA before kick-off are:
    "The Saints Are Coming" by The Skids, and
    "Baker Street" by Gerry Rafferty.
    "When You are smiling" at Leicester City, dating back to 1928.

    We do get "goal music" and "goal flags" though. Both hated by traditionalists.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    Foxy said:

    Martin Lewis? I always had him as slightly left of centre.

    I think he is quite careful to avoid party politics in his pronouncements.

    The Reform to Mordaunt switchers in the header are an interesting group. They cannot be interested by her Woke policy's surely? Is it her sword carrying skills? Boufant hair, or colour of her skin?
    Not that I'd want to pigeonhole Reform voters as patrons of Poundland but a Pavlovian response to her coronating getup?



  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile, I went to a London PL match yesterday. Thudding and incredibly loud drum and bass before the kick off, but that seems endemic now at football, rugby, and limited overs cricket fixtures, oh and bonfire nights.

    As if somehow the entertainment on offer isn’t sufficient? Or have we become as a race incapable of quiet, collecting thoughts, or savouring natural atmosphere?

    I guess for a nature-lover like me, this is basically London life and so I can’t have it both ways. Come here for a long weekend and it’s what you get.

    Anyway off to Borough market for some nosh and then Greenwich.

    xx

    For my sins, I am a St Mirren season ticket holder.
    The last two songs played over the PA before kick-off are:
    "The Saints Are Coming" by The Skids, and
    "Baker Street" by Gerry Rafferty.
    Was Gerry Rafferty not a local boy?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    edited March 31
    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    I think this kind of critique of an MRP is misplaced. No model is going to catch the various local intricacies of voting patterns, and the importance of each demographic factor will change constituency by constituency, candidate by candidate. This is even more obvious in Scotland, with some very odd predictions coming out of the MRP.

    It does work on a national level for England and Wales, assuming that everything averages out to what their model suggests.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,052

    Fascinating prediction at the end of the previous thread by @Mexicanpete - a Tory win at the GE.

    In today’s politics you would have to be crazy to decry anything as impossible. So it *could* happen, it’s just a very very low order possibility.

    I have respect for honest political opinion across the board. But I do have to ask the remaining Tory optimists if they have considered *why* the party deserves to win again.

    Simon Calder in the Independent. Pointing out that in English Tourism Week the Tories are spending big attacking England’s biggest 3 cities as places you definitely shouldn’t visit.

    After 14 years in power and all you have left is to try and trash tourism - driving away all that tourist money. Why do you want to win? Why do you deserve to win? All you have left is hope against hope - but hope for what?

    It's a great question - in a way THE question of this coming election. Be you left or right or centre, or apolitical and just seeking more competence, there is simply no good reason to vote Tory. Their support is therefore reducing down to ultra-loyalists, relying on muscle memory formed over a lifetime. They need to somehow graft another 10% onto that to avoid something existential.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    I think this kind of critique of an MRP is misplaced. No model is going to catch the various local intricacies of voting patterns, and the importance of each demographic factor will change constituency by constituency, candidate by candidate. This is even more obvious in Scotland, with some very odd predictions coming out of the MRP.

    It does work on a national level for England and Wales, assuming that everything averages out to what their model suggests.
    I treat the seat by seat predictions with a pinch of salt and look instead at the overall picture. The ELE election is no longer an absurd assumption - its real, its shown in repeated polls as a possibility, and the longer we go with more and more polls showing the same, the more baked in that assumption gets.

    ELE does one of two things. For a country where even the Tory voters are sick of the Tories, the prospect of obliterating this disgrace of a party becomes tangible, exciting, desirable. Remember that in 1997 the Labour landslide only happened because of a pile on - the desire to hurt the Tories.

    However, the further down the ELE road we get, the more that a Labour super-landslide causes its own problems. My assumption is that MRP gets the seat by seat bit wrong in that it starts applying national % and swing by (new) seat and coming up with bonkers. Yes, in a demolition election you can win from 3rd. But some of the seat assumptions are silly. I have to assume more LD seats because thats what both polling, council seats on the ground and sanity suggests.
  • How does Rishi make it to October with polls like this?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.

    A November GE is my expectation. The sheer stupidity of it - with countless senior Tories spending the entire autumn cheering on Trump and tying the Conservative brand to him - is absolutely quintessential Sunak.

    I think September or October. No way does Sunak want to face another Conference.
    They are coming for Sunak straight after the locals. Whilst I don't expect them to succeed, they will do yet more damage to the government with more holes below the water line.

    There is a very real risk that the government simply collapses. Truss lost authority over the party and was gone quickly. In this scenario Sunak can't be gone as he'd already defeated the May putsch attempt. So the government would be gone - a collapse election in the summer.

    If he makes it that far we can all conceive what the summer would be like. So calling an election as soon as parliament resumes at the start of September would make a lot of sense. Because we can all conceive what the Tory conference would be like!

    But as always, remember that the easiest decision is indecision. Letting things like conference just happen is an easy out...
    I don't see how a collapse election happens. Even with lost by-elections, and MPs who have lost the whip, the Tories have a comfortable majority. No leader will want to call an election in the middle of a crisis for the party and they won't lose a Commons confidence vote.

    You can get 14/1 on the election being in 2025. I still think it's unlikely, but maybe 10-20% unlikely, and 14/1 is a good value bet?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    I think this kind of critique of an MRP is misplaced. No model is going to catch the various local intricacies of voting patterns, and the importance of each demographic factor will change constituency by constituency, candidate by candidate. This is even more obvious in Scotland, with some very odd predictions coming out of the MRP.

    It does work on a national level for England and Wales, assuming that everything averages out to what their model suggests.
    I treat the seat by seat predictions with a pinch of salt and look instead at the overall picture. The ELE election is no longer an absurd assumption - its real, its shown in repeated polls as a possibility, and the longer we go with more and more polls showing the same, the more baked in that assumption gets.

    ELE does one of two things. For a country where even the Tory voters are sick of the Tories, the prospect of obliterating this disgrace of a party becomes tangible, exciting, desirable. Remember that in 1997 the Labour landslide only happened because of a pile on - the desire to hurt the Tories.

    However, the further down the ELE road we get, the more that a Labour super-landslide causes its own problems. My assumption is that MRP gets the seat by seat bit wrong in that it starts applying national % and swing by (new) seat and coming up with bonkers. Yes, in a demolition election you can win from 3rd. But some of the seat assumptions are silly. I have to assume more LD seats because thats what both polling, council seats on the ground and sanity suggests.
    You could apply a crude adjustment to those seats where Labour is 3rd to get a feeling for how tactical voting changes things.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,197
    It's OK everyone. Rishi has a plan to save the our NHS.

    NHS told to cut spending on doctors and nurses to save £4.5bn
    Managers have been told by NHS England to review staffing levels and prepare to merge or close some services

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-told-to-cut-spending-on-doctors-and-nurses-to-save-45bn-sbgk7k02d (£££)
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,796
    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile, I went to a London PL match yesterday. Thudding and incredibly loud drum and bass before the kick off, but that seems endemic now at football, rugby, and limited overs cricket fixtures, oh and bonfire nights.

    As if somehow the entertainment on offer isn’t sufficient? Or have we become as a race incapable of quiet, collecting thoughts, or savouring natural atmosphere?

    I guess for a nature-lover like me, this is basically London life and so I can’t have it both ways. Come here for a long weekend and it’s what you get.

    Anyway off to Borough market for some nosh and then Greenwich.

    xx

    For my sins, I am a St Mirren season ticket holder.
    The last two songs played over the PA before kick-off are:
    "The Saints Are Coming" by The Skids, and
    "Baker Street" by Gerry Rafferty.
    Was Gerry Rafferty not a local boy?
    Yes, which is why it is played.
    A great song, but not really one to rouse the fans.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.

    A November GE is my expectation. The sheer stupidity of it - with countless senior Tories spending the entire autumn cheering on Trump and tying the Conservative brand to him - is absolutely quintessential Sunak.

    I think September or October. No way does Sunak want to face another Conference.
    They are coming for Sunak straight after the locals. Whilst I don't expect them to succeed, they will do yet more damage to the government with more holes below the water line.

    There is a very real risk that the government simply collapses. Truss lost authority over the party and was gone quickly. In this scenario Sunak can't be gone as he'd already defeated the May putsch attempt. So the government would be gone - a collapse election in the summer.

    If he makes it that far we can all conceive what the summer would be like. So calling an election as soon as parliament resumes at the start of September would make a lot of sense. Because we can all conceive what the Tory conference would be like!

    But as always, remember that the easiest decision is indecision. Letting things like conference just happen is an easy out...
    I don't see how a collapse election happens. Even with lost by-elections, and MPs who have lost the whip, the Tories have a comfortable majority. No leader will want to call an election in the middle of a crisis for the party and they won't lose a Commons confidence vote.

    You can get 14/1 on the election being in 2025. I still think it's unlikely, but maybe 10-20% unlikely, and 14/1 is a good value bet?
    Here's the scenario. Remember the Truss fracking debacle? A new PM with a chunky working majority - yet she utterly lost control and we had absolute pandemonium. They came for her very quickly and she was gone.

    Think the same levels of chaos. There is no majority if Tory MPs continue to organise against each other. Sure, they would win a confidence vote - but little else. They couldn't come for Rishi as I expect they will already have tried in May. So as the government loses control of itself it accepts the inevitable and an election is called.

    Mad. Unthinkable. Self-destructive. But all of those things have already happened. Repeatedly. In this post-2019 parliament...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    How does Rishi make it to October with polls like this?

    He won't. He will get a flight off to Rwanda and use that as his springboard to call it before everyone sees all the empty seats and the bill
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    edited March 31

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    Would it be also cynical to think that the UK is as usual reflexively following big daddy USA and concentrating on wearing little Ukraine-UJ badges rather than putting £s and weapons on the line (or even spouting BJ-esque bluster)?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    edited March 31

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.

    A November GE is my expectation. The sheer stupidity of it - with countless senior Tories spending the entire autumn cheering on Trump and tying the Conservative brand to him - is absolutely quintessential Sunak.

    I think September or October. No way does Sunak want to face another Conference.
    They are coming for Sunak straight after the locals. Whilst I don't expect them to succeed, they will do yet more damage to the government with more holes below the water line.

    There is a very real risk that the government simply collapses. Truss lost authority over the party and was gone quickly. In this scenario Sunak can't be gone as he'd already defeated the May putsch attempt. So the government would be gone - a collapse election in the summer.

    If he makes it that far we can all conceive what the summer would be like. So calling an election as soon as parliament resumes at the start of September would make a lot of sense. Because we can all conceive what the Tory conference would be like!

    But as always, remember that the easiest decision is indecision. Letting things like conference just happen is an easy out...
    I don't see how a collapse election happens. Even with lost by-elections, and MPs who have lost the whip, the Tories have a comfortable majority. No leader will want to call an election in the middle of a crisis for the party and they won't lose a Commons confidence vote.

    You can get 14/1 on the election being in 2025. I still think it's unlikely, but maybe 10-20% unlikely, and 14/1 is a good value bet?
    Here's the scenario. Remember the Truss fracking debacle? A new PM with a chunky working majority - yet she utterly lost control and we had absolute pandemonium. They came for her very quickly and she was gone.

    Think the same levels of chaos. There is no majority if Tory MPs continue to organise against each other. Sure, they would win a confidence vote - but little else. They couldn't come for Rishi as I expect they will already have tried in May. So as the government loses control of itself it accepts the inevitable and an election is called.

    Mad. Unthinkable. Self-destructive. But all of those things have already happened. Repeatedly. In this post-2019 parliament...
    In the situation you posit they would have a leadership election, or bring in an interim leader, or make Hunt PM.

    All the previous changes of leader, after Cameron walked away, have been relatively long, drawn-out affairs. May won a confidence vote and endured months of resignations. Johnson won a confidence vote and could barely put a Cabinet together. Truss effectively had Hunt imposed on her as a minder.

    Just because one attempt to understand Sunak after the locals might fail, doesn't preclude another have finishing him off a few weeks or months later - and none of them will want an immediate election. They'll want a new leader to steady the ship.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100
    edited March 31
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
    What is clear, sadly, is that last summer's offensive campaign by Ukraine was a disaster. I think that there was a belief that the superior kit that they had received from NATO could cut through where the Russians had failed and they learned at terrible cost that that was not the case. There were also delusions that the Russians were running out of kit, ammunition, missiles, even men and one more heave could see their collapse. These delusions proved wildly optimistic and costly. Even with modern tech defence has enormous advantages in both shaping and using the battlefield to expose your enemy to the unspeakable power of modern weaponry.

    Ukraine now face several years of grim defence slowly losing ground for Russian lives. It is not an enticing prospect but we need to do all we can to help them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    There was $300m of military aid for Ukraine in the interim budget passed by Congress last weekend. That will be burnt through fairly quickly but it is not nothing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile, I went to a London PL match yesterday. Thudding and incredibly loud drum and bass before the kick off, but that seems endemic now at football, rugby, and limited overs cricket fixtures, oh and bonfire nights.

    As if somehow the entertainment on offer isn’t sufficient? Or have we become as a race incapable of quiet, collecting thoughts, or savouring natural atmosphere?

    I guess for a nature-lover like me, this is basically London life and so I can’t have it both ways. Come here for a long weekend and it’s what you get.

    Anyway off to Borough market for some nosh and then Greenwich.

    xx

    For my sins, I am a St Mirren season ticket holder.
    The last two songs played over the PA before kick-off are:
    "The Saints Are Coming" by The Skids, and
    "Baker Street" by Gerry Rafferty.
    Was Gerry Rafferty not a local boy?
    Yes, which is why it is played.
    A great song, but not really one to rouse the fans.
    The most impressive entrance I have ever seen was at Ibrox many years ago now when they came out to Simply the Best. The crowd stamped with the beat and it really felt as if the concrete was bouncing. Quite intimidating for the visiting team (Dundee United in that case, and it did not stop them winning), a bit like the Hakka.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    Would it be also cynical to think that the UK is as usual reflexively following big daddy USA and concentrating on wearing little Ukraine-UJ badges rather than putting £s and weapons on the line (or even spouting BJ-esque bluster)?
    I don't know. Shapps released what looked like a very strong video from Kyiv recently, so the propaganda is still there. There are a few hints that Britain has been providing quite a lot of support behind the scenes - helping with the development of the sea drones that have been successful in the Black Sea, for example, and in suggestions that we might take German Taurus missiles so that we can send more Storm Shadows and they don't have to send their long-range missiles to Ukraine.

    But I do think Johnson would have pushed for more to be done if he was still PM. Sunak gives the appearance of going through the motions. I have a sense that they've looked at the British budget and military inventory first, and decided what can be spared, rather than looked at what Ukraine needs to win and worked out how to provide it.

    I fear that Starmer will be the same and will later decide it is futile. There's a real risk that Ukraine loses because the West chooses defeat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    The House Republicans had put any Ukraine aid bills into limbo since the end of last year (some paying lip service to Ukraine's defence; some actively opposing it).

    I'm not quite so cynical about the French, though there's probably something in what you say. I think Macron is genuinely worried for the future security of Europe - and rightly so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    There was $300m of military aid for Ukraine in the interim budget passed by Congress last weekend. That will be burnt through fairly quickly but it is not nothing.
    It's next to nothing.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,284
    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    Island politics are complex and strange. It's unlikely an outsider could read the script....or even an insider.

    Don't bet on it is my advice, and if you must, don't back the favorite.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,284
    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile, I went to a London PL match yesterday. Thudding and incredibly loud drum and bass before the kick off, but that seems endemic now at football, rugby, and limited overs cricket fixtures, oh and bonfire nights.

    As if somehow the entertainment on offer isn’t sufficient? Or have we become as a race incapable of quiet, collecting thoughts, or savouring natural atmosphere?

    I guess for a nature-lover like me, this is basically London life and so I can’t have it both ways. Come here for a long weekend and it’s what you get.

    Anyway off to Borough market for some nosh and then Greenwich.

    xx

    It's a right pain at big race meeting, Heathy. You have a wonderful moment of drama, the crowds are roaring and cheering, and some jerk puts excruciating music over the tannoy at a deafening volume.

    Nobody likes it, but I guess it helps someone to justify a job.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
    What is clear, sadly, is that last summer's offensive campaign by Ukraine was a disaster. I think that there was a belief that the superior kit that they had received from NATO could cut through where the Russians had failed and they learned at terrible cost that that was not the case. There were also delusions that the Russians were running out of kit, ammunition, missiles, even men and one more heave could see their collapse. These delusions proved wildly optimistic and costly. Even with modern tech defence has enormous advantages in both shaping and using the battlefield to expose your enemy to the unspeakable power of modern weaponry.

    Ukraine now face several years of grim defence slowly losing ground for Russian lives. It is not an enticing prospect but we need to do all we can to help them.
    I think that unduly pessimistic.
    They're not going to try another NATO style assault, that's for sure - but if the US were to pass the aid bill, they'd likely have military superiority over Russia's attacking forces.

    Absent that, the best they can do is dig in - as they're now doing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
    What is clear, sadly, is that last summer's offensive campaign by Ukraine was a disaster. I think that there was a belief that the superior kit that they had received from NATO could cut through where the Russians had failed and they learned at terrible cost that that was not the case. There were also delusions that the Russians were running out of kit, ammunition, missiles, even men and one more heave could see their collapse. These delusions proved wildly optimistic and costly. Even with modern tech defence has enormous advantages in both shaping and using the battlefield to expose your enemy to the unspeakable power of modern weaponry.

    Ukraine now face several years of grim defence slowly losing ground for Russian lives. It is not an enticing prospect but we need to do all we can to help them.
    The thing that can change the calculation is long range weaponry. With long range weaponry Ukraine can hit Russian equipment and supplies away from the front line, and they can inflict damage without incurring casualties with a direct assault.

    Two years into the war and Ukraine still has fewer artillery shells, isn't being provided with all the long-range weapons the West has available, and it's having to rely on it's own drone developments to try to fill the gap.

    There's a route to victory for Ukraine which lies in providing Taurus, ATACMs, and using the much-vaunted economic superiority of the West to produce long-range missiles and artillery shells in sufficient quantity to obliterate the Russian Army from a distance. Get It Done.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    There was $300m of military aid for Ukraine in the interim budget passed by Congress last weekend. That will be burnt through fairly quickly but it is not nothing.
    The figure touted since October/November last year is $60bn in aid for Ukraine - and you could question whether that would be enough.

    $300m is 0.5% of what has been blocked by the Trumpist GOP. It is not equal to zero, but the missing 99.5% is more noticeable on the battlefield of Ukraine.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,284
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.

    A November GE is my expectation. The sheer stupidity of it - with countless senior Tories spending the entire autumn cheering on Trump and tying the Conservative brand to him - is absolutely quintessential Sunak.

    I think September or October. No way does Sunak want to face another Conference.
    October for me, young Fox. It was what I put in my competition paper, along with a 245 seat Labour majority, which in all modesty I shall refer to only ten times a day if it turns out to be the most accurate prediction.

    By the way, what has happened to your team. I thought they were nailed on for the title.

    Foxes on the run?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    The House Republicans had put any Ukraine aid bills into limbo since the end of last year (some paying lip service to Ukraine's defence; some actively opposing it).

    I'm not quite so cynical about the French, though there's probably something in what you say. I think Macron is genuinely worried for the future security of Europe - and rightly so.
    I think that Macron is at that stage in his Presidency where he is casting about for a legacy. His attempts to modernise France and its employment practices have largely failed. The EU remains in turmoil with a weakened Germany and an ever more belligerent eastern fringe. France's influence in Africa is fading fast. Organising a serious European defence network with French leadership probably looks pretty attractive to him. Doesn't mean that he is not right and that this would not be a good thing, of course.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    We don’t know what the future will bring in Ukraine but you’re either on the right or wrong side of history .

    What the west does in terms of help impacts not just Ukraine but bad actors leading other countries . Putin wants to destroy Ukraine . We can’t stand idly by whilst a European country ceases to exist .

    There is no middle ground here , you’re either with Ukraine or you’re not .
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,962
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
    What is clear, sadly, is that last summer's offensive campaign by Ukraine was a disaster. I think that there was a belief that the superior kit that they had received from NATO could cut through where the Russians had failed and they learned at terrible cost that that was not the case. There were also delusions that the Russians were running out of kit, ammunition, missiles, even men and one more heave could see their collapse. These delusions proved wildly optimistic and costly. Even with modern tech defence has enormous advantages in both shaping and using the battlefield to expose your enemy to the unspeakable power of modern weaponry.

    Ukraine now face several years of grim defence slowly losing ground for Russian lives. It is not an enticing prospect but we need to do all we can to help them.
    I think that unduly pessimistic.
    They're not going to try another NATO style assault, that's for sure - but if the US were to pass the aid bill, they'd likely have military superiority over Russia's attacking forces.

    The DoD have $3.91b of drawdown authority they could use to send shit to Ukraine but they choose not to. The US are over it.

    https://apnews.com/article/pentagon-ukraine-russia-war-funding-716ce5f7f336f1def7e000ac9170f190
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Caught by the new thread

    Foxy said:

    I am down in East Wight for the holiday, so looking at the MRP gives me pause for thought. This seat has never been Labour, not in 1997 or 1945, but has been LD in recent times, and had a strong Green vote at last GE. The Isle of Wight has a low income economy, but surely one of the oldest demographics in the country. Can it really be a Lab gain as this MRP suggests?

    The Greens have hit their ceiling it seems, and LDs haven't done well in recent GE, with Lab in second place in the last 2 GE (all Island wide of course). The obvious tactical vote here is for Lab, but Lab aren't going to sweep up it all. The Green vote here is more green than Corbynite, so squeezable, but a good well known candidate, with flyers out in a hipster pub that I went to last night, but limited ground game.

    So I really don't know. I wonder what @IanB2 thinks?

    I think this kind of critique of an MRP is misplaced. No model is going to catch the various local intricacies of voting patterns, and the importance of each demographic factor will change constituency by constituency, candidate by candidate. This is even more obvious in Scotland, with some very odd predictions coming out of the MRP.

    It does work on a national level for England and Wales, assuming that everything averages out to what their model suggests.
    I treat the seat by seat predictions with a pinch of salt and look instead at the overall picture. The ELE election is no longer an absurd assumption - its real, its shown in repeated polls as a possibility, and the longer we go with more and more polls showing the same, the more baked in that assumption gets.

    ELE does one of two things. For a country where even the Tory voters are sick of the Tories, the prospect of obliterating this disgrace of a party becomes tangible, exciting, desirable. Remember that in 1997 the Labour landslide only happened because of a pile on - the desire to hurt the Tories.

    However, the further down the ELE road we get, the more that a Labour super-landslide causes its own problems. My assumption is that MRP gets the seat by seat bit wrong in that it starts applying national % and swing by (new) seat and coming up with bonkers. Yes, in a demolition election you can win from 3rd. But some of the seat assumptions are silly. I have to assume more LD seats because thats what both polling, council seats on the ground and sanity suggests.
    You could apply a crude adjustment to those seats where Labour is 3rd to get a feeling for how tactical voting changes things.
    I think a further one as well - because it is true that Labour should win some from third. Just not necessarily the ones highlighted.
    (I mean, over and above my own constituency, Labour coming from 12% in a very poor third place in Carshalton and Wallington to a photo-finish with the LDs for the win just looks wrong).

    Seats where Labour is 3rd and significantly back from second, where the LDs are a clear second (especially where they held the constituency very recently) and where local council strength forms a stark difference would be ones where you'd suggest would go one way.

    Ones where the third place is pretty close to second, or the second place is still a very long way back, and where local strength is either similar or absent for both LDs and Labour would point to places where the air war would be a far bigger factor, and you might well see real shocks from third.

    You could then go seat by seat to estimate tactical voting (or lack of it). A pretty big task and unavoidably subjective.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
    What is clear, sadly, is that last summer's offensive campaign by Ukraine was a disaster. I think that there was a belief that the superior kit that they had received from NATO could cut through where the Russians had failed and they learned at terrible cost that that was not the case. There were also delusions that the Russians were running out of kit, ammunition, missiles, even men and one more heave could see their collapse. These delusions proved wildly optimistic and costly. Even with modern tech defence has enormous advantages in both shaping and using the battlefield to expose your enemy to the unspeakable power of modern weaponry.

    Ukraine now face several years of grim defence slowly losing ground for Russian lives. It is not an enticing prospect but we need to do all we can to help them.
    The thing that can change the calculation is long range weaponry. With long range weaponry Ukraine can hit Russian equipment and supplies away from the front line, and they can inflict damage without incurring casualties with a direct assault.

    Two years into the war and Ukraine still has fewer artillery shells, isn't being provided with all the long-range weapons the West has available, and it's having to rely on it's own drone developments to try to fill the gap.

    There's a route to victory for Ukraine which lies in providing Taurus, ATACMs, and using the much-vaunted economic superiority of the West to produce long-range missiles and artillery shells in sufficient quantity to obliterate the Russian Army from a distance. Get It Done.
    The Storm Shadows have certainly had a major impact, particularly in the Black Sea and they show the merits of your point. What we certainly need to do is to make the price of continued warfare simply unbearable for Russia bringing down Putin and his gang. Longer range weapons are a good way to do that and to retaliate against the never ending destruction of Ukrainian cities. I believe we can and should do this.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,204
    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    Fantastically bitchy list, bound to raise some hackles.

    https://x.com/Hush_Kit/status/1774379528313303299?s=20

    "Despite being named after a particularly delicious beef dish and being influenced by Vickers’ absolutely fantastic Wellesley, the Wellington was the most dull way to kill civilians. From its ‘scout hut in Reigate’ side windows to its vague vertical tail everything about the dreary Wellington screamed ‘I was found on an industrial estate’ and should have been left there."

    Agree particularly with the Skua. The local newsagent seem to have an inexhaustible stock of the Frog model of said aircraft, and Aberdeen was so boring in the 70s I ended up buying a few of them. It didn't get more interesting with repeat builds for sure.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
    What is clear, sadly, is that last summer's offensive campaign by Ukraine was a disaster. I think that there was a belief that the superior kit that they had received from NATO could cut through where the Russians had failed and they learned at terrible cost that that was not the case. There were also delusions that the Russians were running out of kit, ammunition, missiles, even men and one more heave could see their collapse. These delusions proved wildly optimistic and costly. Even with modern tech defence has enormous advantages in both shaping and using the battlefield to expose your enemy to the unspeakable power of modern weaponry.

    Ukraine now face several years of grim defence slowly losing ground for Russian lives. It is not an enticing prospect but we need to do all we can to help them.
    The thing that can change the calculation is long range weaponry. With long range weaponry Ukraine can hit Russian equipment and supplies away from the front line, and they can inflict damage without incurring casualties with a direct assault.

    Two years into the war and Ukraine still has fewer artillery shells, isn't being provided with all the long-range weapons the West has available, and it's having to rely on it's own drone developments to try to fill the gap.

    There's a route to victory for Ukraine which lies in providing Taurus, ATACMs, and using the much-vaunted economic superiority of the West to produce long-range missiles and artillery shells in sufficient quantity to obliterate the Russian Army from a distance. Get It Done.
    The Storm Shadows have certainly had a major impact, particularly in the Black Sea and they show the merits of your point. What we certainly need to do is to make the price of continued warfare simply unbearable for Russia bringing down Putin and his gang. Longer range weapons are a good way to do that and to retaliate against the never ending destruction of Ukrainian cities. I believe we can and should do this.
    I think this is where we see evidence of Ukraine suffering for the absence of Boris Johnson.

    We saw it with cycle infrastructure in London, with resolving the Brexit impasse, with the vaccines and with sending ammunition and weapons in February 2022. There have been these times when Boris Johnson recognised what needed to be done and made sure it was done, regardless of who it upset, or whether it broke convention.

    I didn't like the man. I cheered his downfall. But it seems clear that his successors, and other Western leaders, have failed to measure up to the example he set on Ukraine.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 778

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    Would it be also cynical to think that the UK is as usual reflexively following big daddy USA and concentrating on wearing little Ukraine-UJ badges rather than putting £s and weapons on the line (or even spouting BJ-esque bluster)?
    I don't know. Shapps released what looked like a very strong video from Kyiv recently, so the propaganda is still there. There are a few hints that Britain has been providing quite a lot of support behind the scenes - helping with the development of the sea drones that have been successful in the Black Sea, for example, and in suggestions that we might take German Taurus missiles so that we can send more Storm Shadows and they don't have to send their long-range missiles to Ukraine.

    But I do think Johnson would have pushed for more to be done if he was still PM. Sunak gives the appearance of going through the motions. I have a sense that they've looked at the British budget and military inventory first, and decided what can be spared, rather than looked at what Ukraine needs to win and worked out how to provide it.

    I fear that Starmer will be the same and will later decide it is futile. There's a real risk that Ukraine loses because the West chooses defeat.
    I agree, save for the last point. I think Starmer is just as committed as Johnson and it's his commitment to Ukraine that stops him using it as a stick to beat the Government. Generally I think Starmer subscribes to the view, formerly prominent in the US but pretty defunct since Iraq, that politics stops at the coast and the opposition should not be undermining the Government in foreign policy. When the election campaign starts I think we will see Labour talking about going further than the Government in support of Ukraine.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Passport to Gammonaco
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,962



    There's a route to victory for Ukraine which lies in providing Taurus, ATACMs, and using the much-vaunted economic superiority of the West to produce long-range missiles and artillery shells in sufficient quantity to obliterate the Russian Army from a distance. Get It Done.

    Biden can't have a out-of-control hot war in Eastern Europe spiking energy prices or inflation in an election year. The deadlock suits him just fine and the Republicans in Congress have conveniently given him cover for it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,557
    edited March 31

    Fantastically bitchy list, bound to raise some hackles.

    https://x.com/Hush_Kit/status/1774379528313303299?s=20

    "Despite being named after a particularly delicious beef dish and being influenced by Vickers’ absolutely fantastic Wellesley, the Wellington was the most dull way to kill civilians. From its ‘scout hut in Reigate’ side windows to its vague vertical tail everything about the dreary Wellington screamed ‘I was found on an industrial estate’ and should have been left there."

    Agree particularly with the Skua. The local newsagent seem to have an inexhaustible stock of the Frog model of said aircraft, and Aberdeen was so boring in the 70s I ended up buying a few of them. It didn't get more interesting with repeat builds for sure.

    A good read! Edit: and a good description of the Frog model, though I only ever made one. That was enough.

    TBF the Skua was actually a pretty good plane for dive-bombing ships in 1939-40. Trouble is there weren't that many German surface ships within range without Bf 109s to intervene. Or German ships at all.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    Dura_Ace said:



    There's a route to victory for Ukraine which lies in providing Taurus, ATACMs, and using the much-vaunted economic superiority of the West to produce long-range missiles and artillery shells in sufficient quantity to obliterate the Russian Army from a distance. Get It Done.

    Biden can't have a out-of-control hot war in Eastern Europe spiking energy prices or inflation in an election year. The deadlock suits him just fine and the Republicans in Congress have conveniently given him cover for it.
    Europe should be able to do what is needed without the US. If it isn't then it should work out how to become able to do so.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    edited March 31
    Unpopular said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    Would it be also cynical to think that the UK is as usual reflexively following big daddy USA and concentrating on wearing little Ukraine-UJ badges rather than putting £s and weapons on the line (or even spouting BJ-esque bluster)?
    I don't know. Shapps released what looked like a very strong video from Kyiv recently, so the propaganda is still there. There are a few hints that Britain has been providing quite a lot of support behind the scenes - helping with the development of the sea drones that have been successful in the Black Sea, for example, and in suggestions that we might take German Taurus missiles so that we can send more Storm Shadows and they don't have to send their long-range missiles to Ukraine.

    But I do think Johnson would have pushed for more to be done if he was still PM. Sunak gives the appearance of going through the motions. I have a sense that they've looked at the British budget and military inventory first, and decided what can be spared, rather than looked at what Ukraine needs to win and worked out how to provide it.

    I fear that Starmer will be the same and will later decide it is futile. There's a real risk that Ukraine loses because the West chooses defeat.
    I agree, save for the last point. I think Starmer is just as committed as Johnson and it's his commitment to Ukraine that stops him using it as a stick to beat the Government. Generally I think Starmer subscribes to the view, formerly prominent in the US but pretty defunct since Iraq, that politics stops at the coast and the opposition should not be undermining the Government in foreign policy. When the election campaign starts I think we will see Labour talking about going further than the Government in support of Ukraine.
    I fervently hope that this is right.

    If I thought it was right I would be certain to vote Labour at the GE.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    They just absolutely love leaving things.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    Dura_Ace said:



    There's a route to victory for Ukraine which lies in providing Taurus, ATACMs, and using the much-vaunted economic superiority of the West to produce long-range missiles and artillery shells in sufficient quantity to obliterate the Russian Army from a distance. Get It Done.

    Biden can't have a out-of-control hot war in Eastern Europe spiking energy prices or inflation in an election year. The deadlock suits him just fine and the Republicans in Congress have conveniently given him cover for it.
    Clearly it’s in Ukraine’s interests that Trump doesn’t win so not doing something that could help him seems logical .
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,557

    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Passport to Gammonaco
    Who plays Mr Farage? and Ms Hall?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    Carnyx said:

    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Passport to Gammonaco
    Who plays Mr Farage? and Ms Hall?
    Unfortunately the Carry On cast are mostly deceased, otherwise Sid James and Joan Sims would be shoo ins.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Worth reading the comments on this article to understand the Reform surge and why it will be so difficult to get them back.

    Do we have a Reform voter on PB? Would be a useful perspective.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,197
    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Farage won't thank the writer for banging on about Enoch Powell.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,557
    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Worth reading the comments on this article to understand the Reform surge and why it will be so difficult to get them back.

    Do we have a Reform voter on PB? Would be a useful perspective.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/mar/31/ads-london-mayor-susan-hall-tory-targets

    An interesting look at Tory (and Labour) advertising for MoL.

    'The labels picked by the Conservatives for their anti-Ulez messaging appeared to be being used to reach those who were more likely to have a car or to be older, and who therefore were more likely to “get angry”, he said. “It’s about button-pushing issues. So you look for what winds people up or gets them to act.”'

    Interestingly, the Tories positively conceal their ads from some people. If you like public transport, no way do you get to see the Tory ads.

    'As well as funding ads on Facebook and Instagram, both parties have paid for Google ads attacking their rival candidates, which show up under searches for each of their names. People searching “Sadiq Khan crime” are redirected to a Tory attack website. Those searching “Who is Susan Hall?” are shown an ad describing her as a “hard-right Tory candidate” who “hates London’s diversity” and directed to a website set up by Labour in her name, susanhall.uk.'
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,962
    Eabhal said:



    Do we have a Reform voter on PB? Would be a useful perspective.

    No browsers on a ZX81.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    Dura_Ace said:

    Eabhal said:



    Do we have a Reform voter on PB? Would be a useful perspective.

    No browsers on a ZX81.
    Now now. These characters are exceptionally active on Facebook, nextdoor, twitter etc
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,606
    Foxy said:

    Martin Lewis? I always had him as slightly left of centre.

    I think he is quite careful to avoid party politics in his pronouncements.

    The Reform to Mordaunt switchers in the header are an interesting group. They cannot be interested by her Woke policy's surely? Is it her sword carrying skills? Boufant hair, or colour of her skin?
    Martin Lewis applied to be a cross bench Lord and was rejected by Cameron.

    His view now is that he has as at least as much influence over his areas of knowledge now as he would if he were a cabinet minister so only Chancellor or PM has more, and he wouldn't want either for his mental health.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,833

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The rest of Europe will have to wake up to it sooner or later, because it’s not going away. Either Europe learns to defend itself, or we can all start learning to speak Russian. While it’s easy for the US to forget about a war 10,000 miles away, as many other domestic and foreign issues now dominate the news in an election year, it’s different when it’s on your own street and your neighbour needs all the help they can get. Every ‘old but serviceable’ military vehicle on the continent needs to be heading East, and there needs to be a co-ordinated effort to replace them at home. Oh, and start the Storm Shadow production line up again, that’s proven to be one of the most effective weapons in use in Ukraine, and they need as many as they can get their hands on.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150
    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Worth reading the comments on this article to understand the Reform surge and why it will be so difficult to get them back.

    Do we have a Reform voter on PB? Would be a useful perspective.
    Indeed. It is a tired and somewhat lazy assessment to assume that Reform voters are Tory voters making a protest who will come home at the election.

    So many of them were never Tory voters. And they did not come home in 2019....
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,200

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    Would it be also cynical to think that the UK is as usual reflexively following big daddy USA and concentrating on wearing little Ukraine-UJ badges rather than putting £s and weapons on the line (or even spouting BJ-esque bluster)?
    I think this is very much the case. Johnson’s support for Ukraine was always largely performative. Look at what Britain has given compared to Poland, Germany, Czechia. Relatively, not great.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,606

    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Worth reading the comments on this article to understand the Reform surge and why it will be so difficult to get them back.

    Do we have a Reform voter on PB? Would be a useful perspective.
    Indeed. It is a tired and somewhat lazy assessment to assume that Reform voters are Tory voters making a protest who will come home at the election.

    So many of them were never Tory voters. And they did not come home in 2019....
    I seem to be in a small minority who expect Farage to be Tory leader within the next few years. Interesting quote about Canada.....

    “Reform basically reverse took over the Conservatives and Stephen Harper became Prime Minister,” Farage explains. “If there was a model, it’s Canada."
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 778

    Unpopular said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The US has provided very little support in terms of ammunition and equipment for many months now. The baton is on the ground and gathering dust. The crisis is now.

    I am cynical enough to think that the French are more interested in helping Ukraine now that the US is not, because it is now possible for them to play the leading role, rather than a supporting one.
    Would it be also cynical to think that the UK is as usual reflexively following big daddy USA and concentrating on wearing little Ukraine-UJ badges rather than putting £s and weapons on the line (or even spouting BJ-esque bluster)?
    I don't know. Shapps released what looked like a very strong video from Kyiv recently, so the propaganda is still there. There are a few hints that Britain has been providing quite a lot of support behind the scenes - helping with the development of the sea drones that have been successful in the Black Sea, for example, and in suggestions that we might take German Taurus missiles so that we can send more Storm Shadows and they don't have to send their long-range missiles to Ukraine.

    But I do think Johnson would have pushed for more to be done if he was still PM. Sunak gives the appearance of going through the motions. I have a sense that they've looked at the British budget and military inventory first, and decided what can be spared, rather than looked at what Ukraine needs to win and worked out how to provide it.

    I fear that Starmer will be the same and will later decide it is futile. There's a real risk that Ukraine loses because the West chooses defeat.
    I agree, save for the last point. I think Starmer is just as committed as Johnson and it's his commitment to Ukraine that stops him using it as a stick to beat the Government. Generally I think Starmer subscribes to the view, formerly prominent in the US but pretty defunct since Iraq, that politics stops at the coast and the opposition should not be undermining the Government in foreign policy. When the election campaign starts I think we will see Labour talking about going further than the Government in support of Ukraine.
    I fervently hope that this is right.

    If I thought it was right I would be certain to vote Labour at the GE.
    The real question for me, with regards to so much, is whether Labour can deliver in Government, including in Ukraine. I'm not someone who thinks that, just because the Tories have failed, the problems facing us are unsolvable but the UK's (and Europe's) ability to act unilaterally is limited. Even with the political will to do it, and all the changes that would wring, it will take a long time before Europe is able to independently support Ukraine and by that point it may be too late.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,578

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. Happy easter, or whatever salutation and happiness fits your personal belief.

    There seems to be a growing sense out there of wanting to get this over and done with now.

    The problem is that this is now a meme. A trend. Or maybe more strong than that: a groundswell.

    If as I suspect Sunak holds on and on and on to late autumn they will do worse. Barely posible, but true. And their recovery base will be that much lower.

    A November GE is my expectation. The sheer stupidity of it - with countless senior Tories spending the entire autumn cheering on Trump and tying the Conservative brand to him - is absolutely quintessential Sunak.

    I think September or October. No way does Sunak want to face another Conference.
    They are coming for Sunak straight after the locals. Whilst I don't expect them to succeed, they will do yet more damage to the government with more holes below the water line.

    There is a very real risk that the government simply collapses. Truss lost authority over the party and was gone quickly. In this scenario Sunak can't be gone as he'd already defeated the May putsch attempt. So the government would be gone - a collapse election in the summer.

    If he makes it that far we can all conceive what the summer would be like. So calling an election as soon as parliament resumes at the start of September would make a lot of sense. Because we can all conceive what the Tory conference would be like!

    But as always, remember that the easiest decision is indecision. Letting things like conference just happen is an easy out...
    Quite right - what option is easiest and requires the least decisions? That happens more often than not.

    May onwards will be a zombie government, even more than now, dead but shambling on.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,200

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
    What is clear, sadly, is that last summer's offensive campaign by Ukraine was a disaster. I think that there was a belief that the superior kit that they had received from NATO could cut through where the Russians had failed and they learned at terrible cost that that was not the case. There were also delusions that the Russians were running out of kit, ammunition, missiles, even men and one more heave could see their collapse. These delusions proved wildly optimistic and costly. Even with modern tech defence has enormous advantages in both shaping and using the battlefield to expose your enemy to the unspeakable power of modern weaponry.

    Ukraine now face several years of grim defence slowly losing ground for Russian lives. It is not an enticing prospect but we need to do all we can to help them.
    The thing that can change the calculation is long range weaponry. With long range weaponry Ukraine can hit Russian equipment and supplies away from the front line, and they can inflict damage without incurring casualties with a direct assault.

    Two years into the war and Ukraine still has fewer artillery shells, isn't being provided with all the long-range weapons the West has available, and it's having to rely on it's own drone developments to try to fill the gap.

    There's a route to victory for Ukraine which lies in providing Taurus, ATACMs, and using the much-vaunted economic superiority of the West to produce long-range missiles and artillery shells in sufficient quantity to obliterate the Russian Army from a distance. Get It Done.
    The Storm Shadows have certainly had a major impact, particularly in the Black Sea and they show the merits of your point. What we certainly need to do is to make the price of continued warfare simply unbearable for Russia bringing down Putin and his gang. Longer range weapons are a good way to do that and to retaliate against the never ending destruction of Ukrainian cities. I believe we can and should do this.
    I think this is where we see evidence of Ukraine suffering for the absence of Boris Johnson.

    We saw it with cycle infrastructure in London, with resolving the Brexit impasse, with the vaccines and with sending ammunition and weapons in February 2022. There have been these times when Boris Johnson recognised what needed to be done and made sure it was done, regardless of who it upset, or whether it broke convention.

    I didn't like the man. I cheered his downfall. But it seems clear that his successors, and other Western leaders, have failed to measure up to the example he set on Ukraine.
    Nonsense. Johnson actually did rather little for Ukraine. He used his full skillset to make it look much more. Germany has delivered much more, but quietly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,833
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Worth reading the comments on this article to understand the Reform surge and why it will be so difficult to get them back.

    Do we have a Reform voter on PB? Would be a useful perspective.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/mar/31/ads-london-mayor-susan-hall-tory-targets

    An interesting look at Tory (and Labour) advertising for MoL.

    'The labels picked by the Conservatives for their anti-Ulez messaging appeared to be being used to reach those who were more likely to have a car or to be older, and who therefore were more likely to “get angry”, he said. “It’s about button-pushing issues. So you look for what winds people up or gets them to act.”'

    Interestingly, the Tories positively conceal their ads from some people. If you like public transport, no way do you get to see the Tory ads.

    'As well as funding ads on Facebook and Instagram, both parties have paid for Google ads attacking their rival candidates, which show up under searches for each of their names. People searching “Sadiq Khan crime” are redirected to a Tory attack website. Those searching “Who is Susan Hall?” are shown an ad describing her as a “hard-right Tory candidate” who “hates London’s diversity” and directed to a website set up by Labour in her name, susanhall.uk.'
    The creeping Americanisation (or should that be Americanization?) of British politics - and not in a good way. Thankfully there’s not the pervasive TV attack ads yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,578

    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Worth reading the comments on this article to understand the Reform surge and why it will be so difficult to get them back.

    Do we have a Reform voter on PB? Would be a useful perspective.
    Indeed. It is a tired and somewhat lazy assessment to assume that Reform voters are Tory voters making a protest who will come home at the election.

    So many of them were never Tory voters. And they did not come home in 2019....
    The main issue is even if most reform voters are disaffected tories, it doesn't follow they will come home this year. If they are angry or despondent enough, or don't fear Labour enough, they won't feel a need to return.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    France is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, which will include hundreds of "old but serviceable" armored vehicles and Aster missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said in an interview with La Tribune, Le Monde reports.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1774355574672458035

    France is one of the countries that is starting to understand the threat
    The threat from Europe's point of view is that the US drops the baton if Trump is elected. All European countries, including us, should be gearing up to fill the hole if that happens.
    The point of all the tedious Trent style propaganda is to create a perception that the Russian invasion can't be defeated, and that we should bow to the inevitable.

    It's considerably more likely that a regular and reliable supply of western arms would see the opposite outcome.

    And Putin isn't offering peace anyway. He's demanding capitulation, with no guarantees.

    We can stop him now, or we can stop him next time, when he's rebuilt his military, at far greater cost.
    What is clear, sadly, is that last summer's offensive campaign by Ukraine was a disaster. I think that there was a belief that the superior kit that they had received from NATO could cut through where the Russians had failed and they learned at terrible cost that that was not the case. There were also delusions that the Russians were running out of kit, ammunition, missiles, even men and one more heave could see their collapse. These delusions proved wildly optimistic and costly. Even with modern tech defence has enormous advantages in both shaping and using the battlefield to expose your enemy to the unspeakable power of modern weaponry.

    Ukraine now face several years of grim defence slowly losing ground for Russian lives. It is not an enticing prospect but we need to do all we can to help them.
    The thing that can change the calculation is long range weaponry. With long range weaponry Ukraine can hit Russian equipment and supplies away from the front line, and they can inflict damage without incurring casualties with a direct assault.

    Two years into the war and Ukraine still has fewer artillery shells, isn't being provided with all the long-range weapons the West has available, and it's having to rely on it's own drone developments to try to fill the gap.

    There's a route to victory for Ukraine which lies in providing Taurus, ATACMs, and using the much-vaunted economic superiority of the West to produce long-range missiles and artillery shells in sufficient quantity to obliterate the Russian Army from a distance. Get It Done.
    The Storm Shadows have certainly had a major impact, particularly in the Black Sea and they show the merits of your point. What we certainly need to do is to make the price of continued warfare simply unbearable for Russia bringing down Putin and his gang. Longer range weapons are a good way to do that and to retaliate against the never ending destruction of Ukrainian cities. I believe we can and should do this.
    I think this is where we see evidence of Ukraine suffering for the absence of Boris Johnson.

    We saw it with cycle infrastructure in London, with resolving the Brexit impasse, with the vaccines and with sending ammunition and weapons in February 2022. There have been these times when Boris Johnson recognised what needed to be done and made sure it was done, regardless of who it upset, or whether it broke convention.

    I didn't like the man. I cheered his downfall. But it seems clear that his successors, and other Western leaders, have failed to measure up to the example he set on Ukraine.
    I dislike and distrust Johnson intensely, but he did occasionally get things right, though for every cycle scheme there was a garden bridge flop, or a scrapped water cannon. For every lockdown or furlough there was a party or delayed lockdown. Brexit was his biggest mistake and like Suez for Eden will be written on his political grave. Ukraine was something he got right. Electorally he won the last Tory majority for a generation, and possibly the last one of our lifetimes.

    He generated ideas like monkeys on typewriters and every now and then produced something readable.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,898

    Tres said:

    Talk about appetite for outer London to secede from Sadiq Khan's Greater London continues - latest Farage interview https://unherd.com/2024/03/the-village-that-made-nigel-farage/

    Passport to Gammonaco
    One of my sons lives in Westerham, not too far from Downe. I don’t know who he mixes with there, but some of his attitudes would do credit to his (increasingly right-wing with age) grandfather. With whom I regularly argued.
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