Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
My main memory of him was his threat to respond to Brexit by preventing aeroplanes from UK airspace from flying over Ireland - which struck me as a) wildly disproportionately bellicose, and b) weirdly blind to the amount of Irish air traffic which crosses the UK.
Also completely forgetting that affluent, parasitic Ireland, which spends a ridiculous 0.3% of GDP on defence, relies entirely on the UK and the RAF - and UK taxpayers - to defend that Irish airspace
Is that really the case?!! I can't believe I've not heard this revelation before!
The Irish government doesn't maintain any aircraft capable of intercepting... anything
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Im Irish, I dont hate the English. My kids are in the 1 in 6 Britons with Irish blood. Why should I hate them.
If the Poles can have civil relations with the Germans given what they have been through why should it be ok for the Irish to hate their neighbours ?
Knuckle dragger.
I'm not saying any Irish person has to hate the English or England, the British or the UK. I'm just saying if they do they get a free pass. And yeah, I would understand if say holocaust survivors in Poland or elsewhere still had an irrational hatred of Germany.
Do I get a free pass to hate Germans for 1914-18 and 1939-45?
I mean all of the elites of Europe were responsible for the first World War, and the second World War was (in many ways) the outcome of the European failure to make a stable settlement after the first. But there is also a whole world of difference between periods of war and centuries of occupation. The lesson I learn from WW1 and WW2 is to hate the aristocracy and don't trust the right - take whatever lessons you want from it yourself.
So you think the Irish should hate the British for what the elites of the UK did, but that doesn't apply elsewhere?
Double standards, working from a set position of this country = bad.
Incidently, should the people of Cornwall be hating on the Algerians?
It seems that even a well funded AI startup can't afford the next generation of processes and have a truck load of the current generation processes which they aren't using 100%...
And yes I know the people actually interested in this are probably a total of about 4 people on here..
As was suggested yesterday, the senior CS doing their own thing without reference to the ministers actually in charge. And as soon as Hunt found out the decision was quickly sent back down the line to be undone.
At this point it’s almost deliberate, with the permenant staff determined to undermine the elected representatives by generating negative headlines.
We saw the same in 1996 and 1997.
More like the government we've known for several years, whose arse doesn't know what its elbow is doing.
Nor is requiring voter IDs necessarily vote suppression -- if governments make it easy to acquire such IDs, which can be generally useful. In my home state of Washington, which does make it easy, such IDs allow me to open a bank account, and purchase alcohol.
(In the US, when gerrymanders were almost always committed by Democrats, many leftists ignored them, found them amusing, or even admired their ingenuity.)
As was suggested yesterday, the senior CS doing their own thing without reference to the ministers actually in charge. And as soon as Hunt found out the decision was quickly sent back down the line to be undone.
At this point it’s almost deliberate, with the permenant staff determined to undermine the elected representatives by generating negative headlines.
We saw the same in 1996 and 1997.
More like the government we've known for several years, whose arse doesn't know what its elbow is doing.
They were allowed to close the call centre last year.
Previously they've just quietly shunted workers elsewhere and left the call centre on minimal staffing - so I suspect that's what they will do this year. So it just hides the problem while keeping services dire..
As was suggested yesterday, the senior CS doing their own thing without reference to the ministers actually in charge. And as soon as Hunt found out the decision was quickly sent back down the line to be undone.
At this point it’s almost deliberate, with the permenant staff determined to undermine the elected representatives by generating negative headlines.
We saw the same in 1996 and 1997.
More like the government we've known for several years, whose arse doesn't know what its elbow is doing.
The other one is an old tactic - when the management function gets its budget pressured, it floats a plan to cut services.
The classic, years back, under Major (I think) was an admin in the NHS. Who sent an email, boasting of her genius - when confronted with a freeze on management spending in her dept. she sent warning notices of incoming staff cuts to all the oncology nurses working at Great Ormand Street hospital. To get *that* in the papers and cause the freeze to be cancelled.
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
You think thats news ? By definition my family are famine survivors. We dont see the point in hating anyone. The Germans murdered something like 5 million Poles. Within living memory.
Ireland needs to move on, theres no excuse for it.
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
My main memory of him was his threat to respond to Brexit by preventing aeroplanes from UK airspace from flying over Ireland - which struck me as a) wildly disproportionately bellicose, and b) weirdly blind to the amount of Irish air traffic which crosses the UK.
Also completely forgetting that affluent, parasitic Ireland, which spends a ridiculous 0.3% of GDP on defence, relies entirely on the UK and the RAF - and UK taxpayers - to defend that Irish airspace
Is that really the case?!! I can't believe I've not heard this revelation before!
Are you - a Scot Nat - actually criticising someone for repeating an argument, and returning to a talking point? Really???
It is never difficult to distinguish between a gammony old Britnat steeped in decades of Paddyphobia and a ray of sunshine.
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
You think thats news ? By definition my family are famine survivors. We dont see the point in hating anyone. The Germans murdered something like 5 million Poles. Within living memory.
Ireland needs to move on, theres no excuse for it.
I'm trying to list the countries my family should hate on.
- Russia - Ukraine - Poland - Germany - France - Ireland
As was suggested yesterday, the senior CS doing their own thing without reference to the ministers actually in charge. And as soon as Hunt found out the decision was quickly sent back down the line to be undone.
At this point it’s almost deliberate, with the permenant staff determined to undermine the elected representatives by generating negative headlines.
We saw the same in 1996 and 1997.
More like the government we've known for several years, whose arse doesn't know what its elbow is doing.
They were allowed to close the call centre last year.
Previously they've just quietly shunted workers elsewhere and left the call centre on minimal staffing - so I suspect that's what they will do this year. So it just hides the problem while keeping services dire..
It's a fucking shambles.
I have a letter asking me to call them to confirm a minor point. Tried multiple times, wait time 'at least 50 minutes'. No way I am doing this.
So I went online via government gateway to send them a message that way. But it says I can only do this if their letter says I can. It doesn't.
So they are (were) trying to close the phone option without first allowing communication electronically.
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
You think thats news ? By definition my family are famine survivors. We dont see the point in hating anyone. The Germans murdered something like 5 million Poles. Within living memory.
Ireland needs to move on, theres no excuse for it.
I didn’t say it was news. I agree no one should be hating anyone.
Do we know why he's gone? Eg was losing that referendum a factor?
There's the stench of death around Fine Gael at the moment. A large number of their sitting TDs are retiring at the next election. There was quite a chance of a heave after the local and European elections, and Varadkar has chosen to go before being pushed.
The Irish should get in line behind Pakistanis and Indians for those screwed over by the Brits.
I raise you the Bengal famine.
If anyone should hate anyone I volunteer the entire populations of Latin America via a vis the Spanish/Portuguese
I’ve been reading a LOT of conquistador history this last month in Colombia. My god the cruelty and the death tolls. Some populations were reduced by 95% in a few generations - or quicker than that if they were rebellious
The British - despite the size of their empire - were benign pussycsts in comparison
The Iberians maybe even beat the Mongols. Ie even if you immediately and peacefully surrendered, the Spanish still killed you all with slavery or by sending you down silver mines
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
You think thats news ? By definition my family are famine survivors. We dont see the point in hating anyone. The Germans murdered something like 5 million Poles. Within living memory.
Ireland needs to move on, theres no excuse for it.
I'm trying to list the countries my family should hate on.
- Russia - Ukraine - Poland - Germany - France - Ireland
etc.
The ancestry my family have so far managed to trace all leads to the same rather normcore cul de sac. Stout yeoman stock of olde England. Kulaks with likely Norman ancestry at least on the paternal side.
Unfortunately that means we don’t get a free pass to hate anyone. Not even the Normans. Not even the upper class.
My DNA profile however suggests substantial French/German/Swiss content but that may not help with the whole justifiable grievance thing.
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
With your somewhat mangled English are you trying to say Turkey is surprisingly cheap? If you are, then it is true - the Turkish lira is in the toilet and has been for some time
Reeves in the papers this morning promising not to repeat the many mistakes of new labour.
She’s a smart operator.
She confirms what so many in Labour have denied for years.
As Cyclefree so often reminds us, you can address a problem until you acknowledge it exists.
If I thought that Reeves was seriously going to address our biggest key weakness, namely our trade deficit, which Brown persuaded himself did not matter in a world of floating currencies, I would be tempted to vote for her myself. It would involve serious pain to do it in terms of reduced consumption and much reduced borrowing so I will believe it when I see it.
Blaming New Labour for importing cheap Chinese consumer products doesn't reveal the source of the problem.
De-industrialisation and the sale of UK assets overseas in the 1980s started the ball rolling. Resolving the industrial manufacturing strife of the 1970s by eradicating industrial manufacturing for domestic consumption was a crap idea in the first place, but it turns out one wholly incompatible with Brexit.
Good luck to Reeves if she ever becomes CoE, but I don't see how this genie is ever returned to the bottle.
Domestic manufacturing damaged itself. Not continuing to subsidise corpses was simply non-insane.
U.K. manufacturing is alive and doing quite well. The meme that it doesn’t exist seems embedded in parts of the Left.
You can not deny a decline. Here's a pretty comprehensive explanation, and it is happy to shower the blame on everyone.
The decline happened because of a blank refusal, especially in heavy industry, to invest in the future and change methods. By the management, government and unions.
Going round some of the old industrial sites - they had machinery from before WWII. In places that closed in the 70s and 80s.
Let's take the motor industry. In the early 1970s British Leyland was the fourth largest automotive group behind General Motors, Ford, and I think Toyota.
British Leyland, Volkswagen and Renault were in trouble. Volkswagen were baled out by the West German Government and a growth plan was set in place including modernising model lines and manufacturing techniques. Renault was nationalised and did likewise. What remains of British Leyland is owned by the Germans, the Indians and the Chinese.
MG Rover was doing fine, especially when partnered with Honda, did well all through the nineties.
The business died under which govt ?
They really weren't going anywhere in the 1990s. BMW bought Austin Rover for 4x4 technology. The Honda tie up continued but was not wanted by BMW who sold Land Rover to Ford, kept the new Mini which it had developed and pulled the plug on the ex-Honda ( plus MGF and Rover 75) passenger car operation.
In their panic the Labour Government and BMW threw money at the Phoenix Four whose behaviour was dishonest and contemptible. By the time the Labour Government told Towers enough was enough and the Longbrdge site had long been dead in the water. I am not sure why you brought the party politics element into the ultimate failure. The Labour Government should have pulled the plug back in 2000, and for that you have a point.
I have read Wayfaring Stranger, by James Lee Burke
James Lee Burke has - in my opinion - a decent claim to be one of the greatest living American writers, if not the greatest. You'll find him classifed under Crime, but he only writes fiction about crime in the sense that the Old Testament of the King James Bible is about crime, or the Mayor of Casterbridge is about crime. Burke writes about salvation and damnation, about the small guilts felt by evil people for their acts, and the great guilts felt by good people for not preventing acts of evil. Burke writes about people who get caught up by the gales of corruption and violence, and try to stand their ground.
His writing is filled with deep love for his native Louisiana, particularly the bayous of the coast, and his anger at the destruction of its environment and culture during his lifetime. If you have visited the area, you will recognise it and its people completely from his writing; if you haven't, there can be no greater way to immerse yourself in the atmosphere and soul than to read these books.
James Lee Burke has written 42 novels, of which I have read 30. The first was published in 1965, when he was 29. The 42nd will be published this June. He is 87 years old. Every time one of his books comes out, I worry that it will be the last, and every time a book is announced I feel relief that it won't be, not just yet.
Wayfaring Stranger is not the greatest of his books, but as the start of a sequence about the Holland family, it's not a bad place to start, in post-war Texas as Weldon Holland comes out of the Army to start an oil pipeline construction company, and comes face to face with everything from gangsters to racism to casual environmental vandalism to Hollywood venality. His writing is as lyrical as ever, but perhaps there is a little loss of focus with the camera pulled back so far, and a little too much deus ex machina at the end. But I would still rther read James Lee Burke than almost anyone.
Do we know why he's gone? Eg was losing that referendum a factor?
There's the stench of death around Fine Gael at the moment. A large number of their sitting TDs are retiring at the next election. There was quite a chance of a heave after the local and European elections, and Varadkar has chosen to go before being pushed.
Nor is requiring voter IDs necessarily vote suppression -- if governments make it easy to acquire such IDs, which can be generally useful. In my home state of Washington, which does make it easy, such IDs allow me to open a bank account, and purchase alcohol.
(In the US, when gerrymanders were almost always committed by Democrats, many leftists ignored them, found them amusing, or even admired their ingenuity.)
We have broadened the meaning of gerrymandering to include any institutional thumb on the scale.
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
With your somewhat mangled English are you trying to say Turkey is surprisingly cheap? If you are, then it is true - the Turkish lira is in the toilet and has been for some time
Nope he's saying that a holiday that cost the equivalent of £1600 (today's prices) back in 2014 now costs £3000 instead of £1600..
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
Do we know why he's gone? Eg was losing that referendum a factor?
There's the stench of death around Fine Gael at the moment. A large number of their sitting TDs are retiring at the next election. There was quite a chance of a heave after the local and European elections, and Varadkar has chosen to go before being pushed.
Though on current polls they are on 20%, same as they got in 2020. SF are up from 24% to 27% in the latest poll, FF down from 22% to 18%, the Greens down from 7% to 4% and the SDs up from 2% to 7%. Labour, Aontu and PBP unchanged
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
Do we know why he's gone? Eg was losing that referendum a factor?
There's the stench of death around Fine Gael at the moment. A large number of their sitting TDs are retiring at the next election. There was quite a chance of a heave after the local and European elections, and Varadkar has chosen to go before being pushed.
Who was it upthread that compared FineGael to the Tories?
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
You think thats news ? By definition my family are famine survivors. We dont see the point in hating anyone. The Germans murdered something like 5 million Poles. Within living memory.
Ireland needs to move on, theres no excuse for it.
Wasn't there that great quote about Irish history - the problem is that the Irish can never forget it and the Brits can never remember it.
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
I've just got round to reading Rachel Reeves's speech from last night. It's excellent: an intellectually coherent, thoughtful, knowledgeable, well-referenced analysis of where we are, how we got there, and what needs to be done. It should be taken seriously given the job she'll almost certainly have by the end of the year.
I'm not suggesting for a moment that all will agree with her analysis or her remedies, but I'd gently suggest that those from across the political spectrum would find it thought-provoking. Indeed, as a leftie I have some disagreements with it. I know it's been linked to earlier in the thread (thanks, whoever it was), but I'll link again to encourage folk to have a read if they haven't looked at it. It's really worth a read, rather than just relying on press reports, I think. https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/rachel-reeves-mais-lecture/
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
With your somewhat mangled English are you trying to say Turkey is surprisingly cheap? If you are, then it is true - the Turkish lira is in the toilet and has been for some time
Nope he's saying that a holiday that cost the equivalent of £1600 (today's prices) back in 2014 now costs £3000 instead of £1600..
Do we know why he's gone? Eg was losing that referendum a factor?
There's the stench of death around Fine Gael at the moment. A large number of their sitting TDs are retiring at the next election. There was quite a chance of a heave after the local and European elections, and Varadkar has chosen to go before being pushed.
Though on current polls they are on 20%, same as they got in 2020. SF are up from 24% to 27% in the latest poll, FF down from 22% to 18%, the Greens down from 7% to 4% and the SDs up from 2% to 7%. Labour, Aontu and PBP unchanged
That's true, but the 20.9% received by FG in 2020 was their worst general election vote share since 1948. If SF had stood more candidates then FG would have gone into opposition.
So for their polling not to improve upon 2020 leaves them in a bad way.
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
With your somewhat mangled English are you trying to say Turkey is surprisingly cheap? If you are, then it is true - the Turkish lira is in the toilet and has been for some time
Nope he's saying that a holiday that cost the equivalent of £1600 (today's prices) back in 2014 now costs £3000 instead of £1600..
Like for like? What happens if you look outside of the international tourist wranglers?
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
With your somewhat mangled English are you trying to say Turkey is surprisingly cheap? If you are, then it is true - the Turkish lira is in the toilet and has been for some time
Nope he's saying that a holiday that cost the equivalent of £1600 (today's prices) back in 2014 now costs £3000 instead of £1600..
Gratz on your translation skills
Turkey is a popular holiday destination for Muslim families as pretty much everything is Halal, and it is cheaper and safer than the Middle East.
Apprentice fans will know last week's task was set in Bulgaria, doubtless subsidised by that county's tourist board. (Vineyards and boats down the Danube, since you ask.)
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Nor is requiring voter IDs necessarily vote suppression -- if governments make it easy to acquire such IDs, which can be generally useful. In my home state of Washington, which does make it easy, such IDs allow me to open a bank account, and purchase alcohol.
(In the US, when gerrymanders were almost always committed by Democrats, many leftists ignored them, found them amusing, or even admired their ingenuity.)
We have broadened the meaning of gerrymandering to include any institutional thumb on the scale.
The point wasn't the voter ID it was the very specific nature of the ID listed. That was what gave away the game away to everyone paying attention.
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
He is younger than both Biden and Trump.
You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is. Given the net negative approval ratings of both Biden and Trump, especially amongst Independents, many Independent voters in particular could go for RFK Jnr
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Disease likely did the majority of the killing. Population crash was of a similar magnitude in North America in the early colonial period (though more poorly documented).
Do we know why he's gone? Eg was losing that referendum a factor?
There's the stench of death around Fine Gael at the moment. A large number of their sitting TDs are retiring at the next election. There was quite a chance of a heave after the local and European elections, and Varadkar has chosen to go before being pushed.
Though on current polls they are on 20%, same as they got in 2020. SF are up from 24% to 27% in the latest poll, FF down from 22% to 18%, the Greens down from 7% to 4% and the SDs up from 2% to 7%. Labour, Aontu and PBP unchanged
That's true, but the 20.9% received by FG in 2020 was their worst general election vote share since 1948. If SF had stood more candidates then FG would have gone into opposition.
So for their polling not to improve upon 2020 leaves them in a bad way.
On that I agree, like the Tories they will likely have to rebuild in opposition
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
He is younger than both Biden and Trump.
You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is and given the net negative approval ratings of both Biden and Trump, especially amongst Independents, many Independent voters in particular could go for RFK Jnr
But equal in nuttiness to Trump - and sounds as though he's been gargling iron filings (what is it with his voice - is it something medical ?).
Reckon that resignation of Leo Varadakar likely has WAY more to do (on the political side) with recent, epic failure of two Irish constitutional referendums.
Reckon that resignation of Leo Varadakar likely has WAY more to do (on the political side) with recent, epic failure of two Irish constitutional referendums.
Do we know why he's gone? Eg was losing that referendum a factor?
There's the stench of death around Fine Gael at the moment. A large number of their sitting TDs are retiring at the next election. There was quite a chance of a heave after the local and European elections, and Varadkar has chosen to go before being pushed.
Who was it upthread that compared FineGael to the Tories?
HYUFD. Complete with er, ethnic appraisal.
"Fine Gael are effectively the Tories sister party in Ireland so probably [rejoicing at Mr V's departure will be] not from Sunak, also a centre right PM of Indian heritage"
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Sorry, I meant in "modern" times.
Then its your comparisons which are at fault
If you are about to be colonised or conquered then in absolute numbers a visit from the Spaniards (or the Lusitanians) is your worst possible outcome
Being aborigine in British Australia wasn’t great, some say the total aboriginal population declined ~80%, although that was over two centuries and the British never set out to enslave or slaughter the locals as a matter of policy (unlike the Iberians) - it was mainly disease, booze, despair, which killed the aborigine populations
"Reeves went on to confirm that Labour would retain the government’s fiscal rule that debt should fall in the fifth year of the forecast."
This is from the NS comment on the Mais speech. A question for the experts (which I am not). This 'debt will fall in/by year 5' stuff, common to Tory and Labour. Is this a fixed target (ie starting in say April 2023 or whatever, and if so when did it start) or is this in fact a new dodge of a moving target, whereby every year the policy remains an aspiration for a further 5 years ahead, and so can never fail?
I have a strange feeling this is a new piece of conjuring. Am I right?
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
He is younger than both Biden and Trump.
You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is and given the net negative approval ratings of both Biden and Trump, especially amongst Independents, many Independent voters in particular could go for RFK Jnr
But equal in nuttiness to Trump - and sounds as though he's been gargling iron filings (what is it with his voice - is it something medical ?).
He is more pro action on climate change and pro civil rights than Trump, more supportive of unions, less hardline on controlling the border and deporting immigrants and wants to abolish interest rates on student loans and more pro civil liberties and anti censorship, surveillance and incarceration than Trump or Biden. Though like Trump anti vaccine mandates and lockdowns and sceptical of US involvement in Ukraine. He is targeting younger voters and Independents in particular https://www.kennedy24.com/policies
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
He is younger than both Biden and Trump.
You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is. Given the net negative approval ratings of both Biden and Trump, especially amongst Independents, many Independent voters in particular could go for RFK Jnr
'You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is'
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Disease likely did the majority of the killing. Population crash was of a similar magnitude in North America in the early colonial period (though more poorly documented).
No one is saying (or should use the word) genocide but disease importation was cataclysmic as Leon says for the native American/Aztec population having been brought over by - googles - Francisco Eguía amongst others.
Do we know why he's gone? Eg was losing that referendum a factor?
There's the stench of death around Fine Gael at the moment. A large number of their sitting TDs are retiring at the next election. There was quite a chance of a heave after the local and European elections, and Varadkar has chosen to go before being pushed.
Who was it upthread that compared FineGael to the Tories?
HYUFD. Complete with er, ethnic appraisal.
"Fine Gael are effectively the Tories sister party in Ireland so probably [rejoicing at Mr V's departure will be] not from Sunak, also a centre right PM of Indian heritage"
Fine Gael also emerged from supporters of Michael Collins, who backed the Anglo Irish Treaty, unlike De Valera's FF and SF
@MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal
Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.
I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
Starmer is unfair when he accuses Sunak of not believing in Rwanda. Sunak does believe in Rwanda, which is a problem because if you believe in that you will believe anything.
Is there any reason to not believe in Rwanda? I mean, it has a Wikipedia page and all, so it probably exists.
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
He is younger than both Biden and Trump.
You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is. Given the net negative approval ratings of both Biden and Trump, especially amongst Independents, many Independent voters in particular could go for RFK Jnr
'You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is'
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Disease likely did the majority of the killing. Population crash was of a similar magnitude in North America in the early colonial period (though more poorly documented).
Certainly a lot of disease, smallpox &c
However on various islands, especially, the Spanish basically destroyed whole populations with actual murder and brutal forced labour. Also in the mines of Bolivia
It’s one reason I am now obsessed with the Kogi people in this bit of Colombia. WHAT a survival. They only survived because they kept going higher and higher up these coastal mountains. Intriguingly, their first retreat from the coast occurred as “Colombia” was invaded by brutal colonisers (possibly cannibalistic) from the Caribbean - long before the Europeans showed up
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
What do you suggest the UK's diplomatic approach to the Federal Republic Of Germany should be?
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Sorry, I meant in "modern" times.
Then its your comparisons which are at fault
If you are about to be colonised or conquered then in absolute numbers a visit from the Spaniards (or the Lusitanians) is your worst possible outcome
Being aborigine in British Australia wasn’t great, some say the total aboriginal population declined ~80%, although that was over two centuries and the British never set out to enslave or slaughter the locals as a matter of policy (unlike the Iberians) - it was mainly disease, booze, despair, which killed the aborigine populations
So about time for us to "welcome" his colleague "Dewey" as next PB pop-up pimping for Putin?
Though IMHO either "Henry Wallace" or "Strom Thurmond" would be WAY more appropriate!
Truman obviously realized that banging on about Ukraine and COVID was too obvious, so opted instead to demoralize the West and sow division and confusion by pointing out how shit the British weather can be. (Worth a try I suppose, but Australians and Californians have already cornered that market.)
@MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal
Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.
I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
And those betting on turnout levels. Will disgruntled ex Tories vote Lib Dem or stay at home?
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Sorry, I meant in "modern" times.
Even then, that's possibly untrue.
The Great Famine saw a population fall of around 20-25% - but perhaps half of that was from emigration. The Korean and Vietnam wars a century later (though numbers are every bit as uncertain as in Ireland) quite possibly saw similar death rates in a similar same space of time.
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Disease likely did the majority of the killing. Population crash was of a similar magnitude in North America in the early colonial period (though more poorly documented).
Certainly a lot of disease, smallpox &c
However on various islands, especially, the Spanish basically destroyed whole populations with actual murder and brutal forced labour. Also in the mines of Bolivia
It’s one reason I am now obsessed with the Kogi people in this bit of Colombia. WHAT a survival. They only survived because they kept going higher and higher up these coastal mountains. Intriguingly, their first retreat from the coast occurred as “Colombia” was invaded by brutal colonisers (possibly cannibalistic) from the Caribbean - long before the Europeans showed up
The Rest is History did a fantastic eight-part series on the fall of the Aztecs and it really is an amazing time in history with extraordinary consequences.
"Reeves went on to confirm that Labour would retain the government’s fiscal rule that debt should fall in the fifth year of the forecast."
This is from the NS comment on the Mais speech. A question for the experts (which I am not). This 'debt will fall in/by year 5' stuff, common to Tory and Labour. Is this a fixed target (ie starting in say April 2023 or whatever, and if so when did it start) or is this in fact a new dodge of a moving target, whereby every year the policy remains an aspiration for a further 5 years ahead, and so can never fail?
I have a strange feeling this is a new piece of conjuring. Am I right?
I don't know how new it is, but it doesn't seem to impose much discipline on a Chancellor.
They only have to keep the budget within five years of adjustment of balance, which is more than a little leeway.
I guess the only striking thing about it is that Liz Truss wasn't able or willing to even meet that weak constraint.
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
He is younger than both Biden and Trump.
You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is. Given the net negative approval ratings of both Biden and Trump, especially amongst Independents, many Independent voters in particular could go for RFK Jnr
'You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is'
At PMQs Mr Sunak seemed a little more sprightly. He wasn't just going through the motions. It seems that No 10 have worked out that at the moment he has to be speaking to the electorate sat behind him rather than to the electorate out in the country. No double the inflation figures will have helped with that.
So the performance was much more energetic. However, he tends to get rather shrill when he is excited and that isn't very good. The best comparison is perhaps with Kinnock. Also Mr Sunak needs much better ammunition if he is to trouble, let alone wound, Starmer.
At the moment Sir Keir could echo the Iron Duke every week - 'They came on in the same old way and we sent them back in the same old way.' But as the weeks tick off his people are no doubt amused to watch time wasted by the Cons on the same old impotent lines
@MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal
Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.
I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite
However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
With your somewhat mangled English are you trying to say Turkey is surprisingly cheap? If you are, then it is true - the Turkish lira is in the toilet and has been for some time
Quite the opposite , ie 3K versus the 1.6K it should be, though many years of 80%+ inflation in Turkey has probably contributed.
@MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal
Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.
I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite
However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
Prediction: RFK Jr will sink without a trace come November (1-2% of vote compared to average of around 12% in current 5-way polling). He's probably artificially high in the polls because people see 'Jr' and think he must be the candidate who is below retirement age.
I disagree, he is already as you say around 10% in some polls.
With Biden and Trump both net negative in the polls in approval ratings and Trump having criminal cases to come RFK Jr could get the highest 3rd party vote since Perot.
Appealing to Trumpites who won't vote for Trump if convicted in court and who like RFK Jr's vaccine mandate and lockdown opposition and to Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza
'already 10%' implies that his numbers are rising, but they aren't. If anything they have gone down since he announced his candidacy. He had polls over 20% a few months ago.
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr? He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
He is younger than both Biden and Trump.
You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is. Given the net negative approval ratings of both Biden and Trump, especially amongst Independents, many Independent voters in particular could go for RFK Jnr
'You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is'
Kennedy is polling 15% on average, indeed he reached 22% with one Quinnipiac, even higher than Perot got, with Biden on 38% and Trump on 36%. On average through most of 2016 Johnson was polling less than 10%
@MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal
Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.
I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite
However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
Here, in a jungly guest house on the Caribbean coast in Palomino, Colombia, there is modest rejoicing
Varadkar is an odious, Anglophobic Woke twat
If any people have a right to hate the UK / Britain / England - it's the Irish. I can't even be bothered to go into the conversation as to whether or not Varadkar is Anglophobic or not; I am willing to defend the proposition that Irish people are allowed to hold nothing but disdain for the UK Government, the monarchy, and even its peoples, based on the long and bloody history of violence enacted on the Irish and the island of Ireland throughout the last half century going up to disgusting crimes committed within many of our life times.
The colonial wars, the genocide, the occupations, the use of sectarian divisions, the war crimes etc. etc. And like it's hard to even be like "pffft, the past is in the past" when that only really stopped in the 90s. Barely a generation ago.
Barely a generation ago the Irish were slaughtering British civilians on the streets of London. I know this because I actually SAW one bomb go off
Otherwise, good point
As ever republic apologists just ignore the grim details. Irish republicans have killed more Irish Catholics than anyone else. Though laundries run by nuns give them a run for their money.
The potato famine killed maybe a million. That beats your examples.
I once read the Atlas of World Population History, in the reference section of my local library. It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries. The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
That’s bollocks. Look at some of the data from the Americas
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
Sorry, I meant in "modern" times.
Then its your comparisons which are at fault
If you are about to be colonised or conquered then in absolute numbers a visit from the Spaniards (or the Lusitanians) is your worst possible outcome
Being aborigine in British Australia wasn’t great, some say the total aboriginal population declined ~80%, although that was over two centuries and the British never set out to enslave or slaughter the locals as a matter of policy (unlike the Iberians) - it was mainly disease, booze, despair, which killed the aborigine populations
I bet you like the smell of your own farts too.
isn’t that a classically German trait? That’s why they have those weird “shelves” in their bogs
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
Most of the time you will save a huge chunk of money (maybe £1000 in this case) and get something at least as good if you buy the components separately: low cost flight, hotel or flat on aggregator or hotel chain site, taxi transfers to airport, pay as you go for meals. Most tourist places have any number of companies offering organised activities if that's your thing.
Of course not everyone wants to do this kind of organisation but they are paying quite a bit for it. I don't think the tour companies are ripping you off necessarily but unbundling the package means you can get the best value on every component.
@MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal
Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.
I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite
However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
I didn't ban him, so I don't know.
An explanation would be nice, tho it is your site (etc etc)
I just want reassurance people aren’t being banned for provocative opinions. Naturally, I accept all the other reasons you might ban him - using the N and C words, non verified email, suspicious IP address and so forth
@MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal
Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.
I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite
However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
Most of the time you will save a huge chunk of money (maybe £1000 in this case) and get something at least as good if you buy the components separately: low cost flight, hotel or flat on aggregator or hotel chain site, taxi transfers to airport, pay as you go for meals. Most tourist places have any number of companies offering organised activities if that's your thing.
Of course not everyone wants to do this kind of organisation but they are paying quite a bit for it. I don't think the tour companies are ripping you off necessarily but unbundling the package means you can get the best value on every component.
I'm not heading to Turkey or anywhere abroad this year with nursery fees rinsing me every month, but these factors wouldn't be different in 2014 compared to 2023. Maybe I just got a good offer that year.
@MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal
Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.
I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite
However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
I didn't ban him, so I don't know.
An explanation would be nice, tho it is your site (etc etc)
I just want reassurance people aren’t being banned for provocative opinions. Naturally, I accept all the other reasons you might ban him - using the N and C words, non verified email, suspicious IP address and so forth
Comments
https://news.sky.com/story/irish-ministers-under-pressure-to-clarify-secret-deal-for-raf-to-defend-irelands-airspace-in-an-emergency-12879084
It's been a fairly open secret for decades.
Probably top 10
Top 10 most interesting countries (excluding the UK as I’m British but the UK would definitely be in the list). In descending order
Italy
Japan
China
France
Turkey
Russia
India
USA
Colombia
Mexico or Germany
Most interesting small countries:
Israel
Armenia
Georgia
Lebanon
Sri Lanka
There. That’s my contribution to the thread on turnout. I’m now going to have a shower. Gracias
https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1770126148892291324
It seems that even a well funded AI startup can't afford the next generation of processes and have a truck load of the current generation processes which they aren't using 100%...
And yes I know the people actually interested in this are probably a total of about 4 people on here..
Nor is requiring voter IDs necessarily vote suppression -- if governments make it easy to acquire such IDs, which can be generally useful. In my home state of Washington, which does make it easy, such IDs allow me to open a bank account, and purchase alcohol.
(In the US, when gerrymanders were almost always committed by Democrats, many leftists ignored them, found them amusing, or even admired their ingenuity.)
Previously they've just quietly shunted workers elsewhere and left the call centre on minimal staffing - so I suspect that's what they will do this year. So it just hides the problem while keeping services dire..
The classic, years back, under Major (I think) was an admin in the NHS. Who sent an email, boasting of her genius - when confronted with a freeze on management spending in her dept. she sent warning notices of incoming staff cuts to all the oncology nurses working at Great Ormand Street hospital. To get *that* in the papers and cause the freeze to be cancelled.
The email was leaked.
Ireland needs to move on, theres no excuse for it.
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Poland
- Germany
- France
- Ireland
etc.
I have a letter asking me to call them to confirm a minor point. Tried multiple times, wait time 'at least 50 minutes'. No way I am doing this.
So I went online via government gateway to send them a message that way. But it says I can only do this if their letter says I can. It doesn't.
So they are (were) trying to close the phone option without first allowing communication electronically.
My colleague is looking at holidays, looking back through emails I checked and 10 nights in Turkey back in September 2014 was £1119.84 for me and my better half.
Adjusting for the specific time series
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7fn/mm23
it should be round about ~£1661.
My colleague has looked and informs me something broadly equivalent is over 3k.
Is there a suite of package holidays that has got much cheaper ? Because that's way above the relevant CPI time series.
I raise you the Bengal famine.
I’ve been reading a LOT of conquistador history this last month in Colombia. My god the cruelty and the death tolls. Some populations were reduced by 95% in a few generations - or quicker than that if they were rebellious
The British - despite the size of their empire - were benign pussycsts in comparison
The Iberians maybe even beat the Mongols. Ie even if you immediately and peacefully surrendered, the Spanish still killed you all with slavery or by sending you down silver mines
Unfortunately that means we don’t get a free pass to hate anyone. Not even the Normans. Not even the upper class.
My DNA profile however suggests substantial French/German/Swiss content but that may not help with the whole justifiable grievance thing.
In their panic the Labour Government and BMW threw money at the Phoenix Four whose behaviour was dishonest and contemptible. By the time the Labour Government told Towers enough was enough and the Longbrdge site had long been dead in the water. I am not sure why you brought the party politics element into the ultimate failure. The Labour Government should have pulled the plug back in 2000, and for that you have a point.
James Lee Burke has - in my opinion - a decent claim to be one of the greatest living American writers, if not the greatest. You'll find him classifed under Crime, but he only writes fiction about crime in the sense that the Old Testament of the King James Bible is about crime, or the Mayor of Casterbridge is about crime. Burke writes about salvation and damnation, about the small guilts felt by evil people for their acts, and the great guilts felt by good people for not preventing acts of evil. Burke writes about people who get caught up by the gales of corruption and violence, and try to stand their ground.
His writing is filled with deep love for his native Louisiana, particularly the bayous of the coast, and his anger at the destruction of its environment and culture during his lifetime. If you have visited the area, you will recognise it and its people completely from his writing; if you haven't, there can be no greater way to immerse yourself in the atmosphere and soul than to read these books.
James Lee Burke has written 42 novels, of which I have read 30. The first was published in 1965, when he was 29. The 42nd will be published this June. He is 87 years old. Every time one of his books comes out, I worry that it will be the last, and every time a book is announced I feel relief that it won't be, not just yet.
Wayfaring Stranger is not the greatest of his books, but as the start of a sequence about the Holland family, it's not a bad place to start, in post-war Texas as Weldon Holland comes out of the Army to start an oil pipeline construction company, and comes face to face with everything from gangsters to racism to casual environmental vandalism to Hollywood venality. His writing is as lyrical as ever, but perhaps there is a little loss of focus with the camera pulled back so far, and a little too much deus ex machina at the end. But I would still rther read James Lee Burke than almost anyone.
https://www.loveholidays.com/holidays/?destinationIds=1036&nights=10&rooms=2&date=2024-09-14&flexibility=0#hotelUrl=/holidays/turkey/dalaman/marmaris/grand-ideal-premium.html
Five star, 4/5 score on Tripadvisor.
https://time.com/6957873/varadkar-biden-speech-beau-gaza-israel-st-patricks-day/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls
Why would 'Democrats disillusioned with Biden's failure to do enough to oppose Israel in Gaza' vote for RFK Jr?
He seems to be more strongly pro-Israel than Biden:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INcHXmuNIN8
The guy is old. More doddery than Biden, in some ways nuttier than Trump, with zero chance of winning. Maybe there are some votes in being more anti-vaccine than Trump.
Most votes for a 3rd party candidate since Perot I think was Gary Johnson 2016 with 3.28%. Yes maybe RFK could beat that, but I don't think he will. In 2016 3rd party/ind candidates got 5.74%. In 2020 only 1.84%. I'd guess it's going to be closer to 2020 than 2016 in terms of votes for other candidates.
https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/december-2020/churchill-and-the-genocide-myth/
https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1770409551914778983
You can get the odd lovely bargain as hotels/airlines offload space, but generally they are bad news
I'm not suggesting for a moment that all will agree with her analysis or her remedies, but I'd gently suggest that those from across the political spectrum would find it thought-provoking. Indeed, as a leftie I have some disagreements with it. I know it's been linked to earlier in the thread (thanks, whoever it was), but I'll link again to encourage folk to have a read if they haven't looked at it. It's really worth a read, rather than just relying on press reports, I think.
https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/rachel-reeves-mais-lecture/
It graphed, over time, the population of modern-day countries.
The only population falls comparable to the Black Death, or a visit from Genghis Khan or Timberlane, were Ireland in the 1840s and Poland 1939-1946.
The French did worse in French Indochina (Vietnam; Laos; Cambodia) around the war. Neither were excusable.
So for their polling not to improve upon 2020 leaves them in a bad way.
Apprentice fans will know last week's task was set in Bulgaria, doubtless subsidised by that county's tourist board. (Vineyards and boats down the Danube, since you ask.)
Some of the native societies colonised by the Spanish declined by 90-95% - they were in essence wiped out
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4994967_The_Depopulation_of_Hispanic_America_after_the_Conquest
With all the workers dead - due to serfdom, disease, murder, famine - the Spanish and Portuguese had to import more. Hence, slavery. Worse than anything in your list
So about time for us to "welcome" his colleague "Dewey" as next PB pop-up pimping for Putin?
Though IMHO either "Henry Wallace" or "Strom Thurmond" would be WAY more appropriate!
You have to go back to 1992 and 1996 and Perot for the last time a 3rd party candidate was polling anywhere near as high as RFK Jnr is. Given the net negative approval ratings of both Biden and Trump, especially amongst Independents, many Independent voters in particular could go for RFK Jnr
Why? I do hope the mods didn’t just cancel him for saying unpopular things. Of course, if he could not verify an email etc etc then fair enough
Population crash was of a similar magnitude in North America in the early colonial period (though more poorly documented).
(Speaking of whom, For All Mankind really nails Nixon in the alt history. It's one of its minor delights.)
"Fine Gael are effectively the Tories sister party in Ireland so probably [rejoicing at Mr V's departure will be] not from Sunak, also a centre right PM of Indian heritage"
If you are about to be colonised or conquered then in absolute numbers a visit from the Spaniards (or the Lusitanians) is your worst possible outcome
Being aborigine in British Australia wasn’t great, some say the total aboriginal population declined ~80%, although that was over two centuries and the British never set out to enslave or slaughter the locals as a matter of policy (unlike the Iberians) - it was mainly disease, booze, despair, which killed the aborigine populations
https://www.kennedy24.com/policies
Sorry to have to correct you again, but have a look at this poll from July 2016 page 3
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/17/rel8a.-.2016.pdf
Clinton 42%
Trump 37%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy
However on various islands, especially, the Spanish basically destroyed whole populations with actual murder and brutal forced labour. Also in the mines of Bolivia
It’s one reason I am now obsessed with the Kogi people in this bit of Colombia. WHAT a survival. They only survived because they kept going higher and higher up these coastal mountains. Intriguingly, their first retreat from the coast occurred as “Colombia” was invaded by brutal colonisers (possibly cannibalistic) from the Caribbean - long before the Europeans showed up
The Great Famine saw a population fall of around 20-25% - but perhaps half of that was from emigration.
The Korean and Vietnam wars a century later (though numbers are every bit as uncertain as in Ireland) quite possibly saw similar death rates in a similar same space of time.
(feels briefly smug)
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-fall-of-the-aztecs-the-adventure-begins-part-1/id1537788786?i=1000633588776
They only have to keep the budget within five years of adjustment of balance, which is more than a little leeway.
I guess the only striking thing about it is that Liz Truss wasn't able or willing to even meet that weak constraint.
So the performance was much more energetic. However, he tends to get rather shrill when he is excited and that isn't very good. The best comparison is perhaps with Kinnock. Also Mr Sunak needs much better ammunition if he is to trouble, let alone wound, Starmer.
At the moment Sir Keir could echo the Iron Duke every week - 'They came on in the same old way and we sent them back in the same old way.' But as the weeks tick off his people are no doubt amused to watch time wasted by the Cons on the same old impotent lines
Asking for a friend
He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite
However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election
Of course not everyone wants to do this kind of organisation but they are paying quite a bit for it. I don't think the tour companies are ripping you off necessarily but unbundling the package means you can get the best value on every component.
I just want reassurance people aren’t being banned for provocative opinions. Naturally, I accept all the other reasons you might ban him - using the N and C words, non verified email, suspicious IP address and so forth
To be fair, this pass would extend to most of the peoples of the commonwealth.