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The paradox that the Tory party cannot currently solve – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited April 28 in General
imageThe paradox that the Tory party cannot currently solve – politicalbetting.com

Picture: This man could hurt the Tories badly

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Sunday Times: Corbyn will stand as Independent in Islington North.

    "Jeremy Corbyn has in effect confirmed that he will stand as an independent candidate at the general election, declaring he would “continue” to serve his constituents as he has done since 1983......

    However, he decided to end the speculation after The Sunday Times was leaked emails in which a friend asked a printing company about the cost of producing election leaflets for him.

    He issued a statement saying: “Jeremy is immensely proud to be the MP for Islington North and has spent the past 40 years fighting alongside his community for a better world. He is focused on that work, campaigning on the issues facing his constituents and doing his utmost to help those in need. That is what he will continue to do.”
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    edited March 17
    This could be the devastating proof that Hamas is faking its death figures
    But too many won’t believe anything other than that Israel is deliberately targeting women and children

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/16/could-be-devastating-proof-hamas-faking-death-figures/ (£££)

    Although Hamas's figures are almost certainly wrong, television pictures of devastation wreaked in Gaza render them moot.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    University warns its students over bad heroin after rise in overdoses
    Russell Group college criticised for not warning instead of dangers of taking drugs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/16/university-warns-its-students-over-bad-heroin/ (£££)

    Exeter, Falmouth.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    "I suspect there is no Tory who can currently straddle the Red/Blue Wall divide either before the election or after it. What appeals to one puts off the other wall, Sunak nor Mordaunt nor King Solomon have the wisdom to solve this paradox.

    I cannot see how the Tories can unite the Red Wall and the Blue Wall over the next few years, getting Brexit done and stopping Jeremy Corbyn are no longer issues that concern voters and Sir Keir Starmer isn’t a bogeyman to frighten people into voting Tory unlike Corbyn. The only unity is that both walls want to ditch the Tories.”

    Morning everyone. This is exactly it. @TSE has perfectly summarised the problem, the fissures of which have lain there for the past 4 decades. It’s just that Brexit brought made it unbridgable.

    I’m not sure that epistemologically or even ontologically there’s any way for those two halves to unite. It’s not impossible that after their defeat, the Party could split entirely.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 17
    I watched the PM for PM tittle-tattle yesterday with some detached bemusement.

    Sometimes I think she’s okay. At other times she’s awful. She didn’t shine in the tv debates, looked out of her depth, has a poor grasp of detail and facts, and is (apparently) lazy. At any rate, there were enough question marks about her previously to make many insiders doubt whether she has what it takes. Then she held onto a pole or something and the tory (men) decided she was pretty.

    Sorry to be facetious but Penny Mordaunt isn’t going to save the Conservatives from a historic electoral defeat. And it’s a sign of their sheer desperation, and the realisation that Sunak is a complete dud, that they’re even discussing it so openly.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Heathener said:

    I watched the PM for PM tittle-tattle yesterday with some detached bemusement.

    Sometimes I think she’s okay. At other times she’s awful. She didn’t shine in the tv debates, looked out of her depth, has a poor grasp of detail and facts, and is (apparently) lazy. At any rate, there were enough question marks about her previously to make many insiders doubt whether she has what it takes. Then she held onto a pole or something and the tory (men) decided she was pretty.

    Sorry to be facetious but Penny Mordaunt isn’t going to save the Conservatives from a historic electoral defeat. And it’s a sign of their sheer desperation, and the realisation that Sunak is a complete dud, that they’re even discussing it so openly.

    It has been suggested that right-wing MPs are using Penny Mordaunt as a stalking horse to force a leadership election in which they would then support their own candidate against her.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/16/penny-mordaunt-stalking-horse-right-wing-tory-rival/ (£££)
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Local elections: 'I got my first death threat before I was elected'

    They are responsible for planning, potholes and policing. But our local politicians are facing unprecedented levels of abuse and harassment. The government has committed £31m to improving safety and security for all elected representatives. So, with local elections coming, what is it like on the front line of local democracy?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68562310
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    Sorry, didn't you read the article? He is one og the horns of the lemma
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    Heathener said:

    I watched the PM for PM tittle-tattle yesterday with some detached bemusement.

    Sometimes I think she’s okay. At other times she’s awful. She didn’t shine in the tv debates, looked out of her depth, has a poor grasp of detail and facts, and is (apparently) lazy. At any rate, there were enough question marks about her previously to make many insiders doubt whether she has what it takes. Then she held onto a pole or something and the tory (men) decided she was pretty.

    Sorry to be facetious but Penny Mordaunt isn’t going to save the Conservatives from a historic electoral defeat. And it’s a sign of their sheer desperation, and the realisation that Sunak is a complete dud, that they’re even discussing it so openly.

    It has been suggested that right-wing MPs are using Penny Mordaunt as a stalking horse to force a leadership election in which they would then support their own candidate against her.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/16/penny-mordaunt-stalking-horse-right-wing-tory-rival/ (£££)
    "Are you a horse?"

    Miss that clip. Miss The Thick Of It.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,029
    Is that a squirrel with a single nut on the card at the back?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,636
    "I cannot see how the Tories can unite the Red Wall and the Blue Wall over the next few years ..."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCLwu2vEp6Q
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Heathener said:

    I watched the PM for PM tittle-tattle yesterday with some detached bemusement.

    Sometimes I think she’s okay. At other times she’s awful. She didn’t shine in the tv debates, looked out of her depth, has a poor grasp of detail and facts, and is (apparently) lazy. At any rate, there were enough question marks about her previously to make many insiders doubt whether she has what it takes. Then she held onto a pole or something and the tory (men) decided she was pretty.

    Sorry to be facetious but Penny Mordaunt isn’t going to save the Conservatives from a historic electoral defeat. And it’s a sign of their sheer desperation, and the realisation that Sunak is a complete dud, that they’re even discussing it so openly.

    It has been suggested that right-wing MPs are using Penny Mordaunt as a stalking horse to force a leadership election in which they would then support their own candidate against her.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/16/penny-mordaunt-stalking-horse-right-wing-tory-rival/ (£££)
    "Are you a horse?"

    Miss that clip. Miss The Thick Of It.
    I think this is more, 'would that it had been writ down that I am an ass!'

    AKA Much Ado About Nothing.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 17

    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
    Yeah I get all of that but it’s not what @TSE’s thread is about.

    It’s not about who could win the leadership. It's about the paradox of how to win both the red wall and the blue wall.

    Farage would be an electoral disaster for the tories because they would face a wipeout in the blue wall. There’s no evidence at all that with him in charge they would win 200 seats. He’s even more toxic than Jeremy Corbyn was the other way, which is saying something.

    It’s about that paradox: how do you win two mutually incompatible demographics?
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451

    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
    *"tory members want him back"

    Sure, but that party cannot win elections, because it would cater to a narrow segment on the right. In becoming a niche popcon party it would leave a gaping hole in the middle that would be occupied be Labour for many many terms. I would be fine with this by the way, as the country has suffered horriby under the conservatives attempts to negotiate it own internal contradictions. The conservative party must split before we can move on as a nation. By the way, the prospective popcon party would be on a demographic trajectory towards oblivion, due to its largely boomer age profile. I have said from the beginning that reform is symptomatic of populism's failure to consolidate the right, I.e. follow through on ukips Trojan horse approach to the conservatives.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    I thought we all agreed we'd never see that photo again?

    People on here have been rude about the Lord Cameron.

    This is their punishment.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    I think it's a bit strange that people should be so quick to say the red and blue walls cannot ever be reconciled, when this was achieved just over four years ago at GE 2019. If the polls are anywhere like accurate, then Labour are poised to reconcile three major groups in the electorate - metropolitan liberals, blue labour and conservative swing voters.

    These groups are not reconciled due to the oratorical brilliance of Keir-Ends-In-R Starmer, but due to Starmer's success in blandifying the Labour party so as not to put any of the groups off, and the categorical imperative of finding a means for these groups to punish the Tories.

    Achieving something in reverse for the Tories requires only a bit of experience of Labour in government, and a Tory leader who isn't trying to actively alienate one part of the voter coalition.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
    Apart from his politics, Farage is famously disorganised and fond of a liquid lunch.

    He simply isn't leadership material, not that ever seems to stand in the way of prospective Tory leaders.

    I am sceptical that REFUK would poll much better with Farage as leader too.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Heathener said:

    "I suspect there is no Tory who can currently straddle the Red/Blue Wall divide either before the election or after it. What appeals to one puts off the other wall, Sunak nor Mordaunt nor King Solomon have the wisdom to solve this paradox.

    I cannot see how the Tories can unite the Red Wall and the Blue Wall over the next few years, getting Brexit done and stopping Jeremy Corbyn are no longer issues that concern voters and Sir Keir Starmer isn’t a bogeyman to frighten people into voting Tory unlike Corbyn. The only unity is that both walls want to ditch the Tories.”

    Morning everyone. This is exactly it. @TSE has perfectly summarised the problem, the fissures of which have lain there for the past 4 decades. It’s just that Brexit brought made it unbridgable.

    I’m not sure that epistemologically or even ontologically there’s any way for those two halves to unite. It’s not impossible that after their defeat, the Party could split entirely.

    Strategically, forcing a referendum over an issue that has split the Conservative Party for decades wasnt such a bright move.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,636
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
    Yeah I get all of that but it’s not what @TSE’s thread is about.

    It’s not about who could win the leadership. It's about the paradox of how to win both the red wall and the blue wall.

    Farage would be an electoral disaster for the tories because they would face a wipeout in the blue wall. There’s no evidence at all that with him in charge they would win 200 seats. He’s even more toxic than Jeremy Corbyn was the other way, which is saying something.

    It’s about that paradox: how do you win two mutually incompatible demographics?
    I don't really see any paradox. Surely the Tories have simply made themselves so unpopular - and even hated - that with their present levels of support they can't come close to winning an election, whatever strategy they adopt. Having a right-wing alternative doesn't help, but on the polls they would still lose even if they could magically absorb all Refuk's support. It's their sheer unpopularity that's the problem.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 17

    I think it's a bit strange that people should be so quick to say the red and blue walls cannot ever be reconciled, when this was achieved just over four years ago at GE 2019. If the polls are anywhere like accurate, then Labour are poised to reconcile three major groups in the electorate - metropolitan liberals, blue labour and conservative swing voters.

    These groups are not reconciled due to the oratorical brilliance of Keir-Ends-In-R Starmer, but due to Starmer's success in blandifying the Labour party so as not to put any of the groups off, and the categorical imperative of finding a means for these groups to punish the Tories.

    Achieving something in reverse for the Tories requires only a bit of experience of Labour in government, and a Tory leader who isn't trying to actively alienate one part of the voter coalition.

    I like your counter to this, with the 2019 evidence to back up your point.

    However … those cracks were in the Party for a long time and we kid ourselves to think otherwise. That divide is really what brought down John Major and it didn’t do Margaret Thatcher much good in the end either. It all boiled to the surface when @TSE ’s beloved Davey boy idiotically called the Brexit referendum, thinking in his Old Etonian arrogance that he would pull off the same stunt as indyref.

    (If you want to see what a shit Cameron really is then DO read the finale to Suzanne Heywood’s What Does Jeremy Think?)

    I still maintain that 2019 was unique. Even I, a remainer, was utterly exasperated at the antics of that Remainer Parliament and at just the right moment along came Boris, someone uniquely gifted at deception to hoodwink the British people. With mellifluous honey-coated lies he pulled in blue and red wall voters. My Surrey tory friend, totally disillusioned now with the Party, STILL ADORES Boris and would vote for him like a shot.

    Assuming Boris doesn’t make a Lazarite comeback, there’s no one else of his ilk. Once in a century.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Scott_xP said:

    I think it's a bit strange that people should be so quick to say the red and blue walls cannot ever be reconciled, when this was achieved just over four years ago at GE 2019.

    I don't think it's true to say they were reconciled.

    They both voted for the same shyster, but for different reasons.

    And they both got shafted.
    In a rather more succinct and penetrative way, you said the same as I :)
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 17
    Chris said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
    Yeah I get all of that but it’s not what @TSE’s thread is about.

    It’s not about who could win the leadership. It's about the paradox of how to win both the red wall and the blue wall.

    Farage would be an electoral disaster for the tories because they would face a wipeout in the blue wall. There’s no evidence at all that with him in charge they would win 200 seats. He’s even more toxic than Jeremy Corbyn was the other way, which is saying something.

    It’s about that paradox: how do you win two mutually incompatible demographics?
    I don't really see any paradox. Surely the Tories have simply made themselves so unpopular - and even hated
    The two halves of this are both true. Yes, they’ve made themselves unpopular, even hated.

    But there is also a stark, and at the moment unreconcilable, paradox and it’s a real problem for the Party. You can’t appeal to red wall and blue wall at the same time.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Heathener said:

    Chris said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
    Yeah I get all of that but it’s not what @TSE’s thread is about.

    It’s not about who could win the leadership. It's about the paradox of how to win both the red wall and the blue wall.

    Farage would be an electoral disaster for the tories because they would face a wipeout in the blue wall. There’s no evidence at all that with him in charge they would win 200 seats. He’s even more toxic than Jeremy Corbyn was the other way, which is saying something.

    It’s about that paradox: how do you win two mutually incompatible demographics?
    I don't really see any paradox. Surely the Tories have simply made themselves so unpopular - and even hated
    The two halves of this are both true. Yes, they’ve made themselves unpopular, even hated.

    But there is also a stark, and at the most unreconcilable, paradox and it’s a real problem for the Party. You can’t appeal to red wall and blue wall at the same time.
    Irreconcilable you fecking pleb.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Heathener said:

    You can’t appeal to red wall and blue wall at the same time.

    Well, you can. Blair did it. Starmer is about to do it.

    Richi can't do it. Nigel Fucking Farage can't do it.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,476
    edited March 17
    There is an article on the BBC about abuse of politicians and death threats and the like. Whilst abhoring that kind of behaviour, the politicians get this sort of shit because they are such fffing liars and noone trusts or believes them. People believe that Farage calls it as he sees it irrespective of how damaging what he believes is. A sobering thought if ever there was one.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68562310
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Why are we talking about “red wall” and “blue wall”? There are plenty of Reform UK voters in blue wall seats, and plenty in red wall seats who want something more like a One Nation conservatism.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    edited March 17
    Heathener said:

    I think it's a bit strange that people should be so quick to say the red and blue walls cannot ever be reconciled, when this was achieved just over four years ago at GE 2019. If the polls are anywhere like accurate, then Labour are poised to reconcile three major groups in the electorate - metropolitan liberals, blue labour and conservative swing voters.

    These groups are not reconciled due to the oratorical brilliance of Keir-Ends-In-R Starmer, but due to Starmer's success in blandifying the Labour party so as not to put any of the groups off, and the categorical imperative of finding a means for these groups to punish the Tories.

    Achieving something in reverse for the Tories requires only a bit of experience of Labour in government, and a Tory leader who isn't trying to actively alienate one part of the voter coalition.

    I like your counter to this, with the 2019 evidence to back up your point.

    However … those cracks were in the Party for a long time and we kid ourselves to think otherwise. That divide is really what brought down John Major and it didn’t do Margaret Thatcher much good in the end either. It all boiled to the surface when @TSE ’s beloved Davey boy idiotically called the Brexit referendum, thinking in his Old Etonian arrogance that he would pull off the same stunt as indyref.

    (If you want to see what a shit Cameron really is then DO read the finale to Suzanne Heywood’s What Does Jeremy Think?)

    I still maintain that 2019 was unique. Even I, a remainer, was utterly exasperated at the antics of that Remainer Parliament and at just the right moment along came Boris, someone uniquely gifted at deception to hoodwink the British people. With mellifluous honey-coated lies he pulled in blue and red wall voters. My Surrey tory friend, totally disillusioned now with the Party, STILL ADORES Boris and would vote for him like a shot.

    Assuming Boris doesn’t make a Lazarite comeback, there’s no one else of his ilk. Once in a century.
    Yes, it's true to say that the splits had been in the Tory party for a long time - but then that is true of any governing party in Britain. There is no single cohesive group of voters that is large enough to win a majority on its own. So it's normal for a governing party to be sustained by a coalition of voters divided amongst itself, and those divisions will obviously come to the fore when the party is generally unpopular.

    I don't see anything unusual with what is happening to the Tories now, and so I don't think it requires anything extraordinary to fix the situation.

    Indeed, what seems to be a more volatile electorate means that there is potential for the fractured Tory coalition to come back together (very temporarily) more quickly than currently appears possible. The situation facing an incoming Labour government is much more difficult than that encountered in 1997.

    Although the Tories have been in government for nearly 14 years now, I think that is misleading. They have had several reinventions in that time, and so the last 14 years have been a lot more like the 1970s, than the long periods of Thatcherite/Blairite rule in the 80s/90s/00s.

    Whatever Starmerism turns out to be I would not bet on it lasting that long. It's quite likely to be overturned by something very different, either from within the Labour party, or without, by the end of the decade.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    edited March 17
    Scott_xP said:

    Heathener said:

    You can’t appeal to red wall and blue wall at the same time.

    Well, you can. Blair did it. Starmer is about to do it.

    Richi can't do it. Nigel Fucking Farage can't do it.
    Did Blair appeal to red and blue walls? There was still a swathe of reasonably safe Conservative seats in 1997.

    I suspect that other big wins have been based on core + swing voters, which is much more stable.

    The trouble with the Conservative 2019 coalition is that it's based on two fundamentally incompatible types of voter. Without Corbyn as a bogeyman, all that's left is responding to the same bribes.

    Like a lot of moves in the Johnson-Cummings playbook, there was a good reason why nobody had done it that way before. The tactics were strictly one shot, with horrid side effects.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @guardian

    Britain doesn’t need ‘reform’. It just needs to rejoin the EU | William Keegan

    https://t.co/CHtLQ2iINU
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    Heathener said:

    Chris said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
    Yeah I get all of that but it’s not what @TSE’s thread is about.

    It’s not about who could win the leadership. It's about the paradox of how to win both the red wall and the blue wall.

    Farage would be an electoral disaster for the tories because they would face a wipeout in the blue wall. There’s no evidence at all that with him in charge they would win 200 seats. He’s even more toxic than Jeremy Corbyn was the other way, which is saying something.

    It’s about that paradox: how do you win two mutually incompatible demographics?
    I don't really see any paradox. Surely the Tories have simply made themselves so unpopular - and even hated
    The two halves of this are both true. Yes, they’ve made themselves unpopular, even hated.

    But there is also a stark, and at the most unreconcilable, paradox and it’s a real problem for the Party. You can’t appeal to red wall and blue wall at the same time.
    Irreconcilable you fecking pleb.
    Ha! My bad.

    But as a more gracious type I refrain from pointing out your frequent, erm, typos.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathener said:

    You can’t appeal to red wall and blue wall at the same time.

    Well, you can. Blair did it. Starmer is about to do it.

    Richi can't do it. Nigel Fucking Farage can't do it.
    Did Blair appeal to red and blue walls? There was still a swathe of reasonably safe Conservative seats in 1997.

    I suspect that other big wins have been based on core + swing voters, which is much more stable.

    The trouble with the Conservative 2019 coalition is that it's based on two fundamentally incompatible types of voter. Without Corbyn as a bogeyman, all that's left is responding to the same bribes.

    Like a lot of moves in the Johnson-Cummings playbook, there was a good reason why nobody had done it that way before. The tactics were strictly one shot, with horrid side effects.
    The thing is, surely the same rules don’t apply to a Labour leader? It’s the fissure within the Conservative Party that produces this problem. Either side is innately suspicious of the other.

    Totally agree with your Johnson-Cummings comments.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    Heathener said:

    I think it's a bit strange that people should be so quick to say the red and blue walls cannot ever be reconciled, when this was achieved just over four years ago at GE 2019. If the polls are anywhere like accurate, then Labour are poised to reconcile three major groups in the electorate - metropolitan liberals, blue labour and conservative swing voters.

    These groups are not reconciled due to the oratorical brilliance of Keir-Ends-In-R Starmer, but due to Starmer's success in blandifying the Labour party so as not to put any of the groups off, and the categorical imperative of finding a means for these groups to punish the Tories.

    Achieving something in reverse for the Tories requires only a bit of experience of Labour in government, and a Tory leader who isn't trying to actively alienate one part of the voter coalition.

    I like your counter to this, with the 2019 evidence to back up your point.

    However … those cracks were in the Party for a long time and we kid ourselves to think otherwise. That divide is really what brought down John Major and it didn’t do Margaret Thatcher much good in the end either. It all boiled to the surface when @TSE ’s beloved Davey boy idiotically called the Brexit referendum, thinking in his Old Etonian arrogance that he would pull off the same stunt as indyref.

    (If you want to see what a shit Cameron really is then DO read the finale to Suzanne Heywood’s What Does Jeremy Think?)

    I still maintain that 2019 was unique. Even I, a remainer, was utterly exasperated at the antics of that Remainer Parliament and at just the right moment along came Boris, someone uniquely gifted at deception to hoodwink the British people. With mellifluous honey-coated lies he pulled in blue and red wall voters. My Surrey tory friend, totally disillusioned now with the Party, STILL ADORES Boris and would vote for him like a shot.

    Assuming Boris doesn’t make a Lazarite comeback, there’s no one else of his ilk. Once in a century.
    Yes, it's true to say that the splits had been in the Tory party for a long time - but then that is true of any governing party in Britain. There is no single cohesive group of voters that is large enough to win a majority on its own. So it's normal for a governing party to be sustained by a coalition of voters divided amongst itself, and those divisions will obviously come to the fore when the party is generally unpopular.

    I don't see anything unusual with what is happening to the Tories now, and so I don't think it requires anything extraordinary to fix the situation.

    Indeed, what seems to be a more volatile electorate means that there is potential for the fractured Tory coalition to come back together (very temporarily) more quickly than currently appears possible. The situation facing an incoming Labour government is much more difficult than that encountered in 1997.

    Although the Tories have been in government for nearly 14 years now, I think that is misleading. They have had several reinventions in that time, and so the last 14 years have been a lot more like the 1970s, than the long periods of Thatcherite/Blairite rule in the 80s/90s/00s.

    Whatever Starmerism turns out to be I would not bet on it lasting that long. It's quite likely to be overturned by something very different, either from within the Labour party, or without, by the end of the decade.
    A good response but your last paragraph is a fig leaf I’ve noticed some Conservatives clinging onto i.e. the assumption that Starmer is going to fail.

    Whilst I don’t underestimate the magnitude of problems facing this country, and I’m no longer convinced Labour will fix them, I suspect many people will look back on the last 5 years as a horror show they never want to go near again in their lifetime.

    I’m beginning to think Labour will be in power for 20 years.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    I'm quite attracted to the 3D politics analysis from Electoral Calculus. One of the main conclusions is that you can divide British voters into broadly seven different groups.

    The differences between these groups are a lot more complex than having the voters sit on a left-right axis, where a party can secure its core vote and reach out to centrists, until it encompasses a winning plurality. And if the groups are roughly equal in size, then it requires a combination of three groups to win what might be a reliable election-winning coalition, although even that might not quite be enough.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 17

    Heathener said:

    Chris said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The answer to the paradox is, sadly, Nigel Farage.

    That doesn’t make sense? He’s repulsive to many (most) blue wall voters. My Surrey tory friend would never vote Conservative if he’s in charge.
    He was the most popular politician at the Tory party conference. 70% of Tory members want him back. GB News is where the Tories plan to live. He would walk a leadership contest and is a good campaigner who can claim to have not been involved in the recent failures and scandals of the Tory party.

    Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
    Yeah I get all of that but it’s not what @TSE’s thread is about.

    It’s not about who could win the leadership. It's about the paradox of how to win both the red wall and the blue wall.

    Farage would be an electoral disaster for the tories because they would face a wipeout in the blue wall. There’s no evidence at all that with him in charge they would win 200 seats. He’s even more toxic than Jeremy Corbyn was the other way, which is saying something.

    It’s about that paradox: how do you win two mutually incompatible demographics?
    I don't really see any paradox. Surely the Tories have simply made themselves so unpopular - and even hated
    The two halves of this are both true. Yes, they’ve made themselves unpopular, even hated.

    But there is also a stark, and at the most unreconcilable, paradox and it’s a real problem for the Party. You can’t appeal to red wall and blue wall at the same time.
    Irreconcilable you fecking pleb.
    By the way @TSE , irreconcilable and unreconcilable are actually interchangeable synonyms and both acceptable English.

    I think you’re just cross because I called out Davey boy for the person he really is. I have contacts high up in the civil service who thought he was an unpleasant character. Read Suzanne Heywood’s What Does Jeremy Think? You may feel differently about your beloved OE afterwards.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Good morning all.

    LTNs back in the news today. From the BBC:

    Transport Secretary Mark Harper said it showed the government was "on the side of drivers".

    And not on the side of communities whose l8ves are blighted when their streets are turned into rat runs.

    But if Mr Stringbackedgloves can save minute in his Audil that's what matters.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Good morning all.

    LTNs back in the news today. From the BBC:

    Transport Secretary Mark Harper said it showed the government was "on the side of drivers".

    And not on the side of communities whose l8ves are blighted when their streets are turned into rat runs.

    But if Mr Stringbackedgloves can save minute in his Audil that's what matters.

    ...
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 17
    I’m about to have morning coffee with my Surrey lifelong (until now) tory voting friend.

    I’ll ask her what she thinks of Cameron. Bet with 2 minutes she’s talking about Boris instead ...
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    A fascinating concept. Are you saying that all red wall Tories - eg Teesside’s Matt Vickers, Jacob Young, Simon Clarke, Ben Houchen et al - all have to defect to ReFUK?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Good morning

    It is true this conservative party cannot square the circle between the red and blue walls but in my opinion the desire for change is so great now that will hand Starmer a large majority this Autumn

    What he does with it is a very different question, as is what conservative party emerges post the election
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    p.s. maybe I should explain

    Good morning

    It is true this conservative party cannot square the circle between the red and blue walls but in my opinion the desire for change is so great now that will hand Starmer a large majority this Autumn

    What he does with it is a very different question, as is what conservative party emerges post the election

    Good morning Big G. How are you at the moment, if I may ask?

    Do you think they will split after the election? Or is that the sort of discussion that always comes up for either main party after a heavy defeat and they will pull together in the end?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    On topic, a good thread from on Farage as leader, by Kieran Pedley.

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1769274394667352222?t=qGzqXc3t3jmFbiBjyCm5wA&s=19

    The short version is that it doesn't solve the Tories problem.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    On topic, surely the problem for the Tories is that they don’t stand for Tory policies. They’re anti-capitalist, high tax, destroying the social fabric, smashing local government, and have cut us off from international relevance.

    The comedy is that whilst doing all those things they seem insistent that *the opposite* is true. Truly the emperor’s new clothes.

    Farage is catnip to the mad and the desperate. Not helped by a succession of right-wing media outlets which have belittled facts and experts and truth and instead push distortions and slogans and ignorance. With Farage as the pied piper. The Tory problem is that as the anti-Tory party, they are mesmerised by his tune, even as he leads them further away from everything he stands for.

    Serious question. What is Conservative or Unionist about the Conservative and Unionist Party in 2024?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,542
    I think that there is a small majority available in this country for compassionate one nation Conservatism. It’s what Cameron almost won with in 2010 and did win with in 2015.

    The problem the present government has is that it has not been offering this. By worrying about the small if noisy groups to the right they have lost the much larger group in the centre who are going to vote for Starmer, as they voted for Blair.

    The idea that the solution to this problem is someone like Farage is a serious misdiagnosis of the problem. It is rather a trip into the wilderness.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Serious question. What is Conservative or Unionist about the Conservative and Unionist Party in 2024?

    Even less than the "Conservative and Unionist Party" in 2019...
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    Why are we talking about “red wall” and “blue wall”? There are plenty of Reform UK voters in blue wall seats, and plenty in red wall seats who want something more like a One Nation conservatism.

    Yes, it’s this sort of stereotypical thinking that’s getting them into a pickle in the first place. If they retain their blue wall seats it’ll be in no small part due to elderly right wing stop the boaters turning up to vote.

    The reason they’ve lost the red wall is because they’ve done bugger all for the North.

    I think they have discovered the way to square the circle though, at least they think they have, and it’s called BIG TAX CUTS
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    Scott_xP said:

    Good morning all.

    LTNs back in the news today. From the BBC:

    Transport Secretary Mark Harper said it showed the government was "on the side of drivers".

    And not on the side of communities whose l8ves are blighted when their streets are turned into rat runs.

    But if Mr Stringbackedgloves can save minute in his Audil that's what matters.

    ...
    The best-paid man in journalism phoning it in today.

    I mean, he does some genuinely good cartoons, but they certainly aren't all gold.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,476
    Starmerism will be the same sort of lies Blair told. People will believe for a while because they want to forget the Tories.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    A fascinating concept. Are you saying that all red wall Tories - eg Teesside’s Matt Vickers, Jacob Young, Simon Clarke, Ben Houchen et al - all have to defect to ReFUK?
    Why not most of them are headed to the political abbatoir, and the Tories appear incapable of managing a broad church party atm. It would be a bit like PR where different viewpoints get elected and then have to work out how to live together.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    edited March 17
    Heathener said:

    p.s. maybe I should explain

    Good morning

    It is true this conservative party cannot square the circle between the red and blue walls but in my opinion the desire for change is so great now that will hand Starmer a large majority this Autumn

    What he does with it is a very different question, as is what conservative party emerges post the election

    Good morning Big G. How are you at the moment, if I may ask?

    Do you think they will split after the election? Or is that the sort of discussion that always comes up for either main party after a heavy defeat and they will pull together in the end?
    Good morning @Heathener

    Thank you for asking and it will be six weeks on tuesday since my pacemaker operation and it does seem to be working but since my DVT in October my mobility has suffered but then I am now an octogenarian so just grateful to be under lifetime medical care and have a wonderful family

    As far as the conservatives post GE are concerned I do not expect Reform to win any seats, but certainly they will damage the conservative vote but if there is one thing i pray comes out at the next GE is the electorate facing down the right in the form of Farage and Reform, who are simply a divisive and unpleasant political part of our politics

    And maybe if this happens wise heads left in the conservative party will prevail and they return to the centre
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    Do REFUK poll particularly well in the "Red Wall"? The polling tables show support at much the same across England and Wales. Indeed I am pretty sceptical that much differs between "Red Wall" and "Blue Wall" seats that isn't explained by level of education.

    I had to laugh too at this photo of Tice and Anderson on a victory tour:

    https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1769077619129983215?t=4e-hWXqtGvECidovRoX8nA&s=19



  • Options

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    That sort of deal isn't going to win them Bolsover, but will get them annihilated in the Home Counties. A non-starter.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    Heathener said:

    p.s. maybe I should explain

    Good morning

    It is true this conservative party cannot square the circle between the red and blue walls but in my opinion the desire for change is so great now that will hand Starmer a large majority this Autumn

    What he does with it is a very different question, as is what conservative party emerges post the election

    Good morning Big G. How are you at the moment, if I may ask?

    Do you think they will split after the election? Or is that the sort of discussion that always comes up for either main party after a heavy defeat and they will pull together in the end?
    Good morning @Heathener

    Thank you for asking and it will be six weeks on tuesday since my pacemaker operation and it does seem to be working but since my DVT in October my mobility has suffered but then I am now an octogenarian so just grateful to be under lifetime medical care and have a wonderful family

    As far as the conservatives post GE are concerned I do not expect Reform to win any seats, but certainly they will damage the conservative vote but if there is one thing i pray comes out at the next GE is the electorate facing down the right in the form of Farage and Reform, who are simply a divisive and unpleasant political part of our politics

    And maybe if this happens wise heads left in the conservative party will prevail and they return to the centre
    Thank you for updating me Big G. I really hope you continue to recover from the operation and this is to wish you a good summer. It’s so good that you have wonderful family around and your medical care.

    x
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    Foxy said:

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    Do REFUK poll particularly well in the "Red Wall"? The polling tables show support at much the same across England and Wales. Indeed I am pretty sceptical that much differs between "Red Wall" and "Blue Wall" seats that isn't explained by level of education.

    I had to laugh too at this photo of Tice and Anderson on a victory tour:

    https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1769077619129983215?t=4e-hWXqtGvECidovRoX8nA&s=19



    No idea but there is a chance. The Tories have made themselves toast so its a chance versus certainty. And as part of a deal for tories not standing they could tell their voters down south to bote tory to give them the chance of a seat in government.

    It would make it a more interesting election.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,767

    Starmerism will be the same sort of lies Blair told. People will believe for a while because they want to forget the Tories.

    Tony Blair made real progress. A lot of people ended up loathing him because Iraq, but there's a good argument to say that he was the last half-decent Prime Minister we had.

    Starmer, by contrast, is going to be all about leaving things more or less as they are, and then blaming the mess created by the last lot for the fact that his continuity Toryism is making everything even worse.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Starmerism will be the same sort of lies Blair told. People will believe for a while because they want to forget the Tories.

    He's willing to fight for the right to party!

    https://twitter.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351?t=5A38AcC4XvqkqJ3LkDhbLw&s=19https://twitter.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351?t=5A38AcC4XvqkqJ3LkDhbLw&s=19
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    MuesliMuesli Posts: 172
    Too many people are getting worked up by the idea that the vapid but presentable Penny Mordaunt will straddle the Tories and give them a bounce. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    A fascinating concept. Are you saying that all red wall Tories - eg Teesside’s Matt Vickers, Jacob Young, Simon Clarke, Ben Houchen et al - all have to defect to ReFUK?
    No, he’s just admitting defeat.
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    Starmerism will be the same sort of lies Blair told. People will believe for a while because they want to forget the Tories.

    Is the new Tory line to scare people with the threat that Starmer will be a bit like a man who comfortably beat them in every election he fought as Labour leader?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Foxy said:

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    Do REFUK poll particularly well in the "Red Wall"? The polling tables show support at much the same across England and Wales. Indeed I am pretty sceptical that much differs between "Red Wall" and "Blue Wall" seats that isn't explained by level of education.

    I had to laugh too at this photo of Tice and Anderson on a victory tour:

    https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1769077619129983215?t=4e-hWXqtGvECidovRoX8nA&s=19



    No idea but there is a chance. The Tories have made themselves toast so its a chance versus certainty. And as part of a deal for tories not standing they could tell their voters down south to bote tory to give them the chance of a seat in government.

    It would make it a more interesting election.
    Some sort of electoral pact might happen, with Tory MPs unopposed, but voters don't always do as they are told. These people don't want to vote for Sunaks Tories for a reason, so they won't.

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    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Should the Tories wish to avoid a collapse on the scale of Welsh rugby they need PM as PM. She's the only Conservative with credit with the voters. PM is a formidable campaigner and as her consort I'd strike her in a Britannia mode with chariot, spear and union shield pose !!

    She'll likely keep the Tories above 200 seats which will provide a springboard for the 2028/9 GE as the Starmer government drown in a sea of debt.

    Departing Chancellor Hunt note to Reeves. "There's £2.40 down the back of the sofa. Be quick though, it's on HP and the bailiffs are coming on Saturday."
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Muesli said:

    Too many people are getting worked up by the idea that the vapid but presentable Penny Mordaunt will straddle the Tories and give them a bounce. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

    "vapid but presentable" beats "reliably bad" so she would save some votes that Richi can't
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Foxy said:

    I had to laugh too at this photo of Tice and Anderson on a victory tour:

    https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1769077619129983215?t=4e-hWXqtGvECidovRoX8nA&s=19

    @archer_rs

    The fact that Lee Anderson is being followed around by a man shouting "wanker" at him through a megaphone has made me laugh out loud.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157

    Good morning all.

    LTNs back in the news today. From the BBC:

    Transport Secretary Mark Harper said it showed the government was "on the side of drivers".

    And not on the side of communities whose l8ves are blighted when their streets are turned into rat runs.

    But if Mr Stringbackedgloves can save minute in his Audil that's what matters.

    "Vote Conservative for more fast moving traffic in your neighbourhood"
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Foxy said:

    Starmerism will be the same sort of lies Blair told. People will believe for a while because they want to forget the Tories.

    He's willing to fight for the right to party!

    https://twitter.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351?t=5A38AcC4XvqkqJ3LkDhbLw&s=19https://twitter.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351?t=5A38AcC4XvqkqJ3LkDhbLw&s=19
    He'll be so boring we'll all end up in an unbeerable deep korma.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    A fascinating concept. Are you saying that all red wall Tories - eg Teesside’s Matt Vickers, Jacob Young, Simon Clarke, Ben Houchen et al - all have to defect to ReFUK?
    Why not most of them are headed to the political abbatoir, and the Tories appear incapable of managing a broad church party atm. It would be a bit like PR where different viewpoints get elected and then have to work out how to live together.
    I absolutely expect that some Tory MPs facing defeat will defect. As you say, they’re nailed on to be demolition so what is there to lose?

    That is a bit different to forced ejection though.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    Do REFUK poll particularly well in the "Red Wall"? The polling tables show support at much the same across England and Wales. Indeed I am pretty sceptical that much differs between "Red Wall" and "Blue Wall" seats that isn't explained by level of education.

    I had to laugh too at this photo of Tice and Anderson on a victory tour:

    https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1769077619129983215?t=4e-hWXqtGvECidovRoX8nA&s=19



    No idea but there is a chance. The Tories have made themselves toast so its a chance versus certainty. And as part of a deal for tories not standing they could tell their voters down south to bote tory to give them the chance of a seat in government.

    It would make it a more interesting election.
    Some sort of electoral pact might happen, with Tory MPs unopposed, but voters don't always do as they are told. These people don't want to vote for Sunaks Tories for a reason, so they won't.

    Of course they dont. but the Tories are paddleless and up the creek, if they want a sniff of getting near government theyre going to have to do something different. Sunak has little to offer because the electorate think he's a goner.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Muesli said:

    Too many people are getting worked up by the idea that the vapid but presentable Penny Mordaunt will straddle the Tories and give them a bounce. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Gee thanks for that bizarre and totally unnecessary mental image.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Eabhal said:

    Good morning all.

    LTNs back in the news today. From the BBC:

    Transport Secretary Mark Harper said it showed the government was "on the side of drivers".

    And not on the side of communities whose l8ves are blighted when their streets are turned into rat runs.

    But if Mr Stringbackedgloves can save minute in his Audil that's what matters.

    "Vote Conservative for more fast moving traffic in your neighbourhood"
    That would work for neighbourhoods on the M6 between junctions 6 and 11, but would require HS2 so they're buggered anyway.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    edited March 17

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    A fascinating concept. Are you saying that all red wall Tories - eg Teesside’s Matt Vickers, Jacob Young, Simon Clarke, Ben Houchen et al - all have to defect to ReFUK?
    Why not most of them are headed to the political abbatoir, and the Tories appear incapable of managing a broad church party atm. It would be a bit like PR where different viewpoints get elected and then have to work out how to live together.
    I absolutely expect that some Tory MPs facing defeat will defect. As you say, they’re nailed on to be demolition so what is there to lose?

    That is a bit different to forced ejection though.
    Any candidate kicked out at the next election has little chance of getting back in to the HoC. He can stand and lose again at the next election and then its on to pastures new and a new Tory candidate in the 2030s.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    JACK_W said:

    Should the Tories wish to avoid a collapse on the scale of Welsh rugby they need PM as PM. She's the only Conservative with credit with the voters. PM is a formidable campaigner and as her consort I'd strike her in a Britannia mode with chariot, spear and union shield pose !!

    She'll likely keep the Tories above 200 seats which will provide a springboard for the 2028/9 GE as the Starmer government drown in a sea of debt.

    Departing Chancellor Hunt note to Reeves. "There's £2.40 down the back of the sofa. Be quick though, it's on HP and the bailiffs are coming on Saturday."

    Great to hear from you. I hope pie production is going well.

    I thought Penny the best candidate in the post Johnson but was significantly underwhelmed by her campaign and debates. She really is quite devoid of ideas, and not willing to face down the Culture Warriors.

    Possibly slightly better than Sunak, but marginally so, and the farce of a further leadership contest would not help the Tories.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Muesli said:

    Too many people are getting worked up by the idea that the vapid but presentable Penny Mordaunt will straddle the Tories and give them a bounce. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Why not. Liz Truss used “straddle” various individual Tory MPs. Probably bounced as well…
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Muesli said:

    Too many people are getting worked up by the idea that the vapid but presentable Penny Mordaunt will straddle the Tories and give them a bounce. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Even though #PM4PM has now bombed twice, the new retail offer of prostate massages for over-55 tory members is going to be the difference that makes the difference.


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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,542
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is a small majority available in this country for compassionate one nation Conservatism. It’s what Cameron almost won with in 2010 and did win with in 2015.
    .

    The trouble is, at both times we were still in the EU and this country felt like a very different place.

    Brexit opened up so many wounds and has been such a cock-up that I’m not convinced one nation Conservatism will ever be a potent force again. It worked for as long as they kept the Blairite types happy and the red wall types holding their noses whilst voting for them. Those days are surely now gone?

    Anecdote. As I queued for ages to get the bloody exit stamp in my passport at Oslo last week, lots of Brits were getting very stressed. They were in real danger of missing their connecting flights. I ushered them into the queue in front of me but couldn’t resist pointing out that it’s all our fault for voting Brexit.

    Every time British people travel our stupidity hits home.
    As I have said consistently both before and after the vote Brexit is nothing like as big a deal as both sides wanted to pretend for different reasons. It is done now and unlikely to be a sticking point going forward.

    What we really need is a government that is willing to address our underlying problems: the horrific trade deficit that is year by year impoverishing us (and which got so much worse in the SM), our poor productivity, our propensity to spend rather than save or invest, our housing problems, our inability to efficiently get around a rather small island, etc etc.

    The present government is not doing much if any of that. I see little sign that Labour will do either although their intentions are so obscure that it is hard to tell. But sooner or later, hopefully when we are not much poorer than we already are, we are going to need to address these issues.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Muesli said:

    Too many people are getting worked up by the idea that the vapid but presentable Penny Mordaunt will straddle the Tories and give them a bounce. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Mordaunt is still available at 5/1 for next Conservative leader, behind favourite Badenoch (7/2) which indicates that the being markets aren't particularly excited.

    The 12/1 for Mordaunt as PM after next general election does suggest that punters think she would improve the Tories odds of winning a majority at the next election by a large amount from their current odds of 14/1.

    The best odds available seem to discount entirely the possibility of Keir Starmer becoming PM without a Labour majority. Both events are best-priced at 1/5. So there's probably still value on Starmer becoming PM after the next GE.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is a small majority available in this country for compassionate one nation Conservatism. It’s what Cameron almost won with in 2010 and did win with in 2015.

    The problem the present government has is that it has not been offering this. By worrying about the small if noisy groups to the right they have lost the much larger group in the centre who are going to vote for Starmer, as they voted for Blair.

    The idea that the solution to this problem is someone like Farage is a serious misdiagnosis of the problem. It is rather a trip into the wilderness.

    The problem being that the Conservative Party membership is small, rich, old and extreme. They're going to react to rejection with a petulant strop and install the most right wing candidate available as the new leader. You can see it coming a mile off.
    Main question is whether they go full on batso in 2025 or save that for 2029?

    Either way, it won't look pretty, and there's a non-trivial risk that there won't be anything left to save afterwards.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Starmerism will be the same sort of lies Blair told. People will believe for a while because they want to forget the Tories.

    He's willing to fight for the right to party!

    https://twitter.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351?t=5A38AcC4XvqkqJ3LkDhbLw&s=19https://twitter.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351?t=5A38AcC4XvqkqJ3LkDhbLw&s=19
    He'll be so boring we'll all end up in an unbeerable deep korma.
    That Kilroy piece warms me to SKS.

    He's the sort of lawyer you want in your corner after trashing the place on a drunken night out and winding up in the dock, hungover and with soiled trousers and vomit coated shoes. So just what the country needs right now!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is a small majority available in this country for compassionate one nation Conservatism. It’s what Cameron almost won with in 2010 and did win with in 2015.
    .

    The trouble is, at both times we were still in the EU and this country felt like a very different place.

    Brexit opened up so many wounds and has been such a cock-up that I’m not convinced one nation Conservatism will ever be a potent force again. It worked for as long as they kept the Blairite types happy and the red wall types holding their noses whilst voting for them. Those days are surely now gone?

    Anecdote. As I queued for ages to get the bloody exit stamp in my passport at Oslo last week, lots of Brits were getting very stressed. They were in real danger of missing their connecting flights. I ushered them into the queue in front of me but couldn’t resist pointing out that it’s all our fault for voting Brexit.

    Every time British people travel our stupidity hits home.
    As I have said consistently both before and after the vote Brexit is nothing like as big a deal as both sides wanted to pretend for different reasons. It is done now and unlikely to be a sticking point going forward.

    What we really need is a government that is willing to address our underlying problems: the horrific trade deficit that is year by year impoverishing us (and which got so much worse in the SM), our poor productivity, our propensity to spend rather than save or invest, our housing problems, our inability to efficiently get around a rather small island, etc etc.

    The present government is not doing much if any of that. I see little sign that Labour will do either although their intentions are so obscure that it is hard to tell. But sooner or later, hopefully when we are not much poorer than we already are, we are going to need to address these issues.
    Absolutely. Currently politics consists of spin doctor jostling and nothing serious is being done. It still is the case that its the economy stupid.


  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    DavidL said:

    Brexit is nothing like as big a deal as both sides wanted to pretend for different reasons. It is done now and unlikely to be a sticking point going forward.

    What we really need is a government that is willing to address our underlying problems

    Brexit is not nearly "done", and it solved exactly none of our underlying problems, while exacerbating many of them.

    Apart from that...
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    The fact is that PM4PM won’t automatically help the Tories, but there is at least a chance she might. At the moment, there seems to be no chance that Rishi can turn it around.

    So when you’re desperate and staring down the barrel of a historic defeat, rolling the dice with a presentable candidate might be worth it. What does Rishi offer that PM doesn’t?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is a small majority available in this country for compassionate one nation Conservatism. It’s what Cameron almost won with in 2010 and did win with in 2015.
    .

    The trouble is, at both times we were still in the EU and this country felt like a very different place.

    Brexit opened up so many wounds and has been such a cock-up that I’m not convinced one nation Conservatism will ever be a potent force again. It worked for as long as they kept the Blairite types happy and the red wall types holding their noses whilst voting for them. Those days are surely now gone?

    Anecdote. As I queued for ages to get the bloody exit stamp in my passport at Oslo last week, lots of Brits were getting very stressed. They were in real danger of missing their connecting flights. I ushered them into the queue in front of me but couldn’t resist pointing out that it’s all our fault for voting Brexit.

    Every time British people travel our stupidity hits home.
    As I have said consistently both before and after the vote Brexit is nothing like as big a deal as both sides wanted to pretend for different reasons. It is done now and unlikely to be a sticking point going forward.

    What we really need is a government that is willing to address our underlying problems: the horrific trade deficit that is year by year impoverishing us (and which got so much worse in the SM), our poor productivity, our propensity to spend rather than save or invest, our housing problems, our inability to efficiently get around a rather small island, etc etc.

    The present government is not doing much if any of that. I see little sign that Labour will do either although their intentions are so obscure that it is hard to tell. But sooner or later, hopefully when we are not much poorer than we already are, we are going to need to address these issues.
    The parties may not be shouting about Brexit, but it is very much there in the background. The Brexiteers, which is approximately the same as the current Conservative Party, promised a utopia and it hasn’t happened. That’s why their polling is so bad.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    If the retention of power is the Conservatives's sole aim, it's a win, win.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Brexit is nothing like as big a deal as both sides wanted to pretend for different reasons. It is done now and unlikely to be a sticking point going forward.

    What we really need is a government that is willing to address our underlying problems

    Brexit is not nearly "done", and it solved exactly none of our underlying problems, while exacerbating many of them.

    Apart from that...
    Indeed. They're still sorting out UK customs after many, many postponements.

    That is not a state in control of its destiny, though this time it's the Brexiteers who are the government.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Asked what chance his party had of winning the next general election, a former Tory cabinet minister, who had occupied a senior government post until not long ago, threw his eyes skywards and replied in an instant: “Zero.”

    It was last Wednesday afternoon in the Palace of Westminster. The former minister then paused, grimaced, and added that with every passing day, as the chaos grew, the chances were likely to diminish further – into negative territory.

    Another ex-cabinet minister – also from the right of the party – had a different way of answering the same question minutes later.

    There were two possibilities for the Tories to drag themselves back from the brink, he believed. One was for Rishi Sunak to be bolder and abandon more green policies while also abolishing inheritance tax. “But he won’t do that,” he added. “He is just too cautious.”

    The other was for the party to replace Sunak with another leader: “But that would be madness. It won’t happen.” He too saw no real hope of a miracle recovery for his party before the next election.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/17/our-chances-zero-and-getting-worse-inside-a-tory-edeath-spiral
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is a small majority available in this country for compassionate one nation Conservatism. It’s what Cameron almost won with in 2010 and did win with in 2015.
    .

    The trouble is, at both times we were still in the EU and this country felt like a very different place.

    Brexit opened up so many wounds and has been such a cock-up that I’m not convinced one nation Conservatism will ever be a potent force again. It worked for as long as they kept the Blairite types happy and the red wall types holding their noses whilst voting for them. Those days are surely now gone?

    Anecdote. As I queued for ages to get the bloody exit stamp in my passport at Oslo last week, lots of Brits were getting very stressed. They were in real danger of missing their connecting flights. I ushered them into the queue in front of me but couldn’t resist pointing out that it’s all our fault for voting Brexit.

    Every time British people travel our stupidity hits home.
    As I have said consistently both before and after the vote Brexit is nothing like as big a deal as both sides wanted to pretend for different reasons. It is done now and unlikely to be a sticking point going forward.

    What we really need is a government that is willing to address our underlying problems: the horrific trade deficit that is year by year impoverishing us (and which got so much worse in the SM), our poor productivity, our propensity to spend rather than save or invest, our housing problems, our inability to efficiently get around a rather small island, etc etc.

    The present government is not doing much if any of that. I see little sign that Labour will do either although their intentions are so obscure that it is hard to tell. But sooner or later, hopefully when we are not much poorer than we already are, we are going to need to address these issues.
    The parties may not be shouting about Brexit, but it is very much there in the background. The Brexiteers, which is approximately the same as the current Conservative Party, promised a utopia and it hasn’t happened. That’s why their polling is so bad.
    I see we're still in 2016 in parts of the site.

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904
    ,
    ydoethur said:

    Muesli said:

    Too many people are getting worked up by the idea that the vapid but presentable Penny Mordaunt will straddle the Tories and give them a bounce. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Gee thanks for that bizarre and totally unnecessary mental image.
    It’s briefly dislodged the memory of encountering that Farage pic on a Sunday morning, so I was quite grateful.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904
    Another possible Trump dividend.

    Those who do not follow Balkan politics will not grasp the full scope of this story.

    It is two foreign govts covertly channeling $ to Trump in exchange for his (2nd) admin's support for potentially the wholesale redrawing of the map the southeast Europe. ..

    https://twitter.com/JasminMuj/status/1768781907847000496
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The Tories cant win the Red Wall. They should just give it up and let Reform stand in their place. That way they might then remain in govt as part of a coalition.

    Do REFUK poll particularly well in the "Red Wall"? The polling tables show support at much the same across England and Wales. Indeed I am pretty sceptical that much differs between "Red Wall" and "Blue Wall" seats that isn't explained by level of education.

    I had to laugh too at this photo of Tice and Anderson on a victory tour:

    https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1769077619129983215?t=4e-hWXqtGvECidovRoX8nA&s=19



    No idea but there is a chance. The Tories have made themselves toast so its a chance versus certainty. And as part of a deal for tories not standing they could tell their voters down south to bote tory to give them the chance of a seat in government.

    It would make it a more interesting election.
    Some sort of electoral pact might happen, with Tory MPs unopposed, but voters don't always do as they are told. These people don't want to vote for Sunaks Tories for a reason, so they won't.

    Besides, the "Rishi is in Nigel's pocket" poster designs itself, even without AI.
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,627

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is a small majority available in this country for compassionate one nation Conservatism. It’s what Cameron almost won with in 2010 and did win with in 2015.
    .

    The trouble is, at both times we were still in the EU and this country felt like a very different place.

    Brexit opened up so many wounds and has been such a cock-up that I’m not convinced one nation Conservatism will ever be a potent force again. It worked for as long as they kept the Blairite types happy and the red wall types holding their noses whilst voting for them. Those days are surely now gone?

    Anecdote. As I queued for ages to get the bloody exit stamp in my passport at Oslo last week, lots of Brits were getting very stressed. They were in real danger of missing their connecting flights. I ushered them into the queue in front of me but couldn’t resist pointing out that it’s all our fault for voting Brexit.

    Every time British people travel our stupidity hits home.
    As I have said consistently both before and after the vote Brexit is nothing like as big a deal as both sides wanted to pretend for different reasons. It is done now and unlikely to be a sticking point going forward.

    What we really need is a government that is willing to address our underlying problems: the horrific trade deficit that is year by year impoverishing us (and which got so much worse in the SM), our poor productivity, our propensity to spend rather than save or invest, our housing problems, our inability to efficiently get around a rather small island, etc etc.

    The present government is not doing much if any of that. I see little sign that Labour will do either although their intentions are so obscure that it is hard to tell. But sooner or later, hopefully when we are not much poorer than we already are, we are going to need to address these issues.
    The parties may not be shouting about Brexit, but it is very much there in the background. The Brexiteers, which is approximately the same as the current Conservative Party, promised a utopia and it hasn’t happened. That’s why their polling is so bad.
    I see we're still in 2016 in parts of the site.

    ....some of us, Alanbrooke, are in the river that flows through Cairo...
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited March 17
    ydoethur said:

    Muesli said:

    Too many people are getting worked up by the idea that the vapid but presentable Penny Mordaunt will straddle the Tories and give them a bounce. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Gee thanks for that bizarre and totally unnecessary mental image.
    The mental image of a "bouncing", "straddling" Penny Mordaunt makes an older male voter reach for the ballot paper and pencil.

    So she's an intellectual vacuum, but she looks like Catherine Deneuve. That's enough for some of us.
This discussion has been closed.