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Could Lee Anderson and his ilk cause an early election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    I think on balance I’d like it to be May but I need to remove that from what is most likely.

    My gut says Sunak is trying to stay PM as long as possible. But on the other hand will he actually make it to the end of the year?

    If Sunak genuinely intends for a January 2025 election (to stay as long as possible) then he won't announce it to anyone. The Conservatives would remove him if they thought he would hang on to the death.

    So instead, mutter about an Autumn election, which he's done and his party accepts. However, just do nothing. When mid September comes, and Brady(?) comes to Sunak and asks when the announcement is going to be, Sunak just says, "Ha, fooled you. It's Tuesday 28th January 2025 after all, and its too late to replace me now."

    Brady and his party will be furious, but Sunak would be right. They couldn't replace him in time to force an October election, so they're knackered.

    I'm not a betting man (hence why I'm on this site) but it might be worth a few quid on Sunak to still be PM on 31st December - not just the outside possibility he wins the election, but to cover the possibility it hasn't yet been held.
    A 2025 election is 10/1

    I can't find any odds on British PM on December 31st, though the odds on Rishi Sunak departing as Tory leader in 2025 or later seem very short - 4/5 - I guess there's an expectation that he'll hang around for a few months while the contest to replace him concludes.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    Taz said:

    Just Stop Oil are threatening to disrupt peoples summer holidays by sitting on runways to stop flights.

    Apparently.

    Not sure if I buy this or whether it is just GB News creating a story out of very little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/gb-news-hosts-clash-with-just-stop-oil-campaigner-over-plans-to-disrupt-summer-flights/ar-BB1jHFNJ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=b0ab977e7f534df1ae6f65621afa7c7c&ei=7

    I expect it's one of a number of ideas being discussed and considered. It's the sort of thing undercover police would suggest, as it would enable them to use anti-terrorism powers against the protestors.

    Taz said:

    Just Stop Oil are threatening to disrupt peoples summer holidays by sitting on runways to stop flights.

    Apparently.

    Not sure if I buy this or whether it is just GB News creating a story out of very little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/gb-news-hosts-clash-with-just-stop-oil-campaigner-over-plans-to-disrupt-summer-flights/ar-BB1jHFNJ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=b0ab977e7f534df1ae6f65621afa7c7c&ei=7

    I expect it's one of a number of ideas being discussed and considered. It's the sort of thing undercover police would suggest, as it would enable them to use anti-terrorism powers against the protestors.
    I think the people involved are of a mindset to consider whatever they do, justified.

    Police provocation has happened. Just not sure it is needed.
    There's no question they would consider it justified. But generally speaking they would be looking for the best ratio of impact to personal consequences, and disruption airports isn't that.

    The extent of police infiltration and provocation of these sorts of groups in the past had far surpassed what we ever suspected. You can be sure they will want to create a situation where there is a split between moderates and hotheads, and to encourage actions that will be easiest to prosecute and impose heavy sentences.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of AI, it is now, apparently, coming for musicians


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/now-ai-is-coming-for-musicians/


    Incidentally there is definitely “AI” manipulation in the royal image. Absolute hallmarks. Also I am pretty convinced the Mirror photo Ed is correct: the AI took the Vogue cover shot of Kate’s face and reworked it into this composite. Quite a desperate move, as the Vogue photo is years old

    Failed cosmetic surgery?
    I do hope not. The pressure to stay youthful is quite intense in the public eye.
    What kind of cosmetic surgery needs weeks in hospital?

    I guess it is possible she had some cosmetic surgery done even as she had other surgery. Maybe. I dunno

    Poor Kate. It all feels very ominous
    The trend in cosmetic surgery since the mid-Noughties is away from surgery to injectables, replacing the scalpel with the needle. So the era of drastic plastic surgery is receding into the past. Bone resection or repositioning such as bilateral sagittal splitting osteotomy BSSO (the jaw is repositioned to cure an over/underbite) would be a biggie, but she's never had that. Circumferential/360/belt lipectomy is one of the bigger soft-tissue surgeries, but again that doesn't need prolonged hospital stays over months. The obvious one (hysterectomy) would explain the length and the swelling, plus post-surgical depression would make her less inclined to take public duties. Another one that has been suggesting is repairing abdominal muscle tears and separation induced by pregnancy, which is also painful and movement limiting.

    In short, whatever happens, she's had a hard time, she's feeling rather down, and really does not need people gawping at her whilst she recovers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128

    kjh said:

    And almost as exciting as a trip to Columbia I have had my first ever visit to a Greggs at Liverpool Street station as I make my way to Southwold to collect the car we abandoned there when I had to drive up to collect my wife last week after she broke her wrist. How the other half live eh.

    Oh dear, commiserations to your wife. I broke my wrist last November, I was recommended to have surgery, though I was told that I could opt for non-surgical "fixation" which avoids an operation but means a longer period in plaster. I opted for surgery and I've been glad I did - I had the plaster off two weeks after the op and could immediately use the wrist for light activity, gradually increasing the amount of weight I could put on it until now, 12 weeks after the op, flexibility and strength is more or less as it was before. So to anyone in a similar position I would recommend taking the surgical route.
    Also commiserations.

    I'm interested - I thought that one could normally drive with a fractured or broken wrist.

    But I've never broken one, and have a gearbox which is automatic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,066
    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of AI, it is now, apparently, coming for musicians


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/now-ai-is-coming-for-musicians/


    Incidentally there is definitely “AI” manipulation in the royal image. Absolute hallmarks. Also I am pretty convinced the Mirror photo Ed is correct: the AI took the Vogue cover shot of Kate’s face and reworked it into this composite. Quite a desperate move, as the Vogue photo is years old

    Failed cosmetic surgery?
    I do hope not. The pressure to stay youthful is quite intense in the public eye.
    What kind of cosmetic surgery needs weeks in hospital?

    I guess it is possible she had some cosmetic surgery done even as she had other surgery. Maybe. I dunno

    Poor Kate. It all feels very ominous
    It's not the surgery, it's the recovery.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 12
    Gove plans to use parliamentary privilege to name extremist organisations. Quite genuinely what definition of extremism doesn't include a political party whose major funder says he wants to kill back people, and for that party to think the remark totally normal?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    MattW said:

    kjh said:

    And almost as exciting as a trip to Columbia I have had my first ever visit to a Greggs at Liverpool Street station as I make my way to Southwold to collect the car we abandoned there when I had to drive up to collect my wife last week after she broke her wrist. How the other half live eh.

    Oh dear, commiserations to your wife. I broke my wrist last November, I was recommended to have surgery, though I was told that I could opt for non-surgical "fixation" which avoids an operation but means a longer period in plaster. I opted for surgery and I've been glad I did - I had the plaster off two weeks after the op and could immediately use the wrist for light activity, gradually increasing the amount of weight I could put on it until now, 12 weeks after the op, flexibility and strength is more or less as it was before. So to anyone in a similar position I would recommend taking the surgical route.
    Also commiserations.

    I'm interested - I thought that one could normally drive with a fractured or broken wrist.

    But I've never broken one, and have a gearbox which is automatic.
    You shouldn't drive with your wrist in a cast, you cannot grip properly. I started soon after the cast came off but it was uncomfortable at first.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    edited March 12
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of AI, it is now, apparently, coming for musicians


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/now-ai-is-coming-for-musicians/


    Incidentally there is definitely “AI” manipulation in the royal image. Absolute hallmarks. Also I am pretty convinced the Mirror photo Ed is correct: the AI took the Vogue cover shot of Kate’s face and reworked it into this composite. Quite a desperate move, as the Vogue photo is years old

    Failed cosmetic surgery?
    I do hope not. The pressure to stay youthful is quite intense in the public eye.
    What kind of cosmetic surgery needs weeks in hospital?

    I guess it is possible she had some cosmetic surgery done even as she had other surgery. Maybe. I dunno

    Poor Kate. It all feels very ominous
    The trend in cosmetic surgery since the mid-Noughties is away from surgery to injectables, replacing the scalpel with the needle. So the era of drastic plastic surgery is receding into the past. Bone resection or repositioning such as bilateral sagittal splitting osteotomy BSSO (the jaw is repositioned to cure an over/underbite) would be a biggie, but she's never had that. Circumferential/360/belt lipectomy is one of the bigger soft-tissue surgeries, but again that doesn't need prolonged hospital stays over months. The obvious one (hysterectomy) would explain the length and the swelling, plus post-surgical depression would make her less inclined to take public duties. Another one that has been suggesting is repairing abdominal muscle tears and separation induced by pregnancy, which is also painful and movement limiting.

    In short, whatever happens, she's had a hard time, she's feeling rather down, and really does not need people gawping at her whilst she recovers.
    Most hysterectomies are same day or overnight these days. Even with one that requires open abdominal surgery, they aim to have you home within 5 days. Sure, there's substantial recovery time needed after that, but it's always better to do that at home rather than hospital if you can.

    I've seen it suggested that the only things that could explain a planned stay of two weeks for abdominal surgery are a kidney or liver transplant, or some sort of very complex bowel resection. Whatever it was, the length of time suggests that it was something incredibly serious.

    It's to be completely expected that she'll be out of action for several months after something like that. And probably light duties only for the rest of the year.

    If the Palace just said something along those lines, everyone would back off in sympathy. It's the stupid "she's absolutely fine, and here's a fake picture to prove it!" stuff that's fanning the flames...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Heavy going confirmed. Slowest opening race this century.

    Immediate thought - Lossiemouth up in trip on heavy. Love Envoi would prefer the longer distance in rematch anyway. And is there an opening here for Marie’s Rock too? Good odds on those two if you want to oppose Lossie 😯
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of AI, it is now, apparently, coming for musicians


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/now-ai-is-coming-for-musicians/


    Incidentally there is definitely “AI” manipulation in the royal image. Absolute hallmarks. Also I am pretty convinced the Mirror photo Ed is correct: the AI took the Vogue cover shot of Kate’s face and reworked it into this composite. Quite a desperate move, as the Vogue photo is years old

    Failed cosmetic surgery?
    I do hope not. The pressure to stay youthful is quite intense in the public eye.
    What kind of cosmetic surgery needs weeks in hospital?

    I guess it is possible she had some cosmetic surgery done even as she had other surgery. Maybe. I dunno

    Poor Kate. It all feels very ominous
    The trend in cosmetic surgery since the mid-Noughties is away from surgery to injectables, replacing the scalpel with the needle. So the era of drastic plastic surgery is receding into the past. Bone resection or repositioning such as bilateral sagittal splitting osteotomy BSSO (the jaw is repositioned to cure an over/underbite) would be a biggie, but she's never had that. Circumferential/360/belt lipectomy is one of the bigger soft-tissue surgeries, but again that doesn't need prolonged hospital stays over months. The obvious one (hysterectomy) would explain the length and the swelling, plus post-surgical depression would make her less inclined to take public duties. Another one that has been suggesting is repairing abdominal muscle tears and separation induced by pregnancy, which is also painful and movement limiting.

    In short, whatever happens, she's had a hard time, she's feeling rather down, and really does not need people gawping at her whilst she recovers.
    Botox and fillers cannot really replace a facelift - they do very different things, and they have very obvious signs. A successful facelift is largely invisible, doesn’t require maintenence, and lasts about 10 years. It's not uncommon for celebs to use scheduled hospital treatment to go under the knife.

    The Royal family deserve some good fortune but they'll be back.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    Nigelb said:

    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338

    Shall we head back to the thread when this broke and have a look at the comments/advice/betting advice contained therein ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,066
    Trump's VP pick will have to sign up in advance for stealing the election.

    Trump Veepstakes have new litmus test: Breaking with Pence over 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4524507-trump-veepstakes-litmus-test-pence-2020/
    Would-be running mates for former President Trump are facing a new litmus test as they audition for a spot on the Republican ticket: whether they would have certified the 2020 election results and how they would handle certifying votes in the future.
    One by one in recent weeks, officials who are on the former president’s growing list of potential running mates have been asked whether they would have acted as then-Vice President Mike Pence did in certifying the 2020 results despite Trump’s pressuring him to reject the outcome...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338

    Shall we head back to the thread when this broke and have a look at the comments/advice/betting advice contained therein ?
    Yes. I said don’t panic. It was media fluff.

    The State of the Nation has knocked all that on the head.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of AI, it is now, apparently, coming for musicians


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/now-ai-is-coming-for-musicians/


    Incidentally there is definitely “AI” manipulation in the royal image. Absolute hallmarks. Also I am pretty convinced the Mirror photo Ed is correct: the AI took the Vogue cover shot of Kate’s face and reworked it into this composite. Quite a desperate move, as the Vogue photo is years old

    Failed cosmetic surgery?
    I do hope not. The pressure to stay youthful is quite intense in the public eye.
    What kind of cosmetic surgery needs weeks in hospital?

    I guess it is possible she had some cosmetic surgery done even as she had other surgery. Maybe. I dunno

    Poor Kate. It all feels very ominous
    The trend in cosmetic surgery since the mid-Noughties is away from surgery to injectables, replacing the scalpel with the needle. So the era of drastic plastic surgery is receding into the past. Bone resection or repositioning such as bilateral sagittal splitting osteotomy BSSO (the jaw is repositioned to cure an over/underbite) would be a biggie, but she's never had that. Circumferential/360/belt lipectomy is one of the bigger soft-tissue surgeries, but again that doesn't need prolonged hospital stays over months. The obvious one (hysterectomy) would explain the length and the swelling, plus post-surgical depression would make her less inclined to take public duties. Another one that has been suggesting is repairing abdominal muscle tears and separation induced by pregnancy, which is also painful and movement limiting.

    In short, whatever happens, she's had a hard time, she's feeling rather down, and really does not need people gawping at her whilst she recovers.
    IIRC the recovery time from a hysterectomy is 6 weeks, meaning that you can drive and go back to work at that stage, not necessarily that you are 100% recovered (my sister had one about 15 years ago). If that is what Kate had she should certainly be capable of appearing in public and smiling at a few photographers by now.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,814

    So it's tiny, tiny violin day on PB.

    A denial of random male to female violence, and a denial of white privilege makes my heart bleed for all these PB snowflakes. In my sixty two years no random stranger has ever told me to "f*** off home whitey".

    What a weird take? Who is denying male to female violence?

    And what the eff is white privilege?
    White privilege is the ability to not have to learn about white privilege.
    Everyone has different advantages and disadvantages in life, for sure. I am very lucky. I had two loving parents who are still married after 50+ years, a stable home life, and attended a grammar school. I have since studied and worked at Uni ever since.

    Some of that is down to my ability, some is luck. A black kid born on a sink estate with an absent father may be seen as someone who has not had the breaks in life, and that's true. But I believe in this country we try very hard to give people an even chance. Far better than most other places.
    Sure, we are better than most other places and should be proud of that. Equally there are still problems and it is very obvious what white privilege is, even if it is a divisive term I would not personally encourage.
    The use of white privilege as a term is just wrong. What white privilege does a boy born on a sink estate to a single mother on benefits with an absent father have compared to a black boy born into an upper middle class family who attends a good school etc. Its meaningless.
    Its not completely wrong but it only works in the general rather than specific. I don't advocate it using it, but the faux ignorance of what it means is certainly more grating than its use.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,988
    edited March 12
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    And almost as exciting as a trip to Columbia I have had my first ever visit to a Greggs at Liverpool Street station as I make my way to Southwold to collect the car we abandoned there when I had to drive up to collect my wife last week after she broke her wrist. How the other half live eh.

    You’re not helping me decide. I have one week left. I can either go along the coast to Santa Marta, death place of Bolivar, under the spectacular Sierra Nevada mountains. Or I can plunge inland into searing heat, and a totally forgotten corner of Colombia

    The first is obviously more practical. And not a bad
    option. But the second is the road less travelled…
    You could try to view the longest theoretical line of sight on the planet from Pico Cristobal Colon south west to Cerro Paramillo - 501 km if you can manage the 5,730 metres ascent...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,066
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338

    Shall we head back to the thread when this broke and have a look at the comments/advice/betting advice contained therein ?
    The Hur report did a certain amount of damage which can't be undone. And it's pretty clear he knew what he was doing.
    Litigating it won't help Biden, so treating it with mild ridicule, as above, is probably his best option.

    What's also pretty clear is that Biden is not gaga - but that doesn't mean his age isn't an issue.
    Four more years is a big ask.

    But fair to say our super-predictor flint knapper didn't have one of his best days.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    Nigelb said:

    Trump's VP pick will have to sign up in advance for stealing the election.

    Trump Veepstakes have new litmus test: Breaking with Pence over 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4524507-trump-veepstakes-litmus-test-pence-2020/
    Would-be running mates for former President Trump are facing a new litmus test as they audition for a spot on the Republican ticket: whether they would have certified the 2020 election results and how they would handle certifying votes in the future.
    One by one in recent weeks, officials who are on the former president’s growing list of potential running mates have been asked whether they would have acted as then-Vice President Mike Pence did in certifying the 2020 results despite Trump’s pressuring him to reject the outcome...

    Unfortunately for Trump, Kamala Harris will be overseeing that bit of the process this time round.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump's VP pick will have to sign up in advance for stealing the election.

    Trump Veepstakes have new litmus test: Breaking with Pence over 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4524507-trump-veepstakes-litmus-test-pence-2020/
    Would-be running mates for former President Trump are facing a new litmus test as they audition for a spot on the Republican ticket: whether they would have certified the 2020 election results and how they would handle certifying votes in the future.
    One by one in recent weeks, officials who are on the former president’s growing list of potential running mates have been asked whether they would have acted as then-Vice President Mike Pence did in certifying the 2020 results despite Trump’s pressuring him to reject the outcome...

    Unfortunately for Trump, Kamala Harris will be overseeing that bit of the process this time round.
    He's thinking about the third term.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,066
    edited March 12
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338

    Shall we head back to the thread when this broke and have a look at the comments/advice/betting advice contained therein ?
    The Hur report did a certain amount of damage which can't be undone. And it's pretty clear he knew what he was doing.
    Litigating it won't help Biden, so treating it with mild ridicule, as above, is probably his best option.

    What's also pretty clear is that Biden is not gaga - but that doesn't mean his age isn't an issue.
    Four more years is a big ask.

    But fair to say our super-predictor flint knapper didn't have one of his best days.
    As I noted at the time, the headlines are what get remembered.
    Had this broken in October, Biden, like Clinton, would have been toast.

    The Washington Post ran 33 stories about Biden's mental fitness in the four days following the Hur report, per @JuddLegum.

    After reviewing the transcript, the paper concludes that Biden "doesn’t come across as being as absent-minded as Hur has made him out to be."

    https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1767539854273909043

    You don't say.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    So it's tiny, tiny violin day on PB.

    A denial of random male to female violence, and a denial of white privilege makes my heart bleed for all these PB snowflakes. In my sixty two years no random stranger has ever told me to "f*** off home whitey".

    What a weird take? Who is denying male to female violence?

    And what the eff is white privilege?
    Pete has been on the singing ginger I think
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited March 12
    Dura_Ace said:

    Kategate is notable because the RF are being mercilessly mocked. The memes just won't stop coming on my socials. The feels like a new and deleterious development for the institution.

    I wonder if it is because people are feeling they can't spot any difference between the RF and Love Island/BigBrother/Eat Wallaby Genitals In the Jungle. At least how the RF is presented in the media.

    It might be relevant that rather a lot of right wing pols and/or their family members have been included in the above TV shows, plus Mr Galloway (up to you whether he self defines as right wing pol/cat/whatever). As, indeed, has a rellie of the Duchess of Rothesay very recently. Her uncle?

    I'm old enough to remember the shock and tut-tutting when the younger Royals took part in a reality TV show, back around 1970 or so. But it was only of the level of It's a Knockout/Jeux sans Frontieres. About as toxic as a primary school sports day.

    (That is quite separate from the 1987 disaster - but one could argue that the 1987 event was a step towards today.
    https://www.sky.com/watch/title/programme/5dff823b-6bf0-391b-86da-a7bce718f7a2
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of AI, it is now, apparently, coming for musicians


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/now-ai-is-coming-for-musicians/


    Incidentally there is definitely “AI” manipulation in the royal image. Absolute hallmarks. Also I am pretty convinced the Mirror photo Ed is correct: the AI took the Vogue cover shot of Kate’s face and reworked it into this composite. Quite a desperate move, as the Vogue photo is years old

    Failed cosmetic surgery?
    I do hope not. The pressure to stay youthful is quite intense in the public eye.
    What kind of cosmetic surgery needs weeks in hospital?

    I guess it is possible she had some cosmetic surgery done even as she had other surgery. Maybe. I dunno

    Poor Kate. It all feels very ominous
    Conversely, what kind of "abdominal" surgery causes you to desperately hide your face from the adoring monarchist faithful for weeks?
    Also 4 months to recover , must hav ebeen a big operation to say the least
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,066
    edited March 12
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump's VP pick will have to sign up in advance for stealing the election.

    Trump Veepstakes have new litmus test: Breaking with Pence over 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4524507-trump-veepstakes-litmus-test-pence-2020/
    Would-be running mates for former President Trump are facing a new litmus test as they audition for a spot on the Republican ticket: whether they would have certified the 2020 election results and how they would handle certifying votes in the future.
    One by one in recent weeks, officials who are on the former president’s growing list of potential running mates have been asked whether they would have acted as then-Vice President Mike Pence did in certifying the 2020 results despite Trump’s pressuring him to reject the outcome...

    Unfortunately for Trump, Kamala Harris will be overseeing that bit of the process this time round.
    Criminals rely on others following the rules.
    Otherwise he'd be panicking.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Wow. What a race!

    I have Garelic warrior , 1st one in a trixie of Mullins horse. Other 2 are hot favourites mind you.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    malcolmg said:

    So it's tiny, tiny violin day on PB.

    A denial of random male to female violence, and a denial of white privilege makes my heart bleed for all these PB snowflakes. In my sixty two years no random stranger has ever told me to "f*** off home whitey".

    What a weird take? Who is denying male to female violence?

    And what the eff is white privilege?
    Pete has been on the singing ginger I think
    Surely on Buckfast you want to befriend total strangers, not wind them up, constantly. 🙂

    I’m on cocktails. What are you on this afternoon Malc. Other than Liari
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump's VP pick will have to sign up in advance for stealing the election.

    Trump Veepstakes have new litmus test: Breaking with Pence over 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4524507-trump-veepstakes-litmus-test-pence-2020/
    Would-be running mates for former President Trump are facing a new litmus test as they audition for a spot on the Republican ticket: whether they would have certified the 2020 election results and how they would handle certifying votes in the future.
    One by one in recent weeks, officials who are on the former president’s growing list of potential running mates have been asked whether they would have acted as then-Vice President Mike Pence did in certifying the 2020 results despite Trump’s pressuring him to reject the outcome...

    Unfortunately for Trump, Kamala Harris will be overseeing that bit of the process this time round.
    Unless, she has succeeded to the Presidency in the meantime. Then, if Congress refuses to confirm her pick for VP, then the President pro tempore of the Senate would preside - but unluckily for Trump, the Democrats currently enjoy a majority in the Senate, so that's one of them too.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,951
    After EVRI/Hermes really getting their act together over the last year or so they've just lost 2 of my parcels in a row. Their automated bot answers online and by phone are worse than ever. Roll on our malevolent AI overlords who will at least give a facsimile of an intelligent response even if they kill you with lasers afterwards.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited March 12
    malcolmg said:

    Wow. What a race!

    I have Garelic warrior , 1st one in a trixie of Mullins horse. Other 2 are hot favourites mind you.
    👍🏻That was a “don’t forsake me oh my darling” performance - put it together beautifully when the experts said it was certain to go wrong.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    MattW said:

    kjh said:

    And almost as exciting as a trip to Columbia I have had my first ever visit to a Greggs at Liverpool Street station as I make my way to Southwold to collect the car we abandoned there when I had to drive up to collect my wife last week after she broke her wrist. How the other half live eh.

    Oh dear, commiserations to your wife. I broke my wrist last November, I was recommended to have surgery, though I was told that I could opt for non-surgical "fixation" which avoids an operation but means a longer period in plaster. I opted for surgery and I've been glad I did - I had the plaster off two weeks after the op and could immediately use the wrist for light activity, gradually increasing the amount of weight I could put on it until now, 12 weeks after the op, flexibility and strength is more or less as it was before. So to anyone in a similar position I would recommend taking the surgical route.
    Also commiserations.

    I'm interested - I thought that one could normally drive with a fractured or broken wrist.

    But I've never broken one, and have a gearbox which is automatic.
    Sister in law broke her arm and hip, they did non - surgical fixation rather than replace elbow joint as "out of stock", many months later her arm is useless. Hip does not seem to be much better as he can hardly walk her length either.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Heavy going confirmed. Slowest opening race this century.

    Immediate thought - Lossiemouth up in trip on heavy. Love Envoi would prefer the longer distance in rematch anyway. And is there an opening here for Marie’s Rock too? Good odds on those two if you want to oppose Lossie 😯

    Too late I have done Lossiemouth
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,814
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338

    Shall we head back to the thread when this broke and have a look at the comments/advice/betting advice contained therein ?
    The Hur report did a certain amount of damage which can't be undone. And it's pretty clear he knew what he was doing.
    Litigating it won't help Biden, so treating it with mild ridicule, as above, is probably his best option.

    What's also pretty clear is that Biden is not gaga - but that doesn't mean his age isn't an issue.
    Four more years is a big ask.

    But fair to say our super-predictor flint knapper didn't have one of his best days.
    My parents are a similar age. I'd probably back them to get a name wrong at least 1 time in 10 at evens, but back them at 1.01 to be sane enough to make major decisions on a rational basis. It is so far from unusual to get names wrong or slow down speech mid sentence that the attempts to show he is gaga will only convince those who thought he was more gaga than Trump in 2020, of which there are sadly plenty including a few on here.

    At the moment the polling includes people who are hoping it wont be Biden v Trump and their views will create a significant distortion. Once it becomes clear to all it is Biden v Trump then the polls shall start to be a decent predictor of the real result (which may be different to the eventual Supreme Court results).
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump's VP pick will have to sign up in advance for stealing the election.

    Trump Veepstakes have new litmus test: Breaking with Pence over 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4524507-trump-veepstakes-litmus-test-pence-2020/
    Would-be running mates for former President Trump are facing a new litmus test as they audition for a spot on the Republican ticket: whether they would have certified the 2020 election results and how they would handle certifying votes in the future.
    One by one in recent weeks, officials who are on the former president’s growing list of potential running mates have been asked whether they would have acted as then-Vice President Mike Pence did in certifying the 2020 results despite Trump’s pressuring him to reject the outcome...

    Unfortunately for Trump, Kamala Harris will be overseeing that bit of the process this time round.
    And fortunately for Biden, this means the more sane Republican types will be ruled out.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    malcolmg said:

    Heavy going confirmed. Slowest opening race this century.

    Immediate thought - Lossiemouth up in trip on heavy. Love Envoi would prefer the longer distance in rematch anyway. And is there an opening here for Marie’s Rock too? Good odds on those two if you want to oppose Lossie 😯

    Too late I have done Lossiemouth
    Me too.

    She’s the new superstar, she’ll do this.

    Probably.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338

    Shall we head back to the thread when this broke and have a look at the comments/advice/betting advice contained therein ?
    The Hur report did a certain amount of damage which can't be undone. And it's pretty clear he knew what he was doing.
    Litigating it won't help Biden, so treating it with mild ridicule, as above, is probably his best option.

    What's also pretty clear is that Biden is not gaga - but that doesn't mean his age isn't an issue.
    Four more years is a big ask.

    But fair to say our super-predictor flint knapper didn't have one of his best days.
    My parents are a similar age. I'd probably back them to get a name wrong at least 1 time in 10 at evens, but back them at 1.01 to be sane enough to make major decisions on a rational basis. It is so far from unusual to get names wrong or slow down speech mid sentence that the attempts to show he is gaga will only convince those who thought he was more gaga than Trump in 2020, of which there are sadly plenty including a few on here.

    At the moment the polling includes people who are hoping it wont be Biden v Trump and their views will create a significant distortion. Once it becomes clear to all it is Biden v Trump then the polls shall start to be a decent predictor of the real result (which may be different to the eventual Supreme Court results).
    It's not the Supreme Court that really matters here if it's close; it's who controls Congress and the state counting processes.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump's VP pick will have to sign up in advance for stealing the election.

    Trump Veepstakes have new litmus test: Breaking with Pence over 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4524507-trump-veepstakes-litmus-test-pence-2020/
    Would-be running mates for former President Trump are facing a new litmus test as they audition for a spot on the Republican ticket: whether they would have certified the 2020 election results and how they would handle certifying votes in the future.
    One by one in recent weeks, officials who are on the former president’s growing list of potential running mates have been asked whether they would have acted as then-Vice President Mike Pence did in certifying the 2020 results despite Trump’s pressuring him to reject the outcome...

    Unfortunately for Trump, Kamala Harris will be overseeing that bit of the process this time round.
    Yes and no. The VP has very little power to certify votes or not. They might be able to sway the debate a little but it's the votes of senators and congressmen and -women that are the only things that ultimately count. Trump seems to have a blind spot, possibly because he can't comprehend a situation where the person in the big chair isn't 'in charge'.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,814

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338

    Shall we head back to the thread when this broke and have a look at the comments/advice/betting advice contained therein ?
    The Hur report did a certain amount of damage which can't be undone. And it's pretty clear he knew what he was doing.
    Litigating it won't help Biden, so treating it with mild ridicule, as above, is probably his best option.

    What's also pretty clear is that Biden is not gaga - but that doesn't mean his age isn't an issue.
    Four more years is a big ask.

    But fair to say our super-predictor flint knapper didn't have one of his best days.
    My parents are a similar age. I'd probably back them to get a name wrong at least 1 time in 10 at evens, but back them at 1.01 to be sane enough to make major decisions on a rational basis. It is so far from unusual to get names wrong or slow down speech mid sentence that the attempts to show he is gaga will only convince those who thought he was more gaga than Trump in 2020, of which there are sadly plenty including a few on here.

    At the moment the polling includes people who are hoping it wont be Biden v Trump and their views will create a significant distortion. Once it becomes clear to all it is Biden v Trump then the polls shall start to be a decent predictor of the real result (which may be different to the eventual Supreme Court results).
    It's not the Supreme Court that really matters here if it's close; it's who controls Congress and the state counting processes.
    It should be. However the SC have shown they are willing to take up the most spurious of political cases now.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    kjh said:

    And almost as exciting as a trip to Columbia I have had my first ever visit to a Greggs at Liverpool Street station as I make my way to Southwold to collect the car we abandoned there when I had to drive up to collect my wife last week after she broke her wrist. How the other half live eh.

    Oh dear, commiserations to your wife. I broke my wrist last November, I was recommended to have surgery, though I was told that I could opt for non-surgical "fixation" which avoids an operation but means a longer period in plaster. I opted for surgery and I've been glad I did - I had the plaster off two weeks after the op and could immediately use the wrist for light activity, gradually increasing the amount of weight I could put on it until now, 12 weeks after the op, flexibility and strength is more or less as it was before. So to anyone in a similar position I would recommend taking the surgical route.
    Also commiserations.

    I'm interested - I thought that one could normally drive with a fractured or broken wrist.

    But I've never broken one, and have a gearbox which is automatic.
    Sister in law broke her arm and hip, they did non - surgical fixation rather than replace elbow joint as "out of stock", many months later her arm is useless. Hip does not seem to be much better as he can hardly walk her length either.
    She should push for replacement, though I guess there would be a long wait if she isn't classed as an emergency.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens have unequivocally condemned Frank Hester's remarks.
    Have Reform said anything yet?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    At Cheltenham.

    No tips (apart from don't back the horses) but I now at least do know what's up with Kate.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.

    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.
    I think psychological studies have shown exactly that. Men are more prone to resorting to violence rather than other mechanisms, likely for evolutionary reasons, and this includes against themselves.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited March 12
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Kategate is notable because the RF are being mercilessly mocked. The memes just won't stop coming on my socials. The feels like a new and deleterious development for the institution.

    I wonder if it is because people are feeling they can't spot any difference between the RF and Love Island/BigBrother/Eat Wallaby Genitals In the Jungle. At least how the RF is presented in the media.

    It might be relevant that rather a lot of right wing pols and/or their family members have been included in the above TV shows, plus Mr Galloway (up to you whether he self defines as right wing pol/cat/whatever). As, indeed, has a rellie of the Duchess of Rothesay very recently. Her uncle?

    I'm old enough to remember the shock and tut-tutting when the younger Royals took part in a reality TV show, back around 1970 or so. But it was only of the level of It's a Knockout/Jeux sans Frontieres. About as toxic as a primary school sports day.

    (That is quite separate from the 1987 disaster - but one could argue that the 1987 event was a step towards today.
    https://www.sky.com/watch/title/programme/5dff823b-6bf0-391b-86da-a7bce718f7a2
    There's a challenging prank.

    Introduce a lake in I'm a Celebrity full of those Brazilian Candiru penis-fish, and tell the male celebrities DO NOT PEE IN THE LAKE.

    A test of male restraint, with possible consequences for failure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,622

    NEW THREAD

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    malcolmg said:

    Heavy going confirmed. Slowest opening race this century.

    Immediate thought - Lossiemouth up in trip on heavy. Love Envoi would prefer the longer distance in rematch anyway. And is there an opening here for Marie’s Rock too? Good odds on those two if you want to oppose Lossie 😯

    Too late I have done Lossiemouth
    So have I

    I was married there in 1964 !!!
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited March 12

    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.
    The standard description of the position is that men are much more (~2-4x) likely to top themselves, whereas women are much more (~3x) likely to attempt to.

    https://journals.lww.com/indianjpsychiatry/fulltext/2015/57002/suicide_in_women.8.aspx

    https://www.verywellmind.com/gender-differences-in-suicide-methods-1067508
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189

    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.
    Those are going to be among the reasons, but probably in places like the UK, 'less likely to have a support network' , and 'less likely to seek help' are probably going to be the biggest factors, aren't they? Both of which do make life harder
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.
    I don't think suicides are typically done out of violence and aggression. But again, very interesting the logic here. In discussions of women's lower pay or female poverty, we never say maybe it's because they are more reckless/illogical with their financial choices. Lower male outcomes are often blamed on men. Lower female outcomes are also blamed on men.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    First handicap now. My Gran was good at these. What do I know? It’s three miles, heavy, and some are carrying more weight than others. Big field. Bet against the weight?

    I’m happy with Chianti Classico, a warrior of a horse.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Donkeys said:

    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.
    The standard description of the position is that men are much more (~2-4x) likely to top themselves, whereas women are much more (~3x) likely to attempt to.

    https://journals.lww.com/indianjpsychiatry/fulltext/2015/57002/suicide_in_women.8.aspx
    Which means these women are just crying for help, whereas these men feel their lives are so hopeless that they don't think that help is possible.

    Also, we are skirting the life expectancy point. Men actually get less of life, the most valuable thing in my book.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of AI, it is now, apparently, coming for musicians


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/now-ai-is-coming-for-musicians/


    Incidentally there is definitely “AI” manipulation in the royal image. Absolute hallmarks. Also I am pretty convinced the Mirror photo Ed is correct: the AI took the Vogue cover shot of Kate’s face and reworked it into this composite. Quite a desperate move, as the Vogue photo is years old

    Failed cosmetic surgery?
    I do hope not. The pressure to stay youthful is quite intense in the public eye.
    What kind of cosmetic surgery needs weeks in hospital?

    I guess it is possible she had some cosmetic surgery done even as she had other surgery. Maybe. I dunno

    Poor Kate. It all feels very ominous
    Conversely, what kind of "abdominal" surgery causes you to desperately hide your face from the adoring monarchist faithful for weeks?
    Also 4 months to recover , must hav ebeen a big operation to say the least
    As I said yesterday my wife who was the same age (42) and we had 3 children took virtually that time to recover from her full hysterectomy
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now that the transcripts have been published, it seems that the Hur report was someone disingenuous in the picture it painted of Biden's mental capacity.

    President Biden when Republican counsel Hur showed him years-old photographs: “You can tell it's old. I have my arm around Lindsey Graham.”
    https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1767539312134910338

    Shall we head back to the thread when this broke and have a look at the comments/advice/betting advice contained therein ?
    The Hur report did a certain amount of damage which can't be undone. And it's pretty clear he knew what he was doing.
    Litigating it won't help Biden, so treating it with mild ridicule, as above, is probably his best option.

    What's also pretty clear is that Biden is not gaga - but that doesn't mean his age isn't an issue.
    Four more years is a big ask.

    But fair to say our super-predictor flint knapper didn't have one of his best days.
    My parents are a similar age. I'd probably back them to get a name wrong at least 1 time in 10 at evens, but back them at 1.01 to be sane enough to make major decisions on a rational basis. It is so far from unusual to get names wrong or slow down speech mid sentence that the attempts to show he is gaga will only convince those who thought he was more gaga than Trump in 2020, of which there are sadly plenty including a few on here.

    At the moment the polling includes people who are hoping it wont be Biden v Trump and their views will create a significant distortion. Once it becomes clear to all it is Biden v Trump then the polls shall start to be a decent predictor of the real result (which may be different to the eventual Supreme Court results).
    It's not the Supreme Court that really matters here if it's close; it's who controls Congress and the state counting processes.
    It should be. However the SC have shown they are willing to take up the most spurious of political cases now.
    The Supreme Court has a long history of taking up spurious cases. Nonetheless, while the SCOTUS can interfere in some aspects of the process, the election is decided in the vote count on Jan 6 - and Congress has absolute authority under the constitution to count the votes as it sees fit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,559
    TimS said:

    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.

    WillG said:

    Tres said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, quite agree. It's similar to the way the media reporting implies violence against women is higher than violence against men, when the reverse is true. Or the report, some time ago now, into groping and the like against MPs' staff was worse against male employees.

    Cyclefree, much as I love her input to this forum, goes big on the number of women killed by men each year, but fails to mention the fair higher number of men killed by men.
    won't someone think about the men, sad tear emoji
    There was a cringe moment in a discussion on TV, IIRC, where a feminist of note started laughing when the suicide stats for men vs women was mentioned.
    I think its a result of the endless pressure to address fairness for women over the years. I was part of an Athena-Swan committee for my department at work (the joy!). We were talking with the Universities Diversity Officer (a black woman) about admissions to Pharmacy and I made the point that the cohort was overwhelmingly female (80% ish at the time) and shouldn't we be challenging this, in the same way that Physics gets challenged in the other direction.

    Received very short shift. E and D was only a one way street back then (about 10 years ago).
    I am always struck by the fact men (a) live shorter lives and (b) are more likely to kill themselves because their lives are such a struggle. Can you imagine how much coverage it would get if those were higher for women?
    That a bit of an assumption in part (b). It could well be that men kill themselves more frequently than women do because they are simply more violent and reckless, to themselves as well as to others, rather than because their lives are more of a struggle.
    I think psychological studies have shown exactly that. Men are more prone to resorting to violence rather than other mechanisms, likely for evolutionary reasons, and this includes against themselves.
    Yet that goes against what was said below, that women are more likely to attempt suicide.

    Having known a couple of people who have committed suicide, I *really* don't like the suggestion that it was because they were violent or reckless. Depression (in both cases) is a heck of a lot more complex than that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Heavy going confirmed. Slowest opening race this century.

    Immediate thought - Lossiemouth up in trip on heavy. Love Envoi would prefer the longer distance in rematch anyway. And is there an opening here for Marie’s Rock too? Good odds on those two if you want to oppose Lossie 😯

    Too late I have done Lossiemouth

    malcolmg said:

    Heavy going confirmed. Slowest opening race this century.

    Immediate thought - Lossiemouth up in trip on heavy. Love Envoi would prefer the longer distance in rematch anyway. And is there an opening here for Marie’s Rock too? Good odds on those two if you want to oppose Lossie 😯

    Too late I have done Lossiemouth
    Me too.

    She’s the new superstar, she’ll do this.

    Probably.
    I got a trixie with Mullins so come out ahead after Nicholls horse got drubbed
This discussion has been closed.