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Former Labour councillor defects to Reform – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,953

    Boeing whistleblower found dead.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68534703

    Did he fall out of a 737 window?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,953
    edited March 12

    My guess is a member of staff did the photochopping, and Kate is taking the blame.

    That would certainly be a change of MO for The Firm.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/12/uk/prince-charles-aide-michael-fawcett-intl-gbr/index.html

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited March 12

    Ghedebrav said:

    Up to nine MPs ha.

    We have heard the before, with Douglass 'What Are Tides' Carswell and Mark 'Reckless' Reckless.

    I'll believe it when I see it. I guess it's a different way to announce your retirement.

    I think he has at least some chance of hanging on as the vote in Ashfield will be very divided between him, the Ashfield Independent, his Conservative replacement, and Labour. So it wouldn't be terribly shocking if one of them got in on under 30% of the vote. Would be interested to see a market - I'd probably back Labour to get it.
    For Corbyn's Labour, 2019 was disasterous yet the Labour candidate still got 24%, standing against Anderson only a year after he had defected to the Conservatives, and also against Zadrozny and a Brexit Party candidate. Standing for a second time against Anderson and Zadrozny but in far more favourable national circumstances, it is hard to see a Labour candidate getting less than 35%, which would still be 30% less than Geoff Hoon achieved in 1997. If a Conservative candidate and Zadrozny both achieved 15%, that would be enough to win.
    It's difficult to draw conclusions.

    At the time of the 2017 election and into 2018 Zadrozny was still being 'kept under investigation' by the Nottinghamshire Police for 'child sex' type allegations that miraculously emerged a few weeks before the 2015 Election when Ashfield Labour were terrified he could win - forcing him to stand down as the Lib Dem candidate in 2015, and the AI candidate to be "who?" in 2017.

    The Notts Police collapsed their case at the door of the Court in late 2017.

    AIs today still suspect machinations in Ashfield Labour, and imo on circumstantial it looks credible. That imo is part of @NickPalmer 's 'nest of vipers' in Ashfield politics, hopefully now slipping into the past - perhaps with Zadrozny himself too if he has a bad outcome in his 2025 Crown Court trial.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    Donkeys said:

    There's a pattern too because Prince Andrew isn't wearing his wedding band in that other famous photo showing a royal hand on a waist, the one that according to Ghislaine Mandy Rice-Maxwell was faked.

    Seriously though...a Tory MP switches to the opposition benches and most of the news is about some royal bint amending a picture.

    My guess is a member of staff did the photochopping, and Kate is taking the blame.

    One doesn't take the blame for staff!
    They do if it fits the narrative.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723

    Scott_xP said:

    @sam_lister_

    Excl: Lee Anderson has been kicked out of the Carlton Club after defecting to Reform

    I stayed there in my leftist youth in the 60s - my father was a member of the Junior Carlton, which allowed apolitical members like him, and it was being refurbished when we visited London (we were living abroad at the time), so they put us up in the Carlton. It was very pleasant, and nobody turned a hair when I sat in one of their deep armchairs perusing the Morning Star.
    The club bought all the national dailies, though, right?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    MattW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Up to nine MPs ha.

    We have heard the before, with Douglass 'What Are Tides' Carswell and Mark 'Reckless' Reckless.

    I'll believe it when I see it. I guess it's a different way to announce your retirement.

    I think he has at least some chance of hanging on as the vote in Ashfield will be very divided between him, the Ashfield Independent, his Conservative replacement, and Labour. So it wouldn't be terribly shocking if one of them got in on under 30% of the vote. Would be interested to see a market - I'd probably back Labour to get it.
    For Corbyn's Labour, 2019 was disasterous yet the Labour candidate still got 24%, standing against Anderson only a year after he had defected to the Conservatives, and also against Zadrozny and a Brexit Party candidate. Standing for a second time against Anderson and Zadrozny but in far more favourable national circumstances, it is hard to see a Labour candidate getting less than 35%, which would still be 30% less than Geoff Hoon achieved in 1997. If a Conservative candidate and Zadrozny both achieved 15%, that would be enough to win.
    It's difficult to draw conclusions.

    At the time of the 2017 election and into 2018 Zadrozny was still being 'kept under investigation' by the Nottinghamshire Police for 'child sex' type allegations that miraculously emerged a few weeks before the 2015 Election when Ashfield Labour were terrified he could win - forcing him to stand down as the Lib Dem candidate in 2015, and the AI candidate to be "who?" in 2017.

    The Notts Police collapsed their case at the door of the Court in late 2017.

    AIs today still suspect machinations in Ashfield Labour, and imo on circumstantial it looks credible. That imo is part of @NickPalmer 's 'nest of vipers' in Ashfield politics, hopefully now slipping into the past - perhaps with Zadrozny himself too if he has a bad outcome in his 2025 Crown Court trial.
    Correction: the case against Zadrozny was 'no evidence offered' in autumn 2017, not 2018.
    https://www.chad.co.uk/news/ashfield-councillor-acquitted-of-child-sex-allegationsagainst-a-teen-boy-vows-to-take-notts-police-to-court-1072161
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited March 12
    HYUFD said:

    Though college educated whites shifting further to the Democrats on the same polling
    What date was the Southern Democratic -> Republican shift in the 20C for the 'still pining for segregation' lobby?

    Was that from roughly 1920s to the Barry Goldwater for President era (ie 1964)?

    (Perhaps I need to go back and read some more Alistair Cooke from that time.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Though college educated whites shifting further to the Democrats on the same polling
    What date was the Southern Democratic -> Republican shift in the 20C for the 'still pining for segregation' lobby?

    Was that from roughly 1920s to the Barry Goldwater for President era (ie 1964)?

    (Perhaps I need to go back and read some more Alistair Cooke from that time.)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

    I'd go for somewhere in the 1960s. In the 1960 presidential election it was underway, and by the 1968 election it was largely done.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    Anyhoo, here's KCIII's Commonwealth Day speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdGf4IHR2kU
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    To Mompos, my friends. In the end, to Mompos
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    Scott_xP said:

    @sam_lister_

    Excl: Lee Anderson has been kicked out of the Carlton Club after defecting to Reform

    I've been kicked out of the Carlton Club. It's not all that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    Leon said:

    To Mompos, my friends. In the end, to Mompos

    Which Tory backbencher is "Mompos"?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    Rishi Sunk Sinking Ever Lower:

    'We need more gas-fired power stations, to stop us being dependent on Russia'.

    Er ....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68538951
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,872

    The Chancellor's optimism knows no bounds.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    viewcode said:
    Truly terrible travel writing, there
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Or Santa Marta, amigos, or Santa Marta
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    MattW said:

    Rishi Sunk Sinking Ever Lower:

    'We need more gas-fired power stations, to stop us being dependent on Russia'.

    Er ....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68538951

    I'm a big fan of gas power generation (cheap, flexible, etc.). But there's no denying that any form of power generation that is dependent on the import of energy from abroad is going to be inherently volatile, and leave your economy open to... disruption...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    @SeaShantyIrish2 , is the “Bucks County Beacon” a reliable publication ?
    The story appears to be well sourced.

    Shocking Online Manifesto Reveals Project 2025’s Link To A Coordinated ‘Christian Nationalism Project’
    “The Statement on Christian Nationalism” seeks to implement a Scripture-based system of government whereby Christ-ordained “civil magistrates” exercise authority over the American public.
    https://buckscountybeacon.com/2024/03/shocking-online-manifesto-reveals-project-2025s-link-to-a-coordinated-christian-nationalism-project/

    Um, this is not a surprise surely. Before I abandoned longer more researched articles for quick-and-dirty I considered writing on ideas of our time: cliodynamics (mathematical modelling of history), transhumanism (extension of the political sphere into the body), solarpunk (society restructured around Green principles), National Conservatism etc, that will affect politics in the 2020/30s. One of them was Christian Nationalism. I gave up when the time-to-article time stretched into years, but it's been in the background for some years now, humming away as it slouches towards Bethlehem.
    I highly recommend the Republican Party not to announce this in Nevada ahead of the election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited March 12
    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Though college educated whites shifting further to the Democrats on the same polling
    What date was the Southern Democratic -> Republican shift in the 20C for the 'still pining for segregation' lobby?

    Was that from roughly 1920s to the Barry Goldwater for President era (ie 1964)?

    (Perhaps I need to go back and read some more Alistair Cooke from that time.)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

    I'd go for somewhere in the 1960s. In the 1960 presidential election it was underway, and by the 1968 election it was largely done.
    LBJ pushing through civil rights legislation was the positive side of the coin.
    The 'Southern strategy' was the GOP offering the racists a new home in response.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Lost in the mist of what’s really going on with Kate, is how pathetically poor Kensington Palace comms has shown itself to be over the last couple of months, in stark contrast to Buck House.

    Or rather should I say, how weak it is in standing up to the whims of their principals. Seems to me the future WRV has the same belligerent I-know-best streak as his brother. It’s the only reasonable explanation for the last few months.

    Add to that his unwise intrusion into the highly politicised Gaza conflict, remedied with a visit to an Auschwitz survivor a few days later. But now we have this epic spectacle of pr mismanagement.

    This lad is gonna crash the monarchy. And sadly if rumours are to be believed, he’ll be at the wheel to do so pretty soon.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,370


    The Chancellor's optimism knows no bounds.

    I’m sure labour will revive this opportunity for investors to make little or no return.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,370
    Labour crying crocodile tears over the comments a Tory donor made about Diane Abbott who is still suspended as a labour MP

    From her wiki page. Perhaps labour needs to examine its own prejudice as well..

    In September 2023, Abbott, still suspended, said that she had realised that "As a Black woman, I will not get a fair hearing from this Labour leadership".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Taz said:


    The Chancellor's optimism knows no bounds.

    I’m sure labour will revive this opportunity for investors to make little or no return.
    So it’s a dead duck already.

    Top work, Hunt!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    MattW said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Up to nine MPs ha.

    We have heard the before, with Douglass 'What Are Tides' Carswell and Mark 'Reckless' Reckless.

    I'll believe it when I see it. I guess it's a different way to announce your retirement.

    I think he has at least some chance of hanging on as the vote in Ashfield will be very divided between him, the Ashfield Independent, his Conservative replacement, and Labour. So it wouldn't be terribly shocking if one of them got in on under 30% of the vote. Would be interested to see a market - I'd probably back Labour to get it.
    For Corbyn's Labour, 2019 was disasterous yet the Labour candidate still got 24%, standing against Anderson only a year after he had defected to the Conservatives, and also against Zadrozny and a Brexit Party candidate. Standing for a second time against Anderson and Zadrozny but in far more favourable national circumstances, it is hard to see a Labour candidate getting less than 35%, which would still be 30% less than Geoff Hoon achieved in 1997. If a Conservative candidate and Zadrozny both achieved 15%, that would be enough to win.
    It's difficult to draw conclusions.

    At the time of the 2017 election and into 2018 Zadrozny was still being 'kept under investigation' by the Nottinghamshire Police for 'child sex' type allegations that miraculously emerged a few weeks before the 2015 Election when Ashfield Labour were terrified he could win - forcing him to stand down as the Lib Dem candidate in 2015, and the AI candidate to be "who?" in 2017.

    The Notts Police collapsed their case at the door of the Court in late 2017.

    AIs today still suspect machinations in Ashfield Labour, and imo on circumstantial it looks credible. That imo is part of @NickPalmer 's 'nest of vipers' in Ashfield politics, hopefully now slipping into the past - perhaps with Zadrozny himself too if he has a bad outcome in his 2025 Crown Court trial.
    Ashfield Labour are the lowest of the low. We can only hope that, whoever wins there next time, it isn’t them.
This discussion has been closed.