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This is not the platform to launch a May election – politicalbetting.com

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jimsciutto

    Breaking: Donald Trump has posted a bond of nearly $92 million in E. Jean Carroll defamation case. The posted bond is exactly $91,630,000.00, which includes a district’s courts common practice of requiring a bond of 110% of the judgement.

    Insurance company Chubb underwrote the $91.63 million bond for Donald Trump, which the former president signed on Tuesday, March 5.

    Under the terms of the bond, Chubb will only secure the appeal of the $83.3 million judgment, not any future appeals.

    I thought it was 20%, but let's not quibble over trifles.

    Good for E Jean Carroll. (I keep wanting to call her Eugene when I hear it read out).

    I think he has 2 Appeal stages:

    Appellate Divisions of the Supreme Court, and the Court of Appeals.

    (Obviously since it is NY, the names are the wrong way around.)

    So Mr Trump has a couple of weeks to liberate another $600 million or so.
    If he is successfully getting insurance companies to post the bonds, then surely he does not need to "liberate" the funds?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391

    Scott_xP said:

    @jimsciutto

    Breaking: Donald Trump has posted a bond of nearly $92 million in E. Jean Carroll defamation case. The posted bond is exactly $91,630,000.00, which includes a district’s courts common practice of requiring a bond of 110% of the judgement.

    Insurance company Chubb underwrote the $91.63 million bond for Donald Trump, which the former president signed on Tuesday, March 5.

    Under the terms of the bond, Chubb will only secure the appeal of the $83.3 million judgment, not any future appeals.

    Did Chubb deliver it by check?
    A Chubb-y Check-er, in fact.

    I thang yew.

    :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Yes short of a dramatic narrowing of the polls an autumn general election it is
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,352
    The only reason for Sunak to go in May is that he is frit, more frit of his own backbenchers than of the judgement of the electorate at large.

    That may well be true, but he'd have at least been hoping for the slightest ray of light in the polling to provide cover for going in May and there is none. I've been fond of the theory, but I think it's a no now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Many sentenced to death in Pakistan for posting WhatsApp videos and messages disrespectful of the Prophet Muhammad

    "Pakistan blasphemy: Student sentenced to death over Whatsapp messages - BBC News" https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68511557
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,452
    TimS said:

    WHY does Mad Vlad keep on deluging PB with his lame-ass Putin-bots?

    I mean, we've got MORE than enough active PB Putinists on this board already.

    We should perhaps be asking whether Putin was behind the operation to bring down his nemesis Boris Johnson. Were any anti-Boris posters during that era on the Kremlin payroll?
    Oh FFS!

    Johnson was the architect of his own demise.

    Putin might like to claim he had a hand in Johnson's defenestration, but unless he was at the Downing Street parties or encouraging Johnson to save Patterson and Pincher, he can claim Jack S**t!
    The rewriting of history also I notice focuses on partygate but conveniently ignores the sleaze that Johnson was protecting. It was the behaviour over Pincher that brought him down after he'd been forgiven multiple times by his own party for other misdemeanours.

    It's not as if once partygate had blown over there wouldn't have been other nonsense. The circus would have continued. There would have been more Peppa Pig performances, barefaced lies about topics like borders in the Irish sea and no doubt more Jennifer Arcuri style scandals.

    He was a wrongun. Not remotely as bad as Trump but the GOP's gradual degradation at the latter's hands points towards the risks to the Tories' moral fibre if they'd kept him on.
    Besides, if you're going to mention "he was on fifty percent", it's worth noting that Conservative ratings had already reached thirty percent (and falling) under Boris. Apart from the vaccine bounce, it was a steady decline of a percent or so per month.

    Most of the fall in Conservative rating happened under Boris, and even if Pinchergate and being expelled from Parliament for lying hadn't happened, there's no particular reason to think that it wouldn't have continued under him.

    Besides, the reason that Truss and Sunak were in pole position to follow Johnson was because he put them there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Pro_Rata said:

    The only reason for Sunak to go in May is that he is frit, more frit of his own backbenchers than of the judgement of the electorate at large.

    That may well be true, but he'd have at least been hoping for the slightest ray of light in the polling to provide cover for going in May and there is none. I've been fond of the theory, but I think it's a no now.

    A crying shame if he bottles it now.

    But, I fear you are right, and he will.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    They are great once you get used to them. Everywhere around me is now 20mph, which is like zen for cars. Driving is more pleasant in a residential area as people have more time to anticipate bottlenecks. I’m unsurprised they have proven popular.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,706
    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,452
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,706
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    It won’t even do that at the General Election.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Paul Ryan Calls Fucker Carlson a Putinist Propagandist (I paraphrase)

    MSNBC - Turns out America also has coin-unlock shopping carts, too
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiX2u9m3QZI
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    Painting of Balfour sprayed and slashed at Trinity college, Cambridge by pro Palestine activists

    "Pro-Palestine activists spray and slash University of Cambridge's historic painting of British statesman Lord Balfour who paved the way for a Jewish state in the Middle East | Daily Mail Online" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13174015/Headline-goes-here.html
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    I swear down I haven’t heard the Ulex mentioned for months, and I live in the far flung suburbs
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    They are absolutely screwed. I’d forgotten how bad it was for them pre Boris… and it’s heading that way post Boris too
    So they struggled before Boris ("BB") and are struggling after Boris ("AB"). Hmm. It would appear that the sweet spot is ... well do we need to say it?
    Boris in no small way *caused* that situation in 2019.
    He did. And then got himself elected as Leader, then set up the whole People v Parliament thing, then won that landslide. It was, and please picture my teeth gritting like mad here, a tour de force of political opportunism. It worked a dream. And he'll be happy as larry now too, with all of this 'Oh if only' talk. He got what he wanted.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418

    See what I mean?

    Out of interest, did you vote for the guy who mocked his opponent for saying that Russia was the biggest threat facing America?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
    Before that video I got an advert from Canada aimed at recruiting British doctors and nurses.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    edited March 8

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    And speaking of which, NO₂ levels in London have fallen 49% since 2016.

    Not all of that is down to ULEZ, of course - there are many causes of the move away from diesel engines, but the fall in England as a whole was only 35%, which strongly suggests that ULEZ is having the intended effect.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/08/sadiq-khan-hails-remarkable-progress-in-improving-london-air-quality
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    I swear down I haven’t heard the Ulex mentioned for months, and I live in the far flung suburbs
    At moment am getting daily dose of anti-ULEZ propaganda on my YouTube feed. My guess is that this is mix of anti-ULEZers and Tory hackery.

    Not a criticism - there IS an election in May in Greater Great Wen.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,670
    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)

    Aaron Bell would make a good Chancellor. :)
    And can I just add that Michael Fabricant would also be brilliant.

    (As he deleted his sharing of a tweet "depicting London mayor Sadiq Khan ... in a sex act with a pig", that can in no way be held against him.)
    Cometh the hour!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited March 8

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    I think I declare this argument won, as has been obvious for some time.

    Except, probably, in Ashfield.

    And maybe on Hammersmith Bridge.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,706

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    I swear down I haven’t heard the Ulex mentioned for months, and I live in the far flung suburbs
    Something came up on a Facebook page the other day, but AFAIR no-one Liked it, or followed it up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,614
    edited March 8
    Good evening

    As far as I see it it is Starmer and Labour supporters who are trying to bounce Sunak into an election in May that he has not remotely suggested

    He has consistently referred to later in the year and the current evidence in the polls is that it would be a landslide Labour win if it was in May

    I really do not see how it could be much worse in October November, but irrespective of when it is, the key to Starmer's majority is just how well Reform performs in a GE which is electing a government for 5 years and is not a protest vote

    However, it really doesn't matter when it is Starmer will win
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Politico.com - Britt’s kitchen SOTU rebuttal garners barbs from Trump allies, enemies alike

    Sen. Katie Britt’s response to the State of the Union has drawn its own response — including plenty of barbs across the political spectrum.

    The Alabama Republican is seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans and a potential future leader. But her speech, set at her home kitchen, was slammed among many allies of former President Donald Trump. . . .

    "She's a bright upcoming star," said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) with a smirk. "That's all I got."

    "At least she didn't drink water," quipped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who faced harsh criticism over his drink of the beverage during his own State of the Union response in 2013.

    A Britt spokesperson, Sean Ross, responded to the criticism: "Joe Biden angrily screamed for an hour and was roundly praised for a ‘fiery’ speech. Katie Britt passionately made the case on the need for a new direction and is being criticized by the liberal media. Color me surprised."

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/08/congress/gop-dems-britts-sotu-response-criticisms-00146024

    SSI - Could Katie Britt be the Bobby Jindal of 2024? Back in 2009, the then-Governor of Louisiana was also seen as a rising star in the GOP firmament . . . until HIS widely-ridiculed SOTU response . . . which proved the start of a downward trajectory to political oblivion.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391

    Politico.com - Britt’s kitchen SOTU rebuttal garners barbs from Trump allies, enemies alike

    Sen. Katie Britt’s response to the State of the Union has drawn its own response — including plenty of barbs across the political spectrum.

    The Alabama Republican is seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans and a potential future leader. But her speech, set at her home kitchen, was slammed among many allies of former President Donald Trump. . . .

    "She's a bright upcoming star," said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) with a smirk. "That's all I got."

    "At least she didn't drink water," quipped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who faced harsh criticism over his drink of the beverage during his own State of the Union response in 2013.

    A Britt spokesperson, Sean Ross, responded to the criticism: "Joe Biden angrily screamed for an hour and was roundly praised for a ‘fiery’ speech. Katie Britt passionately made the case on the need for a new direction and is being criticized by the liberal media. Color me surprised."

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/08/congress/gop-dems-britts-sotu-response-criticisms-00146024

    SSI - Could Katie Britt be the Bobby Jindal of 2024? Back in 2009, the then-Governor of Louisiana was also seen as a rising star in the GOP firmament . . . until HIS widely-ridiculed SOTU response . . . which proved the start of a downward trajectory to political oblivion.

    Bit in bold. It does seem like a thing in our modern age. David Cameron became favorite after one speech, Penny Mordaunt lost her place after her Con speech.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Washington Post (via Seattle Times) - How Taylor Swift gave Singapore’s economy a massive boost

    SSI - Part of insidious Taylor Swift / Joe Biden / George Soros / Red China Conspiracy?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Frankly, that whole screed is an indictment of its author; a purely transactional account that the Tories should lose less badly under a liar, cheat, bully, coward and rule-breaker than under a bit of an odd duffer; that MPs should put up with his behaviour, his abuse of patronage, his corruption of the entire system, just so Labour's majority is (probably) marginally less gargantuan. It's not as if Johnson's ratings were anything to write home about in 2019 and that was just when he was hiding in a fridge rather than partying while the country was in lockdown and the Queen mourned.

    Nor does it give any sense as to recovery. Having sold their morals and ethics so cheaply, from where do they then start to oppose Labour?
    It's a good example of its type in that it implies Trump/Johnson ARE men of principle, with a 'sophisticated' backnote that they clearly aren't and their gullible supporters are being conned.

    This is the default tone of the 'straining for respectability' strand of alt-right commentary. You see it all over Speccie/unHerdland.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,339
    edited March 8

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    I swear down I haven’t heard the Ulex mentioned for months, and I live in the far flung suburbs
    Something came up on a Facebook page the other day, but AFAIR no-one Liked it, or followed it up.
    Evening, OKC. There has in fact been a response to the LTN news

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/08/sadiq-khan-hails-remarkable-progress-in-improving-london-air-quality

    Edit: sorry, another report. But still.

    PS Of course, a LTN is really "the sort of traffic calming measure many, many Tory voters like to have in their 1970s and 1980s owner-occupier estates but is the spawn of the Corbynite-Green devil when it happens in someone else's estate so they can't tool past as if externalities don't exist closer than Delta Leonis III".

    Ah - @AlsoLei got there first, apologies.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    Politico.com - Britt’s kitchen SOTU rebuttal garners barbs from Trump allies, enemies alike

    Sen. Katie Britt’s response to the State of the Union has drawn its own response — including plenty of barbs across the political spectrum.

    The Alabama Republican is seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans and a potential future leader. But her speech, set at her home kitchen, was slammed among many allies of former President Donald Trump. . . .

    "She's a bright upcoming star," said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) with a smirk. "That's all I got."

    "At least she didn't drink water," quipped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who faced harsh criticism over his drink of the beverage during his own State of the Union response in 2013.

    A Britt spokesperson, Sean Ross, responded to the criticism: "Joe Biden angrily screamed for an hour and was roundly praised for a ‘fiery’ speech. Katie Britt passionately made the case on the need for a new direction and is being criticized by the liberal media. Color me surprised."

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/08/congress/gop-dems-britts-sotu-response-criticisms-00146024

    SSI - Could Katie Britt be the Bobby Jindal of 2024? Back in 2009, the then-Governor of Louisiana was also seen as a rising star in the GOP firmament . . . until HIS widely-ridiculed SOTU response . . . which proved the start of a downward trajectory to political oblivion.

    Bit in bold. It does seem like a thing in our modern age. David Cameron became favorite after one speech, Penny Mordaunt lost her place after her Con speech.

    One of the worst speech flops in quasi-recent US politics, was the egg that Bill Clinton of all people laid at the 1988 Democratic National Convention

    LA Times (June 22, 1988) - It Was the Speech That Ate Atlanta

    ATLANTA — “Please. Your time is up.”
    That was the message flashed across the TelePrompTer Wednesday night during the marathon speech by Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. The 41-year-old governor, given the publicity plum of the convention, turned his scheduled 15-minute nomination speech into a discourse of at least twice that length.

    “Give him the hook,” some delegates chanted. Reports from those inside the convention machinery said that the TelePrompTer was finally turned off, a last-ditch effort to turn off the oratory.

    “Nationally televised political suicide” was the consensus--doubly surprising since Clinton had presidential aspirations of his own this year and has been considered a real comer, a self-described “wandering minstrel of the Democratic Party.” . . .

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-07-22-vw-7609-story.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 8
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    Why do you label opposition to him as 'haters'?

    That's fanboi talk.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,339
    edited March 8

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    I swear down I haven’t heard the Ulex mentioned for months, and I live in the far flung suburbs
    Some nutter blew one up recently or cut it down and left it live, and the leccy shorted with the same effect -shrapnel on all the local cars and windows, very unhappy locals.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12836717/Mystery-ULEZ-camera-EXPLODES-street-cut-vigilantes-police-launch-probe.html
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    I swear down I haven’t heard the Ulex mentioned for months, and I live in the far flung suburbs
    Some nutter blew one up recently or cut it down and left it live, and the leccy shorted with the same effect -shrapnel on all the local cars and windows, very unhappy locals.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12836717/Mystery-ULEZ-camera-EXPLODES-street-cut-vigilantes-police-launch-probe.html
    Weird that Sunak didn't mention this bombing in his big speech to the nation last Friday, isn't it?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 689
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    If polled I would agree Johnson has 'lots of personality' - that's the point of his 'Boris' persona. I wouldn't read too much into the public thinking he is less boring than Starmer as that's self-evident. I wouldn't trust him to look after my dog, let alone the country, and would never vote for him under any circumstances.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Good evening

    As far as I see it it is Starmer and Labour supporters who are trying to bounce Sunak into an election in May that he has not remotely suggested

    He has consistently referred to later in the year and the current evidence in the polls is that it would be a landslide Labour win if it was in May

    I really do not see how it could be much worse in October November, but irrespective of when it is, the key to Starmer's majority is just how well Reform performs in a GE which is electing a government for 5 years and is not a protest vote

    However, it really doesn't matter when it is Starmer will win

    So you are saying Sunak will bottle it?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    And speaking of which, NO₂ levels in London have fallen 49% since 2016.

    Not all of that is down to ULEZ, of course - there are many causes of the move away from diesel engines, but the fall in England as a whole was only 35%, which strongly suggests that ULEZ is having the intended effect.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/08/sadiq-khan-hails-remarkable-progress-in-improving-london-air-quality
    Indeed. Where are these Londoners who want poorer air quality in our city? A rare and odd breed, even if they exist at all.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651

    Politico.com - Britt’s kitchen SOTU rebuttal garners barbs from Trump allies, enemies alike

    Sen. Katie Britt’s response to the State of the Union has drawn its own response — including plenty of barbs across the political spectrum.

    The Alabama Republican is seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans and a potential future leader. But her speech, set at her home kitchen, was slammed among many allies of former President Donald Trump. . . .

    "She's a bright upcoming star," said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) with a smirk. "That's all I got."

    "At least she didn't drink water," quipped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who faced harsh criticism over his drink of the beverage during his own State of the Union response in 2013.

    A Britt spokesperson, Sean Ross, responded to the criticism: "Joe Biden angrily screamed for an hour and was roundly praised for a ‘fiery’ speech. Katie Britt passionately made the case on the need for a new direction and is being criticized by the liberal media. Color me surprised."

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/08/congress/gop-dems-britts-sotu-response-criticisms-00146024

    SSI - Could Katie Britt be the Bobby Jindal of 2024? Back in 2009, the then-Governor of Louisiana was also seen as a rising star in the GOP firmament . . . until HIS widely-ridiculed SOTU response . . . which proved the start of a downward trajectory to political oblivion.

    Just watched it. Oh dear. It's like AI doing a crazy fascist Stepford wife!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    AlsoLei said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    I swear down I haven’t heard the Ulex mentioned for months, and I live in the far flung suburbs
    Some nutter blew one up recently or cut it down and left it live, and the leccy shorted with the same effect -shrapnel on all the local cars and windows, very unhappy locals.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12836717/Mystery-ULEZ-camera-EXPLODES-street-cut-vigilantes-police-launch-probe.html
    Weird that Sunak didn't mention this bombing in his big speech to the nation last Friday, isn't it?
    Like they say, one person's "domestic terrorist" is another's "freedom fighter".

    Multiply that by x10 for politicos.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Politico.com - Britt’s kitchen SOTU rebuttal garners barbs from Trump allies, enemies alike

    Sen. Katie Britt’s response to the State of the Union has drawn its own response — including plenty of barbs across the political spectrum.

    The Alabama Republican is seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans and a potential future leader. But her speech, set at her home kitchen, was slammed among many allies of former President Donald Trump. . . .

    "She's a bright upcoming star," said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) with a smirk. "That's all I got."

    "At least she didn't drink water," quipped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who faced harsh criticism over his drink of the beverage during his own State of the Union response in 2013.

    A Britt spokesperson, Sean Ross, responded to the criticism: "Joe Biden angrily screamed for an hour and was roundly praised for a ‘fiery’ speech. Katie Britt passionately made the case on the need for a new direction and is being criticized by the liberal media. Color me surprised."

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/08/congress/gop-dems-britts-sotu-response-criticisms-00146024

    SSI - Could Katie Britt be the Bobby Jindal of 2024? Back in 2009, the then-Governor of Louisiana was also seen as a rising star in the GOP firmament . . . until HIS widely-ridiculed SOTU response . . . which proved the start of a downward trajectory to political oblivion.

    Sean Ross exiled to ConservativeHome for using the trite cliche ‘colour me surprised’. Dear me. He’ll be taking about heavy lifting, and features not bugs next.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,614

    Good evening

    As far as I see it it is Starmer and Labour supporters who are trying to bounce Sunak into an election in May that he has not remotely suggested

    He has consistently referred to later in the year and the current evidence in the polls is that it would be a landslide Labour win if it was in May

    I really do not see how it could be much worse in October November, but irrespective of when it is, the key to Starmer's majority is just how well Reform performs in a GE which is electing a government for 5 years and is not a protest vote

    However, it really doesn't matter when it is Starmer will win

    So you are saying Sunak will bottle it?
    If he had said he was holding a May election then that would be valid, but as he has not and stated it will be in the Autumn on several occasions including yesteday then of course not and labour just desperately trying to make something out of nothing
  • PJHPJH Posts: 689

    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Do we need to recover the Kinnockism (iirc) "Immaculate Misconception" for Mr Sunak?

    Oooops.

    "An official study of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) ordered by Rishi Sunak amid efforts to stop them being built has instead concluded they are generally popular and effective, with the report initially buried, the Guardian has learned."
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-generally-popular-report-ordered-by-sunak-finds

    He’s fixated on what happened at Uxbridge.
    He should have remembered what happens in Uxbridge, stays in Uxbridge.
    Not just where it happened, but when it happened- shortly before ULEZ expansion went live. There are still people unhappy about ULEZ on the fringes of London, but not many, and a lot of them have had to add extra issues to keep their enthusiasm going.
    And speaking of which, NO₂ levels in London have fallen 49% since 2016.

    Not all of that is down to ULEZ, of course - there are many causes of the move away from diesel engines, but the fall in England as a whole was only 35%, which strongly suggests that ULEZ is having the intended effect.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/08/sadiq-khan-hails-remarkable-progress-in-improving-london-air-quality
    Indeed. Where are these Londoners who want poorer air quality in our city? A rare and odd breed, even if they exist at all.
    Exactly - the people who were personally affected most at the time have now mostly got a cleaner vehicle and everyone else has forgotten about it. I also haven't heard anyone mention it for months now. It will be a non-issue at the next GE.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 8
    PJH said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    If polled I would agree Johnson has 'lots of personality' - that's the point of his 'Boris' persona. I wouldn't read too much into the public thinking he is less boring than Starmer as that's self-evident. I wouldn't trust him to look after my dog, let alone the country, and would never vote for him under any circumstances.
    But not every voter is a ‘political overthinker, touched by genius’ like so many on PB. They’re not all immune to anything but indestructible logic. Many civvies are likely to be influenced to vote a certain way by a charismatic personality
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651

    Politico.com - Britt’s kitchen SOTU rebuttal garners barbs from Trump allies, enemies alike

    Sen. Katie Britt’s response to the State of the Union has drawn its own response — including plenty of barbs across the political spectrum.

    The Alabama Republican is seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans and a potential future leader. But her speech, set at her home kitchen, was slammed among many allies of former President Donald Trump. . . .

    "She's a bright upcoming star," said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) with a smirk. "That's all I got."

    "At least she didn't drink water," quipped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who faced harsh criticism over his drink of the beverage during his own State of the Union response in 2013.

    A Britt spokesperson, Sean Ross, responded to the criticism: "Joe Biden angrily screamed for an hour and was roundly praised for a ‘fiery’ speech. Katie Britt passionately made the case on the need for a new direction and is being criticized by the liberal media. Color me surprised."

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/08/congress/gop-dems-britts-sotu-response-criticisms-00146024

    SSI - Could Katie Britt be the Bobby Jindal of 2024? Back in 2009, the then-Governor of Louisiana was also seen as a rising star in the GOP firmament . . . until HIS widely-ridiculed SOTU response . . . which proved the start of a downward trajectory to political oblivion.

    Sean Ross exiled to ConservativeHome for using the trite cliche ‘colour me surprised’. Dear me. He’ll be taking about heavy lifting, and features not bugs next.
    I'll tell you what I haven't seen for ages - 'It's a view'.

    It's been so long that I reckon it can be rehabilitated as newly fresh and totally acceptable.

    Although 'I reckon' is doing the work of several Bulgarian clean-and-jerk Olympic gold medallists there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Wonder if Boris might fancy standing for a safe Tory seat in Maidenhead... ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    isam said:

    PJH said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    If polled I would agree Johnson has 'lots of personality' - that's the point of his 'Boris' persona. I wouldn't read too much into the public thinking he is less boring than Starmer as that's self-evident. I wouldn't trust him to look after my dog, let alone the country, and would never vote for him under any circumstances.
    But not every voter is a ‘political overthinker, touched by genius’ like so many on PB. They’re not all immune to anything but indestructible logic. Many civvies are likely to be influenced to vote a certain way by a charismatic personality
    They're more influenced yet by whether they feel richer this year than last.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    Looks like another Boeing boo-boo

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1766138389638664444
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    If Sunak wants his numbers to improve he would be wise to hide David Cameron. The contrast is striking.

    Cameron actually looks and sounds Prime Ministerial.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Roger said:

    If Sunak wants his numbers to improve he would be wise to hide David Cameron. The contrast is striking.

    Cameron actually looks and sounds Prime Ministerial.

    Nadine said a while ago the plan is to replace Sunak for Cameron in time for the election!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited March 8
    Half past six and time to go off topic !

    Has anyone on PB done this things called "micro-camping", which I ran across this week - never having heard the term before?

    It's a little like those small vans turned into campers seen in programmes by people such as George Clark, but usually done using more car-sized-but-upright vehicles such as Citroen Berlingo or Renault Kangoo, or mid-sized vans (or the car versions thereof) such as Ford Transit Connect.

    Accessories used might be an awning that is mounted ready to use on a roof-rack, a micro-portaloo, built in or take out cooking setup, and similar. Usually used individually, à deux or à trois.

    Here's an interestingly eccentric gent from North Notts (Youtube Channel: Nottinghamshire Madness) describing his setup:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi1D7R7qNXs

    There are some really strange devices available, such as a popup tent that lives on the roof rack and is carried in tandem with a collapsible ladder. *

    Intriguing. Of course most PBers will be in a **** hotel.

    *https://tentbox.com/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651
    isam said:

    PJH said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    If polled I would agree Johnson has 'lots of personality' - that's the point of his 'Boris' persona. I wouldn't read too much into the public thinking he is less boring than Starmer as that's self-evident. I wouldn't trust him to look after my dog, let alone the country, and would never vote for him under any circumstances.
    But not every voter is a ‘political overthinker, touched by genius’ like so many on PB. They’re not all immune to anything but indestructible logic. Many civvies are likely to be influenced to vote a certain way by a charismatic personality
    Hence why Charisma is important in a political leader. Indeed in many other walks of life too. The sweet spot is where it coincides with integrity, vision and competence. Boy that would be a package.

    Example? Not many, obviously. If there were many it wouldn't be what it is. Rare.

    I was going to offer up RFK - Snr not Jnr - but what about the Monroe episode? That was tawdry.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391
    Is this a real trend or an algorithm generated one? How often do aircraft undercarriage collapse, is the Boeing one noticeably greater than its past self or its competitors' present selves?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391
    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if Boris might fancy standing for a safe Tory seat in Maidenhead... ;)

    He knows the area. Henley is just up the road. You have to go thru Hurley Bottom to get to it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited March 8
    MattW said:

    Half past six and time to go off topic !

    Has anyone on PB done this things called "micro-camping", which I ran across this week - never having heard the term before?

    It's a little like those small vans turned into campers seen in programmes by people such as George Clark, but usually done using more car-sized-but-upright vehicles such as Citroen Berlingo or Renault Kangoo, or mid-sized vans (or the car versions thereof) such as Ford Transit Connect.

    Accessories used might be an awning that is mounted ready to use on a roof-rack, a micro-portaloo, built in or take out cooking setup, and similar. Usually used individually, à deux or à trois.

    Here's an interestingly eccentric gent from North Notts (Youtube Channel: Nottinghamshire Madness) describing his setup:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi1D7R7qNXs

    There are some really strange devices available, such as a popup tent that lives on the roof rack and is carried in tandem with a collapsible ladder. *

    Intriguing. Of course most PBers will be in a **** hotel.

    *https://tentbox.com/

    Or https://www.thule.com/en-gb/rooftop-tents-and-accessories/rooftop-tents

    eg Piccie:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Weren’t the mortgage rates Truss & Kwarteng’s doing?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,240
    I think this plane may have come off the runway, in which case probably not a manufacturing issue.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    edited March 8
    US says UFO sightings likely secret military tests
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68515515

    Plot twist: 1950s and 60s.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391
    kinabalu said:

    Politico.com - Britt’s kitchen SOTU rebuttal garners barbs from Trump allies, enemies alike

    Sen. Katie Britt’s response to the State of the Union has drawn its own response — including plenty of barbs across the political spectrum.

    The Alabama Republican is seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans and a potential future leader. But her speech, set at her home kitchen, was slammed among many allies of former President Donald Trump. . . .

    "She's a bright upcoming star," said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) with a smirk. "That's all I got."

    "At least she didn't drink water," quipped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who faced harsh criticism over his drink of the beverage during his own State of the Union response in 2013.

    A Britt spokesperson, Sean Ross, responded to the criticism: "Joe Biden angrily screamed for an hour and was roundly praised for a ‘fiery’ speech. Katie Britt passionately made the case on the need for a new direction and is being criticized by the liberal media. Color me surprised."

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/08/congress/gop-dems-britts-sotu-response-criticisms-00146024

    SSI - Could Katie Britt be the Bobby Jindal of 2024? Back in 2009, the then-Governor of Louisiana was also seen as a rising star in the GOP firmament . . . until HIS widely-ridiculed SOTU response . . . which proved the start of a downward trajectory to political oblivion.

    Just watched it. Oh dear. It's like AI doing a crazy fascist Stepford wife!
    You know those YouTube apology speeches which you know aren't really sincere, with vocal fry and intensity in the wrong bits? Well it was like that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Weren’t the mortgage rates Truss & Kwarteng’s doing?
    They went up a little more than would have been the case, but the fundamental issue that the developed world has had is that Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed energy prices up.

    This in turn meant inflation was higher.

    Which meant Central Banks raised interest rates (and therefore mortgage rates) in order to lower inflation.

    I can't think of a single developed world government that has survived this with their popularity intact.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,496

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    more anecdata - it's mostly people to hated him to start with and would never have voted for him
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    more anecdata - it's mostly people to hated him to start with and would never have voted for him
    My Dad voted enthusiastically for him and hates him now
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,339

    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    more anecdata - it's mostly people to hated him to start with and would never have voted for him
    My Dad voted enthusiastically for him and hates him now
    Even the PB village Tory doesn't talk about Mr Johnson's eviction being treasonous any more.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    Anyway, a light-hearted anecdote, if I may.

    There were two Ironman triathletes at the pool earlier. The partner of one was sitting in the little viewing area by the shallow end. One of the triathletes tapped his swimming cap, which was branded with a 70.3 (half Ironman) race, and said: "I did this on our honeymoon. I told my wife she could organise the wedding, and I'd organise the honeymoon. It just so happened that I chose a place there was an Ironman on, and I sent all my kit in advance."

    The woman in the viewing area gave the hardest scowl I've seen in many a year...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,472
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Half past six and time to go off topic !

    Has anyone on PB done this things called "micro-camping", which I ran across this week - never having heard the term before?

    It's a little like those small vans turned into campers seen in programmes by people such as George Clark, but usually done using more car-sized-but-upright vehicles such as Citroen Berlingo or Renault Kangoo, or mid-sized vans (or the car versions thereof) such as Ford Transit Connect.

    Accessories used might be an awning that is mounted ready to use on a roof-rack, a micro-portaloo, built in or take out cooking setup, and similar. Usually used individually, à deux or à trois.

    Here's an interestingly eccentric gent from North Notts (Youtube Channel: Nottinghamshire Madness) describing his setup:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi1D7R7qNXs

    There are some really strange devices available, such as a popup tent that lives on the roof rack and is carried in tandem with a collapsible ladder. *

    Intriguing. Of course most PBers will be in a **** hotel.

    *https://tentbox.com/

    Or https://www.thule.com/en-gb/rooftop-tents-and-accessories/rooftop-tents

    eg Piccie:
    I've read that modern cars are getting bigger, but that's ridiculous. It dwarfs the house.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,452
    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    more anecdata - it's mostly people to hated him to start with and would never have voted for him
    Disagree.

    My hunch is that a lot of people are impressed with Boris on first encounter- enough, say, to get him over the top in London in 2008. Because the good fairy gave him the Boris Charisma, which is very real.

    Unfortunately, the bad fairy made him an utter shit- see the aphorism that the world is divided into people Boris has betrayed and people he will betray in the future.

    So he keeps getting the jobs, girls and victories. But then he keeps losing them. Because charisma can get you the first date, but it doesn't work with living with someone for life.

    His approach to the Premiership was the same. Which is why he was turfed out. MPs had had enough of trying to defend him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,339

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Half past six and time to go off topic !

    Has anyone on PB done this things called "micro-camping", which I ran across this week - never having heard the term before?

    It's a little like those small vans turned into campers seen in programmes by people such as George Clark, but usually done using more car-sized-but-upright vehicles such as Citroen Berlingo or Renault Kangoo, or mid-sized vans (or the car versions thereof) such as Ford Transit Connect.

    Accessories used might be an awning that is mounted ready to use on a roof-rack, a micro-portaloo, built in or take out cooking setup, and similar. Usually used individually, à deux or à trois.

    Here's an interestingly eccentric gent from North Notts (Youtube Channel: Nottinghamshire Madness) describing his setup:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi1D7R7qNXs

    There are some really strange devices available, such as a popup tent that lives on the roof rack and is carried in tandem with a collapsible ladder. *

    Intriguing. Of course most PBers will be in a **** hotel.

    *https://tentbox.com/

    Or https://www.thule.com/en-gb/rooftop-tents-and-accessories/rooftop-tents

    eg Piccie:
    I've read that modern cars are getting bigger, but that's ridiculous. It dwarfs the house.
    And when someone steals the Landie?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,240
    edited March 8
    Johnson's big political achievement was harnessing Leave voters in the Red Wall to existing Tory supporters in the Blue Wall. Little remarked is Starmer repeating that trick now. I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour come from third place to win several seats in the Home Counties.

    As we are talking about low Tory support BB - before Boris- don't forget it was he that sabotaged the government he was part of.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,000
    Scott_xP said:

    @jimsciutto

    Breaking: Donald Trump has posted a bond of nearly $92 million in E. Jean Carroll defamation case. The posted bond is exactly $91,630,000.00, which includes a district’s courts common practice of requiring a bond of 110% of the judgement.

    Insurance company Chubb underwrote the $91.63 million bond for Donald Trump, which the former president signed on Tuesday, March 5.

    Under the terms of the bond, Chubb will only secure the appeal of the $83.3 million judgment, not any future appeals.

    That’s alarming.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited March 8

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by a landslide in the 2019 general election! 😂

    Oh, and

    B

    R

    E

    X

    I

    T
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    If Sunak wants his numbers to improve he would be wise to hide David Cameron. The contrast is striking.

    Cameron actually looks and sounds Prime Ministerial.

    Nadine said a while ago the plan is to replace Sunak for Cameron in time for the election!
    Wise move. An adult in the room at last. He was the first UK leader to talk intelligently about Gaza without worrying what Eylon Levy might think.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651

    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    more anecdata - it's mostly people to hated him to start with and would never have voted for him
    Disagree.

    My hunch is that a lot of people are impressed with Boris on first encounter- enough, say, to get him over the top in London in 2008. Because the good fairy gave him the Boris Charisma, which is very real.

    Unfortunately, the bad fairy made him an utter shit- see the aphorism that the world is divided into people Boris has betrayed and people he will betray in the future.

    So he keeps getting the jobs, girls and victories. But then he keeps losing them. Because charisma can get you the first date, but it doesn't work with living with someone for life.

    His approach to the Premiership was the same. Which is why he was turfed out. MPs had had enough of trying to defend him.
    No-one better than you at analogies. Another perfect one.

    But snowing aside, yes I can (at once remove) vouch for the 'Boris' star power. My brother is senior NHS and hosted him for a hospital visit. My brother is also Labour through and through, a BJ 'hater' even, to go all Isam, yet he was blown away. Said he lit up the room.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by a landslide in the 2019 general election! 😂

    Oh, and

    B

    R

    E

    X

    I

    T
    You have it in 6 lines. I think he's he most malevolent politician the UK has had, Certainly in living memory.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
    Was it Churchill who said the MPs on the other side of the chamber are the opposition and the MP's behind you are your enemys?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    Politico.com - Britt’s kitchen SOTU rebuttal garners barbs from Trump allies, enemies alike

    Sen. Katie Britt’s response to the State of the Union has drawn its own response — including plenty of barbs across the political spectrum.

    The Alabama Republican is seen as a rising star among Senate Republicans and a potential future leader. But her speech, set at her home kitchen, was slammed among many allies of former President Donald Trump. . . .

    "She's a bright upcoming star," said Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) with a smirk. "That's all I got."

    "At least she didn't drink water," quipped Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who faced harsh criticism over his drink of the beverage during his own State of the Union response in 2013.

    A Britt spokesperson, Sean Ross, responded to the criticism: "Joe Biden angrily screamed for an hour and was roundly praised for a ‘fiery’ speech. Katie Britt passionately made the case on the need for a new direction and is being criticized by the liberal media. Color me surprised."

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/08/congress/gop-dems-britts-sotu-response-criticisms-00146024

    SSI - Could Katie Britt be the Bobby Jindal of 2024? Back in 2009, the then-Governor of Louisiana was also seen as a rising star in the GOP firmament . . . until HIS widely-ridiculed SOTU response . . . which proved the start of a downward trajectory to political oblivion.

    Just watched it. Oh dear. It's like AI doing a crazy fascist Stepford wife!
    You know those YouTube apology speeches which you know aren't really sincere, with vocal fry and intensity in the wrong bits? Well it was like that.
    It was truly bizarre. I presume her star has now shone and she won't be on the ticket.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Weren’t the mortgage rates Truss & Kwarteng’s doing?
    They went up a little more than would have been the case, but the fundamental issue that the developed world has had is that Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed energy prices up.

    This in turn meant inflation was higher.

    Which meant Central Banks raised interest rates (and therefore mortgage rates) in order to lower inflation.

    I can't think of a single developed world government that has survived this with their popularity intact.
    It’s strange that no one puts the case that changing governments probably doesn’t make a difference in that scenario
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
    It wasn’t the “voters” either
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by a landslide in the 2019 general election! 😂

    Oh, and

    B

    R

    E

    X

    I

    T
    You have it in 6 lines. I think he's he most malevolent politician the UK has had, Certainly in living memory.
    Just because it takes you 10 minutes longer to get through customs on your way to your mansion on the Cote D'Azur 😂
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    If Sunak wants his numbers to improve he would be wise to hide David Cameron. The contrast is striking.

    Cameron actually looks and sounds Prime Ministerial.

    Nadine said a while ago the plan is to replace Sunak for Cameron in time for the election!
    Wise move. An adult in the room at last. He was the first UK leader to talk intelligently about Gaza without worrying what Eylon Levy might think.
    Its a really interesting question what Cameron could have done had he decided not to walk away in 2016. He may not have survived. He may have found the tide of the wilder Brexiteers overwhelming. He would certainly have been damaged by the loss of authority that came from being on the losing side of the argument.

    And yet, and yet, none of his successors came close to having his grip of the issues facing this country or the intelligence to see past the slogans to the underlying issues.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
    The difference is that Thatcher had been in power for over decade and her removal caused more long-term internal party issues than it did electoral issues.

    In contrast the idea that Johnson was electorally dispensable was pure hubris.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by a landslide in the 2019 general election! 😂

    Oh, and

    B

    R

    E

    X

    I

    T
    Yeah but, the current mayor was damaged goods in 2008, and again in 2012 when he increased his vote share, and Brexit was cheating, and the landslide was only because of Corbyn, and the unpopularity of Brexit.

    Look the Tories were in hock to the DUP, polling less than 20%, had just got 8% in the Euro Elections and getting a Brexit deal was considered impossible before Boris took over. The fact that he won a landslide with 43% of the vote six months later, then put to bed the post referendum purgatory before they returned to polling 20% after he quit just shows what a drag on the party he was
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    PJH said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    If polled I would agree Johnson has 'lots of personality' - that's the point of his 'Boris' persona. I wouldn't read too much into the public thinking he is less boring than Starmer as that's self-evident. I wouldn't trust him to look after my dog, let alone the country, and would never vote for him under any circumstances.
    But not every voter is a ‘political overthinker, touched by genius’ like so many on PB. They’re not all immune to anything but indestructible logic. Many civvies are likely to be influenced to vote a certain way by a charismatic personality
    Hence why Charisma is important in a political leader. Indeed in many other walks of life too. The sweet spot is where it coincides with integrity, vision and competence. Boy that would be a package.

    Example? Not many, obviously. If there were many it wouldn't be what it is. Rare.

    I was going to offer up RFK - Snr not Jnr - but what about the Monroe episode? That was tawdry.
    When I was in my 20s I was pretty obsessed with RFK senior, partly on the back of Schlesinger Robert Kennedy and his times, which is a sublime book but I read much more widely.

    To me he was not as clever as his brother but, despite his reputation, nowhere near as cynical either. If he had lived I have no doubt he would have been President in 68 and, in my opinion, a great one too. He really cared about people, especially poor or downtrodden people, in ways his brother frankly didn't. America would have been a radically different country and in my view a much better one.
    I have an RFK thing too. I love those clips where he's sticking it to the mobsters. And yes, him in 68 rather than Tricky Dicky, that really is a poignant road not travelled.

    I rate LBJ highly too. I'm getting the Caro opus from my dad when he dies. Really looking forward to that. Well the first bit.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    GIN1138 said:

    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
    Was it Churchill who said the MPs on the other side of the chamber are the opposition and the MP's behind you are your enemys?
    Jim Hacker, though he probably nicked it because it sounds like it could have been around for centuries.
  • isam said:

    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
    It wasn’t the “voters” either
    The voters didn't get rid of Thatcher or Johnson at a General Election. But they had a pretty big role.

    Losing the Eastbourne by-election certainly helped precipitate the challenge to Thatcher and to convince enough colleagues she wouldn't be able to turnit around for a fourth win. And would Johnson have ridden out the Pincher nonsense had he held on to Tiverton & Honiton and Wakefield a few days earlier? I think he probably would.

    Tory MPs didn't just ditch them on a whim or because of a particular misstep. MPs forgive rather a lot if you're a winner - rather less if that aura has gone.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    If Sunak wants his numbers to improve he would be wise to hide David Cameron. The contrast is striking.

    Cameron actually looks and sounds Prime Ministerial.

    Nadine said a while ago the plan is to replace Sunak for Cameron in time for the election!
    Wise move. An adult in the room at last. He was the first UK leader to talk intelligently about Gaza without worrying what Eylon Levy might think.
    Its a really interesting question what Cameron could have done had he decided not to walk away in 2016. He may not have survived. He may have found the tide of the wilder Brexiteers overwhelming. He would certainly have been damaged by the loss of authority that came from being on the losing side of the argument.

    And yet, and yet, none of his successors came close to having his grip of the issues facing this country or the intelligence to see past the slogans to the underlying issues.
    Cameron is a man of the past.
    He was able to project authority as PM because the world pre 2016 (and which he mastered, until Brexit at least) was very different to what came afterwards.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,452
    edited March 8

    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
    The difference is that Thatcher had been in power for over decade and her removal caused more long-term internal party issues than it did electoral issues.

    In contrast the idea that Johnson was electorally dispensable was pure hubris.
    I think Alan Clark suggested that the Tories took the wrong lesson from 1990- that when in trouble with the voters, the thing to do is dump the leader. And because it worked then, they've been far too keen to leap to that conclusion subsequently.

    It has also obscured the Johnson issue. Being really successful at your job probably buys you some leeway behaviour-wise. But even the star player, manager, trader, election winner whoever has to keep to some standards of conduct.

    Johnson didn't.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    isam said:

    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
    It wasn’t the “voters” either
    In the case of Thatcher, I can only offer the evidence the Conservatives were 10 points behind Neil Kinnock's Labour immediately prior to her ousting and yet with Heseltine leading were tied. Had she still been leader in 1992, I suspect the result would have been different and not to the Conservatives' advantage.

    The parallels between her downfall and Johnson's continue - both "won" votes - hers a leadership challenge, his a vote of confidence but with significant numbers not supporting. 152 voted for Heseltine in 1990, 148 voted against the no confidence motion in Johnson in June 2022.

    Both Thatcher and Johnson tried to be defiant in the face of what had happened but both were essentially finished.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,240
    Some hard figures: £2 million minimum per asylum seeker if 300 sent to Rwanda. More per head if fewer sent and the cost will almost certainly will rise over time.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-rwanda-plan-asylum-seekers-could-cost-more-than-600-mln-pounds-2024-03-01/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    If Sunak wants his numbers to improve he would be wise to hide David Cameron. The contrast is striking.

    Cameron actually looks and sounds Prime Ministerial.

    Nadine said a while ago the plan is to replace Sunak for Cameron in time for the election!
    Wise move. An adult in the room at last. He was the first UK leader to talk intelligently about Gaza without worrying what Eylon Levy might think.
    Its a really interesting question what Cameron could have done had he decided not to walk away in 2016. He may not have survived. He may have found the tide of the wilder Brexiteers overwhelming. He would certainly have been damaged by the loss of authority that came from being on the losing side of the argument.

    And yet, and yet, none of his successors came close to having his grip of the issues facing this country or the intelligence to see past the slogans to the underlying issues.
    If Cameron genuinely had such a good grip of the underlying issues facing the country then he wouldn't come across as so glib and shallow.

    It may be sacrilegious to say so but I find him a less serious person than Boris Johnson.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,771
    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    If Sunak wants his numbers to improve he would be wise to hide David Cameron. The contrast is striking.

    Cameron actually looks and sounds Prime Ministerial.

    Nadine said a while ago the plan is to replace Sunak for Cameron in time for the election!
    Wise move. An adult in the room at last. He was the first UK leader to talk intelligently about Gaza without worrying what Eylon Levy might think.
    Its a really interesting question what Cameron could have done had he decided not to walk away in 2016. He may not have survived. He may have found the tide of the wilder Brexiteers overwhelming. He would certainly have been damaged by the loss of authority that came from being on the losing side of the argument.

    And yet, and yet, none of his successors came close to having his grip of the issues facing this country or the intelligence to see past the slogans to the underlying issues.
    Cameron is a man of the past.
    He was able to project authority as PM because the world pre 2016 (and which he mastered, until Brexit at least) was very different to what came afterwards.

    "Cameron is a man of the past."
    Very good. He might have been the future, once
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989

    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by landslide in 2019! 😂
    Strange, it wasn't the "lefties" who got rid of him, though, was it?

    Rather like Margaret Thatcher, three times a winner and yet still done in by her own MPs.
    The difference is that Thatcher had been in power for over decade and her removal caused more long-term internal party issues than it did electoral issues.

    In contrast the idea that Johnson was electorally dispensable was pure hubris.
    Yet the net effect may well be the same and it might have made no difference.

    After extended periods in office, the Conservatives are facing as big a defeat in 2024 as they were in 1997 (if not bigger). It may have little to do with the leader and more with the way the Party has comported itself in office. Perhaps the hubris is the notion they can do what they like but will be in Government for ever.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
    Because Boris reached parts of the country that Sunak could not.

    That's really the crux of @isam's point, and he is absolutely correct in that assessment.

    However... I think there's a slight tendency to forget that bad things would have happened to Boris had he stayed in Office. The inflation that has made pretty much every incumbent government in the developed world unpopular would have happened to him too. Likewise, the drip, drip, drip about his personal morals would have cemented opposition to him.

    Over time, leaders tend to become less popular. I don't doubt Johnson would have been on that same glide slope.
    Yes, although opposition to him was pretty much cemented anyway, divisive politicians have lots of haters

    Even if he were doing as badly in the polls as Sunak, which is doubtful to say the least (Truss wouldn’t have happened, the crazy budget wouldn’t have happened, mortgages wouldn’t have been unaffordable) he has the personality, according to all polls, to regain a lot of lost votes during the campaign. IPSOS, so treasured by poll lovers, had him beating Sir Keir by record margins in this respect. Yet people on here seem to think that having Boris, whom 60% of the public say ‘has lots of personality’ vs Sir Keir who got 22% on that measure is of no advantage compared to Sunak, who the public find as bland as Starmer
    I think it's optimistic to say that Johnson's unpopularity had topped out. Maybe you can argue that those people who personally hated him would continue to hate him (and that's probably true), but I don't think you can ignore the fact that he would have faced the same headwinds any leader would.

    There are lots of people who would have seen their mortgage rates increase at the same time as their electricity bills, while their wages were stagnant.

    And that was going to happen irrespective of who the leader (or even what coloured rosette they wore), because the major drivers behind the wave of inflation have been global rather than local.

    My gut is that Johnson would be doing better in the polls than Sunak, but that he would be facing a very similar shellecking at the polls.
    Anecdata but from looking around, there seem to be a lot of people who actively dislike Boris, in a way they do not Rishi, May or even Truss. It is personal, not just political.
    Well he drives lefties absolutely crazy because they lost to him (twice) in London and by a landslide in the 2019 general election! 😂

    Oh, and

    B

    R

    E

    X

    I

    T
    You have it in 6 lines. I think he's he most malevolent politician the UK has had, Certainly in living memory.
    Just because it takes you 10 minutes longer to get through customs on your way to your mansion on the Cote D'Azur 😂
    ......and the small matter of the country dropping 170 billion smackers and 5% of GDP and losing all those beautiful Europeans from our cities and towns
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    In passing I should say that Leeds United are wearing what surely is the worst football kit in history tonight. I mean, what were they thinking?
This discussion has been closed.