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This is not the platform to launch a May election – politicalbetting.com
This is not the platform to launch a May election – politicalbetting.com
NEW: Brits have given their verdict on the March 6th Budget.The public is fairly split on whether the budget was fair (27%) or not fair (32%), and on whether the measures outlined by the Chancellor were affordable (28%) or not (33%) for the country.https://t.co/ZautXMiRyK pic.twitter.com/uTo5wxmNOn
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Gillian Keegan says she would have ‘punched’ rude Ofsted inspectors
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/08/gillian-keegan-says-she-would-have-punched-rude-ofsted-inspectors
You'd think they hadn't been in power for the last decade.
The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.
The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.
That situation could change at any time, so another reason for the Tories to go for a May election IMO.
What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?
Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390
I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)
What has he got to promise that would be even remotely believable ?
A determined campaign to post pictures of dear old Boris falling over, hanging helplessly from a wire while waving a Union Jack, hosting Have I Got News For You? etc would very rapidly have the Tories leading the polls again.
As for his Chancellor, I'm sure the volunteers would be legion, as soon as they saw the way the wind was blowing. Kwasi Kwarteng, Liz Truss, Nadine Dorries - perhaps even Rishi Sunak himself ...
And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
£40m would have been better spent on promoting non segregated schools in Northern Ireland instead.
You got me there.
Though given his track record on mega-projects, you ought to be looking for someone else to push your interesting scheme.
Hence 2 May is his best bet. There is no shame in fighting on your own terms. Why risk the humiliation of a leadership challenge?
As for the money, the government is bunging several billion to NI to get devolved government up and running again. £40m would barely figure.
The enquiry is simply saying they were bullshitting.
(As he deleted his sharing of a tweet "depicting London mayor Sadiq Khan ... in a sex act with a pig", that can in no way be held against him.)
Biden on hot mic: "I told him, Bibi, and don't repeat this, but you and I are going to have a 'come to Jesus' meeting."
What you see in the middle of that graph is a minor party surge in an period of intense partisan positioning by voters based on the Brexit debate, within the safety of “mid-term” (notably the locals and Euro elections of that spring). So Brexit party soars because they represent Brexit, and so do the Lib Dems, and to a lesser extent Greens, because they represent remain, though delayed by the presence of Change UK.
Voters were staking out their ground in the hope the big two parties would listen. Then when Labour adopted second referendum and Tories adopted hard Brexit they settled back. They would have done anyway as the looming GE focused minds.
Boris may have helped things over the line - not least with point 2 below - but most important I think were two factors:
1. Corbyn and his clique really becoming toxic to voters
2. The Lib Dems clinging on to more (inefficient, dispersed) third party votes while BXP chose not to stand in Tory seats and marginals
Makes one proud to live in Yorkshire. Our kids are so far ahead of their peers in the south
I mean, we've got MORE than enough active PB Putinists on this board already.
https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1766113226779938997
Since 1989 and a new age of globalization began, 51 million jobs have been created in America.
49 million, 96%, have been created under Democratic Presidents.
Essentially all of them. Over 35 years.
US employers add a surprisingly strong 275,000 jobs in sign of continued economic strength
https://twitter.com/politico/status/1766104838205485460
The point about costing more lives than he saved is being highlighted because the results of the police investigation directly contradict the spin that's been put about for years. It's important that they make that clear.
The answer to that paradox is fairly simple. YouGov failed to test opinion on the single important measure in the entire budget - which was there in the Red Book even if Hunt couldn't bring himself to mention it in his speech. That is, they failed to assess opinion on "Freezing income tax allowances so that the share of income paid in tax will rise if personal incomes increase over the next 5 years".
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/08/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-updates-idf-aid-palestine/ (£££)
Parachutes on aid packages failed to open.
Are you perhaps implying that if that is pointed out to them, people will turn from lukewarn to positively hostile?
Now more people are aware of his clown like tendencies I suspect even 2024 Boris wouldn’t poll anything like 2019 Boris
Although a lot could follow 'naturally' from his career choices.
..Cromwell's body was exhumed from Westminster Abbey on 30 January 1661, the 12th anniversary of the execution of Charles I, and was subjected to a posthumous execution, as were the remains of John Bradshaw and Henry Ireton. (The body of Cromwell's daughter was allowed to remain buried in the abbey.) His body was hanged in chains at Tyburn, London, and then thrown into a pit. His head was cut off and displayed on a pole outside Westminster Hall until 1685. Afterwards, it was owned by various people, including a documented sale in 1814 to Josiah Henry Wilkinson, and it was publicly exhibited several times before being buried beneath the floor of the antechapel at Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge, in 1960...
I mean, Sidney Sussex; the humiliation.
https://www.rsc.org/news-events/articles/2024/03-march/burlington-house-lease-agreement-government-dluhc/
"‘No discernible nostrils’: Crufts in row over prizes for French bulldog"
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/08/no-discernible-nostrils-crufts-in-row-over-prizes-for-french-bulldog
Official GOP Response to SOTU Has Republicans ‘Losing It’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/official-katie-britt-gop-response-to-state-of-the-union-has-republicans-losing-it
As President Joe Biden mingled on the House floor following his State of the Union address Thursday night, Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) gave the official Republican response, a stern but bizarrely delivered rebuttal that focused heavily on immigration and the economy.
The freshman senator is considered a rising star in the party. But her speech’s intense tone—with an over-the-top dramatic cadence that was delivered in a kitchen—left political operatives and observers struggling to make sense of it.
The performance was so bad that some Republicans watched the high-profile speech with a grimace.
A GOP strategist told The Daily Beast that Britt’s delivery quickly became a gossip item Thursday night among operatives connected to Donald Trump—something that could have potential implications for her consideration as a vice presidential pick on the 2024 ticket.
“Everyone’s fucking losing it,” this Republican said, requesting anonymity to discuss private conversations. “It’s one of our biggest disasters ever.”
“No one was surprised that [Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell’s handpicked senator resonated so poorly with the base,” said a source close to Trump, who requested anonymity for similar reasons. (Britt is a favorite of McConnell, which has made Trumpworld suspicious.)
“But her performance was the stuff of nightmares and people were surprised by that,” they continued.
This Republican said it is still unknown how the performance will affect Britt’s VP stock, but noted that Trump definitely watched the coverage of it and it “isn’t going to help.”
Several popular social media influencers in the MAGA camp also panned the speech; the account Catturd tweeted Britt was "awful" to his 2.4 million followers...
Working backwards, parliament would need to be dissolved by 26 March.
Tidying up and finalisation of legislation (Finance Bill No. 2 etc) in the week previously.
So around Monday 18 March to make the announcement.
Conversely if too many voters temper a Labour landslide by voting Conservative we have a1992 redux.
Reports of the death of the Conservative Party are premature.
Not saying it'd work, but if you're desperate...
HYUFD will be along later to tell you about your fate in Hell.
Breaking: Donald Trump has posted a bond of nearly $92 million in E. Jean Carroll defamation case. The posted bond is exactly $91,630,000.00, which includes a district’s courts common practice of requiring a bond of 110% of the judgement.
Insurance company Chubb underwrote the $91.63 million bond for Donald Trump, which the former president signed on Tuesday, March 5.
Under the terms of the bond, Chubb will only secure the appeal of the $83.3 million judgment, not any future appeals.
HR moments before announcing layoffs
https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1766131126912065804?s=20
Her delivery is like high school drama overacting bad.
A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.
Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.
Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.
I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.
Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it
Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%
Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.
To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.
Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.
In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.
Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.
We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.
https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Sure, those are at the top end of the spread, may be wrong, or opinion may shift back if they're not wrong (or, indeed, if they are). On the other hand, Labour might win by 20 points or more. Opinion is more volatile now as party identification diminishes. There are plenty of events that could reduce the Tory share further, or merely keep it from rising.
And if Labour does win by 20 points, never mind 27 or 28, it will look very Canada-ish.
I'm not suggesting it's odd-on that Labour will be 500+ seats because it's not. But that is a plausible outcome and shouldn't be written off as outlandish. We've had enough evidence from polling and by-elections over the last 18 months that if we ignore it, we've no-one to blame but ourselves.
Good for E Jean Carroll. (I keep wanting to call her Eugene when I hear it read out).
I think he has 2 Appeal stages:
Appellate Divisions of the Supreme Court, and the Court of Appeals.
(Obviously since it is NY, the names are the wrong way around.)
So Mr Trump has a couple of weeks to liberate another $600 million or so.
Scared the crap out of me.
Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.
Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.
Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
Nor does it give any sense as to recovery. Having sold their morals and ethics so cheaply, from where do they then start to oppose Labour?
On 2 May.
Will Sunak bottle it?
What a weird woman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
Johnson was the architect of his own demise.
Putin might like to claim he had a hand in Johnson's defenestration, but unless he was at the Downing Street parties or encouraging Johnson to save Patterson and Pincher, he can claim Jack S**t!
Anyone with a sliver of a sliver of a brain (which let's assume includes the thread writer) can see that Donald Trump (and Boris Johnson for that matter, although maybe not so much Farage back in the day) does only what benefits himself - therefore to say his supporters 'think' he is a man of principle courageously standing up for what he believes, this is straight out calling them thick as two short planks.
Which is largely correct but surely not what he's trying to get over?
Like he said, ‘sensible’ people hate him. But they loved the leaders that could only achieve tiny majorities or hung parliaments.
I hope the new one doesn't prefer to fake being smart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4ExySEdqIE