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This is not the platform to launch a May election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited March 12 in General
This is not the platform to launch a May election – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Brits have given their verdict on the March 6th Budget.The public is fairly split on whether the budget was fair (27%) or not fair (32%), and on whether the measures outlined by the Chancellor were affordable (28%) or not (33%) for the country.https://t.co/ZautXMiRyK pic.twitter.com/uTo5wxmNOn

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    First like the Wehrmacht in 1940.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    These risible attempts at populism just demonstrate they shouldn't be in government.

    Gillian Keegan says she would have ‘punched’ rude Ofsted inspectors
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/08/gillian-keegan-says-she-would-have-punched-rude-ofsted-inspectors

    You'd think they hadn't been in power for the last decade.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    Indeed. And, from Sunny's own point of view, better to be bold and face the music on his own terms on May 2 then face a humiliating leadership challenge after the locals on May 5.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959
    edited March 8

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    Luckily for the Conservatives, Tice is no Farage and Reform generally seem to be underperforming their polling position in real elections.

    That situation could change at any time, so another reason for the Tories to go for a May election IMO.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    edited March 8
    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Perhaps Johnno might himself opt for the Chancellorship, pledging to restore sanity to the public finances on a bedrock of sound money.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,822
    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)
    He could offer the job to Carol Vorderman as way of drawing a line under the covid corruption and blame it all on Rishi Sunak.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,348
    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    If he returned as leader I think Boris would say something along these lines: 'Look I know Brexit is a bit crap, but that's because Rishi doesn't really believe in it and I got distracted by COVID. Give me a second chance and we can make Brexit work again!'
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)

    But it would be transparently empty bluster.

    What has he got to promise that would be even remotely believable ?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153
    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    I think you are underestimating the power of social media.

    A determined campaign to post pictures of dear old Boris falling over, hanging helplessly from a wire while waving a Union Jack, hosting Have I Got News For You? etc would very rapidly have the Tories leading the polls again.

    As for his Chancellor, I'm sure the volunteers would be legion, as soon as they saw the way the wind was blowing. Kwasi Kwarteng, Liz Truss, Nadine Dorries - perhaps even Rishi Sunak himself ...
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    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    I think the all important question for Rishi is could he get to the Autumn if he doesn’t call a May election.

    And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)

    But it would be transparently empty bluster.

    What has he got to promise that would be even remotely believable ?
    He could promise to build skyscrapers in Milton Keynes. ;)
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    Should we really have spent £40m and seven years investigating if it was more or less lives? Those involved will have their own views anyway and how does the government learn any useful lessons unless there is another sectarian slow burn civil war going on?

    £40m would have been better spent on promoting non segregated schools in Northern Ireland instead.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)

    But it would be transparently empty bluster.

    What has he got to promise that would be even remotely believable ?
    He could promise to build skyscrapers in Milton Keynes. ;)
    Ha !
    You got me there.

    Though given his track record on mega-projects, you ought to be looking for someone else to push your interesting scheme.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    They are absolutely screwed. I’d forgotten how bad it was for them pre Boris… and it’s heading that way post Boris too
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)
    He could offer the job to Carol Vorderman as way of drawing a line under the covid corruption and blame it all on Rishi Sunak.
    Could that be the same Carol Vorderman who wrote revently "This time around, tactical voting will wipe out the Conservative party and I can’t wait to be a part of it."?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    I think the all important question for Rishi is could he get to the Autumn if he doesn’t call a May election.

    And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
    This is the key question.

    Hence 2 May is his best bet. There is no shame in fighting on your own terms. Why risk the humiliation of a leadership challenge?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,112
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    I think the all important question for Rishi is could he get to the Autumn if he doesn’t call a May election.

    And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
    To install yet another leader would really wind up the public. I just can’t see Sunak being ousted at this point .
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    His charisma and campaigning flair would probably save a few seats but that's the upper limit of it.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    Should we really have spent £40m and seven years investigating if it was more or less lives? Those involved will have their own views anyway and how does the government learn any useful lessons unless there is another sectarian slow burn civil war going on?

    £40m would have been better spent on promoting non segregated schools in Northern Ireland instead.
    It is a police criminal investigation, not a government enquiry.

    As for the money, the government is bunging several billion to NI to get devolved government up and running again. £40m would barely figure.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244
    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)

    Aaron Bell would make a good Chancellor. :)
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,073
    edited March 8
    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    There have been a lot of small things that, on their own, would be insufficient to shift the dial, but cumulatively, have shown them not fit to govern. Things like PPE, sleazy MPs, lies, the pictures of the late Queen mourning Prince Philip alone, Covid parties, voters’ personal experience of the failures of the NHS etc. etc. The things that the Tories think matter to voters, like small boats, only matter to a small minority.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    I think the all important question for Rishi is could he get to the Autumn if he doesn’t call a May election.

    And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
    This is the key question.

    Hence 2 May is his best bet. There is no shame in fighting on your own terms. Why risk the humiliation of a leadership challenge?
    My Dad wants another 4 years as a councillor before he retires, I reckon Rishi dragging him down could jeopardise that if he goes for it on May 2nd !
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,034

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
    Surely most of the people killed by the IRA nutting squad were IRA members, so the enemy.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
    The security forces have claimed for many years that keeping an undercover murderer in place was morally justified, because precisely such a calculus demonstrated a large number of lives saved.
    The enquiry is simply saying they were bullshitting.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    edited March 8

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    I think the all important question for Rishi is could he get to the Autumn if he doesn’t call a May election.

    And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
    This is the key question.

    Hence 2 May is his best bet. There is no shame in fighting on your own terms. Why risk the humiliation of a leadership challenge?
    From who though? I'd have thought all the serious players are looking at post defeat rather than leading the party into it.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,822
    viewcode said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)

    Aaron Bell would make a good Chancellor. :)
    Not sure he'd want to serve under Boris though, for some strange reason ;)
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153
    viewcode said:

    CatMan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just for the sake of argument, if the Tories could parachute Johnson back into a safe seat, and he survived the necessary by-election (by no means assured), what could he do as a returning leader ?

    What policies could he credibly promoted that might make any difference at all ?

    Who would even agree to serve as (for example) his Chancellor ?

    Lots of Boosterism and Cakeism probably.

    I'm sure he could fine someone to serve as his Chancellor. Patel, Badenoch, Mogg, Aaron Bell (OK maybe not him...)

    Aaron Bell would make a good Chancellor. :)
    And can I just add that Michael Fabricant would also be brilliant.

    (As he deleted his sharing of a tweet "depicting London mayor Sadiq Khan ... in a sex act with a pig", that can in no way be held against him.)
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1766130059461406824

    Biden on hot mic: "I told him, Bibi, and don't repeat this, but you and I are going to have a 'come to Jesus' meeting."
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,040

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    There have been a lot of small things that, on their own, would be insufficient to shift the dial, but cumulatively, have shown them not fit to govern. Things like PPE, sleazy MPs, lies, the pictures of the late Queen mourning Prince Philip alone, Covid parties, voters’ personal experience of the failures of the NHS etc. etc. The things that the Tories think matter to voters, like small boats, only matter to a small minority.
    Like the whole ‘mob rule’ fearmongering thing around protests. It’s just weird - it is both demonstrably untrue, and also basically saying ‘we’ve lost control’. Uh, ok.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,073
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
    The security forces have claimed for many years that keeping an undercover murderer in place was morally justified, because precisely such a calculus demonstrated a large number of lives saved.
    The enquiry is simply saying they were bullshitting.
    If he suffers a nasty accident, my reaction would be “Oh dear, how sad, never mind.”
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    I’m not so sure about 2019. I don’t think they were heading for disaster. They might have been heading for a hung parliament and maybe even Labour largest party, but even that was unlikely.

    What you see in the middle of that graph is a minor party surge in an period of intense partisan positioning by voters based on the Brexit debate, within the safety of “mid-term” (notably the locals and Euro elections of that spring). So Brexit party soars because they represent Brexit, and so do the Lib Dems, and to a lesser extent Greens, because they represent remain, though delayed by the presence of Change UK.

    Voters were staking out their ground in the hope the big two parties would listen. Then when Labour adopted second referendum and Tories adopted hard Brexit they settled back. They would have done anyway as the looming GE focused minds.

    Boris may have helped things over the line - not least with point 2 below - but most important I think were two factors:

    1. Corbyn and his clique really becoming toxic to voters
    2. The Lib Dems clinging on to more (inefficient, dispersed) third party votes while BXP chose not to stand in Tory seats and marginals
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,603
    Boy, 11, found driving BMW towing caravan on M1.

    Makes one proud to live in Yorkshire. Our kids are so far ahead of their peers in the south :smile:
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153
    Ghedebrav said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    There have been a lot of small things that, on their own, would be insufficient to shift the dial, but cumulatively, have shown them not fit to govern. Things like PPE, sleazy MPs, lies, the pictures of the late Queen mourning Prince Philip alone, Covid parties, voters’ personal experience of the failures of the NHS etc. etc. The things that the Tories think matter to voters, like small boats, only matter to a small minority.
    Like the whole ‘mob rule’ fearmongering thing around protests. It’s just weird - it is both demonstrably untrue, and also basically saying ‘we’ve lost control’. Uh, ok.
    To be fair, as a result of the protests, Central London is now less safe than Gaza City.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756
    WHY does Mad Vlad keep on deluging PB with his lame-ass Putin-bots?

    I mean, we've got MORE than enough active PB Putinists on this board already.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    That is a rather remarkable statistic.

    https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1766113226779938997
    Since 1989 and a new age of globalization began, 51 million jobs have been created in America.

    49 million, 96%, have been created under Democratic Presidents.

    Essentially all of them. Over 35 years.

  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,603

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
    The security forces have claimed for many years that keeping an undercover murderer in place was morally justified, because precisely such a calculus demonstrated a large number of lives saved.
    The enquiry is simply saying they were bullshitting.
    If he suffers a nasty accident, my reaction would be “Oh dear, how sad, never mind.”
    What nasty accidents can befall the dead?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    I think the all important question for Rishi is could he get to the Autumn if he doesn’t call a May election.

    And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
    This is the key question.

    Hence 2 May is his best bet. There is no shame in fighting on your own terms. Why risk the humiliation of a leadership challenge?
    My Dad wants another 4 years as a councillor before he retires, I reckon Rishi dragging him down could jeopardise that if he goes for it on May 2nd !
    I briefly read that as Chancellor and thought you’re Hunt’s son.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    I think the all important question for Rishi is could he get to the Autumn if he doesn’t call a May election.

    And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
    I disagree. It's a kind of Major-1995 scenario. There are too many risks of the next leader making it even worse. I don't see how MPs avoid it going to the membership for a second successive election, and is there someone the MPs could unite around anyway? Mordount, possibly? But her advantage is mainly that, like Sunak was, she's a blank sheet who's had a couple of good moments. That's not really very much by itself.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    Should we really have spent £40m and seven years investigating if it was more or less lives? Those involved will have their own views anyway and how does the government learn any useful lessons unless there is another sectarian slow burn civil war going on?

    £40m would have been better spent on promoting non segregated schools in Northern Ireland instead.
    It is a police criminal investigation, not a government enquiry.

    As for the money, the government is bunging several billion to NI to get devolved government up and running again. £40m would barely figure.
    Thanks, my view still stands. The £40m and 7 years has only got us to an interim report. No-one will be sent to prison for this stuff. I really fail to see the societal benefit of spending even more tens of millions and years of peoples times dragging up the past here.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Nigelb said:

    That is a rather remarkable statistic.

    https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1766113226779938997
    Since 1989 and a new age of globalization began, 51 million jobs have been created in America.

    49 million, 96%, have been created under Democratic Presidents.

    Essentially all of them. Over 35 years.

    "Surprising"

    US employers add a surprisingly strong 275,000 jobs in sign of continued economic strength
    https://twitter.com/politico/status/1766104838205485460
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    isam said:

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    They are absolutely screwed. I’d forgotten how bad it was for them pre Boris… and it’s heading that way post Boris too
    So they struggled before Boris ("BB") and are struggling after Boris ("AB"). Hmm. It would appear that the sweet spot is ... well do we need to say it?
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    Should we really have spent £40m and seven years investigating if it was more or less lives? Those involved will have their own views anyway and how does the government learn any useful lessons unless there is another sectarian slow burn civil war going on?

    £40m would have been better spent on promoting non segregated schools in Northern Ireland instead.
    The PSNI has a particular need to be honest about past policing mistakes given the importance to them of maintaining trust and consent from all communities.

    The point about costing more lives than he saved is being highlighted because the results of the police investigation directly contradict the spin that's been put about for years. It's important that they make that clear.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,647
    On thread, I see that there's puzzled comment from YouGov to the effect that the lukewarm overall reception to the budget is "despite the individual measures introduced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt at the despatch box generally being popular".

    The answer to that paradox is fairly simple. YouGov failed to test opinion on the single important measure in the entire budget - which was there in the Red Book even if Hunt couldn't bring himself to mention it in his speech. That is, they failed to assess opinion on "Freezing income tax allowances so that the share of income paid in tax will rise if personal incomes increase over the next 5 years".
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,753
    Airdropped US aid packages kill five in Gaza
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/08/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-updates-idf-aid-palestine/ (£££)

    Parachutes on aid packages failed to open.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,040

    On thread, I see that there's puzzled comment from YouGov to the effect that the lukewarm overall reception to the budget is "despite the individual measures introduced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt at the despatch box generally being popular".

    The answer to that paradox is fairly simple. YouGov failed to test opinion on the single important measure in the entire budget - which was there in the Red Book even if Hunt couldn't bring himself to mention it in his speech. That is, they failed to assess opinion on "Freezing income tax allowances so that the share of income paid in tax will rise if personal incomes increase over the next 5 years".

    I think the Child Benefit change, which is popular, has been largely credited to Martin Lewis.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355

    WHY does Mad Vlad keep on deluging PB with his lame-ass Putin-bots?

    I mean, we've got MORE than enough active PB Putinists on this board already.

    We should perhaps be asking whether Putin was behind the operation to bring down his nemesis Boris Johnson. Were any anti-Boris posters during that era on the Kremlin payroll?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756
    See what I mean?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153
    edited March 8

    On thread, I see that there's puzzled comment from YouGov to the effect that the lukewarm overall reception to the budget is "despite the individual measures introduced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt at the despatch box generally being popular".

    The answer to that paradox is fairly simple. YouGov failed to test opinion on the single important measure in the entire budget - which was there in the Red Book even if Hunt couldn't bring himself to mention it in his speech. That is, they failed to assess opinion on "Freezing income tax allowances so that the share of income paid in tax will rise if personal incomes increase over the next 5 years".

    Hmm. Difficult to see how that, if pointed out to people, would make people more enthusiastic.

    Are you perhaps implying that if that is pointed out to them, people will turn from lukewarn to positively hostile?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,073
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
    The security forces have claimed for many years that keeping an undercover murderer in place was morally justified, because precisely such a calculus demonstrated a large number of lives saved.
    The enquiry is simply saying they were bullshitting.
    If he suffers a nasty accident, my reaction would be “Oh dear, how sad, never mind.”
    What nasty accidents can befall the dead?
    Sorry, missed the small matter of his death. Was it an “accident”?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    They are absolutely screwed. I’d forgotten how bad it was for them pre Boris… and it’s heading that way post Boris too
    So they struggled before Boris ("BB") and are struggling after Boris ("AB"). Hmm. It would appear that the sweet spot is ... well do we need to say it?
    Yep it was Bozo before more people discovered how much of a clown he was…

    Now more people are aware of his clown like tendencies I suspect even 2024 Boris wouldn’t poll anything like 2019 Boris
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170

    See what I mean?

    No!
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1766130059461406824

    Biden on hot mic: "I told him, Bibi, and don't repeat this, but you and I are going to have a 'come to Jesus' meeting."

    Sounds kinky...
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,603

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
    The security forces have claimed for many years that keeping an undercover murderer in place was morally justified, because precisely such a calculus demonstrated a large number of lives saved.
    The enquiry is simply saying they were bullshitting.
    If he suffers a nasty accident, my reaction would be “Oh dear, how sad, never mind.”
    What nasty accidents can befall the dead?
    Sorry, missed the small matter of his death. Was it an “accident”?
    Natural causes, I believe.

    Although a lot could follow 'naturally' from his career choices.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    They are absolutely screwed. I’d forgotten how bad it was for them pre Boris… and it’s heading that way post Boris too
    So they struggled before Boris ("BB") and are struggling after Boris ("AB"). Hmm. It would appear that the sweet spot is ... well do we need to say it?
    Boris in no small way *caused* that situation in 2019.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
    The security forces have claimed for many years that keeping an undercover murderer in place was morally justified, because precisely such a calculus demonstrated a large number of lives saved.
    The enquiry is simply saying they were bullshitting.
    If he suffers a nasty accident, my reaction would be “Oh dear, how sad, never mind.”
    What nasty accidents can befall the dead?
    Ask (appropriately enough) Oliver Cromwell.

    ..Cromwell's body was exhumed from Westminster Abbey on 30 January 1661, the 12th anniversary of the execution of Charles I, and was subjected to a posthumous execution, as were the remains of John Bradshaw and Henry Ireton. (The body of Cromwell's daughter was allowed to remain buried in the abbey.) His body was hanged in chains at Tyburn, London, and then thrown into a pit. His head was cut off and displayed on a pole outside Westminster Hall until 1685. Afterwards, it was owned by various people, including a documented sale in 1814 to Josiah Henry Wilkinson, and it was publicly exhibited several times before being buried beneath the floor of the antechapel at Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge, in 1960...

    I mean, Sidney Sussex; the humiliation.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,193
    Not sure if it is in the papers yet but Mr Gove's operation has finally seen sense on Burlington House and let the various learned societies (Chemistry, Linnean [biology], Geological, Astronomy, Antiquaries.) remain there.

    https://www.rsc.org/news-events/articles/2024/03-march/burlington-house-lease-agreement-government-dluhc/
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    viewcode said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    There have been a lot of small things that, on their own, would be insufficient to shift the dial, but cumulatively, have shown them not fit to govern. Things like PPE, sleazy MPs, lies, the pictures of the late Queen mourning Prince Philip alone, Covid parties, voters’ personal experience of the failures of the NHS etc. etc. The things that the Tories think matter to voters, like small boats, only matter to a small minority.
    Like the whole ‘mob rule’ fearmongering thing around protests. It’s just weird - it is both demonstrably untrue, and also basically saying ‘we’ve lost control’. Uh, ok.
    He believes in conspiracy theories. I gave up on Sunak when he started ranting on about fifteen minute cities, seven bins and abandoning HS2. Some of my taxi drivers bang on about the Great Replacement Theory and Davos (the town not the Kaled). That's fine, it's a free country (and I need them to get to the station) but that mindset is not the one I want in a head of government.
    To put it mildly.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,822
    Paging IanB2

    "‘No discernible nostrils’: Crufts in row over prizes for French bulldog"

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/08/no-discernible-nostrils-crufts-in-row-over-prizes-for-french-bulldog
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    Ghedebrav said:

    On thread, I see that there's puzzled comment from YouGov to the effect that the lukewarm overall reception to the budget is "despite the individual measures introduced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt at the despatch box generally being popular".

    The answer to that paradox is fairly simple. YouGov failed to test opinion on the single important measure in the entire budget - which was there in the Red Book even if Hunt couldn't bring himself to mention it in his speech. That is, they failed to assess opinion on "Freezing income tax allowances so that the share of income paid in tax will rise if personal incomes increase over the next 5 years".

    I think the Child Benefit change, which is popular, has been largely credited to Martin Lewis.
    I thought we had enough of those pesky experts?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Catturd has spoken.

    Official GOP Response to SOTU Has Republicans ‘Losing It’

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/official-katie-britt-gop-response-to-state-of-the-union-has-republicans-losing-it
    As President Joe Biden mingled on the House floor following his State of the Union address Thursday night, Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) gave the official Republican response, a stern but bizarrely delivered rebuttal that focused heavily on immigration and the economy.

    The freshman senator is considered a rising star in the party. But her speech’s intense tone—with an over-the-top dramatic cadence that was delivered in a kitchen—left political operatives and observers struggling to make sense of it.

    The performance was so bad that some Republicans watched the high-profile speech with a grimace.

    A GOP strategist told The Daily Beast that Britt’s delivery quickly became a gossip item Thursday night among operatives connected to Donald Trump—something that could have potential implications for her consideration as a vice presidential pick on the 2024 ticket.

    “Everyone’s fucking losing it,” this Republican said, requesting anonymity to discuss private conversations. “It’s one of our biggest disasters ever.”

    “No one was surprised that [Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell’s handpicked senator resonated so poorly with the base,” said a source close to Trump, who requested anonymity for similar reasons. (Britt is a favorite of McConnell, which has made Trumpworld suspicious.)

    “But her performance was the stuff of nightmares and people were surprised by that,” they continued.

    This Republican said it is still unknown how the performance will affect Britt’s VP stock, but noted that Trump definitely watched the coverage of it and it “isn’t going to help.”

    Several popular social media influencers in the MAGA camp also panned the speech; the account Catturd tweeted Britt was "awful" to his 2.4 million followers...
  • Options
    Broadly we have ten days in which to announce a 2 May election.

    Working backwards, parliament would need to be dissolved by 26 March.

    Tidying up and finalisation of legislation (Finance Bill No. 2 etc) in the week previously.

    So around Monday 18 March to make the announcement.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    They are absolutely screwed. I’d forgotten how bad it was for them pre Boris… and it’s heading that way post Boris too
    So they struggled before Boris ("BB") and are struggling after Boris ("AB"). Hmm. It would appear that the sweet spot is ... well do we need to say it?
    Yep it was Bozo before more people discovered how much of a clown he was…

    Now more people are aware of his clown like tendencies I suspect even 2024 Boris wouldn’t poll anything like 2019 Boris
    No, he might save a few seats but that's about it. It will be interesting where the Cons go from here. That Leave coalition plus fatigue with the Brexit impasse plus Corbyn plus a little bit of the old 'Boris' Saturday night at the palladium really was the Perfect Storm (opposite to usual meaning) for the Tories at GE19. But now what?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,553

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    That's highly unlikely.

    Conversely if too many voters temper a Labour landslide by voting Conservative we have a1992 redux.

    Reports of the death of the Conservative Party are premature.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,276
    edited March 8

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    Pre-election reshuffle. Boris back in from Lords as "Minister for Ukraine" or some such thing. Then not too strange to get him out on the campaign trail... Boris, Cameron, Sunak as The Three Amigos.

    Not saying it'd work, but if you're desperate...
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1766130059461406824

    Biden on hot mic: "I told him, Bibi, and don't repeat this, but you and I are going to have a 'come to Jesus' meeting."

    That sounds disturbingly like Biden's brain is still working well.
    His speech buried 'dementia' fears. Anybody floating that now is a Maga tool (both meanings).
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Report says Army's top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390

    I was listening to some of this on the radio, and it seems a little odd. I can see how you can put a value to the number of lives cost; but the number of lives 'saved'?
    The security forces have claimed for many years that keeping an undercover murderer in place was morally justified, because precisely such a calculus demonstrated a large number of lives saved.
    The enquiry is simply saying they were bullshitting.
    If he suffers a nasty accident, my reaction would be “Oh dear, how sad, never mind.”
    What nasty accidents can befall the dead?
    Ask (appropriately enough) Oliver Cromwell.

    ..Cromwell's body was exhumed from Westminster Abbey on 30 January 1661, the 12th anniversary of the execution of Charles I, and was subjected to a posthumous execution, as were the remains of John Bradshaw and Henry Ireton. (The body of Cromwell's daughter was allowed to remain buried in the abbey.) His body was hanged in chains at Tyburn, London, and then thrown into a pit. His head was cut off and displayed on a pole outside Westminster Hall until 1685. Afterwards, it was owned by various people, including a documented sale in 1814 to Josiah Henry Wilkinson, and it was publicly exhibited several times before being buried beneath the floor of the antechapel at Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge, in 1960...

    I mean, Sidney Sussex; the humiliation.
    And that's just the body.

    HYUFD will be along later to tell you about your fate in Hell.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @jimsciutto

    Breaking: Donald Trump has posted a bond of nearly $92 million in E. Jean Carroll defamation case. The posted bond is exactly $91,630,000.00, which includes a district’s courts common practice of requiring a bond of 110% of the judgement.

    Insurance company Chubb underwrote the $91.63 million bond for Donald Trump, which the former president signed on Tuesday, March 5.

    Under the terms of the bond, Chubb will only secure the appeal of the $83.3 million judgment, not any future appeals.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828
    Ghedebrav said:

    On thread, I see that there's puzzled comment from YouGov to the effect that the lukewarm overall reception to the budget is "despite the individual measures introduced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt at the despatch box generally being popular".

    The answer to that paradox is fairly simple. YouGov failed to test opinion on the single important measure in the entire budget - which was there in the Red Book even if Hunt couldn't bring himself to mention it in his speech. That is, they failed to assess opinion on "Freezing income tax allowances so that the share of income paid in tax will rise if personal incomes increase over the next 5 years".

    I think the Child Benefit change, which is popular, has been largely credited to Martin Lewis.
    Whilst the immediate change will undoubtedly be popular, the future change to means testing based on household rather than individual income will be making plenty of people pretty nervous - especially since the details have yet to be announced. The government may get less credit than they're hoping for...
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    Nigelb said:

    Several popular social media influencers in the MAGA camp also panned the speech; the account Catturd tweeted Britt was "awful" to his 2.4 million followers...

    @ArmandDoma

    HR moments before announcing layoffs

    https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1766131126912065804?s=20
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1766130059461406824

    Biden on hot mic: "I told him, Bibi, and don't repeat this, but you and I are going to have a 'come to Jesus' meeting."

    That sounds disturbingly like Biden's brain is still working well.
    His speech buried 'dementia' fears. Anybody floating that now is a Maga tool (both meanings).
    I'm still rewatching the SOTU response.
    Her delivery is like high school drama overacting bad.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    ...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    CatMan said:

    Paging IanB2

    "‘No discernible nostrils’: Crufts in row over prizes for French bulldog"

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/08/no-discernible-nostrils-crufts-in-row-over-prizes-for-french-bulldog

    Indeed. I wasn't very complimentary about that group winner last night
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,753
    Nigelb said:

    Catturd has spoken.

    Official GOP Response to SOTU Has Republicans ‘Losing It’

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/official-katie-britt-gop-response-to-state-of-the-union-has-republicans-losing-it
    As President Joe Biden mingled on the House floor following his State of the Union address Thursday night, Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) gave the official Republican response, a stern but bizarrely delivered rebuttal that focused heavily on immigration and the economy.

    The freshman senator is considered a rising star in the party. But her speech’s intense tone—with an over-the-top dramatic cadence that was delivered in a kitchen—left political operatives and observers struggling to make sense of it.

    The performance was so bad that some Republicans watched the high-profile speech with a grimace.

    A GOP strategist told The Daily Beast that Britt’s delivery quickly became a gossip item Thursday night among operatives connected to Donald Trump—something that could have potential implications for her consideration as a vice presidential pick on the 2024 ticket.

    “Everyone’s fucking losing it,” this Republican said, requesting anonymity to discuss private conversations. “It’s one of our biggest disasters ever.”

    “No one was surprised that [Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell’s handpicked senator resonated so poorly with the base,” said a source close to Trump, who requested anonymity for similar reasons. (Britt is a favorite of McConnell, which has made Trumpworld suspicious.)

    “But her performance was the stuff of nightmares and people were surprised by that,” they continued.

    This Republican said it is still unknown how the performance will affect Britt’s VP stock, but noted that Trump definitely watched the coverage of it and it “isn’t going to help.”

    Several popular social media influencers in the MAGA camp also panned the speech; the account Catturd tweeted Britt was "awful" to his 2.4 million followers...

    Katie Britt: "... are a disgrace" and now I'm having flashbacks.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1766130059461406824

    Biden on hot mic: "I told him, Bibi, and don't repeat this, but you and I are going to have a 'come to Jesus' meeting."

    That sounds disturbingly like Biden's brain is still working well.
    His speech buried 'dementia' fears. Anybody floating that now is a Maga tool (both meanings).
    Yes, we see it a lot from the Never Trump Butters right here on PB. For some reason, the deranged warblings of Trump himself seem to pass them by.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,002
    Selebian said:

    Boy, 11, found driving BMW towing caravan on M1.

    Makes one proud to live in Yorkshire. Our kids are so far ahead of their peers in the south :smile:

    The case for keeping the age of criminal responsibility at 10?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    That's highly unlikely.

    Conversely if too many voters temper a Labour landslide by voting Conservative we have a1992 redux.

    Reports of the death of the Conservative Party are premature.
    A 'Canada 1993' is not "highly unlikely". The last two published polls have given Labour leads of 27 and 28 points.

    Sure, those are at the top end of the spread, may be wrong, or opinion may shift back if they're not wrong (or, indeed, if they are). On the other hand, Labour might win by 20 points or more. Opinion is more volatile now as party identification diminishes. There are plenty of events that could reduce the Tory share further, or merely keep it from rising.

    And if Labour does win by 20 points, never mind 27 or 28, it will look very Canada-ish.

    I'm not suggesting it's odd-on that Labour will be 500+ seats because it's not. But that is a plausible outcome and shouldn't be written off as outlandish. We've had enough evidence from polling and by-elections over the last 18 months that if we ignore it, we've no-one to blame but ourselves.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,002
    edited March 8
    Scott_xP said:

    @jimsciutto

    Breaking: Donald Trump has posted a bond of nearly $92 million in E. Jean Carroll defamation case. The posted bond is exactly $91,630,000.00, which includes a district’s courts common practice of requiring a bond of 110% of the judgement.

    Insurance company Chubb underwrote the $91.63 million bond for Donald Trump, which the former president signed on Tuesday, March 5.

    Under the terms of the bond, Chubb will only secure the appeal of the $83.3 million judgment, not any future appeals.

    I thought it was 20%, but let's not quibble over trifles.

    Good for E Jean Carroll. (I keep wanting to call her Eugene when I hear it read out).

    I think he has 2 Appeal stages:

    Appellate Divisions of the Supreme Court, and the Court of Appeals.

    (Obviously since it is NY, the names are the wrong way around.)

    So Mr Trump has a couple of weeks to liberate another $600 million or so.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    .
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Several popular social media influencers in the MAGA camp also panned the speech; the account Catturd tweeted Britt was "awful" to his 2.4 million followers...

    @ArmandDoma

    HR moments before announcing layoffs

    https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1766131126912065804?s=20
    I want @Leon 's take on "..We see you..".

    Scared the crap out of me.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,553
    edited March 8
    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Why is anyone bigging up this lazy good for nothing, sexually incontinent scoundrel?

    Even taking into account Truss's five minute Premiership, Johnson was unquestionably the most venal, bone idle, incompetent Prime Minister in my lifetime and beyond.

    Johnson was a stooping, shambling, unkemp, chaotic mess. He was an embarrassment to the nation. There are dozens if not hundreds of Tory MPs who would make a better fist of being Prime Minister than this arrogant, venal fool. Tugenhadt, Mordaunt and even our own Tissue Price.

    Pack this clown back in his box where he belongs.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,822
    edited March 8
    They've changed the sign above the Ferrari garage


  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    Scott_xP said:

    @jimsciutto

    Breaking: Donald Trump has posted a bond of nearly $92 million in E. Jean Carroll defamation case. The posted bond is exactly $91,630,000.00, which includes a district’s courts common practice of requiring a bond of 110% of the judgement.

    Insurance company Chubb underwrote the $91.63 million bond for Donald Trump, which the former president signed on Tuesday, March 5.

    Under the terms of the bond, Chubb will only secure the appeal of the $83.3 million judgment, not any future appeals.

    Did Chubb deliver it by check?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    edited March 8
    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Frankly, that whole screed is an indictment of its author; a purely transactional account that the Tories should lose less badly under a liar, cheat, bully, coward and rule-breaker than under a bit of an odd duffer; that MPs should put up with his behaviour, his abuse of patronage, his corruption of the entire system, just so Labour's majority is (probably) marginally less gargantuan. It's not as if Johnson's ratings were anything to write home about in 2019 and that was just when he was hiding in a fridge rather than partying while the country was in lockdown and the Queen mourned.

    Nor does it give any sense as to recovery. Having sold their morals and ethics so cheaply, from where do they then start to oppose Labour?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286

    This weeks average polling chart, three polls pre budget and three after.

    Reform continuing their upward trajectory.

    It's interesting to compare with the polling from 2019. In hindsight it's clear that Johnson saved them from disaster.

    The difference this time is that there's no Boris on the horizon. If Reform can run a professional campaign and Sunak flounders, then a Canadian-style wipeout can't be ruled out.

    image
    That's highly unlikely.

    Conversely if too many voters temper a Labour landslide by voting Conservative we have a1992 redux.

    Reports of the death of the Conservative Party are premature.
    A 'Canada 1993' is not "highly unlikely". The last two published polls have given Labour leads of 27 and 28 points.

    Sure, those are at the top end of the spread, may be wrong, or opinion may shift back if they're not wrong (or, indeed, if they are). On the other hand, Labour might win by 20 points or more. Opinion is more volatile now as party identification diminishes. There are plenty of events that could reduce the Tory share further, or merely keep it from rising.

    And if Labour does win by 20 points, never mind 27 or 28, it will look very Canada-ish.

    I'm not suggesting it's odd-on that Labour will be 500+ seats because it's not. But that is a plausible outcome and shouldn't be written off as outlandish. We've had enough evidence from polling and by-elections over the last 18 months that if we ignore it, we've no-one to blame but ourselves.
    It’s time for a general election.

    On 2 May.

    Will Sunak bottle it?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Several popular social media influencers in the MAGA camp also panned the speech; the account Catturd tweeted Britt was "awful" to his 2.4 million followers...

    @ArmandDoma

    HR moments before announcing layoffs

    https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1766131126912065804?s=20
    I want @Leon 's take on "..We see you..".

    Scared the crap out of me.
    What happened at the end of Ex Machina...
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    I’d never heard of Katie Britt before today.

    What a weird woman.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    edited March 8

    See what I mean?

    Out of interest, did you vote for the guy who mocked his opponent for saying that Russia was the biggest threat facing America?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    People have tuned out of anything the Tories say or do.

    The public have made up their mind - they want a change - and it would be in the interests of the Conservative Party to facilitate that as the longer they delay the inevitable the more brutal the publics verdict will probably be.

    I think the all important question for Rishi is could he get to the Autumn if he doesn’t call a May election.

    And I have an inkling that if a vote of no confidence was triggered Rishi would lose it
    This is the key question.

    Hence 2 May is his best bet. There is no shame in fighting on your own terms. Why risk the humiliation of a leadership challenge?
    My Dad wants another 4 years as a councillor before he retires, I reckon Rishi dragging him down could jeopardise that if he goes for it on May 2nd !
    The only reason holding a GE and a local election would be bad for a conservative councillor is if the seat is one the Conservatives only hold due to low turnout and 'over achieving' in campaigning. Things are so bad now that any seat in which the Cons dont already have a naturally strong base anyway is going to be lost in May whatever happens.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,553

    WHY does Mad Vlad keep on deluging PB with his lame-ass Putin-bots?

    I mean, we've got MORE than enough active PB Putinists on this board already.

    We should perhaps be asking whether Putin was behind the operation to bring down his nemesis Boris Johnson. Were any anti-Boris posters during that era on the Kremlin payroll?
    Oh FFS!

    Johnson was the architect of his own demise.

    Putin might like to claim he had a hand in Johnson's defenestration, but unless he was at the Downing Street parties or encouraging Johnson to save Patterson and Pincher, he can claim Jack S**t!
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.


    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I think you'd have done rather better than that.

    Anyone with a sliver of a sliver of a brain (which let's assume includes the thread writer) can see that Donald Trump (and Boris Johnson for that matter, although maybe not so much Farage back in the day) does only what benefits himself - therefore to say his supporters 'think' he is a man of principle courageously standing up for what he believes, this is straight out calling them thick as two short planks.

    Which is largely correct but surely not what he's trying to get over?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    A thread on X that I could have written myself

    A party that was polling over 50% in this same Parliament, now at 18%.

    Few will say it, but I genuinely believe (as I said at the time) that removing Boris Johnson was an act of electoral self-sabotage by the Tories on par with Labour’s embrace of a 2nd referendum in 2019.

    Of course, there was much outrage over 'partygate', but much of the furore was media-driven and amplified by people who hated Boris quite specifically for his role in Brexit.

    I was never convinced it mattered as much for the Tories' 2019 coalition, especially in the long run.

    Truss obviously played a role in trashing the Tories' reputation for 'economic competence' but the 'new' politics of the Tories (right on culture, left on economics) was tied to Boris as its carrier in the eyes of the electorate. Removing him seemed like the Tories didn't mean it

    Of course, Boris could have squandered everything on his own, but he showed a willingness to slaughter Tory sacred cows and thumb his nose at the Tory establishment in a way that was fundamentally different from Truss (ie from the economic left, not right). I doubt he'd be at 18%

    Sunak can't win (in the eyes of 2019 voters). From their perspective, the mere fact he knifed Boris is more meaningful than any of his muddled policy pronouncements.

    To them, he represents an establishment that thinks those voters 'got it wrong' with Boris & need to think again.

    Sensible' people of course hate Boris's guts -- in a way they don't with Sunak, Hunt, or Cameron. In fact, quite the opposite. But it's precisely that reaction to him that I suspect might have helped Boris ultimately hold a good chunk of his 2019 voters. He wouldn't be at 18%.

    In today's volatile politics, loyalty is earned not inherited. One way to build loyalty is to walk over the coals, stick your neck out, take a few arrows. Boris, Corbyn, Farage all have loyal core supporters because they've been seen to bear a level of vitriol for their beliefs.

    Voters will forgive a lot for someone they think ultimately does what they believe is right even if they get criticised for it. This I think helps explain Trump. His supporters know he's done wrong but they see him as standing up for them when an easier alternative was available.

    We might not like that politics operates this way, but in age of tremendous voter cynicism, driven by a variety of 'betrayals' -- Iraq, the expenses scandal the financial crisis, wage stagnation, the collapse in living standards -- it probably should come as no surprise.



    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1765942225845006823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Frankly, that whole screed is an indictment of its author; a purely transactional account that the Tories should lose less badly under a liar, cheat, bully, coward and rule-breaker than under a bit of an odd duffer; that MPs should put up with his behaviour, his abuse of patronage, his corruption of the entire system, just so Labour's majority is (probably) marginally less gargantuan. It's not as if Johnson's ratings were anything to write home about in 2019 and that was just when he was hiding in a fridge rather than partying while the country was in lockdown and the Queen mourned.

    Nor does it give any sense as to recovery. Having sold their morals and ethics so cheaply, from where do they then start to oppose Labour?

    Like he said, ‘sensible’ people hate him. But they loved the leaders that could only achieve tiny majorities or hung parliaments.


  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,002
    Chump has sidelined Alina Habba-Dabba-Doo, it seems, and applied for a new lawyer to be admitted to practise in NY for the Appeal.

    I hope the new one doesn't prefer to fake being smart.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4ExySEdqIE

This discussion has been closed.