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Trump’s Chances – Part 1 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited March 12 in General
imageTrump’s Chances – Part 1 – politicalbetting.com

This is a three part piece. The first, today, looks at the existential threats that Trump faces that could derail him. The second looks at the national polling, at the third party challengers, and how parties have been performing in real elections. And the final piece looks at the swing states and what is happening on the ground.

Read the full story here

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244
    edited March 7
    Not bad, tbh.😃 Looking forward to parts 2 and 3
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    Great piece, can't wait for the next one.

    On the money I'd have thought the Saudis would help him out? He already took a massive bribe from them via his son-and-law and the voters don't seem to have cared.

    PS Should there be a link attached to "this guy"?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,483
    Bet his kids cannot bee too chuffed at the trumpdozer wasting their inheritance like this.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,483
    Even the usually on message BBC has a pessimistic take on Ukraine and the advances expected to be made by Russia in the East. If not winning the war Russia certainly seems to be getting the upper hand. Interesting post on Ukraine from Dura Ace in the prior thread too.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68493215
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
    You may not have noticed the 'quality' of troops that Russia is sending to the front. Both sides have manpower issues of varying importance. As for the CinC wanting a check on what people are doing: I bet that's hardly uncommon in war. especially if it turns up roles that can be better supported by countries outside Ukraine, e.g. some maintenance.

    As others have pointed out, your original point was bogus. Another factor will be training time: lots of people will have been mobilised, but will still be in the training pipelines - on both sides, though Russia apparently seems keen to just chuck people into the battle without much training.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Interesting development.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370140
    ..To implement LLMs typically utilized in generative AI tasks, a substantial number of graphic processing units (GPUs) and 250 watts of power are typically required. However, the KAIST research team managed to implement the language model using a compact AI chip measuring just 4.5 millimeters by 4.5 millimeters.

    "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement, and we are proud to be the first in the world to run the LLM with a low-power neuromorphic accelerator," Yoo said...

    ..The research team said this semiconductor uses only 1/625 of the power and is only 1/41 the size of Nvidia's GPU for the same tasks.


    As the research chip was produced with a 28nm feature size, any commercial products ought to be significantly more efficient.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,325
    Pat McFadden (Labour Shadow Cabinet) confirmed on Newsnight that Labour is supporting every measure in the Budget.

    Just to confirm that's not a typo - Labour is supporting every single measure.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
    All very interesting, but it's not why the tide of the war has changed in the last couple of months.
    Most supplies of US kit have slowed down or simply stopped.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting development.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370140
    ..To implement LLMs typically utilized in generative AI tasks, a substantial number of graphic processing units (GPUs) and 250 watts of power are typically required. However, the KAIST research team managed to implement the language model using a compact AI chip measuring just 4.5 millimeters by 4.5 millimeters.

    "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement, and we are proud to be the first in the world to run the LLM with a low-power neuromorphic accelerator," Yoo said...

    ..The research team said this semiconductor uses only 1/625 of the power and is only 1/41 the size of Nvidia's GPU for the same tasks.


    As the research chip was produced with a 28nm feature size, any commercial products ought to be significantly more efficient.

    That's interesting, and it's unsurprising that there are more efficient techniques- people have been working on neuron-like schemes for years. 28nm is also far from the cutting edge; but some things are rather hard to do at smaller gate sizes (Mrs j still occasionally works with 45nm, now 17 years old).

    But as ever, I'd exercise caution. Wait until people without skin in the game get hold of samples.

    Steve Furber (one of the designers of the ARM chip), did this at Manchester:
    https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/human-brain-supercomputer-with-1million-processors-switched-on-for-first-time/
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting development.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370140
    ..To implement LLMs typically utilized in generative AI tasks, a substantial number of graphic processing units (GPUs) and 250 watts of power are typically required. However, the KAIST research team managed to implement the language model using a compact AI chip measuring just 4.5 millimeters by 4.5 millimeters.

    "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement, and we are proud to be the first in the world to run the LLM with a low-power neuromorphic accelerator," Yoo said...

    ..The research team said this semiconductor uses only 1/625 of the power and is only 1/41 the size of Nvidia's GPU for the same tasks.


    As the research chip was produced with a 28nm feature size, any commercial products ought to be significantly more efficient.

    That's interesting, and it's unsurprising that there are more efficient techniques- people have been working on neuron-like schemes for years. 28nm is also far from the cutting edge; but some things are rather hard to do at smaller gate sizes (Mrs j still occasionally works with 45nm, now 17 years old).

    But as ever, I'd exercise caution. Wait until people without skin in the game get hold of samples.

    Steve Furber (one of the designers of the ARM chip), did this at Manchester:
    https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/human-brain-supercomputer-with-1million-processors-switched-on-for-first-time/
    I'd be a bit nervous if I had a lot of money in Nvidia.
    If this proves a practical product, it might remove the chip bottleneck which allows them such high margins in their chips.

    Apart from anything else, the physical size is an order of magnitude smaller - and if it can be fabbed on older lines, then that also has interesting implications.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    The Red Bull situation isn't calming down.

    Max Verstappen backs father Jos after criticism of Red Bull chief Horner
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/max-verstappen-stands-by-father-following-claims-red-bull-could-explode-if-christian-horner-stays-formula-one
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,174
    Is the budget falling apart yet, after one night of everyone looking through the details?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,174
    Nigelb said:

    The Red Bull situation isn't calming down.

    Max Verstappen backs father Jos after criticism of Red Bull chief Horner
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/max-verstappen-stands-by-father-following-claims-red-bull-could-explode-if-christian-horner-stays-formula-one

    It’s a full-on civil war within the team, that sounds like it dates back to the death of Dietrich Mateschitz 18 months ago, with several parties fighting for control of the racing division.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,135
    MikeL said:

    Pat McFadden (Labour Shadow Cabinet) confirmed on Newsnight that Labour is supporting every measure in the Budget.

    Just to confirm that's not a typo - Labour is supporting every single measure.

    Are we surprised by this? I know I'm not.

    Labour will attempt to ramp token, cosmetic policy differences between itself and the Tories at the election, but their basic pitch is going to be delivering Conservatism less incompetently than the Conservatives. That's it. No ambition, no imagination, and no interest in actually achieving anything. They just want their turn with the train set, and have concluded that the best way to get it is to reassure the winners from the current system that nothing of substance will change at all. And people wonder why politicians aren't respected or valued, when they go to such lengths to make themselves irrelevant and worthless.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Labour opposes Tories = bad
    Labour supports Tories = bad
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,174
    MikeL said:

    Pat McFadden (Labour Shadow Cabinet) confirmed on Newsnight that Labour is supporting every measure in the Budget.

    Just to confirm that's not a typo - Labour is supporting every single measure.

    A tenner says they don’t vote for it, or try and propose some silly amendment.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,135
    pigeon said:

    MikeL said:

    Pat McFadden (Labour Shadow Cabinet) confirmed on Newsnight that Labour is supporting every measure in the Budget.

    Just to confirm that's not a typo - Labour is supporting every single measure.

    Are we surprised by this? I know I'm not.

    Labour will attempt to ramp token, cosmetic policy differences between itself and the Tories at the election, but their basic pitch is going to be delivering Conservatism less incompetently than the Conservatives. That's it. No ambition, no imagination, and no interest in actually achieving anything. They just want their turn with the train set, and have concluded that the best way to get it is to reassure the winners from the current system that nothing of substance will change at all. And people wonder why politicians aren't respected or valued, when they go to such lengths to make themselves irrelevant and worthless.
    BTW, the fact that the two parties are functionally identical, and can be seen to be so, is a gift to the SNP. They're going to do much better than is generally assumed.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Red Bull situation isn't calming down.

    Max Verstappen backs father Jos after criticism of Red Bull chief Horner
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/max-verstappen-stands-by-father-following-claims-red-bull-could-explode-if-christian-horner-stays-formula-one

    It’s a full-on civil war within the team, that sounds like it dates back to the death of Dietrich Mateschitz 18 months ago, with several parties fighting for control of the racing division.
    It is funny to see Jos Verstappen criticising others over mistreatment of women.

    That backstory should be mentioned whenever his gurning mug appears on TV.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,174

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Red Bull situation isn't calming down.

    Max Verstappen backs father Jos after criticism of Red Bull chief Horner
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/max-verstappen-stands-by-father-following-claims-red-bull-could-explode-if-christian-horner-stays-formula-one

    It’s a full-on civil war within the team, that sounds like it dates back to the death of Dietrich Mateschitz 18 months ago, with several parties fighting for control of the racing division.
    It is funny to see Jos Verstappen criticising others over mistreatment of women.

    That backstory should be mentioned whenever his gurning mug appears on TV.
    It’s only when other people mistreat his woman that he gets upset. When he does it, often physically and violently, then it’s apparently just fine.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    edited March 7
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting development.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370140
    ..To implement LLMs typically utilized in generative AI tasks, a substantial number of graphic processing units (GPUs) and 250 watts of power are typically required. However, the KAIST research team managed to implement the language model using a compact AI chip measuring just 4.5 millimeters by 4.5 millimeters.

    "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement, and we are proud to be the first in the world to run the LLM with a low-power neuromorphic accelerator," Yoo said...

    ..The research team said this semiconductor uses only 1/625 of the power and is only 1/41 the size of Nvidia's GPU for the same tasks.


    As the research chip was produced with a 28nm feature size, any commercial products ought to be significantly more efficient.

    That's interesting, and it's unsurprising that there are more efficient techniques- people have been working on neuron-like schemes for years. 28nm is also far from the cutting edge; but some things are rather hard to do at smaller gate sizes (Mrs j still occasionally works with 45nm, now 17 years old).

    But as ever, I'd exercise caution. Wait until people without skin in the game get hold of samples.

    Steve Furber (one of the designers of the ARM chip), did this at Manchester:
    https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/human-brain-supercomputer-with-1million-processors-switched-on-for-first-time/
    I'd be a bit nervous if I had a lot of money in Nvidia.
    If this proves a practical product, it might remove the chip bottleneck which allows them such high margins in their chips.

    Apart from anything else, the physical size is an order of magnitude smaller - and if it can be fabbed on older lines, then that also has interesting implications.
    You really do need independent people to get samples and do tests; there's a lot of money floating about in this sector, and lots of people wanting to get their hands on it.

    At 28nm, I wouldn't expect too many production issues, compared to the cutting-edge Nvidia potatoes (they're too big to be called 'chips' any more...), but there are many other issues that can cripple a chip or approach.

    As an example of hype, above it says: "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement"

    As I showed with my link, it has been done. Not necessarily on a chip, but that's not what he claimed.

    Beware the hype.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,654

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Red Bull situation isn't calming down.

    Max Verstappen backs father Jos after criticism of Red Bull chief Horner
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/max-verstappen-stands-by-father-following-claims-red-bull-could-explode-if-christian-horner-stays-formula-one

    It’s a full-on civil war within the team, that sounds like it dates back to the death of Dietrich Mateschitz 18 months ago, with several parties fighting for control of the racing division.
    It is funny to see Jos Verstappen criticising others over mistreatment of women.

    That backstory should be mentioned whenever his gurning mug appears on TV.
    Would be of immense benefit to F1 if Verstappen were sacked over this and ended up driving a Haas or something. Would make the season vastly more entertaining.

    But I'll file that under 'not happening.'
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Red Bull situation isn't calming down.

    Max Verstappen backs father Jos after criticism of Red Bull chief Horner
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/max-verstappen-stands-by-father-following-claims-red-bull-could-explode-if-christian-horner-stays-formula-one

    It’s a full-on civil war within the team, that sounds like it dates back to the death of Dietrich Mateschitz 18 months ago, with several parties fighting for control of the racing division.
    It is funny to see Jos Verstappen criticising others over mistreatment of women.

    That backstory should be mentioned whenever his gurning mug appears on TV.
    Would be of immense benefit to F1 if Verstappen were sacked over this and ended up driving a Haas or something. Would make the season vastly more entertaining.

    But I'll file that under 'not happening.'
    Ford were making noises about being unhappy even before the Horner result was announced. Sponsors and partners may cause Red Bull a lot of problems - although their ability to keep winning will probably trump ethical issues.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,654
    edited March 7
    On topic, very interesting. Couple of points:

    1) Which 'guy' spent 15 months in prison? I think there's a link missing.

    2) What about if he can't appeal the Carroll award (assuming, for the moment, he won't be able to appeal the other) due to lack of cash? What then?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Red Bull situation isn't calming down.

    Max Verstappen backs father Jos after criticism of Red Bull chief Horner
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/max-verstappen-stands-by-father-following-claims-red-bull-could-explode-if-christian-horner-stays-formula-one

    It’s a full-on civil war within the team, that sounds like it dates back to the death of Dietrich Mateschitz 18 months ago, with several parties fighting for control of the racing division.
    It is funny to see Jos Verstappen criticising others over mistreatment of women.

    That backstory should be mentioned whenever his gurning mug appears on TV.
    It’s only when other people mistreat his woman that he gets upset. When he does it, often physically and violently, then it’s apparently just fine.
    For some reason I think of this -


    Jack: You're crazy! You're f***in' crazy!

    Howard Payne: NO! Poor people are crazy, Jack. I'm eccentric.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    On red bull, my colleague went to the Bahrain grand Prix (Same one working in Denver the weekend they played the Chiefs !). He noted how he could both see and, this doesn't come across so well on the TV hear how early Verstappen could get the power down and corner glued to the track. He noted a large perceptible difference with all the other cars.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting development.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370140
    ..To implement LLMs typically utilized in generative AI tasks, a substantial number of graphic processing units (GPUs) and 250 watts of power are typically required. However, the KAIST research team managed to implement the language model using a compact AI chip measuring just 4.5 millimeters by 4.5 millimeters.

    "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement, and we are proud to be the first in the world to run the LLM with a low-power neuromorphic accelerator," Yoo said...

    ..The research team said this semiconductor uses only 1/625 of the power and is only 1/41 the size of Nvidia's GPU for the same tasks.


    As the research chip was produced with a 28nm feature size, any commercial products ought to be significantly more efficient.

    That's interesting, and it's unsurprising that there are more efficient techniques- people have been working on neuron-like schemes for years. 28nm is also far from the cutting edge; but some things are rather hard to do at smaller gate sizes (Mrs j still occasionally works with 45nm, now 17 years old).

    But as ever, I'd exercise caution. Wait until people without skin in the game get hold of samples.

    Steve Furber (one of the designers of the ARM chip), did this at Manchester:
    https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/human-brain-supercomputer-with-1million-processors-switched-on-for-first-time/
    I'd be a bit nervous if I had a lot of money in Nvidia.
    If this proves a practical product, it might remove the chip bottleneck which allows them such high margins in their chips.

    Apart from anything else, the physical size is an order of magnitude smaller - and if it can be fabbed on older lines, then that also has interesting implications.
    If it can mine bitcoin too, Nvidia gfx will go back to being well a gfx provider.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089
    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    THis seems to be the key point

    The spokesperson added: "The secretary of state received the appropriate advice from relevant officials at all times.

    Seems a bit odd that officials would pass off something libellous though tbh - whichever official gave the advice that her letter/article was OK should probably face the chop.

    But is that what ACTUALLY happened. Hmm....................
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,053
    MikeL said:

    Pat McFadden (Labour Shadow Cabinet) confirmed on Newsnight that Labour is supporting every measure in the Budget.

    Just to confirm that's not a typo - Labour is supporting every single measure.

    One absurdity of modern budgets is the way so much is post dated. Non-indexation of thresholds to 2028 for example, allowing Hunt to claim to be reducing debt in 2028.

    I can see some point in long term planning, but as much depends on how the economy grows or shrinks, these forward projections are nonsense, just a way of tying the hands of future chancellors. Not that the plans are immutable, but that just makes the projections even more meaningless.

    The real problem for Labour is the spending round. The planned spending cuts financed by imaginary productivity and efficiency savings are a work of fiction and everybody knows it.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    A Twitter thread with more on how much Donelan got this wrong: https://x.com/poppyeh/status/1765127425544122878
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting development.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370140
    ..To implement LLMs typically utilized in generative AI tasks, a substantial number of graphic processing units (GPUs) and 250 watts of power are typically required. However, the KAIST research team managed to implement the language model using a compact AI chip measuring just 4.5 millimeters by 4.5 millimeters.

    "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement, and we are proud to be the first in the world to run the LLM with a low-power neuromorphic accelerator," Yoo said...

    ..The research team said this semiconductor uses only 1/625 of the power and is only 1/41 the size of Nvidia's GPU for the same tasks.


    As the research chip was produced with a 28nm feature size, any commercial products ought to be significantly more efficient.

    That's interesting, and it's unsurprising that there are more efficient techniques- people have been working on neuron-like schemes for years. 28nm is also far from the cutting edge; but some things are rather hard to do at smaller gate sizes (Mrs j still occasionally works with 45nm, now 17 years old).

    But as ever, I'd exercise caution. Wait until people without skin in the game get hold of samples.

    Steve Furber (one of the designers of the ARM chip), did this at Manchester:
    https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/human-brain-supercomputer-with-1million-processors-switched-on-for-first-time/
    I'd be a bit nervous if I had a lot of money in Nvidia.
    If this proves a practical product, it might remove the chip bottleneck which allows them such high margins in their chips.

    Apart from anything else, the physical size is an order of magnitude smaller - and if it can be fabbed on older lines, then that also has interesting implications.
    If it can mine bitcoin too, Nvidia gfx will go back to being well a gfx provider.
    They'll keep going. But the point is that NVidia is currently a darling of the tech sector, and its share price has rocketed over the last year. Most of that has been on the AI hype. If they lose that market, they'll lose a lot of market capitalisation.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=nvidia+share+price

    Incidentally, ARM has been doing rather well recently, for similar reasons. Its shares have essentially doubled in value over the last month.

    Let's all board the hype train, baby! :)
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,053
    edited March 7

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    Imaginary "Culture Wars" are going to be costly when they libel individuals.

    Better to stick to fictional stories of primary school pupils identifying as cats.

  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089
    Pulpstar said:

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    THis seems to be the key point

    The spokesperson added: "The secretary of state received the appropriate advice from relevant officials at all times.

    Seems a bit odd that officials would pass off something libellous though tbh - whichever official gave the advice that her letter/article was OK should probably face the chop.

    But is that what ACTUALLY happened. Hmm....................
    She appears to have copied out an accusation from a right wing think tank without checking it. Instead of privately seeking an investigation into the think tank’s claims, she publicised what she was doing on social media. It seems unlikely that either of those actions was in response to advice from relevant officials.

    I would interpret the spokesperson’s quote as meaning: “The politician did stupid things. Her officials gave her the correct advice, so anything she did wrong is on her.”
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    Pulpstar said:

    On red bull, my colleague went to the Bahrain grand Prix (Same one working in Denver the weekend they played the Chiefs !). He noted how he could both see and, this doesn't come across so well on the TV hear how early Verstappen could get the power down and corner glued to the track. He noted a large perceptible difference with all the other cars.

    Shades of Schumacher and his Benetton (though, not Jos Verstappen’s Benetton) at Aida in 1994:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Pacific_Grand_Prix

    Whether Senna was right or wrong, it clearly got to him and contributed to his attitude at Imola.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Who is this Robert Smithson guy?

    He writes some seriously interesting stuff.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    rcs1000 said:

    Great piece. I agree with it 100%>

    This is one of PB’s strengths, a plethora of modest and self effacing thread writers.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
    All very interesting, but it's not why the tide of the war has changed in the last couple of months.
    Most supplies of US kit have slowed down or simply stopped.
    In our fickle culture, we have got bored of Ukraine and are now on Gaza.

    An attention span of 12-18 months on any new "big thing" is about par for the course, now.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    There's only a point in going after libel if (a) you are well funded to pursue it and (b) your target has lots of cash.

    Otherwise it's a route to bankruptcy, and almost certainly an overreaction because unless you are quite famous/well known it's hard to show your reputation has been seriously damaged.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484
    edited March 7
    Good morning

    The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing

    On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment

    Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate

    No grown up politics there then

    On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular

    It is grossly unfair on workers and equalising IT and NI into one tax is the right thing to do and would make work pay

    I also note labour are going to approve all the budget measures which does ask the question what are they going to do differently

    And finally the next election will follow Hunt's autumn statement and I would think 14th November may well be favourite
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,053

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    There's only a point in going after libel if (a) you are well funded to pursue it and (b) your target has lots of cash.

    Otherwise it's a route to bankruptcy, and almost certainly an overreaction because unless you are quite famous/well known it's hard to show your reputation has been seriously damaged.
    Trying to get research funding removed from professional academics with false accusations is fairly straightforward damage. If that had happened it would have been career ending.

    It seems the minister has got off with a slap on the wrist.

    What a parcel of rogues in a nation.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089
    More culture war backlash for Tories, or why academic free speech is under threat: “Tory peer pays damages after alleging University Challenge mascot was antisemitic”

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2024/mar/06/tory-peer-jacqueline-foster-pays-damages-university-challenge
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    There's only a point in going after libel if (a) you are well funded to pursue it and (b) your target has lots of cash.

    Otherwise it's a route to bankruptcy, and almost certainly an overreaction because unless you are quite famous/well known it's hard to show your reputation has been seriously damaged.
    I doubt Prog Sang is “well funded”, but maybe there’s also a point in going after libel when your case is watertight and the person who attacked you is a complete fool.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    Pulpstar said:

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    THis seems to be the key point

    The spokesperson added: "The secretary of state received the appropriate advice from relevant officials at all times.

    Seems a bit odd that officials would pass off something libellous though tbh - whichever official gave the advice that her letter/article was OK should probably face the chop.

    But is that what ACTUALLY happened. Hmm....................
    She appears to have copied out an accusation from a right wing think tank without checking it. Instead of privately seeking an investigation into the think tank’s claims, she publicised what she was doing on social media. It seems unlikely that either of those actions was in response to advice from relevant officials.

    I would interpret the spokesperson’s quote as meaning: “The politician did stupid things. Her officials gave her the correct advice, so anything she did wrong is on her.”
    I think it is more that idiot officials nodded through stuff when they should have said “wtf?”.

    Which is why this is being paid for by the government and the whole thing vanishing like a fart.

    If it was the minister on her own, necktie party. But a senior official fucked up, and it would be so unfair if he/she didn’t get their next K….
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    edited March 7
    Sandpit said:

    Is the budget falling apart yet, after one night of everyone looking through the details?

    Give it a couple of days.

    The Resolution Foundation pointed out that the pre election tax cuts are a bit of a con, as there's £19bn of tax increase already baked in after the next election.

    The OBR guy had a good point about the difficulty of forecasting. They get fairly detailed tax plans from government - but literally zero detail other, than the single headline government spending figure, for departmental spending plans.
    Hunt has in this budget awarded himself £20bn of future cuts in his planning, without a single inkling of how this will be delivered.

    I think the regular criticisms of OBR forecasts are to great extent based on a poor understanding of what is possible.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    Labour is desperately, pitifully, shamefully, timid nowadays, isn’t it?

    Which comes into greater counterpoint when you contrast with the strategy of the Republican opposition in the US….
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    On topic, both Biden and Trump have similar chances of falling over due to their respective issues. But it isn't more than 10%.

    I expect both to make it. I'd also expect Trump to use the powers of office to help, err, "restore" any losses he might have suffered.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    edited March 7
    Pulpstar said:

    I think if I libelled someone and cost my employer £15,000, there would be some sort of comeback. Is Michelle Donelan going to get off Scot free: https://news.sky.com/story/taxpayers-foot-15-000-damages-bill-after-michelle-donelan-accused-academic-of-having-sympathy-for-hamas-13088671 ?

    THis seems to be the key point

    The spokesperson added: "The secretary of state received the appropriate advice from relevant officials at all times.

    Seems a bit odd that officials would pass off something libellous though tbh - whichever official gave the advice that her letter/article was OK should probably face the chop.

    ..
    You have in your head the assumption that the advice supported the actions. But if you look carefully, you will notice that it doesn’t actually say that.

    The appropriate advice might well have been, “what you say as a campaigning party politician on Twitter is up to you, and not our business”. Or it might have been “I wouldn’t do that, if I were you”.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,060

    Who is this Robert Smithson guy?

    He writes some seriously interesting stuff.

    Yeah but he makes up for it with a terrible taste in music ;)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    edited March 7
    I think that Robert is underestimating the risks of the civil cases to Trump’s finances. Yes he has appealed both judgments but to pursue those appeals he needs to come up with bonds for the awards or other sufficient security. He can and has asked the courts to fix the security at lower levels. He has done this on the basis that he is so rich security is unnecessary and that his appeals are so obviously going to be successful that a lower amount is all that is necessary.

    So far, the courts have said “no” to these arguments leaving Trump with a need to find someone daft enough to post a bond for $550m. The queue is not long. If he can’t the appeals are over and the realisation of his assets begins. Even worse, this triggers default in all his other loans. As Robert points out this is one highly geared individual.

    This is really imminent. He has days to find this money or persuade an appellate court that the security should be less. The collapse of his business empire would, in my view, be a devastating blow to his image and credibility.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Good morning

    The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing

    On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment

    Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate

    No grown up politics there then

    On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular..

    It's fairly clear how it's paid for; the balance of taxation has been shifted a bit from workers onto pensioners (and other non employment income).
    Average of around £1000 tax increase in pensioner taxpayers, I think.

    A sensible policy which the core vote might dislike when they wake up to it.

  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is the budget falling apart yet, after one night of everyone looking through the details?

    Give it a couple of days.

    The Resolution Foundation pointed out that the pre election tax cuts are a bit of a con, as there's £19bn of tax increase already baked in after the next election.

    The OBR guy had a good point about the difficulty of forecasting. They get fairly detailed tax plans from government - but literally zero detail other, than the single headline government spending figure, for departmental spending plans.
    Hunt has in this budget awarded himself £20bn of future cuts in his planning, without a single inkling of how this will be delivered.

    I think the regular criticisms of OBR forecasts are to great extent based on a poor understanding of what is possible.
    Or as one commentator put it,

    There is no point (discussing the individual measures in the budget). You might as well worry about the window boxes on a house that has half fallen into the sea.

    Whoever wins in the next twelve months will look at the books and do lots of nasty stuff in the post-election budget. Stuff that won't be in any manifesto.

    It's bad that Labour are doing it, but unforgivable that a government, a Conservative government is doing so.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,060
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
    So just like in every conscription war of the past 70 years then.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Who is this Robert Smithson guy?

    He writes some seriously interesting stuff.

    Yeah but he makes up for it with a terrible taste in music ;)
    Does he not like Radiohead, then ?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    DavidL said:

    I think that Robert is underestimating the risks of the civil cases to Trump’s finances. Yes he has appealed both judgments but to pursue those appeals he needs to come up with bonds for the awards or other sufficient security. He can and has asked the courts to fix the security at lower levels. He has done this on the basis that he is so rich security is unnecessary and that his appeals are so obviously going to be successful that a lower amount is all that is necessary.

    So far, the courts have said “no” to these arguments leaving Trump with a need to find someone daft enough to post a bond for $550m. The queue is not long. If he can’t the appeals are over and the realisation of his assets begins. Even worse, this triggers default in all his other loans. As Robert points out this is one highly geared individual.

    This is really imminent. He has days to find this money or persuade an appellate court that the security should be less. The collapse of his business empire would, in my view, be a devastating blow to his image and credibility.

    I wonder if that's what the Musk meeting was about ?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
    All very interesting, but it's not why the tide of the war has changed in the last couple of months.
    Most supplies of US kit have slowed down or simply stopped.
    In our fickle culture, we have got bored of Ukraine and are now on Gaza.

    An attention span of 12-18 months on any new "big thing" is about par for the course, now.
    The French, or at least Macron and his government, seem to have discovered a greater interest now that the Americans aren't in the lead.

    It was dispiriting to hear in the budget yesterday that 2.5% of GDP for defence was an aspiration for when economic circumstances allow, as though it was a nice to have that a rich country could indulge in. Completely arse about face.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,483

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting development.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370140
    ..To implement LLMs typically utilized in generative AI tasks, a substantial number of graphic processing units (GPUs) and 250 watts of power are typically required. However, the KAIST research team managed to implement the language model using a compact AI chip measuring just 4.5 millimeters by 4.5 millimeters.

    "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement, and we are proud to be the first in the world to run the LLM with a low-power neuromorphic accelerator," Yoo said...

    ..The research team said this semiconductor uses only 1/625 of the power and is only 1/41 the size of Nvidia's GPU for the same tasks.


    As the research chip was produced with a 28nm feature size, any commercial products ought to be significantly more efficient.

    That's interesting, and it's unsurprising that there are more efficient techniques- people have been working on neuron-like schemes for years. 28nm is also far from the cutting edge; but some things are rather hard to do at smaller gate sizes (Mrs j still occasionally works with 45nm, now 17 years old).

    But as ever, I'd exercise caution. Wait until people without skin in the game get hold of samples.

    Steve Furber (one of the designers of the ARM chip), did this at Manchester:
    https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/human-brain-supercomputer-with-1million-processors-switched-on-for-first-time/
    I'd be a bit nervous if I had a lot of money in Nvidia.
    If this proves a practical product, it might remove the chip bottleneck which allows them such high margins in their chips.

    Apart from anything else, the physical size is an order of magnitude smaller - and if it can be fabbed on older lines, then that also has interesting implications.
    If it can mine bitcoin too, Nvidia gfx will go back to being well a gfx provider.
    They'll keep going. But the point is that NVidia is currently a darling of the tech sector, and its share price has rocketed over the last year. Most of that has been on the AI hype. If they lose that market, they'll lose a lot of market capitalisation.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=nvidia+share+price

    Incidentally, ARM has been doing rather well recently, for similar reasons. Its shares have essentially doubled in value over the last month.

    Let's all board the hype train, baby! :)
    At the moment Nvidia are delivering Earnings Growth to back it up. However will big customers like META continue to buy from them in the quantities they do at the pricing they do.

    There will come a point where NVIDIA moves from being a growth stock to just another stock and the value relative to earnings will come back however at the moment it is backing up the hype by delivering the numbers.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
    So just like in every conscription war of the past 70 years then.
    I think the ratio of US combat troops to conscript was even worse in WWII.

    At time it might have been as low as 20%.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that Robert is underestimating the risks of the civil cases to Trump’s finances. Yes he has appealed both judgments but to pursue those appeals he needs to come up with bonds for the awards or other sufficient security. He can and has asked the courts to fix the security at lower levels. He has done this on the basis that he is so rich security is unnecessary and that his appeals are so obviously going to be successful that a lower amount is all that is necessary.

    So far, the courts have said “no” to these arguments leaving Trump with a need to find someone daft enough to post a bond for $550m. The queue is not long. If he can’t the appeals are over and the realisation of his assets begins. Even worse, this triggers default in all his other loans. As Robert points out this is one highly geared individual.

    This is really imminent. He has days to find this money or persuade an appellate court that the security should be less. The collapse of his business empire would, in my view, be a devastating blow to his image and credibility.

    I wonder if that's what the Musk meeting was about ?
    Musk lost serious money buying Twitter. Would buying a once and future President be any better? It would give him enormous leverage.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,483

    Who is this Robert Smithson guy?

    He writes some seriously interesting stuff.

    Yeah but he makes up for it with a terrible taste in music ;)
    Is he the chap who likes Radiohead ?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that Robert is underestimating the risks of the civil cases to Trump’s finances. Yes he has appealed both judgments but to pursue those appeals he needs to come up with bonds for the awards or other sufficient security. He can and has asked the courts to fix the security at lower levels. He has done this on the basis that he is so rich security is unnecessary and that his appeals are so obviously going to be successful that a lower amount is all that is necessary.

    So far, the courts have said “no” to these arguments leaving Trump with a need to find someone daft enough to post a bond for $550m. The queue is not long. If he can’t the appeals are over and the realisation of his assets begins. Even worse, this triggers default in all his other loans. As Robert points out this is one highly geared individual.

    This is really imminent. He has days to find this money or persuade an appellate court that the security should be less. The collapse of his business empire would, in my view, be a devastating blow to his image and credibility.

    I wonder if that's what the Musk meeting was about ?
    Well I can't think of anyone else who has the money and is stupid enough (see Musk's purchase of Twitter) to think lending money to Trump is a good idea.

    Either way Trump needs to find $550 or so in cash in the next week or so I can't see it happening.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484
    Nigelb said:

    Good morning

    The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing

    On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment

    Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate

    No grown up politics there then

    On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular..

    It's fairly clear how it's paid for; the balance of taxation has been shifted a bit from workers onto pensioners (and other non employment income).
    Average of around £1000 tax increase in pensioner taxpayers, I think.

    A sensible policy which the core vote might dislike when they wake up to it.

    Pensioners have done very well over the last 2 years with pension increases of 10.1% and 8.5% in April
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935
    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    I pay less tax than a nurse as a proportion of income because of our low rate of capital gains tax. But I'd like to pay even less, so we are going to lower it by another 4%.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,483
    Had the misfortune of catching the politics slot on GMB today, my wife likes GMB in the morning I'd watch Youtube personally.

    They had self absorbed MP Jess Phillips and former Scottish Tory Leader Ruth Davidson wittering as inanely as the usual occupants do but there, mainly, to plug their wittily named podcast, Electoral Dysfunction (geddit !!) a podcast which will appeal to centrist dad types (hi ScottXp and Ninja, right up your street) although with News Agents, Rest is Politics and a few others it is a crowded market.

    Fill your boots guys

    https://news.sky.com/story/electoral-dysfunction-a-new-podcast-from-sky-news-13065552
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,053
    edited March 7

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
    So just like in every conscription war of the past 70 years then.
    Yep, so "McNamara's Morons" go do the fighting while "Bone Spurs" Trump and "Asthma" Biden get to stay home.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    DavidL said:

    I think that Robert is underestimating the risks of the civil cases to Trump’s finances. Yes he has appealed both judgments but to pursue those appeals he needs to come up with bonds for the awards or other sufficient security. He can and has asked the courts to fix the security at lower levels. He has done this on the basis that he is so rich security is unnecessary and that his appeals are so obviously going to be successful that a lower amount is all that is necessary.

    So far, the courts have said “no” to these arguments leaving Trump with a need to find someone daft enough to post a bond for $550m. The queue is not long. If he can’t the appeals are over and the realisation of his assets begins. Even worse, this triggers default in all his other loans. As Robert points out this is one highly geared individual.

    This is really imminent. He has days to find this money or persuade an appellate court that the security should be less. The collapse of his business empire would, in my view, be a devastating blow to his image and credibility.

    100%. For his mob, Trump being seen as rubbish at business is worse than being seen as racist, or anti-democratic.

    Of course he is a rubbish businessman but that ain’t his narrative.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    edited March 7
    Bairstow's 100th test, so he'll probably be out shortly for a low score.

    Nice piece by Ramprakash, though.
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/05/jonny-bairstow-batter-england-100-caps-india-cricket

    Damn.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    Nigelb said:

    Bairstow's 100th test, so he'll probably be out shortly for a low score.

    Nice piece by Ramprakash, though.
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/05/jonny-bairstow-batter-england-100-caps-india-cricket

    Damn.

    You are the new DavidL.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    biggles said:

    100%. For his mob, Trump being seen as rubbish at business is worse than being seen as racist, or anti-democratic.

    Of course he is a rubbish businessman but that ain’t his narrative.

    That's the key, isn't it.

    He is rubbish, but his mob think he is great.

    Not obvious how to shift that dial.

    Even his empire collapsing wouldn't convince them he is rubbish, just persecuted...
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,053

    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    I pay less tax than a nurse as a proportion of income because of our low rate of capital gains tax. But I'd like to pay even less, so we are going to lower it by another 4%.

    The lower rate is only on properties that are not primary residences, so not much of Sunaks tax bill. Admittedly he does have several properties, so may save a few bob when he clears off after the election.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    DavidL said:

    And if you can’t get that from a Tory government what is the point?

    This is what you get from a Brexit government...
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that Robert is underestimating the risks of the civil cases to Trump’s finances. Yes he has appealed both judgments but to pursue those appeals he needs to come up with bonds for the awards or other sufficient security. He can and has asked the courts to fix the security at lower levels. He has done this on the basis that he is so rich security is unnecessary and that his appeals are so obviously going to be successful that a lower amount is all that is necessary.

    So far, the courts have said “no” to these arguments leaving Trump with a need to find someone daft enough to post a bond for $550m. The queue is not long. If he can’t the appeals are over and the realisation of his assets begins. Even worse, this triggers default in all his other loans. As Robert points out this is one highly geared individual.

    This is really imminent. He has days to find this money or persuade an appellate court that the security should be less. The collapse of his business empire would, in my view, be a devastating blow to his image and credibility.

    I wonder if that's what the Musk meeting was about ?
    Musk lost serious money buying Twitter. Would buying a once and future President be any better? It would give him enormous leverage.
    Either way, he’d have to take the meeting. Refuse to meet, and potentially piss off the next (very lunatic) President?

    My guess would be going for a vague can’t-help-you-right-now-but… bunch of flannel.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Nigelb said:

    Bairstow's 100th test, so he'll probably be out shortly for a low score.

    Nice piece by Ramprakash, though.
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/05/jonny-bairstow-batter-england-100-caps-india-cricket

    Damn.

    You are the new DavidL.
    I thought the reverse mockers was OK ... I should just have kept quiet.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    edited March 7
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    And if you can’t get that from a Tory government what is the point?

    This is what you get from a Brexit government...
    Ironically, apparently the VAT change was limited by EU regulations. You can’t alter VAT in Northern Ireland without taking account of those regulations, so the change was the maximum permissible.
    I’ve always felt, having been a small businessman, that the necessity to keep quarterly accounts for VAT was a benefit!
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Scott_xP said:

    biggles said:

    100%. For his mob, Trump being seen as rubbish at business is worse than being seen as racist, or anti-democratic.

    Of course he is a rubbish businessman but that ain’t his narrative.

    That's the key, isn't it.

    He is rubbish, but his mob think he is great.

    Not obvious how to shift that dial.

    Even his empire collapsing wouldn't convince them he is rubbish, just persecuted...
    He is the epitome of the old joke that it’s easy to have £1m, if you start with £2m.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,654
    The Tories may have to spend half the GE campaign trying to explain why scrapping NI wont destroy public services and take away the state pension from those who have worked hard all their lives and paid in.

    I see Reeves has already started this morning.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Nigelb said:

    Bairstow's 100th test, so he'll probably be out shortly for a low score.

    Nice piece by Ramprakash, though.
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/05/jonny-bairstow-batter-england-100-caps-india-cricket

    Damn.

    You are the new DavidL.
    Actually, it seems England that are doing this without my assistance.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    Deleted
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266

    Good morning

    The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing

    On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment

    Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate

    No grown up politics there then

    On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular

    It is grossly unfair on workers and equalising IT and NI into one tax is the right thing to do and would make work pay

    I also note labour are going to approve all the budget measures which does ask the question what are they going to do differently

    And finally the next election will follow Hunt's autumn statement and I would think 14th November may well be favourite

    SNP finally woke up and are plying the Westminster arses at their own game, they took their time.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    I think the rest of the world is waking up to the ongoing improvement in the Argentinian economy.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-black-market-peso-back-under-1000-milei-measures-spur-markets-2024-03-06/

    PBers will have known about this for a few weeks already though. I think if we do get a major success story out of Argentina over the next two years we're going to see a lot of push back from "Nobel prize winners" and other assorted "experts" telling us not to believe what we can see or that the real world experience there doesn't apply elsewhere for "reasons".
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,654
    Foxy said:

    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    I pay less tax than a nurse as a proportion of income because of our low rate of capital gains tax. But I'd like to pay even less, so we are going to lower it by another 4%.

    The lower rate is only on properties that are not primary residences, so not much of Sunaks tax bill. Admittedly he does have several properties, so may save a few bob when he clears off after the election.
    They got rid of lettings relief for landlords a few years ago and now bring it back a bit in the form of a CGT cut for non-primary residence.

    Clown show.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    The Tories may have to spend half the GE campaign trying to explain why scrapping NI wont destroy public services and take away the state pension from those who have worked hard all their lives and paid in.

    I see Reeves has already started this morning.

    It's amazing how a long overdue tax cut for workers is immediately and ludicrously rebadged as an attack on state pensions, which are fully protected and triple locked.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,483
    edited March 7
    MaxPB said:

    I think the rest of the world is waking up to the ongoing improvement in the Argentinian economy.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-black-market-peso-back-under-1000-milei-measures-spur-markets-2024-03-06/

    PBers will have known about this for a few weeks already though. I think if we do get a major success story out of Argentina over the next two years we're going to see a lot of push back from "Nobel prize winners" and other assorted "experts" telling us not to believe what we can see or that the real world experience there doesn't apply elsewhere for "reasons".

    These will be the same experts you see on social media blaming Millei for the high levels of inflation in Argentina.

    How long before it starts to come down, that will be interesting.
  • Options
    theProletheProle Posts: 953

    Good morning

    The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing

    On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment

    Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate

    No grown up politics there then

    On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular

    It is grossly unfair on workers and equalising IT and NI into one tax is the right thing to do and would make work pay

    I also note labour are going to approve all the budget measures which does ask the question what are they going to do differently

    And finally the next election will follow Hunt's autumn statement and I would think 14th November may well be favourite

    If the Tories had had half a brain, they would have abolished NI now, and put up income tax to compensate, with a stated aim of eventually getting income tax down some more. That way they could actually claim some tax simplification.

    It would also help solve the use of personal service companies to doge NI, so they could then abolish IR35 which is a significant barrier to growth.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Foxy said:

    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    I pay less tax than a nurse as a proportion of income because of our low rate of capital gains tax. But I'd like to pay even less, so we are going to lower it by another 4%.

    The lower rate is only on properties that are not primary residences, so not much of Sunaks tax bill. Admittedly he does have several properties, so may save a few bob when he clears off after the election.
    This is an example of leftwing populism: adopting a policy because it looks good, even if it costs revenue.

    Both HMT and the OBR agreed lowering the rate of CGT would result in more revenue to the exchequer.

    So a cut on that basis is logical and rational, even if its not populist.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    It's the Ukrainian CinC that has the arsehole about the numbers and wants the audit. What might be happening is concern over the quality of the conscriptees that make it to the front. He's getting lots of people that are too dim or poor to bribe their way into a rear echelon position.
    So just like in every conscription war of the past 70 years then.
    Yep, so "McNamara's Morons" go do the fighting while "Bone Spurs" Trump and "Asthma" Biden get to stay home.
    This has always been the case.

    You don't get your best men going into the infantry.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,334
    The reverse. The civil cases are largely irrelevant, certainly to swing voters and Trump is certainly robust enough to brush them off even with some cost to his bank balance.

    Each of the criminal counts he faces even on his false accounting case he starts later this month carries a maximum 4 year jail term and given his not guilty plea and lack of remorse the judge is highly unlikely to suspend that or put him on probation. The judge in his classified documents taking case also seems unlikely to delay it beyond July even if the SC rules he has immunity from the insurrection cases under his presidency.

    The exit polls were clear on Tuesday that independent voters could desert him if convicted at criminal trials
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the rest of the world is waking up to the ongoing improvement in the Argentinian economy.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-black-market-peso-back-under-1000-milei-measures-spur-markets-2024-03-06/

    PBers will have known about this for a few weeks already though. I think if we do get a major success story out of Argentina over the next two years we're going to see a lot of push back from "Nobel prize winners" and other assorted "experts" telling us not to believe what we can see or that the real world experience there doesn't apply elsewhere for "reasons".

    These will be the same experts you see on social media blaming Millei for the high levels of inflation in Argentina.

    How long before it starts to come down, that will be interesting.
    They're not going to be able to for much longer. If the currency keeps strengthening relative to the dollar inflation will fall quite rapidly now that global commodity prices have stabilised. I think that they may get to under 20% annual inflation within 8-12 months and under 10% within 18-20 months. That might seem high from our perspective but for Argentina it's historically pretty low.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    From Hunt's R4 interview this morning it sounds like I was right about the projected savings from the NHS It investment project being already taken in the government's spending forecast
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    Foxy said:

    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    I pay less tax than a nurse as a proportion of income because of our low rate of capital gains tax. But I'd like to pay even less, so we are going to lower it by another 4%.

    The lower rate is only on properties that are not primary residences, so not much of Sunaks tax bill. Admittedly he does have several properties, so may save a few bob when he clears off after the election.
    This is an example of leftwing populism: adopting a policy because it looks good, even if it costs revenue.

    Both HMT and the OBR agreed lowering the rate of CGT would result in more revenue to the exchequer.

    So a cut on that basis is logical and rational, even if its not populist.
    I think if it leads to more liquidity in the housing market it's definitely a good thing, though I'd have gone down the other route and just made rent and second home ownership less profitable/more costly to turn them into forced sellers and also put CGT on property up to income tax rates. Put the squeeze on property speculators on both sides.
  • Options
    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 789
    Taz said:

    Had the misfortune of catching the politics slot on GMB today, my wife likes GMB in the morning I'd watch Youtube personally.

    They had self absorbed MP Jess Phillips and former Scottish Tory Leader Ruth Davidson wittering as inanely as the usual occupants do but there, mainly, to plug their wittily named podcast, Electoral Dysfunction (geddit !!) a podcast which will appeal to centrist dad types (hi ScottXp and Ninja, right up your street) although with News Agents, Rest is Politics and a few others it is a crowded market.

    Fill your boots guys

    https://news.sky.com/story/electoral-dysfunction-a-new-podcast-from-sky-news-13065552

    I am very much enjoying Political Currency. A bit more politics than The Rest is Politics, which I have not listened to for a while since it got a bit boring with more whining than political analysis. I suspect that if we get a Labour Government it should get a bit more interesting.
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 823
    Is the assessment that the budget was reasonable from a political perspective?

    1) Shot the Labour non dom fox. This is why opposition parties don't announce too many policies before an election campaign or all the good ones get nicked.

    2) Creates a narrative around the NI cuts as the first steps of a journey to abolish employee NI under a hypothetical Tory government. Works better politically than the one-off change from the Autumn budget.

    Fiscally there are a whole load of made up numbers that have been fudged (tax rises that will never happen, spending cuts they will never make) but the electorate doesn't pay attention to that level of detail.

    I predict a small polling bounce unless new gremlins come out. In which case Sunak would be wise to have an election now before it's all forgotten and the narrative shifts to one of many government failures.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    MaxPB said:

    I think the rest of the world is waking up to the ongoing improvement in the Argentinian economy.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-black-market-peso-back-under-1000-milei-measures-spur-markets-2024-03-06/

    PBers will have known about this for a few weeks already though. I think if we do get a major success story out of Argentina over the next two years we're going to see a lot of push back from "Nobel prize winners" and other assorted "experts" telling us not to believe what we can see or that the real world experience there doesn't apply elsewhere for "reasons".

    It's because Milei isn't their cup of tea.

    Time and time again I see this. Like the ongoing love for Jacinda Ardern, even because she was crap, because she emoted a bit and was Woke.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,193
    edited March 7

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning

    The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing

    On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment

    Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate

    No grown up politics there then

    On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular..

    It's fairly clear how it's paid for; the balance of taxation has been shifted a bit from workers onto pensioners (and other non employment income).
    Average of around £1000 tax increase in pensioner taxpayers, I think.

    A sensible policy which the core vote might dislike when they wake up to it.

    Pensioners have done very well over the last 2 years with pension increases of 10.1% and 8.5% in April
    No, they haven't done very well in themselves. Those are neutral changes in the always rather poor UK state pension, and some of the costs pensioners have have gone up more than other inflation.

    The real issue is what is being done to working people.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,263
    Ratters said:

    Is the assessment that the budget was reasonable from a political perspective?

    1) Shot the Labour non dom fox. This is why opposition parties don't announce too many policies before an election campaign or all the good ones get nicked.

    2) Creates a narrative around the NI cuts as the first steps of a journey to abolish employee NI under a hypothetical Tory government. Works better politically than the one-off change from the Autumn budget.

    Fiscally there are a whole load of made up numbers that have been fudged (tax rises that will never happen, spending cuts they will never make) but the electorate doesn't pay attention to that level of detail.

    I predict a small polling bounce unless new gremlins come out. In which case Sunak would be wise to have an election now before it's all forgotten and the narrative shifts to one of many government failures.

    In other words, an election on 2 May? 👍
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,174
    theProle said:

    Good morning

    The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing

    On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment

    Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate

    No grown up politics there then

    On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular

    It is grossly unfair on workers and equalising IT and NI into one tax is the right thing to do and would make work pay

    I also note labour are going to approve all the budget measures which does ask the question what are they going to do differently

    And finally the next election will follow Hunt's autumn statement and I would think 14th November may well be favourite

    If the Tories had had half a brain, they would have abolished NI now, and put up income tax to compensate, with a stated aim of eventually getting income tax down some more. That way they could actually claim some tax simplification.

    It would also help solve the use of personal service companies to doge NI, so they could then abolish IR35 which is a significant barrier to growth.
    The issue with IR35 is around Employer NI, rather than employee NI.

    Employer NI is a nightmare to abolish, because most people don’t experience it directly yet it raises £100bn.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Sandpit said:

    theProle said:

    Good morning

    The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing

    On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment

    Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate

    No grown up politics there then

    On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular

    It is grossly unfair on workers and equalising IT and NI into one tax is the right thing to do and would make work pay

    I also note labour are going to approve all the budget measures which does ask the question what are they going to do differently

    And finally the next election will follow Hunt's autumn statement and I would think 14th November may well be favourite

    If the Tories had had half a brain, they would have abolished NI now, and put up income tax to compensate, with a stated aim of eventually getting income tax down some more. That way they could actually claim some tax simplification.

    It would also help solve the use of personal service companies to doge NI, so they could then abolish IR35 which is a significant barrier to growth.
    The issue with IR35 is around Employer NI, rather than employee NI.

    Employer NI is a nightmare to abolish, because most people don’t experience it directly yet it raises £100bn.
    If Employers paid the 13.8% of NI they pay into government into employees pensions instead then everyone would have amazing private pension pots.
This discussion has been closed.