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Trump’s Chances – Part 1 – politicalbetting.com
Trump’s Chances – Part 1 – politicalbetting.com
This is a three part piece. The first, today, looks at the existential threats that Trump faces that could derail him. The second looks at the national polling, at the third party challengers, and how parties have been performing in real elections. And the final piece looks at the swing states and what is happening on the ground.
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On the money I'd have thought the Saudis would help him out? He already took a massive bribe from them via his son-and-law and the voters don't seem to have cared.
PS Should there be a link attached to "this guy"?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68493215
As others have pointed out, your original point was bogus. Another factor will be training time: lots of people will have been mobilised, but will still be in the training pipelines - on both sides, though Russia apparently seems keen to just chuck people into the battle without much training.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370140
..To implement LLMs typically utilized in generative AI tasks, a substantial number of graphic processing units (GPUs) and 250 watts of power are typically required. However, the KAIST research team managed to implement the language model using a compact AI chip measuring just 4.5 millimeters by 4.5 millimeters.
"Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement, and we are proud to be the first in the world to run the LLM with a low-power neuromorphic accelerator," Yoo said...
..The research team said this semiconductor uses only 1/625 of the power and is only 1/41 the size of Nvidia's GPU for the same tasks.
As the research chip was produced with a 28nm feature size, any commercial products ought to be significantly more efficient.
Just to confirm that's not a typo - Labour is supporting every single measure.
Most supplies of US kit have slowed down or simply stopped.
But as ever, I'd exercise caution. Wait until people without skin in the game get hold of samples.
Steve Furber (one of the designers of the ARM chip), did this at Manchester:
https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/human-brain-supercomputer-with-1million-processors-switched-on-for-first-time/
If this proves a practical product, it might remove the chip bottleneck which allows them such high margins in their chips.
Apart from anything else, the physical size is an order of magnitude smaller - and if it can be fabbed on older lines, then that also has interesting implications.
Max Verstappen backs father Jos after criticism of Red Bull chief Horner
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/max-verstappen-stands-by-father-following-claims-red-bull-could-explode-if-christian-horner-stays-formula-one
Labour will attempt to ramp token, cosmetic policy differences between itself and the Tories at the election, but their basic pitch is going to be delivering Conservatism less incompetently than the Conservatives. That's it. No ambition, no imagination, and no interest in actually achieving anything. They just want their turn with the train set, and have concluded that the best way to get it is to reassure the winners from the current system that nothing of substance will change at all. And people wonder why politicians aren't respected or valued, when they go to such lengths to make themselves irrelevant and worthless.
Labour supports Tories = bad
That backstory should be mentioned whenever his gurning mug appears on TV.
At 28nm, I wouldn't expect too many production issues, compared to the cutting-edge Nvidia potatoes (they're too big to be called 'chips' any more...), but there are many other issues that can cripple a chip or approach.
As an example of hype, above it says: "Neuromorphic computing is a technology that even companies like IBM and Intel have not been able to implement"
As I showed with my link, it has been done. Not necessarily on a chip, but that's not what he claimed.
Beware the hype.
But I'll file that under 'not happening.'
1) Which 'guy' spent 15 months in prison? I think there's a link missing.
2) What about if he can't appeal the Carroll award (assuming, for the moment, he won't be able to appeal the other) due to lack of cash? What then?
I was just helping my partner with a job application and noted "too much fluff, but this is way better than your usual writing, well done!".
Turns out it was ChatGPT and now I'm cooking dinner, doing a clothes wash and indexing her bike gears in penance.
Jack: You're crazy! You're f***in' crazy!
Howard Payne: NO! Poor people are crazy, Jack. I'm eccentric.
The spokesperson added: "The secretary of state received the appropriate advice from relevant officials at all times.
Seems a bit odd that officials would pass off something libellous though tbh - whichever official gave the advice that her letter/article was OK should probably face the chop.
But is that what ACTUALLY happened. Hmm....................
I can see some point in long term planning, but as much depends on how the economy grows or shrinks, these forward projections are nonsense, just a way of tying the hands of future chancellors. Not that the plans are immutable, but that just makes the projections even more meaningless.
The real problem for Labour is the spending round. The planned spending cuts financed by imaginary productivity and efficiency savings are a work of fiction and everybody knows it.
https://www.google.com/search?q=nvidia+share+price
Incidentally, ARM has been doing rather well recently, for similar reasons. Its shares have essentially doubled in value over the last month.
Let's all board the hype train, baby!
Better to stick to fictional stories of primary school pupils identifying as cats.
I would interpret the spokesperson’s quote as meaning: “The politician did stupid things. Her officials gave her the correct advice, so anything she did wrong is on her.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Pacific_Grand_Prix
Whether Senna was right or wrong, it clearly got to him and contributed to his attitude at Imola.
He writes some seriously interesting stuff.
An attention span of 12-18 months on any new "big thing" is about par for the course, now.
Otherwise it's a route to bankruptcy, and almost certainly an overreaction because unless you are quite famous/well known it's hard to show your reputation has been seriously damaged.
The fact Trump has any chance is deeply disturbing
On the budget, after Hunt concluded Starmer was ready for an immediate response, but when Eleanor Laing asked for approval on what is normally given , the SNP loudly said no and even though Laing asked again they repeated the 'no' resulting in a needless division and Starmer having to wait 20 minutes, interrupting the media coverage of Starmer's reply and frankly diluting the moment
Looks like the SNP are going to disrupt proceedings as much as possible as a protest over Speaker Hoyle's error over the Gaza debate
No grown up politics there then
On the budget it was sensible and political and the big story is undoubtedly the ending of NI in time. It is something @BartholomewRoberts has been campaigning for and others and seems to have Labour demanding to know how it is paid for, which indicates they had not given it thought and are worried it would be popular
It is grossly unfair on workers and equalising IT and NI into one tax is the right thing to do and would make work pay
I also note labour are going to approve all the budget measures which does ask the question what are they going to do differently
And finally the next election will follow Hunt's autumn statement and I would think 14th November may well be favourite
It seems the minister has got off with a slap on the wrist.
What a parcel of rogues in a nation.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2024/mar/06/tory-peer-jacqueline-foster-pays-damages-university-challenge
Which is why this is being paid for by the government and the whole thing vanishing like a fart.
If it was the minister on her own, necktie party. But a senior official fucked up, and it would be so unfair if he/she didn’t get their next K….
The Resolution Foundation pointed out that the pre election tax cuts are a bit of a con, as there's £19bn of tax increase already baked in after the next election.
The OBR guy had a good point about the difficulty of forecasting. They get fairly detailed tax plans from government - but literally zero detail other, than the single headline government spending figure, for departmental spending plans.
Hunt has in this budget awarded himself £20bn of future cuts in his planning, without a single inkling of how this will be delivered.
I think the regular criticisms of OBR forecasts are to great extent based on a poor understanding of what is possible.
Which comes into greater counterpoint when you contrast with the strategy of the Republican opposition in the US….
I expect both to make it. I'd also expect Trump to use the powers of office to help, err, "restore" any losses he might have suffered.
The appropriate advice might well have been, “what you say as a campaigning party politician on Twitter is up to you, and not our business”. Or it might have been “I wouldn’t do that, if I were you”.
So far, the courts have said “no” to these arguments leaving Trump with a need to find someone daft enough to post a bond for $550m. The queue is not long. If he can’t the appeals are over and the realisation of his assets begins. Even worse, this triggers default in all his other loans. As Robert points out this is one highly geared individual.
This is really imminent. He has days to find this money or persuade an appellate court that the security should be less. The collapse of his business empire would, in my view, be a devastating blow to his image and credibility.
Average of around £1000 tax increase in pensioner taxpayers, I think.
A sensible policy which the core vote might dislike when they wake up to it.
There is no point (discussing the individual measures in the budget). You might as well worry about the window boxes on a house that has half fallen into the sea.
Whoever wins in the next twelve months will look at the books and do lots of nasty stuff in the post-election budget. Stuff that won't be in any manifesto.
It's bad that Labour are doing it, but unforgivable that a government, a Conservative government is doing so.
It was dispiriting to hear in the budget yesterday that 2.5% of GDP for defence was an aspiration for when economic circumstances allow, as though it was a nice to have that a rich country could indulge in. Completely arse about face.
There will come a point where NVIDIA moves from being a growth stock to just another stock and the value relative to earnings will come back however at the moment it is backing up the hype by delivering the numbers.
At time it might have been as low as 20%.
Either way Trump needs to find $550 or so in cash in the next week or so I can't see it happening.
@Parody_PM
I pay less tax than a nurse as a proportion of income because of our low rate of capital gains tax. But I'd like to pay even less, so we are going to lower it by another 4%.
They had self absorbed MP Jess Phillips and former Scottish Tory Leader Ruth Davidson wittering as inanely as the usual occupants do but there, mainly, to plug their wittily named podcast, Electoral Dysfunction (geddit !!) a podcast which will appeal to centrist dad types (hi ScottXp and Ninja, right up your street) although with News Agents, Rest is Politics and a few others it is a crowded market.
Fill your boots guys
https://news.sky.com/story/electoral-dysfunction-a-new-podcast-from-sky-news-13065552
Of course he is a rubbish businessman but that ain’t his narrative.
Nice piece by Ramprakash, though.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/05/jonny-bairstow-batter-england-100-caps-india-cricket
Damn.
It makes me nostalgic for Brown’s never ending fiscal cycle over which he was to balance the books. Indeed it makes that look reasonable. What it is not is a serious policy to control our finances. And if you can’t get that from a Tory government what is the point?
He is rubbish, but his mob think he is great.
Not obvious how to shift that dial.
Even his empire collapsing wouldn't convince them he is rubbish, just persecuted...
My guess would be going for a vague can’t-help-you-right-now-but… bunch of flannel.
I’ve always felt, having been a small businessman, that the necessity to keep quarterly accounts for VAT was a benefit!
I see Reeves has already started this morning.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-black-market-peso-back-under-1000-milei-measures-spur-markets-2024-03-06/
PBers will have known about this for a few weeks already though. I think if we do get a major success story out of Argentina over the next two years we're going to see a lot of push back from "Nobel prize winners" and other assorted "experts" telling us not to believe what we can see or that the real world experience there doesn't apply elsewhere for "reasons".
Clown show.
How long before it starts to come down, that will be interesting.
It would also help solve the use of personal service companies to doge NI, so they could then abolish IR35 which is a significant barrier to growth.
Both HMT and the OBR agreed lowering the rate of CGT would result in more revenue to the exchequer.
So a cut on that basis is logical and rational, even if its not populist.
You don't get your best men going into the infantry.
Each of the criminal counts he faces even on his false accounting case he starts later this month carries a maximum 4 year jail term and given his not guilty plea and lack of remorse the judge is highly unlikely to suspend that or put him on probation. The judge in his classified documents taking case also seems unlikely to delay it beyond July even if the SC rules he has immunity from the insurrection cases under his presidency.
The exit polls were clear on Tuesday that independent voters could desert him if convicted at criminal trials
1) Shot the Labour non dom fox. This is why opposition parties don't announce too many policies before an election campaign or all the good ones get nicked.
2) Creates a narrative around the NI cuts as the first steps of a journey to abolish employee NI under a hypothetical Tory government. Works better politically than the one-off change from the Autumn budget.
Fiscally there are a whole load of made up numbers that have been fudged (tax rises that will never happen, spending cuts they will never make) but the electorate doesn't pay attention to that level of detail.
I predict a small polling bounce unless new gremlins come out. In which case Sunak would be wise to have an election now before it's all forgotten and the narrative shifts to one of many government failures.
Time and time again I see this. Like the ongoing love for Jacinda Ardern, even because she was crap, because she emoted a bit and was Woke.
The real issue is what is being done to working people.
Employer NI is a nightmare to abolish, because most people don’t experience it directly yet it raises £100bn.