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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Scotland rejects independence it will be because Scottis

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    If I am right, then we might conclude the Cypriot Government overplayed its hand badly and the EU has played it to a nicety, but it's early days yet.

    The first part I agree with. The problem with the EU is the perception they are ok with bank raids won't go away. That won't matter unless it looks like another country will need a bailout - then the rational thing for an individual would be to get their money out of Dodge as fast as possible. This becomes a self-reinforcing trend
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JackW said:



    Free the "Plato One" from the tyrany of second class vanila membership !!

    Shurely you mean 'plain vanilla' membership...?

    (I'll get me coat)

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    @Charles

    Yes, I agree Charles, and I am sure that is a very real risk.

    It's such an obvious one that you have to believe it was considered in advance and thought worth taking.

    We'll just have to see how it pans out.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,312
    edited March 2013


    If I am right, then we might conclude ... the EU has played it to a nicety, but it's early days yet.

    Yes, too early to say, let's see if there are repercussions in the PIGS or elsewhere.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @tim:
    Truly. I have notations of all my bets and the persons owed and the dates and even the times they occured. I know I did not bet on 4 year parliaments.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    Cyprus: What is curious is how the Russian saviour option went down the tubes at speed. I had a feeling it wouldn't come off either on the Cypriot government side and that the Russians would not bite anyway (the regional geo-politics alone were a real flammable cocktail) but the idea refused to die.

    Many Cypriots liked the Russian's coming and bailing them out idea but clearly the Russians did not. It isn't clear yet why the Russians didn't buy in unless they are simply waiting buy up some of the mess by indirect means.

    Do we know for certain whether the Russians supply gas to Germany?

    There seems to be this idea that the Russians can hold Europe to ransom. They can try but they won't.

    But have to dash, I'm about to try what can be best described as urban cross country running in the snow, just for the amusement value.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    tim said:

    NicholasWatt

    Now people will see why PM has such a serene smile when Boris Johnson seen as only serious successor. PM knows all the stories #MarrShow


    Only morons saw Boris as the likely, never mind only, successor

    Gove will have to find another star to hitch his wagon to. And he may not be the only one.

    'That sound? It’s Tory backbenchers climbing off the Boris Bandwagon' markferguson

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,444
    SeanT said:

    AN1 I agree with most of your depressing analysis, but I would focus more on the positive upside of cheap energy. This is now almost certain to happen: we are discovering more hydrocarbons, and more ways to mine and burn them, than ever before in history.

    http://www.thegwpf.org/matt-ridley-burnable-ice-set-wnergy-world-fire/

    I believe this will save the western economies - esp Europe - in about 10-20 years, as a huge boom lifts every boat on a rising tide. But until then there will be just a lot of pain. Expect a hardline UKIP-Tory govt in 2020 or before.

    Cheaper and more secure energy might save western economies but only if they make use of it.

    At the moment the UK political establishment is choosing to make our energy both more expensive and less secure.

    With the consequent damage to our ability to compete.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,404
    Y0kel said:

    It isn't clear yet why the Russians didn't buy in unless they are simply waiting buy up some of the mess by indirect means.

    Russia's pretty isolationist at the moment and I suspect they just rolled their eyes at the idea of getting into the Cyprus mess.

    Vaguely related comment: if anyone else is interested in the cross-currents of wartime Europe, can I recommend Alan Furst? I discovered him recently and am currently going through the wonderful Dark Star - early read the two-parter The World at Night and Red Gold. It's basically Le Carre with real politics and real people (which IMO le Carre is not). The Dark Star protagonists are very familiar from my mother's family - Russian emigres torn between fear of Stalin and hatred of the Nazis - and ring exactly true. The books are darkly evocative of an era which is disappearing from living memory.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    It's such an obvious [risk] that you have to believe it was considered in advance and thought worth taking.

    We'll just have to see how it pans out.

    Actually, it probably wasn't properly considered. The Eurocrats are firefighting; basically trying to make the maths add up when it doesn't (and won't without explicit contributions from Germany). So they go with any solution that seems good without considering the implications.

    AFAIU, the Eurocrats suggested >Eur100,000 [hit those pesky Russians and wipe out an offshore banking haven], the Cypriots wanted a contribution from everyone to preserve their relationship with the Russians and the Euros couldn't think of an argument against it (even though it undermines the principal of a deposit guarantee)
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Thanks for all the support and thank to my son, Robert, for all he's done.

    I've put a donation button up.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike S.

    Perhaps you might consider a "Donate" facility next to the new "Quote" one ?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Just made a donation Mike. Hope it helps
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    JackW said:

    Mike S.

    Perhaps you might consider a "Donate" facility next to the new "Quote" one ?

    Perhaps, Jack, he might also add a second button for those wishing to contribute to your wig renewal fund.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,169
    edited March 2013
    Now you're sounding like a Tory again!

    You're absolutely right, of course. We've been working with a great programme of storytelling to encourage children's imagination and engagement with art - seeing some fantastic results, but this is definitely outside the 'approved' structure


    I wish it were Tory policy to give teachers the freedom to teach. Gove pays lip service to it, but until he tackles the Ofsted culture and stops trying to micro manage the curriculum words are all he will be spouting.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Admin -- the browser search function on Chrome is discombobulated. It finds and highlights but does not jump to the sought text. IE and Firefox behave normally.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,240
    As Tesco say every little helps ^_^
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013
    I see the BBC is now wedging chunks of pro-immigration articles from the Observer into its news articles:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21914540

    Why the hell are the views of some minor bishop relevant?
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    @Charles

    Yes, I'm not general disposed towards overestimating the intelligence and foresight of Eurocrats, and you may be right.

    However, on this occasion I'm inclined to think that they did not miss the blindingly obvious, and quite possibly showed a little shrewdness and foresite.

    Possibly.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    I see Weathercock is resurrected as MikeK , he still owes me some money .
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Mike S.

    Perhaps you might consider a "Donate" facility next to the new "Quote" one ?

    Perhaps, Jack, he might also add a second button for those wishing to contribute to your wig renewal fund.
    You're confusing me with a certain Bedford resident noted for distinct yellow perilist tendencies and a penchant for wagering the odd shilling on political events.



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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    @Charles

    Yes, I'm not general disposed towards overestimating the intelligence and foresight of Eurocrats, and you may be right.

    Generally people living in a bubble of unquestioning group think tend to have their critical thinking be a bit rusty.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    Fop down. Fop down.

    I see the prejudicial slurs are back again. Would we tolerate these in the case of religion or race? Why do we accept them for social class?
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    Amazing how much of a threat Labour/BBC feel Boris is. No possibility of him fighting the next general election yet, such is the concern about him, that they are prepared to rip up any pretence of impartiality with questions such "isn't it true you are just a nasty piece of work". I will be long in my grave before any Labour politician is ever asked that on the BBC
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    @PeterThePunter

    Putin refused to intervene to save Cyprus, because it was not in the interests of the Russian state and Putin to save Cyprus.

    Money leaving Russia was not under Putin's control. He wants to discourage capital flight. Allowing the bank accounts of his political enemies (more accurately rivals) to be docked abroad worked entirely in his favour.

    This was much more important to him than a military base (of dubious value) in Cyrpus.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013
    @tim "Thrice daily"

    You bring up this subject more than I do. By your count, I would do it 21 times in the last week. When did I raise the topic of Muslims in the last week?

    There's an easy way to tell a bigot: they commonly use pejoratives based on someone's background. As a moral person, I find this ugly intolerance and never do it. You, however, do it regularly, and it's about time someone called you on it. All that it takes for hate to prosper is for good people to say nothing.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    I see the Broker's Men are gathering with a vengeance, wielding their baseball bats - the usual suspects I'm afraid.

    A bit like Eddie Mair with his uncalled-for personal attack on Boris this morning - was that scripted by the Beeb or was it Eddie showing his own political bias?
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    Can we just drop the Andrew Marr show altogether and have the Eddie Mair show?
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    Financier said:

    A bit like Eddie Mair with his uncalled-for personal attack on Boris this morning - was that scripted by the Beeb or was it Eddie showing his own political bias?

    There was no 'attack'. There was a series of questions, that Boris, apparently, couldn't answer.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Can we just drop the Andrew Marr show altogether and have the Eddie Mair show?

    Absolutely.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,150
    Post-race analysis of an interesting Malaysian Grand Prix is up here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Financier said:

    ..... Eddie Mair with his uncalled-for personal attack on Boris this morning - was that scripted by the Beeb or was it Eddie showing his own political bias?

    No - he was doing what a good journalist should do.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Park_Town_Boy There was a series of questions chosen to reflect every controversy over the course of Johnson's career. If you can point me to a time when he did the same thing to a Labour politician, I will concede it was not biased.
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    @RCS

    That makes perfect sense, Robert, and provides a geo-political subtext consistent with the more obvious economic manoeuvres..

    Yes, of course the Russians would not want a Cyprus military base, even if the EU and US allowed it, which they certainly would not.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Socrates said:

    @tim "Thrice daily"

    You bring up this subject more than I do. By your count, I would do it 21 times in the last week. When did I raise the topic of Muslims in the last week?

    There's an easy way to tell a bigot: they commonly use pejoratives based on someone's background. As a moral person, I find this ugly intolerance and never do it. You, however, do it regularly, and it's about time someone called you on it. All that it takes for hate to prosper is for good people to say nothing.

    Socrates, a while ago I pointed out that generally the prolific lefties tend to use (in transactional analysis terms) child referents. These include slang, insults, and 'tit for tat' ripostes. I did try highlighting this for all of about 90 minutes but got overwhelmed. I think referring to this type of behaviour as bigoted, although correct, is a little wide of the mark as I don't think the language used is chosen to be bigoted, just to make a child type response.
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    Socrates said:

    @Park_Town_Boy There was a series of questions chosen to reflect every controversy over the course of Johnson's career. If you can point me to a time when he did the same thing to a Labour politician, I will concede it was not biased.

    Well the most obvious example of that is Ken Livingstone who had exactly the same treatment.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:

    Expect a hardline UKIP-Tory govt in 2020 or before.

    Two problems with that coalition: both of them Europe.

    First, many votes for UKIP are protest votes for None Of The Above, not anti-EU votes. Of course, one sign of political maturity is a willingness to sell out your voters, so perhaps that is not a major consideration.

    More important is that most Conservatives are pro-Europe. Historically, Labour was the more sceptical party. Gordon Brown kept us out of the Euro; Jim Callaghan kept us out of its precursor, the snake.

    You could make that the basis of your first political thriller. Callaghan and Brown: neither went to Oxford; both were short-term Prime Ministers, forced out by a pro-EU blob. Callaghan's "crisis, what crisis?" Caribbean summit will need extensive, in-depth research.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013
    Blue_rog said:

    I think referring to this type of behaviour as bigoted, although correct, is a little wide of the mark as I don't think the language used is chosen to be bigoted, just to make a child type response.

    The problem with bigotry is that it just spills out in all its ugliness without conscious choice. Most of the left-wingers on here are decent people who don't do such things, but when it is done it needs to be condemned. Imagine if a gay politician flubbed an interview and a poster remarked "homo down, homo down", or if an Latin-descended politician did the same and someone said "dago down, dago down". Like race and sexuality, people can not choose what family they are born into, and using derogatory terms for them based on such things is unacceptable.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Admin -- the browser search function on Chrome is discombobulated. It finds and highlights but does not jump to the sought text. IE and Firefox behave normally.

    Nor does the quote function work in Chrome.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Post-race analysis of an interesting Malaysian Grand Prix is up here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html

    MD

    Thank you for your analysis. Do you know why Perez lost points by getting new boots with only two laps to go? Also how will Red Bull deal with Vittel for disobeying team orders and nearly wiping both cars off the track?
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Socrates said:

    @Park_Town_Boy There was a series of questions chosen to reflect every controversy over the course of Johnson's career. If you can point me to a time when he did the same thing to a Labour politician, I will concede it was not biased.

    You'll never convince Socrates PTB

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    "This happened in your life, so you know about this." - excellent line to stop Boris' avoidance tactics.
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    SeanT said:

    Expect a hardline UKIP-Tory govt in 2020 or before.

    More important is that most Conservatives are pro-Europe.
    The only one who is pro-EU/Brussels is Ken Clarke!
    Pro Common Market - ONLY - around 65%
    Anti any relationship, favouring Commonwealth and NAFTA membership (or similar) - 35%

    The initial support for Brussels ended in 1979 - until then, it was thought to be a brake on the madness of the 1963-1979 period of Govt.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Financier said:


    Also how will Red Bull deal with Vittel for disobeying team orders and nearly wiping both cars off the track?

    Give him a pay rise, I expect. Red Bull needs Vettel more than he needs them. The realpolitik is that Vettel is the most talented driver of his generation.
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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    if someone is offering you 5% (whether Icesave or Bank of Cyprus), you should be suspicious.

    My bank offers 0.1% and blames the Bank of England when you complain.

    Does that make them conservative or just plain mean?
    Rabobank offered 6.25% last year in Oz, ING 6% and both still offer over 5% if they hold funds for 12 months. Far better than 0.1%.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AN1 said:

    The initial support for Brussels ended in 1979 - until then, it was thought to be a brake on the madness of the 1963-1979 period of Govt.

    Post-1979 Conservative governments signed the Single European Act and Maastricht Treaty, shadowed the DM and joined the ERM.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,150
    Thanks, Mr. Financier. In response to that question I believe Perez didn't lose any points, because he was already 9th and there was an enormous gap to the driver behind. New tyres may've been fitted as a precaution.
    Financier said:

    Post-race analysis of an interesting Malaysian Grand Prix is up here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html

    MD

    Thank you for your analysis. Do you know why Perez lost points by getting new boots with only two laps to go? Also how will Red Bull deal with Vittel for disobeying team orders and nearly wiping both cars off the track?
    He blatantly disobeyed a team order and if Webber had not turned down his engine he may've kept the win. A fine would be pretty meaningless, a public apology wouldn't change the points back. Hard to know of a fitting punishment.
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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    SeanT said:

    Anyone peeved by my overt gallivanting around the Maldives might be pleased to hear that I am about to spend the night, alone, on a desert island.

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/315781266001764353/photo/1

    A luxury, 6 star desert island with full spa facilities: but totally alone, nonetheless. My private chef and attending staff will be anchored a kilometre offshore.

    I'm not joking. My absurd-o-meter just went off the dial.

    Sounds terrible, no way to see Sky Sports 4 and watch the Hong Kong 7's final with Fiji and Wales would make that isolation unacceptable as an option.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    @Park_Town_Boy There was a series of questions chosen to reflect every controversy over the course of Johnson's career. If you can point me to a time when he did the same thing to a Labour politician, I will concede it was not biased.

    Well the most obvious example of that is Ken Livingstone who had exactly the same treatment.
    Do you have a link?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    @Mike Smithson: A small donation is on its way.
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    Post-1979 Conservative governments signed the Single European Act and Maastricht Treaty, shadowed the DM and joined the ERM.

    Yeah, but to be fair, Decrepit, apart from that they were pretty Anti-EU.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013



    You'll never convince Socrates PTB

    I'm one of the few posters on here that will say "that's a fair point" or "you make a persuasive case", before going away and reconsidering my view. In this particular case, I've even specified the precise evidence that can be provided for me to change my mind. That's called falsifiability.

    I'm certainly a far cry from, for example, europhiles, who can see their project cause millions upon millions of job losses, and they still won't think the single currency is a mistake.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Anyone peeved by my overt gallivanting around the Maldives might be pleased to hear that I am about to spend the night, alone, on a desert island.

    Why does the word "nouveau riche" come to mind ?

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:


    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/315781266001764353/photo/1

    A luxury, 6 star desert island with full spa facilities: but totally alone, nonetheless. My private chef and attending staff will be anchored a kilometre offshore.

    The Piers Morgan programme on Cliff Richard showed the star's similar paradise retreat with its bedroom looking out over the Caribbean. Surely those of us who can walk round Tesco without being mobbed or papped would find the isolation maddening?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    He blatantly disobeyed a team order and if Webber had not turned down his engine he may've kept the win. A fine would be pretty meaningless, a public apology wouldn't change the points back. Hard to know of a fitting punishment.

    Just a test
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Boris if you missed it (Dave...):

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21916385#TWEET683139
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549


    Post-1979 Conservative governments signed the Single European Act and Maastricht Treaty, shadowed the DM and joined the ERM.

    You could add that a Conservative government joined the EEC without a referendum. That treaty already included the principle of free movement of people within the EEC.

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    surbiton said:



    You could add that a Conservative government joined the EEC without a referendum. That treaty already included the principle of free movement of people within the EEC.

    Yeah, but apart from all that....
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    @Decrepit

    He also has...or rather had ...Mr Berezovsky as a neighbour. Now who would want that?
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2013

    AN1 said:

    The initial support for Brussels ended in 1979 - until then, it was thought to be a brake on the madness of the 1963-1979 period of Govt.

    Post-1979 Conservative governments signed the Single European Act and Maastricht Treaty, shadowed the DM and joined the ERM.
    At that time the Westminster Con Party were divided, Labour were pro, so Maggie could not have rejected such Treaties and survived. A PM of either/any shade proposing the Lisbon Treaty (let alone SEA/Maastricht) today would lose a HoC vote by 150-200 votes.

    The EU has no friends outside the extreme left 'Internationale-singing' wing of UK politics: the LDs (in Westminster - their membership/voters are deeply divided on the issue) and a neo-Marxist element within Labour.

    It's such a deeply, deeply unpopular institution, as people realise that the more regulation you have, the less competitive you are with the BRICS: whatever made sense (just to a few deluded and embittered post WW2 politicians) in 1955 as a protectionist trade block to counter the US, it makes absolutely zero sense in a globalised world of Tree Trade: indeed, it's probably inflicted more poverty on Third World countries through the CAP than any other institution since 1960.

    No-one objects to the freedom to fly, holiday, buy and trade within the EU - indeed, we've all ensured no European war *precisely* because of this aspect of modern capitalism and the more we travel and trade *globally* the more the nonsense of the EU regulations becomes obvious.

    SeanT is the most powerful advocate of where the economic power has moved in recent decades - eastwards - and there's no point in digging a deeper and deeper hole when we're in one. It's why the politicians are so divorced from the people they purport to represent, and that's always been a recipe for revolution (or the overthrow of The Establishment). We're in very, very dangerous political waters at the moment, since the those who rule over us have disconnected from those whom they serve.

    Indeed, they see US as serving THEM - which is completely the inverse of what is safe and stable - not to mention effective, efficient and popular: they are 'the servants of the people', which is why the 'web/Internet is going to change (indeed, has already changed) the way we are governed so profoundly.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    surbiton said:

    @Mike Smithson: A small donation is on its way.

    Thank you and to others, incuding lurkers, who are helping.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    surbiton said:


    Post-1979 Conservative governments signed the Single European Act and Maastricht Treaty, shadowed the DM and joined the ERM.

    You could add that a Conservative government joined the EEC without a referendum. That treaty already included the principle of free movement of people within the EEC.

    It's a bit different having free movement of people with other developed countries and having it with developing countries. The big mistake made in those years was agreeing to sign up to a closed trade bloc.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There seem to be rumours flying around that President Assad is dead.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited March 2013
    antifrank said:

    There seem to be rumours flying around that President Assad is dead.

    Yep have seen those. Shot by a bodyguard being claimed.*

    *Edit: denied by family.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    antifrank said:

    There seem to be rumours flying around that President Assad is dead.

    Paddy Power offering 9/4 that he wont be President of Syria on 1 July...
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,444
    surbiton said:


    Post-1979 Conservative governments signed the Single European Act and Maastricht Treaty, shadowed the DM and joined the ERM.

    You could add that a Conservative government joined the EEC without a referendum. That treaty already included the principle of free movement of people within the EEC.

    But a million French and Germans didn't migrate to the UK after 1973 and put downward pressure on British pay and upward pressure on British living costs did they?

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013
    antifrank said:

    There seem to be rumours flying around that President Assad is dead.

    Please let this be true.

    EDIT: Eeek. I've just realised tim is going to count this post as me "going on about Muslims". Rats.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Neil said:



    Paddy Power offering 9/4 that he wont be President of Syria on 1 July...

    Ha, in to 7/4 already. How strong are these rumours? ;)
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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    @Surbiton.

    Sean Cladding


    Weather, London, 24 March; 0C, "Freezing Drizzle".

    Weather, Maldives, now:

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/315710549239414784/photo/1

    Heh.



    Looks nice. But in Oz we hanker for winter as all that sun and sand and sea frankly gets a bit boring after a while. Oh for a day below 20C.....

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013

    Socrates said:

    @Park_Town_Boy There was a series of questions chosen to reflect every controversy over the course of Johnson's career. If you can point me to a time when he did the same thing to a Labour politician, I will concede it was not biased.

    You'll never convince Socrates PTB

    I see a link still hasn't been provided. You're quite right that I won't be convinced without any evidence.
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,065
    Test
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    What do you pack for a desert island?

    Discs, obviously.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited March 2013
    Ive seen one report that I would consider to in anyway have legitimacy on the Assad death rumour.

    So far the people that have significant reliability haven't run with it.

    I'd rather wait, because if he's dead, it wont matter if we have it confirmed in an hour or ten hours, he'll still be dead.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Y0kel said:


    I'd rather wait, because if he's dead, it wont matter if we have it confirmed in an hour or ten hours, he'll still be dead.

    The Paddy Power odds will be a bit stingier after it's confirmed ;)

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    Socrates said:

    surbiton said:


    Post-1979 Conservative governments signed the Single European Act and Maastricht Treaty, shadowed the DM and joined the ERM.

    You could add that a Conservative government joined the EEC without a referendum. That treaty already included the principle of free movement of people within the EEC.

    It's a bit different having free movement of people with other developed countries and having it with developing countries. The big mistake made in those years was agreeing to sign up to a closed trade bloc.

    Although, at that time, Portugal, Spain and Ireland were certainly developing countries by any standard. Ireland's per capita GDP in 1975 was just $2,800; Portugal was just $2,000.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Neil said:

    Y0kel said:


    I'd rather wait, because if he's dead, it wont matter if we have it confirmed in an hour or ten hours, he'll still be dead.

    The Paddy Power odds will be a bit stingier after it's confirmed ;)

    I already had a series of Intrades on him ceasing to be in power then Intrade decided to suspend itself.....as it is I'm out of the country later this week and wont have internet access for stretches so I have alternative arrangements to keep as up to date as I can.

    If he did die is such a circumstance was it a rogue hit or the palace coup that the West has been working on for months on months?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    According the World Bank, Cyprus has the highest level of corporate and personal debt to GDP in the world (c. 300% of GDP). Hard to see how to resolve this without depositors taking some kind of hit.

    I've not seen anyone propose anything that saves depositors money given the size of the hole in Cypriot banks balance sheets. The German proposal - to let the banks go bust, and merge them - would have seen a similar haircut to depositors about EUR100,000, but in a more transparent and fair way. Unfortunately, because the Cyprus government (wrongly) thought that they could continue to be a centre for off-shore finance, when their banks were bust, and when they didn't have anybody whose interest it was in to bail them out, it has ended up as a tax rather than the natural outcome of the banks restructuring.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,190
    @Socrates :
    100,000 suspected of abusing student immigration last year
    Looking at the breakdown of the numbers near the bottom of the article being "suspected of abusing student immigration" turns out to consist of something happening that universities have to tell UKBA about, like changing from one course at a university to a different course at the same university.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013
    rcs1000 said:



    Although, at that time, Portugal, Spain and Ireland were certainly developing countries by any standard. Ireland's per capita GDP in 1975 was just $2,800; Portugal was just $2,000.

    What was the UK's?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Is Carola still about? If so this is something she ought to be interested in:

    http://schools.spectator.co.uk/

    Book early and its only eighteen quid plus VAT, a snip at that price.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Yokel

    I'm surprised that the demise of Intrade has attracted such little comment here. Or maybe it has but the mods are naturally having to be quite careful about what is said about it!
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Neil said:

    @Yokel

    I'm surprised that the demise of Intrade has attracted such little comment here. Or maybe it has but the mods are naturally having to be quite careful about what is said about it!

    Yeah bit of a surprise.

    On another note, he Syrian National Coalition leader has resigned and there appears to be a serious fracture of its newly elected 'Prime Minister'.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Any source on these Assad rumours as not seeing anything outside of here?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Looking at the breakdown of the numbers near the bottom of the article being "suspected of abusing student immigration" turns out to consist of something happening that universities have to tell UKBA about, like changing from one course at a university to a different course at the same university.

    "100,000 students doing things like changing university course" doesnt make for such a good headline though.

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,190
    edited March 2013
    Just to add on the student numbers thing, that article illustrates the pointlessness of the governments trying to pander to the right-wing press.

    The situation seems to be that the government has introduced a gazillion new reporting requirements for things that universities have to tell UKBA about. This may be a good idea, or it may be a stupid idea that just wastes universities' time and swamps UKBA staff who already don't have time to follow up leads with a bunch more false positives. But either way, the press just go ahead and report the resulting extra reporting as a bunch more cases of students getting away with abusing the system.

    It doesn't matter what the government does and what the results are, the papers are going to spin a bogus immigration story out of it.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited March 2013

    Any source on these Assad rumours as not seeing anything outside of here?

    One Israeli website and one Arab neither of which'I'm much aware of. Its a perfectly valid scenario for his death but the lack of response from the likes of the opposition and well linked regional sources so far suggests we are still in the 'throw it out there and see if there is a snowball' stage.

    Edit: The story doing the rounds is that he was shot Saturday night and was taken to Shami Hospital (its the chosen hospital of the Syrian big chiefs) and subsequently died. Some of the rumours have been fed by reported security measures at the hospital.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Just to add on the student numbers thing, that article illustrates the pointlessness of the governments trying to pander to the right-wing press.

    The situation seems to be that the government has introduced a gazillion new reporting requirements for things that universities have to tell UKBA about. This may be a good idea, or it may be a stupid idea that just wastes universities' time and swamps UKBA staff who already don't have time to follow up leads with a bunch more false positives. But either way, the press just go ahead and report the resulting extra reporting as a bunch more cases of students getting away with abusing the system.

    It doesn't matter what the government does and what the results are, the papers are going to spin a bogus immigration story out of it.

    Maybe they are actually trying to prevent abuse of the immigration system rather than pandering to the right-wing press? Left-wingers sometimes have this strange belief that when right of centre governments do right of centre things, they actually agree with the left wing and are just pandering to the right wing press.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,169
    edited March 2013
    Although, at that time, Portugal, Spain and Ireland were certainly developing countries by any standard. Ireland's per capita GDP in 1975 was just $2,800; Portugal was just $2,000.



    Spain and Portugal did not join the EU until the mid-80s.

    That said, by the time the Tory government signed the Maastricht Treaty the Berlin Wall was down and it was clear that many central and eastern European countries were going to be applying to join the EU.

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The quote function certainly does work with Chrome - not as suggested earlier.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Portugal a developing country in 1975? I think not. It my not have been among the richest but, though there were some who had very little, the majority of the people had a perfectly adequate standard of living. I spent a lot of time there in the seventies, both before and after the revolution, and it was a most civilised place. Good bars, restaurants, roads and infrastructure and the most charming and generous people. Portugal then was no more a developing nation than the UK, in many ways it was more advanced.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New post.

    David Herdson.
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    samsam Posts: 727
    Emily Thornberry on tv AGAIN.

    ITV1, she's trying to seduce Kenneth Williams
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,190
    Left-wingers sometimes have this strange belief that when right of centre governments do right of centre things, they actually agree with the left wing and are just pandering to the right wing press.
    TBF this isn't just a left-right thing - there are a bunch of populist issues where politicians will feel under pressure to do one thing to win votes, but to do another thing to actually improve standards of living. Or if you prefer the anti-elite framing of the same thing, there are a bunch of issues where politicians claim to represent the ordinary voter before elections, but then fail to deliver due to pressure from civil servants and establishment insiders.

    A lot of these issues involve foreigners. For example, during the primaries Barack Obama pretended he was going to renegotiate NAFTA. But the same happens with things like bank bailouts. On these issues where there's a gap between what would be most attractive to the voters and what elite opinion thinks is best, I'm certain the governments end up trying to move perceptions in a more populist direction than they'd think best, sometimes by moving actual policy in that direction.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,730
    edited March 2013
    Encouraging poll. Reports of the Yes campaign being strangled at birth seem greatly exaggerated (or just plain glaikit).
    It's slightly misleading to attach the gender divide in the referendum campaign entirely to Salmond. As James suggested earlier on, the Holyrood voting figures are much more postive for the SNP which I assume means the gender imbalance is less pronounced (anyone know if there was also a gender breakdown for the Holyrood voting?); if that's the case women seem to be able to thole the SNP and therefore Salmond in government more than they do an independent Scotland. In any case it's useful to have a distinct demographic that the Yes campaign knows needs to be won over.
This discussion has been closed.