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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Scotland rejects independence it will be because Scottis

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Scotland rejects independence it will be because Scottish women are not convinced

With just 18 months to go before the Scottish referendum there’s a new poll from Panelbase in the Sunday Times. Overall the split is 36% YES to 46^% NO. The balance of those sampled have not made up their minds.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Tim might post that 'Salmond has a problem with wimmin', then?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,924
    Whichever way you look at it, that's a very bridgeable gap. Looks like it is going to be a very close vote.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,460
    I have a vague impression that men are on average more interested in politics and perhaps less liable to switch - not sure if there's any polling on that. If so, this could be a worrying poll for the No side.

    FPT: The latest Opinium poll of what people will vote themselves (rather than what they think others will vote - much the same as YouGov:

    The poll puts Labour on 38% (down 1% on a fortnight ago), the Conservatives on 28% (up 1%), Ukip on 16% (-1%) and the Liberal Democrats on 9% (up 1%).

    All three party leaders have seen their personal ratings improve since the last poll, with Miliband now having a net score of -14%, Cameron -23% and Nick Clegg -45%.

    Also an older YouGov survey that I missed from March 3:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/995b3nt4q9/Prospect results 130304.pdf

    - think one has to treat the last question with caution, as after 10 questions on tax avoidance and benefit fraud people may be reluctant to admit they've participated. But the fact that people are more concerned about tax avoidance than benefit fraud may help explain why the latter hasn't really taken off as a popular issue in the way the Tories hoped (polls on the various past and prospective crackdowns have produced mixed results).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,924
    Looks like the latest Cypriot plan is to rework the bank tax so that those with under Euros 100,000 in their accounts will be unaffected, while those with over that amount will pay a 20% levy. If that goes through, it would get a lot of other southern European countries thinking. Cue a sharp rise in London property prices?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited March 2013
    "Testosterone makes a difference here. Men are more willing to be a little gung ho. In so far as independence is a bit of a leap in the dark, they are more willing to take it."

    Is this mirrored in any polling on leaving the EU? That would be the nearest similar polling exercise, and should tell us whether this is an isolated thing or that "testosterone" is a general factor.

    What about pre-independence polls in Czech/Slovakia? What about in Catalonia, Mr Observer? For betting purposes we'd need to see a pattern before we see much significance here.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I have a vague impression that men are on average more interested in politics and perhaps less liable to switch"

    That's the reason why the women's vote is more important - it's up for grabs in a way the men's vote isn't. I don't have any problem with Mike's threadheader, clearly the Yes campaign have some work to do in engaging with women (and they're fully aware of that), but we mustn't lose sight of the headline points of this poll -

    1) The lowest No lead of this year so far - just 10%.

    2) All pollsters who have reported this year have now shown a swing to Yes in their most recent poll.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "it will kill Salmond"

    Salmond may be less popular with women than men, but he still has ratings with women that both Cameron and Miliband can only dream of.

    And by the way, Tim, Nicola Sturgeon is Alistair Darling's direct counterpart in the Yes campaign.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "What about pre-independence polls in Czech/Slovakia?"

    That wasn't decided by referendum, though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,946
    edited March 2013
    The immediacy of having a Tory government who the Scots didn't vote for and quite simply loathe will weigh heavily at this referendum. The visceral hatred for Tory governments at Westminster is something not too well understood in England but it really exists and it's not even class based.

    Quite ironic that the only lasting legacy of what looks like a Cameron one term government might be the break up of the union.
  • Roger:
    "The visceral hatred for Tory governments at Westminster is something not too well understood in England but it really exists and it's not even class based.

    Quite ironic that the only lasting legacy of what looks like a Cameron one term government might be the break up of the union. "

    Those two sentences are a non sequitor. The first is certainly true, but the near-certainty that RedEd will be PM in May 2015 means there's absolutely no point in ending a 300 yr Union to spite a Party that many Scots loathe but a PM who has done absolutely nothing that's anti-Scots or clearly against Scotland, or Scotland's primary interests.

    So Cameron (and what name could be more Scottish?) as Coalition PM is a positive feature, not a negative one for 'No!'
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,228
    Congratulations to the Bluebell Steam Railway in East Sussex.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/mar/24/bluebell-railway-joins-rail-network
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Salmonds issues with women are different to Camerons, risk aversion vs brave heart bravado is the factor that will lose the referendum for Salmond"

    Risk aversion in this referendum means voting Yes to ensure the Tories can never rule Scotland again. Once that point is driven home, women will start moving towards Yes.

    Incidentally, another point that needs to be made about this poll is that it shows an utterly enormous lead for the SNP on Scottish Parliament voting intentions. I haven't seen the breakdowns, but I think we can safely assume that the SNP under Salmond remain the party of choice for women as well as men.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "The first is certainly true, but the near-certainty that RedEd will be PM in May 2015 means there's absolutely no point in ending a 300 yr Union to spite a Party that many Scots loathe"

    It's not about "spiting" anyone - it's about taking control of our own destiny, and ensuring that we get the government we actually vote for from now on. It's laughable to suggest Labour are "near-certainties" to win, but regardless of the result of the next GE, Scotland has to face up to the fact that if we vote No we will continue to be ruled by Westminster Tories two-thirds of the time.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    I'd have slightly more respect for Curtice if he hadn't got 2011 so wrong.

    His facile 'testosterone' explanation aside, it's long been known that when the campaign begins proper Nicola Sturgeon will be front and centre to answer the 'too wee, too poor and too stupid' scaremongering rerun of Iain Gray's 2011 campaign.

    Nothing that has transpired so far from No campaign has been surprising lest you count their eagerness to embrace the same tactics of 2011.

    So when it does get down to the crunch point of the real campaign it's going to boil down to a question of trust as is always the case. Some have yet to be persuaded and some are clearly harder to persuade at the outset (as is the case here) but when the choice for the scottish public is business as usual at westminster or independence, then it's going to take quite a bit more than scaremongering from Clegg, little Ed and Cameron's parties to win that trust.

    Anyone who has any experience of the initial preliminary ground campaigning will tell you that right now the scottish public just aren't focusing on it, which is hardly unexpected. Yet there is little sign of rabid hostility to independence, as some might have you believe, the public just don't care too much right now.

    That will change in the final months of the campaign and if No are content to drive down turnout with a relentlessly negative campaign then they should have a good hard look at the logistics of which side can least afford that and which side has the better motivated and greatest amount of activists necessary for a ground campaign that will need a highly focused GOTV operation. The Yes campaign knows perfectly well they will have to win this the hard way and certainly isn't taking anything for granted. However, if little Ed, Clegg and Cameron have to bus in activists to try and make up the numbers on the ground then that will hardly bode well for them. Nor is such 'cooperation' and allocating of precious campaign resources likely to go particularly smoothly for the various unionist No parties since the GE will be looming large at that time and be more than just theoretical as will the referendum itself.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I'd have slightly more respect for Curtice if he hadn't got 2011 so wrong."

    Let's not forget he also got 2012 wrong - on the local election results programme he called it for Labour, but of course in the end the SNP won in terms of both votes and seats, and also enjoyed a bigger increase in votes and seats than Labour.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "You will lose the referendum as the Tories will lose the next election if the gender gap remains as it is."

    I agree. But the gender gap will not remain as it is.

    "Now I am going back to sleep.
    I do not expect anything to have changed when I wake up."


    Again, I agree - assuming you only plan to sleep for a few hours. But the referendum is a year-and-a-half away.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,946
    @AN1 "......RedEd will be PM in May 2015 means there's absolutely no point in ending a 300 yr Union to spite a Party"

    It is not to spite a party but because it reminds them that their destiny is never in their hands and now they have a one off chance to remedy the situation. My guess is that with a Labour government at Westminster the referendum wouldn't even be close.

    I said 'Cameron's legacy' I should more accurately have said Thatcher's
  • I expect Labour must be sh****** bricks at the prospect of a yes vote - it would seriously dent there long-term chances in the rest of the UK
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @tim

    Incompetence is killing the tories.


    I know it, you know it even the PB tories know it, though try getting many of them to admit it.

    Here's the proof.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/GB_Polling_May_2010_to_Jan_2013.jpg

    However, what is abundantly clear from that is that little Ed didn't 'win' his poll lead, he was gifted it by Osbrowne. So little Ed had better have a better plan for the No campaign than he did in 2011 because the toxic liability Osbrowne is on HIS side. Something that will hardly go unnoticed at the referendum.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,460
    TSE summarised the main YouGov results, but a couple that I think he missed may be of interest: the press regulation package gets a general thumbs up, though people felt politicians, editors and (marginally) celebrities were too much involved in its preparation; and if there were to be a levy on savings in Cyprus (which the poll generally disapproves of), people would like British depositors to be hit as well - which is presumably another sign of the general dislike of tax avoidance (sic - not evasion) showing up in other polls. It's hard to devise an effective unilateral anti-avoidance scheme, but it's clear that it'd be popular. I understnad that the French system allows them to tax you on your apparent wealth - as
    I understand it, if you have no taxable income but a yacht and a Ferrari, you're deemed to have a high income anyway - how does this work in practice?

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/48oioeiy95/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-240313.pdf
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,924
    @Scampi - If Scotland votes for independence there will be no more UK. It will be a momentous change and will affect everyone in many different ways. The process will take quite a few years to evolve, but my guess is that it will end with a British Isles of four independent countries, one of which is a confederation. In each, the current party systems will be very different to the ones we have now. England will somehow have to work out its London problem, perhaps by moving the administeative capital northwards.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "but the near-certainty that RedEd will be PM in May 2015"

    If absolutely nothing changes in two years you're right. Cammie may well put chum before party and keep Osbrowne where he is and reap the 'reward'. The public might not care too much about labour's policies or leader.

    Yet it's worth pointing out that Brown was leading just before the election that wasn't. How did that turn out for him? It's also worth highlighting that Cammie was at one point leading by some 26 points in the polling. Again, was a tory majority a near certainty despite that massive lead?

    It's entirely possible for a party to win during austerity. Obama and the Dems did it after all.
    Cammie is certainly no Obama but little Ed is hardly a political heavyweight either.
    So the tories either win the next election off the back of little Ed and Balls apparent weakness and labour's past economic performance, or they can start looking for banking advisory jobs like Blair.

    Dog whistling just isn't going to cut it next time around. Nor will PR stupidity and policy wonk idiocy like "The Big Society, Aspiration One Nation, Alarm Clock Britain, Predistribution" or even "we're all in this together" do anything other than make the public even more cynical.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "'Huge Problem' Of Male Suicide Rate In UK
    More young men die each day as a result of suicide than road accidents, HIV and assaults combined, according to a charity.
    Suicide is now the biggest killer of young men across the UK, a charity has warned.
    The latest figures show that the suicide rate rose significantly in 2011 with a total of 6,045 people taking their own life - 4,552 of them were men.
    The highest rate was in the male age bracket 30-44 and the recession is thought to be playing a part in many of the deaths."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1068998/huge-problem-of-male-suicide-rate-in-uk
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Scotland votes for independence in 2014 does that mean they won't take part in the 2015 UK general election?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Chemical and radiation experts are assisting the police after exiled Russian businessman Boris Berezovsky was found dead in a bath at his home in the UK."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1068991/berezovsky-death-chemical-experts-called-in
  • @SouthamObserver.

    I concur with much of what you say but your suggestion Wales/NI/England Confederation would do even whereabouts for Labour in England.

    On the Cyprus tax on deposits over €100000 I do resent the assumption that all such people are the possessions of laundered money and wicked tax avoiders. I've never earned more than £65000 a year and amassed my savings over years of thrift in deposits and IS As. I've never avoided tax in my life nor claimed anything from the state I've not paid contributions on. Here in Spain, I pay all my taxes and have private health cover so again I'm not scrounging. If I was in Cyprus I'd feel pretty sick right now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    This is absolute madness IMO:
    Hundreds of schools across the country have banned pupils from staying with families on exchange trips abroad because of child protection fears.

    British pupils can still visit the home of a French, German or Spanish student, but many are not allowed to stay there overnight. Instead they must stay in hotels or hostels.

    And when school parties from abroad arrive in Britain, those students also have to stay in hotels, hostels or halls of residence":
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2298110/Now-end-school-exchange-trip-Pupils-banned-foreign-homes-theres-NO-evidence-abuse.html
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2013
    Mick_Pork
    I agree with all of your post. My own view is that Cameron & Osborne will be dumped asap after May 2015 (unless a big majority is won) with a UKIP-friendly, worked-their-way-up group of hard-nosed individuals as the leadership team.

    That's Gove/May/Hammond - and I can see any and all of those making absolute mincemeat of their Labour oppos in PMQs (etc) each week, leading to their election in the following GE - which may very well be long before 2020, as the post WW2 economic façade comes crashing down and there is a consequential breakdown in law and order as the money runs out and 'Bankrupt Britain' has to cut Welfare down to a bare minimum.

    It's not 'if' but 'when' and 'how quickly' and no current Party leader has the courage to articulate (publicly at least) the extent of the economic mess we're in. The idea that 'growth' will generate £150 billion pa of State income/drop in outgoings is so laughable as to be beyond bonkers - yet unless and until we do that, we're merely servicing our current debts (just) and not repaying them: what happens when Bond rates rise from ~2% to ~10%?

    QE money has to be repaid too - which means inflation nearer 10% than 5% (and possibly much more) - and there is no way that wages can do anything but lag behind until our wages broadly match the rate paid globally for equivalent work: the BRICS' wages rising too, as ours fall (in Bitcoin/Gold terms: the £/hr rate may rise, but a devalued currency means the global rate falls).

    It seems certain that our children and grandchildren (ie 2025+ and 2060+) will be little if any, better off than we THOUGHT we were in 2007/8: two generations of little additional prosperity beckons - which is not dissimilar to most of history, in fact, the last 150-200 years or so being the exception, not the rule.

    EDIT: A technological development which provided cheap energy would change all that, as might Sci-Fi style robots or Web-based services making our working practices virtually unrecognisable from those of today.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Good morning, everyone.

    Race start is in about 9 minutes. The track's reportedly part dry, part wet.

    I hope the independence result is clear-cut, either way. Recounts and potential independence (or not) being determined by a tiny handful of votes (ie within a margin of error) would not be good.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Important development in Syria:
    "Rebels fighting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad have seized a key air base in the southern Syrian province of Daraa after two weeks of fierce battles with loyalist troops":
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/syrian-rebels-say-daraa-air-base-seized/story-fn3dxix6-1226604248466
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,460
    scampi - I guess your comment on Cyprus was in reply to mine? Yes, I think it's unfair that people assume that savings abroad are ill-gotten gains - like you I worked abroad, paid normal taxes and would have been annoyed to have 10% sliced off because the local government or banks had screwed up. But the poll finding is interesting because it reflects a widespread assumption that there's a lot of tax avoidance going on in the form of money being squirrelled away abroad (undoubtedly true) and that those of us who have worked abroad are part of it (generally false). A tax on non-resident savings would avoid hitting people in your situation, but hard to separate from genuine foreign investment.

    A possible answer is the one that we recoiled from in horror when California tried to introduce it - tax on global personal income. To work, that would require a global agrement to share banking data, which is clearly a long way off - but probably where the world will get to eventually when enough countries get fed up with their tax base draining away offshore.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I don`t think that is the reason why anyone is "sh****** bricks at the prospect of a yes vote"

    The bricks they are all worried about is the economic Armageddon that will be let loose post 2015 , after all the bull of the GE is out of the way.

    If I was living in Scotland , I would vote yes, and have some control over the decisions of where the axe will fall,rather than have Westminster impose the tax and cuts regime which suits the south east of England.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 9,460
    edited March 2013
    @Scampi

    " If I was in Cyprus I'd feel pretty sick right now. "

    So would I Scamp.

    However I would also have appreciated that over the years I had been the beneficiary of exceptionally high interest rates. I would have guessed, if I didn't know for sure, that those rates were somehow tied up with dirty money, mainly from Russia. Even if I hadn't guessed, I would have known that exceptionally high interest income is generally associated with high risk.

    Just how high would nevertheless have been a surprise to me.
  • @AndyJS

    Sales of tea and sushi in Surrey will be taking quite a hit.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,536
    LOL so we should be listening to fitalass rather than the Nat lads, should be a fun thread. :-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,611
    Darn and blast, I just wrote a veritable essay on Cyprus, and it got lost. Darn you Vanilla Forums.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,611
    SeanT said:

    Southam, Panelbase are the least reliable pollster and always show the smallest Yes/No gap.

    Pollsters you have actually heard of, like YouGov, show gaps closer to 20%.

    That said, this referendum is still winnable by the Nats. Indeed I'd say a Nat victory is now the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015. If Scots vote independent in 2014 the next election will be chaotic and perverse, who would any Scot then vote Labour in Westminster a year later? They will all vote Nat to negotiate the divorce. This would allow Cameron through to win.

    A 2nd election would follow swiftly. By then Labour would be crippled for a decade.

    test...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,611
    Guys, you can now click the 'Quote' button if you want to reply to someone...
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    edited March 2013
    There are too many issues to be clarified for the people in Scotland to decide on this issue. e.g currency issues with BOE still being the central bank, EU membership.

    Also have there been detailed discussions about how much of the debt Scotland will take on. Obviously Scotland will have to take on a relevant proportion of the UK's national debt. I think £1 trillion would be a fair amount.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    One factor that shows in the polling is that women seem more open minded. Considering both the Scottish referendum and the 2015 election are far away, this seems sensible. The gender gap over conservative/labour is much smaller, only a few percent before the adjustment in ComRes, with a much higher proportion of women undecided. A lot depends on how accurate the adjustments for past polling intention are.

    I think women are less tribal in nature, but also more sensible. It is hard to be firm about voting for something that remains a blank sheet of paper.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Seant

    What price would you put your money on Cameron winning ?

    Even with Scotland gone .

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,924
    @SeanT - If there is a Yes vote in 2014, the Tories may well win in 2015. But England will still need a constitution. The current Labour Party will be finished, as will the current Conservative and Unionist Party. Everything will change over the course of the following years. And if the austerity is endless, the entire way that the English, Welsh, Scots and Irish view the world is almost certainly going to change too. A super-wealthy elite and a majority suffering constant declines in living standards is not sustainable.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Like the adjustments to vanilla that allow quoting and preview. It will help with the flow of conversation.
  • SeanT said:

    Yay! Vanilla is now almost perfect. All we need after this is a way for OGH to pay for it,


    Test
  • Massive help.

    Thanks RCS.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,714
    Quote button? Lovely jubbly!!
  • scampi - I guess your comment on Cyprus was in reply to mine? Yes, I think it's unfair that people assume that savings abroad are ill-gotten gains - like you I worked abroad, paid normal taxes and would have been annoyed to have 10% sliced off because the local government or banks had screwed up. But the poll finding is interesting because it reflects a widespread assumption that there's a lot of tax avoidance going on in the form of money being squirrelled away abroad (undoubtedly true) and that those of us who have worked abroad are part of it (generally false). A tax on non-resident savings would avoid hitting people in your situation, but hard to separate from genuine foreign investment.

    A possible answer is the one that we recoiled from in horror when California tried to introduce it - tax on global personal income. To work, that would require a global agrement to share banking data, which is clearly a long way off - but probably where the world will get to eventually when enough countries get fed up with their tax base draining away offshore.

    It wasn't a reply prohibit I don't disagree with your comments
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2013
    Gove in today's Mail:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2298146/I-refuse-surrender-Marxist-teachers-hell-bent-destroying-schools-Education-Secretary-berates-new-enemies-promise-opposing-plans.html

    References to The Blob are particularly apposite - and extend far wider than just the Education world.

    Whitehall mandarins and senior State white-collar employees: meet the next Conservative PM.
  • @Scampi

    " If I was in Cyprus I'd feel pretty sick right now. "

    So would I Scamp.

    However I would also have appreciated that over the years I had been the beneficiary of exceptionally high interest rates. I would have guessed, if I didn't know for sure, that those rates were somehow tied up with dirty money, mainly from Russia. Even if I hadn't guessed, I would have known that exceptionally high interest income is generally associated with high risk.

    Just how high would nevertheless have been a surprise to me.

    But that's my point - I don't know that your typical saver in a bank would expect or be aware they were saving in a repository of laundered money even in Cyprus. I live in Spain and have money deposits in 4 Spanish and UK banks -because of the €100000 guarantee - the last few weeks have made me wonder whether I'd be safer keeping my savings under the bed. I don't think the EU have exactly covered themselves with glory in their handling of the latest crisis.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited March 2013

    @SeanT - If there is a Yes vote in 2014, the Tories may well win in 2015. But England will still need a constitution. The current Labour Party will be finished, as will the current Conservative and Unionist Party. Everything will change over the course of the following years. And if the austerity is endless, the entire way that the English, Welsh, Scots and Irish view the world is almost certainly going to change too. A super-wealthy elite and a majority suffering constant declines in living standards is not sustainable.

    A scottish vote for independence may be the cause of a tectonic shift in politics. The combination of poor growth, high deficit and anti politics feeling is just the sort of setting for a radical realignment of politics. We will see if our existing parties have real support or are just zombies at that point.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Mike tweets about Labour being blamed for the cuts in the latest poll about 7% more than the coalition and that this is a problem, I think misses the point. This is just one of many questions and people do balance up all of the issues. In this poll, 41% are saying that they would vote Labour and only 30% Tory. By 2015, the coalition will have added a lot more debt than Labour left behind, so if the coalition parties tried to campaign saying that Labour were the party of debt, I am not sure it would work.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AN1 said:

    Gove in today's Mail:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2298146/I-refuse-surrender-Marxist-teachers-hell-bent-destroying-schools-Education-Secretary-berates-new-enemies-promise-opposing-plans.html

    References to The Blob are particularly apposite - and extend far wider than just the Education world.

    Whitehall mandarins and senior State white-collar employees: meet the next Conservative PM.

    I'm on Gove's side on the knowledge debate, at least. The reason I thought he was disappointing on QT (contrary view to some on here, I know) is that he didn't defend his argument robustly. When he resorted to 'yadda yadda' I thought it a missed opportunity and an own goal.

    Liking the quote button!

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484
    rcs1000 said:

    Guys, you can now click the 'Quote' button if you want to reply to someone...

    well done Robert

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    SeanT said:

    Yay! Vanilla is now almost perfect. All we need after this is a way for OGH to pay for it,

    Voluntary monthly subs. What you can afford/feel is reasonable.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    The age split makes logical split. lf you assume there is some risk post independence as Scotland sets itself up as an independent country and that most of the tangible benefits will take some time to flow through, then the risk/reward profile is less attractive for older voters than younger ones.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,924
    Carola said:

    AN1 said:

    Gove in today's Mail:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2298146/I-refuse-surrender-Marxist-teachers-hell-bent-destroying-schools-Education-Secretary-berates-new-enemies-promise-opposing-plans.html

    References to The Blob are particularly apposite - and extend far wider than just the Education world.

    Whitehall mandarins and senior State white-collar employees: meet the next Conservative PM.

    I'm on Gove's side on the knowledge debate, at least. The reason I thought he was disappointing on QT (contrary view to some on here, I know) is that he didn't defend his argument robustly. When he resorted to 'yadda yadda' I thought it a missed opportunity and an own goal.

    Liking the quote button!

    Learning times tables, dates and other facts is surely a no brainer. It is ridiculous that for the last 30 years or so it has not been done. But Gove would do a lot more good if he looked at the way Ofsted operates and the fact that many "good" and "outstanding" schools are actually just good and outstanding at giving Ofsted what it wants. There should be much greater focus on outcomes, not methods. If, say, a teacher gets great literacy and maths results but is not using prescribed methods that should not be a problem.

  • Blofelds_CatBlofelds_Cat Posts: 154
    edited March 2013
    Carola said:

    AN1 said:

    Gove in today's Mail:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2298146/I-refuse-surrender-Marxist-teachers-hell-bent-destroying-schools-Education-Secretary-berates-new-enemies-promise-opposing-plans.html

    References to The Blob are particularly apposite - and extend far wider than just the Education world.

    Whitehall mandarins and senior State white-collar employees: meet the next Conservative PM.

    I'm on Gove's side on the knowledge debate, at least. The reason I thought he was disappointing on QT (contrary view to some on here, I know) is that he didn't defend his argument robustly. When he resorted to 'yadda yadda' I thought it a missed opportunity and an own goal.

    Liking the quote button!

    The reason he was resorting to yadda yadda was the referee, Mr Dimbleby, who cut him off if he was threatening to expose any Leftist malfeasance.

    This quote thing is fine but it makes long posts into epics!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Regardless of his merits or failings, Michael Gove will almost certainly not be a Prime Minister because the public would not take seriously a party leader who looked like a weedy constipated frog. I'm sorry to have to be so personal, but it is a dealbreaker.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,979
    Note the new quote button when replying to previous comments
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited March 2013
    'Learning times tables, dates and other facts is surely a no brainer. It is ridiculous that for the last 30 years or so it has not been done. But Gove would do a lot more good if he looked at the way Ofsted operates and the fact that many "good" and "outstanding" schools are actually just good and outstanding at giving Ofsted what it wants. There should be much greater focus on outcomes, not methods. If, say, a teacher gets great literacy and maths results but is not using prescribed methods that should not be a problem.'



    I could bang on about Gove/Ofsted/Wilshaw/etc all day, but I keep that sort of discussion to edu sites. The knowledge/skills/etc debate is a hot topic at the moment - as is the contradiction between what Wilshaw wants and what Ofsted seems to want. Gove probably has more support on the ground re some issues than he thinks; if he was a good politician he'd recognise/capitalise on that. And cut the playground language. In fairness, the headline in the Mail doesn't reflect what he's saying in the article.

    Edit - I tried to quote that but it put my comment in as well, which could make threads very very long!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,924

    @SeanT - If there is a Yes vote in 2014, the Tories may well win in 2015. But England will still need a constitution. The current Labour Party will be finished, as will the current Conservative and Unionist Party. Everything will change over the course of the following years. And if the austerity is endless, the entire way that the English, Welsh, Scots and Irish view the world is almost certainly going to change too. A super-wealthy elite and a majority suffering constant declines in living standards is not sustainable.

    A scottish vote for independence may be the cause of a tectonic shift in politics. The combination of poor growth, high deficit and anti politics feeling is just the sort of setting for a radical realignment of politics. We will see if our existing parties have real support or are just zombies at that point.
    None of the parties has yet come close to understanding the implications of sustained austerity, low wage increases and ceaseless rises in the cost of living. That these may continue as the country becomes increasingly unequal in terms of income will become pretty dangerous for all our elites - and that includes the parties. At some stage patience will snap. You can get away with huge gaps when everyone is seeing living standards rise. It's not sustainable when only a few benefit.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Note the new quote button when replying to previous comments

    Noted, with thanks !

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,979
    Carola said:

    SeanT said:

    Yay! Vanilla is now almost perfect. All we need after this is a way for OGH to pay for it,

    Voluntary monthly subs. What you can afford/feel is reasonable.
    We need regular income to pay for this and I'll be encouraging others to follow you in making monthly payments.

    What we don't know yet is what Vanilla will charge after the trial month

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited March 2013

    Carola said:

    AN1 said:

    Gove in today's Mail:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2298146/I-refuse-surrender-Marxist-teachers-hell-bent-destroying-schools-Education-Secretary-berates-new-enemies-promise-opposing-plans.html

    References to The Blob are particularly apposite - and extend far wider than just the Education world.

    Whitehall mandarins and senior State white-collar employees: meet the next Conservative PM.

    I'm on Gove's side on the knowledge debate, at least. The reason I thought he was disappointing on QT (contrary view to some on here, I know) is that he didn't defend his argument robustly. When he resorted to 'yadda yadda' I thought it a missed opportunity and an own goal.

    Liking the quote button!

    The reason he was resorting to yadda yadda was the referee, Mr Dimbleby, who cut him off if he was threatening to expose any Leftist malfeasance.

    This quote thing is fine but it makes long posts into epics!
    Yep, but it still sounded pathetic. He comes out with a lot if stuff like that. It just makes him sound petulant. It's embarrassing.

    EDIT: oh, the other quote doesn't show once you post. Great.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,611
    scampi said:

    @Scampi

    But that's my point - I don't know that your typical saver in a bank would expect or be aware they were saving in a repository of laundered money even in Cyprus. I live in Spain and have money deposits in 4 Spanish and UK banks -because of the €100000 guarantee - the last few weeks have made me wonder whether I'd be safer keeping my savings under the bed. I don't think the EU have exactly covered themselves with glory in their handling of the latest crisis.

    Scampi: you are absolutely right that the EU has not covered itself in glory. That said, I think it's important to note that when you put your money in the bank, you have lent the money to the bank. The issue with Cyprus - btw - is not (solely) that the banks had laundered money in them (Swiss banks have plenty of deposits of dubious provenance) but that the banks then went on a lending splurge that made the Irish and Spanish banks look positively conservative.

    As a general rule with banking, if someone is offering you too much interest, beware. There is no 'free lunch', if someone is offering you 5% (whether Icesave or Bank of Cyprus), you should be suspicious.
  • @Scampi

    Savers in Cyprus would have been aware that they were benefiting from exceptionally high interest rates and if they were unaware that such rates imply high risk, they were being a bit naive.

    In view of the strong Russian presence and influence on the Island, I should think general awareness of the risks was fairly high. But aware of not, the savers still got the benefit of the rates - and even after the EU's heist, they would still be ahead of most EU savers depositing in clean and safe old banks.

    As for whether the EU has been smart or not, that's a different question and I doubt we'll know the answer for quite a while. My own impression is that it has fired a very large and loud warning shot across Russian bows, and scared the sh*ts out of the Cypriot government, but this has got a fair way to run yet.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Apart from Opinium, was there any other poll yesterday ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    SeanT said:

    Yay! Vanilla is now almost perfect. All we need after this is a way for OGH to pay for it,

    May be you could allocate some of your royalties?

  • @Scampi

    I see RCS has made a similar point to me, but without the geo-political angle, which I actually think is the bigger and more important aspect.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    Note the new quote button when replying to previous comments

    Ahem, it's a link.

    :just-sayin':

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549


    Now there I would disagree with you. Gove is an excellent minister and a star of the Tory party - but he is not sellable as prime minister. Tories need to accept this. Gove is like a combination of Keith Joseph and Peter Mandelson, a great ideas man and a very skilful politician - but not a lead singer.

    The Tory leader needs to have a gritty determined ordinary-girl charisma. NOT posh. NOT Oxbridge (hopefully). NOT Teresa May. Gove could be Home Sec. Boris as Foreign Sec (if he can be arsed). Hammond as chancellor. All led by a plausible woman.

    That team could win.
    Spill the beans, Sean ! The next Tory Parliamentary Party won't be much larger !

    A woman but not Teresa May. But she lives in New York now !

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Carola said:

    SeanT said:

    Yay! Vanilla is now almost perfect. All we need after this is a way for OGH to pay for it,

    Voluntary monthly subs. What you can afford/feel is reasonable.
    We need regular income to pay for this and I'll be encouraging others to follow you in making monthly payments.

    What we don't know yet is what Vanilla will charge after the trial month

    Mike, can you put in a button somewhere on the home page to solicit donations?
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Carola said:

    Edit - I tried to quote that but it put my comment in as well, which could make threads very very long!

    Just delete the irrelevant parts of the quote. Moderators on established web-sites* will take offence to people who lazily use the "Quote" facility and at accordingly.

    :not-rocket-science:

    * Key Publishing, Defencetalk, Military Photos, etc.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,924
    Carola said:

    'Learning times tables, dates and other facts is surely a no brainer. It is ridiculous that for the last 30 years or so it has not been done. But Gove would do a lot more good if he looked at the way Ofsted operates and the fact that many "good" and "outstanding" schools are actually just good and outstanding at giving Ofsted what it wants. There should be much greater focus on outcomes, not methods. If, say, a teacher gets great literacy and maths results but is not using prescribed methods that should not be a problem.'

    I could bang on about Gove/Ofsted/Wilshaw/etc all day, but I keep that sort of discussion to edu sites. The knowledge/skills/etc debate is a hot topic at the moment - as is the contradiction between what Wilshaw wants and what Ofsted seems to want. Gove probably has more support on the ground re some issues than he thinks; if he was a good politician he'd recognise/capitalise on that. And cut the playground language. In fairness, the headline in the Mail doesn't reflect what he's saying in the article.

    Edit - I tried to quote that but it put my comment in as well, which could make threads very very long!



    Sadly, it suits Gove's political purposes to insinuate teachers are part of the problem because that justifies his attempts to micro-manage the curriculum.

    Ofsted is a major drag - too often inspections are done by form fillers and retirees who got out of the classroom because they could not hack it. Telling teachers how their classrooms should be organised, insisting they teach their subjects (or literacy and maths at primary level) in certain ways, and so on is just ridiculous. What is good is what works. A teacher who gets sensational reading and writing results, but does not use phonics, should be encouraged, not told he can't do it because the method is not Ofsted-friendly.


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932



    There should be much greater focus on outcomes, not methods. If, say, a teacher gets great literacy and maths results but is not using prescribed methods that should not be a problem.

    Now you're sounding like a Tory again!

    You're absolutely right, of course. We've been working with a great programme of storytelling to encourage children's imagination and engagement with art - seeing some fantastic results, but this is definitely outside the 'approved' structure
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932



    This quote thing is fine but it makes long posts into epics!

    You can edit the contents of the blockquote by using the mouse and the delete key.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    @Scampi

    Savers in Cyprus would have been aware that they were benefiting from exceptionally high interest rates and if they were unaware that such rates imply high risk, they were being a bit naive.

    In view of the strong Russian presence and influence on the Island, I should think general awareness of the risks was fairly high. But aware of not, the savers still got the benefit of the rates - and even after the EU's heist, they would still be ahead of most EU savers depositing in clean and safe old banks.

    As for whether the EU has been smart or not, that's a different question and I doubt we'll know the answer for quite a while. My own impression is that it has fired a very large and loud warning shot across Russian bows, and scared the sh*ts out of the Cypriot government, but this has got a fair way to run yet.

    The problem is that, wether the cypriot or other depositors in Cyprus banks benefited from higher interest or not, what the EU and the International Bank wants to do, is the outright theft of X amount from savers deposits. And if it starts there, in Cyprus, it can spread to anywhere in the EU.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    rcs1000 said:

    if someone is offering you 5% (whether Icesave or Bank of Cyprus), you should be suspicious.

    My bank offers 0.1% and blames the Bank of England when you complain.

    Does that make them conservative or just plain mean?
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited March 2013
    'Ofsted is a major drag - too often inspections are done by form fillers and retirees who got out of the classroom because they could not hack it. Telling teachers how their classrooms should be organised, insisting they teach their subjects (or literacy and maths at primary level) in certain ways, and so on is just ridiculous. What is good is what works. A teacher who gets sensational reading and writing results, but does not use phonics, should be encouraged, not told he can't do it because the method is not Ofsted-friendly.'




    Ofsted is a joke. Gove will find many a 'blob' in the Ofsted ranks. And in some respects Gove is flailing around like an idiot (as time will tell). Wilshaw I have a lot of time for. Some of his comments got teachers' backs up at the start but they were taken out of context. In my experience and from what I read teachers are warming to him. Anyway. It's Sunday. Enough already.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Eddie Mair just took Boris Johnson apart on the Andrew Marr show.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Cyprus: What is curious is how the Russian saviour option went down the tubes at speed. I had a feeling it wouldn't come off either on the Cypriot government side and that the Russians would not bite anyway (the regional geo-politics alone were a real flammable cocktail) but the idea refused to die.

    Many Cypriots liked the Russian's coming and bailing them out idea but clearly the Russians did not. It isn't clear yet why the Russians didn't buy in unless they are simply waiting buy up some of the mess by indirect means.

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited March 2013
    Charles said:


    @Blofelds_Cat

    This quote thing is fine but it makes long posts into epics!


    You can edit the contents of the blockquote by using the mouse and the delete key.

    Peoples,

    You cannot have embedded blockquotes; the quote will be ended on the first occurance of the closing tag </blockquote>. Replace inner-tags with an alternate such as the <i></i> pairing.

    Something I mentioned to St Ant. of Wells, before I found this kindergarten, was the introduction of an etiquette thread. This would explain to the puntahs how to post in a manner which was conducive to getting a point across to the wider audience. Has he implemented one yet...?
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Edit - I tried to quote that but it put my comment in as well, which could make threads very very long!

    Just delete the irrelevant parts of the quote. Moderators on established web-sites* will take offence to people who lazily use the "Quote" facility and at accordingly.

    :not-rocket-science:

    * Key Publishing, Defencetalk, Military Photos, etc.
    Yeah, okay fluff. But when I tried that the comment I was actually replying to didn't appear as a quote. It looked like part of my comment. So what's the trick? (In plain English please).

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Carola said:


    Yeah, okay fluff. But when I tried that the comment I was actually replying to didn't appear as a quote. It looked like part of my comment. So what's the trick? (In plain English please).

    I refer the lady to the answer my honourable friend gave before:

    @Charles

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1970/#Comment_1970
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    OOOF Webber sounds pissed.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    On topic. Very interesting poll. Yes looks eminently winnable, especially with Salmond's very canny focus on childcare. It's as if naming the date has given the Nats a shot in the arm. Now my unionist brethren must make the philosophical case for the union, rather than spinning lines about EU rejections and border patrol boats on the Tweed.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    tim said:

    @MikeK

    Did you used to post as Weathercock?

    Yes.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:


    Yeah, okay fluff. But when I tried that the comment I was actually replying to didn't appear as a quote. It looked like part of my comment. So what's the trick? (In plain English please).

    I refer the lady to the answer my honourable friend gave before:

    @Charles

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1970/#Comment_1970
    Thanks.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    tim said:

    @YorkCity

    There a favourite who should be laid if ever there was one

    If he was a favourite it ended this morning .
  • Bring on Scottish Independence!
    Politics in this country needs a radical overhaul, none of our parties are fit for purpose. A Yes vote would change everything, and I think it's time to roll the dice.
    I have no idea if Yes would be good or bad, have no knowledge of the financial or social implications, but can it be any worse than where we are now?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @SeanT - If there is a Yes vote in 2014, the Tories may well win in 2015. But England will still need a constitution. The current Labour Party will be finished, as will the current Conservative and Unionist Party. Everything will change over the course of the following years. And if the austerity is endless, the entire way that the English, Welsh, Scots and Irish view the world is almost certainly going to change too. A super-wealthy elite and a majority suffering constant declines in living standards is not sustainable.

    A scottish vote for independence may be the cause of a tectonic shift in politics. The combination of poor growth, high deficit and anti politics feeling is just the sort of setting for a radical realignment of politics. We will see if our existing parties have real support or are just zombies at that point.
    None of the parties has yet come close to understanding the implications of sustained austerity, low wage increases and ceaseless rises in the cost of living. That these may continue as the country becomes increasingly unequal in terms of income will become pretty dangerous for all our elites - and that includes the parties. At some stage patience will snap. You can get away with huge gaps when everyone is seeing living standards rise. It's not sustainable when only a few benefit.

    We really do seem to be revisiting the Seventies, with stagflation, social unrest and major structural changes in the economy required. Then the realignment was internal in that Thatcher abandoned one nation conservatism. I can see something similar happening again, but not sure whether the realignment will be within existing party structures. The departure of Scotland from the Westminster parliament will shift the center of gravity well to the right. It is why SLAB will be the driving force in a no campaign. We really have gone back in time, even to expected power cuts.
  • @MikeL

    Sure, Mike.

    I'm neither defending nor condemning these institutions, just pointing out the risk/reward relationship.

    On a betting Site, you'd think that relationship would be fairly well understood.
  • @charles :You can edit the contents of the blockquote by using the mouse and the delete key.

    Less easily on an iPad, but I take your point
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Y0kel said:

    Cyprus: What is curious is how the Russian saviour option went down the tubes at speed. I had a feeling it wouldn't come off either on the Cypriot government side and that the Russians would not bite anyway (the regional geo-politics alone were a real flammable cocktail) but the idea refused to die.

    Many Cypriots liked the Russian's coming and bailing them out idea but clearly the Russians did not. It isn't clear yet why the Russians didn't buy in unless they are simply waiting buy up some of the mess by indirect means.

    Do we know for certain whether the Russians supply gas to Germany?

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    tim said:

    @MikeK

    Don't you have some unsettled bets?

    Yes and they will be settled shortly, I have arranged it with MIke. As far as i know I don't owe you anything.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 9,460
    edited March 2013
    Y0kel said:

    Cyprus: It isn't clear yet why the Russians didn't buy in unless they are simply waiting buy up some of the mess by indirect means.

    It was probably evident from the outset that they would not be allowed to gain or hold any significant geo-political advantage in Cyprus - neither the EU nor the US would stand for that. So any profit would have to be purely financial.

    My guess is that they can easily do their business through other havens (Lebanon, Singapore?) and that Cyprus just isn't that important to them.

    If I am right, then we might conclude the Cypriot Government overplayed its hand badly and the EU has played it to a nicety, but it's early days yet.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    AN1 said:

    Gove in today's Mail:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2298146/I-refuse-surrender-Marxist-teachers-hell-bent-destroying-schools-Education-Secretary-berates-new-enemies-promise-opposing-plans.html

    References to The Blob are particularly apposite - and extend far wider than just the Education world.

    Whitehall mandarins and senior State white-collar employees: meet the next Conservative PM.

    Al last someone is prepared to take on Common Purpose.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Guys, you can now click the 'Quote' button if you want to reply to someone...

    What about the girls ?

    Free the "Plato One" from the tyrany of second class vanila membership !!



  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I have no recollection of the first and acknowledge the second which will be setled next month at Dirty Dicks. So if you don't mind, I know who I owe money to and it aint you.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,460
    surbiton said:

    Apart from Opinium, was there any other poll yesterday ?

    Just the usual YouGov, which like Opinium showed a Labour lead of 11.

This discussion has been closed.