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Sir Keir Starmer suffers from electoral dysfunction, again – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,170
    isam said:


    Great idea

    There should be a lot more OAPs/retired doing degree courses in subjects of no practical use to them, but to broaden their horizons/further their knowledge. I think this would be a great thing, both for the individual who keeps their mind stimulated instead of just watching daytime tv, and society overall
    Indeedy- and not just the retired. All of us would benefit from that. And if AI is going to massively reduce the amount of work humans need to do, moving to a world of gentleman scholar-artists is one of the more wholesome outcomes.

    One of the maddening things is that the bits of the education system that used to do those things pretty well and across the country- FE, Adult Education, the Open University- are basically on their last legs.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825
    Leon said:

    As I have specifically said, I HAVE NOT DONE THIS

    My daughter is very bright (and stubborn) she reads intensely, she has always laughed off my AI thing, and indeed makes Xmas presents for me that tease me about it

    However in recent weeks she has gone off and done her OWN research and realised that her prospective career is indeed in grave jeopardy of automation. So now she is thinking again

    All I am doing is trying to give kind fatherly advice (as best I can, who knows anything) which is basically: Do what you love, get a good degree in that subject, then worry about the future

    Arguably, I should have said MORE. I never explicitly steered her away from this first subject (despite internal doubts). Maybe I should, and she would not be in this pickle now?

    eg If you had an 18 year old daughter convinced she should study foreign languages at uni so she can be a translator as a career, what would you tell her?
    Tell her to separate out issues she can control from issues she can't. If (big if) translation goes extinct as a career, tough, you have no choice but to choose something else. But that does not render all modern languages at all universities either intrinsically or extrinsically useless. Quality of subject in itself, university and course matters much more.

    In general it is a good idea to do something you love for its own sake, rather than something you don't like for reasons that may prove and illusion.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,279

    Well frankly the idea that anyone in this day and age carries an ‘appointment card’ about their person or indeed any card whatsoever is somewhat quaint, but I’m glad you found your wallet.

    I would of course normally be tempted to ask why you need a wallet at all, because wallets themselves are pointless, in the era of the smartphone.

    But, in solidarity with you, and other PBers, I will keep my counsel.
    You might want to think about the well-known expression 'never put all your eggs in one basket'
  • A solicitor whose firm reported him to the SRA for dodgy tweets has been struck off.

    Farrukh Najeeb Husain directed his ire at Jewish barrister Simon Myerson KC and Jewish Times journalist Hugo Rifkind. In the posts he called Rifkind a “Zionist pig” and said that Myerson “wreaks [sic] of white privilege”.

    He also referred to Israel as “ShitRael” and asked Rifkind if he was “just mentally retarded as a racist?”

    Bevan Brittan, where Husain is understood to have worked as a self-employed contractor in 2021, reported the immigration and employment lawyer to the SRA for his posts.

    At his SDT hearing Husain argued that he was anti-Zionist and simply opposed to the state of Israel, rather than antisemitic, and that he had drafted his tweets poorly and hastily.

    But the regulator said he appeared “to conflate antisemitism, anti-Zionism and opposition to the Israeli government” and had ended up “demonstrating hostility towards Jews because they are Jewish”.

    Husain represented himself during the proceedings but rather lost his rag with the SRA, and with Capsticks, which acted for the regulator at the tribunal, and with Campaign Against Antisemitism, which testified on the SRA’s behalf.

    The lawyer accused the SRA of “weaponising new antisemitism” and of being “in bed” with Campaign Against Antisemitism. He also claimed that Capsticks barrister Louise Culleton was a British “imperialist” who “bang[ed] on about the Holocaust because [she] wants to hide [her] country’s own crimes”.

    At other points Husain asserted that Myerson was a “fascist”, and claimed the expert witness from Campaign Against Antisemitism was himself an antisemite who was “engaging in the antisemitic trope that there is a collection of Jews who are self-haters, who have turned against their nation and who are spouting conspiracy theories”.

    He also went after the SRA’s investigating officer, sending “offensive emails when he was displeased with the course of the SRA’s investigation”.

    In one he accused the officer of being "a Zionist apologist and fascist like ur organisation" and claimed the officer was “a Sikh Punjabi” who was “angry" because of tweets made "by me about the Sikh national hero Ranjit Singh as a rapist of Muslim women”.

    The tribunal found some, though not all, of Husain’s offensive or inappropriate tweets were antisemitic, but denied the SRA’s application for costs.


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/lawyer-struck-sending-antisemitic-tweets-while-bevan-brittan
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    maxh said:

    Not that bit. The bit about ‘to where exactly Israel is hardly safe’. Well quite, but add in that the caller might not want to move to a country with a fascist government. You’re basically saying ‘you don’t have a better option so lump itI’. That’s the callous bit.
    Moving to Israel given the current situation is hardly moving somewhere safer . And the caller was overreacting to one by- election result.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612

    Indeedy- and not just the retired. All of us would benefit from that. And if AI is going to massively reduce the amount of work humans need to do, moving to a world of gentleman scholar-artists is one of the more wholesome outcomes.

    One of the maddening things is that the bits of the education system that used to do those things pretty well and across the country- FE, Adult Education, the Open University- are basically on their last legs.
    I really enjoyed doing my PPE degree with the OU. Took a lot of time and effort, but definitely worth it. And mademy mind work in a different way to the technical stuff I have to deal with in my day job.
  • Macfarlanes has apologised to staff after an external speaker went off-piste while talking about his experiences during World War 2.

    To mark Holocaust Memorial Day, Macfarlanes held an event with a guest speaker from the Holocaust Educational Trust (HET), whom ROF is not naming.

    The talk was “very interesting to start with”, said a source, as the speaker, who is in his 90s, described being interned by the Nazis in a concentration camp where he worked as slave labour until he was liberated in 1945.

    Things “took a turn for the worse” when he strayed outside the talk's remit and expounded on current events, referring to pro-Palestine protesters as “mobs” who were “all refugees who weren’t even born here” and had been “brainwashed by social media”.

    “Be careful of these Islamists… these lot are coming for you and British democracy once they are done with us”, he allegedly also said, claiming that “All these wealthy Arabs are funding these universities which are brainwashing people”.

    A source said that “People sat and listened throughout but afterwards quite a few attendees were visibly upset”.

    Now the firm has issued an apology, emailing Macs staff to say that “Towards the end of the session, [the speaker] made unplanned comments expressing his personal views about the contemporary political landscape and used some offensive language”.

    “These comments came as a surprise to both the firm and the Holocaust Educational Trust. They do not reflect the firm's view and we apologise for the offence and hurt which we know was caused by this”, it said.


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-macfarlanes-apologises-external-speakers-unplanned-remarks-about-palestine
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,973
    Or choose a university where it's easy to change course after sampling new subjects
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,279
    Leon said:

    Here is Biden saying he will blow up Nordstream

    https://x.com/Iammurphycolet/status/1762499763000283493?s=20


    Here is Biden's SoS Victoria Nuland saying the exact same thing

    https://x.com/Iammurphycolet/status/1762499763000283493?s=20


    I mean, the Americans actually BOASTED they were gonna blow it up

    I give up. I think if Joe Biden came round to your house with a chunk of the exploded Nordstream pipeline in his hand and a handmade movie of him planting the bomb on the Nordstream pipeline and the signed affidavits of 17,000 submersible Catholic nuns who went under the waves also saw him do it, and who also filmed it on Vatican iphones, you'd still say "Nah, Putin did it"
    I don't have time to follow all your links - but at least have the honesty to admit that the one from your previous post was clearly about sanctions, whoever blew up Nordstream.
  • I miss the days when ROF was all about lawyers using client funds to pay for hookers and drugs then blaming it on stress.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    Leon said:

    I was right. China has exceeded the USA in GDP by PPP

    Inded the FT thinks its surpassing of the USA is UNDER estimated

    "Sorry America, China has a bigger economy than you"


    "Measured at PPP, the latest IMF data shows China’s GDP exceeded that in the US around the time Donald Trump was “making America great again”. It is now 22 per cent larger. The figures make sense when you look at corroborating evidence. China’s electricity generation, for example, overtook that in the US in 2010. And during the 2016-22 period when China’s economy was supposedly making no progress compared with the US, its generation grew 45 per cent, while it was broadly flat in America.

    It comforts both the US and China not to acknowledge the changing shift in global economic power."

    https://archive.ph/SQnuk#selection-2181.0-2189.97
    Given the fictionalisation of Chinese statistics, the bankruptcy of Evergrande (I think you may be aware of this, the fact that they are dynamiting skyscrapers because they are poorly built and they cannot fill them because of catastrophic demography, I wouldn't be too confident about that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,270

    And how does the MP for Rochdale influence Netanyahu in any shape or form?

    They have elected a hugely compromised individual with a track record of cozying up to dictators and mass murderers. Even two years ago he was poo-pooing the very idea that Putin might invade Ukraine.

    The government and Labour both articulate a desire for a ceasefire and long term settlement. What will the ludicrous cat imitator bring to the argument?
    People weren't voting for a cat imitator. They were voting for the strongest symbol of support for Gazans and Palestinians that was on show. The way it makes a difference is by news outlets TV newspapers and the hullabaloo surrounding the result making waves throughout the country and possibly beyond. It has been pretty wall to wall so far
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,289
    AlsoLei said:

    Looking on the bright side, this result reminds us of the value of actually getting out there and campaigning.

    I'm not sure we can really conclude that. It's such an unusual scenario that any local campaigning was in a unique position. In broad terms I still think a lot of campaigning activity is of unclear effect, and many campaigners a bit in denial because no one wants to think it makes marginal difference most of the time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,378
    Mr. Viewcode, hidden Chinese debt that's provincial rather than national might also be a significant problem for the country. But, as you say, the fictional nature of official statistics makes it hard to tell.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,294
    edited March 2024
    algarkirk said:

    Tell her to separate out issues she can control from issues she can't. If (big if) translation goes extinct as a career, tough, you have no choice but to choose something else. But that does not render all modern languages at all universities either intrinsically or extrinsically useless. Quality of subject in itself, university and course matters much more.

    In general it is a good idea to do something you love for its own sake, rather than something you don't like for reasons that may prove and illusion.
    My daughter is not doing languages, that was just an example

    FWIW if I did have a child intent on doing foreign languages so as to pursue a career in translation I WOULD say something: I would tell them they are delusional. 99% of translation jobs are going to disappear, they already are disappearing

    By all means study a foreign lingo as an act of love, of expanding your mind, of encountering a new culture - all fine. Like learning the viola. But the idea it will neatly lead to a well paying job as a translator is now farcical

    "Who killed the EU’s translators?
    Automation is creeping into European Union institutions — and translators are among its first victims."


    https://www.politico.eu/article/translators-translation-european-union-eu-autmation-machine-learning-ai-artificial-intelligence-translators-jobs/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,289
    Pulpstar said:

    The first hour after the boxes have arrived, but a count can't be gleaned by eye is generally very unreliable for betting and anything anecdotal spin fed to Jon Craig who is probably the worst offender for passing unsubstantiated and often untrue by-election rumours when the polls close.
    Yes, those early takes are a grand old tradition of nonsense.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    nico679 said:

    Moving to Israel given the current situation is hardly moving somewhere safer . And the caller was overreacting to one by- election result.
    Agreed on both points, but it now feels as though we are simply talking across one another so I’ll leave it there.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,846
    Leon said:

    As I have specifically said, I HAVE NOT DONE THIS

    My daughter is very bright (and stubborn) she reads intensely, she has always laughed off my AI thing, and indeed makes Xmas presents for me that tease me about it

    However in recent weeks she has gone off and done her OWN research and realised that her prospective career is indeed in grave jeopardy of automation. So now she is thinking again

    All I am doing is trying to give kind fatherly advice (as best I can, who knows anything) which is basically: Do what you love, get a good degree in that subject, then worry about the future

    Arguably, I should have said MORE. I never explicitly steered her away from this first subject (despite internal doubts). Maybe I should, and she would not be in this pickle now?

    eg If you had an 18 year old daughter convinced she should study foreign languages at uni so she can be a translator as a career, what would you tell her?
    Your daughter can study foreign languages for fun and intellectual stimulation and later become a French teacher or spot welder. Most of a foreign language degree is not relevant to translation anyway. It's basically like an English degree but reading foreign books and plays instead of Shakespeare.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kamski said:

    You might want to think about the well-known expression 'never put all your eggs in one basket'
    Yeah I do, and I don’t. That’s one reason (among many) that I have an Apple Watch Ultra, easily the best tech product I have ever purchased.

    Recommended.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,832
    Leon said:

    This is why I now think PPP is much more accurate, look at the table of national GDP by PPP


    China 35,042,689
    United States 27,966,533
    India 14,261,176
    Japan 6,710,000
    Germany 5,715,000
    Russia 5,225,543
    Indonesia 4,715,436
    Brazil 4,257,121
    France 4,009,50
    United Kingdom 3,988,000
    Turkey 3,805,673
    Mexico 3,423,585
    Italy 3,286,912
    South Korea 3.050000
    Spain 2,508,000


    To me that *feels* about right, in terms of sheer economic heft

    If you look at the GDP Nominal table, it is nuts


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

    it reckons that Britain is twice as economically powerful as Russia, and that Italy is economically bigger than Brazil. Pfff!

    And now I really must pack. An entertaining debate, anon
    It's pretty simple, Russia and Brazil have oceans of really, really poor people. Poverty of the kind we don't have, basically. Both have a much smaller rich bit - a tiny piece where you get fancy cocktails, nth star hotels etc.

    Imagine that Britain halved public service spending (or more) and spent that on the military. which would mean about 10x the military spending we have now. We'd have bigger armed forces than Russia, in equipment terms.

    That's basically how Russia works - plus a pile of left over, rusty stuff from The Days of Empire.

    To put it another way, if the Polish plans to expand their military go through, they will have a larger, better equipped army (in terms of equipment) than Russia. And these plans are considered economically quite feasible.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    kamski said:

    You might want to think about the well-known expression 'never put all your eggs in one basket'
    I like the three item approach:

    Proper credit card for the pub

    Hard copy ticket for the train

    Phone for posting on PB 👍
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,846

    I miss the days when ROF was all about lawyers using client funds to pay for hookers and drugs then blaming it on stress.

    Now it's about tuna sandwiches. (Popbitch for lawyers.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,832

    Your daughter can study foreign languages for fun and intellectual stimulation and later become a French teacher or spot welder. Most of a foreign language degree is not relevant to translation anyway. It's basically like an English degree but reading foreign books and plays instead of Shakespeare.
    +1

    I'd also recommend doing as many side activities and non-core subject modules as you can. Some unis are setting up the equivalent of Maker Spaces (UCL did) - learn to weld and play with a lathe, while doing your degree in French.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    FF43 said:

    You earn less but the stuff you buy costs less. The problem I think with PPP here is that the stuff Chinese buy mostly doesn't cost less. Obviously I don't have the data to back that up.

    Overall GDP is about the same as the US and that measure is the one that matters in some contexts. For example in the power that China can project militarily and economically.
    Fake news.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    Leon said:

    My daughter is not doing languages, that was just an example

    FWIW if I did have a child intent on doing foreign languages so as to pursue a career in translation I WOULD say something: I would tell them they are delusional. 99% of translation jobs are going to disappear, they already are disappearing

    By all means study a foreign lingo as an act of love, of expanding your mind, of encountering a new culture - all fine. Like learning the viola. But the idea it will neatly lead to a well paying job as a translator is now farcical

    "Who killed the EU’s translators?
    Automation is creeping into European Union institutions — and translators are among its first victims."


    https://www.politico.eu/article/translators-translation-european-union-eu-autmation-machine-learning-ai-artificial-intelligence-translators-jobs/
    I have a friend who was a simultaneous translator for could have been the UN or somesuch. They said it was the most stressful thing imaginable and all of them sat there with piles of chocolate and coffee in front of them which they would wolf down as they went.

    The sooner that is replaced by AI the better.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I like the three item approach:

    Proper credit card for the pub

    Hard copy ticket for the train

    Phone for posting on PB 👍
    Only one of those is needed (clue: it’s not the plastic or card). Phone and smartwatch - liberate yourself of pointless landfill.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Nigelb said:

    No.
    There are a LOT more Chinese people.
    Yes sorry! - I meant the 'purchasing power' adjustment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    Leon said:

    Here is Biden saying he will blow up Nordstream

    https://x.com/Iammurphycolet/status/1762499763000283493?s=20


    Here is Biden's SoS Victoria Nuland saying the exact same thing

    https://x.com/Iammurphycolet/status/1762499763000283493?s=20


    I mean, the Americans actually BOASTED they were gonna blow it up

    I give up. I think if Joe Biden came round to your house with a chunk of the exploded Nordstream pipeline in his hand and a handmade movie of him planting the bomb on the Nordstream pipeline and the signed affidavits of 17,000 submersible Catholic nuns who went under the waves also saw him do it, and who also filmed it on Vatican iphones,.."
    It would be one of your AI deepfakes.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Only one of those is needed (clue: it’s not the plastic or card). Phone and smartwatch - liberate yourself of pointless landfill.
    I also find a wallet useful to carry the card , ticket and of course cash
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,294
    kamski said:

    I don't have time to follow all your links - but at least have the honesty to admit that the one from your previous post was clearly about sanctions, whoever blew up Nordstream.
    lol

    I just watched your video, they clearly talk about "rolling back" Nordstream in vehement terms, and the dude makes heavy hints about going beyond "suspension", if Russia invades Ukraine, and instead "ending Nordstream permanently" - ie blowing the fucker up
  • Now it's about tuna sandwiches. (Popbitch for lawyers.)
    Dirty pleb stole food from a hard working lawyer.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I also find a wallet useful to carry the card , ticket and of course cash
    AKA lugging around pointless landfill that ruins the line of one’s trousers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    edited March 2024

    Well frankly the idea that anyone in this day and age carries an ‘appointment card’ about their person or indeed any card whatsoever is somewhat quaint, but I’m glad you found your wallet.

    I would of course normally be tempted to ask why you need a wallet at all, because wallets themselves are pointless, in the era of the smartphone.

    But, in solidarity with you, and other PBers, I will keep my counsel.
    Eventually everything will move to Google/Apple/X Wallet but in my wallet National Trust, Costco, Yorkshire Wildlife Park all have cards which don't have digital forms.
    Also needed a physical debit card for the plumber's cash withdrawal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    I think people are missing the point that if you go completely cashless you are well and truly fucked if you want to pop in for Char Siu Rice at Wong Kei in Wardour St.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Fishing said:

    No. Firstly, China has four times America's population. Secondly, Chinese economic statistics aren't worth anything.
    Yes, sorry, my literal question was silly. I was more just wondering about the PPP measurement. What it's driving at.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,294
    Nigelb said:

    It would be one of your AI deepfakes.
    That is actually quite a profound point

    In a year or less so many of these vids will become plausibly deniable. Scary

    Verifiable truth will not exist
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,832

    Only one of those is needed (clue: it’s not the plastic or card). Phone and smartwatch - liberate yourself of pointless landfill.
    Many people have reduced their wallet to a slimline job to hold work ID, driving license, 2 cards, and some cash folded away for those places that don't take cards.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,275
    Regarding AI.

    At the moment, what many companies face is not a surplus of skilled labour, but a real shortage.

    AI is an opportunity not a curse. Many people work long and stressful days, caused by a lack of productivity and repetitive administration. AI fits neatly into this space, freeing up time and resource that can be better spent on upskilling people.

    If the world moves to a place where people are working shorter, more productive and more satisfying days then I do not think that in and of itself will be a bad thing. There will be pain points as there are at any point of change, the key there will be identifying the way the market trends are going and making sure people are protected through access to training and development.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    algarkirk said:

    Tell her to separate out issues she can control from issues she can't. If (big if) translation goes extinct as a career, tough, you have no choice but to choose something else. But that does not render all modern languages at all universities either intrinsically or extrinsically useless. Quality of subject in itself, university and course matters much more.

    In general it is a good idea to do something you love for its own sake, rather than something you don't like for reasons that may prove and illusion.
    If she likes Classics, it would do no harm to her career prospects anyway. Whatever happens with AI (which even if only the least out there predictions come about, is going to be enormously disruptive).
  • Roger said:

    People weren't voting for a cat imitator. They were voting for the strongest symbol of support for Gazans and Palestinians that was on show. The way it makes a difference is by news outlets TV newspapers and the hullabaloo surrounding the result making waves throughout the country and possibly beyond. It has been pretty wall to wall so far
    *some people* were voting for it. Most people votes for other candidates or didn't vote.

    But it was a valid question asked. What will Galloway bring to the debate? Will he transform the way that Parliament deals with the war? With whom will he forge alliances? The SNP? Labour? The Tories?

    Galloway is a peacock. With the emphasis on the second syllable.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813

    Fake news.
    Sure. All these GDP figures are fake. Nevertheless China is a US scale power both economically and militarily because it also has a US scale economy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,832
    Nigelb said:

    It would be one of your AI deepfakes.
    Obviously - everyone knows that the Submersible Nuns from the Vatican use Android.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    TOPPING said:

    I have a friend who was a simultaneous translator for could have been the UN or somesuch. They said it was the most stressful thing imaginable and all of them sat there with piles of chocolate and coffee in front of them which they would wolf down as they went.

    The sooner that is replaced by AI the better.
    That's absurd.

    Nothing can replace coffee and chocolate (apologies to @Cyclefree ).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Pulpstar said:

    Eventually everything will move to Google/Apple/X Wallet but in my wallet National Trust, Costco, Yorkshire Wildlife Park all have cards which don't have digital forms.
    Also needed a physical debit card for the plumber's cash withdrawal.
    Tax dodging plumber? And why do you need to keep the card about your person? Mine are all stuffed in a drawer at home.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    edited March 2024

    Indeedy- and not just the retired. All of us would benefit from that. And if AI is going to massively reduce the amount of work humans need to do, moving to a world of gentleman scholar-artists is one of the more wholesome outcomes.

    One of the maddening things is that the bits of the education system that used to do those things pretty well and across the country- FE, Adult Education, the Open University- are basically on their last legs.

    I actually did it when I was 35. Was betting at home and decided to do a university course to fill in the spare time. I did Humanities at Brighton, thinking it would reinforce my existing supposedly left wing views. I didn’t have the intention to change career on the back of it. Arrived just after voting for Gordon Brown in 2010 and left as a member of UKIP!

    Didn’t finish the course in the end, but it was interesting to be back in the classroom.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,294
    FF43 said:

    Sure. All these GDP figures are fake. Nevertheless China is a US scale power both economically and militarily because it also has a US scale economy.
    And also trade. China is the world's biggest importer and exporter. These figures are not "faked" because they can be checked against reciprocal figures in the trading partners

    Being the world's biggest trader itself gives China huge global power, you don't want to upset Beijing because it might stop importing your coal/machines/luxury goods, and then your economy is fucked
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    FF43 said:

    Sure. All these GDP figures are fake. Nevertheless China is a US scale power both economically and militarily because it also has a US scale economy.
    Sorry, no.

    Its GDP is nowhere near that of the US. You can argue the toss on other measures, but GDP? Nope.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813
    Leon said:

    As I have specifically said, I HAVE NOT DONE THIS

    My daughter is very bright (and stubborn) she reads intensely, she has always laughed off my AI thing, and indeed makes Xmas presents for me that tease me about it

    However in recent weeks she has gone off and done her OWN research and realised that her prospective career is indeed in grave jeopardy of automation. So now she is thinking again

    All I am doing is trying to give kind fatherly advice (as best I can, who knows anything) which is basically: Do what you love, get a good degree in that subject, then worry about the future

    Arguably, I should have said MORE. I never explicitly steered her away from this first subject (despite internal doubts). Maybe I should, and she would not be in this pickle now?

    eg If you had an 18 year old daughter convinced she should study foreign languages at uni so she can be a translator as a career, what would you tell her?
    People mostly don't, and shouldn't, study languages to become a translator. In any case translation became a niche profession well before AI.

    You study languages because you have a fascination with other cultures. Which talks to your point: study what interests you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    Just noting that Galloway received fewer votes than did the second placed Tory candidate at the last general election.

    Massive popular mandate it is not.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392
    I can see my action items for today are not going to get done. I'm watching deer in my garden. This is the first time in a while. We used to get a regular visitor but one day he turned up with a head wound full of green bottles and maggots and he was so docile he let me catch him. I sat with him for a couple of hours waiting for a deer charity to turn up, but on inspection of the wound they shot him.

    Sorry that went from joyous to sad.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    edited March 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Just noting that Galloway received fewer votes than did the second placed Tory candidate at the last general election.

    Massive popular mandate it is not.

    That kind of analysis didn’t go down well after the two by elections Labour won recently
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084

    Tax dodging plumber? And why do you need to keep the card about your person? Mine are all stuffed in a drawer at home.
    Plumber's taxes are his responsibility. Tbh I don't generally head out and about with it unless I need it for a specific purpose, just saying that at the moment having a wallet is useful in life.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    Nigelb said:

    That's absurd.

    Nothing can replace coffee and chocolate (apologies to @Cyclefree ).
    Is there some kind of fish that would, if it could, eat itself to death. I would be that fish with coffee and chocolate. Given an unlimited supply of both I could continue until I exploded. 70% from Waitrose on the one hand, and Swiss Water Processed Decaffeinated Columbian on the other. Or rather, in the other.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Many people have reduced their wallet to a slimline job to hold work ID, driving license, 2 cards, and some cash folded away for those places that don't take cards.
    Where are these places? Tax dodging barbers? Places that don’t take cash are more commonplace around here. Indeed I have visited two such establishments today alone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,294
    Nigelb said:

    If she likes Classics, it would do no harm to her career prospects anyway. Whatever happens with AI (which even if only the least out there predictions come about, is going to be enormously disruptive).
    Yes, I agree

    She loves Classics - she would do it for fun if she could - so why not do that? It's still a degree, and it will be from a fine university

    I hope she takes that course, but all I can do is gently advise
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,279
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, sorry, my literal question was silly. I was more just wondering about the PPP measurement. What it's driving at.
    Lots of things are cheaper in China than in the US
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    isam said:


    I actually did it when I was 35. Was betting at home and decided to do a university course to fill in the spare time. I did Humanities at Brighton, thinking it would reinforce my existing supposedly left wing views. I didn’t have the intention to change career on the back of it. Arrived just after voting for Gordon Brown in 2010 and left as a member of UKIP!

    Didn’t finish the course in the end, but it was interesting to be back in the classroom.


    Wasn't that analogous to the journey that Bjorn Lomborg made - started out by looking into the stats for climate change to confirm all the hoo-ha about it and ended up sceptical of many of the claims being made.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,728
    edited March 2024

    Your daughter can study foreign languages for fun and intellectual stimulation and later become a French teacher or spot welder. Most of a foreign language degree is not relevant to translation anyway. It's basically like an English degree but reading foreign books and plays instead of Shakespeare.
    Having worked in the past as a commercial translator (not an interpreter, heaven forbid!) I can say that a degree in foreign languages isn't even particularly useful for translation. More important is specialised knowledge in a particular area or field (as well as, obviously, proficiency in the relevant languages). So, in fact, a degree in something other than languages is, counter-intuitively, more useful for finding translation work.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TOPPING said:

    I think people are missing the point that if you go completely cashless you are well and truly fucked if you want to pop in for Char Siu Rice at Wong Kei in Wardour St.

    Lol. A cross one has to bear :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    Turnout was 39%, not especially low for a By Election. At the 2019 GE it was 60%, pretty low, so the ratio BE/GE is quite high
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Pulpstar said:

    Eventually everything will move to Google/Apple/X Wallet but in my wallet National Trust, Costco, Yorkshire Wildlife Park all have cards which don't have digital forms.
    Also needed a physical debit card for the plumber's cash withdrawal.
    Just take a photo of your cards if those organisations really are that bloody backward.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    kjh said:

    I can see my action items for today are not going to get done. I'm watching deer in my garden. This is the first time in a while. We used to get a regular visitor but one day he turned up with a head wound full of green bottles and maggots and he was so docile he let me catch him. I sat with him for a couple of hours waiting for a deer charity to turn up, but on inspection of the wound they shot him.

    Sorry that went from joyous to sad.

    LOL very funny. I have had, on various facebook groups, people asking where they should take a wounded pigeon that they have found in their garden.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    TOPPING said:

    Wasn't that analogous to the journey that Bjorn Lomborg made - started out by looking into the stats for climate change to confirm all the hoo-ha about it and ended up sceptical of many of the claims being made.
    Sounds like it, although I’d not heard of him til now
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813

    Sorry, no.

    Its GDP is nowhere near that of the US. You can argue the toss on other measures, but GDP? Nope.
    Officially Chinese GDP is about three quarters that of the USA with trend growth significantly higher.

    You can argue which figures are more fake but the economies are of broadly comparable size and bigger than the next one.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Pulpstar said:

    Plumber's taxes are his responsibility. Tbh I don't generally head out and about with it unless I need it for a specific purpose, just saying that at the moment having a wallet is useful in life.
    Go cold turkey. Go cashless. I’ve been cash free for almost a decade now. Trust me. You will never look back.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084

    Go cold turkey. Go cashless. I’ve been cash free for almost a decade now. Trust me. You will never look back.
    I generally do, but we've only got one local chinese that needs cash and I also enjoy having a leak free house. So occasional cash it is.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602

    Except that your prediction wasn’t by PPP, but by GDP. Not only were you wrong, you
    we out by an absolute mile: China is nowhere near the US, even now.

    Just admit it. Be the bigger man. Put your hands up and say: “Sorry, PB, I was wrong.”
    It’s also based on a fake exchange rate
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,279

    Lol. A cross one has to bear :)
    I do the lunch shift on the till at a cafe. There's always 1 or 2 people whose cards (or smartphones) don't work. It happens several times a day that someone tries to pay with a smartphone/watch and the machine says 'please insert card' - usually they then produce the card. Luckily most people around here still carry cash. Then there are the rarer occasions when the machine stops working and we can only take cash...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    edited March 2024

    Sorry, no.

    Its GDP is nowhere near that of the US. You can argue the toss on other measures, but GDP? Nope.
    You are reduced to quibbling on this.

    Leon probably couldn't properly define GDP if he put a day's work into it*. He was quite clearly arguing about broad economic heft, and in those terms he was not wrong.

    As I noted upthread, the more interesting question is whether China can maintain its current status.

    *He probably could, but he'd get bored after 20 minutes.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    GG accuses Labour of criminal acts

    Labour asked “voters to swear on the Quran that they would support the Labour candidate.”

    Victorious MP for Rochdale George Galloway makes an extraordinary claim to #TimesRadio.

    @GeorgeGalloway | @DarrylMorris

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1763506886827995441?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392
    TOPPING said:

    LOL very funny. I have had, on various facebook groups, people asking where they should take a wounded pigeon that they have found in their garden.
    Funny? A pigeon I would dispatch with a blow to the head and leave for the foxes, but a deer? You would leave it to suffer for days rather than getting it treated or destroyed humanely. It has no predators here to dispatch it quickly. I can't believe you would be that cruel when there is something you can do about it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    isam said:

    That kind of analysis didn’t go down well after the two by elections Labour won recently
    Did anyone claim Labour had won some sort of massive mandate at them ?

    As Galloway just did.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Leon said:

    Yes, I agree

    She loves Classics - she would do it for fun if she could - so why not do that? It's still a degree, and it will be from a fine university

    I hope she takes that course, but all I can do is gently advise
    Of course lots of highly paid barristers and solicitors did classics and then the law conversion course, there are still jobs for classics teachers, especially in private schools as we as at top universities and archaeologists, archivists or museum curators and occasionally even PMs have done it do
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,527
    Labour lead at 21pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46% (-)
    CON: 20% (-)
    REF: 14% (+1)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 7% (+1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Feb
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084

    It’s also based on a fake exchange rate
    Looks like it's been floating naturally after fixes at 0.12 and 0.13 up to 2005 and during 2008 ?

    Do you think 7.2 RMB /USD is wrong ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    Leon said:

    Yes, I agree

    She loves Classics - she would do it for fun if she could - so why not do that? It's still a degree, and it will be from a fine university

    I hope she takes that course, but all I can do is gently advise
    If she doesn't blag it like Boris, it's also pretty good training in how to think.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Leon said:

    Income in China varies tremendously by region (much more than the USA)

    A middle class Chinese person in a rich coastal city enjoys a lifestyle comparable to a middle class American (and there are maybe 100m or 200m Chinese people like this)

    The further west you go, the further inland, the poorer it gets, much poorer than anywhere in the USA, even Mississippi
    Yes I'd have thought the poorest Chinese were still poorer than the poorest Americans.

    So perhaps (PP not nominal) GDP per capita gives the best measure of the overall material standard of living of a country's population.

    I wonder who's globally top amongst non-small countries? Eg where are we? And how does China vs USA look on that metric?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    edited March 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Did anyone claim Labour had won some sort of massive mandate at them ?

    As Galloway just did.
    I can’t remember what Labour supporters said, they must have made some claim or other. But when I noted that they had received 5,000 votes less than at the GE in one of them, and added 100 in the other, whereas Blair’s party in 1996 was piling on thousands of new votes in by elections, it didn’t go down well
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour lead at 21pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46% (-)
    CON: 20% (-)
    REF: 14% (+1)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 7% (+1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Feb

    So according to Yougov Reform is now doing better even than UKIP did in 2015
  • kinabalu said:

    Yes I'd have thought the poorest Chinese were still poorer than the poorest Americans.

    So perhaps (PP not nominal) GDP per capita gives the best measure of the overall material standard of living of a country's population.

    I wonder who's globally top amongst non-small countries? Eg where are we? And how does China vs USA look on that metric?
    It's notable that China is also not far behind the US in life expectancy and steadily closing the gap:

    https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    TOPPING said:

    Wasn't that analogous to the journey that Bjorn Lomborg made - started out by looking into the stats for climate change to confirm all the hoo-ha about it and ended up sceptical of many of the claims being made.
    Yes, and he turned out to be entirely wrong in his own predictions.
    His predictions about the costs of renewable energy from a decade back are now just risible.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    HYUFD said:

    So according to Yougov Reform is now doing better even than UKIP did in 2015
    But they never do well in actual elections. There is something odd about Reform’s VI numbers. I was an extremely enthusiastic Kipper in 2012-
    2016, but can’t get worked up about REFUK at all. Maybe this plays into a kind of stupid appeal to tradition and authority, but what if REFUK won the GE, or were even the opposition and there was another pandemic?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Sean_F said:

    Just a bit of fun, but the swing from Con to Lab was 13%.
    Swing from Labour to Conservative I think you mean?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour lead at 21pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46% (-)
    CON: 20% (-)
    REF: 14% (+1)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 7% (+1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Feb

    26?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    isam said:

    I can’t remember what Labour supporters said, they must have made some claim or other. But when I noted that they had received 5,000 votes less than at the GE in one of them, and added 100 in the other, whereas Blair’s party in 1996 was piling on thousands of new votes in by elections, it didn’t go down well
    Didn't bother me.
    But they were likely of slightly more predictive value than is Rochdale.

    Let's see what happens to Galloway at the next election, shall we ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    kjh said:

    Funny? A pigeon I would dispatch with a blow to the head and leave for the foxes, but a deer? You would leave it to suffer for days rather than getting it treated or destroyed humanely. It has no predators here to dispatch it quickly. I can't believe you would be that cruel when there is something you can do about it.
    Bloody hell, calm down sugartits. I thought your story was funny and then I segued into my own story which I thought was also funny.

    Or to help you with comprehension:

    I thought your story was funny.
    I have a story which I think is funny.

    Isn't comprehension useful when contributing to and reading posts on PB.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    Nigelb said:

    Yes, and he turned out to be entirely wrong in his own predictions.
    His predictions about the costs of renewable energy from a decade back are now just risible.
    What did he say and what happened.

    Not surprised at all that predictions about a decade hence are wrong. Glad to see you appreciate how difficult predicting the future is.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113

    It's notable that China is also not far behind the US in life expectancy and steadily closing the gap:

    https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/
    As others have said, the problem is that you cannot trust figures from China. As with Russia from the 1960s to the 1980s, statistics frequently match what the rulers want to display, rather than the reality.

    For instance, do you believe only ~60,000 people died of Covid in China?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,960
    edited March 2024

    Turnout was 39.7% - very respectable for a by-election. So we can't really say it's because an abnormal number of people sat it out.

    And all the theories about how people would vote Labour for the brand or because they hadn't been following the news, came to nothing
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kamski said:

    I do the lunch shift on the till at a cafe. There's always 1 or 2 people whose cards (or smartphones) don't work. It happens several times a day that someone tries to pay with a smartphone/watch and the machine says 'please insert card' - usually they then produce the card. Luckily most people around here still carry cash. Then there are the rarer occasions when the machine stops working and we can only take cash...
    Weird. I only hear these anecdotes on PB. Never in real life. And I should know, because I use ApplePay exclusively. Don’t even carry a card.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392
    TOPPING said:

    Bloody hell, calm down sugartits. I thought your story was funny and then I segued into my own story which I thought was also funny.

    Or to help you with comprehension:

    I thought your story was funny.
    I have a story which I think is funny.

    Isn't comprehension useful when contributing to and reading posts on PB.
    Sorry if I completely misinterpreted @TOPPING although I don't understand what was funny in my post. It wasn't meant to be.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    isam said:

    26?
    Raynergate kicking in.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,219
    IanB2 said:

    And all the theories about how people would vote Labour for the brand or because they hadn't been following the news, came to nothing
    Unless people hadn't been following the news and voted against Labour (as they thought). It would be ironic if the guy ditched by Labour for being anti-semitic was not elected due to anti-semitic/pro palestine sentiment causing people to vote against Labour :lol:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,690
    HYUFD said:

    So according to Yougov Reform is now doing better even than UKIP did in 2015
    LLG:RefCon is now 60:34 vs 61:33 last time.
    Tories have been lucky so far never to drop below 20% and trigger another backbench panic. Galloway's win yesterday will have given them a bit of (false) comfort too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113

    Weird. I only hear these anecdotes on PB. Never in real life. And I should know, because I use ApplePay exclusively. Don’t even carry a card.
    Do you actually talk to anyone off PB? ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    I wonder why @Pulpstar ‘s plumber and local takeaway accept only cash.

    I can’t quite put my finger on it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,219
    isam said:


    I actually did it when I was 35. Was betting at home and decided to do a university course to fill in the spare time. I did Humanities at Brighton, thinking it would reinforce my existing supposedly left wing views. I didn’t have the intention to change career on the back of it. Arrived just after voting for Gordon Brown in 2010 and left as a member of UKIP!

    Didn’t finish the course in the end, but it was interesting to be back in the classroom.


    Blimey. My colleagues in the woke lefty brainwashing academic cabal (Brighton branch) did a shit job then, didn't they? :wink:

    We will look for learnings and endeavour to do better!
  • TOPPING said:

    What did he say and what happened.

    Not surprised at all that predictions about a decade hence are wrong. Glad to see you appreciate how difficult predicting the future is.
    Especially so when, like Lomberg, you have a poor understanding of the underlying issues and instead rely completely on naive statistical analysis and extrapolation.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    Indeedy- and not just the retired. All of us would benefit from that. And if AI is going to massively reduce the amount of work humans need to do, moving to a world of gentleman scholar-artists is one of the more wholesome outcomes.

    One of the maddening things is that the bits of the education system that used to do those things pretty well and across the country- FE, Adult Education, the Open University- are basically on their last legs.
    That's why the U3a is growing in popularity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,895
    TOPPING said:

    What did he say and what happened.

    Not surprised at all that predictions about a decade hence are wrong. Glad to see you appreciate how difficult predicting the future is.
    The rapidly falling costs of renewables was one of the easier ones, though.
    He was professing a similar certainty to the predictions he was critiquing. And he's turned out to be wrong.

    I don't have a problem with genuine scepticism - as you say, predictions is difficult. But he was selling his own prospectus.
This discussion has been closed.