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Sir Keir Starmer suffers from electoral dysfunction, again – politicalbetting.com
Sir Keir Starmer suffers from electoral dysfunction, again – politicalbetting.com
Rochdale parliamentary by-election, result: WPB: 39.7% (+39.7) IND: 21.3% (+21.3) CON: 12.0% (-22.0) LAB: 7.7% (-48.4) LDEM: 7.0% (-0.6) REF: 6.3% (+6.3) Workers Party of Britain (George Galloway) GAIN from Labour.
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This would have gone well beyond just Muslims. It was one of the most distressing sights I've seen. The Israelis action has now moved way beyond security into outright barbarism.
Labour.
Makes me want to turn over and go to sleep again but the day must be faced.
The survey put the SNP on 38 per cent (up two points), Labour on 33 per cent (down one point) and the Liberal Democrats on 8 per cent (no change).
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scottish-tories-keep-the-faith-as-they-sink-to-new-low-in-polls-xmfnfqrqd
If you don’t represent that view, you unlock the door for people like Galloway. People want the leading parties to take a different position on Gaza. Why on Earth leaders couldn’t call for a ceasefire and peaceful remedies is quite beyond me.
This is not rocket science.
And it’s a dismal wet morning in late winter and Geo Galloway is a new sectarian MP
But you made me laugh so 👍
Even more than BoJo, Galloway has the charisma to get people to vote for him once... If not to keep them voting for him, or maintain any other sort of relationship.
We should probably all be grateful for that.
F1: practice results not as anticipated. Still think Verstappen's likely the man to beat in the race but qualifying could certainly be very close.
SKS has lost more Parliamentary By Elections in his 4 year tenure than Jezza in his 4 year tenure as LOTO has he not?
My eldest daughter has got offers from all the universities she wanted. Including some very very good ones
Normally that’s a Yay, right?
Except she is now convinced the career she wanted to do will be automated by AI within 5-10 years so her degree will be useless
This is not my doing btw. She’s been a total AI skeptic until very recently, indeed she’s scoffed at some of my predictions
I don’t know what to advise her. I’ve told her to do the degree that will make her happy - engage her intellectually - maybe no one will have a job in 10 years, we just don’t know
So AI is now seriously impacting human lives and crucial decisions and it hasn’t even really arrived yet
Brace
For all that, and perhaps even because of it, AI is going to be hugely disruptive.
We’ve not seen the start of it. Brace indeed.
I think Labour’s position on this is reasonable diplomatically although I think the Lib Dems have the positioning best worked out. But nobody will thank them.
The one silver lining, considering the by-election stats, is that the conservatives were down 22%.
This is true, but Jeremy Corbyn isn’t far off being a second.
The other thing about Galloway is that, despite his many and manifold flaws, he knows how to work a crowd.
I suggest that if your daughter is doing a degree, which would encourage her to think, and to question, then the degree, she takes will stand in good state, whether or not technology has overtaken her particular subject.
The very best of luck to her; granddaughter number two has this morning sent off two uni applications. They are Australian universities so they don’t start until February next year, by which time she will have her IB results.
Galloway is a charismatic campaigner, in the same league as Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.
I am reminded of a quotation from some years ago "the problem of Atheism is not that people believe in nothing, it's that they will believe in anything".
The dull politics that we have at the moment over important issues like the economy and public services is very uninspiring, with little to choose between parties. Neither side shows any vision as an alternative.
So we are left with different forms of Populism, whether from the left with Galloway, or from the Culture War of Braverman. People want something more interesting than the grey blob that is Starmer or Sunak, even when sold by a snake oil salesman.
Trump was hoping to make bigly money from Truth Social, but his co-founders are suing him.
Some posters have a rather poor history of predictions, however much they hype themselves (and their predictions) up.
No-one seriously gives a shit about Gaza.
She is very bright and she'd now genned up on AI and she is convinced that career could very easily not happen: it's in a cognitive field ripe for automation. She's correct, to my mind
Her passion is Classics. Totally pointless, totally non vocational, but she REALLY likes it. I've told her to go for that. Better to spend three years having intellectual fun, and let the future go hang, there's a 40% chance the computers will turn us all into pets by 2033, anyway
Not much to get excited about for REFUK, LDs or Greens either, but also in line with recent polls and by-elections.
We'll have all jobs in 10 years time, and you don't want her disqualified out of the good ones because she didn't bother to get a tertiary education.
Or are you referring to the rizz meister Ed Davey? Definitely not a gray man.
Under SKS Lab won 12/22 ie 54.54% including 2 horrendous losses of seats won easily by Jezza
I agree: it's coming and in spite of the hype and misunderstanding it's impact will be profound and far-reaching (like web 1.0). William Gibson referred ambiguously to 'The Jackpot' in his book The Peripheral and in the book (not the Netflix series), this was never explained but hinted at whole swathes of humanity essentially made redundant (in every sense).
And in the short term, it's going to be boring and fairly unpleasant for a lot of us. Much like @Leon's weight loss plan.
I do care about the threat from Iran, Russia and China.
PB will be here for you when Starmer does what Corbyn never achieved, winning a general election.
Neither you nor I think it should weigh in voters minds, but it clearly does.
The first fireside chat was about banking. He explained all that he had done in terms of emergency legislation and in providing banks with cash and then it was up to the American people. Who came out in great queues the next day after the "bank holiday" to put their money back in the banks, thus ending that part of the crisis.
FDR is probably the greatest democratic politician of all time so it is an unfair test but the difference between the hope and inspiration that he offered desperate people and what Sunak and Starmer offer today was painful to even think about.
It's looking as though at least some of the leak yesterday wrt Horner is real.
And if the data is real, then either:
*) He is bang to rights, and Red Bull covered it up.
*) Red Bull's employment rules are so lax as to allow some fairly egregious behaviour.
I daresay we'll hear more over this weekend and the next; but it's not looking good for Horner, and by extension, Red Bull.
Don't extrapolate.
*) There's very little we can do about it;
*) It has very little effect on our country;
*) There is right and wrong on both sides of that conflict. not just one.
*) There is a lot of anti-Semitism hiding on the pro-Palestinian side.
*) History.
Whether Argentina revives or collapses into Mad Max failed state chaos is yet to be seen.
Wes Streeting will go if Israel is still genociding at the next GE and Cooper is under serious pressure.
Great acceptance speech by GG btw love the way he tells SKS how it is and the reason why he won.
Labour was very unlucky/careless to be represented by a candidate it had banned.
Edit except that Labour has a problem on Palestine/Gaza, which Starmer could have at least partially avoided if he had been lighter of foot at the start.
Sadly, I am not at all sure we will "all have jobs in ten years". We will see unemployment in certain jobs begin to pick up in the next 2-4 years as AI kicks in, and it will speedily spread and accelerate from there
eg
"Klarna started using AI last month for customer support. Here's how it went:
-The AI assistant has had 2.3 million conversations, two-thirds of Klarna’s customer service chats
-It is doing the equivalent work of 700 full-time agents
-It is on par with human agents in regard to customer satisfaction score
-It is more accurate in errand resolution, leading to a 25% drop in repeat inquiries
-Customers now resolve their errands in less than 2 mins compared to 11 mins previously
-It’s available in 23 markets, 24/7 and communicates in more than 35 languages
-It’s estimated to drive a $40 million USD in profit improvement to Klarna in 2024"
https://x.com/JamesPelton18/status/1763347278637531226?s=20
One computer taking 700 jobs. Klarna were so shocked by this they made the announcement as a kind of warning
To an extent there's a bit of social media hype about it as the latest big thing, that follows from #metoo, #BLM, etc., but there's no serious substance to it.
In 2015 UKIP polled nearly 19% so par in line with polls would have been at least 15% and they should really have done a lot better than that with an open door. In reality they did even worse than 2019, down 2%.
One thought I have is that the 2019 Brexit Party vote in Labour areas might partly returned to Labour, and there is less of a Consrvative vote to leak away to them to compensate. Which means their support is proportionately higher in Tory areas. But in the last two by-elections in Tory seats the Reform vote was also below par for polling. So I'm inclined to think that much of their support is soft and will revert to Conservative by the GE and they will be at about 5% when votes are counted.
It was spot on advice and made me, once again, regret my dull, pragmatic, choice of law.
You really are not only a nasty sectarian you also are an idiot.
This is a serious moment for Starmer. He has put all his eggs in one basket. He is the champion of all things Israeli. A word out of place and your career as a Labour candidate is over. To the outsider he appears to have as little interest in the Palestinians as Sunak. The Israelis have put him in a very difficult place. Thanks to the last three months the plight of the Palestinians is now becoming widely known. Hamas have in many ways acted as a cover for it. It is more obvious in the West Bank where there is no Hamas. Israel is quite simply an apartheid state and to be on the wrong side of it is not a good look for a Labour leader
It could be like the advent of the car, electricity, the industrial revolution, the Renaissance, and fire, all at once, with extra scary bits as we wonder if the robots will kill us
OR it may all a load of hype and it will be more like the first Blackberry
Truth is probably nearer the more epochal scenarios
The good news is that the recipient of that was George Galloway - a political Mayfly who emerges for a couple of days before disappearing back into the deep to await the next opportunity to breed his version of discord.
Fox jr2 is neither Islamist nor anti-semite, but won't be voting Labour in his East London constituency because of Starmers policy on Gaza. He is inclined to LD or possibly Greens.
I am very uninspired by Starmer, and highly suspicious of Streeting, so no Labour supporter but it is not over Gaza. I have been given pause for thought in terms of voting because even shire Leics which has been blue for a century may turn red at the GE on recent polling, and it would be fun to bury the Tories as a party here.
I mean, how the f*** does that happen?
I had my whole career planned in high school, did the degree, didn't get the job (my buddy did as it happens)
I did meet people at university who offered me various jobs and haven't had a day out of work since
Edit/ Or, on second thoughts, don't.
To those labour supporters who say it was a terrible night for the conservatives I think labour have more to be worried about not least as Reform did very poorly
Starving people are desperate, and do desperate things. It wouldn't have been a panic without that factor, and the IDF set that up.
And so many areas of human life are gonne be impacted, it's not just a few white collar jobs, it is millions and millions of jobs, from call centre workers to accountants and laywers and bankers, to aspiring actors, writers, musicians - almost anyone
What the F are we all gonna do?!
Only an idiot would think that were not so. Wesley is in serious danger trust me for the same reason with an excellent pro Palestinian independent already in place as his main rival.
Last night was very profitable for me from a betting point of view but in hindsight I shouldn't have covered my winnings by going green on Lab too as they only came 4th.
SKS is the only leader of the opposition in history to hand pick his shortlist in a safe seat and finish 4th
Certainly Starmer made a mistake with his messaging initially . Luckily for Labour there’s only one Galloway .