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Is this a by-election first? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited March 12 in General
Is this a by-election first? – politicalbetting.com

From the nomination papers: pic.twitter.com/5C4qg5y2PH

Read the full story here

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    Perhaps this explains the politicians we get?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,195

    Perhaps this explains the politicians we get?

    On the positive side she won't be elected. Apart from that, jeez.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,841
    Labour majorites:

    5,000 in Kingswood
    3,000 in Wellingborough.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,195
    In other exciting news Trump lost yet again in court today and now has to face a trial on 25th March which may tie him to a Manhattan court room for several weeks. And he may, of course, be convicted.

    Arguably even more bizarre that he is the nailed on nominee.
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    Kingswood = Labour by 3,000
    Wellingborough= Labour by 2,000
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,183
    @rcs1000 Less than before 2005, but still grandfathered in:

    https://vinepair.com/wine-blog/loophole-california-champagne-legal/
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    ...
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,499
    edited February 15
    Off topic, but some of you may find this amusing and/or distressing.

    Washington state has mailed out the voter's guide for the presidential primary. Each candidate submitted a photo to go with their profile.
    https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/2024 Presidential Primary Voters Pamphlet - Edition 1 - English.pdf?uid=65ce560f7cda3

    All of the candidates used photos with conventional smiles, except the Loser. I interpret his photo as an attempt to look intimidating. (YMMV)
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    PJHPJH Posts: 485
    I'll be looking at the Reform vote to see if the polls are right. UKIP got 19% in Wellingborough and 15% in Kingswood in 2015, so a couple of % off each of those should be about right. In fact in by-election with protest voting, they ought to do better than that really; but I would suggest 15 and 12 would be about par for the polls.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    kinabalu said:

    But when Labour did make a radically different offer you hated that too.

    A cheerleader for the Iranian ayatollahs promising to solve everything with printed money was a far worse alternative even than the dismal Continuity Sunak offer with which are presently confronted.

    We don't need a Marxist-Leninist revolution. The problem is, of course, that even the most modest baby steps towards social democracy appear anathema to Corbyn's successors.

    To govern is to choose. Labour could choose redistribution. Instead, they're choosing to offer to maintain the existing structures of power and wealth, claiming that they can do so to a higher standard than the Conservatives.

    If you're going to have a contest between faux and real Tories, don't be surprised if quite a lot of voters either can't be arsed to turn out or decide they might as well stick with the genuine article.
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    Kingswood: Lab 6,200
    Wellingborough: Lab 3,100
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    Boningborough.

    Can Bone's GF please finish third? Pleeeeease?
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    Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 80
    edited February 15
    Private Eye (or at least I think it was) covered the CVs of some of folk who nominated the Conservative candidate for Wellingborough.

    I can’t remember all the wonderful back stories of the folks that backed the candidate - but they were a fruity bunch. The one I remember, aside from the ex-wife, is former Northampton MP Brian Binley’s son Matthew who got his mum to lie about the time he got drunk and crashed his car. I think both got convicted.

    “Tell me your company, and I will tell you what you are” and all that, [EDIT FOR THE PROPER QUOTE]
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359

    Off topic, but some of you may find this amusing and/or distressing.

    Washington state has mailed out the voter's guide for the presidential primary. Each candidate submitted a photo to go with their profile.
    https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/2024 Presidential Primary Voters Pamphlet - Edition 1 - English.pdf?uid=65ce560f7cda3

    All of the candidates used photos with conventional smiles, except the Loser. I interpret his photo as an attempt to look intimidating. (YMMV)

    Standard Trump expression - it's become quite a visual icon following his mugshot. I'm not surprised he executed the same look here.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    TSE isn't about is he? Anyway I don't know if anyone can advise me. I'm sorting out my new mortgage but I'm a bit concerned because they want to know where the cash I'm paying down is coming from and have asked for a load of bank statements.

    What bothers me is that it's all in a current account and I wonder if that might look a bit odd? I've steadily been accumulating £300-400 a month so now there is about £26k in total.

    The other thing is that they need a local solicitor to verify my address. I don't have one and wondering how I get that done. Presumably I'll have to somehow prove to them that I live where I live so that they can verify me for the mortgage?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    PJH said:

    I'll be looking at the Reform vote to see if the polls are right. UKIP got 19% in Wellingborough and 15% in Kingswood in 2015, so a couple of % off each of those should be about right. In fact in by-election with protest voting, they ought to do better than that really; but I would suggest 15 and 12 would be about par for the polls.

    Far more interesting than the headline result (which I predict as Kingswood Lab by 2,500, Wellingborough Con by 1,200). I reckon Ref will manage 12% in each.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    The Tory Party.
    F***ing each other royally.
    And the country.
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    TSE isn't about is he? Anyway I don't know if anyone can advise me. I'm sorting out my new mortgage but I'm a bit concerned because they want to know where the cash I'm paying down is coming from and have asked for a load of bank statements.

    What bothers me is that it's all in a current account and I wonder if that might look a bit odd? I've steadily been accumulating £300-400 a month so now there is about £26k in total.

    The other thing is that they need a local solicitor to verify my address. I don't have one and wondering how I get that done. Presumably I'll have to somehow prove to them that I live where I live so that they can verify me for the mortgage?

    So long as you've got an audit trail showing where the £300-400 a month was coming from you'll be fine.

    As for verification, you'll need one from List 1 and two from List 2

    List 1

    Personal Identity
    Current signed Passport
    Current EU or UK photocard driving license
    Residence Permit issued by the Home Office together with own country’s passport
    Armed Forces ID card
    EU member state identity card

    List 2

    Recent utility bill or bank statement or mortgage statement with the current address (no more than three months old)
    Current UK driving license
    Council Tax bill for the current year
    Confirmation from the Electoral Register or
    local Council rent card or tenancy agreement
    Pension or State Benefit recent letter
    HMRC PAYE Coding Notice (recent)
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359
    edited February 15
    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    TSE - Yeah I've done all the identity verification. This is on top of that. And also needing a solicitor to verify my address as my broker has gone awol.
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    TSE - Yeah I've done all the identity verification. This is on top of that. And also needing a solicitor to verify my address as my broker has gone awol.

    At the top of the page is find a solicitor, enter your postcode and it'll give you a few options.

    https://solicitors.lawsociety.org.uk/
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    But when Labour did make a radically different offer you hated that too.

    A cheerleader for the Iranian ayatollahs promising to solve everything with printed money was a far worse alternative even than the dismal Continuity Sunak offer with which are presently confronted.

    We don't need a Marxist-Leninist revolution. The problem is, of course, that even the most modest baby steps towards social democracy appear anathema to Corbyn's successors.

    To govern is to choose. Labour could choose redistribution. Instead, they're choosing to offer to maintain the existing structures of power and wealth, claiming that they can do so to a higher standard than the Conservatives.

    If you're going to have a contest between faux and real Tories, don't be surprised if quite a lot of voters either can't be arsed to turn out or decide they might as well stick with the genuine article.
    So you've definitely shifted left. You sound almost like BJO and 148 now. I was skeptical because you seem to specialise in excoriating the Labour Party and its voters. It's an unusual person that hates both Corbyn Labour and Starmer Labour, but ok I'll buy it.
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 212

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132

    I would just comment that last year my wife and I received a 10.1% increase in our state pension, and in April we receive a further 8.5% on that increased pension

    This is not sustainable, but it seems all parties are set on confirming the triple lock

    70 plus retirement age looms if this cannot be addressed

    The entire point of the triple lock is to concentrate whatever wealth is left in the country in the hands of the elderly, at the expense of the working age population. We passed the point at which pensioner incomes, once housing costs are factored in, surpassed those of working households several years ago, and the disparity must necessarily widen in every single year when earnings growth doesn't exceed both the rate of inflation and 2.5%.

    The net result is that, whilst a substantial minority of older people - those stuck in care homes, and most of those still renting - find themselves suffering as badly or worse than the rest of us, the majority who are outright homeowners, and in receipt not merely of the state pension but also of generous old-fashioned final salary schemes in most cases, have been insulated from most of the worse effects of austerity, whilst accumulating enormous sums in unearned asset wealth as house prices continue to inflate.

    The essential truth is that most pensioners live comfortable lifestyles, in large part off the backs of the labour of younger people (whose incomes are squeezed very hard indeed by a combination of taxation and excruciating housing costs.) They're not these stereotypical little old ladies, shivering in cold rooms, unable to afford heating and living off a plate of sandwiches and a cup of tea a day. Retired stockbrokers living in million pound houses in Southern England do not need 10% state pension hikes each year whilst our worthless politicians continue to insist that there is no more money to help the estimated three in ten of all the nation's children who live in poverty. And by God old age is tough, and people living through it need and deserve to be treated well, but the attitude that reaching a certain number means that you are entitled to unlimited largesse at the expense of other people, and that you should no longer be expected to contribute anything, is way too prevalent. It would be tolerable if pensioners were 1% of the population, but it's complete lunacy when they are 20% and climbing.

    And you're quite right, it's not sustainable. At all. Which is why the middle-aged will find the date at which the state handout becomes payable recedes ever further into the distance (I'm planning on the basis that I won't get mine until I'm at least 70,) and a young person starting work today may not get it at all. As we all know, ours is a country that values its elderly (provided that they have lots of money) but regards its young people with total contempt. The variance in attitudes between spending on universal pension entitlements (essential, hallmark of a decent society, etc. etc.) and spending on replacing antiquated and rotten school buildings (unaffordable, the kids will have to put up with portakabins) tells you everything you need to know about Britain. This is a vile country.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    The polls have closed.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    How is that radical? Why accept the massive compromises on everything from waterways to membership fees to foreign affairs, just for the privilege of (reciprocal) unfettered access to a market whose share of world GDP dwindles year on year? And unfettered for goods only - it was never a free market in services where British firms performed better. Single market membership was a sticking plaster to avoid necessary reforms back in 1973, and it would be the same now.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359

    The Tories missed a trick in the Wellingborough byelection. Simply restrict the franchise to people who had seen Peter's Bone.

    So extending the franchise then?

    *only joking Peter
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @benrileysmith

    The by-election polls are **closed**

    And so expectation management begins

    Tory source sounding v downbeat

    “These by-elections were always going to be hard. The Government of the day rarely wins by-elections.”

    We’ll find out in the wee hours tonight.
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 212

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    How is that radical? Why accept the massive compromises on everything from waterways to membership fees to foreign affairs, just for the privilege of (reciprocal) unfettered access to a market whose share of world GDP dwindles year on year? And unfettered for goods only - it was never a free market in services where British firms performed better. Single market membership was a sticking plaster to avoid necessary reforms back in 1973, and it would be the same now.
    Are you saying people would shrug their shoulders at it?

    We have tried the Truss way and it was a disaster. Libertarianism won't work. True believers will keep pushing for it forever.. but that won't work. Want a model that will work in europelook at Danish flexicurity. An export driven knowledge society with close public private collaboration. They have 5% growth and the happiest population in the world.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    How is that radical? Why accept the massive compromises on everything from waterways to membership fees to foreign affairs, just for the privilege of (reciprocal) unfettered access to a market whose share of world GDP dwindles year on year? And unfettered for goods only - it was never a free market in services where British firms performed better. Single market membership was a sticking plaster to avoid necessary reforms back in 1973, and it would be the same now.
    Are you saying people would shrug their shoulders at it?

    We have tried the Truss way and it was a disaster. Libertarianism won't work. True believers will keep pushing for it forever.. but that won't work. Want a model that will work in europelook at Danish flexicurity. An export driven knowledge society with close public private collaboration. They have 5% growth and the happiest population in the world.
    Bollocks we have!! Taxes are at a post-war high, how is that 'trying it the Truss way'? We tax cigarettes deliberately high to discourage people from buying cigarettes. What do you think happens when we tax economic activity? Use some basic logic.
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 212

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    How is that radical? Why accept the massive compromises on everything from waterways to membership fees to foreign affairs, just for the privilege of (reciprocal) unfettered access to a market whose share of world GDP dwindles year on year? And unfettered for goods only - it was never a free market in services where British firms performed better. Single market membership was a sticking plaster to avoid necessary reforms back in 1973, and it would be the same now.
    Are you saying people would shrug their shoulders at it?

    We have tried the Truss way and it was a disaster. Libertarianism won't work. True believers will keep pushing for it forever.. but that won't work. Want a model that will work in europelook at Danish flexicurity. An export driven knowledge society with close public private collaboration. They have 5% growth and the happiest population in the world.
    Bollocks we have!! Taxes are at a post-war high, how is that 'trying it the Truss way'? We tax cigarettes deliberately high to discourage people from buying cigarettes. What do you think happens when we tax economic activity? Use some basic logic.
    Markets just don't like the Truss way ... that is a proven fact. You might not like it, but reality rejects your strategy. Sorry.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    How is that radical? Why accept the massive compromises on everything from waterways to membership fees to foreign affairs, just for the privilege of (reciprocal) unfettered access to a market whose share of world GDP dwindles year on year? And unfettered for goods only - it was never a free market in services where British firms performed better. Single market membership was a sticking plaster to avoid necessary reforms back in 1973, and it would be the same now.
    Are you saying people would shrug their shoulders at it?

    We have tried the Truss way and it was a disaster. Libertarianism won't work. True believers will keep pushing for it forever.. but that won't work. Want a model that will work in europelook at Danish flexicurity. An export driven knowledge society with close public private collaboration. They have 5% growth and the happiest population in the world.
    Bollocks we have!! Taxes are at a post-war high, how is that 'trying it the Truss way'? We tax cigarettes deliberately high to discourage people from buying cigarettes. What do you think happens when we tax economic activity? Use some basic logic.
    Markets just don't like the Truss way ... that is a proven fact. You might not like it, but reality rejects your strategy. Sorry.
    Ah OK, clearly not seriously attempting (or capable?) to deal with issues around the economy at a level deeper than DM Headline or a Tweet. Never mind, I need an early night anyway.
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    RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77
    The point being missed is that if you really want to raise the sort of sums needed you would need to tax everyone who owns a home, not merely pensioners. And you'd probably also need to say that everyone with their own home will have to use it to pay for their own social/health care when they get into old age.

    How many people will vote for this would be an interesting exercise.

    Not that either is likely to happen. Labour have ditched any proposal over social care despite it being the single most important thing they could do to relieve pressure on the NHS.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476
    BREAKING: DOJ has charged the informant who provided derogatory informaton about Hunter and Joe Biden with "false statements" and obstruction.
    https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1758240350559240321
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    How is that radical? Why accept the massive compromises on everything from waterways to membership fees to foreign affairs, just for the privilege of (reciprocal) unfettered access to a market whose share of world GDP dwindles year on year? And unfettered for goods only - it was never a free market in services where British firms performed better. Single market membership was a sticking plaster to avoid necessary reforms back in 1973, and it would be the same now.
    Are you saying people would shrug their shoulders at it?

    We have tried the Truss way and it was a disaster. Libertarianism won't work. True believers will keep pushing for it forever.. but that won't work. Want a model that will work in europelook at Danish flexicurity. An export driven knowledge society with close public private collaboration. They have 5% growth and the happiest population in the world.
    Bollocks we have!! Taxes are at a post-war high, how is that 'trying it the Truss way'? We tax cigarettes deliberately high to discourage people from buying cigarettes. What do you think happens when we tax economic activity? Use some basic logic.
    Markets just don't like the Truss way ... that is a proven fact. You might not like it, but reality rejects your strategy. Sorry.
    Ah OK, clearly not seriously attempting (or capable?) to deal with issues around the economy at a level deeper than DM Headline or a Tweet. Never mind, I need an early night anyway.
    Sadly, neither was Liz.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,178
    Ok, so I have been out all day and have now updated myself on what has been happening here

    Firstly and most importantly, dreadful news for you Mike, you and your family have my sympathy and best wishes.

    Secondly - very much so - the by elections.

    Kingswood - LAB to win easily 20% swing usual for a by election not very exciting.

    Wellingborough - a different story here and a complete CON meltdown. CON vote maybe down from 60 to 20%, maybe only half of that to LAB so a 30% swing still the worst CON by election result of all time.

    Time for Rishi to call the GE 2 May

    I'm not staying up for this tonight so best wishes to all site participants goodnight.
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    Yes I am sucker in that I still watch - and roar laughing at - The Apprentice.

    Glad to see that tonight's loser was cancelled from the You're Fired. I would have fired him in week 1 for his "yes" reaction when he thought the boys had won (he thought that a 50% refund cut their profit in half. No, it cuts your revenue in half which means you lose, moron).

    But he was edited out of the revue show that followed due to anti-semitic tweets made *after* he departed from the show...
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 212

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    How is that radical? Why accept the massive compromises on everything from waterways to membership fees to foreign affairs, just for the privilege of (reciprocal) unfettered access to a market whose share of world GDP dwindles year on year? And unfettered for goods only - it was never a free market in services where British firms performed better. Single market membership was a sticking plaster to avoid necessary reforms back in 1973, and it would be the same now.
    Are you saying people would shrug their shoulders at it?

    We have tried the Truss way and it was a disaster. Libertarianism won't work. True believers will keep pushing for it forever.. but that won't work. Want a model that will work in europelook at Danish flexicurity. An export driven knowledge society with close public private collaboration. They have 5% growth and the happiest population in the world.
    Bollocks we have!! Taxes are at a post-war high, how is that 'trying it the Truss way'? We tax cigarettes deliberately high to discourage people from buying cigarettes. What do you think happens when we tax economic activity? Use some basic logic.
    Markets just don't like the Truss way ... that is a proven fact. You might not like it, but reality rejects your strategy. Sorry.
    Ah OK, clearly not seriously attempting (or capable?) to deal with issues around the economy at a level deeper than DM Headline or a Tweet. Never mind, I need an early night anyway.
    Look, a country needs functioning institutions and investment in its citizens to be productive. Tory austerity has hollowed out both. Decades of underinvestment is the cause and you libertarians want to go even further with that. People are sick and under educated in a country that is totally disorganized and unpredicatble. Nothing works and that includes its its people. That needs solving before the economy can fire on all cylinders. Secondly, a country needs access to its core markets and that is its neighbours.... whether you like it or no, long-distancee rickety supply chains past restless tribes and unfriendly regimes is a thing of the past... here is a news flash: globalization is stooone dead. In the age of great power competition, regionalisation is the order of the day. You plan would have been brilliant in 1995. In 2024 that is just risky exposure. I am just not buying the idea that individual motivation and small state is the be all and end all of economic growth. Sub Sahara is full of low tax, small states and highly motivated people... doesn't mean economies flourish.
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    VD on Newsnight ripping some Tory MP apart over the Tory TwiX feed which has completely misrepresented Sadiq Khan. MP blames CCHQ.
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,919
    dixiedean said:

    The polls have closed.

    That feels quite final. Like an epitaph on the 21st century.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    How is that radical? Why accept the massive compromises on everything from waterways to membership fees to foreign affairs, just for the privilege of (reciprocal) unfettered access to a market whose share of world GDP dwindles year on year? And unfettered for goods only - it was never a free market in services where British firms performed better. Single market membership was a sticking plaster to avoid necessary reforms back in 1973, and it would be the same now.
    Pray tell, what are the massive compromises on waterways?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    edited February 15
    I don't have any particular insights but expect Lab gains in both with swings of 20%+ in each on low turnouts. Reform to flop in Kingswood and get 11% in Wellingborough.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Foxy said:

    I don't have any particular insights but expect Lab gains in both with swings of 20%+ in each on low turnouts. Reform to flop in Kingsbridge and get 11% in Wellingborough.

    The chopped the wood down and built a bridge?
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,919
    Foxy said:

    TSE isn't about is he? Anyway I don't know if anyone can advise me. I'm sorting out my new mortgage but I'm a bit concerned because they want to know where the cash I'm paying down is coming from and have asked for a load of bank statements.

    What bothers me is that it's all in a current account and I wonder if that might look a bit odd? I've steadily been accumulating £300-400 a month so now there is about £26k in total.

    The other thing is that they need a local solicitor to verify my address. I don't have one and wondering how I get that done. Presumably I'll have to somehow prove to them that I live where I live so that they can verify me for the mortgage?

    Anti-Money Laundering rules are becoming absurd.

    An eighty-something aunt of Mrs Foxy was giving £20,000 to her grandsons as a house deposit, which she did by selling some ISA, but had to prove how she honestly came by the money twenty years previously. She struggled to prove it as no records left.

    Similarly as Trustee of my Church, it takes more than six months to open a new bank account, so we can better invest assets, some of which goes back to donations and bequests decades ago. Quite obviously this too wouldn't be a very good way of laundering money.

    There are many ways we could cut the hassle of being British, without harming anything. This needless red tape just creates friction to investment, trade and growth.
    What we need is some new red tape to describe the existing red tape. There can be various new shades of red tape depending on the previous red tape. And the future red tape. Possibly red is a triggering colour though. We should form a 'what colour should the tape be' red tape department to look into it. We'd probably need...

    :: Continue until series 58 of Yes, Minister ::
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    stodge said:

    Labour majorites:

    5,000 in Kingswood
    3,000 in Wellingborough.

    Ahead of the Uxbridge result, how many thousand were you saying Labour would win by? Not forgetting Labour stormed to an even more unlikely win in Yorkshire at same time.

    Psephology isn’t just spreadsheets working out what result will be in a constituency based on current national polling, psychology has to play a role. Not just voters going from one to another party in certain places, measure the happiness index in doing so. Because on General Election night it won’t ever be a flat swing everywhere, there will be geographical variations; but neither will average tactical vote among LLG be consistent everywhere, this will have large variations also.

    Geography - you can probably get on a bus in Kingwood and get off in Bristol Central, that will be a green bastion constituency after the General Election. The voters have gone green for reasons high on the happiness index.
    Narrative - Kingswood will be won by Labour on General Election night, probably Uxbridge too. The narrative on GE night will be get Sunak out, but that narrative is not so strong all day today, for simple reason these by elections don’t get Sunak out. So for LLG it’s a do what you want night. Can Labour win Kingwood without a single LLG vote? Otherwise in local elections the votes that help Labour here have been yellow, based on geography and Narrative, they could be yellow, green or red tonight not necessarily labour.

    You will love it if I’m wrong I suspect 😇

    PS if Labour fail to take Kingwood, the reason 99.9% will put it down to is the wobbly week Labour have had and “the mistakes” they have made - but 99.9% will be 100% wrong. I explained weeks ago why Labour could fail in Kingwood, weeks before they had any so called wobbles.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476
    Donald Trump again threatens to sacrifice Nato allies to Russia
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/15/trump-russia-attack-nato-campaign-biden
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    YOUGOV TIMES:

    Lab 44 (-2)
    Con 24 (+3)

    Change vs last Times YouGov (there was another YouGov in between)
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    carnforth said:

    @rcs1000 Less than before 2005, but still grandfathered in:

    https://vinepair.com/wine-blog/loophole-california-champagne-legal/

    Wow. Fascinating. Thank you.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    OT Just seen Howard Jacobson on Newsnight. He's gone completely barking!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    TSE isn't about is he? Anyway I don't know if anyone can advise me. I'm sorting out my new mortgage but I'm a bit concerned because they want to know where the cash I'm paying down is coming from and have asked for a load of bank statements.

    What bothers me is that it's all in a current account and I wonder if that might look a bit odd? I've steadily been accumulating £300-400 a month so now there is about £26k in total.

    The other thing is that they need a local solicitor to verify my address. I don't have one and wondering how I get that done. Presumably I'll have to somehow prove to them that I live where I live so that they can verify me for the mortgage?

    On the current account, I wouldn't worry at all. They're just paper collecting, I would be extremely surprised if they actually analyzed it, let alone acted off it.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,006
    Roger said:

    OT Just seen Howard Jacobson on Newsnight. He's gone completely barking!

    A bit depressing as I like him. We all know novelists can be prone to hyperbolising (I think Jacobson even apologised for his exaggeration at one point) but if all criticism of Israel leads to the Holocaust, where does that leave us?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,182
    Sunder Katwala
    @sundersays

    The Conservatives had never in their history lost a majority anything like as large as Wellingborough (18.5k) to Labour before July 2023. (The all-time record was 15,000 in 1990). It is true they have broken that 3 times in 9 months, making record-breaking defeats routine.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,096
    edited February 15
    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump again threatens to sacrifice Nato allies to Russia
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/15/trump-russia-attack-nato-campaign-biden

    There's only one story around the world tomorrow: Judge Engoron dismantling Trump's New York business empire. Ending his ability to operate as a property magnate in New York - for life. Fining him half a billion dollars (including interest). For running a crooked property empire underpinned for many, many years by fraud.

    You'll hear Trumps wailing all the way from Manhattan.

    Let's see how that shakes up US politics.

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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,183

    Sunder Katwala
    @sundersays

    The Conservatives had never in their history lost a majority anything like as large as Wellingborough (18.5k) to Labour before July 2023. (The all-time record was 15,000 in 1990). It is true they have broken that 3 times in 9 months, making record-breaking defeats routine.

    I always find this stuff about overturning majorities a little off. When the turnout is half what it is at the general, it's not comparable, and it would be better to stick to percentages and swings.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited February 16

    Roger said:

    OT Just seen Howard Jacobson on Newsnight. He's gone completely barking!

    A bit depressing as I like him. We all know novelists can be prone to hyperbolising (I think Jacobson even apologised for his exaggeration at one point) but if all criticism of Israel leads to the Holocaust, where does that leave us?
    I thought for a very brief moment he was being ironic but as Victoria Derbyshire visibly recoiled I realised it was a job for the men in white coats

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    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Liz Truss was right that we need economic growth. Her economic policies designed to stimulate growth were at best controversial but leaving that to one side, Truss's big mistake was not understanding why Gordon Brown made the Bank of England independent. If she had not flagrantly bypassed all institutional safeguards, she would likely not have spooked the markets and would still be Prime Minister.
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    Yes I am sucker in that I still watch - and roar laughing at - The Apprentice.

    Glad to see that tonight's loser was cancelled from the You're Fired. I would have fired him in week 1 for his "yes" reaction when he thought the boys had won (he thought that a 50% refund cut their profit in half. No, it cuts your revenue in half which means you lose, moron).

    But he was edited out of the revue show that followed due to anti-semitic tweets made *after* he departed from the show...

    Although The Apprentice was filmed last year, You're Fired is filmed in the same week that the corresponding episode of The Apprentice is broadcast, so there was no need to edit him out because they could just not invite him in the first place.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,451
    edited February 16
    Dazed and confused Wellingborough Reform Candidate getting a lot of response campaigning in the wrong constituency - Jonathon Calder. He is in Irthlingborough.

    Liberal England... News from the Wellingborough front line: Reform candidate finds lots of support in the wrong constituency
    https://liberalengland.blogspot.com/2024/02/news-from-wellingborough-front-line.html

    https://twitter.com/BackBrexitBen/status/1758101985683726520
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    TSE isn't about is he? Anyway I don't know if anyone can advise me. I'm sorting out my new mortgage but I'm a bit concerned because they want to know where the cash I'm paying down is coming from and have asked for a load of bank statements.

    What bothers me is that it's all in a current account and I wonder if that might look a bit odd? I've steadily been accumulating £300-400 a month so now there is about £26k in total.

    The other thing is that they need a local solicitor to verify my address. I don't have one and wondering how I get that done. Presumably I'll have to somehow prove to them that I live where I live so that they can verify me for the mortgage?

    So long as you've got an audit trail showing where the £300-400 a month was coming from you'll be fine.

    As for verification, you'll need one from List 1 and two from List 2

    List 1

    Personal Identity
    Current signed Passport
    Current EU or UK photocard driving license
    Residence Permit issued by the Home Office together with own country’s passport
    Armed Forces ID card
    EU member state identity card

    List 2

    Recent utility bill or bank statement or mortgage statement with the current address (no more than three months old)
    Current UK driving license
    Council Tax bill for the current year
    Confirmation from the Electoral Register or
    local Council rent card or tenancy agreement
    Pension or State Benefit recent letter
    HMRC PAYE Coding Notice (recent)
    In case that list was copied and pasted from an internal document, a pedant writes that you cannot spell licence (and capitalisation seems random).

    Last time I had to prove source of funds, they were happy I could show the dosh came out of my own bank account and were not at all curious as to how it got in there.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    Nigelb said:

    Donald Trump again threatens to sacrifice Nato allies to Russia
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/15/trump-russia-attack-nato-campaign-biden

    There's only one story around the world tomorrow: Judge Engoron dismantling Trump's New York business empire. Ending his ability to operate as a property magnate in New York - for life. Fining him half a billion dollars (including interest). For running a crooked property empire underpinned for many, many years by fraud.

    You'll hear Trumps wailing all the way from Manhattan.

    Let's see how that shakes up US politics.

    There is the small possibility that this leads to loans getting called, and that Trump ends up in serious financial trouble, and unable to pay his bills.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,451
    edited February 16
    Should we allow props in Parliament?

    I sometimes like the House of Representatives' flashcards.



    Two seconds later:




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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    The fact that Trump could end up being unable to pay his bills - and therefore unable to function, including functioning as the GOP nominee in a POTUS election - makes me think his current odds for the POTUS are way too short. Currently 2.3-2.32. But because personally I am so keen to see him lose, I don’t trust my own judgment. So I’m not laying him at this point. But please let it be true.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    Oh no! Sorry to hear this Andy_JS. I hope you are ok.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,183
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    Stinks. You’ll feel better tomorrow. Don’t let it ruin your trip.
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    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    So sorry to hear about this, hope you can enjoy the rest of your trip.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    Wishing you a completely uneventful holiday from here on out.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    I don’t know whether Trump is in danger of running out of money or not - but his behaviour suggests that it is a real concern for him.

    His visible anger at Haley continuing her GOP nominee bid after finishing a decent 2nd place in NH shows how rattled he is having to fight both numerous legal challenges and an election campaign at the same time.
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    stjohn said:

    The fact that Trump could end up being unable to pay his bills - and therefore unable to function, including functioning as the GOP nominee in a POTUS election - makes me think his current odds for the POTUS are way too short. Currently 2.3-2.32. But because personally I am so keen to see him lose, I don’t trust my own judgment. So I’m not laying him at this point. But please let it be true.

    I'd think there'd be a considerable political risk to calling in Trump's loans, and any fines can presumably be appealed. His election costs are probably funded by PACs. Otoh, IANAE or even American.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    Wishing you a completely uneventful holiday from here on out.
    Thanks, I might just stay in the hotel tomorrow. Coming back on Saturday.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    edited February 16

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    So sorry to hear about this, hope you can enjoy the rest of your trip.
    Thanks Sunil. I'll try to brighten things up by watching the by-elections on Sky News, since i can't get BBC over here.
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    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    It seems a rather extreme way of carrying on PB's perennial debate on the cashless society. GL.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Turnout in Wellingborough by-election 38.1%, higher than Tamworth (35.9%), but lower than Mid Beds (44.0%), Uxbridge & South Ruislip (46.1%), Selby & Ainsty (44.7%) & Tiverton & Honiton (52.2%).

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1758293589400887659?t=2iHNm0gr-0pCBRyIASPKeg&s=19
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    edited February 16
    The problem for me was that it turns out the Rome Metro closes at 11:30pm on most days, which I didn't realise beforehand. They closed the gates just as I was approaching, which is why I was on a night bus instead. I had expected it to close earlier than London, but not quite as early as that. Thought it would be open until at least midnight.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    Wishing you a completely uneventful holiday from here on out.
    Thanks, I might just stay in the hotel tomorrow. Coming back on Saturday.
    If they’ve already knicked all your cash, you may as well go sightseeing!
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,765
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68277176

    "Labour gains Kingswood

    Kingswood results in full
    Here is the breakdown of the Kingswood by-election in full:

    Labour: 11,176
    Conservatives: 8,675
    Reform UK: 2,578
    Liberal Democrats: 861
    Green Party: 1,459
    UKIP: 129"
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Foxy said:

    Turnout in Wellingborough by-election 38.1%, higher than Tamworth (35.9%), but lower than Mid Beds (44.0%), Uxbridge & South Ruislip (46.1%), Selby & Ainsty (44.7%) & Tiverton & Honiton (52.2%).

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1758293589400887659?t=2iHNm0gr-0pCBRyIASPKeg&s=19

    its the Reform vote I think will be interesting (BTW I reckon a 3000 Lab majority)
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,890
    edited February 16
    CatMan said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68277176

    "Labour gains Kingswood

    Kingswood results in full
    Here is the breakdown of the Kingswood by-election in full:

    Labour: 11,176
    Conservatives: 8,675
    Reform UK: 2,578
    Liberal Democrats: 861
    Green Party: 1,459
    UKIP: 129"

    I can see why lurching to the right is so tempting for the Tories.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    edited February 16
    According to Britainelects - Kingswood Labour by a 10% margin, Ref vote was the equivalent of the difference - nervous Tories tonight I reckon. Wonder if Nigel F might be getting that peerage after all (backroom deal beckons again?)
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,765
    edited February 16
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1758308141815456189?s=20

    Kingswood parliamentary by-election, result:

    LAB: 44.9% (+11.5)
    CON: 34.9% (-21.3)
    REF: 10.4% (+10.4)
    GRN: 5.8% (+3.4)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-3.5)
    UKIP: 0.5% (+0.5)


    Votes cast: 24,879

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1758308891954213198?s=20

    Britain Predicts had it Lab 45, Con 32, Ref 12
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    edited February 16
    My prediction from earlier (on the VoteUK forum) was that Labour would win Kingswood by a much bigger margin, 52% to 28%. So I got that wrong by quite a bit.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.

    Wishing you a completely uneventful holiday from here on out.
    Thanks, I might just stay in the hotel tomorrow. Coming back on Saturday.
    If they’ve already knicked all your cash, you may as well go sightseeing!
    If I feel okay tomorrow, I might do a bit of sightseeing.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    What was the swing in Kingswood?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,243
    edited February 16
    16.4% swing? Congrats to Labour!
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    Rochdale police incident: Homes evacuated after 'rifles and grenades' found
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-rochdale-police-incident-evacuated-28641211

    All over.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,087
    Israeli rap group tops charts with song calling for the death of British singer Dua Lipa.

    https://nypost.com/2024/02/15/world-news/israeli-rappers-call-for-dua-lipa-bella-hadid-to-be-killed-in-chart-topping-song/

    The Jewish population of Israel is increasingly moving away from Western liberal culture and returning to its violent Middle Eastern roots.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,087

    It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/15/was-liz-truss-right-all-along/

    - As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
    Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
    Because if there's one thing the British economy needs right now, it is more low skilled immigrants.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    Interesting to note the swing in Kingswood wouldn't be enough for Labour to win Wellingborough. Swing in Kingswood was 16.4%, swing needed in Wellingbrough is 17.9%.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting to note the swing in Kingswood wouldn't be enough for Labour to win Wellingborough. Swing in Kingswood was 16.4%, swing needed in Wellingbrough is 17.9%.

    @Andy_JS , just read about wot happened. You OK?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    edited February 16
    Wellingborough

    Lab 13,844
    Con 7,408
    RefUK 3,919
    LD 1,422
    Ind Turner-Hawes 1,115
    Green 1,020
    Ind Watts 533
    BF 477
    Loony 217
    Ind Bailey 172
    Ind Postmortem 18

    Lab maj 6,436
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    That’s a huge win for Labour in Wellingborough.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Quite a result in Wellingborough, whilst the Lab win was always likely the margin was pretty impressive and I suspect some panic among certain Tories, even a poss leadership challenge could be on the cards (not thats its a good idea). Reform will be sending a chill through Conservative-held seats, even if they peel 5-6% off the Blues (not all Tories admittedly) it magnifies the damage.
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    Quite a result in Wellingborough, whilst the Lab win was always likely the margin was pretty impressive and I suspect some panic among certain Tories, even a poss leadership challenge could be on the cards (not thats its a good idea). Reform will be sending a chill through Conservative-held seats, even if they peel 5-6% off the Blues (not all Tories admittedly) it magnifies the damage.

    Panic maybe but there is no obvious successor, and no unpopular policy they need to ditch, like the poll tax, so Rishi is probably safe.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    Very good result for Lab in Wellingborough. I wonder why the Tory vote in Kingswood was slightly stickier than expected.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,311
    edited February 16
    Andy_JS said:

    Very good result for Lab in Wellingborough. I wonder why the Tory vote in Kingswood was slightly stickier than expected.

    Possibly we need to turn the question around and ask why Wellingborough saw the greater swing. It might be due to the causes of the by-elections, with Chris Skidmore resigning from Kingswood on a matter of policy, whether you agree with him or not, whereas in Wellingborough there was a more repellent vibe, not helped by the choice of candidate.
This discussion has been closed.