Congratulations to the two new MPs. I hope they do a good job for their constituents.
Lots of stuff to consider in this, but here's one: where on Earth are the Lib Dems?
I wonder if they pull out all stops in Rochdale?, stranger things have happened, Big Cyril came in on a byelection I believe (not that he is an example to follow)
OT nice spot in polling about conspiracy theories: Someone did a poll about a conspiracy theory involving Taylor Swift. 42% of the people who said they believed the conspiracy theory said the first time they'd heard it was in the poll.
The fact that Trump could end up being unable to pay his bills - and therefore unable to function, including functioning as the GOP nominee in a POTUS election - makes me think his current odds for the POTUS are way too short. Currently 2.3-2.32. But because personally I am so keen to see him lose, I don’t trust my own judgment. So I’m not laying him at this point. But please let it be true.
I'd think there'd be a considerable political risk to calling in Trump's loans, and any fines can presumably be appealed. His election costs are probably funded by PACs. Otoh, IANAE or even American.
He can appeal any fines, but he has to deposit the whole amount or a bond covering the whole amount with the court before he does so.
A bond would cost him (in fees) an additional 10% of any fine/costs, and by the time he’s paid legal expenses and still lost the case (as there are no realistic grounds for appeal - ignore what he’s claimed has happened, because as usual he’s lying) it would just leave him in a worse mess.
I suspect he will appeal because otherwise he faces an immediate fire sale of his assets but coupled with his ongoing criminal cases in New York and Washington (not counting Georgia and Florida) he may be in financial difficulty going forward. Hence why he’s mad at Haley for not dropping out.
Seems likely he will try a crowdfunder to get his crazier supporters to pay for it.Indeed, it’s been suggested that’s actually his main reason for running again - to raise money.
If the swing in Kingswood was repeated everywhere at the next election, the Tories would win 177 seats. With the Wellingborough swing, it would be just 8 seats. (See the VoteUK forum for details).
TSE - Yeah I've done all the identity verification. This is on top of that. And also needing a solicitor to verify my address as my broker has gone awol.
Sorry you are having such trouble. It sounds almost as bad as going down the polling station to vote, nowadays.
Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.
(The like for that was sympathy.) Hope you're OK, as it can really shake you up.
Ahead of the Uxbridge result, how many thousand were you saying Labour would win by? Not forgetting Labour stormed to an even more unlikely win in Yorkshire at same time.
Psephology isn’t just spreadsheets working out what result will be in a constituency based on current national polling, psychology has to play a role. Not just voters going from one to another party in certain places, measure the happiness index in doing so. Because on General Election night it won’t ever be a flat swing everywhere, there will be geographical variations; but neither will average tactical vote among LLG be consistent everywhere, this will have large variations also.
Geography - you can probably get on a bus in Kingwood and get off in Bristol Central, that will be a green bastion constituency after the General Election. The voters have gone green for reasons high on the happiness index. Narrative - Kingswood will be won by Labour on General Election night, probably Uxbridge too. The narrative on GE night will be get Sunak out, but that narrative is not so strong all day today, for simple reason these by elections don’t get Sunak out. So for LLG it’s a do what you want night. Can Labour win Kingwood without a single LLG vote? Otherwise in local elections the votes that help Labour here have been yellow, based on geography and Narrative, they could be yellow, green or red tonight not necessarily labour.
You will love it if I’m wrong I suspect 😇
PS if Labour fail to take Kingwood, the reason 99.9% will put it down to is the wobbly week Labour have had and “the mistakes” they have made - but 99.9% will be 100% wrong. I explained weeks ago why Labour could fail in Kingwood, weeks before they had any so called wobbles.
Have you and Leon ever been seen in the same room?
There's only one story around the world tomorrow: Judge Engoron dismantling Trump's New York business empire. Ending his ability to operate as a property magnate in New York - for life. Fining him half a billion dollars (including interest). For running a crooked property empire underpinned for many, many years by fraud.
You'll hear Trumps wailing all the way from Manhattan.
Let's see how that shakes up US politics.
There is the small possibility that this leads to loans getting called, and that Trump ends up in serious financial trouble, and unable to pay his bills.
The number I have heard is that he has around $300m cash on hand. So he's likely having to sell assets anyway. Or looking for a mug billionaire to bail him out. I guess there are such people in the US.
Part of Trump's schtick has been his "I am such a great businessman" message. Let's see how that gets knocked when his wealth is taken away because of the fraud his empire undertook. .
There's only one story around the world tomorrow: Judge Engoron dismantling Trump's New York business empire. Ending his ability to operate as a property magnate in New York - for life. Fining him half a billion dollars (including interest). For running a crooked property empire underpinned for many, many years by fraud.
You'll hear Trumps wailing all the way from Manhattan.
Let's see how that shakes up US politics.
There is the small possibility that this leads to loans getting called, and that Trump ends up in serious financial trouble, and unable to pay his bills.
The number I have heard is that he has around $300m cash on hand. So he's likely having to sell assets anyway. Or looking for a mug billionaire to bail him out. I guess there are such people in the US.
Part of Trump's schtick has been his "I am such a great businessman" message. Let's see how that gets knocked when his wealth is taken away because of the fraud his empire undertook. .
Also we have the Stormy Daniels case starting in March. That should be finished by the start of July. If he is found guilty - not by any means a certainty - the charge carries a maximum sentence of four years. Which would, if imposed, effectively end his political career.
What the Republicans would do then is another question.
Edit - there would be something bizarrely ironic and very American about a man who rigged elections, swindled his customers and banks, tried to overthrow the government, stacked the courts and evaded his taxes being imprisoned for paying a porn star to not reveal he has a small penis that looks like a button mushroom.
During the Cold War, Russophile westerners were invited to Moscow and given the five-star treatment. Naturally, this showed off Russia at its very best. But they were not necessarily free to go outside their carefully-curated itinerary. They came back shouting the praises of the brilliant Communist system - not having seen the reality.
The same thing happens now with North Korea, with tourists seeing the same 'ordinary' people in the background at multiple sites.
Whilst I doubt Moscow has massive shortages of staples, Carlson's fallen foul of exactly the same thing.
If the swing in Kingswood was repeated everywhere at the next election, the Tories would win 177 seats. With the Wellingborough swing, it would be just 8 seats. (See the VoteUK forum for details).
Which eight numpties would we still be stuck with?
If the swing in Kingswood was repeated everywhere at the next election, the Tories would win 177 seats. With the Wellingborough swing, it would be just 8 seats. (See the VoteUK forum for details).
Which eight numpties would we still be stuck with?
Remember the ‘Biden bribe’ allegation? DOJ now says it was made up. At the beginning of May, Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) sent a letter to the Justice Department making a stunning accusation: Evidence existed of “an alleged criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions.” The letter called on Attorney General Merrick Garland to make the “verifiable, valuable” evidence public.
...Nor did Comer and Grassley ever generate any evidence to substantiate the bribe allegation. Instead, Comer spent his time trying to get the interview memorandum including the allegation released to the public — over the FBI’s objections, rooted in part on the fact that the claim hadn’t been verified. It is hard to overstate how much energy Republicans and their allies in the right-wing media invested in the idea that this was credible. When he announced the launch of an impeachment probe of Biden in September, then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) invoked the Smirnov allegation.
..Fox News has mentioned Biden in the context of “bribe” or “bribery” more than 2,600 times over the past 12 months. A Media Matters review of host Sean Hannity’s efforts to bolster the Republican impeachment effort tallied at least 85 segments focused on the allegation and the FBI form that documented it — despite the complete dearth of evidence supporting the idea..
What happened to the PBer who was pushing this story for years ?
I see Rees-Mogg has already popped up saying that the Conservatives need to swing right to absorb the Reform vote. He won’t be the only one to counsel that. And that would be very good news for Labour.
Remember the ‘Biden bribe’ allegation? DOJ now says it was made up. At the beginning of May, Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) sent a letter to the Justice Department making a stunning accusation: Evidence existed of “an alleged criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions.” The letter called on Attorney General Merrick Garland to make the “verifiable, valuable” evidence public.
...Nor did Comer and Grassley ever generate any evidence to substantiate the bribe allegation. Instead, Comer spent his time trying to get the interview memorandum including the allegation released to the public — over the FBI’s objections, rooted in part on the fact that the claim hadn’t been verified. It is hard to overstate how much energy Republicans and their allies in the right-wing media invested in the idea that this was credible. When he announced the launch of an impeachment probe of Biden in September, then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) invoked the Smirnov allegation.
..Fox News has mentioned Biden in the context of “bribe” or “bribery” more than 2,600 times over the past 12 months. A Media Matters review of host Sean Hannity’s efforts to bolster the Republican impeachment effort tallied at least 85 segments focused on the allegation and the FBI form that documented it — despite the complete dearth of evidence supporting the idea..
What happened to the PBer who was pushing this story for years ?
I think we drove him off by constantly bringing facts in that wrecked his theories.
He first became abusive, then blamed everyone else for his being abusive, then said we all didn't understand American politics or the law, then said it wasn't worth engaging with us and flounced.
Tony Lloyd, Rochdale’s former MP, died on 17 January. Ali, Labour leader on Lancashire council, was selected only 10 days later, the byelection writ was moved, and now Ali has been disowned as Labour’s candidate. All of this has happened before Lloyd’s funeral, which only takes place on Friday. The haste was bad enough. The decision-making was plain stupid.
There is no disputing that this has been a damaging episode for Labour. However, the damage and the lessons are real but not terminal. The underlying arguments of the past 12 months – that it is time for a change, and that the Conservative party should not be re-elected after Boris Johnson’s rule-breaking and the Liz Truss budget – have not been blown away by Gaza or by the retreat on green spending.
Labour has become too complacent about its long lead. It has behaved as though nothing is more important than to nurse that lead through to polling day, and that anything else is a risk.
The world still turns. Starmer is not absolved from the need to offer a message of hope, not least on the Middle East, where Labour is being outflanked by David Cameron. And Starmer has certainly not won permission to look the other way for 48 hours, especially on an issue as serious as antisemitism, when his byelection candidate says something intolerable. The chief casualty of this week is not Labour’s prospect of power. It is Labour’s apparent belief that the Starmer party can ride unharmed above the rules of politics. That belief may have gone now. If so, good riddance.
I see Rees-Mogg has already popped up saying that the Conservatives need to swing right to absorb the Reform vote. He won’t be the only one to counsel that. And that would be very good news for Labour.
That's a mad idea. If they swing right, Mogg himself is completely fuc...hang on a second, I'm wrong, it's a great idea.
During the Cold War, Russophile westerners were invited to Moscow and given the five-star treatment. Naturally, this showed off Russia at its very best. But they were not necessarily free to go outside their carefully-curated itinerary. They came back shouting the praises of the brilliant Communist system - not having seen the reality.
The same thing happens now with North Korea, with tourists seeing the same 'ordinary' people in the background at multiple sites.
Whilst I doubt Moscow has massive shortages of staples, Carlson's fallen foul of exactly the same thing.
Moscow is genuinely a pretty good place to live - compared with the rest of Russia.
I see Rees-Mogg has already popped up saying that the Conservatives need to swing right to absorb the Reform vote. He won’t be the only one to counsel that. And that would be very good news for Labour.
Better news for the LibDems, as Labour already has the voters it needs, and those still toying with voting Tory ‘er gwaetha pawb a phopeth’ but who might be repelled by yet more right-wing nuttery are just the ones the LibDems need to turn 25 seats into 55.
I see Rees-Mogg has already popped up saying that the Conservatives need to swing right to absorb the Reform vote. He won’t be the only one to counsel that. And that would be very good news for Labour.
That's a mad idea. If they swing right, Mogg himself is completely fuc...hang on a second, I'm wrong, it's a great idea.
Was that in his capacity as an MP, or a GB news 'reporter' ?
Very good result for Lab in Wellingborough. I wonder why the Tory vote in Kingswood was slightly stickier than expected.
Possibly we need to turn the question around and ask why Wellingborough saw the greater swing. It might be due to the causes of the by-elections, with Chris Skidmore resigning from Kingswood on a matter of policy, whether you agree with him or not, whereas in Wellingborough there was a more repellent vibe, not helped by the choice of candidate.
That's what I'm thinking. Definitely a factor was that the voters in Wellingborough decided that the choice of Conservative candidate was taking the piss, and so an example needed to be made. Similar to the Winchester re-run in 1997.
Crushing defeats for the Tories, and notable that Reform scored over 10% in both contests. Makes their opinion poll scores look a lot more credible.
In general I would say that Lib Dem voters, particularly their core voters, are more likely to be high-information voters with a higher than average willingness to vote tactically. It would have been a surprise to see them save a deposit in either of the by-elections.
I've often said that the same is true for Green voters, so it is a surprise to see the Greens increase their vote in Kingswood and save their deposit.
For sure. Real votes confirming the big poll lead. They look unassailable for the GE.
Why on earth did the Cons choose Bone's girlfriend as their candidate?
The Tories choose Bone's girlfriend as their candidate; Labour select an anti-semitic conspiracy theorist.
Does this say more about how shit a job being an MP is, rather than how rubbish the political parties are?
It must be rubbish to be a by election candidate. Totally at the whim of events outside your control. The press rummaging through your bins and digital past looking for anything to destroy you. Why would anyone sensible expose themselves to that?
In general I would say that Lib Dem voters, particularly their core voters, are more likely to be high-information voters with a higher than average willingness to vote tactically. It would have been a surprise to see them save a deposit in either of the by-elections.
I've often said that the same is true for Green voters, so it is a surprise to see the Greens increase their vote in Kingswood and save their deposit.
The reason the Tory MP resigned will have helped them
For sure. Real votes confirming the big poll lead. They look unassailable for the GE.
Why on earth did the Cons choose Bone's girlfriend as their candidate?
Utter arrogance and why they are out of touch
Same with London mayoral candidate
And further weirdness the new Deputy Chairman James Daly. Very inarticulate and garbled (was on QT) not a media performer at all. Two disastrous results and Mogg and Daly both completely out of touch with reality.
If the swing in Kingswood was repeated everywhere at the next election, the Tories would win 177 seats. With the Wellingborough swing, it would be just 8 seats. (See the VoteUK forum for details).
Which eight numpties would we still be stuck with?
The fact that Trump could end up being unable to pay his bills - and therefore unable to function, including functioning as the GOP nominee in a POTUS election - makes me think his current odds for the POTUS are way too short. Currently 2.3-2.32. But because personally I am so keen to see him lose, I don’t trust my own judgment. So I’m not laying him at this point. But please let it be true.
I'd think there'd be a considerable political risk to calling in Trump's loans, and any fines can presumably be appealed. His election costs are probably funded by PACs. Otoh, IANAE or even American.
He can appeal any fines, but he has to deposit the whole amount or a bond covering the whole amount with the court before he does so.
A bond would cost him (in fees) an additional 10% of any fine/costs, and by the time he’s paid legal expenses and still lost the case (as there are no realistic grounds for appeal - ignore what he’s claimed has happened, because as usual he’s lying) it would just leave him in a worse mess.
I suspect he will appeal because otherwise he faces an immediate fire sale of his assets but coupled with his ongoing criminal cases in New York and Washington (not counting Georgia and Florida) he may be in financial difficulty going forward. Hence why he’s mad at Haley for not dropping out.
Seems likely he will try a crowdfunder to get his crazier supporters to pay for it.Indeed, it’s been suggested that’s actually his main reason for running again - to raise money.
Trump's PACs spent north of $50m on his legal fees in 2023 alone from Political Action Committees, and the financial position of many state Republican Parties is dire. He's draining his own swamp.
Haley: Another reason Donald Trump won’t debate me… His PAC spent 50 MILLION in campaign dollars on his legal fees.
There's only one story around the world tomorrow: Judge Engoron dismantling Trump's New York business empire. Ending his ability to operate as a property magnate in New York - for life. Fining him half a billion dollars (including interest). For running a crooked property empire underpinned for many, many years by fraud.
You'll hear Trumps wailing all the way from Manhattan.
Let's see how that shakes up US politics.
There is the small possibility that this leads to loans getting called, and that Trump ends up in serious financial trouble, and unable to pay his bills.
The number I have heard is that he has around $300m cash on hand. So he's likely having to sell assets anyway. Or looking for a mug billionaire to bail him out. I guess there are such people in the US.
Part of Trump's schtick has been his "I am such a great businessman" message. Let's see how that gets knocked when his wealth is taken away because of the fraud his empire undertook. .
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68175846 Article on how Trump could pay his fines. Says he has 3 options: Secure a bond Sell assets Fundraising - his Save America PAC has already paid 10s of millions of his legal fees.
It also says Trump told the court he had 400 million cash on hand.
Just been robbed by two people after getting off a night bus in Rome. Luckily I wasn't injured. They just got my coat with about 100 Euros and a debit card, (which I've cancelled). A bit shaken up. First time I've experienced anything like this.
(The like for that was sympathy.) Hope you're OK, as it can really shake you up.
+1
I was once mugged in the walkway down the side of the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead by I think a difficult-to-understand druggie with a huge stick back in 2000. I still have a vivid memory; it was soon after my diabetes diagnosis.
It was "Give Me The Notes" followed by a small nudge with (possibly - it felt that heavy) a baseball bat on the leg. The small nudge alone gave quite extensive bruising.
It turns out that the UK’s economic challenges could not be cured by simply “putting the grown-ups back in charge”. It has become clear that, to get the economy growing, we needed radical changes, as Liz Truss had tried and failed to introduce, not the “more of the same” that Sunak represented.
- As very few shrewd people said at the time of the Sunak coronation.
Want radical? Rejoin the single market.
Because if there's one thing the British economy needs right now, it is more low skilled immigrants.
1) Europeans are on average better educated than brits, 2) leaving Dublin 2 and fronted is what has put us in this situation. I am just not seeing your point here.
Comments
Lots of stuff to consider in this, but here's one: where on Earth are the Lib Dems?
https://bsky.app/profile/aedwardslevy.bsky.social/post/3klfoupvc7v2p
(c) BJO, 2017-2024
Overall it does looke like the national polling is about right for real elections.
Sunak is not just toast, he is charcoal ash.
A bond would cost him (in fees) an additional 10% of any fine/costs, and by the time he’s paid legal expenses and still lost the case (as there are no realistic grounds for appeal - ignore what he’s claimed has happened, because as usual he’s lying) it would just leave him in a worse mess.
I suspect he will appeal because otherwise he faces an immediate fire sale of his assets but coupled with his ongoing criminal cases in New York and Washington (not counting Georgia and Florida) he may be in financial difficulty going forward. Hence why he’s mad at Haley for not dropping out.
Seems likely he will try a crowdfunder to get his crazier supporters to pay for it.Indeed, it’s been suggested that’s actually his main reason for running again - to raise money.
Hope you're OK, as it can really shake you up.
Tucker says after visiting a Russian grocery store he is “radicalized against our leaders” because Russians have it so much better than Americans.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1758115980759253306
Why on earth did the Cons choose Bone's girlfriend as their candidate?
Just catching the news and good results for labour indicating the current polls are fairly accurate
Seems to confirm the GE will be in Oct/ Nov as just how much worse could it be even then
Next interesting by election will be the result in Rochdale in 2 weeks and what, if any, implications it will have for labour
Same with London mayoral candidate
Part of Trump's schtick has been his "I am such a great businessman" message. Let's see how that gets knocked when his wealth is taken away because of the fraud his empire undertook.
.
What the Republicans would do then is another question.
Edit - there would be something bizarrely ironic and very American about a man who rigged elections, swindled his customers and banks, tried to overthrow the government, stacked the courts and evaded his taxes being imprisoned for paying a porn star to not reveal he has a small penis that looks like a button mushroom.
The same thing happens now with North Korea, with tourists seeing the same 'ordinary' people in the background at multiple sites.
Whilst I doubt Moscow has massive shortages of staples, Carlson's fallen foul of exactly the same thing.
(Paywall free via Twitter link.)
https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1758262935103635577
Remember the ‘Biden bribe’ allegation? DOJ now says it was made up.
At the beginning of May, Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) sent a letter to the Justice Department making a stunning accusation: Evidence existed of “an alleged criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions.” The letter called on Attorney General Merrick Garland to make the “verifiable, valuable” evidence public.
...Nor did Comer and Grassley ever generate any evidence to substantiate the bribe allegation. Instead, Comer spent his time trying to get the interview memorandum including the allegation released to the public — over the FBI’s objections, rooted in part on the fact that the claim hadn’t been verified.
It is hard to overstate how much energy Republicans and their allies in the right-wing media invested in the idea that this was credible. When he announced the launch of an impeachment probe of Biden in September, then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) invoked the Smirnov allegation.
..Fox News has mentioned Biden in the context of “bribe” or “bribery” more than 2,600 times over the past 12 months. A Media Matters review of host Sean Hannity’s efforts to bolster the Republican impeachment effort tallied at least 85 segments focused on the allegation and the FBI form that documented it — despite the complete dearth of evidence supporting the idea..
What happened to the PBer who was pushing this story for years ?
He first became abusive, then blamed everyone else for his being abusive, then said we all didn't understand American politics or the law, then said it wasn't worth engaging with us and flounced.
Tony Lloyd, Rochdale’s former MP, died on 17 January. Ali, Labour leader on Lancashire council, was selected only 10 days later, the byelection writ was moved, and now Ali has been disowned as Labour’s candidate. All of this has happened before Lloyd’s funeral, which only takes place on Friday. The haste was bad enough. The decision-making was plain stupid.
There is no disputing that this has been a damaging episode for Labour. However, the damage and the lessons are real but not terminal. The underlying arguments of the past 12 months – that it is time for a change, and that the Conservative party should not be re-elected after Boris Johnson’s rule-breaking and the Liz Truss budget – have not been blown away by Gaza or by the retreat on green spending.
Labour has become too complacent about its long lead. It has behaved as though nothing is more important than to nurse that lead through to polling day, and that anything else is a risk.
The world still turns. Starmer is not absolved from the need to offer a message of hope, not least on the Middle East, where Labour is being outflanked by David Cameron. And Starmer has certainly not won permission to look the other way for 48 hours, especially on an issue as serious as antisemitism, when his byelection candidate says something intolerable. The chief casualty of this week is not Labour’s prospect of power. It is Labour’s apparent belief that the Starmer party can ride unharmed above the rules of politics. That belief may have gone now. If so, good riddance.
Assuming you live on the ground floor.
Crushing defeats for the Tories, and notable that Reform scored over 10% in both contests. Makes their opinion poll scores look a lot more credible.
Does this say more about how shit a job being an MP is, rather than how rubbish the political parties are?
I've often said that the same is true for Green voters, so it is a surprise to see the Greens increase their vote in Kingswood and save their deposit.
I wonder if there was a directive from CCHQ not to attend?
New word of the week?
NEW THREAD
Hope you're OK and please don't let it get to you too much.
Haley:
Another reason Donald Trump won’t debate me… His PAC spent 50 MILLION in campaign dollars on his legal fees.
He can’t beat Joe Biden if he’s spending all his time and money on court cases and chaos.
https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1752459334431195618
Detail as of Feb 1: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/01/trump-pac-money-spent-legal-fees
Article on how Trump could pay his fines. Says he has 3 options:
Secure a bond
Sell assets
Fundraising - his Save America PAC has already paid 10s of millions of his legal fees.
It also says Trump told the court he had 400 million cash on hand.
I was once mugged in the walkway down the side of the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead by I think a difficult-to-understand druggie with a huge stick back in 2000. I still have a vivid memory; it was soon after my diabetes diagnosis.
It was "Give Me The Notes" followed by a small nudge with (possibly - it felt that heavy) a baseball bat on the leg. The small nudge alone gave quite extensive bruising.
Hopefully he will make a full recovery.
https://x.com/skynews/status/1758562342105657402?s=61