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The SNP’s lead in Scotland down to just 7% – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 15 in General
imageThe SNP’s lead in Scotland down to just 7% – politicalbetting.com

The above maps show what happened in Scotland at the last general election. As can be seen the SNP was totally dominant with LAB reduced to just single seat.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,098
    edited February 9
    SNP's lead? Given all the posts we see from Scotch experts on here on SNP troubles, I assumed they were at (England) Tory levels of support!

    ETA: And Starner is some senior SNP bod who reacted to the falling poll lead news with 'God!' ? :wink:

    ETA2: Oh, and first like, um, the SNP?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,130
    edited February 9
    Not first.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918
    Props to @JosiasJessop for this clip of Reagan at the end of the last thread. I think it is worth reposting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UowNDaxRqU


    Perhaps everyone has already seen it? I had not until now. I think that is the single greatest off-the-cuff quip I have ever seen by a politician, especially in the context - Reagan himself being the victim of a REAL shooting years before

    This also gives the lie to the idea he was seriously demented during the presidency. This is Reagan in 1987, deep into his second term. The contrast with Biden or Trump is painful
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244
    Selebian said:

    SNP's lead? Given all the posts we see from Scotch experts on here on SNP troubles, I assumed they were at (England) Tory levels of support!

    ETA: And Starner is some senior SNP bod who reacted to the falling poll lead news with 'God!' ? :wink:

    ETA2: Oh, and first like, um, the SNP?

    Agree, this is a good poll for the SNP not Labour. Their leadership chaos not been in the news so much recently possibly having an impact along with them benefitting from Labours position on the Israel-Palestinian war. Would expect it to be closer by the GE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,677
    Surprised they're still in the lead tbh.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,654

    Selebian said:

    SNP's lead? Given all the posts we see from Scotch experts on here on SNP troubles, I assumed they were at (England) Tory levels of support!

    ETA: And Starner is some senior SNP bod who reacted to the falling poll lead news with 'God!' ? :wink:

    ETA2: Oh, and first like, um, the SNP?

    Agree, this is a good poll for the SNP not Labour. Their leadership chaos not been in the news so much recently possibly having an impact along with them benefitting from Labours position on the Israel-Palestinian war. Would expect it to be closer by the GE.
    On the other hand, there's more to worry about for Slab in terms of London HQ and their overlord SKS. Labour in Scotland have been pretending to be a leftie party - the Rutherglen by election was a prize example of adopting SNP policies for expedience. The more attention SKS gets and the more he trims his sails to the much larger market in England the more the discrepancy will become clear. Interesting.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,130
    Leon said:

    Props to @JosiasJessop for this clip of Reagan at the end of the last thread. I think it is worth reposting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UowNDaxRqU


    Perhaps everyone has already seen it? I had not until now. I think that is the single greatest off-the-cuff quip I have ever seen by a politician, especially in the context - Reagan himself being the victim of a REAL shooting years before

    This also gives the lie to the idea he was seriously demented during the presidency. This is Reagan in 1987, deep into his second term. The contrast with Biden or Trump is painful

    I quite liked George Osborne's "oh look, it's his personal signed copy!" when McDonnell lobbed a copy of Mao's little red book at him:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwVJTHtqs9Y
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,196
    edited February 9

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,381
    Pulpstar said:

    Surprised they're still in the lead tbh.

    There was another poll out yesterday as well when they weren't. Labour were in the lead by 1. I think looked at broadly they are pretty close at the moment.

    The other thing is that Yousaf's personal ratings are crashing. The very protracted resignation of Michael Mathieson and the ill advised support given to him by Yousaf (describing the thieving so and so as "a man of integrity") is not going to help.

    FWIW I am pretty confident that Labour will beat the SNP in the Westminster election in terms of share of the vote. Whether that will result in them getting more seats than the SNP is harder to judge. It may be that the SNP vote remains more efficient, especially if the Tories take a backward step.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Props to @JosiasJessop for this clip of Reagan at the end of the last thread. I think it is worth reposting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UowNDaxRqU


    Perhaps everyone has already seen it? I had not until now. I think that is the single greatest off-the-cuff quip I have ever seen by a politician, especially in the context - Reagan himself being the victim of a REAL shooting years before

    This also gives the lie to the idea he was seriously demented during the presidency. This is Reagan in 1987, deep into his second term. The contrast with Biden or Trump is painful

    I quite liked George Osborne's "oh look, it's his personal signed copy!" when McDonnell lobbed a copy of Mao's little red book at him:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwVJTHtqs9Y
    That's pretty good. Osborne could be genuinely funny, off the cuff - rmemeber the "Sarkozy box"?

    Trouble is, like Cameron (who isn't as funny) Osborne has - or had - an air of the Flashman. The posh bully laughing at the prole - you can sense it in that clip

    Reagan never did that. Generous and dignified
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,729
    Ipsos consistently giving the highest SNP leads of any pollster in Scotland only polls and as Mike said that lead has edged down 5 points in successive polls over the last few months.

    If you take an average of the latest Scotland only polls done by 6 different pollsters since Rutherglen, including this one, Labour lead by around 0.2 points, so effectively neck and neck.

    All the usual caveats apply.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-

    Or

    https://youtu.be/oO-oHWb-g7M?si=uI5DqFg_frUccL0u
    Even from that clip it's apparent that Trump 2024 is a lot closer to Trump 2016 than Biden 2024 is to Biden 2016. Trump still has the same voice and cadence and is physically much less frail that Biden.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,130

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
    Do the Dems really want to be arguing "vote for our senile politician rather than their senile politician"?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918

    Previous thread I know. But I suspect if Biden doesn't run it will be Jill Biden who persuades him to withdraw.

    Wives are omnipotent. Mrs Al has informed me in no uncertain terms that I'm too old to succeed Starmer, so I have gracefully withdrawn, and will spend my remaining days perusing PB instead.

    Perhaps. But there is this:

    "The West Wing staff of the White House ALL know (and say privately) the only reason Joe Biden is running in 2024 with his clearly diminished mental capacity, is Jill Biden likes being 1st lady and doesn’t want to give it up!"

    https://x.com/RobSchneider/status/1755844465967931612?s=20

    It's a rightwing account so it could be deliberate nonsense. Caveat emptor
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244

    Previous thread I know. But I suspect if Biden doesn't run it will be Jill Biden who persuades him to withdraw.

    Wives are omnipotent. Mrs Al has informed me in no uncertain terms that I'm too old to succeed Starmer, so I have gracefully withdrawn, and will spend my remaining days perusing PB instead.

    But we were promised the AI was taking over?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,381
    Pro_Rata said:

    Ipsos consistently giving the highest SNP leads of any pollster in Scotland only polls and as Mike said that lead has edged down 5 points in successive polls over the last few months.

    If you take an average of the latest Scotland only polls done by 6 different pollsters since Rutherglen, including this one, Labour lead by around 0.2 points, so effectively neck and neck.

    All the usual caveats apply.

    What I would suspect though, is that Labour will outperform in the Westminster Election because they are looking to form a government to get rid of the Tories and the SNP are not. Taking on the SNP at Holyrood will be a lot more of a challenge.

    Either way, Yousaf's cunning plan of using the election results for Westminster as some form of second referendum on independence looks deader than a dead thing.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,026
    Leon said:

    Props to @JosiasJessop for this clip of Reagan at the end of the last thread. I think it is worth reposting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UowNDaxRqU


    Perhaps everyone has already seen it? I had not until now. I think that is the single greatest off-the-cuff quip I have ever seen by a politician, especially in the context - Reagan himself being the victim of a REAL shooting years before

    This also gives the lie to the idea he was seriously demented during the presidency. This is Reagan in 1987, deep into his second term. The contrast with Biden or Trump is painful

    Enoch's "Judas was paid!" response to a shout of Judas from the crowd is up there

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,473
    The SNP would take that, wouldn't they?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,572
    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Props to @JosiasJessop for this clip of Reagan at the end of the last thread. I think it is worth reposting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UowNDaxRqU


    Perhaps everyone has already seen it? I had not until now. I think that is the single greatest off-the-cuff quip I have ever seen by a politician, especially in the context - Reagan himself being the victim of a REAL shooting years before

    This also gives the lie to the idea he was seriously demented during the presidency. This is Reagan in 1987, deep into his second term. The contrast with Biden or Trump is painful

    Enoch's "Judas was paid!" response to a shout of Judas from the crowd is up there

    “I am making a sacrifice!”
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,552
    Leon said:

    Previous thread I know. But I suspect if Biden doesn't run it will be Jill Biden who persuades him to withdraw.

    Wives are omnipotent. Mrs Al has informed me in no uncertain terms that I'm too old to succeed Starmer, so I have gracefully withdrawn, and will spend my remaining days perusing PB instead.

    Perhaps. But there is this:

    "The West Wing staff of the White House ALL know (and say privately) the only reason Joe Biden is running in 2024 with his clearly diminished mental capacity, is Jill Biden likes being 1st lady and doesn’t want to give it up!"

    https://x.com/RobSchneider/status/1755844465967931612?s=20

    It's a rightwing account so it could be deliberate nonsense. Caveat emptor
    Yeah - that doesn't feel like the vibe to me. I don't think she dislikes it (like Michelle seemed to), but I don't get the sense this is her digging her heels into the West Wing and not wanting to move out.

    I think, at the end of the day, Biden thinks he's the only one who can beat Trump and the DNC didn't want a big ideological battle primary if it could prevent it. And, if I'm totally honest, the DNC made more money when Trump was in office. They may be betting that he'll be ineffective at passing anything, that they'll win back the Senate and the House in midterms, and that Trump is the best recruitment and fundraising tool they have. Considering that the entire border negotiations boiled down to the Dems saying "we gave the GOP everything they wanted and they still refused to pass it", I don't think the Dems care if Trump wins and does a lot of awful stuff as long as it isn't aimed at them (which is of course where their foresight fails them, because of course Trump will aim it at them).
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,653
    FPT:

    Personally, I think it's a bit of a Morton's Fork if there are two unpalatable choices.

    - If you don't vote, you've passively acquiesced to whoever wins and refused any chance of stopping them
    - If you do vote, you've actively endorsed someone you dislike and disapprove of, and your vote is taken as a mandate for them.

    The only solution would seem to be to change things to increase the width of options to hopefully give more chance of providing at least one that's not too unpleasant. That, though, is far easier said than done.

    People often say this, but since the resurgence of the Liberals in 1970, and then the rise of both the Greens in the late 1980s and UKIP/Reform in the late 1990s, the choice on offer at any General Election is often 5 candidates or more.

    If Bootle can find five candidates in 2019, five in 2017, SIX in 2015 and 2010, then it can hardly be said you're short of choice.

    What people really mean is that you feel you only have a choice of two because of the power of Labour and the Conservatives.

    "The Lib Dems/Greens/Reform can't win here! A vote for them lets the evil baby eating Labour/Tory candidate in, and you can't risk that."

    Imagine if people voted for their favourite party rather than the lesser of two evils...........
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,026
    Carlson - Putin
    sycophant meets psychopath
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,196
    tlg86 said:

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
    Do the Dems really want to be arguing "vote for our senile politician rather than their senile politician"?
    I am not disputing that Biden appears fragile and the look is sub-optimal, but to then suggest that Trump is head and shoulders more cogent is a downright lie.

    It would be much better if neither stood for re- election. Nonetheless only one has attempted a couple d'etat.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,026

    tlg86 said:

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
    Do the Dems really want to be arguing "vote for our senile politician rather than their senile politician"?
    I am not disputing that Biden appears fragile and the look is sub-optimal, but to then suggest that Trump is head and shoulders more cogent is a downright lie.

    It would be much better if neither stood for re- election. Nonetheless only one has attempted a couple d'etat.
    bit tricky that, for just one

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,552

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Of those I think only the first is news / unexpected. The idea that Haley was actually going to give him a run for his money was a joke, and the idea that SCOTUS was going to allow him to not be on the ballot was also highly unlikely.

    But the released details on Biden will certainly sting. And we've still got 9 months to go until polling day - I cannot seem Biden improving in that time (whereas Trump does sometimes put on a good performance, even if he is still clearly a clown).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244
    edited February 9

    tlg86 said:

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
    Do the Dems really want to be arguing "vote for our senile politician rather than their senile politician"?
    I am not disputing that Biden appears fragile and the look is sub-optimal, but to then suggest that Trump is head and shoulders more cogent is a downright lie.

    It would be much better if neither stood for re- election. Nonetheless only one has attempted a couple d'etat.
    An attempted couple d'etat sounds more like trying to get another country to join your own......
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918
    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Previous thread I know. But I suspect if Biden doesn't run it will be Jill Biden who persuades him to withdraw.

    Wives are omnipotent. Mrs Al has informed me in no uncertain terms that I'm too old to succeed Starmer, so I have gracefully withdrawn, and will spend my remaining days perusing PB instead.

    Perhaps. But there is this:

    "The West Wing staff of the White House ALL know (and say privately) the only reason Joe Biden is running in 2024 with his clearly diminished mental capacity, is Jill Biden likes being 1st lady and doesn’t want to give it up!"

    https://x.com/RobSchneider/status/1755844465967931612?s=20

    It's a rightwing account so it could be deliberate nonsense. Caveat emptor
    Yeah - that doesn't feel like the vibe to me. I don't think she dislikes it (like Michelle seemed to), but I don't get the sense this is her digging her heels into the West Wing and not wanting to move out.

    I think, at the end of the day, Biden thinks he's the only one who can beat Trump and the DNC didn't want a big ideological battle primary if it could prevent it. And, if I'm totally honest, the DNC made more money when Trump was in office. They may be betting that he'll be ineffective at passing anything, that they'll win back the Senate and the House in midterms, and that Trump is the best recruitment and fundraising tool they have. Considering that the entire border negotiations boiled down to the Dems saying "we gave the GOP everything they wanted and they still refused to pass it", I don't think the Dems care if Trump wins and does a lot of awful stuff as long as it isn't aimed at them (which is of course where their foresight fails them, because of course Trump will aim it at them).
    Yes, I am not convinced either

    Also, it really can't be much fun, as a wife, watching your husband get regularly humiliated (as in that awful press conference) and then lose his temper and get humilated some more

    Plus, if she loves him (I presume she does) I imagine she wants him to stick around. He looks so frail now, there must be a risk the stress will kill him, and being POTUS is not exactly unstressful
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,196
    ...

    tlg86 said:

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
    Do the Dems really want to be arguing "vote for our senile politician rather than their senile politician"?
    I am not disputing that Biden appears fragile and the look is sub-optimal, but to then suggest that Trump is head and shoulders more cogent is a downright lie.

    It would be much better if neither stood for re- election. Nonetheless only one has attempted a couple d'etat.
    An attempted couple d'etat sounds more like trying to get another country to join your own......
    I do apologise. Autocorrect.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,381
    kinabalu said:

    The SNP would take that, wouldn't they?

    They'd bite your hands off. Right now the SNP are absolutely insolvent. Generating funds is proving difficult when £600k of supposedly ring fenced funds can just disappear from the accounts without anyone raising an eyebrow or a question. The dishonesty of Sturgeon in all her dealings has become ever more apparent and she is a much diminished figure that is likely to cause Yousaf more problems.

    Fighting a general election with no funds available is going to be a major challenge and a big change from 2019. Labour see the chance of 20-25 easy seats which may well give them an overall majority. Funding is unlikely to be an issue for them.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,552

    tlg86 said:

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
    Do the Dems really want to be arguing "vote for our senile politician rather than their senile politician"?
    I am not disputing that Biden appears fragile and the look is sub-optimal, but to then suggest that Trump is head and shoulders more cogent is a downright lie.

    It would be much better if neither stood for re- election. Nonetheless only one has attempted a couple d'etat.
    It's not that Trump is more cogent, as such, it is more the fact that he is more energetic and the insanity that he spews has a narrative. It's a narrative that is borne out of a messianic view of himself, out of vanity and bitterness, out of grievance and conspiracy - but it is a narrative. Biden has just lost a lot of his skill at retail politics and public speaking - whether that's senility or just fatigue who can say. But, again, it is not backing Trump to look at the polling environment and notice that Trump is typically tying or beating Biden, and voters are saying their biggest concern about Biden is his age, and point out that the DNC could deal with that by having a quiet word with Jill and Joe, thanking them for all their hard work, and asking them to leave with dignity before he loses and lets Trump back in or dies in office. If Biden wants a legacy at all, Trump needs to not be POTUS by the end of the year. Otherwise he'll be another Hillary Clinton; the politician so bad they lost to Donald Trump.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,572
    edited February 9
    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918
    148grss said:

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Of those I think only the first is news / unexpected. The idea that Haley was actually going to give him a run for his money was a joke, and the idea that SCOTUS was going to allow him to not be on the ballot was also highly unlikely.

    But the released details on Biden will certainly sting. And we've still got 9 months to go until polling day - I cannot seem Biden improving in that time (whereas Trump does sometimes put on a good performance, even if he is still clearly a clown).
    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting that there is now an actual official report, saying Biden is basically senile. This is not gossip or snide commentary or attack lines from GOP pundits, this is a legal dude who interviewed Biden and says he is not fit for trial, as he can plead senility and would be acquitted. Yet he's fit to be POTUS for another term?

    Incredibly damning, and there is no way round it. The details in the report are excruciating

    Also, dementia worsens. It is "progressive". Biden is not going to improve, or even stay where he is, he will get even worse, week after week

    Untenable, surely
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,744
    148grss said:

    tlg86 said:

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
    Do the Dems really want to be arguing "vote for our senile politician rather than their senile politician"?
    I am not disputing that Biden appears fragile and the look is sub-optimal, but to then suggest that Trump is head and shoulders more cogent is a downright lie.

    It would be much better if neither stood for re- election. Nonetheless only one has attempted a couple d'etat.
    It's not that Trump is more cogent, as such, it is more the fact that he is more energetic and the insanity that he spews has a narrative. It's a narrative that is borne out of a messianic view of himself, out of vanity and bitterness, out of grievance and conspiracy - but it is a narrative. Biden has just lost a lot of his skill at retail politics and public speaking - whether that's senility or just fatigue who can say. But, again, it is not backing Trump to look at the polling environment and notice that Trump is typically tying or beating Biden, and voters are saying their biggest concern about Biden is his age, and point out that the DNC could deal with that by having a quiet word with Jill and Joe, thanking them for all their hard work, and asking them to leave with dignity before he loses and lets Trump back in or dies in office. If Biden wants a legacy at all, Trump needs to not be POTUS by the end of the year. Otherwise he'll be another Hillary Clinton; the politician so bad they lost to Donald Trump.
    Trouble with that is that all the alternatives to Biden look less likely to beat Trump. That there isn't a version of Biden who isn't hopelessly doddery is to the shame of the Democratic Party and their talent pipleline. But that is to ignore the other elephant in the room; that the Republican Party are willingly, knowingly, falling in behind Trump even after the events of January 2021.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,536
    I don't think that the Ipsos Scottish poll is particularly good news for Starmer, but neither is it bad news.

    The context is that it is the first Ipsos Scottish poll where the SNP's lead has been reduced to single figures, the other Ipsos polls having been in double figures being since Yousaf took over in March 2023, a period when but for one exception every other poll from every other polling company had the SNP down to single digit leads and indeed disappearing altogether in several polls lately.

    So given that there appears to be a pronounced Ipsos house effect this latest poll seems consistent with what might have been expected from Ipsos and with the trend in other Scottish polling.

    What the poll doesn't settle is which house effect best reflects true voting intention.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,425
    Pro_Rata said:

    Ipsos consistently giving the highest SNP leads of any pollster in Scotland only polls and as Mike said that lead has edged down 5 points in successive polls over the last few months.

    If you take an average of the latest Scotland only polls done by 6 different pollsters since Rutherglen, including this one, Labour lead by around 0.2 points, so effectively neck and neck.

    All the usual caveats apply.

    Redfield & Wilton have a recent Scottish Westminster voting opinion poll.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-3-4-february-2024/

    This poll is the only the second time Labour has led in our Scottish Westminster Voting Intention tracker poll. The Scottish National Party, meanwhile, last held a lead over Labour in our Westminster Voting Intention poll in early October.

    For context, the SNP came first in Scotland in the 2019 General Election, taking 45% of the vote and 48 seats, with the Conservatives in second, winning 25% of the vote and six seats. Labour came third at 19% and won only a single Scottish seat.

    Altogether the results (with changes from 9-11 January in parentheses) are as follows:

    Labour 34% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 33% (-2)
    Conservative 18% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)
    Reform UK 4% (+2)
    Green 2% (–)
    Alba Party 1% (NEW)
    Other 0% (-)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,382
    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he isand in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 17,812
    edited February 9
    Header poll: SNP on 39% (-1 since November), Labour on 32% (+2), the Conservatives on 14% (-1), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (unchanged)


    2017 United Kingdom general election in Scotland 2019 United Kingdom general election in Scotland 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland (estimate based on header poll)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    148grss said:

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Of those I think only the first is news / unexpected. The idea that Haley was actually going to give him a run for his money was a joke, and the idea that SCOTUS was going to allow him to not be on the ballot was also highly unlikely.

    But the released details on Biden will certainly sting. And we've still got 9 months to go until polling day - I cannot seem Biden improving in that time (whereas Trump does sometimes put on a good performance, even if he is still clearly a clown).
    Although the big win in the Virgin Islands caucus is significant because Trump came last there in 2016 so Haley must have been hoping she could defeat him.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,072
    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Putin *claims*.

    The problem is, Putin *lies*.

    "“We listened to them, and we realized that these are not people sent for talks but for our capitulation,” a senior Ukrainian negotiator recalled, the Wall Street Journal reported."

    https://www.thebureau.news/p/no-the-west-did-not-sabotage-an-early
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,737

    Selebian said:

    SNP's lead? Given all the posts we see from Scotch experts on here on SNP troubles, I assumed they were at (England) Tory levels of support!

    ETA: And Starner is some senior SNP bod who reacted to the falling poll lead news with 'God!' ? :wink:

    ETA2: Oh, and first like, um, the SNP?

    Agree, this is a good poll for the SNP not Labour. Their leadership chaos not been in the news so much recently possibly having an impact along with them benefitting from Labours position on the Israel-Palestinian war. Would expect it to be closer by the GE.
    One has to compare like with like. Ipsos regularly shows majorities in favour of independence.

    Ipsos might be right, and the rest wrong, but local by-elections and Rutherglen suggest otherwise.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,737
    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Putin was the one who sent 200,000 soldiers over the border, not Johnson.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,485
    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Putin talks crap almost as much as Trump (albeit more coherently).
    Why anyone takes any of his nonsense at face value is beyond me.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Putin talks crap almost as much as Trump (albeit more coherently).
    Why anyone takes any of his nonsense at face value is beyond me.
    Windows. Not the Microsoft kind either.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,744
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Putin *claims*.

    The problem is, Putin *lies*.

    "“We listened to them, and we realized that these are not people sent for talks but for our capitulation,” a senior Ukrainian negotiator recalled, the Wall Street Journal reported."

    https://www.thebureau.news/p/no-the-west-did-not-sabotage-an-early
    It's bloody rich for someone to start a war and then moan about the other side not agreeing to a peace deal.
    As the old joke goes,

    All Putin wants is peace. In this case, a piece of another country.

    (It works better in an audio medium)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8AHPsyNG_k
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    The two most recent polls have her 8 and 13 pts behind Trump.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,803
    The closer to the election that Biden stands down in favour of another Democratic candidate, the harder it will be to dig the dirt on his replacement and create the kind of narratives that now surround Biden. Trump is also old and absolutely fixated on facing the man he lost to in 2020. He may well struggle to pivot effectively to attacking a new opponent with lines as effective as the ones he can use against his current one. Obviously, it won't make a difference to his base but this election will be decided by independents.

    We can only hope. I do not see how Biden beats Trump. There is no way someone as frail as he clearly is fights a sustained election campaign.
  • HarperHarper Posts: 197

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    The two most recent polls have her 8 and 13 pts behind Trump.
    Kamala "blowjob" Harris as candidate. Interesting.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,333

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    The two most recent polls have her 8 and 13 pts behind Trump.
    If the Kamala option was taken, then they really need to get Biden to stand aside so she gets a few months run in from the Oval Office.

    A lot of the attacks she gets are along the lines of “imagine her being president, how awful, just think how bad she’d be.” The only real way that can be neutralised is to allow voters to see her in the role.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    The two most recent polls have her 8 and 13 pts behind Trump.
    I know! - that's why she needs a really heavy hitter as Veep to give her the best chance. Barack Obama would do that (if it is legal, apparently it is a grey area)

    The next few polls on the POTUS elex will be crucial. Has this affected Biden's polling? It's hard to see how it can't be negative, BUT maybe his dodderiness is already priced in for many voters?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,149
    Sean_F said:

    Selebian said:

    SNP's lead? Given all the posts we see from Scotch experts on here on SNP troubles, I assumed they were at (England) Tory levels of support!

    ETA: And Starner is some senior SNP bod who reacted to the falling poll lead news with 'God!' ? :wink:

    ETA2: Oh, and first like, um, the SNP?

    Agree, this is a good poll for the SNP not Labour. Their leadership chaos not been in the news so much recently possibly having an impact along with them benefitting from Labours position on the Israel-Palestinian war. Would expect it to be closer by the GE.
    One has to compare like with like. Ipsos regularly shows majorities in favour of independence.

    Ipsos might be right, and the rest wrong, but local by-elections and Rutherglen suggest otherwise.
    Yeah I agree. Oppositions tend to do better in by-elections, but the Rutherglen result should have been much narrower if the Ipsos Scotland polling was right.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,382
    Can't claim to have watched every minute of Putin's two hour session with Carlson but a couple of mini takes. Putin starts the session with "If I may I'll spend 30 seconds covering the history. Half an hour later he had got to the 19th Century having started in the 8th Century. Tucker finally gets in a weak "That's very interesting". Which in a way it is because Putin seems genuinely motivated by historical grievance.

    The look on Tucker's face when Putin says "You are" in response to who cut Nordstream. ("You will leave for the Siberian work camp following this interview. Ha! Only joking")

    A coup for Carlson to get Putin but I have a feeling it didn't turn out exactly as he hoped. Putin isn't one of them. He's a highly focused spy chief and dictator while MAGA is self indulgence.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,669
    viewcode said:

    Header poll: SNP on 39% (-1 since November), Labour on 32% (+2), the Conservatives on 14% (-1), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (unchanged)


    2017 United Kingdom general election in Scotland

    2019 United Kingdom general election in Scotland 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland (estimate based on header poll)
    When you look at the numbers, the real story is not so much the SNP's decline - it's not been that dramatic given all the recent negative publicity - it's the Labour resurgence, easily leapfrogging the Tories into second. This is a story of relative fortunes of 3 parties. Conservatives holed under the waterline, Labour making decent progress, and the SNP falling back a bit.

    Tactically I would imagine this makes overall seat predictions very difficult. The unionist tactical vote is surely going to unwind almost completely in seats where the Tories are the incumbents or main challengers, so that might be good for the SNP even if they fall back in vote share, unless Labour really surge. But in areas where Labour or Lib Dems are the strongest unionist party presumably there is no such unwind - erstwhile Tories will vote for them. And then there's the unknowable effect of relative salience of the independence issue with the backdrop of which party is likely to be in power in Westminster.
  • HarperHarper Posts: 197

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Putin talks crap almost as much as Trump (albeit more coherently).
    Why anyone takes any of his nonsense at face value is beyond me.
    Windows. Not the Microsoft kind either.
    He would have lost most viewers in his first 30 minutes ramble when he went back to 800 ad.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808

    The closer to the election that Biden stands down in favour of another Democratic candidate, the harder it will be to dig the dirt on his replacement and create the kind of narratives that now surround Biden. Trump is also old and absolutely fixated on facing the man he lost to in 2020. He may well struggle to pivot effectively to attacking a new opponent with lines as effective as the ones he can use against his current one. Obviously, it won't make a difference to his base but this election will be decided by independents.

    We can only hope. I do not see how Biden beats Trump. There is no way someone as frail as he clearly is fights a sustained election campaign.

    If it ends up being Whitmer, then I am in for a handsome pay day.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,469

    Biden justified his decision not to run in 2016 by saying he didn't think he had enough time to run the kind of campaign needed to win.

    Can he run the kind of campaign it would take to win in 2024?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/25/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-decision-jill-biden

    I'm sorry to repeat myself (it doesn't seem to bother you) but just look at this.

    It's not a defence of Biden, but does focus on what Trump can offer in the cognitive department.

    https://youtu.be/vgjS_7eNoOg?si=q71mDDJqOAIEPgk-
    Trump is deranged
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808
    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    3h
    “Democrats will surely spend the weekend asking themselves whether the country really must face a choice between a 77-year-old sociopath and an 81-year-old ‘elderly man with a poor memory.’ Choosing between them is easy, but heaven help us.”
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,196
    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    The two most recent polls have her 8 and 13 pts behind Trump.
    Kamala "blowjob" Harris as candidate. Interesting.
    Please elaborate.

    Kompromat through a two-way mirror like the orange one?
  • HarperHarper Posts: 197
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Putin talks crap almost as much as Trump (albeit more coherently).
    Why anyone takes any of his nonsense at face value is beyond me.
    To be fair this isnt new news for those paying attention.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,473
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    Er, I just said I hope Biden doesn't run. So, yes. And it's a piece of cake to distinguish reasonable concerns about his age and health from Trumpist propaganda. You just look at the language, the tone, and who it's coming from.

    On the dementia, I'm sorry to hear this about your mum, and snap. Mine got an AD diagnosis a year ago, sadly. And boy is it sad. Worse for my dad, probably, at the moment. He's become a fulltime carer at 90.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,591
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    SNP's lead? Given all the posts we see from Scotch experts on here on SNP troubles, I assumed they were at (England) Tory levels of support!

    ETA: And Starner is some senior SNP bod who reacted to the falling poll lead news with 'God!' ? :wink:

    ETA2: Oh, and first like, um, the SNP?

    Agree, this is a good poll for the SNP not Labour. Their leadership chaos not been in the news so much recently possibly having an impact along with them benefitting from Labours position on the Israel-Palestinian war. Would expect it to be closer by the GE.
    On the other hand, there's more to worry about for Slab in terms of London HQ and their overlord SKS. Labour in Scotland have been pretending to be a leftie party - the Rutherglen by election was a prize example of adopting SNP policies for expedience. The more attention SKS gets and the more he trims his sails to the much larger market in England the more the discrepancy will become clear. Interesting.
    I think Labour are a lefty party, though Starmer is something of an unknown himself. As equally likely to be unexpectedly left-wing as the opposite - he has, for example, been exposed to the more extreme symptoms of poverty throughout his career.

    But I entirely agree on the England/Scotland tradeoff. It depends where the marginal gains are - in England, most likely, due to the much larger number of seats. It would be smart to give Sarwar a much higher profile on the campaign literature to help dispel the effect though.

    While personally deeply disappointed, I think the line of the green stuff is fine from an electoral POV - gives him an opportunity to jump in on Tory mismanagement of the public finances over and over again and closes off an obvious attack.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,880
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Putin talks crap almost as much as Trump (albeit more coherently).
    Why anyone takes any of his nonsense at face value is beyond me.
    Yes, not really a 'tricky one' at all.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,669

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    The two most recent polls have her 8 and 13 pts behind Trump.
    If the Kamala option was taken, then they really need to get Biden to stand aside so she gets a few months run in from the Oval Office.

    A lot of the attacks she gets are along the lines of “imagine her being president, how awful, just think how bad she’d be.” The only real way that can be neutralised is to allow voters to see her in the role.

    Kamala with Buttigieg as veep, on the basis they won't be wanting to parachute another white male into the top role. Then use Pete to take the fight to Trump because I think Trump would find him very difficult to cope with.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,485
    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Of those I think only the first is news / unexpected. The idea that Haley was actually going to give him a run for his money was a joke, and the idea that SCOTUS was going to allow him to not be on the ballot was also highly unlikely.

    But the released details on Biden will certainly sting. And we've still got 9 months to go until polling day - I cannot seem Biden improving in that time (whereas Trump does sometimes put on a good performance, even if he is still clearly a clown).
    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting that there is now an actual official report, saying Biden is basically senile. This is not gossip or snide commentary or attack lines from GOP pundits, this is a legal dude who interviewed Biden and says he is not fit for trial, as he can plead senility and would be acquitted. Yet he's fit to be POTUS for another term?

    Incredibly damning, and there is no way round it. The details in the report are excruciating

    Also, dementia worsens. It is "progressive". Biden is not going to improve, or even stay where he is, he will get even worse, week after week

    Untenable, surely
    It's a political hit job.
    But an undeniably effective one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,469
    Sean_F said:

    Selebian said:

    SNP's lead? Given all the posts we see from Scotch experts on here on SNP troubles, I assumed they were at (England) Tory levels of support!

    ETA: And Starner is some senior SNP bod who reacted to the falling poll lead news with 'God!' ? :wink:

    ETA2: Oh, and first like, um, the SNP?

    Agree, this is a good poll for the SNP not Labour. Their leadership chaos not been in the news so much recently possibly having an impact along with them benefitting from Labours position on the Israel-Palestinian war. Would expect it to be closer by the GE.
    One has to compare like with like. Ipsos regularly shows majorities in favour of independence.

    Ipsos might be right, and the rest wrong, but local by-elections and Rutherglen suggest otherwise.
    The SNP are NOT Independence and Rutherglen was a deliberate act based on the way they treated their incumbent compared to all the ne'er do wells, sex pests etc that they ahd supported and kept in place. Lots of Labour are fo rindependence, only their grifter leadership ar ein tune with eth Labour London Tory Lites.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    The two most recent polls have her 8 and 13 pts behind Trump.
    I know! - that's why she needs a really heavy hitter as Veep to give her the best chance. Barack Obama would do that (if it is legal, apparently it is a grey area)

    The next few polls on the POTUS elex will be crucial. Has this affected Biden's polling? It's hard to see how it can't be negative, BUT maybe his dodderiness is already priced in for many voters?
    It is obviously different to the US electorate, but the loudest posters on here today saying Biden can't possibly stand because he is doddery said exactly the same four years ago. They promised it would be Harris taking over within a year or two, max.

    So just like the Trump trials I doubt it moves many votes at all from one camp to the other, but it will impact turnout.

    I also wonder if one of the Republican states now take up the invitation to try and disqualify Biden, just for the press coverage it will generate. I suspect so.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,473
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Of those I think only the first is news / unexpected. The idea that Haley was actually going to give him a run for his money was a joke, and the idea that SCOTUS was going to allow him to not be on the ballot was also highly unlikely.

    But the released details on Biden will certainly sting. And we've still got 9 months to go until polling day - I cannot seem Biden improving in that time (whereas Trump does sometimes put on a good performance, even if he is still clearly a clown).
    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting that there is now an actual official report, saying Biden is basically senile. This is not gossip or snide commentary or attack lines from GOP pundits, this is a legal dude who interviewed Biden and says he is not fit for trial, as he can plead senility and would be acquitted. Yet he's fit to be POTUS for another term?

    Incredibly damning, and there is no way round it. The details in the report are excruciating

    Also, dementia worsens. It is "progressive". Biden is not going to improve, or even stay where he is, he will get even worse, week after week

    Untenable, surely
    It's a political hit job.
    But an undeniably effective one.
    The other side just play dirtier, don't they.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Of those I think only the first is news / unexpected. The idea that Haley was actually going to give him a run for his money was a joke, and the idea that SCOTUS was going to allow him to not be on the ballot was also highly unlikely.

    But the released details on Biden will certainly sting. And we've still got 9 months to go until polling day - I cannot seem Biden improving in that time (whereas Trump does sometimes put on a good performance, even if he is still clearly a clown).
    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting that there is now an actual official report, saying Biden is basically senile. This is not gossip or snide commentary or attack lines from GOP pundits, this is a legal dude who interviewed Biden and says he is not fit for trial, as he can plead senility and would be acquitted. Yet he's fit to be POTUS for another term?

    Incredibly damning, and there is no way round it. The details in the report are excruciating

    Also, dementia worsens. It is "progressive". Biden is not going to improve, or even stay where he is, he will get even worse, week after week

    Untenable, surely
    It's a political hit job.
    But an undeniably effective one.
    Trump has classified documents at Mar a Lago: "It's a disgrace. He's unfit to be President."
    Biden has classified documents in his garage: "It's a political hit job."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808
    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    8h
    76% of Americans say that Biden does not have the mental and physical health to be POTUS for a second term.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,485
    edited February 9

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Of those I think only the first is news / unexpected. The idea that Haley was actually going to give him a run for his money was a joke, and the idea that SCOTUS was going to allow him to not be on the ballot was also highly unlikely.

    But the released details on Biden will certainly sting. And we've still got 9 months to go until polling day - I cannot seem Biden improving in that time (whereas Trump does sometimes put on a good performance, even if he is still clearly a clown).
    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting that there is now an actual official report, saying Biden is basically senile. This is not gossip or snide commentary or attack lines from GOP pundits, this is a legal dude who interviewed Biden and says he is not fit for trial, as he can plead senility and would be acquitted. Yet he's fit to be POTUS for another term?

    Incredibly damning, and there is no way round it. The details in the report are excruciating

    Also, dementia worsens. It is "progressive". Biden is not going to improve, or even stay where he is, he will get even worse, week after week

    Untenable, surely
    It's a political hit job.
    But an undeniably effective one.
    Trump has classified documents at Mar a Lago: "It's a disgrace. He's unfit to be President."
    Biden has classified documents in his garage: "It's a political hit job."
    Trump refused to hand them back, and lied about them.

    Had he behaved as Biden did, there would never have been an indictment, as you well know.

    The political hit job is the extended disquisition on the state of Biden's health. That goes way beyond Hur's remit.

    If you want to draw more daft comparisons, tell me that a President Trump would allow his Attorney General to appoint a Democrat as a special investigator to investigate him (or indeed his son).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,712
    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    One of the few occasions I'd be more inclined to believe Johnson's version of events...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,591
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    Header poll: SNP on 39% (-1 since November), Labour on 32% (+2), the Conservatives on 14% (-1), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (unchanged)


    2017 United Kingdom general election in Scotland

    2019 United Kingdom general election in Scotland 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland (estimate based on header poll)
    When you look at the numbers, the real story is not so much the SNP's decline - it's not been that dramatic given all the recent negative publicity - it's the Labour resurgence, easily leapfrogging the Tories into second. This is a story of relative fortunes of 3 parties. Conservatives holed under the waterline, Labour making decent progress, and the SNP falling back a bit.

    Tactically I would imagine this makes overall seat predictions very difficult. The unionist tactical vote is surely going to unwind almost completely in seats where the Tories are the incumbents or main challengers, so that might be good for the SNP even if they fall back in vote share, unless Labour really surge. But in areas where Labour or Lib Dems are the strongest unionist party presumably there is no such unwind - erstwhile Tories will vote for them. And then there's the unknowable effect of relative salience of the independence issue with the backdrop of which party is likely to be in power in Westminster.
    I previously did some very rough analysis based on age profiles in the 2019 election and found, to my surprise, that the Conservative vote is more depressed in Scotland than Labour's.

    There are so many dynamics:
    Labour -> SNP idealogical swaps
    Tartan Tories
    Unionist tacticals
    The Greens?
    Lib Dems for historical reasons in the north

    I suspect the Sankey diagram for the Scottish vote in the 2010, 2015, 2017,2019 and 2024(?) GEs will look completely incoherent.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,469
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    The SNP would take that, wouldn't they?

    They'd bite your hands off. Right now the SNP are absolutely insolvent. Generating funds is proving difficult when £600k of supposedly ring fenced funds can just disappear from the accounts without anyone raising an eyebrow or a question. The dishonesty of Sturgeon in all her dealings has become ever more apparent and she is a much diminished figure that is likely to cause Yousaf more problems.

    Fighting a general election with no funds available is going to be a major challenge and a big change from 2019. Labour see the chance of 20-25 easy seats which may well give them an overall majority. Funding is unlikely to be an issue for them.
    They are in deep shit, have also taken all the branch funds for central use and apart from teh short money have nothing and NO donatoins now that teh donors know the money does not reach the coffers.
    Could not happen to a better lot and perhaps a new cleansed SNP will rise from the ashes. Unfortunately they will cling on at Holyrood till the bitter end.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    The Democrats have given themselves an impossible problem.

    If Biden runs and loses to Trump, it will be their fault for letting him run when he was clearly too old, but if they force him to step aside and then lose, it will be their fault for replacing Biden with an untested candidate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918
    edited February 9
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    Er, I just said I hope Biden doesn't run. So, yes. And it's a piece of cake to distinguish reasonable concerns about his age and health from Trumpist propaganda. You just look at the language, the tone, and who it's coming from.

    On the dementia, I'm sorry to hear this about your mum, and snap. Mine got an AD diagnosis a year ago, sadly. And boy is it sad. Worse for my dad, probably, at the moment. He's become a fulltime carer at 90.
    Sympathies right back at you. It is a pretty horrific illness. It is terrible to say, but it might have been better if my poor Mum had keeled over with a heart attack a few years back (she's had a pacemaker for a decade). But we are where we are

    The only saving grace for my Mum is that her partner also has dementia and is losing the plot at about the same pace, and they are in nice sheltered housing. So they are kind of sinking together, half aware of things

    To be sane and lucid, like your father, and forced to care for a demented spouse, God that's tough

    One reason I am sure Biden has dementia is his way of interweaving real stories (eg about his dead son Beau) with clear confabulations (Beau did not die in Fallujah), constructing a new reality impromptu, for no obvious reason. My mum does this constantly

    I think it is the brain replacing missing memories, in a kind of panic, to create any old narrative, even if obviously bogus. Very sad
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,823
    edited February 9
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    Er, I just said I hope Biden doesn't run. So, yes. And it's a piece of cake to distinguish reasonable concerns about his age and health from Trumpist propaganda. You just look at the language, the tone, and who it's coming from.

    On the dementia, I'm sorry to hear this about your mum, and snap. Mine got an AD diagnosis a year ago, sadly. And boy is it sad. Worse for my dad, probably, at the moment. He's become a fulltime carer at 90.
    My FIL is a carer at 92. Fortunately he is fit although there are some small signs he might go the same way.

    MIL is at the stage of fighting with any carers, whoever they are. There's nobody at home really (although she does manage to say 'I want to be dead' on occasion) but what can you do? Care homes have not proved to be very good during the odd attempt at respite.

    My Aunt refused treatment for cancer. Perhaps she had a point.


    Edit: I wouldn't like to say whether Biden is also a sufferer as you need to see people day to day to understand how they really are. But he should clearly not be standing for President.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,737
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    Header poll: SNP on 39% (-1 since November), Labour on 32% (+2), the Conservatives on 14% (-1), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (unchanged)


    2017 United Kingdom general election in Scotland

    2019 United Kingdom general election in Scotland 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland (estimate based on header poll)
    When you look at the numbers, the real story is not so much the SNP's decline - it's not been that dramatic given all the recent negative publicity - it's the Labour resurgence, easily leapfrogging the Tories into second. This is a story of relative fortunes of 3 parties. Conservatives holed under the waterline, Labour making decent progress, and the SNP falling back a bit.

    Tactically I would imagine this makes overall seat predictions very difficult. The unionist tactical vote is surely going to unwind almost completely in seats where the Tories are the incumbents or main challengers, so that might be good for the SNP even if they fall back in vote share, unless Labour really surge. But in areas where Labour or Lib Dems are the strongest unionist party presumably there is no such unwind - erstwhile Tories will vote for them. And then there's the unknowable effect of relative salience of the independence issue with the backdrop of which party is likely to be in power in Westminster.
    I'd expect the Conservative vote to be very solid, in Con/SNP battlegrounds, while falling back elsewhere.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808
    Wes Streeting needs to be front and centre of Lab's election campaign.

    He's a top class communicator with last night's QT as just one example.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,473

    The Democrats have given themselves an impossible problem.

    If Biden runs and loses to Trump, it will be their fault for letting him run when he was clearly too old, but if they force him to step aside and then lose, it will be their fault for replacing Biden with an untested candidate.

    This problem will be solved by Trump losing. And if he wins it's a problem that will have to jostle for attention amidst a dozen rather more serious ones.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Of those I think only the first is news / unexpected. The idea that Haley was actually going to give him a run for his money was a joke, and the idea that SCOTUS was going to allow him to not be on the ballot was also highly unlikely.

    But the released details on Biden will certainly sting. And we've still got 9 months to go until polling day - I cannot seem Biden improving in that time (whereas Trump does sometimes put on a good performance, even if he is still clearly a clown).
    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting that there is now an actual official report, saying Biden is basically senile. This is not gossip or snide commentary or attack lines from GOP pundits, this is a legal dude who interviewed Biden and says he is not fit for trial, as he can plead senility and would be acquitted. Yet he's fit to be POTUS for another term?

    Incredibly damning, and there is no way round it. The details in the report are excruciating

    Also, dementia worsens. It is "progressive". Biden is not going to improve, or even stay where he is, he will get even worse, week after week

    Untenable, surely
    It's a political hit job.
    But an undeniably effective one.
    Trump has classified documents at Mar a Lago: "It's a disgrace. He's unfit to be President."
    Biden has classified documents in his garage: "It's a political hit job."
    Trump refused to hand them back, and lied about them.

    Had he behaved as Biden did, there would never have been an indictment, as you well know.

    The political hit job is the extended disquisition on the state of Biden's health. That goes way beyond Hur's remit.

    If you want to draw more daft comparisons, tell me that a President Trump would allow his Attorney General to appoint a Democrat as a special investigator to investigate him (or indeed his son).
    But the ONLY reason Biden is not being prosecuted, for illegally storing classified documents, is because he is too senile to stand trial

    That's not a political hit job, that's a legal judgement
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,823

    Wes Streeting needs to be front and centre of Lab's election campaign.

    He's a top class communicator with last night's QT as just one example.

    I only saw the first part of QT and thought he was a bit ranty to be honest.

    He might well have had something to rant about but I'd prefer to hear positive ideas than complaints about how sh*t things are.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,485
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    Er, I just said I hope Biden doesn't run. So, yes. And it's a piece of cake to distinguish reasonable concerns about his age and health from Trumpist propaganda. You just look at the language, the tone, and who it's coming from.

    On the dementia, I'm sorry to hear this about your mum, and snap. Mine got an AD diagnosis a year ago, sadly. And boy is it sad. Worse for my dad, probably, at the moment. He's become a fulltime carer at 90.
    It's pretty horrible for the partner.
    My mother had about a decade of it with my father.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    kinabalu said:

    The Democrats have given themselves an impossible problem.

    If Biden runs and loses to Trump, it will be their fault for letting him run when he was clearly too old, but if they force him to step aside and then lose, it will be their fault for replacing Biden with an untested candidate.

    This problem will be solved by Trump losing. And if he wins it's a problem that will have to jostle for attention amidst a dozen rather more serious ones.
    That explains the denialism. Trump must lose, but he looks likely to win...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,677
    edited February 9
    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    Header poll: SNP on 39% (-1 since November), Labour on 32% (+2), the Conservatives on 14% (-1), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (unchanged)


    2017 United Kingdom general election in Scotland

    2019 United Kingdom general election in Scotland 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland (estimate based on header poll)
    When you look at the numbers, the real story is not so much the SNP's decline - it's not been that dramatic given all the recent negative publicity - it's the Labour resurgence, easily leapfrogging the Tories into second. This is a story of relative fortunes of 3 parties. Conservatives holed under the waterline, Labour making decent progress, and the SNP falling back a bit.

    Tactically I would imagine this makes overall seat predictions very difficult. The unionist tactical vote is surely going to unwind almost completely in seats where the Tories are the incumbents or main challengers, so that might be good for the SNP even if they fall back in vote share, unless Labour really surge. But in areas where Labour or Lib Dems are the strongest unionist party presumably there is no such unwind - erstwhile Tories will vote for them. And then there's the unknowable effect of relative salience of the independence issue with the backdrop of which party is likely to be in power in Westminster.
    I'd expect the Conservative vote to be very solid, in Con/SNP battlegrounds, while falling back elsewhere.
    Gordon could be Rishi's Putney. Though the Lib Dems might win from third there. Perhaps. Not sure. Interesting seat anyway.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 437
    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    The two most recent polls have her 8 and 13 pts behind Trump.
    Kamala "blowjob" Harris as candidate. Interesting.
    Is that, er, supposed to be an insult? I'd imagine that most of the other potential candidates will have had oral sex at some point in their lives, too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 6,751

    CNN: Trump has his best day of 2024

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/analysis-trump-2024-special-counsel-nevada-supreme-court/index.html

    ► The former president was handed a political gift. An independent special counsel poured kerosene on concerns about Joe Biden’s age with pointed language about the president’s poor memory after concluding Biden had willfully mishandled classified documents – and that his failing memory makes him impossible to convict. Biden was on defense at a hastily called White House news conference. “My memory is fine,” Biden said.

    ► He is on a glide path to the Republican nomination. Trump romped in the Nevada and US Virgin Island caucuses Thursday night, continuing his unbeaten streak and making Nikki Haley’s campaign feel futile.

    ► He appears poised for a win at the Supreme Court. Justices expressed deep skepticism that Colorado could declare him an insurrectionist and bar him from their election ballots.

    It’s a one-two-three combo that should have Trump feeling solid about his political future, at least for a moment.

    Yes, it has been a good day for Trump. Which means it has been a bad day for the US and democracy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,918
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon and William do have a point. It's not whether Biden is more demented than Trump - I'm not sure he is and in any case he's clearly a better person and actually not a bad president on his track record.

    No. For the rest of us Biden's primary task is to stop Trump. He managed that successfully in 2020 when others maybe wouldn't have. Will he manage it again in 2024? If not, we need someone else.

    He may or may not be in the early stages of dementia (people being definitive either way are ignorable) but there’s no doubt about the lapses and frailty. He’s been a good president but he really shouldn’t be offering himself for a 2nd term. I hope he has a change of heart and doesn’t. I think this is very possible.

    With the shit swirling around both of them I’m of the view that the ‘nailed on’ Trump Biden rematch is no more than a 50/50 shot to happen. I have it laid at 1.4 and I’m happy with that. But if it does happen I’ll be rooting 1000% for Joe. If he wins and then has to stand down at some point due to health reasons, so what. It will be managed. The risks of Trump2 are on a different scale.

    So in a nutshell what I say is, “Go Joe please”, but if you don’t “Go Joe!”
    Have you not had someone close suffer dementia?

    If not, count yourself lucky, it is deeply painful to watch - possibly worse for the witnesses than it is for the demented

    My mum was diagnosed with it last year, it distresses me greatly. I've also watched my older daughter's great granmother and now grandmother go down with it. I was quite close to the latter. And I've seen it in aunts, the parents of friends, etc. It is one of the great curses of modern times. we can keep people alive so long, but we can't save their minds

    Biden looks exactly like these people, the dodderiness. the vagueness, the wandering, the truly spectacular memory losses, the confusion of identities, the decay of syntax in the speech, the inability to string sentences together; indeed, he looks like quite an advanced case. So bad, as the legal report says, that he cannot be prosecuted. He is too senile to stand trial - that is their judgement. Let that sink in

    Biden is right there in front of us, exhibiting all this. It is not some kind of pro-Trump propaganda to point this out

    And, if you really want Trump beaten, it is better that this is accepted and Biden is persuaded to retire, and they find someone younger

    I still quite like my idea of Kamala, with Barack Obama as veep (if that is legal). I reckon that would beat Trump soundly
    Er, I just said I hope Biden doesn't run. So, yes. And it's a piece of cake to distinguish reasonable concerns about his age and health from Trumpist propaganda. You just look at the language, the tone, and who it's coming from.

    On the dementia, I'm sorry to hear this about your mum, and snap. Mine got an AD diagnosis a year ago, sadly. And boy is it sad. Worse for my dad, probably, at the moment. He's become a fulltime carer at 90.
    It's pretty horrible for the partner.
    My mother had about a decade of it with my father.
    It must be one of the worst ways to spend your final years, arguably worse than actually having dementia?


    Liike @Flatlander's MIL, my Mum will occasionally have apparently lucid moments when she says things like "I wish I was dead", or "just put me in a home so I can die"

    WTF are you meant to do with that? She does have other lucid moments when she seems reasonably happy. I cling on to those

    A bitter irony is that many years ago she said to me (about some batty old relative) "if I ever get like that, please smother me with a cushion"
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,880

    Wes Streeting needs to be front and centre of Lab's election campaign.

    He's a top class communicator with last night's QT as just one example.

    He pretty much already is. I agree he was good on QT - I think he's improved a lot recently.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 8,924

    The Democrats have given themselves an impossible problem.

    If Biden runs and loses to Trump, it will be their fault for letting him run when he was clearly too old, but if they force him to step aside and then lose, it will be their fault for replacing Biden with an untested candidate.

    I wouldn't quite say that. They have a choice. There are risks attached to it. They should just hope they get it right.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,838

    isam said:

    Here’s a tricky one

    Vladimir Putin has claimed Boris Johnson is to blame for the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

    The Russian President said he was ready to end the war 18 months ago, but that the former Prime Minister put pressure on Ukraine's leaders to back out of the peace deal. Johnson has dismissed the claims as ‘propaganda’.

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1755841716576206872?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    He's been saying this for a while. As far as I can make out based on some excellent podcasts (War on the Rocks and Geopolitics Decanted) what actually happened was that there was a negotiation, but it was stuck on what the Russians euphemistically called "neutrality". Their demand was that there be no more foreign military support for Ukraine, and western-supplied weapons be removed. Since the only place Ukraine was going to get weapons to defend themselves was from the west, this was effectively a demand that Ukraine demilitarize.

    This was happening in April, 2022, after Putin had attempted a full invasion of Ukraine and been partially repelled. They'd managed to get the Russians away from Kiev, and discovered the horrific war crimes at Bucha. Previously there had been multiple deals with Russia that Russia had broken, and after they invaded Crimea they'd said they had no intention of invading the rest of Ukraine. Initially (before the Ukrainians inflicted a partial defeat on them) they'd been making much more extensive demands, for example that the elected leaders of Ukraine be handed over and put on trial. So obviously if Ukraine disarmed it wouldn't be long before Putin came back for the rest of the country and tried again to do what he'd just failed to do.

    It seems to be true that when Boris Johnson visited Kiev he told them that they'd be absolutely barking mad to do a deal with Russia on those terms. But not having cornflakes for brains, the Ukrainians already knew this.
    It’s also the issue of agency. Putin & Co. deny that Ukraine exists.

    To them it’s West Russian, with False Consciousness among the Right People. The Wrong People will be deleted when normality is restored with the return of Ukraine to Mother Russia. And the Right People de-brainwashed.

    So Ukraine must be a puppet of other, Real Countries.
This discussion has been closed.