Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
Someone like Barclay or Tugendhat will think, if they get a much better than expected result - anything over 200 seats as everyone on earth believes Sunak’s on for 150 or less - they stand a chance of staying on. That’s the type of Tory the Tories will turn to, to try and salvage as much as they can from an upcoming General Election.
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
True for anyone who thinks they have a future in the Conservative party in 2025.
So... if there is to be a non-Rishi candidate, there are two possible sources.
One is a sort of Michael Howard, thinking "I expect I'll lose, but steadying the ship is a final duty in public life." And who knows? Miracles may happen. See May or Gove nominated by acclamation.
The other is someone high profile who is out if the Conservatives continue down this path, but survives if they can haul themselves back to 200 seats or so. PM 4 PM, Part 3?
Neither of them is likely, and I still expect the battered remains of Rishi Sunak to lead the Conservatives to a really bad defeat, probably in December. But we may be entering "eliminate the impossible and what remains is the truth" territory.
200 seats is beyond any of the likely candidates, I'd have thought. More like 100-120 seats with Sunak vs 140-160 with A. N. Other.
So that means maybe 60-80 current MPs, allowing for some optimism bias, who might hope that a new leader would help them save their seats. How many are needed to trigger a confidence vote?
Ah, 54. So perhaps doable after all.
But at that point, the risks of the wrong leader being chosen militate against - and that would rule out someone like PM.
You'd have to find someone who you could be sure would hold a new leadership contest after the election, and that would rule out Gove - no-one would trust him not to at least load the dice in favour of a preferred successor.
So it would need to be someone: a) better at both politics and leadership than Sunak, b) who isn't standing down at the next election, c) is neither despised nor deeply distrusted by any of the current major factions, and d) has a strong sense of duty
Therefore: step forward, Theresa May, our next PM?
I think you'd need to be rather brave to take that bet!
May is the only one who could genuinely create the kind of “return of the grown ups” mood that some people thought they would get with Sunak.
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
Someone like Barclay or Tugendhat will think, if they get a much better than expected result - anything over 200 seats as everyone on earth believes Sunak’s on for 150 or less - they stand a chance of staying on. That’s the type of Tory the Tories will turn to, to try and salvage as much as they can from an upcoming General Election.
No, there are too many wired to the moon Tory MPs to allow someone as moderate as Barclay or Tugendhat an unopposed contest. Then the members would pick the candidate wired to Rwanda.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
Pretty sure I understand them. The victimy self pity of the right has become a huge thing (when they’re not pwng the libtards).
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
Someone like Barclay or Tugendhat will think, if they get a much better than expected result - anything over 200 seats as everyone on earth believes Sunak’s on for 150 or less - they stand a chance of staying on. That’s the type of Tory the Tories will turn to, to try and salvage as much as they can from an upcoming General Election.
Does everyone in earth believe that? 150 would be worse than 1997 - certainly on net losses, but also just on number of seats. I mean, it could be that bad but plenty of people, me included would put the central estimate at about 200.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
Pretty sure I understand them. The victimy self pity of the right has become a huge thing (when they’re not pwng the libtards).
TBF there's an increasing lack of public conveniences, but they could just shit in the woods like Rangers fans.
Phantom thread related rather than this one, but Sunak went badly wrong in the first five seconds of his answer well before the controversial bit. Grinning inanely whilst boasting about waiting lists coming down. It is a message that is key but just cannot be delivered with tiggerish enthusiasm and no empathy.
The takeaway for me is not really the controversy but a re-enforcement of my view that Sunak is really really bad at being PM and will get hammered in a campaign. Therefore, sorry Brenda, but we shall have two new PMs this year.
How do we get there from here, though?
In the past, Tory splits were fairly straightforward - wet vs dry, pro-Europe vs sceptic, moderniser vs core values, anti-Brexit vs pro, populism vs managerialism.
But now the party's split at least five or six ways, and the fracture lines run all over the map. Why risk an abbreviated contest that would risk leaving the wrong faction on top after the election? Better to put up with an incompetent-but-biddable Sunak for now, and have a proper deathmatch leadership election next year.
I certainly wouldn't rule out a VONC and subsequent leadership contest, especially if the locals are particularly bad (they may well be). But there are only fruitcakes and loons; half the parliamentary party is retiring (including much of the not-mental wing) and will be eyeing directorships and after-dinner jobs - will they have have the stomach to fight a Braverman coronation, or just think 'fuck it, I'm out, let them burn their own house down'?
Tough times to be a Tory.
The Tories were wanting to appoint Neil Warnock as caretaker manager until the end of the season, but he’s just signed up with Aberdeen, so is unavailable.
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
Fortunately the BBC seems to be hiding the story on Radio 4 after Blinken, Tucker, and a couple of others. Shelagh Fogarty on LBC was more critical of Starmer than Sunak.
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
Pretty sure I understand them. The victimy self pity of the right has become a huge thing (when they’re not pwng the libtards).
TBF there's an increasing lack of public conveniences, but they could just shit in the woods like Rangers fans.
It’s George Square I’m worried about if they win the league again.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
There is actually a bona fide Scottish poll out today, mysteriously not getting the attention of said sub samples.
@rcs1000, @TSE, @Anabobazina has informed me that they are access-restricted again for reasons unknown. Can you free them from the outer darkness please?
He's set off the spam trap again with his repeated use of
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
Or “Brown’s raid on pension funds” as it became known in hindsight. I remember it at the time and nobody was thinking beyond the fact they were just tinkering with the payment regime for CT.
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
There is actually a bona fide Scottish poll out today, mysteriously not getting the attention of said sub samples.
Based on the fact you mentioned it I assume it’s quite positive for Indy parties?
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
Someone like Barclay or Tugendhat will think, if they get a much better than expected result - anything over 200 seats as everyone on earth believes Sunak’s on for 150 or less - they stand a chance of staying on. That’s the type of Tory the Tories will turn to, to try and salvage as much as they can from an upcoming General Election.
Does everyone in earth believe that? 150 would be worse than 1997 - certainly on net losses, but also just on number of seats. I mean, it could be that bad but plenty of people, me included would put the central estimate at about 200.
200 is a loss of 165. Hills currently are: 5/4, 201+ losses; 15/8, 151-200 losses.
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
There is actually a bona fide Scottish poll out today, mysteriously not getting the attention of said sub samples.
When talking specifically about Brianna, didn't Sunak refer to her as a girl/woman? If so, he was right to do so but how does it sit with what he said previously?
But so did SKS, which makes Mr Sunak's (and Ms Braverman's) words even odder. To put it politely.
I’m just catching up on today’s news and do I read correctly that he made a “humorous” jibe about SKS and trans women while the mother of Brianna was in the gallery? Good god, what an idiot
seems to be contradictory views on social media as to whether or not she was there .
Does it actually matter? He was told she was there, and yet he went ahead with his transphobic attack.
SKS: Mr Speaker, this week the unwavering bravery of Brianna Ghey's mother, Esther, has touched us all. As a father, I cannot even imagine the pain that she's going through, and I'm glad that she's with us in the gallery here today. Sunak: hahaha, trans people.
Laughing at a struggling Iceland worker last week, laughing at a murdered girl's mother this week. You might be forgiven for thinking that there's a pattern there.
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
Deliberate or not he’s guaranteed himself a lot of publicity as the man who disrespected a bereaved parent. People on all sides of the trans debate find what he said shabby.
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
There is actually a bona fide Scottish poll out today, mysteriously not getting the attention of said sub samples.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I read the article. I am going to ask you a question. The question I am about to ask you is a real question, and when I ask you it you might want to go back thru the article again. I am not making it up: it is a real question.
OK, here we go.
"Did Julian Adorney speak to a single leftist whilst writing the article?"
This is in contradistinction to reading stuff on the internet, or reading books. Just speak to a single individual.
The reason why I ask is because I think he's speculating on the reasons and citing works to say that his speculations are possible. Which is at best is plausible speculation, instead of proof, or even an argument backed up by facts.
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
There is actually a bona fide Scottish poll out today, mysteriously not getting the attention of said sub samples.
Based on the fact you mentioned it I assume it’s quite positive for Indy parties?
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
There is actually a bona fide Scottish poll out today, mysteriously not getting the attention of said sub samples.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
Pretty sure I understand them. The victimy self pity of the right has become a huge thing (when they’re not pwng the libtards).
TBF there's an increasing lack of public conveniences, but they could just shit in the woods like Rangers fans.
It’s George Square I’m worried about if they win the league again.
So long as it's the one on the Clyde. The other one has to cope with its giant walnut whip already.
My favourite PB set-to is still one I remember from about 2008. Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers. One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience". The other said it was just a building site. And all hell broke loose!
Lol!
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
There is actually a bona fide Scottish poll out today, mysteriously not getting the attention of said sub samples.
For me, one of the most important lessons of being on PB is that so many people assume that if it's got Scottish in the name it was set up by the SNP and paid for by southron money.
Even RP - who is not of that ilk - was mildly surprised to learn from me that there had been such a thing as Scottish administrative devolution about a century and a quarter ago.
There's also another Scotland poll out today to go with the Ipsos one.
Lots of questions, headline figures
This poll is the only the second time Labour has led in our Scottish Westminster Voting Intention tracker poll. The Scottish National Party, meanwhile, last held a lead over Labour in our Westminster Voting Intention poll in early October.
For context, the SNP came first in Scotland in the 2019 General Election, taking 45% of the vote and 48 seats, with the Conservatives in second, winning 25% of the vote and six seats. Labour came third at 19% and won only a single Scottish seat.
Altogether the results (with changes from 9-11 January in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 34% (-1) Scottish National Party 33% (-2) Conservative 18% (+1) Liberal Democrat 8% (-1) Reform UK 4% (+2) Green 2% (–) Alba Party 1% (NEW) Other 0% (-1)
and
Our latest Scottish independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 4%, the joint-largest lead for ‘no’ since late October.
47% (–) of Scottish respondents now say they would vote ‘no’ and 43% (-3) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should be an independent country. 10% (+3) don’t know how they would vote.
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
I don’t completely buy this.
Sure a group worked together on Sunak’s script, but still I think it was a bungle more than a plan, a failure to read a room bungle, that you should not expect from political leaders despite what script you’ve handed them.
I think Levido is more sharp than political opponents give him credit, and has a migraine tonight wondering what he’s taken on here. No not just his employer being tone deaf and needs to be locked in a fridge from here till election day, it’s the party around him doesn’t believe in the same thing anymore. Spin doctors can’t herd cats.
@rcs1000, @TSE, @Anabobazina has informed me that they are access-restricted again for reasons unknown. Can you free them from the outer darkness please?
He's set off the spam trap again with his repeated use of
T
R
U
S
S
He needs to stop acting like a child.
Just tell him every time he does that it's £10 to site funds.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
Trump supporters can go fxck themselves ! There’s nothing to understand , you can’t have a reasoned debate with people who don’t accept facts and who are obsessed with conspiracy theories .
Trump and his supporters are a cancer on the USA .
Rishi Sunak would be using gay people as his jokes a few years ago. For somebody who I am sure has experienced attacks because of the colour of his skin, it is disgraceful he seems so uncaring.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
Trump supporters can go fxck themselves ! There’s nothing to understand , you can’t have a reasoned debate with people who don’t accept facts and who are obsessed with conspiracy theories .
Trump and his supporters are a cancer on the USA .
The most prevalent conspiracy theory, or Big Lie, was that Trump was a Russian plant and the election was stolen using Facebook manipulation.
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
Alternatively Sunak comes across as cruel and an odious twat . So no I don’t buy this is part of some master plan .
I am refusing to believe the whiteboard thing is real. It can’t be. No self-respecting comms team would allow that to happen. They just wouldn’t. Must be an elaborate practical joke
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
What's to understand? Clinton was right, they are a "basket of deplorables" and that's being extremely polite about it. I've no time for any Trump supporter or apologist.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Interesting but incorrect. Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives. A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
Deliberate or not he’s guaranteed himself a lot of publicity as the man who disrespected a bereaved parent. People on all sides of the trans debate find what he said shabby.
He also, and I’m afraid this is playground logic, doesn’t have the charisma and presence to carry it off.
Trump is a physically imposing man, rather intimidating, very much the toxic male but hard to ignore or dismiss. He says revoltingly bigoted things frequently, but forces the listener to choose which side they’re on. There’s an evolutionary instinct at play in the viewer I think. If you oppose the alpha you better consider the risks.
Sunak has none of that. He seems an agreeably friendly, gentle soul and wholly unthreatening. So when he says something bigoted the reaction isn’t fight or flight. The amygdala isn’t troubled. It’s “what a c**t”.
I remember the mean girls at school calling someone a “pathetic little racist”. They chose one of the small weedy boys. Plenty of first-15 boys were racist too but they fancied them.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
What's to understand? Clinton was right, they are a "basket of deplorables" and that's being extremely polite about it. I've no time for any Trump supporter or apologist.
Bear in mind many of Trumps supporters live lives of chronic economic insecurity. This means they have no time for the luxury beliefs of the laptop class. Hence the anger.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Interesting but incorrect. Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives. A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
What's to understand? Clinton was right, they are a "basket of deplorables" and that's being extremely polite about it. I've no time for any Trump supporter or apologist.
Bear in mind many of Trumps supporters live lives of chronic economic insecurity. This means they have no time for the luxury beliefs of the laptop class. Hence the anger.
Rubbish. Trump did nothing to improve their lives, and they can't pretend that they don't now know what he'd be like as President. Anyone voting for Trump in 2024 knows full well what he is. That anyone continues to support Trump is a very black mark on them.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott tells me she doesn’t think Rishi Sunak did anything wrong at PMQs today
They’re doing a good job of spinning this story out. Either evil genius or malign incompetence.
Unless the country really is a seething mass of transphobes I tend to the latter.
Doubling down seems to have become a Conservative article of faith since Cummings. It’s what did for Boris repeatedly, with Patterson and Pincher, the Savile nonsense and the refusal to come clean over parties. They keep doing it against all logic.
Sunak comes across as the sort of bully you'd expect to find at an elite private school.
Not intimidating or tough, but snide and looking down on those less fortunate, less wealthy or less clever than him. Others are there to be climbed up.
So when he sees the mother of a murdered girl, he sees an opportunity to get his culture war rubbish about trans people on the front page. Calculate a comment to get a rise out of Starmer (in a way Starmer would normally brush off) and your culture war crap is on the front page of the Daily Mail.
No appreciation at all for the crassness of this, and how rude it is to use the presence the mother of a murdered schoolgirl as a political prop in this way.
It was telling the genuine disbelief and anger in Starmer's response.
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
Deliberate or not he’s guaranteed himself a lot of publicity as the man who disrespected a bereaved parent. People on all sides of the trans debate find what he said shabby.
He also, and I’m afraid this is playground logic, doesn’t have the charisma and presence to carry it off.
Trump is a physically imposing man, rather intimidating, very much the toxic male but hard to ignore or dismiss. He says revoltingly bigoted things frequently, but forces the listener to choose which side they’re on. There’s an evolutionary instinct at play in the viewer I think. If you oppose the alpha you better consider the risks.
Sunak has none of that. He seems an agreeably friendly, gentle soul and wholly unthreatening. So when he says something bigoted the reaction isn’t fight or flight. The amygdala isn’t troubled. It’s “what a c**t”.
I remember the mean girls at school calling someone a “pathetic little racist”. They chose one of the small weedy boys. Plenty of first-15 boys were racist too but they fancied them.
Yes and its why the alpha male jock can get away with being an asshole to women in a way the scrawny nerd cant. Its not fair but politics works like that too. Sunak comes across as an eager to please mummys boy the very opposite of an alpha male. Hence he earns the contempt of much of the electorate.
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
Someone like Barclay or Tugendhat will think, if they get a much better than expected result - anything over 200 seats as everyone on earth believes Sunak’s on for 150 or less - they stand a chance of staying on. That’s the type of Tory the Tories will turn to, to try and salvage as much as they can from an upcoming General Election.
Does everyone in earth believe that? 150 would be worse than 1997 - certainly on net losses, but also just on number of seats. I mean, it could be that bad but plenty of people, me included would put the central estimate at about 200.
Not Everyone on earth, if not you Sir Norfolk, but Prof Curtice certainly suggested 150 seats recently, based on his calculation. Other Seat calculators suggest worse on current polling, even without tactical voting. Tories averaging under 27% in polls and LLG over 55 suggests 150 or worse,. You could explain how and why you disagree and know better than psephologists and pollsters, but the better question for you to answer though, is it only Sunak who gets the best result for Tories at the next election, or could they now get a better result under Barclay or Tugendhat?
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
What's to understand? Clinton was right, they are a "basket of deplorables" and that's being extremely polite about it. I've no time for any Trump supporter or apologist.
Bear in mind many of Trumps supporters live lives of chronic economic insecurity. This means they have no time for the luxury beliefs of the laptop class. Hence the anger.
Many do certainly. The Dems have a major issue having seemly abandoned old school economic stuff for the 'blue collar' and got lost in identity issues.
Several books on this.
Key one is "White Working Class: Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America" by Joan Williams.
Mark Lilla has also written good and clear stuff on where the Dems are going wrong.
Biden papered over this a little just because he was 'joe' and clearly from that world. But I am fearful that trick wont work this time.
I am refusing to believe the whiteboard thing is real. It can’t be. No self-respecting comms team would allow that to happen. They just wouldn’t. Must be an elaborate practical joke
I think he sees this as a 2024 equivalent of Major's 'soapbox in the market square' in 1992.
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
The father of murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey has demanded an apology from Rishi Sunak, saying he was "shocked" by the prime minister's comments in the Commons today.
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
I don't think people appreciate that Sunak's staggering crassness was entirely deliberate.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
Alternatively Sunak comes across as cruel and an odious twat . So no I don’t buy this is part of some master plan .
Most of what I know about human evil comes from being a suburban science master who has taught teenagers.
And bullying, picking on the outsider, is fun and satisfying. And it's really tempting to keep upping the ante.
The art is staying just the right side of the line- being unpleasant, but with just enough deniability. (It helps, as @TimS has said, to have the charisma to dodge questioning on it.)
The risk is always that you go too far. In shock jockery or polemic column writing, you get fired. In a person-to-person situation, something horrible happens. But by then, it's too late.
The trouble for Conservative ministers is that they have to defend the boss- it's the first line of their job description. Which means that some of the mud sticks to them as well.
I am refusing to believe the whiteboard thing is real. It can’t be. No self-respecting comms team would allow that to happen. They just wouldn’t. Must be an elaborate practical joke
It's not the first time we've heard stories that various people in No 10 hate Rishi create ideas that make him look foolish / provide meme point scoring opportunities.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Interesting but incorrect. Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives. A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
Kissing Putins arse does too.
Putin met Trump in Helsinki and nothing bad happened afterwards.
Putin met Biden in Geneva, and shortly afterwards he launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
I am refusing to believe the whiteboard thing is real. It can’t be. No self-respecting comms team would allow that to happen. They just wouldn’t. Must be an elaborate practical joke
I think he sees this as a 2024 equivalent of Major's 'soapbox in the market square' in 1992.
I'm genuinely surprised he's whiteboarding it, I would have thought that he was much more of an overly-manicured Powerpoint sort of person.
I am refusing to believe the whiteboard thing is real. It can’t be. No self-respecting comms team would allow that to happen. They just wouldn’t. Must be an elaborate practical joke
I think he sees this as a 2024 equivalent of Major's 'soapbox in the market square' in 1992.
More Petty Officer (3rd Class) Sunak than Major Sunak.
"What Rachel Reeves meant of course is that higher interest costs and lower fiscal “headroom” in the UK have made it harder to stick to the £28bn strategy, but it is curious that a party running 22 points ahead in the polls lacks the confidence to stick to its signature policy.
It is overly haunted by the Kinnock debacle of the early 1990s"
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 39m Given the storm swirling around Rishi Sunak after PMQs, I just don’t understand why Labour would choose this moment to validate his critique of Starmer flip-flopping all over the place.
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar EXCL: Keir Starmer will announce *tomorrow* that he's scaling back Labour’s flagship £28bn green investment plan following weeks of uncertainty.
I'm not a fan of the guy (obvs) but he's beginning to tug at my heart. He's in trouble and what is his thought process? "I'll do a presentation! On a flip-chart! That'll do it!" He's making the same mistakes I would. (He's also making ones I wouldn't, but that's not my point). He's not good, he's not bad, he's just in the wrong job.
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
Someone like Barclay or Tugendhat will think, if they get a much better than expected result - anything over 200 seats as everyone on earth believes Sunak’s on for 150 or less - they stand a chance of staying on. That’s the type of Tory the Tories will turn to, to try and salvage as much as they can from an upcoming General Election.
Does everyone in earth believe that? 150 would be worse than 1997 - certainly on net losses, but also just on number of seats. I mean, it could be that bad but plenty of people, me included would put the central estimate at about 200.
Not Everyone on earth, if not you Sir Norfolk, but Prof Curtice certainly suggested 150 seats recently, based on his calculation. Other Seat calculators suggest worse on current polling, even without tactical voting. Tories averaging under 27% in polls and LLG over 55 suggests 150 or worse,. You could explain how and why you disagree and know better than psephologists and pollsters, but the better question for you to answer though, is it only Sunak who gets the best result for Tories at the next election, or could they now get a better result under Barclay or Tugendhat?
Barclay or Tugendhat are despised by the people most motivated to put in letters of no confidence against Sunak, though. What is the path towards a coronation for either of them?
I do agree that 150-ish should be a reasonable Tory expectation, but I'm convinced that Sunak will do worse than that - he is almost uniquely unsuited to a bruising GE campaign.
I'm not a fan of the guy (obvs) but he's beginning to tug at my heart. He's in trouble and what is his thought process? "I'll do a presentation! On a flip-chart! That'll do it!" He's making the same mistakes I would. (He's also making ones I wouldn't, but that's not my point). He's not good, he's not bad, he's just in the wrong job.
Sunak is the Peter Principle in all its glorious technocolour brilliance.
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
Good argument; don't agree. It is in no future leader's interest to inherit the mantle now. All the decent candidates (supposing there were any) will wait it out. They then won't have the baggage of being a failed PM, losing an election etc. The Clark damp squib is sufficient evidence.
Someone like Barclay or Tugendhat will think, if they get a much better than expected result - anything over 200 seats as everyone on earth believes Sunak’s on for 150 or less - they stand a chance of staying on. That’s the type of Tory the Tories will turn to, to try and salvage as much as they can from an upcoming General Election.
Does everyone in earth believe that? 150 would be worse than 1997 - certainly on net losses, but also just on number of seats. I mean, it could be that bad but plenty of people, me included would put the central estimate at about 200.
Not Everyone on earth, if not you Sir Norfolk, but Prof Curtice certainly suggested 150 seats recently, based on his calculation. Other Seat calculators suggest worse on current polling, even without tactical voting. Tories averaging under 27% in polls and LLG over 55 suggests 150 or worse,. You could explain how and why you disagree and know better than psephologists and pollsters, but the better question for you to answer though, is it only Sunak who gets the best result for Tories at the next election, or could they now get a better result under Barclay or Tugendhat?
Barclay or Tugendhat are despised by the people most motivated to put in letters of no confidence against Sunak, though. What is the path towards a coronation for either of them?
I do agree that 150-ish should be a reasonable Tory expectation, but I'm convinced that Sunak will do worse than that - he is almost uniquely unsuited to a bruising GE campaign.
PB Conservative Loyalist HY believes Tom and Steve can be leader, and he must know something.
Sunak comes across as the sort of bully you'd expect to find at an elite private school.
Not intimidating or tough, but snide and looking down on those less fortunate, less wealthy or less clever than him. Others are there to be climbed up.
So when he sees the mother of a murdered girl, he sees an opportunity to get his culture war rubbish about trans people on the front page. Calculate a comment to get a rise out of Starmer (in a way Starmer would normally brush off) and your culture war crap is on the front page of the Daily Mail.
No appreciation at all for the crassness of this, and how rude it is to use the presence the mother of a murdered schoolgirl as a political prop in this way.
It was telling the genuine disbelief and anger in Starmer's response.
It's worse than that. The pathetic thing is he's not the bully or cool kids. He's the nerd who copies them, and tries to be their friend by bullying people lower down the food chain to impress them - but who everyone still thinks is an absolute dork. More of one, in fact, for being a weak try-hard who everyone has a reason to dislike.
Sunak comes across as the sort of bully you'd expect to find at an elite private school.
Not intimidating or tough, but snide and looking down on those less fortunate, less wealthy or less clever than him. Others are there to be climbed up.
So when he sees the mother of a murdered girl, he sees an opportunity to get his culture war rubbish about trans people on the front page. Calculate a comment to get a rise out of Starmer (in a way Starmer would normally brush off) and your culture war crap is on the front page of the Daily Mail.
No appreciation at all for the crassness of this, and how rude it is to use the presence the mother of a murdered schoolgirl as a political prop in this way.
It was telling the genuine disbelief and anger in Starmer's response.
You clearly haven’t been a bully or been bullied at an “elite private school” if you think Sunak is remotely an archetype bully. He is more likely someone who was bullied as he wasn’t wealthy then and would likely be looking up - from a wealth and physical perspective - and likely surrounded by many more intelligent than him and I can’t see him being built to excel in the sports that would have mattered.
Also do you really think he saw the mother there so decided to use her presence for some culture war attacks? Do you honestly think it was used as a political prop or are you maybe twisting something to match your political prejudices?
I'm not a fan of the guy (obvs) but he's beginning to tug at my heart. He's in trouble and what is his thought process? "I'll do a presentation! On a flip-chart! That'll do it!" He's making the same mistakes I would. (He's also making ones I wouldn't, but that's not my point). He's not good, he's not bad, he's just in the wrong job.
Sunak is the Peter Principle in all its glorious technocolour brilliance.
Yes and no. Intellectually he is way better than most recent pms. Sadly a modern politician also has to be a showman and or intensely streetwise in the wicked ways of the media and the fickleness of the public. Sunak doesnt have that.
When talking specifically about Brianna, didn't Sunak refer to her as a girl/woman? If so, he was right to do so but how does it sit with what he said previously?
But so did SKS, which makes Mr Sunak's (and Ms Braverman's) words even odder. To put it politely.
I’m just catching up on today’s news and do I read correctly that he made a “humorous” jibe about SKS and trans women while the mother of Brianna was in the gallery? Good god, what an idiot
seems to be contradictory views on social media as to whether or not she was there .
Does it actually matter? He was told she was there, and yet he went ahead with his transphobic attack.
SKS: Mr Speaker, this week the unwavering bravery of Brianna Ghey's mother, Esther, has touched us all. As a father, I cannot even imagine the pain that she's going through, and I'm glad that she's with us in the gallery here today. Sunak: hahaha, trans people.
Laughing at a struggling Iceland worker last week, laughing at a murdered girl's mother this week. You might be forgiven for thinking that there's a pattern there.
Yes it does matter if she was there. His comment was hardly laughing at Brianna Ghey’s mother either. Next you’ll claim he wanted to shit in her handbag
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Interesting but incorrect. Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives. A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
Kissing Putins arse does too.
Putin met Trump in Helsinki and nothing bad happened afterwards.
Putin met Biden in Geneva, and shortly afterwards he launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin is illegally occupying 22 times more territory than Israel is.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Interesting but incorrect. Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives. A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
Kissing Putins arse does too.
Putin met Trump in Helsinki and nothing bad happened afterwards.
Putin met Biden in Geneva, and shortly afterwards he launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin met The Dealmaker in Helsinki in a private session with no advisors present. Who knows what they discussed or decided between them or what assurances were given? I'm surprised this isn't mentioned whenever the history of WW3 is being written in real time.
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Interesting but incorrect. Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives. A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
Kissing Putins arse does too.
Putin met Trump in Helsinki and nothing bad happened afterwards.
Putin met Biden in Geneva, and shortly afterwards he launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin met The Dealmaker in Helsinki in a private session with no advisors present. Who knows what they discussed or decided between them or what assurances were given? I'm surprised this isn't mentioned whenever the history of WW3 is being written in real time.
Whatever they discussed obviously worked given that Putin was too afraid to act while Trump was in the White House.
@keiranpedley Chart of the day from @IpsosUK: Net satisfaction with Rishi Sunak's leadership amongst the public closely tracks Jeremy Corbyn's numbers heading into the 2019 General Election.
In fact, the position of the two main party leaders is basically now the reverse.
Betting Post. I can now see Sunak sacked by his party before the general election - and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen really quick now in the next week or two. The means the tories will use to be rid of him, is leak evidence they are sitting on, of some way he benefitted financially from decisions made by government he was in - government contracts placed he benefitted from.
And the Conservatives will install someone like Barclay or Tugendhat to salvage what they can from the coming General Election.
This will Abandon Sunak’s plan for May 2nd election, and instead hold on for a late Autumn referendum after conference. If Sunak leads Tories into general election, that can only be May 2nd - the least riskiest day this year for Tories to hold it before all the bad news for government starts to dominate the media, not least making utter mess of Sunak’s pledges to measure progress against meaning Sunak cannot go further than May.
There comes a tipping point, a moment of realisation, that such lunacy another swap out sounds, and yes it does come with a credibility hit - that this is now the least worse option than having Sunak not only as focal point of an election campaign, but you are asking the voters to re-elect Rishi Sunak as Primeminister for the next 5 years - that telling voters to elect Barclay or Tugendhat actually guarantees you more votes and MPs in the General Election, than you would get trying to sell Sunak continuing as Primeminister.
No. I think your predictions of a May election with Sunak are wrong. There are no signs of green shoots for the party, so it makes sense to put things off in the hope that something goes right.
I think your prediction that the Tories may get rid of Sunak in the next fortnight are wrong. No-one sane wants the position now (albeit said recognising that not all Tory MPs are sane). Much of the party rightly recognises that yet another new PM strains their credibility. Recent coup attempts went absolutely nowhere. If they are to get rid of him, it will take time.
If Sunak goes, I can’t see the Tories going for Tugendhat. The few who want a change think it will be successful if they go with a Trussite approach of low taxes and anti-woke. (The slight problem that Truss failed so spectacularly holds them back.)
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
Pretty sure I understand them. The victimy self pity of the right has become a huge thing (when they’re not pwng the libtards).
Victim Self Pity combined with aggressive attacks on others is one of the marks of totalitarian mindset.
See the headchoppers who go from “Yay, genocide the Yazidis” to “we are oppresssd” in consecutive sentences
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Interesting but incorrect. Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives. A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
Kissing Putins arse does too.
Putin met Trump in Helsinki and nothing bad happened afterwards.
Putin met Biden in Geneva, and shortly afterwards he launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin is illegally occupying 22 times more territory than Israel is.
Russia is 772 times bigger than Israel, so proportional to existing territory it is occupying 35 times less. Lies, damned lies and statistics......
Sunak comes across as the sort of bully you'd expect to find at an elite private school.
Not intimidating or tough, but snide and looking down on those less fortunate, less wealthy or less clever than him. Others are there to be climbed up.
So when he sees the mother of a murdered girl, he sees an opportunity to get his culture war rubbish about trans people on the front page. Calculate a comment to get a rise out of Starmer (in a way Starmer would normally brush off) and your culture war crap is on the front page of the Daily Mail.
No appreciation at all for the crassness of this, and how rude it is to use the presence the mother of a murdered schoolgirl as a political prop in this way.
It was telling the genuine disbelief and anger in Starmer's response.
You clearly haven’t been a bully or been bullied at an “elite private school” if you think Sunak is remotely an archetype bully. He is more likely someone who was bullied as he wasn’t wealthy then and would likely be looking up - from a wealth and physical perspective - and likely surrounded by many more intelligent than him and I can’t see him being built to excel in the sports that would have mattered.
Also do you really think he saw the mother there so decided to use her presence for some culture war attacks? Do you honestly think it was used as a political prop or are you maybe twisting something to match your political prejudices?
I think @MJW hit the nail on the head better than me above regarding his character type.
Starmer literally started PMQs referencing the mother being there, so he was definitely aware. And he made a snide trans dig that bore no relation to Starmer's question, not was it necessarily given his already long list of u-turns.
So yes, I think Occam's razor is Sunak deliberately made a trans joke knowing it'd be more likely to get headlines with the mother of a dead trans girl there.
The alternative is he's just an insensitive, thoughtless idiot who refuses to back down when he's made a mistake.
When talking specifically about Brianna, didn't Sunak refer to her as a girl/woman? If so, he was right to do so but how does it sit with what he said previously?
But so did SKS, which makes Mr Sunak's (and Ms Braverman's) words even odder. To put it politely.
I’m just catching up on today’s news and do I read correctly that he made a “humorous” jibe about SKS and trans women while the mother of Brianna was in the gallery? Good god, what an idiot
seems to be contradictory views on social media as to whether or not she was there .
Does it actually matter? He was told she was there, and yet he went ahead with his transphobic attack.
SKS: Mr Speaker, this week the unwavering bravery of Brianna Ghey's mother, Esther, has touched us all. As a father, I cannot even imagine the pain that she's going through, and I'm glad that she's with us in the gallery here today. Sunak: hahaha, trans people.
Laughing at a struggling Iceland worker last week, laughing at a murdered girl's mother this week. You might be forgiven for thinking that there's a pattern there.
Yes it does matter if she was there. His comment was hardly laughing at Brianna Ghey’s mother either. Next you’ll claim he wanted to shit in her handbag
Disagree. How did he know she wasn’t in the gallery when told she was, when he made the joke? He didn’t. Simples. He said it regardless is all what matters. She was there shortly after the joke, presumably waiting for a space to free up before allowed in, one in one out is that how it works?
Starmer is genuinely furious and disbelieving I think.
Reeves kind of has to calm him down as he sits back when the speaker intervenes to calm the loons on tory bench.
Yes, that struck me. He's either a much better actor than I give him credit for or the comment really, genuinely got to him. He seemed lost for words. Barely made a point before he sat down again
"Why have so many American leftists spent the last nine years dunking on Donald Trump’s supporters instead of seeking to understand them? With Trump likely to become the Republican nominee in this year’s US presidential election, it’s a question worth asking."
I love how Trump supporters, who are probably the last people on Earth who would seek to "understand" people they disagreed with, are so desperate to be understood themselves.
It's absurdly simple.
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
It is curious: the discussion is never "why have so many American rightists been driven crazy by crazy culture wars stuff that doesn't actually impact people's actual lives?"
Interesting but incorrect. Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives. A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
Kissing Putins arse does too.
Putin met Trump in Helsinki and nothing bad happened afterwards.
Putin met Biden in Geneva, and shortly afterwards he launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin is illegally occupying 22 times more territory than Israel is.
Russia is 772 times bigger than Israel, so proportional to existing territory it is occupying 35 times less. Lies, damned lies and statistics......
Robert Smith @BondHack · 2h Any PR manager worth their salt should know by now that it you stand next to a whiteboard, flip board or banner people are going to photoshop unflattering things on it
I'm told the Tories had been preparing their assault on Labour's £28 bn for ages - hoping to use it to pivot the conversation in their favour
Then Sunak messes up PMQs, and all the work gets lost
Some in No10 discussed an apology - but Kemi Badenoch's tweets doubling down removed that choice
Sunak ignored calls to apologise during PMQs itself, and his spokesperson doubled down at the 1pm press briefing. The opportunity to gracefully climb down had been lost well before Kemi's intervention.
Kemi then chose to attack Starmer rather than back Sunak - and I'm sure Sunak's camp are feeling sore about that. But it's a bit rich for them to blame her for wrecking their plans when the actual blame lies so squarely with him.
Our deputy political editor @SamCoatesSky says today has been a "disaster" for the Conservative Party, adding that Rishi Sunak "really messed it up" after making a trans jibe during PMQs.
Starmer is genuinely furious and disbelieving I think.
Reeves kind of has to calm him down as he sits back when the speaker intervenes to calm the loons on tory bench.
Yes, that struck me. He's either a much better actor than I give him credit for or the comment really, genuinely got to him. He seemed lost for words. Barely made a point before he sat down again
Sunak: "We can score points here. Yay!! I get to look cool."
PR and pol comms industry: "Read the fucking room."
Comments
Two posters had recently, separately, visited "Ground Zero" of the Twin Towers.
One said, IIRC, it was "an almost spiritual experience".
The other said it was just a building site.
And all hell broke loose!
Speaking to Sky News, Peter Spooner said Mr Sunak's remarks during PMQs, which the schoolgirl's mother Esther attended, were "degrading" and "absolutely dehumanising".
He said: "As the prime minister for our country to come out with degrading comments like he did, regardless of them being in relation to discussions in parliament, they are absolutely dehumanising.
"Identities of people should not be used in that manner, and I personally feel shocked by his comments and feel he should apologise for his remarks."
https://news.sky.com/story/brianna-gheys-father-demands-apology-from-pm-after-trans-jibe-in-commons-13066231
The victimy self pity of the right has become a huge thing (when they’re not pwng the libtards).
Note that even the house looks sad, though.
I once had a massive bust-up with Snowflake over Gordon Brown's proposals for amending the rules on Surplus Advance Corporation Tax.
And you think Scottish sub-samples are trivial?
They just hate the Libtards, and anyone who sticks it to them is OK, no matter what.
I would like to see the back of the Conservative Government. May wins, within a fortnight Suella defenestrates her in a putsch.
He has just guaranteed a bunch of front pages which define him as "the crusader against all this trans nonsense". Look at the Mail Online headline right now:
"Labour is accused of 'weaponising' death of Brianna Ghey after attacking Rishi Sunak's PMQs jibe about Keir Starmer's trouble 'defining a woman' - while murdered trans teen's mother was in the Commons"
For Sunak's target electorate, the takeaway from that headline is "Rishi Sunak thinks that only biological women are real women, and Keir Starmer doesn't". This will play very well with Colonel Sir Bufton-Tufton and White Van Man from Barnsley (apologies for really gratuitous stereotyping here), both of whom are toying with voting Reform right now.
It's utterly horrible and will just engender more division. But it serves Sunak's purposes very well. Isaac Levido right now is cracking open a Fosters (apologies for etc. etc.) and thinking "well, that went exactly how I planned it".
SKS: Mr Speaker, this week the unwavering bravery of Brianna Ghey's mother, Esther, has touched us all. As a father, I cannot even imagine the pain that she's going through, and I'm glad that she's with us in the gallery here today.
Sunak: hahaha, trans people.
Laughing at a struggling Iceland worker last week, laughing at a murdered girl's mother this week. You might be forgiven for thinking that there's a pattern there.
Though keep this in mind.
OK, here we go.
"Did Julian Adorney speak to a single leftist whilst writing the article?"
This is in contradistinction to reading stuff on the internet, or reading books. Just speak to a single individual.
The reason why I ask is because I think he's speculating on the reasons and citing works to say that his speculations are possible. Which is at best is plausible speculation, instead of proof, or even an argument backed up by facts.
Even RP - who is not of that ilk - was mildly surprised to learn from me that there had been such a thing as Scottish administrative devolution about a century and a quarter ago.
Lots of questions, headline figures
This poll is the only the second time Labour has led in our Scottish Westminster Voting Intention tracker poll. The Scottish National Party, meanwhile, last held a lead over Labour in our Westminster Voting Intention poll in early October.
For context, the SNP came first in Scotland in the 2019 General Election, taking 45% of the vote and 48 seats, with the Conservatives in second, winning 25% of the vote and six seats. Labour came third at 19% and won only a single Scottish seat.
Altogether the results (with changes from 9-11 January in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 34% (-1)
Scottish National Party 33% (-2)
Conservative 18% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (+2)
Green 2% (–)
Alba Party 1% (NEW)
Other 0% (-1)
and
Our latest Scottish independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 4%, the joint-largest lead for ‘no’ since late October.
47% (–) of Scottish respondents now say they would vote ‘no’ and 43% (-3) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should be an independent country. 10% (+3) don’t know how they would vote.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-3-4-february-2024/
Sure a group worked together on Sunak’s script, but still I think it was a bungle more than a plan, a failure to read a room bungle, that you should not expect from political leaders despite what script you’ve handed them.
I think Levido is more sharp than political opponents give him credit, and has a migraine tonight wondering what he’s taken on here. No not just his employer being tone deaf and needs to be locked in a fridge from here till election day, it’s the party around him doesn’t believe in the same thing anymore. Spin doctors can’t herd cats.
Payable only by cheque or cash.
Rishi Sunak will tonight release a video in which he sets out the "context we found ourselves in" after becoming PM in 2022.
Can anyone else spot the one piece of economic "context" he's left off his chart?
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1755293353531318392
House? Did you not think post office envelope at first?
Trump and his supporters are a cancer on the USA .
Is it too soon to hail the Sunak flipchart as the greatest gift to political meme makers since the Edstone
The UK Gov't holds negative net approval ratings on EVERY policy issue listed.
UK Government Policy Approval Ratings in Scotland (3-4 February):
Scottish Independence -16%
Education -26%
Environment -29%
Housing -43%
Economy -45%
NHS -53%
I am refusing to believe the whiteboard thing is real. It can’t be. No self-respecting comms team would allow that to happen. They just wouldn’t. Must be an elaborate practical joke
Affirmative action hiring based on race has a real impact on peoples lives.
A policy of open door immigration has a real impact on peoples lives.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott tells me she doesn’t think Rishi Sunak did anything wrong at PMQs today
Trump is a physically imposing man, rather intimidating, very much the toxic male but hard to ignore or dismiss. He says revoltingly bigoted things frequently, but forces the listener to choose which side they’re on. There’s an evolutionary instinct at play in the viewer I think. If you oppose the alpha you better consider the risks.
Sunak has none of that. He seems an agreeably friendly, gentle soul and wholly unthreatening. So when he says something bigoted the reaction isn’t fight or flight. The amygdala isn’t troubled. It’s “what a c**t”.
I remember the mean girls at school calling someone a “pathetic little racist”. They chose one of the small weedy boys. Plenty of first-15 boys were racist too but they fancied them.
This house looks like it’s just considered the prospect of five more years of the Tories
Unless the country really is a seething mass of transphobes I tend to the latter.
Doubling down seems to have become a Conservative article of faith since Cummings. It’s what did for Boris repeatedly, with Patterson and Pincher, the Savile nonsense and the refusal to come clean over parties. They keep doing it against all logic.
Not intimidating or tough, but snide and looking down on those less fortunate, less wealthy or less clever than him. Others are there to be climbed up.
So when he sees the mother of a murdered girl, he sees an opportunity to get his culture war rubbish about trans people on the front page. Calculate a comment to get a rise out of Starmer (in a way Starmer would normally brush off) and your culture war crap is on the front page of the Daily Mail.
No appreciation at all for the crassness of this, and how rude it is to use the presence the mother of a murdered schoolgirl as a political prop in this way.
It was telling the genuine disbelief and anger in Starmer's response.
Several books on this.
Key one is "White Working Class: Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America" by Joan Williams.
Mark Lilla has also written good and clear stuff on where the Dems are going wrong.
Biden papered over this a little just because he was 'joe' and clearly from that world. But I am fearful that trick wont work this time.
And bullying, picking on the outsider, is fun and satisfying. And it's really tempting to keep upping the ante.
The art is staying just the right side of the line- being unpleasant, but with just enough deniability. (It helps, as @TimS has said, to have the charisma to dodge questioning on it.)
The risk is always that you go too far. In shock jockery or polemic column writing, you get fired. In a person-to-person situation, something horrible happens. But by then, it's too late.
The trouble for Conservative ministers is that they have to defend the boss- it's the first line of their job description. Which means that some of the mud sticks to them as well.
Putin met Biden in Geneva, and shortly afterwards he launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Way to go Sunak. You are class guy.
Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
I'm told the Tories had been preparing their assault on Labour's £28 bn for ages - hoping to use it to pivot the conversation in their favour
Then Sunak messes up PMQs, and all the work gets lost
Some in No10 discussed an apology - but Kemi Badenoch's tweets doubling down removed that choice
Starmer should not shy away from trying to lift the UK out of its bad equilibrium
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/06/labour-proclaim-its-28bn-green-plan-from-rooftops/
"What Rachel Reeves meant of course is that higher interest costs and lower fiscal “headroom” in the UK have made it harder to stick to the £28bn strategy, but it is curious that a party running 22 points ahead in the polls lacks the confidence to stick to its signature policy.
It is overly haunted by the Kinnock debacle of the early 1990s"
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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39m
Given the storm swirling around Rishi Sunak after PMQs, I just don’t understand why Labour would choose this moment to validate his critique of Starmer flip-flopping all over the place.
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
EXCL: Keir Starmer will announce *tomorrow* that he's scaling back Labour’s flagship £28bn green investment plan following weeks of uncertainty.
The one he ls stuffing giveaways in I guess.
I do agree that 150-ish should be a reasonable Tory expectation, but I'm convinced that Sunak will do worse than that - he is almost uniquely unsuited to a bruising GE campaign.
Also do you really think he saw the mother there so decided to use her presence for some culture war attacks? Do you honestly think it was used as a political prop or are you maybe twisting something to match your political prejudices?
He’s referencing Rep. Al Green, who showed up in a wheelchair from surgery.
https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1755282975187452257
Starmer is genuinely furious and disbelieving I think.
Reeves kind of has to calm him down as he sits back when the speaker intervenes to calm the loons on tory bench.
Chart of the day from @IpsosUK: Net satisfaction with Rishi Sunak's leadership amongst the public closely tracks Jeremy Corbyn's numbers heading into the 2019 General Election.
In fact, the position of the two main party leaders is basically now the reverse.
Outrageous behaviour.
And when he had the fine example of Sir Alfred Broughton to follow as well.
I think your prediction that the Tories may get rid of Sunak in the next fortnight are wrong. No-one sane wants the position now (albeit said recognising that not all Tory MPs are sane). Much of the party rightly recognises that yet another new PM strains their credibility. Recent coup attempts went absolutely nowhere. If they are to get rid of him, it will take time.
If Sunak goes, I can’t see the Tories going for Tugendhat. The few who want a change think it will be successful if they go with a Trussite approach of low taxes and anti-woke. (The slight problem that Truss failed so spectacularly holds them back.)
https://x.com/johnshuttlewrth/status/1755315326701420919?s=61
See the headchoppers who go from “Yay, genocide the Yazidis” to “we are oppresssd” in consecutive sentences
The Fascist version needs little introduction.
Or the Bolsheviks
Same shit, different assholes.
Starmer literally started PMQs referencing the mother being there, so he was definitely aware. And he made a snide trans dig that bore no relation to Starmer's question, not was it necessarily given his already long list of u-turns.
So yes, I think Occam's razor is Sunak deliberately made a trans joke knowing it'd be more likely to get headlines with the mother of a dead trans girl there.
The alternative is he's just an insensitive, thoughtless idiot who refuses to back down when he's made a mistake.
Neither are suitable character traits to be PM.
@BondHack
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2h
Any PR manager worth their salt should know by now that it you stand next to a whiteboard, flip board or banner people are going to photoshop unflattering things on it
Kemi then chose to attack Starmer rather than back Sunak - and I'm sure Sunak's camp are feeling sore about that. But it's a bit rich for them to blame her for wrecking their plans when the actual blame lies so squarely with him.
'The mood is really grim around the PM tonight'.
Our deputy political editor @SamCoatesSky says today has been a "disaster" for the Conservative Party, adding that Rishi Sunak "really messed it up" after making a trans jibe during PMQs.
PR and pol comms industry: "Read the fucking room."