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Trump could be in political trouble if found guilty – politicalbetting.com

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    Government found to be acting irrationally by the high court!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68156420
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    ...

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's the insane elements of the PB right, shilling for Trump, that boggles my mind.
    You can make a decent case for why GenericRepublican can, even ought to, win. Even, at a stretch, for why Trump is preferable to GenericDemocrat, let alone GeriatricDemocrat.

    What's much harder to explain is why, of the gallery of possible Republicans, all of them pretty right wing, it has to be Trump.

    That does need explaining, and I don't think the explanation would be a nice one.
    It is largely down to him not playing by the rules and conventions, which everyone else thought were sacrosanct.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653
    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,195
    edited January 31

    Either today or tomorrow we should get the result from the New York court on "disgorgement" for the series of fraudulent activities that the Trump organisation has already been found guilty of. Trump is going to be out of pocket to the tune of $300m - $500m. He'll say, as with the $83m defamation award "I will appeal". However, that requires a bond for the full amount to be put up. Maybe he has a friendly billionaire prepared to put that amount at risk (as the awards will very likely be upheld at appeal). And maybe he don't.

    At the kindest, the Trump organisation was riddled with incompetence that should politically debar somebody from holding the office of America's CEO.

    (There's also a $50m "loan" that has been discovered - a "loan" that risks further criminal charges being laid. It was discovered by the person put in charge of the Trump business empire from making transfers that could frustrate the recovery of the disgorgement payments. When he is on the media railing against that person making work to justify her charges, remember the appointment of that person was approved by Trump.)

    There seems to have been a payment of $48m to him, with no recorded loan in the books of the Trump organisation.

    Trump has filed tax returns with the federal government listing the $48m as a debt to the organisation, I think - so he hasn't payed tax on it as income.
    Which if the reported facts are true is pretty likely to be construed as tax evasion.

    Of course the woman who says she'll vote for him even if he's dead probably doesn't think he should have to pay tax at all.
  • Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,395

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    "Now you're talking semantics. What if I told you insane was working fifty hours a week in some office for fifty years... at the end of which they tell you to piss off? Ending up in some retirement village... hoping to die before suffering the indignity of trying to make it to the toilet on time. Wouldn't you consider that to be insane?"
    I didn't even have to look it up... ☹️
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,395

    Government found to be acting irrationally by the high court!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68156420

    Im a bit angry at this, and not as much as I should be. The Minister is the democratic representative answerable to the PM for his rank, Parliament for his actions, and his constituents for his membership. He's allowed to be capricious and irrational. Shouldn't the judge have been told to do one?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    edited January 31
    Yes Trump's support falls to 37% in key swing states if he is convicted of a criminal offence. So what the verdicts are in his criminal cases could well decide the presidential election result.

    Indeed if he was convicted and ended up with just 37% that would be even worse than the 38.5% Goldwater got in 1964 and the 37.5% Bush 41 got in 1992. It would be the worst voteshare in the popular vote for the Republican candidate in the last 100 years and the 36.5% Landon got in 1936
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party has allowed the Democrats to really go off piste as well though. The size of the structural deficit and associated currency debasement, the unwillingness to responsibly enforce the global security order, the clear mental and physical fragility of their commander in chief, and the concerning anti free speech / pro censorship creep of American society...

    If the Republican Party were currently normal, then this iteration of the Democrat Party would be debarred from executive office instead.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653
    Nigelb said:

    Either today or tomorrow we should get the result from the New York court on "disgorgement" for the series of fraudulent activities that the Trump organisation has already been found guilty of. Trump is going to be out of pocket to the tune of $300m - $500m. He'll say, as with the $83m defamation award "I will appeal". However, that requires a bond for the full amount to be put up. Maybe he has a friendly billionaire prepared to put that amount at risk (as the awards will very likely be upheld at appeal). And maybe he don't.

    At the kindest, the Trump organisation was riddled with incompetence that should politically debar somebody from holding the office of America's CEO.

    (There's also a $50m "loan" that has been discovered - a "loan" that risks further criminal charges being laid. It was discovered by the person put in charge of the Trump business empire from making transfers that could frustrate the recovery of the disgorgement payments. When he is on the media railing against that person making work to justify her charges, remember the appointment of that person was approved by Trump.)

    There seems to have been a payment of $48m to him, with no recorded loan in the books of the Trump organisation.

    Trump has filed tax returns with the federal government listing the $48m as a debt to the organisation, I think - so he hasn't payed tax on it as income.
    Which if the reported facts are true is pretty likely to be construed as tax evasion.

    Of course the woman who says she'll vote for him even if he's dead probably doesn't think he should have to pay tax at all.
    There's that "well he's just like us but smarter, we'd all dodge tax if we could" sentiment of course.

    Trump the idol providing his fans with vicarious thrills and satisfaction. Living large for them. Kind of like Keith Richards.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Nigelb said:

    Either today or tomorrow we should get the result from the New York court on "disgorgement" for the series of fraudulent activities that the Trump organisation has already been found guilty of. Trump is going to be out of pocket to the tune of $300m - $500m. He'll say, as with the $83m defamation award "I will appeal". However, that requires a bond for the full amount to be put up. Maybe he has a friendly billionaire prepared to put that amount at risk (as the awards will very likely be upheld at appeal). And maybe he don't.

    At the kindest, the Trump organisation was riddled with incompetence that should politically debar somebody from holding the office of America's CEO.

    (There's also a $50m "loan" that has been discovered - a "loan" that risks further criminal charges being laid. It was discovered by the person put in charge of the Trump business empire from making transfers that could frustrate the recovery of the disgorgement payments. When he is on the media railing against that person making work to justify her charges, remember the appointment of that person was approved by Trump.)

    There seems to have been a payment of $48m to him, with no recorded loan in the books of the Trump organisation.

    Trump has filed tax returns with the federal government listing the $48m as a debt to the organisation, I think - so he hasn't payed tax on it as income.
    Which if the reported facts are true is pretty likely to be construed as tax evasion.

    Of course the woman who says she'll vote for him even if he's dead probably doesn't think he should have to pay tax at all.
    As an aside, loaning money to oneself so as to avoid paying income tax is one the most common forms of tax evasion. And if HMRC or the IRS finds you doing it, then you will be in big do do.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    I hadn't quite appreciated the implications of the timeline of the missing WhatsApp messages until today. I had been under the impression that, after promising to supply the WhatsApp messages to the Covid Inquiry, Sturgeon then deleted them. In fact, she now is on record as admitting to having deleted those WhatsApp messages herself, and doing so before she promised to supply them to the Inquiry.

    So she's exposed as a downright liar. It doesn't matter what pathetic excuse she gives for deleting them, she's a liar regardless.
  • kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah yes, I remember Farmer Palmer slicing his bacon straight from a live piglet into the frying pan.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    As an aside, it's worth noting that *all* the Presidential polls are very unusual. Trump plus Biden is in the low 80s in pretty much every survey.

    By contrast, they were ten points higher last time around.

    If you want a group that might be swayed by a guilty verdict, that's your group: the 17 or 18% of voters who currently aren't expressing a preference, or who say "don't know".
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    viewcode said:

    Government found to be acting irrationally by the high court!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68156420

    Im a bit angry at this, and not as much as I should be. The Minister is the democratic representative answerable to the PM for his rank, Parliament for his actions, and his constituents for his membership. He's allowed to be capricious and irrational. Shouldn't the judge have been told to do one?
    Probably. I wonder if the judges would have found the same way if it was care workers rather than lawyers.

    On rationality aiui (well google tells me tbh) the bar is:

    "A decision can be overturned on the ground of irrationality if it is so unreasonable that no reasonable person, acting reasonably, could have made it. This is a very high bar to get over, and it is rare for the courts to grant judicial review on this basis."

    I don't think this meets that threshold. If Raab had however said they should be paid 500 swiss francs, 20 bottles of merlot and some rib eyes, then that should be thrown out however he was elected.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653
    moonshine said:

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party has allowed the Democrats to really go off piste as well though. The size of the structural deficit and associated currency debasement, the unwillingness to responsibly enforce the global security order, the clear mental and physical fragility of their commander in chief, and the concerning anti free speech / pro censorship creep of American society...

    If the Republican Party were currently normal, then this iteration of the Democrat Party would be debarred from executive office instead.
    Trump got in first and hard with trashing the public finances, preferring dictators to democratic western allies, and being completely and obviously doolally.

    The Dems can't compete on this and they haven't really tried.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party has allowed the Democrats to really go off piste as well though. The size of the structural deficit and associated currency debasement, the unwillingness to responsibly enforce the global security order, the clear mental and physical fragility of their commander in chief, and the concerning anti free speech / pro censorship creep of American society...

    If the Republican Party were currently normal, then this iteration of the Democrat Party would be debarred from executive office instead.
    Trump got in first and hard with trashing the public finances, preferring dictators to democratic western allies, and being completely and obviously doolally.

    The Dems can't compete on this and they haven't really tried.
    I mentioned to am American Democrat colleague of mine recently, oh for the days of a centrist Republican like John McCain. His answer was not polite. “That f-wit is the one who started all this by thinking he was being clever choosing that dumb Alaskan as his VP pick!”
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    Plenty.

    TIGHT-ARSED blokes: Only date girls called Natalie, Carol, Holly or Eve. Chances are their birthday is around Christmas and you won't have to shell out for a present until then, by which time they will have chucked you.

    AMERICANS: Save valuable time by not pending "God bless America" to your every sentence.

    FEMALE shop assistants: When a garage mechanic comes to your till, add on a selection of random items they didn't know they needed and charge them £50 labour costs for the transaction.
    GAMBLERS: For a new gambling opportunity, try sending £50 to yourself by Royal Mail.

    EMPLOYERS: Avoid hiring unlucky people by immediately tossing half the CVs into the bin.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653
    edited January 31
    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party has allowed the Democrats to really go off piste as well though. The size of the structural deficit and associated currency debasement, the unwillingness to responsibly enforce the global security order, the clear mental and physical fragility of their commander in chief, and the concerning anti free speech / pro censorship creep of American society...

    If the Republican Party were currently normal, then this iteration of the Democrat Party would be debarred from executive office instead.
    Trump got in first and hard with trashing the public finances, preferring dictators to democratic western allies, and being completely and obviously doolally.

    The Dems can't compete on this and they haven't really tried.
    I mentioned to am American Democrat colleague of mine recently, oh for the days of a centrist Republican like John McCain. His answer was not polite. “That f-wit is the one who started all this by thinking he was being clever choosing that dumb Alaskan as his VP pick!”
    That was a straw in the wind, looking back, wasn't it. Palin on the GOP ticket.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edited January 31

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I regret to inform you that one of the DoH stars has been on a 'journey'. Though perhaps he was always a good ol boy of the old fashioned sort.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/john-schneider-dukes-of-hazzard-biden-tweet
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,342
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    Google for Viz Top Tips. That's their expression for life hacks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's worth noting that *all* the Presidential polls are very unusual. Trump plus Biden is in the low 80s in pretty much every survey.

    By contrast, they were ten points higher last time around.

    If you want a group that might be swayed by a guilty verdict, that's your group: the 17 or 18% of voters who currently aren't expressing a preference, or who say "don't know".

    I thought Trump was still in the high 70s?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730

    My little children's story is being pitched as a film to Apple and Netflix in LA today.

    Finger's crossed!

    With what? :wink:

    Good luck :smile:
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    You’ve never read Viz Top Tips?!????

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/indispensible-life-tips-from-the-readers-of-viz
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    Plenty.

    TIGHT-ARSED blokes: Only date girls called Natalie, Carol, Holly or Eve. Chances are their birthday is around Christmas and you won't have to shell out for a present until then, by which time they will have chucked you.

    AMERICANS: Save valuable time by not pending "God bless America" to your every sentence.

    FEMALE shop assistants: When a garage mechanic comes to your till, add on a selection of random items they didn't know they needed and charge them £50 labour costs for the transaction.
    Lol very good! My sober serious ones can't compete with those.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's worth noting that *all* the Presidential polls are very unusual. Trump plus Biden is in the low 80s in pretty much every survey.

    By contrast, they were ten points higher last time around.

    If you want a group that might be swayed by a guilty verdict, that's your group: the 17 or 18% of voters who currently aren't expressing a preference, or who say "don't know".

    I thought Trump was still in the high 70s?
    After acing his last cognitive test they have moved him up to the 80s.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's worth noting that *all* the Presidential polls are very unusual. Trump plus Biden is in the low 80s in pretty much every survey.

    By contrast, they were ten points higher last time around.

    If you want a group that might be swayed by a guilty verdict, that's your group: the 17 or 18% of voters who currently aren't expressing a preference, or who say "don't know".

    I thought Trump was still in the high 70s?
    After acing his last cognitive test they have moved him up to the 80s.
    Surely that would push him into his Sixties?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    I used to love the A-Team as a kid. A weird memory association with it: I was watching a repeat in the common room back in 1990, when our housemaster came in to ask a couple of the boys to come to his office. The army had just called to say that their dads had been sent to Kuwait, and the housemaster had to inform them of it.

    Seemed a weird way of doing it; I would have thought other mothers or other relatives should have done it.

    I'll always associate the A-Team with that, for some odd reason.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's worth noting that *all* the Presidential polls are very unusual. Trump plus Biden is in the low 80s in pretty much every survey.

    By contrast, they were ten points higher last time around.

    If you want a group that might be swayed by a guilty verdict, that's your group: the 17 or 18% of voters who currently aren't expressing a preference, or who say "don't know".

    I thought Trump was still in the high 70s?
    After acing his last cognitive test they have moved him up to the 80s.
    Surely that would push him into his Sixties?
    They are using the American adjusted IQ scales.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    GAMBLERS: For a new gambling opportunity, try sending £50 to yourself by Royal Mail.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    I used to love the A-Team as a kid. A weird memory association with it: I was watching a repeat in the common room back in 1990, when our housemaster came in to ask a couple of the boys to come to his office. The army had just called to say that their dads had been sent to Kuwait, and the housemaster had to inform them of it.

    Seemed a weird way of doing it; I would have thought other mothers or other relatives should have done it.

    I'll always associate the A-Team with that, for some odd reason.
    I used to watch it as a student, regular Saturday evening entertainment before going down the pub. Great fun (at the time)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730
    DougSeal said:

    GAMBLERS: For a new gambling opportunity, try sending £50 to yourself by Royal Mail.

    NON-GAMBLERS - for a life of danger and excitement where the outcome will remain uncertain until the bitter end, try getting the correct bill out of British Gas.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Either today or tomorrow we should get the result from the New York court on "disgorgement" for the series of fraudulent activities that the Trump organisation has already been found guilty of. Trump is going to be out of pocket to the tune of $300m - $500m. He'll say, as with the $83m defamation award "I will appeal". However, that requires a bond for the full amount to be put up. Maybe he has a friendly billionaire prepared to put that amount at risk (as the awards will very likely be upheld at appeal). And maybe he don't.

    At the kindest, the Trump organisation was riddled with incompetence that should politically debar somebody from holding the office of America's CEO.

    (There's also a $50m "loan" that has been discovered - a "loan" that risks further criminal charges being laid. It was discovered by the person put in charge of the Trump business empire from making transfers that could frustrate the recovery of the disgorgement payments. When he is on the media railing against that person making work to justify her charges, remember the appointment of that person was approved by Trump.)

    There is also one of the latest faceplants of Mr Chump's Lawyer Alina Habbadabbadoo ("I want to be like yoo-who-whooo") who launched an attack on the Judge in the NY Defamation Case alleging that an inappropriate mentoring relationship between the Judge and E Jean Carroll's lawyer meant the Judge was compromised and the whole thing should be thrown out, and that she had become aware of it after an article appeared in the NY Post.

    Said mentoring relationship being that 30 years ago the Judge had been a partner at a 1000-strong firm, whilst the Lawyer had been a Junior there for a couple of years.

    The Lawyer slapped it down as BS.

    And the article contains content explaining what Habbadabbadoo planned to do, so she knew about it.

    Which means that La "I would rather be pretty than smart; I can fake being smart" Trumpette would seem to have deceived the Court. Again. Having already been sanctioned multiple times.

    The Judge can withdraw her right to practise in NY.

    Oooops. Or 5-dimensional chess?

    As an aside, that is typical Trump behaviour that eats away at our democracy.

    Make a baseless allegation: one completely unsupported by any facts. And sure, it gets slapped down. But the right people (Trump's base) hear the original allegation, not the fact that it was - in essence - a lie.

    You cannot unring a bell.

    Millions of people will now believe that the whole process was a sham, involving collusion between a prosectutor and her old mentor. Even though there is not a shred of truth in it.
    And that's one reason I disbelieve polls saying people will change their tune if he is convicted. He has primed the majority of his supporters to believe all these cases are rigged, and I'm supposed to believe significant numbers will accept the outcomes?

    A smaller number than claim they will might do that, and hopefull that will be enough.

    If he is even convicted of course - only a couple of cases will be dealt with before the election, and they are not the simplest cases, so acquittal cannot be ruled out.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,040

    I've reported this house for their flagrant breach of the Trade Descriptions Act

    Perhaps it’s the dogs name ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730
    Taz said:

    I've reported this house for their flagrant breach of the Trade Descriptions Act

    Perhaps it’s the dogs name ?
    Nah, just a cocker up.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,865

    Government found to be acting irrationally by the high court!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68156420

    Judgement here.

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Law-Society-v-Lord-Chancellor-judgment-Final.pdf

    Lawyers won't be slow to note that the Law Society instructed Bindmans, who have acted over the years for massive human rights/injustice cases, and are brilliant. In turn they went right to the top for representation in court. No greater injustice can be imagined that that of underpaying lawyers and the top team turned out.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 935
    Latest polling by Emerson shows a distinctive reduction in Trump's lead, down as low as 2%.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,040

    My little children's story is being pitched as a film to Apple and Netflix in LA today.

    Finger's crossed!


    Break a leg, as they say in that industry. 👍
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    It is worth having a look at Tom Macdonalds videos, a rapper who I think is a Trump supporter. He certainly isn't 'insane'.

    It is laughable the way that people keep coming up with the idea that Trump voters are thick. The highest levels of ignorance and stupidity in my experience can be found on the 'woke left'.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kGpohEpuTE
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I regret to inform you that one of the DoH stars has been on a 'journey'. Though perhaps he was always a good ol boy of the old fashioned sort.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/john-schneider-dukes-of-hazzard-biden-tweet
    How sad, I always had the Dukes of Hazzard stars down as members of the woke liberal elite.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    viewcode said:

    Government found to be acting irrationally by the high court!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68156420

    Im a bit angry at this, and not as much as I should be. The Minister is the democratic representative answerable to the PM for his rank, Parliament for his actions, and his constituents for his membership. He's allowed to be capricious and irrational. Shouldn't the judge have been told to do one?
    The Supreme Court has in different circumstances commented on giving due weight to the decisions of Ministers, but I don't think that would cover outright irrationality. The issue would presumably be what is the legal test of irrationality and whether that was met.

    Given how strong the definition of legal unreasonableness is, I would assume the bar would have to be very high.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,342

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    I used to love the A-Team as a kid. A weird memory association with it: I was watching a repeat in the common room back in 1990, when our housemaster came in to ask a couple of the boys to come to his office. The army had just called to say that their dads had been sent to Kuwait, and the housemaster had to inform them of it.

    Seemed a weird way of doing it; I would have thought other mothers or other relatives should have done it.

    I'll always associate the A-Team with that, for some odd reason.
    Legally in statu parentis, presumably, so had to deal with it themselves?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I regret to inform you that one of the DoH stars has been on a 'journey'. Though perhaps he was always a good ol boy of the old fashioned sort.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/john-schneider-dukes-of-hazzard-biden-tweet
    How sad, I always had the Dukes of Hazzard stars down as members of the woke liberal elite.
    DoH was my Grandfather’s favourite show in the final years of his life. He was a Yorkshire Tory. And not of the One Nation variety.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653
    theakes said:

    Latest polling by Emerson shows a distinctive reduction in Trump's lead, down as low as 2%.

    Yes I think we've seen Peak Trump.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,040
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    I've reported this house for their flagrant breach of the Trade Descriptions Act

    Perhaps it’s the dogs name ?
    Nah, just a cocker up.
    Ba
    Dum
    Tish
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,395
    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    You’ve never read Viz Top Tips?!????

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/indispensible-life-tips-from-the-readers-of-viz
    The world is changing. The Old Knowledge passes. One day I will say "I'll get me coat" and no-one will understand... ☹️
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,949
    edited January 31
    If everyone on PB chips in with about £100 each, we might just be able to help George Freeman out with his mortgage problems.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/29/minister-quit-because-he-could-not-afford-rising-mortgage-costs-on-120000-salary
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831
    edited January 31

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Some Trump supporting Republicans probably have bad motives, as do some Biden-supporting Democrats. The majority are acting rationally given their hinterland and perception of the realities involved, which is different to yours. The fact that you prefer to categorise millions of people as intellectually deficient to the point of insanity because they don't share your omniscient view from Warrington is feeble-minded by any objective measure.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,040

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I regret to inform you that one of the DoH stars has been on a 'journey'. Though perhaps he was always a good ol boy of the old fashioned sort.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/john-schneider-dukes-of-hazzard-biden-tweet
    How sad, I always had the Dukes of Hazzard stars down as members of the woke liberal elite.
    Interesting. Ne-Yo only came third in the masked singer in the U.K.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    You’ve never read Viz Top Tips?!????

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/indispensible-life-tips-from-the-readers-of-viz
    The world is changing. The Old Knowledge passes. One day I will say "I'll get me coat" and no-one will understand... ☹️
    Global warming will have to get a shift on for that to happen.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653
    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    You’ve never read Viz Top Tips?!????

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/indispensible-life-tips-from-the-readers-of-viz
    No I hadn't. V funny. I can be a bit unplugged and ivory tower sometimes.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    Taz said:

    I've reported this house for their flagrant breach of the Trade Descriptions Act

    Perhaps it’s the dogs name ?
    Like the guy in Red Dwarf?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    edited January 31

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    Don't forget CHiPs!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5-bD372v5s&t=1s
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    By the way if you're on TwiX the Viz account is worth following. My favourites are the old fashioned ads. Like the one for wasp world, just off the A30.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    ...

    So apparently the big rise in my mortgage is Sunak's plan working.

    I get the Tory narrative about "Labour tax rises". But the Tories have just put through a massive tax rise. So what is he thinking? As Starmer put it, are people to believe Starmer's boasts or their own bank accounts?

    What caused the rise in mortgage rates? External factors in the main. Did you believe they would be low forever?
    Like this externality? Key paragraph is about two thirds down.

    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/truss-kwarteng-mini-budget-one-year#:~:text=The Mini-Budget was delivered on 23 September 2022.,rate of 2.5 per cent.
    But the bit underneath is even more telling:
    “The assumption was that the unfunded tax cuts in the Mini-Budget were just the start and that more was to come.  Adding that to the disregard for some of the key institutions in the UK system of government – HM Treasury, the OBR and the Bank of England – which had been shown by the Prime Minister and Chancellor in the weeks leading up to the Mini-Budget, financial markets were left ‘spooked’.  This meant an increase in the risk premia they applied to UK gilts and, so, a dramatic rise in gilt yields, with the 10-year spot rate, for instance, rising by a little over one percentage point between 21 September and 27 September, accompanied by a fall in sterling to its lowest value against the dollar since 1985.  As is well known, the rise in gilt yields led to a crisis for pension funds that had invested in LDIs and so the Bank of England intervened in the bond markets on 28 September.  This intervention successfully brought bond rates back down.  Once the Prime Minister and Chancellor were replaced by Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, respectively, and the main proposals in the Mini-Budget reversed, risk premia fell back to roughly where they were before the Mini Budget had happened.”

    What’s so interesting about that paragraph? It’s myth. It’s a complete fake history.

    “This meant an increase in the risk premia they applied to UK gilts and, so, a dramatic rise in gilt yields, with the 10-year spot rate, for instance, rising by a little over one percentage point between 21 September and 27 September”.
    The “community notice” is this was already on the up long before Johnson was forced out, and not just in UK but across Europe, and has peaked even higher more recently, under Sunak, without this kind of merciless media focus and spin.

    “accompanied by a fall in sterling to its lowest value against the dollar since 1985” the community notice should state, dollar pressure was not just on sterling, everyone else’s currency crisis that week not solely attributed to the UK budget.

    “As is well known, the rise in gilt yields led to a crisis for pension funds that had invested in LDIs and so the Bank of England intervened in the bond markets on 28 September.  This intervention successfully brought bond rates back down.”
    what on earth is the relevance of mentioning this? The bad hedging on pensions sneakily happened under previous Chancellors and Primeminister watch, flushed out by gilt yields issue that was already on the up long before Johnson was forced out, and not just in UK but across Europe, so not solely attributable to the Truss budget.

    If you allow these people to destroy Truss with these lies and spin, they will destroy your own preferred government next. And worse than that, if you come to believe something that isn’t true, you are a gullible idiot, hapless pawn in somebody elses game, aren’t you?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    Viz Top Tips. A selection from a 1988 issue I happen to have to hand gives a flavour:

    But onions instead of apples. They are always much cheaper.

    When having a grandmother or motherly elderly relative cremated, ask the undertaker for their old false teeth. These make excellent pastry cutters, and the decorative crust of a pork pie can evoke such happy memories of a loved one.

    As adverts on TV tell us not to turn on lights if you smell gas, I find it useful to always have a candle ready for use in such emergencies.
    😄 Ok ok I think I'd better stop mine.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    edited January 31

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    Don't forget ChiPs!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5-bD372v5s&t=1s
    For some reason I watched the Dukes of Hazzard religiously but rarely if ever found myself watching the A-Team.

    I'm suspecting that may have been a BBC/ITV thing? We were one of those households with apparently no ITV button on the telly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,195
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Either today or tomorrow we should get the result from the New York court on "disgorgement" for the series of fraudulent activities that the Trump organisation has already been found guilty of. Trump is going to be out of pocket to the tune of $300m - $500m. He'll say, as with the $83m defamation award "I will appeal". However, that requires a bond for the full amount to be put up. Maybe he has a friendly billionaire prepared to put that amount at risk (as the awards will very likely be upheld at appeal). And maybe he don't.

    At the kindest, the Trump organisation was riddled with incompetence that should politically debar somebody from holding the office of America's CEO.

    (There's also a $50m "loan" that has been discovered - a "loan" that risks further criminal charges being laid. It was discovered by the person put in charge of the Trump business empire from making transfers that could frustrate the recovery of the disgorgement payments. When he is on the media railing against that person making work to justify her charges, remember the appointment of that person was approved by Trump.)

    There seems to have been a payment of $48m to him, with no recorded loan in the books of the Trump organisation.

    Trump has filed tax returns with the federal government listing the $48m as a debt to the organisation, I think - so he hasn't payed tax on it as income.
    Which if the reported facts are true is pretty likely to be construed as tax evasion.

    Of course the woman who says she'll vote for him even if he's dead probably doesn't think he should have to pay tax at all.
    As an aside, loaning money to oneself so as to avoid paying income tax is one the most common forms of tax evasion. And if HMRC or the IRS finds you doing it, then you will be in big do do.

    Indeed.
    And if the reported facts are accurate, this is a particularly blatant example up that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,195
    darkage said:

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    It is worth having a look at Tom Macdonalds videos, a rapper who I think is a Trump supporter. He certainly isn't 'insane'.

    It is laughable the way that people keep coming up with the idea that Trump voters are thick. The highest levels of ignorance and stupidity in my experience can be found on the 'woke left'.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kGpohEpuTE
    In thrall rather than insane.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,653
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    You’ve never read Viz Top Tips?!????

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/indispensible-life-tips-from-the-readers-of-viz
    The world is changing. The Old Knowledge passes. One day I will say "I'll get me coat" and no-one will understand... ☹️
    Which begs the question, how can we be sure (of anything) if the world is constantly changing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    ydoethur said:

    My little children's story is being pitched as a film to Apple and Netflix in LA today.

    Finger's crossed!

    With what? :wink:

    Good luck :smile:
    My wife was going through hell on financing Coriolanus, while we were on holiday in a one-bedroom castle at Belladrum in Scotland. To help keep her sane, I wrote a couple of chapters each day of a little story, reading it to her at breakfast and always ending on a cliff-hanger. Did the job, got her through a torrid time.

    Then it sat on the computer doing nothing for about 12 years. Was talking to a script doctor one day and it came up in passing. Sent it to her - she loved it. Had to ration herself to a chapter a day because she didn't want it to end. Then Wifey got called out the blue by someone on Linked-in, asking if she had any children's animation projects. Not an area she ever deals with. "But, well, we've got this..." She loved it. She then prepared a list of people to send it out to. There was a clear top choice, but "You won't get them. They have the "scary boxes" you have to tick. But their feedback will be interesting."

    The scary boxes got ticked - they loved it. And optioned it. They had another film to do first, which they have now sold. They took my little story to Annecy Animation Festival last year, got great feedback. And so they are in LA taking it to the big boys.

    Can't say too much as it is eminently nickable. But lots of British wildlife - and everybody loves the heart it has.

    So - slightly on tenterhooks to see how it went!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    I've reported this house for their flagrant breach of the Trade Descriptions Act

    Haha.

    Many years ago we had a Labrador puppy who did this. As he grew it got harder and harder for him to extracate himself.

    One day we came home to find him sat with the catflap around his neck, trying to look innocent, a big gaping hole in the door where it once fitted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    A relative of mind has in recent years collected box sets of many of the classic US shows, things like Bewitched, Colombo, Streets of San Francisco and so on. It has been interesting to see how they progress through them, and which ones they quietly stop after one season and which ones they do not. As with anything, some stuff reallllly does not hold up.
  • Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Some Trump supporting Republicans probably have bad motives, as do some Biden-supporting Democrats. The majority are acting rationally given their hinterland and perception of the realities involved, which is different to yours. The fact that you prefer to categorise millions of people as intellectually deficient to the point of insanity because they don't share your omniscient view from Warrington is feeble-minded by any objective measure.
    Millions voted for Jeremy Corbyn too. But he still lost anyway and rightly so.

    So should Trump, for the same reasons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    I've reported this house for their flagrant breach of the Trade Descriptions Act

    Haha.

    Many years ago we had a Labrador puppy who did this. As he grew it got harder and harder for him to extracate himself.

    One day we came home to find him sat with the catflap around his neck, trying to look innocent, a big gaping hole in the door where it once fitted.
    I object to the term 'trying to look innocent'. I'll grant you it looks bad, but with no witnesses I can think of a half dozen explanations which do not put the blame on him.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,335
    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    One common fraud on FB is the ”overpayment scam”. They promise to pay your asking price & you agree to the deal. Then they “accidentally” transfer 10x as much from a bank account they’ve fraudulently gained control of. “Terribly sorry” they say, “could you pay the difference to the brother who is turning up to pick up the vase in cash?” Turn on the psychological thumbscrews as necessary...

    If you follow through with their request, then sometime later the real owner of the account reverses the transaction, leaving you minus cash and vase. Oh, and possibly a police investigation for aiding & abetting fraud into the bargain to boot.

    There are other scams too of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    kinabalu said:

    theakes said:

    Latest polling by Emerson shows a distinctive reduction in Trump's lead, down as low as 2%.

    Yes I think we've seen Peak Trump.
    I do not expect it, but it would be a blessed relief if he faded sufficiently that despite his best efforts he is not able to corral spurious legal challenges and violence in November, as he quite clearly intends.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,195
    viewcode said:

    Government found to be acting irrationally by the high court!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68156420

    Im a bit angry at this, and not as much as I should be. The Minister is the democratic representative answerable to the PM for his rank, Parliament for his actions, and his constituents for his membership. He's allowed to be capricious and irrational. Shouldn't the judge have been told to do one?
    Is there a link to the actual decision ?
    The BBC report says this:
    "While the claimants were successful on specific narrow grounds, the majority of their arguments were rejected by the court,"

    The independent pay bodies which make the recommendations (which the government has been ignoring on a regular basis) are I think established by statute, so the courts might have some basis for their ruling - ministers are, after all, subject to existing law like the rest of us, unless they repeal it.

    Without seeing the actual ruling, it's perhaps premature to get wound up about it ?
  • theakes said:

    Latest polling by Emerson shows a distinctive reduction in Trump's lead, down as low as 2%.

    A comparable lead to what Jeremy Corbyn had in many opinion polls this far out from the next election.

    He peaked at a 10% lead six months before the election, didn't help on election day though, did it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,124

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    "Now you're talking semantics. What if I told you insane was working fifty hours a week in some office for fifty years... at the end of which they tell you to piss off? Ending up in some retirement village... hoping to die before suffering the indignity of trying to make it to the toilet on time. Wouldn't you consider that to be insane?"
    On any other day, that might seem strange.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,124

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    You misspelt Confed’rate
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214

    ydoethur said:

    My little children's story is being pitched as a film to Apple and Netflix in LA today.

    Finger's crossed!

    With what? :wink:

    Good luck :smile:
    My wife was going through hell on financing Coriolanus, while we were on holiday in a one-bedroom castle at Belladrum in Scotland. To help keep her sane, I wrote a couple of chapters each day of a little story, reading it to her at breakfast and always ending on a cliff-hanger. Did the job, got her through a torrid time.

    Then it sat on the computer doing nothing for about 12 years. Was talking to a script doctor one day and it came up in passing. Sent it to her - she loved it. Had to ration herself to a chapter a day because she didn't want it to end. Then Wifey got called out the blue by someone on Linked-in, asking if she had any children's animation projects. Not an area she ever deals with. "But, well, we've got this..." She loved it. She then prepared a list of people to send it out to. There was a clear top choice, but "You won't get them. They have the "scary boxes" you have to tick. But their feedback will be interesting."

    The scary boxes got ticked - they loved it. And optioned it. They had another film to do first, which they have now sold. They took my little story to Annecy Animation Festival last year, got great feedback. And so they are in LA taking it to the big boys.

    Can't say too much as it is eminently nickable. But lots of British wildlife - and everybody loves the heart it has.

    So - slightly on tenterhooks to see how it went!
    That sounds very exciting. Good luck.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,124
    Chris said:

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    Boss Hogg for president!
    Boss Hogg was a Democrat

    Alexander Coffroth for President!

    https://youtu.be/u9-tCvkYeRo?si=kx91DV1Ak1na_PKV

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125

    My little children's story is being pitched as a film to Apple and Netflix in LA today.

    Finger's crossed!

    Well this sounds very exciting. Good luck.

    PB might have an animator as well as a flint knapper with some luck.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,076

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Some Trump supporting Republicans probably have bad motives, as do some Biden-supporting Democrats. The majority are acting rationally given their hinterland and perception of the realities involved, which is different to yours. The fact that you prefer to categorise millions of people as intellectually deficient to the point of insanity because they don't share your omniscient view from Warrington is feeble-minded by any objective measure.
    Millions voted for Jeremy Corbyn too. But he still lost anyway and rightly so.

    So should Trump, for the same reasons.
    Are you sure about the "same reasons" bit?

    Corbyn, even if he would have been a terrible PM (vain, not as bright as he thought, some really bad ideas and allies) broadly stuck by the rules of the game. Had he lost a subsequent election, I doubt he would have tried to change the result and dared minions to stop him. (The "I don't care if MPs VONCd me, my mandate is from the party" thing doesn't quite count. Thems were the rules.)

    As far as we can tell, Trump did. That's much more dangerous. Which is why it's so sad and alarming that he's dragging the entire Republican Party into grovelling before him.
    Hm. Corbyn surrounded himself with literal Marxists. The enthusiasm for Marxists for democracy has akways been rather lukewarm. Would the likes of John McDonnell really allowed a peaceful handover of power in losing an election?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,076
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    My little children's story is being pitched as a film to Apple and Netflix in LA today.

    Finger's crossed!

    With what? :wink:

    Good luck :smile:
    My wife was going through hell on financing Coriolanus, while we were on holiday in a one-bedroom castle at Belladrum in Scotland. To help keep her sane, I wrote a couple of chapters each day of a little story, reading it to her at breakfast and always ending on a cliff-hanger. Did the job, got her through a torrid time.

    Then it sat on the computer doing nothing for about 12 years. Was talking to a script doctor one day and it came up in passing. Sent it to her - she loved it. Had to ration herself to a chapter a day because she didn't want it to end. Then Wifey got called out the blue by someone on Linked-in, asking if she had any children's animation projects. Not an area she ever deals with. "But, well, we've got this..." She loved it. She then prepared a list of people to send it out to. There was a clear top choice, but "You won't get them. They have the "scary boxes" you have to tick. But their feedback will be interesting."

    The scary boxes got ticked - they loved it. And optioned it. They had another film to do first, which they have now sold. They took my little story to Annecy Animation Festival last year, got great feedback. And so they are in LA taking it to the big boys.

    Can't say too much as it is eminently nickable. But lots of British wildlife - and everybody loves the heart it has.

    So - slightly on tenterhooks to see how it went!
    That sounds very exciting. Good luck.
    Yes, this is great news. Best of luck with it!
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,040
    kle4 said:

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    A relative of mind has in recent years collected box sets of many of the classic US shows, things like Bewitched, Colombo, Streets of San Francisco and so on. It has been interesting to see how they progress through them, and which ones they quietly stop after one season and which ones they do not. As with anything, some stuff reallllly does not hold up.
    The first run of Columbo is excellent. The quality rarely dips. What is noticeable is the change in the character of Columbo from the first couple of episodes where he’s a lot darker and could be quite ruthless.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,076
    kle4 said:

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    A relative of mind has in recent years collected box sets of many of the classic US shows, things like Bewitched, Colombo, Streets of San Francisco and so on. It has been interesting to see how they progress through them, and which ones they quietly stop after one season and which ones they do not. As with anything, some stuff reallllly does not hold up.
    I loved Dukes of Hazzard as a seven year old. It had car chases. I suspect as an adult the attraction might not be there, but I'd be happy to give it a go!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,076
    I learned something today.
    Apparently, university med schools are put under tremendous pressure by government not to offer places. If they set the bar too low and get too many students as a result, the government fines them £10000 per student.
    Can this really be true? If so, it's no wonder we aren't training enough medics.
  • Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Some Trump supporting Republicans probably have bad motives, as do some Biden-supporting Democrats. The majority are acting rationally given their hinterland and perception of the realities involved, which is different to yours. The fact that you prefer to categorise millions of people as intellectually deficient to the point of insanity because they don't share your omniscient view from Warrington is feeble-minded by any objective measure.
    Millions voted for Jeremy Corbyn too. But he still lost anyway and rightly so.

    So should Trump, for the same reasons.
    Are you sure about the "same reasons" bit?

    Corbyn, even if he would have been a terrible PM (vain, not as bright as he thought, some really bad ideas and allies) broadly stuck by the rules of the game. Had he lost a subsequent election, I doubt he would have tried to change the result and dared minions to stop him. (The "I don't care if MPs VONCd me, my mandate is from the party" thing doesn't quite count. Thems were the rules.)

    As far as we can tell, Trump did. That's much more dangerous. Which is why it's so sad and alarming that he's dragging the entire Republican Party into grovelling before him.
    Are you sure? He was never in a position to change the result but certainly blurred the lines wherever he could.

    He responded to his 2017 defeat by acting as if he'd won the election.
    He responded to 80% of the PLP no confidencing him by blowing them a big raspberry and seeking to get minions in positions who could change/disregard the LP rules.
    He stood by while his own MPs were threatened by his minions and driven out of the party (shades of how Mike Pence was treated there).

    Etc

    He never held any power to abuse like Trump did, but what limited power he did have, he was willing to abuse.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,287
    The President of El Salvador responds to Senator Ilhan Omar:

    https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1752750891554201737

    We are HONORED to receive your attacks, just days before OUR election.

    I would be very worried if we had your support.

    Thank you 🙏🏼
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Evening all :)

    Travelling through the economic wasteland of Surrey and Hampshire today, I mused on the YouGov numbers from last week. The England sub sample has Labour 49%, Conservative 21%, Reform 13%, LD 9%, Green 7%.

    That's a 20.5% swing from Conservative to Labour which would decimate the Conservatives. The Con/Ref vs Lab/LD/Green split is little changed at 33-61 which is a 13.5% move from the last election.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,421

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    I used to love the A-Team as a kid. A weird memory association with it: I was watching a repeat in the common room back in 1990, when our housemaster came in to ask a couple of the boys to come to his office. The army had just called to say that their dads had been sent to Kuwait, and the housemaster had to inform them of it.

    Seemed a weird way of doing it; I would have thought other mothers or other relatives should have done it.

    I'll always associate the A-Team with that, for some odd reason.
    Useful chaps, housemasters, for posh schoolboys. The well-known Cambridge graduate Guy Burgess was told by his that his mother had remarried.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Some Trump supporting Republicans probably have bad motives, as do some Biden-supporting Democrats. The majority are acting rationally given their hinterland and perception of the realities involved, which is different to yours. The fact that you prefer to categorise millions of people as intellectually deficient to the point of insanity because they don't share your omniscient view from Warrington is feeble-minded by any objective measure.
    Millions voted for Jeremy Corbyn too. But he still lost anyway and rightly so.

    So should Trump, for the same reasons.
    Are you sure about the "same reasons" bit?

    Corbyn, even if he would have been a terrible PM (vain, not as bright as he thought, some really bad ideas and allies) broadly stuck by the rules of the game. Had he lost a subsequent election, I doubt he would have tried to change the result and dared minions to stop him. (The "I don't care if MPs VONCd me, my mandate is from the party" thing doesn't quite count. Thems were the rules.)

    As far as we can tell, Trump did. That's much more dangerous. Which is why it's so sad and alarming that he's dragging the entire Republican Party into grovelling before him.
    Are you sure? He was never in a position to change the result but certainly blurred the lines wherever he could.

    He responded to his 2017 defeat by acting as if he'd won the election.
    He responded to 80% of the PLP no confidencing him by blowing them a big raspberry and seeking to get minions in positions who could change/disregard the LP rules.
    He stood by while his own MPs were threatened by his minions and driven out of the party (shades of how Mike Pence was treated there).

    Etc

    He never held any power to abuse like Trump did, but what limited power he did have, he was willing to abuse.
    You talk a load of bollocks

    Corbyn was right to ignore the chicken coup. The membership gave him his mandate and under Labour rules the PLP had no way of overriding his mandate no matter how entitled they thought they were.

    220 is not greater the 500,000 in the one member one vote system.

    I should stick to subjects you know about rather than making shit up.

    I realise that limits your scope to bugger all!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,076
    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    You’ve never read Viz Top Tips?!????

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/indispensible-life-tips-from-the-readers-of-viz
    No I hadn't. V funny. I can be a bit unplugged and ivory tower sometimes.
    Also, you're, what, early 60s? I suspect this is a generational thing: anyone who was a teenager 1985-1995 will get almist any Viz reference; for anyone who just missed out they can be almost totally ignorant of it.
  • Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Its not a lack of curiosity, its a lack of respect.

    Some voters have awful views that need to be defeated. The good thing in a democracy is they can be.

    I understand why some Americans are supporting Trump, just as I understand why some Britons supported Jeremy Corbyn. Understanding and respecting are two totally different things, I didn't respect Corbyn and his acolytes, nor do I don't respect Trump.
    Some Trump supporting Republicans probably have bad motives, as do some Biden-supporting Democrats. The majority are acting rationally given their hinterland and perception of the realities involved, which is different to yours. The fact that you prefer to categorise millions of people as intellectually deficient to the point of insanity because they don't share your omniscient view from Warrington is feeble-minded by any objective measure.
    Millions voted for Jeremy Corbyn too. But he still lost anyway and rightly so.

    So should Trump, for the same reasons.
    Are you sure about the "same reasons" bit?

    Corbyn, even if he would have been a terrible PM (vain, not as bright as he thought, some really bad ideas and allies) broadly stuck by the rules of the game. Had he lost a subsequent election, I doubt he would have tried to change the result and dared minions to stop him. (The "I don't care if MPs VONCd me, my mandate is from the party" thing doesn't quite count. Thems were the rules.)

    As far as we can tell, Trump did. That's much more dangerous. Which is why it's so sad and alarming that he's dragging the entire Republican Party into grovelling before him.
    Are you sure? He was never in a position to change the result but certainly blurred the lines wherever he could.

    He responded to his 2017 defeat by acting as if he'd won the election.
    He responded to 80% of the PLP no confidencing him by blowing them a big raspberry and seeking to get minions in positions who could change/disregard the LP rules.
    He stood by while his own MPs were threatened by his minions and driven out of the party (shades of how Mike Pence was treated there).

    Etc

    He never held any power to abuse like Trump did, but what limited power he did have, he was willing to abuse.
    You talk a load of bollocks

    Corbyn was right to ignore the chicken coup. The membership gave him his mandate and under Labour rules the PLP had no way of overriding his mandate no matter how entitled they thought they were.

    220 is not greater the 500,000 in the one member one vote system.

    I should stick to subjects you know about rather than making shit up.

    I realise that limits your scope to bugger all!
    You should learn more about Parliamentary democracy.

    The average elected MP has about 30,000 voters voting for them.

    30,000 * 220 = 6,600,000 voters they represent (just Labour Party voters, disregarding the rest of the electorate they also represent) which is greater than 500,000.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,076

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    I used to love the A-Team as a kid. A weird memory association with it: I was watching a repeat in the common room back in 1990, when our housemaster came in to ask a couple of the boys to come to his office. The army had just called to say that their dads had been sent to Kuwait, and the housemaster had to inform them of it.

    Seemed a weird way of doing it; I would have thought other mothers or other relatives should have done it.

    I'll always associate the A-Team with that, for some odd reason.
    Useful chaps, housemasters, for posh schoolboys. The well-known Cambridge graduate Guy Burgess was told by his that his mother had remarried.
    You don't have to travel very far in time or social class for the world to get very weird indeed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Haley stepping it up on Trump.

    "He's just toxic..."
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,319

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    I've never been curious enough to see most of those type of 'classic' US shows - The A-Team, Mash, Starsky & Hutch, Charlie's Angels - I'm assuming (but not sure) Dukes of Hazzard comes under that grouping.
    I used to love the A-Team as a kid. A weird memory association with it: I was watching a repeat in the common room back in 1990, when our housemaster came in to ask a couple of the boys to come to his office. The army had just called to say that their dads had been sent to Kuwait, and the housemaster had to inform them of it.

    Seemed a weird way of doing it; I would have thought other mothers or other relatives should have done it.

    I'll always associate the A-Team with that, for some odd reason.
    Useful chaps, housemasters, for posh schoolboys. The well-known Cambridge graduate Guy Burgess was told by his that his mother had remarried.
    There's a Graham Greene short story about a housemaster who had to tell a boy that his father was dead. "What happened?" asked the boy. "He was hit ... by a pig ... falling from a balcony ... in Naples" he managed to blurt out, before dissolving into a spasm of uncontrollable laughter.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Off topic (since talking Trump can make me tremble) here's another little tip to follow my 'drink wine from a sherry glass' yesterday. When you're slicing up some meat, say a chicken breast, execute at a slight angle to the meat's surface. You get a quicker, cleaner cut this way compared to going in perpendicular.

    I preferred the ones in Viz.
    Ah never seen Viz. Did they do life hacks?
    You’ve never read Viz Top Tips?!????

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/indispensible-life-tips-from-the-readers-of-viz
    No I hadn't. V funny. I can be a bit unplugged and ivory tower sometimes.
    Also, you're, what, early 60s? I suspect this is a generational thing: anyone who was a teenager 1985-1995 will get almist any Viz reference; for anyone who just missed out they can be almost totally ignorant of it.
    Yeah Viz is absolutely foundational for me, humour wise. I'll never grow out of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    My little children's story is being pitched as a film to Apple and Netflix in LA today.

    Finger's crossed!

    Well this sounds very exciting. Good luck.

    PB might have an animator as well as a flint knapper with some luck.
    Thanks guys!

    It served its purpose at the time, but it is nice that it might have a wider life.

    (Plus, the merch could be huge!)
This discussion has been closed.