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Trump could be in political trouble if found guilty – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 4 in General
Trump could be in political trouble if found guilty – politicalbetting.com

Trump stands to lose majorities of swing state voters if found guilty: poll https://t.co/KVBkItD6hp

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565
    Second like Trump
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,952
    edited January 31
    I'd expect he'd lose more if he wasn't found guilty, since it'd demonstrate he's wrong about there being a conspiracy against him.

    Surely all this is already priced in?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,614
    Anyone who might consider voting for Trump would find his criminal record attractive not repellant. Rape, fraud, tax evasion, theft of state secrets, electoral malfeasance, incitement, conspiracy, rebellion - what's not to like?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,805
    That the US is full of lunatics doesn’t mean that the minority of sensible voters won’t make a difference at the margin.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833

    Anyone who might consider voting for Trump would find his criminal record attractive not repellant. Rape, fraud, tax evasion, theft of state secrets, electoral malfeasance, incitement, conspiracy, rebellion - what's not to like?

    Salvatore "Sammy the Bull" Gravano approved this post.

    Trump is A Friend of Ours
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,069
    edited January 31
    nico679 said:

    It looks like a pretty good deal for NI .

    One issue though is EU law . What happens if the NI assembly vote against a new EU law , how does this effect their access to the EU market ?

    It does look like the EU have made some concessions. It’s amazing what happens when you build trust and don’t continually threaten them as in the Johnson years .

    Unfortunately for Sunak this won’t move the polls because the vast majority of the public couldn’t care less about NI .

    Windsor agreement and fanfare around it did move the polls initially, part of the Tory polling spring recovery last year. Even though it did have Sunak saying the most stupid thing of his Premiership, so far: you lucky people in NI are in the greatest position in the whole world, in the UK market and EU market simultaneously - even though I’m selling this to you as wonderful, I actively took the rest of UK out of this arrangement myself.

    In fact I recall my posts on PB from a year ago, as a lone sceptic if that from Sunak’s own lips is the definition of the Windsor Agreement, then it’s absolutely insane he is gaining in the polls from signing it. Because is it not an absolutely bonkers thing to sell to the people of NI with the rest of the UK listening in to him selling it like that?

    As support for BREXIT, or at least the feeling it’s been implemented well and is going well, has fallen away - it’s probably been helped on its way by the Windsor Agreement particularly the way Rishi sold it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,437
    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    The last is true, but did they get any better off under four years of Trump? If so, I can see the reason to vote for him again. But if not, then why bother to vote for either of Biden or Trump?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833
    pm215 said:

    As I've said before, I'm pretty sceptical about taking this polling at anywhere near face value. I think there's a sizeable group of voters who will tell you today "if Trump is found guilty I wouldn't vote for him", but who, in the event of an actual guilty verdict, would pivot to some other position like "this was a witchhunt and persecution by the Democrats, and Trump didn't do these things, so I'm still voting for him". Not everybody who answered that way to the poll, but quite a lot.

    Humans are very bad at predicting what their opinion would be under some future hypothetical.

    Yes - the Trump bubble isn't near bursting.

    Though it should be.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075
    File under 'Too many hypotheticals' (one is too many, two is fatal).

    File also under 'Too good to be true'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,837
    edited January 31
    Either today or tomorrow we should get the result from the New York court on "disgorgement" for the series of fraudulent activities that the Trump organisation has already been found guilty of. Trump is going to be out of pocket to the tune of $300m - $500m. He'll say, as with the $83m defamation award "I will appeal". However, that requires a bond for the full amount to be put up. Maybe he has a friendly billionaire prepared to put that amount at risk (as the awards will very likely be upheld at appeal). And maybe he don't.

    At the kindest, the Trump organisation was riddled with incompetence that should politically debar somebody from holding the office of America's CEO.

    (There's also a $50m "loan" that has been discovered - a "loan" that risks further criminal charges being laid. It was discovered by the person put in charge of the Trump business empire from making transfers that could frustrate the recovery of the disgorgement payments. When he is on the media railing against that person making work to justify her charges, remember the appointment of that person was approved by Trump.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,437
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    The last is true, but did they get any better off under four years of Trump? If so, I can see the reason to vote for him again. But if not, then why bother to vote for either of Biden or Trump?
    Until the start of the pandemic, the economy, and especially employment numbers, were booming.

    They’re still booming now, but there’s been a massive wealth transfer in the past four years, and the headline statistics don’t mean much to the average Amercian in a swing state.

    Personally I’d probably vote for whichever party ditches the octogenarian, but I don’t have a vote!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 8,924
    So what happens? Does he remain the nominee or would Haley be able to replace him? Biden winning by default might satisfy the never Trumpers but it leaves a massive sore unaddressed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565
    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    He lost the popular vote in 2016!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:
    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,129
    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    Given current odds on Trump winning are a little above evens, what do you think the odds should be, if everyone is currently totally underestimating Trump?

    Of course it's possible Trump will win, I doubt decisively (depending on how you define it), I'd guess it's going to be close either way. There's a long way to go but Biden has a bit more potential to improve his position than Trump so far as I can tell

    Also, if Trump is jailed ahead of the election (unlikely) will it be because he is a 'political opponent', or will it be because he has committed crimes? Do you think there should be blanket immunity from any kind of prosecution for anyone running for election?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,278

    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    He lost the popular vote in 2016!
    Irrelevant. He won the election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
  • Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    I keep getting DMs on LinkedIn of all places. Same scam every time - contact is a low grade representative of a massive asian company doing prospecting for their boss, my profile is of interest, opportunities to collaborate, they like to call via WhatsApp what are your details.

    Not sure what having my phone number could do, but I'm not handing it out, especially when the boss never has their own LinkedIn profile...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,278

    So what happens? Does he remain the nominee or would Haley be able to replace him? Biden winning by default might satisfy the never Trumpers but it leaves a massive sore unaddressed.

    Simple answer is: nobody knows.

    In all probability, Trump tries to remain nominee - and with votes and delegates in the bag, could well do so.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,196
    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,129

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Why do you think no voters will be voting on whether Trump is fit for office?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732
    edited January 31

    Either today or tomorrow we should get the result from the New York court on "disgorgement" for the series of fraudulent activities that the Trump organisation has already been found guilty of. Trump is going to be out of pocket to the tune of $300m - $500m. He'll say, as with the $83m defamation award "I will appeal". However, that requires a bond for the full amount to be put up. Maybe he has a friendly billionaire prepared to put that amount at risk (as the awards will very likely be upheld at appeal). And maybe he don't.

    At the kindest, the Trump organisation was riddled with incompetence that should politically debar somebody from holding the office of America's CEO.

    (There's also a $50m "loan" that has been discovered - a "loan" that risks further criminal charges being laid. It was discovered by the person put in charge of the Trump business empire from making transfers that could frustrate the recovery of the disgorgement payments. When he is on the media railing against that person making work to justify her charges, remember the appointment of that person was approved by Trump.)

    There is also one of the latest faceplants of Mr Chump's Lawyer Alina Habbadabbadoo ("I want to be like yoo-who-whooo") who launched an attack on the Judge in the NY Defamation Case alleging that an inappropriate mentoring relationship between the Judge and E Jean Carroll's lawyer meant the Judge was compromised and the whole thing should be thrown out, and that she had become aware of it after an article appeared in the NY Post.

    Said mentoring relationship being that 30 years ago the Judge had been a partner at a 1000-strong firm, whilst the Lawyer had been a Junior there for a couple of years.

    The Lawyer slapped it down as BS.

    And the article contains content explaining what Habbadabbadoo planned to do, so she knew about it.

    Which means that La "I would rather be pretty than smart; I can fake being smart" Trumpette would seem to have deceived the Court. Again. Having already been sanctioned multiple times.

    The Judge can withdraw her right to practise in NY.

    Oooops. Or 5-dimensional chess?

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244
    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    I know the answer to this one. It is best explained by demonstration so if you vimto me $999 to my email address I can show you how it works.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,703
    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Use eBay. I wouldn't trust FB.

    That said, some time ago someone was selling a smart TV near to me pm FB at a good price so I said I'd buy it. Why are you selling I asked - he has a larger one, was the reply. Like an idiot I suggested the station car park for the handover so there was no way to know whether the TV worked (it did, perfectly).

    Anyway, since that time I have noticed many TVs for sale on FB by the same seller.

    Ho hum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    kamski said:

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Why do you think no voters will be voting on whether Trump is fit for office?
    A small number of Never Trump Republicans might, but in general people won't think, "I like Trump's policies and hate the direction things are going under the Democrats, but I just can't bring myself to vote for someone who inflated the value of his property on a loan application."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,473

    kamski said:

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Why do you think no voters will be voting on whether Trump is fit for office?
    A small number of Never Trump Republicans might, but in general people won't think, "I like Trump's policies and hate the direction things are going under the Democrats, but I just can't bring myself to vote for someone who inflated the value of his property on a loan application."
    A rapist and a racketeer might test a few boundaries though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    Interesting poll of a hypothetical three-way race between Trump, Biden and Haley:

    Trump: 42%
    Biden: 37%
    Haley: 12%

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/january-2024-national-poll-trump-and-biden-remain-neck-and-neck-in-likely-rematch/
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    edited January 31
    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Use eBay. I wouldn't trust FB.

    That said, some time ago someone was selling a smart TV near to me pm FB at a good price so I said I'd buy it. Why are you selling I asked - he has a larger one, was the reply. Like an idiot I suggested the station car park for the handover so there was no way to know whether the TV worked (it did, perfectly).

    Anyway, since that time I have noticed many TVs for sale on FB by the same seller.

    Ho hum.
    Ebay has its own issues though - buyer is always right.

    A few years back I sold a brand new kids bike on Ebay. Posted it, buyer claimed there were parts missing (there were not, as became apparent on return). Buyer initiated return via Ebay. I had to cough for the outward and return postage and give a full refund, ended up about £30 down with a bike that was now open box rather than BNIB. No recourse other than to report buyer, which I did. Not a scam per se, buyer presumably just changed mind and didn't fancy paying the return postage. But the scope for similar issues here is off-putting - buyer dislikes, claims broken etc and returns, no recourse. We'll probably do a collection only Ebay option, but even then not entirely safe.

    Tempted to take it to a dealer ourselves and just pass on the sale price (but would be almost certainly lower than the relative is looking for).

    ETA: Re your story, at least is someone ever nicks your telly you'll be able to recover it for a reasonable fee :wink:
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,278
    Worth noting that a candidate needs 1215 delegates to win the Republican nomination.

    In terms of timeline, that splits down as:

    Jan / Feb: 158
    March 1-4: 173
    March 5: 874
    March 9-12: 170
    March 15-19: 359

    In other words, it's only just over a month to Super Tuesday, and around 6 weeks until half the delegates have been awarded, with well over two-thirds gone by mid-March. If something is going to happen to deprive Trump of the nomination, it will have to happen very quickly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,529
    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,437
    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    At worst it’s fishing for personal details that they can’t get elsewhere, and can eventually piece together for an impersonation scam elsewhere.

    More likely, they either:
    1. Want you to ship the item without confirmed funds received.
    2. Will claim back to the bank that you delivered them a brick.
    3. On PayPal, that company will almost always settle a dispute with the buyer.

    If they’re collecting an item physically, insist on CoD.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,129

    kamski said:

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Why do you think no voters will be voting on whether Trump is fit for office?
    A small number of Never Trump Republicans might, but in general people won't think, "I like Trump's policies and hate the direction things are going under the Democrats, but I just can't bring myself to vote for someone who inflated the value of his property on a loan application."
    It seems to me there are some - enough to make a difference in a close election - actual floating voters who aren't yet convinced by either candidate. Common sense tells me it's plausible that they might be influenced in which way they vote by Trump's legal issues. But I have no special knowledge, I don't know the US - hence I was asking why you seem so sure that it won't tip the balance for any voters to vote against Trump. I mean if I was a floating voter, then thinking one candidate was definitely unfit for office would probably tip the balance against that candidate for me.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,823
    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Re fertility

    I managed to knock out two kids, somehow, amidst the chaos of my life. I never really lived with either of the mothers - in the first instance we tried but failed within months; the second woman didn't even want to try

    And yet even then the responsibilties severely impinged my life for a while, and the whole thing has been horrifically expensive. Albeit now I see it as absolutely worth it, despite all the pain and hassle. The only thing I can really compare it too is Brexit

    So I can totally understand why young people don't want their own personal Brexit. However that does mean the human species will die out

    The predominant feature of Western culture today is me me me me me..

    Anything that might involve any sense of duty, sacrifice or service is dismissed as the individual being a bit of a mug or even sneered at and frowned upon. We are encouraged to have and take whatever we want, whenever we want it, and damn right too, and we don't owe anyone anything or have any obligations to anyone.

    And, thus, a secret emptiness creeps into people's lives.
    If that was true, I doubt there'd be much of a volunteer or charity sectors in the country.
    It's incredible to me how we can have both such a large welfare state in this country and such a big need for charity/volunteer services. I can understand the need for one or the other, but not both at the same time. The whole point of the establishment of the welfare state was supposed to be to largely supersede the need for charity.
    Arguably there are too many small charities. Many seem to originate in a personal tragedy (someone is murdered with a knife, family sets up a Charity in the their name. Someone dies of a rare cancer, family sets up a charity in their name etc).

    I think these charities are serving a purpose of helping the families feel better, but as actual charities, I'm less convinced.

    I also see an awful lot of charities attached to the teat of the public purse - at which point they are not really charities at all, rather they are providers of X for the commissioning body.
    Big charities are run by paid professionals, which many object to, so give to smaller charities where no-one is paid even if the net result is uncoordinated duplication at best to a complete shambles at worst (and that's not counting the Captain Tom debacle).
    Mrs Flatlander is a trustee on a small charity which is a bit shambolic at times, mainly because she doesn't have time to sort it out properly and the original founder's family isn't really up to the job.

    It manages some land and the land is still there and not trashed, so in that sense it still works despite everything.

    The large organisation for this kind of thing would be a local Wildlife Trust. Unfortunately they aren't really interested in small pieces of land - even when part of a larger whole - as they are difficult to fund.

    As an example, they (the Wildlife Trust) were recently offered a piece of land (limestone grassland) with an important collection of rare plants but refused the gift as the site was apparently too small. Presumably this wouldn't attract enough funding from DEFRA for High Level Stewardship (or whatever the equivalent to this will be) and thus there would not be enough income to pay the staff who would have to manage it.

    There's definitely a role for the small charity that can deal with fiddling small change and not have to pay a Chief Executive.


    On the general 'civic society' front, I have found that a lot of local clubs and societies have declined or folded or now have age profiles above 70.
    This is unsurprising, though I believe small local organisations, groups etc are critical to the good running of communities, especially but not only in more rural areas.

    As to why people may be reluctant to commit to unpaid and unappreciated drudgery, Google "Charity trustee risks" and have a look at the 7 pages of Charity Commission advice on trustee liability, or the 33 pages on risk management.

    Incidentally huge numbers of people will be trustees without even knowing they are, for example many CoE PCC members have no idea what they are taking on, believing its main task (as it often appears) is to organise the coffee rota and throw away 500 page documents on gays.
    Exactly. It's one thing being responsible for one's actions, but quite another to risk the family house on some incompetent's behaviour.

    It doesn't have to be a trustee who is put off. I was once asked by a civic society to co-lead a field outing over some fairly rough ground. Liability insurance for accidents is absolutely the norm for such events and is easily obtained. But the organiser wouldn't do it even when we pointed it out - so we wouldn't do it. Else we'd have been personally liable for any accidents/injuries.
    Trustee liability is a worry, although making sure suitable insurance is in place is one job that doesn't get left to anyone shambolic.

    It seems that you have less liability as a business owner than as a trustee of a charity. This must be wrong.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244

    kamski said:

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Why do you think no voters will be voting on whether Trump is fit for office?
    A small number of Never Trump Republicans might, but in general people won't think, "I like Trump's policies and hate the direction things are going under the Democrats, but I just can't bring myself to vote for someone who inflated the value of his property on a loan application."
    It is a turnout election not a persuasion one.

    Are there Republicans who might choose to sit at home if convicted but would vote otherwise?
    Are there Democrats annoyed with Biden who might see Trump as unpalatable if convicted?

    Surely the answers to these are yes and in significant numbers. Whether they will be sufficient or not, who knows?
  • Ipsos has some very interesting historic charts.

    In yesterday's political monitor it looked at the % that might change their mind on who to vote for.



    Previously the percentage that might change their mind reduced over the term of the parliament - this makes sense as the closer to an election the more certain your vote becomes.

    However since 2019 there has been little change. Why?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
    There are buy it now offers on Ebay ~£70 under our asking price (and not, apparently, selling fast). Also a dealer within 20 miles selling at about £40 under our initial asking price. Relative's minimum sale price about matches the Ebay prices. I fear she may be disappointed!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420

    kamski said:

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Why do you think no voters will be voting on whether Trump is fit for office?
    A small number of Never Trump Republicans might, but in general people won't think, "I like Trump's policies and hate the direction things are going under the Democrats, but I just can't bring myself to vote for someone who inflated the value of his property on a loan application."
    It is a turnout election not a persuasion one.

    Are there Republicans who might choose to sit at home if convicted but would vote otherwise?
    Are there Democrats annoyed with Biden who might see Trump as unpalatable if convicted?

    Surely the answers to these are yes and in significant numbers. Whether they will be sufficient or not, who knows?
    It won't just go in one direction. The DeSantis camp is convinced that all the lawfare agaisnt Trump helped bolster his support in the primaries. If there is a perception that Trump has been persecuted it will make some people turn out to vote for him who would otherwise not have bothered.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,823
    edited January 31
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    At worst it’s fishing for personal details that they can’t get elsewhere, and can eventually piece together for an impersonation scam elsewhere.

    More likely, they either:
    1. Want you to ship the item without confirmed funds received.
    2. Will claim back to the bank that you delivered them a brick.
    3. On PayPal, that company will almost always settle a dispute with the buyer.

    If they’re collecting an item physically, insist on CoD.
    Isn't there a variant where the 'brother' apparently needs cash immediately so the scammer pays you more than the price by Venmo (or whatever) and expects cash 'change' to be given to the 'brother'. The transfer payment then vanishes two days later leaving you without an item and down some cash.

    Run away!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,333

    Interesting poll of a hypothetical three-way race between Trump, Biden and Haley:

    Trump: 42%
    Biden: 37%
    Haley: 12%

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/january-2024-national-poll-trump-and-biden-remain-neck-and-neck-in-likely-rematch/

    Haley gains nothing from a third party run. Won’t happen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,437
    kamski said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    Given current odds on Trump winning are a little above evens, what do you think the odds should be, if everyone is currently totally underestimating Trump?

    Of course it's possible Trump will win, I doubt decisively (depending on how you define it), I'd guess it's going to be close either way. There's a long way to go but Biden has a bit more potential to improve his position than Trump so far as I can tell

    Also, if Trump is jailed ahead of the election (unlikely) will it be because he is a 'political opponent', or will it be because he has committed crimes? Do you think there should be blanket immunity from any kind of prosecution for anyone running for election?
    I think Trump’s about 60/40 to win at the moment, and I’m doing my best to follow a variety of news sources in the US.

    Any criminal action against Trump will be portrayed as politically motivated by his supporters, which isn’t helped by the civil cases that have clear political motivations.

    Unless he’s actually in prison on Election Day, I suspect he wins.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,244
    edited January 31

    kamski said:

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Why do you think no voters will be voting on whether Trump is fit for office?
    A small number of Never Trump Republicans might, but in general people won't think, "I like Trump's policies and hate the direction things are going under the Democrats, but I just can't bring myself to vote for someone who inflated the value of his property on a loan application."
    It is a turnout election not a persuasion one.

    Are there Republicans who might choose to sit at home if convicted but would vote otherwise?
    Are there Democrats annoyed with Biden who might see Trump as unpalatable if convicted?

    Surely the answers to these are yes and in significant numbers. Whether they will be sufficient or not, who knows?
    It won't just go in one direction. The DeSantis camp is convinced that all the lawfare agaisnt Trump helped bolster his support in the primaries. If there is a perception that Trump has been persecuted it will make some people turn out to vote for him who would otherwise not have bothered.
    Agree it will solidify Trumpista turnout even further. Not sure how much of that is left to squeeze as they are dedicated and determined.

    You probably won't agree but I suspect the bigger benefit to the Trump side of the equation is it will provide cover and justification for more Trump officials to allow cheating in the vote counts.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,532
    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Use eBay. I wouldn't trust FB.

    That said, some time ago someone was selling a smart TV near to me pm FB at a good price so I said I'd buy it. Why are you selling I asked - he has a larger one, was the reply. Like an idiot I suggested the station car park for the handover so there was no way to know whether the TV worked (it did, perfectly).

    Anyway, since that time I have noticed many TVs for sale on FB by the same seller.

    Ho hum.
    Ebay has its own issues though - buyer is always right.

    A few years back I sold a brand new kids bike on Ebay. Posted it, buyer claimed there were parts missing (there were not, as became apparent on return). Buyer initiated return via Ebay. I had to cough for the outward and return postage and give a full refund, ended up about £30 down with a bike that was now open box rather than BNIB. No recourse other than to report buyer, which I did. Not a scam per se, buyer presumably just changed mind and didn't fancy paying the return postage. But the scope for similar issues here is off-putting - buyer dislikes, claims broken etc and returns, no recourse. We'll probably do a collection only Ebay option, but even then not entirely safe.

    Tempted to take it to a dealer ourselves and just pass on the sale price (but would be almost certainly lower than the relative is looking for).

    ETA: Re your story, at least is someone ever nicks your telly you'll be able to recover it for a reasonable fee :wink:
    Not sure what the collectables are but you can sell pretty much anything on Vinted nowadays to quite high values (eg Tom Ford stuff £2k plus) and there’s a fair bit of protection tor both parties. The scammers tend to be on the selling side in my experience.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 6,751
    pm215 said:

    As I've said before, I'm pretty sceptical about taking this polling at anywhere near face value. I think there's a sizeable group of voters who will tell you today "if Trump is found guilty I wouldn't vote for him", but who, in the event of an actual guilty verdict, would pivot to some other position like "this was a witchhunt and persecution by the Democrats, and Trump didn't do these things, so I'm still voting for him". Not everybody who answered that way to the poll, but quite a lot.

    Humans are very bad at predicting what their opinion would be under some future hypothetical.

    Agreed. But, equally, some of those who say they will vote for him if he's found guilty might feel differently too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 6,751

    nico679 said:

    It looks like a pretty good deal for NI .

    One issue though is EU law . What happens if the NI assembly vote against a new EU law , how does this effect their access to the EU market ?

    It does look like the EU have made some concessions. It’s amazing what happens when you build trust and don’t continually threaten them as in the Johnson years .

    Unfortunately for Sunak this won’t move the polls because the vast majority of the public couldn’t care less about NI .

    Windsor agreement and fanfare around it did move the polls initially, part of the Tory polling spring recovery last year. Even though it did have Sunak saying the most stupid thing of his Premiership, so far: you lucky people in NI are in the greatest position in the whole world, in the UK market and EU market simultaneously - even though I’m selling this to you as wonderful, I actively took the rest of UK out of this arrangement myself.

    In fact I recall my posts on PB from a year ago, as a lone sceptic if that from Sunak’s own lips is the definition of the Windsor Agreement, then it’s absolutely insane he is gaining in the polls from signing it. Because is it not an absolutely bonkers thing to sell to the people of NI with the rest of the UK listening in to him selling it like that?

    As support for BREXIT, or at least the feeling it’s been implemented well and is going well, has fallen away - it’s probably been helped on its way by the Windsor Agreement particularly the way Rishi sold it.
    I think if the NI Assembly vote against a new EU law, then that's the NI Assembly choosing to collapse the whole deal, a "nuclear option", but the point is, it's up to them, not anyone else. The presumption, I believe, is that you'd never get such a vote passed because you wouldn't get cross-community agreement for it.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,278

    Interesting poll of a hypothetical three-way race between Trump, Biden and Haley:

    Trump: 42%
    Biden: 37%
    Haley: 12%

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/january-2024-national-poll-trump-and-biden-remain-neck-and-neck-in-likely-rematch/

    Haley gains nothing from a third party run. Won’t happen.
    As I've said repeatedly, not only will the defeated GOP candidates not run a third-party campaign: they can't run a third party campaign. Sore-loser laws and filing deadlines mean it is literally impossible to do so unless the majority of states change their laws to allow it, which obviously they won't.

    https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1632783128170201088
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,529
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
    There are buy it now offers on Ebay ~£70 under our asking price (and not, apparently, selling fast). Also a dealer within 20 miles selling at about £40 under our initial asking price. Relative's minimum sale price about matches the Ebay prices. I fear she may be disappointed!
    From where did she get her valuation?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,654

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
    There are buy it now offers on Ebay ~£70 under our asking price (and not, apparently, selling fast). Also a dealer within 20 miles selling at about £40 under our initial asking price. Relative's minimum sale price about matches the Ebay prices. I fear she may be disappointed!
    From where did she get her valuation?
    I wonder if the relative has picked up on a valuation for insurance? Always on the high, retail dealer, price side - cost of replacement. A realistic valuation, for probate for instance, which focusses on the actual price for selling to e.g. a dealer will be a lot less, of course. Factor of 2 or 3? I'd hope for something in between if selling privately maybe.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
    Bwahahah !

    Yes, we DO still need cash !!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    edited January 31

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
    There are buy it now offers on Ebay ~£70 under our asking price (and not, apparently, selling fast). Also a dealer within 20 miles selling at about £40 under our initial asking price. Relative's minimum sale price about matches the Ebay prices. I fear she may be disappointed!
    From where did she get her valuation?
    I wonder whether it was Ebay :hushed: given it was the first thing to come up on Google and a pretty close match. Although they have been collectors of this particular kind and brand of item for probably 15-20 years (it's a vase) so probably have - or think they have - some idea.
  • Interesting poll of a hypothetical three-way race between Trump, Biden and Haley:

    Trump: 42%
    Biden: 37%
    Haley: 12%

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/january-2024-national-poll-trump-and-biden-remain-neck-and-neck-in-likely-rematch/

    Haley gains nothing from a third party run. Won’t happen.
    As I've said repeatedly, not only will the defeated GOP candidates not run a third-party campaign: they can't run a third party campaign. Sore-loser laws and filing deadlines mean it is literally impossible to do so unless the majority of states change their laws to allow it, which obviously they won't.

    https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1632783128170201088

    Interesting poll of a hypothetical three-way race between Trump, Biden and Haley:

    Trump: 42%
    Biden: 37%
    Haley: 12%

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/january-2024-national-poll-trump-and-biden-remain-neck-and-neck-in-likely-rematch/

    Haley gains nothing from a third party run. Won’t happen.
    As I've said repeatedly, not only will the defeated GOP candidates not run a third-party campaign: they can't run a third party campaign. Sore-loser laws and filing deadlines mean it is literally impossible to do so unless the majority of states change their laws to allow it, which obviously they won't.

    https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1632783128170201088
    Filing deadlines, I agree.

    But on "sore losers", I understand only Texas (a big one admittedly) and South Dakota purport to apply sore loser laws to Presidential elections, and they'd probably lose a serious legal challenge on the matter. Quite a lot of losing primary candidates have in fact stood and been on the Presidential ballot in states with sore loser laws - e.g. John Anderson in 1980 (GOP/Independent), Lyndon LaRouche in 1992 (Democrat/Independent), and Gary Johnson (GOP/Libertarian) in 2012.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    edited January 31

    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Use eBay. I wouldn't trust FB.

    That said, some time ago someone was selling a smart TV near to me pm FB at a good price so I said I'd buy it. Why are you selling I asked - he has a larger one, was the reply. Like an idiot I suggested the station car park for the handover so there was no way to know whether the TV worked (it did, perfectly).

    Anyway, since that time I have noticed many TVs for sale on FB by the same seller.

    Ho hum.
    Ebay has its own issues though - buyer is always right.

    A few years back I sold a brand new kids bike on Ebay. Posted it, buyer claimed there were parts missing (there were not, as became apparent on return). Buyer initiated return via Ebay. I had to cough for the outward and return postage and give a full refund, ended up about £30 down with a bike that was now open box rather than BNIB. No recourse other than to report buyer, which I did. Not a scam per se, buyer presumably just changed mind and didn't fancy paying the return postage. But the scope for similar issues here is off-putting - buyer dislikes, claims broken etc and returns, no recourse. We'll probably do a collection only Ebay option, but even then not entirely safe.

    Tempted to take it to a dealer ourselves and just pass on the sale price (but would be almost certainly lower than the relative is looking for).

    ETA: Re your story, at least is someone ever nicks your telly you'll be able to recover it for a reasonable fee :wink:
    Not sure what the collectables are but you can sell pretty much anything on Vinted nowadays to quite high values (eg Tom Ford stuff £2k plus) and there’s a fair bit of protection tor both parties. The scammers tend to be on the selling side in my experience.
    I hadn't realised Vinted did things that weren't clothing - I see now that they do, will check it out, thanks. It's a vase.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
    There are buy it now offers on Ebay ~£70 under our asking price (and not, apparently, selling fast). Also a dealer within 20 miles selling at about £40 under our initial asking price. Relative's minimum sale price about matches the Ebay prices. I fear she may be disappointed!
    From where did she get her valuation?
    I wonder if the relative has picked up on a valuation for insurance? Always on the high, retail dealer, price side - cost of replacement. A realistic valuation, for probate for instance, which focusses on the actual price for selling to e.g. a dealer will be a lot less, of course. Factor of 2 or 3? I'd hope for something in between if selling privately maybe.
    Could also be. As a whole - and some individual items, probably - they'd need to specified on the policy I would guess.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732
    edited January 31

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Re fertility

    I managed to knock out two kids, somehow, amidst the chaos of my life. I never really lived with either of the mothers - in the first instance we tried but failed within months; the second woman didn't even want to try

    And yet even then the responsibilties severely impinged my life for a while, and the whole thing has been horrifically expensive. Albeit now I see it as absolutely worth it, despite all the pain and hassle. The only thing I can really compare it too is Brexit

    So I can totally understand why young people don't want their own personal Brexit. However that does mean the human species will die out

    The predominant feature of Western culture today is me me me me me..

    Anything that might involve any sense of duty, sacrifice or service is dismissed as the individual being a bit of a mug or even sneered at and frowned upon. We are encouraged to have and take whatever we want, whenever we want it, and damn right too, and we don't owe anyone anything or have any obligations to anyone.

    And, thus, a secret emptiness creeps into people's lives.
    If that was true, I doubt there'd be much of a volunteer or charity sectors in the country.
    It's incredible to me how we can have both such a large welfare state in this country and such a big need for charity/volunteer services. I can understand the need for one or the other, but not both at the same time. The whole point of the establishment of the welfare state was supposed to be to largely supersede the need for charity.
    Arguably there are too many small charities. Many seem to originate in a personal tragedy (someone is murdered with a knife, family sets up a Charity in the their name. Someone dies of a rare cancer, family sets up a charity in their name etc).

    I think these charities are serving a purpose of helping the families feel better, but as actual charities, I'm less convinced.

    I also see an awful lot of charities attached to the teat of the public purse - at which point they are not really charities at all, rather they are providers of X for the commissioning body.
    Big charities are run by paid professionals, which many object to, so give to smaller charities where no-one is paid even if the net result is uncoordinated duplication at best to a complete shambles at worst (and that's not counting the Captain Tom debacle).
    Mrs Flatlander is a trustee on a small charity which is a bit shambolic at times, mainly because she doesn't have time to sort it out properly and the original founder's family isn't really up to the job.

    It manages some land and the land is still there and not trashed, so in that sense it still works despite everything.

    The large organisation for this kind of thing would be a local Wildlife Trust. Unfortunately they aren't really interested in small pieces of land - even when part of a larger whole - as they are difficult to fund.

    As an example, they (the Wildlife Trust) were recently offered a piece of land (limestone grassland) with an important collection of rare plants but refused the gift as the site was apparently too small. Presumably this wouldn't attract enough funding from DEFRA for High Level Stewardship (or whatever the equivalent to this will be) and thus there would not be enough income to pay the staff who would have to manage it.

    There's definitely a role for the small charity that can deal with fiddling small change and not have to pay a Chief Executive.


    On the general 'civic society' front, I have found that a lot of local clubs and societies have declined or folded or now have age profiles above 70.
    This is unsurprising, though I believe small local organisations, groups etc are critical to the good running of communities, especially but not only in more rural areas.

    As to why people may be reluctant to commit to unpaid and unappreciated drudgery, Google "Charity trustee risks" and have a look at the 7 pages of Charity Commission advice on trustee liability, or the 33 pages on risk management.

    Incidentally huge numbers of people will be trustees without even knowing they are, for example many CoE PCC members have no idea what they are taking on, believing its main task (as it often appears) is to organise the coffee rota and throw away 500 page documents on gays.
    Exactly. It's one thing being responsible for one's actions, but quite another to risk the family house on some incompetent's behaviour.

    It doesn't have to be a trustee who is put off. I was once asked by a civic society to co-lead a field outing over some fairly rough ground. Liability insurance for accidents is absolutely the norm for such events and is easily obtained. But the organiser wouldn't do it even when we pointed it out - so we wouldn't do it. Else we'd have been personally liable for any accidents/injuries.
    Trustee liability is a worry, although making sure suitable insurance is in place is one job that doesn't get left to anyone shambolic.

    It seems that you have less liability as a business owner than as a trustee of a charity. This must be wrong.
    I think there are a couple of useful things to note from the CofE PCCs as parish trustees point, there.

    Firstly, as someone interested in such and as a former PCC member, I cannot recall any examples of PCC members who have been found liable as charity trustees for any problems. I am sure there are some, but they would normally be all over national media using their "horrific problems in Church of England" headline function key. There are something like 10-20 PCC members in each of around 5-10k parishes.

    Secondly, the importance of support for trustees of small charities. PCC members can access quite extensive expertise and backup should they require it, as the setup is that PCCs are viewed in some ways as parts of larger organisations at Diocese level. Were I a trustee of a small charity, I would want to put support systems in place for myself - perhaps via individual membership of a support organisation, or set up a mentoring relationship with an acquaintance experienced as a trustee.

    Having said that, I'd certainly agree that some do not know what they are taking on - Anglican parishes can be complex, and reasonably large organisations. It is not unusual to end up as a stakeholder or client in projects costing several million.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 18,981

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,129
    Sandpit said:

    kamski said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    Given current odds on Trump winning are a little above evens, what do you think the odds should be, if everyone is currently totally underestimating Trump?

    Of course it's possible Trump will win, I doubt decisively (depending on how you define it), I'd guess it's going to be close either way. There's a long way to go but Biden has a bit more potential to improve his position than Trump so far as I can tell

    Also, if Trump is jailed ahead of the election (unlikely) will it be because he is a 'political opponent', or will it be because he has committed crimes? Do you think there should be blanket immunity from any kind of prosecution for anyone running for election?
    I think Trump’s about 60/40 to win at the moment, and I’m doing my best to follow a variety of news sources in the US.

    Any criminal action against Trump will be portrayed as politically motivated by his supporters, which isn’t helped by the civil cases that have clear political motivations.

    Unless he’s actually in prison on Election Day, I suspect he wins.
    Fair points, as far as they go - though 60/40 Trump doesn't seem far off the general consensus so maybe 'everyone totally underestimating Trump' was a bit of an exaggeration?

    Might be worth considering how Trump reacts to court decisions against him - of course he will play the victim, but too much raving and threats of coming after his opponents once he's president might put a few independents off don't you think? Especially if he repeats his legal theory that US Presidents have immunity from murdering political opponents...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565

    nico679 said:

    It looks like a pretty good deal for NI .

    One issue though is EU law . What happens if the NI assembly vote against a new EU law , how does this effect their access to the EU market ?

    It does look like the EU have made some concessions. It’s amazing what happens when you build trust and don’t continually threaten them as in the Johnson years .

    Unfortunately for Sunak this won’t move the polls because the vast majority of the public couldn’t care less about NI .

    Windsor agreement and fanfare around it did move the polls initially, part of the Tory polling spring recovery last year. Even though it did have Sunak saying the most stupid thing of his Premiership, so far: you lucky people in NI are in the greatest position in the whole world, in the UK market and EU market simultaneously - even though I’m selling this to you as wonderful, I actively took the rest of UK out of this arrangement myself.

    In fact I recall my posts on PB from a year ago, as a lone sceptic if that from Sunak’s own lips is the definition of the Windsor Agreement, then it’s absolutely insane he is gaining in the polls from signing it. Because is it not an absolutely bonkers thing to sell to the people of NI with the rest of the UK listening in to him selling it like that?

    As support for BREXIT, or at least the feeling it’s been implemented well and is going well, has fallen away - it’s probably been helped on its way by the Windsor Agreement particularly the way Rishi sold it.
    I think if the NI Assembly vote against a new EU law, then that's the NI Assembly choosing to collapse the whole deal, a "nuclear option", but the point is, it's up to them, not anyone else. The presumption, I believe, is that you'd never get such a vote passed because you wouldn't get cross-community agreement for it.
    Am I the only one who remembers that the people of NI voted 56% to 44% to REMAIN in the EU?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,654

    nico679 said:

    It looks like a pretty good deal for NI .

    One issue though is EU law . What happens if the NI assembly vote against a new EU law , how does this effect their access to the EU market ?

    It does look like the EU have made some concessions. It’s amazing what happens when you build trust and don’t continually threaten them as in the Johnson years .

    Unfortunately for Sunak this won’t move the polls because the vast majority of the public couldn’t care less about NI .

    Windsor agreement and fanfare around it did move the polls initially, part of the Tory polling spring recovery last year. Even though it did have Sunak saying the most stupid thing of his Premiership, so far: you lucky people in NI are in the greatest position in the whole world, in the UK market and EU market simultaneously - even though I’m selling this to you as wonderful, I actively took the rest of UK out of this arrangement myself.

    In fact I recall my posts on PB from a year ago, as a lone sceptic if that from Sunak’s own lips is the definition of the Windsor Agreement, then it’s absolutely insane he is gaining in the polls from signing it. Because is it not an absolutely bonkers thing to sell to the people of NI with the rest of the UK listening in to him selling it like that?

    As support for BREXIT, or at least the feeling it’s been implemented well and is going well, has fallen away - it’s probably been helped on its way by the Windsor Agreement particularly the way Rishi sold it.
    I think if the NI Assembly vote against a new EU law, then that's the NI Assembly choosing to collapse the whole deal, a "nuclear option", but the point is, it's up to them, not anyone else. The presumption, I believe, is that you'd never get such a vote passed because you wouldn't get cross-community agreement for it.
    Am I the only one who remembers that the people of NI voted 56% to 44% to REMAIN in the EU?
    No! And all this is being watched with interest in Scotland, too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,072
    XKCD finally gets onto one of my bugbears:

    https://xkcd.com/2888/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565

    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    He lost the popular vote in 2016!
    Irrelevant. He won the election.
    Because the smallest states have more Electors per head of voting population.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 17,808
    edited January 31

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    Only one paleo-environmentalist anarcho-primitivist ever gained prominence, and he died in jail after a bombing campaign.

    https://www.sealionpress.co.uk/post/other-ideologies-primitivism
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 17,808

    XKCD finally gets onto one of my bugbears:

    https://xkcd.com/2888/

    This is why you need a diff in your car's axle.

    https://xkcd.com/2882/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    And, yet, he's one of the savviest and wiliest debaters on here, and never loses his temper or gets personal.

    A lot of the frustration people have with him is because they can't lay a finger on him.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    edited January 31

    XKCD finally gets onto one of my bugbears:

    https://xkcd.com/2888/

    Heh. Sure Randall has covered the survey foot before though. You clearly don't pay enough attention (or I misremember!) :wink:

    ETA: Haven't been able to find an earlier reference though, so maybe it's me!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732
    edited January 31
    For anyone wanting off-topic listening, an interesting biographical video on Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku, the head of the Imperial Japanese Navy in WW2.

    By Drachinifel, so well researched, and may include occasional transformations of Japanese words into incidents of collateral damage by mispronunciation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTQ3ud-CN7w
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695

    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    He lost the popular vote in 2016!
    Irrelevant. He won the election.
    Because the smallest states have more Electors per head of voting population.
    So what? It's the United States of America that elect the President, and they do so via those states.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 24,726

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,308
    edited January 31
    Selebian said:

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.

    The next stage of this scam is to normally pivot to sending a courier to collect the item, and for some reason they ask if you could pay for the courier and they can reimburse you - at which point you enter your bank details online and lose all your money.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,506
    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    I think Trump is going to get a greater proportion of the vote than ever before, with particularly strong performances in the Southern states: California, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada.

    Which means he's in prime shape to capture two crucial swing states: Arizona and Nevada.

    The problem for him is that the big driver of dissatisfaction in Biden is illegal immigration, and its salience drops very sharply with latitude. A few weeks ago, I posted polls - by a Republican pollster - for Michigan and Texas. In Texas, immigration was the number one concern of voters. In Michigan, it didn't even make the top ten. (Actually, that's not quite true, at number nine there was a concern about a lack of people to fill jobs.)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,647
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
    Bwahahah !

    Yes, we DO still need cash !!
    Talking of cash I had a big surprise yesterday. I haven’t had cash on me since Covid started, (nothing ideological just stopped using it when Covid hit and realised I never needed it). On Saturday a friend who owed me a couple of hundred quid from the week before when he had to leave a dinner early and I carried his bill gave me the money in cash.

    Yesterday I was passing an HSBC and decided I would pay the cash into my nephew’s account as he’s at University and thought he would make good use of it.

    It turns out that the cashier refused it as it’s not been permitted to pay cash into another person’s account for about two years. I could pay it into my own account (at another bank) and transfer it online but not by cash.

    I had absolutely no idea of this and didn’t know if it is the same in the UK? If so it’s another downside to cash for the future.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,308

    Ipsos has some very interesting historic charts.

    In yesterday's political monitor it looked at the % that might change their mind on who to vote for.



    Previously the percentage that might change their mind reduced over the term of the parliament - this makes sense as the closer to an election the more certain your vote becomes.

    However since 2019 there has been little change. Why?

    Check the dates on the graph. If we assume the election is in the autumn we're still much further from the election than most of the figures for prior elections. Doesn't look like there's anything unusual about the current figure.
  • Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,654

    I've reported this house for their flagrant breach of the Trade Descriptions Act

    Did it manage to get out?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,196
    ...

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's the insane elements of the PB right, shilling for Trump, that boggles my mind.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,278

    Sandpit said:

    Unless the US copies Russia and Pakistan in jailing political opponents ahead of elections, he’ll be a decisive winner.

    I’m sticking by my theory that everyone is, as in 2016, totally underestimating Trump. There’s tens of millions of Americans who are not better off than they were four years ago.

    He lost the popular vote in 2016!
    Irrelevant. He won the election.
    Because the smallest states have more Electors per head of voting population.
    Yes, we know this. Also because of how votes are distributed, including a massive Dem majority in California.

    But this is all detail, other than to say that Trump can (and in all probability, would) win the election with a small deficit in the popular vote. It might be a stupid system but it is the system.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 24,726

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,243

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    It was Hilary Clinton's deplorables comment that contributed to a lot of this.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,182

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    My wife is the eco-authoritarian. I am easily influenced.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,196

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,907

    XKCD finally gets onto one of my bugbears:

    https://xkcd.com/2888/

    The alt text is on point.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 24,726

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,743

    ...

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's the insane elements of the PB right, shilling for Trump, that boggles my mind.
    You can make a decent case for why GenericRepublican can, even ought to, win. Even, at a stretch, for why Trump is preferable to GenericDemocrat, let alone GeriatricDemocrat.

    What's much harder to explain is why, of the gallery of possible Republicans, all of them pretty right wing, it has to be Trump.

    That does need explaining, and I don't think the explanation would be a nice one.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    It was Hilary Clinton's deplorables comment that contributed to a lot of this.
    Deplorable!

    Hillary = 65,853,514 votes
    Trump = 62,984,828 votes
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075
    boulay said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Sorry to veer off topic so soon, but interested in the PB brains trust on a potential scam.

    My wife is selling a collectable item for an elderly relative. We advised said relative to visit a dealer, but she preferred us to sort it via Facebook/Ebay. It's up on Facebook marketplace for a few £100s, probably about £50-£75 over the going rate to allow for haggling.

    Someone got in touch today and offered the asking price. Very keen, very fast replies. Got location (only town and postcode) and wanted to pay immediately by bank transfer or paypal to collect on Friday. Requested bank/paypal details again after a few minutes non-response while my wife came to talk to me (slight alarm bells ringing for her). After some discussion, we suggested cash on collection, but this was quickly declined due to item being picked up by brother who does not have cash and the person messaging paying for it instead (ignoring the fact that the buyer could simply send the brother the money and the brother go to an ATM a mile or so from our house - if brother has no bank accountit's hard to see why he's in the business of buying relatively expensive collectable items!).

    There are enough alarm bells that we're not shifting:

    1. Facebook profile looks a bit random with not much information
    2. Speed and insistence, definite attempts to rush my wife
    3. No hint of haggling on the price, which is a bit high
    4. Refusal, very quickly, to do cash on collection - which is obviously safer for buyer too, odd to offer to transfer substantial amount of money for something that may not even exist and without having been given a precise address even!
    The thing is, out of curiosity, I do wonder about the angle. Name plus address plus bank details would be enough to fake an authentic looking bank statement and get somewhere with identity fraud, but we have not provided full address (although we would after receipt of the money, although not before, perhaps the next play would be to pressure for that before transfer). On PayPal, the angle seems less clear, but I guess there'd the fake 'money received' email option, possibly with alleged overpayment and a need to 'refund' the accidental overpayment?

    TLDR: It looks dodgy and we're pulling the plug, but I'd like to understand the scam.
    Either you’ve seriously undervalued or there’s something dodgy about your ‘buyer’. And even if you haven’t undervalued the item I still suspect the buyer; my son-in-law does some of this sort of thing and it’s cash or no sale.
    Bwahahah !

    Yes, we DO still need cash !!
    Talking of cash I had a big surprise yesterday. I haven’t had cash on me since Covid started, (nothing ideological just stopped using it when Covid hit and realised I never needed it). On Saturday a friend who owed me a couple of hundred quid from the week before when he had to leave a dinner early and I carried his bill gave me the money in cash.

    Yesterday I was passing an HSBC and decided I would pay the cash into my nephew’s account as he’s at University and thought he would make good use of it.

    It turns out that the cashier refused it as it’s not been permitted to pay cash into another person’s account for about two years. I could pay it into my own account (at another bank) and transfer it online but not by cash.

    I had absolutely no idea of this and didn’t know if it is the same in the UK? If so it’s another downside to cash for the future.
    One great way to dispose of cash is to go racing. It never fails. On course bookies love the stuff.

    for those who need guidance on how to give it away:

    "At Cheltenham Races you can use cash to place bets while on course. Bookmakers typically accept cash for wagering on the races, allowing racegoers to place bets directly with them. There are also betting facilities, such as betting windows or booths, where you can use cash to place your bets on-site."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    "Now you're talking semantics. What if I told you insane was working fifty hours a week in some office for fifty years... at the end of which they tell you to piss off? Ending up in some retirement village... hoping to die before suffering the indignity of trying to make it to the toilet on time. Wouldn't you consider that to be insane?"
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 6,751
    With respect to the recent discussion of population and numbers of children being had: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67999028
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,399
    algarkirk said:

    "At Cheltenham Races you can use cash to place bets while on course. Bookmakers typically accept cash for wagering on the races, allowing racegoers to place bets directly with them. There are also betting facilities, such as betting windows or booths, where you can use cash to place your bets on-site."

    Cheltenham is a cashless venue*

    *APART FROM THE BOOKIES
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    "He's a font of misplaced rage. Name your cliché; mother held him too much or not enough, last picked at kickball, late night sneaky uncle, whatever. Now he's so angry moments of levity actually cause him pain; gives him headaches. Happiness, for that gentleman, hurts."
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 6,751

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    I watched considerable amounts of the Dukes of Hazzard as a child. I am unclear why voters think Trump is one of the Duke Boys when he's clearly Boss Hogg. (Sheriff Rosco P. Coltrane is either Alina Habba or Rudy Giuliani. (I realise Alina Habba thinks she's Daisy Duke.))
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,712

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,196

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    I watched considerable amounts of the Dukes of Hazzard as a child. I am unclear why voters think Trump is one of the Duke Boys when he's clearly Boss Hogg. (Sheriff Rosco P. Coltrane is either Alina Habba or Rudy Giuliani. (I realise Alina Habba thinks she's Daisy Duke.))
    Yes it was almost a documentary 40 years before it's time.

    John Schneider (Luke Duke) I believe is a big MAGA supporter. Apologies if he is not.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,182
    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    "At Cheltenham Races you can use cash to place bets while on course. Bookmakers typically accept cash for wagering on the races, allowing racegoers to place bets directly with them. There are also betting facilities, such as betting windows or booths, where you can use cash to place your bets on-site."

    Cheltenham is a cashless venue*

    *APART FROM THE BOOKIES
    So you are unable to spend your winnings on a celebratory bottle of fizz!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 10,931

    Trump is already a loser and I think he will lose again, even if not convicted.

    ...

    It's totally wishful thinking to think that Trump will be stopped by legal issues. He's consolidating his lead, and by the time it comes to November, voters will be making an existential choice about the future of the USA, not passing judgment on whether Trump is "fit" for office.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

    Wow, a pro- Trump post from @williamglenn . Now there's a surprise.

    Oh and the existential threat is not Biden, it's Trump.
    The William Glenn Bot is in clear need of a reboot. So far, we have had William Glenn The Left Liberal Eurofederalist; William Green The Rightwing Brexiteer; William Glenn The Maga Trumpian. There are probably several William Glenns that I have missed, over the years.

    What could be next, I wonder? An authoritarian misanthropic paleo-environmentalist nativist in the Sandy Rentool mould?
    The fact is that the American right do not share the almost universally-held view of Trump in the UK. To fail to understand this and decline, on a moral basis, even to seek greater understanding about it, isn't going to make for very good political bets.
    The insane elements of the American right don't, but plenty of sane American right people do, like Haley etc

    That Trump is barely getting half of the vote in New Hampshire when he's effectively presumptive nominee already is ridiculously awful, but matches what an awful candidate he is.

    But you can't win an election with your own zealots alone, you need to carry the middle too. And Trump is toxic to most American centrists too.

    Which is why Trump lost last time, and why he'll most likely lose again this time.
    It's fairly pig-ignorant to classify large swathes of any population as 'insane' - they're not clinically insane, plenty are intelligent and highly educated, but they are operating on a different paradigm, with a different perception of the world, than you or I. You prefer not to engage your brain, and that's fine. But as an amateur bystander, I'd say your lack of curiosity will affect your betting.
    Have you never seen the Dukes of Hazzard?
    No.
    You've missed out. Must have been my favourite TV show when I was a kid. Catherine Bach in cut off denim shorts, a 1969 Dodge Charger named after a Confederate general, never ending car chases down the back roads of Georgia, just good ol boys, never doing no harm... Innocent times. No doubt the Woke Police would have it shut down today!
    Boss Hogg for president!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,506
    MattW said:

    Either today or tomorrow we should get the result from the New York court on "disgorgement" for the series of fraudulent activities that the Trump organisation has already been found guilty of. Trump is going to be out of pocket to the tune of $300m - $500m. He'll say, as with the $83m defamation award "I will appeal". However, that requires a bond for the full amount to be put up. Maybe he has a friendly billionaire prepared to put that amount at risk (as the awards will very likely be upheld at appeal). And maybe he don't.

    At the kindest, the Trump organisation was riddled with incompetence that should politically debar somebody from holding the office of America's CEO.

    (There's also a $50m "loan" that has been discovered - a "loan" that risks further criminal charges being laid. It was discovered by the person put in charge of the Trump business empire from making transfers that could frustrate the recovery of the disgorgement payments. When he is on the media railing against that person making work to justify her charges, remember the appointment of that person was approved by Trump.)

    There is also one of the latest faceplants of Mr Chump's Lawyer Alina Habbadabbadoo ("I want to be like yoo-who-whooo") who launched an attack on the Judge in the NY Defamation Case alleging that an inappropriate mentoring relationship between the Judge and E Jean Carroll's lawyer meant the Judge was compromised and the whole thing should be thrown out, and that she had become aware of it after an article appeared in the NY Post.

    Said mentoring relationship being that 30 years ago the Judge had been a partner at a 1000-strong firm, whilst the Lawyer had been a Junior there for a couple of years.

    The Lawyer slapped it down as BS.

    And the article contains content explaining what Habbadabbadoo planned to do, so she knew about it.

    Which means that La "I would rather be pretty than smart; I can fake being smart" Trumpette would seem to have deceived the Court. Again. Having already been sanctioned multiple times.

    The Judge can withdraw her right to practise in NY.

    Oooops. Or 5-dimensional chess?

    As an aside, that is typical Trump behaviour that eats away at our democracy.

    Make a baseless allegation: one completely unsupported by any facts. And sure, it gets slapped down. But the right people (Trump's base) hear the original allegation, not the fact that it was - in essence - a lie.

    You cannot unring a bell.

    Millions of people will now believe that the whole process was a sham, involving collusion between a prosectutor and her old mentor. Even though there is not a shred of truth in it.
This discussion has been closed.