Scottish independence hasn’t gone away you know – politicalbetting.com

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Scottish independence hasn’t gone away you know – politicalbetting.com

New Scottish poll in The Sunday Times.Findings pretty bad for the SNP and their leaders but No has just a 1% lead.https://t.co/Hx6n6MDL6K pic.twitter.com/1Ssjf3gqH8

Read the full story here

Fishing

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

WillG

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

Remainers on here were absolutely certain - and gleeful - that London would no longer be the pre-eminent European financial centre. The only question was whether it would be Frankfurt or Paris or Dublin that became the new #1.

Scott_xP

Fishing said:

Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy

Nope

It is worth re-watching this. Almost every, single prediction is wrong. Line for line.

https://x.com/damocrat/status/1749897648608366792?s=20

Fishing

Scott_xP said:

Fishing said:

Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy

Nope

It is worth re-watching this. Almost every, single prediction is wrong. Line for line.

https://x.com/damocrat/status/1749897648608366792?s=20

Still waiting for the 5 million unemployed. Lots of Remainers (present company excepted) seem really annoyed that didn't happen.

Nigelb

Trump’s $50 Million Mystery Debt Looks Like ‘Tax Evasion’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-dollar50-million-mystery-debt-looks-like-tax-evasion/

Republicans in Congress just spent the last few months investigating a private individual over far smaller amounts.

Nigelb

Trump Suggests 98% of His Supporters Would Fail Cognitive Decline Test
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1751428654419370027

Cicero

WillG said:

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

Remainers on here were absolutely certain - and gleeful - that London would no longer be the pre-eminent European financial centre. The only question was whether it would be Frankfurt or Paris or Dublin that became the new #1.

Actually it is, increasingly, Dubai. I wouldn't be too optimistic for the longer term in the City unless there is some serious reforms.

rcs1000

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

You're comparing specific predictions by specific persons - George Robertson and Sion Simon - with an amorphous set of predictions by various people in the Remain campaign. And then you're complaining that various predictions from various people aren't exactly the same?

If you want to make a comparison, grab something said by a specific Remain campaigner, ideally something both pithy and wildly wrong, and use that.

Otherwise you come over as a bit obsessed.

rcs1000

230 ahead... not quite enough, but a pretty impressive England performance.

DecrepiterJohnL

Tory MPs are shaving their beards off because they have have been told it is a turn off to voters
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/25548637/tory-mps-shaving-beard-turn-off-voters/

If you hurry, you can get 14/1 against a Conservative majority government.

DecrepiterJohnL

Tories are 'rigging General Election rules' as voting watchdog slams reform attempts
...
The Electoral Commission, which oversees election law in the UK, said a move by the government to set out “priorities” for the body amounted to “one team telling the umpire how to enforce the rules of the game.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-rigging-general-election-rules-31984142

swing_voter

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Tories are 'rigging General Election rules' as voting watchdog slams reform attempts
...
The Electoral Commission, which oversees election law in the UK, said a move by the government to set out “priorities” for the body amounted to “one team telling the umpire how to enforce the rules of the game.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-rigging-general-election-rules-31984142

I must admit, its a thin story, I am more concerned at how the London mayoral electoral system was changed to FPTP as evidence of fiddling....

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

230 ahead... not quite enough, but a pretty impressive England performance.

West Indies have given the Aussies a hell of a fright too.

They’ll still lose, but it’s impressive. Not least six wickets for a bowler with a broken toe.

Edit - seems it’s heavy bruising rather than a break, but still impressive.

JosiasJessop

"UNRWA claims: UN agency condemns aid halt over alleged help for Hamas attacks"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68119268

"It is shocking to see a suspension of funds to the agency in reaction to allegations against a small group of staff, especially given the immediate action that UNRWA took by terminating their contracts and asking for a transparent independent investigation. "

There's so much to be said about this, little of it good. Sacking staff *before* an investigation sort-of prejudices the investigation, doesn't it? And what are the terms of the investigation - is it just into the specific direct allegations, or more into the way UNRWA was working in Gaza? And on the other hand, is it valid to stop funds to an organisation that is apparently doing so much good, even if some of what its staff do is bad?

Mexicanpete

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

Get over it. You won!

ydoethur

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

230 ahead... not quite enough, but a pretty impressive England performance.

West Indies have given the Aussies a hell of a fright too.

They’ll still lose, but it’s impressive. Not least six wickets for a bowler with a broken toe.

Edit - seems it’s heavy bruising rather than a break, but still impressive.

I"ve still got it...

Edit - spare a thought for Steve Smith, carrying his bat for 91.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

230 ahead... not quite enough, but a pretty impressive England performance.

West Indies have given the Aussies a hell of a fright too.

They’ll still lose, but it’s impressive. Not least six wickets for a bowler with a broken toe.

Edit - seems it’s heavy bruising rather than a break, but still impressive.

I"ve still got it...

Edit - spare a thought for Steve Smith, carrying his bat for 91.

No, he’s a fucking cheat who should have been given a lifetime ban.

ydoethur

That's the first Test West Indies have won in Aus since February 1997.

And the first time they've won at the Gabba since 1988.

Mexicanpete

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Tories are 'rigging General Election rules' as voting watchdog slams reform attempts
...
The Electoral Commission, which oversees election law in the UK, said a move by the government to set out “priorities” for the body amounted to “one team telling the umpire how to enforce the rules of the game.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-rigging-general-election-rules-31984142

I suspect these issues are being wildly underestimated. If the ex pats are shared around marginals, that could be effective for the Conservatives. I suppose we will only know after the event how effective rejecting voters for insufficient photo ID works. Of course the irony remains, that in person impersonation was never a problem whereas postal voter fraud is, and no photo ID is required.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

230 ahead... not quite enough, but a pretty impressive England performance.

West Indies have given the Aussies a hell of a fright too.

They’ll still lose, but it’s impressive. Not least six wickets for a bowler with a broken toe.

Edit - seems it’s heavy bruising rather than a break, but still impressive.

I"ve still got it...

Edit - spare a thought for Steve Smith, carrying his bat for 91.

No, he’s a fucking cheat who should have been given a lifetime ban.

I didn't say it had to be a charitable thought, so that still qualifies...

ydoethur

I wonder if Pat Cummins regrets declaring behind on first innings now?

StillWaters

Cicero said:

WillG said:

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

Remainers on here were absolutely certain - and gleeful - that London would no longer be the pre-eminent European financial centre. The only question was whether it would be Frankfurt or Paris or Dublin that became the new #1.

Actually it is, increasingly, Dubai. I wouldn't be too optimistic for the longer term in the
City unless there is some serious reforms.

It really isn’t

StillWaters

JosiasJessop said:

"UNRWA claims: UN agency condemns aid halt over alleged help for Hamas attacks"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68119268

"It is shocking to see a suspension of funds to the agency in reaction to allegations against a small group of staff, especially given the immediate action that UNRWA took by terminating their contracts and asking for a transparent independent investigation. "

There's so much to be said about this, little of it good. Sacking staff *before* an investigation sort-of prejudices the investigation, doesn't it? And what are the terms of the investigation - is it just into the specific direct allegations, or more into the way UNRWA was working in Gaza? And on the other hand, is it valid to stop funds to an organisation that is apparently doing so much good, even if some of what its staff do is bad?

It’s a suspension of funds not the stopping of them permanently. The suspicion is that those who were sacked are scapegoats.

UNRWA vehicles were used by the Oct 7 terrorists. That requires cooperation. The question is how high the rot goes.

It was also pretty disturbing to hear UNRWA’s spokeswoman on the radio this morning describing the suspension of funds as a “collective punishment” for the Palestinian people. That’s a very specific term in this context.

DecrepiterJohnL

Mexicanpete said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Tories are 'rigging General Election rules' as voting watchdog slams reform attempts
...
The Electoral Commission, which oversees election law in the UK, said a move by the government to set out “priorities” for the body amounted to “one team telling the umpire how to enforce the rules of the game.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-rigging-general-election-rules-31984142

I suspect these issues are being wildly underestimated. If the ex pats are shared around marginals, that could be effective for the Conservatives. I suppose we will only know after the event how effective rejecting voters for insufficient photo ID works. Of course the irony remains, that in person impersonation was never a problem whereas postal voter fraud is, and no photo ID is required.

Ironically, there is a suspicion that photoID backfired against the Conservatives at the locals, as their older voters and Red Wall voters are less likely to have ID. I think some PB Tories did foresee this.

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Tories are 'rigging General Election rules' as voting watchdog slams reform attempts
...
The Electoral Commission, which oversees election law in the UK, said a move by the government to set out “priorities” for the body amounted to “one team telling the umpire how to enforce the rules of the game.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-rigging-general-election-rules-31984142

I suspect these issues are being wildly underestimated. If the ex pats are shared around marginals, that could be effective for the Conservatives. I suppose we will only know after the event how effective rejecting voters for insufficient photo ID works. Of course the irony remains, that in person impersonation was never a problem whereas postal voter fraud is, and no photo ID is required.

Ironically, there is a suspicion that photoID backfired against the Conservatives at the locals, as their older voters and Red Wall voters are less likely to have ID. I think some PB Tories did foresee this.

They're also, I would say, more likely to be reflexively suspicious of being ordered to show ID. Most younger people are quite used to it, if only because they have to show it to buy alcohol and get into nightclubs.

OldKingCole

Mexicanpete said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Tories are 'rigging General Election rules' as voting watchdog slams reform attempts
...
The Electoral Commission, which oversees election law in the UK, said a move by the government to set out “priorities” for the body amounted to “one team telling the umpire how to enforce the rules of the game.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-rigging-general-election-rules-31984142

I suspect these issues are being wildly underestimated. If the ex pats are shared around marginals, that could be effective for the Conservatives. I suppose we will only know after the event how effective rejecting voters for insufficient photo ID works. Of course the irony remains, that in person impersonation was never a problem whereas postal voter fraud is, and no photo ID is required.

My ex-pat son, who is one of those affected states that his most important priority for Britain is to get rid of the conservatives!
I somehow don’t think he’ll be voting for Priti Patel.

TheScreamingEagles

StillWaters said:

Cicero said:

WillG said:

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

Remainers on here were absolutely certain - and gleeful - that London would no longer be the pre-eminent European financial centre. The only question was whether it would be Frankfurt or Paris or Dublin that became the new #1.

Actually it is, increasingly, Dubai. I wouldn't be too optimistic for the longer term in the
City unless there is some serious reforms.

It really isn’t

Indeed, and I say that as a patriotic Remainer.

Biggest threat to Financial Services and the City is a government that threatens to castrate an independent judiciary.

Why do people like doing business in the UK? We have courts that will put the government in their box when they overreach.

ydoethur

That's how he earned the nickname Nohit Sharma.

But he's still done enough for India to amble home.

Dura_Ace

Scottish Independence has gone away for a while as there is no coherent political structure around which it can happen. The SNP totally wasted Johnson and his broad-spectrum despicability the Sturgeon put the whole project in the ditch.

Independence will be back at some point, and I hope they get it, but I doubt it will be soon.

JosiasJessop

StillWaters said:

JosiasJessop said:

"UNRWA claims: UN agency condemns aid halt over alleged help for Hamas attacks"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68119268

"It is shocking to see a suspension of funds to the agency in reaction to allegations against a small group of staff, especially given the immediate action that UNRWA took by terminating their contracts and asking for a transparent independent investigation. "

There's so much to be said about this, little of it good. Sacking staff *before* an investigation sort-of prejudices the investigation, doesn't it? And what are the terms of the investigation - is it just into the specific direct allegations, or more into the way UNRWA was working in Gaza? And on the other hand, is it valid to stop funds to an organisation that is apparently doing so much good, even if some of what its staff do is bad?

It’s a suspension of funds not the stopping of them permanently. The suspicion is that those who were sacked are scapegoats.

UNRWA vehicles were used by the Oct 7 terrorists. That requires cooperation. The question is how high the rot goes.

It was also pretty disturbing to hear UNRWA’s spokeswoman on the radio this morning describing the suspension of funds as a “collective punishment” for the Palestinian people. That’s a very specific term in this context.

Such organisations have to remain independent of the local governments, with which they work. The problem is that local governments can make it so that the only way they can work, is by doing it the way the local government insists.

At which point, there is a great risk that the organisation is 'captured' by the local government. There are many accusations that that's exactly what's happened in Gaza - that Hamas essentially run many of the aid organisations on the ground.

Are the accusations true? Who knows: but this latest scandal certainly give the accusations legs.

algarkirk

Dura_Ace said:

Scottish Independence has gone away for a while as there is no coherent political structure around which it can happen. The SNP totally wasted Johnson and his broad-spectrum despicability the Sturgeon put the whole project in the ditch.

Independence will be back at some point, and I hope they get it, but I doubt it will be soon.

If Scottish independence cannot get a sustained and clear majority under this government it is hard to see the circumstances under which it shall.

And we have not heard much recently about elections being a proxy referendum over independence. Is it possible that the SNP meant this only in a Trumpian sense - it counts if you win but not if you lose?

algarkirk

70-3

SouthamObserver

It's 10 years since the referendum. That's getting close to half a generation. But it's also been 10 years of English nationalist Tory government in Westminster. If the Tories hold on in power after the next GE, I think it's highly likely that support for Scottish independence will surge and that it will also become Labour policy to support a referendum while opposing separation. However, if there is a change of government - and especially if we see a number of Scottish MPs in the new one - support for indy may well decline. That's certainly what has happened in Catalonia since 2018. Catalan politicians matter in Madrid now, so there is less of a case for a divorce.

OnlyLivingBoy

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Taz

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

FBpE remain especially and they persist to this day.

I voted remain, reluctantly, not because of any of the shit spouted by the diehard remainers that never came to pass.

The EU and Europe is in decline like we are. We all need some visionary leadership to see us through. It won’t come.

Sandpit

Cicero said:

WillG said:

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

Remainers on here were absolutely certain - and gleeful - that London would no longer be the pre-eminent European financial centre. The only question was whether it would be Frankfurt or Paris or Dublin that became the new #1.

Actually it is, increasingly, Dubai. I wouldn't be too optimistic for the longer term in the City unless there is some serious reforms.

Dubai is definitely growing, thanks mostly to the Dubai International Financial Centre - which operates as a free zone under English law - but it’s taking business mostly from European and Asian centres, as well as supporting a rapidly growing Gulf economy, rather than taking much business directly from London.

Taz

Fantastic scenes at the Gabba.

This team failed to qualify for the 50 over World Cup earlier this year.

https://x.com/wisdencricket/status/1751508656728748237?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

StillWaters

TheScreamingEagles said:

StillWaters said:

Cicero said:

WillG said:

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

Remainers on here were absolutely certain - and gleeful - that London would no longer be the pre-eminent European financial centre. The only question was whether it would be Frankfurt or Paris or Dublin that became the new #1.

Actually it is, increasingly, Dubai. I wouldn't be too optimistic for the longer term in the
City unless there is some serious reforms.

It really isn’t

Indeed, and I say that as a patriotic Remainer.

Biggest threat to Financial Services and the City is a government that threatens to castrate an independent judiciary.


Why do people like doing business in the UK? We have courts that will put the government in their box when they overreach.

Language and timezone helps

El_Capitano

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

IanB2

The lead has the same tweet and data twice?

Scottish Indy could paradoxically become a stronger prospect if the link between support for it and voting SNP is broken?

ThomasNashe

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Taz

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

230 ahead... not quite enough, but a pretty impressive England performance.

West Indies have given the Aussies a hell of a fright too.

They’ll still lose, but it’s impressive. Not least six wickets for a bowler with a broken toe.

Edit - seems it’s heavy bruising rather than a break, but still impressive.

I"ve still got it...

Edit - spare a thought for Steve Smith, carrying his bat for 91.

No, he’s a fucking cheat who should have been given a lifetime ban.

But he said sorry and cried on TV……

SouthamObserver

StillWaters said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

StillWaters said:

Cicero said:

WillG said:

Fishing said:

"As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival"

Really? What about the Remainer drivel that leaving the EU would cause a house price crash, 3 million unemployed (or was it 5 million - they never seemed sure?), 100,000 job losses in the City, the disintegration of the Union, nobody wanting to deal with us, horrible discrimination against blacks and gay people who clearly owed all their rights to our EU membership, etc. etc?

(Not that the Leave campaign got everything, or even most things, right either - forecasting is inherently difficult when there are lots of moving parts. But the Remainer scare stories really were in a class of their own for disingenous inaccuracy).

Remainers on here were absolutely certain - and gleeful - that London would no longer be the pre-eminent European financial centre. The only question was whether it would be Frankfurt or Paris or Dublin that became the new #1.

Actually it is, increasingly, Dubai. I wouldn't be too optimistic for the longer term in the
City unless there is some serious reforms.

It really isn’t

Indeed, and I say that as a patriotic Remainer.

Biggest threat to Financial Services and the City is a government that threatens to castrate an independent judiciary.


Why do people like doing business in the UK? We have courts that will put the government in their box when they overreach.

Language and timezone helps

Nowhere near enough without an independent judiciary.

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

The lead has the same tweet and data twice?

Scottish Indy could paradoxically become a stronger prospect if the link between support for it and voting SNP is broken?

But how do you get to a point where a referendum becomes inarguable without Scots voting for parties that back one?

Taz

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

What’s new. Areas like this have been on their own and left to wither for decades now anyway. Treated with barely disguised contempt by politicians across all parties.

It was a major driver of the leave vote in these areas. Economic boom post crash. What economic boom. Areas like these never enjoyed it.

Had prosperity been spread more evenly we would have never voted leave. Still, we did, and remainers need to get over it.

Taz

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

ThomasNashe

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

Sandpit

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

ThomasNashe

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Sandpit

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

Yeah, F*** the Deplorables.

That always worked out well, did no-one learn from events in 2016 both in the UK and US?

SouthamObserver

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

Khan has bee a mediocre mayor at best. It is utterly bizarre that the Tories chose Susan Hall as their candidate. She is his best chance of holding on.

Malmesbury

Nigelb said:

Trump Suggests 98% of His Supporters Would Fail Cognitive Decline Test
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1751428654419370027

There’s an assumption there. “Decline”.

Foxy

Sandpit said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

Yeah, F*** the Deplorables.

That always worked out well, did no-one learn from events in 2016 both in the UK and US?

Certainly not Sunak!

Malmesbury

Sandpit said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

Yeah, F*** the Deplorables.

That always worked out well, did no-one learn from events in 2016 both in the UK and US?

The obvious answer to morale not improving, despite the beatings, is more and harder beatings.

Alternatively, you could try what Biden has been doing in the economy. Actual “Levelling Up”.

Taz

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

The Tories made a similar commitment which evaporated after the Chesham and Amersham by election.

bondegezou

StillWaters said:

JosiasJessop said:

"UNRWA claims: UN agency condemns aid halt over alleged help for Hamas attacks"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68119268

"It is shocking to see a suspension of funds to the agency in reaction to allegations against a small group of staff, especially given the immediate action that UNRWA took by terminating their contracts and asking for a transparent independent investigation. "

There's so much to be said about this, little of it good. Sacking staff *before* an investigation sort-of prejudices the investigation, doesn't it? And what are the terms of the investigation - is it just into the specific direct allegations, or more into the way UNRWA was working in Gaza? And on the other hand, is it valid to stop funds to an organisation that is apparently doing so much good, even if some of what its staff do is bad?

It’s a suspension of funds not the stopping of them permanently. The suspicion is that those who were sacked are scapegoats.

UNRWA vehicles were used by the Oct 7 terrorists. That requires cooperation. The question is how high the rot goes.

It was also pretty disturbing to hear UNRWA’s spokeswoman on the radio this morning describing the suspension of funds as a “collective punishment” for the Palestinian people. That’s a very specific term in this context.

It’s… coincidental that Israel’s allegations towards UNWRA came out just after the ICJ preliminary ruling was issued and was somewhat critical of Israel.

Sandpit

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Starmer has done a bit of talking about the housebuilding side, but I’ll believe it when the houses are built, especially since so much of housing policy is currently devolved locally. His supporters have definitely done a lot of talking about immigration though, how it’s important to have much more of it.

ThomasNashe

SouthamObserver said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

Khan has bee a mediocre mayor at best. It is utterly bizarre that the Tories chose Susan Hall as their candidate. She is his best chance of holding on.

Indeed, it was a long shot that they would come up with a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey, but by golly ... they only went and did it!

Leon

There is a weird inverse relationship - which only appears during major political shifts in Scotland - between support for Indy and support for the SNP

The psychology is this: both are seen as proxies for patriotism. Most Scots are patriotic

So if you don’t do one you’d better do the other, if you’re a patriotic Scot. We saw this after the NO vote in 2014. Support for the Nats might have been expected to collapse; instead it surged and remained incredibly firm and high for nearly a decade

That was patriotic Scots feeling a bit guilty about voting NO and switching to the SNP to prove their Tartan credentials

Now the SNP are falling so those same patriotic Scots express their aspiration for Indy in harmless polls by saying YES

Malmesbury

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Labour will, almost certainly, have a large number of MPs in areas where house building is required.

They will be facing opposition parties slavering at the thought of weaponising the Green-NIMBY-Planning-Circus nexus.

Starmer will have a hundred voices telling him to water down any plans. His MPs plus theTreasury (falling house prices would cause a variety of short term issues, and in the longer term would be a pensions problem) plus house building companies etc etc.

ThomasNashe

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Starmer has done a bit of talking about the housebuilding side, but I’ll believe it when the houses are built, especially since so much of housing policy is currently devolved locally. His supporters have definitely done a lot of talking about immigration though, how it’s important to have much more of it.

Starmer and Cooper don't seem to be taking a particularly permissive approach to immigration.

DecrepiterJohnL

SouthamObserver said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

Khan has bee a mediocre mayor at best. It is utterly bizarre that the Tories chose Susan Hall as their candidate. She is his best chance of holding on.

CCHQ does not want to play by the rules. Unfortunately, its record at putting its thumb on the scale is mixed, to say the least. Susan Hall is Mayoral candidate after a failed attempt to rig the selection process for a Cameroon candidate who withdrew. We've already mentioned photo ID, and it lost the Brexit referendum after making it harder for Labour-leaning young people to vote.

Stuartinromford

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

The Tories made a similar commitment which evaporated after the Chesham and Amersham by election.

Difference is that C+A is a must win seat for the Conservatives, and core Nimby is pretty much core Conservative demographic.

Whereas Labour's core vote is fed up with overpriced flat shares and their winning Amersham is the blob of icing on the icing figurine on the icing on the cake.

ThomasNashe

Malmesbury said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Labour will, almost certainly, have a large number of MPs in areas where house building is required.

They will be facing opposition parties slavering at the thought of weaponising the Green-NIMBY-Planning-Circus nexus.

Starmer will have a hundred voices telling him to water down any plans. His MPs plus theTreasury (falling house prices would cause a variety of short term issues, and in the longer term would be a pensions problem) plus house building companies etc etc.

If they get the sort of majority now being predicted, they will have the opportunity to face down the opposition. And if they don't take it, they'll deserve to be voted out. I'm optimistic though.

DecrepiterJohnL

ThomasNashe said:

SouthamObserver said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

Khan has bee a mediocre mayor at best. It is utterly bizarre that the Tories chose Susan Hall as their candidate. She is his best chance of holding on.

Indeed, it was a long shot that they would come up with a worse candidate than Shaun Bailey, but by golly ... they only went and did it!

Know your place, boy. That's Lord Bailey of Partygate to you.

SouthamObserver

Leon said:

There is a weird inverse relationship - which only appears during major political shifts in Scotland - between support for Indy and support for the SNP

The psychology is this: both are seen as proxies for patriotism. Most Scots are patriotic

So if you don’t do one you’d better do the other, if you’re a patriotic Scot. We saw this after the NO vote in 2014. Support for the Nats might have been expected to collapse; instead it surged and remained incredibly firm and high for nearly a decade

That was patriotic Scots feeling a bit guilty about voting NO and switching to the SNP to prove their Tartan credentials

Now the SNP are falling so those same patriotic Scots express their aspiration for Indy in harmless polls by saying YES

My impression was that the Tory response to the 2014 result played straight into the SNP’s hands. Brexit also seems to have solidified support for independence, if not the SNP.

LostPassword

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:

JosiasJessop said:

"UNRWA claims: UN agency condemns aid halt over alleged help for Hamas attacks"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68119268

"It is shocking to see a suspension of funds to the agency in reaction to allegations against a small group of staff, especially given the immediate action that UNRWA took by terminating their contracts and asking for a transparent independent investigation. "

There's so much to be said about this, little of it good. Sacking staff *before* an investigation sort-of prejudices the investigation, doesn't it? And what are the terms of the investigation - is it just into the specific direct allegations, or more into the way UNRWA was working in Gaza? And on the other hand, is it valid to stop funds to an organisation that is apparently doing so much good, even if some of what its staff do is bad?

It’s a suspension of funds not the stopping of them permanently. The suspicion is that those who were sacked are scapegoats.

UNRWA vehicles were used by the Oct 7 terrorists. That requires cooperation. The question is how high the rot goes.

It was also pretty disturbing to hear UNRWA’s spokeswoman on the radio this morning describing the suspension of funds as a “collective punishment” for the Palestinian people. That’s a very specific term in this context.

It’s… coincidental that Israel’s allegations towards UNWRA came out just after the ICJ preliminary ruling was issued and was somewhat critical of Israel.

It might be. And haven't UNWRA actually sacked a bunch of people? I don't think it's just baseless Israeli accusations.

SouthamObserver

Malmesbury said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Labour will, almost certainly, have a large number of MPs in areas where house building is required.

They will be facing opposition parties slavering at the thought of weaponising the Green-NIMBY-Planning-Circus nexus.

Starmer will have a hundred voices telling him to water down any plans. His MPs plus theTreasury (falling house prices would cause a variety of short term issues, and in the longer term would be a pensions problem) plus house building companies etc etc.

Labour can focus housebuilding in the cities and in Tory constituencies surrounding them!

kinabalu

Taz said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

What’s new. Areas like this have been on their own and left to wither for decades now anyway. Treated with barely disguised contempt by politicians across all parties.

It was a major driver of the leave vote in these areas. Economic boom post crash. What economic boom. Areas like these never enjoyed it.

Had prosperity been spread more evenly we would have never voted leave. Still, we did, and remainers need to get over it.

The biggest obstacle to a fairer distribution of wealth in this country is the continued electoral success of the institution whose reason-for-being is to prevent it - the Conservative Party. By delivering the party into the hands of its poorest calibre practitioners Brexit has put a hard stop to that for the foreseeable future. They'll be out of power for a long time now. Won't get a sniff. In this sense (a stretch, yes, but a manageable one) the Leave vote by those people you refer to, assuming the motive really was a more equal society rather than one with fewer foreigners, has paid off handsomely.

Foxy

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Starmer has done a bit of talking about the housebuilding side, but I’ll believe it when the houses are built, especially since so much of housing policy is currently devolved locally. His supporters have definitely done a lot of talking about immigration though, how it’s important to have much more of it.

Starmer and Cooper don't seem to be taking a particularly permissive approach to immigration.

No, and it is pretty certain to drop as students come closer to balance between finishers and starters, and the numbers coming from Hong Kong and Ukraine drop dramatically.

LostPassword

And besides, if the information about UNWRA had come out at a different time I'm sure there's lots of other things a person could point to - such as statements by the UN secretary-general - and mutter pointedly, "it's... coincidental that... just after..."

Leon

SouthamObserver said:

Leon said:

There is a weird inverse relationship - which only appears during major political shifts in Scotland - between support for Indy and support for the SNP

The psychology is this: both are seen as proxies for patriotism. Most Scots are patriotic

So if you don’t do one you’d better do the other, if you’re a patriotic Scot. We saw this after the NO vote in 2014. Support for the Nats might have been expected to collapse; instead it surged and remained incredibly firm and high for nearly a decade

That was patriotic Scots feeling a bit guilty about voting NO and switching to the SNP to prove their Tartan credentials

Now the SNP are falling so those same patriotic Scots express their aspiration for Indy in harmless polls by saying YES

My impression was that the Tory response to the 2014 result played straight into the SNP’s hands. Brexit also seems to have solidified support for independence, if not the SNP.

Simply untrue. Brexit made no difference to support for Indy. Indeed if anything you could argue it slightly firmed up the No vote

Malmesbury

SouthamObserver said:

Malmesbury said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Labour will, almost certainly, have a large number of MPs in areas where house building is required.

They will be facing opposition parties slavering at the thought of weaponising the Green-NIMBY-Planning-Circus nexus.

Starmer will have a hundred voices telling him to water down any plans. His MPs plus theTreasury (falling house prices would cause a variety of short term issues, and in the longer term would be a pensions problem) plus house building companies etc etc.

Labour can focus housebuilding in the cities and in Tory constituencies surrounding them!

Err… Labour will win most of the big cities. Plus building *in* the cities isn’t the problem - in London, every patch of ground you can swing a cat on has a building project for flats. This is because one builder doesn’t have a monopoly - stopping building to raise prices doesn’t work there.

The problem is building the epic numbers of properties to catch up outside London and the other cities - new towns are required. There is not enough space in the existing cities. A production line of Poundbrys.

If this was easy, it would have already been done.

IanB2

Kemi emerges from hiding to face a grilling by LK this morn

And Nadine; not an MP, not a peer, what she'd doing on the show, who knows?

IanB2

Leon said:

SouthamObserver said:

Leon said:

There is a weird inverse relationship - which only appears during major political shifts in Scotland - between support for Indy and support for the SNP

The psychology is this: both are seen as proxies for patriotism. Most Scots are patriotic

So if you don’t do one you’d better do the other, if you’re a patriotic Scot. We saw this after the NO vote in 2014. Support for the Nats might have been expected to collapse; instead it surged and remained incredibly firm and high for nearly a decade

That was patriotic Scots feeling a bit guilty about voting NO and switching to the SNP to prove their Tartan credentials

Now the SNP are falling so those same patriotic Scots express their aspiration for Indy in harmless polls by saying YES

My impression was that the Tory response to the 2014 result played straight into the SNP’s hands. Brexit also seems to have solidified support for independence, if not the SNP.

Simply untrue. Brexit made no difference to support for Indy. Indeed if anything you could argue it slightly firmed up the No vote

The data suggests a small but enduring boost for yes against no, if you look again. Particlarly as implementation went through.

Leon

A Telegraph article which quotes a German defence paper which says Germany should prepare for a possible war with Russia as early as 2025

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/28/putin-russia-ukraine-west-avoid-world-war-three/

If this was one solitary hysterical voice the inclination is to ignore it. But this is part of a choir of warnings from multiple sources

The paper also suggests Putin will prevail in Ukraine this spring

Foxy

Mildly hungover here after my Burns Supper last night, a winter tradition in my household and worth finishing dry January and pescatarian early for. So good to see a Scottish thread this AM.

I read "Parcel of Rogues" in honour of the SNP, who have managed a level of incompetence that makes Sunaks government look nearly functional. It was though Fox jr2's non-cannonical rendition of McGonagall's "Tay Bridge Disaster" that was the hit of the night.

The SNP are going to be hammered by a recovery of SLAB this Westminster GE, and the Sindy cause will fade for a bit. I think though that the SNP will be back when the Starmer government looks more dogeared in 2029.

Taz

Stuartinromford said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

The Tories made a similar commitment which evaporated after the Chesham and Amersham by election.

Difference is that C+A is a must win seat for the Conservatives, and core Nimby is pretty much core Conservative demographic.

Whereas Labour's core vote is fed up with overpriced flat shares and their winning Amersham is the blob of icing on the icing figurine on the icing on the cake.

And home owners have traditionally been more inclined to vote Tory so Labour have every incentive to talk the talk but not walk the walk.

Pro_Rata

Stuartinromford said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

The Tories made a similar commitment which evaporated after the Chesham and Amersham by election.

Difference is that C+A is a must win seat for the Conservatives, and core Nimby is pretty much core Conservative demographic.

Whereas Labour's core vote is fed up with overpriced flat shares and their winning Amersham is the blob of icing on the icing figurine on the icing on the cake.

If the stats are true I'm sure there are substantial numbers of late Boomer and early Gen X voters in the Tory shires with unexpected, large adult rugrats still under their feet.

Luckyguy1983

Dura_Ace said:

Scottish Independence has gone away for a while as there is no coherent political structure around which it can happen. The SNP totally wasted Johnson and his broad-spectrum despicability the Sturgeon put the whole project in the ditch.

Independence will be back at some point, and I hope they get it, but I doubt it will be soon.

Agree, without hoping (we) they get it. Would be nice if the UK improved to the extent that we are satisfied with it, but that seems very Pollyannaesque at the current time.

Taz

kinabalu said:

Taz said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

What’s new. Areas like this have been on their own and left to wither for decades now anyway. Treated with barely disguised contempt by politicians across all parties.

It was a major driver of the leave vote in these areas. Economic boom post crash. What economic boom. Areas like these never enjoyed it.

Had prosperity been spread more evenly we would have never voted leave. Still, we did, and remainers need to get over it.

The biggest obstacle to a fairer distribution of wealth in this country is the continued electoral success of the institution whose reason-for-being is to prevent it - the Conservative Party. By delivering the party into the hands of its poorest calibre practitioners Brexit has put a hard stop to that for the foreseeable future. They'll be out of power for a long time now. Won't get a sniff. In this sense (a stretch, yes, but a manageable one) the Leave vote by those people you refer to, assuming the motive really was a more equal society rather than one with fewer foreigners, has paid off handsomely.

Yet from 97-2010 these left behind areas hardly did well. Especially as many manufacturing jobs went during this time. Something like 1 in 6. Labour always took these areas for granted as they always voted labour. As Mandelson said once, they have nowhere else to go.

The reasons for voting leave were many. Remainers can convince themselves every leave voter is a wannabe Tommy Robinson. However that is just not the case as Lord Ashcrofts polls showed and, quite frankly, leave voters had little to lose anyway. It may not have paid off handsomely, but many of those areas are no better or worse off.

Perhaps engaging with the voters and speaking to them rather than telling them they are all wrong may have also helped.

Leon

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

Mexicanpete

...

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

Malmesbury said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Labour will, almost certainly, have a large number of MPs in areas where house building is required.

They will be facing opposition parties slavering at the thought of weaponising the Green-NIMBY-Planning-Circus nexus.

Starmer will have a hundred voices telling him to water down any plans. His MPs plus theTreasury (falling house prices would cause a variety of short term issues, and in the longer term would be a pensions problem) plus house building companies etc etc.

Labour can focus housebuilding in the cities and in Tory constituencies surrounding them!

Err… Labour will win most of the big cities. Plus building *in* the cities isn’t the problem - in London, every patch of ground you can swing a cat on has a building project for flats. This is because one builder doesn’t have a monopoly - stopping building to raise prices doesn’t work there.

The problem is building the epic numbers of properties to catch up outside London and the other cities - new towns are required. There is not enough space in the existing cities. A production line of Poundbrys.

If this was easy, it would have already been done.

Political will is required for social housing. The Persimmon Homes CEO government subsidised bonus for the last decade would have been better utilised putting up prefab estates or repurposing mothballed and empty forces estates.

The MOD a decade ago auctioned off houses in St Athan to private speculators for as little as £20k each. There remain in St Athan an estate of unused semis, lease them to councils. Do something. This is a pattern across the UK. There isn't enough housing stock, yet the government own empty houses.

A drop in the ocean, but 10-12000 homes is a start.

https://youtu.be/TXndhgrHPVA?si=64KmsKrr8TxzgA_O

Foxy

Taz said:

Stuartinromford said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

The Tories made a similar commitment which evaporated after the Chesham and Amersham by election.

Difference is that C+A is a must win seat for the Conservatives, and core Nimby is pretty much core Conservative demographic.

Whereas Labour's core vote is fed up with overpriced flat shares and their winning Amersham is the blob of icing on the icing figurine on the icing on the cake.

And home owners have traditionally been more inclined to vote Tory so Labour have every incentive to talk the talk but not walk the walk.

There is increasing evidence that social values are forestalling the traditional shift to voting Conservative as people near their forties. The traditional economic reasons to vote Tory have disappeared for working age folk, as the Tories only care about featherbedding the retired vote.

I think too that by building around the cities that the Labour vote moving into more marginal suburban and commuter seats could well make the Labour vote more efficient and flip a lot of previously safe Shire seats.

We are dealing with a new political world, and new demographics.

Luckyguy1983

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

Who are the people? Is 'apparently sensible' doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence?

Taz

I’m suffering from woke anxiety

https://x.com/deardeidre/status/1750997666236878994?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

Mexicanpete

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

Emboldened by his man Trump's victory, a new Russian empire from Lisbon to Vladivostok must be the ambition.

We might be OK because Trump has assets in Aberdeenshire and Turnberry. Maybe the UK and Ireland become the 51st and 52nd states.

Leon

Luckyguy1983 said:

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

Who are the people? Is 'apparently sensible' doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence?

The Swedish government?


Sweden's call for population to prepare for war sparks panic and criticism

It’s been described as a bombshell moment. The upper echelons of Sweden’s government and defence forces last week shocked the nation by explicitly warning that war might come to Sweden, “

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240118-sweden-s-call-for-population-to-prepare-for-war-sparks-panic-and-criticism

ohnotnow

Foxy said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Starmer has done a bit of talking about the housebuilding side, but I’ll believe it when the houses are built, especially since so much of housing policy is currently devolved locally. His supporters have definitely done a lot of talking about immigration though, how it’s important to have much more of it.

Starmer and Cooper don't seem to be taking a particularly permissive approach to immigration.

No, and it is pretty certain to drop as students come closer to balance between finishers and starters, and the numbers coming from Hong Kong and Ukraine drop dramatically.

Although if Trump wins and ditches support for Ukraine, that might cause another spike.

Carnyx

Leon said:

SouthamObserver said:

Leon said:

There is a weird inverse relationship - which only appears during major political shifts in Scotland - between support for Indy and support for the SNP

The psychology is this: both are seen as proxies for patriotism. Most Scots are patriotic

So if you don’t do one you’d better do the other, if you’re a patriotic Scot. We saw this after the NO vote in 2014. Support for the Nats might have been expected to collapse; instead it surged and remained incredibly firm and high for nearly a decade

That was patriotic Scots feeling a bit guilty about voting NO and switching to the SNP to prove their Tartan credentials

Now the SNP are falling so those same patriotic Scots express their aspiration for Indy in harmless polls by saying YES

My impression was that the Tory response to the 2014 result played straight into the SNP’s hands. Brexit also seems to have solidified support for independence, if not the SNP.

Simply untrue. Brexit made no difference to support for Indy. Indeed if anything you could argue it slightly firmed up the No vote

You're confusing the referendum with the actual Brexit. Brexit didn't actually HAPPEN for years and years, and indeed still hasn't finished happening (customs still not sorted out). The way in which the Scots were denied separate status but the DUP were pampered was noted in Scotland, as the graph suggests.

Mexicanpete

Taz said:

I’m suffering from woke anxiety

https://x.com/deardeidre/status/1750997666236878994?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

Clearly a genuine cry for help and not a fabricated letter from the editorial office in Bouverie Street.

Do they still have editorial offices in Bouverie Street? No answers please, I don't care.

Foxy

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

No, Putin is bogged down, with his forces unable to take a pit village on the Don. The idea that he is a conventional threat to us is risible. Perhaps slightly more real for Poland and the Baltics, but not us.

Conscription into a citizen army is a nonsense. We have no equipment, accommodation or money to pay them.

Interesting piece in The Observer on why the armed forces can't recruit.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/28/plummeting-morale-low-pay-unjust-wars-it-is-no-wonder-young-people-resist-joining-up

Incidentally, I think citing unjust wars is wrong. People joining the services don't just want to train, they actually want to test themselves in combat and kill. We need some pointless military campaign to keep them interested. Perhaps the Yemen will need to do.

Malmesbury

Mexicanpete said:

...

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

Malmesbury said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Labour will, almost certainly, have a large number of MPs in areas where house building is required.

They will be facing opposition parties slavering at the thought of weaponising the Green-NIMBY-Planning-Circus nexus.

Starmer will have a hundred voices telling him to water down any plans. His MPs plus theTreasury (falling house prices would cause a variety of short term issues, and in the longer term would be a pensions problem) plus house building companies etc etc.

Labour can focus housebuilding in the cities and in Tory constituencies surrounding them!

Err… Labour will win most of the big cities. Plus building *in* the cities isn’t the problem - in London, every patch of ground you can swing a cat on has a building project for flats. This is because one builder doesn’t have a monopoly - stopping building to raise prices doesn’t work there.

The problem is building the epic numbers of properties to catch up outside London and the other cities - new towns are required. There is not enough space in the existing cities. A production line of Poundbrys.

If this was easy, it would have already been done.

Political will is required for social housing. The Persimmon Homes CEO government subsidised bonus for the last decade would have been better utilised putting up prefab estates or repurposing mothballed and empty forces estates.

The MOD a decade ago auctioned off houses in St Athan to private speculators for as little as £20k each. There remain in St Athan an estate of unused semis, lease them to councils. Do something. This is a pattern across the UK. There isn't enough housing stock, yet the government own empty houses.

A drop in the ocean, but 10-12000 homes is a start.

https://youtu.be/TXndhgrHPVA?si=64KmsKrr8TxzgA_O

IIRC the houses were deemed unfit for human habitation - teardown and rebuild was required. A common feature of the forces estates being disposed of.

Edit - we need 8-9 million homes to make up the deficit in building accumulated over the years

numbertwelve

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

No.

At least not yet.

The idea that the Russian military is capable of sweeping through Europe after their Ukrainian misadventure (however that ends) is one for the birds.

But what is likely is that we are going to have to contribute a lot more to our defence bill in future. And I expect a lot of this talk is designed at conditioning people to be aware of that.

bondegezou

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:

JosiasJessop said:

"UNRWA claims: UN agency condemns aid halt over alleged help for Hamas attacks"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68119268

"It is shocking to see a suspension of funds to the agency in reaction to allegations against a small group of staff, especially given the immediate action that UNRWA took by terminating their contracts and asking for a transparent independent investigation. "

There's so much to be said about this, little of it good. Sacking staff *before* an investigation sort-of prejudices the investigation, doesn't it? And what are the terms of the investigation - is it just into the specific direct allegations, or more into the way UNRWA was working in Gaza? And on the other hand, is it valid to stop funds to an organisation that is apparently doing so much good, even if some of what its staff do is bad?

It’s a suspension of funds not the stopping of them permanently. The suspicion is that those who were sacked are scapegoats.

UNRWA vehicles were used by the Oct 7 terrorists. That requires cooperation. The question is how high the rot goes.

It was also pretty disturbing to hear UNRWA’s spokeswoman on the radio this morning describing the suspension of funds as a “collective punishment” for the Palestinian people. That’s a very specific term in this context.

It’s… coincidental that Israel’s allegations towards UNWRA came out just after the ICJ preliminary ruling was issued and was somewhat critical of Israel.

It might be. And haven't UNWRA actually sacked a bunch of people? I don't think it's just baseless Israeli accusations.

I don’t think the accusations are baseless. I think it may be that Israel held back on making them until they wanted a distraction from the ICJ ruling.

Mexicanpete

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

Malmesbury said:

ThomasNashe said:

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Taz said:

ThomasNashe said:

El_Capitano said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Agreed on this. As someone who has never liked the SNP and still doesn't, I think the issue of Scottish independence is seperate and distinct from the politicians making the case for it. When I was growing up in Scotland I was a unionist but if I had a vote now it would probably be for independence. It would be very difficult economically in the short to medium term but I think Scotland is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from the United Kingdom to achieve its long term potential.

Given that it appears to be Groundhog Referendum Day on PB, Remainia is falling well short of where it could be as a country and needs to break free from Leavistan to achieve its long term potential.

Bye bye Barnsley and Bolsover, good luck on your own.

This is clear from some of the not so subtle messaging from Sadiq Khan. Labour's forthcoming victory will further embolden him and others of his persuasion.

Although to win a majority labour needs these areas as much as it needs the big cities.

I'm thinking more of what will happen after, rather than before, the election.

That housebuilding will fall even further behind immigration.

Isn't that the one area where Labour appear to be making a definite commitment?

Labour will, almost certainly, have a large number of MPs in areas where house building is required.

They will be facing opposition parties slavering at the thought of weaponising the Green-NIMBY-Planning-Circus nexus.

Starmer will have a hundred voices telling him to water down any plans. His MPs plus theTreasury (falling house prices would cause a variety of short term issues, and in the longer term would be a pensions problem) plus house building companies etc etc.

Labour can focus housebuilding in the cities and in Tory constituencies surrounding them!

Err… Labour will win most of the big cities. Plus building *in* the cities isn’t the problem - in London, every patch of ground you can swing a cat on has a building project for flats. This is because one builder doesn’t have a monopoly - stopping building to raise prices doesn’t work there.

The problem is building the epic numbers of properties to catch up outside London and the other cities - new towns are required. There is not enough space in the existing cities. A production line of Poundbrys.

If this was easy, it would have already been done.

Political will is required for social housing. The Persimmon Homes CEO government subsidised bonus for the last decade would have been better utilised putting up prefab estates or repurposing mothballed and empty forces estates.

The MOD a decade ago auctioned off houses in St Athan to private speculators for as little as £20k each. There remain in St Athan an estate of unused semis, lease them to councils. Do something. This is a pattern across the UK. There isn't enough housing stock, yet the government own empty houses.

A drop in the ocean, but 10-12000 homes is a start.

https://youtu.be/TXndhgrHPVA?si=64KmsKrr8TxzgA_O

IIRC the houses were deemed unfit for human habitation - teardown and rebuild was required. A common feature of the forced estates being disposed of.

Edit - we need 8-9 million homes to make up the deficit in building accumulated over the years

Try this for size.

https://www.forces.net/politics/empty-mod-homes-be-used-tackle-edinburghs-housing-shortage

N.B. Not fit for use? They were happy to sell them off for pennies in the last decade to buy-to-let landlords.

And if it was up to me "Right to buy" would be ended.

Sandpit

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

It’s been on for nearly two years already. Unless Europe unites to hand Russia a convincing defeat in Ukraine, Putin’s not going to back down.

That means a lot more European defence spending, and escalating sanctions to those trading with the angry bear. Start with 50% tarrifs on Chinese and Indian cars, unless those countries stop buying Putin’s black-market oil.

Oh, and whatever it takes to get the Saudis pumping the black stuff like crazy, to serious deprive Russia of hard currency.

Leon

Mexicanpete said:

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

Emboldened by his man Trump's victory, a new Russian empire from Lisbon to Vladivostok must be the ambition.

We might be OK because Trump has assets in Aberdeenshire and Turnberry. Maybe the UK and Ireland become the 51st and 52nd states.

Putin is an old man in a hurry. He’s getting closer to a kind of victory in Ukraine

If he achieves it, will he stop there? Why should he stop there? He’s turned Russia into a wartime economy and he might as well continue now, he faces no more major internal threats it seems

Georgia next? The Baltics? Moldova?

The concern must be that this is all co-ordinated with China. Attack the west from multiple directions so America’s might is divided. Put a choke on Taiwan, destabilise the Middle East, march into chisinau

Hm

Luckyguy1983

Leon said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

Who are the people? Is 'apparently sensible' doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence?

The Swedish government?


Sweden's call for population to prepare for war sparks panic and criticism

It’s been described as a bombshell moment. The upper echelons of Sweden’s government and defence forces last week shocked the nation by explicitly warning that war might come to Sweden, “

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240118-sweden-s-call-for-population-to-prepare-for-war-sparks-panic-and-criticism

I see. Sweden have been at war with Peter the Great's Russia, and probably other times I've not read about. Brutal conflict. The Swedish King was very brilliant but they lost in the end. I think it was Sweden invading a bit of Russia from memory but I could be wrong.

Being prepared against an invasion just seems wise to me - we should be similarly prepared. Our Government uses strong words on the one hand and shitcans our one blast furnace making weapons grade steel on the other.

Malmesbury

Leon said:

Are we actually going to war with Putin?

It seems utterly ridiculous, but a lot of apparently sensible people are raising the alarm

It’s more a case of “If Putin wants to go to war with us”

If he hasn’t invaded Ukraine, Germany would be happily trading with Russia. No one, in the West, wanted a conflict with Russia, despite 2014.