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Boris to lead Reform UK? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    One thing about this poll. It should prompt Sir Simon Clarke to get his CV into GB News asap.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,570

    ohnotnow said:

    Holocaust survivors criticise plans for new Westminster memorial
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68085242


    Although it should be remembered much of the Jewish Establishment is on board with the proposals, criticisms include:-

    She hit the table in frustration as she told the MPs the idea of a learning centre was almost an insult: "What are we learning now that we haven't learned in 80 years? We shouldn't kill each other? Good idea".

    She also feared the memorial would overshadow the nearby Buxton slavery memorial.

    Martin Stern - who was arrested by the Nazis aged five - said the proposed site for the learning centre was "far too big for the little park and far too small for the purpose.".

    Crossbench peer Baroness Deech, who had family members killed in the Holocaust, objected to the memorial being built so close to a children's playground and a cafe.

    "How can one have a cafe - selling coke and crisps - by a memorial of people who starved to death. I can not think of anything more tin-eared."

    Mr Stern also suggested the site "intended to counteract antisemitism will in fact increase it.

    "People will say 'look at the Jews - they push themselves to the front'."

    His concerns were echoed by another survivor - Joanna Millan - who worried about the amount of money being spent on the project.

    She feared people would ask: "Why is all this money being spent on Jews - what about our hospitals?"

    Several of the witnesses proposed the Imperial War Museum, less than a mile from Parliament, as an alternative site big enough to accommodate a learning centre.

    I have a great admiration for Lasker-Walfisch. She was on a repeat of a programme about Holocaust survivors in the UK a couple of nights ago, an unflinching, unsentimental old bird. Her sitting on a piece of the Berlin Holocaust monument smoking a fag shortly before or after addressing the Bundestag recounting how she used to hate Germans but had managed to move on from that was the best possible response to the Nazis.
    The 'smoking a fag' thing has reminded me of a rather delightful old BBC documentary with Daphne Du Maurier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmk8gjom1W0.

    Ciggy, glass of gin, stout tweeds and a rather 'well, f**k it all, dahling' attitude.
    I keep forgetting she wrote The Birds. Never read it, wonder how close to it the film is.
    Not very close, from memory.

    One of my favourite books, in fact, perhaps my favourite, is "Marnie", by Winston Graham (more famous for the excellent Poldark books). I love everything about the book, including the eponymous antiheroine. Who in some ways is a nasty piece of work (her husband gets injured in a riding accident, and she is more concerned for her horse). Yet Graham wrote her character in such a way that her actions make sense, and they make her a sympathetic character, even as you dislike what she does.

    Hitchcock made it into a film starring Sean Connery in the 1960s, and it was... well, it was terrible.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    edited January 24

    One thing about this poll. It should prompt Sir Simon Clarke to get his CV into GB News asap.

    Important to get in soon, there will be lots looking for work!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Foxy said:

    I've been out most of the day. Is Liz Truss PM again yet?

    It was only briefly, it was easy to miss it...
    They say all joy is but fleeting.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


    Will Dry is quite clearly a Tory Wet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


    Will Dry is quite clearly a Tory Wet.
    Wetting his pants at least.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    ohnotnow said:

    Holocaust survivors criticise plans for new Westminster memorial
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68085242


    Although it should be remembered much of the Jewish Establishment is on board with the proposals, criticisms include:-

    She hit the table in frustration as she told the MPs the idea of a learning centre was almost an insult: "What are we learning now that we haven't learned in 80 years? We shouldn't kill each other? Good idea".

    She also feared the memorial would overshadow the nearby Buxton slavery memorial.

    Martin Stern - who was arrested by the Nazis aged five - said the proposed site for the learning centre was "far too big for the little park and far too small for the purpose.".

    Crossbench peer Baroness Deech, who had family members killed in the Holocaust, objected to the memorial being built so close to a children's playground and a cafe.

    "How can one have a cafe - selling coke and crisps - by a memorial of people who starved to death. I can not think of anything more tin-eared."

    Mr Stern also suggested the site "intended to counteract antisemitism will in fact increase it.

    "People will say 'look at the Jews - they push themselves to the front'."

    His concerns were echoed by another survivor - Joanna Millan - who worried about the amount of money being spent on the project.

    She feared people would ask: "Why is all this money being spent on Jews - what about our hospitals?"

    Several of the witnesses proposed the Imperial War Museum, less than a mile from Parliament, as an alternative site big enough to accommodate a learning centre.

    I have a great admiration for Lasker-Walfisch. She was on a repeat of a programme about Holocaust survivors in the UK a couple of nights ago, an unflinching, unsentimental old bird. Her sitting on a piece of the Berlin Holocaust monument smoking a fag shortly before or after addressing the Bundestag recounting how she used to hate Germans but had managed to move on from that was the best possible response to the Nazis.
    The 'smoking a fag' thing has reminded me of a rather delightful old BBC documentary with Daphne Du Maurier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmk8gjom1W0.

    Ciggy, glass of gin, stout tweeds and a rather 'well, f**k it all, dahling' attitude.
    I keep forgetting she wrote The Birds. Never read it, wonder how close to it the film is.
    Not very close, from memory.

    One of my favourite books, in fact, perhaps my favourite, is "Marnie", by Winston Graham (more famous for the excellent Poldark books). I love everything about the book, including the eponymous antiheroine. Who in some ways is a nasty piece of work (her husband gets injured in a riding accident, and she is more concerned for her horse). Yet Graham wrote her character in such a way that her actions make sense, and they make her a sympathetic character, even as you dislike what she does.

    Hitchcock made it into a film starring Sean Connery in the 1960s, and it was... well, it was terrible.
    Really! Hitchcock's last film I think - and as with The Birds, Tippi Hedren as the lead. Not his best ever, but I still like it a lot.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    edited January 24
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


    Jolly good. Another day, another Tory rattle thrown out of the pram. There really isn’t much grit to the Tories these days, it all falls apart once the power ebbs away. Nothing to bond them apart from power.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Compare some of the rhetorical choices in Greg Abbott's assertion of a sovereign right to self defense and the Texas secession ordinance from 1861.
    https://twitter.com/AnthonyMKreis/status/1750261415787512171
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Without having read any of the comments and only answering the opening post, isn't another problem Richard Tice?

    I can't see him willing to stand aside for Johnson.
    Whilst he's no Farage, he has enough recognition amongst some to not want to give up too easily.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    Foxy said:

    I've been out most of the day. Is Liz Truss PM again yet?

    It was only briefly, it was easy to miss it...
    They say all joy is but fleeting.
    Sussed it. You are Thomas Thorne!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    ohnotnow said:

    Holocaust survivors criticise plans for new Westminster memorial
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68085242


    Although it should be remembered much of the Jewish Establishment is on board with the proposals, criticisms include:-

    She hit the table in frustration as she told the MPs the idea of a learning centre was almost an insult: "What are we learning now that we haven't learned in 80 years? We shouldn't kill each other? Good idea".

    She also feared the memorial would overshadow the nearby Buxton slavery memorial.

    Martin Stern - who was arrested by the Nazis aged five - said the proposed site for the learning centre was "far too big for the little park and far too small for the purpose.".

    Crossbench peer Baroness Deech, who had family members killed in the Holocaust, objected to the memorial being built so close to a children's playground and a cafe.

    "How can one have a cafe - selling coke and crisps - by a memorial of people who starved to death. I can not think of anything more tin-eared."

    Mr Stern also suggested the site "intended to counteract antisemitism will in fact increase it.

    "People will say 'look at the Jews - they push themselves to the front'."

    His concerns were echoed by another survivor - Joanna Millan - who worried about the amount of money being spent on the project.

    She feared people would ask: "Why is all this money being spent on Jews - what about our hospitals?"

    Several of the witnesses proposed the Imperial War Museum, less than a mile from Parliament, as an alternative site big enough to accommodate a learning centre.

    I have a great admiration for Lasker-Walfisch. She was on a repeat of a programme about Holocaust survivors in the UK a couple of nights ago, an unflinching, unsentimental old bird. Her sitting on a piece of the Berlin Holocaust monument smoking a fag shortly before or after addressing the Bundestag recounting how she used to hate Germans but had managed to move on from that was the best possible response to the Nazis.
    The 'smoking a fag' thing has reminded me of a rather delightful old BBC documentary with Daphne Du Maurier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmk8gjom1W0.

    Ciggy, glass of gin, stout tweeds and a rather 'well, f**k it all, dahling' attitude.
    I keep forgetting she wrote The Birds. Never read it, wonder how close to it the film is.
    Not very close, from memory.

    One of my favourite books, in fact, perhaps my favourite, is "Marnie", by Winston Graham (more famous for the excellent Poldark books). I love everything about the book, including the eponymous antiheroine. Who in some ways is a nasty piece of work (her husband gets injured in a riding accident, and she is more concerned for her horse). Yet Graham wrote her character in such a way that her actions make sense, and they make her a sympathetic character, even as you dislike what she does.

    Hitchcock made it into a film starring Sean Connery in the 1960s, and it was... well, it was terrible.
    Really! Hitchcock's last film I think - and as with The Birds, Tippi Hedren as the lead. Not his best ever, but I still like it a lot.
    Wasn't Frenzy the last?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643

    ...

    ohnotnow said:

    Holocaust survivors criticise plans for new Westminster memorial
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68085242


    Although it should be remembered much of the Jewish Establishment is on board with the proposals, criticisms include:-

    She hit the table in frustration as she told the MPs the idea of a learning centre was almost an insult: "What are we learning now that we haven't learned in 80 years? We shouldn't kill each other? Good idea".

    She also feared the memorial would overshadow the nearby Buxton slavery memorial.

    Martin Stern - who was arrested by the Nazis aged five - said the proposed site for the learning centre was "far too big for the little park and far too small for the purpose.".

    Crossbench peer Baroness Deech, who had family members killed in the Holocaust, objected to the memorial being built so close to a children's playground and a cafe.

    "How can one have a cafe - selling coke and crisps - by a memorial of people who starved to death. I can not think of anything more tin-eared."

    Mr Stern also suggested the site "intended to counteract antisemitism will in fact increase it.

    "People will say 'look at the Jews - they push themselves to the front'."

    His concerns were echoed by another survivor - Joanna Millan - who worried about the amount of money being spent on the project.

    She feared people would ask: "Why is all this money being spent on Jews - what about our hospitals?"

    Several of the witnesses proposed the Imperial War Museum, less than a mile from Parliament, as an alternative site big enough to accommodate a learning centre.

    I have a great admiration for Lasker-Walfisch. She was on a repeat of a programme about Holocaust survivors in the UK a couple of nights ago, an unflinching, unsentimental old bird. Her sitting on a piece of the Berlin Holocaust monument smoking a fag shortly before or after addressing the Bundestag recounting how she used to hate Germans but had managed to move on from that was the best possible response to the Nazis.
    The 'smoking a fag' thing has reminded me of a rather delightful old BBC documentary with Daphne Du Maurier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmk8gjom1W0.

    Ciggy, glass of gin, stout tweeds and a rather 'well, f**k it all, dahling' attitude.
    I keep forgetting she wrote The Birds. Never read it, wonder how close to it the film is.
    Not very close, from memory.

    One of my favourite books, in fact, perhaps my favourite, is "Marnie", by Winston Graham (more famous for the excellent Poldark books). I love everything about the book, including the eponymous antiheroine. Who in some ways is a nasty piece of work (her husband gets injured in a riding accident, and she is more concerned for her horse). Yet Graham wrote her character in such a way that her actions make sense, and they make her a sympathetic character, even as you dislike what she does.

    Hitchcock made it into a film starring Sean Connery in the 1960s, and it was... well, it was terrible.
    Really! Hitchcock's last film I think - and as with The Birds, Tippi Hedren as the lead. Not his best ever, but I still like it a lot.
    Wasn't Frenzy the last?
    Family Plot.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited January 24
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


    Presume Will Dry’s partner is called Al Wash?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Trump’s White House Pharmacy Handed Out Drugs Like Candy: Report
    A Department of Defense report found an obscene lack of control over the handling of controlled medications while Trump was in office
    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-white-house-pharmacy-prescription-drugs-1234953535/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Britain proposes acquiring German Tauruses as replacements for its Storm Shadows, aiming to supply Ukraine with more Storm Shadows. Chancellor Scholz's office is reviewing this strategic exchange, with potential support from Berlin, per Handelsblatt.
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1750269755955540093
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


    Will Dry is quite clearly a Tory Wet.
    Sounds pretty dry to me.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    @itvpeston
    🚨NEW

    Labour has a 34 point lead over the Conservatives in 150 key target seats, per exclusive @thefabians analysis

    This is 10 points higher than the national average 👀

    GB
    🌹LAB 46%
    🌳CON 22%

    TARGET SEATS
    🌹LAB 52%
    🌳CON 18%

    💻LIVE 9PM
    @itvpeston

    📺10.45PM
    @ITV


    #Peston
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    Without having read any of the comments and only answering the opening post, isn't another problem Richard Tice?

    I can't see him willing to stand aside for Johnson.
    Whilst he's no Farage, he has enough recognition amongst some to not want to give up too easily.

    Farage basically owns the party as a company, so if he wants Tice gone, he's gone. Whether or not he'd want Boris stealing his thunder and grand comeback is I suppose a separate question.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    ohnotnow said:

    Holocaust survivors criticise plans for new Westminster memorial
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68085242


    Although it should be remembered much of the Jewish Establishment is on board with the proposals, criticisms include:-

    She hit the table in frustration as she told the MPs the idea of a learning centre was almost an insult: "What are we learning now that we haven't learned in 80 years? We shouldn't kill each other? Good idea".

    She also feared the memorial would overshadow the nearby Buxton slavery memorial.

    Martin Stern - who was arrested by the Nazis aged five - said the proposed site for the learning centre was "far too big for the little park and far too small for the purpose.".

    Crossbench peer Baroness Deech, who had family members killed in the Holocaust, objected to the memorial being built so close to a children's playground and a cafe.

    "How can one have a cafe - selling coke and crisps - by a memorial of people who starved to death. I can not think of anything more tin-eared."

    Mr Stern also suggested the site "intended to counteract antisemitism will in fact increase it.

    "People will say 'look at the Jews - they push themselves to the front'."

    His concerns were echoed by another survivor - Joanna Millan - who worried about the amount of money being spent on the project.

    She feared people would ask: "Why is all this money being spent on Jews - what about our hospitals?"

    Several of the witnesses proposed the Imperial War Museum, less than a mile from Parliament, as an alternative site big enough to accommodate a learning centre.

    I have a great admiration for Lasker-Walfisch. She was on a repeat of a programme about Holocaust survivors in the UK a couple of nights ago, an unflinching, unsentimental old bird. Her sitting on a piece of the Berlin Holocaust monument smoking a fag shortly before or after addressing the Bundestag recounting how she used to hate Germans but had managed to move on from that was the best possible response to the Nazis.
    The 'smoking a fag' thing has reminded me of a rather delightful old BBC documentary with Daphne Du Maurier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmk8gjom1W0.

    Ciggy, glass of gin, stout tweeds and a rather 'well, f**k it all, dahling' attitude.
    I keep forgetting she wrote The Birds. Never read it, wonder how close to it the film is.
    Not very close, from memory.

    One of my favourite books, in fact, perhaps my favourite, is "Marnie", by Winston Graham (more famous for the excellent Poldark books). I love everything about the book, including the eponymous antiheroine. Who in some ways is a nasty piece of work (her husband gets injured in a riding accident, and she is more concerned for her horse). Yet Graham wrote her character in such a way that her actions make sense, and they make her a sympathetic character, even as you dislike what she does.

    Hitchcock made it into a film starring Sean Connery in the 1960s, and it was... well, it was terrible.
    Really! Hitchcock's last film I think - and as with The Birds, Tippi Hedren as the lead. Not his best ever, but I still like it a lot.
    Tippi Hedren is still alive too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    Scott_xP said:

    @itvpeston
    🚨NEW

    Labour has a 34 point lead over the Conservatives in 150 key target seats, per exclusive @thefabians analysis

    This is 10 points higher than the national average 👀

    GB
    🌹LAB 46%
    🌳CON 22%

    TARGET SEATS
    🌹LAB 52%
    🌳CON 18%

    💻LIVE 9PM
    @itvpeston

    📺10.45PM
    @ITV


    #Peston

    Sunak fans, please explain.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    34 point lead in the marginals. It is over lol
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    Without having read any of the comments and only answering the opening post, isn't another problem Richard Tice?

    I can't see him willing to stand aside for Johnson.
    Whilst he's no Farage, he has enough recognition amongst some to not want to give up too easily.

    No, he wants Farage back in harness - he knows that's what is going to put a rocket under Refuk.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    Scott_xP said:

    @itvpeston
    🚨NEW

    Labour has a 34 point lead over the Conservatives in 150 key target seats, per exclusive @thefabians analysis

    This is 10 points higher than the national average 👀

    GB
    🌹LAB 46%
    🌳CON 22%

    TARGET SEATS
    🌹LAB 52%
    🌳CON 18%

    💻LIVE 9PM
    @itvpeston

    📺10.45PM
    @ITV


    #Peston

    Lab on 498 seats, and REFUK on one...

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=22&LAB=46&LIB=11&Reform=12&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=33.1&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1.5&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.9&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited January 24
    I very much enjoyed @NickPalmer’s header. One slightly less plausible detail though:

    The seat where you live, Didcot and Wantage, is the only Oxfordshire seat where RefUK has yet to select – a coincidence, or a contingency plan?


    At District Council level (the most recent elections), Didcot & Wantage has the grand total of 1 onanistic Conservative, a miserly threesome of Labour councillors, and a veritable orgy of 79 gazillion LibDems and Greens.

    It is not exactly Reform territory. And I believe NPXMP is CLP chair so knows this quite well, but a fun bit of mischief nonetheless.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


    Jolly good. Another day, another Tory rattle thrown out of the pram. There really isn’t much grit to the Tories these days, it all falls apart once the power ebbs away. Nothing to bond them apart from power.
    Quite amusing to see he's now working with the Tory Party's nutty right, given he started out as a 2nd Referendumer. Go where you think the cash is I suppose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


    This Libdem councillor sums things up nicely I think:


    Richard
    @richardgomer


    They've had 12 years to do something, and all they've achieved is a death spiral. We're all poorer, nothing works, and they're nasty to boot. Now they're desperately trying to save their own pathetic skins. Bring on a decade of Labour, it has to be better than more of this shit.

    https://twitter.com/richardgomer
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 187
    edited January 24


    Not very close, from memory.

    One of my favourite books, in fact, perhaps my favourite, is "Marnie", by Winston Graham (more famous for the excellent Poldark books). I love everything about the book, including the eponymous antiheroine. Who in some ways is a nasty piece of work (her husband gets injured in a riding accident, and she is more concerned for her horse). Yet Graham wrote her character in such a way that her actions make sense, and they make her a sympathetic character, even as you dislike what she does.

    Hitchcock made it into a film starring Sean Connery in the 1960s, and it was... well, it was terrible.
    I have not read the book Marnie - and should do so - however, I think the Hitchcock Marnie film is not terrible. It is not great; but it arguably casts a fascinating light on what we know about the Hitchcock and Tippy Hedren relationship/obsession; and Hitchcock’s own biography.

    I am a Hitchcock fan so I try not to judge him too harshly. I love the films and so try to divorce the behaviour from the output. But, if you view that film as a bit of inner life of the man it doesn’t paint a flattering picture. Admittedly in Birds he got to give Tippy hell with the Seagulls when filming - but I often wonder if the message in Marnie was beyond the pale.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    I very much enjoyed @NickPalmer’s header. One slightly less plausible detail though:

    The seat where you live, Didcot and Wantage, is the only Oxfordshire seat where RefUK has yet to select – a coincidence, or a contingency plan?


    At District Council level (the most recent elections), Didcot & Wantage has the grand total of 1 onanistic Conservative, a miserly threesome of Labour councillors, and a veritable orgy of 79 gazillion LibDems and Greens.

    It is not exactly Reform territory. And I believe NPXMP is CLP chair so knows this quite well, but a fun bit of mischief nonetheless.
    I thought Nick was in Surrey? Godalming?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    What will be amusing is the contortions the Sun has to go through in order to back Labour by the time the Election is held.
  • So, Texas. Confederate State declares the Federal Government - and US Supreme Court - have no authority to override state laws and decisions.

    Fun fun fun! Gilead begins!
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    biggles said:

    What will be amusing is the contortions the Sun has to go through in order to back Labour by the time the Election is held.

    Do you think they honestly will?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708

    So, Texas. Confederate State declares the Federal Government - and US Supreme Court - have no authority to override state laws and decisions.

    Fun fun fun! Gilead begins!

    Till Daddy takes the T-Bird away

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703

    Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    13h
    Outside of the pandemic I don’t think I’ve known my news feed be this bleak. Story after story of something structural breaking - often things that have long been known about - or the human cost of it. So many things to report that it’s hard to know where to start

    ===

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    ….
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

    Posted yesterday, the Tory slogan is going to be

    Britain is Broken; Don't let Labour fix it...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    Nigelb said:

    Compare some of the rhetorical choices in Greg Abbott's assertion of a sovereign right to self defense and the Texas secession ordinance from 1861.
    https://twitter.com/AnthonyMKreis/status/1750261415787512171

    That’s exactly what I was thinking of when I read it.

  • Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    13h
    Outside of the pandemic I don’t think I’ve known my news feed be this bleak. Story after story of something structural breaking - often things that have long been known about - or the human cost of it. So many things to report that it’s hard to know where to start

    ===

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

    This is the bit the remaining Tories and their rampers refuse to face - "Nothing is working anymore". This latest poll just means they carry on and on and on, later and later into the year getting more angry and desperate. Why aren't people coming back to them? Can't they see how good things are?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631


    Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    13h
    Outside of the pandemic I don’t think I’ve known my news feed be this bleak. Story after story of something structural breaking - often things that have long been known about - or the human cost of it. So many things to report that it’s hard to know where to start

    ===

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

    "Back to square one" sounds so appealing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    ydoethur said:

    Phil said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Simon Clarke kept some nice friends at uni:

    @OwenJones84
    Simon Clarke was in the year below me at university, and his crew were the first Tories I'd then met.

    And all I'm saying is it had quite the lasting impact on my politics!

    His best friend was
    @CllrCarlJackson
    , who sent me these messages after we graduated.


    image

    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1750147189932782025?s=20

    Those look iMessages which didn't exist in 2005.

    I am intrigued by what messaging platform was used.
    I was wondering about that earlier - but seeing as though I didn't get a smart phone until Jan 2016, I assumed that I was just a long way behind the curve.
    The iPhone was launched in 2007 and iMessages wasn't launched until 2011.
    Those look like Facebook messages rather than iMessage / SMS to me
    Yes & Facebook keeps messages back to the dawn of time unless you delete them. The only wrinkle here is that FB only opened up to UK universities in October 2005 so the dates are tight, but could work. Owen would have to have kept access to his university email address in order to be on Facebook, or gained access some other way but that’s not impossible - I have a vague recollection that Oxford would forward your university email to a new address for a while after graduating, which would have been sufficient.
    I don't think he'd need to have access to the old email address. As long as there was continuity with the original account then they'd still be there under his current login.
    The point is, he'd graduated by the time these messages were sent. So he would have needed access to his uni account to set up an account.
    I know lots of people who had access to Facebook before it was open to non-university students.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    34 point lead in the marginals. It is over lol

    Is that a Sheffield Rally going on behind you?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    FPT: nico679 said:

    "These articles try and justify why some voters have supported Trump . The cry of the dispossessed. When sadly Trump just forments anger and division . The only party that tries to improve life for the majority are the Dems . The GOP with their policies take from the poor to give to the rich and yet a whole lot of people continue to vote against their own interests ."

    I am not suprised to see that someone in the UK doesn't know about the EITC, and earlier efforts:
    "Proposed by Russell Long and signed into law by President Gerald Ford as part of the Tax Reduction Act of 1975, the EITC provides an income tax credit to certain individuals.[10] Upon enactment, the EITC gave a tax credit to individuals who had at least one dependent, maintained a household, and had earned income of less than $8,000 during the year.[10] The tax credit was $400 for individuals with earned income of less than $4,000. The tax credit was an amount less than $400 for individuals whose income was between $4,000 and $7,999 during the year.[10]

    The initial EITC was expanded by tax legislation on a number of occasions, including the widely publicized Tax Reform Act of 1986, and it was further expanded in 1990, 1993, 2001, and 2009, regardless of whether the act in general raised taxes (1990, 1993), lowered taxes (2001), or eliminated other deductions and credits (1986).[11] In 1993, President Clinton tripled the EITC.[12] Today, the EITC is one of the largest anti-poverty tools in the United States.[13] Also, the EITC is mainly used to "promote and support work."[12] Most income measures, including the poverty rate, do not account for the credit."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit#Welfare_benefits

    Nor am I surprised that the writer does not know about the efforts of Republican presidents to improve public education by, for example, the No Child Left Behind Act. And the efforts by Republican governors in individual states, notably George W. Bush in Texas and Jeb Bush in Florida. These have had the most impact on families which can not afford public schools.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @itvpeston
    🚨NEW

    Labour has a 34 point lead over the Conservatives in 150 key target seats, per exclusive @thefabians analysis

    This is 10 points higher than the national average 👀

    GB
    🌹LAB 46%
    🌳CON 22%

    TARGET SEATS
    🌹LAB 52%
    🌳CON 18%

    💻LIVE 9PM
    @itvpeston

    📺10.45PM
    @ITV


    #Peston

    Lab on 498 seats, and REFUK on one...

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=22&LAB=46&LIB=11&Reform=12&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=33.1&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1.5&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.9&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Electoral Calculus is hopeless. Labour is really not going to win Bicester & Woodstock or Didcot & Wantage.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Tories might want to go early. Limit the damage. Accelerate the fresh start.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    edited January 24


    Politics is volatile. Labour lost its northern and Scottish strongholds. Why are the Tories immune?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Foxy said:


    Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    13h
    Outside of the pandemic I don’t think I’ve known my news feed be this bleak. Story after story of something structural breaking - often things that have long been known about - or the human cost of it. So many things to report that it’s hard to know where to start

    ===

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

    "Back to square one" sounds so appealing.
    Things can only get better?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Jonathan said:

    Tories might want to go early. Limit the damage. Accelerate the fresh start.

    They’re certainly not making a good start of this final few months of swingback.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    🚨 EXC: Rishi Sunak’s own pollster Will Dry has resigned as a SpAd at No10 amid rows over direction of government

    🚨
    @TheSun
    can reveal he is now doing polling on behalf of this Conservative Britain Alliance who were behind that YouGov mega poll

    He has issued a statement:


    If his successor is Will Swallow, I'm going home.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited January 24
    Chris said:

    Foxy said:


    Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    13h
    Outside of the pandemic I don’t think I’ve known my news feed be this bleak. Story after story of something structural breaking - often things that have long been known about - or the human cost of it. So many things to report that it’s hard to know where to start

    ===

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

    "Back to square one" sounds so appealing.
    Things can only get better?
    "Things can't possibly get worse
    Can't possibly get worse
    Now I've dumped you."

    The slightly more downbeat follow up.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    The results, they say, are a landslide win for the unnamed Mr Right. Which proves, according to the former Rishi Sunak ally Sir Simon Clarke, that “if we switch to a better leader … we will recover strongly in 2024”. This is a bit like saying that if I were to switch to being a theoretical physicist I would stand a better chance of understanding quantum gravity. It’s not wrong, but to whom is this role-playing game actually useful?

    Look, I was never an advocate for Sunak as prime minister. He has his talents but as a politician he displays all the appeal of a Mormon maths teacher trying to fake his way through a pub crawl. His videos are toe-curling, his political instincts non-existent.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spare-us-this-charge-of-the-tory-clown-brigade-pm26vcxbg

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589


    Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    13h
    Outside of the pandemic I don’t think I’ve known my news feed be this bleak. Story after story of something structural breaking - often things that have long been known about - or the human cost of it. So many things to report that it’s hard to know where to start

    ===

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

    Nothing ?

    Clearly the internet and whatever you use to get on it is working or you wouldn't have been able to post that comment.

    My home is working fine and so were the workplace, supermarket, health club and pub I went to today.

    As were the car and roads I used to travel between them.

    So what is broken ?

    Presumably the public sector - although the parts I occasionally come into contact with - bin collection, library, doctors seem okay as well.

    Sure there are problems in places - I see the news reports - and things could always be better but aren't we in danger of ignoring how fortunate we are ?

    BTW 'rebooting Britain' would upset a lot of vested interests among those affected.

    There's no money left so change would have to come from increased efficiency and higher productivity - things which tend to create opposition.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    TimS said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories might want to go early. Limit the damage. Accelerate the fresh start.

    They’re certainly not making a good start of this final few months of swingback.
    Must be time for one of those fabled "relaunches"?



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Thoughts and prayers for those who had Lake in their VP nominee book.

    BREAKING: @AZGOP Chairman Jeff Dewit has resigned as a result of being recorded in a private conversation with Kari Lake.

    He claims Lake's people told him to resign now or face a more damaging recording.

    https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1750236594517553574
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653


    Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    13h
    Outside of the pandemic I don’t think I’ve known my news feed be this bleak. Story after story of something structural breaking - often things that have long been known about - or the human cost of it. So many things to report that it’s hard to know where to start

    ===

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

    Nothing ?

    Clearly the internet and whatever you use to get on it is working or you wouldn't have been able to post that comment.

    My home is working fine and so were the workplace, supermarket, health club and pub I went to today.

    As were the car and roads I used to travel between them.

    So what is broken ?

    Presumably the public sector - although the parts I occasionally come into contact with - bin collection, library, doctors seem okay as well.

    Sure there are problems in places - I see the news reports - and things could always be better but aren't we in danger of ignoring how fortunate we are ?

    BTW 'rebooting Britain' would upset a lot of vested interests among those affected.

    There's no money left so change would have to come from increased efficiency and higher productivity - things which tend to create opposition.
    Or increased taxes. Which is actually the answer.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Jonathan said:

    Tories might want to go early. Limit the damage. Accelerate the fresh start.

    The person who decides is Rishi, and he has shown no instinct to go early.

    Honestly I’m not sure how they’re going to survive through an election campaign at this rate.

    It really is the most amazing implosion of a governing party I’ve seen. Utterly clueless.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    An oddity of this abominable subject is that when it comes to executions the argument is constantly made that there is no humane and reliable way of doing it, but when it comes to assisted dying this matter in not raised by its supporters.

    I oppose executions and support assisted dying but I am reasonably sure that more or less identical mechanics can apply to how it works.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    @Telegraph
    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Rishi Sunak offers to sacrifice Brexit freedoms to re-establish government in Northern Ireland
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    Tristan Hunt on BBC News (as V&A person).

    He could have been a few months away from being a senior member of a Lab Cabinet if he had stuck around as an MP.

  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Legitimately, it has to be a GE in May surely? This cannot be sustained.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    Tristan Hunt on BBC News (as V&A person).

    He could have been a few months away from being a senior member of a Lab Cabinet if he had stuck around as an MP.

    That would have required more work and constituency service than he was comfortable with.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    Tristan Hunt on BBC News (as V&A person).

    He could have been a few months away from being a senior member of a Lab Cabinet if he had stuck around as an MP.

    Chuka has to be the stupidest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Scott_xP said:

    @Telegraph
    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Rishi Sunak offers to sacrifice Brexit freedoms to re-establish government in Northern Ireland

    Labour are coming into office soon anyway - might as well try to get all parts of the UK governing again, it's bloody embarrassing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Nigelb said:

    Thoughts and prayers for those who had Lake in their VP nominee book.

    BREAKING: @AZGOP Chairman Jeff Dewit has resigned as a result of being recorded in a private conversation with Kari Lake.

    He claims Lake's people told him to resign now or face a more damaging recording.

    https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1750236594517553574

    Not sure acknowledging there's probably a worse recording out there will help - it surely will come out now regardless.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Scott_xP said:

    @Telegraph
    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Rishi Sunak offers to sacrifice Brexit freedoms to re-establish government in Northern Ireland

    Some freedoms? - some sacrifice.

    Bring it on.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589


    Jennifer Williams
    @JenWilliams_FT
    ·
    13h
    Outside of the pandemic I don’t think I’ve known my news feed be this bleak. Story after story of something structural breaking - often things that have long been known about - or the human cost of it. So many things to report that it’s hard to know where to start

    ===

    The Lab manifesto slogan has to be something about "rebuilding Britain'/rebooting britain or similar surely?

    Nothing is working anymore.

    Nothing ?

    Clearly the internet and whatever you use to get on it is working or you wouldn't have been able to post that comment.

    My home is working fine and so were the workplace, supermarket, health club and pub I went to today.

    As were the car and roads I used to travel between them.

    So what is broken ?

    Presumably the public sector - although the parts I occasionally come into contact with - bin collection, library, doctors seem okay as well.

    Sure there are problems in places - I see the news reports - and things could always be better but aren't we in danger of ignoring how fortunate we are ?

    BTW 'rebooting Britain' would upset a lot of vested interests among those affected.

    There's no money left so change would have to come from increased efficiency and higher productivity - things which tend to create opposition.
    Or increased taxes. Which is actually the answer.
    Increasing taxes - which always creates further problems and opposition - only provides a very temporary answer.

    The only long term answer is increased effectiveness through higher productivity and better efficiency.

    Or alternatively technological advances which lead to the initial problem disappearing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Scott_xP said:

    @Telegraph
    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Rishi Sunak offers to sacrifice Brexit freedoms to re-establish government in Northern Ireland

    Well, certain Tories are going to love this. Get out the betrayal-o-meter.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,287

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @itvpeston
    🚨NEW

    Labour has a 34 point lead over the Conservatives in 150 key target seats, per exclusive @thefabians analysis

    This is 10 points higher than the national average 👀

    GB
    🌹LAB 46%
    🌳CON 22%

    TARGET SEATS
    🌹LAB 52%
    🌳CON 18%

    💻LIVE 9PM
    @itvpeston

    📺10.45PM
    @ITV


    #Peston

    Lab on 498 seats, and REFUK on one...

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=22&LAB=46&LIB=11&Reform=12&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=33.1&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1.5&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.9&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Electoral Calculus is hopeless. Labour is really not going to win Bicester & Woodstock or Didcot & Wantage.
    The YouGov MRP most marginal seats were an interesting in how a more realistic Labour landslide might look and where would be important in that.

    The 8 constituencies in which Labour and Conservative finished on the same percentage vote were:

    Aylesbury
    Banbury
    Bracknell
    Great Yarmouth
    Isle of Wight East
    Kettering
    North Northumberland
    Ribble Valley
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Bye bye Labour Majority. 👋🏻.

    Sunak’s British Homes for British Workers policy is about to add 20 points to Tory’s in the opinion polls.

    Tories are serious about winning this general election after all. I’m beginning to think Isaac Levido is very good at his job.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    edited January 24
    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    I find your flippancy disturbing: nitrogen is an absolute killer. Every young person who dies suddenly, do you know what they have in common? nitrogen in their lungs. And yet no-one is willing to talk about it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Jonathan said:

    Tories might want to go early. Limit the damage. Accelerate the fresh start.

    The person who decides is Rishi, and he has shown no instinct to go early.

    Honestly I’m not sure how they’re going to survive through an election campaign at this rate.

    It really is the most amazing implosion of a governing party I’ve seen. Utterly clueless.
    The only real reason for Sunak to go early is him anticipating a more effective challenge in the summer, after the May Locals.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    I find your flippancy disturbing: nitrogen is an absolute killer. Every young people who dies suddenly, do you know what they have in common? nitrogen in their lungs. And yet no-one is willing to talk about it.
    I think you are 80% correct.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703

    Bye bye Labour Majority. 👋🏻.

    Sunak’s British Homes for British Workers policy is about to add 20 points to Tory’s in the opinion polls.

    Tories are serious about winning this general election after all. I’m beginning to think Isaac Levido is very good at his job.

    Where is he planning to build them?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    I find your flippancy disturbing: nitrogen is an absolute killer. Every young people who dies suddenly, do you know what they have in common? nitrogen in their lungs. And yet no-one is willing to talk about it.
    I think you are 80% correct.
    I think that this ignores the far more deadly threat of Dihydrogen Monoxide. *Every* person who has ever died - tons of it in their body.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    I find your flippancy disturbing: nitrogen is an absolute killer. Every young person who dies suddenly, do you know what they have in common? nitrogen in their lungs. And yet no-one is willing to talk about it.
    The problems of dihydrogen monoxide are similarly ignored, despite its role in thousands of deaths.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241

    So, Texas. Confederate State declares the Federal Government - and US Supreme Court - have no authority to override state laws and decisions.

    Fun fun fun! Gilead begins!

    I’m not sure the feds would have the stomach for a rerun of the Civil War though.

    But Texas… losing that would be worse for a US President than losing Scotland would be for a Brit
  • Legitimately, it has to be a GE in May surely? This cannot be sustained.

    That certainly was plan A. Declare a "Tax Cut" in November and rush it through. Spend the late winter ramping how things are getting better, then a Big Giveaway Budget early March and use the momentum to launch your election campaign.

    Supposedly chunks of Whitehall still thinks it is 2nd May. But I would be astonished now. Remember that the easiest decision is indecision. Can't decide? Don't!

    6 weeks of further chaos, a Budget being attacked before it is read out and then is attacked on all sides as the Finance Bill goes through parliament. So we get indecision and no election is called. 2nd May is Brutal and the endless infighting intensifies.

    None of the dates that could follow look appealing and one by one they slip. The trailed mid November date means Sunak calling the election at Conference. You can see the problem with that. So he doesn't.

    Can the government be sustained? Yes - it will not lose a confidence vote. Will it actually govern? No. And the longer this goes on the worse it gets, which makes it less likely he will call an early election.

    So we go on. Until legally it expires. Insane yes, but none of the other options are sane either...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    I find your flippancy disturbing: nitrogen is an absolute killer. Every young people who dies suddenly, do you know what they have in common? nitrogen in their lungs. And yet no-one is willing to talk about it.
    I think you are 80% correct.
    I think that this ignores the far more deadly threat of Dihydrogen Monoxide. *Every* person who has ever died - tons of it in their body.
    How many tons?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,287
    edited January 24

    Legitimately, it has to be a GE in May surely? This cannot be sustained.

    I still think, whenever it is, the GE date will be determined on an 'every man for himself' not a 'good for the party' (and certainly not the country) basis.

    Bad polls or no, Sunak may.prefer to take his chances directly with a GE if he risks having to face the shame and damage of party leadership eliminator vote instead.

    Some Tory MPs who aren't resigned to seeing their majorities vaporised, but know they'll lose on current trajectory, will try to roll the dice and oust Sunak just because something, something might do better and save their own seat. No ideology, allegiance or favoured candidate on manoeuvres required.

    How it plays out, I'm not entirely sure, but it won't be pretty.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    I find your flippancy disturbing: nitrogen is an absolute killer. Every young people who dies suddenly, do you know what they have in common? nitrogen in their lungs. And yet no-one is willing to talk about it.
    I think you are 80% correct.
    I think that this ignores the far more deadly threat of Dihydrogen Monoxide. *Every* person who has ever died - tons of it in their body.
    How many tons?
    Literally tons.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Can’t believe this bloke started up an anti Brexit group with Femi, then Sunak gave him a job!


    What does it say about Rishi Sunak though that he actually hired this guy 🤦🏻‍♂️

    https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1750283911941308891?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590

    34 point lead in the marginals. It is over lol

    Is that a Sheffield Rally going on behind you?
    Fortunately for Labour, I don't see Starmer doing a "well all right" thing at a pre-election victory shindig.

    The opposite problem of looking slightly frightened of winning seems more likely.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590

    Bye bye Labour Majority. 👋🏻.

    Sunak’s British Homes for British Workers policy is about to add 20 points to Tory’s in the opinion polls.

    Tories are serious about winning this general election after all. I’m beginning to think Isaac Levido is very good at his job.

    Where is he planning to build them?
    Now, stop.asking practical questions about implementation. It's not fair when we all know that they have no intention of actually DOING anything.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589

    Legitimately, it has to be a GE in May surely? This cannot be sustained.

    That certainly was plan A. Declare a "Tax Cut" in November and rush it through. Spend the late winter ramping how things are getting better, then a Big Giveaway Budget early March and use the momentum to launch your election campaign.

    Supposedly chunks of Whitehall still thinks it is 2nd May. But I would be astonished now. Remember that the easiest decision is indecision. Can't decide? Don't!

    6 weeks of further chaos, a Budget being attacked before it is read out and then is attacked on all sides as the Finance Bill goes through parliament. So we get indecision and no election is called. 2nd May is Brutal and the endless infighting intensifies.

    None of the dates that could follow look appealing and one by one they slip. The trailed mid November date means Sunak calling the election at Conference. You can see the problem with that. So he doesn't.

    Can the government be sustained? Yes - it will not lose a confidence vote. Will it actually govern? No. And the longer this goes on the worse it gets, which makes it less likely he will call an early election.

    So we go on. Until legally it expires. Insane yes, but none of the other options are sane either...
    Too many Conservative MPs want to argue among themselves instead of governing.

    So a non-governing government for the rest of the year suits them well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Bye bye Labour Majority. 👋🏻.

    Sunak’s British Homes for British Workers policy is about to add 20 points to Tory’s in the opinion polls.

    Tories are serious about winning this general election after all. I’m beginning to think Isaac Levido is very good at his job.

    Where is he planning to build them?
    In the right place of course. It theoretically exists I suppose.

    In any case the government has severe credibility problems - they might have some great ideas, but who is going to believe even those ideas will happen? And even then would then reward the government for those ideas?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    I find your flippancy disturbing: nitrogen is an absolute killer. Every young people who dies suddenly, do you know what they have in common? nitrogen in their lungs. And yet no-one is willing to talk about it.
    I think you are 80% correct.
    I think that this ignores the far more deadly threat of Dihydrogen Monoxide. *Every* person who has ever died - tons of it in their body.
    How many tons?
    About 0.06 tonnes at a guess.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,574
    edited January 24
    Scott_xP said:

    @Telegraph
    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Rishi Sunak offers to sacrifice Brexit freedoms to re-establish government in Northern Ireland

    Interesting report on what Labour might actually seek from the 5 year TCA review, the commentary on how plausible it might be:

    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/reviewing-the-trade-and-cooperation-agreement/

    Summary: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/will-the-2026-tca-review-reshape-uk-eu-relations/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,659
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    I find your flippancy disturbing: nitrogen is an absolute killer. Every young people who dies suddenly, do you know what they have in common? nitrogen in their lungs. And yet no-one is willing to talk about it.
    I think you are 80% correct.
    In his back garden and they will fall be Rishi size
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @itvpeston
    🚨NEW

    Labour has a 34 point lead over the Conservatives in 150 key target seats, per exclusive @thefabians analysis

    This is 10 points higher than the national average 👀

    GB
    🌹LAB 46%
    🌳CON 22%

    TARGET SEATS
    🌹LAB 52%
    🌳CON 18%

    💻LIVE 9PM
    @itvpeston

    📺10.45PM
    @ITV


    #Peston

    Lab on 498 seats, and REFUK on one...

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=22&LAB=46&LIB=11&Reform=12&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=33.1&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1.5&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.9&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Electoral Calculus is hopeless. Labour is really not going to win Bicester & Woodstock or Didcot & Wantage.
    What's weird about Bicester & Woodstock going Labour (or LD)?

    Add up the votes in the May 2023 locals and it's clear that, even 8 months ago, the Tories had been utterly routed throughout this constituency - and it was only Labour obduracy that was letting the Tories survive as a minority ruling party in Cherwell district (where the Bicester bit is)

    The question worth asking in B&W is whether Labour grab it at the next GE or the LibDems do. And it's how voters in the area are currently voting that matters - not what they did in 2019 when keeping Corbyn's hands off our nuclear codes that mattered.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Bye bye Labour Majority. 👋🏻.

    Sunak’s British Homes for British Workers policy is about to add 20 points to Tory’s in the opinion polls.

    Tories are serious about winning this general election after all. I’m beginning to think Isaac Levido is very good at his job.

    I take it you’re being sarcastic ! It’s yet more desperate and transparent attempts by the spineless gimp. At least Bozo gave us a few laughs . Sunak looks like a pathetic whiny child throwing a tantrum .
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited January 24
    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    An oddity of this abominable subject is that when it comes to executions the argument is constantly made that there is no humane and reliable way of doing it, but when it comes to assisted dying this matter in not raised by its supporters.

    I oppose executions and support assisted dying but I am reasonably sure that more or less identical mechanics can apply to how it works.
    There is a potential difference: the small matter of cooperation - both by the subject and by the other persons involved. Happily I'm not an expert, but one thing for sure, executioners didn't need a MD in the old days, just a week's training in some prison somewhere, at least in the UK.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited January 24

    Bye bye Labour Majority. 👋🏻.

    Sunak’s British Homes for British Workers policy is about to add 20 points to Tory’s in the opinion polls.

    Tories are serious about winning this general election after all. I’m beginning to think Isaac Levido is very good at his job.

    Where is he planning to build them?
    I don’t think he is planning to build anything, just have a policy of British Homes for British Workers

    Only British citizens can be at the front of the queues

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/24/tory-social-housing-plan-aims-to-prioritise-british-homes-for-british-workers
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    Tristan Hunt on BBC News (as V&A person).

    He could have been a few months away from being a senior member of a Lab Cabinet if he had stuck around as an MP.

    Chuka has to be the stupidest.
    Say what you like about the CHUKs, but they did actually stand by the fact they couldn't abide Corbyn and try to do something about it - and may have even played a role in the fact Labour is where it is now. Given Labour's poll ratings began their decline as they came on the scene and began a move in general towards Labour people saying what they thought about their leader in a more concrete way.

    Which is more than can be said for those who slunk off anonymously into more cushy jobs.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241
    Pro_Rata said:

    Bye bye Labour Majority. 👋🏻.

    Sunak’s British Homes for British Workers policy is about to add 20 points to Tory’s in the opinion polls.

    Tories are serious about winning this general election after all. I’m beginning to think Isaac Levido is very good at his job.

    Where is he planning to build them?
    Rwanda
    I did a Google search on British homes for British workers… the top hit was from a website called “unexplained mysteries”…
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    A new high of scientific illiteracy from the BBC in its report of the forthcoming execution of a man in the USA in which "toxic [sic] nitrogen will be pumped [sic] into his body through a mask".

    A couple of days ago the BBC gave credence to a scare story about the possibility of notrogen "leaking from the mask and killing others in the room".

    An oddity of this abominable subject is that when it comes to executions the argument is constantly made that there is no humane and reliable way of doing it, but when it comes to assisted dying this matter in not raised by its supporters.

    I oppose executions and support assisted dying but I am reasonably sure that more or less identical mechanics can apply to how it works.
    There is a potential difference: the small matter of cooperation - both by the subject and by the other persons involved. Happily I'm not an expert, but one thing for sure, executioners didn't need a MD in the old days, just a week's training in some prison somewhere, at least in the UK.
    That's the advantage of gas chambers, electric chair, hangman's noose etc. No medical input required. Anyone can do it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    Flanner said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @itvpeston
    🚨NEW

    Labour has a 34 point lead over the Conservatives in 150 key target seats, per exclusive @thefabians analysis

    This is 10 points higher than the national average 👀

    GB
    🌹LAB 46%
    🌳CON 22%

    TARGET SEATS
    🌹LAB 52%
    🌳CON 18%

    💻LIVE 9PM
    @itvpeston

    📺10.45PM
    @ITV


    #Peston

    Lab on 498 seats, and REFUK on one...

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=22&LAB=46&LIB=11&Reform=12&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=33.1&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1.5&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.9&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Electoral Calculus is hopeless. Labour is really not going to win Bicester & Woodstock or Didcot & Wantage.
    What's weird about Bicester & Woodstock going Labour (or LD)?

    Add up the votes in the May 2023 locals and it's clear that, even 8 months ago, the Tories had been utterly routed throughout this constituency - and it was only Labour obduracy that was letting the Tories survive as a minority ruling party in Cherwell district (where the Bicester bit is)

    The question worth asking in B&W is whether Labour grab it at the next GE or the LibDems do. And it's how voters in the area are currently voting that matters - not what they did in 2019 when keeping Corbyn's hands off our nuclear codes that mattered.
    If anything like the current polling comes to pass then there will be many surprising seats that flip. Why not this one amongst them?
This discussion has been closed.