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Sunak is a liability in contrast to Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Sunak is a liability in contrast to Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Starmer's numbers are more stable – a small dip but the public are still more likely to say he's an asset to Labour. Overall 37% say he's an asset to Labour to 28% that he isn't compared to 40% to 28% in Labour. Overall Starmer is a net asset +9, Sunak -17 pic.twitter.com/QmV7G83NXr
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His epitaph will be not as nutty as Truss or not as sleazy as Boris Johnson.
@JohnRentoul
Important story from Andrew Grice, which fits with what I hear
@JohnRentoul
Compare with what David Cameron said to @bbclaurak last weekend
As for Sunak's epitaph - I said back in 2019 it's the last Conservative Prime Minister.
Yes I know we've had 2 more since then because Bozo screwed up and they then picked the world's worst candidate but the point is the same Brexit left the party going down a dead end with no way of return..
Gauke ? Grieve ? Hammond ? Stewart ?
Nope. I do not see it. I think there is just a lack of any strong talent in either of the main parties. Especially the Tories.
https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1749171977825173952
Similar scenes in other German cities.
But this group are probably the most upset by his absurd focus on Rwandan nonsense. Whilst it might bolster him somewhat with the red wallers/Brexiteers it is materially undermining him with this group (which, once upon a time might also have been called one nation Conservatives). And he needs this group even more than the Brexiteers.
If he continues to pivot towards culture war he's not going to convince the hard core nationalists but he is going to erode a lot of that (rather unearned) quiet competence reputation among the Cameronites.
The funny thing is I think the best thing Labour could do for the Tory party is to introduce some form of AV / PR as it would allow the party to split into the separate warring fractions that currently seek to dominate it...
Why on earth would the French agree to this when they have a far larger illegal immigrant problem than us already? What on earth is in it for them? There is not a chance in hell that Starmer would ever get this.
Perhaps it needs a Labour government to get the necessary reforms through, past the emotion?
We could of course knock this on the head by a mixture of much more rapid on-shore processing, a returns policy, and opening up a pan-European asylum processing system where everyone takes their fair share rather than frontline states like Italy and Greece bearing the brunt, but understandably Britain with its privileged geography and much lower numbers isn't going to want to go there.
Also labour could fracture to into a social democratic parts, a party of the left and a corbynite party with the likes of Zarah Sultana and Nadia Whittome
He can't understand why "stop the boats" isn't stopping the boats, and why people who call themselves Conservative aren't cheering "Get Rwanda Done"
He is a talentless politician, playing a very poor hand, very badly.
When he is finally put out of our misery, there will be much rejoicing.
First was Red Wall Theory. That added the votes of socially conservative northerners to the party. Extra votes, sure, but at the cost of changing the shape of the party. Now that socially liberal working age professionals have clocked what's going on (and they're not help in place by fear of Corbyn), they're off.
The other, possibly more important, is the Dump The Leader meme. It worked in the unusual circumstances of 1990, but the party took the wrong lesson from that. Now it's the default reaction whenever there's a problem or a disagreement. Which makes the party pretty ungovernable.
Sunak was a beacon of sense and stability during COVID-19 and he still retains that reputation to a degree - even the Rwanda stuff is nowhere near as high profile as furlough, eat out to help out etc. But it's eroding away.
In an alternative universe, Sunak adopted a steady-as-she-goes approach, retained HS2, made vague long term interventions in public health, allowed fiscal drag to suppress demand (and therefore inflation) and to close the deficit before the election, all while waiting for Hamas/Houthis to stir things up a bit.
Equally how do you solve the problem - a lot of America’s industry is based on abusing illegal immigrants until they become legal and move on to better paid options
"Three attacked in Leicester Square ‘for being Jewish’
Police were called 10 times but failed to show up, claims victim of alleged hate crime"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/21/three-attacked-leicester-square-being-jewish-speak-hebrew/
Stop The Boats. Build The Wall. Maths and engineering say they are both absurd to an impossible degree, and neither really solves the problem.
But at a symbolic level, both policies are seen as desirable.
It's not great if Starmer's team are lying like this - making absurd promises which will never eventuate - many months before they even take office
Biden will be viewed by history as a much better President than the electorate gave him credit, but he dropped this ball.
So the border states have started shipping illegal immigrants to the places that said they are welcome.
https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1749165679847067675
When even Jon Sopel notices..
Hindi is a language (which, along with Urdu, is simply one version of Hindustani).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindustani_language
Speaking of which, right-wing Modi opens a temple on the site of the Ayodhya mosque demolished by right-wing nutters in 1992:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-68003095
This division can be exposed by 'events'.
Visible most clearly in both a large majority of Jews and a large majority of Jew haters voting Dem.
While on immigration a significant number of Dems seem to oppose any sort of border control at all.
DeSantis: You can be the most worthless Republican in America, if you kiss the ring, Trump will say you are wonderful.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1746712953275994215
Of course the situation in the Channel or Texas would have to get vastly worse before any government considered this ultimate, desolate and inhumane option - but if it occurred, that would solve the problem instantly. Violence is, also, the inevitable endpoint if illegal migration continues and worsens, and no other alternative is found
Which is one reason we desperately need to solve this, now, and humanely
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65iwnI2hjAA
Trump's wall was Patel/Braverman's Rwanda. Plans so absurd that they generate a wild over reaction by opponents.
Unless they are actually holding the election in May, I don't see how they can do the whole 'cut tax & leave Labour to sort out the resulting spending cuts' thing without it first biting them.
More than 40 Tory MPs call for extra council funding
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68046627
In the end if illegal immigration just gets worse and worse, governments will be forced to extreme methods to deter it
We can already see it in parts of the world. It is also a particular hazard on the US Southern Border, where the local citizens are well armed, and generally not known for accepting fate with stoic pacifism
https://twitter.com/JackTShaw/status/1749355870490652971
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-68040787
Clearly we need an ITV drama and some Cyclefree headers.
Saying "there will be blood" is just posturing and alarmist. And has been shown in the UK not to be the case.
I struggle to work out how, somewhere along the line, this became controversial.
What chance that in 10 years time we have a public sector more in line with the French one?
This will be classed as bias because the BBC should be a mouthpiece for No 10.
The Tories have no problem with bias as long as it’s arse licking them !
But we agree on the wide range of Dem politicians.
Sunak's problem is that beyond his core Tory support, he next appeals most to centrist liberals, who he is battling Starmer for as Sir Keir also polls strongly with that group. Redwall and working class Leavers however have leaked from the Tories to Reform since Boris left with Sunak having much left appeal to that group
I specifically and carefully said "if illegal immigration continues and WORSENS"
That's the key word. WORSENS. Look, I said it, up there. WORSENS
Then I said, in reply to you
"In the end if illegal immigration just gets worse and worse"
There, again, my actual words - "worse and worse"
You do this quite a lot. Mischaracterise comments, or deliberately misquote, to try and 'win' some argument. It is stupid and childish. Stop it
As an example (n=1)
I have a friend in his early 30s.Sensible and well educated (Oxbridge I think but possibly Imperial). Solid Thatcherite right economically; articulate and intelligent. Local councillor
All that notwithstanding, he wants to be an MP (goodness knows why!)
And central office vetoed him because his uncle was an MP in the Thatcher/Major era and made some enemies at the time.
It’s just insane.
But if we are then Jeez. Why did it take the coppers 28 minutes to get to.... Leicester Square?!
They weren't being summoned to the Isle of Foula
But what is worsen? Has or hasn't illegal immigration worsened over the past 60 years. I mean what is the flow rate it has to be above for it to be worse than previously.
Very unlike you I have to say. Living in the heart of a cosmopolitan city with a huge mix of people from all over the world now saying mark my words we'll be like the southern states of the US if this carries on.
Your premise is false and there is no shame in admitting it.
I have had a sudden epiphany. That would explain much of your commentary
Is this the sort of violence you are talking about btw.
'After Mr DeSantis' announcement, the Trump campaign called on all Republicans to rally behind Mr Trump, slamming his former UN Ambassador as "the candidate of the globalists and Democrats who will do everything to stop the America First movement".'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68051757
You have woken up (or had your first Mojito if you are still travelling) and thought you would make some kind of incisive comment about immigration. Fair enough, we've all thought - how can I wow PB today. You then said there would be violence if illegal immigration worsens.
But that is just hyperbolic bollocks. You say look at the southern US to see how this plays out when I would say that we are as a nation about as far from the southern US ideologically as we are physically. I mean you count the period since our last mass shooting in years, not hours, as in the US.
So you are just scaremongering and being alarmist and as I said, we have had it all before, noticeably 55 years ago in Birmingham (W Midlands, not Alabama).
I knew he was maverick and unusually conservative, for a Hollywood writer, but didn't know he actual pro-Donald
He doesn't mince words and his vituperation is great entertainment; lots of choice quotes here
https://unherd.com/2024/01/david-mamet-on-hollywood-hamas-and-donald-trump/
" What always happens, going back to the fall of Jerusalem, is that when things get tough, people turn on the Jews. It’s the equivalent of kicking the cat or screaming at the secretary."
"The most terrible thing in the world was the idea that there were certain crimes which are hate crimes. The question is not what did the person do, but what do we think about their motives in regard to certain societal norms which we have today. There’s no such thing as a love crime. All crimes are hate crimes, right?"
That’s the issue. The Tories talk a lot about Rwanda, but they’re not doing the basics.
Probably Sunak's best chance in the Blue Wall is a split LD/Lab vote allowing the incumbent Tories to cling on.
1. Illegals deliberately arriving with no documents or paperwork, meaning that it costs a lot of time and money to even work out who they are.
2. Organised groups of British individuals funding limitless appeals and legal processes, including harrasment of airlines.
Fix those two issues, the first with Rwanda or the Falklands, and the second by legislating for a single appeal before automatic deportation, and the problem gets a lot easier.