Vorderman isn’t going to make any impact or difference to the GE. She preaches to the already converted. She has also, as I noted the other day, gone completely off the deep end.
Preaching to the converted is not pointless or without impact. It is a key part of getting out the vote.
She has 947 000 followers on twitter.
Those people are going to be motivated enough without her ramblings.
I'm 100% certain now that Keir Starmer will be PM after the next election, because even a lot of Tories have had enough of the party after 14 years. But it could still be difficult for Lab to win a working majority for various reasons, one of which is the new boundaries.
The assumption that the Tories will benefit from the boundary changes is weakened by the scaleof apparent change in voting intention since the last election.
The only thing that can help the Tories in many seats will be a split opposition.
The tactical voting battles will be more complex with boundary changes. It’ll be harder for voters to work out who the main challenger is in many cases.
Given the importance of incumbency and past second places to the Lib Dems you’d think this will probably hinder their chances. The one counter to this being that in areas where Labour were second in the old seats last time but with no record on the new one, and Lib Dems are strong on the local council in those wards, tgis potentially helps with the bar charts.
That is where I think Carol Vorderman comes in - I think her telling people who to vote for will ensure a fair few votes end up going in the direction she suggests.
Really, apart from a few on twitter/social media who hang on her every word and were not likely to vote Tory anyway, will it really make a difference. She needs to influence people who are not receptive to her message and she comes over as somewhat unhinged in her posts.
I cannot see it.
She may come over as unhinged, but that isn't necessarily a problem, as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. It is a matter of directing their anger at the real elite rather than some made up confection.
"... as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. "
This sort of comment amuses me. The person who says it always, of course, puts themselves on the 'unhinged' side.
Incoherent rage is a common political feeling at present, and many have political views that don't fit neatly into boxes, including me. Eclectic might be a polite term for it. An interesting article here:
Vorderman isn’t going to make any impact or difference to the GE. She preaches to the already converted. She has also, as I noted the other day, gone completely off the deep end.
She lacks the grace and measure of Rachel Riley.
With her strange personal life on top it's clear she's quite unhinged.
Green continuing their slow and inexplicable slide. You’d think Gaza etc would have given them a boost. I can’t remember the last time I saw them up in a poll.
Maybe in winter people spend less time outside in the countryside and worry less about warming. I’ll have a look at their numbers to see if I can glean an annual cycle.
Before too may get too exited about a massive Labour majority, some people like me who are fed up with this Govt will still vote Conservative to make sure there isn't a massive Labour majority imho. Labour will win but I doubt it will be Blair territory. Voters know what happens when Govts get massive majorities...
If that becomes a popular thought you get yourself another 5 Tory years, much like 1992.
Green continuing their slow and inexplicable slide. You’d think Gaza etc would have given them a boost. I can’t remember the last time I saw them up in a poll.
Maybe in winter people spend less time outside in the countryside and worry less about warming. I’ll have a look at their numbers to see if I can glean an annual cycle.
Swingbacky type effect? "Not keen on Starmer, but in a two horse race, he's better than Sunak".
The Con to Reform swing isn't just bad in itself, it's really bad timing.
Green continuing their slow and inexplicable slide. You’d think Gaza etc would have given them a boost. I can’t remember the last time I saw them up in a poll.
Maybe in winter people spend less time outside in the countryside and worry less about warming. I’ll have a look at their numbers to see if I can glean an annual cycle.
I suspect the Greens will have good local elections, but in the GE be heavily squeezed by Lab and LD. That may be happening already.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
I'm 100% certain now that Keir Starmer will be PM after the next election, because even a lot of Tories have had enough of the party after 14 years. But it could still be difficult for Lab to win a working majority for various reasons, one of which is the new boundaries.
The assumption that the Tories will benefit from the boundary changes is weakened by the scaleof apparent change in voting intention since the last election.
The only thing that can help the Tories in many seats will be a split opposition.
The flaw in the assessment of the new boundaries is that they work from the result last time.
It would be interesting to see a comparison of the results from old and new boundaries at a range of polling outcomes, including the current national VI.
Playing round with electoral calculus - the first seat Reform wins is 30p Lee (Anderson)'s in Ashfield.
You can see why he is so concerned about Reform - because it's his seat (yet very few others)..
They might keep their deposit on a good day!
Don’t be so sure. Events dear boy. If 30p decides that defecting to RefUK is good for his media career then he’ll do it. And it is. And he has more chance of winning on a Farage platform than he does a Sunak one.
I don't think I see that happening, as Ashfield was barely in the top 100 performing seats for the Brexit Party in 2019.
But it's difficult to judge, as I have no idea what will happen to the Ashfield Independent vote.
If Labour get a good candidate, they may take it.
Would Anderson defect? No idea. I'm not sure what he has left to lose.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
Excellent. If that means I don’t have to play for another sodding let’s-venerate-the-Royals service then I’m 100% up for it.
I got sufficiently hacked off with the stream of them last year that I ended up playing Howells’ Psalm Prelude ‘de Profundis’ as the voluntary for the service marking Ol’ Big Ears’ coronation. It is not a joyful piece.
Interesting thought, the coronation equivalent of a registrar's wedding.
If he wants to look at it, starting a conversation 20 years in advance is a good way to begin.
@sandpit apologies but I didn't reply to a post you made yesterday re Trump and democracy in reply to one of my posts. It put me on the spot because I appreciated the post, in particular the conciliatory way you responded to me while disagreeing. I wanted to 'like' but that didn't seem appropriate seeing as I disagreed and I didn't have a response as both our positions are quite clear and subjective opinions.
After the thread ended I then realised the appropriate response was to say I hope if Trump does get elected you are right and I am wrong re the outcome of his 2nd term. Let's hope we never find out.
My point about more to come on fuel is simple. The Suez Canal is effectively shut, with ships diverting around the cape. We also have the Middle East boiling over into various spats. That means higher fuel prices and much much higher shipping costs.
Happily we are increasingly producing energy via wind and solar…
True, but like with fossil fuels, energy prices are still influenced by world markets. The "100% renewable" tariff that many of us are on is snakeoil. We really need the rest of the world to switch to renewables, or for us to develop some sort of financial mechanism that offers protection to consumers on such tariffs, if we are to cite renewables as a source of energy security.
Otoh, my social media feeds are full of people showing off their heat pumps working in sub-zero temperatures. Along with solar panels, that is where the real security for individual households will be found.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
The Biden team need to be much, much sharper on the messaging. Trump has got his campaign themes down: he will get things done, he will sort the border, and he will stabilise the international situation. Easy to remember propositions, attractive to many voters even if a number have personal distaste with his style and some of his more extreme ramblings.
Biden doesn’t have much yet rather than the threat to democracy, which should be a slam dunk but isn’t, so they need a new tack. What have they done right and what will they do to make things better. He cant afford to make the next election simply a referendum on Trump, because Trump thrives when everything is made all about him.
I still remain of the view that if Trump is the nominee, Biden will win. But the Democrats need to move on from the “should he/shouldn’t he run” debate now and get all in on the campaign.
Green continuing their slow and inexplicable slide. You’d think Gaza etc would have given them a boost. I can’t remember the last time I saw them up in a poll.
Maybe in winter people spend less time outside in the countryside and worry less about warming. I’ll have a look at their numbers to see if I can glean an annual cycle.
I suspect the Greens will have good local elections, but in the GE be heavily squeezed by Lab and LD. That may be happening already.
Their local campaigns are more likely to focus on environmental issues that impact the local community and attract votes, whereas at a national level they just wibble on about whatever woke shite is in fashion.
Green continuing their slow and inexplicable slide. You’d think Gaza etc would have given them a boost. I can’t remember the last time I saw them up in a poll.
Maybe in winter people spend less time outside in the countryside and worry less about warming. I’ll have a look at their numbers to see if I can glean an annual cycle.
I suspect the Greens will have good local elections, but in the GE be heavily squeezed by Lab and LD. That may be happening already.
Their local campaigns are more likely to focus on environmental issues that impact the local community and attract votes, whereas at a national level they just wibble on about whatever woke shite is in fashion.
Yep - the Green policy platform at a local authority level is deeply attractive to people like me. The only reservation is that their councillors curently spend the whole time on pro-palestine marches rather than bashing landlords and building cycle lanes as they normally would.
Green continuing their slow and inexplicable slide. You’d think Gaza etc would have given them a boost. I can’t remember the last time I saw them up in a poll.
Maybe in winter people spend less time outside in the countryside and worry less about warming. I’ll have a look at their numbers to see if I can glean an annual cycle.
I suspect the Greens will have good local elections, but in the GE be heavily squeezed by Lab and LD. That may be happening already.
Their local campaigns are more likely to focus on environmental issues that impact the local community and attract votes, whereas at a national level they just wibble on about whatever woke shite is in fashion.
Their local campaigns are usually mostly LD/Independent tribute acts: local activism mixed with 'being a nice person'. It's only once they get some numbers and start influencing policy that their wider priorities tend to emerge.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
The Biden team need to be much, much sharper on the messaging. Trump has got his campaign themes down: he will get things done, he will sort the border, and he will stabilise the international situation. Easy to remember propositions, attractive to many voters even if a number have personal distaste with his style and some of his more extreme ramblings.
Biden doesn’t have much yet rather than the threat to democracy, which should be a slam dunk but isn’t, so they need a new tack. What have they done right and what will they do to make things better. He cant afford to make the next election simply a referendum on Trump, because Trump thrives when everything is made all about him.
I still remain of the view that if Trump is the nominee, Biden will win. But the Democrats need to move on from the “should he/shouldn’t he run” debate now and get all in on the campaign.
Correct. The positive campaign runs itself whoever the GOP opponent is anyway, so Biden may as well get on with it.
In a choice between democracy and security, people invariably choose security - and then lose it anyway, along with much else.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
The Biden team need to be much, much sharper on the messaging. Trump has got his campaign themes down: he will get things done, he will sort the border, and he will stabilise the international situation. Easy to remember propositions, attractive to many voters even if a number have personal distaste with his style and some of his more extreme ramblings.
Biden doesn’t have much yet rather than the threat to democracy, which should be a slam dunk but isn’t, so they need a new tack. What have they done right and what will they do to make things better. He cant afford to make the next election simply a referendum on Trump, because Trump thrives when everything is made all about him.
I still remain of the view that if Trump is the nominee, Biden will win. But the Democrats need to move on from the “should he/shouldn’t he run” debate now and get all in on the campaign.
I had a nice chat with the husband of Georgia Democrat state rep yesterday. Firmly of the view that Trump would lose the general but Haley would win (even though she’s a “hard right firebrand”).
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
I'm 100% certain now that Keir Starmer will be PM after the next election, because even a lot of Tories have had enough of the party after 14 years. But it could still be difficult for Lab to win a working majority for various reasons, one of which is the new boundaries.
The assumption that the Tories will benefit from the boundary changes is weakened by the scaleof apparent change in voting intention since the last election.
The only thing that can help the Tories in many seats will be a split opposition.
The flaw in the assessment of the new boundaries is that they work from the result last time.
It would be interesting to see a comparison of the results from old and new boundaries at a range of polling outcomes, including the current national VI.
Playing round with electoral calculus - the first seat Reform wins is 30p Lee (Anderson)'s in Ashfield.
You can see why he is so concerned about Reform - because it's his seat (yet very few others)..
They might keep their deposit on a good day!
Don’t be so sure. Events dear boy. If 30p decides that defecting to RefUK is good for his media career then he’ll do it. And it is. And he has more chance of winning on a Farage platform than he does a Sunak one.
I don't think I see that happening, as Ashfield was barely in the top 100 performing seats for the Brexit Party in 2019.
But it's difficult to judge, as I have no idea what will happen to the Ashfield Independent vote.
If Labour get a good candidate, they may take it.
Would Anderson defect? No idea. I'm not sure what he has left to lose.
Maybe Ashfield returned a low BxP share because Anderson was personally taking many of those votes. He's not exactly been quiet about his positioning. Plus, there's the Ashfield Indy complication, which must be an attractive option to some of the stuff-the-lot-of-you vote.
I'm 100% certain now that Keir Starmer will be PM after the next election, because even a lot of Tories have had enough of the party after 14 years. But it could still be difficult for Lab to win a working majority for various reasons, one of which is the new boundaries.
The assumption that the Tories will benefit from the boundary changes is weakened by the scaleof apparent change in voting intention since the last election.
The only thing that can help the Tories in many seats will be a split opposition.
The tactical voting battles will be more complex with boundary changes. It’ll be harder for voters to work out who the main challenger is in many cases.
Given the importance of incumbency and past second places to the Lib Dems you’d think this will probably hinder their chances. The one counter to this being that in areas where Labour were second in the old seats last time but with no record on the new one, and Lib Dems are strong on the local council in those wards, tgis potentially helps with the bar charts.
That is where I think Carol Vorderman comes in - I think her telling people who to vote for will ensure a fair few votes end up going in the direction she suggests.
Really, apart from a few on twitter/social media who hang on her every word and were not likely to vote Tory anyway, will it really make a difference. She needs to influence people who are not receptive to her message and she comes over as somewhat unhinged in her posts.
I cannot see it.
She may come over as unhinged, but that isn't necessarily a problem, as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. It is a matter of directing their anger at the real elite rather than some made up confection.
"... as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. "
This sort of comment amuses me. The person who says it always, of course, puts themselves on the 'unhinged' side.
Incoherent rage is a common political feeling at present, and many have political views that don't fit neatly into boxes, including me. Eclectic might be a polite term for it. An interesting article here:
Well worth a read. That's one of the best, most concise summaries of the complexities of current political views that I've seen. It also points to how hard it is these days to predict individuals', let along groups', voting behaviour. Superb.
Iran is pissing off a lot of different people recently.
To be fair to Iran, which I know they don't really deserve, responding to a terrorist outrage via an air strike on the alleged perpetrators is exactly the kind of thing that we or the US would do. I haven't heard anything about the casualties from our strikes on the Houthis, but Yemen also contains children so it wouldn't be altogether surprising if our strikes killed children too - they certainly have in the past. And let's not even discuss the situation in Gaza. Unfortunately there are a lot of folk chucking high explosives around in that neighbourhood right now and they do have a tendency to kill whoever happens to be nearby. Iran's actions here don't look especially anomalous.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
I'm 100% certain now that Keir Starmer will be PM after the next election, because even a lot of Tories have had enough of the party after 14 years. But it could still be difficult for Lab to win a working majority for various reasons, one of which is the new boundaries.
The assumption that the Tories will benefit from the boundary changes is weakened by the scaleof apparent change in voting intention since the last election.
The only thing that can help the Tories in many seats will be a split opposition.
The flaw in the assessment of the new boundaries is that they work from the result last time.
It would be interesting to see a comparison of the results from old and new boundaries at a range of polling outcomes, including the current national VI.
Playing round with electoral calculus - the first seat Reform wins is 30p Lee (Anderson)'s in Ashfield.
You can see why he is so concerned about Reform - because it's his seat (yet very few others)..
They might keep their deposit on a good day!
Don’t be so sure. Events dear boy. If 30p decides that defecting to RefUK is good for his media career then he’ll do it. And it is. And he has more chance of winning on a Farage platform than he does a Sunak one.
I don't think I see that happening, as Ashfield was barely in the top 100 performing seats for the Brexit Party in 2019.
But it's difficult to judge, as I have no idea what will happen to the Ashfield Independent vote.
If Labour get a good candidate, they may take it.
Would Anderson defect? No idea. I'm not sure what he has left to lose.
Maybe Ashfield returned a low BxP share because Anderson was personally taking many of those votes. He's not exactly been quiet about his positioning. Plus, there's the Ashfield Indy complication, which must be an attractive option to some of the stuff-the-lot-of-you vote.
Another complication arising from the Ashfield Independent situation is that, if their candidate wins this year, there could be a by-election next year as he faces trial on fraud charges in early 2025 (not in any way to comment on the merits or otherwise of the case, just that it is a possible outcome).
So Anderson may have half an eye on the fact that he could get a second bite of the cherry even if he loses his seat.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
It’s a bit of a myth that 2016 was a massive polling upset. If you looked closely at the state polling it was clear that Trump had a path to winning the electoral college.
Asked how long it will take to get flights off ground after Bill passes Parliament, the minister says 'it's not a matter of days or weeks'
So, does that mean it will take months?
"No, it is not days or weeks".
Hours? Even that would be too slow for some.
I think the government has some message management it needs to do. A BIG SHOWDOWN in how this is being billed, on the 3rd reading of the vote in the Commons. WILL SUNAK DEFEAT THE REBELS?
Lets say he does. That is not the bill passed. It then goes to the Lords. Who will tear it apart. Then we get tennis between the chambers. The government cannot force the Lords to pass a bill which breaches both international law and is contrary to the Tory manifesto.
But out there in normal land? People probably think tonight's vote passes the law. They will then expect flights. Not months and months and months of further debate and battles. Followed - even if it does eventually become law - with "not days or weeks" of delays.
How have they managed to dig themselves into this hole?
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
Part of it is “the system”, especially in the US. I know the weather in Iowa was bad earlier this week, but do I understand that turnout was low? If so, that might suggest that quite a few people who previously voted for Trump aren’t going to do so in the future. After all only about half of potential voters in the US actually do so.
I'm 100% certain now that Keir Starmer will be PM after the next election, because even a lot of Tories have had enough of the party after 14 years. But it could still be difficult for Lab to win a working majority for various reasons, one of which is the new boundaries.
The assumption that the Tories will benefit from the boundary changes is weakened by the scaleof apparent change in voting intention since the last election.
The only thing that can help the Tories in many seats will be a split opposition.
The tactical voting battles will be more complex with boundary changes. It’ll be harder for voters to work out who the main challenger is in many cases.
Given the importance of incumbency and past second places to the Lib Dems you’d think this will probably hinder their chances. The one counter to this being that in areas where Labour were second in the old seats last time but with no record on the new one, and Lib Dems are strong on the local council in those wards, tgis potentially helps with the bar charts.
That is where I think Carol Vorderman comes in - I think her telling people who to vote for will ensure a fair few votes end up going in the direction she suggests.
Really, apart from a few on twitter/social media who hang on her every word and were not likely to vote Tory anyway, will it really make a difference. She needs to influence people who are not receptive to her message and she comes over as somewhat unhinged in her posts.
I cannot see it.
She may come over as unhinged, but that isn't necessarily a problem, as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. It is a matter of directing their anger at the real elite rather than some made up confection.
"... as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. "
This sort of comment amuses me. The person who says it always, of course, puts themselves on the 'unhinged' side.
Incoherent rage is a common political feeling at present, and many have political views that don't fit neatly into boxes, including me. Eclectic might be a polite term for it. An interesting article here:
Well worth a read. That's one of the best, most concise summaries of the complexities of current political views that I've seen. It also points to how hard it is these days to predict individuals', let along groups', voting behaviour. Superb.
The mere pontifications of a typical Guardinista sociologist academic if you ask me.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
I’m no royalist but could be interesting to have an atheist king. What I saw of the last coronation (a few minutes) was utterly boring. I watched Soccer Saturday on SSN instead if I remember correctly. Wills’ upgrade is overdue.
A fun public transport morning for me. Up early to get the Euston train, smooth running through London Bridge and up to Euston, then realise I'm at the wrong station. It's going from Kings Cross. Rush back down to the tube, on to the Victoria line for one stop. But I've gone the wrong direction. Off at Warren St, back on in the right direction, finally arrive at KX with a couple of minutes to spare.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
Long time Apple denier and Android enthusiast here. A need to step up my video editing capabilities meant switching to a Macbook Pro. Its good. Very good. So I decided to go All In and now have an iPhone 15 Pro Max, Watch and Buds.
What amazes me is the seamless integration between them. Android / Google used to be able to do this, but it got progressively clunky in recent years. Yes there are still a few why-is-it-doing-that moments. But mostly I'm very happy having defected to the dark side...
Google generally is shit. The apps are ugly and haven’t progressed in years. I recently binned Google Maps for Apple Maps. I was surprised at the clear superiority of the latter.
A fun public transport morning for me. Up early to get the Euston train, smooth running through London Bridge and up to Euston, then realise I'm at the wrong station. It's going from Kings Cross. Rush back down to the tube, on to the Victoria line for one stop. But I've gone the wrong direction. Off at Warren St, back on in the right direction, finally arrive at KX with a couple of minutes to spare.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
Kings Cross to Euston is a strange one. Start at either station, go one stop north, get off, change line, go another stop north, and you end up back where you started.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
It’s a bit of a myth that 2016 was a massive polling upset. If you looked closely at the state polling it was clear that Trump had a path to winning the electoral college.
I well remember the path being extremely narrow even on rust belt state polling. 538 was aggregating all the polls days before the election and demonstrating - as they had successfully done in the prior election - that Hilary was odds on to win the EC and Trump would need a miracle.
The polling error wasn't large but it was there and it fell in all the right places for Trump.
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
I am most confused as to why the wider public are not blaming Starmer and his liberal establishment for the Post Office scandal? Surely it is now time for change, time for Rishi.
A fun public transport morning for me. Up early to get the Euston train, smooth running through London Bridge and up to Euston, then realise I'm at the wrong station. It's going from Kings Cross. Rush back down to the tube, on to the Victoria line for one stop. But I've gone the wrong direction. Off at Warren St, back on in the right direction, finally arrive at KX with a couple of minutes to spare.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
Kings Cross to Euston is a strange one. Start at either station, go one stop north, get off, change line, go another stop north, and you end up back where you started.
Precisely my problem. Applying geographical logic rather than actually looking at the tube map.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
It’s a bit of a myth that 2016 was a massive polling upset. If you looked closely at the state polling it was clear that Trump had a path to winning the electoral college.
Yes. Indeed, even on the national polls it was a miss but not a big one. Final polls had Clinton with a low single digit lead, and she led Trump in the actual election by 2%. Of course, because it's winner takes it all, being a percentage point out was rather crucial.
They were probably slightly more accurate than 2020, in fact, where Biden prevailed by five percentage points having led by 7-8.
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
I am most confused as to why the wider public are not blaming Starmer and his liberal establishment for the Post Office scandal? Surely it is now time for change, time for Rishi.
All these smears reminds the country that Starmer is a lawyer and the country loves a lawyer.
A fun public transport morning for me. Up early to get the Euston train, smooth running through London Bridge and up to Euston, then realise I'm at the wrong station. It's going from Kings Cross. Rush back down to the tube, on to the Victoria line for one stop. But I've gone the wrong direction. Off at Warren St, back on in the right direction, finally arrive at KX with a couple of minutes to spare.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
Indeed, and as Michael McIntyre notes saying hello to everyone you meet on the Tube would be… very weird behaviour.
@amandaakass No 10 source tells me "engagement is continuing" with MPs today - not quite the invite for bacon sandwiches and pastries with the PM we saw ahead of the vote before Christmas
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
I am most confused as to why the wider public are not blaming Starmer and his liberal establishment for the Post Office scandal? Surely it is now time for change, time for Rishi.
I am as always confused and maddened by Deltapoll's policy of only posting the Con, Lab and LD numbers and grouping everyone else in "other". You have to dig down into the tables to find out what Ref or Green are doing. Mad when Ref are scoring as high as the Lib Dems in several polls.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
It’s a bit of a myth that 2016 was a massive polling upset. If you looked closely at the state polling it was clear that Trump had a path to winning the electoral college.
I well remember the path being extremely narrow even on rust belt state polling. 538 was aggregating all the polls days before the election and demonstrating - as they had successfully done in the prior election - that Hilary was odds on to win the EC and Trump would need a miracle.
The polling error wasn't large but it was there and it fell in all the right places for Trump.
Looking this up the final 538 projection was that Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning. Hillary was odds-on (ie over 50%) but it was absolutely not saying that Trump would need a miracle.
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
But Biden seems to be going the wrong way in the polling at the moment - certainly looking at his approval figures over the last months. And have a look here: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_wOkNqe4.pdf First question: Country headed in right direction: 29% Country on wrong track: 61% Figures for Independents terrible here.
Inflation and immigration are the most important issues (though for Independents Health Care just beats immigration). I think Biden needs to convince enough people he has got those issues under control, then he's favorite. On immigration he's currently way behind Trump
Are you confident or uneasy about Joe Biden’s ability to deal wisely with immigration? Confident 27% Uneasy 57% Among Independents: Confident 16% Uneasy 64%
Are you confident or uneasy about Trump's ability to deal wisely with immigration? Confident 46% Uneasy 43% Among Independents: Confident 42% Uneasy 42%
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
I am most confused as to why the wider public are not blaming Starmer and his liberal establishment for the Post Office scandal? Surely it is now time for change, time for Rishi.
Ask @MexicanPete, he has been given us a running commentary on the matter for the past couple of months.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
I’m no royalist but could be interesting to have an atheist king. What I saw of the last coronation (a few minutes) was utterly boring. I watched Soccer Saturday on SSN instead if I remember correctly. Wills’ upgrade is overdue.
It was worth watching (although I didn’t) solely to imagine this blokes friends face. What a great long term joke
I told a friend *years* ago that Charles loves the Champions League theme and wants it played at his coronation. Hopefully collect the interest on that joke in about eight months.
A fun public transport morning for me. Up early to get the Euston train, smooth running through London Bridge and up to Euston, then realise I'm at the wrong station. It's going from Kings Cross. Rush back down to the tube, on to the Victoria line for one stop. But I've gone the wrong direction. Off at Warren St, back on in the right direction, finally arrive at KX with a couple of minutes to spare.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
Kings Cross to Euston is a strange one. Start at either station, go one stop north, get off, change line, go another stop north, and you end up back where you started.
Precisely my problem. Applying geographical logic rather than actually looking at the tube map.
In my commuting across London days, I used to vary my route. One thing I often found was tourists travelling the wrong way on the Piccadilly line, probably owing to its switch from giving north-south to east-west directions.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
I’m no royalist but could be interesting to have an atheist king. What I saw of the last coronation (a few minutes) was utterly boring. I watched Soccer Saturday on SSN instead if I remember correctly. Wills’ upgrade is overdue.
It was worth watching (although I didn’t) solely to imagine this blokes friends face. What a great long term joke
I told a friend *years* ago that Charles loves the Champions League theme and wants it played at his coronation. Hopefully collect the interest on that joke in about eight months.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
The issue with that is if a King William ceased to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England, or at least protector of it as he is of the Church of Scotland or the King of Denmark is for the Lutheran Church of Denmark, it opens the way for the Roman Catholic church to be the national church again. Indeed in time if the RC church agreed to have women priests it could well see the Church of England merge back into the Roman Catholic church as if the monarch is not to be its Supreme Governor there is nothing to stop the Pope heading it again (with some of the more evangelical elements perhaps becoming Baptist or Pentecostal)
A fun public transport morning for me. Up early to get the Euston train, smooth running through London Bridge and up to Euston, then realise I'm at the wrong station. It's going from Kings Cross. Rush back down to the tube, on to the Victoria line for one stop. But I've gone the wrong direction. Off at Warren St, back on in the right direction, finally arrive at KX with a couple of minutes to spare.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
I've not regularly travelled on the DLR for many years but used to get it home from Bank every day.
The great thing about that was that the platform is much longer than the train, it sits for ages at Bank, and there is no driver. So I used to sit at the front and, when someone who was obviously a tourist appeared at the end of the platform, I'd gesture wildly to them as if they'd better run or they'd miss it. They'd do so, then we'd all be sat there for five or ten minutes.
I'm probably going to hell for that, but it amused me at the time and I stand by it.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
The issue with that is if a King William if ceased to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England, or at least protector of it as he is of the Church of Scotland or the King of Denmark is for the Lutheran Church of Denmark, it opens the way for the Roman Catholic church to be the national church again. Indeed in time if the RC church agreed to have women priests it could well see the Church of England merge back into the Roman Catholic church as if the monarch is not to be its Supreme Governor there is nothing to stop the Pope heading it again (with some of the more evangelical elements perhaps becoming Baptist or Pentecostal)
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
But Biden seems to be going the wrong way in the polling at the moment - certainly looking at his approval figures over the last months. And have a look here: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_wOkNqe4.pdf First question: Country headed in right direction: 29% Country on wrong track: 61% Figures for Independents terrible here.
Inflation and immigration are the most important issues (though for Independents Health Care just beats immigration). I think Biden needs to convince enough people he has got those issues under control, then he's favorite. On immigration he's currently way behind Trump
Are you confident or uneasy about Joe Biden’s ability to deal wisely with immigration? Confident 27% Uneasy 57% Among Independents: Confident 16% Uneasy 64%
Are you confident or uneasy about Trump's ability to deal wisely with immigration? Confident 46% Uneasy 43% Among Independents: Confident 42% Uneasy 42%
Voters are also concerned about unemployment - even though the figures are the best for three decades.
France is doing comparatively well on demographics already, compared with most of its European neighbours.
Quickest route to demographic rearmament of course is to open the doors to immigration, as the history of the US shows. But with his main opponent being Marine Le Pen Macron’s unlikely to make that call.
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
I am most confused as to why the wider public are not blaming Starmer and his liberal establishment for the Post Office scandal? Surely it is now time for change, time for Rishi.
All these smears reminds the country that Starmer is a lawyer and the country loves a lawyer.
"I don't believe it. I don't believe it! You're meant to come down here and defend me against these characters, and the only one I've got on my side is the blood-sucking lawyer!"
A fun public transport morning for me. Up early to get the Euston train, smooth running through London Bridge and up to Euston, then realise I'm at the wrong station. It's going from Kings Cross. Rush back down to the tube, on to the Victoria line for one stop. But I've gone the wrong direction. Off at Warren St, back on in the right direction, finally arrive at KX with a couple of minutes to spare.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
Kings Cross to Euston is a strange one. Start at either station, go one stop north, get off, change line, go another stop north, and you end up back where you started.
Precisely my problem. Applying geographical logic rather than actually looking at the tube map.
Paddington is only 10 minutes walk from Lancaster Gate, yet they seem a LONG way apart on the tube map!
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
Yes, and the two polls produce almost identical results - the apparent movement is correcting slightly different results last time. There seems little reason not to think that this is the settled position.
It's worth comparing to 2019 to appreciate the magnitude:
Con 43.6% (so now minus 16 points) Lab 32.1% (so now plus 12) LD 7.4% (so now plus 3)
14% swing Con to Lab, 9.5% Con to LD, 4.5% LD to Lab.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
The issue with that is if a King William ceased to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England, or at least protector of it as he is of the Church of Scotland or the King of Denmark is for the Lutheran Church of Denmark, it opens the way for the Roman Catholic church to be the national church again. Indeed in time if the RC church agreed to have women priests it could well see the Church of England merge back into the Roman Catholic church as if the monarch is not to be its Supreme Governor there is nothing to stop the Pope heading it again (with some of the more evangelical elements perhaps becoming Baptist or Pentecostal)
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins. A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
If the Tories were polling the same vs Labour as Biden is vs Trump (ahead in some, behind in others, up a few points since autumn) and winning some local head to head contests like the Dems are, we'd be safely piling in on a Tory majority or at least largest party at the next election. Contrary to the suggestion it's wishcasting to predict a Biden victory, I think there's a lot of fearcasting out there.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
But Biden seems to be going the wrong way in the polling at the moment - certainly looking at his approval figures over the last months. And have a look here: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_wOkNqe4.pdf First question: Country headed in right direction: 29% Country on wrong track: 61% Figures for Independents terrible here.
Inflation and immigration are the most important issues (though for Independents Health Care just beats immigration). I think Biden needs to convince enough people he has got those issues under control, then he's favorite. On immigration he's currently way behind Trump
Are you confident or uneasy about Joe Biden’s ability to deal wisely with immigration? Confident 27% Uneasy 57% Among Independents: Confident 16% Uneasy 64%
Are you confident or uneasy about Trump's ability to deal wisely with immigration? Confident 46% Uneasy 43% Among Independents: Confident 42% Uneasy 42%
Voters are also concerned about unemployment - even though the figures are the best for three decades.
Maybe, but the poll above has 'Jobs and the economy' as the most important issue for just 9% - in 4th place.
A fun public transport morning for me. Up early to get the Euston train, smooth running through London Bridge and up to Euston, then realise I'm at the wrong station. It's going from Kings Cross. Rush back down to the tube, on to the Victoria line for one stop. But I've gone the wrong direction. Off at Warren St, back on in the right direction, finally arrive at KX with a couple of minutes to spare.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
Have I missed any out? Pics of every station in London - all 611 of them!
France is doing comparatively well on demographics already, compared with most of its European neighbours.
Quickest route to demographic rearmament of course is to open the doors to immigration, as the history of the US shows. But with his main opponent being Marine Le Pen Macron’s unlikely to make that call.
France's welfare system for supporting children is much more generous than ours, and already encourages larger families - which is probably why their fertility rate is the highest in Western Europe, I think. Tweaking child benefits may be a more effective, and more politically acceptable, route to 'demographic rearmament', as Macron put it. But of course that would mean higher tax rates, so we wouldn't do it.
France is doing comparatively well on demographics already, compared with most of its European neighbours.
Quickest route to demographic rearmament of course is to open the doors to immigration, as the history of the US shows. But with his main opponent being Marine Le Pen Macron’s unlikely to make that call.
France's welfare system for supporting children is much more generous than ours, and already encourages larger families - which is probably why their fertility rate is the highest in Western Europe, I think. Tweaking child benefits may be a more effective, and more politically acceptable, route to 'demographic rearmament', as Macron put it. But of course that would mean higher tax rates, so we wouldn't do it.
When I speak to my French neighbours about childcare in the UK they really can’t believe how under-resourced and expensive it is. Likewise healthcare (without the expensive bit). Those are the two areas of public life where they feel comfortably superior to the UK. There are plenty of others where they feel the opposite.
But outside Scandinavia they’re the exception not the rule. Most of Southern and Eastern Europe has the double whammy of increased female workforce participation but stubbornly old fashioned childcare policies that assume mother or nonna will take care of things.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
The issue with that is if a King William ceased to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England, or at least protector of it as he is of the Church of Scotland or the King of Denmark is for the Lutheran Church of Denmark, it opens the way for the Roman Catholic church to be the national church again. Indeed in time if the RC church agreed to have women priests it could well see the Church of England merge back into the Roman Catholic church as if the monarch is not to be its Supreme Governor there is nothing to stop the Pope heading it again (with some of the more evangelical elements perhaps becoming Baptist or Pentecostal)
How on earth would following the Danes or Scots (or the Americans, Welsh or even the French) in not having our Head of State have a role in governing a church "open the way" for Catholicism (or Paganism) to become England's national church?
Because there are three fundamental obstacles: 1. The people of England. Do they want any institution to be a national church? 2. The Vatican. Which really, really, really has enough on its plate already without stepping into the political quagmire of becoming anyone's national church. 3. English Catholics. Who, in my experience, are roughly as diverse as the rest of England on almost everything. And that includes the fact that the overwhelming majority really, really, really, are more than delighted that the C of E is lumbered with the problems (and constantly leaking roofs) of being the national church.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
William, like many in the UK, goes a few times a year for key events but isn't particularly devout.
The coronation is a key event.
He'll probably just tone it down a bit and get less actively involved, delegating more decisions to archbishops and so forth.
I don't expect him to open the pandora's box of reappraising the last 500 years of constitutional history.
$1.25 billion was wiped off Fujitsu's market value overnight after the head of its European arm said it had a moral duty to compensate Post Office victims.
Latest on @BloombergUK : Fujitsu Takes $1 Billion Knock as Post Office Scandal Escalates
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
I agree. The mummery is the only valuable bit. It's what gets the world watching. Weird rituals, Zadok the Priest, long processions, fancy robes. Ditch that and you might as well have a republic.
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
I am most confused as to why the wider public are not blaming Starmer and his liberal establishment for the Post Office scandal? Surely it is now time for change, time for Rishi.
Ask @MexicanPete, he has been given us a running commentary on the matter for the past couple of months.
I bet you were triggered yesterday by the Cash amendment.
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 28% (-) Lab 44% (+2) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 18% (-1) Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024 Sample: 2,136 GB adults (Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
Yes, and the two polls produce almost identical results - the apparent movement is correcting slightly different results last time. There seems little reason not to think that this is the settled position.
It's worth comparing to 2019 to appreciate the magnitude:
Con 43.6% (so now minus 16 points) Lab 32.1% (so now plus 12) LD 7.4% (so now plus 3)
14% swing Con to Lab, 9.5% Con to LD, 4.5% LD to Lab.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
I agree that the ceremony matters for the royals, but we don't have a royal family because we have a "logical justification" for it, let alone the logic being the religious angle. If you wanted to take the logical angle it would be a combination of tourist money, "soft power" and it being better not to upset the constitutional applecart. But fundamentally we have a royal family because a lot of people are comfortable with that tradition and ceremony, which remains true whether there's an official link with the CoE or not.
@amandaakass No 10 source tells me "engagement is continuing" with MPs today - not quite the invite for bacon sandwiches and pastries with the PM we saw ahead of the vote before Christmas
The Rwanda policy was introduced by Boris Johnson solely to win positive headlines in the client Tory press and to create a dividing line with Labour. So, almost inevitably, what it is actually doing is tearing the Tories apart. It would take a heart of stone ...
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
I agree. The mummery is the only valuable bit. It's what gets the world watching. Weird rituals, Zadok the Priest, long processions, fancy robes. Ditch that and you might as well have a republic.
To be fair, we heard the same thing about Charles' coronation and he made a few tweaks - ditched the coronets for the Lords, shortened a tad, and made it a bit more diverse - but otherwise it was the same.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
The issue with that is if a King William ceased to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England, or at least protector of it as he is of the Church of Scotland or the King of Denmark is for the Lutheran Church of Denmark, it opens the way for the Roman Catholic church to be the national church again. Indeed in time if the RC church agreed to have women priests it could well see the Church of England merge back into the Roman Catholic church as if the monarch is not to be its Supreme Governor there is nothing to stop the Pope heading it again (with some of the more evangelical elements perhaps becoming Baptist or Pentecostal)
How on earth would following the Danes or Scots (or the Americans, Welsh or even the French) in not having our Head of State have a role in governing a church "open the way" for Catholicism (or Paganism) to become England's national church?
Because there are three fundamental obstacles: 1. The people of England. Do they want any institution to be a national church? 2. The Vatican. Which really, really, really has enough on its plate already without stepping into the political quagmire of becoming anyone's national church. 3. English Catholics. Who, in my experience, are roughly as diverse as the rest of England on almost everything. And that includes the fact that the overwhelming majority really, really, really, are more than delighted that the C of E is lumbered with the problems (and constantly leaking roofs) of being the national church.
HYUFD does feel a nation needs a national church to keep the RCs out. He was arguing some time back with me about Scotland and saying how awful it was that the Church of Scotland had been disestablished (pretty much as part of the re-merger with much of the Free and Secession Kirks) because it had let the RCs take over and dominate in Scotland. Which was news to me, even if one applies it solely to formal religion.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
The issue with that is if a King William ceased to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England, or at least protector of it as he is of the Church of Scotland or the King of Denmark is for the Lutheran Church of Denmark, it opens the way for the Roman Catholic church to be the national church again. Indeed in time if the RC church agreed to have women priests it could well see the Church of England merge back into the Roman Catholic church as if the monarch is not to be its Supreme Governor there is nothing to stop the Pope heading it again (with some of the more evangelical elements perhaps becoming Baptist or Pentecostal)
We don't need a national church.
Indeed. The fact that the drop-off in religious conviction over the past few decades has been accompanied by a massive mental health epidemic - especially amongst young people - is probably just a coincidence.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
I agree that the ceremony matters for the royals, but we don't have a royal family because we have a "logical justification" for it, let alone the logic being the religious angle. If you wanted to take the logical angle it would be a combination of tourist money, "soft power" and it being better not to upset the constitutional applecart. But fundamentally we have a royal family because a lot of people are comfortable with that tradition and ceremony, which remains true whether there's an official link with the CoE or not.
Royalists vs Repiblicans neck and neck in Scotland at present, though as usual the southerners are more conservative as well as Conservative.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
I agree. The mummery is the only valuable bit. It's what gets the world watching. Weird rituals, Zadok the Priest, long processions, fancy robes. Ditch that and you might as well have a republic.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
The issue with that is if a King William ceased to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England, or at least protector of it as he is of the Church of Scotland or the King of Denmark is for the Lutheran Church of Denmark, it opens the way for the Roman Catholic church to be the national church again. Indeed in time if the RC church agreed to have women priests it could well see the Church of England merge back into the Roman Catholic church as if the monarch is not to be its Supreme Governor there is nothing to stop the Pope heading it again (with some of the more evangelical elements perhaps becoming Baptist or Pentecostal)
We don't need a national church.
Indeed. The fact that the drop-off in religious conviction over the past few decades has been accompanied by a massive mental health epidemic - especially amongst young people - is probably just a coincidence.
So if we all go to church, bend the knee before god, we'll all be happier? Excellent.
Possibly; though I'd argue for young children colourful 'interactive' books like "Elmer" or the "That's not my..." are the thing to have. Kindles are probably most useful when kids get onto 'proper' YA books?
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
I agree that the ceremony matters for the royals, but we don't have a royal family because we have a "logical justification" for it, let alone the logic being the religious angle. If you wanted to take the logical angle it would be a combination of tourist money, "soft power" and it being better not to upset the constitutional applecart. But fundamentally we have a royal family because a lot of people are comfortable with that tradition and ceremony, which remains true whether there's an official link with the CoE or not.
Royalists vs Repiblicans neck and neck in Scotland at present, though as usual the southerners are more conservative as well as Conservative.
Monarchy 11% ahead in Scotland over a Republic with Yougov
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
The issue with that is if a King William ceased to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England, or at least protector of it as he is of the Church of Scotland or the King of Denmark is for the Lutheran Church of Denmark, it opens the way for the Roman Catholic church to be the national church again. Indeed in time if the RC church agreed to have women priests it could well see the Church of England merge back into the Roman Catholic church as if the monarch is not to be its Supreme Governor there is nothing to stop the Pope heading it again (with some of the more evangelical elements perhaps becoming Baptist or Pentecostal)
We don't need a national church.
Indeed. The fact that the drop-off in religious conviction over the past few decades has been accompanied by a massive mental health epidemic - especially amongst young people - is probably just a coincidence.
So if we all go to church, bend the knee before god, we'll all be happier? Excellent.
Don't knock it 'til you've tried it.
There's good evidence that religious practice and good mental health are positively correlated, and this is a situation where it actually doesn't much matter whether it's correlation or causation.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
I agree. The mummery is the only valuable bit. It's what gets the world watching. Weird rituals, Zadok the Priest, long processions, fancy robes. Ditch that and you might as well have a republic.
It's perfectly possible to modernise the coronation and drop a lot of the 1688-9 Revolution legacy while also keeping the continuity.
The crown, sceptre and orb are the jewelled bits that matter in terms of spectacle. Zadok is a great tune so keep it. The anointing is of less importance. The oath ought to be central. The homage has almost been done away with so can slip if that's how he feels.
But removing the monarch as head of the CofE would be a good move, not least because it would enable the anti-catholic provisions on who can succeed to the throne to be repealed.
William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king
Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.
Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.
The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”
William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
I agree that the ceremony matters for the royals, but we don't have a royal family because we have a "logical justification" for it, let alone the logic being the religious angle. If you wanted to take the logical angle it would be a combination of tourist money, "soft power" and it being better not to upset the constitutional applecart. But fundamentally we have a royal family because a lot of people are comfortable with that tradition and ceremony, which remains true whether there's an official link with the CoE or not.
Royalists vs Repiblicans neck and neck in Scotland at present, though as usual the southerners are more conservative as well as Conservative.
Monarchy 11% ahead in Scotland over a Republic with Yougov
Comments
With her strange personal life on top it's clear she's quite unhinged.
Maybe in winter people spend less time outside in the countryside and worry less about warming. I’ll have a look at their numbers to see if I can glean an annual cycle.
Trebles all 'round!
The Con to Reform swing isn't just bad in itself, it's really bad timing.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/16/trump-iowa-caucus-analysis-00135949
Caveat is that only about 50k voted, but Trump seems to have consolidated the rural base, and made little or no ground where he needs to.
Another straw in the wind from Florida.
Tom Keen flips HD 35 from red to blue in critical Special Election
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653319-tom-keen-flips-hd-35-from-red-to-blue-in-critical-special-election/
My gut (FWIW) says that if the economy stays OK, Biden wins.
A lot depends on what happens, or doesn't, in Israel/Iran/Syria/Yemen etc over the next few months.
LDs and Labour have been showered in excrement by the client media over the last fortnight and the Government largely untarnished. They should have done better, or it could all just be MoE.
But it's difficult to judge, as I have no idea what will happen to the Ashfield Independent vote.
If Labour get a good candidate, they may take it.
Would Anderson defect? No idea. I'm not sure what he has left to lose.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/01/16/congress/senate-gop-to-johnson-take-a-deal-00135982
After the thread ended I then realised the appropriate response was to say I hope if Trump does get elected you are right and I am wrong re the outcome of his 2nd term. Let's hope we never find out.
Otoh, my social media feeds are full of people showing off their heat pumps working in sub-zero temperatures. Along with solar panels, that is where the real security for individual households will be found.
Biden doesn’t have much yet rather than the threat to democracy, which should be a slam dunk but isn’t, so they need a new tack. What have they done right and what will they do to make things better. He cant afford to make the next election simply a referendum on Trump, because Trump thrives when everything is made all about him.
I still remain of the view that if Trump is the nominee, Biden will win. But the Democrats need to move on from the “should he/shouldn’t he run” debate now and get all in on the campaign.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67999465
Iran is pissing off a lot of different people recently.
In a choice between democracy and security, people invariably choose security - and then lose it anyway, along with much else.
Exclusive: Documents released after Freedom of Information Act requests show repeated requests for plans
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/17/uk-water-industrys-urgent-plan-to-tackle-sewage-pollution-delayed-by-four-months
I had a nice chat with the husband of Georgia Democrat state rep yesterday. Firmly of the view that Trump would lose the general but Haley would win (even though she’s a “hard right firebrand”).
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead widens to sixteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 28% (-)
Lab 44% (+2)
Lib Dem 10% (-2)
Other 18% (-1)
Fieldwork: 12th - 15th January 2024
Sample: 2,136 GB adults
(Changes from 22nd-29th December 2023)
https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1746975692602933712?s=20
All noise at the moment.
Everyone remembers the shock of 2016 after Hilary led comfortably in polls, but I wonder if it's having the same effect on the US political psyche as 1992 still has here.
So Anderson may have half an eye on the fact that he could get a second bite of the cherry even if he loses his seat.
Lets say he does. That is not the bill passed. It then goes to the Lords. Who will tear it apart. Then we get tennis between the chambers. The government cannot force the Lords to pass a bill which breaches both international law and is contrary to the Tory manifesto.
But out there in normal land? People probably think tonight's vote passes the law. They will then expect flights. Not months and months and months of further debate and battles. Followed - even if it does eventually become law - with "not days or weeks" of delays.
How have they managed to dig themselves into this hole?
After all only about half of potential voters in the US actually do so.
But all that notwithstanding it's always a marvel travelling at rush hour through London's underground system. Admittedly not the most comfortable or relaxing experience but if you just go with the flow you realise what an incredibly efficient industrial machine it is. Pushing millions of commuters through a production line complete with little tubular shuttles, rising conveyor belts and intricate wiring diagrams and getting them across a huge metropolis in a matter of minutes.
It is a wonder of the industrial age.
Most commuters know exactly where they're going at 7.30 in the morning (unlike me today - I usually take the DLR which is more like a trip on a theme park monorail) and they just enter this state of suspended - but rapid walking - animation that's a sort of meditation in the crowd, shutting down their conscious brain for 20 minutes or half an hour and just allowing themselves to be shuttled through the machine. No wonder people from outside think Londoners are unfriendly because they don't talk on public transport. They're not unfriendly, they're just in transport mode.
The polling error wasn't large but it was there and it fell in all the right places for Trump.
They were probably slightly more accurate than 2020, in fact, where Biden prevailed by five percentage points having led by 7-8.
No 10 source tells me "engagement is continuing" with MPs today - not quite the invite for bacon sandwiches and pastries with the PM we saw ahead of the vote before Christmas
Here's the final projection: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
And have a look here:
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_wOkNqe4.pdf
First question:
Country headed in right direction: 29%
Country on wrong track: 61%
Figures for Independents terrible here.
Inflation and immigration are the most important issues (though for Independents Health Care just beats immigration). I think Biden needs to convince enough people he has got those issues under control, then he's favorite. On immigration he's currently way behind Trump
Are you confident or uneasy about Joe Biden’s ability to deal wisely with immigration?
Confident 27%
Uneasy 57%
Among Independents:
Confident 16%
Uneasy 64%
Are you confident or uneasy about Trump's ability to deal wisely with immigration?
Confident 46%
Uneasy 43%
Among Independents:
Confident 42%
Uneasy 42%
past couple of months.
I told a friend *years* ago that Charles loves the Champions League theme and wants it played at his coronation. Hopefully collect the interest on that joke in about eight months.
https://x.com/mitchellst/status/1569379657518137344?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://twitter.com/CatHobbs/status/1747540866963493300
The great thing about that was that the platform is much longer than the train, it sits for ages at Bank, and there is no driver. So I used to sit at the front and, when someone who was obviously a tourist appeared at the end of the platform, I'd gesture wildly to them as if they'd better run or they'd miss it. They'd do so, then we'd all be sat there for five or ten minutes.
I'm probably going to hell for that, but it amused me at the time and I stand by it.
https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1747342081889038766
Quickest route to demographic rearmament of course is to open the doors to immigration, as the history of the US shows. But with his main opponent being Marine Le Pen Macron’s unlikely to make that call.
It's worth comparing to 2019 to appreciate the magnitude:
Con 43.6% (so now minus 16 points)
Lab 32.1% (so now plus 12)
LD 7.4% (so now plus 3)
14% swing Con to Lab, 9.5% Con to LD, 4.5% LD to Lab.
This from June last year has 'Unemployment' as an 'very big problem' for 24% of people, which is quite a few, but is easily last among the 16 issues they asked about
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/06/21/inflation-health-costs-partisan-cooperation-among-the-nations-top-problems/
And are unemployment figures really the best for 3 decades? The employment rate is a few points below its peak.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902
But outside Scandinavia they’re the exception not the rule. Most of Southern and Eastern Europe has the double whammy of increased female workforce participation but stubbornly old fashioned childcare policies that assume mother or nonna will take care of things.
Because there are three fundamental obstacles:
1. The people of England. Do they want any institution to be a national church?
2. The Vatican. Which really, really, really has enough on its plate already without stepping into the political quagmire of becoming anyone's national church.
3. English Catholics. Who, in my experience, are roughly as diverse as the rest of England on almost everything. And that includes the fact that the overwhelming majority really, really, really, are more than delighted that the C of E is lumbered with the problems (and constantly leaking roofs) of being the national church.
The coronation is a key event.
He'll probably just tone it down a bit and get less actively involved, delegating more decisions to archbishops and so forth.
I don't expect him to open the pandora's box of reappraising the last 500 years of constitutional history.
$1.25 billion was wiped off Fujitsu's market value overnight after the head of its European arm said it had a moral duty to compensate Post Office victims.
Latest on
@BloombergUK
:
Fujitsu Takes $1 Billion Knock as Post Office Scandal Escalates
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67361138
Not worried about it.
NEW THREAD
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_RoyalFavourability_230831_W.pdf
There's good evidence that religious practice and good mental health are positively correlated, and this is a situation where it actually doesn't much matter whether it's correlation or causation.
The crown, sceptre and orb are the jewelled bits that matter in terms of spectacle. Zadok is a great tune so keep it. The anointing is of less importance. The oath ought to be central. The homage has almost been done away with so can slip if that's how he feels.
But removing the monarch as head of the CofE would be a good move, not least because it would enable the anti-catholic provisions on who can succeed to the throne to be repealed.
I saw this helpful hint in Viz the other day: "Using stale crap data doesn't make your arguments any better."