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LAB reaches new high in general election betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,011
edited January 22 in General
imageLAB reaches new high in general election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    First.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,501
    edited January 16
    Second. NOM remains value.
  • Options
    There's been no significant movement in the polls, but the clock is running down.

    It's actually getting to the point where betting big odds on Labour is an attractive alternative to leaving your money on deposit.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,046
    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1747316809991118964

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,160
    edited January 16
    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,501
    edited January 16
    edit
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    We will soon see a 30 point Labour lead IMHO.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,527

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned.

    The post-election Tory leadership contest is shaping up to be properly MAGA. The backbenchers can spend the next few months laying the ground for their "we weren't right wing enough" post-mortem.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,619
    algarkirk said:

    Lee Anderson resigns

    From Parliament? Frinton Tiddlywinks Club? Dietary Aid to the Deserving Poor Society??
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,174
    So, how much are Fujitsu going to chuck in the pot? £500m is a nice round sum.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,619
    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Trading Standards in your local authority?

    Or are you a member of the Consumers Association by any chance?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,929
    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1747316809991118964

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned

    I doubt anyone will miss them. Both odious clowns. Cheerio you ugly chumps.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,931
    I'm glad I've been on the Labour majority bus from well before it was popular. My seat is nice and comfy. ;)

    As a matter of interest, what do we know of the various parties battlechests? How ready for an election are they, money-wise?
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1747316809991118964

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned

    Did anybody notice?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,619

    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1747316809991118964

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned

    I doubt anyone will miss them. Both odious clowns. Cheerio you ugly chumps.
    Awww ... only the depute convenorships of the Party. So you still have to keep them provided with 10 and 20p bits.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,667
    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Have they charged the correct standing charges and usage? Months don't really matter.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,527
    edited January 16

    We will soon see a 30 point Labour lead IMHO.

    Unless RefUK votes start getting redistributed or LD/Green collapse I can't see that happening to be honest. The minor parties have too much vote share currently. Roughly 25-28% is going to LD, G and Ref combined.

    Could we see a Tory sub-20% VI in a poll though? I'd say less likely than a sub-40% Labour VI (which I expect at some point - not including the Telegraph MRP) but not out of the question.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,501
    TimS said:

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned.

    The post-election Tory leadership contest is shaping up to be properly MAGA. The backbenchers can spend the next few months laying the ground for their "we weren't right wing enough" post-mortem.
    I have no idea on this one but others probably do: If there is a Tory wipeout, what sort of configuration in terms of One nation, other sane Tories, extremes etc would be left, if they are down to their last 100/150/200 MPs. The remaining rump will of course be critical as the group who get two names to the members.

  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,527
    edited January 16
    Although I'm not Baldrick, I have a cunning plan. All the opposition parties should vote in favour of the right-wing amendments tonight; combined with the Tory rebels that should be enough to get them through. Then, when the amended Bill comes up for Third Reading tomorrow, they should combine with the sensible Tories who find the amended Bill too much to stomach and vote the whole caboodle down. Job done.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,870
    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1747316809991118964

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned

    who?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,619

    DavidL said:

    So, how much are Fujitsu going to chuck in the pot? £500m is a nice round sum.

    It was going to be £500m but they have put it through horizon and it came down to £178m. So they did it again, just to double check and now the government owe Fujitsu £233m.
    And see the news today. PO wanting a new computer system.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,931
    "Jan 16 (Reuters) - Iran destroyed two bases of Baluchi militant group Jaish al Adl in Pakistan by launching missiles on Tuesday, Iranian state media reported."

    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1747310552274153617
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,527
    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned.

    The post-election Tory leadership contest is shaping up to be properly MAGA. The backbenchers can spend the next few months laying the ground for their "we weren't right wing enough" post-mortem.
    I have no idea on this one but others probably do: If there is a Tory wipeout, what sort of configuration in terms of One nation, other sane Tories, extremes etc would be left, if they are down to their last 100/150/200 MPs. The remaining rump will of course be critical as the group who get two names to the members.

    I looked at this a few months ago. It looked like you'd actually get a fairly representative mix remaining. Some rightwingers (Braverman, Truss, Patel to name a few), some one nation and wet types. But with the loss of the Boris-adjacent red wallers and the rump being more rural and Southern facing I think overall the party would go fiscally rightwards.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,160

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Have they charged the correct standing charges and usage? Months don't really matter.
    You don't understand. They've taken the credit balance at the start of December, after November's usage had been taken off, and then included November's usage again to this bill and deducted that from the credit balance in December.

    It's not about the rate they're charging. They've charged me twice.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,160
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Trading Standards in your local authority?

    Or are you a member of the Consumers Association by any chance?
    I can try. I don't know whether Trading Standards have jurisdiction in this.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,174
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Have they charged the correct standing charges and usage? Months don't really matter.
    You don't understand. They've taken the credit balance at the start of December, after November's usage had been taken off, and then included November's usage again to this bill and deducted that from the credit balance in December.

    It's not about the rate they're charging. They've charged me twice.
    And worth every penny, if I may say so.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,680
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Have they charged the correct standing charges and usage? Months don't really matter.
    You don't understand. They've taken the credit balance at the start of December, after November's usage had been taken off, and then included November's usage again to this bill and deducted that from the credit balance in December.

    It's not about the rate they're charging. They've charged me twice.
    Quick check: is it "British Gas" or a privatised company?
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Trading Standards in your local authority?

    Or are you a member of the Consumers Association by any chance?
    I can try. I don't know whether Trading Standards have jurisdiction in this.
    Small Claims Court?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,386
    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned.

    The post-election Tory leadership contest is shaping up to be properly MAGA. The backbenchers can spend the next few months laying the ground for their "we weren't right wing enough" post-mortem.
    I have no idea on this one but others probably do: If there is a Tory wipeout, what sort of configuration in terms of One nation, other sane Tories, extremes etc would be left, if they are down to their last 100/150/200 MPs. The remaining rump will of course be critical as the group who get two names to the members.

    From memory, there's not much variation, though that depends a bit on the reselections on new boundaries. (See South Hampshire, where Flick Drummond got lumbered with the doomed tailgunner gig of defending Winchester.)

    If the Conservative Party ends up about 1/3 nutter MP, they can get someone on the final shortlist. That seems like a relatively easy bar, sadly.

    Then, unless the blow up during the member vote (always possible), they win with the members.
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    TimS said:

    We will soon see a 30 point Labour lead IMHO.

    Unless RefUK votes start getting redistributed or LD/Green collapse I can't see that happening to be honest. The minor parties have too much vote share currently. Roughly 25-28% is going to LD, G and Ref combined.

    Could we see a Tory sub-20% VI in a poll though? I'd say less likely than a sub-40% Labour VI (which I expect at some point - not including the Telegraph MRP) but not out of the question.
    Given that 5% of polls are outliers I should say the chances of 19% are good. We have already had one 22% this year.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,667
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Have they charged the correct standing charges and usage? Months don't really matter.
    You don't understand. They've taken the credit balance at the start of December, after November's usage had been taken off, and then included November's usage again to this bill and deducted that from the credit balance in December.

    It's not about the rate they're charging. They've charged me twice.
    One estimated reading, one actual reading?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,232
    edited January 16
    68 votes for Cash Amendment
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Have they charged the correct standing charges and usage? Months don't really matter.
    You don't understand. They've taken the credit balance at the start of December, after November's usage had been taken off, and then included November's usage again to this bill and deducted that from the credit balance in December.

    It's not about the rate they're charging. They've charged me twice.
    One estimated reading, one actual reading?
    This is British Gas. Everything is estimated.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,439
    edited January 16
    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    WEAK WEAK WEAK
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.

    That's why I think Keir will get a decade. The Tories seem to have spent a decade watching Labour lose and have decided they want at it.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,667

    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.

    At the membership level its already happened. Bound to follow through to the Commons over the next few years, especially once they start soul searching after a damn good thrashing.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,386
    So what do the rebels do now?
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    The fraud squad.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,619

    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.

    That's why I think Keir will get a decade. The Tories seem to have spent a decade watching Labour lose and have decided they want at it.
    Doubt it. The Tories are sabotaging the state too thoroughly, and are already blaming SKS. Like the Germans on the retreat to the Siegfriedstellung aka Hindenburg Line. Was shit for the folk living in the area, mind. Destruction of town halls, destruction of transport infrastructure, damage of water supply and drainage, removal of all cash and assets ...
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,292
    edited January 16
    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned.

    The post-election Tory leadership contest is shaping up to be properly MAGA. The backbenchers can spend the next few months laying the ground for their "we weren't right wing enough" post-mortem.
    I have no idea on this one but others probably do: If there is a Tory wipeout, what sort of configuration in terms of One nation, other sane Tories, extremes etc would be left, if they are down to their last 100/150/200 MPs. The remaining rump will of course be critical as the group who get two names to the members.

    Not sure, but I think Sir Christopher Chope would be one of the cockroaches to survive, which is not a good sign.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,386

    So what do the rebels do now?

    Regroup on Alderaan?
    I suppose threatening to send small boat people there would act as a deterrent.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    Carnyx said:

    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.

    That's why I think Keir will get a decade. The Tories seem to have spent a decade watching Labour lose and have decided they want at it.
    Doubt it. The Tories are sabotaging the state too thoroughly, and are already blaming SKS. Like the Germans on the retreat to the Siegfriedstellung aka Hindenburg Line. Was shit for the folk living in the area, mind. Destruction of town halls, destruction of transport infrastructure, damage of water supply and drainage, removal of all cash and assets ...
    Would that not be classed as Treason? HMG v the Conservative Party?
  • Options
    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 123

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned.

    The post-election Tory leadership contest is shaping up to be properly MAGA. The backbenchers can spend the next few months laying the ground for their "we weren't right wing enough" post-mortem.
    I have no idea on this one but others probably do: If there is a Tory wipeout, what sort of configuration in terms of One nation, other sane Tories, extremes etc would be left, if they are down to their last 100/150/200 MPs. The remaining rump will of course be critical as the group who get two names to the members.

    Not sure, but pretty sure Sir Christopher Chope would be one of the cockroaches to survive, which is not a good sign.
    Surely it's time Sir C stood down?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,702

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    2m
    As for those on govt payroll minded to vote for rebel amendments, this from a govt figure: “The Chief Whip has made clear that any member of the payroll that doesn’t support the Government this evening will have made their position untenable”

    I think Starmer has all but made Tory MPs position untenable already Party whips don't have a lot of leverage.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,174
    Looks like it's time for the GE!
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,292
    edited January 16

    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.

    At the membership level its already happened. Bound to follow through to the Commons over the next few years, especially once they start soul searching after a damn good thrashing.
    This outsider is of the view that the Membership is substantially responsible for the current lamentable situation. Shouldn't the MPs do something about this?

    Perhaps membership should be limited to those with an IQ above 80.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,160

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    Have they charged the correct standing charges and usage? Months don't really matter.
    You don't understand. They've taken the credit balance at the start of December, after November's usage had been taken off, and then included November's usage again to this bill and deducted that from the credit balance in December.

    It's not about the rate they're charging. They've charged me twice.
    One estimated reading, one actual reading?
    Both are actual readings.

    Although they played that game on the account at my father's place, issuing estimated readings (totally wrong, to the tune of £600 in their favour) even when they had twice had the correct readings.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,106
    edited January 16
    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    I remember the days when you could burst through the shop door in New Street Ledbury and shout at people. The same went for the MEB.

    You could shout at your MP. Oh wait its Amanda Milling. I doubt she'd understand.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,160

    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    I remember the days when you could burst through the shop door in New Street Ledbury and shout at people. The same went for the MEB.
    It's tempting to drive to Windsor and do something similar.

    But I'm in such a state of rage right now somebody might get seriously hurt, and I wouldn't really want that. They're stupid, but not I think malicious.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,169

    Looks like it's time for the GE!

    Jason Groves
    @JasonGroves1
    ·
    11m
    60 Tory rebels on Rwanda include 10 former Cabinet ministers
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    Looks like it's time for the GE!

    Jason Groves
    @JasonGroves1
    ·
    11m
    60 Tory rebels on Rwanda include 10 former Cabinet ministers
    It’s what they do on third reading that matters.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    JohnO said:

    Looks like it's time for the GE!

    Jason Groves
    @JasonGroves1
    ·
    11m
    60 Tory rebels on Rwanda include 10 former Cabinet ministers
    It’s what they do on third reading that matters.
    Sorry, John, but are you talking about Parliament or Foxy's gas meter?
    The real question is, how does a dog like you become so good at typing? Or betting
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,242
    edited January 16

    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1747316809991118964

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned

    Just rejoice at that news.
    We can rejoice when these nutty extremist Tories aren’t trying to make our entire national government sing to their tune, but (those few of them that will be left) are sat at the back of the opposition benches and either derided or ignored. Not long to wait, now.

    Meanwhile, from today’s BIS SC hearing on the Post Office scandal, welcome news that Fujitsu accepts that it will have to cough up some £££, and shocking news that there is a subpostmaster who was imprisoned who has only just made contact with the campaign, following the TV drama.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,680

    So what do the rebels do now?

    Regroup on Alderaan?
    Um, you know what happens, yes?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,619

    JohnO said:

    Looks like it's time for the GE!

    Jason Groves
    @JasonGroves1
    ·
    11m
    60 Tory rebels on Rwanda include 10 former Cabinet ministers
    It’s what they do on third reading that matters.
    Sorry, John, but are you talking about Parliament or Foxy's gas meter?
    The real question is, how does a dog like you become so good at typing? Or betting
    What a crass question. Border Collie, see.
  • Options

    JohnO said:

    Looks like it's time for the GE!

    Jason Groves
    @JasonGroves1
    ·
    11m
    60 Tory rebels on Rwanda include 10 former Cabinet ministers
    It’s what they do on third reading that matters.
    Sorry, John, but are you talking about Parliament or Foxy's gas meter?
    The real question is, how does a dog like you become so good at typing? Or betting
    :smile:

    Border Collies are smart.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,232
    58 votes for Jenrick Amendment
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,619

    Carnyx said:

    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.

    That's why I think Keir will get a decade. The Tories seem to have spent a decade watching Labour lose and have decided they want at it.
    Doubt it. The Tories are sabotaging the state too thoroughly, and are already blaming SKS. Like the Germans on the retreat to the Siegfriedstellung aka Hindenburg Line. Was shit for the folk living in the area, mind. Destruction of town halls, destruction of transport infrastructure, damage of water supply and drainage, removal of all cash and assets ...
    Would that not be classed as Treason? HMG v the Conservative Party?
    Doesn't seem to be bothering them.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,667
    viewcode said:

    So what do the rebels do now?

    Regroup on Alderaan?
    Um, you know what happens, yes?
    Don't discourage them!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    Sigh. None of this helps.

    The Scorpion and the Frog. The Party just can't help itself.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    JohnO said:

    Looks like it's time for the GE!

    Jason Groves
    @JasonGroves1
    ·
    11m
    60 Tory rebels on Rwanda include 10 former Cabinet ministers
    It’s what they do on third reading that matters.
    Sorry, John, but are you talking about Parliament or Foxy's gas meter?
    The real question is, how does a dog like you become so good at typing? Or betting
    :smile:

    Border Collies are smart.
    Almost as smart as horses. Especially those with batteries.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,106
    Johnson has been scratching his arse today. Ants in his pants or time for a tilt at the top again. First things first, a seat in Parliament is required.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,106

    Sigh. None of this helps.

    The Scorpion and the Frog. The Party just can't help itself.

    Don't bring the French into this or there'll be mutiny!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,242

    Johnson has been scratching his arse today. Ants in his pants or time for a tilt at the top again. First things first, a seat in Parliament is required.

    Even if it were possible, that would only be short term damage limitation, with the risk that it has the opposite effect in the LibDem target seats. As a strategic move to reposition and reconfigure the party for the longer-term, it would be an absolute blind alley (just as it proved, the last time).
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,242

    Sigh. None of this helps.

    The Scorpion and the Frog. The Party just can't help itself.

    This is a new version of the story, where a scorpion starts to cross the river and another smaller scorpion jumps on its back….
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302

    Sigh. None of this helps.

    The Scorpion and the Frog. The Party just can't help itself.

    Don't bring the French into this or there'll be mutiny!
    That's probably the one thing that could unite them.
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    Johnson has been scratching his arse today. Ants in his pants or time for a tilt at the top again. First things first, a seat in Parliament is required.

    I doubt there is a winnable seat
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417
    ydoethur said:

    So British Gas have now sent me a bill, and are charging me for two months into one when they had already noted the charge for the previous month on the previous bill.

    Claiming as a result that my account is £61 in credit instead of £190.

    What a bunch of lunatic scumbags.

    Which police force do I call about this, because I have had the fuck enough?

    tell Sid
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,667

    Johnson has been scratching his arse today. Ants in his pants or time for a tilt at the top again. First things first, a seat in Parliament is required.

    I doubt there is a winnable seat
    Uxbridge?
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966

    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.

    At the membership level its already happened. Bound to follow through to the Commons over the next few years, especially once they start soul searching after a damn good thrashing.
    This outsider is of the view that the Membership is substantially responsible for the current lamentable situation. Shouldn't the MPs do something about this?

    Perhaps membership should be limited to those with an IQ above 80.
    And aged below 80.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,106

    Johnson has been scratching his arse today. Ants in his pants or time for a tilt at the top again. First things first, a seat in Parliament is required.

    I doubt there is a winnable seat
    Clacton?
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,386

    I am now convinced that the Tory Party is going to lurch to the right following on from defeat. If it’s a particularly bad defeat, it is potentially going to go full GOPUK, and probably cannibalise (or be cannibalised by) Reform. It might not even survive as the Tories.

    We could be in line for a huge realignment.

    At the membership level its already happened. Bound to follow through to the Commons over the next few years, especially once they start soul searching after a damn good thrashing.
    This outsider is of the view that the Membership is substantially responsible for the current lamentable situation. Shouldn't the MPs do something about this?

    Perhaps membership should be limited to those with an IQ above 80.
    And aged below 80.
    Doesn't that restrict you to the membership of Cambridge University Conservatives?

    Are you sure that's entirely wise?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Not sure if already posted?

    New Hampshire Primary - ARG

    Haley 40
    Trump 40
    DeSantis 4
    Ramaswamy 4

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    It seems to me that the most obvious political solution for the Conservative party is to move to the 'far right', defining itself as being against the progressive consensus and coming up with some radical solutions to political problems. It seems to me that this is where they will probably go out of necessity and the likelihood of success depends on their ability to outperform others acting in this space like 'reform' and 'reclaim'. A lot would depend on finding the right leader, if they can find someone young and who looks like the future then they are in with a shot; but they still have to be accountable to their aging voter base who act as an obstacle as well as an asset.
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    darkage said:

    It seems to me that the most obvious political solution for the Conservative party is to move to the 'far right', defining itself as being against the progressive consensus and coming up with some radical solutions to political problems. It seems to me that this is where they will probably go out of necessity and the likelihood of success depends on their ability to outperform others acting in this space like 'reform' and 'reclaim'. A lot would depend on finding the right leader, if they can find someone young and who looks like the future then they are in with a shot; but they still have to be accountable to their aging voter base who act as an obstacle as well as an asset.

    Such a plan would be popular with much of the parliamentary party and membership. Though would likely see a stack of centre-left Tories quit the party for the LibDems. And voters? May shore up some vote leakage to RefUK. But be *catastrophic* for middle England. Another bonanza for the LDs.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    IanB2 said:

    Sigh. None of this helps.

    The Scorpion and the Frog. The Party just can't help itself.

    This is a new version of the story, where a scorpion starts to cross the river and another smaller scorpion jumps on its back….
    I love James Arbuthnot but even his comments don't help.

    It will be heard as a snide dig and an insult by CWF, the ERG and the Common Sense Group who will view, in turn, One Nation Conservative as europhile, Wet and quasi-socialist. And its not even true as Ken Clarke and Matthew Parris support the objectives of Rwanda.

    Only comments that help are unifying ones around country, monarchy, conservation, sound money, sound values and sound government.
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417
    edited January 16
    darkage said:

    It seems to me that the most obvious political solution for the Conservative party is to move to the 'far right', defining itself as being against the progressive consensus and coming up with some radical solutions to political problems. It seems to me that this is where they will probably go out of necessity and the likelihood of success depends on their ability to outperform others acting in this space like 'reform' and 'reclaim'. A lot would depend on finding the right leader, if they can find someone young and who looks like the future then they are in with a shot; but they still have to be accountable to their aging voter base who act as an obstacle as well as an asset.

    i would caveat that slightly in that what they shoudl do is be confident conservatives - Better to get flak and fight back on the grounds of being uncaring and right wing than be seen and accused (with a lot of merit) of being incompetent left wingers - If you go left wing (as the tories have ) with massive tax collections and borrowing you at least need to get public services working . Sunak has nothing going for him , the tories need to rid him to have more chance.
    Nobody is pro Sunak , never has been , he sort of won the leadership by default . Doing slightly better in Leicester due to his heritage is not much compensation for losing millions of tory voters who see him as a ineffectual yes man
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,501
    darkage said:

    It seems to me that the most obvious political solution for the Conservative party is to move to the 'far right', defining itself as being against the progressive consensus and coming up with some radical solutions to political problems. It seems to me that this is where they will probably go out of necessity and the likelihood of success depends on their ability to outperform others acting in this space like 'reform' and 'reclaim'. A lot would depend on finding the right leader, if they can find someone young and who looks like the future then they are in with a shot; but they still have to be accountable to their aging voter base who act as an obstacle as well as an asset.

    The evidence so far is that this isn't going to happen. Let's assume that 'far right' means something consistent with multi party democracy, capacity to lose etc, so we aren't talking about Trump or totalitarians or authoritarians; nor are we talking about the populism which suggests simple answers to complex problems.

    Within those constraints, what are the big ideas swirling around in radical conservative circles, costed (so not Trussism), thought out, deliverable, which are so different from the generality of the Overton Window. If they were around, would we not be talking about them?
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417
    The tories I fear will do even worse than in 1997 , at least Major was likeable , Sunak is seen as slimy
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,386
    edited January 16

    Sigh. None of this helps.

    The Scorpion and the Frog. The Party just can't help itself.

    And that's why the Conservatives are set to lose this year and are on track to lose in 2028.

    To many of them, saying is more important than doing. Winning the vote more important than enacting things in the real world. Office more important than power.

    It's a temptation to all political people and parties. Heck, the Lib Dems have been re-enacting being a real political party for a century or so. And Kinnock's 1985 conference speech remains all that needs to be said about that attitude.

    But it's nature's way of telling us a party needs a break. A term or three to realise that opposition may allow you to speak, write and dream to your heart's content. But it also means that you don't get to make a single word of it happen.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,106
    edited January 16
    ...
    darkage said:

    It seems to me that the most obvious political solution for the Conservative party is to move to the 'far right', defining itself as being against the progressive consensus and coming up with some radical solutions to political problems. It seems to me that this is where they will probably go out of necessity and the likelihood of success depends on their ability to outperform others acting in this space like 'reform' and 'reclaim'. A lot would depend on finding the right leader, if they can find someone young and who looks like the future then they are in with a shot; but they still have to be accountable to their aging voter base who act as an obstacle as well as an asset.

    The odious Honest Bob Jenrick fits the frame. He is as mad as Suella and is the right hue for the bigots and xenophobes they are trying to attract. They could even use the 1964 Smethwick General Election slogan to attract attention.

    Surely to goodness as a nation we are way better educated to fall for hanging, flogging and hanging and flogging foreigners.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,592

    Sigh. None of this helps.

    The Scorpion and the Frog. The Party just can't help itself.

    And that's why the Conservatives are set to lose this year and are on track to lose in 2028.

    To many of them, saying is more important than doing. Winning the vote more important than enacting things in the real world. Office more important than power.

    It's a temptation to all political people and parties. Heck, the Lib Dems have been re-enacting being a real political party for a century or so. And Kinnock's 1985 conference speech remains all that needs to be said about that attitude.

    But it's nature's way of telling us a party needs a break. A term or three to realise that opposition may allow you to speak, write and dream to your heart's content. But it also means that you don't get to make a single word of it happen.
    It's like a mirror image of BJO on the left.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,592
    On topic: 86.6% of PB 'Predictors' expect a Labour majority.

    Are we more, or less, informed? More, or less, prone to hopecasting?

    We'll never know.
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    maxhmaxh Posts: 825
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1747316809991118964

    Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke Smith have resigned

    Just rejoice at that news.
    We can rejoice when these nutty extremist Tories aren’t trying to make our entire national government sing to their tune, but (those few of them that will be left) are sat at the back of the opposition benches and either derided or ignored. Not long to wait, now.

    …snip…
    But the truly terrifying thing is that there is a small but not negligible chance that enough black swans happen (Starmer being discredited through some sort of dark web sting; UKR turning really ugly and Russia threatening us directly; US-Iran war etc) that this bunch of crooks sneak back in at the GE and we have five more years of this nonsense .

    The next GE is not a done deal, and let’s not count our chickens until they are well and truly roosting post election.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    algarkirk said:

    darkage said:

    It seems to me that the most obvious political solution for the Conservative party is to move to the 'far right', defining itself as being against the progressive consensus and coming up with some radical solutions to political problems. It seems to me that this is where they will probably go out of necessity and the likelihood of success depends on their ability to outperform others acting in this space like 'reform' and 'reclaim'. A lot would depend on finding the right leader, if they can find someone young and who looks like the future then they are in with a shot; but they still have to be accountable to their aging voter base who act as an obstacle as well as an asset.

    The evidence so far is that this isn't going to happen. Let's assume that 'far right' means something consistent with multi party democracy, capacity to lose etc, so we aren't talking about Trump or totalitarians or authoritarians; nor are we talking about the populism which suggests simple answers to complex problems.

    Within those constraints, what are the big ideas swirling around in radical conservative circles, costed (so not Trussism), thought out, deliverable, which are so different from the generality of the Overton Window. If they were around, would we not be talking about them?
    The era we live in is quite chaotic, the overton window can shift and 'unthinkable' ideas come in to play, similar to how the statism of the Johnson era contrasted with decades of neoliberalism. The Rwanda idea is fairly mainstream in Europe after Britain being an outlier for a while.

    If you think that things have to change then unthinkable solutions come in to play. It is like in Germany where politicians claiming 'we can do this' in 2015 (bringing in millions of refugees) are replaced in 2024 by politicians promising to deport millions of refugees.

    What I can say for sure is politicians are so entrenched in ideology that they have become out of touch with real life outside the demands of their activist base. IE Councils devoting resources to being a 'Borough of sanctuary' for asylum seekers, providing immigrants with housing etc, when they themselves have massive waiting lists and people at their wits end with no housing, teenage single mothers being housed 200 miles away from family etc. Things like this get corrected in the fullness of time.
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    maxhmaxh Posts: 825
    darkage said:

    algarkirk said:

    darkage said:

    It seems to me that the most obvious political solution for the Conservative party is to move to the 'far right', defining itself as being against the progressive consensus and coming up with some radical solutions to political problems. It seems to me that this is where they will probably go out of necessity and the likelihood of success depends on their ability to outperform others acting in this space like 'reform' and 'reclaim'. A lot would depend on finding the right leader, if they can find someone young and who looks like the future then they are in with a shot; but they still have to be accountable to their aging voter base who act as an obstacle as well as an asset.

    The evidence so far is that this isn't going to happen. Let's assume that 'far right' means something consistent with multi party democracy, capacity to lose etc, so we aren't talking about Trump or totalitarians or authoritarians; nor are we talking about the populism which suggests simple answers to complex problems.

    Within those constraints, what are the big ideas swirling around in radical conservative circles, costed (so not Trussism), thought out, deliverable, which are so different from the generality of the Overton Window. If they were around, would we not be talking about them?
    The era we live in is quite chaotic, the overton window can shift and 'unthinkable' ideas come in to play, similar to how the statism of the Johnson era contrasted with decades of neoliberalism. The Rwanda idea is fairly mainstream in Europe after Britain being an outlier for a while.

    If you think that things have to change then unthinkable solutions come in to play. It is like in Germany where politicians claiming 'we can do this' in 2015 (bringing in millions of refugees) are replaced in 2024 by politicians promising to deport millions of refugees.

    What I can say for sure is politicians are so entrenched in ideology that they have become out of touch with real life outside the demands of their activist base. IE Councils devoting resources to being a 'Borough of sanctuary' for asylum seekers, providing immigrants with housing etc, when they themselves have massive waiting lists and people at their wits end with no housing, teenage single mothers being housed 200 miles away from family etc. Things like this get corrected in the fullness of time.
    Whilst I get what you mean and largely agree that the bit in bold is councils stretching beyond what residents are likely to put up with for long, I’d suggest it actually shows a decent grasp of the real world, just that it’s the real world beyond these shores/Europe.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,175
    DavidL said:

    So, how much are Fujitsu going to chuck in the pot? £500m is a nice round sum.

    Start at a billion.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796

    ...

    darkage said:

    It seems to me that the most obvious political solution for the Conservative party is to move to the 'far right', defining itself as being against the progressive consensus and coming up with some radical solutions to political problems. It seems to me that this is where they will probably go out of necessity and the likelihood of success depends on their ability to outperform others acting in this space like 'reform' and 'reclaim'. A lot would depend on finding the right leader, if they can find someone young and who looks like the future then they are in with a shot; but they still have to be accountable to their aging voter base who act as an obstacle as well as an asset.

    The odious Honest Bob Jenrick fits the frame. He is as mad as Suella and is the right hue for the bigots and xenophobes they are trying to attract. They could even use the 1964 Smethwick General Election slogan to attract attention.

    Surely to goodness as a nation we are way better educated to fall for hanging, flogging and hanging and flogging foreigners.
    I used to think like this - but then had a bad shock in 2016 when I found out that a considerable part of the population are positive towards hanging and flogging and dislike foreigners (during my brief time as a failed remain campaigner). It is basically elite politicians that save us from our worst instincts.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,175
    What struck me about the evidence given by the Fujitsu and Post Office CEOs is - apart from its content - how appallingly badly briefed and prepared they were.

    Nick Read in particular is just useless: how can a CEO not know that a confidentiality clause in a settlement agreement = a Non-Disclosure Agreement?

    To call these people third-rate is to compliment them.
This discussion has been closed.