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Trump needs a clear victory in Iowa – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited January 14 in General
imageTrump needs a clear victory in Iowa – politicalbetting.com

Just 4 days to go before the first set piece of this year’s White House when the opening salvos and first actual voting are in Iowa with its caucuses. This time there will only be a Republican Party caucus while the Democrats contest will take place in about six weeks.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,192
    edited January 11
    Not going to be easy in all that snow.

    Oh, and first?
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684
    First
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,192
    ClippP said:

    First

    Hah!
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    Amazing that it is nearly 8 years since the last time Trump was gradually gaining popularity in the caucuses. Feels like a completely different life.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    DavidL said:

    Not going to be easy in all that snow.

    Oh, and first?

    There were a few stories of private planes chartered yesterday, so everyone was there on time for the various debates and town halls.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,192
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Not going to be easy in all that snow.

    Oh, and first?

    There were a few stories of private planes chartered yesterday, so everyone was there on time for the various debates and town halls.
    Flying in that might winnow the field somewhat. But we are probably not that lucky.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,192
    Who is this Mike Smirhson by the way. Not one of these Russian bots surely?
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684
    DavidL said:

    ClippP said:

    First

    Hah!
    Most definitely. Mine was the only reply for ages. I think the Tory Dirty Tricks Department has got in even here. Or is it the Russians? Or indeed is it the same thing?

    Probably.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302

    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    edited January 11
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,182
    "For many Republicans, the visceral satisfaction of liberal anguish at a Trump restoration more than makes up for his flaws."

    "If you’re saying it’s “Morning in America” when 77 percent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, you’re preaching to the wrong choir — and the wrong country.

    Trump’s opponents say this is the most important election of our lifetime. Isn’t it time, then, to take our heads out of the sand?"

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/11/opinion/columnists/donald-trump-election.html
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,192
    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    ClippP said:

    First

    Hah!
    Most definitely. Mine was the only reply for ages. I think the Tory Dirty Tricks Department has got in even here. Or is it the Russians? Or indeed is it the same thing?

    Probably.
    One of the maxims of the site. If you are explaining you are losing.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,182
    Iowa forecast - snow storm Friday.

    Then cold but not snow. -4 on Monday.

  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Who owns the Times, nowadays? ;)
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    IanB2 said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Who owns the Times, nowadays? ;)
    It’s not a serious newspaper.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    Scholz has today attacked the AfD's 'remigration' plan:

    https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1745361824881500244

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-lambasts-alleged-afd-remigration-plan/a-67950294

    "We will not allow someone to determine who is 'We' in our country according to whether a person has a history of immigration or not. We protect everyone — regardless of origin, skin color or how uncomfortable someone is for fanatics with assimilation fantasies."
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    How the Tory vote imploded. A deep dive into the collapse of British conservatism."

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1745344934951923713
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684
    DavidL said:

    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    ClippP said:

    First

    Hah!
    Most definitely. Mine was the only reply for ages. I think the Tory Dirty Tricks Department has got in even here. Or is it the Russians? Or indeed is it the same thing?

    Probably.
    One of the maxims of the site. If you are explaining you are losing.
    The Tory Dirty Tricks Department always wins......
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,207


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Because Rupe decided to smear them?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    How the Tory vote imploded. A deep dive into the collapse of British conservatism."

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1745344934951923713

    About 10-15% of 2019 Tories --mainly younger, anti-Brexit voters who didn’t like Boris, especially after Partygate, and are disillusioned with how the Tories are managing the economy—have defected to Labour.

    And, at the same time, about 15% of 2019 Tories –who are mainly older, pro-Brexit, and disillusioned with how the Tories are managing immigration and the small boats—are defecting instead to the Reform party.

    As the British Election Study team have shown, many of the defections —whether to Labour or Reform— are now being driven by a more diffuse sense out there in the country that the Tories are simply no longer a competent party. That on the most critical issues facing Britain today –the state of the economy, the cost-of-living crisis, the NHS, the small boats, the level of immigration—the Tories have done a ‘bad job’. Such is this ‘crisis of competence’ that Labour now lead the Conservatives even on issues such as Brexit and immigration.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Because they aren't Tories and at this stage frankly straw will do?
    He must have questions to answer too.

    image
  • Options
    I really worry that Trump not only gets the nomination, but wins as this would be a terrible result for the West and Europe

    The Bates v Royal Mail documentary has been the most important public service broadcast I can remember and the anger felt across the country is palpable which must have consequences for those responsible and jail time

    I do not think Starmer will have a problem, but certainly Ed Davey seems to be in real danger not least as a post mistress intends standing against him as an Independent

    Indeed I would suggest that as there are over 650 SPMs involved they should form an independent party and stand in every constituency at the next GE

    Alan Bates will be in our new constituency and if he stood we would vote for him in a heart beat ( quite appropriate for me at present)

    From the politicians to the lawyers, to the Royal Mail and others, we need a fundamental change and absolute accountability

    Keir Starmer will be PM later this year and he has a daunting task in front of him because if he fails, the fear is the right will rise, as they are across Europe, with untold consequences added to in spades if Trump also becomes POTUS

    I intend focusing on my health and family going forward, but truly hope someday things will get better for the vast majority of ordinary people including the SPMs so shamefully abused by the establishment
  • Options

    Iowa forecast - snow storm Friday.

    Then cold but not snow. -4 on Monday.

    I think that is Farenheit.

    BBC has Des Moines as -20C as the highest temperature during the day on the 15th.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    Scholz has today attacked the AfD's 'remigration' plan:

    https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1745361824881500244

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-lambasts-alleged-afd-remigration-plan/a-67950294

    "We will not allow someone to determine who is 'We' in our country according to whether a person has a history of immigration or not. We protect everyone — regardless of origin, skin color or how uncomfortable someone is for fanatics with assimilation fantasies."
    The AfD's success is extremely worrying and an example of how the "far right" moniker is used to fit too broad a range of parties.

    The AfD are actually far right. They are several orders of magnitude nastier than Marine Le Pen's RN (they are though more akin to her father's original FN) or Giorgia Meloni's Brother's of Italy, which is closer to our Tories than to the AfD.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    edited January 11

    Iowa forecast - snow storm Friday.

    Then cold but not snow. -4 on Monday.

    I think that is Farenheit.

    BBC has Des Moines as -20C as the highest temperature during the day on the 15th.
    Very likely. Up North here will probably make -4 C overnight next week
  • Options

    Farage is the ultimate protest politician. Yes, even better than Corbyn. Most people don't understand politics and how the world works. They think it should be simple and get frustrated when politicians in government fail to do these easy, simple things.

    The Nigel has a simple job. Lie. Tell people who know no better that yes, things are simple, these politicians are making idiots of you and you should vote against them.

    The notion that he should lead the Tory party is for the birds. Why would a protest politician want power? Power means reality and complexity and compromise...

    That suggests the Tory party holds any power, after the next election, the Tory party and power won't even be on talking terms anymore though.

    The Tories are unlikely to be back in Downing Street until Farage is in his seventies.

    Longer if they're stupid enough to let him into the Party.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Who is this Mike Smirhson by the way. Not one of these Russian bots surely?

    A typo in one of OGH's articles is a clear sign of authenticity.

    If there isn't one, that's when one needs to get suspicious.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,090


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yawn.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    I would just say the documentary actually demonstrated to viewers the drama SPMs suffered which induced understandable fury and demands for justice as it is true the most every SPM was greatly respected in the community they served
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    Iowa forecast - snow storm Friday.

    Then cold but not snow. -4 on Monday.

    I think that is Farenheit.

    BBC has Des Moines as -20C as the highest temperature during the day on the 15th.
    Britain would completely stop at those temperatures. And the press would be looking to blame the former DPP for his failure to prevent it.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326
    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    A wildcard is the new "Sabine Wagenknecht alliance" (typically of populists, the party name is exactly that), which has split off from the Left Party (ex-Communist): this will stand in the Euros on a left-wing economic platform but also sceptical about immigration and favouring "normal people" over "ecozealots" and "weird minorities" (what Leon would call an anti-woke stance): they are vehemently contemptuous of the Green Party. Polls have found that 19-27% of voters would "consider" voting for them, including many currently supporting the far-right AfD. The rump Left Party will become a more homogenous and mainstream green-left party (think Ed Miliband), though it's doubtful if they can compete successfully with the Greens.

    It's an unusual experiment in left populism, though most observers are sceptical that she has enough allies to form a full national party - the aging ex-Communists who are the backbone of the Left Party are generally sniffy about her, and the wilder fringes of anti-establishment types who like her style aren't easy to corral into a coherent movement.

    https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/sahra-wagenknecht-eigene-partei-linke-100.html
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Because they aren't Tories and at this stage frankly straw will do?
    He must have questions to answer too.

    image
    Very good. My inability to type as fast as I think struck again!
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,614
    edited January 11


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Reading the questioning of Bradshaw, I was struck by this.
    ... Julian Blake, counsel for the inquiry, highlights various documents showing that Bradshaw was asked for information but gave little or nothing in response. Bradshaw repeatedly says that he relied on the Post Office’s lawyers to decide what should be disclosed. “I’m a small cog in this,” he says.

    Asked if he ever had concerns when he realised the lawyers were refusing to hand over more documentation about wider problems with the Horizon system, Bradshaw says he cannot remember what was said.

    But he repeats the point about how he viewed this as an issue for the lawyers, even though he was the disclosure officer in the case...


    I'd no idea what the duties of a disclosure officer are, so did a quick search.
    This is from the CPS website.
    https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/disclosure-manual-chapter-3-roles-and-responsibilities
    ...An officer in charge of an investigation (OIC), an investigator and a disclosure officer perform different functions. The three roles may be performed by different people or by one person. Where the three roles are undertaken by more than one person, close consultation between them will be essential to ensure compliance with the statutory duties imposed by the CPIA and the Code of Practice.

    The Chief Officer of each police force is responsible for putting in place arrangements to ensure that in every investigation the identity of the officer in charge of an investigation and the disclosure officer is recorded. It is their duty to ensure that disclosure officers have sufficient skills and authority, commensurate with the complexity of the investigation, to discharge their functions effectively. The rulings from the Court of Appeal in DS and TS [2015] EWCA Crim 662 and Boardman [2015] EWCA Crim 175, reinforce the personal responsibility of the Chief Constable (or equivalent) as well as the Chief Crown Prosecutor, for ensuring that amongst other things, officers appointed to act as disclosure officers are trained and competent to fulfil this role and are appropriately supervised by the investigative authority...

    While this was of course a private prosecution, Bradshaw was a trained investigator who claims to have followed professional standards (see for example, his frequent references to PACE interviews).
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,499
    FPT: Josh Rogin notes that the ChiComs are exploiting anti-Semitism in the West:
    'Since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, the quantity and virulence of antisemitic content on China’s tightly controlled internet — especially on its social media — have skyrocketed. This unprecedented surge in antisemitism online in China could be possible only with the blessing of the Chinese government, which appears to be using anti-Jewish hate as a tool of its anti-U.S. and anti-Western diplomacy.'
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/08/china-antisemitism-online-tool-west-gaza/

    They will do almost anything to divide us. Those here who get excited about every story including Jews are helping them.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    edited January 11
    Nigelb said:

    Reading the questioning of Bradshaw, I was struck by this.
    ... Julian Blake, counsel for the inquiry, highlights various documents showing that Bradshaw was asked for information but gave little or nothing in response. Bradshaw repeatedly says that he relied on the Post Office’s lawyers to decide what should be disclosed. “I’m a small cog in this,” he says.

    Asked if he ever had concerns when he realised the lawyers were refusing to hand over more documentation about wider problems with the Horizon system, Bradshaw says he cannot remember what was said.

    But he repeats the point about how he viewed this as an issue for the lawyers, even though he was the disclosure officer in the case...


    I'd no idea what the duties of a disclosure officer are, so did a quick search.
    This is from the CPS website.
    https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/disclosure-manual-chapter-3-roles-and-responsibilities
    ...An officer in charge of an investigation (OIC), an investigator and a disclosure officer perform different functions. The three roles may be performed by different people or by one person. Where the three roles are undertaken by more than one person, close consultation between them will be essential to ensure compliance with the statutory duties imposed by the CPIA and the Code of Practice.

    The Chief Officer of each police force is responsible for putting in place arrangements to ensure that in every investigation the identity of the officer in charge of an investigation and the disclosure officer is recorded. It is their duty to ensure that disclosure officers have sufficient skills and authority, commensurate with the complexity of the investigation, to discharge their functions effectively. The rulings from the Court of Appeal in DS and TS [2015] EWCA Crim 662 and Boardman [2015] EWCA Crim 175, reinforce the personal responsibility of the Chief Constable (or equivalent) as well as the Chief Crown Prosecutor, for ensuring that amongst other things, officers appointed to act as disclosure officers are trained and competent to fulfil this role and are appropriately supervised by the investigative authority...

    While this was of course a private prosecution, Bradshaw was a trained investigator who claims to have followed professional standards (see for example, his frequent references to PACE interviews).

    On the duties of a disclosure officer, and the legal requirements for disclosure.

    https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/disclosure-manual-chapter-2-general-duties-disclosure-outside-cpia-1996
    ..The investigator or disclosure officer must inform the prosecutor as early as possible whether any material weakens the case against the accused. An evidential report to a prosecutor for a charging decision must contain the key evidence upon which the prosecution will rely, together with any unused material which satisfies the disclosure test.

    A revised Code for Crown Prosecutors was published on 26 October 2018. Disclosure considerations have now been incorporated into the evidential stage of the Full Code Test.

    The Code clarifies the timing of a charging decision either after all reasonable lines of enquiry have been pursued or prior to the investigation being completed, if the prosecutor is satisfied that any further evidence/material is unlikely to affect the application of the Full Code Test. The Code also clarifies that a prosecutor must have regard to any failure to pursue an advised reasonable line of inquiry or to comply with a request for information when deciding whether it is appropriate to defer a charging decision or whether the test can be met at all.

    The Code revises the Threshold Test and it must only be applied in limited circumstances after a rigorous examination of all the five conditions. Consideration must be given to material that points away from a suspect. Review must be carried out at an earlier date, as soon as the expected further material is received, or in any event before the formal service of the prosecution case...

    Section 3 of the CPIA envisages the possibility that some disclosure may already have been made before the statutory duty to make initial disclosure arises. This early disclosure is known as "common law disclosure", on which detailed guidance is given in R v DPP ex parte Lee [1999] 2 All ER 737. In essence, a prosecutor should consider whether justice and fairness require any immediate disclosure in the particular circumstances of the case.

    In all cases, irrespective of anticipated plea, the officer must comply with the common law disclosure obligations and certify that, to the best of the officer's knowledge and belief, no information has been withheld which would assist the accused in the preparation of the defence case
    ..
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @ScotNational

    BREAKING: A former SNP councillor has defected to Scottish Labour, according to reports.

    It is understood that Beth Baudo, who quit the SNP last year, has now joined Anas Sarwar's party in North Lanarkshire.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    Scholz has today attacked the AfD's 'remigration' plan:

    https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1745361824881500244

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-lambasts-alleged-afd-remigration-plan/a-67950294

    "We will not allow someone to determine who is 'We' in our country according to whether a person has a history of immigration or not. We protect everyone — regardless of origin, skin color or how uncomfortable someone is for fanatics with assimilation fantasies."
    The AfD's success is extremely worrying and an example of how the "far right" moniker is used to fit too broad a range of parties.

    The AfD are actually far right. They are several orders of magnitude nastier than Marine Le Pen's RN (they are though more akin to her father's original FN) or Giorgia Meloni's Brother's of Italy, which is closer to our Tories than to the AfD.
    One thing I have observed is how the term 'far right' has been used as a way of shifting views and opinion out of the 'respectable mainstream' by associating it with the rise of fascism. The problem is then that, once pushed outside of the acceptable mainstream, the right become more and more extreme, until they eventually become a significant threat to the 'mainstream' itself, as has become the case with the AfD in Germany. This is behind a lot of my concern about 'woke' stuff, and the way it has overtaken the mainstream, shutting out opposition. Eventually the opposition will emerge, and it will be ugly.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,005
    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    Scholz has today attacked the AfD's 'remigration' plan:

    https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1745361824881500244

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-lambasts-alleged-afd-remigration-plan/a-67950294

    "We will not allow someone to determine who is 'We' in our country according to whether a person has a history of immigration or not. We protect everyone — regardless of origin, skin color or how uncomfortable someone is for fanatics with assimilation fantasies."
    The AfD's success is extremely worrying and an example of how the "far right" moniker is used to fit too broad a range of parties.

    The AfD are actually far right. They are several orders of magnitude nastier than Marine Le Pen's RN (they are though more akin to her father's original FN) or Giorgia Meloni's Brother's of Italy, which is closer to our Tories than to the AfD.
    Perhaps there needs to be a new category of parties, those directly descended from far right and fascist parties but who have realised they need to assume a semblance of civilisation to gain power. AfD certainly aren't bothering with that stuff just now though they're depending on a lack of interest in their policy offer. The current German farmers' protests largely about the cutting of support/subsidies for their sector seem to be driving support to the AfD, yet I believe they're still pushing ecplicitly anti EU policies and a bonfire of the subsidies.

    I predict if/when AfD get a gangrenous finger on the levers of power, certain folk (richly represented on here) will be doing the whole 'they're not really hard right or the heirs of Hitler' mantra.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    .

    FPT: Josh Rogin notes that the ChiComs are exploiting anti-Semitism in the West:
    'Since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, the quantity and virulence of antisemitic content on China’s tightly controlled internet — especially on its social media — have skyrocketed. This unprecedented surge in antisemitism online in China could be possible only with the blessing of the Chinese government, which appears to be using anti-Jewish hate as a tool of its anti-U.S. and anti-Western diplomacy.'
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/08/china-antisemitism-online-tool-west-gaza/

    They will do almost anything to divide us. Those here who get excited about every story including Jews are helping them.

    I think Elon is rather more influential in the respect than is Leon.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936
    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited January 11
    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    It’s the way it’s always been. Enoch Powell used examples of meeting

    “ a constituent, a middle-aged, quite ordinary working man employed in one of our nationalised
    industries.”

    and the story of

    “ (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war”

    because they were people the reader would identify with and feel sympathetic towards. There’d been plenty of speeches about immigration before that didn’t have an impact at all. No one on here was talking about the post office scandal as much as they are since the tv programme, even though @cyclefree wrote about it a lot just for us. It’s because stories with real characters in are more relatable than the raw facts and legal details

    Not to criticise Cyclefree’s work at all, she was ahead of the game. But I must admit I didn’t read any of it until just now. I never really read many of the headers on here
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    That's exactly the point: this is not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours. But the fact this scandal has happened shows that the mature liberal democracy of ours doesn't actually work when it matters.

    And it's the plebs that suffer every time. Perhaps - just perhaps = if some of the people who think they matter - the managers, the lawyers, the politicians etc - start suffering for decisions they made, then they might actually try to do better in future.

    It's probably a vain hope; but by God, I hope the people who did this to those people, and those who contributed to ignoring it for so many years, get their comeuppance.

    Then they might start trying to make this mature liberal democracy of ours work.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    McCartney might have some questions to answer, if more emerges about how ICL/Fujitsu was chosen.

    It is already evidenced that the paper that went to the Board recommended not shortlisting the ICL bid, because of weaknesses. Strangely at the meeting it was shortlisted, and eventually chosen
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,970
    Even if Rupe somehow comes up with a copy of a letter imploring the Post Office to launch more prosecutions of sub-postmasters jointly signed by Starmer and Davey, I’m still not voting Tory. I am DONE withe this government.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,499
    Another thing that could help Haley is the increasing evidence that the Loser might lose swing states, foe example, Pennsylvania: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3888

    And that in spite of serious weaknesses in Biden's record. Two examples: First, the continuing death toll from opiod overdoses, which contributed to the decline in US life expectancy, beginning in the last years of the Obama presidency.

    Second, the serious problems with the US military, for example, the US Navy: 'Yet the Navy enters 2024 in rough seas: Its struggle to build new ships, maintain existing ones — and recruit sailors — will take time and money to solve.

    For too long, Washington has engaged in magical thinking about all of this. Concerned about China’s growing maritime presence, Congress has lately been authorizing the purchase of about 11 new warships every year, but the United States has the industrial capacity to build only a portion of those. Lawmakers, for example, typically order two submarines and three destroyers a year; but there are only enough skilled workers and materials to build and finish one of the former and two of the latter. On net, Congress isn’t increasing the Navy — the fleet, in fact, will shrink by a ship or two in 2028. It’s just padding the order books of a few big defense contractors.'
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/04/navy-houthis-ships-shipyards-sailors/

    These problems predate he Biden administration, of course. But it is fair to say that our last three presidents, Obama, Trump, and Biden, have done little or nothing to solve them, may even have made them worse.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    McCartney might have some questions to answer, if more emerges about how ICL/Fujitsu was chosen.

    It is already evidenced that the paper that went to the Board recommended not shortlisting the ICL bid, because of weaknesses. Strangely at the meeting it was shortlisted, and eventually chosen
    Ian McCartney giving evidence to the inquiry in December 2022, along with Alan Johnson.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_7Y6xGNlr0
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    ...

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    Hollinrake has been excellent
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    It’s the way it’s always been. Enoch Powell used examples of meeting

    “ a constituent, a middle-aged, quite ordinary working man employed in one of our nationalised
    industries.”

    and the story of

    “ (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war”

    because they were people the reader would identify with and feel sympathetic towards. There’d been plenty of speeches about immigration before that didn’t have an impact at all. No one on here was talking about the post office scandal as much as they are since the tv programme, even though @cyclefree wrote about it a lot just for us. It’s because stories with real characters in are more relatable than the raw facts and legal details

    Not to criticise Cyclefree’s work at all, she was ahead of the game. But I must admit I didn’t read any of it until just now. I never really read many of the headers on here
    Now. I know you have gone bananas.

    Who quotes Enoch Powell in their 2024 posts? What about a Peter Griffiths election slogan to discourage voting Labour for good measure?
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,770
    FPT
    Scott_xP said:

    We know that the later the election is postponed, the worse it will be for the Tories. I wonder if the same is true for the SNP?

    Posted a few days ago. There is a theory that if the SNP get hammered in an early GE, Katie Forbes might stage another leadership contest.

    If Yousless hangs on longer cos the GE is delayed, the threat of a challenge diminishes until after the next Holyrood vote
    Kate Forbes has a recent baby to manage - why should she want 62 more?
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,499
    Nigelb said: "I think Elon is rather more influential in the respect than is Leon."
    Agreed.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    The reason the two knights are copping most of the flak is that Sir Ed is the one the main character from the show felt most let down by & Sir Keir’s vanity led him to wear his time as DPP as a halo with a big arrow pointing at it; it’s understandable his detractors are going to pounce on this
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911

    ...

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    Hollinrake has been excellent
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    It’s the way it’s always been. Enoch Powell used examples of meeting

    “ a constituent, a middle-aged, quite ordinary working man employed in one of our nationalised
    industries.”

    and the story of

    “ (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war”

    because they were people the reader would identify with and feel sympathetic towards. There’d been plenty of speeches about immigration before that didn’t have an impact at all. No one on here was talking about the post office scandal as much as they are since the tv programme, even though @cyclefree wrote about it a lot just for us. It’s because stories with real characters in are more relatable than the raw facts and legal details

    Not to criticise Cyclefree’s work at all, she was ahead of the game. But I must admit I didn’t read any of it until just now. I never really read many of the headers on here
    Now. I know you have gone bananas.

    Who quotes Enoch Powell in their 2024 posts? What about a Peter Griffiths election slogan to discourage voting Labour for good measure?
    Oh is there a historical cut off point beyond which we must not mention politicians or famous speeches? Let me know when it is please and you’d best tell a few others as well
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    darkage said:

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    Scholz has today attacked the AfD's 'remigration' plan:

    https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1745361824881500244

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-lambasts-alleged-afd-remigration-plan/a-67950294

    "We will not allow someone to determine who is 'We' in our country according to whether a person has a history of immigration or not. We protect everyone — regardless of origin, skin color or how uncomfortable someone is for fanatics with assimilation fantasies."
    The AfD's success is extremely worrying and an example of how the "far right" moniker is used to fit too broad a range of parties.

    The AfD are actually far right. They are several orders of magnitude nastier than Marine Le Pen's RN (they are though more akin to her father's original FN) or Giorgia Meloni's Brother's of Italy, which is closer to our Tories than to the AfD.
    One thing I have observed is how the term 'far right' has been used as a way of shifting views and opinion out of the 'respectable mainstream' by associating it with the rise of fascism. The problem is then that, once pushed outside of the acceptable mainstream, the right become more and more extreme, until they eventually become a significant threat to the 'mainstream' itself, as has become the case with the AfD in Germany. This is behind a lot of my concern about 'woke' stuff, and the way it has overtaken the mainstream, shutting out opposition. Eventually the opposition will emerge, and it will be ugly.
    The issue with both Le Pen and Meloni is their political ancestry. The Front National in France was properly far right, and the Italian fascists were, well, fascists. So when their political and sometimes actual heirs assume leadership of a right wing party it's understandable they are seen as far right.

    As Theuniondivvie says, this is a particular category: erstwhile extremist movements that come in partially from the cold albeit with lingering suspicions about how far into the warmth they've really come. There aren't really any obvious examples in the UK but Sinn Fein is a left wing Irish example and various former rebel groups now in power in Latin America are others. Perhaps we call them centripetal parties.

    Then there are the opposite: erstwhile centre-right or centre-left parties that turn populist or even extremist. Orban's Fidesz is one example, Poland's PiS another and Putin's united Russia in theory another. And with Trump looking set to be the GOP candidate I think the US Republicans already crossed that threshold too. Centrifugal parties.

    Therefore France's RN is on the centripetal populist right, while the Republicans and our Tories have since 2016 been on the centrifugal centre right. Which leaves parties that start at one point of the spectrum and stay there, like our Greens or Germany's CDU, which we can perhaps call geostationary orbiting parties.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,614
    edited January 11

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    Exactly. The the campaign I am involved in, started in 2012 so I could complain about an enormous list of Tory ministers (and some LD ones), however some of our best supporters are Tory MPs as well. It is the system that needs sorting. The ministers are inundated and a lot of it is crap. They rely on civil servants to sort it and who want to avoid controversies. Too many ministers are incurious or just don't have the time and a lot of this stuff is very complex so it is impossible to get one's head around everything, plus most have no idea about the details of their brief and then get moved on to another ministry once they do.

    To end this post on a positive note I am going to say something positive about an MP regarding the campaign I am involved in. There are quite a few MPs I could give a positive shout for, but I am going to pick one in particular:

    Oliver Letwin was brilliant. He understood the details of the complaint and fought hard on the campaign's behalf. Sadly no longer an MP.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    New Hampshire GOP primary, BE odds

    Trump 1.52 / 1.56
    Haley 2.84 / 3.25

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223236887
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    darkage said:

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    Scholz has today attacked the AfD's 'remigration' plan:

    https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1745361824881500244

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-lambasts-alleged-afd-remigration-plan/a-67950294

    "We will not allow someone to determine who is 'We' in our country according to whether a person has a history of immigration or not. We protect everyone — regardless of origin, skin color or how uncomfortable someone is for fanatics with assimilation fantasies."
    The AfD's success is extremely worrying and an example of how the "far right" moniker is used to fit too broad a range of parties.

    The AfD are actually far right. They are several orders of magnitude nastier than Marine Le Pen's RN (they are though more akin to her father's original FN) or Giorgia Meloni's Brother's of Italy, which is closer to our Tories than to the AfD.
    One thing I have observed is how the term 'far right' has been used as a way of shifting views and opinion out of the 'respectable mainstream' by associating it with the rise of fascism. The problem is then that, once pushed outside of the acceptable mainstream, the right become more and more extreme, until they eventually become a significant threat to the 'mainstream' itself, as has become the case with the AfD in Germany. This is behind a lot of my concern about 'woke' stuff, and the way it has overtaken the mainstream, shutting out opposition. Eventually the opposition will emerge, and it will be ugly.
    It's almost as if somebody wrote a whole article about the difficulty in classifying political parties... https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/07/classification/
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,293
    edited January 11
    @Richard_Tyndall

    Good list.

    I think Lamb gets a pass for showing some kind of interest. Swinson appears to have been particularly cloth- eared.

    As a general rule of thumb I think you can say that the earlier incumbents bear less blame and the newer ones significanly more, simply because the Scandal became increasingly obvious over time.

    Edit: Smithson jnr and I did not collude on that.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    I mostly blame Jo Swinson.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    I mostly blame Jo Swinson.
    But what about for this scandal?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    edited January 11
    FPT

    So one of the suggestions doing the rounds is the CPS prosecutions were where

    I) The guilty party genuinely was guilty and importantly

    II) Branched out to into other crimes like money laundering which the PO couldn’t prosecute

    If this true then Starmer should be safe.

    So a drug dealing sub-Postmaster / money launderer will now get at least £75k taxpayers compo and will have his conviction quashed if Horizon was used in any way shape or form to execute the prosecution?

    FFS!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937

    @Richard_Tyndall

    Good list.

    I think Lamb gets a pass for showing some kind of interest. Swinson appears to have been particularly cloth- eared.

    As a general rule of thumb I think you can say that the earlier incumbents bear less blame and the newer ones significanly more, simply because the Scandal became increasingly obvious over time.

    Edit: Smithson jnr and I did not collude on that.

    Yes, but at one point things started moving. For instance, does blame start decreasing once the prosecutions stopped happening? After the inquiry was called? Or does it just keep on increasing up until ITV showed the drama?
  • Options
    @kjh

    Letwin is one of my faves too. Nick Palmer is also a fan, I believe.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    It’s the way it’s always been. Enoch Powell used examples of meeting

    “ a constituent, a middle-aged, quite ordinary working man employed in one of our nationalised
    industries.”

    and the story of

    “ (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war”

    because they were people the reader would identify with and feel sympathetic towards. There’d been plenty of speeches about immigration before that didn’t have an impact at all. No one on here was talking about the post office scandal as much as they are since the tv programme, even though @cyclefree wrote about it a lot just for us. It’s because stories with real characters in are more relatable than the raw facts and legal details

    Not to criticise Cyclefree’s work at all, she was ahead of the game. But I must admit I didn’t read any of it until just now. I never really read many of the headers on here
    Yep Enoch knew how to grab the headlines. Some say he was taken aback at the reaction to his warnings about white supremacy being under threat in Britain. Others think he was looking for exactly that reaction. You'd have a view, no doubt? One of your hot topics.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,499
    DavidL said: "Flying in that [weather] might winnow the field somewhat. But we are probably not that lucky."

    True. Flying on little airplanes is one of the hazards for American politicians. Here's partial list of such deaths, up to 2010:
    https://www.cnn.com/2013/08/20/us/american-politician-plane-fatalities-fast-facts/index.html

    A North Dakota state senator died in a crash last October: https://apnews.com/article/utah-plane-crash-moab-killed-a7064a4f3a883be6f920fb647d10c6ca

    (I would like to think that US small planes are safer now than they were, say, 20 years ago, but haven't looked for any numbers.
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,770
    Scott_xP said:

    @ScotNational

    BREAKING: A former SNP councillor has defected to Scottish Labour, according to reports.

    It is understood that Beth Baudo, who quit the SNP last year, has now joined Anas Sarwar's party in North Lanarkshire.

    As the splinter group vowed to move away from national matters that can’t be changed at a council level to local concerns, I'm surprised that it took this long for any of them to move. Look for a drip-feed of more going the same way in the future.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    Humza Yousaf takes a decision nearly everyone can agree with.

    "Yousaf says Scotland will 'in essence replicate' England's ban on having XL bully dogs without licence"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jan/11/labour-keir-starmer-post-office-scandal-conservatives-rishi-sunak-uk-politics-live
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    I see Mr Fascism is the answer AKA Matthew Goodwin is still being posted.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    ...
    isam said:

    ...

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    Hollinrake has been excellent
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    It’s the way it’s always been. Enoch Powell used examples of meeting

    “ a constituent, a middle-aged, quite ordinary working man employed in one of our nationalised
    industries.”

    and the story of

    “ (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war”

    because they were people the reader would identify with and feel sympathetic towards. There’d been plenty of speeches about immigration before that didn’t have an impact at all. No one on here was talking about the post office scandal as much as they are since the tv programme, even though @cyclefree wrote about it a lot just for us. It’s because stories with real characters in are more relatable than the raw facts and legal details

    Not to criticise Cyclefree’s work at all, she was ahead of the game. But I must admit I didn’t read any of it until just now. I never really read many of the headers on here
    Now. I know you have gone bananas.

    Who quotes Enoch Powell in their 2024 posts? What about a Peter Griffiths election slogan to discourage voting Labour for good measure?
    Oh is there a historical cut off point beyond which we must not mention politicians or famous speeches? Let me know when it is please and you’d best tell a few others as well
    Not at all. You can use the Rivers of Blood speech if you like to demonstrate how disgusting rhetoric can contaminate the national discourse.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    @ScotNational

    BREAKING: A former SNP councillor has defected to Scottish Labour, according to reports.

    It is understood that Beth Baudo, who quit the SNP last year, has now joined Anas Sarwar's party in North Lanarkshire.

    That’s what I call a patriot.

    They’ve rejected division and now supports unity.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @YouGov

    The Conservative party is now seen as being as right wing as 2014-16 era UKIP

    Average left/right wing score of party (higher scores mean more right wing)

    UKIP 2014-2016: +60
    Conservative party 2019-present: +58

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1745460031087427726?s=20
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635
    Hmm. Graun feed says Mr Yousaf indicates a Sewel motion adopting the Sunak proposals re PO might be adopted at Holyrood.

    This also came up:

    'The Scottish Tory leader, Douglas Ross, called for the lord advocate to make a statement to MSPs after the BBC revealed that the Crown Office was first informed of possible issues with Horizon in May 2013.

    Humza Yousaf, the first minister, responded that he had been told the Crown Office at that point provided guidance to courts to treat cases on evidence that did not rely on Horizon, meaning that after that the Crown Office would not prosecute solely on Horizon evidence.'
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    edited January 11

    FPT

    So one of the suggestions doing the rounds is the CPS prosecutions were where

    I) The guilty party genuinely was guilty and importantly

    II) Branched out to into other crimes like money laundering which the PO couldn’t prosecute

    If this true then Starmer should be safe.

    So a drug dealing sub-Postmaster / money launderer will now get at least £75k taxpayers compo and will have his conviction quashed if Horizon was used in any way shape or form to execute the prosecution?

    FFS!
    That's what happens when a government which has ignored an issue for well over a decade decides it needs to be sorted sharpish.
    Nothing to do with an election in the next year, of course.

    I am more bothered by the precedent of Parliament deciding it can assume (even if temporarily), the functions of the criminal justice system.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474

    @kjh

    Letwin is one of my faves too. Nick Palmer is also a fan, I believe.

    A fine MP.
    Perhaps a shame he didn't possess slightly more political nous.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    edited January 11
    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    The Conservative party is now seen as being as right wing as 2014-16 era UKIP

    Average left/right wing score of party (higher scores mean more right wing)

    UKIP 2014-2016: +60
    Conservative party 2019-present: +58

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1745460031087427726?s=20

    This is almost useless data; YouGov could actually assist the political process by asking people what they meant by the terms they are using; 'left', 'right' and 'centre', and giving both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the responses.

    NB Viewcode wrote about this in an article a few days ago; this was very good, and, as they say, more research is needed.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    edited January 11

    @Richard_Tyndall

    Good list.

    I think Lamb gets a pass for showing some kind of interest. Swinson appears to have been particularly cloth- eared.

    As a general rule of thumb I think you can say that the earlier incumbents bear less blame and the newer ones significanly more, simply because the Scandal became increasingly obvious over time.

    Edit: Smithson jnr and I did not collude on that.

    The business Secretaries in charge of the department, particularly in later years, are hardly free from political responsibility, either.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,596
    TimS said:

    darkage said:

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    Scholz has today attacked the AfD's 'remigration' plan:

    https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1745361824881500244

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-lambasts-alleged-afd-remigration-plan/a-67950294

    "We will not allow someone to determine who is 'We' in our country according to whether a person has a history of immigration or not. We protect everyone — regardless of origin, skin color or how uncomfortable someone is for fanatics with assimilation fantasies."
    The AfD's success is extremely worrying and an example of how the "far right" moniker is used to fit too broad a range of parties.

    The AfD are actually far right. They are several orders of magnitude nastier than Marine Le Pen's RN (they are though more akin to her father's original FN) or Giorgia Meloni's Brother's of Italy, which is closer to our Tories than to the AfD.
    One thing I have observed is how the term 'far right' has been used as a way of shifting views and opinion out of the 'respectable mainstream' by associating it with the rise of fascism. The problem is then that, once pushed outside of the acceptable mainstream, the right become more and more extreme, until they eventually become a significant threat to the 'mainstream' itself, as has become the case with the AfD in Germany. This is behind a lot of my concern about 'woke' stuff, and the way it has overtaken the mainstream, shutting out opposition. Eventually the opposition will emerge, and it will be ugly.
    The issue with both Le Pen and Meloni is their political ancestry. The Front National in France was properly far right, and the Italian fascists were, well, fascists. So when their political and sometimes actual heirs assume leadership of a right wing party it's understandable they are seen as far right.

    As Theuniondivvie says, this is a particular category: erstwhile extremist movements that come in partially from the cold albeit with lingering suspicions about how far into the warmth they've really come. There aren't really any obvious examples in the UK but Sinn Fein is a left wing Irish example and various former rebel groups now in power in Latin America are others. Perhaps we call them centripetal parties.

    Then there are the opposite: erstwhile centre-right or centre-left parties that turn populist or even extremist. Orban's Fidesz is one example, Poland's PiS another and Putin's united Russia in theory another. And with Trump looking set to be the GOP candidate I think the US Republicans already crossed that threshold too. Centrifugal parties.

    Therefore France's RN is on the centripetal populist right, while the Republicans and our Tories have since 2016 been on the centrifugal centre right. Which leaves parties that start at one point of the spectrum and stay there, like our Greens or Germany's CDU, which we can perhaps call geostationary orbiting parties.
    I would disagree about our Greens being geostationary. They used to be environmentalists, now they are just a Jeremy Corbyn tribute act.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    ...
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911

    ...

    isam said:

    ...

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    Hollinrake has been excellent
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    It’s the way it’s always been. Enoch Powell used examples of meeting

    “ a constituent, a middle-aged, quite ordinary working man employed in one of our nationalised
    industries.”

    and the story of

    “ (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war”

    because they were people the reader would identify with and feel sympathetic towards. There’d been plenty of speeches about immigration before that didn’t have an impact at all. No one on here was talking about the post office scandal as much as they are since the tv programme, even though @cyclefree wrote about it a lot just for us. It’s because stories with real characters in are more relatable than the raw facts and legal details

    Not to criticise Cyclefree’s work at all, she was ahead of the game. But I must admit I didn’t read any of it until just now. I never really read many of the headers on here
    Now. I know you have gone bananas.

    Who quotes Enoch Powell in their 2024 posts? What about a Peter Griffiths election slogan to discourage voting Labour for good measure?
    Oh is there a historical cut off point beyond which we must not mention politicians or famous speeches? Let me know when it is please and you’d best tell a few others as well
    Not at all. You can use the Rivers of Blood speech if you like to demonstrate how disgusting rhetoric can contaminate the national discourse.
    Grateful for the permission
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937

    FPT

    So one of the suggestions doing the rounds is the CPS prosecutions were where

    I) The guilty party genuinely was guilty and importantly

    II) Branched out to into other crimes like money laundering which the PO couldn’t prosecute

    If this true then Starmer should be safe.

    So a drug dealing sub-Postmaster / money launderer will now get at least £75k taxpayers compo and will have his conviction quashed if Horizon was used in any way shape or form to execute the prosecution?

    FFS!
    I am (obviously) not a lawyer, but surely Horizon's reputation has been so sullied by this mess that any prosecution where it was used as evidence is automatically suspect?

    And that's leaving aside the fact that the PO's management and legal team were so keen to win prosecutions, they would lie and manipulate in order to win. Again, that puts a massive dose of doubt over any prosecution.

    Hence I wonder if anyone prosecuted using (even in a small way) data from the Horizon system can be retried. If I was on a jury now, and part of the prosecution evidence involved Horizon, I would not only ignore the Horizon evidence; I would probably view the entire prosecution with cynicism.

    And I'm unsure how point I) on TSE's post "The guilty party genuinely was guilty" can be ascertained *before* a trial?

    And BTW, be careful not to be so keen to get a dig in at the government, that you don't start smearing the postmasters.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    TimS said:

    darkage said:

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov, Germany

    CDU/CSU 29% (-1)
    AfD 24% (+1)
    SPD 15% (+1)
    Green 12% (-2)
    FDP 6% (nc)
    Left 5% (+1)
    FW 2% (nc)
    Oth 7% (nc)

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    AfD spokesperson for work and social affairs:

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694

    "We will return foreigners to their homeland. By the millions.

    This is not a secret plan. This is a promise.

    For more security. For more justice. To preserve our identity. For Germany."
    Do we know to what extent AfD polling is reflected in real elections, i.e. is it like UKIP in the 2010s which met or exceeded polling in byelections and other elections, or like RefUK now where the polling is runnign way ahead of actual votes?
    They've done fairly well in state elections, for example coming second in Hesse in the former West Germany, and they won a mayoral election in Saxony.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67751605
    The EU elections are going to be fun aren’t they?
    Scholz has today attacked the AfD's 'remigration' plan:

    https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1745361824881500244

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-lambasts-alleged-afd-remigration-plan/a-67950294

    "We will not allow someone to determine who is 'We' in our country according to whether a person has a history of immigration or not. We protect everyone — regardless of origin, skin color or how uncomfortable someone is for fanatics with assimilation fantasies."
    The AfD's success is extremely worrying and an example of how the "far right" moniker is used to fit too broad a range of parties.

    The AfD are actually far right. They are several orders of magnitude nastier than Marine Le Pen's RN (they are though more akin to her father's original FN) or Giorgia Meloni's Brother's of Italy, which is closer to our Tories than to the AfD.
    One thing I have observed is how the term 'far right' has been used as a way of shifting views and opinion out of the 'respectable mainstream' by associating it with the rise of fascism. The problem is then that, once pushed outside of the acceptable mainstream, the right become more and more extreme, until they eventually become a significant threat to the 'mainstream' itself, as has become the case with the AfD in Germany. This is behind a lot of my concern about 'woke' stuff, and the way it has overtaken the mainstream, shutting out opposition. Eventually the opposition will emerge, and it will be ugly.
    The issue with both Le Pen and Meloni is their political ancestry. The Front National in France was properly far right, and the Italian fascists were, well, fascists. So when their political and sometimes actual heirs assume leadership of a right wing party it's understandable they are seen as far right.

    As Theuniondivvie says, this is a particular category: erstwhile extremist movements that come in partially from the cold albeit with lingering suspicions about how far into the warmth they've really come. There aren't really any obvious examples in the UK but Sinn Fein is a left wing Irish example and various former rebel groups now in power in Latin America are others. Perhaps we call them centripetal parties.

    Then there are the opposite: erstwhile centre-right or centre-left parties that turn populist or even extremist. Orban's Fidesz is one example, Poland's PiS another and Putin's united Russia in theory another. And with Trump looking set to be the GOP candidate I think the US Republicans already crossed that threshold too. Centrifugal parties.

    Therefore France's RN is on the centripetal populist right, while the Republicans and our Tories have since 2016 been on the centrifugal centre right. Which leaves parties that start at one point of the spectrum and stay there, like our Greens or Germany's CDU, which we can perhaps call geostationary orbiting parties.
    I would disagree about our Greens being geostationary. They used to be environmentalists, now they are just a Jeremy Corbyn tribute act.
    My own experience suggests they were always watermelons.

    I "stood" in our school mock Euro elections in 1994 as the Green party candidate (actually as the "Delboy" party - Democratic and Environmental Left for Oncoming Years). We won by a landslide of course because we bombarded the school with humorous posters full of double entendres.

    In the run up we had a lunch at Hereford town hall with a few of the local actual candidates and I remember my fellow Green's talk very clearly. She argued that growth was the problem and we need to focus on shrinking GDP but making it greener and more equitable. Exactly the same language they use these days.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    It’s the way it’s always been. Enoch Powell used examples of meeting

    “ a constituent, a middle-aged, quite ordinary working man employed in one of our nationalised
    industries.”

    and the story of

    “ (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war”

    because they were people the reader would identify with and feel sympathetic towards. There’d been plenty of speeches about immigration before that didn’t have an impact at all. No one on here was talking about the post office scandal as much as they are since the tv programme, even though @cyclefree wrote about it a lot just for us. It’s because stories with real characters in are more relatable than the raw facts and legal details

    Not to criticise Cyclefree’s work at all, she was ahead of the game. But I must admit I didn’t read any of it until just now. I never really read many of the headers on here
    Yep Enoch knew how to grab the headlines. Some say he was taken aback at the reaction to his warnings about white supremacy being under threat in Britain. Others think he was looking for exactly that reaction. You'd have a view, no doubt? One of your hot topics.
    A topic I’m interested in, yes. I’d say he was looking for that reaction. Obviously the words ‘white supremacy’ are very loaded, and I don’t agree with the implication he was a white supremacist
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,908
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    So one of the suggestions doing the rounds is the CPS prosecutions were where

    I) The guilty party genuinely was guilty and importantly

    II) Branched out to into other crimes like money laundering which the PO couldn’t prosecute

    If this true then Starmer should be safe.

    So a drug dealing sub-Postmaster / money launderer will now get at least £75k taxpayers compo and will have his conviction quashed if Horizon was used in any way shape or form to execute the prosecution?

    FFS!
    That's what happens when a government which has ignored an issue for well over a decade decides it needs to be sorted sharpish.
    Nothing to do with an election in the next year, of course.

    I am more bothered by the precedent of Parliament deciding it can assume (even if temporarily), the functions of the criminal justice system.
    The legal system has fucked up very very badly though...
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    @kjh

    Letwin is one of my faves too. Nick Palmer is also a fan, I believe.

    Yes. Among other things, the only front-bencher on either side who was willing to listen to argument and withdraw an amendment that he'd put down because he was persuaded that it would be a mistake.

    Pre-Brexit we were going to write a book about the EU, setting out agreed facts and offering alternative views of them (he was a mild Brexiteer), but he got promoted and was no longer available for non-partisan publications.
    Letwin also seems like a centripetal politician by instinct. He was very much a Thatcherite rightwinger in the Major years but seemed to drift more centrist over time.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    edited January 11

    FPT

    So one of the suggestions doing the rounds is the CPS prosecutions were where

    I) The guilty party genuinely was guilty and importantly

    II) Branched out to into other crimes like money laundering which the PO couldn’t prosecute

    If this true then Starmer should be safe.

    So a drug dealing sub-Postmaster / money launderer will now get at least £75k taxpayers compo and will have his conviction quashed if Horizon was used in any way shape or form to execute the prosecution?

    FFS!
    I am (obviously) not a lawyer, but surely Horizon's reputation has been so sullied by this mess that any prosecution where it was used as evidence is automatically suspect?

    And that's leaving aside the fact that the PO's management and legal team were so keen to win prosecutions, they would lie and manipulate in order to win. Again, that puts a massive dose of doubt over any prosecution.

    Hence I wonder if anyone prosecuted using (even in a small way) data from the Horizon system can be retried. If I was on a jury now, and part of the prosecution evidence involved Horizon, I would not only ignore the Horizon evidence; I would probably view the entire prosecution with cynicism.

    And I'm unsure how point I) on TSE's post "The guilty party genuinely was guilty" can be ascertained *before* a trial?

    And BTW, be careful not to be so keen to get a dig in at the government, that you don't start smearing the postmasters.
    This is one of the reasons some of the victims are not particularly happy with this settlement (one was interviewed on PM last night).
    They too would have preferred to have been exonerated through the courts, and found the rationale for being required to sign an innocence statement somewhat insulting.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @JohnRentoul

    It is a complete mystery why Tony Blair was the most successful PM of modern history


  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @YouGov

    The Conservative party is now seen as being as right wing as 2014-16 era UKIP

    Average left/right wing score of party (higher scores mean more right wing)

    UKIP 2014-2016: +60
    Conservative party 2019-present: +58

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1745460031087427726?s=20

    This is almost useless data; YouGov could actually assist the political process by asking people what they meant by the terms they are using; 'left', 'right' and 'centre', and giving both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the responses.

    NB Viewcode wrote about this in an article a few days ago; this was very good, and, as they say, more research is needed.
    Thank you. https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/07/classification/
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,547
    Results of Iowa Precinct Caucuses since 1972, source Des Moines Public Library:

    "Prior to 1972 the Iowa caucuses were not the presidential testing ground they are today. The caucuses moved to the forefront as a result of legislation passed by the General Assembly which dictated the latest date caucuses could be held (the second Monday in May) but did not limit how early they could be held.

    In addition to this legislation, the Democratic party of Iowa “added a clause to their party constitution requiring thirty days between party functions,” (Winebrenner 1987). This resulted in January 24 as the latest possible date for the democratic caucuses in 1972, moving Iowa ahead of the New Hampshire primaries.

    https://www.dmpl.org/research/local-history-genealogy/iowa-caucuses
    (additional details via wiki)

    Note: Unlike with Iowa Democrats, Republican percentages below based on total statewide votes cast at precinct caucuses.

    1980
    Republican turnout 106,051
    George Bush 32% > vice pres nominee > VP
    Ronald Reagan 29.5% > nominee > POTUS
    Howard Baker 15%
    John Connally 9%
    Phil Crane 7%
    John Anderson 4% > independent
    Bob Dole 1.5%

    1984
    Republican - Ronald Reagan unopposed

    1988
    Republican turnout 108,806
    Bob Dole 37%
    Pat Robertson 25%
    George Bush 19% > nominee > POTUS
    Jack Kemp 11%
    Pete du Pont 7%

    1992
    Republican - George Bush unopposed

    1996
    Republican turnout 96,451)
    Bob Dole 26% > nominee
    Pat Buchanan 23%
    Lamar Alexander 18%
    Steve Forbes 10%
    Phil Gramm 9%
    Alan Keyes 7%
    Dick Lugar 4%

    2000
    Republican turnout 86,440
    George W Bush 41% > nominee > POTUS
    Steve Forbes 30%
    Alan Keyes 14%
    Gary Bauer 9%
    John McCain 5%

    2004
    Republican - George W Bush unopposed

    2008
    Republican turnout 118,411
    Mike Huckabee 34.4%
    Mitt Romney 25.2%
    Fred Thompson 13.4%
    John McCain 13.1% > nominee
    Ron Paul 10%
    Rudy Giuliani 3.5%
    Hunter (Duncan) .4%
    Hatch (Orrin) 1%\

    2012
    Republican turnout 122,255
    Rick Santorum 24.56% = note Santorum won by +34 votes statewide
    Mitt Romney 24.53%
    Ron Paul 21.5%
    New Gingrich 13.3%
    Rick Perry 10.4%
    Michele Bachmann 5%
    Jon Huntsman 0.6%

    2016
    Republican turnout 186,932
    Ted Cruz 27.65%
    Donald Trump 24.31%
    Marco Rubio 23.1%

    2020
    Republican turnout 32,345
    Donald Trump 97.1%
    William Weld 1.3%
    Joe Walsh 1.1%
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    Hilarious on here this afternoon.

    Hilarious.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    So the PO scandal is ignored for years. Then itv do a tearjerk drama and, boom, suddenly every tom dick and harry has a strong and similar take on it, the government rushes to override the legal system, and anyone with the remotest connection to it is stuffed and really ought to be resigning and preferably locked up.

    It's great that the whole thing has exploded, finally, but at the same time it feels a pretty ludicrous state of affairs. At least to me it does. This is surely not the way things should work in this mature liberal democracy of ours.

    It’s the way it’s always been. Enoch Powell used examples of meeting

    “ a constituent, a middle-aged, quite ordinary working man employed in one of our nationalised
    industries.”

    and the story of

    “ (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war”

    because they were people the reader would identify with and feel sympathetic towards. There’d been plenty of speeches about immigration before that didn’t have an impact at all. No one on here was talking about the post office scandal as much as they are since the tv programme, even though @cyclefree wrote about it a lot just for us. It’s because stories with real characters in are more relatable than the raw facts and legal details

    Not to criticise Cyclefree’s work at all, she was ahead of the game. But I must admit I didn’t read any of it until just now. I never really read many of the headers on here
    Yep Enoch knew how to grab the headlines. Some say he was taken aback at the reaction to his warnings about white supremacy being under threat in Britain. Others think he was looking for exactly that reaction. You'd have a view, no doubt? One of your hot topics.
    A topic I’m interested in, yes. I’d say he was looking for that reaction. Obviously the words ‘white supremacy’ are very loaded, and I don’t agree with the implication he was a white supremacist
    He was though. At best you can say he aspired to be a benign white supremacist - his early career ambition was to be Viceroy of India, to which end he learned two Indian languages - but he took it as axiomatic that races could not peacefully coexist on equal terms and that therefore either one had to hold the whip hand or they had to lead separate lives.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,014


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Because they aren't Tories and at this stage frankly straw will do?
    He must have questions to answer too.

    image
    His wife certainly does

  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936
    kjh said:

    kjh said:


    Why both Keir Starmer and Ed Davey face questions over Horizon

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-post-office-cases-legal-lawyer-w83c3v0c5

    Yep no political bias there by you at all I see.

    I tell you what, rather than going for individual politicians, because by god there are dozens in the frame, not just these two, how about trying to solve the endemic problem of these events being swept under the carpet. Enough lives have been destroyed.

    I could list out a whole lot of Tories involved in the post office scandal and the scandal I'm helping to resolve. I don't because it is pointless, because I could also make a list of the good guys and frankly both lists consist of MPs from all parties. It is the system.

    I rather like @noneoftheabove post from the previous thread in reply to one of my posts:

    'My quarterly call on here for cabinet ministers to need to have served 3 years either as a junior minister (or shadow) or on a relevant select committee to be eligible to serve. Would give us more interested and knowledgeable ministers and slightly reduce the power of the parties/PMs patronage.'

    I would also like to see outside specialist appointments. It has been done a few times.
    If we want to spread the 'love' around, this is the list of ministers with responsibility for the Post Office since 1997

    Ian McCartney
    Alan Johnson
    Douglas Alexander
    Stephen Timms
    Gerry Sutcliffe
    Jim Fitzpatrick
    Pat McFadden
    Lord Young of Norwood Green
    Ed Davey
    Norman Lamb
    Jo Swinson (twice, before and after Jenny Willott)
    Jenny Willott
    Anna Soubry
    Margot James
    Andrew Griffiths
    Kelly Tolhurst
    Paul Scully
    Jane Hunt
    Dean Russell
    Kevin Hollinrake
    Exactly. The the campaign I am involved in, started in 2012 so I could complain about an enormous list of Tory ministers (and some LD ones), however some of our best supporters are Tory MPs as well. It is the system that needs sorting. The ministers are inundated and a lot of it is crap. They rely on civil servants to sort it and who want to avoid controversies. Too many ministers are incurious or just don't have the time and a lot of this stuff is very complex so it is impossible to get one's head around everything, plus most have no idea about the details of their brief and then get moved on to another ministry once they do.

    To end this post on a positive note I am going to say something positive about an MP regarding the campaign I am involved in. There are quite a few MPs I could give a positive shout for, but I am going to pick one in particular:

    Oliver Letwin was brilliant. He understood the details of the complaint and fought hard on the campaign's behalf. Sadly no longer an MP.
    Also worth nboting I suppose that, continuing the theme of workload, Postal Affairs Minister, when it exists at all as a post (which it hasn't in exactly that form for much of the period covered) is just one of a large number of posts covered by the responsible minister as part of the DTI/Department for Communities/BEIS. It has been shifted around on a regular basis and even abandoned for a time in the early 2000s.

    And I make that 20 ministers in 26 years - an average of just under 16 months for each minister (and some were much shorter than that)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    edited January 11
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    So one of the suggestions doing the rounds is the CPS prosecutions were where

    I) The guilty party genuinely was guilty and importantly

    II) Branched out to into other crimes like money laundering which the PO couldn’t prosecute

    If this true then Starmer should be safe.

    So a drug dealing sub-Postmaster / money launderer will now get at least £75k taxpayers compo and will have his conviction quashed if Horizon was used in any way shape or form to execute the prosecution?

    FFS!
    That's what happens when a government which has ignored an issue for well over a decade decides it needs to be sorted sharpish.
    Nothing to do with an election in the next year, of course.

    I am more bothered by the precedent of Parliament deciding it can assume (even if temporarily), the functions of the criminal justice system.
    The legal system has fucked up very very badly though...
    That, too is to a great extent Parliament's responsibility. The rules governing computer evidence were set by statute (during the Blair years), not by the courts.

    And the Post Office and its lawyers are very definitely not the legal system. More of a cancer on it.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,547
    Weather forecast for Des Moines, Iowa for Monday, January 15

    Daytime high -2 degrees Fahrenheit (-19 degrees Celsius)
    wind chill calculation -22 F (-20C)

    Bit on chilly side EVEN for Iowa! Indeed, predicted to be the coldest caucus night ever.
This discussion has been closed.