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An inauspicious start to 2024 for Sunak – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,159
edited January 8 in General
imageAn inauspicious start to 2024 for Sunak – politicalbetting.com

BREAKING: Former Conservative minister Chris Skidmore has said he will resign as MP. This raises the prospect of another by-election in this general election year.https://t.co/rSxzWmLhzw? Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/YGPhYbnSyM

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    FIrst like Labour in Kingswood.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 225
    Another straw in the wind which indicates an earlier rather than a later General Election. The sooner Sunak goes to the country, the less chance of more by elections, defections, resignations, floor-crossings and general bad publicity from Tory MPs. They all know the game's up. The need to jump ship is increasing by the hour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    The poll from We Think

    They say it doesn’t rain but it pours. For Labour, there’s been a flood of support this week as they increase their lead in the polls by five to 22 points.

    🔴 Lab 47% (+4)
    🔵 Con 25% (-1)
    🟠 LD 9% (-2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (-1)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1743286769598996790?t=zTKLb2az_s6pQgyAB0zEzA&s=19

    Though worth noting that they did have a big swing to the Tories in their last poll, so looks more like reversion to mean.

    An early Christmas present for Sunak and the gang, as the Labour lead melts away like winter snow – dropping 7 pts from last week’s position giving them a pre-Christmas 14 point lead.
    🔴 Lab 41% (-5)
    🔵 Con 27% (+2)
    🟠 LD 12% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 9% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1738204898032865372?t=LCg2IGX5c7Wn6NNczbv5_A&s=19
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    Why is th-fronting so common in England?

    Is it just a statement, in some regions, to affirm a working class background?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    No tick mark on Skidmore's Twix account. I was unsure but now the BBC has confirmed the news.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited January 5
    A tale of two shops in Wellingborough ahead of the likely by-election: Peter Bone’s (right) and Labour’s (left) …👇

    image
    image
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1743222358758810050?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    Point of order: I don't think it's true to say "Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals." They are important in the production of some, but it is far from most.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Bloody hell, I've seen it all now. A Tory MP resigning on a matter of principle.
    Well I never.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    A Tory with principles. Is that so very hard for you to understand?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Foxy said:

    The poll from We Think

    They say it doesn’t rain but it pours. For Labour, there’s been a flood of support this week as they increase their lead in the polls by five to 22 points.

    🔴 Lab 47% (+4)
    🔵 Con 25% (-1)
    🟠 LD 9% (-2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (-1)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1743286769598996790?t=zTKLb2az_s6pQgyAB0zEzA&s=19

    Though worth noting that they did have a big swing to the Tories in their last poll, so looks more like reversion to mean.

    An early Christmas present for Sunak and the gang, as the Labour lead melts away like winter snow – dropping 7 pts from last week’s position giving them a pre-Christmas 14 point lead.
    🔴 Lab 41% (-5)
    🔵 Con 27% (+2)
    🟠 LD 12% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 9% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1738204898032865372?t=LCg2IGX5c7Wn6NNczbv5_A&s=19

    LD 12 to 9 = -2
    Ref -1 to 10 when previously 9?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Anyone know when these two by-elections will happen. Sunak can hardly stall them until the May GE now can he?
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    It's quite depressing just watching this horror of a government collapse in on itself. Horrible being a Conservative right now.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    Benpointer said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    A Tory with principles. Is that so very hard for you to understand?
    An ex-Tory with principles is not hard at all to understand, since I am one myself too. I quit the Tories because of principle too.

    Its that his principles are wrong, and his economics is wrong, that I object to, not his quitting the Tories.

    This is a [very rare] instance where the Tories are doing the right thing. Sadly far too rare, which is why I quit the party too.

    Two wrongs don't make a right though. Yes he's quit the Tories, like me, but he's done so for the wrong reasons.

    We 100% absolutely have to tackle climate change, but we do not need to do so in a way the enriches those nations that fail to do so, by ensuring we rely upon imports from them. We need to stop polluting the planet and abolish imports of oil and gas and stop paying other nations to pollute the planet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Why is th-fronting so common in England?

    Is it just a statement, in some regions, to affirm a working class background?

    Laziness I think, more than any other sound a proper th requires the nearest smidgen of effort.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    READ OUT THE NAMES
    (with apologies to Joseph I.C. Clarke, author of "The Fighting Race")

    "Read out the names!" and TSE slaps his knee
    As PBers hoot, hiss, curse and exclaim
    Until the learned one we call Cyclefree
    Reads out the PO List of Shame.

    Politicians, lobbyists, hacks and ITers
    Labourites, LibDems and Tories galore
    Crap techies, clueless ministers, complicit lawyers
    All are there - Cyclefree calls 'em out with a roar!

    Then flicking some lint from her power suit
    Says Cyclefree, "They're all on this shit-list, I see
    For their most epic fail, to safeguard the Mail -
    Fujitsu, Vennels and Davey!"
    "Well curse their fates, I'm sorry for Bates!"
    Say SeaShantyIrish and (most of?) PB . . .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Benpointer said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    A Tory with principles. Is that so very hard for you to understand?
    An ex-Tory with principles is not hard at all to understand, since I am one myself too. I quit the Tories because of principle too.

    Its that his principles are wrong, and his economics is wrong, that I object to, not his quitting the Tories.

    This is a [very rare] instance where the Tories are doing the right thing. Sadly far too rare, which is why I quit the party too.

    Two wrongs don't make a right though. Yes he's quit the Tories, like me, but he's done so for the wrong reasons.

    We 100% absolutely have to tackle climate change, but we do not need to do so in a way the enriches those nations that fail to do so, by ensuring we rely upon imports from them. We need to stop polluting the planet and abolish imports of oil and gas and stop paying other nations to pollute the planet.
    Your principles are not my principles; I believe you are wrong. But I can respect your having principles.

    Unless I am mistaken Skidmore is giving up a chunk of money for something he clearly believes in. Credit to him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited January 5
    Northern_Al said:

    Bloody hell, I've seen it all now. A Tory MP resigning on a matter of principle.
    Well I never.

    David Davis did.

    Also, Skidmore had already announced plans to leave Parliament at the next election. So basically he is jumping 6 months early.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Why is th-fronting so common in England?

    Is it just a statement, in some regions, to affirm a working class background?

    What is th-fronting?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Bloody hell, I've seen it all now. A Tory MP resigning on a matter of principle.
    Well I never.

    David Davis did.
    A vanity by election against Cameron's wishes, which Davis knew he would win. No jeopardy there! Skidmore is somewhat different.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Bloody hell, I've seen it all now. A Tory MP resigning on a matter of principle.
    Well I never.

    David Davis did.
    A vanity by election against Cameron's wishes, which Davis knew he would win. No jeopardy there! Skidmore is somewhat different.
    Skidmore already said he would go at the GE....6 of one and half a dozen of the other in terms of principled resignations.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Benpointer said:

    A tale of two shops in Wellingborough ahead of the likely by-election: Peter Bone’s (right) and Labour’s (left) …👇

    image
    image
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1743222358758810050?s=20

    IF the by-election was a US special election, this graphic juxtaposition would be conveyed to likely (and many unlikely) voters, via campaign mailing(s), cable TV ads, web ads, txt msgs, unsocial media, candy-grams, pigeon post and any other available ways and means.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited January 5
    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Are you forgetting Aaron Bell? His previous work career and also successful appearances on tv quiz shows demonstrated he is both intelligent and well read.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    rcs1000 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    Point of order: I don't think it's true to say "Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals." They are important in the production of some, but it is far from most.
    According to this from the NIH it is most. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2848100/#:~:text=Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals,, antihistamines, and antibacterial soaps.

    Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    If that's wrong, I'm happy to hear any alternative figures, but either way its a considerable proportion as far as I'm aware.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    WildernessPt2 said:

    It's quite depressing just watching this horror of a government collapse in on itself. Horrible being a Conservative right now.

    I’m searching for the worlds smallest violin ! The general election can’t come soon enough .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    You sound a bit if a nutter from that comment.

    Our oil production makes bugger all difference to world prices.
    And substituting renewables more rapidly would benefit our balance of
    payments - and demonstrate that it’s feasible.

    A rare example of an MP with principles.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    Point of order: I don't think it's true to say "Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals." They are important in the production of some, but it is far from most.
    According to this from the NIH it is most. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2848100/#:~:text=Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals,, antihistamines, and antibacterial soaps.

    Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    If that's wrong, I'm happy to hear any alternative figures, but either way its a considerable proportion as far as I'm aware.
    Almost everything in hospitals is single-use plastic, apart from needles which are disposable metals. Time was, it would all have been cleaned, sterilised and re-used.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    I've not got Britannia Unchained to hand but After the Coalition was co-authored by:-
    • Kwasi Kwarteng
    • Priti Patel
    • Dominic Raab
    • Chris Skidmore
    • Elizabeth Truss
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    I see Joey Barton is tripling down on his take on women commenting on men's footy.
  • PoulterPoulter Posts: 62
    edited January 5
    Pulpstar said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Why is th-fronting so common in England?

    Is it just a statement, in some regions, to affirm a working class background?

    Laziness I think, more than any other sound a proper th requires the nearest smidgen of effort.
    Ease of articulation has been a factor in the evolution of both the pronunciation and the grammar of many languages, including English and including in how it arrived at how you speak it now, which may be what you mean by "proper". Some phonemes, allophones, and combinations of them have died out. Many have been replaced by others. As for grammar, Old English had four main noun cases. Language use changes. (Although this doesn't answer Blanche's question.)

    Why do you think /θ/ (or perhaps /ð/ - you don't make it clear) requires more effort to make than any other sound? A voiced h, written /ɦ/ in the IPA, is used by some Australians when speaking English. Personally I can't even make this sound.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grimm's_law
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_English_phonology
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    Being reported that Gerisimov - one of the Russian top three with Shoigu and Putin - has been killed in an airstrike in Sevastopol.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    They just took a while before making him undergo the procedure, that’s all.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    Benpointer said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Why is th-fronting so common in England?

    Is it just a statement, in some regions, to affirm a working class background?

    What is th-fronting?
    I fink vat you've heard it before, even if you didn't know ve word for it

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th-fronting
  • PoulterPoulter Posts: 62
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Bloody hell, I've seen it all now. A Tory MP resigning on a matter of principle.
    Well I never.

    David Davis did.

    Also, Skidmore had already announced plans to leave Parliament at the next election. So basically he is jumping 6 months early.
    It would be hilarious if Skidmore stood again in his constituency as Davis did. I mean why not? Should be easy to sell green as the most important issue, right?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    Point of order: I don't think it's true to say "Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals." They are important in the production of some, but it is far from most.
    According to this from the NIH it is most. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2848100/#:~:text=Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals,, antihistamines, and antibacterial soaps.

    Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    If that's wrong, I'm happy to hear any alternative figures, but either way its a considerable proportion as far as I'm aware.
    I am wrong.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see Joey Barton is tripling down on his take on women commenting on men's footy.

    Now talking of people without brains...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited January 5
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Benpointer said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Why is th-fronting so common in England?

    Is it just a statement, in some regions, to affirm a working class background?

    What is th-fronting?
    I fink vat you've heard it before, even if you didn't know ve word for it

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th-fronting
    I can recall it from an advert for some potato snack in my .. er .. youff, thronted by a cartoon dragon, with fe slogan:

    "It's not even Five Pee, it's not even Four Pee, it's just Free Pee."

    I wonder what the snack was?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    rcs1000 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    Point of order: I don't think it's true to say "Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals." They are important in the production of some, but it is far from most.
    According to this from the NIH it is most. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2848100/#:~:text=Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals,, antihistamines, and antibacterial soaps.

    Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    If that's wrong, I'm happy to hear any alternative figures, but either way its a considerable proportion as far as I'm aware.
    I am wrong.
    😧.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    rcs1000 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    Point of order: I don't think it's true to say "Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals." They are important in the production of some, but it is far from most.
    I’d imagine almost all involve petrol chemicals at some point, even if only as the solvent for a reaction.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    MoonRabbit said:

    Foxy said:

    The poll from We Think

    They say it doesn’t rain but it pours. For Labour, there’s been a flood of support this week as they increase their lead in the polls by five to 22 points.

    🔴 Lab 47% (+4)
    🔵 Con 25% (-1)
    🟠 LD 9% (-2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (-1)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1743286769598996790?t=zTKLb2az_s6pQgyAB0zEzA&s=19

    Though worth noting that they did have a big swing to the Tories in their last poll, so looks more like reversion to mean.

    An early Christmas present for Sunak and the gang, as the Labour lead melts away like winter snow – dropping 7 pts from last week’s position giving them a pre-Christmas 14 point lead.
    🔴 Lab 41% (-5)
    🔵 Con 27% (+2)
    🟠 LD 12% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 9% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1738204898032865372?t=LCg2IGX5c7Wn6NNczbv5_A&s=19

    LD 12 to 9 = -2
    Ref -1 to 10 when previously 9?
    There was another We Think poll between the above two:

    28-30 Dec:

    43/26/11/11

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    A tale of two shops in Wellingborough ahead of the likely by-election: Peter Bone’s (right) and Labour’s (left) …👇

    image
    image
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1743222358758810050?s=20

    IF the by-election was a US special election, this graphic juxtaposition would be conveyed to likely (and many unlikely) voters, via campaign mailing(s), cable TV ads, web ads, txt msgs, unsocial media, candy-grams, pigeon post and any other available ways and means.
    Doesn't that Bone advert need planning permission?

    Please ...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    It's an odd one, to be sure.

    Whoever wins will get between hardly any time and no time at all as an MP.

    And Skidmore could have crossed the floor, or sat as an independent for a few months.

    He must be really pissed off with Rishi to do this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Labour held Kingswood from 1992 to 2010 so Labour will almost certainly gain the seat in the by election
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited January 5
    Clutch_Brompton said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see Joey Barton is tripling down on his take on women commenting on men's footy.

    Now talking of people without brains...
    The funny thing is a few years ago the likes of the Guardian, Indy and BBC were pumping him up as some sort of footballing intelligential. A reader of philosophy, a regular at art galleries, he did Question Time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Stuartinromford said:

    It's an odd one, to be sure.

    Whoever wins will get between hardly any time and no time at all as an MP.

    And Skidmore could have crossed the floor, or sat as an independent for a few months.

    He must be really pissed off with Rishi to do this.

    He is to vote against the whip next week so maybe understandble
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Poulter said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Bloody hell, I've seen it all now. A Tory MP resigning on a matter of principle.
    Well I never.

    David Davis did.

    Also, Skidmore had already announced plans to leave Parliament at the next election. So basically he is jumping 6 months early.
    It would be hilarious if Skidmore stood again in his constituency as Davis did. I mean why not? Should be easy to sell green as the most important issue, right?
    He has said he is to be non political going forward
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871
    MoonRabbit said:

    Foxy said:

    The poll from We Think

    They say it doesn’t rain but it pours. For Labour, there’s been a flood of support this week as they increase their lead in the polls by five to 22 points.

    🔴 Lab 47% (+4)
    🔵 Con 25% (-1)
    🟠 LD 9% (-2)
    ⚪ Ref 10% (-1)
    🟢 Green 5% (-1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1743286769598996790?t=zTKLb2az_s6pQgyAB0zEzA&s=19

    Though worth noting that they did have a big swing to the Tories in their last poll, so looks more like reversion to mean.

    An early Christmas present for Sunak and the gang, as the Labour lead melts away like winter snow – dropping 7 pts from last week’s position giving them a pre-Christmas 14 point lead.
    🔴 Lab 41% (-5)
    🔵 Con 27% (+2)
    🟠 LD 12% (+2)
    ⚪ Ref 9% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://twitter.com/wethinkpolling/status/1738204898032865372?t=LCg2IGX5c7Wn6NNczbv5_A&s=19

    LD 12 to 9 = -2
    Ref -1 to 10 when previously 9?
    We Think did a poll between Christmas and the New Year and the changes are against that poll, not the one from 21-22 December which looks a bit of an outlier.

    The changes from the 21-22 December poll are Labour +6, Conservative -2, LD -3, Reform +1, Green -1. The Labour/LD/Green vs Con/Reform numbers were 59-36 and are now 61-35 so not a huge change with movement within the blocs rather than across them (in Dec 2019 it was 48-47).

    The swing from Conservative to Labour is currently a whopping 17% which is well into landslide territory and would reduce the Conservative Parliamentary Party (before any tactical voting) to about 130 seats. The Con-LD swing is a more modest 8.5%.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    I don't know how to evaluate Chris Skidmore, never having noticed him.

    He has supported every PM on the rotisserie as far as I can see, was a Co-Author with Truss, Patel, Raab and Kwarteng of Britannia Unchained, and has jumped early having previously said he was standing down.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    I've not got Britannia Unchained to hand but After the Coalition was co-authored by:-
    • Kwasi Kwarteng
    • Priti Patel
    • Dominic Raab
    • Chris Skidmore
    • Elizabeth Truss
    So the terminus ad quem is 2011?

    If we can narrow it down any further, perhaps we can identify the exact date, and maybe the missing organ can be recovered?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    I do quite enjoy the prospect of Fang'em Debbonaire getting her teeth into opponents.

    Perhaps even in the Council area of Furrock, or Throme.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    It's an odd one, to be sure.

    Whoever wins will get between hardly any time and no time at all as an MP.

    And Skidmore could have crossed the floor, or sat as an independent for a few months.

    He must be really pissed off with Rishi to do this.

    He is to vote against the whip next week so maybe understandble
    He could have done that anyway... At this stage, what are the whips going to do?

    Calling a by-election maximises the exposure and pain for the PM. Probably even more than mere defection.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    rcs1000 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    Point of order: I don't think it's true to say "Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals." They are important in the production of some, but it is far from most.
    Point of order: "Point of order" should always be followed by "Lord copper". Otherwise it doesn't count. Lord Copper.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    edited January 5
    Nigelb said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    You sound a bit if a nutter from that comment.

    Our oil production makes bugger all difference to world prices.
    And substituting renewables more rapidly would benefit our balance of
    payments - and demonstrate that it’s feasible.

    A rare example of an MP with principles.
    Congratulations on spectacularly missing the point.

    Firstly claiming our oil production makes bugger all difference to world prices is as flawed an argument as saying our own emissions make bugger all impact on the climate. Yes we are a smaller player either way, but it is an impact however marginal.

    Secondly substituting renewables wherever possible is something I called for myself so is not contradictory to what I said. You simply reiterated what I already said. I already said we need to stop polluting and tackle climate change.

    Relying upon imports of oil and gas is not substituting renewables. Even as we transition to renewables we will still need petrochemicals for medicinal purposes, industrial purposes etc even as we no longer burn them for fuel.

    Cutting our imports is a better way to get the rest of the world to follow our example and transition to renewables rather than paying the text of the world for petrochemicals and expecting them to transition when energy is still a profitable sector for them.

    We should aim to be reaching zero net imports of oil and gas as part of our transition to net zero.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    What does th-fronting mean?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    Stuartinromford said:

    It's an odd one, to be sure.

    Whoever wins will get between hardly any time and no time at all as an MP.

    And Skidmore could have crossed the floor, or sat as an independent for a few months.

    He must be really pissed off with Rishi to do this.

    Or he has another job lined up and doesn't want to wait until the election to take it.

    Or he wants the free publicity.

    Or ...

    I'd have more respect if he'd done it prior to election year.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    MattW said:

    I do quite enjoy the prospect of Fang'em Debbonaire getting her teeth into opponents.

    Perhaps even in the Council area of Furrock, or Throme.

    BJO reckons at the next GE she's toast!
  • FffsFffs Posts: 69
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TimS said:

    Another by-election!

    https://x.com/blewettsam/status/1743327342624149701?s=46

    This time a resignation on a policy matter, rather than someone being naughty.

    Seems like a bit of a nutter from that letter, of course Britain needs to tackle climate change and we are doing, better than almost everyone else on the planet, but we also need energy in the transition and beyond and we should be seeking to eliminate our imports of oil and gas before we eliminate our own domestic industry.

    For one thing he gets what COP agreed wrong, COP never agreed to phase out the production of oil and gas, it agreed to phase out the burning of them for fuel. There will remain a role for oil and gas potentially for centuries to come in medicine, plastics and much, much more. Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals.

    His logic is also completely flawed and fails to understand fundamental economics. We cannot expect other countries to phase out fossil fuels when at the same time we continue to issue new licences or open new oil fields . . . wrong! That's precisely what we can and should do.

    If we shut down our own domestic production and rely upon imports then that makes other countries petrochemical industries more profitable and gives them less of an incentive to change.

    If we shut down our own imports of petrochemicals and rely upon domestic production, then that makes other countries petrochemical industries less profitable and gives them more of an incentive to change.
    Point of order: I don't think it's true to say "Most pharmaceuticals come from petrochemicals." They are important in the production of some, but it is far from most.
    Point of order: "Point of order" should always be followed by "Lord copper". Otherwise it doesn't count. Lord Copper.
    Up to a point, Luckyguy1983.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    Perfectly thine with it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Why is th-fronting so common in England?

    Is it just a statement, in some regions, to affirm a working class background?

    This guy probably knows:

    https://www.youtube.com/@DrGeoffLindsey
  • PoulterPoulter Posts: 62
    MarqueeMark said:

    Being reported that Gerisimov - one of the Russian top three with Shoigu and Putin - has been killed in an airstrike in Sevastopol.

    Nobody should jump to conclusions.

    Ukrainian Intelligence said last year he'd been killed near Kharkov:

    https://gur.gov.ua/content/pid-kharkovom-likvidovano-heneralmaiora-rosiiskoi-armii.html
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    Is there any longer any need for the BBC to provide "entertainment"*?

    The "free"** "entertainment" available now surely renders the Beeb's efforts irrelevant, certainly compared to their cost

    Should the BBC now just concentrate on informing and educating, and ignore the viewing numbers?

    * my entertainment includes PB. It doesn't include Strictly Come Baking

    ** "free" includes buying your attention with weird advertising
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited January 5
    Boy oh boy is Starmer ever lucky?
    If he could have picked a place for a by election surely this would be near the top?
    South of England.11.4% swing needed. Near Bristol. No LD strength.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    edited January 5
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    What does th-fronting mean?
    I fink vat it's vis

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th-fronting
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    It's an odd one, to be sure.

    Whoever wins will get between hardly any time and no time at all as an MP.

    And Skidmore could have crossed the floor, or sat as an independent for a few months.

    He must be really pissed off with Rishi to do this.

    Or he has another job lined up and doesn't want to wait until the election to take it.

    Or he wants the free publicity.

    Or ...

    I'd have more respect if he'd done it prior to election year.
    They didn't make the oil field policy decisions till quite recently.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    If I recall correctly, Skidmore expressed bitter disappointment when Sunak scaled back the Net Zero commitments on EVs, insulation etc. back in the autumn. It seems like the announcement to allow new oil/gas licences was the straw that broke the camel's back. Given that Skidmore led the Net Zero Review that featured the recommendations that have now been ditched, it's hardly surprising that he's had enough.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    dixiedean said:

    Boy oh boy is Starmer ever lucky?
    If he could have picked a place for a by election surely this would be near the top?
    South of England.11.4% swing needed. Near Bristol. No LD strength.

    Not necessarily. Skidmore's constituency will disappear at the general election so a by-election is unlikely to tempt any real high-flyers on the Labour (or any) side.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    BlancheLivermore said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    What does th-fronting mean?
    I fink vat it's vis

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th-fronting
    "Unlike the fronting of [θ] to [f], the fronting of [ð] to [v] usually does not occur word-initially (for example, while bathe can be pronounced as bave, that is rarely pronounced as *vat) although this was found in the speech of South-East London in a survey completed 1990-4." - Wikipedia.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Poulter said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Being reported that Gerisimov - one of the Russian top three with Shoigu and Putin - has been killed in an airstrike in Sevastopol.

    Nobody should jump to conclusions.

    Ukrainian Intelligence said last year he'd been killed near Kharkov:

    https://gur.gov.ua/content/pid-kharkovom-likvidovano-heneralmaiora-rosiiskoi-armii.html
    Indeed. It is a pleasant thought, though. I'm not religious, but it's nice to think of Gerasimov and Prigozhin continuing their argument as their feet boil on the coals of Hell.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MattW said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    A tale of two shops in Wellingborough ahead of the likely by-election: Peter Bone’s (right) and Labour’s (left) …👇

    image
    image
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1743222358758810050?s=20

    IF the by-election was a US special election, this graphic juxtaposition would be conveyed to likely (and many unlikely) voters, via campaign mailing(s), cable TV ads, web ads, txt msgs, unsocial media, candy-grams, pigeon post and any other available ways and means.
    Doesn't that Bone advert need planning permission?

    Please ...
    Your suggestion is ipso facto a gross violation of parliamentary privilege - a wanton attack upon the very foundations of democracy as buttressed by seven centuries (give or take) of History.

    EXCEPT of course Bone is exMP . . . so you get off on technicality . . .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    edited January 5
    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    They could have done but would be heading for less than 50 seats and maybe not even official opposition let alone holding power on her last polls as leader.

    Starmer may want more development like Truss but is not proposing to slash the additional income tax rate, scrap corporation tax rises and end the cap on bankers' bonuses as she and Kwarteng were pushing. If he was I doubt he would last long as Labour leader
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    BlancheLivermore said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    What does th-fronting mean?
    I fink vat it's vis

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th-fronting
    OK. My assumption is that anyone with a "working class" accent in a "good" job is probably far more capable than someone talking plummy RP in the same position, because they will have had to be to overcome the disgusting class prejudice that still disfigures this country. So I'd be glad to have a surgeon who talks like "vis".
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boy oh boy is Starmer ever lucky?
    If he could have picked a place for a by election surely this would be near the top?
    South of England.11.4% swing needed. Near Bristol. No LD strength.

    Not necessarily. Skidmore's constituency will disappear at the general election so a by-election is unlikely to tempt any real high-flyers on the Labour (or any) side.
    One chunk goes into the new Bristol NE, where Labour have a candidate in place. The other main successor is Somerset NE, currently the base of everyone's favourite Top Hat wearer.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    When I saw "Kingswood" I was reminded of the Kingswood in Surrey, on the Tattenham Corner line.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    X
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    What does th-fronting mean?
    I fink vat it's vis

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th-fronting
    OK. My assumption is that anyone with a "working class" accent in a "good" job is probably far more capable than someone talking plummy RP in the same position, because they will have had to be to overcome the disgusting class prejudice that still disfigures this country. So I'd be glad to have a surgeon who talks like "vis".
    I have to admit that it would scare me a bit, even vo I'd know vat ve surgeon/pilot was still fully qualified
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    They could have done but would be heading for less than 50 seats and maybe not even official opposition let alone holding power on her last polls as leader.

    Starmer may want more development like Truss but is not proposing to slash the additional income tax rate, scrap corporation tax rises and end the cap on bankers' bonuses as she and Kwarteng were pushing. If he was I doubt he would last long as Labour leader
    Isn't Starmer talking about re-enforcing the OBR, the exact opposite of what Truss did, part of what led her to lose all credibility with the markets.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    CBS - Pittsburgh dog eats $4,000 in cash

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meEK9WZophk
  • PoulterPoulter Posts: 62
    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    Rather a th-fronting surgeon than one who spoke with a lisp and kept asking the nurse to pass him the thick bowl.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    Johnson's latest for the Mail:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12930745/BORIS-JOHNSON-burn-Christmas-tree.html

    Moaning about not being able to burn 'wet' wood like his massive xmas tree. Government over-reach, woke madness, didn't happen in 1950s Somerset etc etc.


    Meanwhile - back in reality:

    This was introduced whilst Johnson was PM in 2021 by his old brexit mucker - Mikey Gove.



  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    Or Postie? :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited January 5
    rottenborough said:

    Johnson's latest for the Mail:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12930745/BORIS-JOHNSON-burn-Christmas-tree.html

    Moaning about not being able to burn 'wet' wood like his massive xmas tree. Government over-reach, woke madness, didn't happen in 1950s Somerset etc etc.


    Meanwhile - back in reality:

    This was introduced whilst Johnson was PM in 2021 by his old brexit mucker - Mikey Gove.



    I don't know how much they are paying him, but he is phoning it in even more than when he did his Telegraph column. That's multiple times he has written such an article.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    They could have done but would be heading for less than 50 seats and maybe not even official opposition let alone holding power on her last polls as leader.

    Starmer may want more development like Truss but is not proposing to slash the additional income tax rate, scrap corporation tax rises and end the cap on bankers' bonuses as she and Kwarteng were pushing. If he was I doubt he would last long as Labour leader
    Spot on. Comparing Starmer's agenda with Truss's is fairly remarkable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    How would PBers feel about having a th-fronting surgeon or pilot?

    What does th-fronting mean?
    Failing to use your tongue when pronouncing either form of th (Voiced or voiceless).
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    ManchesterKurt said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    They could have done but would be heading for less than 50 seats and maybe not even official opposition let alone holding power on her last polls as leader.

    Starmer may want more development like Truss but is not proposing to slash the additional income tax rate, scrap corporation tax rises and end the cap on bankers' bonuses as she and Kwarteng were pushing. If he was I doubt he would last long as Labour leader
    Isn't Starmer talking about re-enforcing the OBR, the exact opposite of what Truss did, part of what led her to lose all credibility with the markets.
    Just to note that today's poll has the Cons holding less than 100 seats. No doubt an outlier and slightly better than under La Truss but its arguabe she would have performed that much of a 'dead cat bounce' herself!

    Mr Sunak has to aim for the by-elections to be on local election day doesn't he? Better to take (and try to distract from) one bad day than to suffer death by a thousand cuts.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    rottenborough said:

    Johnson's latest for the Mail:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12930745/BORIS-JOHNSON-burn-Christmas-tree.html

    Moaning about not being able to burn 'wet' wood like his massive xmas tree. Government over-reach, woke madness, didn't happen in 1950s Somerset etc etc.


    Meanwhile - back in reality:

    This was introduced whilst Johnson was PM in 2021 by his old brexit mucker - Mikey Gove.



    Well, he does say:
    "I was just going off to get the buzz saw when a distant bell clanked in my brain. I had read something somewhere about government action to stop the domestic burning of fresh wood.
    In fact — the clanking grew louder — I had a terrible feeling that it might have been during my time in office."
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,243
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    When I saw "Kingswood" I was reminded of the Kingswood in Surrey, on the Tattenham Corner line.

    It's also the junction between the Stratford and Grand Union canals in Warwickshire.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited January 5
    Chris said:

    rottenborough said:

    Johnson's latest for the Mail:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12930745/BORIS-JOHNSON-burn-Christmas-tree.html

    Moaning about not being able to burn 'wet' wood like his massive xmas tree. Government over-reach, woke madness, didn't happen in 1950s Somerset etc etc.


    Meanwhile - back in reality:

    This was introduced whilst Johnson was PM in 2021 by his old brexit mucker - Mikey Gove.



    Well, he does say:
    "I was just going off to get the buzz saw when a distant bell clanked in my brain. I had read something somewhere about government action to stop the domestic burning of fresh wood.
    In fact — the clanking grew louder — I had a terrible feeling that it might have been during my time in office."
    He writes that like he was only ever a very junior minister at an irrelevant department, not the actual bloody Prime Minster.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    edited January 5
    Chris said:

    rottenborough said:

    Johnson's latest for the Mail:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12930745/BORIS-JOHNSON-burn-Christmas-tree.html

    Moaning about not being able to burn 'wet' wood like his massive xmas tree. Government over-reach, woke madness, didn't happen in 1950s Somerset etc etc.


    Meanwhile - back in reality:

    This was introduced whilst Johnson was PM in 2021 by his old brexit mucker - Mikey Gove.



    Well, he does say:
    "I was just going off to get the buzz saw when a distant bell clanked in my brain. I had read something somewhere about government action to stop the domestic burning of fresh wood.
    In fact — the clanking grew louder — I had a terrible feeling that it might have been during my time in office."
    There's a whole book in that.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    If Starmer was wearing a blue rosette it wouldn't be. We are at that stage of the tragedy - just as in 1978, 1996 or 2009
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    Clutch_Brompton said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    They could have done but would be heading for less than 50 seats and maybe not even official opposition let alone holding power on her last polls as leader.

    Starmer may want more development like Truss but is not proposing to slash the additional income tax rate, scrap corporation tax rises and end the cap on bankers' bonuses as she and Kwarteng were pushing. If he was I doubt he would last long as Labour leader
    Isn't Starmer talking about re-enforcing the OBR, the exact opposite of what Truss did, part of what led her to lose all credibility with the markets.
    Just to note that today's poll has the Cons holding less than 100 seats. No doubt an outlier and slightly better than under La Truss but its arguabe she would have performed that much of a 'dead cat bounce' herself!

    Mr Sunak has to aim for the by-elections to be on local election day doesn't he? Better to take (and try to distract from) one bad day than to suffer death by a thousand cuts.
    Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

    Condemned prisoners don't ask for their execution to be brought forward.

    The election will be as late as Sunak can get away with. If he thinks he can get away with January 2025, it'd be then, but even he won't be able to push it that late so October is more realistic.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rottenborough said:

    Johnson's latest for the Mail:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12930745/BORIS-JOHNSON-burn-Christmas-tree.html

    Moaning about not being able to burn 'wet' wood like his massive xmas tree. Government over-reach, woke madness, didn't happen in 1950s Somerset etc etc.


    Meanwhile - back in reality:

    This was introduced whilst Johnson was PM in 2021 by his old brexit mucker - Mikey Gove.



    How do you say that in Latin? Want to make sure BoJo gets your message!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited January 5
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Clutch_Brompton said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    They could have done but would be heading for less than 50 seats and maybe not even official opposition let alone holding power on her last polls as leader.

    Starmer may want more development like Truss but is not proposing to slash the additional income tax rate, scrap corporation tax rises and end the cap on bankers' bonuses as she and Kwarteng were pushing. If he was I doubt he would last long as Labour leader
    Isn't Starmer talking about re-enforcing the OBR, the exact opposite of what Truss did, part of what led her to lose all credibility with the markets.
    Just to note that today's poll has the Cons holding less than 100 seats. No doubt an outlier and slightly better than under La Truss but its arguabe she would have performed that much of a 'dead cat bounce' herself!

    Mr Sunak has to aim for the by-elections to be on local election day doesn't he? Better to take (and try to distract from) one bad day than to suffer death by a thousand cuts.
    Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

    Condemned prisoners don't ask for their execution to be brought forward.

    The election will be as late as Sunak can get away with. If he thinks he can get away with January 2025, it'd be then, but even he won't be able to push it that late so October is more realistic.
    This was obviously what the fixed term parliament act was supposed to solve, so we all knew when it would be, plans could be made by politicians, business, etc. But we found that wasn't worth the paper was written on.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Clutch_Brompton said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    They could have done but would be heading for less than 50 seats and maybe not even official opposition let alone holding power on her last polls as leader.

    Starmer may want more development like Truss but is not proposing to slash the additional income tax rate, scrap corporation tax rises and end the cap on bankers' bonuses as she and Kwarteng were pushing. If he was I doubt he would last long as Labour leader
    Isn't Starmer talking about re-enforcing the OBR, the exact opposite of what Truss did, part of what led her to lose all credibility with the markets.
    Just to note that today's poll has the Cons holding less than 100 seats. No doubt an outlier and slightly better than under La Truss but its arguabe she would have performed that much of a 'dead cat bounce' herself!

    Mr Sunak has to aim for the by-elections to be on local election day doesn't he? Better to take (and try to distract from) one bad day than to suffer death by a thousand cuts.
    Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

    Condemned prisoners don't ask for their execution to be brought forward.

    The election will be as late as Sunak can get away with. If he thinks he can get away with January 2025, it'd be then, but even he won't be able to push it that late so October is more realistic.
    This was obviously what the fixed term parliament act was supposed to solve, so we all knew when it would be, plans could be made by politicians, business, etc. But we found that wasn't worth the paper was written on.
    Quite right too.

    If Parliament is no longer capable of doing its business, then that Parliament should be dissolved. As happened to the 2017-19 Parliament, imagine if that farce hadn't been terminated?

    What we have now is a different matter, a fag end dying government waiting to be put out of its misery - but that happens under fixed term Parliaments too.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,243
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Clutch_Brompton said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris Skidmore wrote a book about the death of Amy Robsart.

    Does anyone know whether his departure from the HoC will leave no Tory MP in the chamber with a brain?

    Oh, sorry - just read that he supported Truss for the leadership. His brain must have dropped out 2010x2022.
    OK, an eccentric with principles.
    The Tories should have stuck with Truss, her team and her agenda. It only became an issue becuase Sunak loving MPs rebelled against her Instantly.

    Starmer is saying growth growth growth and build on green belts in exactly the same way, yet it’s popular when he says it?
    They could have done but would be heading for less than 50 seats and maybe not even official opposition let alone holding power on her last polls as leader.

    Starmer may want more development like Truss but is not proposing to slash the additional income tax rate, scrap corporation tax rises and end the cap on bankers' bonuses as she and Kwarteng were pushing. If he was I doubt he would last long as Labour leader
    Isn't Starmer talking about re-enforcing the OBR, the exact opposite of what Truss did, part of what led her to lose all credibility with the markets.
    Just to note that today's poll has the Cons holding less than 100 seats. No doubt an outlier and slightly better than under La Truss but its arguabe she would have performed that much of a 'dead cat bounce' herself!

    Mr Sunak has to aim for the by-elections to be on local election day doesn't he? Better to take (and try to distract from) one bad day than to suffer death by a thousand cuts.
    Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

    Condemned prisoners don't ask for their execution to be brought forward.

    The election will be as late as Sunak can get away with. If he thinks he can get away with January 2025, it'd be then, but even he won't be able to push it that late so October is more realistic.
    The full phrase is "Turkeys voting for an early Christmas".

    It was used by Jim Callaghan to describe the Liberals' support for the vote of no confidence against his government in 1979 with six months left on the parliamentary clock.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Johnson's latest for the Mail:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12930745/BORIS-JOHNSON-burn-Christmas-tree.html

    Moaning about not being able to burn 'wet' wood like his massive xmas tree. Government over-reach, woke madness, didn't happen in 1950s Somerset etc etc.


    Meanwhile - back in reality:

    This was introduced whilst Johnson was PM in 2021 by his old brexit mucker - Mikey Gove.



    How do you say that in Latin? Want to make sure BoJo gets your message!
    "infectum lignum non uri"

    according to Google.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    Chris said:

    rottenborough said:

    Johnson's latest for the Mail:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-12930745/BORIS-JOHNSON-burn-Christmas-tree.html

    Moaning about not being able to burn 'wet' wood like his massive xmas tree. Government over-reach, woke madness, didn't happen in 1950s Somerset etc etc.


    Meanwhile - back in reality:

    This was introduced whilst Johnson was PM in 2021 by his old brexit mucker - Mikey Gove.



    Well, he does say:
    "I was just going off to get the buzz saw when a distant bell clanked in my brain. I had read something somewhere about government action to stop the domestic burning of fresh wood.
    In fact — the clanking grew louder — I had a terrible feeling that it might have been during my time in office."
    fair point.

This discussion has been closed.