I notice that the person from Sky is suggesting the same election date as me. My logic behind it is that lots of liberals in this country do and will get caught up in US politics so will pay less attention to the UK campaign and generally be less enthused to go out and vote on the day. I don't think it will be a huge effect but elections are all about fine margins.
Why will people into US politics be less enthused to go out and vote? I'd've thought that it would rile people up to go vote!
Yes.
In fact, the whole argument that holding UK GE24 at approx same time as US GE24 would be problematic, is gobbledygook.
Note that in Canada - USA's nearest & dearest neighbor - federal general elections have often been scheduled in proximity to POTUS elections south of the Great White North.
For example: 1972, 1988, 2000, 2008
Indeed, I can't understand why little old Britain holding its general election at the same time as the Americans is bad, but I may not follow the argument well enough.
Although I appreciate that a clash would prevent UK politico journos rinsing expenses en masse with a month or two stateside following the circus of the US presidential (the premier league of elections).
Ordinarily its not an issue. This time? If Trump is both the candidate and insurrection is threatened by *both sides*? More of an issue.
A contested riotous US election threatens the stability of the west. Which is why (reportedly) the UK senior civil service have told Sunak he can't have November.
Why? That would be for the US to sort out, as they managed to do in Jan 2021. The UK PM is hardly going to try and reverse the American revolution and the removal of British rule in the American colonies and King George III, send troops to DC and impose King Charles III as monarch of the US until they get their house in order is he!
Would be fun though if we did. It would probably be less chaotic than a Trump administration so may be a plan (only joking).
I notice that the person from Sky is suggesting the same election date as me. My logic behind it is that lots of liberals in this country do and will get caught up in US politics so will pay less attention to the UK campaign and generally be less enthused to go out and vote on the day. I don't think it will be a huge effect but elections are all about fine margins.
Why will people into US politics be less enthused to go out and vote? I'd've thought that it would rile people up to go vote!
Yes.
In fact, the whole argument that holding UK GE24 at approx same time as US GE24 would be problematic, is gobbledygook.
Note that in Canada - USA's nearest & dearest neighbor - federal general elections have often been scheduled in proximity to POTUS elections south of the Great White North.
For example: 1972, 1988, 2000, 2008
Indeed, I can't understand why little old Britain holding its general election at the same time as the Americans is bad, but I may not follow the argument well enough.
Although I appreciate that a clash would prevent UK politico journos rinsing expenses en masse with a month or two stateside following the circus of the US presidential (the premier league of elections).
Ordinarily its not an issue. This time? If Trump is both the candidate and insurrection is threatened by *both sides*? More of an issue.
A contested riotous US election threatens the stability of the west. Which is why (reportedly) the UK senior civil service have told Sunak he can't have November.
Smells like absolute BS to me.
Firstly, civil servants cannot "tell" Sunak he "can't" have an election in November. They can advise and he can tell them he's listened carefully to their advice and decided not to follow it.
Secondly, the practical risk this winter is less than last time as Trump is not in office. That isn't to say he and his supporters wouldn't be extremely difficult and even violent if he lost, but the risk associated with that when he is NOT in the White House and is NOT the Commander in Chief is simply less.
The risk of Biden contesting (other than in the Gore sense of seeking a recount in whichever state) is extremely low. And, like Gore, if the legal decision was against him, he'd go on TV, say, "I phoned the new President at Mar a Lago today to congratulate him, and will work with President Eisenhower on a smooth transition" (yes, he'll say Eisenhower - that's just Sleepy Joe for you). For Biden to repeat Trump's approach is just the antithesis of everything we know about Biden from an extremely long career.
Thirdly, if this does play out badly in the US in November, the UK Government is relatively unimportant. I'm not talking Britain down here - we're a reasonably important country that is on the Security Council and so on. But it'll play out, at least in the weeks between election and inauguration, primarily in the US itself. In the rest of the world, there is no question who the Chancellor of Germany, the President of France, the President of Brazil, the PM of Australia etc are. The UK holding an election is not irrelevant but nor is it very important.
Finally, UK elections resolve pretty quickly and the civil service is permanent allowing all the usual communication and work to continue. Suppose the election was 14th November, whether Sunak or Starmer wins, they'll very likely be in the briefing room on the Friday with all the relevant officials having been kept aware of developments between US election day and General Election day.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
FPT: Since you were discussing diets, I'll mention one with a remarkable record of success:
Some years ago, I learned that Alabama gave its sheriffs fixed amounts per day for each inmate in the county jails. If the sheriff was efficient in feeding the prisoners, he was allowed to keep any money he saved out of those amounts. Not surprisingly, some inmates lost signficant amounts of weight, even during short stays in the jails. (As I recall, as much as two stones, or more.)
It occurred to me that -- as desperate as some people are to lose weight -- an entrepreneur might be able to learn from this experience. and market Alabama Jailhouse diets.
(For the record: I believe they changed the system in Alabama, soon after the stories about the abuse came out.)
There have been a number of studies showing very strong links between prison diets and recidivism rates.
Basically, if you feed people relatively well, it's much easier to get them to change other habits.
Sadly, this costs money, so prison diets are usually appalling.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
FPT: Since you were discussing diets, I'll mention one with a remarkable record of success:
Some years ago, I learned that Alabama gave its sheriffs fixed amounts per day for each inmate in the county jails. If the sheriff was efficient in feeding the prisoners, he was allowed to keep any money he saved out of those amounts. Not surprisingly, some inmates lost signficant amounts of weight, even during short stays in the jails. (As I recall, as much as two stones, or more.)
It occurred to me that -- as desperate as some people are to lose weight -- an entrepreneur might be able to learn from this experience. and market Alabama Jailhouse diets.
(For the record: I believe they changed the system in Alabama, soon after the stories about the abuse came out.)
There have been a number of studies showing very strong links between prison diets and recidivism rates.
Basically, if you feed people relatively well, it's much easier to get them to change other habits.
Sadly, this costs money, so prison diets are usually appalling.
There's a difference between losing weight and outright malnutrition, too. Though given how batshit crazy many diets are outside gaol, maybe that doesn't matter.
Sam Coates of Sky speculating it will be the 14th November and after the US election
It will be in September partly because of the US election. This timing works best to reduce the size of the Tory defeat.
That means an announcement in July / August with campaigning through the summer holidays.
It doesn’t work which is why November / December seems more plausible.
You eventually end up back in May because the other options are insane
Announcement shortly after Olympics end/towards the end of August, using the tactic of surprise and building on the momentum of summer, hols, Euros, Olympics, less attention on politics.
Constraint there is the newish rule that election campaigns have to be 25 working days long. (In the old days, it was only 17). So even the first Thursday in October means calling the election in late August. Similarly, if you want to avoid campaign contamination by the Commonwealth summit and the US elections, you end up with a mid December election date.
Which is what I'm reckoning on, almost as a default. The sizzle will have faded from the tax cuts, more people will be paying more for their mortgages and some part of the public sector will have fallen over. Oh, and there's a real risk that Rwanda will have had to be put into operation and shown to be a nasty farce.
But if there isn't a winning election date before then, it's when the Grim Reaper finally reaps, unless the Conservatives really have a death wish.
Good points. This is all guesswork, but...I think Rishi will want to avoid the 'surprise test' or 'last biscuit' paradox which I feel he hits if he leaves it to December - no surprise because he has left it too late to have any agency over the matter. October and November are difficult because of the matters often mentioned, while, if he were lucky, September would be at the end of an upward summer/sport/hols/no politics in the news bounce. I think at the moment this period would be the best chance of a result where Labour gets less than 326 seats and forms a NOM government, with the Tories losing but not demolished. So September (at current betting prices) is the value and my prediction.
September requires either an early July announcement or bringing MPs back in late July August to mop things up.
There is a reason why there has never been a September election - glancing at Wikipedia the earliest autumn ones seems to have been on October 8th and that was when 17 days was required not 25.
All good points. It seems to me that all the options are sub optimal, but that (tentatively) I think Rishi has mostly excluded up to the end of June. So that leaves July to December. I just think October -December, for reasons widely discussed, are awful, let as assume rightly that August is out. That leaves July and September. July has two weeks of Euros, closely followed by two weeks of July/August Olympics. September cashes in on the upbeat aspects of this summer stuff and is better than July - which is wall to wall sport.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Sam Coates of Sky speculating it will be the 14th November and after the US election
It will be in September partly because of the US election. This timing works best to reduce the size of the Tory defeat.
That means an announcement in July / August with campaigning through the summer holidays.
It doesn’t work which is why November / December seems more plausible.
You eventually end up back in May because the other options are insane
Announcement shortly after Olympics end/towards the end of August, using the tactic of surprise and building on the momentum of summer, hols, Euros, Olympics, less attention on politics.
Constraint there is the newish rule that election campaigns have to be 25 working days long. (In the old days, it was only 17). So even the first Thursday in October means calling the election in late August. Similarly, if you want to avoid campaign contamination by the Commonwealth summit and the US elections, you end up with a mid December election date.
Which is what I'm reckoning on, almost as a default. The sizzle will have faded from the tax cuts, more people will be paying more for their mortgages and some part of the public sector will have fallen over. Oh, and there's a real risk that Rwanda will have had to be put into operation and shown to be a nasty farce.
But if there isn't a winning election date before then, it's when the Grim Reaper finally reaps, unless the Conservatives really have a death wish.
Good points. This is all guesswork, but...I think Rishi will want to avoid the 'surprise test' or 'last biscuit' paradox which I feel he hits if he leaves it to December - no surprise because he has left it too late to have any agency over the matter. October and November are difficult because of the matters often mentioned, while, if he were lucky, September would be at the end of an upward summer/sport/hols/no politics in the news bounce. I think at the moment this period would be the best chance of a result where Labour gets less than 326 seats and forms a NOM government, with the Tories losing but not demolished. So September (at current betting prices) is the value and my prediction.
September requires either an early July announcement or bringing MPs back in late July August to mop things up.
There is a reason why there has never been a September election - glancing at Wikipedia the earliest autumn ones seems to have been on October 8th and that was when 17 days was required not 25.
All good points. It seems to me that all the options are sub optimal, but that (tentatively) I think Rishi has mostly excluded up to the end of June. So that leaves July to December. I just think October -December, for reasons widely discussed, are awful, let as assume rightly that August is out. That leaves July and September. July has two weeks of Euros, closely followed by two weeks of July/August Olympics. September cashes in on the upbeat aspects of this summer stuff and is better than July - which is wall to wall sport.
Sunak is facing an electoral Kobayashi Maru. Now all he needs to do is to take the James T Kirk option...
(For those who don't know - the Kobayashi Maru is a Star Trek 'impossible to win' scenario. Kirk broke in and changed the program before taking the test...)
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
It's a no win. When there is 8 feet of water in you living room one feels someone ought to make it go away and start again from a dry position. MPs can't deliver this. All they can do is offer spiritual uplift and locate blame. If you are Labour you can point out that Tory governments make it rain, but Tories can't really express that obvious truth.
The real story of Harvard is not Claudine Gay's firing but this:
You are ruled by thousands of people who are just as mediocre. Their power relies on tax advantages from the federal government, a DEI bureaucracy backed by Biden's Department of Justice, and the implicit consent of millions of Americans.
I say we withdraw that consent, and all the favors that come along with it.
To be frank, I don't think the legal profession comes out of the scandal very well, even though that is how the drama ends.
The sub-postmasters were prevented from seeking justice by the legal costs, which were exacerbated by the Post Office legal teams delaying tactics.
If there hadn't been a well organised group action with 500 sub postmasters then they could have got nowhere. Even then most of the award goes on legal fees. If there had only been a dozen then justice wouldn't have happened.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Whilst it'd be bloody inconvenient to arrange an audience with His Maj if he's in Brisbane, it's not prohibitively difficult.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
Rishi will want to hob nob at the Heads of Commonwealth conference with the King and other PMs, then fly back and call the election for 25 working days later.
28th Nov avoids both Remembrance events and the onslaught of Christmas.
Can Starmer really avoid saying anything for another 10 months ?
The potentially helpful thing for Starmer with this meme, which increasingly flies in the face of the volume of actual policy announcements made by Labour, is that it makes it harder for the Tory press to terrify cowering middle-England about the terrible things Starmer has planned. Because they are trying to pretend he doesn't have any policies. While simultaneously pretending the Tories actually have meaningful policies rather than simply a whole long list of election tactics masquerading as policy.
Neither Labour or the Tories have any meaningful policies.
Starmer had the chance to do something re housing but theres nothing to back it up.
In the end he'll wibble and do nothing.
A “doing nothing” government that just concentrated on competently getting on with the small stuff would be a vast improvement on the current shower of fools and imbeciles.
A "doing nothing" Government is not going to work given the challenges being posed at the u-bend stage of 150 years of national decline. Doing nothing (but very grown-uply) is effectively the Sunak sell. It's growingly acknowledged that there would have been considerably more merit in staying on the Truss growth rollercoaster, than sinking in to the Sunak slough of economic despond.
I thought you got rises as well as falls on a rollercoaster?
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
The counsellors of state can dissolve Parliament in the king’s absence.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
I put down 2 May for @Benpointer 's prediction competition and shall stick with it notwithstanding the indications to the contrary. Anything is possible.
I am doing the same. I can see how Sunak could build momentum with a short build to an election campaign straight after the budget.
If he goes longer Giveaway budget laughed apart or forces another market scare Tories get an utter demolition in the locals Banckbenchers go at him and each other all summer long Endless NHS crisis Big spike in small boats and deadlock on the Rwanda bill Recession / at best flat economy + tax rises make people feel poor King is away in October, threat of chaos in UK in November
I know that @MaxPB postulates he goes long so that economic benefits get into people's pockets. There are no economic benefits. The "tax cut" is a tax rise, and any giveaway budget in May threatens another market collapse.
Whilst I am sure he is frit, and no decision will be easier than a decision, the longer this goes on the worse the result. cf 1978 and 2007.
I'm giving the perspective of what the logic they're using is, not what I actually think. If it was me I would have gone for an election as soon as Truss was ousted.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Whilst it'd be bloody inconvenient to arrange an audience with His Maj if he's in Brisbane, it's not prohibitively difficult.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
In the modern era any reason to not do the audience by Zoom?
Though if Rishi goes to Samoa for the cocktail circuit, could do it while there and announce on his return.
I'm 6ft and 12st9lb, which is about right for my height. Maybe could be a few pounds less but not far off the right weight.
You can keep your weight under control quite easily by not eating shit and not eating too much of it either - without giving anything serious up.
I cook and eat real food, avoid anything orange, with one serious meal a day, maybe a coffee and crumpet for breakfast, and a lighter meal for supper, and enjoy a beer and glass of wine too. I also do about 30 minutes tempo walking a day.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Whilst it'd be bloody inconvenient to arrange an audience with His Maj if he's in Brisbane, it's not prohibitively difficult.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
Islamic state claim responsibility for Iran attacks
All of those journalists who were pointing the finger at Israel should apologise today. They won't because they're scum but we are where we are and anti-Semitism is simply tolerated by media companies and at worst encouraged at some places.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
The counsellors of state can dissolve Parliament in the king’s absence.
And that will go down really, really well with Charles. Not only would such an election overshadow the CHGM which he's chairing officially for the first time, but it means what could conceivably be the only election of his reign is called by William and Anne.
If Sunak goes for this he's even stupider than I thought, and given he's a friend of Cummings, appointed Williamson, Raab, Braverman and Zahawi to the cabinet and cancelled HS2 I would have sworn that was impossible.
Rishi will want to hob nob at the Heads of Commonwealth conference with the King and other PMs, then fly back and call the election for 25 working days later.
28th Nov avoids both Remembrance events and the onslaught of Christmas.
I think 5th or 12th December are very possible too.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
Never a good look to dissappear when large parts of the Constituency are flooded.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
Never a good look to dissappear when large parts of the Constituency are flooded.
Cameron got a lot of stick for it in 2007, and he had actually visited the constituency.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
The counsellors of state can dissolve Parliament in the king’s absence.
And that will go down really, really well with Charles. Not only would such an election overshadow the CHGM which he's chairing officially for the first time, but it means what could conceivably be the only election of his reign is called by William and Anne.
If Sunak goes for this he's even stupider than I thought, and given he's a friend of Cummings, appointed Williamson, Raab, Braverman and Zahawi to the cabinet and cancelled HS2 I would have sworn that was impossible.
It would be a final, crowning misstep to bring the curtain down on a very long five/fourteen years.
When it comes down to it, how many sensible election dates are there? Not many.
I'm 6ft and 12st9lb, which is about right for my height. Maybe could be a few pounds less but not far off the right weight.
You can keep your weight under control quite easily by not eating shit and not eating too much of it either - without giving anything serious up.
I cook and eat real food, avoid anything orange, with one serious meal a day, maybe a coffee and crumpet for breakfast, and a lighter meal for supper, and enjoy a beer and glass of wine too. I also do about 30 minutes tempo walking a day.
That's all it takes. Don't touch fast food.
We are all different. I am 6 ft 2. Most working days I don't eat anything till dinner time. It's not really a conscious decision; it's evolved that way. Days off I'll usually have brunch and dinner (so two meals) of course depending on who I'm with. I'm slim - we all have goals but broadly speaking I have the body I want. I wouldn't necessarily advise people to do it my way, it's just what I do.
Rishi will want to hob nob at the Heads of Commonwealth conference with the King and other PMs, then fly back and call the election for 25 working days later.
28th Nov avoids both Remembrance events and the onslaught of Christmas.
I think 5th or 12th December are very possible too.
Full 5-year term.
Given that you probably don’t want to kick off an election and then disappear for a week that makes December 12th the likely date
December 5th would be pushing it fine for an announcement immediately after returning from the conference
We are also underplaying the possibility that Richi is no longer PM when the election gets called
Speaking as someone who would devoutly desire this eventuality, the challenge is the lack of an obvious successor. There isn't really even a candidate of 'the right' or even of 'the ERG'. For me, and I know the vast majority of PBers will disagree, I think Jake Berry is the best candidate. I'm not even sure if he has leadership ambitions. My question is whether Suella will step aside and happily serve under anyone else. My answer is not sure. She probably thinks that as she's done more to make the right wing case against Sunak than anyone else, she deserves a crack at it.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
The counsellors of state can dissolve Parliament in the king’s absence.
And that will go down really, really well with Charles. Not only would such an election overshadow the CHGM which he's chairing officially for the first time, but it means what could conceivably be the only election of his reign is called by William and Anne.
If Sunak goes for this he's even stupider than I thought, and given he's a friend of Cummings, appointed Williamson, Raab, Braverman and Zahawi to the cabinet and cancelled HS2 I would have sworn that was impossible.
It would be a final, crowning misstep to bring the curtain down on a very long five/fourteen years.
When it comes down to it, how many sensible election dates are there? Not many.
That’s the thing - looking at an election in the autumn and I think December 12th seems the only plausible date.
I’m minded to go back to May 2nd regardless of comments today - it just requires a half decent budget reaction to justify going early
Rishi will want to hob nob at the Heads of Commonwealth conference with the King and other PMs, then fly back and call the election for 25 working days later.
28th Nov avoids both Remembrance events and the onslaught of Christmas.
I think 5th or 12th December are very possible too.
Full 5-year term.
Given that you probably don’t want to kick off an election and then disappear for a week that makes December 12th the likely date
December 5th would be pushing it fine for an announcement immediately after returning from the conference
And time for Labour's first Budget before Christmas.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Whilst it'd be bloody inconvenient to arrange an audience with His Maj if he's in Brisbane, it's not prohibitively difficult.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
Asquith and Edward VII, Biarritz, 1908.
It didn't involve any sort of election, not even a party election, as Asquith had been in effective charge of the government for almost two years already. So it was purely a formality.
I'm 6ft and 12st9lb, which is about right for my height. Maybe could be a few pounds less but not far off the right weight.
You can keep your weight under control quite easily by not eating shit and not eating too much of it either - without giving anything serious up.
I cook and eat real food, avoid anything orange, with one serious meal a day, maybe a coffee and crumpet for breakfast, and a lighter meal for supper, and enjoy a beer and glass of wine too. I also do about 30 minutes tempo walking a day.
That's all it takes. Don't touch fast food.
I think this is mostly right for most people. I'm the same height as you and slightly more than 50% heavier, and it's all because I have a history of eating embarrassingly large quantities of high-sugar foods as a poor mental health coping mechanism.
Since changing to a different medication I've got that under control and I've started to lose weight.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
I don't think that's anything near as insurmountable as you say.
Sunak can either visit briefly, taking the chance to look vaguely prime miinisterial whilst Starmer is wandering around a shopping centre in Dundee or wherever, or he can send Oliver Dowden, whose absence from the campaign trail (and even from his own breakfast table) won't be noticed or missed.
It's a biennial shindig with the PMs of Vanuatu, St Kitts & Nevis, and Australia for goodness sake. Nobody who matters.
There will probably be a story about King Chuckie having a minor strop, but nothing that will move votes.
Islamic state claim responsibility for Iran attacks
Iranians set to claim IS is backed by Israel...
Netanyahu is the mastermind behind Wahhabism.
The claims that Israel has backed Islamist groups (including IS) would certainly not be new ones. They have acknowledged funding certain rebel groups within Syria (not IS), and been accused of abetting IS. Fuelling such claims was the existence of an IS enclave on the Israeli/Syrian border for some time during the Syrian civil war. I am not alleging that such claims have merit, or that Israel has somehow caused the Iranian attacks - just that they're not as outlandish as you seem to believe.
I'm 6ft and 12st9lb, which is about right for my height. Maybe could be a few pounds less but not far off the right weight.
You can keep your weight under control quite easily by not eating shit and not eating too much of it either - without giving anything serious up.
I cook and eat real food, avoid anything orange, with one serious meal a day, maybe a coffee and crumpet for breakfast, and a lighter meal for supper, and enjoy a beer and glass of wine too. I also do about 30 minutes tempo walking a day.
That's all it takes. Don't touch fast food.
I think this is mostly right for most people. I'm the same height as you and slightly more than 50% heavier, and it's all because I have a history of eating embarrassingly large quantities of high-sugar foods as a poor mental health coping mechanism.
Since changing to a different medication I've got that under control and I've started to lose weight.
Great to hear.
Thing is: once you crack it you really crack it; I actively find McDonalds and Burger King disgusting now (which it is) and feel terrible 2-3 hours later now if I eat it. Dominos is no better.
My body now rejects crap, which stops me eating it.
Rishi will want to hob nob at the Heads of Commonwealth conference with the King and other PMs, then fly back and call the election for 25 working days later.
28th Nov avoids both Remembrance events and the onslaught of Christmas.
I think 5th or 12th December are very possible too.
Full 5-year term.
Given that you probably don’t want to kick off an election and then disappear for a week that makes December 12th the likely date
December 5th would be pushing it fine for an announcement immediately after returning from the conference
And time for Labour's first Budget before Christmas.
"This Budget is brought to you by the Grinch..."
Not if the election is on December 12th. You would be hard pressed to swear MPs in before Christmas let alone actually kick Parliament off
Sam Coates of Sky speculating it will be the 14th November and after the US election
It will be in September partly because of the US election. This timing works best to reduce the size of the Tory defeat.
That means an announcement in July / August with campaigning through the summer holidays.
It doesn’t work which is why November / December seems more plausible.
You eventually end up back in May because the other options are insane
Announcement shortly after Olympics end/towards the end of August, using the tactic of surprise and building on the momentum of summer, hols, Euros, Olympics, less attention on politics.
Constraint there is the newish rule that election campaigns have to be 25 working days long. (In the old days, it was only 17). So even the first Thursday in October means calling the election in late August. Similarly, if you want to avoid campaign contamination by the Commonwealth summit and the US elections, you end up with a mid December election date.
Which is what I'm reckoning on, almost as a default. The sizzle will have faded from the tax cuts, more people will be paying more for their mortgages and some part of the public sector will have fallen over. Oh, and there's a real risk that Rwanda will have had to be put into operation and shown to be a nasty farce.
But if there isn't a winning election date before then, it's when the Grim Reaper finally reaps, unless the Conservatives really have a death wish.
Good points. This is all guesswork, but...I think Rishi will want to avoid the 'surprise test' or 'last biscuit' paradox which I feel he hits if he leaves it to December - no surprise because he has left it too late to have any agency over the matter. October and November are difficult because of the matters often mentioned, while, if he were lucky, September would be at the end of an upward summer/sport/hols/no politics in the news bounce. I think at the moment this period would be the best chance of a result where Labour gets less than 326 seats and forms a NOM government, with the Tories losing but not demolished. So September (at current betting prices) is the value and my prediction.
September requires either an early July announcement or bringing MPs back in late July August to mop things up.
There is a reason why there has never been a September election - glancing at Wikipedia the earliest autumn ones seems to have been on October 8th and that was when 17 days was required not 25.
All good points. It seems to me that all the options are sub optimal, but that (tentatively) I think Rishi has mostly excluded up to the end of June. So that leaves July to December. I just think October -December, for reasons widely discussed, are awful, let as assume rightly that August is out. That leaves July and September. July has two weeks of Euros, closely followed by two weeks of July/August Olympics. September cashes in on the upbeat aspects of this summer stuff and is better than July - which is wall to wall sport.
Sunak is facing an electoral Kobayashi Maru. Now all he needs to do is to take the James T Kirk option...
(For those who don't know - the Kobayashi Maru is a Star Trek 'impossible to win' scenario. Kirk broke in and changed the program before taking the test...)
It's much easier to win the election if you can dictate what the main issue of the election is, and choose something favourable to you. But can Sunak reprogram the electorate to focus on his best electoral territory?
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
No, it's psychological. Whether it is Bush in 9/11. Johnson with the London riots, the Queen after Diana's death, or the (then) Prince after the South-West floods, the lesson is you turn up. Even if it's just grab a broom and push it, as long as it's sincere (tell the press to do one) people will get it.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
No, it's psychological. Whether it is Bush in 9/11. Johnson with the London riots, the Queen after Diana's death, or the (then) Prince after the South-West floods, the lesson is you turn up. Even if it's just grab a broom and push it, as long as it's sincere (tell the press to do one) people will get it.
I heard a story of a non-native English speaker pronouncing Loughborough 'Luga-Boruga' the other day and I can't read it without smiling now.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Whilst it'd be bloody inconvenient to arrange an audience with His Maj if he's in Brisbane, it's not prohibitively difficult.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
Asquith and Edward VII, Biarritz, 1908.
It didn't involve any sort of election, not even a party election, as Asquith had been in effective charge of the government for almost two years already. So it was purely a formality.
An election is more - complicated.
Why is it materially more complicated? It is, in fact, a formality. Even if the Palace insist on doing it in person, it's a bit of a faff to physically travel several thousand miles for a five minute natter with the Monarch, but you're vastly overstating the complexity of it all.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
No, it's psychological. Whether it is Bush in 9/11. Johnson with the London riots, the Queen after Diana's death, or the (then) Prince after the South-West floods, the lesson is you turn up. Even if it's just grab a broom and push it, as long as it's sincere (tell the press to do one) people will get it.
May at Grenfell was an example too. I don't doubt that she did, in fact, care about what happened and there was very little she could do in practice in the immediate aftermath. But, ultimately, she didn't do it because people would be nasty to her, and it looked dreadful.
In the case of Loughborough, it's lost anyway. The majority isn't huge and is lower still with boundary changes. I'd be very surprised to see it stay in the blue column, flood or not.
Islamic state claim responsibility for Iran attacks
Iranians set to claim IS is backed by Israel...
Netanyahu is the mastermind behind Wahhabism.
The claims that Israel has backed Islamist groups (including IS) would certainly not be new ones. They have acknowledged funding certain rebel groups within Syria (not IS), and been accused of abetting IS. Fuelling such claims was the existence of an IS enclave on the Israeli/Syrian border for some time during the Syrian civil war. I am not alleging that such claims have merit, or that Israel has somehow caused the Iranian attacks - just that they're not as outlandish as you seem to believe.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Whilst it'd be bloody inconvenient to arrange an audience with His Maj if he's in Brisbane, it's not prohibitively difficult.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
Asquith and Edward VII, Biarritz, 1908.
It didn't involve any sort of election, not even a party election, as Asquith had been in effective charge of the government for almost two years already. So it was purely a formality.
An election is more - complicated.
Why is it materially more complicated? It is, in fact, a formality. Even if the Palace insist on doing it in person, it's a bit of a faff to physically travel several thousand miles for a five minute natter with the Monarch, but you're vastly overstating the complexity of it all.
I think you're vastly underestimating the complexity of it all.
An election has to be called.
Then the wash up has to happen before prorogation.
Following this you have the formal dissolution.
Then you have the election and quite possibly an exchange of government.
This *could* all be done by counsellors of state but Charles will be furious if it is.
Plus it really would be a terrible look for Sunak to be on the other side of the world during the campaign (still more on Election Day) and as for forcing Starmer to fly across the world while forming a government, delaying everything for two solid days and leaving all government appointments and therefore business in limbo - well, I only have to put it that way.
When Asquith succeeded Campbell-Bannerman, he had already been the Prime Minister de facto since summer 1906 and 1908. It was already known what was likely to happen in advance and agreed that Asquith could convey Campbell-Bannerman's resignation and receive the commission at the same time. The only offices that changed as far as I can recall were Chancellor (to which Lloyd George was promoted to take Asquith's place) and President of the Board of Trade (which Churchill was promoted into to replace Lloyd George, which caused some embarrassment when he lost his seat in the resulting by-election).
If Sunak thinks it's simple, he's a fool. What gives me pause before saying it definitely won't happen is that he clearly is a fool.
To be frank, I don't think the legal profession comes out of the scandal very well, even though that is how the drama ends.
The sub-postmasters were prevented from seeking justice by the legal costs, which were exacerbated by the Post Office legal teams delaying tactics.
If there hadn't been a well organised group action with 500 sub postmasters then they could have got nowhere. Even then most of the award goes on legal fees. If there had only been a dozen then justice wouldn't have happened.
Some members of the legal profession behaved appallingly, during the course of the scandal. Dishonest lawyers are unfortunately, one of the features of these types of scandals. To my mind, perverting the course of justice, by collaborating in the prosecution of people you know to be innocent, is the worst offence that any lawyer can commit, worse even than stealing client funds.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Ah, thanks for the correction. Was not aware there was a nice jolly planned.
Having the election on Thursday October 10th would be particularly piquant for me, as it will be exactly 50 years to the day of the one held in 1974, which was also my first day at University (having voted for nice Mr Toby Jessell before leaving home). The Conservatives didn't do spectacularly well on that occasion, albeit they notably outperformed the exit poll. This year they would only dream of a similar outcome!
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Ah, thanks for the correction. Was not aware there was a nice jolly planned.
It’s not really a jolly, it’s something where we need to attend because Brexit rather upset the other markets we could sell stuff to
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Whilst it'd be bloody inconvenient to arrange an audience with His Maj if he's in Brisbane, it's not prohibitively difficult.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
Asquith and Edward VII, Biarritz, 1908.
It didn't involve any sort of election, not even a party election, as Asquith had been in effective charge of the government for almost two years already. So it was purely a formality.
An election is more - complicated.
Why is it materially more complicated? It is, in fact, a formality. Even if the Palace insist on doing it in person, it's a bit of a faff to physically travel several thousand miles for a five minute natter with the Monarch, but you're vastly overstating the complexity of it all.
I think you're vastly underestimating the complexity of it all.
An election has to be called.
Then the wash up has to happen before prorogation.
Following this you have the formal dissolution.
Then you have the election and quite possibly an exchange of government.
This *could* all be done by counsellors of state but Charles will be furious if it is.
Plus it really would be a terrible look for Sunak to be on the other side of the world during the campaign (still more on Election Day) and as for forcing Starmer to fly across the world while forming a government, delaying everything for two solid days and leaving all government appointments and therefore business in limbo - well, I only have to put it that way.
When Asquith succeeded Campbell-Bannerman, he had already been the Prime Minister de facto since summer 1906 and 1908. It was already known what was likely to happen in advance and agreed that Asquith could convey Campbell-Bannerman's resignation and receive the commission at the same time. The only offices that changed as far as I can recall were Chancellor (to which Lloyd George was promoted to take Asquith's place) and President of the Board of Trade (which Churchill was promoted into to replace Lloyd George, which caused some embarrassment when he lost his seat in the resulting by-election).
If Sunak thinks it's simple, he's a fool. What gives me pause before saying it definitely won't happen is that he clearly is a fool.
Firstly, you say yourself it could all be done by the Privy Council.
Secondly, King Chuckie being annoyed isn't going to shift votes. "PM and King in protocol spat" is utterly irrelevant stuff.
Thirdly, the practical issue of Starmer flying somewhere the day after an election, even if the Palace insist upon it, isn't Sunak's concern.
Fourthly, Sunak being out of the UK on state business for a short period in the campaign isn't a negative for him. It is really easy to play that as an internationally respected leader doing the business of the nation, the message being stick with someone who knows what he's doing in an uncertain world rather than a man with zero foreign policy experience.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
I'm just back from a drive across the island; it's mayhem out there. Water everywhere, flowing off the saturated fields.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
That was the likely date before we discovered that Charlies is on the other side of the world from mid October to some point in early November.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
Whilst it'd be bloody inconvenient to arrange an audience with His Maj if he's in Brisbane, it's not prohibitively difficult.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
Asquith and Edward VII, Biarritz, 1908.
It didn't involve any sort of election, not even a party election, as Asquith had been in effective charge of the government for almost two years already. So it was purely a formality.
An election is more - complicated.
Why is it materially more complicated? It is, in fact, a formality. Even if the Palace insist on doing it in person, it's a bit of a faff to physically travel several thousand miles for a five minute natter with the Monarch, but you're vastly overstating the complexity of it all.
I think you're vastly underestimating the complexity of it all.
An election has to be called.
Then the wash up has to happen before prorogation.
Following this you have the formal dissolution.
Then you have the election and quite possibly an exchange of government.
This *could* all be done by counsellors of state but Charles will be furious if it is.
Plus it really would be a terrible look for Sunak to be on the other side of the world during the campaign (still more on Election Day) and as for forcing Starmer to fly across the world while forming a government, delaying everything for two solid days and leaving all government appointments and therefore business in limbo - well, I only have to put it that way.
When Asquith succeeded Campbell-Bannerman, he had already been the Prime Minister de facto since summer 1906 and 1908. It was already known what was likely to happen in advance and agreed that Asquith could convey Campbell-Bannerman's resignation and receive the commission at the same time. The only offices that changed as far as I can recall were Chancellor (to which Lloyd George was promoted to take Asquith's place) and President of the Board of Trade (which Churchill was promoted into to replace Lloyd George, which caused some embarrassment when he lost his seat in the resulting by-election).
If Sunak thinks it's simple, he's a fool. What gives me pause before saying it definitely won't happen is that he clearly is a fool.
Which is the basis for my "the civil service will tell him no" comments.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Sunak's best strategy would be to goad Trump into making some crass comment about the UK having an Indian Prime Minster so that people vote for him as a way of sticking two fingers up to Trump.
So, lets assume 10th October is the last date for a pre-CHOGM election. That means Sunak has to announce c. Monday 2nd September to wrap parliament up that week - immediately after the summer recess. To stop his MPs doing what they do over the summer they will need to be told STFU which will leak out. We would know in July.
Or, Sunak gets back from Samoa and calls the election pretty much straight away. I assume a bit of post CHOGM business as well as everything else, which suggests 12th December (5th is a push).
I know a lot has been said about November dates. But with the King very overseas and CHOGM and the US election, there are too many variables and barriers there to make them a better option than either side.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Not sure billionaire PM, Rishi Sunak, is all that bothered about his post-election earning potential, which will be relatively limited anyway. He's likely to be a fairly short-lived PM without a great deal of star appeal. Not saying he won't get invited to conferences and get some nice speaker fees, but we're talking a contribution to heating the spare swimming pool here.
Calling the shindig in Samoa the "world stage" is also a stretch. It's a Commonwealth biennial meeting.
In any event, if he desperately wants a "swan song" he'd definitely not go for an election in mid-October as I'm assuming the invitation is to the British PM, not him personally (although didn't Truss rock up at something, somewhat to everyone's surprise, post-defenestration?)
As I say, doing it during a campaign (for a day or so) isn't a bad shout. Statesman vs Nobody spin. But the alternative is to send Dowden. It's entirely common for this sort of thing to happen in election campaigns across the world - South Korea has an election during the G20, and nobody notices. I think you're creating an issue that just doesn't exist.
I would suggest that the date of the general election will probably be the Thursday of the autumn half term holiday - in Norfolk (where I am) that would fall on Thursday 31st October - I'm assuming that the rest of the country is broadly on the same week. The weather will still be benign enough to campaign in and closing lots of schools on that day to become Polling Stations won't p*ss off too many parents as they'll already have child care in place given the kids weren't expected to be in school anyway. If half term is more commonly the week after though, the optics of having an election on or around Fireworks Night might be a little too tempting for cartoonists...
FPT: Since you were discussing diets, I'll mention one with a remarkable record of success:
Some years ago, I learned that Alabama gave its sheriffs fixed amounts per day for each inmate in the county jails. If the sheriff was efficient in feeding the prisoners, he was allowed to keep any money he saved out of those amounts. Not surprisingly, some inmates lost signficant amounts of weight, even during short stays in the jails. (As I recall, as much as two stones, or more.)
It occurred to me that -- as desperate as some people are to lose weight -- an entrepreneur might be able to learn from this experience. and market Alabama Jailhouse diets.
(For the record: I believe they changed the system in Alabama, soon after the stories about the abuse came out.)
There have been a number of studies showing very strong links between prison diets and recidivism rates.
Basically, if you feed people relatively well, it's much easier to get them to change other habits.
Sadly, this costs money, so prison diets are usually appalling.
Years ago, Wirt County, West Virginia, with smallest population in the state (under 5k) was famous (at least in Mountain State) for the quality of the food provided to prisoners at the county jail.
Which IIRC only had two cells. The cook was the sheriff's wife; the inmates got the same food that she cooked for her husband. (Though suspect that IF there was only one piece of pie left, he got it.)
On plus side, prisoners were seriously disinclined to make mischief, which might mean missing out on a home-cooked meal and getting bread and water instead.
On minus side, the lady's cuisine was definitely encouragement to chronic recidivism.
I would suggest that the date of the general election will probably be the Thursday of the autumn half term holiday - in Norfolk (where I am) that would fall on Thursday 31st October - I'm assuming that the rest of the country is broadly on the same week. The weather will still be benign enough to campaign in and closing lots of schools on that day to become Polling Stations won't p*ss off too many parents as they'll already have child care in place given the kids weren't expected to be in school anyway. If half term is more commonly the week after though, the optics of having an election on or around Fireworks Night might be a little too tempting for cartoonists...
and Halloween wouldn't?
He could of course avoid the difficulty by going for 31st November.
(For heaven's sake don't suggest this to Conservative Party's HQ. They may just do it.)
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
No, it's psychological. Whether it is Bush in 9/11. Johnson with the London riots, the Queen after Diana's death, or the (then) Prince after the South-West floods, the lesson is you turn up. Even if it's just grab a broom and push it, as long as it's sincere (tell the press to do one) people will get it.
I heard a story of a non-native English speaker pronouncing Loughborough 'Luga-Boruga' the other day and I can't read it without smiling now.
Are they sure it was a non-native speaker? "Luga-Boruga" is an old joke - I know English people who routinely call it that. See also "St. Reatham" etc.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Parliament tends to come back from Summer recess on the first Monday in September. This year, that's the second. For an election on October 10th, that's dissolution on September 5th. Is that tricky-but-doable, or not possible?
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Not sure billionaire PM, Rishi Sunak, is all that bothered about his post-election earning potential, which will be relatively limited anyway. He's likely to be a fairly short-lived PM without a great deal of star appeal. Not saying he won't get invited to conferences and get some nice speaker fees, but we're talking a contribution to heating the spare swimming pool here.
Calling the shindig in Samoa the "world stage" is also a stretch. It's a Commonwealth biennial meeting.
In any event, if he desperately wants a "swan song" he'd definitely not go for an election in mid-October as I'm assuming the invitation is to the British PM, not him personally (although didn't Truss rock up at something, somewhat to everyone's surprise, post-defenestration?)
As I say, doing it during a campaign (for a day or so) isn't a bad shout. Statesman vs Nobody spin. But the alternative is to send Dowden. It's entirely common for this sort of thing to happen in election campaigns across the world - South Korea has an election during the G20, and nobody notices. I think you're creating an issue that just doesn't exist.
OK, lets play the scenario. An election in that period means that Sunak has to fly to Aus/NZ, then fly back, then start the campaign, then fly to Samoa and back. Doesn't look good. And yes, he will need to fly to the King.
Remember how his mother insisted that Rees-Moog and friend fly to Balmoral to prorogue parliament? You think Chuck is going to not insist on personally granting the election? "Back again? Dear oh dear".
Yes, its possible. But its not *probable*. Not only will the Sir Humphreys be pointing out the perils of such a thing, his own side will observe that two round the world trips don't help his image, and sending Dowdy just promotes the "Britain not a world power" thing.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Parliament tends to come back from Summer recess on the first Monday in September. This year, that's the second. For an election on October 10th, that's dissolution on September 5th. Is that tricky-but-doable, or not possible?
It would leave the wash-up period as quite short, and may result in more legislation being lost than with a slightly longer period. To be frank, though, none of it is terribly important. It's a fag end government and the agenda isn't groundbreaking, signature stuff.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Parliament tends to come back from Summer recess on the first Monday in September. This year, that's the second. For an election on October 10th, that's dissolution on September 5th. Is that tricky-but-doable, or not possible?
Its tight. Basically bins anything not finished before summer recess. Which could be quite a lot of things.
This is my point. Once you go past 2nd May all of the dates are littered with issues. OK he could go in late June or early July, but that means take a pounding 2nd May *then* call an election. So hang on through the summer, hope your MPs don't shit themselves, then call an election. Wait for conference to announce - the King abroad, CHOGM and Trump. Wait til after CHOGM? Christmas.
After today's announcement Sunak has 2 options: 1 Continue plan A - build momentum, giveaway budget, surprise! 2nd May 2 Delay as long as possible and hope all of the extra negatives go away. 12th December.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
No, it's psychological. Whether it is Bush in 9/11. Johnson with the London riots, the Queen after Diana's death, or the (then) Prince after the South-West floods, the lesson is you turn up. Even if it's just grab a broom and push it, as long as it's sincere (tell the press to do one) people will get it.
I heard a story of a non-native English speaker pronouncing Loughborough 'Luga-Boruga' the other day and I can't read it without smiling now.
Are they sure it was a non-native speaker? "Luga-Boruga" is an old joke - I know English people who routinely call it that. See also "St. Reatham" etc.
As a boy I lived in a place called Acne. I was for many years puzzled by the road signs referring to Hackney, a place which was obviously nearby, but never visited.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Parliament tends to come back from Summer recess on the first Monday in September. This year, that's the second. For an election on October 10th, that's dissolution on September 5th. Is that tricky-but-doable, or not possible?
Its tight. Basically bins anything not finished before summer recess. Which could be quite a lot of things.
This is my point. Once you go past 2nd May all of the dates are littered with issues. OK he could go in late June or early July, but that means take a pounding 2nd May *then* call an election. So hang on through the summer, hope your MPs don't shit themselves, then call an election. Wait for conference to announce - the King abroad, CHOGM and Trump. Wait til after CHOGM? Christmas.
After today's announcement Sunak has 2 options: 1 Continue plan A - build momentum, giveaway budget, surprise! 2nd May 2 Delay as long as possible and hope all of the extra negatives go away. 12th December.
Actually the 5th works better if you follow the following logic
Rishi comes back from the Summit having told Charles that there will be an election announcing it almost as soon as the plane lands.
Solves the problem of Charles needing to be asked while he’s at the other end of the world
I must admit I find it quite amusing how the opposition are upset the GE is not going to be in May but that Sunak is playing it long with the12th December now being suggested as it is exactly 5 years from the last one
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Not sure billionaire PM, Rishi Sunak, is all that bothered about his post-election earning potential, which will be relatively limited anyway. He's likely to be a fairly short-lived PM without a great deal of star appeal. Not saying he won't get invited to conferences and get some nice speaker fees, but we're talking a contribution to heating the spare swimming pool here.
Calling the shindig in Samoa the "world stage" is also a stretch. It's a Commonwealth biennial meeting.
In any event, if he desperately wants a "swan song" he'd definitely not go for an election in mid-October as I'm assuming the invitation is to the British PM, not him personally (although didn't Truss rock up at something, somewhat to everyone's surprise, post-defenestration?)
As I say, doing it during a campaign (for a day or so) isn't a bad shout. Statesman vs Nobody spin. But the alternative is to send Dowden. It's entirely common for this sort of thing to happen in election campaigns across the world - South Korea has an election during the G20, and nobody notices. I think you're creating an issue that just doesn't exist.
OK, lets play the scenario. An election in that period means that Sunak has to fly to Aus/NZ, then fly back, then start the campaign, then fly to Samoa and back. Doesn't look good. And yes, he will need to fly to the King.
Remember how his mother insisted that Rees-Moog and friend fly to Balmoral to prorogue parliament? You think Chuck is going to not insist on personally granting the election? "Back again? Dear oh dear".
Yes, its possible. But its not *probable*. Not only will the Sir Humphreys be pointing out the perils of such a thing, his own side will observe that two round the world trips don't help his image, and sending Dowdy just promotes the "Britain not a world power" thing.
Again, I simply cannot see why you think of this as a particularly big issue. If the King insists on meeting in person in Australia, that's just what happens. It's a bit of a ball-ache for Sunak personally, but it isn't shifting votes. Those first couple of days are, in any event, slow - there is Parliamentary wash-up to do, campaign teams are busy organising things (not the party leader personally). So Starmer visits a fish market in Dunfermline and a primary school in Knutsford whilst Sunak is in the air - big deal.
In terms of sending Dowden if Sunak would rather give Samoa a miss... it's the biennial Commonwealth meeting, for goodness sake. Maybe you have fond memories of the 2022 meeting in Rwanda (ironically) but the whole affair is barely a news item.
I don't personally think he'll go that late. I still think May is on the table but, if not, it'll be early October - fire the gun as soon as the holiday season is over. But not because it's all a bit inconvenient due to the King's travel plans. I think you've got that aspect absurdly out of proportion.
Sam Coates of Sky speculating it will be the 14th November and after the US election
*rubbing hands*
Excellent, I can taste that champagne already.
14th November has Sunak announce the GE in his conference speech. Parliament meets 7th October, dissolution 10th October. CHOGM would be in the 2nd full week of campaigning.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Calling the shindig in Samoa the "world stage" is also a stretch. It's a Commonwealth biennial meeting.
It is the world stage, at least as far as KC3 is concerned. Its his first one, the Royals think the Commonwealth matters and its with a theme on a subject close to his heart.
I think Sunak will go himself, Johnson went to the last one in Rwanda. It would look bad not to go, but fine to call the election immediately afterwards.
With all the ins and outs discussed in this thread it does sort of imply that we're looking at December. I was convinced the election would be in May, but Sunak has said not and he is known for speaking the plain truth and never u-turning.
Actually hang on, yes of course it'll be December. Because I have a trip to Senegal booked then. Sod's law dictates I will of course be away for the big occasion.
EDIT: actually, looking at the dates, I'll be flying home on the 12th. Landing at LHR at 22:10, as pundits and politicians struggle to process their shock at the exit poll.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Not sure billionaire PM, Rishi Sunak, is all that bothered about his post-election earning potential, which will be relatively limited anyway. He's likely to be a fairly short-lived PM without a great deal of star appeal. Not saying he won't get invited to conferences and get some nice speaker fees, but we're talking a contribution to heating the spare swimming pool here.
Calling the shindig in Samoa the "world stage" is also a stretch. It's a Commonwealth biennial meeting.
In any event, if he desperately wants a "swan song" he'd definitely not go for an election in mid-October as I'm assuming the invitation is to the British PM, not him personally (although didn't Truss rock up at something, somewhat to everyone's surprise, post-defenestration?)
As I say, doing it during a campaign (for a day or so) isn't a bad shout. Statesman vs Nobody spin. But the alternative is to send Dowden. It's entirely common for this sort of thing to happen in election campaigns across the world - South Korea has an election during the G20, and nobody notices. I think you're creating an issue that just doesn't exist.
OK, lets play the scenario. An election in that period means that Sunak has to fly to Aus/NZ, then fly back, then start the campaign, then fly to Samoa and back. Doesn't look good. And yes, he will need to fly to the King.
Remember how his mother insisted that Rees-Moog and friend fly to Balmoral to prorogue parliament? You think Chuck is going to not insist on personally granting the election? "Back again? Dear oh dear".
Yes, its possible. But its not *probable*. Not only will the Sir Humphreys be pointing out the perils of such a thing, his own side will observe that two round the world trips don't help his image, and sending Dowdy just promotes the "Britain not a world power" thing.
Again, I simply cannot see why you think of this as a particularly big issue. If the King insists on meeting in person in Australia, that's just what happens. It's a bit of a ball-ache for Sunak personally, but it isn't shifting votes. Those first couple of days are, in any event, slow - there is Parliamentary wash-up to do, campaign teams are busy organising things (not the party leader personally). So Starmer visits a fish market in Dunfermline and a primary school in Knutsford whilst Sunak is in the air - big deal.
In terms of sending Dowden if Sunak would rather give Samoa a miss... it's the biennial Commonwealth meeting, for goodness sake. Maybe you have fond memories of the 2022 meeting in Rwanda (ironically) but the whole affair is barely a news item.
I don't personally think he'll go that late. I still think May is on the table but, if not, it'll be early October - fire the gun as soon as the holiday season is over. But not because it's all a bit inconvenient due to the King's travel plans. I think you've got that aspect absurdly out of proportion.
Perhaps. In an election campaign more than at any other time, perception matters. Multiple round the world trips in a cost of living election doesn't look good.
It isn't an absolute barrier. But its another complication.
“My working assumption is we'll have a general election in the second half of 2024 and in the meantime I've got lots that I want to get on with.”
"Lots". He will be beaten up very badly over what "lots" is when Rwanda isn't done and the NHS strike isn't over and the economy is still flat at best etc etc etc
I must admit I find it quite amusing how the opposition are upset the GE is not going to be in May but that Sunak is playing it long with the12th December now being suggested as it is exactly 5 years from the last one
I think the overwhelming majority of campaigners would *hate* another December election. In the North of Scotland it is extremely cold and the days are only about 8 hours long. In eleven general elections I have captioned in, it was, by far, the nastiest.
I must admit I find it quite amusing how the opposition are upset the GE is not going to be in May but that Sunak is playing it long with the12th December now being suggested as it is exactly 5 years from the last one
I rather think Labour being "upset" is artificial. Oppositions have to say the Nation demands an election now, and that an immediate change of government is desperately needed.
Will Starmer be sobbing into his korma tonight? I rather doubt it. Labour have rather bounced Sunak into (apparently though I'm not sure) ruling out May - which was probably the best of a bad selection of dates for him. They'll enjoy a stellar round of local elections, very tasty by-elections in Wellingborough and probably Blackpool, and month after month of crowing "running scared!" as Sunak fumbles about in a darkened room for a black cat that just isn't there.
A sort of betting post... The MP for Loughborough has been getting hammered over her response (or lack of) to the disastrous flooding in the town and surrounding villages. She's not been seen, isn't contactable on social media, not made any statements or done any interviews offering support or help. People are asking what's the point of her. Her majority is less than eight thousand.
An understandable human response, but is it reasonable? The good citizens of Loughborough sent her to be their representative in Westminster, not to be Westminster's representative in their constituency. Is she particularly adept as a sandbag filler or boat rower? Or are they just expecting her to stand around in a pair of wellies posing for photo opportunities? At least by doing nothing she keeps out of the way.
No, it's psychological. Whether it is Bush in 9/11. Johnson with the London riots, the Queen after Diana's death, or the (then) Prince after the South-West floods, the lesson is you turn up. Even if it's just grab a broom and push it, as long as it's sincere (tell the press to do one) people will get it.
I heard a story of a non-native English speaker pronouncing Loughborough 'Luga-Boruga' the other day and I can't read it without smiling now.
Are they sure it was a non-native speaker? "Luga-Boruga" is an old joke - I know English people who routinely call it that. See also "St. Reatham" etc.
As a boy I lived in a place called Acne. I was for many years puzzled by the road signs referring to Hackney, a place which was obviously nearby, but never visited.
To be honest, my view remains: a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
Sunak* will be in Samoa from the 21st to the 25th-ish of October.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Sunak won't want to even be out of the country when the GE campaign is on. Think about it. A swan song on the world stage is great for his post-election earnings potential. So either done and dusted by mid October or we're into Christmas season.
Calling the shindig in Samoa the "world stage" is also a stretch. It's a Commonwealth biennial meeting.
It is the world stage, at least as far as KC3 is concerned. Its his first one, the Royals think the Commonwealth matters and its with a theme on a subject close to his heart.
I think Sunak will go himself, Johnson went to the last one in Rwanda. It would look bad not to go, but fine to call the election immediately afterwards.
It was at the same time as polling day in the Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections, so you bloomin' bet Kigali looked an attractive distraction for Johnson!
Look, I don't doubt King Chuckie will be annoyed. But a spat over protocol with HMK isn't shifting votes, and doesn't matter in terms of the decision.
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Firstly, civil servants cannot "tell" Sunak he "can't" have an election in November. They can advise and he can tell them he's listened carefully to their advice and decided not to follow it.
Secondly, the practical risk this winter is less than last time as Trump is not in office. That isn't to say he and his supporters wouldn't be extremely difficult and even violent if he lost, but the risk associated with that when he is NOT in the White House and is NOT the Commander in Chief is simply less.
The risk of Biden contesting (other than in the Gore sense of seeking a recount in whichever state) is extremely low. And, like Gore, if the legal decision was against him, he'd go on TV, say, "I phoned the new President at Mar a Lago today to congratulate him, and will work with President Eisenhower on a smooth transition" (yes, he'll say Eisenhower - that's just Sleepy Joe for you). For Biden to repeat Trump's approach is just the antithesis of everything we know about Biden from an extremely long career.
Thirdly, if this does play out badly in the US in November, the UK Government is relatively unimportant. I'm not talking Britain down here - we're a reasonably important country that is on the Security Council and so on. But it'll play out, at least in the weeks between election and inauguration, primarily in the US itself. In the rest of the world, there is no question who the Chancellor of Germany, the President of France, the President of Brazil, the PM of Australia etc are. The UK holding an election is not irrelevant but nor is it very important.
Finally, UK elections resolve pretty quickly and the civil service is permanent allowing all the usual communication and work to continue. Suppose the election was 14th November, whether Sunak or Starmer wins, they'll very likely be in the briefing room on the Friday with all the relevant officials having been kept aware of developments between US election day and General Election day.
a) The Prime Minister will call the election for May if he gets a bounce from the early March budget
b) If there is no discernable bounce, he'll drag it out until the week before BST ends, so the Thursday before that is the 24th.
I reckon b) is most likely so; absent the suits warning against a Civil War in the US, the campaign begins mid-September. Indeed, the Prime Minister could announce the election just days before the Labour 2024 conference. Leaving them in a bit of a bind.
The polls will not get better between May and November...
Basically, if you feed people relatively well, it's much easier to get them to change other habits.
Sadly, this costs money, so prison diets are usually appalling.
That probably rules out an October election and may even rule out the ability to call an election (as I seem to think he needs to be informed of that as well).
(For those who don't know - the Kobayashi Maru is a Star Trek 'impossible to win' scenario. Kirk broke in and changed the program before taking the test...)
https://x.com/jdvance1/status/1742925449465135262
The real story of Harvard is not Claudine Gay's firing but this:
You are ruled by thousands of people who are just as mediocre. Their power relies on tax advantages from the federal government, a DEI bureaucracy backed by Biden's Department of Justice, and the implicit consent of millions of Americans.
I say we withdraw that consent, and all the favors that come along with it.
The sub-postmasters were prevented from seeking justice by the legal costs, which were exacerbated by the Post Office legal teams
delaying tactics.
If there hadn't been a well organised group action with 500 sub postmasters then they could have got nowhere. Even then most of the award goes on legal fees. If there had only been a dozen then justice wouldn't have happened.
Indeed, I seem to recall discussion at the time of Johnson and Truss treking up to Balmoral (when, as we now know, the Queen was in her final days) that the kissing of hands (or whatever) had happened in the south of France on one occasion (forget when and whom). The distances are further, but we do have aeroplanes.
Rishi will want to hob nob at the Heads of Commonwealth conference with the King and other PMs, then fly back and call the election for 25 working days later.
28th Nov avoids both Remembrance events and the onslaught of Christmas.
And so will Charles.
That rules out the 24th. Probably the 31st too.
*If he's still the PM, but if we've had an election beforehand the point is moot.
Though if Rishi goes to Samoa for the cocktail circuit, could do it while there and announce on his return.
You can keep your weight under control quite easily by not eating shit and not eating too much of it either - without giving anything serious up.
I cook and eat real food, avoid anything orange, with one serious meal a day, maybe a coffee and crumpet for breakfast, and a lighter meal for supper, and enjoy a beer and glass of wine too. I also do about 30 minutes tempo walking a day.
That's all it takes. Don't touch fast food.
If Sunak goes for this he's even stupider than I thought, and given he's a friend of Cummings, appointed Williamson, Raab, Braverman and Zahawi to the cabinet and cancelled HS2 I would have sworn that was impossible.
Full 5-year term.
When it comes down to it, how many sensible election dates are there? Not many.
December 5th would be pushing it fine for an announcement immediately after returning from the conference
I’m minded to go back to May 2nd regardless of comments today - it just requires a half decent budget reaction to justify going early
"This Budget is brought to you by the Grinch..."
It didn't involve any sort of election, not even a party election, as Asquith had been in effective charge of the government for almost two years already. So it was purely a formality.
An election is more - complicated.
Since changing to a different medication I've got that under control and I've started to lose weight.
Sunak can either visit briefly, taking the chance to look vaguely prime miinisterial whilst Starmer is wandering around a shopping centre in Dundee or wherever, or he can send Oliver Dowden, whose absence from the campaign trail (and even from his own breakfast table) won't be noticed or missed.
It's a biennial shindig with the PMs of Vanuatu, St Kitts & Nevis, and Australia for goodness sake. Nobody who matters.
There will probably be a story about King Chuckie having a minor strop, but nothing that will move votes.
Thing is: once you crack it you really crack it; I actively find McDonalds and Burger King disgusting now (which it is) and feel terrible 2-3 hours later now if I eat it. Dominos is no better.
My body now rejects crap, which stops me eating it.
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/foreign-embassy-congestion-charge-debt-to-tfl-tops-143-million-69007/
https://x.com/julianhjessop/status/1742880230505697613
In the case of Loughborough, it's lost anyway. The majority isn't huge and is lower still with boundary changes. I'd be very surprised to see it stay in the blue column, flood or not.
An election has to be called.
Then the wash up has to happen before prorogation.
Following this you have the formal dissolution.
Then you have the election and quite possibly an exchange of government.
This *could* all be done by counsellors of state but Charles will be furious if it is.
Plus it really would be a terrible look for Sunak to be on the other side of the world during the campaign (still more on Election Day) and as for forcing Starmer to fly across the world while forming a government, delaying everything for two solid days and leaving all government appointments and therefore business in limbo - well, I only have to put it that way.
When Asquith succeeded Campbell-Bannerman, he had already been the Prime Minister de facto since summer 1906 and 1908. It was already known what was likely to happen in advance and agreed that Asquith could convey Campbell-Bannerman's resignation and receive the commission at the same time. The only offices that changed as far as I can recall were Chancellor (to which Lloyd George was promoted to take Asquith's place) and President of the Board of Trade (which Churchill was promoted into to replace Lloyd George, which caused some embarrassment when he lost his seat in the resulting by-election).
If Sunak thinks it's simple, he's a fool. What gives me pause before saying it definitely won't happen is that he clearly is a fool.
Memories, memories.....
Secondly, King Chuckie being annoyed isn't going to shift votes. "PM and King in protocol spat" is utterly irrelevant stuff.
Thirdly, the practical issue of Starmer flying somewhere the day after an election, even if the Palace insist upon it, isn't Sunak's concern.
Fourthly, Sunak being out of the UK on state business for a short period in the campaign isn't a negative for him. It is really easy to play that as an internationally respected leader doing the business of the nation, the message being stick with someone who knows what he's doing in an uncertain world rather than a man with zero foreign policy experience.
Or, Sunak gets back from Samoa and calls the election pretty much straight away. I assume a bit of post CHOGM business as well as everything else, which suggests 12th December (5th is a push).
I know a lot has been said about November dates. But with the King very overseas and CHOGM and the US election, there are too many variables and barriers there to make them a better option than either side.
Calling the shindig in Samoa the "world stage" is also a stretch. It's a Commonwealth biennial meeting.
In any event, if he desperately wants a "swan song" he'd definitely not go for an election in mid-October as I'm assuming the invitation is to the British PM, not him personally (although didn't Truss rock up at something, somewhat to everyone's surprise, post-defenestration?)
As I say, doing it during a campaign (for a day or so) isn't a bad shout. Statesman vs Nobody spin. But the alternative is to send Dowden. It's entirely common for this sort of thing to happen in election campaigns across the world - South Korea has an election during the G20, and nobody notices. I think you're creating an issue that just doesn't exist.
Which IIRC only had two cells. The cook was the sheriff's wife; the inmates got the same food that she cooked for her husband. (Though suspect that IF there was only one piece of pie left, he got it.)
On plus side, prisoners were seriously disinclined to make mischief, which might mean missing out on a home-cooked meal and getting bread and water instead.
On minus side, the lady's cuisine was definitely encouragement to chronic recidivism.
(For heaven's sake don't suggest this to Conservative Party's HQ. They may just do it.)
.. no more Heroes any more!
Remember how his mother insisted that Rees-Moog and friend fly to Balmoral to prorogue parliament? You think Chuck is going to not insist on personally granting the election? "Back again? Dear oh dear".
Yes, its possible. But its not *probable*. Not only will the Sir Humphreys be pointing out the perils of such a thing, his own side will observe that two round the world trips don't help his image, and sending Dowdy just promotes the "Britain not a world power" thing.
This is my point. Once you go past 2nd May all of the dates are littered with issues. OK he could go in late June or early July, but that means take a pounding 2nd May *then* call an election. So hang on through the summer, hope your MPs don't shit themselves, then call an election. Wait for conference to announce - the King abroad, CHOGM and Trump. Wait til after CHOGM? Christmas.
After today's announcement Sunak has 2 options:
1 Continue plan A - build momentum, giveaway budget, surprise! 2nd May
2 Delay as long as possible and hope all of the extra negatives go away. 12th December.
Excellent, I can taste that champagne already.
Rishi comes back from the Summit having told Charles that there will be an election announcing it almost as soon as the plane lands.
Solves the problem of Charles needing to be asked while he’s at the other end of the world
Rishi Sunak has made a decision to wait, to see if anything turns up between now and November.
That seems very unlikely to me. And he's given free ammunition to Labour, Gordon-brown bottled it style.
In terms of sending Dowden if Sunak would rather give Samoa a miss... it's the biennial Commonwealth meeting, for goodness sake. Maybe you have fond memories of the 2022 meeting in Rwanda (ironically) but the whole affair is barely a news item.
I don't personally think he'll go that late. I still think May is on the table but, if not, it'll be early October - fire the gun as soon as the holiday season is over. But not because it's all a bit inconvenient due to the King's travel plans. I think you've got that aspect absurdly out of proportion.
I think Sunak will go himself, Johnson went to the last one in Rwanda. It would look bad not to go, but fine to call the election immediately afterwards.
Actually hang on, yes of course it'll be December. Because I have a trip to Senegal booked then. Sod's law dictates I will of course be away for the big occasion.
EDIT: actually, looking at the dates, I'll be flying home on the 12th. Landing at LHR at 22:10, as pundits and politicians struggle to process their shock at the exit poll.
It isn't an absolute barrier. But its another complication.
“My working assumption is we'll have a general election in the second half of 2024 and in the meantime I've got lots that I want to get on with.”
"Lots". He will be beaten up very badly over what "lots" is when Rwanda isn't done and the NHS strike isn't over and the economy is still flat at best etc etc etc
Will Starmer be sobbing into his korma tonight? I rather doubt it. Labour have rather bounced Sunak into (apparently though I'm not sure) ruling out May - which was probably the best of a bad selection of dates for him. They'll enjoy a stellar round of local elections, very tasty by-elections in Wellingborough and probably Blackpool, and month after month of crowing "running scared!" as Sunak fumbles about in a darkened room for a black cat that just isn't there.
Look, I don't doubt King Chuckie will be annoyed. But a spat over protocol with HMK isn't shifting votes, and doesn't matter in terms of the decision.