Home affairs – politicalbetting.com

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Home affairs – politicalbetting.com

Voting intention by housing tenure: own home with mortgage (Con lead -20)Con: 15%Lab: 35%Lib Dem: 7%Reform UK: 6%Green: 5%Other: 5%Don’t know: 17%Would not vote: 10%https://t.co/xvO9jUGk8z pic.twitter.com/FZbPEAX6Z7

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TheScreamingEagles

Private Frazer mode The Tories are doomed, homeowners begets Tory voters.

ydoethur

Is that what Hancock can have now he's left the office?

Nigelb

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

DavidL

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

I was a bit late to this thread...just had another look. One of the sexiest things I have ever seen in a film and they don't even take their clothes off.

DavidL

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Nigelb

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

Mexicanpete

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

It really isn't fair on Rishi is it?

DavidL

ydoethur said:

Is that what Hancock can have now he's left the office?

He'll never last half an hour.

SandyRentool

Obviously, on average those who own their home outright tend to be older than those with mortgages. So we are seeing a combination of age related voting intention and the impact of higher interest rates.

Nigelb

Nigelb said:

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

And while we're in Japan, Graveyard of the Fireflies.
I still tear up recalling that film.

Foxy

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

The truly awful thing for the Tories is that it is nearly neck and neck for Con and Lab amongst own outright, who must be either older or richer.

DecrepiterJohnL

Alex Batty: Police launch abduction investigation into disappearance of British teen
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67803339

That's timely. Six years after Alex disappeared. A week after he reappeared. So what is the point?

DavidL

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

It really isn't fair on Rishi is it?

We have already had reference to the Lion King. As Scar explains life isn't fair.

I never got to make whoopee with Michelle Pfeiffer for a start.

DavidL

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

The truly awful thing for the Tories is that it is nearly neck and neck for Con and Lab amongst own outright, who must be either older or richer.

You know, I am starting to think that they might lose after all.

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Alex Batty: Police launch abduction investigation into disappearance of British teen
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67803339

That's timely. Six years after Alex disappeared. A week after he reappeared. So what is the point?

To cover their arses?

DecrepiterJohnL

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Alex Batty: Police launch abduction investigation into disappearance of British teen
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67803339

That's timely. Six years after Alex disappeared. A week after he reappeared. So what is the point?

To cover their arses?

Free travel to foreign climes during our winter?

Barnesian

Nigelb said:

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

The Brothers Karamazov

Nigelb

SandyRentool said:

Obviously, on average those who own their home outright tend to be older than those with mortgages. So we are seeing a combination of age related voting intention and the impact of higher interest rates.

One of the reasons S Korea did so well economically is that both government and industry were absolutely brutal in avoiding responsibility for seniors.

During the period of highest growth, companies just let go anyone in their fifties and upward who wasn't a high flyer.
And there's a very strong cultural bias towards children, not the state, being responsible for the elderly.

Korea suffers OECD's highest old-age poverty rate
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.amp.asp?newsIdx=365400

SeaShantyIrish2

On Topic? . . . speaking of "home affairs" . . .

NYT ($) - Florida Sex Scandal Shakes Moms for Liberty, as Group’s Influence Wanes

The conservative group led the charge on the Covid-era education battles. But scandals and losses are threatening its power.

Moms for Liberty, a national right-wing advocacy group, was born in Florida as a response to Covid-19 school closures and mask mandates. But it quickly became just as well known for pushing policies branded as anti-L.G.B.T.Q. by opponents.

So when one of its founders, Bridget Ziegler, recently told the police that she and her husband, who is under criminal investigation for sexual assault, had a consensual sexual encounter with another woman, the perceived disconnect between her public stances and private life fueled intense pressure for her to resign from the Sarasota County School Board.

“Most of our community could not care less what you do in the privacy of your own home, but your hypocrisy takes center stage,” Sally Sells, a Sarasota resident and the mother of a fifth-grader, told Ms. Ziegler during a tense school board meeting this week. Ms. Ziegler, whose husband has denied wrongdoing, said little and did not resign. . . .

In November, the group announced that it had removed the chairwomen of two Kentucky chapters after they had posed in photos with members of the Proud Boys, a far-right group with a history of violence. That came several months after a chapter of Moms for Liberty in Indiana quoted Adolf Hitler in its inaugural newsletter. The year before, Ms. Ziegler publicly denied links to the Proud Boys after she had posed for a photo with a member of the group at her election night victory party.

The episodes have transformed the group’s image and alienated it from the voters it once claimed to represent. The group was at one time particularly strong in the suburbs of Northern Virginia, where education issues helped spur Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, to victory in the 2021 governor’s race. (This year, Mr. Youngkin failed in his high-profile attempt at a Republican takeover of the Virginia Statehouse.) . . .

Nigelb

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

The Brothers Karamazov

Hannah and her Sisters.

david_herdson

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

JosiasJessop

You know your employer hates you when they organise a three-hour meeting at 16.00 on the last Friday before Christmas...

Carnyx

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Interest rates would need to go down to about zero first before many mortgagers get such bargains as they had before, of course.

I do wonder what the results would have been if the poll had asked about savings, mind.

ydoethur

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

I think it most unlikely we will ever go back to mortgages being available at under 2% pa.

And if I'm honest I'll be quite worried if we do.

DavidL

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

DavidL

ydoethur said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

I think it most unlikely we will ever go back to mortgages being available at under 2% pa.

And if I'm honest I'll be quite worried if we do.

If we do we will be in the worst recession since the 1930s.

Nigelb

JosiasJessop said:

You know your employer hates you when they organise a three-hour meeting at 16.00 on the last Friday before Christmas...

Unless it's with them, and they really like you ?

londonpubman

ydoethur said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

I think it most unlikely we will ever go back to mortgages being available at under 2% pa.

And if I'm honest I'll be quite worried if we do.

Long term UK bank rate likely to be around 3% to 4%.

Foxy

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

Aren't 80% of mortgages on fixed rates now, for 2-5 years? In which case we are only just starting on interest rate rises for many households.

OnlyLivingBoy

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

The Brothers Karamazov

Hannah and her Sisters.

The Blues Brothers.

DavidL

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

Aren't 80% of mortgages on fixed rates now, for 2-5 years? In which case we are only just starting on interest rate rises for many households.

Yes, its completely changed around. FWIW and DYOR etc, I would be looking at the shorter end of any fix now because there is a reasonable chance that our flat lining economy will be being revived by lower base rates in 2 years time.

JosiasJessop

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

The Brothers Karamazov

Hannah and her Sisters.

The Blues Brothers.

Super Mario Bros (which we've just watched. Again...)

JosiasJessop

We have a houseful of toys, and the little 'un and his two friends are fighting over... bubble wrap.

Apparently it is 'SATISFACTION!'

Foxy

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

The Brothers Karamazov

Hannah and her Sisters.

The Blues Brothers.

"Spare" is largely about sibling relationships.

londonpubman

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

Aren't 80% of mortgages on fixed rates now, for 2-5 years? In which case we are only just starting on interest rate rises for many households.

Yes, its completely changed around. FWIW and DYOR etc, I would be looking at the shorter end of any fix now because there is a reasonable chance that our flat lining economy will be being revived by lower base rates in 2 years time.

Artificially low interest rates for many years have been a cause of recent high inflation globally. Central banks will be nervous of lowering rates quickly even given an apparent fall in inflation. But 3% rates in 2% inflation environment appear reasonable over the long term.

david_herdson

Carnyx said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Interest rates would need to go down to about zero first before many mortgagers get such bargains as they had before, of course.
[snip]

True. By the autumn, 2 year rates may be below where they were two years earlier, which was the Truss spike, but it'll only affect those coming off deals at that point - and even then, for too short a period for it to make any practical feel-good impact.

EPG

Age correlation.

ydoethur

JosiasJessop said:

You know your employer hates you when they organise a three-hour meeting at 16.00 on the last Friday before Christmas...

My employer did that to me this year.

I suppose I did have the option of saying 'no' though.

Jim_Miller

Off topic: Since SSI2 is here, I'll repeat my request that he give us an account of the recent Seattle elections. (I think the results are instructive, and provide hope for democracy, even in places that elect a Trotskyite.)

My brief summary: A failed leftist majority on the Seattle City Council has been -- apparently -- replaced by a majority that lives in the real world. Mostly.

(My own election was disappointing, but not surprising, and not particularly instructive.)

Daveyboy1961

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

MightyAlex

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

kyf_100

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

6% on a mortgage 3x your annual income is a bargain. 6% on a mortgage 8-9x your annual income is murderous.

For the most part house prices have functioned as a result of disposable income, tracking closely to 30% of disposable income throughout most of the years 1983-2023.

We are now seeing a disconnect - affordability plummeting without a corresponding drop in prices, due to extreme scarcity created by decades of artificially restricted supply and unrestricted immigration.

For a lot of people, home ownership is a millstone around their neck, rather than the liberation and freedom it used to represent.

The only thing in its favour is that renting is even worse.

But that will not win the Tories votes...

JosiasJessop

Nigelb said:

JosiasJessop said:

You know your employer hates you when they organise a three-hour meeting at 16.00 on the last Friday before Christmas...

Unless it's with them, and they really like you ?

This is a teleconference...

We one thought of starting a new website: hornyRFengineers.com...

A rather niche topic.

DougSeal

Hitler partly to blame for 2021 blast damage, Court of Appeal confirms

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/hitler-partly-to-blame-for-2021-blast-damage-court-of-appeal-confirms/5118220.article

TimS

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

kyf_100

MightyAlex said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

https://www.avtrinity.com/news/house-prices-vs-income-how-affordable-are-uk-homes

The average house price in 1993 was 3.1x the average salary, in 2023 it's 8.5x.

But hey, let's focus on how the young never had it so good, while laughing in buying a house in 1990.

DougSeal

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

On Fools and Horses

Gardenwalker

My new rates start on Jan 1, gulp.
In my case I’ll be paying several thousand pounds more a month.

I see you can now get 5-years below 4%, but I think the risk of deflation is real, and I’m just going to hold on to a floating rate and see where things go by summer.

williamglenn

DougSeal said:

Hitler partly to blame for 2021 blast damage, Court of Appeal confirms

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/hitler-partly-to-blame-for-2021-blast-damage-court-of-appeal-confirms/5118220.article

A chance for Sunak to intervene and demand reparations from Germany.

Carnyx

DougSeal said:

Hitler partly to blame for 2021 blast damage, Court of Appeal confirms

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/hitler-partly-to-blame-for-2021-blast-damage-court-of-appeal-confirms/5118220.article

'The claim followed the detonation of a 1,000kg bomb which had been dropped in 1942 during the so-called 'Baedeker raids' on British cities. It was discovered during building work in 2021 and tackled on-site by a team from the Royal Logistics Corps: an intended 'low order' explosion became high order when 630kg of high explosive went up.'

tlg86

williamglenn said:

DougSeal said:

Hitler partly to blame for 2021 blast damage, Court of Appeal confirms

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/hitler-partly-to-blame-for-2021-blast-damage-court-of-appeal-confirms/5118220.article

A chance for Sunak to intervene and demand reparations from Germany.

Something tells me that might not work out to our advantage.

Nigelb

JosiasJessop said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

The Brothers Karamazov

Hannah and her Sisters.

The Blues Brothers.

Super Mario Bros (which we've just watched. Again...)

My commiserations.

JosiasJessop

Nigelb said:

JosiasJessop said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Kurosawa's Ran, of course.

Plenty of brothers & father/son shit going down there.

The Brothers Karamazov

Hannah and her Sisters.

The Blues Brothers.

Super Mario Bros (which we've just watched. Again...)

My commiserations.

The second film is actually quite good, for kids. I'd prefer it over (say) Frozen.

But I'm probably one of the few unfortunate sods to have seen both Super Mario Bros films in the cinema. I'm still scarred by the Hoskins one...

david_herdson

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

I'd argue that Godfather 2 is a sibling story, at least in the 1950s line (and even then other strong elements).

Rain Man worth a mention.

Nigelb

DougSeal said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

On Fools and Horses

Dead Ringers. (Film and recent TV series)

TimS

david_herdson said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

I'd argue that Godfather 2 is a sibling story, at least in the 1950s line (and even then other strong elements).

Rain Man worth a mention.

Rain Man was in my initial list.
Only fools and horses was a good addition, if having a third old man there doesn’t dilute it.

Actually I just realised - maybe this was obvious and I’m the only one who didn’t know - that Father Ted is the same premise as Only Fools, just on a different setting.

Nigelb

It's not exactly a surprise, but why didn't we hear before ?

This claim about Trump, which has been confirmed by multiple people who have been around him, is bothering Trump and his team so much that they felt the need to comment on it.
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1738152212117745764

SandyRentool

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

Seven brides for seven brothers.

Daveyboy1961

MightyAlex said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

76000, it was the largest amount of money I'd ever spent.

OnlyLivingBoy

Nigelb said:

It's not exactly a surprise, but why didn't we hear before ?

This claim about Trump, which has been confirmed by multiple people who have been around him, is bothering Trump and his team so much that they felt the need to comment on it.
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1738152212117745764

I think I have heard this before, but it's hardly surprising is it?

Daveyboy1961

Daveyboy1961 said:

MightyAlex said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

76000, it was the largest amount of money I'd ever spent.

My wife and I had a combined income of 25000, we just made it. We were teachers.

OnlyLivingBoy

TimS said:

david_herdson said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

I'd argue that Godfather 2 is a sibling story, at least in the 1950s line (and even then other strong elements).

Rain Man worth a mention.

Rain Man was in my initial list.
Only fools and horses was a good addition, if having a third old man there doesn’t dilute it.

Actually I just realised - maybe this was obvious and I’m the only one who didn’t know - that Father Ted is the same premise as Only Fools, just on a different setting.

Both of the Guardian's top 2 TV shows of 2023 - The Bear and Succession - have sibling relationships at their core. Perhaps siblings stories are having a moment? I agree it is an unexplored theme in our culture and produces some very affecting and successful drama, eg Frozen and Rain Man, two of my favourite films.

malcolmg

londonpubman said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

Aren't 80% of mortgages on fixed rates now, for 2-5 years? In which case we are only just starting on interest rate rises for many households.

Yes, its completely changed around. FWIW and DYOR etc, I would be looking at the shorter end of any fix now because there is a reasonable chance that our flat lining economy will be being revived by lower base rates in 2 years time.

Artificially low interest rates for many years have been a cause of recent high inflation globally. Central banks will be nervous of lowering rates quickly even given an apparent fall in inflation. But 3% rates in 2% inflation environment appear reasonable over the long term.

I have to change 1st Feb and it is decision whether to take 2 year fix or take a tracker . Tracker 0.7% more expensive but may end up better if rates drop quickly. One for January

TimS

TimS said:

david_herdson said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

I'd argue that Godfather 2 is a sibling story, at least in the 1950s line (and even then other strong elements).

Rain Man worth a mention.

Rain Man was in my initial list.
Only fools and horses was a good addition, if having a third old man there doesn’t dilute it.

Actually I just realised - maybe this was obvious and I’m the only one who didn’t know - that Father Ted is the same premise as Only Fools, just on a different setting.

And in seven basic plots style, the other thing about Frozen is it’s one of those stories where you’re meant to identify with - and it’s seen through the first person eyes of - the supporting actor, but the main character is somehow “other” (you are Ana, Elsa is the fascinating other).

Quite common as a device. Sebastian as seen by Charles in Brideshead. David Brent as seen by Tim in the office. I’d argue true also of George as seen by Julian, Dick and Anne in the Famous 5. Willy Wonka seen by Charlie in the chocolate factory. In fact fiction is full of this.

The 2010s is a similar story. Boris as seen by everyone else.

Andy_Cooke

Taking out WV and DK, it's:

Own outright:
Con 35
Lab 30
LD 11
REFUK 12
Green 5

Own with mortgage:
Con 21
Lab 48
LD 10
REFUK 8
Green 7

Private rent:
Con 12
Lab 52
LD 7
REFUK 6
Green 10

Social Housing
Con 14
Lab 49
LD 7
REFUK 12
Green 7

StillWaters

Fpt @AverageNinja

rel="AverageNinja">

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AverageNinja said:

numbertwelve said:

Nothing wrong with pointing out SKS’s flaws. He has them, and he makes mistakes, and there may come a time when they cost him. At the moment, the Tories are so utterly crap that anything SKS does or doesnt do pales into insignificance, which is why he will win the election, and I hope he does.

What exactly are his flaws? He hasn't really done anything wrong in my view, that's why he's been so successful.

He was prepared and worked to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister, that is huge red flag and flaw.

So was most of the party, though, so it's more of an objection to Labour than Starmer himself.

But principled people in the Labour Party refused to serve under Corbyn, Starmer served in his shadow cabinet.

And if only Corbynites had served in the shadow cabinet Corbyn would probably have been succeeded as leader by another loon, so thank God he did.

I can tell you from my experience at Labour Party meetings, SKS serving made people vote for him. We'd have RLB as leader now if he hadn't done that.

Emily Thornberry is a reliable source on what SKS was like during Cabinet and she and Keir were most definitely against mostly everything Corbyn did and said.


Why do you think she is especially reliable?

Because she was prepared to call out the anti-Semitism and anti-Russia stances?

Doesn’t impact her reliability

She is aligning herself with her leader. And saying he’s a great guy and I was with him all the way.

It might be true and reliable. But it’s also exactly what an ambitious politician would say.

OnlyLivingBoy

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TimS said:

david_herdson said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

I'd argue that Godfather 2 is a sibling story, at least in the 1950s line (and even then other strong elements).

Rain Man worth a mention.

Rain Man was in my initial list.
Only fools and horses was a good addition, if having a third old man there doesn’t dilute it.

Actually I just realised - maybe this was obvious and I’m the only one who didn’t know - that Father Ted is the same premise as Only Fools, just on a different setting.

Both of the Guardian's top 2 TV shows of 2023 - The Bear and Succession - have sibling relationships at their core. Perhaps siblings stories are having a moment? I agree it is an unexplored theme in our culture and produces some very affecting and successful drama, eg Frozen and Rain Man, two of my favourite films.

Also, I didn't much care for Fleabag but the relationship between the main character and her sister was one of the few parts that I liked.
A Streetcar Named Desire has the sibling relationship at its heart.
Phil and Grant in Eastenders.
What I can't think of is a film or series with a brother/sister relationship at its core (ie different sexes). There's Ross and Monica in friends I suppose but that's not central to the plot of the sitcom. Ritchie and Joanie in Happy Days? Again, not central to the plot.

kyf_100

Daveyboy1961 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MightyAlex said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

76000, it was the largest amount of money I'd ever spent.

My wife and I had a combined income of 25000, we just made it. We were teachers.

So 3.1x salary on the 1990s multiple.

Now take a working couple both on the UK full time average salary of 35k, 3.1x of which is £217,000.

Average house price in England in 2023, £309,000.

Most young couples can't be in full time work if they also want kids. And good luck EVER getting out of the rental trap if you're single.

This of course ignores the fact that house prices are significantly higher in some regions than others. "Buying a house is easy! Just move across the country, away from your family, friendship group, support network, and career!"

Are we seeing yet where decades of unsustainable house price rises and ZIRP have brought us?

Daveyboy1961

kyf_100 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MightyAlex said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

76000, it was the largest amount of money I'd ever spent.

My wife and I had a combined income of 25000, we just made it. We were teachers.

So 3.1x salary on the 1990s multiple.

Now take a working couple both on the UK full time average salary of 35k, 3.1x of which is £217,000.

Average house price in England in 2023, £309,000.

Most young couples can't be in full time work if they also want kids. And good luck EVER getting out of the rental trap if you're single.

This of course ignores the fact that house prices are significantly higher in some regions than others. "Buying a house is easy! Just move across the country, away from your family, friendship group, support network, and career!"

Are we seeing yet where decades of unsustainable house price rises and ZIRP have brought us?

I totally agree. I am not being judgemental about our young people. My wife and I had to make the system work then for us. We would have found it impossible now. The house we bought was in maidenhead, so it shows howdifferent things we're then.

StillWaters

kyf_100 said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

6% on a mortgage 3x your annual income is a bargain. 6% on a mortgage 8-9x your annual income is murderous.

For the most part house prices have functioned as a result of disposable income, tracking closely to 30% of disposable income throughout most of the years 1983-2023.

We are now seeing a disconnect - affordability plummeting without a corresponding drop in prices, due to extreme scarcity created by decades of artificially restricted supply and unrestricted immigration.

For a lot of people, home ownership is a millstone around their neck, rather than the liberation and freedom it used to represent.

The only thing in its favour is that renting is even worse.

But that will not win the Tories votes...

How about 1.5% on a mortgage 3x your salary 😁

londonpubman

malcolmg said:

londonpubman said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

Aren't 80% of mortgages on fixed rates now, for 2-5 years? In which case we are only just starting on interest rate rises for many households.

Yes, its completely changed around. FWIW and DYOR etc, I would be looking at the shorter end of any fix now because there is a reasonable chance that our flat lining economy will be being revived by lower base rates in 2 years time.

Artificially low interest rates for many years have been a cause of recent high inflation globally. Central banks will be nervous of lowering rates quickly even given an apparent fall in inflation. But 3% rates in 2% inflation environment appear reasonable over the long term.

I have to change 1st Feb and it is decision whether to take 2 year fix or take a tracker . Tracker 0.7% more expensive but may end up better if rates drop quickly. One for January

Good luck with it. DYOR. Don't rely on anything I say here! 👍

Ghedebrav

kyf_100 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MightyAlex said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

76000, it was the largest amount of money I'd ever spent.

My wife and I had a combined income of 25000, we just made it. We were teachers.

So 3.1x salary on the 1990s multiple.

Now take a working couple both on the UK full time average salary of 35k, 3.1x of which is £217,000.

Average house price in England in 2023, £309,000.

Most young couples can't be in full time work if they also want kids. And good luck EVER getting out of the rental trap if you're single.

This of course ignores the fact that house prices are significantly higher in some regions than others. "Buying a house is easy! Just move across the country, away from your family, friendship group, support network, and career!"

Are we seeing yet where decades of unsustainable house price rises and ZIRP have brought us?

The rent thing is a killer. The preposterousness of renting costing up to double what a mortgage on a similar house would be is depressing. I found it tough back in the late 2000s, but without help it is practically impossible for millions of young people with decent jobs.

As an aside, I personally find the whole cycle of switch and renegotiation a bit odd (though locking in 2.75% for five years back in 2021 is almost certainly the best financial decision I have ever made, even though it was pretty much just blind luck). AIUI it's not like that in a lot of other places?

StillWaters

TimS said:

TimS said:

david_herdson said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

I'd argue that Godfather 2 is a sibling story, at least in the 1950s line (and even then other strong elements).

Rain Man worth a mention.

Rain Man was in my initial list.
Only fools and horses was a good addition, if having a third old man there doesn’t dilute it.

Actually I just realised - maybe this was obvious and I’m the only one who didn’t know - that Father Ted is the same premise as Only Fools, just on a different setting.

And in seven basic plots style, the other thing about Frozen is it’s one of those stories where you’re meant to identify with - and it’s seen through the first person eyes of - the supporting actor, but the main character is somehow “other” (you are Ana, Elsa is the fascinating other).

Quite common as a device. Sebastian as seen by Charles in Brideshead. David Brent as seen by Tim in the office. I’d argue true also of George as seen by Julian, Dick and Anne in the Famous 5. Willy Wonka seen by Charlie in the chocolate factory. In fact fiction is full of this.

The 2010s is a similar story. Boris as seen by everyone else.

I’ve just watched Saltburn - a mash up of [spoiler in next post]

Highly recommended

StillWaters

Brideshead Revisited and Talented Mr Ripley.

Ghedebrav

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TimS said:

david_herdson said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

I'd argue that Godfather 2 is a sibling story, at least in the 1950s line (and even then other strong elements).

Rain Man worth a mention.

Rain Man was in my initial list.
Only fools and horses was a good addition, if having a third old man there doesn’t dilute it.

Actually I just realised - maybe this was obvious and I’m the only one who didn’t know - that Father Ted is the same premise as Only Fools, just on a different setting.

Both of the Guardian's top 2 TV shows of 2023 - The Bear and Succession - have sibling relationships at their core. Perhaps siblings stories are having a moment? I agree it is an unexplored theme in our culture and produces some very affecting and successful drama, eg Frozen and Rain Man, two of my favourite films.

Encanto is about siblings too. Disney have a few. Lilo & Stitch, though arguably the older sister is really the mum for dramatic purposes.

Some of the Narnia books/films?

DecrepiterJohnL

'Demonic forces' stopped official investigations into UFOs in the UK
https://metro.co.uk/2023/12/22/government-failed-investigate-ufos-fears-demonic-forces-20013861/

@Leon vindicated.

The claim is that UFO research was stopped not by scientists who thought they were fake but by religious types who thought they were real but satanic.

algarkirk

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

Pedants' and pedant's note: Frasier.

OnlyLivingBoy

Ghedebrav said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TimS said:

david_herdson said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

Sibling movies contd.
Pride and Prejudice.
Sense and Sensibility.
Pride, Prejudice and Zombies.

(Everyone else still thinking about Michelle Pfeiffer...)

Thanks for this and the other sibling suggestions. I’d say some of these are in the Godfather category: siblings feature, but they’re not the main story. Sense and sensibility is perhaps closer to a true sibling story than P&P.

Of the sitcoms Frazier probably counts.

I’d forgotten Twins.

I'd argue that Godfather 2 is a sibling story, at least in the 1950s line (and even then other strong elements).

Rain Man worth a mention.

Rain Man was in my initial list.
Only fools and horses was a good addition, if having a third old man there doesn’t dilute it.

Actually I just realised - maybe this was obvious and I’m the only one who didn’t know - that Father Ted is the same premise as Only Fools, just on a different setting.

Both of the Guardian's top 2 TV shows of 2023 - The Bear and Succession - have sibling relationships at their core. Perhaps siblings stories are having a moment? I agree it is an unexplored theme in our culture and produces some very affecting and successful drama, eg Frozen and Rain Man, two of my favourite films.

Encanto is about siblings too. Disney have a few. Lilo & Stitch, though arguably the older sister is really the mum for dramatic purposes.

Some of the Narnia books/films?

The Railway Children!

algarkirk

Nigelb said:

SandyRentool said:

Obviously, on average those who own their home outright tend to be older than those with mortgages. So we are seeing a combination of age related voting intention and the impact of higher interest rates.

One of the reasons S Korea did so well economically is that both government and industry were absolutely brutal in avoiding responsibility for seniors.

During the period of highest growth, companies just let go anyone in their fifties and upward who wasn't a high flyer.
And there's a very strong cultural bias towards children, not the state, being responsible for the elderly.

Korea suffers OECD's highest old-age poverty rate
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.amp.asp?newsIdx=365400

On the whole Korean children have reacted to this by not being born. It has the world's lowest birthrate.

EPG

kyf_100 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MightyAlex said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

76000, it was the largest amount of money I'd ever spent.

My wife and I had a combined income of 25000, we just made it. We were teachers.

So 3.1x salary on the 1990s multiple.

Now take a working couple both on the UK full time average salary of 35k, 3.1x of which is £217,000.

Average house price in England in 2023, £309,000.

Most young couples can't be in full time work if they also want kids. And good luck EVER getting out of the rental trap if you're single.

This of course ignores the fact that house prices are significantly higher in some regions than others. "Buying a house is easy! Just move across the country, away from your family, friendship group, support network, and career!"

Are we seeing yet where decades of unsustainable house price rises and ZIRP have brought us?

If the price is X, that's because people can afford X. To be fair, until 150 years ago every economist believed the fallacy that there was an underlying "true price" of something; both Adam Smith and Karl Marx got flummoxed by the same puzzle.

Case in point, UK unemployment was over 10% in 1993, and a lot higher among young people. Fewer young people could afford X, so prices couldn't be X. (Yes, it's better to buy when 20-40% of your competitors are locked out, but it's not a long-term solution to affordability.)

As you point out, even if you still think young people should spend less of their income on housing and more on (???), it is very hard to convince someone to settle for cheaper housing and not to compete for more and better. That drives the price up to a higher level as long as buyers can afford it.

DecrepiterJohnL

New £38,700 visa rule will be introduced in early 2025, says Rishi Sunak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67801167

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New £38,700 visa rule will be introduced in early 2025, says Rishi Sunak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67801167

More flip flops than on Brighton beach during a Lib Dem conference.

numbertwelve

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New £38,700 visa rule will be introduced in early 2025, says Rishi Sunak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67801167

That’s just a lame attempt to lay a trap for Labour - force them to say whether theyll back it or not, and if they say no try and spin it that they don’t care about reducing immigration etc.

AverageNinja

Is Rishi Sunak actually thick?

isam

…

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New £38,700 visa rule will be introduced in early 2025, says Rishi Sunak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67801167

More flip flops than on Brighton beach during a Lib Dem conference.

Was that a request?

https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1703030484995842357?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

JohnLilburne

DecrepiterJohnL said:

'Demonic forces' stopped official investigations into UFOs in the UK
https://metro.co.uk/2023/12/22/government-failed-investigate-ufos-fears-demonic-forces-20013861/

@Leon vindicated.

The claim is that UFO research was stopped not by scientists who thought they were fake but by religious types who thought they were real but satanic.

Nick Pope's an arse. An unconvincing witness at the very least

algarkirk

The Guardian today is running a story which hints at Santa Claus not actually existing. This must be a spoof.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/dec/22/psychologists-pinpoint-age-when-children-become-sceptical-about-santa-claus

It contains the immortal line:

.....while other children believed in him until they were 15 or 16......

Scott_xP

...

isam

isam said:

…

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New £38,700 visa rule will be introduced in early 2025, says Rishi Sunak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67801167

More flip flops than on Brighton beach during a Lib Dem conference.

Was that a request?

https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1703030484995842357?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

A beautiful “matter of principle” regarding the private sector getting involved with the NHS here

https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1705632053734014989?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Malmesbury

DecrepiterJohnL said:

'Demonic forces' stopped official investigations into UFOs in the UK
https://metro.co.uk/2023/12/22/government-failed-investigate-ufos-fears-demonic-forces-20013861/

@Leon vindicated.

The claim is that UFO research was stopped not by scientists who thought they were fake but by religious types who thought they were real but satanic.

True. Aliens = Satan.

See this documentary -https://youtu.be/GT3W6mhvdMY?si=fpaPeAWvOpkGiEdT

Malmesbury

algarkirk said:

The Guardian today is running a story which hints at Santa Claus not actually existing. This must be a spoof.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/dec/22/psychologists-pinpoint-age-when-children-become-sceptical-about-santa-claus

It contains the immortal line:

.....while other children believed in him until they were 15 or 16......

I told my children that they are free not to believe in Santa. And he is free not to bring them presents.

AverageNinja

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/22/keir-starmer-considers-scaling-back-labour-28bn-pounds-green-plans

Keir Starmer considers scaling back Labour’s £28bn green plans

SandyRentool

algarkirk said:

The Guardian today is running a story which hints at Santa Claus not actually existing. This must be a spoof.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/dec/22/psychologists-pinpoint-age-when-children-become-sceptical-about-santa-claus

It contains the immortal line:

.....while other children believed in him until they were 15 or 16......

15 or 16 is nothing.

Some people believe in the old god bollocks throughout their adult life.

isam

Hadn’t seen this! Brilliant!!!

Amazingly, Starmer just about pulls this off. Sunak will be sick. He couldn’t. Not a chance.

https://x.com/spajw/status/1737854185901805649?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

geoffw

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New £38,700 visa rule will be introduced in early 2025, says Rishi Sunak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67801167

Disappointing tstl

AverageNinja

isam said:

Hadn’t seen this! Brilliant!!!

Amazingly, Starmer just about pulls this off. Sunak will be sick. He couldn’t. Not a chance.

https://x.com/spajw/status/1737854185901805649?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Are you alright?

kyf_100

EPG said:

kyf_100 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MightyAlex said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

On topic, the number of homeowners who say that they are going to vote Tory is quite horrendous for them. If they are even behind in that segment come the election they are doomed.

Mortgage rates have peaked and edged back under 6% but for anyone who was a first time buyer in the last decade that comes under the category of extortion (and government incompetence since it could hardly be their own fault that they over borrowed, could it?)

Mortgage rates have peaked (probably) in terms of their week-to-week movements but it'll be months before people start to see the rates they're coming off being higher than the ones they're moving onto, on like-for-like terms. Even if it does happen in 2024, it'll only affect a tiny fraction of mortgage-holders before the election, and a lot more will experience higher rates first.

Yes, back in the days when I was a first time buyer we were all on flexible rates for good or ill and the effect of base rate changes was instant. Now there are drip, drip, drips of agony all the way to the next election as previous, lower, fixed rates come to an end. It's not helpful.

yes, my first time mortgage in 1990 was at 10.75%, and that was a fixed!!

How much had you borrowed?

76000, it was the largest amount of money I'd ever spent.

My wife and I had a combined income of 25000, we just made it. We were teachers.

So 3.1x salary on the 1990s multiple.

Now take a working couple both on the UK full time average salary of 35k, 3.1x of which is £217,000.

Average house price in England in 2023, £309,000.

Most young couples can't be in full time work if they also want kids. And good luck EVER getting out of the rental trap if you're single.

This of course ignores the fact that house prices are significantly higher in some regions than others. "Buying a house is easy! Just move across the country, away from your family, friendship group, support network, and career!"

Are we seeing yet where decades of unsustainable house price rises and ZIRP have brought us?

If the price is X, that's because people can afford X. To be fair, until 150 years ago every economist believed the fallacy that there was an underlying "true price" of something; both Adam Smith and Karl Marx got flummoxed by the same puzzle.

Case in point, UK unemployment was over 10% in 1993, and a lot higher among young people. Fewer young people could afford X, so prices couldn't be X. (Yes, it's better to buy when 20-40% of your competitors are locked out, but it's not a long-term solution to affordability.)

As you point out, even if you still think young people should spend less of their income on housing and more on (???), it is very hard to convince someone to settle for cheaper housing and not to compete for more and better. That drives the price up to a higher level as long as buyers can afford it.

Competition is also an issue. We live in a world where houses are considered a store of value in a way they probably weren't in 1983 or even 1993.

Hence people complaining about far eastern buyers taking vast swathes of new developments and letting them sit empty.

We've seen similar developments in the luxury watch market, where Rolexes function as an ersatz currency in a KYC/AML era. Just as Rolexes are no longer a "mere" status symbol, houses are no longer a "mere" place to live, instead they're an investment vehicle.

This drives up house prices and causes people who just want a roof over their head to extend themselves further than they otherwise would.

Then there's the leasehold grift and the shared ownership grift that's shafted so many first time buyers in recent years.

To stay on the thread's topic, it's little wonder that homeowners are no longer Conservative voters - home ownership is no longer a panacea for those who've struggled to get on, or stay on, on the greasy rungs of the lower end of the property ladder over the last decade or so. As mentioned below, the only thing home ownership has going for it these days is that renting is even bloody worse.

Tres

moar dark brandon goodness

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/12/22/a-proclamation-on-granting-pardon-for-the-offense-of-simple-possession-of-marijuana-attempted-simple-possession-of-marijuana-or-use-of-marijuana/

Daveyboy1961

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

'Demonic forces' stopped official investigations into UFOs in the UK
https://metro.co.uk/2023/12/22/government-failed-investigate-ufos-fears-demonic-forces-20013861/

@Leon vindicated.

The claim is that UFO research was stopped not by scientists who thought they were fake but by religious types who thought they were real but satanic.

True. Aliens = Satan.

See this documentary -https://youtu.be/GT3W6mhvdMY?si=fpaPeAWvOpkGiEdT

Satan=Santa?

ydoethur

Scott_xP said:

...

Plus a load of forged audits and a conviction based on perjured evidence from a load of scumbags who have now retired on obscene pensions.

(Yes, I know they separated part way through.)