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Next Sunak will announce water is wet – politicalbetting.com

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  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Only 13.2% of Wellingborough voters signed Bone’s recall petition. That must mean 86.8% of Wellingborough voters must have been dead, in hospital, in jail, out of the country or intellectually challenged.

    They had a Bone to pick
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    It's a penalty shootout night.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Cookie said:

    What a start! Windies chasing 268 and first ball is a golden duck. 🤣

    Oh, hello Bart. I was just thinking I hadn't seen you in a while. Have you been taking a break or have I just failed to coincide with you lately?

    A pedant would point out that 'first ball is a golden duck' is a tautology.
    A greater pedant would retort that there are a number of things that can happen on a first ball - dot, 6,4, single etc. One of them is you might get out. If you are then 'duck' is an incomplete description, and the correct complete description is 'golden duck', which despite being two words is a single description of a particular recurring eventuality.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    eristdoof said:

    Leon said:

    That said I had some jolly nice oysters at the Red Lion and Sun, a gastropub in Highgate, yesterday

    You can find oyster quality in odd places, but the more peripheral tend to be more variable (and you do NOT want variablity in oysters)

    Your right I do not want variability in my oysters. I want no oysters.
    Can't trust a man who doesn't love oysters. Sorry. It is the ultimate test of masculine soundness

    It means you have overcome your natural but childish aversion to something that looks like donkey phlegm in an ashtray, and you have thought: I can do this. And you've girded your loins and you've tipped back your half shell and you've slurped it all up and then you've realised OMFG they're fantastic!!! And a lifelong love is born: because you were brave

    THAT, my friends, THAT is a man
    I have eaten oysters on several occasions they are fucking disgusting. However I am enough of a man to say they are fucking disgusting rather than to go with the flow because they are seen as haute cuisine by people like you who I suspect mostly go along with this shit because to not like oysters or champagne or caviar somehow marks you down as one of the hoi polloi....Oysters really are disgusting, fizzy wine is foul as for caviar it tastes salty is about the only thing you can say about it. You want to pay huge prices for overrated trash be my guest
    Matter of taste, I think.
    I love almost all seafood, oysters included; my wife dislikes almost all, ditto. Posh is irrelevant in this case.
    I think she was underrated. While Sporty and Scary were the heart and soul of the band, Posh caught the zeitgeist more than the others.
    Only plebs think Posh Spice is Posh.
    Next you will be saying that Emma Bunton was more than a year old.
    Or that Geri Halliwell is a knobbly misshapen root, often shaved into oriental food.
  • DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    eristdoof said:

    Leon said:

    That said I had some jolly nice oysters at the Red Lion and Sun, a gastropub in Highgate, yesterday

    You can find oyster quality in odd places, but the more peripheral tend to be more variable (and you do NOT want variablity in oysters)

    Your right I do not want variability in my oysters. I want no oysters.
    Can't trust a man who doesn't love oysters. Sorry. It is the ultimate test of masculine soundness

    It means you have overcome your natural but childish aversion to something that looks like donkey phlegm in an ashtray, and you have thought: I can do this. And you've girded your loins and you've tipped back your half shell and you've slurped it all up and then you've realised OMFG they're fantastic!!! And a lifelong love is born: because you were brave

    THAT, my friends, THAT is a man
    I have eaten oysters on several occasions they are fucking disgusting. However I am enough of a man to say they are fucking disgusting rather than to go with the flow because they are seen as haute cuisine by people like you who I suspect mostly go along with this shit because to not like oysters or champagne or caviar somehow marks you down as one of the hoi polloi....Oysters really are disgusting, fizzy wine is foul as for caviar it tastes salty is about the only thing you can say about it. You want to pay huge prices for overrated trash be my guest
    Matter of taste, I think.
    I love almost all seafood, oysters included; my wife dislikes almost all, ditto. Posh is irrelevant in this case.
    I think she was underrated. While Sporty and Scary were the heart and soul of the band, Posh caught the zeitgeist more than the others.
    Only plebs think Posh Spice is Posh.
    Next you will be saying that Emma Bunton was more than a year old.
    Or that Geri Halliwell is a knobbly misshapen root, often shaved into oriental food.
    She's not?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    eristdoof said:

    Leon said:

    That said I had some jolly nice oysters at the Red Lion and Sun, a gastropub in Highgate, yesterday

    You can find oyster quality in odd places, but the more peripheral tend to be more variable (and you do NOT want variablity in oysters)

    Your right I do not want variability in my oysters. I want no oysters.
    Can't trust a man who doesn't love oysters. Sorry. It is the ultimate test of masculine soundness

    It means you have overcome your natural but childish aversion to something that looks like donkey phlegm in an ashtray, and you have thought: I can do this. And you've girded your loins and you've tipped back your half shell and you've slurped it all up and then you've realised OMFG they're fantastic!!! And a lifelong love is born: because you were brave

    THAT, my friends, THAT is a man
    This is coming from someone who once posted (and it stuck in my mind from so long ago it was so striking) you were down the pub watching the rugby drinking white wine. Drinking white wine? I drink bitter in the pub, my wife drinks white wine.
    Well…

    https://youtu.be/Tne50bE-ips?si=aSqJXeR5L147qSXX
  • DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    eristdoof said:

    Leon said:

    That said I had some jolly nice oysters at the Red Lion and Sun, a gastropub in Highgate, yesterday

    You can find oyster quality in odd places, but the more peripheral tend to be more variable (and you do NOT want variablity in oysters)

    Your right I do not want variability in my oysters. I want no oysters.
    Can't trust a man who doesn't love oysters. Sorry. It is the ultimate test of masculine soundness

    It means you have overcome your natural but childish aversion to something that looks like donkey phlegm in an ashtray, and you have thought: I can do this. And you've girded your loins and you've tipped back your half shell and you've slurped it all up and then you've realised OMFG they're fantastic!!! And a lifelong love is born: because you were brave

    THAT, my friends, THAT is a man
    I have eaten oysters on several occasions they are fucking disgusting. However I am enough of a man to say they are fucking disgusting rather than to go with the flow because they are seen as haute cuisine by people like you who I suspect mostly go along with this shit because to not like oysters or champagne or caviar somehow marks you down as one of the hoi polloi....Oysters really are disgusting, fizzy wine is foul as for caviar it tastes salty is about the only thing you can say about it. You want to pay huge prices for overrated trash be my guest
    Matter of taste, I think.
    I love almost all seafood, oysters included; my wife dislikes almost all, ditto. Posh is irrelevant in this case.
    I think she was underrated. While Sporty and Scary were the heart and soul of the band, Posh caught the zeitgeist more than the others.
    Only plebs think Posh Spice is Posh.
    Next you will be saying that Emma Bunton was more than a year old.
    Or that Geri Halliwell is a knobbly misshapen root, often shaved into oriental food.
    Gingerbread men are oriental?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    TimS said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    eristdoof said:

    Leon said:

    That said I had some jolly nice oysters at the Red Lion and Sun, a gastropub in Highgate, yesterday

    You can find oyster quality in odd places, but the more peripheral tend to be more variable (and you do NOT want variablity in oysters)

    Your right I do not want variability in my oysters. I want no oysters.
    Can't trust a man who doesn't love oysters. Sorry. It is the ultimate test of masculine soundness

    It means you have overcome your natural but childish aversion to something that looks like donkey phlegm in an ashtray, and you have thought: I can do this. And you've girded your loins and you've tipped back your half shell and you've slurped it all up and then you've realised OMFG they're fantastic!!! And a lifelong love is born: because you were brave

    THAT, my friends, THAT is a man
    I have eaten oysters on several occasions they are fucking disgusting. However I am enough of a man to say they are fucking disgusting rather than to go with the flow because they are seen as haute cuisine by people like you who I suspect mostly go along with this shit because to not like oysters or champagne or caviar somehow marks you down as one of the hoi polloi....Oysters really are disgusting, fizzy wine is foul as for caviar it tastes salty is about the only thing you can say about it. You want to pay huge prices for overrated trash be my guest
    Matter of taste, I think.
    I love almost all seafood, oysters included; my wife dislikes almost all, ditto. Posh is irrelevant in this case.
    It is a matter of taste and there is certainly a food snobbery around many things like champagne, caviar, oysters . That was the whole gist of leons post in essence....you are not man enough to eat them else you would love them.... now imagine saying that to someone about for example liver which many people detest. Personally I enjoy it but I don't claim people are deficient for not sharing my taste.

    Champagne is the worst of it....get offered a glass and go no thanks and its all "but this is champagne" I have tried many from high to low end frankly I would rather put my own urine in a soda stream than drink the muck....hell I would rather have a pint of watneys red barrel than a glass of champagne and that really is foul
    Could someone please explain why I am supposed to enjoy champagne more than wine, real ale, malt whisky, or even piss?
    Champagne differs from its own uppityness. It’s delicious, though English or Welsh sparkling wine is of course equally delicious, but because it’s seen as an occasion wine most people don’t actually drink it for the taste. Or have too high expectations. Which is a shame. It’s simply a good drink, better than crémants or cava, but not holy water.
    No, there is an actual reason. And I have cited it below
    Champagne makes me fart.

    Oysters are ... ok. I like a seafoody taste, but I find a food you're supposed to drink challenging. I prefer mussels, tbh. Or cockles. Or prawns.
    And I prefer cava to champagne. Though if I were offered a glass of champagne right now I would cheerfully accept.
    Champagne (and Cava) do of course cover a vast array of flavour profiles, varietal mixes, ages etc. But generic Cava plus a tiny dab of fino sherry is a lovely combination.
    Mrs Foxy used the love Champagne, but now prefers Prosecco from Sainsbury. Quite unpleasant to my taste, being thin and dry with little bouquet. Her taste buds changed with covid 2 years ago and never totally recovered.

    Saved me a bloody fortune.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Ho-ho-ho Happy Christmas everyone:

    Rishi Sunak is meeting just one of the five priorities he set out at the start of the year, according to BBC analysis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67752738

    Now, at Leon's request, lesson 2 of successful project management: Make sure all the targets you publish are slam-dunk gimmes.

    Lesson 2a of project management, at no one’s request but relevant to Sunak’s promises: if at the time you set targets they were actually slam dunk gimmies, driving trains pays well as an alternative career.

    However, the truth here, in case you have not been paying attention, If the economy grows at 0.00001 and 0.000001 is shaved off borrowing, Sunak can tell Mr Speaker he has grown the economy and got borrowing down, at every PMQs. And he is.
    There is not a cat in hell's chance of even 0.000001p being shaved off Debt (which as the pledge). The amount being added to debt each month (the deficit) might reduce but that is not what Sunak pledged. (And in fact the deficit rose to in the last published figures which were for Q2 2023.)
    Hey Ben, this is new today.

    in a video posted on X after the autumn statement Sunak said “debt is falling”. Later in November he told MPs at PMQs “we have indeed reduced debt”.

    No 10 tried to justify Sunak’s “is falling” comment by saying he was referring to what was forecast to happen in 2028. 🫣


    At what point is it straightforward lying to the House of Commons?

    26m agoSunak rebuked by UK's statistics watchdog for making misleading claim about government debt falling

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/dec/19/michael-gove-sadiq-khan-housebuilding-planning-policy-england-rishi-sunak-scotland-budget-keir-starmer-uk-politics-latest?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-
    6581c16d8f087b322e46368e#block-6581c16d8f087b322e46368e
    Indeed. I can today announce that I have lost a couple of stone in 2024.
    Based on the changes in expected calorific intake, the securitised value of your weight has changed and so it’s entirely reasonable to mark to market and book that as an achievement.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Most of my team are scottish, the ones affected by the new tax rate are already looking at paying more into penisons/salary sacrifice schemes. One also remarked when I mentioned it that most of what it collected was going to be spent on collecting it

    Question - whilst tax rates are devolved to Holyrood, is collection? Isn't HMRC responsible for collecting taxes north of the wall? The same HMRC cut to the bone by the Tories?

    Gift Week for Scottish accountants. Will drop a merry Christmas email to mine, wonder how happy he is...
    I can confirm, we pay to HMRC.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Good grief.

    This is not a good match to be a specialist bowler.

    I hate to think what's going to happen to Sam Curran and Liam Livingstone.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    Cookie said:

    What a start! Windies chasing 268 and first ball is a golden duck. 🤣

    Oh, hello Bart. I was just thinking I hadn't seen you in a while. Have you been taking a break or have I just failed to coincide with you lately?

    A pedant would point out that 'first ball is a golden duck' is a tautology.
    Been taking a break.

    Only partially tautological, you can have both a golden duck that's not the first ball of an innings of course, as well as a first ball of an innings that's not a wicket so not a golden duck either.

    This match has everything though, Windies making quick work of scoring now to stay in the match for now at least.
    Well welcome back.
    What you say is true - you can have a golden duck which isn't first ball - but you can't have a first ball wicket which isn't a golden duck.

    On another subject, I've just remembered mackerel. Mackerel is delicious. Though possibly it's the smoke you can taste and without that it would just taste fishy.
    And mackerel pate is delicious too, and very easy to make.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Pagan2 said:

    Most of my team are scottish, the ones affected by the new tax rate are already looking at paying more into penisons/salary sacrifice schemes. One also remarked when I mentioned it that most of what it collected was going to be spent on collecting it

    1. I thought you were always moaning about how your wages had stagnated and were piss-poor because of globalisation. Yet your team are all earning over £75k?

    2. The cost of collection is trivial surely? Plug the figures in, run the calculation and either the employer deducts and pays the tax or the self-employed pay it direct to HMRC.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    On the Scottish budget I think it’s good we have some differential tax rates starting to pop up. In my opinion we need much more tax devolution. Allow regions and nations to experiment, see what works.

    At the moment we have regional policies that are almost all decided from Westminster. This stifles regional competition.

    The trouble is like most other devolution it means we need to be tolerant of regional differences in outcomes, and postcode lotteries.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Should I be worried that I cannot come up with a single innuendo in the headline for the thread I'm writing about Peter Bone and the by election?

    Are you saying that you can’t get a header… up on PB?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    Pagan2 said:

    Most of my team are scottish, the ones affected by the new tax rate are already looking at paying more into penisons/salary sacrifice schemes. One also remarked when I mentioned it that most of what it collected was going to be spent on collecting it

    1. I thought you were always moaning about how your wages had stagnated and were piss-poor because of globalisation. Yet your team are all earning over £75k?

    2. The cost of collection is trivial surely? Plug the figures in, run the calculation and either the employer deducts and pays the tax or the self-employed pay it direct to HMRC.
    I said the ones affected...like most teams there is a range of salaries. I would not be affected if I lived in scotland
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    Pulpstar said:

    So nominative determinism strikes again.

    First it was Chris Pincher, now Peter Bone, should Rishi Sunak be worried about Greg Hands?

    There's always an exception to the rule, I give you James Cleverly.
    Michelle Mone
    Having watched the Mone interview two things struck me. Firstly a lot of Botox seems to havebeen involved.

    Secondly, and more interestingly, she says that there is no requirement not to lie to the media. Oddly, I actually agree with her. Parliament and law courts yes, you are not allowed to lie. But to the press?
    Although threatening the media when they were reporting the truth is a bit off…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Should I be worried that I cannot come up with a single innuendo in the headline for the thread I'm writing about Peter Bone and the by election?

    I am sure you'll rise to the occasion.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,408
    SOmething going on with the beeb? 22.10 and News at Ten hasn't started
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    Pulpstar said:

    So nominative determinism strikes again.

    First it was Chris Pincher, now Peter Bone, should Rishi Sunak be worried about Greg Hands?

    There's always an exception to the rule, I give you James Cleverly.
    Michelle Mone
    Having watched the Mone interview two things struck me. Firstly a lot of Botox seems to havebeen involved.

    Secondly, and more interestingly, she says that there is no requirement not to lie to the media. Oddly, I actually agree with her. Parliament and law courts yes, you are not allowed to lie. But to the press?
    Although threatening the media when they were reporting the truth is a bit off…
    Dan Neidle has some very sensible suggestions for how we can amend the law to create more consequences for those who threaten libel action while lying.

    Mone is correct, under current law.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Good grief.

    This is not a good match to be a specialist bowler.

    I hate to think what's going to happen to Sam Curran and Liam Livingstone.

    WI still have Hope.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    SOmething going on with the beeb? 22.10 and News at Ten hasn't started

    SPOTY overran maybe?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Pulpstar said:

    So nominative determinism strikes again.

    First it was Chris Pincher, now Peter Bone, should Rishi Sunak be worried about Greg Hands?

    There's always an exception to the rule, I give you James Cleverly.
    Michelle Mone
    Having watched the Mone interview two things struck me. Firstly a lot of Botox seems to havebeen involved.

    Secondly, and more interestingly, she says that there is no requirement not to lie to the media. Oddly, I actually agree with her. Parliament and law courts yes, you are not allowed to lie. But to the press?
    Although threatening the media when they were reporting the truth is a bit off…
    No law against saying that someone who lied so consistently simply can’t be taken at her word that she did nothing criminal, either.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good grief.

    This is not a good match to be a specialist bowler.

    I hate to think what's going to happen to Sam Curran and Liam Livingstone.

    WI still have Hope.
    They are without Hope now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Never ceases to amaze me how many PBers are fussy eaters who have lived sheltered lives.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Pagan2 said:

    Most of my team are scottish, the ones affected by the new tax rate are already looking at paying more into penisons/salary sacrifice schemes. One also remarked when I mentioned it that most of what it collected was going to be spent on collecting it

    1. I thought you were always moaning about how your wages had stagnated and were piss-poor because of globalisation. Yet your team are all earning over £75k?

    2. The cost of collection is trivial surely? Plug the figures in, run the calculation and either the employer deducts and pays the tax or the self-employed pay it direct to HMRC.
    It’s the increased take at 42.5% which raises the vast bulk of the extra money - and that hits those a much more modest salary.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    Pagan2 said:

    Most of my team are scottish, the ones affected by the new tax rate are already looking at paying more into penisons/salary sacrifice schemes. One also remarked when I mentioned it that most of what it collected was going to be spent on collecting it

    1. I thought you were always moaning about how your wages had stagnated and were piss-poor because of globalisation. Yet your team are all earning over £75k?

    2. The cost of collection is trivial surely? Plug the figures in, run the calculation and either the employer deducts and pays the tax or the self-employed pay it direct to HMRC.
    I don't think it's trivial. I wouldn't like to be the IT team in charge of assessing whether everyone's tax was subject to Scottish tax rates or English ones. But it's small compared to the amount raised by taxation. But my expectation is that this will be a net loss to the Scottish exchequer - they will lose more in discouraging people to earn than they will raise in people paying more tax, even if the cost of collection is ignored. But it will be an interesting experiment.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
  • So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    Would you have preferred a cricketer who didn't win the World Cup?

    Or a rugby player who didn't win the World Cup instead?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nominative determinism strikes again.

    First it was Chris Pincher, now Peter Bone, should Rishi Sunak be worried about Greg Hands?

    There's always an exception to the rule, I give you James Cleverly.
    Michelle Mone
    Having watched the Mone interview two things struck me. Firstly a lot of Botox seems to havebeen involved.

    Secondly, and more interestingly, she says that there is no requirement not to lie to the media. Oddly, I actually agree with her. Parliament and law courts yes, you are not allowed to lie. But to the press?
    Although threatening the media when they were reporting the truth is a bit off…
    No law against saying that someone who lied so consistently simply can’t be taken at her word that she did nothing criminal, either.

    I once watched a TVshow about police interviews. One thing that always struck me was the point that if a suspect changes they’re story once, chances are they will change it again. What odds that Mone still isn’t telling the truth?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.
    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
  • TimS said:

    On the Scottish budget I think it’s good we have some differential tax rates starting to pop up. In my opinion we need much more tax devolution. Allow regions and nations to experiment, see what works.

    At the moment we have regional policies that are almost all decided from Westminster. This stifles regional competition.

    The trouble is like most other devolution it means we need to be tolerant of regional differences in outcomes, and postcode lotteries.

    This used to be done (to a limited extent) with local Council Rates. As you say, a Good Thing (provided people (especially politicians) stop wittering on about a "Postcode Lottery".
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    Would you have preferred a cricketer who didn't win the World Cup?

    Or a rugby player who didn't win the World Cup instead?
    I had a soft spot for someone who won gold at the World Champioships, Josh Kerr, but in recent times the BBC has decided to restrict the number of candidates.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nominative determinism strikes again.

    First it was Chris Pincher, now Peter Bone, should Rishi Sunak be worried about Greg Hands?

    There's always an exception to the rule, I give you James Cleverly.
    Michelle Mone
    Having watched the Mone interview two things struck me. Firstly a lot of Botox seems to havebeen involved.

    Secondly, and more interestingly, she says that there is no requirement not to lie to the media. Oddly, I actually agree with her. Parliament and law courts yes, you are not allowed to lie. But to the press?
    Although threatening the media when they were reporting the truth is a bit off…
    No law against saying that someone who lied so consistently simply can’t be taken at her word that she did nothing criminal, either.

    I once watched a TVshow about police interviews. One thing that always struck me was the point that if a suspect changes they’re story once, chances are they will change it again. What odds that Mone still isn’t telling the truth?
    If she is telling the truth it would be a dramatic break with past practice.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Yes, if we only allowed footballers who won the World Cup to be SPOTY we would never get a footballing SPOTY. Gosh, Ryan Giggs won it won year. Not often you hear the words 'Ryan Giggs' and 'personality in the same sentence.

    I actually watched Mary Earps at Old Trafford a couple of weeks back. It did not strike me that here was a particular outstanding goalkeeper. Her counterpart for City had a better game. But everyone has off days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    I see Sam Curran is channelling his inner Desmond Haynes with blatant time wasting.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited December 2023
    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Most of my team are scottish, the ones affected by the new tax rate are already looking at paying more into penisons/salary sacrifice schemes. One also remarked when I mentioned it that most of what it collected was going to be spent on collecting it

    1. I thought you were always moaning about how your wages had stagnated and were piss-poor because of globalisation. Yet your team are all earning over £75k?

    2. The cost of collection is trivial surely? Plug the figures in, run the calculation and either the employer deducts and pays the tax or the self-employed pay it direct to HMRC.
    I don't think it's trivial. I wouldn't like to be the IT team in charge of assessing whether everyone's tax was subject to Scottish tax rates or English ones. But it's small compared to the amount raised by taxation. But my expectation is that this will be a net loss to the Scottish exchequer - they will lose more in discouraging people to earn than they will raise in people paying more tax, even if the cost of collection is ignored. But it will be an interesting experiment.
    It’s really simple, if your address has a Scottish postcode your tax code has an S in front of it and you are subject to Scottish tax rates.

    Payments need to be reported to HMRC via RTI and the money is paid directly to HMRC alongside payments for other employees

    Supposedly the amount raised is £80m or so which is accurate if IR35 remains as it is because (as was pointed out elsewhere) it’s hard to switch to dividends if you are an employee being paid via PAYE
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    Okay. 🙂

    Meanwhile, tomorrow’s metro has Prince Andrew sweating over the Christmas holiday 💦
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    They could make it Sports Person of the Year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.
    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    I’m skeptical about tax rates as high as that for more libertarian reasons, but I think the Laffer argument against them largely dishonest, or deluded.
  • So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Should I be worried that I cannot come up with a single innuendo in the headline for the thread I'm writing about Peter Bone and the by election?

    Hard call! Take a stiff one and before you know it something will come up.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    What a start! Windies chasing 268 and first ball is a golden duck. 🤣

    Oh, hello Bart. I was just thinking I hadn't seen you in a while. Have you been taking a break or have I just failed to coincide with you lately?

    A pedant would point out that 'first ball is a golden duck' is a tautology.
    Been taking a break.

    Only partially tautological, you can have both a golden duck that's not the first ball of an innings of course, as well as a first ball of an innings that's not a wicket so not a golden duck either.

    This match has everything though, Windies making quick work of scoring now to stay in the match for now at least.
    Well welcome back.
    What you say is true - you can have a golden duck which isn't first ball - but you can't have a first ball wicket which isn't a golden duck.

    On another subject, I've just remembered mackerel. Mackerel is delicious. Though possibly it's the smoke you can taste and without that it would just taste fishy.
    And mackerel pate is delicious too, and very easy to make.
    What if the 1st ball is a no-ball and you're out to the 2nd?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic - November next year.

    Mr Sunak will use the LE as a test run for a June election. When the results are, ahem, not quite what he needs then he will panic and delay until November.

    It doesn't matter. Neither immigration nor oysters will save him

    My assumption all along had been that he would go late. Why wouldn't he? But then came the autumn statement, and we have plenty of evidence that Plan A is 2nd May.

    Sunak needs momentum - not just to try and recover the polls, but also to bowl out the lunatics in the five families / ReFUK. A push towards an election is the best momentum he will get.

    By March they will know that the Rwanda bill has bogged down. That's its purpose. Blame the Blob / Labour / Woke, run an immigration election, "the people's priorities vs Labour" etc and hope that Starmer trips himself up.

    Or, don't. Wait it out. Rwanda bogs down with no end in sight. 5 Families out for blood, Farage out for more. Polls not closing. And no cards left to play.
    And his choice is either to put down his one remaining chip in May, when it almost certainly loses, or bide his time until October when he even more almost certainly loses. The effect of people remortgaging trumps any tax cuts he can pretend to offer.

    Even if May leads to a smaller defeat for the party, October leads to a better, longer stay in No 10 for Sunak and a longer time in Parliament for many of his MPs.

    And that's his dilemma.
    Interesting polling today on homeowners.



    I expected that the owners without mortgages would be either wealthy or retired or both. Nonetheless Labour running a pretty close second in a core Tory demographic.

    Can Starmer get out the grey vote?
    By definition, anyone who has a house with no mortgage significantly before retirement in today's housing market must be fairly wealthy.*

    A much bigger problem is they may not feel as if they are.

    *As of today, this could include me although having fixed for 5 years at 1.6% two years ago I'm in no hurry to actually do so.
    Or have inherited it or been gifted it by their parents
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    They could make it Sports Person of the Year.
    It would make more sense but it’s been that way forever.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    Was it Nigel Mansell who had to endure the comment 'how could a man with no personality be Sports Personality of the Year?'
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    SOmething going on with the beeb? 22.10 and News at Ten hasn't started

    SPOTY overran maybe?
    Speaking as a non sports fan, why do sports programmes always overrun and never finish early?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    Okay. 🙂

    Meanwhile, tomorrow’s metro has Prince Andrew sweating over the Christmas holiday 💦
    The “I” has MI6 announcing water is wet - to borrow a phrase.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic - November next year.

    Mr Sunak will use the LE as a test run for a June election. When the results are, ahem, not quite what he needs then he will panic and delay until November.

    It doesn't matter. Neither immigration nor oysters will save him

    My assumption all along had been that he would go late. Why wouldn't he? But then came the autumn statement, and we have plenty of evidence that Plan A is 2nd May.

    Sunak needs momentum - not just to try and recover the polls, but also to bowl out the lunatics in the five families / ReFUK. A push towards an election is the best momentum he will get.

    By March they will know that the Rwanda bill has bogged down. That's its purpose. Blame the Blob / Labour / Woke, run an immigration election, "the people's priorities vs Labour" etc and hope that Starmer trips himself up.

    Or, don't. Wait it out. Rwanda bogs down with no end in sight. 5 Families out for blood, Farage out for more. Polls not closing. And no cards left to play.
    And his choice is either to put down his one remaining chip in May, when it almost certainly loses, or bide his time until October when he even more almost certainly loses. The effect of people remortgaging trumps any tax cuts he can pretend to offer.

    Even if May leads to a smaller defeat for the party, October leads to a better, longer stay in No 10 for Sunak and a longer time in Parliament for many of his MPs.

    And that's his dilemma.
    Interesting polling today on homeowners.



    I expected that the owners without mortgages would be either wealthy or retired or both. Nonetheless Labour running a pretty close second in a core Tory demographic.

    Can Starmer get out the grey vote?
    By definition, anyone who has a house with no mortgage significantly before retirement in today's housing market must be fairly wealthy.*

    A much bigger problem is they may not feel as if they are.

    *As of today, this could include me although having fixed for 5 years at 1.6% two years ago I'm in no hurry to actually do so.
    Or have inherited it or been gifted it by their parents
    Ye-es, but that still comes under 'fairly wealthy.' Housing costs are a significant part of most people's budgets.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good grief.

    This is not a good match to be a specialist bowler.

    I hate to think what's going to happen to Sam Curran and Liam Livingstone.

    WI still have Hope.
    Hope Hicks has moved to the dairy capital of the world?

  • So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nominative determinism strikes again.

    First it was Chris Pincher, now Peter Bone, should Rishi Sunak be worried about Greg Hands?

    There's always an exception to the rule, I give you James Cleverly.
    Michelle Mone
    Having watched the Mone interview two things struck me. Firstly a lot of Botox seems to havebeen involved.

    Secondly, and more interestingly, she says that there is no requirement not to lie to the media. Oddly, I actually agree with her. Parliament and law courts yes, you are not allowed to lie. But to the press?
    Although threatening the media when they were reporting the truth is a bit off…
    No law against saying that someone who lied so consistently simply can’t be taken at her word that she did nothing criminal, either.

    I once watched a TVshow about police interviews. One thing that always struck me was the point that if a suspect changes they’re story once, chances are they will change it again. What odds that Mone still isn’t telling the truth?
    Mone has been lying since at least 2014, when she said Scotland would be better off remaining in the union.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    eristdoof said:

    Leon said:

    That said I had some jolly nice oysters at the Red Lion and Sun, a gastropub in Highgate, yesterday

    You can find oyster quality in odd places, but the more peripheral tend to be more variable (and you do NOT want variablity in oysters)

    Your right I do not want variability in my oysters. I want no oysters.
    Can't trust a man who doesn't love oysters. Sorry. It is the ultimate test of masculine soundness

    It means you have overcome your natural but childish aversion to something that looks like donkey phlegm in an ashtray, and you have thought: I can do this. And you've girded your loins and you've tipped back your half shell and you've slurped it all up and then you've realised OMFG they're fantastic!!! And a lifelong love is born: because you were brave

    THAT, my friends, THAT is a man
    I have eaten oysters on several occasions they are fucking disgusting. However I am enough of a man to say they are fucking disgusting rather than to go with the flow because they are seen as haute cuisine by people like you who I suspect mostly go along with this shit because to not like oysters or champagne or caviar somehow marks you down as one of the hoi polloi....Oysters really are disgusting, fizzy wine is foul as for caviar it tastes salty is about the only thing you can say about it. You want to pay huge prices for overrated trash be my guest
    Matter of taste, I think.
    I love almost all seafood, oysters included; my wife dislikes almost all, ditto. Posh is irrelevant in this case.
    It is a matter of taste and there is certainly a food snobbery around many things like champagne, caviar, oysters . That was the whole gist of leons post in essence....you are not man enough to eat them else you would love them.... now imagine saying that to someone about for example liver which many people detest. Personally I enjoy it but I don't claim people are deficient for not sharing my taste.

    Champagne is the worst of it....get offered a glass and go no thanks and its all "but this is champagne" I have tried many from high to low end frankly I would rather put my own urine in a soda stream than drink the muck....hell I would rather have a pint of watneys red barrel than a glass of champagne and that really is foul
    Could someone please explain why I am supposed to enjoy champagne more than wine, real ale, malt whisky, or even piss?
    Champagne gets you pissed much quicker. Because of the bubbles. This is why it is popularly served at social receptions where a more instaneous intoxication, or cheeriness, is required
    So, if I were to market fizzy Buckfast, I would make my fortune in the wine bars of Govan?
    What do you need fizz for?

    "Flavour: Intense and sweet aromas of wild fruits such as plums and cherries, intertwined with notes of cola and a touch of anise.

    Taste: It has a sweet and corpulent entrance. On the palate delicious cherry notes are released; shows its soft and pleasant texture."

    https://www.mitchellswine.co.uk/shop/champagne_and_sparkling/sparkling/?=buckfast_tonic_wine&ref=4326
    It actually sounds quite interesting. I’ve never encountered it. Presumably it’s overly sweet and therefore rather less appealing than those tasting notes suggest?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Most of my team are scottish, the ones affected by the new tax rate are already looking at paying more into penisons/salary sacrifice schemes. One also remarked when I mentioned it that most of what it collected was going to be spent on collecting it

    1. I thought you were always moaning about how your wages had stagnated and were piss-poor because of globalisation. Yet your team are all earning over £75k?

    2. The cost of collection is trivial surely? Plug the figures in, run the calculation and either the employer deducts and pays the tax or the self-employed pay it direct to HMRC.
    I don't think it's trivial. I wouldn't like to be the IT team in charge of assessing whether everyone's tax was subject to Scottish tax rates or English ones. But it's small compared to the amount raised by taxation. But my expectation is that this will be a net loss to the Scottish exchequer - they will lose more in discouraging people to earn than they will raise in people paying more tax, even if the cost of collection is ignored. But it will be an interesting experiment.
    I don't know what the residency rules are but they will already be in existence and each employee assigned either to Scottish or English residence, surely, because differential tax has existed for some time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited December 2023
    ydoethur said:

    I see Sam Curran is channelling his inner Desmond Haynes with blatant time wasting.

    Rashid is pretty tasty, though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    Foxy said:

    On topic - November next year.

    Mr Sunak will use the LE as a test run for a June election. When the results are, ahem, not quite what he needs then he will panic and delay until November.

    It doesn't matter. Neither immigration nor oysters will save him

    My assumption all along had been that he would go late. Why wouldn't he? But then came the autumn statement, and we have plenty of evidence that Plan A is 2nd May.

    Sunak needs momentum - not just to try and recover the polls, but also to bowl out the lunatics in the five families / ReFUK. A push towards an election is the best momentum he will get.

    By March they will know that the Rwanda bill has bogged down. That's its purpose. Blame the Blob / Labour / Woke, run an immigration election, "the people's priorities vs Labour" etc and hope that Starmer trips himself up.

    Or, don't. Wait it out. Rwanda bogs down with no end in sight. 5 Families out for blood, Farage out for more. Polls not closing. And no cards left to play.
    And his choice is either to put down his one remaining chip in May, when it almost certainly loses, or bide his time until October when he even more almost certainly loses. The effect of people remortgaging trumps any tax cuts he can pretend to offer.

    Even if May leads to a smaller defeat for the party, October leads to a better, longer stay in No 10 for Sunak and a longer time in Parliament for many of his MPs.

    And that's his dilemma.
    Interesting polling today on homeowners.



    I expected that the owners without mortgages would be either wealthy or retired or both. Nonetheless Labour running a pretty close second in a core Tory demographic.

    Can Starmer get out the grey vote?
    In 1997 Blair won even over 65s, if the Tories lead still, even narrowly, with home owners (outright) then Sunak should still keep the pensioner vote at least this time.

    Interesting too RefUK almost second to Labour amongst those renting in social/housing association properties and the Greens almost second to Labour amongst those renting privately
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    Speculation of US/US-led strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen is rising. The Gulf allies seem ok with it but with different degrees of nervousness: Saudis concerned it might set off wider issues, UAE reportedly gung ho.

    The US have enough assets to flatten a lot of Houthi gear but they had an intelligence shortfall on targets and not clear if thats been addressed yet. The whole multi national vessel protection operation is both standalone in nature but also provides an element of political cover for such a set of strikes.

    The other question is Biden who seems to have a very cautious attitude on the degree of force he is inclined to authorise. This may mean, if it goes ahead, something small and reactive rather than maybe a few days of blasting the crap out of anything that may be hanging about the Yemeni coast.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    ydoethur said:

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    Was it Nigel Mansell who had to endure the comment 'how could a man with no personality be Sports Personality of the Year?'
    Wasn’t it: sports personality Nigel Mansell is a contradiction in terms?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    On topic - November next year.

    Mr Sunak will use the LE as a test run for a June election. When the results are, ahem, not quite what he needs then he will panic and delay until November.

    It doesn't matter. Neither immigration nor oysters will save him

    My assumption all along had been that he would go late. Why wouldn't he? But then came the autumn statement, and we have plenty of evidence that Plan A is 2nd May.

    Sunak needs momentum - not just to try and recover the polls, but also to bowl out the lunatics in the five families / ReFUK. A push towards an election is the best momentum he will get.

    By March they will know that the Rwanda bill has bogged down. That's its purpose. Blame the Blob / Labour / Woke, run an immigration election, "the people's priorities vs Labour" etc and hope that Starmer trips himself up.

    Or, don't. Wait it out. Rwanda bogs down with no end in sight. 5 Families out for blood, Farage out for more. Polls not closing. And no cards left to play.
    And his choice is either to put down his one remaining chip in May, when it almost certainly loses, or bide his time until October when he even more almost certainly loses. The effect of people remortgaging trumps any tax cuts he can pretend to offer.

    Even if May leads to a smaller defeat for the party, October leads to a better, longer stay in No 10 for Sunak and a longer time in Parliament for many of his MPs.

    And that's his dilemma.
    The longer he drags it on the more damage is done to the party. His one wildcard is the Labour war against sanity Starmer.

    Its entirely possible that Starmer collapses that lead. Its big but its soft. May blew things up, could Starmer also falter? Especially when put under the right amount of stress?
    Sir Keir has fallen to bits a few times in interviews or under pressure; he doesn’t seem to be good answering questions and either stutters, goes completely blank or repeats the same sentence time and again as if the interviewer is being stupid by not understanding the first time

    But I can’t see that shifting enough votes to make it competitive, can you? The public hate the Tories, and his own voters don’t seem to like Sunak that much
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    Every year it’s a tough call who’s most deserving. Motor racing and golf win too many of these. Earps was brilliant in the World Cup.
  • Never ceases to amaze me how many PBers are fussy eaters who have lived sheltered lives.

    It's depressing how many triumphalist middle-classes lefties are in thrall to the cult of foodism.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    SOmething going on with the beeb? 22.10 and News at Ten hasn't started

    SPOTY overran maybe?
    Speaking as a non sports fan, why do sports programmes always overrun and never finish early?
    Test matches often finish early when England are playing.
  • So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    No, I don't care for athletics.

    Someone who wins a few golds, in multiple races, is more impressive but winning one race? Well done, its great going and they deserve the gold, but its not beating everyone else for being a successful sports person.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.
    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    I’m skeptical about tax rates as high as that for more libertarian reasons, but I think the Laffer argument against them largely dishonest, or deluded.
    Yes I just meant to maximize the tax take (which Laffer supposedly is about) but an optimum tax regime is about more than that. People are not lemons, they need to have some juice left in there.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    TimS said:

    On the Scottish budget I think it’s good we have some differential tax rates starting to pop up. In my opinion we need much more tax devolution. Allow regions and nations to experiment, see what works.

    At the moment we have regional policies that are almost all decided from Westminster. This stifles regional competition.

    The trouble is like most other devolution it means we need to be tolerant of regional differences in outcomes, and postcode lotteries.

    This used to be done (to a limited extent) with local Council Rates. As you say, a Good Thing (provided people (especially politicians) stop wittering on about a "Postcode Lottery".
    Has anyone except a politician or the daily mail ever used the phrase “postcode lottery”

    Apart from *the* Postcode Lottery, obviously…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nominative determinism strikes again.

    First it was Chris Pincher, now Peter Bone, should Rishi Sunak be worried about Greg Hands?

    There's always an exception to the rule, I give you James Cleverly.
    Michelle Mone
    Having watched the Mone interview two things struck me. Firstly a lot of Botox seems to havebeen involved.

    Secondly, and more interestingly, she says that there is no requirement not to lie to the media. Oddly, I actually agree with her. Parliament and law courts yes, you are not allowed to lie. But to the press?
    Although threatening the media when they were reporting the truth is a bit off…
    No law against saying that someone who lied so consistently simply can’t be taken at her word that she did nothing criminal, either.

    I once watched a TVshow about police interviews. One thing that always struck me was the point that if a suspect changes they’re story once, chances are they will change it again. What odds that Mone still isn’t telling the truth?
    If she is telling the truth it would be a dramatic break with past practice.
    You’re pretty committed to the alternative when you also employ people to lie on your behalf.

    Not quite sure how they manage still to claim that their misleading the press was ‘inadvertent’.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/19/lawyer-apologises-for-saying-michelle-mone-was-not-linked-to-ppe-firm
  • TimS said:

    On the Scottish budget I think it’s good we have some differential tax rates starting to pop up. In my opinion we need much more tax devolution. Allow regions and nations to experiment, see what works.

    At the moment we have regional policies that are almost all decided from Westminster. This stifles regional competition.

    The trouble is like most other devolution it means we need to be tolerant of regional differences in outcomes, and postcode lotteries.

    This used to be done (to a limited extent) with local Council Rates. As you say, a Good Thing (provided people (especially politicians) stop wittering on about a "Postcode Lottery".
    Has anyone except a politician or the daily mail ever used the phrase “postcode lottery”

    Apart from *the* Postcode Lottery, obviously…
    I have sometimes heard it in vox-pop soundbites on news programmes, but you're generally right - it's a cliche beloved by politicos.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Well, they're scoring fast enough, but they're collapsing like a Post Office witness' credibility when asked a simple question.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.

    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    HMRC did some work a decade ago which suggested there is a big drop off after 50%

    One for me, one for the pot seems reasonable. More than that begins to feel unfair.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Never ceases to amaze me how many PBers are fussy eaters who have lived sheltered lives.

    It's depressing how many triumphalist middle-classes lefties are in thrall to the cult of foodism.
    I’m unsure what one’s personal politics have to do with liking food and cookery. I mean, I know @Leon is a bit of a Keir Royaleist these days but I’d hardly call him a leftie.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    isam said:

    On topic - November next year.

    Mr Sunak will use the LE as a test run for a June election. When the results are, ahem, not quite what he needs then he will panic and delay until November.

    It doesn't matter. Neither immigration nor oysters will save him

    My assumption all along had been that he would go late. Why wouldn't he? But then came the autumn statement, and we have plenty of evidence that Plan A is 2nd May.

    Sunak needs momentum - not just to try and recover the polls, but also to bowl out the lunatics in the five families / ReFUK. A push towards an election is the best momentum he will get.

    By March they will know that the Rwanda bill has bogged down. That's its purpose. Blame the Blob / Labour / Woke, run an immigration election, "the people's priorities vs Labour" etc and hope that Starmer trips himself up.

    Or, don't. Wait it out. Rwanda bogs down with no end in sight. 5 Families out for blood, Farage out for more. Polls not closing. And no cards left to play.
    And his choice is either to put down his one remaining chip in May, when it almost certainly loses, or bide his time until October when he even more almost certainly loses. The effect of people remortgaging trumps any tax cuts he can pretend to offer.

    Even if May leads to a smaller defeat for the party, October leads to a better, longer stay in No 10 for Sunak and a longer time in Parliament for many of his MPs.

    And that's his dilemma.
    The longer he drags it on the more damage is done to the party. His one wildcard is the Labour war against sanity Starmer.

    Its entirely possible that Starmer collapses that lead. Its big but its soft. May blew things up, could Starmer also falter? Especially when put under the right amount of stress?
    Sir Keir has fallen to bits a few times in interviews or under pressure; he doesn’t seem to be good answering questions and either stutters, goes completely blank or repeats the same sentence time and again as if the interviewer is being stupid by not understanding the first time

    But I can’t see that shifting enough votes to make it competitive, can you? The public hate the Tories, and his own voters don’t seem to like Sunak that much
    He could always hide in a fridge. That seems to work quite nicely during election campaigns.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Interesting point on the Wellingborough by-election, from @ydoethur favourite Sam Freedman and PB alumnus Meeks.

    https://x.com/alastairmeeks/status/1737236796566860174?s=46

    Forget Con-Lab swing. This is an excellent test of recent RefUK polling accuracy. You’d expect them to do well - better than polls in fact. Interesting to see.
  • So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    No, I don't care for athletics.

    Someone who wins a few golds, in multiple races, is more impressive but winning one race? Well done, its great going and they deserve the gold, but its not beating everyone else for being a successful sports person.
    Even athletics is less boring than cricket!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    No, I don't care for athletics.

    Someone who wins a few golds, in multiple races, is more impressive but winning one race? Well done, its great going and they deserve the gold, but its not beating everyone else for being a successful sports person.
    One race against the best 1500m runners on the planet. But if you don’t like athletics, you won’t appreciate that I guess.
  • TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I left nearly 2 hours ago to serve up my boiled goat and it’s gratifying to see we’re still discussing oysters.

    Not the laffer curve though. The funny thing is I spend much time in my day job arguing the ins and outs of high tax rat
    es and behaviour so I’m far from immune from the charms of laffer. I just don’t like it sprayed about as some kind of law of physics.

    On oysters, there’s a very important thing to know. Not only are they delicious (and the French gobble them on Christmas Eve to counter the sadness they feel at not having Carols from Kings), but they are perfectly matched wine made from Melon de Bourgogne, aka Muscadet.

    There is one vineyard, only one, in the UK that has ever attempted to grow Melon B, and it’s mine. First English Muscadets released probably in 2025 or 26. We are a few miles from Whitatable so I hope to sell much of it there.

    Second thing is on boiled goat. I decided this evening the family should have a pot au feu / bollito misto, so I wandered down to Deptford high street and picked up some Endy bits of beef, some goat scrag end and a few turnips, and boiled it all up in the pressure cooker with parsley, potatoes and little carrots. You should do this. Delicious. Yet strangely virtuous feeling.
    .

    That all sounds great, and fab, and I agree with 90% and I will buy your wine in Whitstable, but there is simply no way I am ever going to "Deptford High Street"
    Not manly enough for Deptford

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62693537.amp
    Deptford High Street is pretty incredible, so much to see, do and eat down there - South East London at its very best. We are so lucky here in SE14 to have both Deptford and Peckham right on our doorstep.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.

    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    HMRC did some work a decade ago which suggested there is a big drop off after 50%

    One for me, one for the pot seems reasonable. More than that begins to feel unfair.
    My effective tax rate is well north of 50%. Close to 54% when I last looked.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.
    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    I’m skeptical about tax rates as high as that for more libertarian reasons, but I think the Laffer argument against them largely dishonest, or deluded.
    The original Laffer Curve was to illustrate a philosophical point.

    Analytics were then done to estimate the shape of the curve (this is behavioural science so never precise).

    Politicians and activists have tortured it well beyond what it was ever intended to be.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    Okay. 🙂

    Meanwhile, tomorrow’s metro has Prince Andrew sweating over the Christmas holiday 💦
    The “I” has MI6 announcing water is wet - to borrow a phrase.
    Teaching children they can be born in the wrong body is harmful - Kemi Badenoch owns the Daily Mail tomorrow.

    This is just easily ignored guidelines from the government though, so tough talk and headlines like this is cheap sometimes, isn’t it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    Kerr should have been on the list and even speaking as a golf fan and a McIlroy fan he shouldn't.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    No, I don't care for athletics.

    Someone who wins a few golds, in multiple races, is more impressive but winning one race? Well done, its great going and they deserve the gold, but its not beating everyone else for being a successful sports person.
    Agreed. One of the great problems with athletics as a sport is that a winning 100m looks identical to a losing 100m etc etc. Ditto swimming. And longer races are just boring to watch: the London marathon being a case in point. Team sports are vastly superior spectacles.
  • isam said:

    On topic - November next year.

    Mr Sunak will use the LE as a test run for a June election. When the results are, ahem, not quite what he needs then he will panic and delay until November.

    It doesn't matter. Neither immigration nor oysters will save him

    My assumption all along had been that he would go late. Why wouldn't he? But then came the autumn statement, and we have plenty of evidence that Plan A is 2nd May.

    Sunak needs momentum - not just to try and recover the polls, but also to bowl out the lunatics in the five families / ReFUK. A push towards an election is the best momentum he will get.

    By March they will know that the Rwanda bill has bogged down. That's its purpose. Blame the Blob / Labour / Woke, run an immigration election, "the people's priorities vs Labour" etc and hope that Starmer trips himself up.

    Or, don't. Wait it out. Rwanda bogs down with no end in sight. 5 Families out for blood, Farage out for more. Polls not closing. And no cards left to play.
    And his choice is either to put down his one remaining chip in May, when it almost certainly loses, or bide his time until October when he even more almost certainly loses. The effect of people remortgaging trumps any tax cuts he can pretend to offer.

    Even if May leads to a smaller defeat for the party, October leads to a better, longer stay in No 10 for Sunak and a longer time in Parliament for many of his MPs.

    And that's his dilemma.
    The longer he drags it on the more damage is done to the party. His one wildcard is the Labour war against sanity Starmer.

    Its entirely possible that Starmer collapses that lead. Its big but its soft. May blew things up, could Starmer also falter? Especially when put under the right amount of stress?
    Sir Keir has fallen to bits a few times in interviews or under pressure; he doesn’t seem to be good answering questions and either stutters, goes completely blank or repeats the same sentence time and again as if the interviewer is being stupid by not understanding the first time

    But I can’t see that shifting enough votes to make it competitive, can you? The public hate the Tories, and his own voters don’t seem to like Sunak that much
    Repeating the same line over and over in poliitcal interviews is commonplace nowadays, to make it harder for the editor of the interview to cut the line out completely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nominative determinism strikes again.

    First it was Chris Pincher, now Peter Bone, should Rishi Sunak be worried about Greg Hands?

    There's always an exception to the rule, I give you James Cleverly.
    Michelle Mone
    Having watched the Mone interview two things struck me. Firstly a lot of Botox seems to havebeen involved.

    Secondly, and more interestingly, she says that there is no requirement not to lie to the media. Oddly, I actually agree with her. Parliament and law courts yes, you are not allowed to lie. But to the press?
    Although threatening the media when they were reporting the truth is a bit off…
    No law against saying that someone who lied so consistently simply can’t be taken at her word that she did nothing criminal, either.

    I once watched a TVshow about police interviews. One thing that always struck me was the point that if a suspect changes they’re story once, chances are they will change it again. What odds that Mone still isn’t telling the truth?
    If she is telling the truth it would be a dramatic break with past practice.
    You’re pretty committed to the alternative when you also employ people to lie on your behalf.

    Not quite sure how they manage still to claim that their misleading the press was ‘inadvertent’.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/19/lawyer-apologises-for-saying-michelle-mone-was-not-linked-to-ppe-firm
    Couple of cracking quotes, though.
    … The Tory peer said she “wasn’t trying to pull the wool over anyone’s eyes” when she repeatedly did not tell the truth about her involvement in PPE Medpro..

    Her brief:
    … “To the extent that I unintentionally misled your colleagues and title, I offer my unqualified apology. I am a devout Christian, and hold to the values of truth and integrity as faithfully as I can.”..
  • So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    No, I don't care for athletics.

    Someone who wins a few golds, in multiple races, is more impressive but winning one race? Well done, its great going and they deserve the gold, but its not beating everyone else for being a successful sports person.
    One race against the best 1500m runners on the planet. But if you don’t like athletics, you won’t appreciate that I guess.
    I'll watch athletics during the Olympics, but when you have 100m, 200m, 400m, 1500m etc all getting run then I struggle to get worked up about any one of those individually as being much more or less special than others - though 100m I instinctively feel is the heavyweight of those.

    He's a deserved champion, but I don't think a single athletic race trumps every other sporting achievement in the year.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.

    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    HMRC did some work a decade ago which suggested there is a big drop off after 50%

    One for me, one for the pot seems reasonable. More than that begins to feel unfair.
    If hmrc ever tried taking two pound out of every 3 I earned I would say fuck it and make money illegaly and wouldn't pay them a penny. If they can act like a bandit then they can fuck right off and so will I
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    ydoethur said:

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    Was it Nigel Mansell who had to endure the comment 'how could a man with no personality be Sports Personality of the Year?'
    Wasn’t it: sports personality Nigel Mansell is a contradiction in terms?
    Dangerous on here to suggest that driving in circles isn’t sport

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    No, I don't care for athletics.

    Someone who wins a few golds, in multiple races, is more impressive but winning one race? Well done, its great going and they deserve the gold, but its not beating everyone else for being a successful sports person.
    Agreed. One of the great problems with athletics as a sport is that a winning 100m looks identical to a losing 100m etc etc. Ditto swimming. And longer races are just boring to watch: the London marathon being a case in point. Team sports are vastly superior spectacles.
    I think middle distance is best in this respect. These days I’d say 1,500 and 5,000m. Long enough to have visible tactics but short enough not to get boring.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    I expect that, in the Commons, ‘economical with the actualite’ is for a while going to be replaced with ‘wasn’t trying to pull the wool over anyone’s eyes’.
  • Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.
    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    I’m skeptical about tax rates as high as that for more libertarian reasons, but I think the Laffer argument against them largely dishonest, or deluded.
    The original Laffer Curve was to illustrate a philosophical point.

    Analytics were then done to estimate the shape of the curve (this is behavioural science so never precise).

    Politicians and activists have tortured it well beyond what it was ever intended to be.
    The Laffer Curve absolutely is 100% real.

    Almost all claims (by left and right) about it are 100% bullshit.

    65% I suspect is far, far too high a tax rate as people engage in tax avoidance at that rate or emigrate if they can. They higher the rate, the greater the reward for engaging in tax evasion, if you have a moderate tax rate there's no point evading taxes so people pay it - if its an obscene rate, then people find evading it very valuable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    edited December 2023

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    No, I don't care for athletics.

    Someone who wins a few golds, in multiple races, is more impressive but winning one race? Well done, its great going and they deserve the gold, but its not beating everyone else for being a successful sports person.
    Athletics is the most democratic form of individual competition there is. Being the fastest in the world over 1 mile/1500m always used to mean something, particularly given our heritage in the sport.

    For the BBC to exclude Kerr is an example of them losing their way, and they surely wouldn't have done it if he scored more woke points.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    ydoethur said:

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    Was it Nigel Mansell who had to endure the comment 'how could a man with no personality be Sports Personality of the Year?'
    Wasn’t it: sports personality Nigel Mansell is a contradiction in terms?
    Dangerous on here to suggest that driving in circles isn’t sport

    Chapeau
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited December 2023
    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".
    "...at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing..."

    Being pedantic, this is not true.

    A theoretical collective state might take 100% of everyone's earnings in tax and distribute it through free housing, food, clothing, transport, entertainment, education, infrastructure etc. etc. (public spending). The population wouldn't stop working, producing, and earning albeit on behalf of the Revenue, because (presumably) there would be sanctions against any who did, as there are today.

    My point is a 100% tax rate would not result in zero tax revenue.

    For the avoidance of doubt, I do not advocate it for one moment.

    (The laffer 'curve' btw is a clever conceit of utter fiction - I suspect said 'curve' is much closer to a straight line.)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    So a footballer who didn’t win the World Cup wins SPOTY. Classic.

    It’s about “personality” in sport isn’t it?
    Not really - the ‘personality’ is a convenient way of saying sportsman/sportswoman.
    And getting England to a World Cup final and winning the Golden Glove in the process is one of the biggest English sporting achievements this year.

    Had another England team won the World Cup then yes that'd be a bigger achievement, but none did.
    SPOTY isn’t just England. Josh Kerr should have been on the list.
    Meh.

    I think what Earps did is more impressive that Kerr personally anyway, but its pretty moot.
    More impressive than winning the World Champioships 1500m? Really? Do you just not care for athletics?
    No, I don't care for athletics.

    Someone who wins a few golds, in multiple races, is more impressive but winning one race? Well done, its great going and they deserve the gold, but its not beating everyone else for being a successful sports person.
    One race against the best 1500m runners on the planet. But if you don’t like athletics, you won’t appreciate that I guess.
    I'll watch athletics during the Olympics, but when you have 100m, 200m, 400m, 1500m etc all getting run then I struggle to get worked up about any one of those individually as being much more or less special than others - though 100m I instinctively feel is the heavyweight of those.

    He's a deserved champion, but I don't think a single athletic race trumps every other sporting achievement in the year.
    But does any sporting achievement trump all the others? In essence the whole thing is flawed. Like comparing eras within one sport.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.

    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    HMRC did some work a decade ago which suggested there is a big drop off after 50%


    One for me, one for the pot seems reasonable. More than that begins to feel unfair.
    My effective tax rate is well north of 50%. Close to 54% when I last looked.
    The devil is in the details but that analysis informed the 45+2 rate as the revenue maximising top rate
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Byelection in Wellingborough.

    The Labour candidate is called “Gen Kitchen” and the LibDems have chosen a former police officer with the surname “Savage Gunn”. Looks like an interesting one….
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    These Scottish income tax rates really are something.

    Rest of UK - higher rate of 40% starts at £50,270.

    Scotland - higher rate is 42% and starts at £43,633.

    Scotland then has a 45% rate from £75,000 to £125,140.

    Rest of UK top rate (above £125,140) is 45%.

    Scotland top rate (above £125,140) is 48%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67759418

    Absolutely mental, the bastards will not get a penny from me, I will just stick more in pension and get tax relief and they will miss out on the VAT, spending etc. Morons could not run a bath
    Is that the sound of the Laffer Curve… laffing?
    Thing is, most of the time the laffer curve is (proven) rubbish. But when you have a devolved administration that’s in the same country as and right next door to - and defines itself by its difference to - another regime where the rate is very visibly lower, it does rather focus the mind.

    We see the same in the US with state taxes. But this is good. We need experimentation. If higher taxes mean better services then there’s a trade off for people to consider.
    You won't have any issue presenting that proof in simple and assimilable terms I take it.
    Laffer curve aside there’s definitely an iron rule - let’s call it the Lucky Guy curve - that states that when TimS posts something at a time of day LuckyGuy is online, it will be met within seconds by a withering riposte. Even when the original post is actually sympathetic to his world view.

    The Wikipedia entry on Laffer is decently balanced and useful: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=Case of Wellesley College and,not appear to support this."

    The original claim was made based on zero actual data. Subsequent analysis shows what is common sense: that higher tax rates raise more tax, unless they go completely bonkers and lead to behavioural change (usually emigration).

    Tax policy is complicated and there are no simple rules that can explain taxpayer behaviour. If there were we’d long ago have solved our fiscal problems.
    There are one or two things about the Laffer curve which have to be true. At 0% tax rate you raise nothing, and at 100% rate you will in the medium run raise nothing, while making people with any assets at all cross.

    As the same basically will apply to a 0.001% rate (there are exceptions) and a 99.8% rate then it follows that there must be a figure somewhere between the two which is the sweet spot. This could be called the Colbert point, after the man who pointed out that
    "the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing".

    It will likely very considerably between societies, in the real world - but I've seen a few academic papers which put it somewhere between 60 and 70%.

    Which would probably have given poor old Laffer conniptions. The great bluffer.

    Accords with my sense of it. I've always thought 65%. One for one, two for the pot. No modelling, just pure instinct.
    HMRC did some work a decade ago which suggested there is a big drop off after 50%

    One for me, one for the pot seems reasonable. More than that begins to feel unfair.
    I’d be happier with 50p at £100k than the current moronic system where they claim 40p but attack the PA. I agree that greater than that it gets rather imbalanced.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    What a start! Windies chasing 268 and first ball is a golden duck. 🤣

    Oh, hello Bart. I was just thinking I hadn't seen you in a while. Have you been taking a break or have I just failed to coincide with you lately?

    A pedant would point out that 'first ball is a golden duck' is a tautology.
    Been taking a break.

    Only partially tautological, you can have both a golden duck that's not the first ball of an innings of course, as well as a first ball of an innings that's not a wicket so not a golden duck either.

    This match has everything though, Windies making quick work of scoring now to stay in the match for now at least.
    Well welcome back.
    What you say is true - you can have a golden duck which isn't first ball - but you can't have a first ball wicket which isn't a golden duck.

    On another subject, I've just remembered mackerel. Mackerel is delicious. Though possibly it's the smoke you can taste and without that it would just taste fishy.
    And mackerel pate is delicious too, and very easy to make.
    What if the 1st ball is a no-ball and you're out to the 2nd?
    That would neither be a golden duck nor a wicket to the first ball of the innings, surely?
This discussion has been closed.