I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
It's also slightly odd given the different situations. Blair arrived as leader after two previous ones who had, by and large, done the dirty work of changing the party and reassuring lost voters that sanity had returned. In a time when people were much less sceptical about political PR, and politicians had a pretty captive audience when they made a televised speech or gave an interview. Starmer had and has a much trickier job, which almost inevitably leads to a more prosaic approach.
I'm not sure any politician today could achieve post-97 Blair enthusiasm, not least because after Blair did not live up to the hype (who could?), everyone is much more cautious.
Those who tend to engender a fandom (Boris, Corbyn) these days tend to do so by being completely marmite and cultivating adoration in some by breaking rules, while making everyone else recoil and think they're mad and/or bad for doing so.
I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.
There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.
Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.
I wish there were more markets around because I would be interest in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
What good news is there on the horizon for the government? Are they more likely to deliver cock ups or positives? Is Sunak a good campaigner? Are the party divided? Can they deliver a coherent message?
The answer to all those questions are challenging for the Tories. Bounceback to an extent is probable but it is very far from guaranteed.
This is a view I have been espousing for some time, None, but it seems to remain a minority one.
Sure, you can enumarate all the sound reasons why the gap should close as the GE nears, and nobody can dispute them. There remains however an equally strong case for the reverse happening. The gap is as likely to widen as wizen.
Electoral Calculus is a blunt instrument but it is not to be despised. It currently predicts Tory seats in a range between a high of 235 and a low of 42. Either is perfectly possible in my view.
You ought to be able to get decent odds at both ends, but the markets are few and somewhat illiquid. I'm on Betfair's seat bands, which offer some decent value, and watching out for Sporting Index to put their boots on.
I did not know the word "wizen" existed. I do now. Thank you.
It’s been a horrible few days. My family in the Catholic Church in Gaza city are reporting white phosphorous and gunfire into their compound. The bin collector and the janitor have been shot and their bodies are laying outside and remain uncollected…
The generators have also stopped working and so calls are v short now. No internet of course. They are beyond desperate and terrified. It’s been over 60 days now and it’s just getting worse and worse…
Update. Soldiers are at the gates and there was a fire when they hit one of the (already dysfunctional) generators. There is no water left. There are 300 people there. We don’t know why this is happening. Are they going to be expelled from a church just days before Christmas??!
I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.
There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.
Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.
I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
Is there pity?
There was pity for Major - decent guy surrounded by gits. And even broken Major was a decent stump.campaigner. Oh, and Britain was Booming.
Major got 30.7%. Why should Sunak do even as well as that?
There's a certain... tiredness... that comes at the end of an administration. People give up on governing, and instead choose to snipe at each other. There's greater enthusiasm for positions themselves for the post defeat shakeout, than for getting to win the current election.
That's the situation the Conservative Party is in now.
And once you get in that state, it's very hard to get out of it.
Now, is there much excitement about Labour? No. But there doesn't need to be.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I think the point is that Labour voters were enthused, Tories just stayed at home.
This time around, many Labour voters don't seem enthused either. Some on the left are actively anti-SKS.
Expectation management has long been one of Labour’s weak points, and they’re failing at it again. We’re getting to the stage where Blair 1997 becomes the benchmark. Anything short of that is a disappointment.
The Tories never set themselves such high bars. They just want power, and are happy when they get it (through they then seem to spend their time whingeing as if they’re still in opposition).
Have just realised that I don't need ANY paper records anymore
I was going to spend a boring Saturday afternoon moving all my files and papers into new, not-falling-apart folders and lockers. Then I looked at these crumbly documents and I thought: Why TF do I need a bank statement from 5 years ago? A water bill ditto? Contracts signed and sealed and delivered in the noughties? Any of it?
All my vital documents are online
99.7% of it has just gone in the bin. Remarkably liberating. My "files" now consist of one slender metal vertical in-tray with virtually nothing in it. How splendid
Of course, someone in that position should ensure that executors (or trustees in the case of one becoming what my solicitor calls 'incapax' in the Scots Law terminology) can get at needful documents, including stuff for tax as far back as is needed, including gifts over the last 7 years, selfemployed tax records ... lest one feel like Anabob on a ferry terminal with the bank links down and the last ferry of the day just about to depart.
Why gun down people holding a white flag . It seems as if the IDF are just out of control . Absolutely tragic that the 3 hostages who were so close to freedom were killed by their own side .
It’s even worse , one of the hostages escaped the initial gun fire and was begging for his life in Hebrew and they just executed him.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I think the point is that Labour voters were enthused, Tories just stayed at home.
This time around, many Labour voters don't seem enthused either. Some on the left are actively anti-SKS.
Expectation management has long been one of Labour’s weak points, and they’re failing at it again. We’re getting to the stage where Blair 1997 becomes the benchmark. Anything short of that is a disappointment.
The Tories never set themselves such high bars. They just want power, and are happy when they get it (through they then seem to spend their time whingeing as if they’re still in opposition).
IIRC Cameron was very much expected to get a majority after Brown's honeymoon faltered. He was pretty lucky that in falling short in Clegg he had a Lib Dem leader who'd sign up to much of his agenda.
Have just realised that I don't need ANY paper records anymore
I was going to spend a boring Saturday afternoon moving all my files and papers into new, not-falling-apart folders and lockers. Then I looked at these crumbly documents and I thought: Why TF do I need a bank statement from 5 years ago? A water bill ditto? Contracts signed and sealed and delivered in the noughties? Any of it?
All my vital documents are online
99.7% of it has just gone in the bin. Remarkably liberating. My "files" now consist of one slender metal vertical in-tray with virtually nothing in it. How splendid
Of course, someone in that position should ensure that executors (or trustees in the case of one becoming what my solicitor calls 'incapax' in the Scots Law terminology) can get at needful documents, including stuff for tax as far back as is needed, including gifts over the last 7 years, selfemployed tax records ... lest one feel like Anabob on a ferry terminal with the bank links down and the last ferry of the day just about to depart.
Yeah, fuck all that. If I'm dead I won't care, and my accountants will have all the needful bumf
Have just realised that I don't need ANY paper records anymore
I was going to spend a boring Saturday afternoon moving all my files and papers into new, not-falling-apart folders and lockers. Then I looked at these crumbly documents and I thought: Why TF do I need a bank statement from 5 years ago? A water bill ditto? Contracts signed and sealed and delivered in the noughties? Any of it?
All my vital documents are online
99.7% of it has just gone in the bin. Remarkably liberating. My "files" now consist of one slender metal vertical in-tray with virtually nothing in it. How splendid
Of course, someone in that position should ensure that executors (or trustees in the case of one becoming what my solicitor calls 'incapax' in the Scots Law terminology) can get at needful documents, including stuff for tax as far back as is needed, including gifts over the last 7 years, selfemployed tax records ... lest one feel like Anabob on a ferry terminal with the bank links down and the last ferry of the day just about to depart.
Yeah, fuck all that. If I'm dead I won't care, and my accountants will have all the needful bumf
Ah, that's different, you have an accountant. Excellent idea, very useful folk, accountants.
Why gun down people holding a white flag . It seems as if the IDF are just out of control . Absolutely tragic that the 3 hostages who were so close to freedom were killed by their own side .
It’s even worse , one of the hostages escaped the initial gun fire and was begging for his life in Hebrew and they just executed him.
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
Have just realised that I don't need ANY paper records anymore
I was going to spend a boring Saturday afternoon moving all my files and papers into new, not-falling-apart folders and lockers. Then I looked at these crumbly documents and I thought: Why TF do I need a bank statement from 5 years ago? A water bill ditto? Contracts signed and sealed and delivered in the noughties? Any of it?
All my vital documents are online
99.7% of it has just gone in the bin. Remarkably liberating. My "files" now consist of one slender metal vertical in-tray with virtually nothing in it. How splendid
Of course, someone in that position should ensure that executors (or trustees in the case of one becoming what my solicitor calls 'incapax' in the Scots Law terminology) can get at needful documents, including stuff for tax as far back as is needed, including gifts over the last 7 years, selfemployed tax records ... lest one feel like Anabob on a ferry terminal with the bank links down and the last ferry of the day just about to depart.
Yeah, fuck all that. If I'm dead I won't care, and my accountants will have all the needful bumf
Ah, that's different, you have an accountant. Excellent idea, very useful folk, accountants.
Can't believe I didn't do this before. I feel spiritually lighter
All that crap that's been cluttering up my chic-but-modest flat. Now I have more shelves for lovely things like Stone Age flints I found in Anatolia, or indeed books
I do genuinely think we could be on for a moment worse than 1997, with that exit poll saying the Tories have somewhere around 100 seats. And if that happens people will say it was always inevitable.
The anger in the Red Wall, the anger in the Blue Wall, 13 years of failure, cost of living, everything doesn't work, the Tories are likely fucked.
Sunak has passed the best moment for a GE. The new year is going to bring a huge deluge of councils declaring section 114s, universities going under, a stagnating economy, increasing unemployment, continued crap railways, utilities such as Thames Water going under… just really scratching the surface. Oh, and energy goes up again in the new year
Have just realised that I don't need ANY paper records anymore
I was going to spend a boring Saturday afternoon moving all my files and papers into new, not-falling-apart folders and lockers. Then I looked at these crumbly documents and I thought: Why TF do I need a bank statement from 5 years ago? A water bill ditto? Contracts signed and sealed and delivered in the noughties? Any of it?
All my vital documents are online
99.7% of it has just gone in the bin. Remarkably liberating. My "files" now consist of one slender metal vertical in-tray with virtually nothing in it. How splendid
Of course, someone in that position should ensure that executors (or trustees in the case of one becoming what my solicitor calls 'incapax' in the Scots Law terminology) can get at needful documents, including stuff for tax as far back as is needed, including gifts over the last 7 years, selfemployed tax records ... lest one feel like Anabob on a ferry terminal with the bank links down and the last ferry of the day just about to depart.
Yeah, fuck all that. If I'm dead I won't care, and my accountants will have all the needful bumf
Ah, that's different, you have an accountant. Excellent idea, very useful folk, accountants.
Nothing anyone can't do themselves, of course. But you need precision and patience, knowledge of the latest tax rules, and a basic level of comfort with numbers to do it.
So, sometimes easier to contract out for a few hundred quid.
Have just realised that I don't need ANY paper records anymore
I was going to spend a boring Saturday afternoon moving all my files and papers into new, not-falling-apart folders and lockers. Then I looked at these crumbly documents and I thought: Why TF do I need a bank statement from 5 years ago? A water bill ditto? Contracts signed and sealed and delivered in the noughties? Any of it?
All my vital documents are online
99.7% of it has just gone in the bin. Remarkably liberating. My "files" now consist of one slender metal vertical in-tray with virtually nothing in it. How splendid
Of course, someone in that position should ensure that executors (or trustees in the case of one becoming what my solicitor calls 'incapax' in the Scots Law terminology) can get at needful documents, including stuff for tax as far back as is needed, including gifts over the last 7 years, selfemployed tax records ... lest one feel like Anabob on a ferry terminal with the bank links down and the last ferry of the day just about to depart.
Yeah, fuck all that. If I'm dead I won't care, and my accountants will have all the needful bumf
Ah, that's different, you have an accountant. Excellent idea, very useful folk, accountants.
Nothing anyone can't do themselves, of course. But you need precision and patience, knowledge of the latest tax rules, and a basic level of comfort with numbers to do it.
So, sometimes easier to contract out for a few hundred quid.
I pay a lot more than that. So I reckon they can sweat for it
I do genuinely think we could be on for a moment worse than 1997, with that exit poll saying the Tories have somewhere around 100 seats. And if that happens people will say it was always inevitable.
The anger in the Red Wall, the anger in the Blue Wall, 13 years of failure, cost of living, everything doesn't work, the Tories are likely fucked.
Sunak has passed the best moment for a GE. The new year is going to bring a huge deluge of councils declaring section 114s, universities going under, a stagnating economy, increasing unemployment, continued crap railways, utilities such as Thames Water going under… just really scratching the surface. Oh, and energy goes up again in the new year
And that's without mentioning the NHS, energy bills and mortgages.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I think the point is that Labour voters were enthused, Tories just stayed at home.
This time around, many Labour voters don't seem enthused either. Some on the left are actively anti-SKS.
Expectation management has long been one of Labour’s weak points, and they’re failing at it again. We’re getting to the stage where Blair 1997 becomes the benchmark. Anything short of that is a disappointment.
The Tories never set themselves such high bars. They just want power, and are happy when they get it (through they then seem to spend their time whingeing as if they’re still in opposition).
So what?
Labour gets elected with a 30 seat majority.... Well, it might be "short of expectations", but it still comes with the keys to number ten.
This is of course one reason why casualties are so high (the other being Hamas using human shields).
I suppose the other difference is the people who did it will be punished while Hamas are always pleased to see civilians killed. But I wonder if there would be much reaction in Israel if the people concerned had been Palestinian?
The war seems to be hardening both sides and it’s not like they were soft to start with.
Does anyone care, any more? It just goes on and on
I've been watching a pro-Pali march go down the end of my street
I sense a weariness about them. The shouts lack gusto, the flag waving is all a bit effete
I thought those marches signalled End Times?
Or is that chubby racist morons piddling on minor war memorials?
I do genuinely think we could be on for a moment worse than 1997, with that exit poll saying the Tories have somewhere around 100 seats. And if that happens people will say it was always inevitable.
The anger in the Red Wall, the anger in the Blue Wall, 13 years of failure, cost of living, everything doesn't work, the Tories are likely fucked.
Sunak has passed the best moment for a GE. The new year is going to bring a huge deluge of councils declaring section 114s, universities going under, a stagnating economy, increasing unemployment, continued crap railways, utilities such as Thames Water going under… just really scratching the surface. Oh, and energy goes up again in the new year
And that's without mentioning the NHS, energy bills and mortgages.
Yup. I can’t see how there’s some magical uptick for Sunak. I find the obsession with the boats so bloomin bizarre when everything else is crumbling
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
There is little or no doubt that Labour will win, whenever the election is, swing of the old pendulum alone without any other factors. Cons were more or less routed in the local by elections this week.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I think the point is that Labour voters were enthused, Tories just stayed at home.
This time around, many Labour voters don't seem enthused either. Some on the left are actively anti-SKS.
Expectation management has long been one of Labour’s weak points, and they’re failing at it again. We’re getting to the stage where Blair 1997 becomes the benchmark. Anything short of that is a disappointment.
The Tories never set themselves such high bars. They just want power, and are happy when they get it (through they then seem to spend their time whingeing as if they’re still in opposition).
So what?
Labour gets elected with a 30 seat majority.... Well, it might be "short of expectations", but it still comes with the keys to number ten.
Any LAB supporter should absolutely grab that. It would be their 6th best result of all time and near enough guarantee a full 5 year term.
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’. To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Fingers crossed
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There are plenty of ways to protect the bottom end of the labour market against a pool of cheap labour. And have FOM.
This has freed up time for me to try my first smart plug
The Festive Excitement continues
Once you end up going down the smart home route... Well, say goodbye to your social life.
Suddenly, getting the latest automation working is more important than eating, sleeping, even sex.
ISTR Bill Gates had his home wired up so that house guests were pursued relentlessly wherever they went by loudspeakers playing their 'favourite' music. I'll bet that did wonders for his social life.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’. To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Fingers crossed
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There are plenty of ways to protect the bottom end of the labour market against a pool of cheap labour. And have FOM.
Wasn't it tax credits?
There's something else though. Ultimately people would rather be self reliant than protected if possible. Dependency is not ideal.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
There are at least two sorts of enthusiasm. There is general political enthusiasm, which is generated by things like hope, realistic clarity about a way forward, inspirational ideas and leadership, and particular single change making issues like independence or membership (or not) of the EU.
And then there is the enthusiasm generated by a leader + issues. Blairism, Reaganism, Trumpism (tragically), Thatcherism, Sturgeon (once upon a time) Boris (once upon a time). But there isn't a Heathism, Homeism, Brownism, Footism, or, crucially at the moment, there isn't a Sunakism, Starmerism, Yousafism, Daveyism or any other.
Sometimes you have both. At the moment we have neither and it shows.
For this reason while unlikely it would only take a ridiculous Labour left pile up/proof of uselessness/ or similar to change things around. Bet accordingly.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
I am not of the Labour family, never voted for Blair but I was around and this is completely correct. Blair was a phenomenon well before winning. The feel now bears no relation to the feel then. Even though I didn't vote for Blair and will vote for Starmer.
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’. To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Fingers crossed
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There are plenty of ways to protect the bottom end of the labour market against a pool of cheap labour. And have FOM.
Yes, don’t have it with countries with a massive discrepancy in wages where almost no British person wants to work
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’. To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Fingers crossed
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There are plenty of ways to protect the bottom end of the labour market against a pool of cheap labour. And have FOM.
Yes, don’t have it with countries with a massive discrepancy in wages where almost no British person wants to work
There are other solutions which are compatible with the European FOM rules. Essentially, tilt the playing field in favour of the locals, in the labour market.
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Question:
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’. To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Fingers crossed
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There are plenty of ways to protect the bottom end of the labour market against a pool of cheap labour. And have FOM.
Wasn't it tax credits?
There's something else though. Ultimately people would rather be self reliant than protected if possible. Dependency is not ideal.
The modern liberal model is that most people want self reliance and protection and if forced to choose would choose protection. The furlough scheme proved at least that the government thinks that is so. I should think about 5% of people want self reliance and not protection (a high proportion of whom will, strangely, come from wealthy families and are curiously averse to IHT) and about 10% want protection and have no interest at all in self reliance.
This has freed up time for me to try my first smart plug
The Festive Excitement continues
Once you end up going down the smart home route... Well, say goodbye to your social life.
Suddenly, getting the latest automation working is more important than eating, sleeping, even sex.
ISTR Bill Gates had his home wired up so that house guests were pursued relentlessly wherever they went by loudspeakers playing their 'favourite' music. I'll bet that did wonders for his social life.
I don't know that story, but when he and Melissa built their mansion in the '90s, he wanted electronic pictures on the wall that would show famous paintings, and which could be varied at will. Sadly, the display tech at the time wasn't good enough (probably still isn't), so he just used real artworks instead...
Now you need to (a) replace all your existing lighting with smart lighting, (b) connect your thermostat and (c) add a smart lock.
That's just the start mind. Then there are cameras. Mmwave sensors. Connected alarms.
Your life is now over.
I've got smart Heating, which is excellent
But lights are new. Just being able to walk into a room and ask for all the sidelamps to be turned on? OOOOOH
I believe I can remember literally this from some ancient TV show in the 1980s - Tomorrow's World or somesuch - "one day you will be able to walk into your home and ask a computer to turn on the lights, set the heating, put the TV on"...
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
I am not of the Labour family, never voted for Blair but I was around and this is completely correct. Blair was a phenomenon well before winning. The feel now bears no relation to the feel then. Even though I didn't vote for Blair and will vote for Starmer.
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
Sorry, who is making a claim for buzz about SKS? The only buzz is the incessant whine from @isam about a curry he ate in 2021.
As for a half-decent Tory Party, it doesn’t exist. Being decent in any degree was proscribed some time ago, which is why they poll worse than herpes for anyone under 60.
In the old days - in 1997 - you could positively hear a crackle of enthusiasm everywhere for Blair and the prospect of a new Labour government.
Now - I am not hearing this. Or maybe my hearing isn't as good now!
I think that's right. There is no real enthusiasm for Labour, even among Labour supporters like me. I think part of that is down to the party, and the leader: the lack of inspiring messages, the lack of money, the absence of charisma. But equally I just think we are living in pessimistic times. People are feeling poorer. The country is visibly broken. Politics has become shrill and meaningless. Nobody obviously has an answer. We're all tired of it all. If a Blair came along now the reception wouldn't be anywhere near what it was in 1994 - not least because Blair himself taught us to be sceptical of that kind of charisma. I continue to see a likely Labour majority, maybe a decent one, but no landslide. Labour will win because everyone knows the Tories need to lose, that's all.
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Question:
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
Probably makes no real difference. We can expect catastrophising in the media though which might favour Labour to a degree probably undetectable in polls.
This has freed up time for me to try my first smart plug
The Festive Excitement continues
Once you end up going down the smart home route... Well, say goodbye to your social life.
Suddenly, getting the latest automation working is more important than eating, sleeping, even sex.
ISTR Bill Gates had his home wired up so that house guests were pursued relentlessly wherever they went by loudspeakers playing their 'favourite' music. I'll bet that did wonders for his social life.
I don't know that story, but when he and Melissa built their mansion in the '90s, he wanted electronic pictures on the wall that would show famous paintings, and which could be varied at will. Sadly, the display tech at the time wasn't good enough (probably still isn't), so he just used real artworks instead...
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Question:
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’. To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Fingers crossed
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There are plenty of ways to protect the bottom end of the labour market against a pool of cheap labour. And have FOM.
Yes, don’t have it with countries with a massive discrepancy in wages where almost no British person wants to work
There are other solutions which are compatible with the European FOM rules. Essentially, tilt the playing field in favour of the locals, in the labour market.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
I am not of the Labour family, never voted for Blair but I was around and this is completely correct. Blair was a phenomenon well before winning. The feel now bears no relation to the feel then. Even though I didn't vote for Blair and will vote for Starmer.
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
Sorry, who is making a claim for buzz about SKS? The only buzz is the incessant whine from @isam about a curry he ate in 2021.
As for a half-decent Tory Party, it doesn’t exist. Being decent in any degree was proscribed some time ago, which is why they poll worse than herpes for anyone under 60.
Try reading all of the comments you are replying to Muggins
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I think the point is that Labour voters were enthused, Tories just stayed at home.
This time around, many Labour voters don't seem enthused either. Some on the left are actively anti-SKS.
Expectation management has long been one of Labour’s weak points, and they’re failing at it again. We’re getting to the stage where Blair 1997 becomes the benchmark. Anything short of that is a disappointment.
The Tories never set themselves such high bars. They just want power, and are happy when they get it (through they then seem to spend their time whingeing as if they’re still in opposition).
So what?
Labour gets elected with a 30 seat majority.... Well, it might be "short of expectations", but it still comes with the keys to number ten.
Any LAB supporter should absolutely grab that. It would be their 6th best result of all time and near enough guarantee a full 5 year term.
A majority of about 5 would be a good result in reality. If things get close it will become an anorak's paradise. It is very simple: If Tories lose about 40-50+ seats they lose complete control of events. Unless Labour win net about 115-124 seats they do not gain complete control of events. There is accordingly a huge area of result where no-one controls the narrative. Smarkets puts NOM as a 17% chance. I think it is a bit higher.
(The variation in the numbers is because of the unknowns of SF and other NI seats, and how they would act after the election. FWIW I don't think the DUP this time would back the Tories, or indeed any side).
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
I am not of the Labour family, never voted for Blair but I was around and this is completely correct. Blair was a phenomenon well before winning. The feel now bears no relation to the feel then. Even though I didn't vote for Blair and will vote for Starmer.
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
Sorry, who is making a claim for buzz about SKS? The only buzz is the incessant whine from @isam about a curry he ate in 2021.
As for a half-decent Tory Party, it doesn’t exist. Being decent in any degree was proscribed some time ago, which is why they poll worse than herpes for anyone under 60.
Try reading all of the comments you are replying to Muggins
But then I would run the risk of reading more of your posts, buggins.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I think the point is that Labour voters were enthused, Tories just stayed at home.
This time around, many Labour voters don't seem enthused either. Some on the left are actively anti-SKS.
Expectation management has long been one of Labour’s weak points, and they’re failing at it again. We’re getting to the stage where Blair 1997 becomes the benchmark. Anything short of that is a disappointment.
The Tories never set themselves such high bars. They just want power, and are happy when they get it (through they then seem to spend their time whingeing as if they’re still in opposition).
So what?
Labour gets elected with a 30 seat majority.... Well, it might be "short of expectations", but it still comes with the keys to number ten.
Any LAB supporter should absolutely grab that. It would be their 6th best result of all time and near enough guarantee a full 5 year term.
A majority of about 5 would be a good result in reality. If things get close it will become an anorak's paradise. It is very simple: If Tories lose about 40-50+ seats they lose complete control of events. Unless Labour win net about 115-124 seats they do not gain complete control of events. There is accordingly a huge area of result where no-one controls the narrative. Smarkets puts NOM as a 17% chance. I think it is a bit higher.
(The variation in the numbers is because of the unknowns of SF and other NI seats, and how they would act after the election. FWIW I don't think the DUP this time would back the Tories, or indeed any side).
The actual ideal outcome is a Lab/LD coalition with a majority of about 80.
Now you need to (a) replace all your existing lighting with smart lighting, (b) connect your thermostat and (c) add a smart lock.
That's just the start mind. Then there are cameras. Mmwave sensors. Connected alarms.
Your life is now over.
I've got smart Heating, which is excellent
But lights are new. Just being able to walk into a room and ask for all the sidelamps to be turned on? OOOOOH
I believe I can remember literally this from some ancient TV show in the 1980s - Tomorrow's World or somesuch - "one day you will be able to walk into your home and ask a computer to turn on the lights, set the heating, put the TV on"...
And here we are
What happens when there's a problem with your WiFi? Or when Putin hacks your lights and turns them on in the middle of the night? We have some fancy wireless programmable light controls in our living room installed by the previous owners. Unfortunately they've gradually stopped working properly. The parts can't be replaced as the tech is no longer cutting edge. At some point we're going to have to rip it out at great expense and hassle. I really wish they had just installed a normal wiring circuit with a normal set of dimmer switches.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
I am not of the Labour family, never voted for Blair but I was around and this is completely correct. Blair was a phenomenon well before winning. The feel now bears no relation to the feel then. Even though I didn't vote for Blair and will vote for Starmer.
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
Sorry, who is making a claim for buzz about SKS? The only buzz is the incessant whine from @isam about a curry he ate in 2021.
As for a half-decent Tory Party, it doesn’t exist. Being decent in any degree was proscribed some time ago, which is why they poll worse than herpes for anyone under 60.
Try reading all of the comments you are replying to Muggins
But then I would run the risk of reading more of your posts, buggins.
Now you need to (a) replace all your existing lighting with smart lighting, (b) connect your thermostat and (c) add a smart lock.
That's just the start mind. Then there are cameras. Mmwave sensors. Connected alarms.
Your life is now over.
I've got smart Heating, which is excellent
But lights are new. Just being able to walk into a room and ask for all the sidelamps to be turned on? OOOOOH
I believe I can remember literally this from some ancient TV show in the 1980s - Tomorrow's World or somesuch - "one day you will be able to walk into your home and ask a computer to turn on the lights, set the heating, put the TV on"...
And here we are
Congratulations. Every time you have a powercut you need to reboot your whole house.
Now you need to (a) replace all your existing lighting with smart lighting, (b) connect your thermostat and (c) add a smart lock.
That's just the start mind. Then there are cameras. Mmwave sensors. Connected alarms.
Your life is now over.
I've got smart Heating, which is excellent
But lights are new. Just being able to walk into a room and ask for all the sidelamps to be turned on? OOOOOH
I believe I can remember literally this from some ancient TV show in the 1980s - Tomorrow's World or somesuch - "one day you will be able to walk into your home and ask a computer to turn on the lights, set the heating, put the TV on"...
And here we are
What happens when there's a problem with your WiFi? Or when Putin hacks your lights and turns them on in the middle of the night? We have some fancy wireless programmable light controls in our living room installed by the previous owners. Unfortunately they've gradually stopped working properly. The parts can't be replaced as the tech is no longer cutting edge. At some point we're going to have to rip it out at great expense and hassle. I really wish they had just installed a normal wiring circuit with a normal set of dimmer switches.
They are just plugs tho. No integral wiring. That is the beauty of them: really cheap, plug and play, connect to the Wifi - just get rid and buy new ones if/when the tech becomes outdated
With smart heating, smart lighting, Alexa and Google, and Sonos, I've probably gone about as far as I can for now
And also getting rid of my entire household/office filing system, just dumping it in the bin. Twenty years of shit pointless paperwork. Huzzah
Now you need to (a) replace all your existing lighting with smart lighting, (b) connect your thermostat and (c) add a smart lock.
That's just the start mind. Then there are cameras. Mmwave sensors. Connected alarms.
Your life is now over.
I've got smart Heating, which is excellent
But lights are new. Just being able to walk into a room and ask for all the sidelamps to be turned on? OOOOOH
I believe I can remember literally this from some ancient TV show in the 1980s - Tomorrow's World or somesuch - "one day you will be able to walk into your home and ask a computer to turn on the lights, set the heating, put the TV on"...
And here we are
Congratulations. Every time you have a powercut you need to reboot your whole house.
Enjoy...
I've lived here 15 years minimum. Can't recall a single powercut, but hey, if there is one I will literally have to plug some things in
I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.
There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.
Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.
I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
The evidence so far is that SKS is dire when put on the spot about difficult questions. That may change but in a GE campaign that can be brutally devastating.
When put on the spot he can't answer a question. Starmer has never answered a single question Rishi has put to him at LOTOQs. He just asks Rishi another question instead of answering the one Rishi has asked.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
I am not of the Labour family, never voted for Blair but I was around and this is completely correct. Blair was a phenomenon well before winning. The feel now bears no relation to the feel then. Even though I didn't vote for Blair and will vote for Starmer.
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
Sorry, who is making a claim for buzz about SKS? The only buzz is the incessant whine from @isam about a curry he ate in 2021.
As for a half-decent Tory Party, it doesn’t exist. Being decent in any degree was proscribed some time ago, which is why they poll worse than herpes for anyone under 60.
The Tory Party is a convenient scapegoat for the decline of the British political class in general, going back well before 2016.
One reason why a change of government would be healthy is that it would make it slightly harder for people to pretend that the solutions are easy or obvious.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
People were annoyed at politicians for faffing about over Brexit, but something changed around September 2019; someone did something about it, and won handsomely
Yes he won a landslide, but nothing changed. He claimed an oven-ready for the microwave deal, but he served up a dog's dinner, which is quite appropriate, you could feed that pup he sold you!
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
I am not of the Labour family, never voted for Blair but I was around and this is completely correct. Blair was a phenomenon well before winning. The feel now bears no relation to the feel then. Even though I didn't vote for Blair and will vote for Starmer.
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
Sorry, who is making a claim for buzz about SKS? The only buzz is the incessant whine from @isam about a curry he ate in 2021.
As for a half-decent Tory Party, it doesn’t exist. Being decent in any degree was proscribed some time ago, which is why they poll worse than herpes for anyone under 60.
The Tory Party is a convenient scapegoat for the decline of the British political class in general, going back well before 2016.
One reason why a change of government would be healthy is that it would make it slightly harder for people to pretend that the solutions are easy or obvious.
Tories are still blaming Gordon Brown so you've got 13 years before you can pin this shit on Labour.
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’. To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Fingers crossed
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There are plenty of ways to protect the bottom end of the labour market against a pool of cheap labour. And have FOM.
Yes, don’t have it with countries with a massive discrepancy in wages where almost no British person wants to work
There are other solutions which are compatible with the European FOM rules. Essentially, tilt the playing field in favour of the locals, in the labour market.
How?
Well, the Swiss do it by requiring (a) qualifications for almost every job, and (b) making the purchase of health insurance mandatory.
Now you need to (a) replace all your existing lighting with smart lighting, (b) connect your thermostat and (c) add a smart lock.
That's just the start mind. Then there are cameras. Mmwave sensors. Connected alarms.
Your life is now over.
I've got smart Heating, which is excellent
But lights are new. Just being able to walk into a room and ask for all the sidelamps to be turned on? OOOOOH
I believe I can remember literally this from some ancient TV show in the 1980s - Tomorrow's World or somesuch - "one day you will be able to walk into your home and ask a computer to turn on the lights, set the heating, put the TV on"...
And here we are
What happens when there's a problem with your WiFi? Or when Putin hacks your lights and turns them on in the middle of the night? We have some fancy wireless programmable light controls in our living room installed by the previous owners. Unfortunately they've gradually stopped working properly. The parts can't be replaced as the tech is no longer cutting edge. At some point we're going to have to rip it out at great expense and hassle. I really wish they had just installed a normal wiring circuit with a normal set of dimmer switches.
Why do you think @Leon is so keen to repeat Kremlin propaganda?
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Question:
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
Hinders everyone.
Sorry, @Peter_the_Punter, I have only just seen your (entirely justified) objection to my misuse of the subjunctive earlier. I am ashamed of myself for having upset you so!
Now you need to (a) replace all your existing lighting with smart lighting, (b) connect your thermostat and (c) add a smart lock.
That's just the start mind. Then there are cameras. Mmwave sensors. Connected alarms.
Your life is now over.
I've got smart Heating, which is excellent
But lights are new. Just being able to walk into a room and ask for all the sidelamps to be turned on? OOOOOH
I believe I can remember literally this from some ancient TV show in the 1980s - Tomorrow's World or somesuch - "one day you will be able to walk into your home and ask a computer to turn on the lights, set the heating, put the TV on"...
And here we are
What happens when there's a problem with your WiFi? Or when Putin hacks your lights and turns them on in the middle of the night? We have some fancy wireless programmable light controls in our living room installed by the previous owners. Unfortunately they've gradually stopped working properly. The parts can't be replaced as the tech is no longer cutting edge. At some point we're going to have to rip it out at great expense and hassle. I really wish they had just installed a normal wiring circuit with a normal set of dimmer switches.
They are just plugs tho. No integral wiring. That is the beauty of them: really cheap, plug and play, connect to the Wifi - just get rid and buy new ones if/when the tech becomes outdated
With smart heating, smart lighting, Alexa and Google, and Sonos, I've probably gone about as far as I can for now
And also getting rid of my entire household/office filing system, just dumping it in the bin. Twenty years of shit pointless paperwork. Huzzah
Hope you shredded it first. If you don’t have a big enough shredder, borrow one from the SNP.
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Question:
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
Hinders everyone.
Sorry, @Peter_the_Punter, I have only just seen your (entirely justified) objection to my misuse of the subjunctive earlier. I am ashamed of myself for having upset you so!
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Question:
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
Hinders everyone.
Sorry, @Peter_the_Punter, I have only just seen your (entirely justified) objection to my misuse of the subjunctive earlier. I am ashamed of myself for having upset you so!
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Question:
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
Hinders everyone.
Sorry, @Peter_the_Punter, I have only just seen your (entirely justified) objection to my misuse of the subjunctive earlier. I am ashamed of myself for having upset you so!
...
Tres amusant
More of this, less of Brexit, in 2024. Happy New Year
Hamas are a bunch of disgusting, evil ***** and the sooner they are extinguished the better.
The IDF under Bibi's command are also out of control as demonstrated by their erroneous execution of three Israeli lads who has escaped Hamas. Two were killed instantly whilst waving white flags. The third who was merely wounded was finished off by IDF soldiers, despite orders not to fire by officers.
It the protocols of war were followed the three guys would be home with their families now. My children are of a similar age. I can't explain how I despise Netanyahu, Levy and Regev. The politics of Bibi is more important than the people. Israeli or Palestinian people.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
I don’t remember it like that
Me neither. Because what @AverageNinja is saying is rubbish
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
I am not of the Labour family, never voted for Blair but I was around and this is completely correct. Blair was a phenomenon well before winning. The feel now bears no relation to the feel then. Even though I didn't vote for Blair and will vote for Starmer.
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
Sorry, who is making a claim for buzz about SKS? The only buzz is the incessant whine from @isam about a curry he ate in 2021.
As for a half-decent Tory Party, it doesn’t exist. Being decent in any degree was proscribed some time ago, which is why they poll worse than herpes for anyone under 60.
The Tory Party is a convenient scapegoat for the decline of the British political class in general, going back well before 2016.
One reason why a change of government would be healthy is that it would make it slightly harder for people to pretend that the solutions are easy or obvious.
If there has been a decline in the political class generally then the party and government of the day is not a scapegoat but merely a standard issue goat. Scapegoats are in themselves innocent.
Yes, a change of government will help people to not pretend, but TBF Labour, for all its faults, is not promising the New Jerusalem in either popular or populist terms within the next 10 minutes. For this it deserves some credit.
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’. To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Fingers crossed
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There are plenty of ways to protect the bottom end of the labour market against a pool of cheap labour. And have FOM.
Yes, don’t have it with countries with a massive discrepancy in wages where almost no British person wants to work
There are other solutions which are compatible with the European FOM rules. Essentially, tilt the playing field in favour of the locals, in the labour market.
How?
Well, the Swiss do it by requiring (a) qualifications for almost every job, and (b) making the purchase of health insurance mandatory.
The first appears to be cultural shibboleth of the German-speaking people. The second is not impossible if we play with National Insurance.
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Question:
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
Hinders everyone.
Sorry, @Peter_the_Punter, I have only just seen your (entirely justified) objection to my misuse of the subjunctive earlier. I am ashamed of myself for having upset you so!
Tres amusant
More of this, less of Brexit, in 2024. Happy New Year
To be honest, even this forum is struggling to work up a sweat over Brexit anymore.
October. If the polls improve he'll want to give them time to improve more. If they don't he'll want to give them time to start improving. So either way he'll delay to October - but not beyond because then the risk/reward goes the other way. October. Confident call.
October means calling it in the first half of September.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
Ok yes I can see that too. Oct or Nov. Got to be around then. So Q4 at 1.75 looks decent value. I think I'll do that now.
Hamas are a bunch of disgusting, evil ***** and the sooner they are extinguished the better.
The IDF under Bibi's command are also out of control as demonstrated by their erroneous execution of three Israeli lads who has escaped Hamas. Two were killed instantly whilst waving white flags. The third who was merely wounded was finished off by IDF soldiers, despite orders not to fire by officers.
It the protocols of war were followed the three guys would be home with their families now. My children are of a similar age. I can't explain how I despise Netanyahu, Levy and Regev. The politics of Bibi is more important than the people. Israeli or Palestinian people.
Mistakes do happen in war, although the details you post look especially grim.
I was more struck by the account I posted above of hundreds holed up in a Catholic Church without water, the the bodies of the caretaker slumped outside.
Got no comments.
I deliberately omitted that it was posted by Layla Moran MP, who has been pretty level-headed throughout the conflict.
The Tories have spent the last 10 years pandering to the extreme right as an electoral tactic, and are still trying to do so. I wonder what it would take for them to realise what effect it is having in reality.
Why gun down people holding a white flag . It seems as if the IDF are just out of control . Absolutely tragic that the 3 hostages who were so close to freedom were killed by their own side .
It’s even worse , one of the hostages escaped the initial gun fire and was begging for his life in Hebrew and they just executed him.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
People were annoyed at politicians for faffing about over Brexit, but something changed around September 2019; someone did something about it, and won handsomely
Yes he won a landslide, but nothing changed. He claimed an oven-ready for the microwave deal, but he served up a dog's dinner, which is quite appropriate, you could feed that pup he sold you!
Isam ate the pedigree chum outright, and is now regurgitating it on here, some years later.
Hamas are a bunch of disgusting, evil ***** and the sooner they are extinguished the better.
The IDF under Bibi's command are also out of control as demonstrated by their erroneous execution of three Israeli lads who has escaped Hamas. Two were killed instantly whilst waving white flags. The third who was merely wounded was finished off by IDF soldiers, despite orders not to fire by officers.
It the protocols of war were followed the three guys would be home with their families now. My children are of a similar age. I can't explain how I despise Netanyahu, Levy and Regev. The politics of Bibi is more important than the people. Israeli or Palestinian people.
Mistakes do happen in war, although the details you post look especially grim.
I was more struck by the account I posted above of hundreds holed up in a Catholic Church without water, the the bodies of the caretaker slumped outside.
Got no comments.
I deliberately omitted that it was posted by Layla Moran MP, who has been pretty level-headed throughout the conflict.
Not a good enough excuse.
The boys were of no notable threat to the soldiers because they were waving white flags on sticks. Even if they had been Hamas fighters rather than Israeli hostages they had surrendered. They should have been taken as prisoners of war and not summarily executed. The IDF following Bibi's orders are out of control.
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
People were annoyed at politicians for faffing about over Brexit, but something changed around September 2019; someone did something about it, and won handsomely
Yes he won a landslide, but nothing changed. He claimed an oven-ready for the microwave deal, but he served up a dog's dinner, which is quite appropriate, you could feed that pup he sold you!
Isam ate the pedigree chum outright, and is now regurgitating it on here, some years later.
I voted Brexit and got it done. You lost and are still sobbing about it
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
People were annoyed at politicians for faffing about over Brexit, but something changed around September 2019; someone did something about it, and won handsomely
Yes he won a landslide, but nothing changed. He claimed an oven-ready for the microwave deal, but he served up a dog's dinner, which is quite appropriate, you could feed that pup he sold you!
Isam ate the pedigree chum outright, and is now regurgitating it on here, some years later.
I voted Brexit and got it done. You lost and are still sobbing about it
I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
People were annoyed at politicians for faffing about over Brexit, but something changed around September 2019; someone did something about it, and won handsomely
Yes he won a landslide, but nothing changed. He claimed an oven-ready for the microwave deal, but he served up a dog's dinner, which is quite appropriate, you could feed that pup he sold you!
Isam ate the pedigree chum outright, and is now regurgitating it on here, some years later.
I voted Brexit and got it done. You lost and are still sobbing about it
To be accurate, I simply left the country and now pay my tax dollah to the IRS. Many such cases!
Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.
If the headline reflects the article that is serious brass neck though.
Comments
I'm not sure any politician today could achieve post-97 Blair enthusiasm, not least because after Blair did not live up to the hype (who could?), everyone is much more cautious.
Those who tend to engender a fandom (Boris, Corbyn) these days tend to do so by being completely marmite and cultivating adoration in some by breaking rules, while making everyone else recoil and think they're mad and/or bad for doing so.
It’s been a horrible few days. My family in the Catholic Church in Gaza city are reporting white phosphorous and gunfire into their compound. The bin collector and the janitor have been shot and their bodies are laying outside and remain uncollected…
The generators have also stopped working and so calls are v short now. No internet of course. They are beyond desperate and terrified. It’s been over 60 days now and it’s just getting worse and worse…
Update. Soldiers are at the gates and there was a fire when they hit one of the (already dysfunctional) generators. There is no water left. There are 300 people there. We don’t know why this is happening. Are they going to be expelled from a church just days before Christmas??!
That's the situation the Conservative Party is in now.
And once you get in that state, it's very hard to get out of it.
Now, is there much excitement about Labour? No. But there doesn't need to be.
The Tories never set themselves such high bars. They just want power, and are happy when they get it (through they then seem to spend their time whingeing as if they’re still in opposition).
All that crap that's been cluttering up my chic-but-modest flat. Now I have more shelves for lovely things like Stone Age flints I found in Anatolia, or indeed books
So, sometimes easier to contract out for a few hundred quid.
Tho this might be the last year I do it full-fat
The Festive Excitement continues
Labour gets elected with a 30 seat majority.... Well, it might be "short of expectations", but it still comes with the keys to number ten.
Or is that chubby racist morons piddling on minor war memorials?
Suddenly, getting the latest automation working is more important than eating, sleeping, even sex.
That's certainly possible but leaves quite a lot to the chanciness of the summer silly-season stories. If the political/media narrative isn't that bad, he may well go then; otherwise, I think he'll call it from the Tory conference, hope for a boost off that, with a polling day of mid-Nov.
I already have a nifty Sonos system linked around the flat
I was there, the first time I voted and there was tangible enthusiasm for Blair and New Labour. I remember sitting in the waiting room of my Dentist in Dagenham Heathway watching Blair make a speech, (this might have been the 96 conference) and thinking “this is it, we have done it”
Maybe it’s because I am from a Labour family, and we read The Mirror, but having been about in 97 and now, to hear someone trying to make the claim that there’s a buzz around Starmer akin to the pre Blair years seems absolutely ludicrous
There's something else though. Ultimately people would rather be self reliant than protected if possible. Dependency is not ideal.
And then there is the enthusiasm generated by a leader + issues. Blairism, Reaganism, Trumpism (tragically), Thatcherism, Sturgeon (once upon a time) Boris (once upon a time). But there isn't a Heathism, Homeism, Brownism, Footism, or, crucially at the moment, there isn't a Sunakism, Starmerism, Yousafism, Daveyism or any other.
Sometimes you have both. At the moment we have neither and it shows.
For this reason while unlikely it would only take a ridiculous Labour left pile up/proof of uselessness/ or similar to change things around. Bet accordingly.
I JUST TURNED ON A LAMP FROM MY PHONE
A half decent Tory party would probably win the next election against Labour as it is now. Sadly there isn't one and there isn't going to be in time.
If Trump wins the US election, does that help or hinder Sunak?
That's just the start mind. Then there are cameras. Mmwave sensors. Connected alarms.
Your life is now over.
But lights are new. Just being able to walk into a room and ask for all the sidelamps to be turned on? OOOOOH
I believe I can remember literally this from some ancient TV show in the 1980s - Tomorrow's World or somesuch - "one day you will be able to walk into your home and ask a computer to turn on the lights, set the heating, put the TV on"...
And here we are
"Oi! Son! Turn the ******* lamp on!"
Not quite 100% reliable though. Yet....
The only buzz is the incessant whine from @isam about a curry he ate in 2021.
As for a half-decent Tory Party, it doesn’t exist.
Being decent in any degree was proscribed some time ago, which is why they poll worse than herpes for anyone under 60.
Being back what three words.
I continue to see a likely Labour majority, maybe a decent one, but no landslide. Labour will win because everyone knows the Tories need to lose, that's all.
We can expect catastrophising in the media though which might favour Labour to a degree probably undetectable in polls.
(The variation in the numbers is because of the unknowns of SF and other NI seats, and how they would act after the election. FWIW I don't think the DUP this time would back the Tories, or indeed any side).
We have some fancy wireless programmable light controls in our living room installed by the previous owners. Unfortunately they've gradually stopped working properly. The parts can't be replaced as the tech is no longer cutting edge. At some point we're going to have to rip it out at great expense and hassle. I really wish they had just installed a normal wiring circuit with a normal set of dimmer switches.
Enjoy...
With smart heating, smart lighting, Alexa and Google, and Sonos, I've probably gone about as far as I can for now
And also getting rid of my entire household/office filing system, just dumping it in the bin. Twenty years of shit pointless paperwork. Huzzah
https://youtu.be/QLhXVswy9-8?feature=shared
One reason why a change of government would be healthy is that it would make it slightly harder for people to pretend that the solutions are easy or obvious.
Maybe even February**
*This is not true
**Likewise
He's just keeping his smart home safe and secure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results
More of this, less of Brexit, in 2024. Happy New Year
Hamas are a bunch of disgusting, evil ***** and the sooner they are extinguished the better.
The IDF under Bibi's command are also out of control as demonstrated by their erroneous execution of three Israeli lads who has escaped Hamas. Two were killed instantly whilst waving white flags. The third who was merely wounded was finished off by IDF soldiers, despite orders not to fire by officers.
It the protocols of war were followed the three guys would be home with their families now. My children are of a similar age. I can't explain how I despise Netanyahu, Levy and Regev. The politics of Bibi is more important than the people. Israeli or Palestinian people.
Yes, a change of government will help people to not pretend, but TBF Labour, for all its faults, is not promising the New Jerusalem in either popular or populist terms within the next 10 minutes. For this it deserves some credit.
We have bigger fish to fry. Happy New Year.
I said season 3 of Picard was better than sex and it was.
I was more struck by the account I posted above of hundreds holed up in a Catholic Church without water, the the bodies of the caretaker slumped outside.
Got no comments.
I deliberately omitted that it was posted by Layla Moran MP, who has been pretty level-headed throughout the conflict.
Still haven't finished it. Utter rubbish.
NEW THREAD
The boys were of no notable threat to the soldiers because they were waving white flags on sticks. Even if they had been Hamas fighters rather than Israeli hostages they had surrendered. They should have been taken as prisoners of war and not summarily executed. The IDF following Bibi's orders are out of control.
Their presence wouldn't be missed
They are the one in ten
They don't like migrants to exist