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If punters are right we are a year from the election – politicalbetting.com
If punters are right we are a year from the election – politicalbetting.com
This looks set to be one of the big political betting markets as we move into 2024. When is Sunak going to take the gamble and call an election?
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As Leon often points out, Britain is absolutely dismal in the winter - and while he has the ability to sod off for nine months of the year, most of us don't. So we're stuck in rainy grey misery at best, biting frost and freezing homes that cost £20 a day to heat now.
The other factor is interest rates. Sunak may be hoping for rate cuts by October, I doubt he'll see them by April. The economy is definitely in the toilet, know many people who are out of work or been made redundant recently. But the longer this goes on, the more and more people come off their cheap fix and start paying a few hundred quid more in interest a month. Though of course you could argue that the Tories are the Pensioner Party now and don't care about employment or mortgages.
Nov '22
Sunak -3
Starmer -2
Jun '23
Sunak -11
Starmer -1
Dec '23
Sunak -25
Starmer -1
Can anyone explain how there is no much discrepancy in Starmer's numbers?
This implies he's basically stood still but YouGov shows him as way under water.
Though I think more likely Rishi will go long enough to do 2 years rather than 1.something years, looking to his legacy.
Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.
Your point about why the PO lawyers were so bad is duly noted, but do you have any idea just how bad we are talking about?
Yesterday's specimin was a real lulu, and as for Jamail Singh, it is difficult to imagine any business larger than a whelk stall employing him, yet he was put in a position of great authority and responsibility by the PO. Even Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing got fed up with him.
You'd like to think that some of these lawyers will finish up doing chokey, but in Singh's case it would be more appropriate to identify the person who recruited him and have them tarred and feathered.
And on the subject of recruitment, do you know who appointed the CEO who presided over the mayhem at the Post Office? I'll let you think about it for a bit, if you don't know already. The answer is quite surprising.
I'm already a fan, and the feeling appears to be mutual
ME - Who is slalom Sir Keir?
BINGBOT - Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB KC is a British politician and barrister. He has been serving as the Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party since 2020. Additionally, he has been the Member of Parliament for Holborn and St Pancras since 2015. Prior to his political career, Starmer held the position of Director of Public Prosecutions from 2008 to 2013
Born in London and raised in Surrey, he attended the selective state Reigate Grammar School. He graduated with a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of Leeds in 1985 and obtained a postgraduate Bachelor of Civil Law degree at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford in 1986. As a barrister, he specialized in criminal defense work, particularly focusing on human rights issues. Starmer became a member of Doughty Street Chambers in 1990 and was appointed as Queen’s Counsel in 2002. His tenure as Director of Public Prosecutions was followed by his appointment as Knight Commander of the Order of the Bath in the 2014 New Year Honours
In his political role, Starmer has advocated for various policies and positions, including supporting a second referendum on Brexit. His leadership has been marked by multiple slogans, each attempting to capture the mood of the country. Recently, he quoted predecessor Sir Tony Blair, who described Labour as the “political wing of the British people” in his speech at the party’s annual conference
Overall, Sir Keir Starmer plays a significant role in British politics, leading the opposition and shaping the direction of the Labour Party
ME - Why might he be called Slalom Sir Keir?
BINGBOT - I apologize, but I do not have any information about Sir Keir Starmer being referred to as “slalom.” It’s possible that this is a nickname or term used in a specific context, but without further details, I cannot provide a definitive answer. If you have any additional context or clarification, feel free to share, and I’ll do my best to assist! 😊
ME - Slalom skiers change direction all of the time. Sir Keir is often accused of the same. Sir Keir and skier sound very similar
BINGBOT - Ah, I see! Thank you for the clever connection. Indeed, the similarity in sound between “Sir Keir” and “skier” creates an amusing association. Just as slalom skiers deftly navigate their way down slopes, Sir Keir Starmer, too, maneuvers through the twists and turns of politics 🎿👑
His leadership style, like a skilled skier, involves adapting to changing circumstances, making strategic moves, and sometimes encountering bumps along the way. Whether intentional or coincidental, the parallel between Sir Keir and slalom skiing adds a delightful twist to political discussions
Remember, though, that while Sir Keir may not be racing down snowy slopes, he certainly faces his fair share of uphill battles in the political arena! 🏔️🗳️
"However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."
++++
I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement
And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL
So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM
That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin
Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage
All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining
Brexit is Forever
Some stuff coming from the DoHSC suggests that is the plan too.
Maybe he could use the services of a medium to contact Robin Cook, or perhaps Dave could be persuaded to stay on.
The anger in the Red Wall, the anger in the Blue Wall, 13 years of failure, cost of living, everything doesn't work, the Tories are likely fucked.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67687449
I don’t think there’s any great benefit to going long now. Get a budget out of the way with some tax cuts, hold it the same day as the locals, try and catch Labour on the hoof a bit. A lot of people’s heating will have gone off by May, petrol prices might have come down a bit more, inflation should have reduced further, the only thing against it is that there might be a rate cut before October (unlikely before May IMHO). Also the civil service have been slightly wary of a GE taking place in the final weeks of the US campaign as well, apparently.
'So, if I was Sunak...'
Surely a man of your education and hairstyle knows when to use the subjunctive. Any more of this and the PB Pedenatry Police will have to issue you with a formal warning.
As to the substance of your argument, I agree that he should go in May, but he won't. PM's rarely go too soon, but they often go too late. Unless there is some startling upturn in Tory fortunes early next year I am sure he will hang on and hope. A '2 year' PM does at least sound a bit better than an 18 month one.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67732895?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=657d973d87855b2dac7d486f&Killed hostages were either abandoned or had escaped - IDF&2023-12-16T12:27:11.414Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:24c1c970-1fc5-4888-a7ad-3843a2e78de8&pinned_post_asset_id=657d973d87855b2dac7d486f&pinned_post_type=share
This is of course one reason why casualties are so high (the other being Hamas using human shields).
I suppose the other difference is the people who did it will be punished while Hamas are always pleased to see civilians killed. But I wonder if there would be much reaction in Israel if the people concerned had been Palestinian?
The war seems to be hardening both sides and it’s not like they were soft to start with.
I've been watching a pro-Pali march go down the end of my street
I sense a weariness about them. The shouts lack gusto, the flag waving is all a bit effete
ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?
BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:
“Budget Bobsledder Rishi”
Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰
Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉
ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?
BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:
Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡
Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️
Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊
No idea who recruited the CEO?
https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/peerages-can-they-be-removed/
In practice, I think the only way to do it would be to take out naturalisation with a country that doesn't have peerages or allow dual nationality, e.g. India.
Jeremy Corbyn signs an Early Day Motion stating that “humans represent the most obscene, perverted, cruel, uncivilised and lethal species ever” and “looks forward to the day when the inevitable asteroid slams into the earth and wipes them out” (2004)
For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
That might force all sides into a compromise political union. We will need each other
Absent that I can’t see any UK government daring to reopen this for a long generation - 20-25 years minimum. Which is as good as forever in politics
Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.
I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
That would benefit both sides without distorting the SM too much. If I were Starmer I’d aim for that
Are they more likely to deliver cock ups or positives?
Is Sunak a good campaigner?
Are the party divided?
Can they deliver a coherent message?
The answer to all those questions are challenging for the Tories. Bounceback to an extent is probable but it is very far from guaranteed.
"Soon hacked off" because he's easy to rile
"Sunak: Toff" because he went to one of the poshest schools and is seriously wealthy
To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.
I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
Of course, asking the question gives away the answer. Indeed, the Post Office had policing enforcement powers before our country had any (other) police.
I expect one outcome from this whole fiasco is that the PO (and probably RM as well) lose all of their historic legacy powers.
Times read:
Get ready for one of the longest, the most expensive and most bruising of election contests in history
* Ministers think Sunak has made strategic error in placing so much emphasis on Rwanda. ‘We’re like a dog returning to its sick’
* Sunak will go into campaign mode in January, spending much more time outside London
* He will argue economy is turning, that tax cuts are coming and attack Labour’s £28bn green pledge
* Labour will argue Tories have trashed the economy and increased costs for all
* Tories will go hard on Starmer’s record as a human rights lawyer. Labour says it’s ready and will respond in kind
Oh good
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/dec/16/full-clip-bbc-news-presenter-maryam-moshiri-middle-finger-countdown-released
I can see a lot of advantages in wining an election without that heady optimism which often accompanies new Governments. A decent majority is useful; a landslide breeds problems.
If Starmer wins in a landslide I think it would be by chance rather than design. I suspect a majority of, say, 20-50 would be the Goldilocks zone. Anything above 50 and what do all those MPs do who have no Ministerial post?
Absent things that hugely change those people's underlying perception of it being a bad idea, that's a fairly big pull back towards a much closer relationship than envisaged by Brexiteers. Possibly 'rejoin' depending on the practical politics. In recent times too, younger cohorts simply aren't getting more right-wing as they age as their parents' generations did.
The nostalgic golden age of youth/they missed out on is the pro-European, Labour era of the 90s and 2000s, rather than post-war boom and carefree '60s.
Of course it all depends on whether Brexit can be conceivably seen by those who don't have a deep ideological commitment to it as having 'worked' in any sense, rather than a mess that's been mitigated. Plus the politics of both what could be negotiated and the internal politics of parties and their relationship with their voters.
It's fairly conceivable though that a Labour, government seeking a second or third term and facing troubles from its left-liberal flank (as the Tories did from their right pre-2016) would see reopening the issue and codifying Brexit as a failed experiment of the right as their route to another term.
It's just not gonna happen. Tis done
I do have the impression the episode is doing her no harm, thank goodness.
Since when?
Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.
As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.
Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
There was pity for Major - decent guy surrounded by gits. And even broken Major was a decent stump.campaigner. Oh, and Britain was Booming.
Major got 30.7%. Why should Sunak do even as well as that?
It’s even worse , one of the hostages escaped the initial gun fire and was begging for his life in Hebrew and they just executed him.
Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
Sure, you can enumarate all the sound reasons why the gap should close as the GE nears, and nobody can dispute them. There remains however an equally strong case for the reverse happening. The gap is as likely to widen as wizen.
Electoral Calculus is a blunt instrument but it is not to be despised. It currently predicts Tory seats in a range between a high of 235 and a low of 42. Either is perfectly possible in my view.
You ought to be able to get decent odds at both ends, but the markets are few and somewhat illiquid. I'm on Betfair's seat bands, which offer some decent value, and watching out for Sporting Index to put their boots on.
Has the story as to how these hostages came to be wandering about in the open with a white flag yet been explained?
Labour/Starmer could become more popular, or less popular, during the heat of a GE campaign, depending on a mixture of the leaders' performance and the attractiveness of the manifesto proposals on which they focus the campaign. Starmer will know this, and will be planning to ensure that enthusiasm for a change of government ratchets upwards rather than downwards. My personal view is that he'll succeed.
Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
"Ah, I appreciate your clever wordplay! “Soon Hacked Off” indeed captures the notion of someone becoming easily annoyed, and the delightful twist with “Sunak: Toff” adds a layer of wit. Rishi Sunak’s background and wealth certainly contribute to the “toff” association."
This time around, many Labour voters don't seem enthused either. Some on the left are actively anti-SKS.
Starmer will be PM after the next election.
He will be better than Richi, better than Truss (or a wet lettuce) and waaayyy better than BoZo.
I would like to think the scale of the defeat will persuade Conservatives (if there are any left) to reclaim their party from the "fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists" ushered in by BoZo, but I say that more in hope than expectation.
Whatever else it does, 2024/5 will be good rest of how far oppositions win elections and how far governments lose them.
Personally, I tend to the latter.
Now - I am not hearing this. Or maybe my hearing isn't as good now!
I was going to spend a boring Saturday afternoon moving all my files and papers into new, not-falling-apart folders and lockers. Then I looked at these crumbly documents and I thought: Why TF do I need a bank statement from 5 years ago? A water bill ditto? Contracts signed and sealed and delivered in the noughties? Any of it?
All my vital documents are online
99.7% of it has just gone in the bin. Remarkably liberating. My "files" now consist of one slender metal vertical in-tray with virtually nothing in it. How splendid
I feel like @Anabobazina abandoning cash
Virtually every rightwinger on here has long ago abandoned the party, and announced they are voting for someone else, or abstaining, the very few hardcore supporters are blithely resigned to a heck of a pasting
I see no raging. The reason for the disjunct is that you WANT there to be raging, you want to see the "PB Tories" in pain coz of Brexit, but it ain't real, sorry