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If punters are right we are a year from the election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited December 2023 in General
imageIf punters are right we are a year from the election – politicalbetting.com

This looks set to be one of the big political betting markets as we move into 2024. When is Sunak going to take the gamble and call an election?

Read the full story here

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    I still think it will be 2 May 2024. I may be wrong!
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    Second.
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    Is there no reason why we can't have a September election? I would have thought late September was a good time. The schools are bsck right at the beginning of the month these days so there is plenty of time for a campaign after the summer holidays and before the nights get too dark (people don't like being knocked in the dark). Thursday 26th September seems a good day to me. I know that an election in September, no one can remember.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,939
    If Sunak goes to the polls in 2024, he needs to do it while the weather is still good and before people start switching their heating on.

    As Leon often points out, Britain is absolutely dismal in the winter - and while he has the ability to sod off for nine months of the year, most of us don't. So we're stuck in rainy grey misery at best, biting frost and freezing homes that cost £20 a day to heat now.

    The other factor is interest rates. Sunak may be hoping for rate cuts by October, I doubt he'll see them by April. The economy is definitely in the toilet, know many people who are out of work or been made redundant recently. But the longer this goes on, the more and more people come off their cheap fix and start paying a few hundred quid more in interest a month. Though of course you could argue that the Tories are the Pensioner Party now and don't care about employment or mortgages.

  • Options

    I still think it will be 2 May 2024. I may be wrong!

    I *hope* it will be 2nd May. It would make sense to go then. But since when did this government care about sense?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    I still think it will be 2 May 2024. I may be wrong!

    I *hope* it will be 2nd May. It would make sense to go then. But since when did this government care about sense?
    I think it’ll be May. Some recent rumours seem to reinforce this.
  • Options
    I think it will be in May too.
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    Rishi Sunak's net favourability stands at the second-lowest figure since he became Prime Minister.

    Nov '22
    Sunak -3
    Starmer -2

    Jun '23
    Sunak -11
    Starmer -1

    Dec '23
    Sunak -25
    Starmer -1

    Can anyone explain how there is no much discrepancy in Starmer's numbers?

    This implies he's basically stood still but YouGov shows him as way under water.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    edited December 2023

    Is there no reason why we can't have a September election? I would have thought late September was a good time. The schools are bsck right at the beginning of the month these days so there is plenty of time for a campaign after the summer holidays and before the nights get too dark (people don't like being knocked in the dark). Thursday 26th September seems a good day to me. I know that an election in September, no one can remember.

    6 week campaign which would mean the early stages coincide with school holidays. I think the plan would be start in September for a mid October election. But May seems more likely.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,506

    Is there no reason why we can't have a September election? I would have thought late September was a good time. The schools are bsck right at the beginning of the month these days so there is plenty of time for a campaign after the summer holidays and before the nights get too dark (people don't like being knocked in the dark). Thursday 26th September seems a good day to me. I know that an election in September, no one can remember.

    I agree to the extent that if there is value in the betting, July to September is it. If a window arose he would go and go quick either July or September. Even assuming he must lose there is a big difference between OK (250 seats?) and ending up with 120 seats or something. Which is not impossible.

    Though I think more likely Rishi will go long enough to do 2 years rather than 1.something years, looking to his legacy.

  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    algarkirk said:

    Is there no reason why we can't have a September election? I would have thought late September was a good time. The schools are bsck right at the beginning of the month these days so there is plenty of time for a campaign after the summer holidays and before the nights get too dark (people don't like being knocked in the dark). Thursday 26th September seems a good day to me. I know that an election in September, no one can remember.

    I agree to the extent that if there is value in the betting, July to September is it. If a window arose he would go and go quick either July or September. Even assuming he must lose there is a big difference between OK (250 seats?) and ending up with 120 seats or something. Which is not impossible.

    Though I think more likely Rishi will go long enough to do 2 years rather than 1.something years, looking to his legacy.

    When Truss comes back does her previous service get added to her new incumbency or does she start from scratch? What happened with Churchill?
  • Options
    Sad face, brass neck.



    Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    Speaking as an employment lawyer Rishi can carry on as long as he wants. Never been busier with redundancies.
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    January 2025. The latest it can be. All the reasons people advance for avoiding winter actually play to the Conservatives' advantage.
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    The Local Elections will be held in May, and the Tories are going to get slaughtered. All the anti-Government sentiment of the last few years is going to boil over, and even the mildest critics will use the (comparatively unimportant) local elections to send a message to the Government. That's going to lead to lots of bad headlines, and even lower morale for the Tory foot-soldiers (who by all accounts are ageing rapidly.) So, if I was Sunak, I would try to avoid holding an election after such a Bad News Event. Rather, i would try to head it off and hold the General Election on the same day. The increased turnout, and slight swingback to the party caused by the General Election campaign, might even help some local Tory councillors to get re-elected. So, it's 2nd May for me. It's going to be bad, but it will be even worse if delayed any longer, which will just look like an act of desperation.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,293
    edited December 2023
    FPT @DougSeal

    Your point about why the PO lawyers were so bad is duly noted, but do you have any idea just how bad we are talking about?

    Yesterday's specimin was a real lulu, and as for Jamail Singh, it is difficult to imagine any business larger than a whelk stall employing him, yet he was put in a position of great authority and responsibility by the PO. Even Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing got fed up with him.

    You'd like to think that some of these lawyers will finish up doing chokey, but in Singh's case it would be more appropriate to identify the person who recruited him and have them tarred and feathered.


    And on the subject of recruitment, do you know who appointed the CEO who presided over the mayhem at the Post Office? I'll let you think about it for a bit, if you don't know already. The answer is quite surprising.
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    I've just had my only, very brief conversation with Bing's Copilot Chat

    I'm already a fan, and the feeling appears to be mutual

    ME - Who is slalom Sir Keir?

    BINGBOT - Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB KC is a British politician and barrister. He has been serving as the Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party since 2020. Additionally, he has been the Member of Parliament for Holborn and St Pancras since 2015. Prior to his political career, Starmer held the position of Director of Public Prosecutions from 2008 to 2013

    Born in London and raised in Surrey, he attended the selective state Reigate Grammar School. He graduated with a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of Leeds in 1985 and obtained a postgraduate Bachelor of Civil Law degree at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford in 1986. As a barrister, he specialized in criminal defense work, particularly focusing on human rights issues. Starmer became a member of Doughty Street Chambers in 1990 and was appointed as Queen’s Counsel in 2002. His tenure as Director of Public Prosecutions was followed by his appointment as Knight Commander of the Order of the Bath in the 2014 New Year Honours

    In his political role, Starmer has advocated for various policies and positions, including supporting a second referendum on Brexit. His leadership has been marked by multiple slogans, each attempting to capture the mood of the country. Recently, he quoted predecessor Sir Tony Blair, who described Labour as the “political wing of the British people” in his speech at the party’s annual conference

    Overall, Sir Keir Starmer plays a significant role in British politics, leading the opposition and shaping the direction of the Labour Party

    ME - Why might he be called Slalom Sir Keir?

    BINGBOT - I apologize, but I do not have any information about Sir Keir Starmer being referred to as “slalom.” It’s possible that this is a nickname or term used in a specific context, but without further details, I cannot provide a definitive answer. If you have any additional context or clarification, feel free to share, and I’ll do my best to assist! 😊

    ME - Slalom skiers change direction all of the time. Sir Keir is often accused of the same. Sir Keir and skier sound very similar

    BINGBOT - Ah, I see! Thank you for the clever connection. Indeed, the similarity in sound between “Sir Keir” and “skier” creates an amusing association. Just as slalom skiers deftly navigate their way down slopes, Sir Keir Starmer, too, maneuvers through the twists and turns of politics 🎿👑

    His leadership style, like a skilled skier, involves adapting to changing circumstances, making strategic moves, and sometimes encountering bumps along the way. Whether intentional or coincidental, the parallel between Sir Keir and slalom skiing adds a delightful twist to political discussions

    Remember, though, that while Sir Keir may not be racing down snowy slopes, he certainly faces his fair share of uphill battles in the political arena! 🏔️🗳️
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    edited December 2023
    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    The Local Elections will be held in May, and the Tories are going to get slaughtered. All the anti-Government sentiment of the last few years is going to boil over, and even the mildest critics will use the (comparatively unimportant) local elections to send a message to the Government. That's going to lead to lots of bad headlines, and even lower morale for the Tory foot-soldiers (who by all accounts are ageing rapidly.) So, if I was Sunak, I would try to avoid holding an election after such a Bad News Event. Rather, i would try to head it off and hold the General Election on the same day. The increased turnout, and slight swingback to the party caused by the General Election campaign, might even help some local Tory councillors to get re-elected. So, it's 2nd May for me. It's going to be bad, but it will be even worse if delayed any longer, which will just look like an act of desperation.

    I think so too, and avoids the risk of a summer defenestration by panicking backbenchers.

    Some stuff coming from the DoHSC suggests that is the plan too.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the EU and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    He will need a good Foreign Sec, and I'm not sure there are any obvious candidates.

    Maybe he could use the services of a medium to contact Robin Cook, or perhaps Dave could be persuaded to stay on.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    I've just had my only, very brief conversation with Bing's Copilot Chat

    I'm already a fan, and the feeling appears to be mutual

    ME - Who is slalom Sir Keir?

    BINGBOT - Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB KC is a British politician and barrister. He has been serving as the Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party since 2020. Additionally, he has been the Member of Parliament for Holborn and St Pancras since 2015. Prior to his political career, Starmer held the position of Director of Public Prosecutions from 2008 to 2013

    Born in London and raised in Surrey, he attended the selective state Reigate Grammar School. He graduated with a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of Leeds in 1985 and obtained a postgraduate Bachelor of Civil Law degree at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford in 1986. As a barrister, he specialized in criminal defense work, particularly focusing on human rights issues. Starmer became a member of Doughty Street Chambers in 1990 and was appointed as Queen’s Counsel in 2002. His tenure as Director of Public Prosecutions was followed by his appointment as Knight Commander of the Order of the Bath in the 2014 New Year Honours

    In his political role, Starmer has advocated for various policies and positions, including supporting a second referendum on Brexit. His leadership has been marked by multiple slogans, each attempting to capture the mood of the country. Recently, he quoted predecessor Sir Tony Blair, who described Labour as the “political wing of the British people” in his speech at the party’s annual conference

    Overall, Sir Keir Starmer plays a significant role in British politics, leading the opposition and shaping the direction of the Labour Party

    ME - Why might he be called Slalom Sir Keir?

    BINGBOT - I apologize, but I do not have any information about Sir Keir Starmer being referred to as “slalom.” It’s possible that this is a nickname or term used in a specific context, but without further details, I cannot provide a definitive answer. If you have any additional context or clarification, feel free to share, and I’ll do my best to assist! 😊

    ME - Slalom skiers change direction all of the time. Sir Keir is often accused of the same. Sir Keir and skier sound very similar

    BINGBOT - Ah, I see! Thank you for the clever connection. Indeed, the similarity in sound between “Sir Keir” and “skier” creates an amusing association. Just as slalom skiers deftly navigate their way down slopes, Sir Keir Starmer, too, maneuvers through the twists and turns of politics 🎿👑

    His leadership style, like a skilled skier, involves adapting to changing circumstances, making strategic moves, and sometimes encountering bumps along the way. Whether intentional or coincidental, the parallel between Sir Keir and slalom skiing adds a delightful twist to political discussions

    Remember, though, that while Sir Keir may not be racing down snowy slopes, he certainly faces his fair share of uphill battles in the political arena! 🏔️🗳️

    Ask it to suggest and explain suitable nicknames for Sunak, Davey and Yousaf.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Foxy said:

    The Local Elections will be held in May, and the Tories are going to get slaughtered. All the anti-Government sentiment of the last few years is going to boil over, and even the mildest critics will use the (comparatively unimportant) local elections to send a message to the Government. That's going to lead to lots of bad headlines, and even lower morale for the Tory foot-soldiers (who by all accounts are ageing rapidly.) So, if I was Sunak, I would try to avoid holding an election after such a Bad News Event. Rather, i would try to head it off and hold the General Election on the same day. The increased turnout, and slight swingback to the party caused by the General Election campaign, might even help some local Tory councillors to get re-elected. So, it's 2nd May for me. It's going to be bad, but it will be even worse if delayed any longer, which will just look like an act of desperation.

    I think so too, and avoids the risk of a summer defenestration by panicking backbenchers.

    Some stuff coming from the DoHSC suggests that is the plan too.
    And HMT.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359

    Sad face, brass neck.



    Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.

    Very thankful for her £66 million it appears.
  • Options
    I do genuinely think we could be on for a moment worse than 1997, with that exit poll saying the Tories have somewhere around 100 seats. And if that happens people will say it was always inevitable.

    The anger in the Red Wall, the anger in the Blue Wall, 13 years of failure, cost of living, everything doesn't work, the Tories are likely fucked.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    BBC News - Ukraine war: How TikTok fakes pushed Russian lies to millions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67687449

  • Options
    I think it will be May too - assuming that Sunak does not try and bounce everyone into a snap election in early spring on something like Rwanda (which can’t be ruled out IMHO).

    I don’t think there’s any great benefit to going long now. Get a budget out of the way with some tax cuts, hold it the same day as the locals, try and catch Labour on the hoof a bit. A lot of people’s heating will have gone off by May, petrol prices might have come down a bit more, inflation should have reduced further, the only thing against it is that there might be a rate cut before October (unlikely before May IMHO). Also the civil service have been slightly wary of a GE taking place in the final weeks of the US campaign as well, apparently.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.
  • Options

    The Local Elections will be held in May, and the Tories are going to get slaughtered. All the anti-Government sentiment of the last few years is going to boil over, and even the mildest critics will use the (comparatively unimportant) local elections to send a message to the Government. That's going to lead to lots of bad headlines, and even lower morale for the Tory foot-soldiers (who by all accounts are ageing rapidly.) So, if I was Sunak, I would try to avoid holding an election after such a Bad News Event. Rather, i would try to head it off and hold the General Election on the same day. The increased turnout, and slight swingback to the party caused by the General Election campaign, might even help some local Tory councillors to get re-elected. So, it's 2nd May for me. It's going to be bad, but it will be even worse if delayed any longer, which will just look like an act of desperation.

    You have shocked me, Augustus.

    'So, if I was Sunak...'

    Surely a man of your education and hairstyle knows when to use the subjunctive. Any more of this and the PB Pedenatry Police will have to issue you with a formal warning.

    As to the substance of your argument, I agree that he should go in May, but he won't. PM's rarely go too soon, but they often go too late. Unless there is some startling upturn in Tory fortunes early next year I am sure he will hang on and hope. A '2 year' PM does at least sound a bit better than an 18 month one.
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    I think it will probably be a 30/40 Con-Lab split, or there abouts. I suspect in a campaign, Labour will lose a few points. Not though to stop them being elected by a healthy majority, mind.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    I see the Israelis have done what the su do best and shot at everything that moves, killing three hostages:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67732895?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=657d973d87855b2dac7d486f&Killed hostages were either abandoned or had escaped - IDF&2023-12-16T12:27:11.414Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:24c1c970-1fc5-4888-a7ad-3843a2e78de8&pinned_post_asset_id=657d973d87855b2dac7d486f&pinned_post_type=share

    This is of course one reason why casualties are so high (the other being Hamas using human shields).

    I suppose the other difference is the people who did it will be punished while Hamas are always pleased to see civilians killed. But I wonder if there would be much reaction in Israel if the people concerned had been Palestinian?

    The war seems to be hardening both sides and it’s not like they were soft to start with.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    ydoethur said:

    I see the Israelis have done what the su do best and shot at everything that moves, killing three hostages:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67732895?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=657d973d87855b2dac7d486f&Killed hostages were either abandoned or had escaped - IDF&2023-12-16T12:27:11.414Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:24c1c970-1fc5-4888-a7ad-3843a2e78de8&pinned_post_asset_id=657d973d87855b2dac7d486f&pinned_post_type=share

    This is of course one reason why casualties are so high (the other being Hamas using human shields).

    I suppose the other difference is the people who did it will be punished while Hamas are always pleased to see civilians killed. But I wonder if there would be much reaction in Israel if the people concerned had been Palestinian?

    The war seems to be hardening both sides and it’s not like they were soft to start with.

    Does anyone care, any more? It just goes on and on

    I've been watching a pro-Pali march go down the end of my street

    I sense a weariness about them. The shouts lack gusto, the flag waving is all a bit effete
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    I think it will probably be a 30/40 Con-Lab split, or there abouts. I suspect in a campaign, Labour will lose a few points. Not though to stop them being elected by a healthy majority, mind.
    Is it not possible Sunak loses more points? He seems to be me likely to come across very badly if his recent Commons outings have been anything to go on. If he gets angry and wound up, it's not playful like Johnson, it's just nasty. And SKS is quite good at that.
  • Options
    TimS said:


    ME - Why might he be called Slalom Sir Keir?

    BINGBOT - I apologize, but I do not have any information about Sir Keir Starmer being referred to as “slalom.” It’s possible that this is a nickname or term used in a specific context, but without further details, I cannot provide a definitive answer. If you have any additional context or clarification, feel free to share, and I’ll do my best to assist! 😊

    ME - Slalom skiers change direction all of the time. Sir Keir is often accused of the same. Sir Keir and skier sound very similar

    BINGBOT - Ah, I see! Thank you for the clever connection. Indeed, the similarity in sound between “Sir Keir” and “skier” creates an amusing association. Just as slalom skiers deftly navigate their way down slopes, Sir Keir Starmer, too, maneuvers through the twists and turns of politics 🎿👑

    His leadership style, like a skilled skier, involves adapting to changing circumstances, making strategic moves, and sometimes encountering bumps along the way. Whether intentional or coincidental, the parallel between Sir Keir and slalom skiing adds a delightful twist to political discussions

    Remember, though, that while Sir Keir may not be racing down snowy slopes, he certainly faces his fair share of uphill battles in the political arena! 🏔️🗳️

    Ask it to suggest and explain suitable nicknames for Sunak, Davey and Yousaf.
    It's not very good at them..

    ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:

    “Budget Bobsledder Rishi”

    Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰

    Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉

    ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:

    Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡

    Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️

    Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635

    Sad face, brass neck.



    Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.

    Very thankful for her £66 million it appears.
    Isn't she an ex-Baroness anyway? Not been keeping up with all this soap opera but I distinctly remember her wanting to extract herself from the HoL.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133

    FPT @DougSeal

    Your point about why the PO lawyers were so bad is duly noted, but do you have any idea just how bad we are talking about?

    Yesterday's specimin was a real lulu, and as for Jamail Singh, it is difficult to imagine any business larger than a whelk stall employing him, yet he was put in a position of great authority and responsibility by the PO. Even Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing got fed up with him.

    You'd like to think that some of these lawyers will finish up doing chokey, but in Singh's case it would be more appropriate to identify the person who recruited him and have them tarred and feathered.


    And on the subject of recruitment, do you know who appointed the CEO who presided over the mayhem at the Post Office? I'll let you think about it for a bit, if you don't know already. The answer is quite surprising.

    Private prosecutions should not be a thing. A civil litigation mindset (which is what all most law firms do) in a criminal prosecution brings about these outcomes. It’s a holdover from when all prosecutions were in essence private. The Met Police, when established, used a private law firm to do the work the CPS now does before bringing it in house, and then farming it back out to the CPS in the 80s, but it’s a holdover that is anachronistic at best. Should be abolished.

    No idea who recruited the CEO?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359
    Carnyx said:

    Sad face, brass neck.



    Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.

    Very thankful for her £66 million it appears.
    Isn't she an ex-Baroness anyway? Not been keeping up with all this soap opera but I distinctly remember her wanting to extract herself from the HoL.
    She's staying away from the HOL but you remain a Peer even if not a sitting/working Peer afaik.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Foxy said:

    BBC News - Ukraine war: How TikTok fakes pushed Russian lies to millions
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67687449

    Russians operatives using Chinese technology to spread disinformation in the West, who’d have thought it?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,359

    TimS said:


    ME - Why might he be called Slalom Sir Keir?

    BINGBOT - I apologize, but I do not have any information about Sir Keir Starmer being referred to as “slalom.” It’s possible that this is a nickname or term used in a specific context, but without further details, I cannot provide a definitive answer. If you have any additional context or clarification, feel free to share, and I’ll do my best to assist! 😊

    ME - Slalom skiers change direction all of the time. Sir Keir is often accused of the same. Sir Keir and skier sound very similar

    BINGBOT - Ah, I see! Thank you for the clever connection. Indeed, the similarity in sound between “Sir Keir” and “skier” creates an amusing association. Just as slalom skiers deftly navigate their way down slopes, Sir Keir Starmer, too, maneuvers through the twists and turns of politics 🎿👑

    His leadership style, like a skilled skier, involves adapting to changing circumstances, making strategic moves, and sometimes encountering bumps along the way. Whether intentional or coincidental, the parallel between Sir Keir and slalom skiing adds a delightful twist to political discussions

    Remember, though, that while Sir Keir may not be racing down snowy slopes, he certainly faces his fair share of uphill battles in the political arena! 🏔️🗳️

    Ask it to suggest and explain suitable nicknames for Sunak, Davey and Yousaf.
    It's not very good at them..

    ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:

    “Budget Bobsledder Rishi”

    Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰

    Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉

    ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:

    Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡

    Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️

    Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊
    To be fair, as a wannabe American, Sunak would probably be quite thrilled to be assigned 'bobsledder' as a nickname.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,969

    Sad face, brass neck.



    Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.

    I doubt whether Kuenssberg will put much pressure on he fellow Conservative and Unionist Mone.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Carnyx said:

    Sad face, brass neck.



    Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.

    Very thankful for her £66 million it appears.
    Isn't she an ex-Baroness anyway? Not been keeping up with all this soap opera but I distinctly remember her wanting to extract herself from the HoL.
    She's staying away from the HOL but you remain a Peer even if not a sitting/working Peer afaik.
    You can resign from the Lords or be expelled from it but it isn't easy to renounce a life peerage in its entirety.

    https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/peerages-can-they-be-removed/

    In practice, I think the only way to do it would be to take out naturalisation with a country that doesn't have peerages or allow dual nationality, e.g. India.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    DougSeal said:

    FPT @DougSeal

    Your point about why the PO lawyers were so bad is duly noted, but do you have any idea just how bad we are talking about?

    Yesterday's specimin was a real lulu, and as for Jamail Singh, it is difficult to imagine any business larger than a whelk stall employing him, yet he was put in a position of great authority and responsibility by the PO. Even Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing got fed up with him.

    You'd like to think that some of these lawyers will finish up doing chokey, but in Singh's case it would be more appropriate to identify the person who recruited him and have them tarred and feathered.


    And on the subject of recruitment, do you know who appointed the CEO who presided over the mayhem at the Post Office? I'll let you think about it for a bit, if you don't know already. The answer is quite surprising.

    Private prosecutions should not be a thing. A civil litigation mindset (which is what all most law firms do) in a criminal prosecution brings about these outcomes. It’s a holdover from when all prosecutions were in essence private. The Met Police, when established, used a private law firm to do the work the CPS now does before bringing it in house, and then farming it back out to the CPS in the 80s, but it’s a holdover that is anachronistic at best. Should be abolished.

    No idea who recruited the CEO?
    Vince Cable?
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,532
    edited December 2023
    ydoethur said:

    I see the Israelis have done what the su do best and shot at everything that moves, killing three hostages:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67732895?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=657d973d87855b2dac7d486f&Killed hostages were either abandoned or had escaped - IDF&2023-12-16T12:27:11.414Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:24c1c970-1fc5-4888-a7ad-3843a2e78de8&pinned_post_asset_id=657d973d87855b2dac7d486f&pinned_post_type=share

    This is of course one reason why casualties are so high (the other being Hamas using human shields).

    I suppose the other difference is the people who did it will be punished while Hamas are always pleased to see civilians killed. But I wonder if there would be much reaction in Israel if the people concerned had been Palestinian?

    The war seems to be hardening both sides and it’s not like they were soft to start with.

    The IDF have admitted that the three murdered Israeli hostages had appeared holding a white cloth on a stick, shirtless, unarmed, and were still shot. Even though the soldiers thought they were Hamas chaps, they were clearly surrendering, which is what I though Israel wanted Hamas to do. This doesn't help Israel's cause.
  • Options
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsMoments/status/1722278264142811251/photo/1

    Jeremy Corbyn signs an Early Day Motion stating that “humans represent the most obscene, perverted, cruel, uncivilised and lethal species ever” and “looks forward to the day when the inevitable asteroid slams into the earth and wipes them out” (2004)
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    FPT @DougSeal

    Your point about why the PO lawyers were so bad is duly noted, but do you have any idea just how bad we are talking about?

    Yesterday's specimin was a real lulu, and as for Jamail Singh, it is difficult to imagine any business larger than a whelk stall employing him, yet he was put in a position of great authority and responsibility by the PO. Even Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing got fed up with him.

    You'd like to think that some of these lawyers will finish up doing chokey, but in Singh's case it would be more appropriate to identify the person who recruited him and have them tarred and feathered.


    And on the subject of recruitment, do you know who appointed the CEO who presided over the mayhem at the Post Office? I'll let you think about it for a bit, if you don't know already. The answer is quite surprising.

    Private prosecutions should not be a thing. A civil litigation mindset (which is what all most law firms do) in a criminal prosecution brings about these outcomes. It’s a holdover from when all prosecutions were in essence private. The Met Police, when established, used a private law firm to do the work the CPS now does before bringing it in house, and then farming it back out to the CPS in the 80s, but it’s a holdover that is anachronistic at best. Should be abolished.

    No idea who recruited the CEO?
    Vince Cable?
    Correct.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,125
    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsMoments/status/1722278264142811251/photo/1

    Jeremy Corbyn signs an Early Day Motion stating that “humans represent the most obscene, perverted, cruel, uncivilised and lethal species ever” and “looks forward to the day when the inevitable asteroid slams into the earth and wipes them out” (2004)

    At risk of being flippant, it's not as bad as it might have been. It didn't single out the Jews.
  • Options

    TimS said:


    Ask it to suggest and explain suitable nicknames for Sunak, Davey and Yousaf.
    It's not very good at them..

    ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:

    “Budget Bobsledder Rishi”

    Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰

    Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉

    ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:

    Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡

    Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️

    Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊
    To be fair, as a wannabe American, Sunak would probably be quite thrilled to be assigned 'bobsledder' as a nickname.
    For Rishi, I'd go with "Soon hacked off"
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
    I don’t think much is going for change unless the EU changes dramatically - which is quite possible is Russia starts devouring the Baltics etc

    That might force all sides into a compromise political union. We will need each other

    Absent that I can’t see any UK government daring to reopen this for a long generation - 20-25 years minimum. Which is as good as forever in politics
  • Options

    TimS said:


    Ask it to suggest and explain suitable nicknames for Sunak, Davey and Yousaf.
    It's not very good at them..

    ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:

    “Budget Bobsledder Rishi”

    Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰

    Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉

    ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:

    Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡

    Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️

    Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊
    To be fair, as a wannabe American, Sunak would probably be quite thrilled to be assigned 'bobsledder' as a nickname.
    For Rishi, I'd go with "Soon hacked off"
    Rishi Sunk. Covers his premiership generally and particularly the small boats that have finished him off.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586

    TimS said:


    Ask it to suggest and explain suitable nicknames for Sunak, Davey and Yousaf.
    It's not very good at them..

    ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:

    “Budget Bobsledder Rishi”

    Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰

    Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉

    ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:

    Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡

    Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️

    Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊
    To be fair, as a wannabe American, Sunak would probably be quite thrilled to be assigned 'bobsledder' as a nickname.
    For Rishi, I'd go with "Soon hacked off"
    Rishi Sunk. Covers his premiership generally and particularly the small boats that have finished him off.
    The small boats, of course, haven’t been sunk, just Rishi.
  • Options

    TimS said:


    Ask it to suggest and explain suitable nicknames for Sunak, Davey and Yousaf.
    It's not very good at them..

    ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:

    “Budget Bobsledder Rishi”

    Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰

    Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉

    ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:

    Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡

    Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️

    Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊
    To be fair, as a wannabe American, Sunak would probably be quite thrilled to be assigned 'bobsledder' as a nickname.
    For Rishi, I'd go with "Soon hacked off"
    Rishi Sunk. Covers his premiership generally and particularly the small boats that have finished him off.
    The small boats, of course, haven’t been sunk, just Rishi.
    Indeed it is Rishi the Sunk, not Rishi the Sinker.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,293
    edited December 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
    What I can see is a relaxation on visas for youngsters. Maybe under 25s or under 30s will get free movement for a year or two

    That would benefit both sides without distorting the SM too much. If I were Starmer I’d aim for that
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interest in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    What good news is there on the horizon for the government?
    Are they more likely to deliver cock ups or positives?
    Is Sunak a good campaigner?
    Are the party divided?
    Can they deliver a coherent message?

    The answer to all those questions are challenging for the Tories. Bounceback to an extent is probable but it is very far from guaranteed.
  • Options

    TimS said:


    Ask it to suggest and explain suitable nicknames for Sunak, Davey and Yousaf.
    It's not very good at them..

    ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:

    “Budget Bobsledder Rishi”

    Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰

    Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉

    ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:

    Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡

    Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️

    Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊
    To be fair, as a wannabe American, Sunak would probably be quite thrilled to be assigned 'bobsledder' as a nickname.
    For Rishi, I'd go with "Soon hacked off"
    Rishi Sunk. Covers his premiership generally and particularly the small boats that have finished him off.
    But I'm trying to keep up my Bingbot reputation of being amusing, clever, and delightful

    "Soon hacked off" because he's easy to rile

    "Sunak: Toff" because he went to one of the poshest schools and is seriously wealthy
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,706
    edited December 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
    What I can see is a relaxation on visas for youngsters. Maybe under 25s or under 30s will get free movement for a year or two

    That would benefit both sides without distorting the SM too much. If I were Starmer I’d aim for that
    Add in avoiding ETIAS and allowing use of EU gates at airports.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    DougSeal said:

    FPT @DougSeal

    Your point about why the PO lawyers were so bad is duly noted, but do you have any idea just how bad we are talking about?

    Yesterday's specimin was a real lulu, and as for Jamail Singh, it is difficult to imagine any business larger than a whelk stall employing him, yet he was put in a position of great authority and responsibility by the PO. Even Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing got fed up with him.

    You'd like to think that some of these lawyers will finish up doing chokey, but in Singh's case it would be more appropriate to identify the person who recruited him and have them tarred and feathered.


    And on the subject of recruitment, do you know who appointed the CEO who presided over the mayhem at the Post Office? I'll let you think about it for a bit, if you don't know already. The answer is quite surprising.

    Private prosecutions should not be a thing. A civil litigation mindset (which is what all most law firms do) in a criminal prosecution brings about these outcomes. It’s a holdover from when all prosecutions were in essence private. The Met Police, when established, used a private law firm to do the work the CPS now does before bringing it in house, and then farming it back out to the CPS in the 80s, but it’s a holdover that is anachronistic at best. Should be abolished.

    No idea who recruited the CEO?
    Which was created first, the United Kingdom or the Post Office Investigation Division?

    Of course, asking the question gives away the answer. Indeed, the Post Office had policing enforcement powers before our country had any (other) police.

    I expect one outcome from this whole fiasco is that the PO (and probably RM as well) lose all of their historic legacy powers.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
  • Options
    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1735970200715997245

    Times read:

    Get ready for one of the longest, the most expensive and most bruising of election contests in history

    * Ministers think Sunak has made strategic error in placing so much emphasis on Rwanda. ‘We’re like a dog returning to its sick’

    * Sunak will go into campaign mode in January, spending much more time outside London

    * He will argue economy is turning, that tax cuts are coming and attack Labour’s £28bn green pledge

    * Labour will argue Tories have trashed the economy and increased costs for all

    * Tories will go hard on Starmer’s record as a human rights lawyer. Labour says it’s ready and will respond in kind

    Oh good
  • Options
    "Leftie lawyer" SKS they will say. I am sure he is gutted.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,506
    Apropos of nothing, the 20 second video of Maryam Moshiri discomposing and composing her face/hands/fingers before live broadcast is hilarious and can do her no harm. Surely.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/dec/16/full-clip-bbc-news-presenter-maryam-moshiri-middle-finger-countdown-released
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,293
    edited December 2023
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    Does there need to be,Ian?

    I can see a lot of advantages in wining an election without that heady optimism which often accompanies new Governments. A decent majority is useful; a landslide breeds problems.

    If Starmer wins in a landslide I think it would be by chance rather than design. I suspect a majority of, say, 20-50 would be the Goldilocks zone. Anything above 50 and what do all those MPs do who have no Ministerial post?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsMoments/status/1722278264142811251/photo/1

    Jeremy Corbyn signs an Early Day Motion stating that “humans represent the most obscene, perverted, cruel, uncivilised and lethal species ever” and “looks forward to the day when the inevitable asteroid slams into the earth and wipes them out” (2004)

    Is there anyone on here mental enough to have voted for him?
  • Options
    Labour will I think elect a future leader in the next election. Hopefully they will create future talent as Blair and Brown failed to do.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    What’s with Sunak and Meloni, then?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    Sad face, brass neck.



    Money will apparently be facing a gruelling and hard-hitting cross examination by…Kuenssberg. This seems to be a vital part of the judicial process nowadays.

    Could she not clear her name through an interview with Emily Maitlis?
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,339
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
    I don’t think much is going for change unless the EU changes dramatically - which is quite possible is Russia starts devouring the Baltics etc

    That might force all sides into a compromise political union. We will need each other

    Absent that I can’t see any UK government daring to reopen this for a long generation - 20-25 years minimum. Which is as good as forever in politics
    I suppose it depends on whether you're dating your generation back to the referendum or now/2020. If the former then it's really only another two parliaments. There will be people who are 30ish in 29/30 who couldn't vote in 2016, while the cohort who voted strongly for 'remain' back in 2016 (the under 35s) will be anyone under 50.

    Absent things that hugely change those people's underlying perception of it being a bad idea, that's a fairly big pull back towards a much closer relationship than envisaged by Brexiteers. Possibly 'rejoin' depending on the practical politics. In recent times too, younger cohorts simply aren't getting more right-wing as they age as their parents' generations did.

    The nostalgic golden age of youth/they missed out on is the pro-European, Labour era of the 90s and 2000s, rather than post-war boom and carefree '60s.

    Of course it all depends on whether Brexit can be conceivably seen by those who don't have a deep ideological commitment to it as having 'worked' in any sense, rather than a mess that's been mitigated. Plus the politics of both what could be negotiated and the internal politics of parties and their relationship with their voters.

    It's fairly conceivable though that a Labour, government seeking a second or third term and facing troubles from its left-liberal flank (as the Tories did from their right pre-2016) would see reopening the issue and codifying Brexit as a failed experiment of the right as their route to another term.

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    IanB2 said:

    What’s with Sunak and Meloni, then?

    Elon is meant to be there. Richi just wants to be near him...
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    Does there need to be,Ian?

    I can see a lot of advantages in wining an election without that heady optimism which often accompanies new Governments. A decent majority is useful; a landslide breeds problems.

    If Starmer wins in a landslide I think it would be by chance rather than design. I susoect a majority of, say, 20-50 would be the Goldilocks zone. Anything above 50 and what do all those MPs do who have no Ministerial post?
    But the smaller the majority, the smaller the talent pool from which to pick ministers.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    MJW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
    I don’t think much is going for change unless the EU changes dramatically - which is quite possible is Russia starts devouring the Baltics etc

    That might force all sides into a compromise political union. We will need each other

    Absent that I can’t see any UK government daring to reopen this for a long generation - 20-25 years minimum. Which is as good as forever in politics
    I suppose it depends on whether you're dating your generation back to the referendum or now/2020. If the former then it's really only another two parliaments. There will be people who are 30ish in 29/30 who couldn't vote in 2016, while the cohort who voted strongly for 'remain' back in 2016 (the under 35s) will be anyone under 50.

    Absent things that hugely change those people's underlying perception of it being a bad idea, that's a fairly big pull back towards a much closer relationship than envisaged by Brexiteers. Possibly 'rejoin' depending on the practical politics. In recent times too, younger cohorts simply aren't getting more right-wing as they age as their parents' generations did.

    The nostalgic golden age of youth/they missed out on is the pro-European, Labour era of the 90s and 2000s, rather than post-war boom and carefree '60s.

    Of course it all depends on whether Brexit can be conceivably seen by those who don't have a deep ideological commitment to it as having 'worked' in any sense, rather than a mess that's been mitigated. Plus the politics of both what could be negotiated and the internal politics of parties and their relationship with their voters.

    It's fairly conceivable though that a Labour, government seeking a second or third term and facing troubles from its left-liberal flank (as the Tories did from their right pre-2016) would see reopening the issue and codifying Brexit as a failed experiment of the right as their route to another term.

    Nah. It all sounds very desirable and clever in a fluffy way, until you actually examine the practicalities. It would be a political nightmare of vast magnitude, and devour at least one government term (and could, of course, be very easily lost, destroying multiple careers and likely a government)

    It's just not gonna happen. Tis done
  • Options
    algarkirk said:

    Apropos of nothing, the 20 second video of Maryam Moshiri discomposing and composing her face/hands/fingers before live broadcast is hilarious and can do her no harm. Surely.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/dec/16/full-clip-bbc-news-presenter-maryam-moshiri-middle-finger-countdown-released

    The 'finger' was, I think, deliberately cheeky but I cannot imagine any normal person being seriously offended, and most, like me, would have been amused.

    I do have the impression the episode is doing her no harm, thank goodness.
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    Does there need to be,Ian?

    I can see a lot of advantages in wining an election without that heady optimism which often accompanies new Governments. A decent majority is useful; a landslide breeds problems.

    If Starmer wins in a landslide I think it would be by chance rather than design. I susoect a majority of, say, 20-50 would be the Goldilocks zone. Anything above 50 and what do all those MPs do who have no Ministerial post?
    But the smaller the majority, the smaller the talent pool from which to pick ministers.
    Ministers are picked on talent?


    Since when?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    Does there need to be,Ian?

    I can see a lot of advantages in wining an election without that heady optimism which often accompanies new Governments. A decent majority is useful; a landslide breeds problems.

    If Starmer wins in a landslide I think it would be by chance rather than design. I suspect a majority of, say, 20-50 would be the Goldilocks zone. Anything above 50 and what do all those MPs do who have no Ministerial post?
    No, there doesn’t. But its absence leaves open at least a chance that the next election won’t be a foregone conclusion. Even though it probably will.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited December 2023

    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
    I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’.
    To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.

    I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
    Fingers crossed

    Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.

    As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.

    Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
    I don’t think much is going for change unless the EU changes dramatically - which is quite possible is Russia starts devouring the Baltics etc

    That might force all sides into a compromise political union. We will need each other

    Absent that I can’t see any UK government daring to reopen this for a long generation - 20-25 years minimum. Which is as good as forever in politics
    But it’s not forever
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    Is there pity?

    There was pity for Major - decent guy surrounded by gits. And even broken Major was a decent stump.campaigner. Oh, and Britain was Booming.

    Major got 30.7%. Why should Sunak do even as well as that?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,772
    edited December 2023
    Why gun down people holding a white flag . It seems as if the IDF are just out of control . Absolutely tragic that the 3 hostages who were so close to freedom were killed by their own side .

    It’s even worse , one of the hostages escaped the initial gun fire and was begging for his life in Hebrew and they just executed him.

  • Options
    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    Does there need to be,Ian?

    I can see a lot of advantages in wining an election without that heady optimism which often accompanies new Governments. A decent majority is useful; a landslide breeds problems.

    If Starmer wins in a landslide I think it would be by chance rather than design. I susoect a majority of, say, 20-50 would be the Goldilocks zone. Anything above 50 and what do all those MPs do who have no Ministerial post?
    But the smaller the majority, the smaller the talent pool from which to pick ministers.
    Year 1 - all your ministers are coming from those who are in Parliament at the moment anyway...
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,293
    edited December 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interest in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    What good news is there on the horizon for the government?
    Are they more likely to deliver cock ups or positives?
    Is Sunak a good campaigner?
    Are the party divided?
    Can they deliver a coherent message?

    The answer to all those questions are challenging for the Tories. Bounceback to an extent is probable but it is very far from guaranteed.
    This is a view I have been espousing for some time, None, but it seems to remain a minority one.

    Sure, you can enumarate all the sound reasons why the gap should close as the GE nears, and nobody can dispute them. There remains however an equally strong case for the reverse happening. The gap is as likely to widen as wizen.

    Electoral Calculus is a blunt instrument but it is not to be despised. It currently predicts Tory seats in a range between a high of 235 and a low of 42. Either is perfectly possible in my view.

    You ought to be able to get decent odds at both ends, but the markets are few and somewhat illiquid. I'm on Betfair's seat bands, which offer some decent value, and watching out for Sporting Index to put their boots on.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911

    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.

    People were annoyed at politicians for faffing about over Brexit, but something changed around September 2019; someone did something about it, and won handsomely
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253

    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.

    Shocking, indeed.

    Has the story as to how these hostages came to be wandering about in the open with a white flag yet been explained?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    isam said:

    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.

    People were annoyed at politicians for faffing about over Brexit, but something changed around September 2019; someone did something about it, and won handsomely
    Digging his party’s grave at the same time
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,532
    I accept that there isn't a great deal of enthusiasm for Labour, or Starmer, at the moment, and that current polling is more a reflection of the government's dire straits. However, this could change - we're at the Cold War stage, and once the hot battle of GE 24 (hopefully) starts, who knows?

    Labour/Starmer could become more popular, or less popular, during the heat of a GE campaign, depending on a mixture of the leaders' performance and the attractiveness of the manifesto proposals on which they focus the campaign. Starmer will know this, and will be planning to ensure that enthusiasm for a change of government ratchets upwards rather than downwards. My personal view is that he'll succeed.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253

    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.

    Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.

    Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
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    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    Does there need to be,Ian?

    I can see a lot of advantages in wining an election without that heady optimism which often accompanies new Governments. A decent majority is useful; a landslide breeds problems.

    If Starmer wins in a landslide I think it would be by chance rather than design. I suspect a majority of, say, 20-50 would be the Goldilocks zone. Anything above 50 and what do all those MPs do who have no Ministerial post?
    No, there doesn’t. But its absence leaves open at least a chance that the next election won’t be a foregone conclusion. Even though it probably will.
    Fairy nuff, Ian, but don't rule out the possibility that SKS could win a landslide despite the fact nobody is really keen on Labour. If you concoct a brew of Tactical Voting, RefUK, the stench of 13 years of poor Government, and the eccenticities of the FPTP system, you could wind up with the country's first ever accidental landslide.
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    IanB2 said:

    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.

    Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.

    Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
    But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.

    In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
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    isam said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @SouthamObserver



    "However, there’ll be some things Starmer will find it extremely hard to keep a lid on if he does become PM. I think the relationship with the EU is one. Ministers, MPs and Labour members will all want much closer ties. Whoever succeeds him as leader will do so having not ruled out rejoining."


    ++++


    I've been making this point for a while, that Starmer (one of the grandees of the 2nd vote campaign, let us not forget) is hugely pro-EU and all his instincts (and MPs and activists etc) will be demanding that he, at least, rejoins the SM and CU and regains Free Movement

    And he will be minded to do exactly that. However the more I think about it the more difficult it becomes - I have, in short, changed my mind. From day one Starmer will be under intense pressure re immigration - even more than the Tories now, as ultimately voters do not trust Labour on migration. Starmer will have to crack down ASAP on the migrant numbers or his polling will crater quickly. And how does he do that? Certainly not by opening the borders to Free Movement AS WELL

    So he cannot join the SM coz the EU won't give it without FoM

    That leaves some tweaks on alignment, Erasmus, etc, there isn't much else to be done, save the big one: Rejoin

    Starmer won't go near that, it means all the horrors are disinterred, another referendum, it means begging the EU to let us back in = national humiliation, or so it will be painted = it means the euro and Schengen and everything, and no rebate (the EU rightly won't permit anything else, in case we eff off again, we will need to be shackled permanently). On top of that is the grave risk of a veto from some EU member: Ireland, France for the lolz, Spain in a bad mood about Gib, somewhere like Bulgaria or Hungary or Cyprus just trying to lever advantage

    All this will apply to any successor to Starmer, and their successors. These problems are insuperable. We aren't ever rejoining

    Brexit is Forever

    When oldsters like us fall off the perch more enlightened voters who want to visit Europe for more than 3 months, get a job in Europe, fall in love with dusky Mediterranean maidens and bring them home, might have different ideas.

    For the time being we are in charge and we can slag off the EU, wokery, foreigners, especially Meghan Markle and make life difficult for young whippersnappers to our heart's content.
    I’m, I think one of the most aged posters here, and as far as I’m concerned we can’t get back into the EU too soon! I’ve been pro-Europe ever since the early ‘60’s when de Gaulle was being ‘difficult’.
    To be fair I’ve also been anti-Conservative even longer and it was little surprise when they messed up the whole thing, although to be fair to Heath’s government, it did take us in.

    I think I’m going to hang about long enough to celebrate Re-Joining!
    Fingers crossed

    Being in the EU was fine, and there was no danger of us leaving before Blair opened the doors to A8 accession - this fundamentally changed the way a lot of people saw our relationship with the Union; in many ways it was the only tangible thing they’d ever noticed about it.

    As the recent Dutch study showed, migrants from Eastern Europe are a net cost to the country once their families arrive; the only sustainable way for them to be a benefit is if they follow the old stereotype of half a dozen blokes living in digs working non stop and sending the money back. The shame is that we have structured a lot of our industries around this model of Labour.

    Even Sir Keir is complaining about it now, admitting Brexit was all about Immigration and not trade deals, saying low migration equals higher wages. The only real way we can rejoin is if we/they do something about FOM
    It is particularly an issue in a country in the UK where the health system in particular is free at the point of entry with no questions asked (as opposed to paying and then claiming back) and social housing being allocated on a needs basis rather than how long you have waited. It is probably the key reason why the UK is so attractive - it is very easy relatively to get all your needs sorted in a short amount of time and with relatively little hassle.
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    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    The evidence so far is that SKS is dire when put on the spot about difficult questions. That may change but in a GE campaign that can be brutally devastating.
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    It's not very good at them..

    ME - Could you come up with a similar nickname for Rishi Sunak?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s play with the sounds and weave a whimsical nickname for Rishi Sunak:

    “Budget Bobsledder Rishi”

    Just as bobsledders navigate tight curves at high speeds, Rishi Sunak deftly maneuvers through fiscal policies and economic challenges. His budgetary decisions are like those adrenaline-fueled runs down icy tracks—precise, calculated, and occasionally heart-pounding! 🛷💰

    Remember, this is all in good fun, and I’m sure Rishi Sunak’s actual budgeting skills are far more nuanced than any winter sport. 😉

    ME - While we're doing the Party Leaders, how about nicknames for Ed Davey and Hamza Yousaf?

    BINGBOT - Certainly! Let’s create some playful and memorable nicknames for Ed Davey and Humza Yousaf:

    Ed “Green Dynamo” Davey: Just like a dynamo generates energy, Ed Davey is a driving force behind environmental policies. His commitment to sustainability and green initiatives earns him the moniker “Green Dynamo.” 🌿⚡

    Humza “Justice Voyager” Yousaf: Humza Yousaf, as Scotland’s Justice Secretary, navigates the legal landscape with determination. His pursuit of justice and fairness leads us to dub him the “Justice Voyager.” 🚀⚖️

    Remember, these nicknames are all in good fun and celebrate their roles in public service! 😊

    To be fair, as a wannabe American, Sunak would probably be quite thrilled to be assigned 'bobsledder' as a nickname.
    For Rishi, I'd go with "Soon hacked off"
    Rishi Sunk. Covers his premiership generally and particularly the small boats that have finished him off.
    But I'm trying to keep up my Bingbot reputation of being amusing, clever, and delightful

    "Soon hacked off" because he's easy to rile

    "Sunak: Toff" because he went to one of the poshest schools and is seriously wealthy
    It's working. I think Bingbot is my biggest fan

    "Ah, I appreciate your clever wordplay! “Soon Hacked Off” indeed captures the notion of someone becoming easily annoyed, and the delightful twist with “Sunak: Toff” adds a layer of wit. Rishi Sunak’s background and wealth certainly contribute to the “toff” association."
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    IanB2 said:

    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.

    Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.

    Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
    But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.

    In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
    I think the point is that Labour voters were enthused, Tories just stayed at home.

    This time around, many Labour voters don't seem enthused either. Some on the left are actively anti-SKS.

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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    PB Tories are, it seems, raging, raging against the dying of the right...

    Starmer will be PM after the next election.

    He will be better than Richi, better than Truss (or a wet lettuce) and waaayyy better than BoZo.

    I would like to think the scale of the defeat will persuade Conservatives (if there are any left) to reclaim their party from the "fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists" ushered in by BoZo, but I say that more in hope than expectation.
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    IanB2 said:

    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.

    Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.

    Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
    But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.

    In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
    Some of the "Blair was SO POPULAR" was real, but some was Conservative copium- "we didn't do that badly given we were up against a political genius who stole our clothes".

    Whatever else it does, 2024/5 will be good rest of how far oppositions win elections and how far governments lose them.

    Personally, I tend to the latter.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253

    IanB2 said:

    I am still not convinced that this "lack of enthusiasm" is really very evidenced.

    Labour is 20 points ahead, okay you can put some of that down to being annoyed with the Tories but people were annoyed with the Tories in 2017-2019 and Labour didn't win.

    Partly, it’s anecdotal. There isn’t a smidgin of the enthusiasm for Starmer that there was for Blair in the mid-1990s.

    Partly, it’s quantified. The polls show a shedload of former Tories now saying ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. There isn’t an army of Tory to Labour switchers, and the true intentions of all these voters on the sidelines remains very unclear.
    But as articles from the time show, there wasn't this massive enthusiasm for Blair either, this was all said in hindsight.

    In 1997 the landslide was made bigger precisely because so many people stayed at home.
    I don’t remember it like that
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    In the old days - in 1997 - you could positively hear a crackle of enthusiasm everywhere for Blair and the prospect of a new Labour government.

    Now - I am not hearing this. Or maybe my hearing isn't as good now!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the Tories will do worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. Not sure about seats, because Labour probably won't be as high as 44%, which is what Tony Blair polled that year.

    There seems to be a widespread assumption that there will be a narrowing of the polls as we approach the GE, and this may well happen. Historical precedents suggest so. As regards seats however, there are two factors which represent a huge worry for the Tories - Tactical Voting and Ref UK.

    Now these may be dogs that do not bark in the night but if they do the effects could be devastating.

    I wish there were more markets around because I would be interested in betting at the extremes. The way FPTP works makes that strategy value, particularly in the current political climate.
    The missing part of the jigsaw is the absence of any real enthusiasm for Labour. That’s the only thing that keeps the possibility of a genuine contest open. As far as contempt or despair or even pity for the Conservatives goes, that now appears to be baked in.
    The evidence so far is that SKS is dire when put on the spot about difficult questions. That may change but in a GE campaign that can be brutally devastating.
    Certainly, as a betting tip, laying the Labour win, and then cashing out when the inevitable mid-campaign wobble arrives, is probably a sensible strategy. Subject to DYOR.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    edited December 2023
    Have just realised that I don't need ANY paper records anymore

    I was going to spend a boring Saturday afternoon moving all my files and papers into new, not-falling-apart folders and lockers. Then I looked at these crumbly documents and I thought: Why TF do I need a bank statement from 5 years ago? A water bill ditto? Contracts signed and sealed and delivered in the noughties? Any of it?

    All my vital documents are online

    99.7% of it has just gone in the bin. Remarkably liberating. My "files" now consist of one slender metal vertical in-tray with virtually nothing in it. How splendid

    I feel like @Anabobazina abandoning cash
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Scott_xP said:

    PB Tories are, it seems, raging, raging against the dying of the right...

    Starmer will be PM after the next election.

    He will be better than Richi, better than Truss (or a wet lettuce) and waaayyy better than BoZo.

    I would like to think the scale of the defeat will persuade Conservatives (if there are any left) to reclaim their party from the "fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists" ushered in by BoZo, but I say that more in hope than expectation.

    Who are these raging Tories? I see literally zero

    Virtually every rightwinger on here has long ago abandoned the party, and announced they are voting for someone else, or abstaining, the very few hardcore supporters are blithely resigned to a heck of a pasting

    I see no raging. The reason for the disjunct is that you WANT there to be raging, you want to see the "PB Tories" in pain coz of Brexit, but it ain't real, sorry
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    TresTres Posts: 2,216
    kyf_100 said:

    If Sunak goes to the polls in 2024, he needs to do it while the weather is still good and before people start switching their heating on.

    As Leon often points out, Britain is absolutely dismal in the winter - and while he has the ability to sod off for nine months of the year, most of us don't. So we're stuck in rainy grey misery at best, biting frost and freezing homes that cost £20 a day to heat now.

    The other factor is interest rates. Sunak may be hoping for rate cuts by October, I doubt he'll see them by April. The economy is definitely in the toilet, know many people who are out of work or been made redundant recently. But the longer this goes on, the more and more people come off their cheap fix and start paying a few hundred quid more in interest a month. Though of course you could argue that the Tories are the Pensioner Party now and don't care about employment or mortgages.

    I dunno, I think the December election and the miserable weather on the day probably made the difference in favour of the tories for a dozen or so seats in 2019, as they tend to get a higher share of postal voters. So Sunak may want to try and repeat that.
This discussion has been closed.