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It’s hard to argue with punters about a LAB majority – politicalbetting.com
It’s hard to argue with punters about a LAB majority – politicalbetting.com
Above is a trend chart showing the betting over nearly two years on the outcome of the next election.
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I recently turned 48, is it too late for me?
If you think "You look OK" is a compliment, prepare to die a virgin / have ugly sex / pay for it
However, she lives in Idaho, and there is just a single railway station (Sandpoint) in the whole state, so you would need some new hobbies.
You look adequate?
You look so-so?
You look average?
You look middling?
You look sufficient?
Seriously impressive.
Maybe the new model for Newsnight will work?
(Provided Sunil earns £38 000)
I expect the race to tighten. Surely even Sunak will hit his stride at some point.
They also built the main parcel distribution centre backwards. And painted over the Crown on their vans then had to repaint them at a cost of ballpark £20million.
Which was all fine. Thankfully they had some random postmasters to sue.
There's a saying in Boise:
"Better childless in Idaho, than with child in Essex"
In politics this is imho the most important vid clip in a very long time.
Can't see how she will not be leader of the opposition in 2025.
Forget all this crap about Farage.
And I reckon she is the one that Starmer and Reeves fear will deny them a second term.
I'm on at 9 but she is still available at round 4.
https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1734999229511172581
I expect the dam to break, and a sizeable Labour majority. But 6.6 does seem good value. 3 would seem fair.
Fortunately, I didn't have a thing for her, otherwise it would have stung a lot more. I just condensed it to "Marmite good looks" in my head and had done with it.
House GOP votes to formalize impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/12/13/congress/inquiry-is-official-00131658
She talks the talk, but doesn't walk the walk.
That may be OK as LOTO up to the point that she has to organise something like an election campaign.
Who knows about the election campaign in say 2028?
Labour will after a brief honeymoon find life in the mid 2020s very very very hard going.
The economic cycle will turn more positive at some point, and very likely to be in the first term of Starmers government.
A lucky General indeed.
Good on Badenoch.
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/countdown-to-the-general-election/
Governments then try to interfere with that mechanism by various methods to satisfy the voters, but what we're seeing in Britain is that the government is turning almost every knob they can find to prevent people from coming in and they're still getting net immigration.
* There are a couple of exceptions like healthcare workers where it's government policy to let people in for a specific policy goal, but they're small in the grand scheme of things.
OpenAI to pay German media group Axel Springer to use its material, including stories behind paywalls
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/dec/13/openai-axel-springer-chatgpt-story-writing-business-insider-politico
Pt0 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnsB9fvOiLQ
Pt1 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suhYJ2iVbHU
Pt2 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LS9jPhm-f0
Given a minority of the GOP pretend they care whether he is convicted or not on whether they will support him, could be a pivotal moment.
https://x.com/realchrisrufo/status/1735026560015720632
Oklahoma @GovStitt has signed an executive order abolishing the DEI bureaucracy in all public universities.
(ducks)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67623131
The Thatcher government should never have agreed to the idiotically high drinking water standards from the European Commission in 1980 (it is one of the very few mistakes that Nigel Lawson acknowledges in his memoirs).
Prescott and New Labour should not have prevented water companies from disconnecting non-payers, which has saddled the industry with a huge bad debt problem. Net Zero should be scrapped altogether. Etc. etc. That simply misunderstands the law and Ofwat's duties. It has to operate within the statutory duties that Parliament sets out, quite rightly, but within those it has discretion to improve things, and, in some ways (introducing competition in various parts of the industry, promoting operating efficiency, enforcing environmental standards with the EA, etc.) has done so. Right, because as HS2 has shown us, the public sector is sooooo wonderful at delivering big, expensive, complex investment programmes. It is a paragon of efficiency. Delivering a railway at 5-10x the cost of similar projects overseas is a triumph. Or, as is apparently now the case, mostly not delivering it. Or virtually any government IT project. Or the shambles of defence procurement, etc., etc., etc.
Anyway, the government may be able to borrow slightly more cheaply than private firms at the moment, but if they assume more risky investment projects, that advantage will be eroded significantly. And the taxpayer will be on the hook for every little overspend.
Also you're focusing only on the capital programme and ignoring the big operating efficiency savings the companies made after privatisation, delivered mainly because of the regulatory system. Simply wrong. There IS competition in much of the industry for one thing, e.g. for new connections, bioresources and business customers. For another, the companies compete with each other at each price review to produce the most efficient business plans for the next five years. Personally I think there should also be competition for household customers as in energy but Ofwat and the government have been too timid to date to allow that, mostly for fear of stranding upstream assets, as the nuclear industry was stranded after electricity privatisation. That is their biggest mistake, though they have intelligent reasons for not doing so (see https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/regulated-companies/markets/future-markets/extending-retail-competition-to-households/residential-retail-lessons-markets/).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8L2LMEPMGw
However in Scotland the relationship is much weaker, which is what you'd expect given the presence of the SNP. What's interesting is that the SCon vote appears to be more depressed than the SLab vote. In some places the SCon vote is what you would expect (Banff and Buchan), but that's rare.
That could be explained by a combination of tactical voting, Tartan Tories in the SNP, a particular Scottish antipathy to Johnson, or simply that Scotland is more left-wing than E&W.
The risk for Labour is that Unionist voters in Scotland doesn't see the SNP as much of a threat anymore and revert back to the SCons, that Sunak is more attractive than Johnson for these types of voters, and that the Tartan Tory segment of the SNP is more likely to abandon them rather than Sturgeonites (with the former having half the value of the latter in SNP/Labour marginals). Our assessment of each of these dynamics in Scotland has a disproportionate weight on the result of the GE.
With the appeal on grounds of presidential immunity to criminal charges (which IMO is an absurd proposition) Trump and his lawyers were aiming to drag this out for months as it progressed through the federal courts.
By applying directly to the Supreme Court, Jack Smith gambled on short circuiting that, and seems to have won (though there is some uncertainty about the full scope of the issue the court has agreed to rule on).
The court will act pretty quickly.
THAT WAS FAST! The appeals court GRANTS Jack Smith’s motion for expedited appeal on the immunity case. Trump’s brief due 12/23. DoJ’s due 12/30. Trump’s reply due 1/2. Oral arguments TBD.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1735083419095445662
Kavanaugh has some 'interesting' opinions about US v Nixon (though the grounds on which he objects to it don't apply to this case).
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/22/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-pick-nixon-watergate-tapes
'Yesterday I attended a session called by Palestine at the United Nations in Geneva. Over 120 states attended. While the formal session consisted of statements of national position with few surprises, I was able to discuss with a large number of delegates in the corridors why the Genocide Convention has not been activated, triggering a reference to the International Court of Justice.
'The answer is now clear to me. It is not that people are worried that a claim of genocide will not be successful at the International Court of Justice. It is that everybody is quite sure it will succeed. There is no respectable argument that this is not a genocide...
'The problem is that once the ICJ has determined that this is a genocide, it follows that not only are Netanyahu and hundreds of senior Israeli officials and military personally liable, but it is absolutely plain that “Genocide Joe” Biden, Sunak and members of their administrations are also criminally liable for complicity, having provided military support for the genocide.
'The International Criminal Court cannot ignore a judgment of genocide from the International Court of Justice and will have no choice but to issue arrest warrants.'
Source: https://craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/
Sayeeda Warsi
@SayeedaWarsi
This is an awful interview from this appalling Israeli ambassador to the UK.
She has a long and well documented history of denying the right of Palestine to exist and is a clear example of why this Israeli government is not a partner for peace.
Netanyahu and his far right extremists must go and our government need to be brave enough to start saying so publicly.
Once you have these laws there needs to be a monitoring bureau to produce figures to demonstrate that an organisation is meeting the law.
Change the name if it offends you, but someone in HR needs to take the responsibility on.
Ours is very good at organising public health campaigns to engage underserved communities, which often have particular health needs.
BRACE
And the longer the wait to the next election the larger the majority will be - because the Tory party's vote wlll implode as the true state of a lot of things that are currently hidden become obvious.
As I said multiple times now - come June a lot of councils will be issuing Section 114 notices because it allows them to blame the previous (Tory) leadership.
And if you looked at the news yesterday Coventry university has big problems that can't be hidden anymore https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckr827z30p2o , Likewise Sheffield Hallam who have offered voluntary redundancy to all teaching staff (the compulsory bit may come later - but it's a great deal (as the first offer often is) so grab it now if you are impacted). Again that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Then we have the NHS, Schools .... There is little to no good news coming next year so while Rishi will do badly if he goes for an election in May - it's only going to go downhill from there...
Maybe, if Labour get a plurality in Holyrood in 2026 things will change then but not yet.
Woke began in America (with a special Trans rights British spin off) and it will end there. You can just discern the beginnings now, but it will take a long time unraveling. Cultural Marxism, the seedbed of Wokeness, dates from the early 20th Century
People rightly ask how London Conservatives ended up with someone like Susan Hall as the their Mayoral candidate. There's something of a similar dynamic.
They're both feisty and take no shit. I'd absolutely want them on a debating team.
Unfortunately, they're both largely full of the same substance and neither has shown much administrative competence.
I’d say the post-Sunak leader will either be her or Braverman. If the Tories go for Cleverly they are accepting two terms in opposition
Mordaunt is a fading star, good with swords
And she didn’t deny using the term. The Labour (?) committee member went on to accuse her of comparing it to a disease with an absolute stretch.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-italy-rome-elon-musk-giorgia-meloni-5k37cs3lc
MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR
Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html
Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.
The people who use it as performative dance to build an empire of bullshit, should be blindfolded, and left in a building full of open elevator shafts, exposed wiring and angry leopards.
Without HiViz
The sky over to the south east is a sort of reddish to light purple colour!