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That he should be so lucky – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2023 in General
imageThat he should be so lucky – politicalbetting.com

When I first moved into project management I asked my boss what he thought the top attribute of a successful project manager was. He said: ‘be lucky’, which is undoubtedly correct but hardly actionable.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Interesting piece.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    Second, like Sunak
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    the fact that he has a rock solid seat also helps.... he isnt sweating over a Lab or Lib surge. Quite whether he stays after a defeat is unclear FWIW I would put money on Richmond being the first byelection of the next Parliament
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,976
    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    The BBC are hyping up whether a government with a majority of roughly 80 can get a bill through second reading today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67689442

    Even jollies to the West Indies have apparently been cancelled (which will at least mean MPs don't have to watch England getting beat again).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    Certainly lucky in the past, but as any gambler knows luck doesn't last forever. The longer you go on the more reversion to the mean there is.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,901
    edited December 2023
    The government does not have a majority of 80.
    It's a working majority of 56.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    For anyone else, this would be a humbling experience: the realisation that you’ve risen to the top of your field and you’re simply no good at it.

    But Sunak doesn’t strike me as the sort of person who’s wracked with self doubt. He’ll flame out at the next election, shrug his shoulders, resign his seat and go and work for Elon Musk.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164

    the fact that he has a rock solid seat also helps.... he isnt sweating over a Lab or Lib surge. Quite whether he stays after a defeat is unclear FWIW I would put money on Richmond being the first byelection of the next Parliament

    Well, in the last one, the SDP beat the LibDems. At least that won't happen again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    That was Cammo
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,976
    dixiedean said:

    The government does not have a majority of 80.
    It's a working majority of 56.

    Whilst it is less than I said there are quite a number of "independent" MPs who are in fact Tories but have fallen out of favour for various reasons. https://members.parliament.uk/members/commons?partyid=8

    Its actually curious that there are so many "independent" MPs, currently 18. The same happened in the last Parliament but I do not recall it happening on any scale before that. Party discipline is not what it was.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,434
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    The government does not have a majority of 80.
    It's a working majority of 56.

    Whilst it is less than I said there are quite a number of "independent" MPs who are in fact Tories but have fallen out of favour for various reasons. https://members.parliament.uk/members/commons?partyid=8

    Its actually curious that there are so many "independent" MPs, currently 18. The same happened in the last Parliament but I do not recall it happening on any scale before that. Party discipline is not what it was.
    Is it about party discipline, or about MPs being naughty?
  • You get lucky by adopting a positive attitude and being open-minded about how and where to find the opportunities.

    Like so many things in life it's chance but can be managed by taking action to maximise the number and type of "chances" you get.
  • On topic, good article by @Benpointer

    Sunak knows he has an Impossible wicket. But he's become PM and has a chance to make a stamp, and that's the way I'd look at it.
  • Going off some of the political decisions he has made, it is clearly luck that got him here and not talent...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,198

    You get lucky by adopting a positive attitude and being open-minded about how and where to find the opportunities.

    Like so many things in life it's chance but can be managed by taking action to maximise the number and type of "chances" you get.

    And often by being utterly ruthless. The road to the top is littered by backstabbed corpses.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,793
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    The government does not have a majority of 80.
    It's a working majority of 56.

    Whilst it is less than I said there are quite a number of "independent" MPs who are in fact Tories but have fallen out of favour for various reasons. https://members.parliament.uk/members/commons?partyid=8

    Its actually curious that there are so many "independent" MPs, currently 18. The same happened in the last Parliament but I do not recall it happening on any scale before that. Party discipline is not what it was.
    There are 7 Tory suspendees who, though not whipped, would still be expected to keep one eye on and caucus with the Tory whip.

    So, the nominal majority is 71.
  • DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    The BBC are hyping up whether a government with a majority of roughly 80 can get a bill through second reading today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67689442

    Even jollies to the West Indies have apparently been cancelled (which will at least mean MPs don't have to watch England getting beat again).

    The thing that has really struck me is just how thin skinned he is.

    Chap needs a sense of humour to deal with these things.
    You're either thick-skinned or you're not.

    It's no good telling someone with a thin-skin to get a thicker one, even though they'd love to have it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    That was Cammo
    That's so inaccurate.

    Dave learned in the most heartbreaking way that things doesn't always fall his way in life.
    Eventually.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,865
    Good morning everybody. Even the PM!!

    Are not the independent MPs, quite a mixed bunch? There are two or three nominally Labout, one Plaid Cymru and some SNP, if I remember correctly. Some are former Conservatives if I remember rightly again, at least one has been told to stay away from the House.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,513
    Very nice header.

    So who is the political equivalent of Unlucky Alf?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,865
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    That was Cammo
    That's so inaccurate.

    Dave learned in the most heartbreaking way that things doesn't always fall his way in life.
    Eventually.
    I think that’s a bit hard; his son was seven or eight, when he died of his problems.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Going off some of the political decisions he has made, it is clearly luck that got him here and not talent...

    It’s not what you know, it’s who you know.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,513

    You get lucky by adopting a positive attitude and being open-minded about how and where to find the opportunities.

    Like so many things in life it's chance but can be managed by taking action to maximise the number and type of "chances" you get.

    I suppose that most of us might think twice about trying to chat up the daughter of a billionaire.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    dixiedean said:

    The government does not have a majority of 80.
    It's a working majority of 56.

    Yes, but it's four decades since a government had a bill's second reading defeated on a vote in Parliament.
    https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1986/apr/14/business-of-the-house
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,793
    edited December 2023
    Pro_Rata said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    The government does not have a majority of 80.
    It's a working majority of 56.

    Whilst it is less than I said there are quite a number of "independent" MPs who are in fact Tories but have fallen out of favour for various reasons. https://members.parliament.uk/members/commons?partyid=8

    Its actually curious that there are so many "independent" MPs, currently 18. The same happened in the last Parliament but I do not recall it happening on any scale before that. Party discipline is not what it was.
    There are 7 Tory suspendees who, though not whipped, would still be expected to keep one eye on and caucus with the Tory whip.

    So, the nominal majority is 71.
    Out of time edit: Wikipedia makes no mention of the unnamed suspendee told to stay away, so I guess that makes the effective majority 70
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    That was Cammo
    That's so inaccurate.

    Dave learned in the most heartbreaking way that things doesn't always fall his way in life.
    Eventually.
    I think TSE is referring to the short life of Ivan Cameron.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    You get lucky by adopting a positive attitude and being open-minded about how and where to find the opportunities.

    Like so many things in life it's chance but can be managed by taking action to maximise the number and type of "chances" you get.

    And often by being utterly ruthless. The road to the top is littered by backstabbed corpses.
    This is true, and it's not something I'm willing to do which does slow my career down somewhat.

    However, I am able to look myself in the eye in the mirror every day, which I don't think you can put a price on.
    I agree, and could have got further in terms of hierarchy by being more ruthless, but I didn't want to be that sort of person.
  • Very nice header.

    So who is the political equivalent of Unlucky Alf?

    Unlucky Rishi's conversation today with Tory backbenchers (NSFW)

    https://youtu.be/pV27Xhv0G2g?si=G7OaPMuui_6b9sco&t=47
  • Very nice header.

    So who is the political equivalent of Unlucky Alf?

    In terms of PMs, I'd say May. Even her victory in 2016 worked against her, by being such a default.

    But in general, junior cabinet ministers now or in 2009. Their political prime will be/was spent in Opposition, through no real fault of their own. Claire Coutinho, say.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,301
    The idea of Govt unity is risible.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    That was Cammo
    That's so inaccurate.

    Dave learned in the most heartbreaking way that things doesn't always fall his way in life.
    And I doubt he would have been as effective as he was without that.

    It's the problem with the new meritocrats compared with the old aristocrats.

    The old top one percent tended to recognise, at some level, their fortune and their duty to pay it forward and outward. Rarely well enough, but at some level.

    The new one percent find it easier to believe that success is down to their talent, rather than just being down to being the ones who had the coin come up heads seven times in a row.

    Past performance does not guarantee future returns, as the adverts say.
    It's hard to get a copy nowadays but "The Triumph of the Meritocracy" does include this sort of criticism. Indeed in the book the world of the Meritocrats doesn't end well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    edited December 2023

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    That was Cammo
    That's so inaccurate.

    Dave learned in the most heartbreaking way that things doesn't always fall his way in life.
    Eventually.
    I think that’s a bit hard; his son was seven or eight, when he died of his problems.
    I had forgotten that detail of his earlier non-political life. In politics, he was both lucky and hubristic, and it was some time until it brought him down.

    Just lately, he's turned lucky again, it seems.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Prediction…

    Rishi will win his vote, claim some massive victory for his brave leadership taking on the right . The bill will eventually pass and Rwanda will continue to be challenged. He will claim culture war headlines. He will then deploy all the force of the British state to contrive a single flight to Rwanda with some poor soul on it. He will claim another massive victory despite not achieving a sustainable policy, let alone something that helps anyone . He will be delighted because the Mail will give him his headline, which was what the whole exercise was about all along.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    edited December 2023
    I think the header does slightly over egg the luck of Rishis early life. Yes his parents were reasonably well off, benefitting from a time when two professional salaries could by a good lifestyle and pay day fees at a top school (fees which were slightly more affordable then), but they werent the out of touch rich. The real privilege was two parents at home that valued education and had sound values of ambition and hard work.

    Things really went stratospheric when Rishi moved into the world of the super rich financial speculators.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,274
    edited December 2023

    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    The BBC are hyping up whether a government with a majority of roughly 80 can get a bill through second reading today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67689442

    Even jollies to the West Indies have apparently been cancelled (which will at least mean MPs don't have to watch England getting beat again).

    The thing that has really struck me is just how thin skinned he is.

    Chap needs a sense of humour to deal with these things.
    You're either thick-skinned or you're not.

    It's no good telling someone with a thin-skin to get a thicker one, even though they'd love to have it.
    If you just say "get a thicker skin", that's profoundly unhelpful. But there are teachable things, breathing exercises, scraps of CBT, that have much the same effect.

    Good thing too, or we would be even shorter of teachers and police officers than we are.

    Rishi's problem is that he has never developed those skills because he's never had to. And now he probably has the face he deserves and it's too late for him to learn new tricks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited December 2023

    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    The BBC are hyping up whether a government with a majority of roughly 80 can get a bill through second reading today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67689442

    Even jollies to the West Indies have apparently been cancelled (which will at least mean MPs don't have to watch England getting beat again).

    The thing that has really struck me is just how thin skinned he is.

    Chap needs a sense of humour to deal with these things.
    You're either thick-skinned or you're not.

    It's no good telling someone with a thin-skin to get a thicker one, even though they'd love to have it.
    If you just say "get a thicker skin", that's profoundly unhelpful. But there are teachable things, breathing exercises, scraps of CBT, that have much the same effect.

    Good thing too, or we would be even shorter of teachers and police officers than we are.

    Rishi's problem is that he has never had to develop those skills because he's never had to. And now he probably has the face he deserves and it's too late for him to learn new tricks.
    Yup, I always count to three before responding to somebody who has annoyed/pissed me off.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040

    DavidL said:

    Nice piece. You do wonder if Sunak's good fortune has led to hubris and the assumption that things will inevitably fall his way in life.

    The BBC are hyping up whether a government with a majority of roughly 80 can get a bill through second reading today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67689442

    Even jollies to the West Indies have apparently been cancelled (which will at least mean MPs don't have to watch England getting beat again).

    The thing that has really struck me is just how thin skinned he is.

    Chap needs a sense of humour to deal with these things.
    You're either thick-skinned or you're not.

    It's no good telling someone with a thin-skin to get a thicker one, even though they'd love to have it.
    If you just say "get a thicker skin", that's profoundly unhelpful. But there are teachable things, breathing exercises, scraps of CBT, that have much the same effect.

    Good thing too, or we would be even shorter of teachers and police officers than we are.

    Rishi's problem is that he has never had to develop those skills because he's never had to. And now he probably has the face he deserves and it's too late for him to learn new tricks.
    I certainly developed a thicker skin during my schooldays, so I'm not convinced by Casino's idea that it's not possible.
    It's probably a lot more difficult in later life, though.
  • Thanks for the comments. For the avoidance of doubt I think Sunak is probably well above average intelligence, a hard-working achiever, and a generally decent person (if deeply misguided on many issues imo).

    What he lacks in buckets is judgement and emotional intelligence.

    Which begs a question for PB's IQ expert: what's the point of an IQ or 163 if you lack judgement?

    The red flag is his lack of awareness of using his chopper all the time.

    That he doesn't realise it reinforces every stereotype about him makes me wonder.

  • [Dinner in the officers' mess. The captain is inebriated, but asks apparently seriously]

    Capt. Jack Aubrey : Do you see those two weevils doctor?

    Dr. Stephen Maturin : I do.

    Capt. Jack Aubrey : Which would you choose?

    Dr. Stephen Maturin : [sighs annoyed] Neither; there is not a scrap a difference between them. They are the same species of Curculio.

    Capt. Jack Aubrey : If you had to choose. If you were forced to make a choice. If there was no other response...

    Dr. Stephen Maturin : [Exasperated] Well then if you are going to *push* me...

    [the doctor studies the weevils briefly]

    Dr. Stephen Maturin : ...I would choose the right hand weevil; it has... significant advantage in both length and breadth.

    [the captain thumps his fist in the table]

    Capt. Jack Aubrey : There, I have you! You're completely dished! Do you not know that in the service...

    [pauses]

    Capt. Jack Aubrey : ...one must always choose the lesser of two weevils.

    [the officers burst out in laughter]

    :'D I love these books
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,691

    Good morning everybody. Even the PM!!

    Are not the independent MPs, quite a mixed bunch? There are two or three nominally Labout, one Plaid Cymru and some SNP, if I remember correctly. Some are former Conservatives if I remember rightly again, at least one has been told to stay away from the House.

    I'd be interested (and maybe some PBers who are close to this can advise) as to what happens when a member loses the whip. I assume:

    If the member has decided to break with their party (eg, Dominic Grieve as an example) then the chances of them voting with the party again are probably slim and the whips don't even bother.
    However, if the suspension is due to other reasons (eg, investigation into sexual assault, financial irregulaties and the like) I could easily see a situation where the member is told that whilst they HAVE to have the whip removed, if they want to 'help clear their name' etc etc, then they had still better vote with the party.... or else (ie, they're whipped in all but name).
    This may slightly depend on government majorities. I could see a early 2019 situation, where suspended members are basically told they're still whipped and should treat it as such; and a post 1997 situation, where the PM doesn't care as his majority is bigger than the Conservative seat total and so tells them to do whatever.

    Presumably as well, some members may still feel 'whipped' to support a party if they actually align with most of their values anyway.
  • Judges given green light to use ChatGPT in legal rulings
    AI will summarise reports despite the technology being prone to making up bogus cases

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/12/judges-given-green-light-use-chatgpt-legal-rulings/ (£££)

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310

    Thanks for the comments. For the avoidance of doubt I think Sunak is probably well above average intelligence, a hard-working achiever, and a generally decent person (if deeply misguided on many issues imo).

    What he lacks in buckets is judgement and emotional intelligence.

    Which begs a question for PB's IQ expert: what's the point of an IQ or 163 if you lack judgement?

    The red flag is his lack of awareness of using his chopper all the time.

    That he doesn't realise it reinforces every stereotype about him makes me wonder.
    Using his chopper all the time was also Johnson's weakness, of course :wink: Although not the weakness that did for him in the end
  • Thanks for the comments. For the avoidance of doubt I think Sunak is probably well above average intelligence, a hard-working achiever, and a generally decent person (if deeply misguided on many issues imo).

    What he lacks in buckets is judgement and emotional intelligence.

    Which begs a question for PB's IQ expert: what's the point of an IQ or 163 if you lack judgement?

    The red flag is his lack of awareness of using his chopper all the time.

    Are we talking about Boris
    Rishi, I even wrote a thread on it.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/08/13/rishi-sunaks-chopper-is-going-to-get-him-into-a-lot-of-trouble/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040

    The role of luck is immensely underrated. Being in the right place at the right time and then meeting the right people when you are decide so many lives. Mine, for sure.

    To have been born in North London in the 1960s to two aspirational working class parents was to have been born as a window had just been opened and before it was shut again. I am not sure there will ever be a luckier generation than mine.

    Possibly true.

    Generational health paradox: Millennials are aging faster than boomers
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=364956


  • eekeek Posts: 24,866
    edited December 2023
    It isn’t going well

    About 15 Conservative MPs just arrived for crucial breakfast with Rishi Sunak, including Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, Miriam Cates, Neil O’Brien

    If you are doing Breakfast meetings at 7:30am you have a big problem
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,912

    The role of luck is immensely underrated. Being in the right place at the right time and then meeting the right people when you are decide so many lives. Mine, for sure.

    To have been born in North London in the 1960s to two aspirational working class parents was to have been born as a window had just been opened and before it was shut again. I am not sure there will ever be a luckier generation than mine.

    Yes, all the stars aligned. A well financed, high-morale, top quality universal schooling system and fully-funded university education was the definition of good fortune.

    Since 2010 the decline in state- school budgets has meant the state education system denies children the "luck" generations up to 2010 enjoyed. Still, I suppose it keeps the riff-raff out of the university system and off prestige career pathways.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,912

    Thanks for the comments. For the avoidance of doubt I think Sunak is probably well above average intelligence, a hard-working achiever, and a generally decent person (if deeply misguided on many issues imo).

    What he lacks in buckets is judgement and emotional intelligence.

    Which begs a question for PB's IQ expert: what's the point of an IQ or 163 if you lack judgement?

    Excellent, concise and to-the-point header.

    Have Kylie and Gary Player ever featured together in a PB thread header before today?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    The Republican heads you lose / tails you lose policy on abortion.

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4354860-texas-supreme-court-rules-against-kate-cox-in-abortion-case/
    The Texas Supreme Court has ruled against a lower court order that allowed Kate Cox, a pregnant woman whose fetus was diagnosed with a fatal condition, from having an abortion.
    In a seven-page ruling on Monday, the state Supreme Court said that ​​Travis County District Judge Maya Guerra Gamble’s decision to issue a temporary restraining order last week to allow Cox to have the abortion was a mistake.
    Gamble’s decision on Cox’s medical emergency was put on hold by Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who asked the state Supreme Court to intervene in the matter. The Supreme Court temporarily blocked the lower court’s ruling on Friday.
    “A woman who meets the medical-necessity exception need not seek a court order to obtain an abortion,” the court ruling says. “Under the law, it is a doctor who must decide that a woman is suffering from a life-threatening condition during a pregnancy, raising the necessity for an abortion to save her life or to prevent impairment of a major bodily function.”
    “The law leaves to physicians—not judges—both the discretion and the responsibility to exercise their reasonable medical judgment, given the unique facts and circumstances of each patient.”
    The court also found that Cox’s doctor – Damla Karsan – “asked a court to pre-authorize the abortion yet she could not, or at least did not, attest to the court that Ms. Cox’s condition poses the risks the exception requires.”
    “These laws reflect the policy choice that the Legislature has made, and the courts must respect that choice,” the court said in its ruling.
    According to state law, a doctor who performed an abortion procedure could be sentenced to life in prison...

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    Will any court in the UK accept the principle that the courts can review and question whether Switzerland is a safe country, but can't do the same with Rwanda?

    No.
  • Jonathan said:

    Prediction…

    Rishi will win his vote, claim some massive victory for his brave leadership taking on the right . The bill will eventually pass and Rwanda will continue to be challenged. He will claim culture war headlines. He will then deploy all the force of the British state to contrive a single flight to Rwanda with some poor soul on it. He will claim another massive victory despite not achieving a sustainable policy, let alone something that helps anyone . He will be delighted because the Mail will give him his headline, which was what the whole exercise was about all along.

    And he will still get demolished at the next election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    This will be interesting.

    Is a president immune from prosecution? The Supreme Court will decide
    https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/4354639-is-a-president-immune-from-prosecution-the-supreme-court-will-decide/
    The most promising criminal case against former President Trump is the election interference case in Washington, D.C., before Judge Tanya Chutkan. The judge is committed to a March 4 trial date, one day before the Super Tuesday primaries. Chutkan has already made the first moves toward jury selection, imposed a gag order (now essentially affirmed on appeal), and rejected on grounds of presidential immunity and double jeopardy Trump’s bid to dismiss the indictment.
    But Trump is trying everything he can to delay the trial until after the 2024 election. He vowed to take the case to the Supreme Court, where two justices lean way to the right and three more were appointed by Trump himself.
    In a stunning and risky gambit, special counsel Jack Smith today asked the Supreme Court to decide this issue of presidential immunity right away, choosing to leapfrog the D.C. Circuit in the interests of speed and go directly to the court of last resort, following the scenario that occurred in the famous 1974 former President Nixon tapes case...

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    eek said:

    It isn’t going well

    About 15 Conservative MPs just arrived for crucial breakfast with Rishi Sunak, including Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, Miriam Cates, Neil O’Brien

    If you are doing Breakfast meetings at 7:30am you have a big problem

    If you have to take breakfast meetings with that crew, is it even worth being PM ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,463
    edited December 2023

    The role of luck is immensely underrated. Being in the right place at the right time and then meeting the right people when you are decide so many lives. Mine, for sure.

    To have been born in North London in the 1960s to two aspirational working class parents was to have been born as a window had just been opened and before it was shut again. I am not sure there will ever be a luckier generation than mine.

    Much the same here.

    Now ...

    I was interested to see that the current campaigning against the closure of all Aberdeen UNiversity's modern languages (bar a rump for little more than support of other schools) is in part because so many students live at home for often economic reasons, so taking out the School makes a big hole in educational provision in that area. And that's in Scotland with tuition fees usually paid.
  • Another rise in NHS employment to 1.984m:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/timeseries/c9lg/pse

    Up 28k on the quarter
    Up 84k on the year
    Up 258k on GE2019
    Up 400k on 2016 referendum
    Up 431k on GE2010

    If the Conservatives had the slightest bit of political sense they would be repeating that at every opportunity.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    It isn’t going well

    About 15 Conservative MPs just arrived for crucial breakfast with Rishi Sunak, including Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, Miriam Cates, Neil O’Brien

    If you are doing Breakfast meetings at 7:30am you have a big problem

    If you have to take breakfast meetings with that crew, is it even worth being PM ?
    Depends what he says to them.

    If he tells them he will call an election, and they will have no influence over the next Government (if they keep their seats), then maybe.

    William Hague in The Times today

    Tory rebels should beware what they wish for
    Opposition is miserable but that is where the Conservatives are heading unless they prioritise functioning government
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    Another rise in NHS employment to 1.984m:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/timeseries/c9lg/pse

    Up 28k on the quarter
    Up 84k on the year
    Up 258k on GE2019
    Up 400k on 2016 referendum
    Up 431k on GE2010

    If the Conservatives had the slightest bit of political sense they would be repeating that at every opportunity.

    Would the media be interested?
    Does Scott paste this information?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,463

    Another rise in NHS employment to 1.984m:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/timeseries/c9lg/pse

    Up 28k on the quarter
    Up 84k on the year
    Up 258k on GE2019
    Up 400k on 2016 referendum
    Up 431k on GE2010

    If the Conservatives had the slightest bit of political sense they would be repeating that at every opportunity.

    Is that numbers of persons, or corrected for FTE? Not clear.

    Also, the databse for the NHS is meaningless without including also contractors and agency staff.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793

    I am not sure there will ever be a luckier generation than mine.

    Surely the generation that will live on Mars while AI does all the work...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Very enjoyable header!

    You hit the bulls-eye.
  • Carnyx said:

    Another rise in NHS employment to 1.984m:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/timeseries/c9lg/pse

    Up 28k on the quarter
    Up 84k on the year
    Up 258k on GE2019
    Up 400k on 2016 referendum
    Up 431k on GE2010

    If the Conservatives had the slightest bit of political sense they would be repeating that at every opportunity.

    Is that numbers of persons, or corrected for FTE? Not clear.

    Also, the databse for the NHS is meaningless without including also contractors and agency staff.
    Without all data it is incomplete but certainly not meaningless.

    The full time equivalent numbers are lower but show a similar rise:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/timeseries/g7gl/pse
  • Nigelb said:

    The Republican heads you lose / tails you lose policy on abortion.

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4354860-texas-supreme-court-rules-against-kate-cox-in-abortion-case/
    The Texas Supreme Court has ruled against a lower court order that allowed Kate Cox, a pregnant woman whose fetus was diagnosed with a fatal condition, from having an abortion.
    In a seven-page ruling on Monday, the state Supreme Court said that ​​Travis County District Judge Maya Guerra Gamble’s decision to issue a temporary restraining order last week to allow Cox to have the abortion was a mistake.
    Gamble’s decision on Cox’s medical emergency was put on hold by Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who asked the state Supreme Court to intervene in the matter. The Supreme Court temporarily blocked the lower court’s ruling on Friday.
    “A woman who meets the medical-necessity exception need not seek a court order to obtain an abortion,” the court ruling says. “Under the law, it is a doctor who must decide that a woman is suffering from a life-threatening condition during a pregnancy, raising the necessity for an abortion to save her life or to prevent impairment of a major bodily function.”
    “The law leaves to physicians—not judges—both the discretion and the responsibility to exercise their reasonable medical judgment, given the unique facts and circumstances of each patient.”
    The court also found that Cox’s doctor – Damla Karsan – “asked a court to pre-authorize the abortion yet she could not, or at least did not, attest to the court that Ms. Cox’s condition poses the risks the exception requires.”
    “These laws reflect the policy choice that the Legislature has made, and the courts must respect that choice,” the court said in its ruling.
    According to state law, a doctor who performed an abortion procedure could be sentenced to life in prison...

    No wonder they are going to need Handmaids. No women with a brain will want to have sex in GOP America. Too much risk of dying.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    I wonder if attitudes to luck are one of the biggest dividing lines between left and right. The right maintains the myth that personal hard work and grit is all you need for success, whereas the left would argue you also need luck and society behind you.

    For the right if you fail you only have yourself to blame, a lifestyle choice if you will. Whereas the left see luck and connections playing a big, often decisive part.
  • You get lucky by adopting a positive attitude and being open-minded about how and where to find the opportunities.

    Like so many things in life it's chance but can be managed by taking action to maximise the number and type of "chances" you get.

    Yes, if we all work hard enough, we can have wealthy grand-parents.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,302

    Good morning everybody. Even the PM!!

    Are not the independent MPs, quite a mixed bunch? There are two or three nominally Labout, one Plaid Cymru and some SNP, if I remember correctly. Some are former Conservatives if I remember rightly again, at least one has been told to stay away from the House.

    I'd be interested (and maybe some PBers who are close to this can advise) as to what happens when a member loses the whip. I assume:

    If the member has decided to break with their party (eg, Dominic Grieve as an example) then the chances of them voting with the party again are probably slim and the whips don't even bother.
    However, if the suspension is due to other reasons (eg, investigation into sexual assault, financial irregulaties and the like) I could easily see a situation where the member is told that whilst they HAVE to have the whip removed, if they want to 'help clear their name' etc etc, then they had still better vote with the party.... or else (ie, they're whipped in all but name).
    This may slightly depend on government majorities. I could see a early 2019 situation, where suspended members are basically told they're still whipped and should treat it as such; and a post 1997 situation, where the PM doesn't care as his majority is bigger than the Conservative seat total and so tells them to do whatever.

    Presumably as well, some members may still feel 'whipped' to support a party if they actually align with most of their values anyway.
    In 1997-2010 suspension was relatively rare and I don't think I knew anyone who had been subject to it. But your analysis looks right. There may be some who are very embittered about "unfair suspension" but otherwise it seems natural to vote in line with your general outlook.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,463

    You get lucky by adopting a positive attitude and being open-minded about how and where to find the opportunities.

    Like so many things in life it's chance but can be managed by taking action to maximise the number and type of "chances" you get.

    Yes, if we all work hard enough, we can have wealthy grand-parents.
    And ones who didn't get dementia, so lots of lovely tax-free inheritance.
  • Mr. Jonathan, it might be, but from my own perspective I think the impact of luck varies a lot too. Some people do their best but are buggered by misfortune utterly unrelated to their actions or good character. Many work ahead and achieve success without any notable stroke of luck.
  • Success usually requires both talent and luck. But the more luck you have, the less talent you need. It strikes me that Sunak's problem is that it's all happened too easily and too fast. Maybe in a sense he has been too lucky for his own good.
    He's totally lying about his WhatsApp messages, anyway, the slippery toad.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164

    Success usually requires both talent and luck. But the more luck you have, the less talent you need. It strikes me that Sunak's problem is that it's all happened too easily and too fast. Maybe in a sense he has been too lucky for his own good.
    He's totally lying about his WhatsApp messages, anyway, the slippery toad.

    His very rapid ascent to the top is both lucky and unlucky. Like Hague, he got the leadership at the 'wrong' time.

    Streeting had better look and learn, tipped as he is so strongly as next Labour Leader without yet having done any sort of heavyweight job.
  • The Lib Dems got lucky in that there were general elections in 2017 and 2019.
    If the FTPA had been strictly applied, they would have been forgotten about by 2020.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    Peers call for urgent overhaul of secondary education in England
    Lords report says there is too much learning by rote and many key Tory changes should be reversed
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/dec/12/peers-call-urgent-overhaul-secondary-education-england
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,116
    This happy-go-lucky header needs a soundtrack
    https://youtu.be/cgoZV2yRo54
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mr. Jonathan, it might be, but from my own perspective I think the impact of luck varies a lot too. Some people do their best but are buggered by misfortune utterly unrelated to their actions or good character. Many work ahead and achieve success without any notable stroke of luck.

    If you have good health or were born into a stable family in the West at the latter end of the 20th century you have won the lottery of life.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075
    Pro_Rata said:

    Does having a breakfast meeting mean Rishi thinks he will win them over easy?

    I see what you did there
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,912

    Another rise in NHS employment to 1.984m:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/timeseries/c9lg/pse

    Up 28k on the quarter
    Up 84k on the year
    Up 258k on GE2019
    Up 400k on 2016 referendum
    Up 431k on GE2010

    If the Conservatives had the slightest bit of political sense they would be repeating that at every opportunity.

    Would the media be interested?
    Does Scott paste this information?
    I am old enough to remember the PB glitterati getting exercised by last night's good Tory poll. We were over it like a rash until the R and W which we all ignored because the Labour lead remained intact.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,036
    A
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, it might be, but from my own perspective I think the impact of luck varies a lot too. Some people do their best but are buggered by misfortune utterly unrelated to their actions or good character. Many work ahead and achieve success without any notable stroke of luck.

    If you have good health or were born into a stable family in the West at the latter end of the 20th century you have won the lottery of life.
    Especially if you are born in England. Because God (as Admiral Fisher* observed) is an Englishman.

    *Fisher must have been one of the few people ever told by an Archbishop of Canterbury to attend church… less.
  • Nigelb said:

    Peers call for urgent overhaul of secondary education in England
    Lords report says there is too much learning by rote and many key Tory changes should be reversed
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/dec/12/peers-call-urgent-overhaul-secondary-education-england

    It seems like only last weekend we were lauding the English school system over the Scots, and now the House of Unelected Has-beens (ht Sunil) wants to scrap it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,001
    The header makes a great point about Rishi Sunak. It's been a remarkably friction-free assent to the top. Has a politician so box-fresh, so unscarred, ever before become PM? Certainly not in modern times. Blair and Cameron were both young but they'd had years in politics inc leading and reforming their parties as LOTOs. There was none of this with Sunak. He's fluked it really. And this is hurting him now. He looks overmatched by the job.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,116

    A

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, it might be, but from my own perspective I think the impact of luck varies a lot too. Some people do their best but are buggered by misfortune utterly unrelated to their actions or good character. Many work ahead and achieve success without any notable stroke of luck.

    If you have good health or were born into a stable family in the West at the latter end of the 20th century you have won the lottery of life.
    Especially if you are born in England. Because God (as Admiral Fisher* observed) is an Englishman.

    *Fisher must have been one of the few people ever told by an Archbishop of Canterbury to attend church… less.
    Eh? Geoffrey Fisher WAS the 99th Archbishop of Canterbury (1945 to 1961)

  • Good article. However, it's a bit reverse-lottery winner logic. It describes without explaining. Sunak is PM through circumstances mostly outside his control - though not entirely: you can't continually fail upwards without *some* ability (Liz Truss's survival as a cabinet minister under Cameron, May and Johnson is a case in point). To that extent, someone was always going to succeed Johnson or Truss, and Sunak happened to be in the right place at the right time. That is certainly partly a form of luck but again, not entirely. Brown was in the right place to succeed Blair in 2007, and had been since 1994, and made bloody sure he stayed there.

    As for luckier prime ministers? Well, how about Blair? A gilded path to No 10 is a huge advantage but what you inherit - both in party and country - matters even more. And Sunak has a right pile of manure on both counts.
  • Success usually requires both talent and luck. But the more luck you have, the less talent you need. It strikes me that Sunak's problem is that it's all happened too easily and too fast. Maybe in a sense he has been too lucky for his own good.
    He's totally lying about his WhatsApp messages, anyway, the slippery toad.

    No, Sunak's problem is the same as May's, and Cameron's, and John Major's. There is a group of Conservative MPs obsessed by Europe to the exclusion of anything else, even the continuance of their own government. And for the most part they are wrong about Europe.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,036
    geoffw said:

    A

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, it might be, but from my own perspective I think the impact of luck varies a lot too. Some people do their best but are buggered by misfortune utterly unrelated to their actions or good character. Many work ahead and achieve success without any notable stroke of luck.

    If you have good health or were born into a stable family in the West at the latter end of the 20th century you have won the lottery of life.
    Especially if you are born in England. Because God (as Admiral Fisher* observed) is an Englishman.

    *Fisher must have been one of the few people ever told by an Archbishop of Canterbury to attend church… less.
    Eh? Geoffrey Fisher WAS the 99th Archbishop of Canterbury (1945 to 1961)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Fisher,_1st_Baron_Fisher

    Often described as “Mad Jack” Fisher.

    He would, as a junior Admiral, walk round the building, wearing as sign saying “I have no work to do”

    His work on productivity was notable.

    When told it would take a week to change one main armament gun barrel on a battleship, he had his desk and papers setup on the quarterdeck of the ship, facing the work.

    Sat there through the day - had lunch served there etc. When the job was completed in the one day, he sent a signal round the fleet congratulating the ship’s crew for their hard work.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    W
    Carnyx said:

    The role of luck is immensely underrated. Being in the right place at the right time and then meeting the right people when you are decide so many lives. Mine, for sure.

    To have been born in North London in the 1960s to two aspirational working class parents was to have been born as a window had just been opened and before it was shut again. I am not sure there will ever be a luckier generation than mine.

    Much the same here.

    Now ...

    I was interested to see that the current campaigning against the closure of all Aberdeen UNiversity's modern languages (bar a rump for little more than support of other schools) is in part because so many students live at home for often economic reasons, so taking out the School makes a big hole in educational provision in that area. And that's in Scotland with tuition fees usually paid.
    This is a part of a cultural catastrophe in the UK, and I don't think turning it round (suppose anyone wants to) will be fast.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @benatipsos

    New @IpsosUK polling out today to show just how positively or negatively the government is viewed among its own voters on #Immigration…. This whole campaign has blown up in their faces….
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @BethRigby

    One rebel source tells me that over the bacon butties, PM was “pointing finger at Boris, Liz, Suella and Rob” over past failures. “Didn’t go that well.”
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 116
    Scary scenes in Downing Street. Remake of Shaun of the Dead?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @matt_dathan

    Excl: Migrants could delay their deportation to Rwanda by more than a year, according to a leaked Home Office assessment.

    Document prepared for a meeting in September assesses how many days each legal stage could delay flights.

    Ranges from 17-420 days:
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    Is there any aspect of the last 13 years of Conservative government that hasn't been an abysmal failure - even if held to their own standards? The idea that austerity meant we would have a stronger economy if bad things came our way - proven untrue with Brexit and Covid. The changes to the NHS have demonstrably worsened the service, not made it better. Infrastructure has been left to fall apart, and now (as everyone said at the time it would be) it has been concluded that their changes to education over the last decade have done more harm than good:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/dec/12/peers-call-urgent-overhaul-secondary-education-england

    Can anyone point to a single success of the prevailing Conservative political hegemony since the coalition that hasn't turned into ash in their hands? Even many Brexiteers are unhappy with the outcomes of us leaving the EU; either because it isn't "real Brexit" or because there is a distinct lack of sunlit uplands!
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630

    Nigelb said:

    Peers call for urgent overhaul of secondary education in England
    Lords report says there is too much learning by rote and many key Tory changes should be reversed
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/dec/12/peers-call-urgent-overhaul-secondary-education-england

    It seems like only last weekend we were lauding the English school system over the Scots, and now the House of Unelected Has-beens (ht Sunil) wants to scrap it.
    I started university just as many of Goves education reforms were starting, and by the time I had finished my Masters all the teachers who said I should go into teaching because I would be good at it and enjoy it were telling me to not go near it with a 10 foot barge pole because all the joy had been sucked out of the curriculum and they were starting to hate the job. Now the feedback I get from my family in secondary school is that of pressurised, boring, rote teaching.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,463
    edited December 2023
    148grss said:

    Is there any aspect of the last 13 years of Conservative government that hasn't been an abysmal failure - even if held to their own standards? The idea that austerity meant we would have a stronger economy if bad things came our way - proven untrue with Brexit and Covid. The changes to the NHS have demonstrably worsened the service, not made it better. Infrastructure has been left to fall apart, and now (as everyone said at the time it would be) it has been concluded that their changes to education over the last decade have done more harm than good:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/dec/12/peers-call-urgent-overhaul-secondary-education-england

    Can anyone point to a single success of the prevailing Conservative political hegemony since the coalition that hasn't turned into ash in their hands? Even many Brexiteers are unhappy with the outcomes of us leaving the EU; either because it isn't "real Brexit" or because there is a distinct lack of sunlit uplands!

    Gay marriage tbf - and even that vitiated by the reactionary refusal to make the state church toe the line, I suppose.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @Steven_Swinford
    ERG will meet this evening to formally decide position on the Rwanda vote

    Discussions still ongoing but general feeling is that it will abstain rather than vote against

    But there's a world in which mass abstentions/ opposition from ERG, New Conservatives & Common sense group tips over 59-vote threshold needed to kill the bill...
This discussion has been closed.