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The next Chancellor – politicalbetting.com

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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,078
    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    Its ironic that if the government get net migration down to 300,000 that would be seen as a success . And yet that amount was apparently far too much before the referendum.

    Let’s be blunt if Leave had said out of the EU immigration would be the same they would have lost .

    People can peddle the sovereignty guff all they like , it was immigration that was the decisive factor driven on by the right wing press.

    Uncontrolled inward migration was an issue. There were many issues that caused people to vote to leave the EU. As Lord Ashcroft’s poll showed. There was not one decisive issue.

    It was a coalition of voters with different reasons for leave. If it had been a single issue vote based on migration leave would have lost.
    If Leave said net migration would not change post Brexit they would have lost . That’s my point .
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,336
    Taz said:

    ...

    isam said:

    MJW said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    The crazy thing about the stop the boats obsession is that there must be a relatively easy way of reducing net migration to less than half a million. Can’t actually believe I’m typing ‘reducing net migration to less than half a million.

    Why bother with the boats when the legal migration is probably more of a concern?

    Scared of the king of the jungle I think

    Probably. I assume it's because they, er, assume, that the public overestimates how many come by what route, and so even though stopping the boats would not make as big a dent in the figures as the public may think, it looks tougher and thus more 'effective', and that would therefore be popular even if the overall number remains higher than the public say they want it to be.
    It's also because they almost certainly know significantly reducing legal migration would put a large hole in their economic figures and put huge pressure in the short term on public services. But can't admit that as it would undermine a major Brexit justification.

    If it's possible to shift to a low migration model at all, it's not going to happen in a year, and not without significant upheaval. So focus on the bit you might get some wins on, and that most irks your voters, in the hope they don't notice you're pretty reliant on the other bit to make everything add up and keep turning.
    Can only speak for myself, but the boat people are a problem all around Europe & I can understand how difficult it is to stop, especially with all the emotional blackmail thrown at them from people who pretend they believe they’re all really asylums seekers rather than economic migrants

    But we did vote to Leave the EU in order to reduce migration, they do have control over it, and have decided to increase it. That is more disappointing
    But we are getting rid of the "forrin". Only last week there was a French woman who had lived in Leicester for 42 years, didn't get her paperwork in order and the Border Force did their work. The Government are getting to terms with those people you Brexiters wanted gone. Hats off to them.

    Your problem is the outward flow of old British expats retiring to Spain has been stopped dead in its tracks. Them leaving would have counteracted the Bangladeshi nurses and doctors Boris promised us.
    Shame for this French woman, shame also for the many Brits who lived in Europe who ended up being kicked out,

    At least the U.K. allowed anyone who wanted to stay here the opportunity to do so. Our former European partners were less accommodating.
    I know some were more accommodating than others in terms of getting the paperwork done and deadlines, but which EU countries didnt allow any already resident UK citizens the opportunity to stay?
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    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Late to the party, but as a leftie I would like to acknowledge that the current government has one absolutely brilliant policy:

    The £2 single bus fare cap.

    (Though they're so quiet about it, it's hardly surprising that they get little or no credit for it. Instead, they just go on about failing to stop the boats).

    Yes.
    It's a total sign that they are utterly out of touch.
    Headed on the piss in the Toon for Xmas do. Colleagues all booking taxis at £10 a head each way.
    Me. I'm on the bus. Not a single one of them knew it was £2.
    We’re off to Birtley, of all places, for a meal tonight. We will catch the bus there and back. It’s a bargain.
    Would have gone to the Tanfield Railway back in October, had it not been for the Go-Ahead bus strike :angry:
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