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The next Chancellor – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2023 in General
imageThe next Chancellor – politicalbetting.com

This market from Ladbrokes is probably a market to avoid. I can understand why Rachel Reeves is the favourite but there are rumours that Sunak wishes to preempt Starmer and have his former adviser Claire Coutinho as the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer but I would want better odds than 2/1.

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Comments

  • Lee Anderson as Chancellor of the Exchequer, you read it here first.
  • According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?
  • Primary school receives letter 'threatening action at 9am tomorrow' as police launch probe
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/primary-school-receives-letter-threatening-31624192

    An Islamic faith school and mosque closed by Gaza-related threats because as we all know, Hamas is masterminded by 9-year-old Sameena from Ilford.
  • According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,042

    Primary school receives letter 'threatening action at 9am tomorrow' as police launch probe
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/primary-school-receives-letter-threatening-31624192

    An Islamic faith school and mosque closed by Gaza-related threats because as we all know, Hamas is masterminded by 9-year-old Sameena from Ilford.

    A chum of Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon, I presume.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,956
    If it's true that Hunt won't stand for re-election then it's likely we will see a new Chancellor before the election. But surely it will have to be someone with a bit more experience than many on that list. I think I'd find the 16/1 on Grant Shapps tempting. He's much less likely to be found out under the intense media scrutiny of an election campaign that most of the unknowns on that list.
  • According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    No it wasn't.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,082
    fpt
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    TOPPING said:

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can Richard Nabavi please please come back?

    I need someone remotely intelligent and knowledgeable to argue with, this is like potato printing at a Montessori

    "Wah-wah, nobody agrees with my stupid alt-right opinions. Wah-wah, I'm going to flounce off if you're all going to point out the flaws in my posts. Wah-wah!"
    Count yourself lucky. I’m actually giving you a second chance, which is more than you deserve, TBH
    Sorry, missed all this. What are you trying to argue? That if Russia were America and Ukraine was Mexico and America was China, that Puti ... sorry Biden would do what Putin has done?

    In which case ooo er. Very interesting. And you do have to wonder.
    I never thought I’d be so glad to argue with @kinabalu!

    But yes, that is what i am arguing. America absolutely perceives itself as an imperial power, AND still as THE superpower in many ways, and there is simply no way they would politically, economically or militarily accept Mexico uniting in an anti-American military alliance with Beijing. It is inconceivable, and any president that allowed this to happen would be utterly trounced in the consequent election

    So, democratically it would not happen, either

    I mean, America barely tolerates Chinese hegemony over the South China Sea and the near-Chinese Pacific, and we wonder if America would go to war over Taiwan

    Mexico???? Get real

    The wider point relates to Russian self-perception, In many ways Russia perceives itself as a Great Power and a near-peer of the USA, only recently stripped of superpower status. Many - me included - would say this is delusional, Russia is much closer to ex imperial states like France or Britain than China or the USA, nonetheless there is that streak in Russian thinking, and you can either handle it carefully, and avoid wars, and let Russia gently decline any road, or you can provoke the wounded Bear, and make it lash out, which helps no one. My suggestion - and it is only that - is that we maybe provoked Russia unwisely when we extended NATO to the Russian border

    We could have been cleverer and got what wanted with a more emollient soothing of wounded Russian pride. Now we have half a million dead in Ukraine and a likely new Korea, divided for decades

    Annoyingly, as I love a good argument, I find this hard to disagree with. But it’s all an argument about the past, and doesn’t address the point that Putin seems to take any compromise as sign of weakness. So given where we are, accepting a perceived ‘win’ for Russia at this stage is likely to take us further into the hole we’re in, rather than get us out of it.

    Wind back 30 years, and I think you’d be onto something.
    If the West had welcomed Russia into NATO and all Western institutions after the fall of the Berlin wall the past 30 years would have been remarkably different. Instead they told Russia that they (the West, specifically the US) would be happy to be the world's only policeman thank you very much.

    Does not excuse Russia's actions but explains them. I'll leave Mexico to one side but there is definitely a perspective from Russia which believes it is being encircled.

    https://www.france24.com/en/russia/20220130-did-nato-betray-russia-by-expanding-to-the-east

    "To understand Russia’s claims of betrayal, it is necessary to review the reassurances then US secretary of state James A. Baker made to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev during a meeting on February 9, 1990. In a discussion on the status of a reunited Germany, the two men agreed that NATO would not extend past the territory of East Germany, a promise repeated by NATO’s secretary general in a speech on May 17 that same year in Brussels.

    Russia and the West finally struck an agreement in September that would allow NATO to station its troops beyond the Iron Curtain. However, the deal only concerned a reunified Germany, with further eastward expansion being inconceivable at the time."
    Yes, and I have some sympathy for those in Russia arguing this. I also have sympathy for the argument that the world only got Putin (or at least kept him for so long) because NATO backed Russia into a corner.

    (Snip)
    I think that argument's bogus for one big reason: it assumes Putin is (or ever was) a faithful actor.

    It's clear that his mindset is of an imperialist, expansionist Russia. This is sadly probably not a new thing, and is made worse by the fact that even with is natural resources, Russia does not have the power to attain those goals.

    Sa I'd argue *whatever* we did, short of abandoning Eastern Europe to his regime, he would have used against us. If a deal had been done for Russia to join NATO, he would have undermined it from within: because a weakened NATO would naturally make Russia appear stronkier.

    He's not interested in Russian security. He wants Russia to be *great*. Those are two very different things.
    I agree with your assessment of Putin. I just wonder whether, in a counterfactual Russia that had become more ‘Western’, Putin might not have amassed the power that he has done. In an ideal world we would be dealing with a different Russian leader now.
    Obama characterised him as '...an old-fashioned Russian Nationalist'. I think that's pretty accurate as far as it goes, and is entirely consistent with the above.

    He is of course lots of other things too, mostly pretty nasty, but it is the Nationalism that is the driving force and makes him both dangerous and difficult to deal with.

    I'm afraid I don't buy the Gorbachev line that Russia would have been a nicer place if the West had treated it nicer after the break-up of the Union. When has Russia ever ever played nicely on the international stage?
    We in the west actually did a lot - and spent a lot of money - in the 1990s and 2000s to try to bring Russia back from its doldrums. From things like space cooperation, to decommissioning old nuclear subs, to buying their darned oil and gas. There's this idea developing that we weren't 'nice' to Russia. It's bogus.

    What it means is that we didn't bend over backwards to give Putin everything he wanted.
    It's also a means of denying Russia's own culpability and responsibility for its own actions and choices, post-communism.
    This is critical. You are right. It is Russia's fault and no one else for what it did post-communism. Whether good or bad. But I am seeking to explain not excuse. It is a contributory factor, imo, that Russia was shut out from the Western brotherhood of nations in a way that might have built resentment. That does not excuse its behaviour since nor make its invasion of Ukraine "right". But it helps to explain it. It is also important to understand its motivation from a non-Western free market liberal perspective.

    I appreciate that this analysis, such as it is, deriving mostly from googleable sources, gets our Ukraine Brigade up in arms.

    Likewise (@kini talking to you here), it is important to understand the motivations for Hamas in its actions against Israel. It is both aggrieved at its perceived injustice of the land split, and also wishes to exterminate the land of Israel for some reason or other. I can understand both these views without believing that they are justified in holding them.
    Hmm. But on Russia you try very hard indeed to 'understand'. Whereas on the Palestinians your 'understanding' is always couched in a way (as here) which leaves no doubt whatsoever about your feelings on the matter (heavily heavily pro Israel). Eg whenever some poster or other seeks to contextualize the Hamas attack of Oct 7th into the frame of the overall decades long Palestinian struggle for sovereignty you (if you're around) will be in like a whippet with some sark or an attempted takedown.
    I am flattered that you place my posts into a hierarchy of importance.

    Let me make it easy for you. I understand clearly that Hamas wants the elimination of Israel and that it believes that Israel stole and now occupies its land. As they themselves and their supporters state clearly. It, and many actors in the. middle east have wanted to do this for decades, nay, hundreds and thousands of years. It is, at its heart, jew hatred. Whether you start the clock on who owns the land in 1948 or 1973 or 2006 or 70ADThat is the root cause imo of the current conflict.

    Russia I believe thinks that Ukraine is a part of Russia. Do I agree with that? Not sure but it stems from a vision of Greater Russia which at some point took hold.

    Very happy to debate with you if you believe that Ukraine is not and never has been a part of Greater Russia and if you believe that Jew hatred is a legitimate reason for wanting Israel pushed into the sea.

    As for who the next Chancellor is going to be, it's anyone's guess.
  • According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    No it wasn't.
    Yes it was, he tried to abolish the role of Lord Chancellor in a reshuffle until it was pointed to him he would need to pass primary legislation to abolish the role.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,917

    Lee Anderson as Chancellor of the Exchequer, you read it here first.

    And I hope to never read it again.

    While it would surely consign the Tories to the (loony) bin forever, I'm not sure my portfolio would appreciate the unbridled chaos such a move would cause in the markets. It'd make the Trussterf*ck look like strong and stable government.
  • According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    Ken Clarke, for one.

    Ch(DoL) 1987-8
    Ch/Ex 1993-7
    Ld Ch 2010-12
    Fantastic.
  • Jago Hazzard picks his top ten tube stations.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g8FHLJ94P4

    OK it's a bit off-topic but at least two of the stations have Wikipedia page photos by PB's @Sunil_Prasannan and at least three do not. Sharp minds can probably tell at what point I got tired of looking.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,978

    According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It is a completely unfair advantage in the current Cabinet set up to be capable of thought and verbal reasoning. No wonder he's been running things but it must have been like herding cats.
  • Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    I don't think anyone gives a f**k what a bunch of angry, antisemites on loudspeakers think about Keir Starmer.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,054
    Maybe Suella Braverman could become prime minister and also hold all the great offices - including Chancellor?

    Probably for life, if she thought she could get away with it.
  • According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    No it wasn't.
    Yes it was, he tried to abolish the role of Lord Chancellor in a reshuffle until it was pointed to him he would need to pass primary legislation to abolish the role.
    Lord Chancellor was not a non-partisan role.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited December 2023

    According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    No it wasn't.
    Yes it was, he tried to abolish the role of Lord Chancellor in a reshuffle until it was pointed to him he would need to pass primary legislation to abolish the role.
    Lord Chancellor was not a non-partisan role.
    Yes it was, you picked an eminent lawyer for the role, usually somebody who isn't a traditional politician.

    Since Blair, non lawyers or his ex flat mate can be Lord Chancellor which is a huge mistake.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,919
    Gorgeous Tories smashing election donations out of the park. Labour slacking at a third of the Tory total for three months. Everyone loves the Tories!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/07/conservatives-labour-election-fund-john-sainsbury
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    edited December 2023

    According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    Ken Clarke, for one.

    Ch(DoL) 1987-8
    Ch/Ex 1993-7
    Ld Ch 2010-12
    Fantastic.
    Clarke may be the only one to have done it but I've only checked back to the mid-19th century as I don't know the list of Chancellors of the Exchequer well enough before that and can't be bothered cross-referencing in that detail. However, all three offices are very ancient so it's quite possible some others managed the hat-trick.

    Maybe worth noting in passing that John Simon went straight from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Lord Chancellor in 1940. However, while his cabinet career spanned 35 years, the Duchy of Lancaster passed him by.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,978
    Sunak is catastrophically weak in a variety of ways. As I pointed out yesterday one possible exception is that he doesn't actually have a terrible record to defend in terms of the economy but nearly all of that and certainly any credit that is going (not much) is thanks to Hunt. I think (why does this remind me of my cricket comments) that he is unsackable which makes Reeves pretty much nailed on. Even at those odds I think she is pretty good value.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,137
    edited December 2023

    According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    No it wasn't.
    Yes it was, he tried to abolish the role of Lord Chancellor in a reshuffle until it was pointed to him he would need to pass primary legislation to abolish the role.
    Lord Chancellor was not a non-partisan role.
    Yes it was, you picked an eminent lawyer for the role, usually somebody who isn't a traditional politician.

    Since Blair, non lawyers can be Lord Chancellor which is a huge mistake.
    Here's the list. Notice how the Lord Chancellor changed with the colour of government.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lord_chancellors_and_lord_keepers

    ETA I'd agree Blair ballsed up the constitution.
  • Gorgeous Tories smashing election donations out of the park. Labour slacking at a third of the Tory total for three months. Everyone loves the Tories!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/07/conservatives-labour-election-fund-john-sainsbury

    The Cabinet could probably throw in a million pounds each.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,452
    Off topic, but I got so much grim enjoyment from this cartoon about the Loser, that I wanted to share it: https://www.gocomics.com/michaelramirez/2023/12/07
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,334
    edited December 2023

    Jago Hazzard picks his top ten tube stations.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g8FHLJ94P4

    OK it's a bit off-topic but at least two of the stations have Wikipedia page photos by PB's @Sunil_Prasannan and at least three do not. Sharp minds can probably tell at what point I got tired of looking.

    He makes fantastic tube (and general London) videos, along with Geoff Marshall.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,002

    According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    That's a very good point. It should be put to Nadine.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,919

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    I'm with you and Corbyn, BJO. Starmer is a very bad man. Rishi to win the election then Suella or Honest Bob Jenrick for sine die PM after a quick putsch.
  • Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,978

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,002

    Lee Anderson as Chancellor of the Exchequer, you read it here first.

    Well unlike the food bank skivers he knows how to eat for £1 a day.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,514

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    If Starmer is upsetting the SWP rentacrowd and Hamas apologists, then that is no bad thing.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,514

    If it's true that Hunt won't stand for re-election then it's likely we will see a new Chancellor before the election. But surely it will have to be someone with a bit more experience than many on that list. I think I'd find the 16/1 on Grant Shapps tempting. He's much less likely to be found out under the intense media scrutiny of an election campaign that most of the unknowns on that list.

    Shapps or Gove if Sunak is there to make the appointment.
  • If it's true that Hunt won't stand for re-election then it's likely we will see a new Chancellor before the election. But surely it will have to be someone with a bit more experience than many on that list. I think I'd find the 16/1 on Grant Shapps tempting. He's much less likely to be found out under the intense media scrutiny of an election campaign that most of the unknowns on that list.

    What's the precedent there? CofE is a bit different, because it's so senior, but there must be examples of ministers staying in their role until an election where they chose to stand down.

    Besides, beyond a certain point, it would become a pointless Tailend Charlie thing. You might get the souvenir red box and a line in your CV, but that would be all.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,116
    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,531

    Off topic, but I got so much grim enjoyment from this cartoon about the Loser, that I wanted to share it: https://www.gocomics.com/michaelramirez/2023/12/07

    Who/what is the elephant in this context?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    kinabalu said:

    Lee Anderson as Chancellor of the Exchequer, you read it here first.

    Well unlike the food bank skivers he knows how to eat for £1 a day.
    Eat only in the House of Commons' subsidised outlets? :wink:
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    viewcode said:

    Off topic, but I got so much grim enjoyment from this cartoon about the Loser, that I wanted to share it: https://www.gocomics.com/michaelramirez/2023/12/07

    Who/what is the elephant in this context?
    GOP - at least, that's how I took it.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,116
    viewcode said:

    Off topic, but I got so much grim enjoyment from this cartoon about the Loser, that I wanted to share it: https://www.gocomics.com/michaelramirez/2023/12/07

    Who/what is the elephant in this context?
    GOP

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,266
    edited December 2023
    viewcode said:

    Off topic, but I got so much grim enjoyment from this cartoon about the Loser, that I wanted to share it: https://www.gocomics.com/michaelramirez/2023/12/07

    Who/what is the elephant in this context?
    The elephant is the symbol of the Republican Party. So presumably that's the only thing so far that Trump has actually been able to kill.
  • If it's true that Hunt won't stand for re-election then it's likely we will see a new Chancellor before the election. But surely it will have to be someone with a bit more experience than many on that list. I think I'd find the 16/1 on Grant Shapps tempting. He's much less likely to be found out under the intense media scrutiny of an election campaign that most of the unknowns on that list.

    Shapps or Gove if Sunak is there to make the appointment.
    I expect Claire Coutinho to become COE early next year

    I also expect Rachel Reeves to be very disappointed not to be the first female COE
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,334
    O/T

    Tom Scott's latest video: "Why don't subtitles match dubbing?"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU9sHwNKc2c
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,054
    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @johnestevens

    Exclusive: Tory CEO Stephen Massey held all-staff call today and said they're getting advice from sister parties on how to bounce back after a heavy defeat

    Sources say it went down like a "lead balloon"... "We are f**ked"

    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1733158852927934933?s=20
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,116
    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Suella's dream? Surely it was Bobby's

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    edited December 2023
    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cZqYxJuA-8o

    But maybe she has other dreams?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTuwo_TqlhQ
    I'm malicious, mean and scary; my sneer could curdle dairy...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,531
    edited December 2023
    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    I see what you did there... :)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,054
    Selebian said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cZqYxJuA-8o
    ...
    Thanks. Her dream is to see a plan taking off for Rwanda. Not even a dish of rice pudding thrown in.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,956
    Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    Any idea what Cameron's figures were in ~2009?

    31% feels very low for Starmer in a head-to-head contest, but I've no recollection of what the figures were, and Wikipedia links to YouGov polls are broken.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,002
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    TOPPING said:

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can Richard Nabavi please please come back?

    I need someone remotely intelligent and knowledgeable to argue with, this is like potato printing at a Montessori

    "Wah-wah, nobody agrees with my stupid alt-right opinions. Wah-wah, I'm going to flounce off if you're all going to point out the flaws in my posts. Wah-wah!"
    Count yourself lucky. I’m actually giving you a second chance, which is more than you deserve, TBH
    Sorry, missed all this. What are you trying to argue? That if Russia were America and Ukraine was Mexico and America was China, that Puti ... sorry Biden would do what Putin has done?

    In which case ooo er. Very interesting. And you do have to wonder.
    I never thought I’d be so glad to argue with @kinabalu!

    But yes, that is what i am arguing. America absolutely perceives itself as an imperial power, AND still as THE superpower in many ways, and there is simply no way they would politically, economically or militarily accept Mexico uniting in an anti-American military alliance with Beijing. It is inconceivable, and any president that allowed this to happen would be utterly trounced in the consequent election

    So, democratically it would not happen, either

    I mean, America barely tolerates Chinese hegemony over the South China Sea and the near-Chinese Pacific, and we wonder if America would go to war over Taiwan

    Mexico???? Get real

    The wider point relates to Russian self-perception, In many ways Russia perceives itself as a Great Power and a near-peer of the USA, only recently stripped of superpower status. Many - me included - would say this is delusional, Russia is much closer to ex imperial states like France or Britain than China or the USA, nonetheless there is that streak in Russian thinking, and you can either handle it carefully, and avoid wars, and let Russia gently decline any road, or you can provoke the wounded Bear, and make it lash out, which helps no one. My suggestion - and it is only that - is that we maybe provoked Russia unwisely when we extended NATO to the Russian border

    We could have been cleverer and got what wanted with a more emollient soothing of wounded Russian pride. Now we have half a million dead in Ukraine and a likely new Korea, divided for decades

    Annoyingly, as I love a good argument, I find this hard to disagree with. But it’s all an argument about the past, and doesn’t address the point that Putin seems to take any compromise as sign of weakness. So given where we are, accepting a perceived ‘win’ for Russia at this stage is likely to take us further into the hole we’re in, rather than get us out of it.

    Wind back 30 years, and I think you’d be onto something.
    If the West had welcomed Russia into NATO and all Western institutions after the fall of the Berlin wall the past 30 years would have been remarkably different. Instead they told Russia that they (the West, specifically the US) would be happy to be the world's only policeman thank you very much.

    Does not excuse Russia's actions but explains them. I'll leave Mexico to one side but there is definitely a perspective from Russia which believes it is being encircled.

    https://www.france24.com/en/russia/20220130-did-nato-betray-russia-by-expanding-to-the-east

    "To understand Russia’s claims of betrayal, it is necessary to review the reassurances then US secretary of state James A. Baker made to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev during a meeting on February 9, 1990. In a discussion on the status of a reunited Germany, the two men agreed that NATO would not extend past the territory of East Germany, a promise repeated by NATO’s secretary general in a speech on May 17 that same year in Brussels.

    Russia and the West finally struck an agreement in September that would allow NATO to station its troops beyond the Iron Curtain. However, the deal only concerned a reunified Germany, with further eastward expansion being inconceivable at the time."
    Yes, and I have some sympathy for those in Russia arguing this. I also have sympathy for the argument that the world only got Putin (or at least kept him for so long) because NATO backed Russia into a corner.

    (Snip)
    I think that argument's bogus for one big reason: it assumes Putin is (or ever was) a faithful actor.

    It's clear that his mindset is of an imperialist, expansionist Russia. This is sadly probably not a new thing, and is made worse by the fact that even with is natural resources, Russia does not have the power to attain those goals.

    Sa I'd argue *whatever* we did, short of abandoning Eastern Europe to his regime, he would have used against us. If a deal had been done for Russia to join NATO, he would have undermined it from within: because a weakened NATO would naturally make Russia appear stronkier.

    He's not interested in Russian security. He wants Russia to be *great*. Those are two very different things.
    I agree with your assessment of Putin. I just wonder whether, in a counterfactual Russia that had become more ‘Western’, Putin might not have amassed the power that he has done. In an ideal world we would be dealing with a different Russian leader now.
    Obama characterised him as '...an old-fashioned Russian Nationalist'. I think that's pretty accurate as far as it goes, and is entirely consistent with the above.

    He is of course lots of other things too, mostly pretty nasty, but it is the Nationalism that is the driving force and makes him both dangerous and difficult to deal with.

    I'm afraid I don't buy the Gorbachev line that Russia would have been a nicer place if the West had treated it nicer after the break-up of the Union. When has Russia ever ever played nicely on the international stage?
    We in the west actually did a lot - and spent a lot of money - in the 1990s and 2000s to try to bring Russia back from its doldrums. From things like space cooperation, to decommissioning old nuclear subs, to buying their darned oil and gas. There's this idea developing that we weren't 'nice' to Russia. It's bogus.

    What it means is that we didn't bend over backwards to give Putin everything he wanted.
    It's also a means of denying Russia's own culpability and responsibility for its own actions and choices, post-communism.
    This is critical. You are right. It is Russia's fault and no one else for what it did post-communism. Whether good or bad. But I am seeking to explain not excuse. It is a contributory factor, imo, that Russia was shut out from the Western brotherhood of nations in a way that might have built resentment. That does not excuse its behaviour since nor make its invasion of Ukraine "right". But it helps to explain it. It is also important to understand its motivation from a non-Western free market liberal perspective.

    I appreciate that this analysis, such as it is, deriving mostly from googleable sources, gets our Ukraine Brigade up in arms.

    Likewise (@kini talking to you here), it is important to understand the motivations for Hamas in its actions against Israel. It is both aggrieved at its perceived injustice of the land split, and also wishes to exterminate the land of Israel for some reason or other. I can understand both these views without believing that they are justified in holding them.
    Hmm. But on Russia you try very hard indeed to 'understand'. Whereas on the Palestinians your 'understanding' is always couched in a way (as here) which leaves no doubt whatsoever about your feelings on the matter (heavily heavily pro Israel). Eg whenever some poster or other seeks to contextualize the Hamas attack of Oct 7th into the frame of the overall decades long Palestinian struggle for sovereignty you (if you're around) will be in like a whippet with some sark or an attempted takedown.
    I am flattered that you place my posts into a hierarchy of importance.

    Let me make it easy for you. I understand clearly that Hamas wants the elimination of Israel and that it believes that Israel stole and now occupies its land. As they themselves and their supporters state clearly. It, and many actors in the. middle east have wanted to do this for decades, nay, hundreds and thousands of years. It is, at its heart, jew hatred. Whether you start the clock on who owns the land in 1948 or 1973 or 2006 or 70ADThat is the root cause imo of the current conflict.

    Russia I believe thinks that Ukraine is a part of Russia. Do I agree with that? Not sure but it stems from a vision of Greater Russia which at some point took hold.

    Very happy to debate with you if you believe that Ukraine is not and never has been a part of Greater Russia and if you believe that Jew hatred is a legitimate reason for wanting Israel pushed into the sea.

    As for who the next Chancellor is going to be, it's anyone's guess.
    Ok. So we're reducing the Palestinian desire for sovereignty to Jew hatred. Whereas Russia's invasion of Ukraine springs from them thinking it's part of Russia, this being such an eminently reasonable proposition that you aren't sure you disagree with it.

    Well there you go. This explains the lopsided way you tackle the 2 conflicts on here. The dogged search for balance and context in the one, the palpable aversion to it in the other.

    And it's fine. You're human not a logic machine. I truly don't advance this as a gotcha. It just interested me. Sated now.

    Next Chancellor? I'm with you. No bet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,042

    Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    Any idea what Cameron's figures were in ~2009?

    31% feels very low for Starmer in a head-to-head contest, but I've no recollection of what the figures were, and Wikipedia links to YouGov polls are broken.
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/files/2015/02/PartyLeaderSatisfaction.png
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041

    Lee Anderson as Chancellor of the Exchequer, you read it here first.

    Is 30p the top rate, or starting rate for income tax ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041

    According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    Ken Clarke, for one.

    Ch(DoL) 1987-8
    Ch/Ex 1993-7
    Ld Ch 2010-12
    Fantastic.
    Yes, he was.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,002
    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    He is getting funny and I hope he stops it. I've had enough of politics as comedy. Save that for outside work with friends and family.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940
    Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    You might agree with much of Cummings’ assessment:

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1733077294531416078

    delusion after delusion. this isn't 'bad spads/process', it's a PM full on living in a parallel world - he cannot accept he was wrong when he was told explicitly & repeatedly 'your policy cannot & won't work & it's a political disaster' - he's now pretending he's 'blocking' the courts when he very obviously is not & his policy/Bill very obviously leaves the ECHR/HRA framework in control

    he's so monumentally botched it he is BOTH *in breach of ECHR* AND leaving the ECHR *in actual control*! and BOTH roused the dominant Left network to smash him AND isn't seriously trying to solve the problem! so 100% on brand for establishment Tories, 'the grownups' as the IfG calls them

    he will not 'stop the boats', it's already game over for the fake rwanda gimmick & the PM has wasted 2022 & left himself no time

    there will be a useless attempt in 2024 to claim he's been 'sabotaged' by Lords/courts & 'this is what the election is about', they'll pathetically try to use Take Back Control, but it won't work

    tories doomed if they keep him & doomed if they spasm & fire him
  • Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,054

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,137
    edited December 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    @johnestevens

    Exclusive: Tory CEO Stephen Massey held all-staff call today and said they're getting advice from sister parties on how to bounce back after a heavy defeat

    Sources say it went down like a "lead balloon"... "We are f**ked"

    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1733158852927934933?s=20

    Sister parties? Heavy defeat?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    edited December 2023
    Sunak will want to keep a heavyweight at the Treasury so I can't see him moving Hunt. So Reeves it likely is assuming Labour win the next general election.

    Braverman doesn't have the support of the majority of Tory MPs now she needs to become PM and leader. Her best hope is Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election and she then does well enough to get in the last 2 with Tory MPs with ERG backing and then sweeps the Conservative membership in the final run off vote
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940

    Scott_xP said:

    @johnestevens

    Exclusive: Tory CEO Stephen Massey held all-staff call today and said they're getting advice from sister parties on how to bounce back after a heavy defeat

    Sources say it went down like a "lead balloon"... "We are f**ked"

    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1733158852927934933?s=20

    Sister parties? Heavy defeat?
    Canadian Conservatives?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    You might agree with much of Cummings’ assessment:

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1733077294531416078

    delusion after delusion. this isn't 'bad spads/process', it's a PM full on living in a parallel world - he cannot accept he was wrong when he was told explicitly & repeatedly 'your policy cannot & won't work & it's a political disaster' - he's now pretending he's 'blocking' the courts when he very obviously is not & his policy/Bill very obviously leaves the ECHR/HRA framework in control

    he's so monumentally botched it he is BOTH *in breach of ECHR* AND leaving the ECHR *in actual control*! and BOTH roused the dominant Left network to smash him AND isn't seriously trying to solve the problem! so 100% on brand for establishment Tories, 'the grownups' as the IfG calls them

    he will not 'stop the boats', it's already game over for the fake rwanda gimmick & the PM has wasted 2022 & left himself no time

    there will be a useless attempt in 2024 to claim he's been 'sabotaged' by Lords/courts & 'this is what the election is about', they'll pathetically try to use Take Back Control, but it won't work

    tories doomed if they keep him & doomed if they spasm & fire him
    Remind me...

    Whose bright idea was it to catapult Rishi onto the top table of government?

    Did it never bother Domski that pretty much all the politicians he brought to power were nitwits, chancers, lightweights or all three?
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
    Who
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    edited December 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    Looks like Mr 'Neither' is heading to be our next PM by a landslide (seriously though shows once in power Starmer won't have the affection and charisma Blair and Cameron had behind him to take him through, both Blair and Cameron had much bigger leads as best PM before they won power)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,054
    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    I see what you did there... :)
    Coming soon - Suella Braverman as Lady Peinforte.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,865

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    I really don’t know what’s happening to my age-group! We marched against The Bomb, opposed apartheid, and now look at us!

    For the avoidance of doubt, I’ve been on the Left, or centre-Left for over 70 years and see no reason to move to even centre-Right.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,054

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
    Who
    Sorry - I forgot how prevalent Alzheimer's was among the Tory party membership.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,263
    edited December 2023

    According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    Ken Clarke, for one.

    Ch(DoL) 1987-8
    Ch/Ex 1993-7
    Ld Ch 2010-12
    Fantastic.
    Clarke may be the only one to have done it but I've only checked back to the mid-19th century as I don't know the list of Chancellors of the Exchequer well enough before that and can't be bothered cross-referencing in that detail. However, all three offices are very ancient so it's quite possible some others managed the hat-trick.

    Maybe worth noting in passing that John Simon went straight from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Lord Chancellor in 1940. However, while his cabinet career spanned 35 years, the Duchy of Lancaster passed him by.
    Cardinal Wolsey?
    Thomas Cromwell?
    John of Gaunt?

    :smile:

    I don't see why they would move Hunt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908

    Gorgeous Tories smashing election donations out of the park. Labour slacking at a third of the Tory total for three months. Everyone loves the Tories!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/07/conservatives-labour-election-fund-john-sainsbury

    Though most of that was the £10 million John Sainsbury left the Tories in his will
  • HYUFD said:

    Sunak will want to keep a heavyweight at the Treasury so I can't see him moving Hunt. So Reeves it likely is assuming Labour win the next general election.

    Braverman doesn't have the support of the majority of Tory MPs now she needs to become PM and leader. Her best hope is Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election and she then does well enough to get in the last 2 with Tory MPs with ERG backing and then sweeps the Conservative membership in the final run off vote

    How does anyone with a sane mind think Braverman is the answer to the countries problems

    Mind you I forgot, the members do not have sane minds
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,865
    edited December 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Gorgeous Tories smashing election donations out of the park. Labour slacking at a third of the Tory total for three months. Everyone loves the Tories!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/07/conservatives-labour-election-fund-john-sainsbury

    Though most of that was the £10 million John Sainsbury left the Tories in his will
    One has to be careful to keep one’s will up-to-date. All sorts of things can happen between writing one and the situation at one’s death.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,531
    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    I see what you did there... :)
    Coming soon - Suella Braverman as Lady Peinforte.
    I didn't even have to look her up... :(
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    You might agree with much of Cummings’ assessment:

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1733077294531416078

    delusion after delusion. this isn't 'bad spads/process', it's a PM full on living in a parallel world - he cannot accept he was wrong when he was told explicitly & repeatedly 'your policy cannot & won't work & it's a political disaster' - he's now pretending he's 'blocking' the courts when he very obviously is not & his policy/Bill very obviously leaves the ECHR/HRA framework in control

    he's so monumentally botched it he is BOTH *in breach of ECHR* AND leaving the ECHR *in actual control*! and BOTH roused the dominant Left network to smash him AND isn't seriously trying to solve the problem! so 100% on brand for establishment Tories, 'the grownups' as the IfG calls them

    he will not 'stop the boats', it's already game over for the fake rwanda gimmick & the PM has wasted 2022 & left himself no time

    there will be a useless attempt in 2024 to claim he's been 'sabotaged' by Lords/courts & 'this is what the election is about', they'll pathetically try to use Take Back Control, but it won't work

    tories doomed if they keep him & doomed if they spasm & fire him
    He does get quite intense, Dom, doesn't he. It's like he's living in a world bounded by UnHerd polemics rather than the earth and sky.

    My tip for Sunak would be to stop appearing at lecterns imprinted with Stop The Boats! It just looks ineffably naff. He's our PM ffs.
    The tendency of the government to behave as if they are in opposition is one of the worst developments of the last 20 years or so.
  • Ian Hislop reveals his favourite political blunders of 2023
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYVSP47cloI
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,531

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
    Who
    He did a thing once. I'm sure it was very important to somebody. He does podcasts and YouTubes now. Occasionally people watch. Perhaps he has a Patreon. He seems to spend a lot of time on them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    'Meet the 19-year-old who loves living in the 1940s: Teenager drives Austin car, rides old Raleigh bicycle, refuses to own a mobile phone and counts Vera Lynn and Ginger Rogers among his favourite stars'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12841705/Teenager-1940s-Austin-car-Raleigh-bicycle.html
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
    Who
    Sorry - I forgot how prevalent Alzheimer's was among the Tory party membership.
    I would just say I do not have Alzheimer's but if your loved one had, you would not joke about it
  • Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Tom Scott's latest video: "Why don't subtitles match dubbing?"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU9sHwNKc2c

    You mean like this? :lol::lol::lol:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XziLNeFm1ok
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,531

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    I really don’t know what’s happening to my age-group! We marched against The Bomb, opposed apartheid, and now look at us!

    For the avoidance of doubt, I’ve been on the Left, or centre-Left for over 70 years and see no reason to move to even centre-Right.
    And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past... :(

  • viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
    Who
    He did a thing once. I'm sure it was very important to somebody. He does podcasts and YouTubes now. Occasionally people watch. Perhaps he has a Patreon. He seems to spend a lot of time on them.
    Lots and lots of people watch or listen to The Rest Is Politics. Their live shows sell out in minutes. There must be some sort of broadcasting mega-genius behind The Rest Is..., a modern-day Lord Reith.
  • viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
    Who
    He did a thing once. I'm sure it was very important to somebody. He does podcasts and YouTubes now. Occasionally people watch. Perhaps he has a Patreon. He seems to spend a lot of time on them.
    It's OK - I know who he is but hardly well known today
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041
    We should do a deal to build their kit under licence.
    Crap like Ajax is a huge waste of taxpayers' money. And would be a liability if we ever had to fight a war.

    Hanwha signs $2.4 bil. deal to export infantry fighting vehicles to Australia
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=364725
  • HYUFD said:

    'Meet the 19-year-old who loves living in the 1940s: Teenager drives Austin car, rides old Raleigh bicycle, refuses to own a mobile phone and counts Vera Lynn and Ginger Rogers among his favourite stars'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12841705/Teenager-1940s-Austin-car-Raleigh-bicycle.html

    Vaguely interesting but hardly news, unless his hedge fund is about to close.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,917
    kinabalu said:

    Lee Anderson as Chancellor of the Exchequer, you read it here first.

    Well unlike the food bank skivers he knows how to eat for £1 a day.
    He'd probably force the food banks to charge interest.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,002

    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
    Who
    He did a thing once. I'm sure it was very important to somebody. He does podcasts and YouTubes now. Occasionally people watch. Perhaps he has a Patreon. He seems to spend a lot of time on them.
    Lots and lots of people watch or listen to The Rest Is Politics. Their live shows sell out in minutes. There must be some sort of broadcasting mega-genius behind The Rest Is..., a modern-day Lord Reith.
    In response to the hype I listened to a couple. It was ok but I was slightly disappointed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,002
    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    I really don’t know what’s happening to my age-group! We marched against The Bomb, opposed apartheid, and now look at us!

    For the avoidance of doubt, I’ve been on the Left, or centre-Left for over 70 years and see no reason to move to even centre-Right.
    And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past... :(
    You're very eloquent tonight. That's rather lovely.
  • kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    You might agree with much of Cummings’ assessment:

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1733077294531416078

    delusion after delusion. this isn't 'bad spads/process', it's a PM full on living in a parallel world - he cannot accept he was wrong when he was told explicitly & repeatedly 'your policy cannot & won't work & it's a political disaster' - he's now pretending he's 'blocking' the courts when he very obviously is not & his policy/Bill very obviously leaves the ECHR/HRA framework in control

    he's so monumentally botched it he is BOTH *in breach of ECHR* AND leaving the ECHR *in actual control*! and BOTH roused the dominant Left network to smash him AND isn't seriously trying to solve the problem! so 100% on brand for establishment Tories, 'the grownups' as the IfG calls them

    he will not 'stop the boats', it's already game over for the fake rwanda gimmick & the PM has wasted 2022 & left himself no time

    there will be a useless attempt in 2024 to claim he's been 'sabotaged' by Lords/courts & 'this is what the election is about', they'll pathetically try to use Take Back Control, but it won't work

    tories doomed if they keep him & doomed if they spasm & fire him
    He does get quite intense, Dom, doesn't he. It's like he's living in a world bounded by UnHerd polemics rather than the earth and sky.

    My tip for Sunak would be to stop appearing at lecterns imprinted with Stop The Boats! It just looks ineffably naff. He's our PM ffs.
    The Stop The Boats lectern is like something from Brass Eye. Every time I see it I have to remind myself that we are a G7 economy.
    Dominic Cummings is such a loon, too. Brexit really did usher in a deeply unserious, infantile and hysterical type of politics. I really hope we can turn a page on this kind of nonsense soon.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,729
    Nigelb said:

    We should do a deal to build their kit under licence.
    Crap like Ajax is a huge waste of taxpayers' money. And would be a liability if we ever had to fight a war.

    Hanwha signs $2.4 bil. deal to export infantry fighting vehicles to Australia
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=364725

    Odd that it's 129 vehicles, and my word they're pricey. What does Ajax cost?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,002

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    You might agree with much of Cummings’ assessment:

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1733077294531416078

    delusion after delusion. this isn't 'bad spads/process', it's a PM full on living in a parallel world - he cannot accept he was wrong when he was told explicitly & repeatedly 'your policy cannot & won't work & it's a political disaster' - he's now pretending he's 'blocking' the courts when he very obviously is not & his policy/Bill very obviously leaves the ECHR/HRA framework in control

    he's so monumentally botched it he is BOTH *in breach of ECHR* AND leaving the ECHR *in actual control*! and BOTH roused the dominant Left network to smash him AND isn't seriously trying to solve the problem! so 100% on brand for establishment Tories, 'the grownups' as the IfG calls them

    he will not 'stop the boats', it's already game over for the fake rwanda gimmick & the PM has wasted 2022 & left himself no time

    there will be a useless attempt in 2024 to claim he's been 'sabotaged' by Lords/courts & 'this is what the election is about', they'll pathetically try to use Take Back Control, but it won't work

    tories doomed if they keep him & doomed if they spasm & fire him
    He does get quite intense, Dom, doesn't he. It's like he's living in a world bounded by UnHerd polemics rather than the earth and sky.

    My tip for Sunak would be to stop appearing at lecterns imprinted with Stop The Boats! It just looks ineffably naff. He's our PM ffs.
    The tendency of the government to behave as if they are in opposition is one of the worst developments of the last 20 years or so.
    Totally. But more the last 4 years surely. Blair Brown Cam May weren't particularly like that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,042
    Nigelb said:

    We should do a deal to build their kit under licence.
    Crap like Ajax is a huge waste of taxpayers' money. And would be a liability if we ever had to fight a war.

    Hanwha signs $2.4 bil. deal to export infantry fighting vehicles to Australia
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=364725

    https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Bradley_and_How_It_Got_That_Way.html?id=AnvDEAAAQBAJ

    Is a brilliant account of how IFVs end up the way they do - essentially a loop of

    1) we need a light vehicle
    :
    127) why does this this thing weigh more than a tank?
    128) back to step 1)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @fleetstreetfox

    Rishi Sunak won't be calling a general election next autumn, in the same way he won't be strutting the Paris catwalk in Balenciaga heels for the Fall '24 season.

    The Tory turkeys are about to vote for a Christmas bloodbath.

    https://x.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1733165793012072455?s=20
  • Eric ten Hag wins November manager of the month

    Harry Maguire wins November player of the month

    Alejandro Garnachio wins goal of the month for November

    I doubt anyone would have bet on triple awards in November for Man Utd
  • kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Selebian said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    Not sure. You would think Austerity Reeves looks a good price unless we have a last minute reshuffle

    After the Karma for Starmer event yesterday in Glasgow i am not so sure.

    According to a news report i heard last night a LAB insider said. "It got to the stage with Tony (Blair) towards the end of his Premiership that Lab HQ advised him not to do Public appearances for fear of hostile crowds. Its a concern we are at that stage with Keir in the run up to the GE, when he hasn't even been PM"

    Corbyn of course was doorstepped all the time but from the shitting himself expression from SKS and his General inability to engage with anyone he hasn't personally selected.Watching SKS perform will be amusing to say the least

    Tories are such a hopeless mess though so expect PM SKS is still likely.

    Starmer's ratings are nothing like as bad as late Blair. FWIW, I think Labour is being overly cautious in their approach, including Starmer's public appearances. However, he's not going to be outshone by either Sunak or Davey (never mind whichever committee is 'leading' the Greens this week).

    And with several more 20+ point Labour leads in the polls today, Labour could well be looking at a majority well into three figures. Were the election today, it might be over 200.
    He was unusually witty at PMQs this week although fish, barrels and guns aimed at your own feet come to mind in terms of what he was up against. I think he should be a bit braver.
    Doh! The braver man is on the other side

    Persuadable to cross the floor with a promise to really, really make her dream come true under a Labour government? :wink:
    What is Suella's dream?

    Unimaginable power? Unlimited rice pudding?
    Utter delusion sadly

    Apparently the Express has a readers poll for next conservative leader with Farage first, Braverman 2nd, and Johnson 3rd

    Was Rory Stewart placed (just out of curiosity)?
    Who
    He did a thing once. I'm sure it was very important to somebody. He does podcasts and YouTubes now. Occasionally people watch. Perhaps he has a Patreon. He seems to spend a lot of time on them.
    Lots and lots of people watch or listen to The Rest Is Politics. Their live shows sell out in minutes. There must be some sort of broadcasting mega-genius behind The Rest Is..., a modern-day Lord Reith.
    In response to the hype I listened to a couple. It was ok but I was slightly disappointed.
    I've not listened to it. I've always found Rory Stewart to be the kind of person I try to like but can't, while Campbell is the kind of person I try to dislike but can't.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    David Cameron doing a pretty good job of explaining why the US should continue to support Ukraine on MSNBC.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao4-WNjL0Vo

    For all the criticisms of his appointment this is what he is there for.

    TOPPING says he isn't sure whether Ukraine is part of Russia. Does he think the whole of Ireland ought to be brought back inside the UK for similar historical reasons? The problem is quite simple. Vladimir Putin think Ukraine should be under the control of Moscow. The vast majority of Ukrainians don't agree. The evidence for the latter is pretty much every democratic election Ukraine has held since the 1991 referendum. Even Yanukovich the supposed Russian patsy who won in 2010 only did so on a promise to sign an EU association agreement. So sadly they end up fighting it out and you can decide for yourself where your sympathies lie.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,002

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lower than BoZo...

    @YouGov
    This week's 'best PM' score for Rishi Sunak is his lowest to date

    Rishi Sunak: 18% (-3 from 29-30 Nov)
    Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
    Neither: 47% (+6)

    You might agree with much of Cummings’ assessment:

    https://x.com/dominic2306/status/1733077294531416078

    delusion after delusion. this isn't 'bad spads/process', it's a PM full on living in a parallel world - he cannot accept he was wrong when he was told explicitly & repeatedly 'your policy cannot & won't work & it's a political disaster' - he's now pretending he's 'blocking' the courts when he very obviously is not & his policy/Bill very obviously leaves the ECHR/HRA framework in control

    he's so monumentally botched it he is BOTH *in breach of ECHR* AND leaving the ECHR *in actual control*! and BOTH roused the dominant Left network to smash him AND isn't seriously trying to solve the problem! so 100% on brand for establishment Tories, 'the grownups' as the IfG calls them

    he will not 'stop the boats', it's already game over for the fake rwanda gimmick & the PM has wasted 2022 & left himself no time

    there will be a useless attempt in 2024 to claim he's been 'sabotaged' by Lords/courts & 'this is what the election is about', they'll pathetically try to use Take Back Control, but it won't work

    tories doomed if they keep him & doomed if they spasm & fire him
    He does get quite intense, Dom, doesn't he. It's like he's living in a world bounded by UnHerd polemics rather than the earth and sky.

    My tip for Sunak would be to stop appearing at lecterns imprinted with Stop The Boats! It just looks ineffably naff. He's our PM ffs.
    The Stop The Boats lectern is like something from Brass Eye. Every time I see it I have to remind myself that we are a G7 economy.
    Dominic Cummings is such a loon, too. Brexit really did usher in a deeply unserious, infantile and hysterical type of politics. I really hope we can turn a page on this kind of nonsense soon.
    I'm hopeful. It's one of the best things about Keir that he's stolid and serious.
  • According to Nadine's book, Michael Gove has been running the show for the past 20 years or more so if he can't get himself into Number 11, what's the bloody point?

    It would be the hat-trick as Chancellor for him as he previously been The Lord Chancellor and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    I wonder if anyone has ever achieved the Chancellor hat-trick? I'm guessing not as the Lord Chancellor was a non partisan role until Blair's assault on the constitution.
    No it wasn't.
    Yes it was, he tried to abolish the role of Lord Chancellor in a reshuffle until it was pointed to him he would need to pass primary legislation to abolish the role.
    What was really funny was that he didn't realise that if he just abolished the position then no laws could be passed by Parliament.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,729
    Scott_xP said:

    @fleetstreetfox

    Rishi Sunak won't be calling a general election next autumn, in the same way he won't be strutting the Paris catwalk in Balenciaga heels for the Fall '24 season.

    The Tory turkeys are about to vote for a Christmas bloodbath.

    https://x.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1733165793012072455?s=20

    If I was Sunak I'd be eyeing the polls for December very carefully. It's possible there is a Xmas 'it's Xmas' thing that allowed Boris quite what he got. Otherwise January 2025 looks nailed on, but watch out for pandemics being declared.
This discussion has been closed.