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Two years and counting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited December 2023 in General
Two years and counting – politicalbetting.com

The most notable thing about this chart is how straight the Labour and Conservative lines are since May 2021. There's a spasm when Partygate broke and another when Liz Truss imploded, but those were short term deviations from a much longer term trend. https://t.co/PBgBeS88Uh

Read the full story here

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    edited December 2023
    first?

    Oh yes, never in doubt. I agree that the weird thing with the polling of late is how stable it has been, barely ever out of MOE.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited December 2023
    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    People who disliked Corbyn are not afraid of SKS, people who liked Johnson are unhappy with Tory brand in general (Truss and Sunak), and those on the left (not even as far as Corbynites, but everyone Miliband and further left) either feel the need to vote Labour so hard to kick out the Tories or are gonna stay at home (and are a relatively small group anyway) that it doesn't matter. All that is left to figure out is how big the Labour maj will be - I live in hope that maybe SKSs Labour doesn't get a majority and will need LDs, SNP and even potentially Green votes to govern, but it looks unlikely.
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    Watching this evisceration of Boris Johnson at the moment the only people left who think Boris Johnson is awesome must be his family, which admittedly is a very large demographic given the way he spreads his demon seed.
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    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    When you are Prime Minister and the country is in the middle of an existential crisis, you lead from the front. "There will be time for politics later once we get through the current emergency"

    Lets assume that Nippie had leaked something. Call her out. Number 10 is perfectly capable of its own leaking operation. Not engaging with them for political reasons in case they say something is pathetic.
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    Test.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    I mean, was it political on Nicola's part? If she sincerely believed that Johnson's government was not acting as quickly or decisively as the advice suggested (which I think would be a reasonable position), then if she tweaked anything in her power to be just that bit more strict, that's fair.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    Which she did. She took priviliged info from SAGE and rushed to the airwaves ahead of the UK government. Unquestionably she used covid for her political ends.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148

    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    When you are Prime Minister and the country is in the middle of an existential crisis, you lead from the front. "There will be time for politics later once we get through the current emergency"

    Lets assume that Nippie had leaked something. Call her out. Number 10 is perfectly capable of its own leaking operation. Not engaging with them for political reasons in case they say something is pathetic.
    You cannot be blind to the way Sturgeon used covid to advance her political aims, surely?
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    Watching this evisceration of Boris Johnson at the moment the only people left who think Boris Johnson is awesome must be his family, which admittedly is a very large demographic given the way he spreads his demon seed.

    I thought they all hated him too?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,532
    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    148grss said:

    People who disliked Corbyn are not afraid of SKS, people who liked Johnson are unhappy with Tory brand in general (Truss and Sunak), and those on the left (not even as far as Corbynites, but everyone Miliband and further left) either feel the need to vote Labour so hard to kick out the Tories or are gonna stay at home (and are a relatively small group anyway) that it doesn't matter. All that is left to figure out is how big the Labour maj will be - I live in hope that maybe SKSs Labour doesn't get a majority and will need LDs, SNP and even potentially Green votes to govern, but it looks unlikely.

    Your hopes will be dashed, I think. Labour are going to win in the way that Malcolm leans slightly towards Scottish Independence.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    Johnson said: "My considerations were – to be absolutely frank with the inquiry – the risk of pointless political friction and grandstanding because of the well-known opposition of some of the [devolved administrations] to the government – and also to avoid unnecessary leaks.

    "And I thought the way to minimise divergence and tensions – and you can quarrel with this judgment – was to take the temperature down, and to have business like practical meetings between the [devolved administrations] and [the then chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove]… and I think, by and large, it was extremely effective."

    So, he's not saying he wouldn't talk to them because they were from different political parties, but he wouldn't talk to them because he thought the politics would get in the way of good liaison.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679

    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    Which she did. She took priviliged info from SAGE and rushed to the airwaves ahead of the UK government. Unquestionably she used covid for her political ends.
    I think any reasonable politician could look at the Johnson government during covid and determine that they weren't acting fast enough or with the seriousness needed and, therefore, making things slightly more in line with how other countries were acting and being slightly more restrictive would make sense. You can argue if that is purely political or just the right thing to do - but I remember screaming at the TV to do things quicker and more definitively and the government always being a week or two behind what I was screaming; and I'm a nobody. If Sturgeon had all the data and briefings Johnson had, and Johnson was more on the side of "the mayor from Jaws was right, actually", then yeah - she's gonna change things.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Off topic: Do we know when the SC are to rule on the Scottish GRR case?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189

    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    Which she did. She took priviliged info from SAGE and rushed to the airwaves ahead of the UK government. Unquestionably she used covid for her political ends.
    The Scottish government (which, as we all know is a bastion of transparancy) went to the Court of Session yesterday to appeal against the decision of the Scottish Information Commissioner that they had to release the information which was provided to James Hamilton when he did his report on the investigation of Alex Salmond. Their argument was that since the paperwork was in the hands of the author of the report (who complained at the time about the redactions which, he said, made it misleading) they were no longer in the hands of the SM.

    The 3 judges, who included the Lord President, took nearly 2 minutes of discussion to throw out the appeal. It was a bizarre waste of public money and time. What is the SG trying to hide? Who knows, one day we might actually find out.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    148grss said:

    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    Which she did. She took priviliged info from SAGE and rushed to the airwaves ahead of the UK government. Unquestionably she used covid for her political ends.
    I think any reasonable politician could look at the Johnson government during covid and determine that they weren't acting fast enough or with the seriousness needed and, therefore, making things slightly more in line with how other countries were acting and being slightly more restrictive would make sense. You can argue if that is purely political or just the right thing to do - but I remember screaming at the TV to do things quicker and more definitively and the government always being a week or two behind what I was screaming; and I'm a nobody. If Sturgeon had all the data and briefings Johnson had, and Johnson was more on the side of "the mayor from Jaws was right, actually", then yeah - she's gonna change things.
    This is missing the point. Sturgeon did many things simply to be different from the UK government. Take levels. The UK government went for 4 (and then said we are are at 3,5 or some other foolishness), she went for 5.

    I don't doubt that she tried to do her best for Scotland and Scottish people. I also don't doubt that she believes that independence is best and used covid to try to further that cause too.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    kinabalu said:

    148grss said:

    People who disliked Corbyn are not afraid of SKS, people who liked Johnson are unhappy with Tory brand in general (Truss and Sunak), and those on the left (not even as far as Corbynites, but everyone Miliband and further left) either feel the need to vote Labour so hard to kick out the Tories or are gonna stay at home (and are a relatively small group anyway) that it doesn't matter. All that is left to figure out is how big the Labour maj will be - I live in hope that maybe SKSs Labour doesn't get a majority and will need LDs, SNP and even potentially Green votes to govern, but it looks unlikely.

    Your hopes will be dashed, I think. Labour are going to win in the way that Malcolm leans slightly towards Scottish Independence.
    Yeah, that is what the polling at the moment suggests. My only hope relies on Labour's decision to continue austerity and be Tory lite providing a good enough attack line to prevent the typical GE squeeze (and maybe even some people coming to the Greens), along with potentially good debate performances from Carla (who is a much better speaker than Adrian and would be the only woman on stage if it includes Rishi, SKS, Davey and (potentially?) Farage). If the Tory wipe out looks odds on, or they collapse in the polls any further, it would be easier to make the argument that voting Green, LD or SNP won't necessarily allow the Tory to stay in.
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    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    When you are Prime Minister and the country is in the middle of an existential crisis, you lead from the front. "There will be time for politics later once we get through the current emergency"

    Lets assume that Nippie had leaked something. Call her out. Number 10 is perfectly capable of its own leaking operation. Not engaging with them for political reasons in case they say something is pathetic.
    You cannot be blind to the way Sturgeon used covid to advance her political aims, surely?

    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    When you are Prime Minister and the country is in the middle of an existential crisis, you lead from the front. "There will be time for politics later once we get through the current emergency"

    Lets assume that Nippie had leaked something. Call her out. Number 10 is perfectly capable of its own leaking operation. Not engaging with them for political reasons in case they say something is pathetic.
    You cannot be blind to the way Sturgeon used covid to advance her political aims, surely?
    I'm not! But who is going to be the grown up in the room?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,632
    See where that trend gets us by the next GE:

    image
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
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    So over the past 2 years we have had one opinion poll on average every day.

    That is a lot of data.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    When you are Prime Minister and the country is in the middle of an existential crisis, you lead from the front. "There will be time for politics later once we get through the current emergency"

    Lets assume that Nippie had leaked something. Call her out. Number 10 is perfectly capable of its own leaking operation. Not engaging with them for political reasons in case they say something is pathetic.
    You cannot be blind to the way Sturgeon used covid to advance her political aims, surely?
    Whatever happened to her Whatsapp messages ?
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679

    See where that trend gets us by the next GE:

    image

    What are the lines of best fit for the other parties?
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    Taz said:
    It’s all fart and no follow through this proposal.

    All you need to meet this criteria is to have a supermarket/corner shop/post office/cash machine nearby.

    The gaps are already plugged.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    When you are Prime Minister and the country is in the middle of an existential crisis, you lead from the front. "There will be time for politics later once we get through the current emergency"

    Lets assume that Nippie had leaked something. Call her out. Number 10 is perfectly capable of its own leaking operation. Not engaging with them for political reasons in case they say something is pathetic.
    You cannot be blind to the way Sturgeon used covid to advance her political aims, surely?
    Whatever happened to her Whatsapp messages ?
    On a phone in a campervan somewhere?
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    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    The political reason being that Nicola would leak and tweak anything that was agreed to make her look better and different for the sake of it?
    When you are Prime Minister and the country is in the middle of an existential crisis, you lead from the front. "There will be time for politics later once we get through the current emergency"

    Lets assume that Nippie had leaked something. Call her out. Number 10 is perfectly capable of its own leaking operation. Not engaging with them for political reasons in case they say something is pathetic.
    You cannot be blind to the way Sturgeon used covid to advance her political aims, surely?
    Whatever happened to her Whatsapp messages ?
    Deleted despite her promises during the pandemic.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    edited December 2023
    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    The Tories have been failing for 13 years, and are trying to pass a policy that Rwanda has said it might back out of if it doesn't follow international law. That also seems like a plan to tackle illegal immigration that adds up to sweet FA.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    The trivialisation of politics, and society in general, continues
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    148grss said:

    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    The Tories have been failing for 13 years, and are trying to pass a policy that Rwanda has said it might back out of if it doesn't follow international law. That also seems like a plan to tackle illegal immigration that adds up to sweet FA.
    True, the Tories have failed but Labour will be subjected to scrutiny on this and what is their policy. They have many who are pro open door migration, no human is illegal. Make the case if they want to advocate it. Or come up with something they want to offer in place of what we have currently.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,532
    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    Note for Leon

    US imports from Mexico now surpass imports from China.
    https://twitter.com/ssankar/status/1730735579120422995
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    Why don't the Tories give us their plans to tackle illegal migration?

    It isn't "Send them to Rwanda". They can't. So what is the real plan?

    Even if they get past all the cuts barriers (lack of internment places / lack of Home Office Staff / lack of Courts capacity etc etc) they are faced with the pain of the plan not being compatible with the ECHR and Rwanda not accepting any plan which bypasses the ECHR.

    So the plan is no plan. And I think most people have woken up and understood this. So come on you handful of Tories, what is the real plan?
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    Taz said:

    148grss said:

    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    The Tories have been failing for 13 years, and are trying to pass a policy that Rwanda has said it might back out of if it doesn't follow international law. That also seems like a plan to tackle illegal immigration that adds up to sweet FA.
    True, the Tories have failed but Labour will be subjected to scrutiny on this and what is their policy. They have many who are pro open door migration, no human is illegal. Make the case if they want to advocate it. Or come up with something they want to offer in place of what we have currently.
    I'd be happy for Labour to do that, but the idea the Government should be saying "our cock up is less important than the oppositions lack of policy" is stupid if it isn't calling an election. The opposition doesn't have to have a policy to deal with it - it's the opposition. It's job is to scrutinise the government - that's the whole "loyal opposition" ethos, that an adversarial relationship between government and opposition will make government policy better. If the Tories want to see a Labour manifesto - call a GE.
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    Why don't the Tories give us their plans to tackle illegal migration?

    It isn't "Send them to Rwanda". They can't. So what is the real plan?

    Even if they get past all the cuts barriers (lack of internment places / lack of Home Office Staff / lack of Courts capacity etc etc) they are faced with the pain of the plan not being compatible with the ECHR and Rwanda not accepting any plan which bypasses the ECHR.

    So the plan is no plan. And I think most people have woken up and understood this. So come on you handful of Tories, what is the real plan?

    Leverage it to get their voters angry and hope that increases Tory turnout. It will probably just move them over to RefUk and pave the way for a Fararge takeover.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,532
    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    Yes it is. Yvette Cooper has set out Labour's quite detailed plans to tackle illegal migration time and time again over the last year or so.

    Unsurprisingly, not many people are listening. Mainly because Labour is not in power.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    edited December 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Russia warns US that Ukraine will be its ‘second Vietnam’
    https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-warns-us-that-ukraine-will-be-its-second-vietnam-war/

    This is messaging designed to scare US voters, but is essentially rubbish. Annual US expenditures in Ukraine are somewhere around a quarter of one percent of GDP; at the height of the Vietnam conflict, the US was spending around ten times that percentage.

    And the US military are not deployed in Ukraine.

    Conversely, Russia grew its military during the Vietnam war years; in Ukraine it has lost a significant proportion of its military reserves.

    Ukraine is closer to a more costly second Afghanistan for Russia.

    Russia says many different things, often simultaneously, to different audiences; even if those things are contradictory: "We come in peace! Shoot to kill, shoot to kill..."

    I tend to ignore anything Russia says, as they are frankly as untrustworthy as Jimmy Saville in charge of a children's ward...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCARADb9asE
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    eekeek Posts: 24,947
    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    Not enough grown-ups left in the Tory Party to be able to take back control.

    It’s full of children scoring points from each other in an attempt to try and attract a few people they falsely believe to be former Tory voters
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    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Amazing he did so well considering his heritage of enslavement.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    kinabalu said:

    Off topic: Do we know when the SC are to rule on the Scottish GRR case?

    Unless I have missed it we haven't even had the decision from Lady Haldane yet. That should be issued shortly but the appeal from there is to the Inner House of the Court of Session and only from there to the Supreme Court if leave is granted. I very much doubt that we will have a Supreme Court decision in the next year. This very probably suits the SG fine because it keeps it in the long grass.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Taz said:

    148grss said:

    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    The Tories have been failing for 13 years, and are trying to pass a policy that Rwanda has said it might back out of if it doesn't follow international law. That also seems like a plan to tackle illegal immigration that adds up to sweet FA.
    True, the Tories have failed but Labour will be subjected to scrutiny on this and what is their policy. They have many who are pro open door migration, no human is illegal. Make the case if they want to advocate it. Or come up with something they want to offer in place of what we have currently.
    What do you mean by 'open door migration'?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326
    edited December 2023
    148grss said:

    See where that trend gets us by the next GE:

    image

    What are the lines of best fit for the other parties?
    Extrapolation has its limits, as extending a few more years would see the Tories in negative territory - votes only from Zombie Undead.

    I do think we are understimating the potential impact of Nigel Farage taking over Reform UK again (Tice seems OK with the idea). If he did that in a few months' time, the impact could be explosive.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Oi! Some of us haven't seen this yet.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Taz said:

    148grss said:

    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    The Tories have been failing for 13 years, and are trying to pass a policy that Rwanda has said it might back out of if it doesn't follow international law. That also seems like a plan to tackle illegal immigration that adds up to sweet FA.
    True, the Tories have failed but Labour will be subjected to scrutiny on this and what is their policy. They have many who are pro open door migration, no human is illegal. Make the case if they want to advocate it. Or come up with something they want to offer in place of what we have currently.
    Yes, I predict a Labour govt will collapse into infighting and incoherence on immigration within a year, or less

    They straddle every opinion from Let Them All In to “Down To Tens of Thousands”, and Starmer does not have the charisma to bind them all together, plus the issue is way more poisonous than it was under Blair/Brown

    Trouble ahead
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Oi! Some of us haven't seen this yet.
    Ah. Apologies. I am myself a day behind so I presumed you’ve all seen it!
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    Not enough grown-ups left in the Tory Party to be able to take back control.

    It’s full of children scoring points from each other in an attempt to try and attract a few people they falsely believe to be former Tory voters
    Children scoring points from each other. That's our whole politics in a nutshell. It is not just limited to one party.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911

    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.

    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.

    I have given up. Cashed out my Tory Maj bets long ago. Went in again laying Lab Maj at 1.36 in case Cameron made a difference, but he hasnt so I cashed out again at the same level. By cash out I mean took a decent loss!

    If Boris was still PM, the things you mention would have cone home to roost in the GE campaign. They still might to a lesser degree, but Sunak has no residual loyalty to call upon with the 2019 Tory voters, and lacks the charisma and gravitas to make any use of them

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    He over-egged his fish.

    Schoolboy error.

    (Mind you, my mother used to make an amazing fish pie which had halved boiled eggs in it.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Amazing he did so well considering his heritage of enslavement.
    I noticed some Moroccan flavors in his recipes so my guess is his forefathers made good their escape from Casablanca
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189

    148grss said:

    See where that trend gets us by the next GE:

    image

    What are the lines of best fit for the other parties?
    Extrapolation has its limits, as extending a few more years would see the Tories in negative territory - votes only from Zombie Undead.

    That is no way to refer to the pensioner vote. Show a little more respect for your compatriots.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    The Tories do really set themselves up for a colossal meme bash, don't they?

    Rishi Sunak when asked to show fiscal discipline.
    James Cleverly when asked what he called Stockton.
    Suella Braverman when asked why she's failed in all her jobs...

    Speaking of failure, that retard Spielman really copped it sweet today didn't she? As did Alan Derry and Chris Russell who were accused of lying (probably correctly since OFSTED hasn't done any training of any sort for many years, including safeguarding).

    But then, Spielman always was a fool. It's one reason why OFSTED's new inspection framework which she thinks everyone buys into(!) has been such a fiasco.
  • Options
    Boris Johnson is but a pathetic imitation of Winston Spencer-Churchill.

    NOT the legendary prime minister, but his less-legendary grandson.

    BTW, speaking of BoJo, is some poor char-person currently missing their mop?

    OR did Nick Fabricant donate one of his (hard-)used wigs to Boris Johnson's favorite thrift shop?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Oi! Some of us haven't seen this yet.
    Ah. Apologies. I am myself a day behind so I presumed you’ve all seen it!
    I'll avoid the topic for the next couple of days.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Oi! Some of us haven't seen this yet.
    Ah. Apologies. I am myself a day behind so I presumed you’ve all seen it!
    I'll avoid the topic for the next couple of days.
    You'll bake off?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    He over-egged his fish.

    Schoolboy error.

    (Mind you, my mother used to make an amazing fish pie which had halved boiled eggs in it.)
    Yes, I didn’t get the aversion to soft boiled eggs and fish?!

    As you say it’s classic fish pie territory. OK he used sea bass but hmm

    He probably was the weakest of the four tho, but no surprise seeing as he is 22. But ginger Tom is only 24, and I strongly suspect he might win the whole thing, he has barely made an error all series
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    148grss said:

    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    The Tories have been failing for 13 years, and are trying to pass a policy that Rwanda has said it might back out of if it doesn't follow international law. That also seems like a plan to tackle illegal immigration that adds up to sweet FA.
    True, the Tories have failed but Labour will be subjected to scrutiny on this and what is their policy. They have many who are pro open door migration, no human is illegal. Make the case if they want to advocate it. Or come up with something they want to offer in place of what we have currently.
    Yes, I predict a Labour govt will collapse into infighting and incoherence on immigration within a year, or less

    They straddle every opinion from Let Them All In to “Down To Tens of Thousands”, and Starmer does not have the charisma to bind them all together, plus the issue is way more poisonous than it was under Blair/Brown

    Trouble ahead
    There are certainly contradictions within labour over migration, as there are within the Tories. Call Me Dave was not a million miles away from the labour "let them all in" brigade whereas the Tory right would see far fewer come in. Labour are not struggling with it as they are in opposition but once in Power, you are right, it will be a major issue for them.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    He over-egged his fish.

    Schoolboy error.

    (Mind you, my mother used to make an amazing fish pie which had halved boiled eggs in it.)
    Yes, I didn’t get the aversion to soft boiled eggs and fish?!

    As you say it’s classic fish pie territory. OK he used sea bass but hmm

    He probably was the weakest of the four tho, but no surprise seeing as he is 22. But ginger Tom is only 24, and I strongly suspect he might win the whole thing, he has barely made an error all series
    It's not white to mix the two.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,144
    What are people's thoughts on whether Congress will vote any more money for Ukraine?

    I'm beginning to think that the Republicans are now simply looking for any excuse not to do so, in the hope that the Ukraine war goes badly for Ukraine, and so they can tie that failure to Biden.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Amazing he did so well considering his heritage of enslavement.
    I noticed some Moroccan flavors in his recipes so my guess is his forefathers made good their escape from Casablanca
    The two I liked, the French geeky lad with the specs and the Caribbean girl, both got canned when I predicted they'd go all the way along with Ginger guy who they just seem to adore.

    No one, on this show, has ever cooked dog before. Do you reckon they should ?
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    He over-egged his fish.

    Schoolboy error.

    (Mind you, my mother used to make an amazing fish pie which had halved boiled eggs in it.)
    "He over-egged his fish."

    Sound like a clever euphemism for some horrible act of degeneracy.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    What are people's thoughts on whether Congress will vote any more money for Ukraine?

    I'm beginning to think that the Republicans are now simply looking for any excuse not to do so, in the hope that the Ukraine war goes badly for Ukraine, and so they can tie that failure to Biden.

    Biden is no mug, they will do a deal. He will get the saner Republicans on board. The deal is not just for Ukraine but Israel and Gaza.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Amazing he did so well considering his heritage of enslavement.
    I noticed some Moroccan flavors in his recipes so my guess is his forefathers made good their escape from Casablanca
    The two I liked, the French geeky lad with the specs and the Caribbean girl, both got canned when I predicted they'd go all the way along with Ginger guy who they just seem to adore.

    No one, on this show, has ever cooked dog before. Do you reckon they should ?
    It would be hilarious: barbecued dog

    Sadly they won’t because the BBC would lose the licence fee the next day

    Yes the disappearance of French African geeky dude was a surprise. The even bigger surprise for me was when they kicked out the Arabian fusion Bath restaurant woman. One minute she was a genius, next: gone
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,632
    edited December 2023
    Let me get this right, the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill stipulates that:
    • Every decision-maker must conclusively treat the Republic of Rwanda as a
      safe country (regardless of any evidence to the contrary).
    • Sections 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, & 9 of the Human Rights Act 1998, are 'disapplied' where transportation to Rwanda is concerned.
    • It is for a Minister of the Crown (and only a Minister of the Crown) to decide whether the United Kingdom will comply with the ECHR.
    All seems a bit lily-livered. Why not go a bit further and include a clause to the effect that laws of the Kingdom may also be enacted by the government of the Kingdom? Saves all that hassle with getting votes through the HoC.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Taz said:

    What are people's thoughts on whether Congress will vote any more money for Ukraine?

    I'm beginning to think that the Republicans are now simply looking for any excuse not to do so, in the hope that the Ukraine war goes badly for Ukraine, and so they can tie that failure to Biden.

    Biden is no mug, they will do a deal. He will get the saner Republicans on board. The deal is not just for Ukraine but Israel and Gaza.
    @SeaShantyIrish2 has been unusually silent on Biden's support for Israel.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,144
    Taz said:

    What are people's thoughts on whether Congress will vote any more money for Ukraine?

    I'm beginning to think that the Republicans are now simply looking for any excuse not to do so, in the hope that the Ukraine war goes badly for Ukraine, and so they can tie that failure to Biden.

    Biden is no mug, they will do a deal. He will get the saner Republicans on board. The deal is not just for Ukraine but Israel and Gaza.
    But an insane Republican is currently Speaker of the House. There's no deal possible if he doesn't want a deal.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,122

    What a tool.

    Johnson says he avoided cooperating with devolved administrations for political reasons

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2023/dec/07/boris-johnson-uk-covid-inquiry-coronavirus-pandemic-live

    Johnson was very polished on the whole until around noon today. He has had an absolute shocker since then.

    What a disgusting, inconsistent, bullshitting, running-the-clock down reprobate. If this were a court of law he would be slapped down on the first sentence of each answer.

    I suspect Johnson saw this appearance as his resurrection launchpad. I hope this afternoon has scuppered all hope of a redux.

    What an arrogant vile b**tard.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,593

    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.

    Starmer had his Vindaloo.

    Sunak is facing his Waterloo.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,122
    Irony of ironies. Johnson calling anyone by else a "malingerer".

    Johnson likes the word "bollocks" doesn't he.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Amazing he did so well considering his heritage of enslavement.
    I noticed some Moroccan flavors in his recipes so my guess is his forefathers made good their escape from Casablanca
    The two I liked, the French geeky lad with the specs and the Caribbean girl, both got canned when I predicted they'd go all the way along with Ginger guy who they just seem to adore.

    No one, on this show, has ever cooked dog before. Do you reckon they should ?
    It would be hilarious: barbecued dog

    Sadly they won’t because the BBC would lose the licence fee the next day

    Yes the disappearance of French African geeky dude was a surprise. The even bigger surprise for me was when they kicked out the Arabian fusion Bath restaurant woman. One minute she was a genius, next: gone
    Yes, we were shocked at that too as she sailed through her first round. The other three were poor in comparison.

    If not barbecued dog then deep fried Tarantula (apparently it tastes like bacon with a texture of prawn) or Scorpion. When I worked in the rail industry with a supplier in Hong Kong one of the guys I deakt with adored scorpion.

    They are keen on a wide variety of cuisine so why not.

    I hope Kasae wins.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,632
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    Oi! Some of us haven't seen this yet.
    Ah. Apologies. I am myself a day behind so I presumed you’ve all seen it!
    This was never a problem back in the good old days of no streaming and no recorders. The inexorable decline of the West, eh?
  • Options
    Re: the grilling of Boris Johnson (figuratively speaking, do NOT get excited!) find myself wish that one of his inquisitors would ask him the following question - in Latin:

    "Mr. Johnson, given your high degree of classical learning, do you recall any of the commentaries of Cicero upon similar acts of mis- and malfeasance by the political and governmental leaders of his day?"

    Surely a softball of a question for such an eminent classicist? Or perhaps not.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.

    Starmer had his Vindaloo.
    Can you introduce him please
    To a lump of cheddar cheese
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Taz said:

    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.

    Starmer had his Vindaloo.
    Can you introduce him please
    To a lump of cheddar cheese
    Crackers.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,532
    ydoethur said:

    The Tories do really set themselves up for a colossal meme bash, don't they?

    Rishi Sunak when asked to show fiscal discipline.
    James Cleverly when asked what he called Stockton.
    Suella Braverman when asked why she's failed in all her jobs...

    Speaking of failure, that retard Spielman really copped it sweet today didn't she? As did Alan Derry and Chris Russell who were accused of lying (probably correctly since OFSTED hasn't done any training of any sort for many years, including safeguarding).

    But then, Spielman always was a fool. It's one reason why OFSTED's new inspection framework which she thinks everyone buys into(!) has been such a fiasco.
    I understand your antipathy towards Ofsted, although I'd gently suggest your use of 'retard' is unwise.

    It's clear that the Coroner concludes that the Lead Inspector was insensitive and intimidating, although it's also clear that the judgement of the original inspection was probably right under the current framework - as safeguarding is a limiting grade and the school hadn't carried out the necessary checks.

    The case raises, though, a whole raft of issues about performance management in both the public and private sectors, especially if such management is insensitive. Any system that can lead to judging an individual as a failure could also lead to that individual not being able to cope with it, and taking their own life. I'd be astonished if the Ruth Perry case, tragic though it is, is unique.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,593
    Taz said:

    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.

    Starmer had his Vindaloo.
    Can you introduce him please
    To a lump of cheddar cheese
    I think he'll be leaving the Cheddar vote to the LibDems.

    Red Leicester is more of a Labour cheese.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    DavidL said:

    148grss said:

    See where that trend gets us by the next GE:

    image

    What are the lines of best fit for the other parties?
    Extrapolation has its limits, as extending a few more years would see the Tories in negative territory - votes only from Zombie Undead.

    That is no way to refer to the pensioner vote. Show a little more respect for your compatriots.

    I notice that your hagiographic post on the previous thread has now got 9 'likes'! Either I don't know what I'm talking about or 9 posters are trying to give me that message (or maybe it's just the Tory posters last hurrah)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    He over-egged his fish.

    Schoolboy error.

    (Mind you, my mother used to make an amazing fish pie which had halved boiled eggs in it.)
    Yes, I didn’t get the aversion to soft boiled eggs and fish?!

    As you say it’s classic fish pie territory. OK he used sea bass but hmm

    He probably was the weakest of the four tho, but no surprise seeing as he is 22. But ginger Tom is only 24, and I strongly suspect he might win the whole thing, he has barely made an error all series
    Marcus is clearly a psychopath (just look at the opening shot of the cold eyes) - and subject to idiosyncratic food fads.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,547
    edited December 2023

    Taz said:

    What are people's thoughts on whether Congress will vote any more money for Ukraine?

    I'm beginning to think that the Republicans are now simply looking for any excuse not to do so, in the hope that the Ukraine war goes badly for Ukraine, and so they can tie that failure to Biden.

    Biden is no mug, they will do a deal. He will get the saner Republicans on board. The deal is not just for Ukraine but Israel and Gaza.
    But an insane Republican is currently Speaker of the House. There's no deal possible if he doesn't want a deal.
    "Armageddon Mike" Johnson can use his Speakership to impede a budget deal, but he can NOT prevent one PROVIDED a majority of the US House support a deal.

    Addendum - by "support" I mean NOT just with their mouths, but with their votes.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    148grss said:

    See where that trend gets us by the next GE:

    image

    What are the lines of best fit for the other parties?
    Extrapolation has its limits, as extending a few more years would see the Tories in negative territory - votes only from Zombie Undead.

    That is no way to refer to the pensioner vote. Show a little more respect for your compatriots.

    I notice that your hagiographic post on the previous thread has now got 9 'likes'! Either I don't know what I'm talking about or 9 posters are trying to give me that message (or maybe it's just the Tory posters last hurrah)
    LOL
    I'll give you one back!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,632
    edited December 2023

    Re: the grilling of Boris Johnson (figuratively speaking, do NOT get excited!) find myself wish that one of his inquisitors would ask him the following question - in Latin:

    "Mr. Johnson, given your high degree of classical learning, do you recall any of the commentaries of Cicero upon similar acts of mis- and malfeasance by the political and governmental leaders of his day?"

    Surely a softball of a question for such an eminent classicist? Or perhaps not.

    "Er, well, mumble-mumble, even the great Cicero himself, the magnus ipse orator, was, er, mumble, in, um... in hock to the top of his toga to Peppa Pigulus Cornelius Sulla if I am er, mumble, not, er, mistaken. And nor was Cicero averse to the occasional work's drinks gathering, while the pestilence, er, ravaged through Rome like mould through a ripe Stilton."
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Taz said:

    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.

    Starmer had his Vindaloo.
    Can you introduce him please
    To a lump of cheddar cheese
    I think he'll be leaving the Cheddar vote to the LibDems.

    Red Leicester is more of a Labour cheese.
    In the cheese ads in the eighties Ken Livingstone was the voice over for Red Leicester. Ore morecester as some advertising wag put it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    He over-egged his fish.

    Schoolboy error.

    (Mind you, my mother used to make an amazing fish pie which had halved boiled eggs in it.)
    Yes, I didn’t get the aversion to soft boiled eggs and fish?!

    As you say it’s classic fish pie territory. OK he used sea bass but hmm

    He probably was the weakest of the four tho, but no surprise seeing as he is 22. But ginger Tom is only 24, and I strongly suspect he might win the whole thing, he has barely made an error all series
    Marcus is clearly a psychopath (just look at the opening shot of the cold eyes) - and subject to idiosyncratic food fads.
    My ex wife (who enjoyed Masterchef as much as me) used to refer to him as Marcus Aurelius. He does have that kind of gravitas

    So when they now introduce the judges and they say “renowned chef Monica Galletti” and they move on to Marcus I shout over the commentary “and Marcus Aurelius, EMPEROR OF ROME”

    And it somehow fits

    It’s these pathetic little amusements which get me through my declining years
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    ydoethur said:

    The Tories do really set themselves up for a colossal meme bash, don't they?

    Rishi Sunak when asked to show fiscal discipline.
    James Cleverly when asked what he called Stockton.
    Suella Braverman when asked why she's failed in all her jobs...

    Speaking of failure, that retard Spielman really copped it sweet today didn't she? As did Alan Derry and Chris Russell who were accused of lying (probably correctly since OFSTED hasn't done any training of any sort for many years, including safeguarding).

    But then, Spielman always was a fool. It's one reason why OFSTED's new inspection framework which she thinks everyone buys into(!) has been such a fiasco.
    I understand your antipathy towards Ofsted, although I'd gently suggest your use of 'retard' is unwise.

    It's clear that the Coroner concludes that the Lead Inspector was insensitive and intimidating, although it's also clear that the judgement of the original inspection was probably right under the current framework - as safeguarding is a limiting grade and the school hadn't carried out the necessary checks.

    The case raises, though, a whole raft of issues about performance management in both the public and private sectors, especially if such management is insensitive. Any system that can lead to judging an individual as a failure could also lead to that individual not being able to cope with it, and taking their own life. I'd be astonished if the Ruth Perry case, tragic though it is, is unique.
    Why? She is a retard. A very stupid woman who is also unbelievably arrogant. I can see why she got on with Cummings. Her every move in education has been a catastrophe, from Ark to OFQUAL to OFSTED.

    And there is very considerable doubt as to whether there was fact anything wrong with the paperwork. OFSTED have form for deliberately failing schools on safeguarding to force academisation on them (incidentally there again Derry was at least wrong - it is the statutory duty of the SoS to issue an academy order for a school that has failed on safeguarding. Interesting to note that in this case it hasn't happened, which tells me all I need to know about what was going on).

    These peoples' mistakes have cost Ruth Perry her life and done enormous damage to the education of millions of children. They may not have meant it but they took on these jobs and have failed in them. They deserve every ounce of opprobrium we can give them.

    The irony being, of course, that OFSTED itself has no actual safeguarding procedures, does not have up to date DBS checks on its inspectors and does not do its statutory training. So on its own terms, it is Inadequate.

    Incidentally this is why the Knight report was a bad idea. Self-evaluation is what OFSTED has and look at the disaster it has wrought. There should always be second checks on anything important.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Video on TwiX of mass surrender by Hamas militants

    DYOR, natch
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    Taz said:

    On topic, I'm surprised that Beergate/Kormagate/Hypocritgate haven't yet led to a deep plunge in Labour's poll ratings.

    Still time, though. Don't give up, Isam.

    Starmer had his Vindaloo.
    Can you introduce him please
    To a lump of cheddar cheese
    I think he'll be leaving the Cheddar vote to the LibDems.

    Red Leicester is more of a Labour cheese.
    Sunak's more of a Monterey Jack man
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    148grss said:

    See where that trend gets us by the next GE:

    image

    What are the lines of best fit for the other parties?
    Extrapolation has its limits, as extending a few more years would see the Tories in negative territory - votes only from Zombie Undead.

    That is no way to refer to the pensioner vote. Show a little more respect for your compatriots.

    I notice that your hagiographic post on the previous thread has now got 9 'likes'! Either I don't know what I'm talking about or 9 posters are trying to give me that message (or maybe it's just the Tory posters last hurrah)
    LOL
    I'll give you one back!
    If it's the one about the government not being all that bad because things are not all that bad, isn't it more the case that the government is so incompetent that it's failing to do almost anything and that, actually, is not a bad thing. Some countries with PR go months or even years without a formal government agreement and it doesn't seem to do any harm. Doing nothing/failing to do anything is often not a bad idea, at least in the short(ish) term. It's certainly better than actually managing to do stupid things.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    148grss said:

    See where that trend gets us by the next GE:

    image

    What are the lines of best fit for the other parties?
    Extrapolation has its limits, as extending a few more years would see the Tories in negative territory - votes only from Zombie Undead.

    That is no way to refer to the pensioner vote. Show a little more respect for your compatriots.

    I notice that your hagiographic post on the previous thread has now got 9 'likes'! Either I don't know what I'm talking about or 9 posters are trying to give me that message (or maybe it's just the Tory posters last hurrah)
    LOL
    I'll give you one back!
    Too much information...
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    He over-egged his fish.

    Schoolboy error.

    (Mind you, my mother used to make an amazing fish pie which had halved boiled eggs in it.)
    Yes, I didn’t get the aversion to soft boiled eggs and fish?!

    As you say it’s classic fish pie territory. OK he used sea bass but hmm

    He probably was the weakest of the four tho, but no surprise seeing as he is 22. But ginger Tom is only 24, and I strongly suspect he might win the whole thing, he has barely made an error all series
    Marcus is clearly a psychopath (just look at the opening shot of the cold eyes) - and subject to idiosyncratic food fads.
    He only got the gig because the previous chef was advertising potatoes and this was a conflict of interest, apparently.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    148grss said:

    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    The Tories have been failing for 13 years, and are trying to pass a policy that Rwanda has said it might back out of if it doesn't follow international law. That also seems like a plan to tackle illegal immigration that adds up to sweet FA.
    True, the Tories have failed but Labour will be subjected to scrutiny on this and what is their policy. They have many who are pro open door migration, no human is illegal. Make the case if they want to advocate it. Or come up with something they want to offer in place of what we have currently.
    Yes, I predict a Labour govt will collapse into infighting and incoherence on immigration within a year, or less

    They straddle every opinion from Let Them All In to “Down To Tens of Thousands”, and Starmer does not have the charisma to bind them all together, plus the issue is way more poisonous than it was under Blair/Brown

    Trouble ahead
    There are certainly contradictions within labour over migration, as there are within the Tories. Call Me Dave was not a million miles away from the labour "let them all in" brigade whereas the Tory right would see far fewer come in. Labour are not struggling with it as they are in opposition but once in Power, you are right, it will be a major issue for them.
    There is not a single difficult issue that will be solved just by the election of a Labour/Labour led government. But there is a chance that they will feel sufficiently strong to start with a degree of truth, a direction of travel and an approach which is both consistent and morally comprehensible.

    Migration/asylum/refugees looks among the hardest of these as no range of solutions to satisfy most people most of the time is not available. If it were 13 yeras would be enough for the Tories to achieve it, and Labour would be even now giving clues as to what it is.

    If they can avoid promising 'tens of thousands', explain what their policy is, avoid simultaneously contradictory policies and policies that break the law it would be a small improvement.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Nigelb said:

    Russia warns US that Ukraine will be its ‘second Vietnam’
    https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-warns-us-that-ukraine-will-be-its-second-vietnam-war/

    This is messaging designed to scare US voters, but is essentially rubbish. Annual US expenditures in Ukraine are somewhere around a quarter of one percent of GDP; at the height of the Vietnam conflict, the US was spending around ten times that percentage.

    And the US military are not deployed in Ukraine.

    Conversely, Russia grew its military during the Vietnam war years; in Ukraine it has lost a significant proportion of its military reserves.

    Ukraine is closer to a more costly second Afghanistan for Russia.

    It is true: Ukraine will be another Vietnam. Specifically, Russia's Vietnam.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    148grss said:

    Taz said:

    No sign yet of the grown-ups taking back control of the Tory Party, I see.
    That tweet is not wrong though.
    The Tories have been failing for 13 years, and are trying to pass a policy that Rwanda has said it might back out of if it doesn't follow international law. That also seems like a plan to tackle illegal immigration that adds up to sweet FA.
    True, the Tories have failed but Labour will be subjected to scrutiny on this and what is their policy. They have many who are pro open door migration, no human is illegal. Make the case if they want to advocate it. Or come up with something they want to offer in place of what we have currently.
    Yes, I predict a Labour govt will collapse into infighting and incoherence on immigration within a year, or less

    They straddle every opinion from Let Them All In to “Down To Tens of Thousands”, and Starmer does not have the charisma to bind them all together, plus the issue is way more poisonous than it was under Blair/Brown

    Trouble ahead
    There are certainly contradictions within labour over migration, as there are within the Tories. Call Me Dave was not a million miles away from the labour "let them all in" brigade whereas the Tory right would see far fewer come in. Labour are not struggling with it as they are in opposition but once in Power, you are right, it will be a major issue for them.
    There is not a single difficult issue that will be solved just by the election of a Labour/Labour led government. But there is a chance that they will feel sufficiently strong to start with a degree of truth, a direction of travel and an approach which is both consistent and morally comprehensible.
    .
    This is what I am hoping for.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    edited December 2023
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Masterchef

    PFFF!

    They kicked out the Cornish lad!!

    Nooooo

    Mind you, he is just 22. How can you be that good a chef, at 22?? Phenomenal. He will have a fine career

    He over-egged his fish.

    Schoolboy error.

    (Mind you, my mother used to make an amazing fish pie which had halved boiled eggs in it.)
    Yes, I didn’t get the aversion to soft boiled eggs and fish?!

    As you say it’s classic fish pie territory. OK he used sea bass but hmm

    He probably was the weakest of the four tho, but no surprise seeing as he is 22. But ginger Tom is only 24, and I strongly suspect he might win the whole thing, he has barely made an error all series
    Marcus is clearly a psychopath (just look at the opening shot of the cold eyes) - and subject to idiosyncratic food fads.
    My ex wife (who enjoyed Masterchef as much as me) used to refer to him as Marcus Aurelius. He does have that kind of gravitas

    So when they now introduce the judges and they say “renowned chef Monica Galletti” and they move on to Marcus I shout over the commentary “and Marcus Aurelius, EMPEROR OF ROME”

    And it somehow fits

    It’s these pathetic little amusements which get me through my declining years
    I suspect him of stocking chianti and fava beans in his larder.
  • Options
    from a few weeks back but still apropos

    Seattle Times ($) - ‘Escape liberal hell’: Republicans really are fleeing WA

    Danny Westneat - At first, the ads seemed like a pandemic-era curiosity, a niche political pitch playing on the red state, blue state divide.

    “Escape liberal hell,” counseled one sales video from a Boise, Idaho, real estate agent. “Here are seven reasons conservatives flock to Idaho.” . . .

    The idea that people would pick up and move solely for politics has seemed like a stretch. Moving for a job, schools, space, a rural lifestyle, yes. People relocate for all sorts of reasons — nearly 250,000 moved here from another U.S. state last year, with 258,000 going the other way, the Census Bureau says.

    But now, there’s solid evidence that some people really are migrating over partisanship.

    This past week, Idaho released a database of voters who have moved into that state, along with where they came from and what political party they signed up for when they got there. . . .

    The political makeup of who has moved to Idaho is eye-opening. It is, as the Idaho Capital Sun news site called it, a “Republican fever dream.”

    Of about 119,000 voters who relocated to Idaho in recent years, 65% signed up as Republican. That’s significantly higher than the partisan makeup of the state already, which is 58% GOP.

    Only 12% of the newcomers registered as Democrats. About 21% picked “unaffiliated” and 2% chose a third party such as Libertarian.

    The data explodes the myth that liberals, untethered due to remote work, might be moving to Idaho or other red states from San Francisco and Seattle and potentially turning the interior more purple. The exact opposite is happening — people are segregating into like-minded, polarized, geographical camps.

    Sixty-two percent of Washingtonians who moved to Idaho registered as Republicans, the data shows. Only 12% were Democrats. Ours is a 60-40 blue state, roughly, so this means Republicans are preferentially sorting themselves out of Washington state at high rates. . . .

    From Seattle, the data shows 34% who relocated to Idaho were GOPers. (Seattle tends to vote only about 10% Republican.) . . . .

    It is a fever dream for Idaho Republicans to turn that state into a fortress against liberalism — an American redoubt, some of them call it.

    But red migration like this to the interior is a nightmare for the Washington state GOP. Its own customers are fleeing.

    You can now even choose your real estate agent by their politics. The company GOP Agent “is here to help you connect with a Real Estate Agent who shares your Republican ideals and values,” their website says.

    “One of our realtors held an info session in Seattle (about moving to a red State), and had over 150 attendees,” according to the Conservative Move Facebook page. “The interest in moving to red states is not slowing down.”

    I hope they warned them that Idaho has a state income tax. [Washington State does NOT.] Could be a sticker shock upon arrival.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Nigelb said:

    Note for Leon

    US imports from Mexico now surpass imports from China.
    https://twitter.com/ssankar/status/1730735579120422995

    While that's true, the net impact is much smaller because many Mexican assemblers are using mostly US components.
This discussion has been closed.