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What will Reform voters do at the general election? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited November 2023 in General
imageWhat will Reform voters do at the general election? – politicalbetting.com

There are either 12 or perhaps fewer months to the General Election, and the Labour lead in the polls seems solidly in the mid to high teens. The recent Autumn Statement seems to be having no real effect on that lead. Is it possible for the Tories to close that gap? One possibility mooted is that Reform Party (REFUK) voters will switch to the Conservatives when that GE focuses minds. It does seem as if REFUKs predecessor The Brexit Party voters did at GE 2019, and the Brexit Party did stood aside in Conservative seats, so an area worth exploring.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    Reform are the Tories worst nightmare, could seriously damage their chances in quite a few constituencies
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,117
    edited November 2023
    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.
  • Options
    Great header (ie I agree with it).
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    Yes, there is one possibly simple explanation, but there are others, including the Cult of Boris holding Sunak as the villain.

    Sorry about the odd typo in the piece, but I think the point gets across. These voters really don't like the current incarnation of the Tories.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited November 2023
    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.
  • Options
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/26/west-bank-armed-youths-palestinian-militants-fight

    This is an interesting/ depressing/ perhaps unsurprising insight into the mindset of young Palestinian men living in the West Bank. Tldr - they're angry and frustrated and don't think they have anything to lose.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    What they’re most likely to do, is hand a swathe of working-class and Northern constituencies to Labour at the next election.

    Thanks @foxy for a good piece.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited November 2023

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/26/west-bank-armed-youths-palestinian-militants-fight

    This is an interesting/ depressing/ perhaps unsurprising insight into the mindset of young Palestinian men living in the West Bank. Tldr - they're angry and frustrated and don't think they have anything to lose.

    You'd almost think that stealing people's grandparents' land during a war, illegally refusing to let them return, walling them up in ghettos that get smaller every year, blockading their neighbours in Gaza and then invading and partially destroying it is a good way to piss them off.

    That's a very partisan view of the complicated history, but it's what they think and it explains their attitudes and why Hamas, or some successor, will never be short of recruits.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    Ironic, when you consider 'Farage' is a French name, he has German ancestry and his two latest squeezes have been French and German.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    I’ve always assumed that the RefUK vote would return home at the GE. But now I’m not so sure. I know the RefUK organiser in the adjoining constituency from the local pub and the sense I get is that they are as angry with the Tories as they are Labour. Don’t really understand that anger, tbh, but it’s definitely there.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    edited November 2023
    Interesting thread header.

    Personally I have always thought that if anything will save Sunak it's differential turnout. People say they vote Labour because it's cool, but how many will turn out at crunch time? We see how mad the left of Labour still is with him over Corbyn (although to be fair his party looks altogether more wholesome without most of the far left) and there is no Blair-style wave of enthusiasm.

    That, however, rather presupposes that Tory voters will turn out themselves. Recent events suggest this may be a bold assumption.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    I’ve always assumed that the RefUK vote would return home at the GE. But now I’m not so sure. I know the RefUK organiser in the adjoining constituency from the local pub and the sense I get is that they are as angry with the Tories as they are Labour. Don’t really understand that anger, tbh, but it’s definitely there.

    The government have overseen, to many working class voters, high inflation and a drop in living standards since the last election. There will be a group of their previous voters opposing them from the left, who will likely vote Labour; and a group opposing them from the right, who will either sit on their hands or vote Reform.

    Tice says he’s intending to stand someone in every seat in GB.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting thread header.

    Personally I have always thought that if anything will save Sunak it's differential turnout. People say they vote Labour because it's cool, but how many will turn out at crunch time? We see how mad the left of Labour still is with him over Corbyn (although to be fair his party looks altogether more wholesome without most of the far left) and there is no Blair-style wave of enthusiasm.

    That, however, rather presupposes that Tory voters will turn out themselves. Recent events suggest this may be a bold assumption.

    In 1997 Labour gained 2m voters on 1992, but the Tories lost 4m voters. Many 2019 Tories are likely to sit on their hands in 2024.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    The issue isn’t immigration. The issue is housing.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
  • Options

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    And has always been so. Including when Powell was Minister for Health trawled the Commonwealth for trained staff for the NHS.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    edited November 2023

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    I think outright racism is now pretty rare in our society, which in itself is a major change over my lifetime. Throughout all of history overt racism was a common and even mundane view, right through to the 1960s, including Britain.

    That's not to say implicit and institutional racism have disappeared, but while we may disagree with its extent, or whether anti-zionism is intrinsically anti-semitic, there is near universal agreement that racism is bad.

    Anti-immigrant feeling is not purely racial, but also about practical issues like housing, job opportunities, social mobility and also a fear of "the other". That perceived threat to indigenous cultures is not to be dismissed, though neither should it be exagerrated.

    Immigrants do assimilate, yet retain some distinctive cultural traits. When we have a recent Home Secretary of Mauritian Hindu and East African Goan Christian descent, who follows a Bhuddist sect, and is married to a practicing Jew who can rail that "Multiculturalism has failed" we can see that assimilation does indeed happen.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,475
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    The issue isn’t immigration. The issue is housing.
    And the Tories have utterly failed to deliver on that, too.
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 898
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    Yes, there is one possibly simple explanation, but there are others, including the Cult of Boris holding Sunak as the villain.

    Sorry about the odd typo in the piece, but I think the point gets across. These voters really don't like the current incarnation of the Tories.
    Really interesting article Foxy (and congrats on the wins yesterday -both City and Tigers). In South Leicestershire the Tories appear to have a massive majority but Alberto Costa is clearly rattled - brought up a local by-election in the constituency in the debate on the Autumn Statement - shame Cleverly wasn't heard to say something rude about Glen Parva where the by-election is - Costa sounds very Scottish so having a Glen in Leicestershire is ironic! look out for the results on 21st December - The Local Lib Dems are fighting hard and at the local election votes show that it is very close -a big Reform (or whatever they are called come the GE) would be very helpful. How do we encourage it?
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 898
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    The issue isn’t immigration. The issue is housing.
    And the Tories have utterly failed to deliver on that, too.
    ......and house building has stopped dead. Builders can't sell the ones they have built so wont start any more for sale - some social housing may go ahead but probably not the finance to make much of a difference. Every month the GE is delayed the housing figures will be worse, which wont help the Conservatives.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194
    The biggest problem for the Tories with this group is one we have discussed before. Starmer doesn’t scare them, in fact they see Starmer as much of the same.

    If the consequence of them telling the Tories what they really think was someone like Corbyn many would hold their nose and vote Tory to stop him. They will not do that for Starmer so the Tories are more likely to bleed votes to the right than in 2019 or 2017.

    Yet more bad news for Sunak I’m afraid.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960
    Icarus said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    The issue isn’t immigration. The issue is housing.
    And the Tories have utterly failed to deliver on that, too.
    ......and house building has stopped dead. Builders can't sell the ones they have built so wont start any more for sale - some social housing may go ahead but probably not the finance to make much of a difference. Every month the GE is delayed the housing figures will be worse, which wont help the Conservatives.
    You wouldn’t think housebuilding has stopped dead in this neck of the woods! Massive estate apparently being built a few miles away and two smaller ones closer.
    Whether or not all the houses will be sold, is, of course, a different question!

    And good morning to one and all. And congratulations to Foxy on the header!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,475
    edited November 2023
    S Korea is discussing inheritance tax reform - their rate being the highest in the world.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=363652

    Interesting thing is that the extremely wealthy often do pay large amounts of IHT.

    ...Korea's rate, well over double the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) average of 25 percent, first came to media attention in 2021 when the tax for the bereaved family members of the late Samsung Group Chairman Lee Kun-hee amounted to 12 trillion won ($9.3 billion).

    The figure is about triple the 2.8 billion won sought from the heirs of former Apple CEO Steve Jobs in 2011. Lee's widow and three children agreed to pay the total amount in five-year installments through 2026. Their primary method of payment has been and will continue to be through stock loans, a move to limit unwanted changes in the current crossholding structure.

    Currently, a tax rate in a range of between 10 percent and 50 percent is imposed in a five-stage system. The minimum is for bequeathed amounts lower than 100 million won and the maximum is for 3 billion won or greater. The maximum tax rate of 60 percent includes 20 percent extra on the largest shareholders of large firms bequeathing stocks to their family members...
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    The biggest problem for the Tories with this group is one we have discussed before. Starmer doesn’t scare them, in fact they see Starmer as much of the same.

    If the consequence of them telling the Tories what they really think was someone like Corbyn many would hold their nose and vote Tory to stop him. They will not do that for Starmer so the Tories are more likely to bleed votes to the right than in 2019 or 2017.

    Yet more bad news for Sunak I’m afraid.

    But also, Boris did tell them what they thought. There would be milk, honey and no need to share it with others. It was tosh then as it is now, but BoJo had the verve to carry it off.

    Sunak is turning out to be just as dishonest. However, when push comes to shove, his vision is more "a land safe for hedge fund squillionaires" and (more importantly) he's not capable of styling it out.

    If the political benefit of charisma is to be able to lie more effectively, Sunak's lack of charisma is probably for the best.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,475
    Likely good news for the incumbent party.

    Taiwan's main opposition party announces vice presidential candidate as hopes for alliance fracture
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=363886
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194
    The second biggest problem is that to change the views of this group Sunak would require policies that would cause millions of centre right voters to either vote for someone else or at least sit on their hands. He tried to court them with Braverman and it seriously undermined him and the party.

    With Hunt and Cameron on board he won’t do that again. He is going to steer more towards the centre ground and try to wrestle some of those more numerous voters off Starmer. But a lot of damage has been done and he has too little time to repair it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
  • Options
    Mr. Leon, I wouldn't worry. If Warhammer lore has taught us anything, it's that AI is nothing to be scared of.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    edited November 2023
    Icarus said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    Yes, there is one possibly simple explanation, but there are others, including the Cult of Boris holding Sunak as the villain.

    Sorry about the odd typo in the piece, but I think the point gets across. These voters really don't like the current incarnation of the Tories.
    Really interesting article Foxy (and congrats on the wins yesterday -both City and Tigers). In South Leicestershire the Tories appear to have a massive majority but Alberto Costa is clearly rattled - brought up a local by-election in the constituency in the debate on the Autumn Statement - shame Cleverly wasn't heard to say something rude about Glen Parva where the by-election is - Costa sounds very Scottish so having a Glen in Leicestershire is ironic! look out for the results on 21st December - The Local Lib Dems are fighting hard and at the local election votes show that it is very close -a big Reform (or whatever they are called come the GE) would be very helpful. How do we encourage it?
    The first half was poor, but Watfords goalie did a few good saves to keep them in the game, then being redcarded in injury time, so a hapless defender had to don shirt and gloves to try to save a Vardy penalty, so a good afternoons entertainment!

    What did Costas say in Parliament about Glen Parva? I missed that? Is it to do with the new prison?

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    Mr. Leon, I wouldn't worry. If Warhammer lore has taught us anything, it's that AI is nothing to be scared of.

    I’m not scared, I’m stimulated

    We could be living through the most interesting years in human history
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Also, if I had any bitcoin, I’d sell it soon

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,319
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    Yes, there is one possibly simple explanation, but there are others, including the Cult of Boris holding Sunak as the villain.

    Sorry about the odd typo in the piece, but I think the point gets across. These voters really don't like the current incarnation of the Tories.
    The problem that people have with him, from various people I’ve spoke to, is that he is management consultant - the guy who produces the report closing the factory where you work. Then the company goes bankrupt anyway.

    To many people, this typifies what is wrong with the country.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194

    DavidL said:

    The biggest problem for the Tories with this group is one we have discussed before. Starmer doesn’t scare them, in fact they see Starmer as much of the same.

    If the consequence of them telling the Tories what they really think was someone like Corbyn many would hold their nose and vote Tory to stop him. They will not do that for Starmer so the Tories are more likely to bleed votes to the right than in 2019 or 2017.

    Yet more bad news for Sunak I’m afraid.

    But also, Boris did tell them what they thought. There would be milk, honey and no need to share it with others. It was tosh then as it is now, but BoJo had the verve to carry it off.

    Sunak is turning out to be just as dishonest. However, when push comes to shove, his vision is more "a land safe for hedge fund squillionaires" and (more importantly) he's not capable of styling it out.

    If the political benefit of charisma is to be able to lie more effectively, Sunak's lack of charisma is probably for the best.
    Boris was able to get them on board because he channeled their anger at the undemocratic twats in the remainer Parliament who were determined to overturn the outcome of the referendum. He was never far right , indeed he has always been at the wetter end of the party but the end of his Love Actually advert summed up his campaign: “ enough, enough let’s get this done “.

    Sunak doesn’t have such a weapon. His attempt to make the boat people a similar target has blown up in his face. These people are lost to him.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,475
    .
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    The liberal use of 'if's in that video (and your précis) is, if nothing else, a perfect demonstration of begging the question.

    We will brace ourselves for your next breathless report.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    A thing not to be ignored is that terms like left and right are misleading. There are people who currently support Reform and have defected from the Tories and might return. Fine.

    But for many who veer that way (UKIP, Brexit, Reform, even BNP in the bad old days) their natural home is Labour.

    Labour is absolutely split between Hampstead/Guardian/Free Palestine Labour and those for whom for 100 years Labour has been the party most on the side of the bloke who gets up early to work 48 hours a week. In the long run Labour needs their votes most of all.

    As a generally Tory voter I and a few million others can (and this time will) vote for the second Labour party. Nothing would get me to vote for the first. I think Starmer knows this.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    I think outright racism is now pretty rare in our society, which in itself is a major change over my lifetime. Throughout all of history overt racism was a common and even mundane view, right through to the 1960s, including Britain.

    That's not to say implicit and institutional racism have disappeared, but while we may disagree with its extent, or whether anti-zionism is intrinsically anti-semitic, there is near universal agreement that racism is bad.

    Anti-immigrant feeling is not purely racial, but also about practical issues like housing, job opportunities, social mobility and also a fear of "the other". That perceived threat to indigenous cultures is not to be dismissed, though neither should it be exagerrated.

    Immigrants do assimilate, yet retain some distinctive cultural traits. When we have a recent Home Secretary of Mauritian Hindu and East African Goan Christian descent, who follows a Bhuddist sect, and is married to a practicing Jew who can rail that "Multiculturalism has failed" we can see that assimilation does indeed happen.

    But bigots and racists including those running certain Conservative (multiculturalism doesn't work) and other rightward leaning campaigns (Brexit?) weave racism into wider social shortcomings. " There is a housing shortage because of foreigners". " You can't get a doctor's appointment because of foreigners". " Foreigners are driving down wages". The message is, your life would be fantastic if it wasn't for foreigners. The upside is more compelling , and that of "foreigners" are your doctor, your nurse, your social carer, your Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary and your former Home Secretaries may be of overseas descent.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    DavidL said:

    The second biggest problem is that to change the views of this group Sunak would require policies that would cause millions of centre right voters to either vote for someone else or at least sit on their hands. He tried to court them with Braverman and it seriously undermined him and the party.

    With Hunt and Cameron on board he won’t do that again. He is going to steer more towards the centre ground and try to wrestle some of those more numerous voters off Starmer. But a lot of damage has been done and he has too little time to repair it.

    When we look at poll shares the big 2 of Con and Lab are at around 70% (Scotlind is different of course) so there is a big chunk of the electorate who choose a third party that is not going to form a government or opposition and may well struggle to gain any seats. Reform is only one of several, and the motivations of these voters a rather neglected topic.

    I see Reform poll slightly worse in Scotland, but still around 5%. I wonder what is going on in their thinking.

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    Today's Sunday Rawnsley:

    [Hunt] spoke as if getting more out of the economy was a novel idea that had never occurred to anyone before, but his is the 12th growth plan the Tories have fanfared since 2010, which makes it one for almost every year they have been in power.

    Osbornite austerity, sporadic interventionism during the May days, Johnsonian Brexit boosterism, the self-destructing experiment of Liz Truss, each of these was presented as the road to nirvana. Yet Britain still finds itself trudging through the dark valley of grim growth and high taxes while living standards have taken a horrible beating. It is true that many of the advanced economies have been struggling to significantly improve their productivity ...Yet Britain has performed worse than most of its peers in critical respects.

    Bad decision-making explains some of this. So does the repellent way our politics has been conducted. Investors, both domestic and international, prefer a predictable environment to a chaotic one. This has been an era of Tory instability. Five prime ministers since 2010, seven chancellors and nine business secretaries.

    There is wide agreement that Mr Hunt did announce some useful reforms to encourage investment and speed up economically beneficial projects. Against that, the chancellor added a drag to growth by declaring a cash freeze in government investment spending.

    Labour’s emphasis on growth is smart and welcome, but a lot of question marks hover over whether Sir Keir and Ms Reeves can pass the tests the Conservatives have flunked. Labour is now putting a lot of weight on generating growth from planning reforms designed to accelerate housebuilding and the construction of critical infrastructure. That and refashioning government to become “an agile state” working in partnership with trades unions and business. I get a bit of a sense of deja vu about that too.

    A Labour government will be handed a nation with miserable productivity, emasculated public services, big debts, high tax levels and acute inequalities. The ultimate success or otherwise of a Labour government will be determined above all else by whether it can deliver a more vigorous economy. You could even call it Sir Keir’s holy grail. His government will fail if the quest for growth eludes him as dismally as it has the Tories.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
    I have to say that I found the presenter in his Starship Enterprise top and serious innumeracy somewhat less than compelling. The idea that this computer has discovered new maths beyond our understanding looks like a cop out ( having said that I have strong suspicions that existing maths can do a lot more on breaking encryption than the likes of CCHQ ever let on).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
    I have to say that I found the presenter in his Starship Enterprise top and serious innumeracy somewhat less than compelling. The idea that this computer has discovered new maths beyond our understanding looks like a cop out ( having said that I have strong suspicions that existing maths can do a lot more on breaking encryption than the likes of CCHQ ever let on).
    Doesn’t really matter what your opinion is. If that leaked letter is legit: wow

    And now, quite fittingly, I am off to eat a dog
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
    I have to say that I found the presenter in his Starship Enterprise top and serious innumeracy somewhat less than compelling. The idea that this computer has discovered new maths beyond our understanding looks like a cop out ( having said that I have strong suspicions that existing maths can do a lot more on breaking encryption than the likes of CCHQ ever let on).
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
    I have to say that I found the presenter in his Starship Enterprise top and serious innumeracy somewhat less than compelling. The idea that this computer has discovered new maths beyond our understanding looks like a cop out ( having said that I have strong suspicions that existing maths can do a lot more on breaking encryption than the likes of CCHQ ever let on).
    Also, the innumeracy - as I pointed out - is the fault of the tweeter - not the guy in the YouTube video - which is the substantive matter here
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    DavidL said:

    The second biggest problem is that to change the views of this group Sunak would require policies that would cause millions of centre right voters to either vote for someone else or at least sit on their hands. He tried to court them with Braverman and it seriously undermined him and the party.

    With Hunt and Cameron on board he won’t do that again. He is going to steer more towards the centre ground and try to wrestle some of those more numerous voters off Starmer. But a lot of damage has been done and he has too little time to repair it.

    Yes. People in their millions are going to vote elsewhere or stay at home because of what the Tories have already done, not because of what they are going to do in a few months. The votes they can buy back will exist, and enough perhaps to prevent a Labour OM, but that's all. (Thus NOM remains value).

    To those paying attention of course, it is obvious that Sunak foolishly tried (and still tries) to ride both the One Nation and Populist horses at the same time. This proves to them that he is not serious enough.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    I am struggling to work out who to vote for as I am not very keen on either Labour or Conservative and have no fondness for the liberal democrats, and don't want to spoil my ballot. I would consider voting for reform or reclaim just really as an alternative to the above.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,319
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
    I have to say that I found the presenter in his Starship Enterprise top and serious innumeracy somewhat less than compelling. The idea that this computer has discovered new maths beyond our understanding looks like a cop out ( having said that I have strong suspicions that existing maths can do a lot more on breaking encryption than the likes of CCHQ ever let on).
    Any “crypto” that would have taken 37 years to crack is crap anyway. Anything vaguely secure is based on problems that take geologically significant time to crack.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    The Conservative Party deputy chairman, Lee Anderson, has been secretly recorded claiming that he was offered “a lot of money” to defect to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.

    Anderson, 56, made the comments at a “Lagers with Lee” meeting at Cambridge Rugby Club last month after saying: “We’re not taping this, are we?”

    In the recording of the event, hosted by South Cambridgeshire Conservative Association, the Tory MP for Ashfield revealed that he had been approached to defect to Reform UK.

    Anderson told activists at the gathering: “Now there is a political party that begins with an R that offered me a lot of money to join them. I say a lot of money, I mean a lot of money.”

    The leaked recording is likely to set off alarm bells in Downing Street, which is already reeling from the news of last year’s record-breaking net migration figure of 745,000.

    Senior Tories fear that Nigel Farage, currently appearing in the reality TV show I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!, is only too happy to exploit Conservative divisions over immigration following the recent sacking of Suella Braverman as home secretary.

    In a sign of the growing anxiety about the threat posed by Farage and Reform UK, the prime minister said in an interview with the Mail on Sunday: “A vote for everyone who is not a Conservative is a vote to put Keir Starmer into office.

    “The question for people who care about tackling migration, who want to get our taxes down, who think we need to have more common sense in our discourse is: do you want Keir Starmer or me to be your prime minister?”...

    ...Richard Tice, the Reform UK leader, denied Anderson’s claim that he had been offered money to defect, adding: “Desperate Tories will make desperate lies to save their skin.”

    But the Conservative Party revealed last night that Anderson told Simon Hart, the chief whip, in February this year that he had been offered money by Reform UK — previously known as the Brexit party and founded with support from Farage in 2018 — to defect...\.

    ...Hart met the Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, to inform him that senior Tory MPs were being offered £400,000-plus “bribes” to defect to Reform UK, which the party believed may be against electoral law. The chief whip claimed the offers were based on an agreement that if MPs joined Reform UK they would be guaranteed to receive up to five years of their MP’s salary if they lost their seat after defecting. MPs’ pay increased to £86,584 in April, making five years’ salary worth about £430,000.

    Hoyle is now expected to ask the chief whip to pass any details the party has of the Anderson case to the police.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lee-anderson-offered-money-defect-reform-party-03fktxrl2
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    While antipathy to Sunak’s Indian ancestry will be a reason for some, it is also obvious why supporters of an anti-immigration party would be reluctant to vote for a government that has seen record levels of immigration.

  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The biggest problem for the Tories with this group is one we have discussed before. Starmer doesn’t scare them, in fact they see Starmer as much of the same.

    If the consequence of them telling the Tories what they really think was someone like Corbyn many would hold their nose and vote Tory to stop him. They will not do that for Starmer so the Tories are more likely to bleed votes to the right than in 2019 or 2017.

    Yet more bad news for Sunak I’m afraid.

    But also, Boris did tell them what they thought. There would be milk, honey and no need to share it with others. It was tosh then as it is now, but BoJo had the verve to carry it off.

    Sunak is turning out to be just as dishonest. However, when push comes to shove, his vision is more "a land safe for hedge fund squillionaires" and (more importantly) he's not capable of styling it out.

    If the political benefit of charisma is to be able to lie more effectively, Sunak's lack of charisma is probably for the best.
    Boris was able to get them on board because he channeled their anger at the undemocratic twats in the remainer Parliament who were determined to overturn the outcome of the referendum. He was never far right , indeed he has always been at the wetter end of the party but the end of his Love Actually advert summed up his campaign: “ enough, enough let’s get this done “.

    Sunak doesn’t have such a weapon. His attempt to make the boat people a similar target has blown up in his face. These people are lost to him.
    Up to a point, though the Conservatives who spat out the May plan as Not A Proper Brexit (figurehead: Alex de Pfeffel) played a big part there as well.

    And then there were the indicative votes, which were canned just as they were getting somewhere. Two rounds was never going to be enough for a deliberative process like that- think how long Papal conclaves take.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
    I have to say that I found the presenter in his Starship Enterprise top and serious innumeracy somewhat less than compelling. The idea that this computer has discovered new maths beyond our understanding looks like a cop out ( having said that I have strong suspicions that existing maths can do a lot more on breaking encryption than the likes of CCHQ ever let on).
    Any “crypto” that would have taken 37 years to crack is crap anyway. Anything vaguely secure is based on problems that take geologically significant time to crack.
    Is it not that the code is one of 10 to the power of 37 of options, which is for all practical purposes equivalent to an infinite amount of time at current computing speeds?

    (Unless you have a backdoor type technique).
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The biggest problem for the Tories with this group is one we have discussed before. Starmer doesn’t scare them, in fact they see Starmer as much of the same.

    If the consequence of them telling the Tories what they really think was someone like Corbyn many would hold their nose and vote Tory to stop him. They will not do that for Starmer so the Tories are more likely to bleed votes to the right than in 2019 or 2017.

    Yet more bad news for Sunak I’m afraid.

    But also, Boris did tell them what they thought. There would be milk, honey and no need to share it with others. It was tosh then as it is now, but BoJo had the verve to carry it off.

    Sunak is turning out to be just as dishonest. However, when push comes to shove, his vision is more "a land safe for hedge fund squillionaires" and (more importantly) he's not capable of styling it out.

    If the political benefit of charisma is to be able to lie more effectively, Sunak's lack of charisma is probably for the best.
    Boris was able to get them on board because he channeled their anger at the undemocratic twats in the remainer Parliament who were determined to overturn the outcome of the referendum. He was never far right , indeed he has always been at the wetter end of the party but the end of his Love Actually advert summed up his campaign: “ enough, enough let’s get this done “.

    Sunak doesn’t have such a weapon. His attempt to make the boat people a similar target has blown up in his face. These people are lost to him.
    Up to a point, though the Conservatives who spat out the May plan as Not A Proper Brexit (figurehead: Alex de Pfeffel) played a big part there as well.

    And then there were the indicative votes, which were canned just as they were getting somewhere. Two rounds was never going to be enough for a deliberative process like that- think how long Papal conclaves take.
    In my lifetime most Papal conclaves have taken a few days. The remainer Parliament deliberately wasted 2 years. They had no intention of ever finding a way forward.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124

    The Conservative Party deputy chairman, Lee Anderson, has been secretly recorded claiming that he was offered “a lot of money” to defect to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.

    Anderson, 56, made the comments at a “Lagers with Lee” meeting at Cambridge Rugby Club last month after saying: “We’re not taping this, are we?”

    In the recording of the event, hosted by South Cambridgeshire Conservative Association, the Tory MP for Ashfield revealed that he had been approached to defect to Reform UK.

    Anderson told activists at the gathering: “Now there is a political party that begins with an R that offered me a lot of money to join them. I say a lot of money, I mean a lot of money.”

    The leaked recording is likely to set off alarm bells in Downing Street, which is already reeling from the news of last year’s record-breaking net migration figure of 745,000.

    Senior Tories fear that Nigel Farage, currently appearing in the reality TV show I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!, is only too happy to exploit Conservative divisions over immigration following the recent sacking of Suella Braverman as home secretary.

    In a sign of the growing anxiety about the threat posed by Farage and Reform UK, the prime minister said in an interview with the Mail on Sunday: “A vote for everyone who is not a Conservative is a vote to put Keir Starmer into office.

    “The question for people who care about tackling migration, who want to get our taxes down, who think we need to have more common sense in our discourse is: do you want Keir Starmer or me to be your prime minister?”...

    ...Richard Tice, the Reform UK leader, denied Anderson’s claim that he had been offered money to defect, adding: “Desperate Tories will make desperate lies to save their skin.”

    But the Conservative Party revealed last night that Anderson told Simon Hart, the chief whip, in February this year that he had been offered money by Reform UK — previously known as the Brexit party and founded with support from Farage in 2018 — to defect...\.

    ...Hart met the Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, to inform him that senior Tory MPs were being offered £400,000-plus “bribes” to defect to Reform UK, which the party believed may be against electoral law. The chief whip claimed the offers were based on an agreement that if MPs joined Reform UK they would be guaranteed to receive up to five years of their MP’s salary if they lost their seat after defecting. MPs’ pay increased to £86,584 in April, making five years’ salary worth about £430,000.

    Hoyle is now expected to ask the chief whip to pass any details the party has of the Anderson case to the police.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lee-anderson-offered-money-defect-reform-party-03fktxrl2

    How does one get invited to "Lagers with Leenoch"?
  • Options

    The Conservative Party deputy chairman, Lee Anderson, has been secretly recorded claiming that he was offered “a lot of money” to defect to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.

    Anderson, 56, made the comments at a “Lagers with Lee” meeting at Cambridge Rugby Club last month after saying: “We’re not taping this, are we?”

    In the recording of the event, hosted by South Cambridgeshire Conservative Association, the Tory MP for Ashfield revealed that he had been approached to defect to Reform UK.

    Anderson told activists at the gathering: “Now there is a political party that begins with an R that offered me a lot of money to join them. I say a lot of money, I mean a lot of money.”

    The leaked recording is likely to set off alarm bells in Downing Street, which is already reeling from the news of last year’s record-breaking net migration figure of 745,000.

    Senior Tories fear that Nigel Farage, currently appearing in the reality TV show I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!, is only too happy to exploit Conservative divisions over immigration following the recent sacking of Suella Braverman as home secretary.

    In a sign of the growing anxiety about the threat posed by Farage and Reform UK, the prime minister said in an interview with the Mail on Sunday: “A vote for everyone who is not a Conservative is a vote to put Keir Starmer into office.

    “The question for people who care about tackling migration, who want to get our taxes down, who think we need to have more common sense in our discourse is: do you want Keir Starmer or me to be your prime minister?”...

    ...Richard Tice, the Reform UK leader, denied Anderson’s claim that he had been offered money to defect, adding: “Desperate Tories will make desperate lies to save their skin.”

    But the Conservative Party revealed last night that Anderson told Simon Hart, the chief whip, in February this year that he had been offered money by Reform UK — previously known as the Brexit party and founded with support from Farage in 2018 — to defect...\.

    ...Hart met the Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, to inform him that senior Tory MPs were being offered £400,000-plus “bribes” to defect to Reform UK, which the party believed may be against electoral law. The chief whip claimed the offers were based on an agreement that if MPs joined Reform UK they would be guaranteed to receive up to five years of their MP’s salary if they lost their seat after defecting. MPs’ pay increased to £86,584 in April, making five years’ salary worth about £430,000.

    Hoyle is now expected to ask the chief whip to pass any details the party has of the Anderson case to the police.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lee-anderson-offered-money-defect-reform-party-03fktxrl2

    How does one get invited to "Lagers with Leenoch"?
    You have to be very naughty.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Good thread header Foxy, thanks!
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    theProletheProle Posts: 948
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    The issue isn’t immigration. The issue is housing.
    The two are linked together. The main reason we're having to build loads of housing is for all the immigrants, indeed we're not actually building enough housing to keep up with the rate of immigration.
    Voters aren't stupid and can see this. I would rather that we didn't concrete over large chunks of the country to build estates of nasty Barrett houses. My small town has nearly doubled in ten years, during which time there has been no corresponding increase in infrastructure, and a lot of it's character has been destroyed, but the price of houses has gone up by 50%.
    I want enough building to bring the price of housing down so it's easily affordable again. But that is impossible all the while the government ships in 3/4 of a million people a year.

    The only long term sustainable solution is net zero immigration - the only question is how long will it take a government to realise and act on this, and how much worse will the moment of truth be when it happens?

    Incidentally, all those people who are calling people like me racists, and think that's why we don't want to vote for the gimp in Downing St - you're nasty dirty liars trying to smear a view you disagree with by ascribing views to people which they do not have. There are hardly any real racists left in the country, my problem with Rishi is what he's doing, not who he is, and that will be true of 99% of RefUk voters too.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Today's Sunday Rawnsley:

    [Hunt] spoke as if getting more out of the economy was a novel idea that had never occurred to anyone before, but his is the 12th growth plan the Tories have fanfared since 2010, which makes it one for almost every year they have been in power.

    Osbornite austerity, sporadic interventionism during the May days, Johnsonian Brexit boosterism, the self-destructing experiment of Liz Truss, each of these was presented as the road to nirvana. Yet Britain still finds itself trudging through the dark valley of grim growth and high taxes while living standards have taken a horrible beating. It is true that many of the advanced economies have been struggling to significantly improve their productivity ...Yet Britain has performed worse than most of its peers in critical respects.

    Bad decision-making explains some of this. So does the repellent way our politics has been conducted. Investors, both domestic and international, prefer a predictable environment to a chaotic one. This has been an era of Tory instability. Five prime ministers since 2010, seven chancellors and nine business secretaries.

    There is wide agreement that Mr Hunt did announce some useful reforms to encourage investment and speed up economically beneficial projects. Against that, the chancellor added a drag to growth by declaring a cash freeze in government investment spending.

    Labour’s emphasis on growth is smart and welcome, but a lot of question marks hover over whether Sir Keir and Ms Reeves can pass the tests the Conservatives have flunked. Labour is now putting a lot of weight on generating growth from planning reforms designed to accelerate housebuilding and the construction of critical infrastructure. That and refashioning government to become “an agile state” working in partnership with trades unions and business. I get a bit of a sense of deja vu about that too.

    A Labour government will be handed a nation with miserable productivity, emasculated public services, big debts, high tax levels and acute inequalities. The ultimate success or otherwise of a Labour government will be determined above all else by whether it can deliver a more vigorous economy. You could even call it Sir Keir’s holy grail. His government will fail if the quest for growth eludes him as dismally as it has the Tories.

    This is exactly the problem for StarmerLabour. If they really do want to get us out of the current muddle, structural reform is needed, and there will be winners and losers. At the moment, Starmer and Reeves are petrified of giving the impression that anything controversial will happen in a Labour government (beyond perhaps the planning reform piece). I get it from an electoral standpoint, but they are going to be confronted with a lot of challenges when governing, and failure to be honest upfront may cost them. Either that, or they stick their heads in the sand and carry on with the status quo, which would be very bad for our country.

    Interesting times ahead.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    That's a little trite given a lot of these polls show the voters who really dislike Sunak want Braverman or Badenoch to replace him.
  • Options

    The Conservative Party deputy chairman, Lee Anderson, has been secretly recorded claiming that he was offered “a lot of money” to defect to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.

    Anderson, 56, made the comments at a “Lagers with Lee” meeting at Cambridge Rugby Club last month after saying: “We’re not taping this, are we?”

    In the recording of the event, hosted by South Cambridgeshire Conservative Association, the Tory MP for Ashfield revealed that he had been approached to defect to Reform UK.

    Anderson told activists at the gathering: “Now there is a political party that begins with an R that offered me a lot of money to join them. I say a lot of money, I mean a lot of money.”

    The leaked recording is likely to set off alarm bells in Downing Street, which is already reeling from the news of last year’s record-breaking net migration figure of 745,000.

    Senior Tories fear that Nigel Farage, currently appearing in the reality TV show I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!, is only too happy to exploit Conservative divisions over immigration following the recent sacking of Suella Braverman as home secretary.

    In a sign of the growing anxiety about the threat posed by Farage and Reform UK, the prime minister said in an interview with the Mail on Sunday: “A vote for everyone who is not a Conservative is a vote to put Keir Starmer into office.

    “The question for people who care about tackling migration, who want to get our taxes down, who think we need to have more common sense in our discourse is: do you want Keir Starmer or me to be your prime minister?”...

    ...Richard Tice, the Reform UK leader, denied Anderson’s claim that he had been offered money to defect, adding: “Desperate Tories will make desperate lies to save their skin.”

    But the Conservative Party revealed last night that Anderson told Simon Hart, the chief whip, in February this year that he had been offered money by Reform UK — previously known as the Brexit party and founded with support from Farage in 2018 — to defect...\.

    ...Hart met the Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, to inform him that senior Tory MPs were being offered £400,000-plus “bribes” to defect to Reform UK, which the party believed may be against electoral law. The chief whip claimed the offers were based on an agreement that if MPs joined Reform UK they would be guaranteed to receive up to five years of their MP’s salary if they lost their seat after defecting. MPs’ pay increased to £86,584 in April, making five years’ salary worth about £430,000.

    Hoyle is now expected to ask the chief whip to pass any details the party has of the Anderson case to the police.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lee-anderson-offered-money-defect-reform-party-03fktxrl2

    This is a re-hash of an old story. The timeline in the story itself confirms this, if rather clumsily. In February Anderson told Chief Whip about the money offer and the Chief Whip told the Speaker, yet we are expected to believe that now some 9 months later Sir Lindsay is finally asking the Chief Whip to pass details to the police. ST clearly short of stories this morning.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    I think outright racism is now pretty rare in our society, which in itself is a major change over my lifetime. Throughout all of history overt racism was a common and even mundane view, right through to the 1960s, including Britain.

    That's not to say implicit and institutional racism have disappeared, but while we may disagree with its extent, or whether anti-zionism is intrinsically anti-semitic, there is near universal agreement that racism is bad.

    Anti-immigrant feeling is not purely racial, but also about practical issues like housing, job opportunities, social mobility and also a fear of "the other". That perceived threat to indigenous cultures is not to be dismissed, though neither should it be exagerrated.

    Immigrants do assimilate, yet retain some distinctive cultural traits. When we have a recent Home Secretary of Mauritian Hindu and East African Goan Christian descent, who follows a Bhuddist sect, and is married to a practicing Jew who can rail that "Multiculturalism has failed" we can see that assimilation does indeed happen.

    But bigots and racists including those running certain Conservative (multiculturalism doesn't work) and other rightward leaning campaigns (Brexit?) weave racism into wider social shortcomings. " There is a housing shortage because of foreigners". " You can't get a doctor's appointment because of foreigners". " Foreigners are driving down wages". The message is, your life would be fantastic if it wasn't for foreigners. The upside is more compelling , and that of "foreigners" are your doctor, your nurse, your social carer, your Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary and your former Home Secretaries may be of overseas descent.
    Yes but even there racism is a secondary factor to lack of jobs, houses or dentists. It was the genius of Dominic Cummings, aided and abetted by Boris Johnson, to tie these proximate causes of alienation not to immigrants but to the European Union. Obviously this was largely nonsense but that is why levelling up mattered after Brexit if these voters were to be retained in the blue column but alas, levelling up could not be delivered by a chaotic Prime Minister like Boris and was actively undermined then abandoned by Rishi.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
    I have to say that I found the presenter in his Starship Enterprise top and serious innumeracy somewhat less than compelling. The idea that this computer has discovered new maths beyond our understanding looks like a cop out ( having said that I have strong suspicions that existing maths can do a lot more on breaking encryption than the likes of CCHQ ever let on).
    Any “crypto” that would have taken 37 years to crack is crap anyway. Anything vaguely secure is based on problems that take geologically significant time to crack.
    It’s not 37 years. The tweeter got it wrong. Watch the video

    Ok I am approaching the dog eating cafe
  • Options
    Morning! A good thread:
    Why are REFUK voters unsympathetic to Sunak? Cos he's brown.
    Will REFUK voters go home to the Tories? Nope.

    The interesting thing about UKIXPFUK is the journey that so many of its voters have been on. Many were the "bigoted woman" strain of the left who wandered towards Farage and are still there. Others the shire bigots who dislike anyone who isn't exactly like them.

    In 2019 we saw the Tories win a majority of 80. There are many seats at least in the NE where the UKIXPFUK vote was bigger than the Tory majority. They didn't go home to the Tories then - and that Tory party offered (at least on paper) what they want). Why would they vote Tory this time when it is the opposite of what they want?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    algarkirk said:

    A thing not to be ignored is that terms like left and right are misleading. There are people who currently support Reform and have defected from the Tories and might return. Fine.

    But for many who veer that way (UKIP, Brexit, Reform, even BNP in the bad old days) their natural home is Labour.

    Labour is absolutely split between Hampstead/Guardian/Free Palestine Labour and those for whom for 100 years Labour has been the party most on the side of the bloke who gets up early to work 48 hours a week. In the long run Labour needs their votes most of all.

    As a generally Tory voter I and a few million others can (and this time will) vote for the second Labour party. Nothing would get me to vote for the first. I think Starmer knows this.

    Labour has always been a coalition between urban intellectuals and the working class. Attlee was a middle class London Lawyer too.

    I don't think that Sunak/Hunts Tories and Starmer/Reeves Labour are similar ideologically. Indeed they are miles apart philosophically.

    The reasons that their policies look so similar is more to do with economic , financial and social reality as government and alternative government. They are heavily constrained in what they can do with an ageing population, failing civic institutions, poor growth and flat productivity.

    This creates a gap for dissenters of all stripes to propose fantasy policies that appeal to the disaffected. Those parties are a safety valve, and can frame debates, but are never going to wake up on a Friday morning and actually have to implement their promises.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    A thing not to be ignored is that terms like left and right are misleading. There are people who currently support Reform and have defected from the Tories and might return. Fine.

    But for many who veer that way (UKIP, Brexit, Reform, even BNP in the bad old days) their natural home is Labour.

    Labour is absolutely split between Hampstead/Guardian/Free Palestine Labour and those for whom for 100 years Labour has been the party most on the side of the bloke who gets up early to work 48 hours a week. In the long run Labour needs their votes most of all.

    As a generally Tory voter I and a few million others can (and this time will) vote for the second Labour party. Nothing would get me to vote for the first. I think Starmer knows this.

    Labour has always been a coalition between urban intellectuals and the working class. Attlee was a middle class London Lawyer too.

    I don't think that Sunak/Hunts Tories and Starmer/Reeves Labour are similar ideologically. Indeed they are miles apart philosophically.

    The reasons that their policies look so similar is more to do with economic , financial and social reality as government and alternative government. They are heavily constrained in what they can do with an ageing population, failing civic institutions, poor growth and flat productivity.

    This creates a gap for dissenters of all stripes to propose fantasy policies that appeal to the disaffected. Those parties are a safety valve, and can frame debates, but are never going to wake up on a Friday morning and actually have to implement their promises.
    Except it did happen in 2019. And we've seen how well that has gone.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    darkage said:

    I am struggling to work out who to vote for as I am not very keen on either Labour or Conservative and have no fondness for the liberal democrats, and don't want to spoil my ballot. I would consider voting for reform or reclaim just really as an alternative to the above.

    I share your dilemma but from a very different perspective. Voting in a top-20 safe Tory seat in the south west, I'm resolutely left of centre, who do I vote for?

    LibDems were narrowly second beating Corbyn's Labour into 3rd last time, so I'll probably go with them (though I'm not convinced they're left of centre at all) but in truth mine is a wasted vote whatever I do (thanks FPTP!).
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    The second biggest problem is that to change the views of this group Sunak would require policies that would cause millions of centre right voters to either vote for someone else or at least sit on their hands. He tried to court them with Braverman and it seriously undermined him and the party.

    With Hunt and Cameron on board he won’t do that again. He is going to steer more towards the centre ground and try to wrestle some of those more numerous voters off Starmer. But a lot of damage has been done and he has too little time to repair it.

    When we look at poll shares the big 2 of Con and Lab are at around 70% (Scotlind is different of course) so there is a big chunk of the electorate who choose a third party that is not going to form a government or opposition and may well struggle to gain any seats. Reform is only one of several, and the motivations of these voters a rather neglected topic.

    I see Reform poll slightly worse in Scotland, but still around 5%. I wonder what is going on in their thinking.

    It may be because the media very largely ignore them but I frankly have no idea what Tice and his cohort really want.

    Their current headline is that they want net zero immigration. Its a nice play on words but it is not a serious policy when we still have a million vacancies and find it much easier to increase employment than increase investment and productivity. The hard work in reducing immigration is improving our skills base, the value added in our schools and further education and changing the ratio between more labour and more investment. The small steps Hunt took with capital allowances are welcome and in the long run may reduce immigration by much more than the Rwanda nonsense ever will.

    To me, and all parties do this to varying degrees, they describe a world that they would like to live in rather than address the issues in this one. But then I am not their target audience.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    What’s allegedly going to crack maths, and therefore encryption, isn’t AGI but quantum computing.
    Watch the YT video. It was always presumed it would take quantum computing to crack crypto, but OpenAI have maybe - MAYBE - done it with a different model

    Could all be bullshit, tho
    I have to say that I found the presenter in his Starship Enterprise top and serious innumeracy somewhat less than compelling. The idea that this computer has discovered new maths beyond our understanding looks like a cop out ( having said that I have strong suspicions that existing maths can do a lot more on breaking encryption than the likes of CCHQ ever let on).
    Any “crypto” that would have taken 37 years to crack is crap anyway. Anything vaguely secure is based on problems that take geologically significant time to crack.
    It’s not 37 years. The tweeter got it wrong. Watch the video

    Ok I am approaching the dog eating cafe
    I thought the idea was to approach the cafe, eating dog?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    That's a little trite given a lot of these polls show the voters who really dislike Sunak want Braverman or Badenoch to replace him.
    I agree. I don't think Racism is the main driver of the REFUK polling numbers. It is more personal to Sunak and his government.

    Though as @DavidL points out, recapturing the REFUK voters risks a much bigger pool of centrists.

  • Options

    Morning! A good thread:
    Why are REFUK voters unsympathetic to Sunak? Cos he's brown.
    Will REFUK voters go home to the Tories? Nope.

    The interesting thing about UKIXPFUK is the journey that so many of its voters have been on. Many were the "bigoted woman" strain of the left who wandered towards Farage and are still there. Others the shire bigots who dislike anyone who isn't exactly like them.

    In 2019 we saw the Tories win a majority of 80. There are many seats at least in the NE where the UKIXPFUK vote was bigger than the Tory majority. They didn't go home to the Tories then - and that Tory party offered (at least on paper) what they want). Why would they vote Tory this time when it is the opposite of what they want?

    Partly his skin colour, but also everything about him screams "globetrotting citizen of nowhere".

    To an extent, that was true of Boris (born in NY, son of an MEP). But he covered it up with bluster. And of Braverman (studied at the Sorbonne, but I don't want to look inside her head) and Badenoch, though their life stories haven't really been poked into because they're not important enough yet.

    But Rishi couldn't pull off "stout patriot" even if he tried. Which he doesn't.

    Part of 2016-9 was a revolt against the metropolitan elites. Unfortunately, it was a revolt led by a different elite, many of them pining for a bigger stage than a mere metropolis. And I'm not sure it's a better one.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Reform will achieve its objective of punishing the Tories, and therefore influencing who the next leader will be and what policies they support.

    The level of their voteshare is more up in the air, but doesn't need to be big to achieve the goal, at least when Labour are doing well enough for the Reform hit on the Tories to make things even worse.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,339
    I don't think Reform voters would be likeky to be invited to anyone's supper table
  • Options
    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
    It is fairly obvious where this is going, but I see no way to stop it. Humans are the new lemmings.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    That's a little trite given a lot of these polls show the voters who really dislike Sunak want Braverman or Badenoch to replace him.
    I agree. I don't think Racism is the main driver of the REFUK polling numbers. It is more personal to Sunak and his government.

    Though as DavidL points out, recapturing the REFUK voters risks a much bigger pool of centrists.

    In theory it does. But the Tories are so low in the polls they may have already lost those.

    So it may be the case they'd do better chasing the ReFuk vote as they have more to gain and not many centrist left to lose.

    However they've been sporadic in chasing it and now give the impression of trying to move away from it in the last reshuffle, so I think they've decided large parts of the ReFuk support is lost top.

    Agreed its not racism.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Very useful thread. Thanks @Foxy
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    That's a little trite given a lot of these polls show the voters who really dislike Sunak want Braverman or Badenoch to replace him.
    Hmmm... is that true of ex-Tory voters who now say they will vote Reform?

    As Foxy points outReform's numbers ticked up when Sunak became PM. They were averaging 3% throughout 2022 until 25 October; by the end of 2022 they were averaging 7%.

    It feels sadly plausible to me that 4 or 5% of the electorate are racists who will never vote for Sunak (or Braverman or Badenoch).
  • Options
    theProletheProle Posts: 948
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    The second biggest problem is that to change the views of this group Sunak would require policies that would cause millions of centre right voters to either vote for someone else or at least sit on their hands. He tried to court them with Braverman and it seriously undermined him and the party.

    With Hunt and Cameron on board he won’t do that again. He is going to steer more towards the centre ground and try to wrestle some of those more numerous voters off Starmer. But a lot of damage has been done and he has too little time to repair it.

    When we look at poll shares the big 2 of Con and Lab are at around 70% (Scotlind is different of course) so there is a big chunk of the electorate who choose a third party that is not going to form a government or opposition and may well struggle to gain any seats. Reform is only one of several, and the motivations of these voters a rather neglected topic.

    I see Reform poll slightly worse in Scotland, but still around 5%. I wonder what is going on in their thinking.

    It may be because the media very largely ignore them but I frankly have no idea what Tice and his cohort really want.

    Their current headline is that they want net zero immigration. Its a nice play on words but it is not a serious policy when we still have a million vacancies and find it much easier to increase employment than increase investment and productivity. The hard work in reducing immigration is improving our skills base, the value added in our schools and further education and changing the ratio between more labour and more investment. The small steps Hunt took with capital allowances are welcome and in the long run may reduce immigration by much more than the Rwanda nonsense ever will.

    To me, and all parties do this to varying degrees, they describe a world that they would like to live in rather than address the issues in this one. But then I am not their target audience.
    I'm going to disagree. If we pretty much stopped issuing work visas tomorrow, the market would sort it out. Wages in certain sectors would rise, there would be some bumps along the road (remember a couple of years back when you couldn't get a lorry driver for love or money), we'd stop doing some unproductive or marginally productive things, but ultimately the market would ensure that the things which we actually value would get done.

    The big win that would help would be to try and get rid of all the pointless make-work jobs which tied people up in unproductive employment (in both the public and private sectors). If we deregulated so that companies didn't need huge HR departments mostly dedicated to ensuring that people can't sue them, if we sacked every single person in the public sector with diversity in their job title (not a single one of whom will have ever created a single penny of value), if we were to remove the requirements for firms of consultants to write environmental impact assessments running to hundreds of pages for every planning application, and then teams of planning officers to read said statement etc. etc. etc, then there would be quite a large pool of people released to go and do productive employment like caring for the old.
  • Options

    Morning! A good thread:
    Why are REFUK voters unsympathetic to Sunak? Cos he's brown.
    Will REFUK voters go home to the Tories? Nope.

    The interesting thing about UKIXPFUK is the journey that so many of its voters have been on. Many were the "bigoted woman" strain of the left who wandered towards Farage and are still there. Others the shire bigots who dislike anyone who isn't exactly like them.

    In 2019 we saw the Tories win a majority of 80. There are many seats at least in the NE where the UKIXPFUK vote was bigger than the Tory majority. They didn't go home to the Tories then - and that Tory party offered (at least on paper) what they want). Why would they vote Tory this time when it is the opposite of what they want?

    Partly his skin colour, but also everything about him screams "globetrotting citizen of nowhere".

    To an extent, that was true of Boris (born in NY, son of an MEP). But he covered it up with bluster. And of Braverman (studied at the Sorbonne, but I don't want to look inside her head) and Badenoch, though their life stories haven't really been poked into because they're not important enough yet.

    But Rishi couldn't pull off "stout patriot" even if he tried. Which he doesn't.

    Part of 2016-9 was a revolt against the metropolitan elites. Unfortunately, it was a revolt led by a different elite, many of them pining for a bigger stage than a mere metropolis. And I'm not sure it's a better one.
    It is his wealth not his skin colour that comes up in the focus groups.

    FWIW - Labour will absolutely hammer that point if inheritance tax is cut.

    'Sunak has just decided to give his family a £300 million tax cut' will be the Labour attack line.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
    It is fairly obvious where this is going, but I see no way to stop it. Humans are the new lemmings.
    I think eventually we'll all have our personal daemon, perhaps a chip. Our guardian angel.
  • Options
    theProle said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Surely it IS fairly clear why Reform voters dislike Sunak so much, especially if you spend a little time on right-wing messaging boards. He has presided over record immigration, a record peacetime tax burden, falling living standards and is generally seen as out of touch. He is also brown himself, though I don't think that's a decisive factor for most.

    Anti-immigration rhetoric has served the Conservatives well since beyond the days of Enoch Powell. It worked for Peter Griffiths in Smethwick in the early 1960s. And back at the tail end of the Blair/Brown Labour Government someone somewhere deep in CCHQ thought it would be big and clever to reheat that old chestnut by claiming that a net 100,000 (mainly EU) nationals arriving on our shores was unacceptable. I didn't have a problem with our fellow EU citizens moving here and assimilating into our society. The argument
    against was spurious and disingenuous. England in particular has always seen its thriving economy require imported labour, be that Irish labourers to build the canals and railways or post war Welsh school teachers. Not to mention train drivers, doctors and nurses from the Caribbean.

    And here we are now, a net immigration of 600,000 to keep our economy going, and because of Brexit those people, necessary incomers to keep our economy on track are from places that make our bigoted racist friends turn puce with rage. But hey, Boris told you any shortfall in labour after Brexit would be reliant on "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". A truth the bigots ignored because they were so used to him lying. And to cap it all, those self-same Tory politicians who lit this version of the immigration touch paper nearly 20 years ago are again raging that legal immigration is out of control, pretending it is not on their watch, and it is not they're fault.

    Economic migration is a fact of life. If in the 1950s you wanted the buses to run, you relied on help from the commonwealth, now we are reliant on anyone who wants to travel 5,000 miles to look after our elderly parents because we don't have the time or inclination. Maybe if the Tories didn't keep weaponising immigration to the UK they wouldn't find themselves in this political dilemma, a dilemma authored by them.

    And as to your last statement, it's almost worth voting Tory, if only to piss off people who baulk at the idea of a non- white Prime Minister. Sod 'em!
    The issue isn’t immigration. The issue is housing.
    The two are linked together. The main reason we're having to build loads of housing is for all the immigrants, indeed we're not actually building enough housing to keep up with the rate of immigration.
    Voters aren't stupid and can see this. I would rather that we didn't concrete over large chunks of the country to build estates of nasty Barrett houses. My small town has nearly doubled in ten years, during which time there has been no corresponding increase in infrastructure, and a lot of it's character has been destroyed, but the price of houses has gone up by 50%.
    I want enough building to bring the price of housing down so it's easily affordable again. But that is impossible all the while the government ships in 3/4 of a million people a year.

    The only long term sustainable solution is net zero immigration - the only question is how long will it take a government to realise and act on this, and how much worse will the moment of truth be when it happens?

    Incidentally, all those people who are calling people like me racists, and think that's why we don't want to vote for the gimp in Downing St - you're nasty dirty liars trying to smear a view you disagree with by ascribing views to people which they do not have. There are hardly any real racists left in the country, my problem with Rishi is what he's doing, not who he is, and that will be true of 99% of RefUk voters too.
    It is not that governments don't aspire to net zero immigration, or at least sub <100k immigration, it is that they are unable to find a way to deliver that and stay in power. Whilst the public wants much lower immigration, it also wants lower taxes, better public services and retirement by their sixties. Zero immigration is not compatible with those and voters will hammer any government which fails on them far more than they will hammer a government on immigration.
  • Options
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
    It is fairly obvious where this is going, but I see no way to stop it. Humans are the new lemmings.
    I think eventually we'll all have our personal daemon, perhaps a chip. Our guardian angel.
    Why would the AI not just get rid of us?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    That's a little trite given a lot of these polls show the voters who really dislike Sunak want Braverman or Badenoch to replace him.
    Hmmm... is that true of ex-Tory voters who now say they will vote Reform?

    As Foxy points outReform's numbers ticked up when Sunak became PM. They were averaging 3% throughout 2022 until 25 October; by the end of 2022 they were averaging 7%.

    It feels sadly plausible to me that 4 or 5% of the electorate are racists who will never vote for Sunak (or Braverman or Badenoch).
    I was assuming they were Trussites miffed at La Truss getting the push and blaming Sunak because it couldn't possibly have been her own stupid fault, no siree, no way, her policies were too awesome.
  • Options

    I’ve always assumed that the RefUK vote would return home at the GE. But now I’m not so sure. I know the RefUK organiser in the adjoining constituency from the local pub and the sense I get is that they are as angry with the Tories as they are Labour. Don’t really understand that anger, tbh, but it’s definitely there.

    Immigration is 1.2 million* and you don't understand why they are angry?

    *Yes, this is the gross, not the net, figure but it was the £350m gross figure that went on the side of the bus.
  • Options

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    That's a little trite given a lot of these polls show the voters who really dislike Sunak want Braverman or Badenoch to replace him.
    Hmmm... is that true of ex-Tory voters who now say they will vote Reform?

    As Foxy points outReform's numbers ticked up when Sunak became PM. They were averaging 3% throughout 2022 until 25 October; by the end of 2022 they were averaging 7%.

    It feels sadly plausible to me that 4 or 5% of the electorate are racists who will never vote for Sunak (or Braverman or Badenoch).
    There are racists but it won't drive the majority of it.

    The switchers would have happened if Sunak was white, the cost of living crisis etc has damaged the Tory vote, the Truss bombshell of higher mortgages filtered through on Sunak's watch.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited November 2023

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
    It is fairly obvious where this is going, but I see no way to stop it. Humans are the new lemmings.
    I think eventually we'll all have our personal daemon, perhaps a chip. Our guardian angel.
    Why would the AI not just get rid of us?
    Most of us don't get rid of our dogs, though admittedly some of us do eat them. @Leon
  • Options

    Chris said:

    Why should an anti-immigration party be reluctant to vote for a prime minister with Indian ancestry? It's an unfathomable mystery.

    That's a little trite given a lot of these polls show the voters who really dislike Sunak want Braverman or Badenoch to replace him.
    Hmmm... is that true of ex-Tory voters who now say they will vote Reform?

    As Foxy points outReform's numbers ticked up when Sunak became PM. They were averaging 3% throughout 2022 until 25 October; by the end of 2022 they were averaging 7%.

    It feels sadly plausible to me that 4 or 5% of the electorate are racists who will never vote for Sunak (or Braverman or Badenoch).
    The defection of these voters is less about Rishi and more about Boris and Liz Truss being ousted.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194
    theProle said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    The second biggest problem is that to change the views of this group Sunak would require policies that would cause millions of centre right voters to either vote for someone else or at least sit on their hands. He tried to court them with Braverman and it seriously undermined him and the party.

    With Hunt and Cameron on board he won’t do that again. He is going to steer more towards the centre ground and try to wrestle some of those more numerous voters off Starmer. But a lot of damage has been done and he has too little time to repair it.

    When we look at poll shares the big 2 of Con and Lab are at around 70% (Scotlind is different of course) so there is a big chunk of the electorate who choose a third party that is not going to form a government or opposition and may well struggle to gain any seats. Reform is only one of several, and the motivations of these voters a rather neglected topic.

    I see Reform poll slightly worse in Scotland, but still around 5%. I wonder what is going on in their thinking.

    It may be because the media very largely ignore them but I frankly have no idea what Tice and his cohort really want.

    Their current headline is that they want net zero immigration. Its a nice play on words but it is not a serious policy when we still have a million vacancies and find it much easier to increase employment than increase investment and productivity. The hard work in reducing immigration is improving our skills base, the value added in our schools and further education and changing the ratio between more labour and more investment. The small steps Hunt took with capital allowances are welcome and in the long run may reduce immigration by much more than the Rwanda nonsense ever will.

    To me, and all parties do this to varying degrees, they describe a world that they would like to live in rather than address the issues in this one. But then I am not their target audience.
    I'm going to disagree. If we pretty much stopped issuing work visas tomorrow, the market would sort it out. Wages in certain sectors would rise, there would be some bumps along the road (remember a couple of years back when you couldn't get a lorry driver for love or money), we'd stop doing some unproductive or marginally productive things, but ultimately the market would ensure that the things which we actually value would get done.

    The big win that would help would be to try and get rid of all the pointless make-work jobs which tied people up in unproductive employment (in both the public and private sectors). If we deregulated so that companies didn't need huge HR departments mostly dedicated to ensuring that people can't sue them, if we sacked every single person in the public sector with diversity in their job title (not a single one of whom will have ever created a single penny of value), if we were to remove the requirements for firms of consultants to write environmental impact assessments running to hundreds of pages for every planning application, and then teams of planning officers to read said statement etc. etc. etc, then there would be quite a large pool of people released to go and do productive employment like caring for the old.
    Sounds like you are a lot more in their target range than I am. Saying the market will sort it out may be true in the longer term but you are talking a short term recession and serious disruption of services such as care and health. I am not willing to pay that price but I would support policies that meant that the demand for additional labour was somewhat reduced over time. Indeed I would say such policies are essential if we are to maintain, let alone improve, our standard of living.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,319

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
    It is fairly obvious where this is going, but I see no way to stop it. Humans are the new lemmings.
    There are fairly basic reasons why LLMs won’t lead to AGI.

    That will require a different approach.

    Properly used, LLMs can boost producivity enormously.

    My prediction is that they will be used to increase the size of the telephone directory sized reports that no-one reads.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    Yet the result is that Altman and friends are still there, and the board got fired by the shareholders.
    The tweeter actually gets it wrong. Allegedly QStar can break crypto that should take 37 trillion billion shaggillion years

    The whole YT is absolutely worth watching. If it is right this model has cracked maths, and codes, and games, and is recursively self improving - it is meta cognitive - self aware of its own thoughts. Combine that with GPT4 or 5 and you surely have AGI; not only that, if it can really self improve then we could be moments from ASI

    Brace
    ...and on BBC2 now Leon discussed the challenges of AI in a non-secular society with Bernard Levin, followed by the Galloping Gourmet who is preparing Jack Russell burgers for the barbeque.
  • Options
    .

    Morning! A good thread:
    Why are REFUK voters unsympathetic to Sunak? Cos he's brown.
    Will REFUK voters go home to the Tories? Nope.

    The interesting thing about UKIXPFUK is the journey that so many of its voters have been on. Many were the "bigoted woman" strain of the left who wandered towards Farage and are still there. Others the shire bigots who dislike anyone who isn't exactly like them.

    In 2019 we saw the Tories win a majority of 80. There are many seats at least in the NE where the UKIXPFUK vote was bigger than the Tory majority. They didn't go home to the Tories then - and that Tory party offered (at least on paper) what they want). Why would they vote Tory this time when it is the opposite of what they want?

    Partly his skin colour, but also everything about him screams "globetrotting citizen of nowhere".

    To an extent, that was true of Boris (born in NY, son of an MEP). But he covered it up with bluster. And of Braverman (studied at the Sorbonne, but I don't want to look inside her head) and Badenoch, though their life stories haven't really been poked into because they're not important enough yet.

    But Rishi couldn't pull off "stout patriot" even if he tried. Which he doesn't.

    Part of 2016-9 was a revolt against the metropolitan elites. Unfortunately, it was a revolt led by a different elite, many of them pining for a bigger stage than a mere metropolis. And I'm not sure it's a better one.
    It is his wealth not his skin colour that comes up in the focus groups.

    FWIW - Labour will absolutely hammer that point if inheritance tax is cut.

    'Sunak has just decided to give his family a £300 million tax cut' will be the Labour attack line.
    Wealth is a massive issue. But we can't deny the petty bigotry which still infests some communities. You can deny racism if you like, but having lived there and canvassed votes there I know its racism. Some are quite open about it. Like Mrs Duffy.
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The biggest problem for the Tories with this group is one we have discussed before. Starmer doesn’t scare them, in fact they see Starmer as much of the same.

    If the consequence of them telling the Tories what they really think was someone like Corbyn many would hold their nose and vote Tory to stop him. They will not do that for Starmer so the Tories are more likely to bleed votes to the right than in 2019 or 2017.

    Yet more bad news for Sunak I’m afraid.

    But also, Boris did tell them what they thought. There would be milk, honey and no need to share it with others. It was tosh then as it is now, but BoJo had the verve to carry it off.

    Sunak is turning out to be just as dishonest. However, when push comes to shove, his vision is more "a land safe for hedge fund squillionaires" and (more importantly) he's not capable of styling it out.

    If the political benefit of charisma is to be able to lie more effectively, Sunak's lack of charisma is probably for the best.
    Boris was able to get them on board because he channeled their anger at the undemocratic twats in the remainer Parliament who were determined to overturn the outcome of the referendum. He was never far right , indeed he has always been at the wetter end of the party but the end of his Love Actually advert summed up his campaign: “ enough, enough let’s get this done “.

    Sunak doesn’t have such a weapon. His attempt to make the boat people a similar target has blown up in his face. These people are lost to him.
    Up to a point, though the Conservatives who spat out the May plan as Not A Proper Brexit (figurehead: Alex de Pfeffel) played a big part there as well.

    And then there were the indicative votes, which were canned just as they were getting somewhere. Two rounds was never going to be enough for a deliberative process like that- think how long Papal conclaves take.
    In my lifetime most Papal conclaves have taken a few days. The remainer Parliament deliberately wasted 2 years. They had no intention of ever finding a way forward.
    The ‘Remainer Parliament’ was full of MPs who could see how bad Brexit would be for their constituents. And they’ve been proved to be entirely correct. History will judge them kindly.

    There’s much wailing and gnashing of teeth this week about the problems with the British economy, yet not much mention of the B-word. The self-imposed omertà continues despite the country knowing Brexit has failed for the bulk of businesses and people in this country. But not the elites who funded and lied for it. They’re happy. And their media remains silent.

    The biggest boost the British economy could have is getting back into the Single Market. Something, you’ll remember many prominent Leavers saying, we would never be stupid enough to leave. A lie, of course. Once the right were given their head it was always going to happen.

    Because no trade deals have become anywhere near to mitigating the damage Brexit has done. The OBR now says joining the CPTPP will boost the economy 0.04% over the next 15 years.

    Brexit was supposed to heal the Tories. That’s failed. It was supposed to lower immigration. That’s failed.
    It was supposed to improve our economy. That’s failed. It was supposed to help the NHS. That’s failed. What was the point of all the division and the harm we have done to ourselves?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Dog


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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,194

    .

    Morning! A good thread:
    Why are REFUK voters unsympathetic to Sunak? Cos he's brown.
    Will REFUK voters go home to the Tories? Nope.

    The interesting thing about UKIXPFUK is the journey that so many of its voters have been on. Many were the "bigoted woman" strain of the left who wandered towards Farage and are still there. Others the shire bigots who dislike anyone who isn't exactly like them.

    In 2019 we saw the Tories win a majority of 80. There are many seats at least in the NE where the UKIXPFUK vote was bigger than the Tory majority. They didn't go home to the Tories then - and that Tory party offered (at least on paper) what they want). Why would they vote Tory this time when it is the opposite of what they want?

    Partly his skin colour, but also everything about him screams "globetrotting citizen of nowhere".

    To an extent, that was true of Boris (born in NY, son of an MEP). But he covered it up with bluster. And of Braverman (studied at the Sorbonne, but I don't want to look inside her head) and Badenoch, though their life stories haven't really been poked into because they're not important enough yet.

    But Rishi couldn't pull off "stout patriot" even if he tried. Which he doesn't.

    Part of 2016-9 was a revolt against the metropolitan elites. Unfortunately, it was a revolt led by a different elite, many of them pining for a bigger stage than a mere metropolis. And I'm not sure it's a better one.
    It is his wealth not his skin colour that comes up in the focus groups.

    FWIW - Labour will absolutely hammer that point if inheritance tax is cut.

    'Sunak has just decided to give his family a £300 million tax cut' will be the Labour attack line.
    Wealth is a massive issue. But we can't deny the petty bigotry which still infests some communities. You can deny racism if you like, but having lived there and canvassed votes there I know its racism. Some are quite open about it. Like Mrs Duffy.
    I am not even sure it is directly the wealth, we have had rich PMs before. I think it is more that he looks and sounds like he would be happier in California than here. The green card nonsense hurt him a lot and he still clearly has a potential base there as his holidays and his job interviews at the recent AI conference showed. I think people have reservations of just how committed to this country he is. Will he still be living here in 5 Years? I would say odds against. That hurts.
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    I’ve always assumed that the RefUK vote would return home at the GE. But now I’m not so sure. I know the RefUK organiser in the adjoining constituency from the local pub and the sense I get is that they are as angry with the Tories as they are Labour. Don’t really understand that anger, tbh, but it’s definitely there.

    Immigration is 1.2 million* and you don't understand why they are angry?

    *Yes, this is the gross, not the net, figure but it was the £350m gross figure that went on the side of the bus.
    We could reduce it by about 40% by stopping overseas students*. It would also change our balance of payments deficit from a typical £70bn a year to well over £100bn a year, which in turn impacts the governments cost of borrowing too. In favour?

    * We could of course reduce it by about 40% by redefining it to exclude students until and unless they apply for a work visa to stay on as many other countries do.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited November 2023
    Matthew Parris has written two articles recently that ask if many of the people currently claiming benefit because of mental health problems would be better off if they were at work.

    Flood of mental health diagnoses isn’t working

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5f9a2679-6c36-4075-a1a7-ab87f3691488?shareToken=ae3b69ceaf8301256802f78509de79b8

    Mental health crisis may not be all it seems

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/77449e0e-32f2-11ee-b04c-88a034803f06?shareToken=1090069b15391cd2b0e4bc5590a60227

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    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
    It is fairly obvious where this is going, but I see no way to stop it. Humans are the new lemmings.
    There are fairly basic reasons why LLMs won’t lead to AGI.

    That will require a different approach.

    Properly used, LLMs can boost producivity enormously.

    My prediction is that they will be used to increase the size of the telephone directory sized reports that no-one reads.
    Ah, but LLMs can also be used to summarise the telephone directory (whatever that is, grandad!) that no-one reads. You can try it now with Bing/ChatGPT.
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    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
    It is fairly obvious where this is going, but I see no way to stop it. Humans are the new lemmings.
    I think eventually we'll all have our personal daemon, perhaps a chip. Our guardian angel.
    Why would the AI not just get rid of us?
    Most of us don't get rid of our dogs, though admittedly some of us do eat them. @Leon
    Why is the human:AI relationship equivalent to dogs:humans?

    AI is unlikely to have similar emotional needs as humans, and humans certainly dont offer blind obedience and attention to an owner (excluding Trumpists of course).

    I suspect the relationship will be more one where humans are initially a threat, then a waste of resources, then just waste.
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    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    ALLEGEDLY, this is one main reason OpenAI went into meltdown

    “So this is what caused the open ai board to freak out.

    The found a new model that could lead to AGI

    One that used new maths to break encryption that would’ve taken 37 years to crack.

    YT link below”

    https://x.com/gritcult/status/1728564126836781477?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Inter alia, this could destroy crypto/bitcoin overnight

    However, approach with caution, several expert voices say this is bullshit

    I've heard that it could do simple maths not crack encryption. Doing simple maths for a generative LLM is quite remarkable.



    From "The Rundown AI" newsletter/
    It is fairly obvious where this is going, but I see no way to stop it. Humans are the new lemmings.
    There are fairly basic reasons why LLMs won’t lead to AGI.

    That will require a different approach.

    Properly used, LLMs can boost producivity enormously.

    My prediction is that they will be used to increase the size of the telephone directory sized reports that no-one reads.
    Why would it stop with LLMs? The incentives for us to build ever greater computational power are hard wired into our society, and at some point it will go bad. Hopefully for me, when I am long gone but for humans as a whole I think we can see how we end up now.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,614
    @Benpointer Did you do anything with your Medlars. I made medlar jelly for the first time which is gorgeous and looks lovely. A clear orange/pink jelly. It took a 2nd boil to get it to set. I also made medlar cheese, but I am really struggling to get that to set. I also froze a lot for future use in tarts. Looking forward to eating it with cheese. Strong flavour of dates.

    Re training the dog to find the kibble under a cup (the interest in which I am finding surprising), he has now cracked it, but only if I move the cups very slowly. It is amusing watching the concentration on his face as the cups are moved and it is very sweet when he taps the cup with his paw, to tell me to lift it so he can get the treat.
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