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What will Reform voters do at the general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NEW THREAD

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Dom Cummings retweeted this


    “US (+barking UK) will fight RUS to the last Ukrainian.

    That includes Ukrainian women?

    Videos already show trenches defended by UKR women soldiers?

    Early in war UKR boasted a "million man" army.

    >>100k casualties in order for them to resort to conscripting women now?

    🤔🎈🐒”

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1728111711075344793?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    He agrees with me. It is time for this war to end, and for us to advise Ukraine that sacrificing another 200,000 young people. - this time often women - is just a really really bad idea. Sure, they can do it, but it’s not going to get them very far. Sadly

    “Fighting to the last Ukrainian” is one of the most dishonest expressions that Putin’s shills, like Cummings, Hitchens and Douglas Macgegor come up with.

    It’s concern-trolling.
    Explain to me how Ukraine can realistically win, from here

    Otherwise your remarks are just bloviating belligerence from the safety of the UK. It’s not your compatriots dying in their thousands, for nothing
    In 1970, tell the Vietnamese how they could beat the might of the USA.

    And Ukraine stands a much greater chance of beating Russia than Vietnam did the USA. Likewise, Russia and Afghanistan in the 1980s.

    You can either beat them militarily, or it can become too expensive for Russia to continue. Both are possible for Ukraine, albeit difficult in various ways.

    Now, Russia thinks they can 'win' by breaking the west's will to support Ukraine. I fear there are many 'commentators' who are fully on board with this aim.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Dom Cummings retweeted this


    “US (+barking UK) will fight RUS to the last Ukrainian.

    That includes Ukrainian women?

    Videos already show trenches defended by UKR women soldiers?

    Early in war UKR boasted a "million man" army.

    >>100k casualties in order for them to resort to conscripting women now?

    🤔🎈🐒”

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1728111711075344793?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    He agrees with me. It is time for this war to end, and for us to advise Ukraine that sacrificing another 200,000 young people. - this time often women - is just a really really bad idea. Sure, they can do it, but it’s not going to get them very far. Sadly

    “Fighting to the last Ukrainian” is one of the most dishonest expressions that Putin’s shills, like Cummings, Hitchens and Douglas Macgegor come up with.

    It’s concern-trolling.
    Exactly. It also takes away all Ukrainian agency, as if they are children who we in the west send out to battle like innocents to the slaughter.

    Reality is, as ever, more complicated. The Ukrainians chose to fight & have continued to make that choice in the face of Russian attacks. And having seen what the Russians did in the regions of Ukraine they briefly held, who could blame them? The Russians came into Ukraine with extensive kill lists & planned to eliminate the flower of the Ukranian population so they could grab it’s resources to shore up the parlous Russian state.

    The idea that they should meekly submit to Russian aggression so that we in the west can sleep soundly in our beds seems profoundly insulting to me. Who are we to assert that we should make that choice on their behalf?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,263
    DavidL said:

    What's so remarkable about women being in the front line? A lot of the front line these days is flying drones. Much of the rest is driving around artillery which is self loading. These don't require physical strength, I don't see any obvious male advantage.

    OTOH the last few days have seen the heaviest attacks on Kyiv for the entire year. The theory that Russia is running out of rockets or logistics looks ever more tattered. It is just not happening. The Ukrainians are fortunate that the Russians have thrown away so much at Avdiivka. If they had not they may well have been finishing this year the stronger of the two. As it is they both look pretty punch drunk.

    Because women are wombs. More precious than men. A man can fertilise a hundred women but it doesn’t work the other way

    This is one evolutionary reason men have always been the fighters and why it’s always a bad sign if you’re using women in trenches
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,263
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Dom Cummings retweeted this


    “US (+barking UK) will fight RUS to the last Ukrainian.

    That includes Ukrainian women?

    Videos already show trenches defended by UKR women soldiers?

    Early in war UKR boasted a "million man" army.

    >>100k casualties in order for them to resort to conscripting women now?

    🤔🎈🐒”

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1728111711075344793?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    He agrees with me. It is time for this war to end, and for us to advise Ukraine that sacrificing another 200,000 young people. - this time often women - is just a really really bad idea. Sure, they can do it, but it’s not going to get them very far. Sadly

    “Fighting to the last Ukrainian” is one of the most dishonest expressions that Putin’s shills, like Cummings, Hitchens and Douglas Macgegor come up with.

    It’s concern-trolling.
    Explain to me how Ukraine can realistically win, from here

    Otherwise your remarks are just bloviating belligerence from the safety of the UK. It’s not your compatriots dying in their thousands, for nothing
    I’m not running their military campaign.

    Explain how Ukraine can achieve peace with a power that has shown no desire for peace, other than to surrender at discretion.

    You may think Ukrainians are wiser to surrender at discretion, than to fight, but that is their decision to make, not yours.
    As I thought
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806

    Net so far movement in the Labour lead in the 4 polls with fieldwork starting on the day of the Autumn Statement or later, compared to the previous pre-Autumn Statement poll from the same company:
    -4
    +1
    +3
    -2

    i.e. minimal change

    Give it time....
    It’s the hopium that kills…
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,413
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Dom Cummings retweeted this


    “US (+barking UK) will fight RUS to the last Ukrainian.

    That includes Ukrainian women?

    Videos already show trenches defended by UKR women soldiers?

    Early in war UKR boasted a "million man" army.

    >>100k casualties in order for them to resort to conscripting women now?

    🤔🎈🐒”

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1728111711075344793?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    He agrees with me. It is time for this war to end, and for us to advise Ukraine that sacrificing another 200,000 young people. - this time often women - is just a really really bad idea. Sure, they can do it, but it’s not going to get them very far. Sadly

    “Fighting to the last Ukrainian” is one of the most dishonest expressions that Putin’s shills, like Cummings, Hitchens and Douglas Macgegor come up with.

    It’s concern-trolling.
    Explain to me how Ukraine can realistically win, from here

    Otherwise your remarks are just bloviating belligerence from the safety of the UK. It’s not your compatriots dying in their thousands, for nothing
    I’m not running their military campaign.

    Explain how Ukraine can achieve peace with a power that has shown no desire for peace, other than to surrender at discretion.

    You may think Ukrainians are wiser to surrender at discretion, than to fight, but that is their decision to make, not yours.
    As I thought
    I don't know who Douglas MacGregor is, but I know of Peter Hitchens, and I don't think that either he, or Cummings can be accused of "shilling" for Russia, or "concern trolling", as these are paid activities. Hitchens and Cummings have Russian sympathies, which you may find misguided, but that's different.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Dom Cummings retweeted this


    “US (+barking UK) will fight RUS to the last Ukrainian.

    That includes Ukrainian women?

    Videos already show trenches defended by UKR women soldiers?

    Early in war UKR boasted a "million man" army.

    >>100k casualties in order for them to resort to conscripting women now?

    🤔🎈🐒”

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1728111711075344793?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    He agrees with me. It is time for this war to end, and for us to advise Ukraine that sacrificing another 200,000 young people. - this time often women - is just a really really bad idea. Sure, they can do it, but it’s not going to get them very far. Sadly

    Dom Cummings Russian years have never been adequately explained have they?
    Oh FFS

    Even a blinkered silly person like you can see the war is going badly for Ukraine. Worse, there is now no realistic route to victory. It’s tragic, I wish they’d won, I wish Putin had fallen, but it hasn’t turned out that way

    An armistice now would save 100,000s of lives on both sides

    I get the opinion of people like @rcs1000 who think we must support Ukraine as long as they want to fight, but perhaps - also - a candid friend and ally can advise when discretion is the better part of valour
    If the war is going badly for Ukraine, then it is going disastrously for Russia. Something, for whatever reason, you seem to ignore. Fiscally, militarily, and reputationally; Russia is a diminished state. Putin has squandered two decades of plenty on an iniquitous vanity project.
    Exactly, but Leon can’t get away from the basic tumescence he gets every time he perceives a ‘strong’ nationalist leader.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    What's so remarkable about women being in the front line? A lot of the front line these days is flying drones. Much of the rest is driving around artillery which is self loading. These don't require physical strength, I don't see any obvious male advantage.

    OTOH the last few days have seen the heaviest attacks on Kyiv for the entire year. The theory that Russia is running out of rockets or logistics looks ever more tattered. It is just not happening. The Ukrainians are fortunate that the Russians have thrown away so much at Avdiivka. If they had not they may well have been finishing this year the stronger of the two. As it is they both look pretty punch drunk.

    Because women are wombs. More precious than men. A man can fertilise a hundred women but it doesn’t work the other way

    This is one evolutionary reason men have always been the fighters and why it’s always a bad sign if you’re using women in trenches
    Women are wombs….. Good old Gilead….
  • Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    What's so remarkable about women being in the front line? A lot of the front line these days is flying drones. Much of the rest is driving around artillery which is self loading. These don't require physical strength, I don't see any obvious male advantage.

    OTOH the last few days have seen the heaviest attacks on Kyiv for the entire year. The theory that Russia is running out of rockets or logistics looks ever more tattered. It is just not happening. The Ukrainians are fortunate that the Russians have thrown away so much at Avdiivka. If they had not they may well have been finishing this year the stronger of the two. As it is they both look pretty punch drunk.

    Because women are wombs. More precious than men. A man can fertilise a hundred women but it doesn’t work the other way

    This is one evolutionary reason men have always been the fighters and why it’s always a bad sign if you’re using women in trenches
    Women are wombs….. Good old Gilead….
    And men are dicks..
This discussion has been closed.