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Can Hunt turn Tory fortunes around? – politicalbetting.com

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  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    I'm hoping your son isn't called Dave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited November 2023
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home, even with multi-GPU setup. I highly doubt he has racks of A100/H100s in there, the things you could use via the cloud.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Give it a few years and with fiscial drag anybody on much more than minimum wage will be on 40% tax rate....

    ... as well as everyone who is on State Pension.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,413
    Sandpit said:

    Even friendly newspapers not 100% friendly.

    If the overall affect is to raise the tax burden, those Tory MPs who signed the pledge not to increase it will need to vote down the statement. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12577115/Senior-Tories-pledge-not-support-new-tax-hikes-raised-Jeremy-Hunts-upcoming-Autumn-statement.html
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580
    edited November 2023

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home.
    He's responsible. He's signed the letter with about 1000 AI experts pointing out the danger and asking for safeguards. I think he knows what he's doing. He's probably more responsible than Altman.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited November 2023
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home.
    He's responsible. He's signed the letter with about 1000 AI experts pointing out the danger and asking for safeguards. I think he knows what he's doing.
    Oh no he has absolutely lost my respect now then. And of course these open letters mean squat.

    Nobody training ML model of any size need or should do them from home.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580
    edited November 2023

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home, even with multi-GPU setup. I highly doubt he has racks of A100/H100s in there, the things you could use via the cloud.
    He has
  • theakestheakes Posts: 930
    Apparently word going round Westminster is of a Spring election, based on the January cut in National Insurance. As if that is going to change anything.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited November 2023
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home, even with multi-GPU setup. I highly doubt he has racks of A100/H100s in there, the things you could use via the cloud.
    He has
    Racks of H100s, at $40k per card. If you can actually buy them, because all the biggest corporations in the world eat up all the supply. Pull the other one.

    And if he has $500k of graphics cards in his bedroom, and managing the power / heat on those, the power draw is enormous, a single H100 pulls 700Ws, the lights be dimming etc....he is a plonker.

    I think you want to tell me he as a multiple 3090 / 4090s in a rack.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580
    edited November 2023

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home, even with multi-GPU setup. I highly doubt he has racks of A100/H100s in there, the things you could use via the cloud.
    He has
    Rackets of H100s, at $40k per card. Pull the other one.
    I'm under a NDA. I've already said too much.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,805
    theakes said:

    Apparently word going round Westminster is of a Spring election, based on the January cut in National Insurance. As if that is going to change anything.

    Some of us made a comment about this the moment he mentioned the change was coming in January.

    *buffs nails*
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,805

    Good afternoon

    Pensions up 8.5% - benefits up 6.7% - help for self employed - beer duty frozen - 2% NI cut for most workers - near 10% rise in living wage - business incentives - business investments

    All this and I thought we had no money

    And frankly I doubt it will change much but if things are looking up it is good news for labour if they win GE24

    But, Big G, its all getting paid for by fiscal drag. Essentially, inflation cost the government quite a lot of money both directly through higher wages and other costs and indirectly through bond rate rises. And we are all getting to pay for it. The Autumn statement is no more than a clever misdirection trick whilst our pockets are picked. The tax burden continues to increase.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,070
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    How we will ever tackle productivity issue?

    It would help if we had more spending on capital equipment and infrastructure, so that people can be more productive at work.

    (Checks government plans.)

    Bugger.
    Full expensing was made permanent. That is a huge mover of the productivity needle. Also, raising the minimum wage will force companies to invest in capital rather than load up on people. You're point may have landed without these two items but they are pretty central to today's announcement.
    But if we really wanted growth he could have gone even further. 150% relief on capital spending and qualifying training would have greatly incentivised the investment we desperately need to address our productivity issues.
    Again, productivity is about to be totally transformed by AI. We are on the verge if a new Industrial Revolution. People talk on here like this isn’t happening - it is
    Is that not what has been said on the previous six similar occasions?
    No. We have never had anything like this

    The nearest equivalent is the advent of the internet, this - I think - will be bigger
    Can you explain why? I think what we are seeing is going to be a useful tool in lots of places, but you frame it as something much more than that. What is it that makes you think that?

    I should say I think what we have seen is lightyears away from AGI (whatever than really means).
    This is going to be a spiritual challenge, way more than an economic, industrial, political and social challenge (tho it will be those, too). We are about to create an alien and unknowable intelligence superior to our own
    We have been doing that for hundreds of thousands of years. They are called "babies". We can't control them either... :(
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,070
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jimmy Carr (being serious) on charm vs charisma, as shown by Obama & Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8_ulI_UlrFI

    Carr being himself it actually very interesting. He doesn't do many interviews in which he leaves the comedic act at the door.
    He’s on tour in the US at the moment, and doing loads of podcasts. The guy is a genuine comedy historian, and has loads of references of US and UK comedy from half a century ago.
    I should hope so.

    The guy is 51 himself.
    Jimmy Carr is the spiritual successor to Bob Monkhouse. Discuss.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited November 2023

    Give it a few years and with fiscial drag anybody on much more than minimum wage will be on 40% tax rate....

    ... as well as everyone who is on State Pension.
    Just checked, saddo that I am.

    It would take exactly 30 years to 2053 for the standard State Retirement Pension (SRP) of £10,600 pa to reach £50,271 and therefore the 40% tax band, if the current thresholds are frozen and SRP increased at the rates it has for the past 5 years.

    I think that's a very important point and well worth the 10 mins I've spent on it. Definitely.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,070

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    I *think* because he wants to own it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home, even with multi-GPU setup. I highly doubt he has racks of A100/H100s in there, the things you could use via the cloud.
    He has
    Racks of H100s, at $40k per card. If you can actually buy them, because all the biggest corporations in the world eat up all the supply. Pull the other one.

    And if he has $500k of graphics cards in his bedroom, and managing the power / heat on those, the power draw is enormous, a single H100 pulls 700Ws, the lights be dimming etc....he is a plonker.

    I think you want to tell me he as a multiple 3090 / 4090s in a rack.
    You also need a fairly custom connection for that to supply enough power and water for cooling. I've seen some impressive etherium mining rigs in the past but nothing significantly decent for home ML training. Anyone who's not training in the cloud is doing it wrong at least at a small scale. If you're a bigger outfit then a 200-300 H100 cluster will be necessary or renting time on that size of cluster. I also like the look of the waferscale chips, I think the 3rd gen from that will be wipe the floor with everyone else but it will be extremely expensive, maybe $300-400k per chip given defect rates on TSMCs 4nm process.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,138

    Sounds open minded...

    Ahead of the Autumn Statement I'd been to meet three mums on low incomes who told me uprating benefits in line with inflation should be one of the chancellor’s priorities.

    They've now messaged me their reactions to what they heard in the speech.

    Jo Baker Marsh is a lone parent of a 14-year-old son with additional needs who says the statement was "exactly what I feared".

    "We are led to believe that the cuts in National Insurance, the uprating of Universal Credit etc are benefiting us, they aren’t, they are preparing for support for their party in the next general election," she says.

    So you got what you were asking for, but its exactly what you feared ....scratches head...amazing how this random mum is actually a Guardian contributor & a campaginer. Small world.

    BBC perchance?
    Yes - BBC, and a campaigner. Your observation is fair.

    But hardly a normal Groan Contributor - has written *one* article as an example of a person in a mass observation project about living in poverty.
  • DavidL said:

    Good afternoon

    Pensions up 8.5% - benefits up 6.7% - help for self employed - beer duty frozen - 2% NI cut for most workers - near 10% rise in living wage - business incentives - business investments

    All this and I thought we had no money

    And frankly I doubt it will change much but if things are looking up it is good news for labour if they win GE24

    But, Big G, its all getting paid for by fiscal drag. Essentially, inflation cost the government quite a lot of money both directly through higher wages and other costs and indirectly through bond rate rises. And we are all getting to pay for it. The Autumn statement is no more than a clever misdirection trick whilst our pockets are picked. The tax burden continues to increase.
    Isn't the central mechanism worse than that?

    Inflation has increased government income more than expected but spending is meant to stay tied to the earlier projection. Which seems unlikely, given all the extra inflation in the economy.

    And there's nothing for Team Truss to vote against; the tax increases are already in law. If people were still giving the government any benefit of the doubt, they might have got away with it.

    But there's no Benefit of the Doubt left.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited November 2023
    MaxPB said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home, even with multi-GPU setup. I highly doubt he has racks of A100/H100s in there, the things you could use via the cloud.
    He has
    Racks of H100s, at $40k per card. If you can actually buy them, because all the biggest corporations in the world eat up all the supply. Pull the other one.

    And if he has $500k of graphics cards in his bedroom, and managing the power / heat on those, the power draw is enormous, a single H100 pulls 700Ws, the lights be dimming etc....he is a plonker.

    I think you want to tell me he as a multiple 3090 / 4090s in a rack.
    You also need a fairly custom connection for that to supply enough power and water for cooling. I've seen some impressive etherium mining rigs in the past but nothing significantly decent for home ML training. Anyone who's not training in the cloud is doing it wrong at least at a small scale. If you're a bigger outfit then a 200-300 H100 cluster will be necessary or renting time on that size of cluster. I also like the look of the waferscale chips, I think the 3rd gen from that will be wipe the floor with everyone else but it will be extremely expensive, maybe $300-400k per chip given defect rates on TSMCs 4nm process.
    Yes, we had a right pain in the ass when we setup a compute cluster for doing some things internally. And no it isn't in my bedroom....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    Zero here - it would have taken more than £10 to tempt me to risk Covid, unvaccinated, in August 2020.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    https://twitter.com/amcarmichaelMP/status/1727015322170134956

    "The government has just pushed through a new regulation on election spending. At a single stroke it almost doubles the permitted spending in UK elections - with no debate, scrutiny or vote in Parliament."

    Which party benefits from increased spending limits?
  • https://twitter.com/amcarmichaelMP/status/1727015322170134956

    "The government has just pushed through a new regulation on election spending. At a single stroke it almost doubles the permitted spending in UK elections - with no debate, scrutiny or vote in Parliament."

    Which party benefits from increased spending limits?

    I thought the Tories were struggling to get money in these days?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited November 2023
    IFS - “It’s not accurate to say that debt is falling. Public sector debt is currently rising in cash terms, real terms, and (most importantly) as a per cent of national income.”
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    "The XL Bully fightback: Astonishing video shows owners and 62 dogs at huge meet-up as they bring their children in bid to prove animals facing a ban are 'safe'"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12779455/american-bully-xl-dog-ban-protest-owners-meet-coventry.html
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    Give it a few years and with fiscial drag anybody on much more than minimum wage will be on 40% tax rate....

    ... as well as everyone who is on State Pension.
    Just checked, saddo that I am.

    It would take exactly 30 years to 2053 for the standard State Retirement Pension (SRP) of £10,600 pa to reach £50,271 and therefore the 40% tax band, if the current thresholds are frozen and SRP increased at the rates it has for the past 5 years.

    I think that's a very important point and well worth the 10 mins I've spent on it. Definitely.
    In 2053 I'll be 86. So I'll be happy to still be around to pay the extra tax.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    DavidL said:

    theakes said:

    Apparently word going round Westminster is of a Spring election, based on the January cut in National Insurance. As if that is going to change anything.

    Some of us made a comment about this the moment he mentioned the change was coming in January.

    *buffs nails*
    TBH would be nice to get back to May elections. it just feels 'right' A nice day, pop in and vote after work in the evening light, settle down at 9.55 for the exit poll and then enjoy...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    MaxPB said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home, even with multi-GPU setup. I highly doubt he has racks of A100/H100s in there, the things you could use via the cloud.
    He has
    Racks of H100s, at $40k per card. If you can actually buy them, because all the biggest corporations in the world eat up all the supply. Pull the other one.

    And if he has $500k of graphics cards in his bedroom, and managing the power / heat on those, the power draw is enormous, a single H100 pulls 700Ws, the lights be dimming etc....he is a plonker.

    I think you want to tell me he as a multiple 3090 / 4090s in a rack.
    You also need a fairly custom connection for that to supply enough power and water for cooling. I've seen some impressive etherium mining rigs in the past but nothing significantly decent for home ML training. Anyone who's not training in the cloud is doing it wrong at least at a small scale. If you're a bigger outfit then a 200-300 H100 cluster will be necessary or renting time on that size of cluster. I also like the look of the waferscale chips, I think the 3rd gen from that will be wipe the floor with everyone else but it will be extremely expensive, maybe $300-400k per chip given defect rates on TSMCs 4nm process.
    Yes, we had a right pain in the ass when we setup a compute cluster for doing some things internally. And no it isn't in my bedroom....
    There's a pretty long waitlist right now for new power and water connections in and around London. For all the talk from the government about supporting AI a simple gain would be unblocking that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,805

    DavidL said:

    Good afternoon

    Pensions up 8.5% - benefits up 6.7% - help for self employed - beer duty frozen - 2% NI cut for most workers - near 10% rise in living wage - business incentives - business investments

    All this and I thought we had no money

    And frankly I doubt it will change much but if things are looking up it is good news for labour if they win GE24

    But, Big G, its all getting paid for by fiscal drag. Essentially, inflation cost the government quite a lot of money both directly through higher wages and other costs and indirectly through bond rate rises. And we are all getting to pay for it. The Autumn statement is no more than a clever misdirection trick whilst our pockets are picked. The tax burden continues to increase.
    Isn't the central mechanism worse than that?

    Inflation has increased government income more than expected but spending is meant to stay tied to the earlier projection. Which seems unlikely, given all the extra inflation in the economy.

    And there's nothing for Team Truss to vote against; the tax increases are already in law. If people were still giving the government any benefit of the doubt, they might have got away with it.

    But there's no Benefit of the Doubt left.
    Our financial situation is so chronic that there is an unending list of things on which this "headroom" might have been spent. Buying peace in both the classroom and the hospital ward would have been high on my list.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home, even with multi-GPU setup. I highly doubt he has racks of A100/H100s in there, the things you could use via the cloud.
    He has
    Rackets of H100s, at $40k per card. Pull the other one.
    I'm under a NDA. I've already said too much.
    How is it being @Leon's Dad ?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    DavidL said:

    Good afternoon

    Pensions up 8.5% - benefits up 6.7% - help for self employed - beer duty frozen - 2% NI cut for most workers - near 10% rise in living wage - business incentives - business investments

    All this and I thought we had no money

    And frankly I doubt it will change much but if things are looking up it is good news for labour if they win GE24

    But, Big G, its all getting paid for by fiscal drag. Essentially, inflation cost the government quite a lot of money both directly through higher wages and other costs and indirectly through bond rate rises. And we are all getting to pay for it. The Autumn statement is no more than a clever misdirection trick whilst our pockets are picked. The tax burden continues to increase.
    How many people realise that as their pay rises the proportion they hand over in tax rises? Not increasing thresholds is the easiest way to increase the tax take without upsetting folk.

    As for beer duty, when it is £3 a pint in Spoons and £6 a pint for some "craft" in a poncy place, the duty is irrelevant.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,805
    edited November 2023

    IFS - “It’s not accurate to say that debt is falling. Public sector debt is currently rising in cash terms, real terms, and (most importantly) as a per cent of national income.”

    In fairness I don't think that is what Hunt said. He said it was going to fall as a share of national income over the projected period. And tomorrow I am going to give up chocolate. Honest.
  • https://twitter.com/amcarmichaelMP/status/1727015322170134956

    "The government has just pushed through a new regulation on election spending. At a single stroke it almost doubles the permitted spending in UK elections - with no debate, scrutiny or vote in Parliament."

    Which party benefits from increased spending limits?

    I thought the Tories were struggling to get money in these days?
    Remember the voter ID thing, that probably hurt the Conservatives overall?

    Fortunately for all of us, villainy is sometimes beaten by stupidity.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,805

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    Zero here - it would have taken more than £10 to tempt me to risk Covid, unvaccinated, in August 2020.
    I went to several, particularly the local pub in the village who were really struggling. No ill effects.

    The big figure being bandied around today was £400bn, the amount we spent on Covid. We could have reconquered France for less than that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    DavidL said:

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    Zero here - it would have taken more than £10 to tempt me to risk Covid, unvaccinated, in August 2020.
    I went to several, particularly the local pub in the village who were really struggling. No ill effects.

    The big figure being bandied around today was £400bn, the amount we spent on Covid. We could have reconquered France for less than that.
    It'd be interesting to know how much roughly comparable countries spent; say France, Germany and Italy. Though it might be quite hard to get equivalent figures.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    Can't see that anyone's mentioned a general election in NL taking place today. No-one interested? Gert Wilders in pole position apparently
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited November 2023
    Van-Tam detailed the "extremely hateful" messages that he and his family received during the pandemic - which prompted police to urge them to temporarily leave their home.

    And that was just from Prof Peston....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,805

    DavidL said:

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    Zero here - it would have taken more than £10 to tempt me to risk Covid, unvaccinated, in August 2020.
    I went to several, particularly the local pub in the village who were really struggling. No ill effects.

    The big figure being bandied around today was £400bn, the amount we spent on Covid. We could have reconquered France for less than that.
    It'd be interesting to know how much roughly comparable countries spent; say France, Germany and Italy. Though it might be quite hard to get equivalent figures.
    You'd like to think that at some point the Covid inquiry might drag itself away from tittle tattle for long enough to look at things like that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited November 2023
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    Zero here - it would have taken more than £10 to tempt me to risk Covid, unvaccinated, in August 2020.
    I went to several, particularly the local pub in the village who were really struggling. No ill effects.

    The big figure being bandied around today was £400bn, the amount we spent on Covid. We could have reconquered France for less than that.
    It'd be interesting to know how much roughly comparable countries spent; say France, Germany and Italy. Though it might be quite hard to get equivalent figures.
    You'd like to think that at some point the Covid inquiry might drag itself away from tittle tattle for long enough to look at things like that.
    Checks BBC coverage...no its all about did you fall out with such and such...

    And there is always the same set of questions that gets asked which are leading...did we lockdown too late...Eat out to help out, how many did it kill...is Boris a moron....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,618
    Andy_JS said:

    "The XL Bully fightback: Astonishing video shows owners and 62 dogs at huge meet-up as they bring their children in bid to prove animals facing a ban are 'safe'"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12779455/american-bully-xl-dog-ban-protest-owners-meet-coventry.html

    Coventry must be the Bully XL epicentre.
  • DavidL said:

    IFS - “It’s not accurate to say that debt is falling. Public sector debt is currently rising in cash terms, real terms, and (most importantly) as a per cent of national income.”

    In fairness I don't think that is what Hunt said. He said it was going to fall as a share of national income over the projected period. And tomorrow I am going to give up chocolate. Honest.
    Ahem.

    Wow that's sneaky: the restoration of housing benefit to the 30th percentile is frozen again in 2025/26. So it's a one off bump rather than proper restoration and means its cost falls back again for the fiscal rule year.

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1727362507495600146
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    edited November 2023
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    Zero here - it would have taken more than £10 to tempt me to risk Covid, unvaccinated, in August 2020.
    I went to several, particularly the local pub in the village who were really struggling. No ill effects.

    The big figure being bandied around today was £400bn, the amount we spent on Covid. We could have reconquered France for less than that.
    It'd be interesting to know how much roughly comparable countries spent; say France, Germany and Italy. Though it might be quite hard to get equivalent figures.
    You'd like to think that at some point the Covid inquiry might drag itself away from tittle tattle for long enough to look at things like that.
    This is just the one block of many. I am sure at some point this kind of stuff will be explored.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,138
    I think the changes made by the LHA increase are going to be lumpy by region, but not as lumpy as I thought.

    They are partly catching up with a cash terms freeze since 2019. I make it:

    1 - Increases will be an average of around 13% (regional range 10% to 17%), based on the ONS median rental index (which I am taking as an approx model for changes at 30th percentile level). That compares to CPI increase since 2019 of around 21%, and normal rental surveys showing far higher numbers, which are based on the tiny fraction of the market consisting in new properties advertised so pretty meaningless.

    2 - In more expensive areas those numbers will be capped by overall benefit caps. That probably means in 2-4 regions from 10.

    3 - I don't know whether LHA paid to social sector tenants (who are the large majority of LHA recipients) is set on the same basis, the 30th percentile of private rents in the area for that housing type (1 bed, 2 bed etc) - but I don't see a readily available alternative methodology.


  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    Zero here - it would have taken more than £10 to tempt me to risk Covid, unvaccinated, in August 2020.
    I went to several, particularly the local pub in the village who were really struggling. No ill effects.

    The big figure being bandied around today was £400bn, the amount we spent on Covid. We could have reconquered France for less than that.
    It'd be interesting to know how much roughly comparable countries spent; say France, Germany and Italy. Though it might be quite hard to get equivalent figures.
    You'd like to think that at some point the Covid inquiry might drag itself away from tittle tattle for long enough to look at things like that.
    This is just the one block of many. I am sure at some point this kind of stuff will be explored.
    Are all the eggheads etc going to be appearing again in later blocks?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,886
    edited November 2023

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    Probably a server class machine if it "hums like a jet engine". Servers have powerful fans and no sound-proofing.

    ETA obviously I should have read the following page before bothering to post this.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "The XL Bully fightback: Astonishing video shows owners and 62 dogs at huge meet-up as they bring their children in bid to prove animals facing a ban are 'safe'"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12779455/american-bully-xl-dog-ban-protest-owners-meet-coventry.html

    What could go wrong? Of course XL Bullies are safe, most of the time.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jimmy Carr (being serious) on charm vs charisma, as shown by Obama & Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8_ulI_UlrFI

    Carr being himself it actually very interesting. He doesn't do many interviews in which he leaves the comedic act at the door.
    He’s on tour in the US at the moment, and doing loads of podcasts. The guy is a genuine comedy historian, and has loads of references of US and UK comedy from half a century ago.
    I should hope so.

    The guy is 51 himself.
    Jimmy Carr is the spiritual successor to Bob Monkhouse. Discuss.
    An arse, he could not lace Monkhouse's boots.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Andy_JS said:

    "The XL Bully fightback: Astonishing video shows owners and 62 dogs at huge meet-up as they bring their children in bid to prove animals facing a ban are 'safe'"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12779455/american-bully-xl-dog-ban-protest-owners-meet-coventry.html

    My XL Bully is a big lad and loves children, although he couldn't eat a whole one.
  • malcolmg said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jimmy Carr (being serious) on charm vs charisma, as shown by Obama & Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8_ulI_UlrFI

    Carr being himself it actually very interesting. He doesn't do many interviews in which he leaves the comedic act at the door.
    He’s on tour in the US at the moment, and doing loads of podcasts. The guy is a genuine comedy historian, and has loads of references of US and UK comedy from half a century ago.
    I should hope so.

    The guy is 51 himself.
    Jimmy Carr is the spiritual successor to Bob Monkhouse. Discuss.
    An arse, he could not lace Monkhouse's boots.
    Jimmy Carr is releasing his DVDs onto Youtube, as is Chubby Brown and no doubt other comics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,079
    Sandpit said:

    The chart I'd be most worried about as a Tory MP? The disaster of what's happened to household incomes: 3.5% fall between the last election and the coming one is the largest reduction in real living standards since ONS records began in the 1950s

    image

    https://x.com/TorstenBell/status/1727325043636555924?s=20

    Yep. It’s the economy, stupid.

    (He doesn’t mean the big published statistics, he means are you better off than you were four years ago?)
    Quite - people don't see charts or hear many statistics, but they know when they are feeling the pinch, and services are still crap as default.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,070
    malcolmg said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jimmy Carr (being serious) on charm vs charisma, as shown by Obama & Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8_ulI_UlrFI

    Carr being himself it actually very interesting. He doesn't do many interviews in which he leaves the comedic act at the door.
    He’s on tour in the US at the moment, and doing loads of podcasts. The guy is a genuine comedy historian, and has loads of references of US and UK comedy from half a century ago.
    I should hope so.

    The guy is 51 himself.
    Jimmy Carr is the spiritual successor to Bob Monkhouse. Discuss.
    An arse, he could not lace Monkhouse's boots.
    I understand the point, but they are both emotionally-distant, well-groomed, very self-controlled stand-up comedians whose comedy is constructed rather than organic.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    And never any real focus on the single biggest policy mistake in summer 2020, foreign holidays. It literally turbo charged the importation of the new and far worse variant, so that it was well spread and seated across the country just in time for autumn / winter.

    We literally went so, how did we have COVID so widely first time, well it all those people went skiing and brought it back...oh, right, we should do that again, but at a time when everybody wants to go on a foreign holiday.
    No, it may have slightly sped it up, but the new variant would have spread here anyway. Once you get a very few cases in, domestic transmission dominates. It is always comforting to think you can seal yourself up but it's not realistic, and the WHO advice was spot on on this. There was basically nothing we could have done unless we'd gone full New Zealand before vaccines arrived.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited November 2023
    malcolmg said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jimmy Carr (being serious) on charm vs charisma, as shown by Obama & Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8_ulI_UlrFI

    Carr being himself it actually very interesting. He doesn't do many interviews in which he leaves the comedic act at the door.
    He’s on tour in the US at the moment, and doing loads of podcasts. The guy is a genuine comedy historian, and has loads of references of US and UK comedy from half a century ago.
    I should hope so.

    The guy is 51 himself.
    Jimmy Carr is the spiritual successor to Bob Monkhouse. Discuss.
    An arse, he could not lace Monkhouse's boots.
    "When I was a child I told everyone when I grow up I want to be a comedian, everyone laughed. No one's laughing now". Bob at his finest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited November 2023
    Fishing said:

    I see that Rishi Rich keeps getting his arse kicked over his ridiculous Eat Out to Spread Covid scheme.

    For the record, we visited two cafes. And sat outside.

    And never any real focus on the single biggest policy mistake in summer 2020, foreign holidays. It literally turbo charged the importation of the new and far worse variant, so that it was well spread and seated across the country just in time for autumn / winter.

    We literally went so, how did we have COVID so widely first time, well it all those people went skiing and brought it back...oh, right, we should do that again, but at a time when everybody wants to go on a foreign holiday.
    No, it may have slightly sped it up, but the new variant would have spread here anyway. Once you get a very few cases in, domestic transmission dominates. It is always comforting to think you can seal yourself up but it's not realistic, and the WHO advice was spot on on this. There was basically nothing we could have done unless we'd gone full New Zealand before vaccines arrived.
    It isn't that we would have avoided it. It is at that we imported it on a mass scale all across the country at the same time, making any mitigation measures pointless and tracking transmission spread impossible. And this was right in time for schools going back, which spread it further etc etc etc. It was totally unnecessary.

    This was the same argument (which is brought up at the inquiry) about why sporting events were bad idea, because people go to them from all over, they transmit it among themselves and act to spread it widely.

    So the inquiry keeps pushing the Eat out was bad (when cases were low), we shouldn't have done sporting events, but summer holidays, not even any interest in good / bad / indifferent.

    Another problem with the foreign holidays, is people have to sit in closed environment for hours, in the airport, on the plane...then they get on holiday, let their guard done, social distancing measures all out the window. And at home we were doing all the nonsense of tier system.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,138
    Has this one been done?

    Small print nasties:

    — £19b effective spending cuts
    — tax burden rising til end decade
    — fiscal drag stealth taxes raise £45b
    — half headroom comes from unlikely fuel duty rise
    — house prices to fall 4.7%
    — inflation revised up
    — biggest drop in living standards since 1950s

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1727335466800922661

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,138

    malcolmg said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jimmy Carr (being serious) on charm vs charisma, as shown by Obama & Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8_ulI_UlrFI

    Carr being himself it actually very interesting. He doesn't do many interviews in which he leaves the comedic act at the door.
    He’s on tour in the US at the moment, and doing loads of podcasts. The guy is a genuine comedy historian, and has loads of references of US and UK comedy from half a century ago.
    I should hope so.

    The guy is 51 himself.
    Jimmy Carr is the spiritual successor to Bob Monkhouse. Discuss.
    An arse, he could not lace Monkhouse's boots.
    Jimmy Carr is releasing his DVDs onto Youtube, as is Chubby Brown and no doubt other comics.
    Is it nearly Carrot in a Box season?
  • MattW said:

    Has this one been done?

    Small print nasties:

    — £19b effective spending cuts
    — tax burden rising til end decade
    — fiscal drag stealth taxes raise £45b
    — half headroom comes from unlikely fuel duty rise
    — house prices to fall 4.7%
    — inflation revised up
    — biggest drop in living standards since 1950s

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1727335466800922661

    What this years pasty tax?
  • NEW THREAD

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    viewcode said:

    malcolmg said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jimmy Carr (being serious) on charm vs charisma, as shown by Obama & Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8_ulI_UlrFI

    Carr being himself it actually very interesting. He doesn't do many interviews in which he leaves the comedic act at the door.
    He’s on tour in the US at the moment, and doing loads of podcasts. The guy is a genuine comedy historian, and has loads of references of US and UK comedy from half a century ago.
    I should hope so.

    The guy is 51 himself.
    Jimmy Carr is the spiritual successor to Bob Monkhouse. Discuss.
    An arse, he could not lace Monkhouse's boots.
    I understand the point, but they are both emotionally-distant, well-groomed, very self-controlled stand-up comedians whose comedy is constructed rather than organic.
    That is a very coherent and persuasive comment, aside from the fact it ignores the reality that whilst Monkhouse was funny, Carr is not. ;)
  • MattW said:

    Has this one been done?

    Small print nasties:

    — £19b effective spending cuts
    — tax burden rising til end decade
    — fiscal drag stealth taxes raise £45b
    — half headroom comes from unlikely fuel duty rise
    — house prices to fall 4.7%
    — inflation revised up
    — biggest drop in living standards since 1950s

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1727335466800922661

    What this years pasty tax?
    Would that it were, Mr Urquhart, would that it were.

    Pasty tax was a silly flaw in a not too unsound budget. This one's already falling apart like a suit rejected by Primark for being too shoddy. Even the NI cut, cargo cult Lawsonism as it is, might make things worse by drawing attention to all the scams funding it.

    Oh, and the long battle by well run councils to avoid bankruptcy might be over;

    Havering Council's deadline for Section 114 (council bankruptcy) has been confirmed as February 2024.

    East London's @LBofHavering currently saying only way to avoid is through massive loan (could be £20m) to bridge the gap, which needs gov. approval.


    https://twitter.com/jshmellor/status/1727273194606723348

    This is not Thurrock.
  • .

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    My son, trained in AI, with 30 years experience, has built and programmed a massive MLL in his bedroom. It hums like a jet engine 24/7. He's been training it for months. He's just called, freaked out because it has just waved at him on the screen. True.

    Why the hell is he training a large ML model on a home pc?
    It's not a home PC. It's massively more powerful.
    Anything that is taking months to train, you shouldn't be training at home.
    He's responsible. He's signed the letter with about 1000 AI experts pointing out the danger and asking for safeguards. I think he knows what he's doing.
    Oh no he has absolutely lost my respect now then. And of course these open letters mean squat.

    Nobody training ML model of any size need or should do them from home.
    I'm clueless about this, so what is the drama?
This discussion has been closed.